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Speaker 1: Good morning.

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Speaker 2: Everybody.

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Speaker 1: Had some significant developments in the war in Iran that

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Speaker 1: I did not want to wait to bring to you

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Speaker 1: until Monday, so let's go ahead and get to it.

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Speaker 1: The most significant of those updates is this from President Trump.

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Speaker 1: He posted this on true social yesterday. Moments ago, at

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Speaker 1: my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of

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Speaker 1: the most powerful bombing raids in the history of the

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Speaker 1: Middle East and totally obliterated every military target in Iran's

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Speaker 1: Crown Jewel KRG Island. Our weapons of the most powerful

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Speaker 1: and sophisticated the world has ever known, but for reasons

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Speaker 1: of decency, I've chosen not to wipe out the oil

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Speaker 1: infrastructure on the island. However, should Iran or anyone else

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Speaker 1: do anything to interfere with the free and safe passage

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Speaker 1: of ships through the Strait of Hormos, I will immediately

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Speaker 1: reconsider this decision. During my first term and currently, I

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Speaker 1: rebuilt our military into the most lethal, powerful and effective

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Speaker 1: force by far anywhere in the world. Iran has no

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Speaker 1: ability to defend anything that we want to attack. There

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Speaker 1: is nothing they can do about it. Iran will never

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Speaker 1: have a nuclear weapon, nor will it have the ability

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Speaker 1: to threaten the United States of America, the Middle East,

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Speaker 1: or for that matter, of the world. Iran's military and

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Speaker 1: all others involved with this terrorist regime would be wise

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Speaker 1: to lay down their arms and save what's left of

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Speaker 1: their country, which isn't much. Thank you for your attention

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Speaker 1: to this matter. So a bunch of things to call

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Speaker 1: your attention to here that are significant. So first of all,

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Speaker 1: I'll tell you a little bit more about carg Island

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Speaker 1: in a moment, but it is incredibly important to Iran's

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Speaker 1: oil exports. About ninety percent of their oil exports leave

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Speaker 1: from that island, and so there's significant capacity there. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: that's important. You'll note though, that Trump specifically says that

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Speaker 1: he did not target the oil infrastructure, only the military infrastructure,

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Speaker 1: and we do have confirmation of that at this point.

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Speaker 1: In fact, you know, people who track such things say

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Speaker 1: already they've been able to load more oil from Cark Island.

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Speaker 1: The running government also says that the oil infrastructure was

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Speaker 1: not impacted and they are continuing to operate. So that's

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Speaker 1: number one. Number two, he says that while he's only

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Speaker 1: targeting the military infrastructure on carc Island right now, that

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Speaker 1: if Iran continues to threaten the Straight of Horror moves

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Speaker 1: and control the Strait of Hormves and not allow any

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Speaker 1: tankers from the US and Israel in particular or allies

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Speaker 1: through the strait. That then he would consider targeting the

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Speaker 1: oil infrastructure. Now, as you guys know, we already have

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Speaker 1: a significant oil crisis. Oil prices have shot up. They

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Speaker 1: shot up at one point to one hundred and twenty

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Speaker 1: dollars a barrel. They have now come back down now

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Speaker 1: they're hovering right around one hundred dollars a barrel. The

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Speaker 1: oil market is a global market, So even as the

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Speaker 1: entity that would be hurt the most, if carg Island's

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Speaker 1: capacity was removed from the system, would Iran. The entire

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Speaker 1: global market would suffer, and that would have implications for

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Speaker 1: the US and it would have massive implications for countries

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Speaker 1: around the world. The US is somewhat insulated because of

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Speaker 1: being a net energy exporterer, but again we are also

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Speaker 1: integrated into that world economy. So if you're taking those

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Speaker 1: millions of barrels of oil off the market from carg

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Speaker 1: coming from carg Island, you're going to have some sort

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Speaker 1: of price shock. So this is no doubt a significant

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Speaker 1: escalatory step here. From President Trump, and let me go

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Speaker 1: ahead and share with you a little bit more information

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Speaker 1: about Carg Island so you can see some of the

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Speaker 1: import here. This is from the Wall Street Journal and

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Speaker 1: just has some facts about this. Whye to Trump order

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Speaker 1: an attack on Iran's Carg Island. As I said before,

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Speaker 1: the tiny spot of land in the Northern Persian Gulf

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Speaker 1: is the launch point for ninety percent of the country's

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Speaker 1: oil exports. Trump city spared oil facilities in the bombardment,

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Speaker 1: which went after military targets only, but warned that he

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Speaker 1: would reconsider that decision if Iran did not open these

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Speaker 1: straight up horror moves. The US military said it targeted

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Speaker 1: more than ninety military targets, including mine and missile storage sites,

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Speaker 1: and shared video of a strike on a run way.

