1 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:04,640 Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. 2 00:00:04,680 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: I'm your host, Thomas Viola, and yes my girlfriend did 3 00:00:07,480 --> 00:00:09,520 Speaker 1: see Top Gun, so now I have to grow the 4 00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:13,400 Speaker 1: Miles Teller mustache. Joining me today is my good friend 5 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:16,799 Speaker 1: Nick Henyon, and we are here because it is finally 6 00:00:16,880 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 1: time football is back. Yes, the Hall of Fame game 7 00:00:19,680 --> 00:00:24,480 Speaker 1: is this weekend, but more importantly, the English Premier League 8 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:27,480 Speaker 1: kicks off on August sixth, and so we are here 9 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 1: today to talk a little bit about the futures market, 10 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 1: a little bit about and some of the specific things 11 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 1: that you might want to bet going into this season 12 00:00:35,120 --> 00:00:37,559 Speaker 1: of the Beautiful Game, but also to give you more 13 00:00:37,600 --> 00:00:40,760 Speaker 1: of a well rounded look a betting guide if you will, 14 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: to betting on the beautiful Game, as I had just 15 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 1: used earlier in that sentence. But Nick, it is a 16 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:47,879 Speaker 1: pleasure to have you here. 17 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 2: How are you doing today, I'm good, Tom, Thanks for 18 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:50,519 Speaker 2: having me. 19 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:53,160 Speaker 1: It is fantastic to have you on. We of course, 20 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 1: we go way back all the way to the v 21 00:00:54,960 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 1: Sin days. You've been a frequent guest on just about 22 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 1: any soccer pod that I have ever done, and you 23 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 1: had an incredible, incredible Premier League season just a year 24 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 1: ago you finished up over fifty units. 25 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 2: Right, that's correct, fifty five to be exact. 26 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:16,120 Speaker 1: Bravo, my friend, Bravo. And where can people find the 27 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:18,800 Speaker 1: work that you do after this pod is long over 28 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 1: and they want to follow your handicapping. 29 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:23,960 Speaker 2: For soccer, Mostly you can find me on the Action 30 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 2: Network website. You can also find a little bit of 31 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 2: soccer in the New York Posts Sports betting section, but 32 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:33,319 Speaker 2: predominantly for Action Network is where people can find me, 33 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 2: and on Twitter of course at Nick Henyan. 34 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:38,800 Speaker 1: All right, well, let's get right into it here. Nick. 35 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:43,160 Speaker 1: Starting off, let's talk about what everyone wants to know 36 00:01:43,160 --> 00:01:45,400 Speaker 1: at the beginning of the season, who was winning the title, 37 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 1: and when it comes to the futures market, especially in 38 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 1: the Premier League, it's not like the NFL, where yeah, 39 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 1: the Bills are five to one favorites right now, but 40 00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 1: certainly there is no one who is saying that the 41 00:01:55,960 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 1: Bills are an absolute mortal lock to win the Lombardi 42 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:04,120 Speaker 1: Trophy at the end of the season. In soccer, and 43 00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 1: especially in the Premier League, it's a little bit different. 44 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:09,080 Speaker 1: This is kind of a two horse race here because 45 00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:11,000 Speaker 1: you see at the top of the table the odds 46 00:02:11,040 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 1: over on DraftKings have man City at minus one sixty 47 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:17,359 Speaker 1: five to win the trophy and to win in the 48 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:19,359 Speaker 1: Premier League at the end of the year. It's insane 49 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:22,079 Speaker 1: and Liverpool is right behind them at plus two point 50 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: fifty Tottenham in third place on DraftKings at twelve to one. 51 00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:29,720 Speaker 1: That's how steep the drop off is. The top two 52 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:34,080 Speaker 1: do not change, especially recently in the Premier League. This 53 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:36,359 Speaker 1: is very much a league of haves and have nots, 54 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 1: and when it comes to betting, especially on the futures market, 55 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 1: your value is not really going to be in taking 56 00:02:41,280 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 1: one of these two. 57 00:02:43,200 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 2: No, definitely not. I think the question people want to 58 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:48,720 Speaker 2: know is who's winning the title. I think City do 59 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 2: win the title. That's why you're seeing such high odds. 60 00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,839 Speaker 2: But there are so many better ways to use your 61 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:57,919 Speaker 2: money than laying it on a dollar sixty five future 62 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:01,119 Speaker 2: like there's just so many better markets people can take 63 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,079 Speaker 2: advantage of. I know we'll talk about that later in 64 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:07,360 Speaker 2: the show, but I mean, just from a future strategy standpoint, 65 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 2: if you came to me and said, Okay, I have 66 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:12,079 Speaker 2: to have a bet in this market, the only strategy 67 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:14,359 Speaker 2: I can think of is take Liverpool at plus two fifty, 68 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 2: hope City falter in the first half of the season, 69 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:20,520 Speaker 2: get in live on City and plus money too, and 70 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:23,920 Speaker 2: try to guarantee yourself at least a minimal profit. But 71 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:27,400 Speaker 2: a dollar sixty five too rich for my blood to 72 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 2: open this season. 73 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:31,800 Speaker 1: I mean I can't. I can barely bet a future 74 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 1: under five to one. I certainly can't can't bet one 75 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 1: at minus prices. So if you want to start looking 76 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 1: in the futures market and you want to say, hey, 77 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 1: I want to have a bet going into the season, 78 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:44,960 Speaker 1: because I get that a lot of people want to 79 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 1: have some fun on a season long ride, something they 80 00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 1: can put a little bit down and hope that they're 81 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:52,160 Speaker 1: going to have a nice, small payday waiting for them 82 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 1: in the summer. 