1 00:00:04,760 --> 00:00:08,080 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg P and L Podcast. I'm Pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,119 --> 00:00:11,159 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Abramowitz. Each day we 3 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:14,480 Speaker 1: bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews for 4 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg P L Podcast on iTunes, 6 00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: SoundCloud and at Bloomberg dot com. All right, Craig Johnson, 7 00:00:29,440 --> 00:00:31,160 Speaker 1: tell us what's going on in the world of Nike, 8 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: and then we'll get to other stores in a second. Yeah. Um, So, anyway, 9 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:37,960 Speaker 1: Nike is having a little bit of a rebound, and 10 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: not that they've been in bad shape, but Nike remains, 11 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:43,480 Speaker 1: you know, one of the two or three strongest, most 12 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:46,519 Speaker 1: recognized brands in the world, very very powerful, and so 13 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 1: they had a you know, they had a perfectly solid 14 00:00:49,800 --> 00:00:53,240 Speaker 1: quarter and uh, both profits and top line up. I 15 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 1: think the top line was about eight percent or so. 16 00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: So they're they're doing okay. Um now in the meantime, 17 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 1: uh under armor. You know, we don't do stock prices, 18 00:01:02,440 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 1: but you know, the stock has got a pulled back 19 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 1: for this year. But it's not that they're having any 20 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:09,440 Speaker 1: you know, great giant troubles. You know, their sales are 21 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 1: up over profits up I think fift at their last 22 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:16,959 Speaker 1: quarter they reported maybe a month month and a half ago. 23 00:01:17,800 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 1: And then the UH the folks whould really come on 24 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 1: quite strong as Audi doc and UH and that brand 25 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 1: has been as by the way people do anyway, they 26 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 1: they they a D S let's call it that because 27 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:34,639 Speaker 1: it's called by the symbol. So they they've been doing fine. 28 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:37,319 Speaker 1: And in fact, you've had night's rebound in the in 29 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 1: the marketplace. Customers like them, and they've they've moved their 30 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:44,679 Speaker 1: R and D effort locally in the US from Germany 31 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: to be more current with a kind of US taste 32 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 1: and interests in the preferences. And of course for those 33 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 1: who lived in New York area, they've opened this huge, 34 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:55,960 Speaker 1: rually magnificent flagship on Fifth Abo right about about a 35 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 1: forty six trade. It's really spectacular, quite quite something. You know, Craig, 36 00:01:59,600 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 1: you in your in your outlook that so far, the 37 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 1: retail UH scene seems to be the best in many years. 38 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 1: This has been the best season for shopping in a 39 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 1: long time. UM. And yet we're still seeing stories about 40 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: stories like J J Crew, which just can't seem to 41 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 1: get out of its death spiral. You know, what do 42 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 1: you expect as far as the bankruptcy is going, is 43 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 1: uh this year's positive development enough to stave off bankruptcy 44 00:02:29,560 --> 00:02:33,080 Speaker 1: for some of these firms. Well, Um, what we're seeing 45 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:36,920 Speaker 1: overall is is kind of a two giant migrations in retail. 46 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 1: One is the migration from a channel point of view 47 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:43,079 Speaker 1: from from store based retail to online and online we're 48 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 1: predicting is going to be about eighteen percent of total 49 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:48,960 Speaker 1: sales over the holiday season and and that's really quite something, 50 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:52,160 Speaker 1: is growing in about four plus a year of a 51 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 1: year UM. And the second migration is internally within within 52 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:59,800 Speaker 1: within stores and there's there has been a migration away 53 00:02:59,800 --> 00:03:03,359 Speaker 1: from apparel stores including J Crew, but not only J 54 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:08,240 Speaker 1: Crew UM to UH non apparel uses of spending and 55 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:10,520 Speaker 1: UH and that's just that's a long term trun it's 56 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 1: been exacerbated to in recent