1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:22,800 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 5 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:25,800 Speaker 3: You can also watch the show live on YouTube. 6 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:30,120 Speaker 2: Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the 7 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:33,720 Speaker 2: show weekday mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from 8 00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:37,199 Speaker 2: our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the 9 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:41,159 Speaker 2: podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen and 10 00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:44,199 Speaker 2: always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg. 11 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 3: Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. 12 00:00:46,440 --> 00:00:48,720 Speaker 2: It is one of the most coveted research notes on 13 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:52,160 Speaker 2: Wall Street. We protect the copyright of all our guests. 14 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 2: Go to Data Trek Research to get the wisdom of 15 00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,400 Speaker 2: Nick Kolis, where thrilled he could join us this morning. 16 00:00:58,480 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 3: Nick, I like what you. 17 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 2: Say in paragraph four. You've got a gross polarity between 18 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:05,840 Speaker 2: Nasdaq one hundred melt up right now, up one point 19 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:10,960 Speaker 2: four percent this morning and gold on GCA printing twenty 20 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 2: seven zero five. How can gold be so different from 21 00:01:15,280 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 2: Nasdaq one hundred. 22 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, fat, It's a fascinating topic. We kind of think 23 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:23,399 Speaker 4: of gold as a static valuable asset, and the NASDAK 24 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 4: is the value of human ingenuity. And what's interesting is 25 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:29,040 Speaker 4: they're both kind of working right now, and usually it's 26 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 4: one or the other, and we're getting both at the 27 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:35,040 Speaker 4: same time for different reasons than Nasdaq because human ingenuity 28 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 4: is working, you know, the AI thing works and chip 29 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 4: stocks are the center of it right now, and gold 30 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 4: is working because central banks around the world viewed as 31 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:47,840 Speaker 4: a viable alternative to buying sovereign debt in terms of 32 00:01:47,880 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 4: holding incremental reserve value. So you got both working. But 33 00:01:52,160 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 4: it is very strange. 34 00:01:54,200 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 2: You are going to write this morning on China going 35 00:01:56,920 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 2: from monetary to fiscal stimulus and what's three days? 36 00:02:00,880 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 3: Seventy two hours? 37 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 2: I flunked it in seventy two hours, Nicolis, How do 38 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:08,520 Speaker 2: you fold China into the American equity market? 39 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 4: Ooh, that is a great questions, So I'm going on. 40 00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:17,920 Speaker 4: I was just looking at the five year chart of MCCHI, 41 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:21,520 Speaker 4: the MSCI China ATF and I'd say anybody who's in 42 00:02:21,520 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 4: front of a terminal should do that right now because 43 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:27,959 Speaker 4: MCCHI is trading below where it was five years ago 44 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 4: by a considerable margin. So people keep looking for this 45 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 4: China trade to finally catch up. Maybe this is a 46 00:02:34,520 --> 00:02:37,520 Speaker 4: stimulus that against to get us there. We're pretty skeptical 47 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 4: at data trek, but I understand why people would want 48 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:40,239 Speaker 4: to believe. 49 00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 5: So where are we in the announcement of these monetary 50 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:46,720 Speaker 5: and fiscal policies. I think Tom and I both kind 51 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 5: of godsmacked by how quickly this has been unrolled by 52 00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 5: the Chinese government. Are we a point at which this 53 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:55,079 Speaker 5: seems like something that is remotely investibule or is there 54 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:57,200 Speaker 5: still a moment here to kind of pause and wait 55 00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 5: to see what else might be coming from Beijing. 56 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 4: You know, the central issue with these, with any of 57 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 4: these attempts over the last couple of years by the 58 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 4: Chinese government is you have a series of monetary and 59 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 4: fiscal policy actions, but then you have this very different 60 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 4: perspective from government regulators, where yes, they want the economy 61 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 4: to improve, but they don't want to give too much 62 00:03:19,240 --> 00:03:22,680 Speaker 4: power back to the very wealthy or to the corporations. 