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Speaker 1: In addition, it reiterates what I was saying about how

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Speaker 1: the island is not actually shut down in terms of oil.

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Speaker 1: They attack the army, jetty and storages are okay, said

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Speaker 1: a board member at the Iranian Oil, Gas and Petrochemical

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Speaker 1: Product Exporters Union. What would the attacks on carg mean

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Speaker 1: for oil prices? It says so far the attacks went

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Speaker 1: after military targets only. If the island's oil infrastructure is damaged,

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Speaker 1: that could force Iran to cut production at its oil fields,

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Speaker 1: potentially taking another one million barrels of production away from

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Speaker 1: global markets. That would be in addition to cuts implemented

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Speaker 1: by Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrains. So they're saying the oil

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Speaker 1: industry is already impacted by this war by attacks that

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Speaker 1: have been ongoing, and now this would further reduce that

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Speaker 1: if the oil infrastructure was hit. So that is some

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Speaker 1: additional details there. I wanted to provide you with this

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Speaker 1: analysis from Professor Robert Pape, who we had on the

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Speaker 1: show last week, and I know a lot of people

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Speaker 1: have been very interested in what he has to say.

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Speaker 1: He's been talking about how Trump is trapped in He's

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Speaker 1: in this escalation trap, and this would be a perfect

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Speaker 1: emblem of that escalation trap because here Trump is once

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Speaker 1: again taking it to the next level, even though Iran

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Speaker 1: continues to be able to respond and continues to be

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Speaker 1: able to up the ante. So what Professor Pape says

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Speaker 1: here is seizing cargo would block iron oil exports, but

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Speaker 1: means more oil off the global market, further increasing oil

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Speaker 1: prices and inflation on US consumers. It will not prevent

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Speaker 1: Iran's drone from hitting tankers. Escalation continues to favor Iran

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Speaker 1: and its long war strategy. So what has Iran done

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Speaker 1: seeming in response here? We've already got some indications of

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Speaker 1: the direction they're going to go in in particular, and this,

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Speaker 1: you know, is very predictable giving the attack on carg Island.

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Speaker 1: Brian Krassantine says here breaking in retaliation the carg Island attack,

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Speaker 1: Irani and drones have just hit oil facilities at Fujeraport

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Speaker 1: in the UAE. This is a very large and significant

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Speaker 1: oil depot. He says, I'd be shocked if gas isn't

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Speaker 1: four dollars next week. I you know, can opine on

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Speaker 1: exactly what the impact will be on the markets or

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Speaker 1: on gas prices at the pump. But this is the

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Speaker 1: logic of escalation. So carg Island is hit. So what

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Speaker 1: does Iran do in response? They hit oil infrastructure in

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Speaker 1: the region. They up the ante so now, and they

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Speaker 1: are showing no indication that they're going to open up

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Speaker 1: the Straight of Horror moves. In fact, in kind of

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Speaker 1: a brilliant almost troll, they said, oh, will allow some

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Speaker 1: ships to pass through the Straight of horror moves as

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Speaker 1: long as it is not denominated in dollars but in

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Speaker 1: Chinese one, So, you know, trying to undermine these status

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Speaker 1: of the dollar in the world, trying to use whatever

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Speaker 1: asymmetric tools that they have here in order to squeeze

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Speaker 1: the US, not just militarily, but from an economic perspective,

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Speaker 1: and I think they really see that as being at

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Speaker 1: the forefront of their strategy. Rory Johnston, who we also

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Speaker 1: had on the show, who's an oil market analyst, says

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Speaker 1: that Iranian tankers are already back to loading at karg

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Speaker 1: this morning, despy yesterday's US strikes on the island, which

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Speaker 1: currently stages the vast majority of Iranian exports, so that

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Speaker 1: again underscores that the oil infrastructure was not actually hit.