83 00:03:53,960 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 2: And honestly, the other thing I'll say too is if 84 00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:59,120 Speaker 2: you want a bet City, if you think City win 85 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:02,760 Speaker 2: the title, just a little betting calculus here. Just take 86 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 2: over their points total. I think it's said at ninety 87 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:09,120 Speaker 2: and a half. I think most champions have cleared that 88 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 2: number in the last five or six years. That's minus 89 00:04:12,480 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 2: one ten. So if you want a bet City to 90 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:16,960 Speaker 2: win the title, just bet them over ninety and a 91 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 2: half points instead. Because I think that saves you a 92 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 2: little bit of juice, and it still gets you invested 93 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,359 Speaker 2: in what I consider to be the best team heading 94 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 2: into the twenty twenty two to twenty three campaign. 95 00:04:28,600 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 1: And the other thing about it is, I think that's 96 00:04:31,120 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 1: a good bet regardless. It's the same thing as betting 97 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:40,000 Speaker 1: an NFL win total here. But short of something utterly 98 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:44,480 Speaker 1: downright catastrophic like a spate of ACL tears going around 99 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:47,520 Speaker 1: the locker room, this team is going to be right 100 00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 1: up there at ninety points. I think that number might 101 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:51,680 Speaker 1: even be a little low for them. They're not going 102 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:55,040 Speaker 1: to drop many games this season. I think you're completely 103 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 1: right about that market. But if you wanted to try 104 00:04:57,040 --> 00:05:00,080 Speaker 1: and find something with maybe a little more value, you 105 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:03,839 Speaker 1: have more betting options here because you can bet the winner, 106 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:05,840 Speaker 1: but you can also bet team to finish in the 107 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:09,359 Speaker 1: top four. And there's not a tremendous amount of value 108 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 1: there until you get down to Newcastle at nine to one. 109 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 1: But it is another way that you can look if 110 00:05:14,200 --> 00:05:14,719 Speaker 1: you want to. 111 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:19,839 Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, But again you're gonna see lofty prices on 112 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 2: those as well. I mean, I think really the question 113 00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 2: is we're expecting the same four teams to finish in 114 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:30,320 Speaker 2: the top four this year. Really the only question is 115 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 2: whether a team like Arsenal or Manu or one of 116 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:37,200 Speaker 2: those sneaky sort of mid table sizes West ham Blester 117 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 2: can break into that. I personally don't think so I'm 118 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 2: getting involved. All my futures are further down the board. 119 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:50,279 Speaker 2: I'm thinking mid table relegation, you know, top six maybe, 120 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:53,279 Speaker 2: so I think if you want to get involved, those 121 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:56,120 Speaker 2: are the places where betters can really you know, have 122 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 2: a good chance of cashing a good ticket. 123 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:00,760 Speaker 1: And you talk about relegation, that is one of the 124 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:03,440 Speaker 1: amazing things and really the best. That is my biggest 125 00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:06,480 Speaker 1: disagreement with the entirety of European soccers is the fact 126 00:06:06,520 --> 00:06:09,680 Speaker 1: that you have no playoffs the top of the Winning 127 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 1: the league is very boring. It's a conversation that we 128 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:15,359 Speaker 1: just had here and we can't There's nothing that we 129 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,560 Speaker 1: can really do in that market. Relegation, on the other hand, 130 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 1: is where things get exciting. I'm an Everton fan and 131 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 1: life was absolute misery for me last season until the game, 132 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:29,680 Speaker 1: the second to last game of the season, when we 133 00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 1: officially secured our place in the Premier League for the 134 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:35,599 Speaker 1: next season. That was far more nerve racking, and we're 135 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 1: right there in the thick of it for relegation. Again, 136 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:39,760 Speaker 1: we are three to one to get relegated. But there 137 00:06:39,800 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 1: is some value here. Bournemouth the only team in the 138 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 1: minus range to finish in the bottom three in the table. 139 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 1: Where are you looking at first? Potentially a value play 140 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 1: here on relegation. 141 00:06:50,560 --> 00:06:54,159 Speaker 2: So I have two one is and I should say, 142 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 2: like one, I'm not really gonna bet it. I need 143 00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 2: a better number. But I'm really worried about leads this year. 144 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 2: I mean, Raffenia's gone, Calvin Phillips has gone. I mean, 145 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 2: if you look it's a small sample, I'll give you that, 146 00:07:08,040 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 2: but if you look at their matches last season without 147 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 2: Calvin Phillips, yikes, it's not look good. I mean, this 148 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 2: was a team that was regularly giving up two expected 149 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:19,760 Speaker 2: goals in this game and they have done nothing to 150 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 2: solidify their defense. Is Tyler Adams a good player, yes, 151 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 2: but he is a significant downgrade from Calvin Pholps in 152 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:29,840 Speaker 2: my opinion. The other thing is Raveene's gone. That leaves 153 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 2: you with maybe three guys I would say Patrick Banford, 154 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 2: Jack Harrison and Rodrigo who are capable of scoring ten 155 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 2: goals in the season. There is not