WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: September 21, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio) 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:05.880 Live from the Bloomberg Interactor Berger Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:06.000 --> 0:00:10.039 Day Bright for Wednesday, September one. Coming up this hour, 0:00:10.320 --> 0:00:13.680 Wall Street braces for today's FED decision. In J. Powell 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:17.400 news conference, Oil spikes higher after Vladimir Plutin steps up 0:00:17.400 --> 0:00:20.360 his war against Ukraine. We're live with the latest and 0:00:20.520 --> 0:00:24.239 bank CEOs had the Capitol Hill to testify before Congress. 0:00:24.400 --> 0:00:27.720 President Biden headlines a Democratic fundraiser in New York City. 0:00:27.920 --> 0:00:32.040 Plus a special master expresses skepticism about Donald Trump's legal arguments. 0:00:32.360 --> 0:00:35.800 Michael Barr. More ahead, I'm tryn stashdown sports Aaron Judge. 0:00:35.800 --> 0:00:38.280 It is six ft home Rama Yankees. Then one on 0:00:38.320 --> 0:00:40.919 a walk off Grand slamb the met with a dramatic 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:45.280 comeback victory. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Day Breake 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:50.320 on Bloomberg eleven, Trio, New York, Bloomberg Washington, d C, 0:00:50.720 --> 0:00:55.120 Bloomberg one, O six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine six, s Francisco, 0:00:55.480 --> 0:00:58.720 Sirius x M one nineteen and around the world on 0:00:58.840 --> 0:01:02.280 Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the Bloomberg business Side. 0:01:07.520 --> 0:01:10.640 And good Morning, I'm Nathan Hagar, and I'm Karen Moscow 0:01:10.680 --> 0:01:13.800 and US Dock Index futures are little change this morning. 0:01:13.800 --> 0:01:15.960 We are coming up to five oh one on Wall Street, 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:18.120 and we check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the 0:01:18.160 --> 0:01:22.440 trading day on Bloomberg again SNP, NASDACDAL futures, they're all 0:01:22.480 --> 0:01:25.040 little change. The decks in Germany is down about two 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:28.319 tents of upper cent ten year Treasury up nine thirty seconds. 0:01:28.560 --> 0:01:30.959 You have three point five two percent, and the yield 0:01:30.959 --> 0:01:33.480 on the two year three point nine to three percent. 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:37.200 Bitcoin this morning is lower at eighteen thousand, eight hundred 0:01:37.280 --> 0:01:40.280 eighty dollars. Nathan Karen, we begin with the key meeting 0:01:40.319 --> 0:01:43.920 Wall Street has been waiting for all week. This afternoon 0:01:43.959 --> 0:01:47.600 we find out just how much the Fed raises interest rates. 0:01:47.760 --> 0:01:51.400 Let's start with a preview from Bloomberg Economics correspondent Michael McKee. 0:01:52.000 --> 0:01:54.680 Federal Reserve officials are about to put numbers on the 0:01:54.720 --> 0:01:57.600 pain they've been warning of in recent weeks. The benchmark 0:01:57.680 --> 0:02:00.120 US interest rate will go up likely three quarter is 0:02:00.160 --> 0:02:03.080 of a percentage point. But most importantly, they will publish 0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:06.160 new projections for the economy, which are likely to show 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:10.600 slower growth and substantial rise in unemployment. Ahead all that 0:02:10.639 --> 0:02:13.560 will be reflected in higher interest rates, and those interest 0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:17.000 rates will stay higher for longer, all of which makes 0:02:17.040 --> 0:02:19.880 the dot plot the most important news out of the meeting. 0:02:20.320 --> 0:02:22.720 It's not what the Fed does now, but what it 0:02:22.800 --> 0:02:27.239 signals about what's next. Michael McKee, Bloomberg Daybreak, Right, Michael, 0:02:27.320 --> 0:02:30.080 thank you. Ahead of that decision, one former FED official 0:02:30.120 --> 0:02:33.480 as calling for the Central Bank to continue aggressive policy. 0:02:33.560 --> 0:02:36.519 We come up with former Atlanta FED president Dennis Lockhard. 