63 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:27,160 Speaker 4: And that tension has been really damaging for Chinese equity 64 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:31,080 Speaker 4: market investors sentiments and until you see the other side 65 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 4: of the coin also begin to maybe pick its finger 66 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 4: off the scale a little bit. It's going to be 67 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 4: tough to bet too much on this term, but certainly 68 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 4: you're right that thesepts have been very dramatically, very impressive. 69 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 5: Michael Mobison was with us yesterday and we talked about 70 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:46,320 Speaker 5: this moment for small cap stocks. We talked a lot 71 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:49,119 Speaker 5: about through the Magnificent Seven and the run that they've had, 72 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 5: the level of concentration that we've been experiencing over these 73 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 5: last many months. I'd love your perspective on that as 74 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 5: well as sort of how much opportunity there is, how 75 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 5: much emphasis we should place on small cap company. 76 00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, Mike, Mike. Mike's a great guy. Worked with him 77 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 4: all through the nineteen nineties at the old First Boston, 78 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 4: so have a lot of respect for him. My view 79 00:04:08,560 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 4: on small caps is you need the stars to align 80 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:14,600 Speaker 4: pretty precisely to get the russell to work really well. 81 00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 4: And we've seen that twice now, just in the last 82 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:18,880 Speaker 4: three or four months. You had that big rip in 83 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:21,880 Speaker 4: July and then they fell apart again, and you're beginning 84 00:04:21,880 --> 00:04:24,560 Speaker 4: to get that rip again now, but it's much more tentative, 85 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 4: and what you need to see is a combination of 86 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:31,760 Speaker 4: lower interest rates, lower high yield spreads, and a lot 87 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 4: of investor confidence in the US economy, and as great 88 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:36,799 Speaker 4: as it is to see the chip stops working again, 89 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:38,840 Speaker 4: it kind of tells me that the small caps are 90 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:40,920 Speaker 4: going to be on the back bench until we kind 91 00:04:40,960 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 4: of hit maximum investor enthusiasm towards the end of the 92 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:44,839 Speaker 4: fourth quarter. 93 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:48,040 Speaker 2: Nick, we're on a street care. We had Michael Mobison yesterday, 94 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 2: as David Gerra mentions in iconic credits like Mason on 95 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley. We have Nick Cholis today. I mean, you 96 00:04:55,440 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 2: can't do better than that. And tomorrow folks scheduled Nicholas 97 00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 2: not seeing teleeb who changed the world with full by randomness, Nick, 98 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:08,600 Speaker 2: I want to go to Tulleb's wonderful effort anti fragile. 99 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:13,560 Speaker 2: Anti fragility a property of systems in which they increase 100 00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:19,279 Speaker 2: in capability to the result of stressors, shocks, volatility, noise, 101 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:25,560 Speaker 2: and un see football. Are we is America prospering, Nick Cholis, 102 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 2: because we have Telebian anti fragility where we're not afraid 103 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 2: of stressors and shocks and mistakes. 104 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 4: I think that America by nature is psychologically anti fragile. 105 00:05:40,080 --> 00:05:44,080 Speaker 4: Americans are very optimistic people. They don't worry about making mistakes. 106 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 4: And they don't criticize people that fail, at least in business. 107 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:49,839 Speaker 4: You know, there are always second and third acts in 108 00:05:49,839 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 4: the American society, and I think by nature we are 109 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 4: anti fragile. The systems we create might not be, but 110 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,159 Speaker 4: I think our psychology is deeply in that direction. 111 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 3: And I don't see that in China. 112 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:03,480 Speaker 2: Discuss do you see any of that within in Foreign 113 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:07,880 Speaker 2: Affairs magazine A brilliant essay here Rushier Sharma writing it 114 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:11,600 Speaker 2: up in others about a Marxist Leninist regime. I mean, 115 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:15,280 Speaker 2: that's that's Friedberg at Georgetown, I believe writing on that 116 00:06:15,680 --> 00:06:19,160 Speaker 2: is Does China have any anti fragility? 117 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,200 Speaker 4: Surelie not to degree the US doesn't. I think the 118 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 4: US is unique literally around the world. We talk about 119 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:28,880 Speaker 4: American exceptionalism as a concept. This is where America is exceptional. 120 00:06:28,960 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 4: Our ability to keep bouncing back from mistakes, try again, 121 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 4: try again, try again, until we get something right, whether 122 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 4: it be in business or politics or anything else. And 123 00:06:38,400 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 4: I think it's unique to our culture. 