years. And UM, and that 57 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 1: means there's going to be a raft of both winners 58 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 1: and losers in apparel land. And that's just it's the 59 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:23,680 Speaker 1: world we live in. Craig, Let's talk about bed Beth 60 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 1: and beyond. They are going to report their results after 61 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:29,119 Speaker 1: the close of trading today. How's their business faring well. 62 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 1: It's kind of interesting. Now there is a tale of 63 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 1: two cities in the third quarter of being much different 64 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:37,839 Speaker 1: than in the fourth quarter. We've seen quarters to date. Um. 65 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 1: And you know, their quarter wrapped right after the Black 66 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 1: Friday U weekend I think in November, and the third 67 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 1: quarter will be not that great, and they were very 68 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 1: soft for for much of the fall um and then 69 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 1: but things did pick up across retail. Things picked up 70 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:57,680 Speaker 1: after the election about by mid about November, mid November, 71 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:00,120 Speaker 1: and so they were able to capture because they have 72 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 1: that you know, delayed quarter that they're going into November 73 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:06,600 Speaker 1: twenty eight UM. Uh, so they're able to capture some 74 00:04:06,680 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 1: of the rebound then and then months to date, I mean, 75 00:04:09,880 --> 00:04:11,880 Speaker 1: you know this is they're still very early into the 76 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 1: into the Q four UM. They have been doing uh 77 00:04:15,640 --> 00:04:18,359 Speaker 1: really quite well. Along with the almost the entirety of 78 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 1: the home sector, whether it's home improvement guys like Depo 79 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:26,160 Speaker 1: and Lows or weather home furnishings. Where we've seen a 80 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:30,039 Speaker 1: lot of strength across the board, uh is restoration hardware 81 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:32,960 Speaker 1: an asterisk. I would call that a little bit of 82 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:35,320 Speaker 1: an exception that may prove the rule. They've they've had 83 00:04:35,360 --> 00:04:38,599 Speaker 1: some challenges. Um. Uh. You know, we think they're getting 84 00:04:38,600 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 1: their their ducks in a row together, but they they've 85 00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 1: been a little bit challenged for for many months now 86 00:04:43,960 --> 00:04:47,040 Speaker 1: with some supply chain issues. You know. One thing I'm 87 00:04:47,040 --> 00:04:51,040 Speaker 1: struck by is that in the corporate credit world, we're 88 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 1: definitely are a lot of people think we're getting to 89 00:04:53,120 --> 00:04:56,640 Speaker 1: a later stage where it's a lot of these companies 90 00:04:56,640 --> 00:04:59,920 Speaker 1: are starting to build on leverage and they've already overextended. 91 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 1: Looking into consumer credit, I'm trying to figure out as 92 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 1: you talk about the different sectors uh, and then and 93 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:10,919 Speaker 1: then better than expected shopping season, where what does this 94 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 1: indicate about where we are in the consumer credit cycle. Well, 95 00:05:16,839 --> 00:05:19,279 Speaker 1: there we're seeing a situation where personal savings rates are 96 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 1: still quite high, about five and a half plus percent. 97 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:28,159 Speaker 1: We think that starting to come down consumer credits. Household 98 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:30,560 Speaker 1: balance sheets are much much are the healthiest they've been 99 00:05:30,600 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 1: in years, um, and so with incomes gradually rising over 100 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:37,800 Speaker 1: the last year or so, things are looking better now. 101 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 1: The implications though for distressed uh that retailers, Um, that's 102 00:05:44,560 --> 00:05:46,880 Speaker 1: a little bit of a different animal because there were 103 00:05:46,880 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 1: seeing some people that are having strong performance, such as 104 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 1: like toys or US. And then we have other folks, 105 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:57,160 Speaker 1: whether it's UH crew you mentioned, whether it's players UM 106 00:05:57,320 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 1: and some of the other players out there that that 107 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 1: have had UH we'll just say a few more challenges. Craig, 108 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 1: just can we go back to UH Adidas or Audidas 109 00:06:08,320 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: and their success because they've now got the number two position, 110 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 1: they've surpassed under Armour I