0:02:36.960 --> 0:02:40.960 I believe they'll do seventy five, but I cannot fully 0:02:41.160 --> 0:02:44.120 rule out a hundred. I can rule out fifty. There's 0:02:44.120 --> 0:02:48.120 no justification for dialing back at this point, but I think, 0:02:48.240 --> 0:02:52.480 I really think the highest probability is seventy. Former Atlanta 0:02:52.480 --> 0:02:55.280 FED President Dennis Lockhard made the comments in an interview 0:02:55.280 --> 0:02:58.800 with the Bloomberg's Cantiling Hayes. Meantime, Karen One top Economists 0:02:58.840 --> 0:03:01.640 thinks the Feds going to far in raising rates. David 0:03:01.720 --> 0:03:05.000 Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research says the negative impact will be 0:03:05.040 --> 0:03:08.720 felt next year. Everybody applauding Power right now for doing 0:03:08.720 --> 0:03:11.680 what he's doing to crouss Yesterday's story, which is called inflation, 0:03:12.200 --> 0:03:15.160 is going to be ruining the day. Uh twelve months 0:03:15.160 --> 0:03:17.880 from now, when the recession is going to be deepening 0:03:18.400 --> 0:03:20.560 and we're not gonna have any idea how we're going 0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:23.360 to get out of it. David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research 0:03:23.400 --> 0:03:26.000 made the comments on Bloomberg Surveillance. Join us for a 0:03:26.080 --> 0:03:29.240 special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance with live coverage of the 0:03:29.280 --> 0:03:32.040 FED decision. It's coming up at one thirty pm Wall 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:36.000 Street Time on Bloomberg Radio and television. Well, another major 0:03:36.160 --> 0:03:40.240 story we're following this morning, Nathan focuses on Russia's ongoing 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:43.720 war in Ukraine. Moscow is preparing to escalate the conflict. 0:03:43.760 --> 0:03:46.840 Vladimir Putin is vowing to use all means necessary in 0:03:46.840 --> 0:03:49.960 the war and announced what he calls a partial mobilization. 0:03:50.080 --> 0:03:52.920 We get more from Bloomberg's Maria today O in Brussels. 0:03:53.280 --> 0:03:55.960 The war is going to continue for longer. If you 0:03:56.000 --> 0:03:59.440 thought there was a diplomatic past solution possible to this 0:03:59.560 --> 0:04:01.440 and the dam term, I mean, I think after this 0:04:01.560 --> 0:04:03.560 you can really kiss it goodbye because it's not going 0:04:03.600 --> 0:04:05.920 to happen. And then the other issue is that it 0:04:06.000 --> 0:04:09.400 does speak to some extent to the urgency of the 0:04:09.480 --> 0:04:14.119 Russian army to provide additional manpower to what is now 0:04:14.280 --> 0:04:18.160 a very messy front line for Russia, especially in the 0:04:18.200 --> 0:04:22.200 week of that counter offensive from the Ukrainian army last week. 0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:24.479 It had been an embarrassment. We had been waiting for 0:04:24.560 --> 0:04:28.040 the response, and now we have it here. Bloomberg's Maria 0:04:28.120 --> 0:04:30.839 today O says oil is spiking on news of Russia's 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:33.839 mobilization and checking prices now and I make screwed oil 0:04:33.920 --> 0:04:36.400 up one point nine of a dollar fifty three and 0:04:36.480 --> 0:04:39.280 eighty five dollars forty eight cents of barrel brand is 0:04:39.320 --> 0:04:42.200 at one point eight percent and ninety two one cents. 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:45.120 The Russian invasion of Ukraine is also dominating talks at 0:04:45.120 --> 0:04:48.479 the United Nations General Assembly in New York City. Bloomberg's 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:51.640 memory Hordern is there and filed this report. Who's going 0:04:51.640 --> 0:04:54.560 will be holding sham votes as soon as this weekend 0:04:54.760 --> 0:04:58.800 to absorb four regions into Russia that are part of Ukraine. 0:04:59.080 --> 0:05:02.440 We spoke to Secretary General Again Seltenberg, who says this 0:05:02.520 --> 0:05:06.880 does not change the facts on the ground. Such votes 0:05:07.200 --> 0:05:12.080 referendums general to any legitims and therefore they don't change 0:05:12.120 --> 0:05:15.840 the nature of the conflict. This remains a war of 0:05:15.880 --> 0:05:19.120 aggression by or shy against the independence of the nation 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:23.000 in Europe. Biden will be addressing the Assembly on Wednesday, 0:05:23.120 --> 0:05:26.160 and according to his National security advisor Jake Sullivan, where 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:28.560 he will want to communicate is that he pushes back 0:05:28.600 --> 0:05:33.000 against aggressors who seek to threaten, coerce and intimidate their members, 0:05:33.120 --> 0:05:37.560 or to violently attack them and Recordern Bloomberg News New York. 0:05:37.800 --> 0:05:39.840 All right, and Marie, thank you all back in our 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:43.800 nation's capital. The country's biggest banks are also in focus today. 