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Speaker 1: Hello, everybody, Welcome into the cycle. I am Ryan Warmley,

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Speaker 1: joined today as always by Mike may Or. Mayor how

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Speaker 1: are you doing?

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Speaker 2: I'm doing all right. How are you doing recovering from

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Speaker 2: your shoulder surgery? Since we talked about it last week,

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Speaker 2: we can just run it right back. Maybe we'll just

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Speaker 2: start every show this year about talking about our shoulder update.

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Speaker 1: You know, some good days of bad. I'm getting better

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Speaker 1: at sleeping. I've discovered and this is a tip for

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Speaker 1: anybody who ever has some sort of procedure where you

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Speaker 1: have to sleep in a reclined position for a long time,

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Speaker 1: which I have to do for six weeks, and as

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Speaker 1: a side sleeper that's very difficult. Rather than in my

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Speaker 1: reclined position sleeping on a pillow, I've started sleeping on

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Speaker 1: no pillow, but with a pillow like kind of right

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Speaker 1: on either side of the head, so I can almost

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Speaker 1: kind of mimic that like side sleep angle with the

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Speaker 1: face end of the pillow, but without like totally ruining

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Speaker 1: your neck because it's like you're a little below the pillow.

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Speaker 1: It's worked very well. Actually, I'm I'm surprised and very

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Speaker 1: you know, pleasantly happy with that. The results of that experiment.

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Speaker 1: Everything else is still terrible. You know. Physical therapy is

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Speaker 1: painful and still the early stages. I'm only about two

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Speaker 1: weeks a little over two weeks past the surgery, so

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Speaker 1: I've still got a long road ahead. You are like

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Speaker 1: pretty permanently out of the sling at this point for

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Speaker 1: your surgery.

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Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, I put I've been out of the sling

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Speaker 2: for like a little while. When we had our team

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Speaker 2: trip in Vegas, I put it back on for protection purposes,

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Speaker 2: which turned out to be a really smart decision because

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Speaker 2: of waitress that one of the casinos just absolutely rammed

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Speaker 2: my arm from like the worst possible direction. But since

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Speaker 2: then I've been out of the sling and working on

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Speaker 2: my range of motion, getting getting pretty good.

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Speaker 1: I had a dream like two nights ago that I

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Speaker 1: was out of the sling for some reason, out of

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Speaker 1: the house, and somebody like kind of forced me into

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Speaker 1: like a handshake, and they like yanked the arm during

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Speaker 1: the handshake, and it hurts so badly, And I actually

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Speaker 1: woke up like subconsciously a little scared of going to

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Speaker 1: physical therapy that day. It was like I was just

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Speaker 1: remembering the pain from the dream so so badly, so

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Speaker 1: hopefully that doesn't happen in real life at any point soon,

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Speaker 1: and hopefully we are the only ones who are injured

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Speaker 1: and none of the players that we're going to be

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Speaker 1: talking about today. We are talking some all blank teams.

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Speaker 1: We kind of put this out at the end of

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Speaker 1: last episode. We weren't sure what we wanted to do.

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Speaker 1: An all sleeper team and all busts team and all

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Speaker 1: you know, insert category here type of team. We came

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Speaker 1: up with three different ones. So we're going to move

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Speaker 1: a little quickly through these teams, obviously because it's only

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Speaker 1: one episode and you know, we can't dive deep into

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Speaker 1: every player across all these teams. But we have three

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Speaker 1: different categories that you and I are going to kind

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Speaker 1: of share. Are all blank teams for I would encourage

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Speaker 1: everybody listening to vote in the comments let us know

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Speaker 1: kind of which team you would prefer, which team kind

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Speaker 1: of fit the category better. If there were players that

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Speaker 1: we didn't mention that you thought would be a better

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Speaker 1: fit for some of these categories, be sure to let

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Speaker 1: us know. One of our teams is going to be

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Speaker 1: the all regression team. This can obviously be in either

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Speaker 1: direction of regression disagression to the mean. One of them

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Speaker 1: is going to be our all boom or bust team,

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Speaker 1: a popular one this time of year, and then one

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Speaker 1: of them is going to be an all my guys team,

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Speaker 1: the guys that we really are coming away with in

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Speaker 1: a lot of drafts at costs, that we really want

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Speaker 1: on our teams and want to kind of plant our

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Speaker 1: flags on this season. I do want to remind everybody too,

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Speaker 1: before we dive into our team's episode, that we have

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Speaker 1: the Fantasy Fest coming up for the baseball side of things.

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Speaker 1: That is on Wednesday, March twelfth, three pm Eastern is

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Speaker 1: when it's going to kick off. That's the Fantasy Pros

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Fest MLB edition. It's going to be a four

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Speaker 1: hour live stream packed with busts, breakouts, bold predictions to

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Speaker 1: help you crush your competition. Joey p the Welsh, Mike Mayer,

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Speaker 1: and myself will be joined by special guests like Chris Towers,

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Speaker 1: Frank Stanfel, Eric Cross, and Scott Pianowski. Elders will be

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Speaker 1: on there as well to break down the best sleepers,

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Speaker 1: rookies and more. Tune in live on the Fantasy Pro's

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel. That's the Fantasy Pros MLB YouTube channel rather

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Speaker 1: that's YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB to get

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Speaker 1: the insight you need before Draft day Mayor Are you

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Speaker 1: excited for the fest this year?

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Speaker 2: I am excited. I don't think I was part of

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Speaker 2: the fest last year. I was just kind of in

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Speaker 2: the background. So I'm excited to actually be on the

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Speaker 2: fest and join it with you for a couple hours

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Speaker 2: there at the end, we're closing things out. Fantasy closers.

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Speaker 1: We are the closers. What a day that's going to

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Speaker 1: be two With the NFL Free agency starting on the

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Speaker 1: same day as the Fest, it'll be a busy one

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Speaker 1: for the two of us. Let's dive in. You mentioned

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Speaker 1: that we're kind of the fantasy closers on that upcoming stream.

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Speaker 1: We're not going to be talking about relief pictures today.

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Speaker 1: It just felt kind of weird for all these categories,

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Speaker 1: like there's a really such thing as a boom or

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Speaker 1: bus relief picture, Like maybe there is. Feel free to

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Speaker 1: let us know in the comments if you thought there

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Speaker 1: was a good fit. It didn't seem worth diving into

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Speaker 1: that position today, given all the other names are going

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Speaker 1: to be trying to get through here in a short

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Speaker 1: period of time. We're going to start with the all

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Speaker 1: regression team, and we were talking before we started recording. Mayor,

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Speaker 1: I really struggled this in filling out all three of

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Speaker 1: our teams today, this was by far the most difficult

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Speaker 1: one for me. Just let everybody know we're doing one catcher,

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Speaker 1: one first basement, one second baseman, one shortstop, one third basement.

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Speaker 1: Just one outfielder and one starting pitcher are going to

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Speaker 1: be our lineups here. And I really I found this

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Speaker 1: one to be the most difficult one to find good

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Speaker 1: names for. So I'm going to read through all my

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Speaker 1: names will highlight kind of a couple that we want

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Speaker 1: to dive in on. You can let me know what

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Speaker 1: you think, Hey, Catcher, I have JT. Real Muto. Main

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Speaker 1: thing is I think we're going to see more power.

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Speaker 1: His barrel rate, hard hit rate weren't really down compared

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Speaker 1: to previous years, but he didn't hit twenty home runs.

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Speaker 1: Obviously there were some injury stuff. I would expect him

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Speaker 1: to get back to the twenty home run mark, even

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Speaker 1: at his aging stage of his career. He also only

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Speaker 1: stole two bases. I'm not saying he's going to get

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Speaker 1: back to that. Like fifteen to twenty steel mark, but

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Speaker 1: I would not be surprised if that number is a

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Speaker 1: little higher. Matt Olsen, not as much about the underlying data.

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Speaker 1: More just like obviously his home runs went from in

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Speaker 1: the fifties to in the twenties. I expect that to

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Speaker 1: bounce back. This is less of an underlying data and

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Speaker 1: more of a just a belief in the player. Marcus Simeon,

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Speaker 1: his babup was way lower than his career, so I

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Speaker 1: think the average is going to bounce back again, even

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Speaker 1: at kind of an aging point of his career, which

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Speaker 1: has kind of been a theme for those first few names.

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Speaker 1: Tyler Fitzgerald, that's somebody that I want to talk about

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Speaker 1: you more with. He was kind of the first name

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Speaker 1: I wrote down here. Austin Riley, similar to Matt Olson.

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Speaker 1: I'm just, you know, a believer in the player. Like

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Speaker 1: I'm not, you know, doubting. I'm not thinking this is

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Speaker 1: the new normal for him. It was just a down

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Speaker 1: year again, there was also injuries for him. I expect

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Speaker 1: to bounce back in a very very successful season next year.

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Speaker 1: Stephen Kwan, this is strictly about the power. There's no

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Speaker 1: way he hits fourteen home runs again next season. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: the batting average and stuff, you know what you're getting

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Speaker 1: from him. But even last year when he hit the

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Speaker 1: fourteen home runs, his barrel rate was the fourth percentile,

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Speaker 1: his two point six percent his hard hit rate was

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Speaker 1: in the little first percentile. Didn't get any worse than

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Speaker 1: him around Major League Baseball. Average exit velosity was only

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Speaker 1: eighty six point three miles per hour. Bat speed was

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Speaker 1: first percentile. I am absolutely looking at that fourteen homers

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Speaker 1: as a fluke and not counting on that for next year,

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Speaker 1: and then showed it to Imanaga good year. I'm just

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Speaker 1: I think if you're expecting fifteen wins and an ERA

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Speaker 1: under three next season, you're in for disappointment. He had

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Speaker 1: a very high you know, Kelly Kirby mentioned this in

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Speaker 1: his expert note on the Fantasy Pros page. His left

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Speaker 1: on base percentage was over eighty percent. There's a reason

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Speaker 1: his expected ERA was basically a half run higher than

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Speaker 1: his actual ERA. So, I mean, I'm a good picture.

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Speaker 1: I'm interested in having him on my team, But if

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Speaker 1: you're expecting that kind of ACE level stuff that we

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Speaker 1: saw last year, I think he's more of an SP

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Speaker 1: two than an SP one. So we'll dive into Fitzgerald

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Speaker 1: in the second concenter you wanted to talk about him too.

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Speaker 1: From that, just kind of quick rundown of all those names,

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Speaker 1: did anybody stand out to you that you strongly agreed

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Speaker 1: with or disagreed with?

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Speaker 2: So the first one that stood out was matt Elson

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Speaker 2: because I rostered a lot of med Elson last year,

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Speaker 2: and I remembered kind of like he started off ice cold,

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Speaker 2: and I was just people were just wondering, like, what

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Speaker 2: the heck is going on with mad Elson? So I

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Speaker 2: do think, you know, he's gonna regret. You know, I

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Speaker 2: know people are going to get mad if it was,

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Speaker 2: because there's no way I'm going to get through the

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Speaker 2: segment without saying positive aggression or negative aggression. And I

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Speaker 2: know the technical aren't real things, but I'm going to

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Speaker 2: say it anyway because it helps.

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Speaker 1: I eventually didn't say that already, I said regression in

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Speaker 1: both directions to the mean, Well.

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Speaker 2: I'm just gonna say positive regression and negative regression. You

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Speaker 2: can get people fired up. But I do think we're

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Speaker 2: going to see him, you know, regress in a positive way.

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Speaker 1: You used to be an editor, like of books still,

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Speaker 1: and you're going to use you're going to mangle the

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Speaker 1: English English language like that.

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Speaker 2: I just philosophically disagree with the fact that you can't

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Speaker 2: say positive or negative because it's just a helpful adjective.

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Speaker 2: So he was the first one that stood out real molto.

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Speaker 2: We talked, like you said, we talked before the show.

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Speaker 2: It was difficult to find players for this for this

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Speaker 2: segment because a bunch of the players I was going

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Speaker 2: through and thought that they would fit into this category.