124 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 2: Nicholas, thank you so much, greatly appreciated that. With data 125 00:06:43,800 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 2: Track this morning, I got ghostb I got ducky bumps. 126 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:49,840 Speaker 2: I mean we got momas and Colas Taleb and Michael 127 00:06:49,880 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 2: Barr All. 128 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 5: For Michael Barr it's the smart one or no particular order. 129 00:06:55,680 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 2: It's just too much. Nicolas, thank you so much. We 130 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 2: need to get right to our guests. David and I 131 00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:13,080 Speaker 2: can talk all day and monopolize you, forget about it. 132 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 2: More important is Rob sank and tying all things together. 133 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 3: It's City group. I want to go to China, and 134 00:07:20,080 --> 00:07:20,720 Speaker 3: I thought I'd. 135 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 2: Have to wait for at least two cups of tang 136 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 2: and senka to get to fiscal support. 137 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:28,080 Speaker 3: It happened in twenty four hours, forty eight hours. 138 00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 2: The polit Bureau comes out today and says they will 139 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 2: provide fiscal stimulus to China. 140 00:07:33,880 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 3: What is that signal? 141 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 6: Yeah, and I was like you as well. 142 00:07:36,880 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 7: I thought this would be drip drip stimulus throughout the 143 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 7: year and maybe we get some more in twenty twenty five. 144 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 7: This shows that China can move on a dime. We 145 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:47,640 Speaker 7: saw that earlier in the cycle when they opened the 146 00:07:47,640 --> 00:07:50,960 Speaker 7: floodgates a game rid of their zero COVID policy. Now 147 00:07:50,960 --> 00:07:53,680 Speaker 7: what does it mean? You know, it's good news. It's 148 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:56,240 Speaker 7: more than I would have expected. But we'll have to 149 00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:59,360 Speaker 7: see how the boots hit the ground and how the 150 00:07:59,400 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 7: stimulus impacts the economy. Right now, we have a consumer 151 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 7: there who's very unwilling to spend. Confidence is very low, 152 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 7: and the economy has been mostly supported by the external sector. 153 00:08:10,640 --> 00:08:13,000 Speaker 7: So we'll see if the stimulus is able to lift 154 00:08:13,040 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 7: animal spirits. I think it's good news, but we'll have 155 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 7: to wait see how effective it is. 156 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 5: I go back to the conversation that we had in 157 00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 5: the lead up to the FED meeting last week, and 158 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 5: there was the speculation that if the FED were to 159 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:25,080 Speaker 5: go big, that would showcase panic on the part of 160 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 5: the Central Bank. Let's step back and look at these 161 00:08:28,280 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 5: actions by the Chinese government, by the PBOC, explain to 162 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 5: us sort of why they're moving on a dime, why 163 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 5: they feel the need to do this, How urgent the 164 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:38,880 Speaker 5: situation is in the Chinese economy more broadly. 165 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:41,559 Speaker 7: Yeah, it's a great question, and I think probably they 166 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 7: were looking at an economy, as we were, that was 167 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 7: at real risk of falling short of their growth target. 168 00:08:47,559 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 7: We recently marked down growth a bit more this year 169 00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:53,800 Speaker 7: prior to these announcements and growth next year. I know 170 00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 7: others have been marking down growth as well, and we 171 00:08:56,600 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 7: had seen risk still skewed to the downside and had 172 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:01,080 Speaker 7: not been expecting any type of large simmis. So I 173 00:09:01,120 --> 00:09:03,439 Speaker 7: think they're seeing the data that's been coming over the 174 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 7: last few months, which has been broadly softer than expected, 175 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 7: and the soft data signaling even more softness. So I 176 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 7: think they got spooked by the data. 177 00:09:11,480 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 2: Andrew hollin Horst this morning is looking at Euroswissy, along 178 00:09:14,880 --> 00:09:18,280 Speaker 2: with everybody else on Global Wall Street, the Swiss National Bank, 179 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:21,560 Speaker 2: as they did in twenty fifteen X they' say enough 180 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:25,040 Speaker 2: with Swiss Frank's strength, we're going to cut interest rates 181 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 2: to protect our economy. How does that tie in for 182 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 2: our American listeners and viewers to see smb C. 183 00:09:32,280 --> 00:09:37,360 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think really what that signals is a that 184 00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 7: the exchange rate does play a role in a lot 185 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:42,839 Speaker 7: of how these central banks think, and as the FED 186 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,840 Speaker 7: is easing policy more broadly, we think that opens the 187 00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 7: door for other central banks to ease as well. 188 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:49,400 Speaker 4: They don't have to. 189 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 3: Work's one big global rate cut. 190 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:52,120 Speaker 7: It's one big global rate cut. 191 00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 3: J Powell is Good Morning, Bill Rhodes, the Wonderful Bill Roads. 