believe is this rebound from 111 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:19,480 Speaker 1: where they were? Is this for real? Because they noticed 112 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:24,159 Speaker 1: the Stan Smith, the heritage brands, UH partnerships with Kanye West. 113 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:27,040 Speaker 1: Is that going to mean that Adidas is going to 114 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:30,279 Speaker 1: just continue to go to another strength. Well, they have, 115 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 1: you know, we we think they really have stepped on 116 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 1: the gas and as you might know, they have a 117 00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:39,480 Speaker 1: new CEO in there. UM over the past year and UH, 118 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:42,240 Speaker 1: we've already seen an improvement there. Now most of their 119 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 1: strength has been you know, again on the footwear side 120 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:47,039 Speaker 1: of things under oarm Our Apparel, we think, we we 121 00:06:47,160 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 1: believe is still very very strong. H The performance where 122 00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 1: UM but UH A d S has been has been 123 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:56,720 Speaker 1: really coming on quite strong, and we think a lot 124 00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 1: of reflection, you know, the new managements that's on board 125 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:02,200 Speaker 1: and the fact that they're becoming much more in tune 126 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: with the US market. Originally some market research they've done, 127 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:08,680 Speaker 1: and now as I mentioned that they've they've cited that 128 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:11,720 Speaker 1: in an R and d UH center right here in 129 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 1: the US versus trying to monitor the US market from 130 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:18,520 Speaker 1: back in Germany. Thank you so much for joining us. 131 00:07:18,560 --> 00:07:22,040 Speaker 1: Craig Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners, coming to us 132 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 1: from New Canaan, Connecticut. Just want to mention Adida's shares 133 00:07:25,640 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 1: of fifty so far this year, Nike shares down, this 134 00:07:31,560 --> 00:07:48,880 Speaker 1: is bloom. The shares of FedEx are down about two 135 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 1: and a half percent after profit at the air freight 136 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 1: carrier that took a hit from rising investment in its 137 00:07:56,520 --> 00:07:59,120 Speaker 1: ground delivery business. And here to tell us more is 138 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 1: to teach Jin. Though he is the president of s 139 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 1: J Consulting Group, he joins us from Swickly, Pennsylvania, So 140 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 1: teach always a pleasure tell us about FedEx and the 141 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 1: challenges that the company faces, not necessarily just from ups 142 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 1: but from the likes of Amazon as well as Uber. Well, 143 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 1: this is a very interesting time for watching this company 144 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 1: and the industry. And as you commented, Uh, people think 145 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 1: there's a lot of investment. The growth of Farcel business 146 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 1: is of a kind that in my being in it 147 00:08:36,600 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 1: for twenty plus years, I have not seen. And the 148 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:44,800 Speaker 1: peak is becoming higher and higher and more difficult because 149 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 1: when you have packaged volume increasing in the B two 150 00:08:48,200 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 1: B space, you don't add extra stuffs, but when you 151 00:08:51,440 --> 00:08:54,439 Speaker 1: do it for consumers, you're going to new addresses, and 152 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 1: that affects performance and productivity in service of a kind 153 00:08:58,559 --> 00:09:01,319 Speaker 1: that people can't understand and who are used looking at 154 00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:06,319 Speaker 1: annual statements and ten case for FedEx to have incorporated 155 00:09:06,360 --> 00:09:11,120 Speaker 1: and built hundred and five facilities, and I've been involved 156 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:14,640 Speaker 1: with them, it is a remarkable edition. And if they 157 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 1: don't do it, then they continue to risk losing the 158 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 1: business of these big online retailers that they are handling. 159 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 1: And people don't realize they think Amazon doesn't use few 160 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:29,080 Speaker 1: pious and FedEx. They still move millions of packages for 161 00:09:29,240 --> 00:09:32,760 Speaker 1: Amazon and other online retailers. And if they're going to 162 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:37,359 Speaker 1: stay as a good option for them for these online retailers, 163 00:09:37,400 --> 00:09:39,959 Speaker 1: they have to be able to handle it throughout the year, 164 00:09:40,240 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 1: but more importantly, during a peak that is also not 165 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:48,680 Speaker 1: becoming bigger but also getting spread out over several weeks. 