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Speaker 2: I was like, oh, his expected stats are exactly the

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Speaker 2: same as what they ended up with, so I had to,

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Speaker 2: you know, throw out some of my priors. Tyler Fitzgerald

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Speaker 2: is someone when doing the research for this just kind

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Speaker 2: of you know, going through the different you know on

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Speaker 2: Fantasy Bros. Fangraft stad cast looking at all, like trying

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Speaker 2: to look at like contact data and expected numbers, and

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Speaker 2: he was like at the top of every list of

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Speaker 2: like you know, negative regression just because all of his

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Speaker 2: expected numbers were like so much worse than his actual numbers.

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Speaker 2: So I think he's a great pull.

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Speaker 1: He was the first name I wrote down. I told you,

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Speaker 1: I really struggled to put together this list. This position

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Speaker 1: was the one I didn't without even before I even

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Speaker 1: pulled up his Statcast page, I was like, it's obviously

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Speaker 1: Tyler Fitzgerald just from our conversations last year. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he had three hundred and forty one played appearances last

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Speaker 1: year and still had a fifteen to fifteen season. He

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Speaker 1: had fifty home runs, seventeen sole bases, a two point

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Speaker 1: eighty average. His expected batting average on statcast was two

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Speaker 1: twenty seven. It's a very wide gap and all of

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Speaker 1: the numbers, if you look at his page, it's all blue.

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Speaker 1: Expected willbucks with to batting average, spect to slug percentage, average,

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Speaker 1: exit velocity, his barrel rate, hard hit rate, Like obviously,

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Speaker 1: the strikeouts are a major concern, and it was thirty

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Speaker 1: one point seven percent k rate last year. He's not

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Speaker 1: making up for that by walking a lot. His sweet

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Speaker 1: spot rate was really high, actually the ninetieth percentile. That's

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Speaker 1: the only red on his stat Cast page. It's all blue.

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Speaker 1: Besides that, if you are drafting him, thinking you're getting

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Speaker 1: anything close to I mean, again, considering the number of

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Speaker 1: games he's played, he was at pacing for what like

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Speaker 1: a twenty five to twenty five season or something close

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Speaker 1: to that, there's just no way that's happening, and if

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Speaker 1: he's on base less, he's not getting as many stolen bases.

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Speaker 1: I don't think the power is legitimate, you know, relative

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Speaker 1: to what we saw last year. I'll be shocked if

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Speaker 1: his OPS is over eight hundred again. I just think

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Speaker 1: he is the most screaming regression candidate on the entire board.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I do want to ask you a little

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Speaker 2: bit more about your show to Imanaga regression selection, because

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Speaker 2: he's a pitcher I really like. And if you're thinking

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Speaker 2: he's going to regress in a negative way, is he

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Speaker 2: a picture you're avoiding at his ADP, which is right

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Speaker 2: around like sixty five right.

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Speaker 1: Now, I don't know that I'm avoiding it that much.

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Speaker 1: I think some of the expected regression, to whatever degree

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Speaker 1: that is the case amongst consensus, is built in a

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Speaker 1: little Like I think his ADP is like a touch

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Speaker 1: high than i'd want to be drafting him, but I

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Speaker 1: think it's it's a viable range for me. Like he

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Speaker 1: was so good last year again, like fifteen to three,

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Speaker 1: record two ninety one era just barely over a strikeout

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Speaker 1: per inning. His whip was one h two. He obviously

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Speaker 1: stayed healthy, making twenty nine starts I don't expect that level.

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Speaker 1: I don't think. And again this is part of an

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Speaker 1: effect of me struggling to find a lot of good

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Speaker 1: names for this team. I'm not saying he's gonna fall

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Speaker 1: off a cliff. I'm not saying I don't want him

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Speaker 1: on my teams. I'm saying again his expected era was,

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Speaker 1: you know, almost a full half run higher than what

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Speaker 1: we saw. I don't think he's gonna win fifteen games. Again,

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Speaker 1: there's a chance he doesn't stay healthy for the whole year.

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Speaker 1: That's hard for a starting pitcher to do. And again,

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Speaker 1: the left on base percentage is like a huge standout

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Speaker 1: number to me, eighty percent left on base. I just

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Speaker 1: think that that's going down and that's going to mean

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Speaker 1: more runs, and he's not gonna walk a lot of guys.

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Speaker 1: So I think the whip actually is still like to

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Speaker 1: be pretty low. That's one where I don't really expect

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Speaker 1: negative regression nice. So again I do. I just don't

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Speaker 1: consider him like a like I want. I would be

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Speaker 1: very content if he was my SP two on my roster,

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Speaker 1: if I had a strong SP one. But again I

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Speaker 1: think people will you can very easily look at fifteen

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Speaker 1: wins an era under three a whip basically at one

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Speaker 1: strikeout per inning. And I think you might have higher

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Speaker 1: expectations than what I'm expecting this year. So I do

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Speaker 1: think there will be regressive. There will be regression, but

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be like falling off

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Speaker 1: a cliff or anything like that.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he had a really interesting season if you look

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Speaker 2: at his splits, because he came out of the gate

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Speaker 2: firing and looked like a cy young candidate immediately, and

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Speaker 2: then it was still really good to May, and then

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Speaker 2: June he did fall off a cliff. June he had

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Speaker 2: an ERA of five point sixty seven, and he started

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Speaker 2: to wonder, what's going on here? As the league caught

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Speaker 2: up to him. Is this the regression that we knew,

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Speaker 2: you know, because we knew he wasn't going to pitch

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Speaker 2: to under a one era the entire season. But we

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Speaker 2: it's we know the bounce back is coming in the

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Speaker 2: other direction, but how far are we going? And we

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Speaker 2: yo yo, really far the other way, and so then

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Speaker 2: you wondered, you know, is this it? But then he

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Speaker 2: settled in two point five five ERA in July and

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Speaker 2: then creeped back up a little bit in August three

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Speaker 2: point six at ERA, but then finished the year really

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Speaker 2: strong one point six seven ERA. And the one thing

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Speaker 2: that surprised me a little bit while looking into his

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Speaker 2: numbers is that he actually had a lower ERA in

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Speaker 2: the second half of the year two point e three

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Speaker 2: they did in the first half after that hot start

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Speaker 2: two point nine seven, obviously ballooned by that really bad June.

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Speaker 2: But I expected to see more of like a second

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Speaker 2: half kind of like full blown regression for him, and

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Speaker 2: I didn't find it. So I was kind of pleasantly surprised,

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Speaker 2: and I looked into the dozen numbers.

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Speaker 1: He also is thirty one, so obviously we don't have

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Speaker 1: a long history of him in Major League Baseball, but

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Speaker 1: he's been pitching for a long time. Pictures in their thirties. Like,

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying he's like some huge injury risk, but

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Speaker 1: it's a small factor. In thinking about it this way, again,

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Speaker 1: I want to be really clear, I'm not like saying

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to have any Imanaga on my teams

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Speaker 1: this year.

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Speaker 2: I think you hate showed Tom. You just said it.

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Speaker 1: I think the ADP is quite reasonable. Again, it's more

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Speaker 1: it's regression from an excellent statistical season to what I

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Speaker 1: still expect to be a good statistical year from him.

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Speaker 1: If that, you know, satisfied your confusion. Not really, So

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Speaker 1: that's my team again, real muta Olsen, Semeon, Fitzgerald, Riley

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Speaker 1: Kwan and iman Aga. What is your all regression team?

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Speaker 2: So my all regression team again. I don't want to

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Speaker 2: keep repeating it, but it was difficult to put together.

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Speaker 2: I really struggled with this. I went through and filled

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Speaker 2: out the other two rosters first and then came back

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Speaker 2: to this because I was having so much trouble. Catcher

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Speaker 2: Salvador Perez we talked a little bit of you know,

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Speaker 2: not that we did the show before the show, but

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Speaker 2: we talked a little bit before the show before we

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Speaker 2: started recording. And he was a really interesting one because

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Speaker 2: I expected to find some you know, some morning signs

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Speaker 2: there in his data, and I didn't. He's actually a

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Speaker 2: candidate to regress in a good way because some of

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Speaker 2: his a lot of his expected numbers are really better.

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Speaker 2: But also he's just getting older and he's not going

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Speaker 2: to be this good forever, and so it's kind of

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Speaker 2: a I'm kind of cheating by picking Salvador Perez because

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Speaker 2: I think he can regress in any other direction. I'm

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Speaker 2: just not sure which one it's going to be. Spencer

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Speaker 2: Steer at first base, and I'll kind of go through

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Speaker 2: and just read up the list and then we can

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Speaker 2: kind of touch on some of the names. But first base,

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Speaker 2: Spencer Steer had a really weird year last year. Second

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Speaker 2: base Bryce Terrang, he kind of already had his regression.

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Speaker 2: Not saying it's another kind of you know, cheating selection,

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Speaker 2: but in the second half of last year. I was

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Speaker 2: I was essentially a borderline Bryce Terrang hater last year

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Speaker 2: because I was like calling him a cell high all

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Speaker 2: season and saying, this is not sustainable. And he still

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Speaker 2: went out and stole fifty bases, so you know, people

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Speaker 2: got what they needed out of him. But at the

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Speaker 2: plate there is there are some concerning signs there and

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Speaker 2: he already went through some of that regression second half

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Speaker 2: of last year. Shortstop Ptiko Tilvar, he has some morning

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Speaker 2: signs in his data. Third base Jake Berger I think

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Speaker 2: is in for like a bounce back year. Not that

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Speaker 2: he had like a terrible year, but he had a

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Speaker 2: weird year where he was on a bad White Side team.

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Speaker 2: I think he was on a bad Marlins team, and

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Speaker 2: it just he got off to a slow start. It

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Speaker 2: just kind of felt like a miserable year. So now

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Speaker 2: that he's on the Rangers, I could see just a

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Speaker 2: completely different kind of breakout Jake Berger year, Anthony Santanderer,

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Speaker 2: classic kind of contract year performance with the Orioles. Now

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Speaker 2: he's on the Blue Jays. Don't think you're going to

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Speaker 2: get that kind of power again this year. And then

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Speaker 2: for pitcher, i've Ronaldo Lopez, who I just don't think

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Speaker 2: is going to repeat that kind of like late career

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Speaker 2: breakout that we saw last year where he pitched you

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Speaker 2: an era under two over one hundred and thirty five

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Speaker 2: and two thirds innings when his expected numbers are all

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Speaker 2: between like almost three and almost four. And I think

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Speaker 2: he's I have to look at where his ADP is,

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Speaker 2: but I've I remember seeing him in drafts and he's

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Speaker 2: going way too high. He's right around there one fifties.

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Speaker 2: So not terrible, but still I feel like you're paying

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Speaker 2: a real pitcher price for you know, you're paying for

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Speaker 2: the twenty twenty four performance in a way that I

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Speaker 2: think is making him too have been twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: Five Santa Daer I think was largely the guy I

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Speaker 1: expect him to be just with like ten to twelve

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Speaker 1: home runs more than expected. So I'm with you, like,

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Speaker 1: he's not gonna hit forty four this year, but it

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Speaker 1: would not surprise me if he had roughly the same

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Speaker 1: seasons last year, but he hit thirty one homers instead

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Speaker 1: of forty four and was largely the same guy. So

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Speaker 1: strictly from the like crazy power levels, I agree on

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Speaker 1: the regression, I'm not sure how far he's going to

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Speaker 1: fall back everywhere else. Tarang is somebody that I wrote

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Speaker 1: down on my team expecting to feel really strongly about

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Speaker 1: that pick, and then when I kind of pulled up

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Speaker 1: his data, you already hit on this, but it in

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Speaker 1: covering the whole year, it looks very normal. But that's

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Speaker 1: kind of because the regression already kind of happened in

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Speaker 1: the second half of the season, so I didn't include

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Speaker 1: him on the team. But I think he's like a

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Speaker 1: reasonable pick for sure.