much else with 156 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 2: this Leeds attack that and it leaves a lot to 157 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 2: be desired. I know Brendan Aronson is coming to I 158 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 2: really want to be able to root for this team 159 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 2: because you know there's a lot of us blood in there, 160 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:55,160 Speaker 2: Jesse Marsh at the helm. So I'm not gonna bet it, 161 00:07:55,560 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 2: but I do worry about Leeds potentially not have the 162 00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 2: offense to keep up with a defense that I consider 163 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 2: to be among the worst in the Premier League. The 164 00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 2: other team that I'm that I do think has a 165 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:14,239 Speaker 2: little bit of betting value. I got Wolves that's six 166 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:18,320 Speaker 2: to one in pocket to be relegated last night, and 167 00:08:18,480 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 2: I just think this team has gotten figured out and 168 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 2: it is really going to struggle this season. And you 169 00:08:25,880 --> 00:08:28,360 Speaker 2: know the hallmark of Wolves is, you know, they're this 170 00:08:28,480 --> 00:08:31,200 Speaker 2: great defensive team, and yeah, they don't score a lot 171 00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 2: of goals, but they were so good defensively. I think 172 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:38,719 Speaker 2: they were so lucky last year. I think they underperformed 173 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:43,080 Speaker 2: their expected goals against metrics by like twenty five goals 174 00:08:43,160 --> 00:08:47,760 Speaker 2: or something. They were expected to be really bad, and 175 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:51,000 Speaker 2: I just don't think their offense is gelling right now. 176 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:54,200 Speaker 2: The one thing I will say is they have a 177 00:08:54,360 --> 00:08:59,160 Speaker 2: very easy schedule to open up the season, So if 178 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:00,840 Speaker 2: you want to way to a little bit, you might 179 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 2: be able to get a bit of a better number 180 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 2: than six to one. But here's the other little nugget 181 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:09,960 Speaker 2: I found looking back at last season, Wolves did a 182 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 2: lot of damage in the first half, and that's kind 183 00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:15,520 Speaker 2: of how they were able to, you know, ultimately finish 184 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 2: in the top half last season. In the second half. 185 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:20,839 Speaker 2: If you just look at the second time they played 186 00:09:20,880 --> 00:09:25,439 Speaker 2: every opponent those nineteen games, they won once on expected goals. 187 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:30,559 Speaker 2: That is not ideal. And you know, if teams are 188 00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 2: starting to like play them once and figure them out, 189 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:36,439 Speaker 2: if they can't get off to that same quick start, 190 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:39,600 Speaker 2: there's gonna be a lot of trouble. So I think 191 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 2: Wolves at six to one is probably my favorite bet 192 00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 2: for relegation this year. 193 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 1: Now, you brought up a really interesting point in there 194 00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 1: about expected goals, and that's something because a lot of 195 00:09:51,640 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 1: our audience might not know exactly what expected goals are 196 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:58,839 Speaker 1: and how that stat can be so integral in soccer handicapping. 197 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 1: So let's talk about that for a little bit right here. 198 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:04,840 Speaker 1: First off, the definition of expected goals neck. 199 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 2: Yes, it's the based on it's based on a number 200 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:13,040 Speaker 2: of factors. I think it's I think it's over one hundred. 201 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:15,960 Speaker 2: You know, where the shot is taken from, is there 202 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 2: a defender in your way? Like you know, relation to 203 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 2: the goal. It's the number of times you're expected to 204 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:26,720 Speaker 2: score from that from any given shot. There's another thing 205 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 2: that's a little more complicated called post shot expected goals, 206 00:10:30,440 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 2: which is it takes out. It's similar to course in hockey, 207 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:38,280 Speaker 2: where it takes out you know, block shots at missshots. 208 00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 2: It's basically shots on goal that you're expected to score. 209 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 2: That is mostly helpful to see which goalkeepers are overperforming 210 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 2: or which goalkeepers are really good in terms of denying 211 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:56,200 Speaker 2: expected goals after the shot. So you know, it's and 212 00:10:56,280 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 2: you can use that data to kind of see like, okay, 213 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 2: as a team underperforming, are they overperforming? They're expected goal targets. 214 00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 2: It works for totals too. I mean sometimes match will 215 00:11:06,720 --> 00:11:09,720 Speaker 2: have one expected goal, but they'll soar for four or 216 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:12,320 Speaker 2: five and you can kind of use that data to 217 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 2: go into your advantage. But yeah, it's that's what they expected. 218 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 2: That's how we define expected goals. 219 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 1: And how is it that you like to use that 220 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:24,200 Speaker 1: stat in your handicapping, because it is a really big part. 221 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:25,880 Speaker 1: I know every time we sit down to talk about 222 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 1: one of the big things we always talk about is 223 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:30,840 Speaker 1: looking at the xgs for these teams as an indicator 224 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:32,559 Speaker 1: of how well they're going to perform over the season. 