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Speaker 1: That threat remains. It's also worth noting here that Trump

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Speaker 1: intentionally intentionally made this move after markets closed, of course,

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Speaker 1: because he wants the weekend for things to potentially shake

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Speaker 1: out and lessen the blow of whatever is going to

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Speaker 1: happen in our stock markets and with oil futures as well.

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Speaker 1: I think that was a very intentional choice because he

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Speaker 1: knows it's going to be incredibly It's going to be

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Speaker 1: very chaotic. It's going to cause even more turmoil than

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Speaker 1: we've seen thus far. And we're just beginning to see

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Speaker 1: the way that Iran is going to respond and the

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Speaker 1: way that they're going to retaliate. But that is not

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Speaker 1: the only piece of significant news that I wanted to

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Speaker 1: bring you guys. This is also incredibly, incredibly important and significant.

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Speaker 1: Five Air Force refueling planes were hit in an Iranian

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Speaker 1: strike on Saudi Arabia. They were damaged on the ground

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Speaker 1: at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, Cornelia. To

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Speaker 1: two US officials, they were hit during an Irani and

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Speaker 1: missile strike on the Saudi base in recent days. Sent

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Speaker 1: Come declined to comment. Tankers were damaged, but not fully

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Speaker 1: destroyed and are being repaired. One of the officials said

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Speaker 1: no one was killed in the strike. So this comes

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Speaker 1: on top of that very strange incident that we told

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Speaker 1: you about where an air tanker, this same type of

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Speaker 1: air tanker had some sort of accident involving another US plane.

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Speaker 1: The other plane was able to land safely, that tanker crashed.

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Speaker 1: We now know all six crew members that were on

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Speaker 1: board were killed. We were told by the government that

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Speaker 1: this was not friendly fire. And it also was not

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Speaker 1: Iranian fire. It was some sort of accident. There is

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Speaker 1: an Iraqi militia, Iranian aligned Iraqi militia that is claiming credit.

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Speaker 1: So we have no idea really what happened there, But

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Speaker 1: in any case, we do know that now we have

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Speaker 1: seven of these refueling tankers that are at least currently

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Speaker 1: out of commission that you know, seems to be a

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Speaker 1: strategic choice from the Iranians. You know, you can't fly

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Speaker 1: these longer range missions without having access to these refueling tankers,

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Speaker 1: so it limits what you're able to do. Uh So,

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Speaker 1: you know, in the same way that they have targeted

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Speaker 1: the radar and the THAD battery system of the Patriot

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Speaker 1: missile systems, they also see to have targeted these tankers.

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Speaker 1: Unless this was just you know, happened to be what

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Speaker 1: was convenient or available for them to be able to strike,

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Speaker 1: but obviously very interesting and very significant that you have

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Speaker 1: those the Iranians still able to conduct those sorts of

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Speaker 1: strikes and exact that kind of damage on the United

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Speaker 1: States military. Going back to the escalation front, this was

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Speaker 1: some additional news that was breaking while we were doing

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Speaker 1: the Friday Show, and we weren't able to get it in,

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Speaker 1: but obviously this is incredibly, incredibly noteworthy. More marines and

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Speaker 1: warships head to the Middle East as Hormuz mission intensifies.

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Speaker 1: The Pentagon is also weighing sending more destroyers to escort tankers.

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Speaker 1: Pentagon is moving additional marines and warships than the least

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Speaker 1: as Aron steps up its attack and the US prepares

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Speaker 1: to escort tankers through the waterway. Now, the military analysts

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Speaker 1: that I've seen have said that that it would be

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Speaker 1: an impossible mission, that it would be far too dangerous

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Speaker 1: unless you actively occupied the coastline. They're in Iran, so

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Speaker 1: in you know, overt ground invasion in order to be

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Speaker 1: able to you know, protect that space, because otherwise, if

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Speaker 1: you just have your tanker, if you're just escorting these

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Speaker 1: tankers through, then you and the tankers are both going

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Speaker 1: to be sitting ducks for Iranian attacks. So that's why

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Speaker 1: you know, when you see, now, okay, they're sending these

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Speaker 1: marines from this amphibious ready group and the thirty first

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Speaker 1: Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Middle East, you have to

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Speaker 1: ask the question, what are they preparing for? So this

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Speaker 1: is I think some twenty five hundred marines that are

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Speaker 1: being sent in UH. They say. The Amphibious Reading Group

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Speaker 1: is a fast response unit used to conduct sea based

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Speaker 1: amphibious assaults, humanitarian aid missions, and special operations. The group's

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Speaker 1: embarked Marine Expeditionary Unit includes more than two thousand marines.