166 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:50,839 Speaker 1: I wanted to go back you made an interesting point. 167 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 1: You know, people think that Amazon and other online retailers 168 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:59,920 Speaker 1: have their own channels for distributing packages other than FedEx 169 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:04,920 Speaker 1: or ups, but they are really reliant on uh these companies. 170 00:10:05,679 --> 00:10:08,840 Speaker 1: What about drones? I mean, we've heard plenty about delivery 171 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:11,640 Speaker 1: drones and sort of Amazon trying to create their own 172 00:10:12,280 --> 00:10:15,960 Speaker 1: horde of these flying self self flying vehicles. Is this 173 00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:20,040 Speaker 1: it all threat? You know, not for at least a 174 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 1: few years, for various reasons. I do believe that the 175 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 1: next five years, or maybe a little longer, we will 176 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 1: ourselves has seen them with our eyes, packages being dropped 177 00:10:33,160 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 1: off at people or places that we know of. However, 178 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,480 Speaker 1: there are few limitations. One is the regulatory that moves 179 00:10:40,520 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 1: at a very slow pace and can't keep up with 180 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:45,880 Speaker 1: the pace that twist technologies moving. But the other thing 181 00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 1: is that drones are first going to be only used 182 00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: in rural areas where they don't have to deal with 183 00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 1: all the wires and everything else that comes in the 184 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 1: way of coming down to the lower level to drop 185 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:01,480 Speaker 1: a package in someone's front out. The other thing is 186 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:05,280 Speaker 1: that they are still limited in handling certain items that 187 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 1: have to be small, that have to be lightweight, and 188 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 1: all that is going to take time to evolve, and 189 00:11:11,400 --> 00:11:14,920 Speaker 1: then some things required signature. You can't get a signature 190 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 1: from a drone, not yet. I think that's the quote 191 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:22,680 Speaker 1: of the day. You can't get a signature from a drone. 192 00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 1: I love it. So I was just going to give 193 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 1: you some detail, just to put this into perspective because FedEx, 194 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 1: as you just describe this massive six hundred and fifty aircraft, 195 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 1: a hundred and fifty thousand vehicles, moves twelve million packages 196 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:40,920 Speaker 1: a day. UPS moves even more more than eighteen million 197 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 1: packages a day. Can you explain this saying in the 198 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:50,199 Speaker 1: world of supply chain that density equals profitability. Well, you 199 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 1: know what that is true, There is an element of density. 200 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:54,760 Speaker 1: But when you've got in the twelve million you set 201 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:58,160 Speaker 1: for FedEx and about seventeen for UPS, that is in 202 00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:02,520 Speaker 1: the normal day to February March April. During this month 203 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: of December, fed X is handling seventeen million and UPS 204 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:10,880 Speaker 1: is handling millions, okay, And to put it in perspective, 205 00:12:11,400 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 1: that is in between one billion origin destra nation points. 206 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:20,880 Speaker 1: And for people who are listening when they fly, they 207 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 1: don't realize the airlines perform at on time when they 208 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 1: only have to fly between four airports, that comes to 209 00:12:29,200 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 1: only eighteen thousand days. So that is the complexity you're 210 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:36,800 Speaker 1: talking about. And they have a network that is unique, 211 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:39,640 Speaker 1: and which is why you find that other people can't 212 00:12:40,080 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: create a network like that and they can't compete with them. 213 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 1: Which is why ups, fed X and Post Office, between 214 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:50,319 Speaker 1: three of them, deliver ninety seven of all the packages 215 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 1: for all the shippers. And it seems like there's a 216 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:55,600 Speaker 1: pretty big barrier to entry for the Amazons of the 217 