225 00:11:33,080 --> 00:11:35,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, I like to I like to quote our friend 226 00:11:35,160 --> 00:11:37,680 Speaker 2: punk Car on this, which is, you like to bet 227 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:43,199 Speaker 2: against human achievement in soccer sometimes, and you know, teams 228 00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 2: are naturally going to perform at a certain rate, and 229 00:11:47,760 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 2: sometimes teams are just going to underperform over the course 230 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,200 Speaker 2: of the season. A perfect example of that was Brentford 231 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:57,559 Speaker 2: last season. I mean they had about a negative four 232 00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:00,880 Speaker 2: expected goal a negative four goal different excuse me, over 233 00:12:00,880 --> 00:12:02,960 Speaker 2: the course of the season, but they're expected was about 234 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 2: a negative you know, two point one or something. If 235 00:12:05,840 --> 00:12:08,840 Speaker 2: you look at their home and away metrics, that can 236 00:12:09,120 --> 00:12:12,720 Speaker 2: you know, have a further indicator. So you really want 237 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:15,959 Speaker 2: to use it to kind of see like, okay, not 238 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:18,840 Speaker 2: every You're not going to score on every screamer from 239 00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:22,240 Speaker 2: twenty yards outside the box. So if that's how teams 240 00:12:22,240 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 2: are generating their goals, you want to be able to 241 00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:28,920 Speaker 2: take advantage of that and maybe take some unders in 242 00:12:28,960 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 2: the future, you'll see the market overreacts to teams scoring 243 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:35,440 Speaker 2: goals a lot and see some movement there, so you 244 00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:37,720 Speaker 2: do want to That's mostly what I use it for 245 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:40,840 Speaker 2: is teams that are overperforming and then take some unders 246 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 2: on their totals or team totals even But the other 247 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 2: thing you can use, and it's a little more simplified 248 00:12:47,280 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 2: than expected goals, is is big scoring chances. There are 249 00:12:51,400 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 2: a few sites that track those, and those you can 250 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:56,800 Speaker 2: really use, like, okay, teams had you know, four big 251 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:59,719 Speaker 2: scoring chances and they scored twice or something, So you 252 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 2: want to look at that and see, you know, which 253 00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 2: teams are due for positive offensive and defensive regression and 254 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 2: also negative offensive and defensive regression. And that's that's a 255 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 2: big reason why it's so much success last year, was 256 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:16,600 Speaker 2: able to pinpoint those opportunities and effectively deciding, Okay, is 257 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:19,319 Speaker 2: this a side I wanted back based on the regression 258 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 2: metrics or is it a. 259 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:24,760 Speaker 1: Total Guys, real quick, remember when you're looking for free 260 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:27,960 Speaker 1: picks and sports betting advice, bettingpros dot com has you 261 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:30,719 Speaker 1: covered with tips from over one hundred and fifty experts 262 00:13:30,800 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 1: to make it easy for you to cash out. Download 263 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:35,720 Speaker 1: the app to get sports betting alerts. 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So, now, 269 00:13:55,080 --> 00:13:57,240 Speaker 1: with all of that in mind, who are some teams 270 00:13:57,240 --> 00:13:59,839 Speaker 1: that you're looking at this season and saying I think 271 00:13:59,880 --> 00:14:01,520 Speaker 1: that they're going to regress to the mean in either 272 00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:02,880 Speaker 1: a positive or negative direction. 273 00:14:04,120 --> 00:14:08,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll start with the positive first. Crystal Palace is 274 00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 2: I'm gonna have to wait on them from a side 275 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 2: perspective because I don't know what they're gonna look like 276 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 2: without Connor Gallagher. But they were a really good home 277 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 2: team and there they're x G metrics back that up, 278 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:23,880 Speaker 2: and I think they were thirteenth or fourteenth in the 279 00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:26,720 Speaker 2: table last year. I personally have them rated as the 280 00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 2: top half side entering this season because I think they 281 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:33,200 Speaker 2: have you know, there's not much star power on that team. 282 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 2: You know, Wilfrid Zaha is still a good talent out 283 00:14:36,200 --> 00:14:38,680 Speaker 2: at left wing. But you know, they have a lot 284 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 2: of just like really good players. They're not going to 285 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 2: blow you away with their overall skill level. But you know, 286 00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 2: I think that Palace is a team that could be 287 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:52,680 Speaker 2: in for some you know, some positive regression. Another team 288 00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:56,080 Speaker 2: I'm looking at is aston Villa. If you kind of 289 00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 2: have to take them with a grain of salt because 290 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 2: they did sack their manager mid season in last year, 291 00:15:01,160 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 2: but if you look at the underlying metrics under Dean 292 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 2: Smith versus Steven Gerrard, they're markedly better under Gerard. I 293 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 2: think they basically performed up to par with Gerard as 294 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 2: their manager. I think in the matches he was in charge, 295 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:19,360 Speaker 2: it was a plus zero goal differential on about a 296 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:23,080 Speaker 2: plus you know, a half plus one expected gold differential. 297 00:15:23,120 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 2: So there's a little room for positive regression with them. 298 00:15:26,240 --> 00:15:29,080 Speaker 2: But I've been really impressed with their summer signings and 299 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:31,320 Speaker 2: I think they could be a really good team this year. 300 00:15:31,640 --> 00:15:34,320 Speaker 2: On the other side, the two teams I'm looking at, 301 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 2: I mean I mentioned Wolves already, they're definitely a negative 302 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 2: regression candidate coming into this season, but beyond that, I 303 00:15:41,760 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 2: think west Ham and Lester are two teams that overperformed 304 00:15:45,800 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 2: a little bit, and the thing you have to look 305 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:51,200 Speaker 2: at with teams, and you know, it does impact Palace 306 00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:54,000 Speaker 2: to a little bit. So I'm probably not as high 307 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:57,520 Speaker 2: on them as I am on Villa. But west Ham 308 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:01,360 Speaker 2: played really well at home last season, but they're terrible 309 00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 2: on the road and you really want to find those 310 00:16:03,360 --> 00:16:05,440 Speaker 2: teams that can have at least a little bit of 311 00:16:05,480 --> 00:16:10,040 Speaker 2: efficiency in both arenas, and I just think west Ham's 312 00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:12,680 Speaker 2: road metrics are going to catch up with them eventually. 