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Speaker 1: In addition of the marine unit, the Pentagon is also

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Speaker 1: waying Sentcom's requests for to additional destroyers to help escort

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Speaker 1: commercial ships through the straight One of the officials said,

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Speaker 1: and there's been a lot of speculation, including from myself,

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Speaker 1: that they are going to inevitably end up with boots

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Speaker 1: on the ground in round some sort of invasion, because

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Speaker 1: that is the logic of the escalation trap that Trump

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Speaker 1: finds himself now in, because you have to accomplish some

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Speaker 1: sort of goal to even declare mission accomplish, you know,

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Speaker 1: and try to claim that this has all been some

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Speaker 1: grand success. But even if you do that, the Iranian

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Speaker 1: strategy is we need to make these people pay a

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Speaker 1: severe price so that we don't find ourselves back here

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Speaker 1: again in another six months or in another year. There

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Speaker 1: needs to be enough pain that the US and Israel

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Speaker 1: think better of coming back and doing this to us again.

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Speaker 1: So even if Trump, you know, at this point, says, oh,

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Speaker 1: I destroyed their military assets on carg Island, I destroyed

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Speaker 1: their launchers or whatever thing he wants to go. I

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Speaker 1: killed the Iatola, and I did all these you know,

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Speaker 1: amazing military feats and we're good. You know, they're they've

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Speaker 1: been degraded, et cetera, and tried to walk away there.

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Speaker 1: It would be illogical for the Iranians to walk away,

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Speaker 1: and all the signals that they have said is that

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Speaker 1: they have no interest in doing so at this point. Now,

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Speaker 1: I could be wrong. Many other people who are saying

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Speaker 1: the same thing, who know a lot more about it

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Speaker 1: than I do, could also be wrong. But it seems

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Speaker 1: on its face to be fundamentally irrational for the Iranians

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Speaker 1: to accept the US declaring mission accomplished and walking away

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Speaker 1: and you know FIS and to cease their attacks on

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Speaker 1: their side. So that is the logic of the escalation trap.

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Speaker 1: So if the Iranians are going to keep going, the

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Speaker 1: US is also going to keep going. The US as

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Speaker 1: the empire and the hegemon, and Trump in particular, given

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Speaker 1: his narcissistic personality, you cannot lose face in this. It

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Speaker 1: cannot be seen that you are retreating, cannot be seen

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Speaker 1: that you know you're giving in to the Iranians, and

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Speaker 1: so that means they continue up the escalation ladder, which

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Speaker 1: is why I find it incredibly likely that we are

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Speaker 1: going to end up with ground forces, and it seems

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Speaker 1: very possible that these marine units which are being sent

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Speaker 1: in are the first step in that direction. There are

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Speaker 1: a lot of rumblings coming from you know, people of

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Speaker 1: sources within the PENTAGONA, within this administration that things are

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Speaker 1: headed in that direction. So we'll see. I did also

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Speaker 1: see people saying online, I haven't double checked whether this

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Speaker 1: is the case or not, but that this was also

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Speaker 1: the way that the invasion in Vietnam began, the first

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Speaker 1: boots on the ground with a similar deployment of a

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Speaker 1: very similar type of marine force. So I guess history rhymes,

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Speaker 1: especially when you have idiots who seem very interested in

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Speaker 1: repeating the worst mistakes of the past. Let me just

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Speaker 1: I've got two more things here that I really wanted

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Speaker 1: to bring you guys today. This was quite extraordinary comments

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Speaker 1: from David Sachs, who is in the administration. He is

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Speaker 1: also a podcast host over at the All In Podcast.

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Speaker 1: He is the White House Crypto Czar, and he is

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Speaker 1: really sounding the alarm here about the way that the

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Speaker 1: Iran war could turn catastrophic and even raising the possibility

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Speaker 1: that Israel could launch a nuclear weapon. Let me go

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Speaker 1: ahead and play these comments for you.