0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:46.520 Top executives had the Capitol Hill for two days of 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:49.159 testimony on the banking industry, and we get the story 0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:54.000 from Bloomberg's Jeff Billinger. House Committee hearing on banking accountability 0:05:54.120 --> 0:05:57.000 is set for today. A Senate panel will hold a 0:05:57.040 --> 0:06:00.800 hearing on annual oversight of the nation's largest banks tomorrow. 0:06:01.160 --> 0:06:03.839 The CEO of JP more can Chase plans to tell 0:06:03.880 --> 0:06:08.080 the lawmakers that increasing capital requirements for big banks is 0:06:08.200 --> 0:06:11.960 bad for America. Jamie Diamonds prepared remarks hit on a 0:06:12.080 --> 0:06:15.160 range of issues, and he says his firm plays an 0:06:15.200 --> 0:06:18.559 important role in the global economy. He warns of harm 0:06:18.680 --> 0:06:23.039 from arbitrary increases in capital requirements. The CEOs of Bank 0:06:23.120 --> 0:06:26.400 of America, Wells Fargo when City Group will also be 0:06:26.520 --> 0:06:30.360 heard from Jeff Bublinger Bloomberg day Break. All right, Jeff. Thanks. 0:06:30.360 --> 0:06:32.560 In another note this morning on Wall Street, Banks they're 0:06:32.600 --> 0:06:35.839 likely to lose about six hundred million dollars after unloading 0:06:35.839 --> 0:06:39.960 debt for the buyout of Citric Systems. Investors required significantly 0:06:40.040 --> 0:06:42.600 higher yields than banks had promised to private equity firms 0:06:42.680 --> 0:06:46.400 Vista Equity and Elliott Investment Management. That forced Goldman Sachs, 0:06:46.400 --> 0:06:49.640 Bank of America and others to absorb the losses and Nathan. 0:06:49.680 --> 0:06:53.760 Another major corporation is making hiring changes. Boeing is cutting 0:06:53.800 --> 0:06:57.560 accountants and hiring more engineers. The airplane maker plans to 0:06:57.560 --> 0:07:00.600 outsource about a hundred fifty accounting and finding its jobs 0:07:00.800 --> 0:07:03.720 as it shrinks its corporate structure. At the same time, 0:07:03.760 --> 0:07:07.160 it will increase hiring to support engineering, manufacturing and product 0:07:07.240 --> 0:07:11.520 development and futures. Again little change this morning, Tenure Treasury 0:07:11.560 --> 0:07:14.040 up eight thirty seconds. You know, three point five two 0:07:14.160 --> 0:07:16.880 per cent straight ahead, your latest local headlines plus a 0:07:17.000 --> 0:07:23.760 check of sports. And this is Bloomberg. Thanks parent. It's 0:07:23.800 --> 0:07:25.680 five o seven on Wall Street, where at sixty four 0:07:25.720 --> 0:07:28.160 degrees in Central Park. We got accident clean up on 0:07:28.160 --> 0:07:31.560 the southbound Major Diagan near Yankee Stadium. Details coming up 0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:33.960 in traffic. First Michael Barr with what else is going 0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:36.360 on in New York and around the world. Good morning, Michael, 0:07:36.480 --> 0:07:39.600 Good morning, Nathan. President Joe Biden had lined the fundraiser 0:07:39.600 --> 0:07:42.040 in New York last night that raised about two million 0:07:42.120 --> 0:07:46.680 dollars for Democratic Party organizations. It featured celebrity guests including 0:07:46.680 --> 0:07:50.080 actor Robert de Niro and Mayor Eric Adams. The events 0:07:50.200 --> 0:07:53.720 on the night before Biden's addressed to the UN General Assembly, 0:07:54.080 --> 0:07:56.640 was held at the Manhattan home of designer and Democratic 0:07:56.720 --> 0:08:01.520 activists Henry Munio's Venezuela migrants flown to Martha's Vineyard in 0:08:01.560 --> 0:08:06.120 Massachusetts sued Florida Governor Around As Santis and its transportation secretary, 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:10.720 accusing them of a fraudulent and discriminatory scheme to relocate them. 0:08:10.920 --> 0:08:14.440 Texas Sheriff has opened an investigation into the flights as well. 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:18.200 Massachusetts Governor Charley Baker. I am very glad that the 0:08:18.200 --> 0:08:21.320 sheriff chose to open an investigation. I think that's the 0:08:21.400 --> 0:08:24.240 right thing to do. Meanwhile, Governor de Santis says many 0:08:24.280 --> 0:08:27.400 of the migrants and asylum seekers want to go to Florida, 0:08:27.560 --> 0:08:29.680 an he means to stop them. We have to go 0:08:29.720 --> 0:08:32.040 and figure out, Okay, who are those people likely to be, 0:08:32.640 --> 0:08:34.240 and if you can do it at the source and 0:08:34.320 --> 0:08:37.560 divert to sanctuary jurisdictions, the chance they end up in 0:08:37.600 --> 0:08:41.320 Florida as much less. Governor de Santis hinted of more flanks. 