313 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:17,040 Speaker 2: And I just don't know, you know, what they look like. 314 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:21,160 Speaker 2: Their defense is a little questionable, and you know, they 315 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:24,080 Speaker 2: do have a lot of good attacking pieces, but you know, 316 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 2: I'm just not sure if they can replicate the metrics 317 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:32,320 Speaker 2: from last season. And then Lester, I mean, their defense 318 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 2: is bad, that's the easiest way I can say it. 319 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 2: And they got They were one of the teams alongside 320 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:40,480 Speaker 2: of Wolves, that were very lucky last season to not 321 00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 2: concede as many times as they were expected to do so, 322 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:48,160 Speaker 2: So I think that west Ham and Lester, I think 323 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 2: you could see some dips in the table for them 324 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:52,680 Speaker 2: by the end of By the end of this season, 325 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:53,920 Speaker 2: I agree. 326 00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 1: My biggest concern, especially with Leicester, is a lot of 327 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 1: people love Jamie Vardy with reason. He's a hilarious, hysterical 328 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:06,439 Speaker 1: character who's also a fantastic goalscorer. But it's also getting 329 00:17:06,480 --> 00:17:11,200 Speaker 1: old and the cliff. That cliff is real steep. When 330 00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:14,280 Speaker 1: it comes to the game of soccer. It's very rare 331 00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 1: that you see that that much success. Not everyone is 332 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:20,879 Speaker 1: Chris Wandlowski. And as you get older, that pensant for 333 00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:23,560 Speaker 1: scoring starts to go down, the pensiont for injury starts 334 00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:25,959 Speaker 1: to go up. That's what really worries me about this 335 00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:28,920 Speaker 1: Lester team. That's why I know you and I were 336 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:32,919 Speaker 1: talking about this the other day. The top Midlands club 337 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 1: Lester and Aston Villa are both right there at plus 338 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 1: one twenty five apiece, and I'm with you. I'm inclined 339 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:42,439 Speaker 1: to take a little bit of Aston Villa there and 340 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 1: hope that you see some regression with Lester and Villa 341 00:17:46,720 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 1: end up being quite as good as we hope that 342 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,200 Speaker 1: they're going to be this season and you can cash 343 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:53,400 Speaker 1: in instead of going with them tough to finish top 344 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:55,440 Speaker 1: ten at minus one ten, you can get a little 345 00:17:55,440 --> 00:17:56,480 Speaker 1: extra plus money on that. 346 00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, I actually think there's a case to be made 347 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:05,040 Speaker 2: for Aston Villa to be in a European spot this year. 348 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:09,440 Speaker 2: I think that, you know, that's a lot of pressure 349 00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 2: to put on a Steven Yard led team, especially he's 350 00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:16,400 Speaker 2: only been there what half a season now, But you know, 351 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:22,439 Speaker 2: they have such strength through the middle now that I 352 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 2: think they're going to be well set up to defend 353 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:28,320 Speaker 2: teams that including really good teams that like to play 354 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 2: through the middle. So I think that you know, there's 355 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:37,760 Speaker 2: a case to be made that all of you know, United, Leicester, 356 00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:41,359 Speaker 2: West Ham, I mean Brighton too, they sold to Eves 357 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:43,200 Speaker 2: Basuma this year. We don't know what they're going to 358 00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:46,119 Speaker 2: look like in the midfield without him, but I think 359 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:49,160 Speaker 2: you could even see Aston Villa in the Europa League 360 00:18:49,160 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 2: next year if all goes right for them, And you have. 361 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 1: To hope that all does go right and then we 362 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:55,879 Speaker 1: cash a couple bets there. But I think it's very 363 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 1: much within that realm of possibility. Want to track all 364 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:01,359 Speaker 1: of your wagers and in one place, check out the 365 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 1: Betting prospicktracker at bettingpros dot com slash picktracking. It syncs 366 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:07,840 Speaker 1: up with your sports books to tally which picks hit, 367 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:10,600 Speaker 1: which miss, and gives you a live look at what 368 00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 1: the public is doing, so you can use real time 369 00:19:13,359 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 1: tracking to determine which place to make and which to fade, 370 00:19:16,920 --> 00:19:19,160 Speaker 1: get on the leaderboard, and quickly become a sharp by 371 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:22,000 Speaker 1: using the free advice we offer at bettingpros dot com 372 00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 1: slash picktracking. Now, another thing that I want to get 373 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,119 Speaker 1: to with you here before we move on and break 374 00:19:29,160 --> 00:19:31,679 Speaker 1: down what an individual game looks like, because we know 375 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:33,400 Speaker 1: that that can be a little different for people who 376 00:19:33,400 --> 00:19:37,200 Speaker 1: are used to American sports betting. But first, home versus 377 00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 1: away teams. You talked about teams having great home form 378 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:42,160 Speaker 1: and terrible away for him and how much that that 379 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 1: can really affect your long term season chances. But how 380 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 1: big of a deal is home field advantage in the 381 00:19:50,640 --> 00:19:53,639 Speaker 1: Premier League Because a lot of people here don't quite 382 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 1: understand it's not quite like the NFL. Those environments are 383 00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:01,720 Speaker 1: much much more similar to a college football atmosphere over here, 384 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 1: and it can play a serious factor even though the 385 00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,400 Speaker 1: travel is a minuscule amount compared to America. 