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Speaker 3: You also have to, I think, considered the impacts on Israel.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's hard to know exactly how much damage

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Speaker 3: Israel is taking right now there's a social media blackout,

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Speaker 3: but what you're starting to hear trickle out is that

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Speaker 3: Israel's getting hit harder than they've ever been hit before

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Speaker 3: in their history. And we're only two weeks into this.

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Speaker 3: If this war continues for weeks or months, then Israel

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Speaker 3: could just be.

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Speaker 2: Destroyed there very large parts of it. Now.

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Speaker 3: I think Israel is a harder target than the Goal States.

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Speaker 3: Their infrastructure is more hardened. Also, their further away the

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Speaker 3: Gold States are vulnerable to drones and short range missiles,

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Speaker 3: whereas Israel is.

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Speaker 2: Mainly vulnerable to long range missiles.

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Speaker 3: Nonetheless, at some point their air defenses could become exhausted

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Speaker 3: if it hasn't happened already, and Israel could get seriously destroyed.

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Speaker 2: And then you have to worry about Israel.

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Speaker 3: Escalating the war by contemplating using a nuclear weapon, which

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Speaker 3: would truly be catastrophic. So there's a lot of scenarios here,

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Speaker 3: a lot of really frightening scenarios about where escalation could lead.

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Speaker 3: And even though the United States is a much more

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Speaker 3: powerful country than Iran, they essentially have a dead man

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Speaker 3: switch over the economic fate of the Golf States, and

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Speaker 3: even potentially beyond that, you know the habitability of some

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Speaker 3: of these countries. So I do tend to think that

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Speaker 3: this is a good time to declare victory. I think, Brad,

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Speaker 3: you're right that the president has never said that democracy

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Speaker 3: promotion is one of his objectives. Jakel Obviously everyone would

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Speaker 3: welcome if the people rose up and chosen new regime,

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Speaker 3: but that's not something that we've said we have to accomplish.

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Speaker 1: So really quite significant comments. They are coming from a

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Speaker 1: Trump administration insider. I mean, just think about this. This

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Speaker 1: is not someone in the Pentagon, right, but this is

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Speaker 1: someone who was part of the Trump administration, and he's

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Speaker 1: saying this could be catastrophic. He's saying that the Iranians

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Speaker 1: have a can basically kill the Gulf economies altogether if

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Speaker 1: they want that. Israel somewhat more hardened, but that they

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Speaker 1: are also extremely vulnerable here as well if their defensive

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Speaker 1: capabilities are exhausted. And that's an allusion to the the

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Speaker 1: issue of the interceptors which are being fired off at

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Speaker 1: a rapid pace right now. And the Iranians, meanwhile, have

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Speaker 1: you know, continue to have more missiles in reserve and

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Speaker 1: continue to have vast, almost I think, inexhaustible trows of

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Speaker 1: these shawhed drunes, which they not only have stockbile, which

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Speaker 1: are very expensive to produce, and I you know, I

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Speaker 1: don't know whether the US has been able to degrade

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Speaker 1: their capacity to produce those drones. There's no indication that

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Speaker 1: they have. And you're talking about I've seen estimates everywhere

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Speaker 1: from those drones cost only seven thousand dollars to produce

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Speaker 1: all the way up to you know, something like fifty

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars. In any case in military terms, that is

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Speaker 1: absolutely numbing. They're extremely cheap given the amount of damage

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Speaker 1: that they're able to inflict. And meanwhile, you're sending these

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Speaker 1: you know, million dollar interceptors at you know, routinely at

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Speaker 1: these sorts of these sorts of challenges from Iran. So

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Speaker 1: in any case, you've got him saying, yeah, they could

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Speaker 1: kill the golf economies. They could ultimately inflict a lot

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Speaker 1: of damage on Israel, and that Israel if they get

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Speaker 1: back into a corner like that, may well deploy a

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Speaker 1: nuclear weapon and then all hell will break loose. So

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Speaker 1: he's urging President Trump to declare mission accomplished. Look, he says,

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Speaker 1: you've never talked about democracy promotion. We don't need a democracy,

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Speaker 1: Like let's just say we did a great job, congratulations

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Speaker 1: that we're been to try to walk away. Of course,

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Speaker 1: the problem with that is the question, you know, I

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Speaker 1: raised earlier of what would Iran agree? Would they also

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Speaker 1: walk away? Would they say we're done? I think that

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Speaker 1: seems very unlikely. The other angle that's important here with

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Speaker 1: regard to David Sachs, I said, he's you know, he's cryptozar.