192 00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:58,680 Speaker 3: J Powell is Central Banker to the World. 193 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:01,000 Speaker 7: Japallis Central Banker to the world, and I think this 194 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:03,280 Speaker 7: is going to open the door, especially of the FED, 195 00:10:04,120 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 7: as Andrew's been writing, continues to go more aggressively. That's 196 00:10:07,520 --> 00:10:10,040 Speaker 7: going to open up the door for these other central banks. 197 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:11,720 Speaker 3: Today they nailed the vector. I mean they nailed it 198 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 3: going up. I'm this Hollimar's kid. 199 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:15,520 Speaker 2: First of all, he went to UCLA. 200 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:18,840 Speaker 3: David, what is Colline in Los Angeles? 201 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 4: Well? 202 00:10:19,280 --> 00:10:20,520 Speaker 5: Are you kissing a lucky man? 203 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:22,319 Speaker 2: I mean, he nailed it going up, and now he's 204 00:10:22,400 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 2: nailing it going down with a lot of raid cuts 205 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:24,960 Speaker 2: to come. 206 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,439 Speaker 5: Ron, what are you listening for today? When we get 207 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 5: this pre tape recording from the FED share This has 208 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 5: been a week a cacophony of FED speakers. Now the 209 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:34,400 Speaker 5: big one comes out and gives what I guess we'll 210 00:10:34,440 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 5: each the ten minutes remarks pre recorded as I say, 211 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,079 Speaker 5: what are you listening for? What it's going to give you? 212 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 5: Any indication of sort of where we're headed from those 213 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:42,280 Speaker 5: remarks today? 214 00:10:42,520 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 7: That's great question. I think for this one, I'm not 215 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:47,080 Speaker 7: looking for too much because I don't think we've gotten 216 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,360 Speaker 7: a lot of data that can really move the needle. 217 00:10:49,400 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 7: So I think it's going to sound pretty similar to 218 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 7: how the last decision sound and how he sounded during 219 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:57,120 Speaker 7: his press conference, But more broadly from the Fed, I'm 220 00:10:57,120 --> 00:11:00,840 Speaker 7: really looking for, you know, how can earned are they 221 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 7: about the dynamics in the labor market. I don't think 222 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 7: it's about inflation that much for them anymore. They're not 223 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 7: worried about the upside risk. They said, they're not going 224 00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:10,400 Speaker 7: to deteriorate much more weakness in the labor market. They 225 00:11:10,400 --> 00:11:13,800 Speaker 7: tell us the think we think that the labor you know, 226 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:16,559 Speaker 7: Andrew's team thinks that the labor market's going to continue 227 00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:18,760 Speaker 7: to weakend they're gonna have to go fifty again. And 228 00:11:18,760 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 7: they've very told us where that bar is. They sell 229 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:22,840 Speaker 7: it in their summary of economic projections. 230 00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:24,680 Speaker 6: A little bit. 231 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:28,679 Speaker 2: Five point zero percent is like bigger than down ten thousand. 232 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,120 Speaker 7: Well, if you get that high, as as as our 233 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 7: team expects, you're going to get a rapid rate cutting cycle. 234 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:36,679 Speaker 7: But you know, if the unemployment rate kind of stays 235 00:11:36,679 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 7: near where it is and conditions stabilize, then you're gonna 236 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:41,360 Speaker 7: get a more gradual rate cutting cycle. So it really 237 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:42,760 Speaker 7: comes down to labor market conditions. 238 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:43,439 Speaker 3: Twenty seconds. 239 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 2: You want to comment on why the yank the Yankees 240 00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:46,720 Speaker 2: can't get it done. 241 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 7: I've m a long term Mets fan. I don't know 242 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:52,080 Speaker 7: if that cancels me on the podcast and why. 243 00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:55,360 Speaker 3: I saw walking into the stadium. Lennard's back is really bad. 244 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, absolutely, you know, I so on the Yankees and. 245 00:11:59,760 --> 00:12:01,679 Speaker 3: That's people on here. That's what I was asking you. 246 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 3: I was scared to say. Thursday, Rob Sock, and thank 247 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:07,679 Speaker 3: you so much. 248 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:15,000 Speaker 2: Another economic brief, and why are we doing this? We're 249 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:19,680 Speaker 2: doing this because all of this market hinges on the economy. 