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Speaker 2: The other thing in regard, sorry not to cut you

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Speaker 2: off there, but the other important thing there, it's kind

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Speaker 2: of like it's not necessarily a regression category, but he

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Speaker 2: could potentially lose in my bats in a platoon situation

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Speaker 2: for like lefty stuff. So that's something to consider too.

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Speaker 2: You know, are you gonna be probably not gonna get

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Speaker 2: fifty stolen bases from him because if he doesn't, you know,

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Speaker 2: if his bat doesn't keep him in the lineup, you're

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Speaker 2: not gonna get those counting stats.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fair, that's fair. Tovar is somebody that I

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Speaker 1: actually have coming up on a different all blank team spoils.

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Speaker 2: Every time you say blank team, I think, like you're cursing,

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Speaker 2: like we should just bleep that out like the team.

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Speaker 1: Uh No, but that's a that's a fair U. That's

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Speaker 1: a fair reaction.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean, like I said, the two that really sit

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Speaker 1: out for me on yours with Santander just because of

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Speaker 1: what I already mentioned, and terang Pez feels like an

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Speaker 1: interesting one just because, like we know what he is

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Speaker 1: pretty definitively just given how long his careers has gone

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Speaker 1: on and how good he's been for for a large

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Speaker 1: part of that. As we've said, a bunch not not

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Speaker 1: an easy team to put together. So I really hope

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Speaker 1: everybody watching we'll kind of drop in the comments guys

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Speaker 1: that you think that we didn't mention that should have

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Speaker 1: been on this list for kind of the all regression folks,

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Speaker 1: I do want to talk to everybody about Microsoft. Microsoft

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Speaker 1: empowers visionaries with AI solutions, simplified cloud and data management,

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00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:27,679
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Speaker 1: sparking new ideas, and driving impactful change. They provide the

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432
00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:41,760
Speaker 1: expertise to say, bring it on. Visit Microsoft dot com

433
00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,840
Speaker 1: slash Challengers to learn more. All right, let's go to

434
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:48,800
Speaker 1: the all Boom or Bust team. I went first in

435
00:19:48,800 --> 00:19:50,160
Speaker 1: the last one, so I'll let you go first. Here.

436
00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:53,400
Speaker 2: Really threw me off there, I was still admiring your

437
00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:59,080
Speaker 2: Microsoft ad read So for me, which one is this

438
00:19:59,200 --> 00:20:02,320
Speaker 2: all boom or bust? So this was easier to put

439
00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:04,040
Speaker 2: together than the regression team. And I think there are

440
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:06,959
Speaker 2: some really interesting cases to be made here, and some

441
00:20:07,000 --> 00:20:09,560
Speaker 2: of them are kind of ADP dependent, you know, Boom

442
00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,119
Speaker 2: or busts can kind of largely depend on the ADP

443
00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:14,760
Speaker 2: or could it just depend on the kind of year

444
00:20:14,760 --> 00:20:16,720
Speaker 2: they're going to have, because they can really make or

445
00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:19,879
Speaker 2: break your year. A catcher I have cal Raley, I

446
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,639
Speaker 2: did kind of want to use your catcher, but you

447
00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:25,119
Speaker 2: got to the sheet first, so you have the catcher

448
00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 2: I would have selected, who not quite at the price

449
00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,399
Speaker 2: terrange levels, but I am kind of an anti that person.

450
00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:35,160
Speaker 2: Not going to spoil his name, but cal Raley's he's

451
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 2: the kind of catcher where you're drafting him for his power, right,

452
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:41,439
Speaker 2: and you're going to get that low batting average. But

453
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:45,400
Speaker 2: sometimes I wonder if there is some because he's he's

454
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:47,320
Speaker 2: kind of being drafted now that he's being drafted high.

455
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:49,240
Speaker 2: He's being drafted high like in terms of a catcher,

456
00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:53,960
Speaker 2: and it can kind of worry me that you're already

457
00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:55,440
Speaker 2: like going into it being all right, I know we're

458
00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:57,040
Speaker 2: going to get a low batting average, but I'm going

459
00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,000
Speaker 2: to get that power. What if the batting average goes

460
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 2: even lower and then that can start to impact some

461
00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:04,840
Speaker 2: of that power. So I do think there's kind of

462
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 2: like a razor's edge there where there is some bus

463
00:21:06,840 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 2: potential in cal Raley.

464
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 1: What's his ADP right now? I'm pulling it up.

465
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 2: I just clicked off the page.

466
00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 1: But let's say seventy nine.

467
00:21:13,680 --> 00:21:16,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, seventy nine catcher four. So if the fourth catcher

468
00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:18,040
Speaker 2: off the board, which is kind of a high price

469
00:21:18,080 --> 00:21:20,720
Speaker 2: to pay for a guy, that might that like two fifteen,

470
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 2: especially if you look at someone like Shay. I can

471
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:27,320
Speaker 2: never say his name of Shay Langaliers. Does that say

472
00:21:27,320 --> 00:21:27,920
Speaker 2: his last name?

473
00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,280
Speaker 1: That's correct. I think that's correct at least. Yeah, I've

474
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:31,280
Speaker 1: never heard it another way.

475
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:35,119
Speaker 2: He's going one point thirty five, catch your eight and

476
00:21:35,160 --> 00:21:38,680
Speaker 2: you might get the same numbers from him where you

477
00:21:38,720 --> 00:21:40,560
Speaker 2: don't have to pay up that for that cal Raley price.

478
00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 2: So I do think there's like if you're looking at

479
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,280
Speaker 2: adp and the bus potential. There not saying that I

480
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:48,879
Speaker 2: don't like cal Raley. I actually well, I tried to

481
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:52,479
Speaker 2: draft him in a salary cap league last night. There

482
00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 2: were some technical difficulties where my bid didn't go through.

483
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 2: So I'll fight that in the fight that in the

484
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,200
Speaker 2: comments section for another days on the Red Sox is

485
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:04,639
Speaker 2: a fascinating one. Like boomer bus potential, it feels like

486
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 2: we've been projecting his ceiling for a long time and

487
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:08,959
Speaker 2: he's kind of you know, we're still waiting for it.

488
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 2: If it hits this year, you could get thirty plus

489
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:13,760
Speaker 2: horme runs out of him, or it might just be

490
00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:15,800
Speaker 2: like a position you're streaming because it's.

491
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 1: Just if we did a My Guys team last year,

492
00:22:19,520 --> 00:22:22,159
Speaker 1: Justin Cassis would have been like during draft season, my

493
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,400
Speaker 1: first baseman. I was very in on him last year.

494
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:28,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, also kind of a weird dude, which I didn't

495
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,880
Speaker 2: realize until like this past year, Like just the comments

496
00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,239
Speaker 2: he makes. Kind of a weird guy. Second base, your

497
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 2: boy Jackson Holliday. We already kind of talked about him

498
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 2: last week, But like major boomer bus potential there, maybe

499
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,360
Speaker 2: not like the biggest bus potential, just because the price

500
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:43,840
Speaker 2: isn't there. He's kind of going late enough where like

501
00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 2: if you draft Jackson Holiday, he doesn't hit like you're

502
00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:49,119
Speaker 2: probably gonna survive that miss. So probably more of a

503
00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:53,199
Speaker 2: boom guy. Much different O'Neal Cruise. I think there's some

504
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 2: real bus potential there. Not that I don't like O'Neal cruise.

505
00:22:56,080 --> 00:22:58,280
Speaker 2: I do really like O'Neal Cruise, but for the price there,

506
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 2: I think there's some bus potential. Junior Camenaro is a

507
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,800
Speaker 2: favorite bust player for me, just because I kind of

508
00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:09,439
Speaker 2: get worried when a lot of a player's production is

509
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 2: Not that I hate on young players, but we're really

510
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,160
Speaker 2: projecting out a lot of his stuff that we haven't

511
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 2: seen before, and we're saying like, oh, like you should

512
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:17,639
Speaker 2: get like this kind of production from him, and we

513
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,679
Speaker 2: just like, I'm not sure that we are. And his ADP,

514
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 2: we can click over to that right now. His ADP

515
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:27,800
Speaker 2: I seeing in drafts is pretty expensive. He's inside the

516
00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 2: top one hundred.

517
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 1: He's ninety fifth on Fantasy Pro's data right now.

518
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he's all the way up to eighty two

519
00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 2: on NFBC, which is kind of like we're a lot

520
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:40,199
Speaker 2: of like sharp high stakes managers draft and that's just

521
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 2: too expensive for a relative unknown a player I talked

522
00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:48,080
Speaker 2: about two weeks ago with Kelly Jason Dominguez. Jason, if

523
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 2: you prefer to pronounce it how it's spelled, I think

524
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:55,000
Speaker 2: he's pretty inexpensive. He's more of in the Jackson Holliday

525
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:58,359
Speaker 2: of more boom than bus just because he's going outside

526
00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,400
Speaker 2: of the top one forty, and I think you can

527
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 2: get some real boom potential there with his production in

528
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:08,760
Speaker 2: that lineup in that stadium, and then a wild card

529
00:24:08,800 --> 00:24:12,640
Speaker 2: one Jacob to Groam. We might get a really interesting

530
00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:13,960
Speaker 2: season at Jacob de Groamd.

531
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:15,240
Speaker 1: Or might just be more Gram's ADP.

532
00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 2: Right now, Let's look, I.

533
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,800
Speaker 1: Know, I don't even I couldn't even hazard a guess.

534
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:23,640
Speaker 2: Why don't you guess?

535
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:28,879
Speaker 1: I don't know. I actually like I have I like

536
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 1: I I know I'm a stammer around. I actually don't know, like.

537
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 2: I guessed.

538
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 1: You could say any number and I'll be like, yeah,

539
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:37,200
Speaker 1: I get it.

540
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:41,160
Speaker 2: Well, I wasn't sure what I would have guessed without

541
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 2: looking it up. I probably would have guess like seventy five, eighty, But.

542
00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:47,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, but my initial response you asked that question was

543
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 1: like eighty to ninety. But maybe that's more efflective of

544
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:51,160
Speaker 1: how I view him.

545
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:54,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, fifty four all the way up to forty four

546
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 2: on NFBC forty four.

547
00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,920
Speaker 1: I mean, it's wild, no chance of no chance am

548
00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:04,119
Speaker 1: I taking him in the fourth round of a draft?

549
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 2: Well, you've seen where Joe are you know a friend

550
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 2: of the pod who's on the other you know, the

551
00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:11,040
Speaker 2: other half of this pod. I see where Joe Rico

552
00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 2: has him ranked right of starting pictures number one.

553
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:20,959
Speaker 1: It's I did not see that. Oh my gosh, why,

554
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 1: I don't know.

555
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:23,160
Speaker 2: He's getting a lot of hate for it, but he's

556
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 2: not backing down, but he's going all in on Jacob

557
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 2: to Grama.

558
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:33,040
Speaker 1: Like maybe maybe this is like a Chris Sale experience

559
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 1: where he's great, but nobody trusts him to stay healthy

560
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,399
Speaker 1: and then he has a healthy year and shows it.

561
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 1: But like, especially at this position, guys don't get healthier

562
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 1: as they get older typically, and de gram is thirty six.

563
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:52,080
Speaker 1: Now he only started three games last year. Like, I

564
00:25:52,119 --> 00:25:54,679
Speaker 1: know he's really good when healthy, but there is just

565
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 1: a zero percent Like, what would you put the percentage

566
00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:00,199
Speaker 1: chance that he has a healthy year this year? Like

567
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 1: what if you had to put a number on your

568
00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 1: confidence level that he stays healthy for the full season?

569
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:06,439
Speaker 1: What is it?