0:08:41.640 --> 0:08:44.560 New York Mayor Eric Adams announced another sign of the 0:08:44.559 --> 0:08:48.120 city's gradual return to the pre pandemic norms. We will 0:08:48.160 --> 0:08:52.040 also provide additional flexibility to business by lifting the private 0:08:52.160 --> 0:08:56.640 sector mandate on November first. This put the choice in 0:08:56.640 --> 0:08:59.679 the hands of New York businesses, and it's imperative that 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:03.920 we're asking them to continue to encourage their employees to 0:09:04.040 --> 0:09:07.520 get their vaccines and boost shots. Mayor Adam says they 0:09:07.559 --> 0:09:10.880 will continue to require its own workers to be inoculated. 0:09:11.200 --> 0:09:14.680 New York will install surveillance cameras and its subway train cars, 0:09:14.679 --> 0:09:17.640 and a push to crack down on crime underground. Governor 0:09:17.679 --> 0:09:20.280 HOCl says there will be two cameras per train car. 0:09:20.840 --> 0:09:24.280 The Special Master requested by Donald Trump to review thousands 0:09:24.280 --> 0:09:27.600 of documents the FBI ceased from his moral Lago Home 0:09:27.720 --> 0:09:32.160 express skepticism about some of the former president's arguments at 0:09:32.240 --> 0:09:34.520 his first hearing in the matter. U S District Judge 0:09:34.559 --> 0:09:37.560 Raymond Derry pushed back on the Trump lawyer's position and 0:09:37.640 --> 0:09:41.840 they didn't need to detail any alleged declassifications of highly 0:09:41.880 --> 0:09:45.320 sensitive records. Hurricane Fiona is threatening to strengthen into a 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:48.760 Category four storm as it lashes the Turks and Caicos 0:09:48.840 --> 0:09:52.360 Highlands and was forecast to squeeze past Bermuda later this week. 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:55.320 Global News twenty four hours a day on air and 0:09:55.480 --> 0:09:58.760 on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered by more than twenty seven hundred 0:09:58.800 --> 0:10:01.679 journalists and analysts more than a und twenty countries. Michael Barrow, 0:10:01.720 --> 0:10:08.839 This is Bloomberg, Nathan. Thanks Michael. Coming up to five 0:10:08.880 --> 0:10:11.079 ten on Wall Street time for the Bloomberg Sports Update. 0:10:11.120 --> 0:10:13.760 Good morning, John Teshown, Good morning, night than a memorable 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:15.959 night at Yankee Stadium. Didn't look like it would be. 0:10:16.080 --> 0:10:17.760 Yankees came up out of the night. It ain't trailing 0:10:17.760 --> 0:10:20.000 the Pirates eight to four. Aaron Judge had gone over 0:10:20.000 --> 0:10:22.360 for three with a walk, putting let off the night. 0:10:22.480 --> 0:10:25.480 So one more chance to join a very exclusive club. 0:10:26.160 --> 0:10:29.240 So we're going at good, there it goes. It is hot, 0:10:29.480 --> 0:10:35.600 cut is fun goods done. He's tied up. Baby, it's 0:10:35.679 --> 0:10:40.240 a Judgey and Glass his sixtieth home run of the year. 0:10:40.400 --> 0:10:43.400 Wow w f A and they call Judge Matches Babe 0:10:43.480 --> 0:10:47.600 rute from nine seven next up as Roger Morrison's sixty 0:10:47.679 --> 0:10:49.840 one in sixty one the homermate at eight to five, 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:53.440 Yankees were hardly done against the Pirates Will Crow. They 0:10:53.440 --> 0:10:55.920 loaded the bases and with still nobody out, John Carlos 0:10:55.960 --> 0:10:59.080 Stanton Houstin's coming off the injured list last month was 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:02.800 nine first. Evan d two with thirty strikeouts, delivered a 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:05.360 walk up grand slam the Yanks one, nine to eight. 0:11:05.360 --> 0:11:08.120 The Yankee debut of Bronxville native Harrison Bader. He drove 0:11:08.120 --> 0:11:10.880 in three runs plenty of drama for the Mets. In Milwaukee, 0:11:10.920 --> 0:11:13.160 they trailed three nothing six to any when Pete Alonzo 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:15.600 tied the game with his second three but on home 0:11:15.679 --> 0:11:18.520 and his many nights and an inning later, Francisco Lindoor 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:21.400 did a game winning grand slam of his own and 0:11:21.440 --> 0:11:23.720 Mets won seven five to stay game ahead of Atlanta. 