250 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 2: She's lucky, she's a Bemo Capital market. So Jennifer Lee 251 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 2: gets to throw things in Ian Lingen, who's just wonderful 252 00:12:27,360 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 2: in the fixed income market. She's not on speaking terms 253 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 2: with Brian Belski inequities. 254 00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:36,440 Speaker 3: Jennifer Lee synthesize for me. You guys at Bemo Capital 255 00:12:36,520 --> 00:12:40,360 Speaker 3: are just killing it. Lingoln looked for lower yields. Belski 256 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 3: has been a confirmed bull. What are you telling them 257 00:12:44,040 --> 00:12:45,600 Speaker 3: that makes this market move? 258 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:48,840 Speaker 1: So good morning, and thanks for having me on. By 259 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 1: the way, I love Ian and I love Brian, who's 260 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:58,520 Speaker 1: chippy across. So I mean, obviously things have been not 261 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 1: as bad as many econos had expected. You know, we 262 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 1: are continuing to stay in that whole soft landing camp, 263 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:07,439 Speaker 1: you know, which is helping, which you know Brian is 264 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:09,719 Speaker 1: obviously online with as well, and hence he's been a 265 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:13,880 Speaker 1: lot more optimistic or still optimistic as well. But again 266 00:13:13,920 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 1: things are just tapping on the brakes. As I say, 267 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:18,080 Speaker 1: month after month, you know, we're seeing slower economic data 268 00:13:18,120 --> 00:13:21,040 Speaker 1: in general, but totally to be expected, but we're not 269 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 1: certainly we're not slamming on the brakes. We've got some 270 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:27,160 Speaker 1: decent numbers this morning from on GDP on the UI claims, 271 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 1: front durables were okay as well. So again, tapping on 272 00:13:30,400 --> 00:13:32,959 Speaker 1: the brakes and that's what I guess that's the boat, 273 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 1: the best that we can hope for at this point, Jennifer. 274 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:38,080 Speaker 5: For something that we talked about yesterday was how abnormal 275 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:40,080 Speaker 5: this moment is, how far we are from what we 276 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 5: would consider to be normally when it comes to the 277 00:13:42,160 --> 00:13:45,080 Speaker 5: economy and monetary policy. And I'd love your perspective on 278 00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:47,320 Speaker 5: that as well, as you kind of chart out what 279 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:50,359 Speaker 5: the Fed may or may not do, how you acknowledge 280 00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:52,040 Speaker 5: the kind of strangeness of where. 281 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 1: We are, great question. So the strangeness is that after 282 00:13:56,600 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 1: five and twenty five basis points of hikes. You know, 283 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 1: the music on me still has to have to take 284 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 1: a significant step back again, slowing, tapping on the brakes 285 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 1: and all that. But you know, and I'll be quite 286 00:14:08,480 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 1: honest here, I was not in the fifty basis point 287 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:12,920 Speaker 1: rate cut camp. I was actually excuming it was gonna 288 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:15,080 Speaker 1: be twenty five. So I won't tell you what words 289 00:14:15,080 --> 00:14:16,640 Speaker 1: came out of my mouth when I saw the announcement, 290 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 1: but I mean I understand, you know, he was saying 291 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:21,280 Speaker 1: to Fridcherpowloll, saying, the economy is still, you know, in 292 00:14:21,360 --> 00:14:23,960 Speaker 1: decent shape. The US labor market is still also in 293 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,480 Speaker 1: decent shape, so let's just basically give them some It's 294 00:14:26,480 --> 00:14:27,840 Speaker 1: almost like, I guess, you know, you're kind of on 295 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:29,800 Speaker 1: the way to being sick, but you're not really full 296 00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 1: on sick yet. So let's give you some medicine now 297 00:14:32,080 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 1: to avoid that being full on sick, if you know 298 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 1: what I mean. 299 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:38,440 Speaker 3: Jennifer, give us a clinic. I'm tomorrow at eight thirty. 300 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 3: PCE is the Fed's favorite inflation indicator. I get it. 301 00:14:43,440 --> 00:14:46,160 Speaker 2: But are we, like I'm thinking Laurence Summers, are we 302 00:14:46,240 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 2: going to hear from PC tomorrow stagflation or some other 303 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 2: grand theme. 304 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:56,560 Speaker 1: So that's another great question. So we're looking for roughly 305 00:14:56,640 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 1: like steady ish reading on the deflator, just about a 306 00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:02,200 Speaker 1: point two percent increased month to month, about two six 307 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:02,920 Speaker 1: two seven. 