00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:58,720 Speaker 1: world to create their own fleet, a huge and I 218 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 1: don't think Amazon people will talk about it. Amazon has 219 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:04,480 Speaker 1: no interest in being a transporation company because of the 220 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:07,280 Speaker 1: market that you cater to. Start to think of them 221 00:13:07,320 --> 00:13:12,080 Speaker 1: as a transportation company. There be ratio, it's going to plummet, 222 00:13:12,400 --> 00:13:15,839 Speaker 1: and it's start off with trading at seven dollars, it's 223 00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:20,760 Speaker 1: going to trade it hundred dollars. Sat Jindell, president of 224 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 1: s J Consulting Group from Siwickly, Pennsylvania, Thank you so 225 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:38,760 Speaker 1: much for being with us. A story caught my I 226 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:43,840 Speaker 1: from Fox that highlights the difficulties the U. S. Government 227 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 1: is facing as it tries to tackle the massive amount 228 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 1: of student loans outstanding, including some that perhaps were extended 229 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:56,840 Speaker 1: under fraudulent assumptions. I want to bring in Shahin Nasira Poor, 230 00:13:57,760 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg News reporter the for US core cases and crime. 231 00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:04,679 Speaker 1: He is here in our Bloomberg eleven three oh studio. 232 00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 1: Thank you for joining us. Uh, So, can you talk 233 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:10,000 Speaker 1: to us a little bit about what the core issue 234 00:14:10,160 --> 00:14:12,679 Speaker 1: is here? For the US government? They have said they 235 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 1: would forgive some student loans that were underwritten under false pretenses, right, Uh, 236 00:14:19,920 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 1: but then they're going out they're actively pursuing uh, the 237 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 1: debt collections from those students at this point. What's going 238 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 1: on here? Well, thanks for having me on. It's a 239 00:14:29,280 --> 00:14:32,000 Speaker 1: it's a hard it's a hard question to ask. You know. 240 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,360 Speaker 1: The thing that I keep coming back to is this, 241 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 1: you know, apparent conflict of interest within the US Apartment 242 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:41,240 Speaker 1: of Education, where they are both you know, the lender 243 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:44,440 Speaker 1: um as well as a servicer. And so their job 244 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 1: on one hand is to maximize collections and minimize the 245 00:14:47,640 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 1: cost of the federal student loan program two taxpayers. But 246 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 1: on the other hand they're running the largest student debt 247 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 1: forgiveness scheme in US history. And so that that apparent 248 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 1: conflict man infests itself in ways. You know, in one 249 00:15:02,160 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 1: way in which where the federal government has decided that 250 00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:08,440 Speaker 1: by and large, tens of thousands of you know, former 251 00:15:08,520 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 1: students who attended schools owned by Corinthian Colleges, Inc. Were 252 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 1: defrauded with false job placement rates and they were duped 253 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:18,760 Speaker 1: into taking out these loans, and therefore these loans should 254 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:21,640 Speaker 1: be canceled. But on the other hand, the department and 255 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 1: the Education Department is not proactively canceling this debt. It's 256 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 1: not proactively reaching out to these borrowers. And you could 257 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,600 Speaker 1: argue that if they were a private sector creditor, that 258 00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 1: their collection tactics would amount to a violation of laws 259 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,240 Speaker 1: banning unfair and deceptive acts and practices because they are 260 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 1: collecting on debt that they have reason to believe need 261 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 1: not be repaid um. And so far they're they're not 262 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:49,800 Speaker 1: really saying much about it. If you are an eligible 263 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 1: UH borrower, what is the process by which you would 264 00:15:55,400 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 1: have your fraudulent or allegedly fraudulent loan forgiven? What's the process? 