0:11:23.760 --> 0:11:26.400 Moriy Wills has died at eighty nine. Long time Dodgers 0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:28.079 shorts dot the n L m v P in the 0:11:28.080 --> 0:11:30.880 eighteen sixty two when he stole a hundred four basis. 0:11:30.920 --> 0:11:33.520 A couple of Nora's trophy winning defenseman had retired. PK 0:11:33.679 --> 0:11:36.719 Suban only thirty three, played for three teams, including the 0:11:36.760 --> 0:11:39.960 Devil's and Zadano Chara, who's forty five one time Islander, 0:11:40.200 --> 0:11:42.320 spent most of his career in Boston. The six ft 0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:45.640 nine inch jar a tallest player in NHL history. John 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:49.240 Stashward Bloomberg Sports, Nathan John, Thank you. SNP futures little 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:51.520 changed right now in Town. Futures are up five points. 0:11:51.559 --> 0:11:54.760 Nanstack futures down eight. The tenure treasury is up seven 0:11:54.760 --> 0:11:57.880 thirty seconds. Heal three point five three percent ahead of 0:11:57.880 --> 0:12:01.600 the Fed decision this afternoon, we preview next with Jennifer 0:12:01.679 --> 0:12:08.000 Lee of Bemo Capital Markets. Bloomberg Day Break brought to 0:12:08.000 --> 0:12:11.080 you by Peapack Private Wealth Management. Pepack Private Wealth Management 0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:14.040 knows that a portfolio is more than a collection of assets. 0:12:14.040 --> 0:12:16.880 It's a path to your future. Visit Peapack Private dot 0:12:16.880 --> 0:12:23.480 com and begin your financial legacy. Today, markets headlines and 0:12:23.559 --> 0:12:26.600 breaking news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot 0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:30.480 com the Bloomberg Business Atland at Bloomberg quicktape. This is 0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:40.760 a Bloomberg business flash and I'm Karen. Moscow markets are muted, 0:12:40.800 --> 0:12:44.160 with investors mostly sideline before another expected rate hike from 0:12:44.160 --> 0:12:47.120 the Federal Reserve treasuries, gold and the dollar jumping after 0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:50.600 Russian President Vladimir Putin stepped up his roar against Ukraine. 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:53.280 We checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading 0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:56.720 day on Bloomberg again U s m P nasdactal future 0:12:56.800 --> 0:12:59.160 is all little change. The decks in Germany's down about 0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:02.280 a quarter per cent ten your treasury of seven thirty seconds, 0:13:02.320 --> 0:13:04.320 you have three point five three percent. They yield on 0:13:04.360 --> 0:13:07.120 the two year three point nine four percent. Nine max 0:13:07.160 --> 0:13:09.680 screwed oil up two point four percent of two dollars 0:13:09.720 --> 0:13:12.120 four cents at eighty five dollars ninety eight cents of errol. 0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:14.800 Comics called up seven tenths per cent or ten dollars 0:13:14.800 --> 0:13:18.120 eighty cents at sixteen eighty one nine announced the euro 0:13:18.320 --> 0:13:20.400 is at point nine nine one three against the dollar. 0:13:20.440 --> 0:13:22.880 British found one point one three eight and a yen 0:13:23.040 --> 0:13:26.320 one three point h U look at a bitcoin down 0:13:26.320 --> 0:13:29.280 six tents of a percent at eighteen thousand, eight hundred 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:32.160 sixty dollars. And today we're watching for reports on existing 0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:34.680 home sales out at ten o'clock Wall Street time, and 0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:37.719 the Federal Reserve interest rate decision is out at two 0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:40.880 as a Bloomberg Business Flash. Now here's Michael Barr with 0:13:40.920 --> 0:13:43.480 more on what's going on around the world. Michael, good morning, 0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:46.880 Good morning, Karen. Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced a 0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:50.240 partial mobilization in Russia. The measure appeared to be an 0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:53.679 admission that Moscow's war against Ukraine is not going according 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:57.000 to plan after nearly seven months of fighting and the 0:13:57.040 --> 0:14:01.520 mid recent battlefield losses for the Kremlin's force. President Biden 0:14:01.600 --> 0:14:04.880 speaks to the UN General Assembly later this morning. Aide 0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:07.600 say the President will accuse Russia, a permanent member of 0:14:07.640 --> 0:14:10.600 the Security Council, of striking at the very heart of 0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:14.600 the UN Charter for invading Ukraine. Will carry President Biden's 0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:18.480 address live. In baseball, the Yankees beat the Pirates nine 0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:22.080 eight Aaron Judge. It is sixtieth home run this season, 0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:25.840 one away from Roger Emeraz's American League record. The Mets 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:28.800 and the Red Sox won the Orioles and Nationals lost, 0:14:28.880 --> 0:14:31.840 the A's and Giants were winners. Global News twenty four 0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:35.200 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quicktake, powered 0:14:35.200 --> 0:14:37.760 by more of than twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts 0:14:37.840 --> 0:14:40.360 more than a hundred twenty countries. I'm Michael bar This 0:14:40.560 --> 0:14:43.880 is Bloomberg, Nathan. Thanks Michael. It's five nineteen on Wall Street, 0:14:43.920 --> 0:14:47.640 Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studios. This is Bloomberg 0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:50.720 Daybreak on this FED decision day. We are joined live 0:14:50.760 --> 0:14:55.120 now by Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. 0:14:55.120 --> 0:14:57.880 So here we are, jen The markets have fully priced 0:14:57.880 --> 0:15:01.080 in seventy five basis points. Is a FED going to deliver? 0:15:02.240 --> 0:15:06.520 I think it will. Good morning, Um, it's kind of funny, 0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:08.280 not in the haha way, of course, but the fact 0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:10.840 that you know, we're almost hoping for Sunday five beats, 0:15:10.840 --> 0:15:12.960 which is, you know, just like half a year ago 0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:16.200 is considered you know, completely out of out of the ordinary, 0:15:16.480 --> 0:15:18.560 but seventy five basis points. I think it will be 0:15:18.600 --> 0:15:22.320 the result today is seventy basis points here to stay. 0:15:22.640 --> 0:15:25.480 Is that what we're going to get in the subsequent meetings? 0:15:25.560 --> 0:15:27.520 What are you looking for in the dot plot? So 0:15:27.600 --> 0:15:29.760 we are. I mean, the dot pods always important, and 0:15:29.760 --> 0:15:32.960 I think there is a slight risk now that there 0:15:33.120 --> 0:15:35.280 that we could see it tipped over to the above 0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:39.120 four you know, our basics scenarios to end uh the 0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:41.800 year at three seven five percent, So another seventy five 0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:45.920 basis points um today and then another fifty in November. 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:49.640 And maybe deer started a slow things down a bit um, 0:15:49.680 --> 0:15:52.040 but I think it's still like higher for now at least. 0:15:52.840 --> 0:15:56.280 What's behind that case for a pivot towards slower rate hikes? 0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:58.880 Why do you think the Fed could move that way? Uh, 0:15:59.000 --> 0:16:01.080 you know, there's all of course, there's the risk of 0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:03.080 doing too much, and that's that's always going to be 0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:06.280 at risk. But they have seen some of the you know, 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:08.400 some of the economics slow down that you know from 0:16:08.840 --> 0:16:11.800 retail sales. I mean, consumers are starting to feel the 0:16:11.840 --> 0:16:15.120 bite of higher rates, of higher inflation, the fact that 0:16:15.160 --> 0:16:19.320 inflation expectations are starting to flicker down a little bit um. 0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:23.440 Certainly not enough to start dialing back the hawkishness, but 0:16:23.480 --> 0:16:26.360 it's something that I'm sure that the officials are keeping 0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:29.000 an eye on. They can't keep doing Sundays five forever. 