570
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:12,600
Speaker 2: I mean, they're already talking about workload stuff. You maybe

571
00:26:12,640 --> 00:26:14,639
Speaker 2: you could say, hey, he's fresh, he hasn't pitched in

572
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 2: the last two years. He's thrown forty innings the last

573
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:21,800
Speaker 2: two years combined, basically, and then it's just you know,

574
00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:25,200
Speaker 2: we kind of killed on leading off. I want to say,

575
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,440
Speaker 2: like four or five years ago, we killed Joe Pisapia

576
00:26:28,480 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 2: because he talked about making Jacob Degram like a closer,

577
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 2: and this was when he was like, you know, not

578
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 2: to not too far from like several two hundred inning

579
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:42,919
Speaker 2: over two hundred thirty strikeout seasons in a row, but

580
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:44,879
Speaker 2: he kind of when we started kind of seeing the

581
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:46,320
Speaker 2: injuries and he's like, I think we just need to

582
00:26:46,320 --> 00:26:49,119
Speaker 2: make this guy a reliever. And he just like hasn't

583
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 2: pitched any innings since he said that, and it's kind

584
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 2: of like maybe this is where we're headed.

585
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 1: He hasn't had a one hundred inning season since twenty nineteen. Yeah,

586
00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:01,440
Speaker 1: what I know, twenty twenty obviously different scenario with COVID,

587
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 1: but like four straight years his innings totals and they've

588
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:06,879
Speaker 1: gone down every year. This is from twenty twenty one

589
00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:10,160
Speaker 1: to twenty twenty four, ninety two innings, sixty four innings,

590
00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:14,199
Speaker 1: thirty innings, ten innings. Like that's not a trend you

591
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,600
Speaker 1: want for a picture in his mid to late thirties.

592
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 1: I listen, if I'm wrong, I'll actually be really happy

593
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 1: because I love watching a good, healthy Jacob de Grob,

594
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,479
Speaker 1: Like I would be thrilled to be wrong, but I

595
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:30,360
Speaker 1: like when I said eighty to ninety would have been

596
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:33,959
Speaker 1: my guest on an ADP that is even an area

597
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:38,080
Speaker 1: I would not be comfortable in to be in the

598
00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,640
Speaker 1: fourth or fifth round, there's just a zero percent chance

599
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:43,720
Speaker 1: I'm taking I actually thought of de Grom for this

600
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 1: team putting together my lineup, and I didn't actually look

601
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,879
Speaker 1: up his ADP, and apparently I should have because I

602
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 1: said to myself, well, he's gonna be going too late

603
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 1: to really count as like a bust. And that's that's

604
00:27:56,480 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 1: incorrect given what you've just told me here, I am

605
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 1: shocked by that.

606
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:06,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, at around the fifty, there's there's no chance I'm

607
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:08,359
Speaker 2: drafting Jacob to Gram even though, like you said, like

608
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:10,360
Speaker 2: when we've seen him be the best picture of baseball,

609
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:13,120
Speaker 2: but we haven't seen him do that in a long time.

610
00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 1: I I'm really stunned by that. Honestly, where do you

611
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:20,720
Speaker 1: have a ranked amongst pictures?

612
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:27,359
Speaker 2: Let me see, I have him at ten, I have

613
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:31,640
Speaker 2: SP ten, and even that I feel as aggressive. I Yeah,

614
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:36,200
Speaker 2: when you're talking to a very accurate Fantasy Baseball ranker dude.

615
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 1: In ECR, he's SP eighteen, which is one spot ahead

616
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 1: of showed at YMANA would rather have him or showed

617
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 1: at you Monaga I'd rather have you, Benoga.

618
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 2: If I'm going to stay true to my rankings, I'd

619
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 2: rather have to Gram. But I also I'm not I'm

620
00:28:51,880 --> 00:28:53,959
Speaker 2: not so sure that, you know, I'm kind of projecting

621
00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 2: out where I think the value is going to be,

622
00:28:56,160 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 2: and ten feels aggressive, especially since, like the last couple days,

623
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 2: we've kind of heard some workload, you know, concerns, not concerns,

624
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 2: but like some plans like oh, we're gonna start him

625
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 2: at the end of the rotation. We're probably gonna give

626
00:29:07,640 --> 00:29:09,920
Speaker 2: him some breaks. You know, that probably drops him down

627
00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 2: because you need that.

628
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 1: I feel like I would. I feel like I'm not

629
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 1: I don't even want to give him like a fifteen

630
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 1: percent chance of finishing the season healthy. Like, I just

631
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 1: don't think it's I think it's extraordinarily unlikely that he

632
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 1: has a healthy season.

633
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:24,560
Speaker 2: Even his projections are all over the place. They're between

634
00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:30,680
Speaker 2: fifty one innings, another has one, ten, one thirty, and

635
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 2: then the highest steamer has them the highest at one

636
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 2: fifty two, one hundred fifty two innings, two hundred and

637
00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 2: six strikeouts. That would be a wildly successful season for

638
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 2: de Groun. He will not be on a single one

639
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 2: of my teams. If his ADP s there's what it is,

640
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:45,160
Speaker 2: he will not be on a single team of mine. No,

641
00:29:45,880 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 2: there's just no way.

642
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 1: Like, Yeah, there are other names, and in fact we'll

643
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 1: get to my team because one of the names I

644
00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 1: would like equate my confidence level of him staying healthy

645
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 1: at is Mike Trout, a guy we've talked about on

646
00:29:57,000 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 1: the show before as and he is on my Boomer

647
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 1: Buzz team as my outfielder, but just a guy like

648
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 1: who when he's healthy and playing. Yes, I still very

649
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:10,280
Speaker 1: much believe him, but I am really stunned that people

650
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 1: are that much of a believer in him saying healthy,

651
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 1: especially at that position. All Right, so my team I

652
00:30:15,920 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 1: mentioned Mike Trott is my outfielder. We've talked about him

653
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 1: on the show a bit already, but and I'm sure

654
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 1: you probably would have considered him if I hadn't kind

655
00:30:23,920 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 1: of taken him at the outfielder spot already.

656
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:28,840
Speaker 2: I did, But I also used him for another team

657
00:30:29,120 --> 00:30:29,600
Speaker 2: another one.

658
00:30:29,720 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, cerctly a health thing obviously, second short, and third,

659
00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 1: I actually considered Jackson Holliday, O'Neil Cruz, and Junior Cameron Era.

660
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:39,600
Speaker 1: So I'm like total lockstep with your picks there. I

661
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 1: ended up going with Royce Lewis at third, another one

662
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:45,400
Speaker 1: that's like very much health based obviously, like had some

663
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 1: really like awesome stretches last year of extreme production and

664
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:51,920
Speaker 1: when he was actually healthy, but he ended up only

665
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 1: playing eighty two games last year. In those games he

666
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 1: had sixteen homers. You know, the average was way down.

667
00:30:57,800 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 1: I expect that to come up again to his bapit

668
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:03,120
Speaker 1: was much lower than his kind of career line. As

669
00:31:03,200 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 1: you know. In twenty twenty two as batit was three

670
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 1: or three, and twenty twenty three it was three fifty four.

671
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 1: Last year was two fifty one, and that was kind

672
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,840
Speaker 1: of reflected in the batting average. The power I think

673
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 1: is very legitimate when he's on the field. So if

674
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 1: he stays healthy, that Royce Lewis is a great pick.

675
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 1: And by the way, his ADP outside the top one hundred,

676
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,959
Speaker 1: but could also be totally terrible because of injuries. So well,

677
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 1: see what happens there. You already talked about about Ezekiel

678
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 1: Tovar in terms of the regression candidates. I have him

679
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 1: in the boom er bust category, but basically for largely

680
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 1: the same kind of ideas that you had thrown out

681
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 1: there when talking about him as a regression candidate. He

682
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 1: is a very good fielder, so he is going to

683
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 1: get opportunities like he will be on, you know, in

684
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 1: the lineup and playing a lot, which is nice for

685
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 1: somebody who is maybe inconsistent in other areas. I had

686
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 1: him on a team last year, a points League team

687
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 1: that just he had some weeks where he absolutely won

688
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 1: me the week, and he had the leagues where he

689
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 1: absolutely lost it for me. And you know, we'll see

690
00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 1: if there's more of the same. But at the same time,

691
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:02,520
Speaker 1: you know, I had twenty six homers last year. I

692
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:04,480
Speaker 1: think that he can get more steals than the six

693
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:07,040
Speaker 1: he had last year. So I think he's a He's

694
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 1: a decent boom or bus candidate. His ADP's even lower.

695
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 1: It's at one thirty one, so not a ton of

696
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:15,880
Speaker 1: risk there. Zach Gehloff ADP way low, similar to Jackson Holliday.

697
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:17,600
Speaker 1: I wanted to just kind of throw him out there

698
00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 1: as a guy who could maybe be a boom candidate

699
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 1: for you. Really strong partial season in twenty twenty three,

700
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 1: much worse last year. But having said that, dude had

701
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:31,719
Speaker 1: a two to eleven batting average, was absolutely awful and

702
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 1: totally unplayable in fantasy for large portions of the year.

703
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 1: He stilled seventeen home runs and twenty five stolen bases

704
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 1: in what felt largely to me like a worst case

705
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,640
Speaker 1: scenario type of season, at least just kind of the

706
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 1: vibes felt like a worst case scenario season, and he

707
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 1: went seventeen to twenty five as a power speed combo.

708
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 1: So if he gets the batting average back up to

709
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 1: even just like two forty two fifty, I think there's

710
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 1: room for, you know, maybe close to a twenty thirty

711
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:01,480
Speaker 1: season in a boom. But that's why he's boom or bust,

712
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 1: because it could not work out. Gody Bellinger just the

713
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:06,479
Speaker 1: guy that I've had many teams over the years, has

714
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 1: had some really awesome years, had some really bad ones.

715
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 1: I'm very excited about his fit in Yankee Stadium as

716
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 1: a lefty. I think there's a chance that he has

717
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 1: a not the most homers he's ever had in a year,

718
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:20,400
Speaker 1: because he's obviously had some some pretty awesome years several

719
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:21,960
Speaker 1: years ago, but I think he could have a really

720
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:26,080
Speaker 1: nice year in that lineup and that in that ballpark.

721
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 1: And then Francisco Alvarez a catcher. You mentioned him. You

722
00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 1: didn't mention him, but you said that I kind of

723
00:33:30,640 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 1: picked the catcher you would have considered. Obviously, the pedigree

724
00:33:33,480 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 1: is there for Alvarez, given you know, he's been a

725
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 1: top orall prospect in baseball at one point by some publications.

726
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:42,840
Speaker 1: Has not put it together. Certainly, I think he's gonna

727
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 1: hit more than eleven home runs this season. I think

728
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 1: that's I don't think that's a number that we're going

729
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:49,240
Speaker 1: to see repeat. He had twenty five the year before

730
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 1: in one hundred and twenty three games, and that was

731
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 1: with a two nine average. Last year as average was higher,

732
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 1: but the home runs were still way down. I think

733
00:33:56,240 --> 00:34:00,600
Speaker 1: that there is a chance he finishes as the best

734
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 1: catcher in fantasy, but again ADP way lower. So kind

735
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:06,400
Speaker 1: of a boomer bus because there's a chance where he's

736
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:09,080
Speaker 1: completely unplayable and he's on waivers all year long, and

737
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:12,919
Speaker 1: then last days starting pitcher Chris Sale kind of what

738
00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,239
Speaker 1: the best case scenario is ru de Grab Like I

739
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 1: mentioned somebody who, if healthy, was I mean clearly awesome

740
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:23,840
Speaker 1: last year Cy Young's season. I'm not going to be

741
00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 1: super excited to bet on a repeat of the health

742
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:32,319
Speaker 1: just given his history and age at this point. So

743
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 1: I think he's a pretty clear boomer bus candidate because

744
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 1: if he does repeat last year, then you know, he's

745
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:41,000
Speaker 1: the type of guy who could kind of continue to

746
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 1: be a league winner, type of a picked away he

747
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 1: was last year. Obviously, the ADP much higher this year

748
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,319
Speaker 1: than last year, but still if he repeats what he

749
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 1: did last year, even at ADP of thirty seven, like

750
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:54,799
Speaker 1: that's extraordinarily valuable, but also could very easily, you know,

751
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 1: miss five months with injuries. So that's the team I

752
00:34:58,400 --> 00:35:00,240
Speaker 1: put out there. Which you think of the guys I picked.

753
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 2: Well, I was interested. I was interested by a lot

754
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:04,799
Speaker 2: of them. Zach Geloff is a wild one because I

755
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 2: wanted to look this up once I saw his name,

756
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 2: because I saw a ton of Zach Geloff last year,

757
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 2: because he was like a very popular, like not quite

758
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 2: a sleeper pick, but like a quote unquote sleeper pick

759
00:35:15,080 --> 00:35:18,839
Speaker 2: last year. His ADP's he's going one hundred picks later

760
00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 2: this year then he went last year. He's going right

761
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:22,399
Speaker 2: around two thirty, and he was at like one thirty

762
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 2: one forty last year. So he's like the definition of

763
00:35:25,239 --> 00:35:27,680
Speaker 2: like post hype sleeper it's like ken he bounced back

764
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:29,880
Speaker 2: because there was a lot of hype last.

765
00:35:29,719 --> 00:35:31,560
Speaker 1: Year, Christy and I want to just clearly speak on

766
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 1: that before we get to the other names. I don't

767
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 1: when I'm picking a boomer Bus player, I'm not saying

768
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 1: necessarily that this is a player that like this is

769
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 1: not an all sleeper team. I'm not saying you should

770
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:43,880
Speaker 1: go out and be drafting him in that he's this

771
00:35:43,960 --> 00:35:47,719
Speaker 1: huge value, Like he's not on my guy's list right,

772
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:49,840
Speaker 1: Like I'm not planting my flag on Gealoff, but I

773
00:35:49,880 --> 00:35:52,880
Speaker 1: think he fits the definition in terms of if he

774
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 1: like in twenty twenty three, in three hundred played appearances,

775
00:35:56,960 --> 00:35:59,280
Speaker 1: he had fourteen homers, fourteen soon bases of two sixty

776
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:03,040
Speaker 1: seven average at a difficult position like second base, and

777
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 1: a lot of that stuff was fairly similar last year

778
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,400
Speaker 1: outside of the batting average, which is terrible. And by

779
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 1: the way, his expected batting average is even worse than

780
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:15,919
Speaker 1: his batting average last year. So I like he could

781
00:36:15,960 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 1: bust in the sense of like he is completely unrosterable,

782
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 1: and maybe that's even how you view him going into

783
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 1: the season. But again, horrible situation last year and he

784
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:28,840
Speaker 1: had seventeen home runs and twenty five sold bases, So

785
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 1: maybe the floor in a categories league is a little

786
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 1: higher than you might think, and the boom potential is there.

787
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 1: So that's I'm not planning a flag on him, but

788
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 1: at cost he could easily boom.

789
00:36:43,239 --> 00:36:45,840
Speaker 2: Yeah. The thing I wanted to mention with Chrissale that

790
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:48,759
Speaker 2: kind of like terrifies me is that based on how

791
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:51,800
Speaker 2: last year went, you're you're basically paying his ceiling, like

792
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 2: you're drafting him at his ceiling, which I don't want

793
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:56,919
Speaker 2: to do for a picture as volatile as Chris Sales,

794
00:36:56,960 --> 00:36:59,000
Speaker 2: we've seen like when he's on the mound has been

795
00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:00,360
Speaker 2: really good, but he's also I had a lot of

796
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:02,680
Speaker 2: trouble staying healthy over the years. He's not young anymore.

797
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:07,400
Speaker 2: And the thing I always try to avoid is and

798
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 2: this is something you talk about with like signing like

799
00:37:09,480 --> 00:37:12,840
Speaker 2: contracts to players. To a lot of fans of teams

800
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 2: think like, oh, this guy just had a great year,

801
00:37:14,560 --> 00:37:16,399
Speaker 2: you have to reward him with this contract. But that's

802
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:19,400
Speaker 2: not how contracts work. Contracts are not a reward for

803
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:23,560
Speaker 2: past performance. They're a projection of future performance. And so

804
00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 2: I don't want to draft Chris Sale based on his history.

805
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 2: I want to draft him based on how he's going

806
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:30,319
Speaker 2: to produce this year, and he's being priced at his

807
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 2: ceiling and so I'm probably not going to have many

808
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 2: Chrissale shares because I'd rather wait at that point and not.

809
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:38,720
Speaker 2: You know, he's going at SP eight if not higher,

810
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,479
Speaker 2: and inside the top forty, and that's just a really

811
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:44,360
Speaker 2: expensive price to pay for Chrisale this year.

812
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 1: It is an expensive price. And I don't know that

813
00:37:46,120 --> 00:37:47,400
Speaker 1: I'm going to have a bunch of him. But I

814
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 1: do still think he qualifies for the category though, right,

815
00:37:50,000 --> 00:37:51,960
Speaker 1: because he could easily bust if that's.

816
00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 2: What I mean. Yeah, Like, I think he's more in

817
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:56,840
Speaker 2: the bus category because you're basically paying the boom price.

818
00:37:57,120 --> 00:37:59,360
Speaker 2: And if you don't get that, like he's.

819
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:01,040
Speaker 1: I actually don't know that I agree with that because

820
00:38:01,080 --> 00:38:04,720
Speaker 1: if he repeats last year, that's a guy I would

821
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:06,920
Speaker 1: if you told me, like guaranteed he is having the

822
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:09,600
Speaker 1: same year this year that he did last year, I'd

823
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:12,719
Speaker 1: take him in the first round. Not, you know, Like,

824
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:15,839
Speaker 1: I do think there's value you can get back if

825
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:17,560
Speaker 1: he repeats what he did last year. How likely is

826
00:38:17,560 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 1: he to repeat last year? You know, probably not very likely,

827
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:24,879
Speaker 1: given everything but I think there is boom potential here,

828
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:28,399
Speaker 1: even going at the top of the fourth round back

829
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 1: into the third round, which is where his ADP is

830
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 1: right now.

831
00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 2: He was SP three.

832
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:33,240
Speaker 1: How good was last.

833
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:35,160
Speaker 2: Year in terms of VBR? Last year he finished as

834
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:37,920
Speaker 2: SP three it was schooble wheeler and then sale.

835
00:38:37,920 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, dude, is awesome. Anything else in the boom or bust?

836
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 2: The other thing we can we can wrap up with

837
00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 2: this one is the we already mentioned Exegil Tovar a

838
00:38:46,719 --> 00:38:49,120
Speaker 2: few times, but he like his expected numbers are a

839
00:38:49,160 --> 00:38:51,800
Speaker 2: little concerning two sixty nine average, expected batting average of

840
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 2: two thirty three. And then the really worrying one for me.

841
00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:56,279
Speaker 2: I don't know about you, but I'm a wOBA guy.

842
00:38:56,880 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 2: I like looking at wOBA. It's kind of like a

843
00:38:58,680 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 2: new or.

844
00:38:59,080 --> 00:38:59,920
Speaker 1: Always said that about you.

845
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:05,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, everybody knows I'm a big woebook guy. But you

846
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:10,600
Speaker 2: love x wOBA Khan that's your real Yeah, sure, it's

847
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 2: it's kind of a newer metric over the last few years.

848
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:14,759
Speaker 2: A lot of you know, kind of like newer or

849
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:16,880
Speaker 2: more casual fantasy managers probably don't pay attention to it,

850
00:39:16,920 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 2: but it's a really good indicator of like not you know,

851
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 2: like it's quality of contact as opposed to just like

852
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:25,480
Speaker 2: straight up contact. And his ex WEBBA was three twenty four,

853
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:27,760
Speaker 2: which is a little bit above or his regular WHOBBA

854
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:29,399
Speaker 2: is three twenty four, which is a little bit above

855
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:32,000
Speaker 2: league average, but his XLOBBO was two eenty nine, which

856
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:34,680
Speaker 2: is well below league average. The league average is I

857
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:39,160
Speaker 2: believe like three ten three ten. So his actual whobbo above,

858
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:42,080
Speaker 2: but expected well below. And when you start, you know,

859
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:45,320
Speaker 2: looking at his his you know, counting numbers, you have

860
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:48,400
Speaker 2: two under strikeouts, and his quality of contact seemed a

861
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:51,279
Speaker 2: little bit fake or inflated, you might say. And so

862
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:54,719
Speaker 2: there are some concerns there that you know, some of

863
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:56,879
Speaker 2: that production could regress what.

864
00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:59,440
Speaker 1: Are our mind everybody about our draft simulator. You can

865
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:02,440
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866
00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:06,360
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867
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:09,440
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868
00:40:09,520 --> 00:40:13,960
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869
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:17,200
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870
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:21,120
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871
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:25,359
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872
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:27,960
Speaker 1: All right, time for the all my guys team. The

873
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:30,240
Speaker 1: guys we are you know, you can say you're planting

874
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:32,960
Speaker 1: your flag on them, just the guys that you really

875
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 1: are very interested in at cost this year. So I'll

876
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 1: go first on this one. At catcher, I have Adley Ruschman,

877
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 1: who obviously is ranked highly at the position. There aren't

878
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:43,560
Speaker 1: a ton of guys not ranked highly that I'm that

879
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:47,800
Speaker 1: interested in, and I am buying into a top catcher

880
00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:50,320
Speaker 1: in baseball type of year. He was hurt in the

881
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 1: second half of last year, even though it was kind

882
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:54,799
Speaker 1: of underreported during the season. He had been hitting the

883
00:40:55,160 --> 00:40:57,239
Speaker 1: hand or the wrist by a pitch, and I think

884
00:40:57,280 --> 00:40:59,560
Speaker 1: it really did affect him. He's still going to be

885
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:01,880
Speaker 1: batting that like two or three spot in what I

886
00:41:01,920 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 1: expect to be a good lineup. He's looked good kind

887
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 1: of starts spring training. I don't know what his stats say,

888
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:08,279
Speaker 1: but just in kind of watching some of the clips,

889
00:41:08,320 --> 00:41:10,800
Speaker 1: he kind of looks quote unquote back. He's at a

890
00:41:10,880 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 1: right age that I think he can still take another forward.

891
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 1: I think this is kind of like the ad Ley

892
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:18,719
Speaker 1: year and where he's going in drafts. I'm still very

893
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:22,000
Speaker 1: like comfortable taking him as my catcher at first base.

894
00:41:22,080 --> 00:41:24,439
Speaker 1: Cody Balingeryard explained kind of why he's a boomer bust.

895
00:41:24,480 --> 00:41:28,320
Speaker 1: I'm just buying in on him. In New York, Jordan Westburg.

896
00:41:28,320 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 1: I actually really was torn on him versus the guy

897
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 1: I picked at third base in this all my guys team,

898
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:36,719
Speaker 1: and then I thought to myself, well, wait a minute,

899
00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:39,120
Speaker 1: Wesburg's eligible a second, so I'll just throw him in there,

900
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:41,479
Speaker 1: a tough position to fill. I just think he's gonna

901
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:43,600
Speaker 1: be a really reliable guy this year. Prior to getting

902
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:45,440
Speaker 1: hurt last year, he was awesome. He only played one

903
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:48,919
Speaker 1: hundred and seven games before he suffered an injury, and

904
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:51,440
Speaker 1: he had eighteen home runs. I kind of think the

905
00:41:51,440 --> 00:41:53,359
Speaker 1: Oriels might run a little more this year. He only

906
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:55,239
Speaker 1: had six tolen bases. I'm not expecting a lot, but

907
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:57,080
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if you got to like ten

908
00:41:57,440 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 1: and like a twenty five home run season. The batting,

909
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 1: I think it's gonna consistently be in that like two

910
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:05,160
Speaker 1: sixty to two eighty range. He's in a good lineup.

911
00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 1: I don't know where he's gonna bat in the lineup.

912
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:09,360
Speaker 1: I'm actually kind of really curious to see what the

913
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 1: Orioles do Besides Gunner and Adli, I'm pretty much uncertain

914
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 1: where anybody else is gonna be in that order now

915
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,879
Speaker 1: that Santandera's gone, but Westbrook will be near the top

916
00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:19,320
Speaker 1: of it. I just think he's a really good player.

917
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:22,319
Speaker 2: I've seen clean I've seen clean up. That would be cool.

918
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,080
Speaker 1: I don't know that he's gonna be hitting clean up.

919
00:42:24,160 --> 00:42:25,759
Speaker 1: I'll put it like this, Maybe he will, but I'll

920
00:42:25,760 --> 00:42:29,960
Speaker 1: be surprised. I wouldn't hate him hitting second, honestly, behind

921
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:33,160
Speaker 1: Gunner and ahead of Adlie. Uh. We'll see if Holliday

922
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:35,879
Speaker 1: takes the lead. Maybe he's in kind of that top

923
00:42:36,200 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 1: of the lineup range and you move some of the

924
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 1: other guys down, But he'll be in the top five

925
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:41,440
Speaker 1: of the lineup in what I expect to be a

926
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:44,319
Speaker 1: strong lineup. I think so I like Westbroog a lot

927
00:42:44,320 --> 00:42:46,960
Speaker 1: this year. Boba Schett, somebody who's obviously coming off a

928
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:50,480
Speaker 1: terrible season relative to will we'd seed in the past.

929
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 1: You know, obviously there were some injury stuff. Only played

930
00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:55,279
Speaker 1: eighty one games, batting average two twenty five, just like

931
00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:58,400
Speaker 1: an abysmal year all around. I'm gonna be willing to

932
00:42:58,440 --> 00:43:00,839
Speaker 1: write that off given the talent. He's still only twenty

933
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:04,239
Speaker 1: seven years old. His ADP's won twenty six. Like if

934
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 1: I'm not getting an elite shortstop, he's somebody that I'm

935
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 1: willing to kind of take a swing on a bounce

936
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 1: back year and say, listen, it was his BABIT in

937
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:15,600
Speaker 1: his career has been above three thirty nine every single season.

938
00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:18,440
Speaker 1: Last year was two sixty nine. Again, just kind of

939
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 1: the season season from hell. I would expect bounce back

940
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:23,600
Speaker 1: from him, and at that cost, I'm very willing to

941
00:43:23,600 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 1: take a chance on the elite upside. Bregman is the

942
00:43:25,680 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 1: guy I end up going with at third base. I

943
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:32,280
Speaker 1: think he's gonna absolutely Pepper the Monster this season in Boston.

944
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 1: I'm really really interested in Bregman this year, and again

945
00:43:36,239 --> 00:43:38,560
Speaker 1: at cost, this is guy who's ADPs outside the top

946
00:43:38,560 --> 00:43:41,600
Speaker 1: one hundred. I think that's too low. Honestly, he had

947
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:45,080
Speaker 1: a low BABIT last year as well. His walk rate

948
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:47,799
Speaker 1: was like half of what his career number is. So

949
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:50,399
Speaker 1: I think there's floor with Bregman, and I think there's

950
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:53,719
Speaker 1: ceiling too. Again, i think he's just gonna absolutely, you know,

951
00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 1: tear down the Green Monster this year with how many

952
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:59,279
Speaker 1: balls he's going to hit into it an outfield. I

953
00:43:59,760 --> 00:44:02,640
Speaker 1: kind of struggled with this because there's almost too many options.

954
00:44:02,680 --> 00:44:06,479
Speaker 1: I went with James Wood, and I almost backed off

955
00:44:06,520 --> 00:44:11,359
Speaker 1: this pick because of his ADP. It is higher than

956
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:16,200
Speaker 1: I'm comfortable with to say, like, I am absolutely all

957
00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 1: in on this player, but I still wanted to include him.

958
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 1: By the way, his ADP's fifty fifth overall, I still

959
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:26,440
Speaker 1: wanted to include him because the ratter de ground because

960
00:44:26,440 --> 00:44:29,240
Speaker 1: of how good he was, you know, for a really

961
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:32,759
Speaker 1: young rookie making his first big league appearance. We've seen

962
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 1: really highly touted rookies struggle out of the gate in

963
00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:39,799
Speaker 1: recent years, and would really didn't. It was in up

964
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:43,080
Speaker 1: and down, you know, stretch of games. Like I said,

965
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 1: he played seventy nine games. He finished with nine home runs,

966
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:48,960
Speaker 1: fourteen stolen bases, he hit two sixty four. He's going

967
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 1: to be an everyday player this year. I think there's

968
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:55,359
Speaker 1: like a pretty decent chance at a twenty maybe even

969
00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:58,920
Speaker 1: like a twenty thirty season for him. Again, the ADP

970
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 1: being where it is, it makes me a little less

971
00:45:01,560 --> 00:45:03,960
Speaker 1: comfortable with this, but I just I think he's awesome.

972
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:06,160
Speaker 1: I think the Nats are going to let him run.

973
00:45:06,200 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 1: I think he's going to hit for power. I don't

974
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 1: think he's I think he's gonna get his ground ball

975
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:11,719
Speaker 1: rate down. It was a little high last year. He's

976
00:45:11,760 --> 00:45:14,280
Speaker 1: gonna hit the ball hard. I really like James Woods,

977
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:16,879
Speaker 1: So even though I don't love the ADP, I still

978
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:20,320
Speaker 1: wanted to include him. And then Roki Sasaki at pitcher

979
00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:24,719
Speaker 1: looked incredible in his spring training. Take you like, there

980
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 1: were some of these like kind of pitcher metric guys

981
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 1: talking about some of the numbers on his splitter as

982
00:45:31,160 --> 00:45:33,600
Speaker 1: like this could be the best pitch in baseball. I

983
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:36,400
Speaker 1: understand what the Dodgers. There's hesitation really for any of

984
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:39,920
Speaker 1: their players that they might do a lot of these

985
00:45:40,320 --> 00:45:44,840
Speaker 1: games of you know, resting guys and phantom il stints,

986
00:45:45,040 --> 00:45:47,160
Speaker 1: and you know, they're already in the playoffs, right like

987
00:45:47,800 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 1: you might as well give them the clinch already because

988
00:45:50,600 --> 00:45:52,680
Speaker 1: their team is so good so they don't need guys

989
00:45:52,719 --> 00:45:55,000
Speaker 1: to push it. And this is his first year in

990
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:57,760
Speaker 1: the States, but he's still a young guy. This team's

991
00:45:57,800 --> 00:45:59,479
Speaker 1: going to win a ton of games, so he's going

992
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:01,799
Speaker 1: to get a ton of opportunities for Wins, I would think,

993
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:04,640
Speaker 1: and I just think his stuff is nasty, Like I

994
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:07,560
Speaker 1: am very excited to get him on my teams, and

995
00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:11,000
Speaker 1: we talked about him also last week with the guys

996
00:46:11,000 --> 00:46:14,000
Speaker 1: that we were struggling to rank. The ADP is not

997
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:16,439
Speaker 1: prohibitive like it might be for a guy like James would.

998
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:19,239
Speaker 1: His ADP's outside the top one hundred. So that's that's

999
00:46:19,280 --> 00:46:21,720
Speaker 1: a range where I'm very willing to take a chance

1000
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 1: on it, and I'm expecting that to go up if

1001
00:46:24,760 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 1: the spring training performances continue to look the way they

1002
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:30,280
Speaker 1: did his first time out. But he is a pitcher

1003
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:32,719
Speaker 1: that I know, we haven't seen it yet. I don't care.

1004
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 1: I want him on my roster. So again it's Addley

1005
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:39,239
Speaker 1: Rutcher and Cody Bellinger, Jordan Westburg, Bobashet, Alex Bregman, James

1006
00:46:39,280 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 1: Wood and Roki Sasaki. What do you think of my

1007
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:42,399
Speaker 1: All Guys team?

1008
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:45,160
Speaker 2: Well, the first thing I thought was I went back

1009
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:47,480
Speaker 2: and watched last week's show just like watch it back,

1010
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:50,359
Speaker 2: so it went, you know, critique myself and I kind

1011
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:52,399
Speaker 2: of came away thinking, wow, I was probably a little

1012
00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:55,560
Speaker 2: bit too hard on a Roki Sasaki and I didn't

1013
00:46:55,600 --> 00:46:57,920
Speaker 2: want to come off as being like anti Roqi Sasaki

1014
00:46:58,360 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 2: when I was really just kind of like pushing on

1015
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:01,719
Speaker 2: my concerns that you mentioned, you know, like stuff with

1016
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:03,880
Speaker 2: the Dodgers, with something we haven't really seen him. And

1017
00:47:03,920 --> 00:47:05,799
Speaker 2: then he goes out and just absolutely dominates in his

1018
00:47:05,800 --> 00:47:07,439
Speaker 2: first appearance, and I was like, well, I look even

1019
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:09,880
Speaker 2: worse now than I was, Like, I came off looking

1020
00:47:10,040 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 2: a little too anti Sasaki, and now I look really

1021
00:47:12,680 --> 00:47:14,919
Speaker 2: bad for being anti Sasaki at all, because he looked

1022
00:47:15,000 --> 00:47:17,600
Speaker 2: really really good. Agree on the James Wood thing, like

1023
00:47:17,640 --> 00:47:19,799
Speaker 2: him as a player, price is a little high. I

1024
00:47:19,840 --> 00:47:21,960
Speaker 2: like Jordan Westburg. He was one I considered for my list.

1025
00:47:21,960 --> 00:47:23,319
Speaker 2: Are I saw him on your list, so I didn't

1026
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:27,480
Speaker 2: include him. Bellinger for obvious reasons. In Yankee Stadium, Bob

1027
00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 2: Bashett worries me a little bit. I've always been a

1028
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:34,520
Speaker 2: Bobashett fan. Last year really kind of scared me off

1029
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:36,879
Speaker 2: a little bit. It was just such a weird bad year.

1030
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:41,640
Speaker 2: I have some health concerns there, mainly like we're still

1031
00:47:41,680 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 2: chasing that like twenty twenty one year where he batted

1032
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:46,759
Speaker 2: twenty nine home runs and he stole twenty five bases.

1033
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:48,200
Speaker 2: And everyone was like, all right, like this is a

1034
00:47:48,280 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 2: locked and loaded twenty five to twenty five guy who also,

1035
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:53,640
Speaker 2: by the way, is going to bat three hundred. And

1036
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:57,759
Speaker 2: then the following year he again play one hundred fifty

1037
00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:00,480
Speaker 2: nine games, twenty four home runs, stolen bases down to thirteen.

1038
00:48:00,680 --> 00:48:02,960
Speaker 2: Following year one hundred and thirty five games, twenty home runs,

1039
00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:04,960
Speaker 2: stolen bases down to five, and then last year was

1040
00:48:05,000 --> 00:48:08,319
Speaker 2: just like a completely lost, you know, crazy year. But

1041
00:48:08,880 --> 00:48:10,719
Speaker 2: it concerns me that it's not really running and there's

1042
00:48:10,760 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 2: like some some knee concerns, some health concerns there, and

1043
00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:16,400
Speaker 2: so he does worry me, even though I do like

1044
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:16,799
Speaker 2: him as a.

1045
00:48:16,760 --> 00:48:19,160
Speaker 1: Player, I get it. But I mean, if you look

1046
00:48:19,200 --> 00:48:22,360
Speaker 1: at his career, what's the outlier in terms of batting average,

1047
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:25,480
Speaker 1: it's last year, right, Like we can reasonably expect if

1048
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:28,560
Speaker 1: he bounces back to what he normally is a two

1049
00:48:28,719 --> 00:48:32,440
Speaker 1: ninety average as a floor. Maybe, I mean, the floor

1050
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 1: isn't that because we just saw what it was last year, obviously,

1051
00:48:34,520 --> 00:48:37,439
Speaker 1: but in general, prior to last year, the floor felt

1052
00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:40,240
Speaker 1: like a two ninety average. The floor felt like twenty

1053
00:48:40,280 --> 00:48:44,799
Speaker 1: home runs, you know, the stolen bases. Maybe it was

1054
00:48:44,840 --> 00:48:47,160
Speaker 1: just one down year, but he had the same number

1055
00:48:47,160 --> 00:48:48,800
Speaker 1: of stole and bases last year as the year before,

1056
00:48:49,719 --> 00:48:51,840
Speaker 1: being on base far less often than he was the

1057
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:54,480
Speaker 1: year before. So maybe the rate is bounced half backing

1058
00:48:54,520 --> 00:48:58,520
Speaker 1: games too, Like, yeah, so would you be surprised if

1059
00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 1: we are sitting here September and he's at twenty two

1060
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:07,319
Speaker 1: homers and eleven stolen bases and a three HO two

1061
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:10,840
Speaker 1: batting average. I wouldn't. And again it's it's not like

1062
00:49:10,840 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 1: he's old. He's still twenty seven and you can get

1063
00:49:13,560 --> 00:49:18,359
Speaker 1: that ADP one twenty six. I mean, that's what an

1064
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:22,200
Speaker 1: eleventh round pick to me, truthfully, And I didn't want

1065
00:49:22,200 --> 00:49:23,920
Speaker 1: to include anybody that's like going in the first round

1066
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:26,719
Speaker 1: or something, because obviously everybody loves those guys. Truthfully, I

1067
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:29,799
Speaker 1: probably do just want to get a shortstop early. I

1068
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:32,960
Speaker 1: want Bobby Witt or Ellie Da la Cruz or Gunner

1069
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:36,600
Speaker 1: Henderson or Mookie Betts or Francisco Lador, like I want

1070
00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:39,759
Speaker 1: one of those top five guys. If I don't get them, though,

1071
00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:41,960
Speaker 1: I'm comfortable with like, I'm not going to be the

1072
00:49:42,000 --> 00:49:45,800
Speaker 1: guy who takes like Willia Domas you know, or Corey

1073
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:49,480
Speaker 1: Seeger shortly after those top five or six, go I'm

1074
00:49:49,480 --> 00:49:51,320
Speaker 1: gonna be the guy who waits a couple extra rounds

1075
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:53,160
Speaker 1: and takes the swing on Bishett.

1076
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:56,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fair. It's also kind of the you know,

1077
00:49:56,200 --> 00:49:57,839
Speaker 2: I'm kind of being a hypocrite because I was talking

1078
00:49:57,880 --> 00:50:00,719
Speaker 2: about not drafting Chris Sale based on twenty four, But

1079
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:03,439
Speaker 2: I'm also worried about Boba Schet based on twenty twenty four.

1080
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 1: Just if it wasn't such a screaming outlier to the

1081
00:50:06,160 --> 00:50:09,560
Speaker 1: rest of his career, maybe I would feel differently, But

1082
00:50:09,640 --> 00:50:12,319
Speaker 1: I'm willing to right off again. It was kind of

1083
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:15,200
Speaker 1: like the year from hell for him. Let's give him

1084
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:17,239
Speaker 1: a chance to bounce back at costs, because it's not

1085
00:50:17,280 --> 00:50:19,400
Speaker 1: like you're spending the same ADP used last year to

1086
00:50:19,440 --> 00:50:20,319
Speaker 1: get him.

1087
00:50:20,520 --> 00:50:23,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm down with it, all right.

1088
00:50:23,040 --> 00:50:23,800
Speaker 1: What's your team look like?

1089
00:50:24,600 --> 00:50:28,200
Speaker 2: So my all my guys team is Catcher Wilson. Contrares

1090
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:30,480
Speaker 2: talked about him last last week as kind of that

1091
00:50:30,520 --> 00:50:32,320
Speaker 2: guy who's going to be catra eligible.

1092
00:50:32,560 --> 00:50:34,720
Speaker 1: But it's a great pick. If I don't get adly,

1093
00:50:34,920 --> 00:50:36,600
Speaker 1: this is this is the one I want to Yeah.

1094
00:50:36,760 --> 00:50:39,680
Speaker 2: Unfortunately I don't have him in any drafts yet because

1095
00:50:39,680 --> 00:50:42,719
Speaker 2: he keeps going earlier and earlier. I got priced out

1096
00:50:42,760 --> 00:50:45,719
Speaker 2: of him last night. I'm pretty sure he went so

1097
00:50:45,760 --> 00:50:49,279
Speaker 2: expensive in my salary cap league last night, and one

1098
00:50:49,280 --> 00:50:51,920
Speaker 2: person's actually joking about it in the chat. I'm pretty

1099
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:54,160
Speaker 2: sure someone thought it was William Contreres that they were

1100
00:50:54,200 --> 00:50:57,920
Speaker 2: bidding on him and Nott Wilson. So that game may

1101
00:50:57,920 --> 00:51:00,799
Speaker 2: have unintentionally priced me out of because he went for

1102
00:51:00,880 --> 00:51:04,080
Speaker 2: like sixteen months. First base, Freddy Freeman, We've talked about

1103
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:06,600
Speaker 2: him a little bit. A lot of that is also, like,

1104
00:51:07,120 --> 00:51:08,920
Speaker 2: you know, I'm not like that worried about last year,

1105
00:51:08,920 --> 00:51:10,879
Speaker 2: but I'm also a little worried just about like first

1106
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:14,120
Speaker 2: base in general, because it feels kind of thin after

1107
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:18,240
Speaker 2: Freddy Freeman, like or after that, like Tier.

1108
00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:21,400
Speaker 1: I think the appeal of Freeman is that first base

1109
00:51:21,600 --> 00:51:25,120
Speaker 1: isn't that strong. Yeah, so you get you're kind of

1110
00:51:25,160 --> 00:51:28,000
Speaker 1: locking in a reasonable floor. I do worry about Freeman

1111
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:30,760
Speaker 1: after last year, at his age, and again the Dodgers

1112
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:34,240
Speaker 1: have no incentive to push guys. Still a strong lineup,

1113
00:51:34,239 --> 00:51:36,960
Speaker 1: still obviously a good hitter. I am, I think more

1114
00:51:36,960 --> 00:51:39,439
Speaker 1: worried than you, like I have him in a league

1115
00:51:39,480 --> 00:51:42,919
Speaker 1: that we're both in. It's a you know, deep keeper League,

1116
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:44,479
Speaker 1: but you keep guys at cost, and after a certain

1117
00:51:44,480 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 1: point their cost goes up. So I have Freeman for

1118
00:51:47,560 --> 00:51:51,000
Speaker 1: fifty six dollars and I'm I haven't one hundred percent

1119
00:51:51,040 --> 00:51:53,840
Speaker 1: made my decision yet, and I don't like leaving myself

1120
00:51:53,840 --> 00:51:56,120
Speaker 1: without a first baseman, but I'm pretty strongly leaning towards

1121
00:51:56,160 --> 00:51:59,799
Speaker 1: throwing him back because I worry about him living up

1122
00:51:59,800 --> 00:52:00,520
Speaker 1: to the cost.

1123
00:52:00,640 --> 00:52:03,359
Speaker 2: Now, yeah, fifty six is a lot when you get

1124
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:05,520
Speaker 2: to that point, but I do think it's like the

1125
00:52:05,520 --> 00:52:07,800
Speaker 2: top of the first base here is you know, vlad

1126
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:12,160
Speaker 2: Bryce Harper, Freddy Freeman, Matt Olsen Tier and then you

1127
00:52:12,200 --> 00:52:14,600
Speaker 2: know Pete Alonzo, Josh Naylor, Christal Walker start getting in

1128
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:17,520
Speaker 2: some questions there. So I do kind of like if

1129
00:52:17,520 --> 00:52:19,440
Speaker 2: I can get a Freddy Freeman early, because you know,

1130
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:21,279
Speaker 2: even though he's older, he still runs, you might get

1131
00:52:21,320 --> 00:52:23,319
Speaker 2: like double Jedg's stolen bases out of Freddy Freeman, which

1132
00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:26,600
Speaker 2: is kind of nice to sprinkle into your first base slot.

1133
00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:29,879
Speaker 2: The rest of my team. There's some concerns about this player,

1134
00:52:29,920 --> 00:52:32,839
Speaker 2: but I really like Matt McClain, you know, again being

1135
00:52:32,840 --> 00:52:35,480
Speaker 2: a hypocrite with like projecting, you know, out stuff we

1136
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:37,080
Speaker 2: haven't seen before. But I just think he's a really

1137
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:39,200
Speaker 2: good young player, and like we could easily see like

1138
00:52:39,200 --> 00:52:41,239
Speaker 2: twenty twenty twenty five to twenty out of him with

1139
00:52:41,320 --> 00:52:42,960
Speaker 2: a good batting average if you can stay healthy and

1140
00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:45,479
Speaker 2: stay on the field in a really good which should

1141
00:52:45,520 --> 00:52:47,520
Speaker 2: be like a fine lineup in a really good offensive

1142
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:50,840
Speaker 2: hitters ballpark. And he's he's not expensive, so he's someone

1143
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:53,400
Speaker 2: you know, middle infield, tecond base. I can kind of

1144
00:52:53,400 --> 00:52:56,320
Speaker 2: get him pretty late. I like, I like that Treya

1145
00:52:56,360 --> 00:52:59,880
Speaker 2: Turner Trey Turner. I think you're getting like a discount

1146
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:02,000
Speaker 2: on Turner this year. You're kind of getting his bad

1147
00:53:02,080 --> 00:53:04,960
Speaker 2: year discount. So I like, you know, like you said,

1148
00:53:04,960 --> 00:53:07,520
Speaker 2: you wanted to get one of those early shortstops. If

1149
00:53:08,160 --> 00:53:09,959
Speaker 2: you know, if we look at the ADP, it's Bobby

1150
00:53:09,960 --> 00:53:12,680
Speaker 2: wait Elie Da La Cruz Gunner, Mookie Bats's shortstop eligible

1151
00:53:12,680 --> 00:53:15,120
Speaker 2: for Francisco Lindor. And then you're getting Trey Turner at

1152
00:53:15,160 --> 00:53:17,640
Speaker 2: SP six. We're not that far remove from Tray Turner

1153
00:53:17,680 --> 00:53:20,279
Speaker 2: being a first round pick, and you know, now I'm

1154
00:53:20,320 --> 00:53:22,799
Speaker 2: getting him to SP six, maybe the third round. Like

1155
00:53:22,880 --> 00:53:24,799
Speaker 2: that's a pretty good discount in terms of you know,

1156
00:53:24,840 --> 00:53:27,279
Speaker 2: the production you can get s S six not sp

1157
00:53:27,680 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 2: SP Sorry, good good catch sp ss SP.

1158
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:33,960
Speaker 1: I'm saving you from the commenters.

1159
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:37,520
Speaker 2: Yeah. I did that the other day with something else too,

1160
00:53:37,560 --> 00:53:39,120
Speaker 2: and I don't think anyone noticed. But I think I

1161
00:53:39,400 --> 00:53:41,920
Speaker 2: meant to say, like football drafts and baseball draft and

1162
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:44,359
Speaker 2: I just said football twice and I watched it back,

1163
00:53:44,400 --> 00:53:46,920
Speaker 2: so I'll be hard five. When I watched his back

1164
00:53:46,960 --> 00:53:49,040
Speaker 2: and see that, I said sp But yeah, shortstop six.

1165
00:53:49,800 --> 00:53:53,319
Speaker 2: But you know last year he had like a down year.