265 00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 1: It's actually really simple. There is a form that the 266 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 1: Education Department is created where all you need to do 267 00:16:07,960 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 1: is fill out you know some biographical information, name, address, 268 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:15,080 Speaker 1: telephone number, etcetera. UM, you say you know, you list 269 00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 1: the campus that you attended in the program you were 270 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:21,800 Speaker 1: enrolled in in the dates of your attendants. UM, and 271 00:16:21,840 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 1: you simply check a box where you attest to the fact, 272 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:27,760 Speaker 1: under penalty of perjury, that you relied on these job 273 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:30,440 Speaker 1: placement rates when you enrolled. You sign your name at 274 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 1: the bottom of the form, you return it, and your 275 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 1: loans should be forgiven. That is what the Education Department 276 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 1: has said the process. That's how it's supposed to work. 277 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:40,440 Speaker 1: But it's not working that way. No, it's not. They 278 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 1: are sending they've sent a few letters and a few 279 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 1: emails to borrowers informing them of this. Right, But they 280 00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:47,920 Speaker 1: also send these folks monthly bills in which there is 281 00:16:47,960 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 1: no disclosure of any kind. Same same department, same depart Well, 282 00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:53,520 Speaker 1: but you're right, and this is an important point. So 283 00:16:53,560 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 1: Corinthian College has filed for bankruptcy after being accused of fraud. UM. 284 00:17:00,880 --> 00:17:04,639 Speaker 1: If the US were to eliminate debt of all of 285 00:17:04,680 --> 00:17:08,959 Speaker 1: those who are potentially eligible for debt really from justice 286 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:12,800 Speaker 1: Corinthian College, right, it could cost the federal government nearly 287 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:15,639 Speaker 1: four billion dollars. This sort of speaks to your point 288 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:18,439 Speaker 1: checking about the sort of push pull element of the 289 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:21,159 Speaker 1: same agency overseeing both the forgiveness as well as the 290 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 1: debt collection, of managing the collection exactly. And and here's 291 00:17:25,800 --> 00:17:27,879 Speaker 1: the thing about it is, you know, look, the education 292 00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:30,719 Speaker 1: departments run by a lot of political appointees. If they 293 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,440 Speaker 1: were to forgive this debt, there would be a ton 294 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:37,000 Speaker 1: of outcry about the cost to taxpayers. And the question 295 00:17:37,040 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 1: evitably would be, well, how did the department allow this 296 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:42,240 Speaker 1: learning to go on in the first place? Where were 297 00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:44,119 Speaker 1: they when all these loans were being made? There were 298 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:47,679 Speaker 1: all these warning signs that this chain of schools was 299 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:51,880 Speaker 1: engaged in suspect behavior and suspect practices. They had previously 300 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:54,880 Speaker 1: been sued by state Attorney's General over you know, there 301 00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:59,120 Speaker 1: allegedly deceptive advertising to students. And so they make all 302 00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:03,520 Speaker 1: these loans, they book you know, expected revenues off these loans, 303 00:18:03,560 --> 00:18:05,600 Speaker 1: and then they come back and cancel them later at 304 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:09,120 Speaker 1: this huge cost of taxpayers, and folks will inevitably say, 305 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:12,000 Speaker 1: where were you when these loans are being made? Thanks 306 00:18:12,080 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: very much for enlightening us. Shaheen Nasirapor he is a 307 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:21,399 Speaker 1: US court cases and crime reporter for Bloomberg News. Much appreciated. 308 00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 1: It is my honor now to bring in Dan Fuss, 309 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:39,679 Speaker 1: vice chairman of Loomis Sales. Uh. Dan, I'm grateful for 310 00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:43,960 Speaker 1: you joining us today, and I have an important question 311 00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:48,199 Speaker 1: to ask you. We've been hearing from a lot of 312 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:52,120 Speaker 1: big bond fund managers, whether it's Jeff Gunlock, whether it's 313 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 1: Mark uisil Over at Pimco, now is the time to 314 00:18:56,600 --> 00:19:01,879 Speaker 1: be building cash and de risking. Do you agree? No, 315 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 1: not completely. I understand why, you know from reading your 316 00:19:09,080 --> 00:19:13,800 Speaker 1: column and others least, Um, I understand why they're doing it. 317 00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 1: I share the general view that the odds are that 318 00:19:19,440 --> 00:19:23,680 Speaker 1: in the US dollar, uh, interest rates are starting their 319 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 1: seclical rise. I agree with that, how far how long? 320 