0:16:29.080 --> 0:16:30.640 You know, things you have to kind of start slowing 0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:32.960 down at some point. It's what point do you think 0:16:33.000 --> 0:16:37.280 we're going to start to see policy actually affect the inflation? Right? 0:16:37.320 --> 0:16:40.320 We haven't seen it much at this point, particularly given 0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:44.040 the hotter than expected inflation. Read we got on consumer 0:16:44.040 --> 0:16:48.000 prices this month, right, So the fact that energy prices 0:16:48.040 --> 0:16:50.440 have come down certainly helps a lot in terms of 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:53.520 confidence and all that. But the core measure that that 0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:55.560 they are keeping an eye on, and that last one 0:16:56.040 --> 0:16:57.640 alway saw a couple weeks ago, or was the last 0:16:57.640 --> 0:16:59.560 week a couple weeks ago was quite the eye popper, 0:16:59.600 --> 0:17:01.920 you know, point six months to month. So I think 0:17:01.960 --> 0:17:04.439 we're going to have to see at least three months 0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:06.720 of slower you know, or TA or the fact that 0:17:06.800 --> 0:17:10.240 you know, of coursep I started to be tamed somewhat. 0:17:10.320 --> 0:17:13.359 Um it will be the factor I think in getting 0:17:13.440 --> 0:17:17.200 the fedshare Palace sort of ease up on his hawk 0:17:17.240 --> 0:17:19.040 is tone and somewhat, But it's going to take a 0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:20.640 few more months, and you know, just one or two 0:17:20.640 --> 0:17:22.600 months it's not going to cut it. What's the risk 0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:26.800 of economic damage from tighter policy? I mean, we have 0:17:26.920 --> 0:17:30.360 started to see slign signs of the slowdown is there 0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:34.520 a risk of tipping this economy into recession with the 0:17:34.600 --> 0:17:37.080 kind of aggressive moves that the FED has been making 0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:39.240 over the last few months. That's a great question. I 0:17:39.240 --> 0:17:42.000 think there's a very risk, real risk of that happening. 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:45.200 And it's almost like we've already been seeing quite a 0:17:45.280 --> 0:17:49.240 number of hikes, very aggressive hikes already. The fact that 0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:52.280 the because that the consumer is still spending, the economy 0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:54.200 is still holding on it. But as you point out, 0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:57.280 it has been softening. It might have to take I 0:17:57.320 --> 0:17:58.960 have to say it, it might even take a recession 0:17:58.960 --> 0:18:02.240 in order to not conflation lower. So there is that risk. 0:18:02.280 --> 0:18:05.040 It's very real risk if we see the Fed go 0:18:05.320 --> 0:18:07.879 above seventy. I mean, they're still the pricing of the 0:18:07.920 --> 0:18:10.520 possibility of a hundred basis point move. What's the market 0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:13.560 reaction do you think, Oh, it'll be bad? I think. 0:18:13.600 --> 0:18:16.000 I mean, although there has been talking about a hundred 0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:18.440 basis points, I think personally, I think a hundred beeves 0:18:18.520 --> 0:18:20.720 is just going to recom panic. You know, the hour 0:18:20.840 --> 0:18:22.280 person is going to be thinking, you know, what's the 0:18:22.320 --> 0:18:24.639 Fed thinking? Or no, what does the Fed know that 0:18:24.680 --> 0:18:26.320 I don't know? You know, And I think it would 0:18:26.320 --> 0:18:29.879 be it would be too much. Personally, I I do 0:18:29.920 --> 0:18:33.440 believe that, and I think semi five basis points accompanied 0:18:33.480 --> 0:18:36.680 by continue to hawk Is talk during the press conference 0:18:37.240 --> 0:18:39.920 would be I think the base case, and I think 0:18:39.920 --> 0:18:42.040 that would be the proper move. To make Hunter basis 0:18:42.080 --> 0:18:43.920 points would be too much, in which is RecA panic. 0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:47.640 Are you expecting further hawk is talk from Chairman pal? 0:18:47.680 --> 0:18:50.840 Obviously we did get that at Jackson whole last month. 