386 00:20:09,160 --> 00:20:12,000 Speaker 2: There is an argument to be made that home field 387 00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:15,560 Speaker 2: advantage in English Premier League is the most important among 388 00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:20,160 Speaker 2: all sports betting. It's like, based on the data I've 389 00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:24,240 Speaker 2: looked at it might be more important than the NFL. 390 00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:28,320 Speaker 2: Just last season, and again I'm going off expected metrics 391 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,760 Speaker 2: here that there are teams that finish with negative goal 392 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:34,560 Speaker 2: differences at home. Just last season, twelve teams had a 393 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:39,919 Speaker 2: positive expected gold differential on their home turf. Only four 394 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:44,240 Speaker 2: had a positive expected gold differential on the road. Those 395 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 2: whore teams were City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham. 396 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:50,920 Speaker 1: I see a connection here, Yeah, so. 397 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:54,920 Speaker 2: You it's and again some people might be like, Nick, 398 00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:58,520 Speaker 2: that's a really small sample, and you're right. But if 399 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:02,919 Speaker 2: you look at the last four years, take all eighty teams. 400 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:07,119 Speaker 2: Of those four years, forty four have had a positive 401 00:21:07,240 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 2: expected gold differential at home in the and that's been 402 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:13,679 Speaker 2: only twenty five have had a positive expective or twenty 403 00:21:13,760 --> 00:21:17,439 Speaker 2: excuse me, have had a positive expected gold differential on 404 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:20,600 Speaker 2: the road. That is, that is almost a thirty percent 405 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:25,240 Speaker 2: net change. So I think that it is so important 406 00:21:25,520 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 2: to the point where I'm honestly considering only beending on 407 00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:32,440 Speaker 2: home teams this year, Like I don't foresee I need 408 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 2: to go back and look through some of my bets 409 00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:37,399 Speaker 2: to see what, you know, what the breakdown is in 410 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,919 Speaker 2: terms of my home versus road bets. But I just 411 00:21:41,000 --> 00:21:44,440 Speaker 2: think it's so important that these teams defend home deal, 412 00:21:44,640 --> 00:21:47,320 Speaker 2: especially the teams that are fighting at the bottom. And 413 00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:50,440 Speaker 2: you know, Tom, a big reason Everton survived last year 414 00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:52,800 Speaker 2: was because they played so well at home down the 415 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:58,359 Speaker 2: stretch and actually finished with a positive expected gold differential 416 00:21:58,400 --> 00:22:04,119 Speaker 2: at home. So it is so important that Again for 417 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:06,440 Speaker 2: a lot of new soccer betters, if you're looking at 418 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,600 Speaker 2: odds and being like, well, why is you know, why 419 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:14,199 Speaker 2: is Brighton a home favorite against let's say Manchester United 420 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:18,159 Speaker 2: for example. That's why it's because it's so important that 421 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:21,280 Speaker 2: these teams get points that they're on their you know, 422 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:27,479 Speaker 2: home turf. So it is so important and really something 423 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:29,600 Speaker 2: that people need to take into account when you're making 424 00:22:29,600 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 2: your bets. 425 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:34,080 Speaker 1: Now, Nick, you talk about that home field advantage being 426 00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:36,960 Speaker 1: so important, and that's actually something that I didn't take 427 00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:40,680 Speaker 1: into my handicapping when I first started betting soccer because 428 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:43,679 Speaker 1: I took a look at, you know, the country and 429 00:22:43,720 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 1: I said, your farthest travel time is an hour and 430 00:22:46,800 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 1: a half. That's cake compared to a six hour, three 431 00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,520 Speaker 1: time zone trip from the east coast to the West 432 00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:55,919 Speaker 1: coast or vice versa. And I was like, how how 433 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:58,359 Speaker 1: big could it really be. It is that atmosphere, it 434 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:00,760 Speaker 1: is that fan sport that actually does make a huge 435 00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 1: difference in this league. But you talk about being able 436 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,280 Speaker 1: to get points at home, and that doesn't always mean 437 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:09,320 Speaker 1: a win. The way soccer betting works and the thing 438 00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:11,920 Speaker 1: that trips up a lot of people that come from 439 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,480 Speaker 1: traditional American sports. Where As the great Ted Lasso said, 440 00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:18,439 Speaker 1: if you tried to end an American sporting event in 441 00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:20,960 Speaker 1: a tie, it would be listed in revelations as a 442 00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:24,480 Speaker 1: sign of the apocalypse. Well, in England we get plenty 443 00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:27,760 Speaker 1: of draws, and in soccer that means that the betting 444 00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:30,840 Speaker 1: is a little bit different. You can bet on a 445 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:34,040 Speaker 1: quote unquote spread that operates much more like a run 446 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:37,639 Speaker 1: line in baseball or a puck line in hockey than 447 00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:41,359 Speaker 1: it does an NFL or NBA spread. It's always traditionally 448 00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,280 Speaker 1: it runs the gamut of half a goal, a goal 449 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,440 Speaker 1: goal and a half, et cetera. But if you want 450 00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:50,360 Speaker 1: to bet a team strictly on the money line, it's 451 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,600 Speaker 1: not a two way bet, it's a three way bet 452 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,320 Speaker 1: because the draw is listed as an option. This can 453 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,320 Speaker 1: trip a lot of people up. You bet on a 454 00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: team they end up tying and you say, okay, well 455 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:01,960 Speaker 1: I get my money back on a push right, No, 456 00:24:02,280 --> 00:24:04,159 Speaker 1: it is three way betting. That is a loss for 457 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:06,160 Speaker 1: you because you have the option to bet the draw. 458 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:10,040 Speaker 1: And what that also does is it can change up 459 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,600 Speaker 1: these odds quite a little bit. And let's, for example, 460 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:15,040 Speaker 1: we're not going to break through the entire Premier League slapies. 