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Speaker 1: He's obviously heavily like involved and invested in AI development.

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Speaker 1: These are the his spheres of expertise, and AI development

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Speaker 1: is also gravely threatened by which is not something that

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Speaker 1: I mind in particular, but in any case, this will

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Speaker 1: be something that's top of mind for him. Gravely threatened

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Speaker 1: by these developments, both because these data centers and the

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Speaker 1: you know, the AI growth is predicated on energy prices

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Speaker 1: staying comparatively low. And then in addition, you have massive

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Speaker 1: data centers in the Gulf Arab States. This has been

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Speaker 1: a major push from them. Sex I think has been

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Speaker 1: you know, involved in touting some of these deals and

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Speaker 1: how significant they are for AI development. The Iranians have

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Speaker 1: named these tech companies as direct targets. I know at

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Speaker 1: least one, maybe two data centers have already been hit

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Speaker 1: either intentionally or by debris and caused damage, So that's

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Speaker 1: a problem. You also have a lot of investments coming

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Speaker 1: from these Gulf Arab states, which is what we talked

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Speaker 1: about before, into you know, the data center and the

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Speaker 1: tech space. So I'm sure he's also has to be

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Speaker 1: thinking about what that means for the future. And then

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Speaker 1: the last thing that I wanted to bring to you guys,

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Speaker 1: here is an update from the Israeli. Israeli side of things,

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Speaker 1: so they have announced their planet sees the entire area

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Speaker 1: south of Lebanon's Littany River in a massive ground invasion.

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Speaker 1: That's according to Israeli and US officials they're talking to Axios.

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Speaker 1: According and Axeo says, this would be the largest Israeli

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Speaker 1: ground invasion of its northern neighbor since two thousand and six,

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Speaker 1: dragging Lebanon to the epicenter of the escalating war with Iran.

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Speaker 1: Pete Hexath tried to tell everybody on Friday that the

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Speaker 1: war was not widening, the war was shrinking, the war

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Speaker 1: was narrowing, that Iran was on its knees, that it

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Speaker 1: was practically finished, that they had been obliterated. And meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: you know, not only is that apparently not the case,

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Speaker 1: given that Iran is still able to inflict damage, including

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Speaker 1: to are you know, refueling aircraft, including to there was

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Speaker 1: a rocky embassy, the US embassy in Iraq that was struck,

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Speaker 1: that oil field that I showed you earlier, or oil

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Speaker 1: storage rather that I showed you earlier. So they're continuing

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Speaker 1: to be able to inflict damage. But in addition, you know,

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Speaker 1: you not only do you not have you know, them

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Speaker 1: on their knees, but Israel is very investive in continuing

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Speaker 1: to widen this war and using this as an opportunity

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Speaker 1: to go for their most maximum skulls. So they're going

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Speaker 1: to invade and occupy and ethnically cleanse this part of Lebanon,

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Speaker 1: significant part of Lebanon, So you know, there's been already

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Speaker 1: a lot of reporting about significant civilian death toll in

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Speaker 1: that area. HESBLA has been able to fire back, which

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Speaker 1: I think is not something that the Israeli is necessarily expected,

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Speaker 1: that they still had that level of strength. It's certainly

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Speaker 1: not something that I had expected, and I think perhaps

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Speaker 1: it was a bit of a wild card that yet

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Speaker 1: another thing that military planners did not plan for. You

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Speaker 1: also have the possibility of the Huthis becoming more engaged here,

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Speaker 1: which would create even more problems in terms of the

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Speaker 1: oil markets and the economic shock here, which again is

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Speaker 1: a key goal of what the Iranians are doing. So

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Speaker 1: in any case, you know, as the weekend proceeds, we

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Speaker 1: continue to see them climbing up that escalation ladder, and

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Speaker 1: we continue to see Trump further and further enmeshed in

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Speaker 1: that escalation trap. So that's where we are, guys. I

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Speaker 1: will bring any additional significant updates to you as they

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Speaker 1: unfold this weekend and soccer, and I will definitely see

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Speaker 1: you on Monday