00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 1: There you get a wide spectrum of guessing, because that's 321 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 1: all you can do about the future. But um, there's 322 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:40,440 Speaker 1: a sort of a fatal flaw if if you go 323 00:19:40,600 --> 00:19:44,040 Speaker 1: to the let's build a lot of cash, and then 324 00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:48,479 Speaker 1: in some cases people might say I've heard it, Uh 325 00:19:48,640 --> 00:19:52,040 Speaker 1: that just in case, they'll they'll bar bellow it, and 326 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:57,359 Speaker 1: uh they'll they'll you know, buy some long whatever. Um 327 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:01,120 Speaker 1: that that gets away from the theme that you're supposed 328 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 1: to make money. UM. As cash returns rise, and they've 329 00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:11,480 Speaker 1: risen somewhat to be fair, um, it gets easier to 330 00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:15,879 Speaker 1: do the short end of that because you're rolling over 331 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:18,919 Speaker 1: every three months or whatever you're doing, and your yield 332 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 1: is going up. That's the general idea, But you have 333 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 1: to take into account the shape of the yield curve 334 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:32,399 Speaker 1: and the dispersion the yield spreads around the old curve. 335 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 1: And more importantly than either one of those is the 336 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:39,119 Speaker 1: fact that the world is now filling up with discount 337 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:44,080 Speaker 1: bonds as opposed to premium bonds. And that's a world 338 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 1: of difference when you put those things together. Um. If 339 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,720 Speaker 1: if you're not concerned about day to day or week 340 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 1: to week or even months to month, you say, well 341 00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 1: I'm going to do then is I'm going to go 342 00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:01,359 Speaker 1: ride the old curve just like the Meuning people to Uh. 343 00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 1: And that is a very very good idea. Well, hold 344 00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:08,960 Speaker 1: on a sect. So since November eighth, a lot of 345 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:11,840 Speaker 1: people we've talked to have said that they've pretty significantly 346 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 1: changed their thesis or even started to change how they invest. 347 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:22,119 Speaker 1: Have you not since November eight? Uh? Actually, uh, we 348 00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:26,920 Speaker 1: sort of unfortunately beat the rush uh and build up 349 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:31,600 Speaker 1: some cash. I'm talking now in reference to the mutual 350 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:37,560 Speaker 1: funds because we're anticipating withdrawals. Is this indexation thing and 351 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:42,119 Speaker 1: et F goes on UM, so we we built it 352 00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:46,040 Speaker 1: for that. And but the rest of the portfolio is 353 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 1: the basic structure of it is shorter and it used 354 00:21:50,560 --> 00:21:53,560 Speaker 1: to be ex the cash shorter iteration in other words, 355 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:57,920 Speaker 1: looking for a shorter maturity of the shorter and average maturity. No, 356 00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:02,520 Speaker 1: I'm going to confuse uh all the cf A students 357 00:22:02,560 --> 00:22:06,359 Speaker 1: with this. Do you have to be careful on using 358 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:11,880 Speaker 1: duration when you're in a period of time where interest 359 00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 1: rates are are moving rather strong or you know, directionally, 360 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,240 Speaker 1: it may not be a lot of uh, you know, 361 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:23,480 Speaker 1: a multi your move. But if your rates are trending 362 00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:27,320 Speaker 1: up and you're pretty sure the central bank has the 363 00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:33,439 Speaker 1: same idea or trending down, UM, then you you have 364 00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 1: to say, whoops win Uh. Duration that's fine for liability matching. 365 00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 1: But let's use average maturity and let's look at our 366 00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:50,119 Speaker 1: dispersion around the mean uh. And essentially to put into 367 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 1: math forms, UH, what we're doing is we're fattening the 368 00:22:55,920 --> 00:23:00,720 Speaker 1: middle uh, just like the waist lines around Christmas time 369 00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 1: there with all the good ease. So otherwise you like 370 00:23:03,119 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 1: the sort of five to ten year treasury No, oh yeah, 371 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,920 Speaker 1: you can do it with treasuries you have now treasuries, 372 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,119 Speaker 1: you don't have any excess spread. So you like it 373 