308 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:04,080 Speaker 6: Year of a year. 309 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 1: You know, it's all going to be about focusing on 310 00:15:08,880 --> 00:15:10,840 Speaker 1: normally I would say, spending, but also the wages and 311 00:15:10,880 --> 00:15:14,280 Speaker 1: salaries component of consumers, workers that continue to see a 312 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 1: steady rise in wages and salar which is I think 313 00:15:16,920 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 1: the most important part of all this, because consumers need, 314 00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 1: you know, a job, they need steady wages, steady income, 315 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 1: just that security to give them confidence for the future. 316 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:27,960 Speaker 1: I think that is what is critical. So looking at 317 00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 1: what people are making on a month to month basis, 318 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 1: and of course what they're spending on. And the last 319 00:15:33,760 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 1: report on retail sales, if I can remember, you know, 320 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 1: it wasn't exactly broad based strength. You know, there was 321 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:42,520 Speaker 1: actually quite a few sectors that we're seeing that said 322 00:15:42,560 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 1: decline in sales. But even the discussionary edements were a 323 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:47,160 Speaker 1: little bit. You know, we saw some up and some down. 324 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 1: Dining out was a flat. So I still think we 325 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:52,520 Speaker 1: are still seeing some you know, consumers are still spending, 326 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:54,680 Speaker 1: they are still making a decent wage, but there were 327 00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:57,640 Speaker 1: definitely definitely more cautious on what they are spending on. 328 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:01,000 Speaker 5: Jennifer, let me ask you about the effects of the 329 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:04,240 Speaker 5: decision from last week as we look at Switzerland today, 330 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 5: perhaps we cast our right a Beijing as well, and 331 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 5: what that bank is doing. You may not have gotten 332 00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:12,720 Speaker 5: the fifty basis points right, I think your nine PhDs 333 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 5: did from many hundreds of We'll forgive that, but is 334 00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 5: this playing out the way that you thought it would. 335 00:16:18,680 --> 00:16:20,960 Speaker 5: Now that we're in this rate cutting cycle, we are 336 00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 5: seeing movement and change among other central banks around the world. 337 00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:28,280 Speaker 1: So a lot of the central banks, I think, you know, 338 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 1: because I think credibility is a huge factor for all 339 00:16:31,200 --> 00:16:33,280 Speaker 1: central bankers. You may without it, you know, they got 340 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 1: nothing right. So I think everyone has been very cautious 341 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:39,840 Speaker 1: on moving, especially the Federal Reserve. But now we're starting 342 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:42,280 Speaker 1: to see a little bit more I'm certain to thinking 343 00:16:42,320 --> 00:16:44,280 Speaker 1: maybe a bit more anxiety, only because all of a 344 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:47,600 Speaker 1: sudden we're seeing these fifty basis point moves. I think 345 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:49,400 Speaker 1: it was yesterday, it was the Ricks Bank yesterday that 346 00:16:49,520 --> 00:16:52,000 Speaker 1: said you know that you know they're going to you know, 347 00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 1: they cut twenty five, but then they said, then they 348 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 1: gave lots of bord guidance. You know, we're going to 349 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,120 Speaker 1: be cutting for the next the other two meetings that 350 00:16:58,200 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 1: remain for the rest of this year, and one of 351 00:16:59,880 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 1: the could be a fifty basis pointer. So it seems 352 00:17:02,720 --> 00:17:05,360 Speaker 1: like we're seeing more of that lately. So a bit 353 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:08,439 Speaker 1: more a tinge, more anxiety of perhaps just again to 354 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:10,880 Speaker 1: cut off the slow down, you know, before it gets 355 00:17:10,920 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 1: off to too much. And then of course with China, 356 00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:16,880 Speaker 1: the whole series of you know, they're acting almost every 357 00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:18,639 Speaker 1: day this week, and of course this you know, I 358 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:20,160 Speaker 1: don't know how much it's going to help the Chinese 359 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:23,480 Speaker 1: economy overall, because it's all about households and consumer confidence 360 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,320 Speaker 1: and all that. But I think this morning's news gives 361 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,119 Speaker 1: us a little bit more hope that you know, that 362 00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:30,280 Speaker 1: they are going to do whatever it takes, you know, 363 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 1: to borrow from Mariod Reggi, you know, to be that 364 00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:35,240 Speaker 1: to get to that about five percent growth target. 365 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:36,119 Speaker 3: Jennifer, Thank you. 366 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:38,679 Speaker 2: Jennifer le Vemo Capital Markets with us here looking at 367 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 2: the economy and the clear message there for me folks, 368 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:44,960 Speaker 2: solid economy and you see it with domestic final sales 369 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:45,240 Speaker 2: in er. 370 00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:46,400 Speaker 3: Vemo report. 371 00:17:56,359 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 2: With all of his expertise on the Eastern Hemis fear 372 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 2: is years in Moscow, and with Ethan Bronner Bloomberg, Israeli 373 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:08,840 Speaker 2: Bureau Chief with us as well, with his legacy of 374 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:12,919 Speaker 2: coverage an award for The New York Times. Mister Browner 375 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:16,800 Speaker 2: joins us this morning from a fractured Israel in Lebanon. 376 00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:21,800 Speaker 2: Jamana Basacci in her interview with I'man Salaam of Lebanon, 377 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:26,680 Speaker 2: their economy minister. Here's the quote from your story Lebanon. 378 00:18:27,240 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 2: We feel there is a lot of flexibility in the 379 00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 2: past twenty four hours from Hezbollah's side, discuss that Ethan, 380 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 2: is there a Hesbollah that mister Natyaho can speak to. 381 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:45,240 Speaker 8: Hi Tom, I'm not sure, and I'm not sure in fact, 382 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,360 Speaker 8: I mean this is this bizarre relationship between the government 383 00:18:48,400 --> 00:18:51,879 Speaker 8: in Lebanon and his Belah right, which is that in 384 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 8: the country of Lebanon, the government is less powerful than 385 00:18:54,800 --> 00:18:56,120 Speaker 8: the militia of his Belah. 386 00:18:56,600 --> 00:19:00,119 Speaker 6: So while he says that we have also heard. 387 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:04,679 Speaker 8: Nothing official from his Beelah about desiring to move forward 388 00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:07,080 Speaker 8: with this ceasefire. And there's another fact, of course, which 389 00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:09,960 Speaker 8: is that for eight or nine days Israel has been 390 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:15,960 Speaker 8: pummeling Hasbollah first with those booby trapped pagers and walkie talkies, 391 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 8: and then killing off a bunch of its top people, 392 00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:21,639 Speaker 8: and then bombing the hell out of a lot of 393 00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:25,440 Speaker 8: its launchers a couple of thousand spots. So it may 394 00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:28,040 Speaker 8: be that his Belah is in the mood to talk, 395 00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:32,679 Speaker 8: and conversely looks like Israel, feeling on the horse, is 396 00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:33,879 Speaker 8: not in the mood to talk. 397 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:37,000 Speaker 5: Ethan, the Prime Minister of Israel is making his way 398 00:19:37,000 --> 00:19:38,879 Speaker 5: to New York to address the UN tomorrow, and we 399 00:19:38,920 --> 00:19:40,879 Speaker 5: can talk a bit about that and the postponement of 400 00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:42,919 Speaker 5: that trip. But let me ask you first, if he 401 00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 5: meets with another world leader while he's here, and that 402 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 5: person says to him, what is the overall strategy? You 403 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:52,880 Speaker 5: talk about the explosive devices baked into these walkie talkies 404 00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 5: and pagers, the bombardments we've seen since then, what is 405 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:58,879 Speaker 5: the answer from the net and Yahoo administration about where 406 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:02,439 Speaker 5: this leads to, where what the broader military strategy is. 407 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:07,560 Speaker 8: So their view is that these militias like Hamas and 408 00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:12,240 Speaker 8: his Bela only respond to force. In the case of 409 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:16,040 Speaker 8: his Belah a year, don't forget in two thousand and six, 410 00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:19,800 Speaker 8: they fought a war, and after the war was over, 411 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:24,560 Speaker 8: UN Resolution seventeen oh one asserted that Habalah would disarm 412 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 8: and move twenty five to thirty kilometers away from the border, 413 00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:30,680 Speaker 8: with Israel's unanimously accepted. 414 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 6: They didn't disarm, they didn't move back. 415 00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 8: In fact, they now have one hundred and fifty two 416 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 8: hundred thousand missiles underground and they are right up against 417 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:43,160 Speaker 8: the border. So Israel would say, Natagna, who would say, 418 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:47,360 Speaker 8: And on October eighth, we had no quarrel with what 419 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 8: was happening in Lebanon because of what we was happening 420 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:55,160 Speaker 8: with Hamas in Gaza, his Balla joined in the fight 421 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 8: and continued to pummel us. And now our goal is 422 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 8: to get them back and to make it so painful 423 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:06,480 Speaker 8: for them that they cry uncle and move back voluntarily. 