461 00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:17,760 Speaker 1: We'll be here for another hour. People want to see that, 462 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,120 Speaker 1: they can head on over and find your work over 463 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:23,640 Speaker 1: at Action. But just pulling up one of these games here. 464 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:28,080 Speaker 1: Next Saturday, Everton is taken on Chelsea. Chelsea is a 465 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:31,320 Speaker 1: minus one forty five favorite. Here, Everton is four to 466 00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 1: one and the draw is plus two to eighty five. Now, 467 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,480 Speaker 1: if you're approaching this game and you want to bet it, 468 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,679 Speaker 1: you can in fact bet on the tie. And you 469 00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:44,159 Speaker 1: see here Chelsea a four hundred to minus one forty 470 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:48,640 Speaker 1: five straddle makes no sense on a two way line, 471 00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:50,320 Speaker 1: but when you get to this three lay line, all 472 00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:51,880 Speaker 1: of a sudden, it starts to make a lot more sense. 473 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,280 Speaker 1: How often is it that you can expect to turn 474 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:56,879 Speaker 1: a profit if you bet on a draw? Is that 475 00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,280 Speaker 1: something that people should be looking to or traditionally staying 476 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 1: away from. 477 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,280 Speaker 2: I don't think I bet on a single draw money 478 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:05,680 Speaker 2: line last year. If I'm being honest like I I 479 00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:09,320 Speaker 2: it's it is so difficult if you're only betting that, 480 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:13,719 Speaker 2: just save your money. Don't bet soccer like it's it 481 00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:17,320 Speaker 2: is impossible outcome to predict. I will say it's a 482 00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 2: very fun sweat because you get to change your rooting 483 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:24,280 Speaker 2: allegiances as the game goes on. So it is, you know, 484 00:25:24,480 --> 00:25:29,960 Speaker 2: it's fun from time to time. But it's also very unpredictable, 485 00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:33,280 Speaker 2: and oftentimes the draws are between teams you would have 486 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,400 Speaker 2: never expected them to come from. I mean it's not 487 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:40,480 Speaker 2: like you're seeing draws between let's say you know, Everton 488 00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,960 Speaker 2: plays Palace like two teams that on paper should be 489 00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:48,080 Speaker 2: pretty equal. No, Usually you're getting draws because a team 490 00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 2: wildly underperforms it's expected gold differential and can't convert scoring chances. 491 00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,680 Speaker 2: I mean, you look last year you had a draw. 492 00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:57,840 Speaker 2: The first one that comes to mind is you know 493 00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:01,200 Speaker 2: Leads and City. I think I think drew last year 494 00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:05,119 Speaker 2: at one point, you know, Tottenham and Liverpool at some 495 00:26:05,200 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 2: point again that they're sort of on equal footing, But 496 00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:11,600 Speaker 2: that match was because Liverpool couldn't convert their chances. I 497 00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:14,880 Speaker 2: think Liverpool won the expected goal battle by almost one 498 00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,879 Speaker 2: and a half goals. So it's a very fickle market. 499 00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:21,480 Speaker 2: To try to predict. The easiest way I can explain it, 500 00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,920 Speaker 2: it's kind of like betting the drawn baccarat. It's not 501 00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:27,960 Speaker 2: really people like, oh wow, like I can get three 502 00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:30,720 Speaker 2: to one, almost three to one on Everton and Chelsea 503 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:34,440 Speaker 2: drawing in a match. Like on paper, that looks appealing, 504 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:39,480 Speaker 2: but it's it's really tough to be a sustained profitable 505 00:26:39,520 --> 00:26:42,160 Speaker 2: better if you're only betting the draw moneyline. 506 00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 1: Now, when you do approach an individual game, how are 507 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:48,480 Speaker 1: you breaking it down and what makes you What is 508 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:50,560 Speaker 1: it that you look at at a number that makes 509 00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:52,280 Speaker 1: you say I want to take this number, Like how 510 00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,359 Speaker 1: much juice is too much juice to be laying with 511 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,160 Speaker 1: some of these teams? What should people be looking at? 512 00:26:58,040 --> 00:27:03,040 Speaker 2: I try to and this is very unique I think 513 00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,639 Speaker 2: in soccer petting is I try to get as many 514 00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:11,119 Speaker 2: different outcomes as possible with a bet. So I usually 515 00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:15,359 Speaker 2: look for games between mid table teams with what we 516 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,920 Speaker 2: call draw no bet goal lines, which is actually if 517 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:20,879 Speaker 2: the match does end in a draw, you'll get your 518 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 2: money back, and that is sort of a good wit indicator, 519 00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:29,719 Speaker 2: but I really look for teams that are you know, 520 00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:34,199 Speaker 2: positive we talked about earlier positive and negative regression. But 521 00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:38,040 Speaker 2: you know, I want as many outcomes as possible with 522 00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:40,760 Speaker 2: any given bet. So if you're giving me plus a 523 00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:44,240 Speaker 2: half perfect example like City and Liverpool last year at 524 00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:47,880 Speaker 2: the etch you had, you're giving me two outcomes with Liverpool, 525 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:51,560 Speaker 2: whereas you're only getting one with City based on the 526 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:52,960 Speaker 2: closing line of that game. 527 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:55,920 Speaker 1: And I thought, and when you're talking about a plus 528 00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,280 Speaker 1: a half goal, what that is is you're betting on 529 00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:02,400 Speaker 1: a spread line where you have Liverpool plus literally half 530 00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:04,800 Speaker 1: a point. So if the game is and in a draw, 531 00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 1: instead of you losing your bet, you win because you 532 00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,640 Speaker 1: have Liverpool to win plus if it's a draw, you win. 533 00:28:10,680 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 2: That yes exactly, And I think that you know you're 534 00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:19,560 Speaker 2: you're looking for teams that are sort of undervalued, that 535 00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:23,280 Speaker 2: are you know you're getting multiple outcomes with Like a 536 00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:25,439 Speaker 2: perfect example of that too is last year. I know 537 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,880 Speaker 2: I bet Leeds at home against Wolves and they were 538 00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:31,399 Speaker 2: I think minus one twenty five on the draw no 539 00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,560 Speaker 2: bet line, so if they won the match, it cash is. 540 00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:36,240 Speaker 2: But if it's a push, it's no harm, no falul, 541 00:28:36,280 --> 00:28:39,320 Speaker 2: you get my money back. So I'm looking for teams. 