1166
00:53:53,360 --> 00:53:54,759
Speaker 2: He still beat at two ninety five, but the year

1167
00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:56,319
Speaker 2: before that he hit twenty six home runs and thirty

1168
00:53:56,320 --> 00:53:59,040
Speaker 2: stone bases. That's a first round pick and now you

1169
00:53:59,040 --> 00:54:01,480
Speaker 2: can potentially get him in the third round. So I

1170
00:54:01,560 --> 00:54:05,120
Speaker 2: like him as a shortstop options SS third base. I

1171
00:54:05,120 --> 00:54:06,879
Speaker 2: really like Mark Vantos. I just think he's a really

1172
00:54:06,920 --> 00:54:08,239
Speaker 2: good hitter. I think that lineup is going to be

1173
00:54:08,280 --> 00:54:10,120
Speaker 2: even better. He's gonna be batting at the top that

1174
00:54:10,160 --> 00:54:13,320
Speaker 2: lineup with you KNOWJN. Soto kind of making everyone around

1175
00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:15,719
Speaker 2: him in that lineup better. He's someone we talked about

1176
00:54:15,760 --> 00:54:17,719
Speaker 2: last year where I just picked him up on waivers

1177
00:54:18,040 --> 00:54:20,640
Speaker 2: expecting to kind of just like extream that position, and

1178
00:54:20,680 --> 00:54:22,000
Speaker 2: he was just my third basement for the rest of

1179
00:54:22,000 --> 00:54:23,400
Speaker 2: the year because he was that good and I just

1180
00:54:23,400 --> 00:54:26,080
Speaker 2: think he's like a good professional hitter. The Mets were

1181
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:28,640
Speaker 2: essentially ready to let Pete Alonso walk out the door

1182
00:54:28,840 --> 00:54:31,680
Speaker 2: because of like their confidence of Mark Vantos. You know,

1183
00:54:31,719 --> 00:54:34,120
Speaker 2: they eventually brought Pete Alonzo back, like called his bluff

1184
00:54:34,160 --> 00:54:36,680
Speaker 2: and freed out of the contract, but they seemed like

1185
00:54:36,760 --> 00:54:41,759
Speaker 2: unworried about losing pet Alonso because they like Mark Vano's outfield.

1186
00:54:41,800 --> 00:54:45,080
Speaker 2: Of course, Mike Trout, I'm back in for one more

1187
00:54:45,160 --> 00:54:47,040
Speaker 2: year of Mike Trout. We'll talk about him a little

1188
00:54:47,040 --> 00:54:50,399
Speaker 2: bit more again next week on a Fantasy Fest because

1189
00:54:50,440 --> 00:54:52,080
Speaker 2: I have I have him lined up for a segment.

1190
00:54:52,560 --> 00:54:54,920
Speaker 2: I'm probably gonna have to start diversifying my drafts a

1191
00:54:54,920 --> 00:54:57,040
Speaker 2: little bit because I've done three drafts already and I

1192
00:54:57,080 --> 00:55:00,560
Speaker 2: have Mike Trod in all of them. And so as

1193
00:55:00,640 --> 00:55:02,400
Speaker 2: much as I'm in, I'm Mike Trout this year. Maybe

1194
00:55:02,400 --> 00:55:04,600
Speaker 2: that's a little scary of having him an all error.

1195
00:55:05,360 --> 00:55:08,000
Speaker 1: Where did you get him? What round or what cost?

1196
00:55:08,760 --> 00:55:12,280
Speaker 2: I got him in TGFBI, which is a fifteen team league,

1197
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:14,640
Speaker 2: in the seventh round seven oh two, So in a

1198
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:16,560
Speaker 2: normal league, that's really like the eighth round because it's

1199
00:55:16,560 --> 00:55:18,279
Speaker 2: a fifteen team league. So I got him at seven

1200
00:55:18,320 --> 00:55:23,720
Speaker 2: oh two, knowing that I was probably maybe year round early,

1201
00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:25,440
Speaker 2: but that I wouldn't get him on the way back

1202
00:55:25,480 --> 00:55:26,000
Speaker 2: because you know.

1203
00:55:25,960 --> 00:55:28,640
Speaker 1: Seven two, I mean, you're what thirty picks away, twenty

1204
00:55:28,680 --> 00:55:29,319
Speaker 1: eight picks away for.

1205
00:55:29,280 --> 00:55:30,480
Speaker 2: He would not have made it back to me. So

1206
00:55:30,480 --> 00:55:32,480
Speaker 2: I knew I was a little early, but I wanted him,

1207
00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:36,000
Speaker 2: and so I had him, and then last night in

1208
00:55:36,040 --> 00:55:39,400
Speaker 2: the salary cap I got him. It's you know, it's

1209
00:55:39,400 --> 00:55:41,920
Speaker 2: hard to say, like you know, without the relevance of

1210
00:55:41,960 --> 00:55:43,120
Speaker 2: like the league, but it's like a standard like two

1211
00:55:43,160 --> 00:55:45,040
Speaker 2: hundred and sixty sixty dollar budget. I think I umber

1212
00:55:45,040 --> 00:55:48,239
Speaker 2: seventeen dollars, which is like not super expensive, but not

1213
00:55:48,320 --> 00:55:52,080
Speaker 2: super cheap either, Like I was fine with that. And

1214
00:55:52,120 --> 00:55:55,920
Speaker 2: then for sp SP this time starting pitcher. Do you

1215
00:55:55,960 --> 00:55:59,640
Speaker 2: remember the name Brandon Woodruff because he is really cheap

1216
00:55:59,800 --> 00:56:03,000
Speaker 2: and not that far removed from essentially being an ace,

1217
00:56:03,440 --> 00:56:06,879
Speaker 2: just kind of being overshadowed by Corbyn Burns, and he's

1218
00:56:06,920 --> 00:56:09,120
Speaker 2: someone if I can look up his ADP, he's going

1219
00:56:09,160 --> 00:56:12,640
Speaker 2: really late that outside the top two hundred and two

1220
00:56:12,680 --> 00:56:14,560
Speaker 2: nineteen all the way up to two hundred and forty

1221
00:56:14,560 --> 00:56:21,200
Speaker 2: two on NFBC, and he's removed from his injury. He's

1222
00:56:21,440 --> 00:56:23,160
Speaker 2: should be penciled in for like one hundred and forty

1223
00:56:23,239 --> 00:56:25,080
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty innings, which you could potentially get one

1224
00:56:25,120 --> 00:56:27,480
Speaker 2: hundred and seventy one hundred ninety strikeouts out of that.

1225
00:56:28,440 --> 00:56:30,799
Speaker 2: This guy, this is a sub three er guy who

1226
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:34,319
Speaker 2: is going outside the top two hundred. So he's the

1227
00:56:34,440 --> 00:56:36,920
Speaker 2: exact kind of picture I love to take late with upside,

1228
00:56:37,440 --> 00:56:39,759
Speaker 2: And it's not even really projecting the upside because we've

1229
00:56:39,800 --> 00:56:41,720
Speaker 2: seen it before. We just need to see if he's healthy.

1230
00:56:42,200 --> 00:56:45,800
Speaker 1: Where's he ranked for you? Let's he's SP seventy.

1231
00:56:48,880 --> 00:56:52,200
Speaker 2: I have him at SP sixty, maybe even too low.

1232
00:56:52,280 --> 00:56:54,600
Speaker 2: Might need to bump him up little bit. Any thoughts

1233
00:56:54,600 --> 00:56:57,200
Speaker 2: on my team, my guys, No.

1234
00:56:57,320 --> 00:57:00,160
Speaker 1: I kind of interjected where I had thoughts. I think

1235
00:57:00,200 --> 00:57:01,640
Speaker 1: you like yanto Is better than me, but I don't

1236
00:57:01,680 --> 00:57:05,640
Speaker 1: dislike him. Trey Turner, I totally in agreement, in agreement

1237
00:57:05,680 --> 00:57:08,000
Speaker 1: with you on why do you hate Mark Vantis. I

1238
00:57:08,040 --> 00:57:10,279
Speaker 1: don't hate him, I just don't love him as much

1239
00:57:10,280 --> 00:57:15,120
Speaker 1: as you do. I actually considered him for one of

1240
00:57:15,120 --> 00:57:16,880
Speaker 1: the other teams. I forget which one. There was a

1241
00:57:16,880 --> 00:57:19,200
Speaker 1: lot of names we had to put together in preparation

1242
00:57:19,280 --> 00:57:22,560
Speaker 1: for this show. McLain is also one that I I

1243
00:57:22,600 --> 00:57:24,080
Speaker 1: don't think I'm gonna have a lot of Matt McLean.

1244
00:57:24,120 --> 00:57:26,360
Speaker 1: Would you Where'd you say his ADP was Clay?

1245
00:57:26,440 --> 00:57:28,400
Speaker 2: I don't know that I mentioned it. It looks look

1246
00:57:28,440 --> 00:57:31,360
Speaker 2: I mentioned. I knew it was late. But he's he's

1247
00:57:31,360 --> 00:57:32,800
Speaker 2: moving up a little bit. He was outside of the

1248
00:57:32,800 --> 00:57:35,240
Speaker 2: top hundred. Now he's right at one hundred, So is

1249
00:57:35,720 --> 00:57:37,400
Speaker 2: right his ADP is creeping up.

1250
00:57:37,960 --> 00:57:40,120
Speaker 1: I think I'm likely going to be looking other directions

1251
00:57:40,160 --> 00:57:42,280
Speaker 1: at that stage in the draft, but I get the

1252
00:57:42,320 --> 00:57:45,200
Speaker 1: appeal for him. But no, yeah, I didn't have too

1253
00:57:45,200 --> 00:57:47,760
Speaker 1: many major takeaways are the ones I've already mentioned. So

1254
00:57:48,120 --> 00:57:50,480
Speaker 1: those are our teams went through, the All Regression team,

1255
00:57:50,520 --> 00:57:54,840
Speaker 1: the All boomer Bus team, and the all my Guys team.

1256
00:57:54,880 --> 00:57:57,520
Speaker 1: For everybody listening, let us know players we missed, the

1257
00:57:57,560 --> 00:57:59,600
Speaker 1: players you agree with us on, disagree with us on,

1258
00:58:00,120 --> 00:58:01,960
Speaker 1: and anybody else that we should have thrown out there

1259
00:58:01,960 --> 00:58:04,640
Speaker 1: for any of these teams. Let us know whose teams

1260
00:58:04,680 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 1: you kind of agree with more. It's not who's better,

1261
00:58:07,080 --> 00:58:09,680
Speaker 1: but who's kind of maybe fits that category a little

1262
00:58:09,680 --> 00:58:12,720
Speaker 1: bit better in your opinion. Myself or Mayor, next week's

1263
00:58:12,760 --> 00:58:15,600
Speaker 1: episode is going to be bold predictions that you can't

1264
00:58:15,640 --> 00:58:18,120
Speaker 1: hold us to, So we're gonna get really fun with

1265
00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:20,960
Speaker 1: it and you're not allowed to say, oh, you predicted

1266
00:58:20,960 --> 00:58:23,080
Speaker 1: this to happen because you cannot hold us to these.

1267
00:58:23,360 --> 00:58:25,120
Speaker 1: We're going to throw some bold predictions, so be sure

1268
00:58:25,120 --> 00:58:27,160
Speaker 1: to share yours in the comment as well. In addition

1269
00:58:27,200 --> 00:58:29,200
Speaker 1: to letting us know what you thought of today's episode,

1270
00:58:29,480 --> 00:58:31,600
Speaker 1: let us know some bold predictions that you guys have

1271
00:58:32,120 --> 00:58:35,720
Speaker 1: that you are kind of stamping on this twenty twenty

1272
00:58:35,760 --> 00:58:38,040
Speaker 1: five season. You can check us out of the Fantasy

1273
00:58:38,080 --> 00:58:41,320
Speaker 1: Pros MLB YouTube channel or wherever you listen to your

1274
00:58:41,400 --> 00:58:44,600
Speaker 1: podcast to find out our predictions for the twenty twenty

1275
00:58:44,640 --> 00:58:47,720
Speaker 1: five season. Four Mayor, I am Ryan warmly thanks everybody

1276
00:58:47,760 --> 00:58:49,840
Speaker 1: for tuning in and we will see you again next week.

1277
00:58:50,120 --> 00:58:53,360
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.

1278
00:58:53,600 --> 00:58:55,960
Speaker 1: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

1279
00:58:56,040 --> 00:58:58,960
Speaker 1: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

1280
00:58:59,000 --> 00:59:02,720
Speaker 1: or Spotify, follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at

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Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube

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Speaker 1: dot com slash Fantasy pros MLB