0:18:50.880 --> 0:18:52.720 What are you gonna be listening for the news conference 0:18:52.720 --> 0:18:54.680 in our last thirty seconds here, I'm gonna be listening 0:18:54.720 --> 0:18:57.200 for new words, a new descriptive, what words that he's 0:18:57.200 --> 0:18:59.439 going to be using? And his book HAP has been 0:18:59.440 --> 0:19:02.160 improving every every every month, it seems. In the last 0:19:02.200 --> 0:19:04.440 one was the need to act forth rightly I think 0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:07.080 was the last one he'd made just before the blackout period. 0:19:07.359 --> 0:19:10.119 But I think the acushness will will be maintained, but 0:19:10.200 --> 0:19:15.040 I don't see it being amped up evey further. Thanks Jen, Yeah, 0:19:15.040 --> 0:19:17.480 thanks to I really appreciate getting your thoughts ahead of 0:19:17.520 --> 0:19:21.080 the decision two pm Wall Street time, of course, and 0:19:21.160 --> 0:19:24.879 the news conference with Chairman Powell to follow at two thirty. 0:19:24.920 --> 0:19:27.560 We will have full coverage for you on a special 0:19:27.680 --> 0:19:31.040 edition of Bloomberg Surveillance that begins at one thirty across 0:19:31.119 --> 0:19:34.399 Bloomberg Radio and television ahead of that, thanks again to 0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:39.520 Jennifer Lee, senior economists at BMO Capital Markets. Futures not 0:19:39.600 --> 0:19:42.640 really moving much SMP future is little change. DAL futures 0:19:42.720 --> 0:19:46.840 up nine NASDAC futures lower by fourteen points in anticipation 0:19:47.400 --> 0:19:51.240 of the Fed decision. This afternoon actions in the bond 0:19:51.280 --> 0:19:53.359 space with the ten year up seven thirty seconds. Now 0:19:53.359 --> 0:19:55.480 with THEE three point five three percent yield on the 0:19:55.520 --> 0:19:59.640 two year at three point nine four percent. You're listening 0:20:00.200 --> 0:20:07.680 to Bloomberg day Break on this Fed decision day. Bloomberg 0:20:07.760 --> 0:20:10.480 day Break brought to you by pe Pack Private Wealth Management. 0:20:10.560 --> 0:20:13.400 A portfolio is more than a collection of assets, it's 0:20:13.440 --> 0:20:17.400 a path to your future. Visit pe Pack Private dot 0:20:17.440 --> 0:20:26.280 Com Broadcasting Wive from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in 0:20:26.320 --> 0:20:29.359 New York, Bloomberg E Living for you to Washington, d C, 0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:33.280 Bloomberg ninety one to Boston, Bloomberg one O six one 0:20:33.359 --> 0:20:36.800 to San Francisco, Bloomberg n sixteen to the country Sirius 0:20:36.960 --> 0:20:39.520 XM to A one nineteen and around the globe to 0:20:39.600 --> 0:20:43.480 Bloomberg business app in Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is 0:20:43.520 --> 0:20:52.200 Bloomberg Daybreak. It's five thirty on Wall Street. Good morning. 0:20:52.200 --> 0:20:55.280 I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscale. We're just about 0:20:55.320 --> 0:20:57.640 four hours away from the open of US trading. Let's 0:20:57.680 --> 0:20:59.080 get you up to date on the news you need 0:20:59.119 --> 0:21:00.800 to know at this shower where we begin with this 0:21:00.880 --> 0:21:03.679 afternoon's FED decision, where we find out how much the 0:21:03.720 --> 0:21:07.200 Central Bank will raise interest rates. Former Atlanta Fed President 0:21:07.200 --> 0:21:10.120 Dennis Lockhart says he expects a seventy five basis point 0:21:10.200 --> 0:21:13.440 hike and things rates will continue going higher until late 0:21:13.520 --> 0:21:16.960 next year. It's just very unlikely you're going to see 0:21:17.000 --> 0:21:20.320 a pivot from one meeting to the other, going from 0:21:20.359 --> 0:21:23.600 hawk ish to devish overnight. So I would expect that 0:21:23.760 --> 0:21:26.159 once they get to a point they feel they need 0:21:26.200 --> 0:21:30.520 to either pause or stop, that rate will be sustained 0:21:30.520 --> 0:21:34.760 for probably several meetings fromer. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart 0:21:34.840 --> 0:21:37.720 tells us there's no case for anything less than seventy 0:21:37.720 --> 0:21:40.440 five basis points today. Stick with us for live cover 0:21:40.600 --> 0:21:43.600 to the Fed decision and a special edition of Bloomberg 0:21:43.680 --> 0:21:46.639 Surveillance beginning at one thirty pm Wall Street time on 0:21:46.720 --> 0:21:50.600 Bloomberg Radio and television. Another major story where following Karen, 0:21:50.640 --> 0:21:53.760 involves an escalation by Russia in the war with Ukraine. 0:21:53.840 --> 0:21:56.359