542 00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,720 Speaker 2: But you know, from a handicapping perspective, you also want 543 00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:46,040 Speaker 2: to look at like situational analysis, and one of the 544 00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,560 Speaker 2: big things I look at is how teams perform against 545 00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 2: pressure versus how they play against teams that you know 546 00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:53,560 Speaker 2: just like to sit back and let them have the 547 00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:56,840 Speaker 2: ball and you know, let teams come to them and 548 00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:58,760 Speaker 2: try to beat them on the counter. The other thing 549 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:00,840 Speaker 2: you want to look at is set piece, is how 550 00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:05,320 Speaker 2: teams perform in dead ball situations. Some teams are awful 551 00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:09,080 Speaker 2: when it comes to defending corners, free kicks, Everton Leicester 552 00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:13,160 Speaker 2: last year was awful. Funnily enough, last year the team 553 00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:17,440 Speaker 2: that was the best at corners, free kick, set pieces, 554 00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:22,320 Speaker 2: everything was Brentford and when it's very odd that when 555 00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 2: they played Lester who was terrible at that, they lost 556 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:27,040 Speaker 2: both matches. So maybe there's a little bit of a 557 00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:30,200 Speaker 2: flaw there. But you know, you do want to look 558 00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:34,560 Speaker 2: for situational handicapping angles and see how teams you know, 559 00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:39,200 Speaker 2: perform against like opposition as well. Like certain teams Watford 560 00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:42,160 Speaker 2: last season as a perfect example, can't couldn't defend against 561 00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,440 Speaker 2: the Big Six. They just couldn't. So I was taking 562 00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:47,000 Speaker 2: a team total every single time, like even if it 563 00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:49,440 Speaker 2: was two and a half juiced to minus one twenty five, 564 00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,840 Speaker 2: I was betting it because you just look at their 565 00:29:53,240 --> 00:29:56,800 Speaker 2: consistent results against you know, the Big Six. It wasn't good. 566 00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,400 Speaker 2: So that's those are some of the things I tend 567 00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:03,080 Speaker 2: to look for. I'm sitting down the better match, which 568 00:30:03,120 --> 00:30:04,320 Speaker 2: we're going to be doing in a week. 569 00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:07,880 Speaker 1: Yes we are. It is almost here. I'm so excited 570 00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:11,360 Speaker 1: sports are finally back. The summer doldrums are over. Although 571 00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:14,320 Speaker 1: I have had a fantastic time betting MLS, which I 572 00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:17,280 Speaker 1: still do genuinely believe is pound for pound, the most 573 00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:21,080 Speaker 1: entertaining soccer league that you can watch. But I know 574 00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:23,600 Speaker 1: that people love the top skill of the top flight 575 00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:26,320 Speaker 1: in the Premier League, and it's going to be so 576 00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:28,160 Speaker 1: exciting to have that back. It's going to be another 577 00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,120 Speaker 1: fun season one more time. Nick, thank you so much 578 00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:32,760 Speaker 1: for joining us. Where can people find you in the 579 00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:33,560 Speaker 1: great work you're doing. 580 00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:36,520 Speaker 2: You can find me on Twitter at Nick Henny and 581 00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,200 Speaker 2: h E. N n Ion. That is the easiest place 582 00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:40,840 Speaker 2: to get all my work, or you can head to 583 00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:44,120 Speaker 2: the Action Network website or the New York Posts Sports 584 00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:47,160 Speaker 2: Betting section. Those are where you can find all my 585 00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:49,600 Speaker 2: beautiful soccer betting analysis. 586 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,920 Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen. Thank you so much for checking us 587 00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:55,480 Speaker 1: out today. Don't forget, like subscribe and share, you know 588 00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:57,520 Speaker 1: the drill. Hit us with that five star review on 589 00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:01,120 Speaker 1: the podcast and be sure to leave us a rating 590 00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,320 Speaker 1: on the podcast platform of your choice. Hit that subscribe 591 00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,760 Speaker 1: button and follow at Betting Pros on Twitter. You can 592 00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:10,440 Speaker 1: follow me at TV at work, and don't forget head 593 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:13,560 Speaker 1: on over to Bettingpros dot com slash chat. Join the Discord. 594 00:31:13,840 --> 00:31:17,000 Speaker 1: Soccer season is upon us. We have a fantastic soccer 595 00:31:17,040 --> 00:31:21,840 Speaker 1: community full of hardcore handicappers who are very excited to 596 00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:25,200 Speaker 1: greet you, to walk you through betting on this league, 597 00:31:25,280 --> 00:31:27,520 Speaker 1: and we all are trying to win money together. It's 598 00:31:27,560 --> 00:31:31,400 Speaker 1: a fantastic community. Come be a part of it. We've 599 00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:35,520 Speaker 1: got Discord channels for everything you could possibly imagine, from football, basketball, 600 00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:40,080 Speaker 1: baseball all the way over to soccer, fighting, sports, racing, 601 00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:41,960 Speaker 1: you name it, we've got it. Head on over to 602 00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:44,920 Speaker 1: Bettingpros dot com slash chat and in the meantime, guys, 603 00:31:44,920 --> 00:31:47,480 Speaker 1: best of luck on the football season. Best of luck 604 00:31:47,520 --> 00:32:01,520 Speaker 1: on the football season and we will see you next episode.