424 00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 6: That's what he would say. 425 00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:10,359 Speaker 8: There's plenty of reasons to think that won't work, but 426 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:11,359 Speaker 8: that's what he would say. 427 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 5: Ethan, this is a prime minister who knows how to 428 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:16,560 Speaker 5: give a speech. He can command an audience. Yes, and 429 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:19,480 Speaker 5: we're going to get one tomorrow in the General Assembly 430 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:23,320 Speaker 5: Building on the east side of Manhattan. He'll be fulminating 431 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,679 Speaker 5: do you expect a defensive speech. Do you expect something different? 432 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:30,480 Speaker 5: What are we anticipating. We'll hear from the Prime Minister 433 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:31,119 Speaker 5: here anymore. 434 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:35,640 Speaker 8: We'll hear from him once again that Iran the head 435 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:40,119 Speaker 8: of the octopus, as Israel views, it has ruined the region, 436 00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 8: It has undermined the states of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and 437 00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:50,960 Speaker 8: Yemen and replace the governments in those countries with militias 438 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:55,160 Speaker 8: that are its aspect. And call whether that's exactly true 439 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,400 Speaker 8: we can discuss, but that's what he'll say, and that 440 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 8: this is a dress rehearsal for the rest of the world, 441 00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:05,919 Speaker 8: that Iran is in cahoots of the Russia, China and 442 00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 8: North Korea and Israel is holding them back. 443 00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:12,199 Speaker 5: Ethan living where he lives, knows that. 444 00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 6: You know. 445 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 5: Sometimes interviews are interrupted by reports of corruption involving public officials. 446 00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:19,440 Speaker 5: He'll forgive us. Forgive us for that as we move 447 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 5: forward here, give us just the update on what's been 448 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:25,880 Speaker 5: happening in the West Bank. I think you know, as 449 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 5: Tom has said, there is so much going on in 450 00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:29,920 Speaker 5: the region and our focus has been drawn to Lebanon 451 00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,679 Speaker 5: in recent days, But just give us an update on 452 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:34,840 Speaker 5: that other campaign. The initial campaign that we saw in 453 00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:37,359 Speaker 5: the aftermath of October seventh, and we were thinking talking 454 00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:39,680 Speaker 5: about just moments before speaking with you. We are approaching 455 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 5: here the anniversary of those grievous attacks. 456 00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 8: Yes, which you're asking specifically about the West Bank right now. Yes, 457 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:51,280 Speaker 8: So the West Bank on October sixth was a place 458 00:22:51,320 --> 00:22:53,880 Speaker 8: where a couple of one hundred thousand Palestinians were coming 459 00:22:53,920 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 8: into Israel working, bringing back large salaries. 460 00:22:57,359 --> 00:22:58,800 Speaker 6: Compared to what they could earn it home. 461 00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:02,600 Speaker 8: And there was of course, it is an occupied area, 462 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:03,960 Speaker 8: militarily occupied. 463 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,000 Speaker 6: It is no fun to be a Palestinian in the 464 00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 6: West Bank. 465 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:09,920 Speaker 8: But there was not the sense of dread that there 466 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:14,080 Speaker 8: has developed since then, which is that their movements are 467 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 8: much more restricted. Nobody is coming into work, at least legally, 468 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:22,199 Speaker 8: and there is a sense also that there is no 469 00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:26,120 Speaker 8: future for the Palestinian movement unless there is some lab 470 00:23:26,200 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 8: betwey at Gaza in the West Bank. 471 00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:29,560 Speaker 6: That's how they feel there. 472 00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:30,440 Speaker 3: Terrific brief. 473 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 2: Ethan Browner, thank you so much as really Israel Bureau 474 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 2: chief today. 475 00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:37,880 Speaker 3: From Tel Aviva. 476 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,680 Speaker 2: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast bringing you the best 477 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:46,480 Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also 478 00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:48,679 Speaker 2: watch the show live on YouTube. 479 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:50,439 Speaker 3: Visit the Bloomberg. 480 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:54,560 Speaker 2: Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings 481 00:23:54,560 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 2: from seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters 482 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,840 Speaker 2: in New York City. Subscribe to the podcasts on Apple, Spotify, 483 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:05,720 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, 484 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,119 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.