00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:18,080 Speaker 1: for like five to ten year corporates. Yes, and uh, 374 00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:23,880 Speaker 1: if it's a taxable account with a high incriminal tax. Uh, 375 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:27,480 Speaker 1: you know, once you had the state onto it. Uh. 376 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:32,440 Speaker 1: You do the same thing in muni's and uh it's 377 00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:35,960 Speaker 1: easier to see over there. But you do the same 378 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:39,160 Speaker 1: thing in corporates. And you you know your fear when 379 00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 1: rates go up as you say, oh my god, we're 380 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 1: at the end of all the credit cycles now, you know, 381 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:48,880 Speaker 1: and get the parachutes out we go. No, no, no, 382 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 1: you don't do that. You do have to be much 383 00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:57,720 Speaker 1: more careful on the credit side. That's a given you 384 00:23:57,840 --> 00:24:02,119 Speaker 1: have to be because people who are financing are going 385 00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:05,520 Speaker 1: to have more trouble as rates go up if they're 386 00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:10,919 Speaker 1: not a fairly strong uh you know business and uh, 387 00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:16,120 Speaker 1: but if they've handled refinance already and the basic business 388 00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:20,120 Speaker 1: is a good business, not dependent on borrowing a ton 389 00:24:20,160 --> 00:24:25,440 Speaker 1: of money at lower rates, it's an important qualifier. Um, 390 00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:29,639 Speaker 1: then your best place to be is with the most 391 00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 1: spread and call protection. And uh, this is where high 392 00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,159 Speaker 1: yield comes into play. Normally, high yield, when rates have 393 00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:39,919 Speaker 1: gone down quite a bit, is a loser's game because 394 00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:42,719 Speaker 1: if it works, you get called, and if it doesn't, 395 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:47,439 Speaker 1: you get stuck. Uh and uh, Now you're in a 396 00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:52,280 Speaker 1: different setting because an early call gets more and more 397 00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:57,000 Speaker 1: expensive if you're buying this stuff, saying the eighties or 398 00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:59,879 Speaker 1: low nineties in the issue, who decides to call it 399 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:02,920 Speaker 1: one oh four? Well, that's all right, you're not shedding 400 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,760 Speaker 1: any tears. You wish you hadn't done that because you 401 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 1: have to, you know, work a little late the next night. 402 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:13,560 Speaker 1: But uh, and that's it's a different market when the 403 00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:17,800 Speaker 1: direction is up. Now, the flaw on this whole thing 404 00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,560 Speaker 1: is you can say, I'll say to myself in the 405 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,840 Speaker 1: mirror in the morning, right after I've cut myself shaving, 406 00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 1: I'll say, now, listen, listen up. That's a good warning. 407 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:31,080 Speaker 1: We're talking US dollar base. Everything I've set up to 408 00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:34,800 Speaker 1: now is US dollar base. Let's not forget the rest 409 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 1: of the world because that's going to impact what the 410 00:25:37,160 --> 00:25:40,480 Speaker 1: FED does. So don't buy any you know, don't draw 411 00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:43,960 Speaker 1: any straight lines here. Well, we're gonna all be uh 412 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,360 Speaker 1: watching our fattening medals, and perhaps that is the way 413 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 1: to go for a bun fund uh him. I'm just 414 00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:54,240 Speaker 1: taking notes. That's the last point, Dan, Can you answer 415 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 1: this in ten seconds? Lisa Brahmins wants to know do 416 00:25:56,320 --> 00:26:01,639 Speaker 1: you still like energy? How you debt some of it? All? Right, 417 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:03,680 Speaker 1: well there's an answer for you. Thank you very much, 418 00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:14,240 Speaker 1: Dan fuzz Is, Vice chairman of Loomis Sales. Thanks for 419 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,919 Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You can 420 00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:21,400 Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews at iTunes, SoundCloud, or whatever 421 00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:25,200 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm out there 422 00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 1: on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm out there on Twitter 423 00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:31,320 Speaker 1: at Lisa Abramo. It's one before the podcast. You can 424 00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,879 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio.