1 00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:08,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:14,760 --> 00:00:19,440 Speaker 2: We need to build a second category of the European Union, 3 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 2: which is, in the words of Macon, the defense Europe 4 00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 2: and that requires different methods, different capabilities, etc. Etc. And 5 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 2: we have not even seriously started to build this. 6 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to voter Nomics, where politics and markets collide. This year, 7 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:42,519 Speaker 1: voters around the world have the ability to affect markets, 8 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:45,159 Speaker 1: countries and economics like never before. 9 00:00:45,560 --> 00:00:46,080 Speaker 2: So here at. 10 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:48,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg we've created this series to help you make sense 11 00:00:48,600 --> 00:00:49,120 Speaker 1: of it all. 12 00:00:49,479 --> 00:00:53,160 Speaker 3: I'm alegro Stratton, I'm Adroom Wooldridge, and I'm Stephanie Flanders. 13 00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 1: So at the top of the show you heard from 14 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 1: our guests this week, Wolfgang Ishinga. He's a former German 15 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:01,440 Speaker 1: ambassador to the US and also the former chairman of 16 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 1: the Munich Security Conference. It's an annual conference that brings 17 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:08,280 Speaker 1: together NATO member countries and various security experts to discuss 18 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: current issues in security and defense politics, and it frequently 19 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 1: makes the news, does it not. Anyway, it was a 20 00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:21,679 Speaker 1: very interesting conversation, but it didn't include Stephanie and I. Asia. 21 00:01:21,880 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 1: You were driving this far. 22 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:26,800 Speaker 4: It was the men retaking control. 23 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 1: And you began by asking him whether democratic Europe can 24 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 1: defend itself from threats from people who want to destroy it. 25 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think he conceded, I think that Germany 26 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:41,040 Speaker 4: has been rather irresponsible for a long time. And he 27 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:43,559 Speaker 4: even conceded that there might be some virtue in Trump, 28 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:46,120 Speaker 4: in the sense that Trump really woke up Germany and 29 00:01:46,120 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 4: woke up native to the fact that they weren't or 30 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:52,480 Speaker 4: aren't spending enough on defense. And then he was optimistic 31 00:01:52,520 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 4: and said that finally everybody is beginning to get the 32 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 4: message that booting is a massive danger, and they are 33 00:01:58,160 --> 00:01:58,960 Speaker 4: spending a bit more. 34 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 3: I think that what that opening clip points to, as 35 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 3: he was talking about the need for a different kind 36 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 3: of thinking about the European Union, a different way, that 37 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:12,240 Speaker 3: it was created to solve one problem and is going 38 00:02:12,280 --> 00:02:14,920 Speaker 3: to have a different maybe even a different collection of 39 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:17,360 Speaker 3: countries to solve the problem it faces now. 40 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 4: Massive I thought that was massively interesting, both that the 41 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:22,720 Speaker 4: point is making, I think is true and is a 42 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:26,359 Speaker 4: fascinating point, but also that Germany has been a byword 43 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 4: for not quite complacency or not quite stagnation, but basically 44 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:33,080 Speaker 4: for thinking that things are just about right. And this 45 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 4: was a key member of the German establishment, saying, actually, 46 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 4: we've got to be much more innovative. The world is 47 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:41,600 Speaker 4: changing very rapidly and we need to change with it. 48 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 1: Okay, I'm going to stop you there because we're going 49 00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 1: to talk and listen to Wolfgang later and then dissect 50 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: it in great detail in a second. Also on the show, 51 00:02:48,960 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 1: we'll go over to Berlin to get a temperature check. 52 00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 1: I'll support for the Right in Germany ahead of the 53 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:57,840 Speaker 1: European elections in early June, really quite soon. But first 54 00:02:58,400 --> 00:02:59,880 Speaker 1: back to you agents. He had to tell you that. 55 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:02,919 Speaker 3: Well, actually, and this just my idea because I did 56 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 3: think often Adrian's columns a very good read. But I 57 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,799 Speaker 3: thought that your column last week about Richie Sunac was 58 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 3: particularly good Adrian. 59 00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 1: For the people who didn't see it or haven't read it, 60 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 1: it was where is Richie Sunac leader of broken Tories? 61 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:19,680 Speaker 1: The problem is not that the PM is bad at 62 00:03:19,680 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: his job, it's that he has to lead a party 63 00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 1: at war with itself. 64 00:03:23,000 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, you have a lot of people saying that Richie 65 00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:27,440 Speaker 4: Sunc is a really bad Prime minister, and that suits 66 00:03:27,480 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 4: a lot of people's narratives. You have people on the 67 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 4: right saying that he's behaved he's betrayed fundamental Tory principles. 68 00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 4: You have people on the left saying he's been a 69 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:37,840 Speaker 4: bit of a disappointment, and of course the Labor Party 70 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 4: is in the business of trashing Sunac. I don't think 71 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:43,720 Speaker 4: he's a first rate politician, but I think he's a 72 00:03:43,720 --> 00:03:46,600 Speaker 4: pretty good politician. He's a good enough politician to have 73 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 4: risen to the top of the Tory Party at a 74 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:53,160 Speaker 4: very young age, the youngest Prime Minister since Lord Liverpool. 75 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 4: And when it comes to political judgment, he's made a 76 00:03:56,280 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 4: number of judgment calls, backing Brexit, backing Boris, to all 77 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:03,000 Speaker 4: the things that he needed to do to be in 78 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 4: line with the soul of the Tory Party. So I 79 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 4: think he's a pretty good politician. 80 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 2: Briti Asian. 81 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 4: By the way, he did believe I think that's right. Yeah, 82 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 4: I think that's right. So his judgment is in alignment 83 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:17,360 Speaker 4: with the Tory Party. The real problem is not Richie 84 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:20,400 Speaker 4: Sunac and his personality in his political judgment, and he's 85 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 4: not a good fall guy. The real problem is with 86 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:24,600 Speaker 4: the nature of the Conservative Party, which is a broken, 87 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 4: divided and quite frankly pretty crazy party at the moment. 88 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:29,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, I just say this is probably the time where 89 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:33,200 Speaker 3: we have to remind listeners. But one of our three 90 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:35,840 Speaker 3: who isn't me or Adrian, has actually worked as an 91 00:04:35,880 --> 00:04:39,040 Speaker 3: advisor to Richie Sunac. Yeah, indeed, so we get our 92 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 3: disclaimers in, but means she has a particularly insightful view 93 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:43,280 Speaker 3: on this. 94 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:44,840 Speaker 1: I know, well, I did enjoy it, but I was 95 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:46,840 Speaker 1: saying he did believe all those things that Adrian says, Yeah, 96 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: I think that's right. I know that's right, something like 97 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 1: the Rwanda program, which Richie does believe. He believes in 98 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:56,840 Speaker 1: that program. Brexit, he believed in that program. So if 99 00:04:56,880 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: I think back to covering labor, so they were in 100 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:02,000 Speaker 1: ninety seven, they go out in twenty nine and twenty ten, 101 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:04,280 Speaker 1: and I remember covering all the coups that there were 102 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 1: then in quite some depth. And I wonder if there's 103 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 1: a sort of extent to which after ten years, thirteen, 104 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: fourteen years, any political party is knackered. And it's a 105 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:18,279 Speaker 1: question a statement whether it's just you need some time 106 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:20,000 Speaker 1: to reflect away from the I. 107 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:23,360 Speaker 4: Think exactly true that they're tired. But there's something more 108 00:05:23,400 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 4: going on with the Tory Party than that, and that's 109 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 4: that the party was fundamentally broken by Brexit, partly because 110 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:32,479 Speaker 4: Brexit drove away a lot of very good people, so 111 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:34,600 Speaker 4: they're even more knackered because some of the people who 112 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:37,839 Speaker 4: would have refreshed them have gone, but also that Brexit 113 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:40,839 Speaker 4: failed in the sense and because it failed, they're casting 114 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:43,720 Speaker 4: around either for villains if they're on the right or 115 00:05:43,760 --> 00:05:45,160 Speaker 4: if they're on the left of the party and think, 116 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 4: my god, we're central to this party which has made 117 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 4: a terrible judgment. 118 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 3: Well, I guess we can separate two things. We could 119 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 3: definitely have a conversation about whether or not Richie Sunek 120 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:56,200 Speaker 3: is doing the best you could do in a very 121 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:59,120 Speaker 3: difficult circumstance. But I do think you made an interesting 122 00:05:59,160 --> 00:06:02,280 Speaker 3: point in your column. What has been true politics within 123 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 3: the Conservative Party and got him to where he is 124 00:06:05,320 --> 00:06:08,600 Speaker 3: has been bad economics for the country. And the other 125 00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:10,840 Speaker 3: thing which I think is problematic for him is Brexit 126 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:13,040 Speaker 3: and some of these other things that he's been associated 127 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:16,360 Speaker 3: with and has served him so well in terms of 128 00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 3: making it ahead in the Conservative Party. Is a sort 129 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 3: of tension between that and his sort of personal brand. 130 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 3: He can't get away from the fact that he's a 131 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:26,120 Speaker 3: kind of fully paid up member of the global kind 132 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 3: of cosmopolitan elite. He was a successful city person and 133 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 3: if you've got the city and much else in UK 134 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:36,240 Speaker 3: business getting harmed often sidelined by Brexit, it just has 135 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:39,800 Speaker 3: implanted attention in his brand and in his reputation, which 136 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:41,479 Speaker 3: I think is an added problem for him. 137 00:06:41,640 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 4: Absolutely. The Tory Party has managed to put together a 138 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 4: winning coalition under Boris Johnson, which was a coalition between successful, 139 00:06:50,040 --> 00:06:53,039 Speaker 4: fairly rich southern people on the one hand and the 140 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:55,839 Speaker 4: just about managing on the other hand, and Boris somehow 141 00:06:56,000 --> 00:06:59,920 Speaker 4: appealed to both groups, and that coalition has fallen apart. 142 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:00,120 Speaker 2: Now. 143 00:07:00,120 --> 00:07:04,400 Speaker 4: It's fallen apart for very solid economic reasons because Rexit 144 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 4: didn't deliver the economic boost was supposed to deliver. But 145 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 4: it's also fallen apart because it's the sort of coalition 146 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:14,360 Speaker 4: that's held together by a charismatic strong man. And Rishi, 147 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 4: whatever he is, is not a charismatic strong man. He's 148 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:17,840 Speaker 4: a technocrat. 149 00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 1: All fascinating stuff. But I think it's possibly also more 150 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 1: prosaic than everything you've just said, which is, if you 151 00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:27,040 Speaker 1: look at the decline in the Conservative polling, it starts 152 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: with Party eight since December twenty twenty one, and then 153 00:07:30,600 --> 00:07:34,920 Speaker 1: another precipitous fall is the trust forty nine days. Whilst 154 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:38,240 Speaker 1: everything you've said is cogent and eloquent as always, Adrian 155 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:40,160 Speaker 1: is actually I think that the sort of what he's 156 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 1: dealing with as well are the kind of the scandals and. 157 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:47,640 Speaker 4: The poor chi he doesn't drink. He was opposed to 158 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:50,440 Speaker 4: his trust, she was his opponent, and he's getting the 159 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 4: fallout for both of those things. 160 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 3: There was an early stage where sort of things post 161 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:58,520 Speaker 3: Liz trusts, something's just working better in White or post 162 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 3: Liz trust post Boris Johnson. There was a sort of 163 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 3: glow around getting things done. But it's hard to be 164 00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 3: a technocrat when you're actually dealing with the consequences of 165 00:08:07,280 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 3: many years of underfunding and sort of chaos in some 166 00:08:11,240 --> 00:08:14,200 Speaker 3: parts of the NAHS. I do think that we should 167 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 3: take a moment to, at least in my case, just 168 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 3: to slightly ridicule just the number of resets, even if 169 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:22,160 Speaker 3: we think that he's on a very tough wicket and 170 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 3: blah blah blah. But he was the force of radicalism 171 00:08:26,400 --> 00:08:28,600 Speaker 3: and change in the Tory Party conference. Then a few 172 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:31,360 Speaker 3: weeks later, the old former Prime minister comes in as 173 00:08:31,360 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 3: a Foreign secretary. This week I don't know what you 174 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:36,480 Speaker 3: think about this, Adrian, but to try and stake out 175 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:39,840 Speaker 3: blue water between him and Kirs Sarma on defense spending 176 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 3: on the basis of a three week old, unfunded pledge 177 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,560 Speaker 3: to raise defense spending by half a percent of GDP, 178 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 3: when that would only take it back to where it 179 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 3: was when Labor left office. 180 00:08:49,480 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 4: There are very strange things going on from Downing Street. 181 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:55,040 Speaker 4: On the one handers this and Grant chapped the Defense 182 00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 4: min Ister saying we're now in a war footing well, 183 00:08:57,320 --> 00:09:00,559 Speaker 4: where did that come from? On war footing half percent 184 00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 4: of gaut And then you had the chance of the 185 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 4: checker saying we're going to create a new Microsoft in Britain, 186 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 4: a British Microsoft, without any sort of sense of how 187 00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 4: and when and why. You can see why what the 188 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:16,599 Speaker 4: mechanics of this. These are big announcements. There's no preparation 189 00:09:16,679 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 4: for them, there's no follow up. They're just thrown out 190 00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:20,720 Speaker 4: there as if perhaps they'll stick on the wall. 191 00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 1: At some point we're all both looking at a strategic 192 00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:27,760 Speaker 1: comms for the Treasury. I feel somewhat on the hook 193 00:09:27,840 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 1: for these points, but look, I think it is a 194 00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:33,200 Speaker 1: political fact that the Labor Party are at least twenty 195 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:36,440 Speaker 1: points ahead, and I think in that context, I genuinely 196 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 1: don't see them as resets. I think downing stream don't 197 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:42,319 Speaker 1: see them as resets. They see them as we are 198 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:44,080 Speaker 1: going to make an argument that we want you to 199 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 1: listen to now. And I think that completely take your 200 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:51,280 Speaker 1: point that the conference speech saying everything that happened in 201 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:54,360 Speaker 1: the last thirty years was crash and then bringing back 202 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 1: the Prime Minister from that period of thirty years, David Cameron, 203 00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 1: that was incoherent. Other than that, I think you're allowed 204 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:03,920 Speaker 1: to say, how do I want to connect with people? 205 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 1: Have I connected so far with this view of the 206 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:08,720 Speaker 1: world I have? I think some of them are resets 207 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:10,760 Speaker 1: and some of them are not. Sometimes I think it's 208 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:13,680 Speaker 1: fair for them to want to have that permission to 209 00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,680 Speaker 1: be listened to and get a message into people's heads 210 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 1: that it is a more dangerous timing. And I think 211 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:21,160 Speaker 1: all of us around this this in this studio would 212 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 1: accept that we started the year thinking the election would 213 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:27,760 Speaker 1: be about economics. It probably still will be largely about economics, 214 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 1: but there will be this defense and security tinge to it, 215 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:34,920 Speaker 1: and don't even though many of the defense and security 216 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:37,720 Speaker 1: threats were around in January. We were all convinced it 217 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 1: was going to be about interest rates and inflation and 218 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:43,400 Speaker 1: so on, and it will now have that different flavor, 219 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 1: which is about threats and perils ahead. I'm going to ask, 220 00:10:47,800 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 1: are we allowed to move on? 221 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:53,719 Speaker 3: I think we got a natural segue. 222 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 1: We're going to go to Berlin. I'm going to enjoy 223 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:00,559 Speaker 1: going to Berlin and away from West We're going to 224 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:05,080 Speaker 1: another believed leader to speak to our German government. Reporter 225 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:15,559 Speaker 1: Michael Ninaba, Hi, Michel, how are you Hi? 226 00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 5: I'm fine, Thanks for having me on the show. 227 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:20,440 Speaker 1: You've just been back from a trip away with Schultz, 228 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:20,960 Speaker 1: is that right? 229 00:11:21,720 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 5: Yeah, we returned yesterday from a two day trip to Sweden. 230 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:28,559 Speaker 5: Were shots on the first day, and Monday met his 231 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:31,720 Speaker 5: Nordic counterpart and they had the Nordic Summit and he 232 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 5: was a special guest, and then they were obviously also 233 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:37,840 Speaker 5: bilateral talks with the Swedish counterpart on Tuesday, and yeah, 234 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:39,720 Speaker 5: it was in a good mood. Also in the evening 235 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 5: he joined the journalists at the hotel bar and stayed 236 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:45,280 Speaker 5: up late and we discussing things that always off the record, 237 00:11:46,240 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 5: how late. 238 00:11:46,800 --> 00:11:48,320 Speaker 1: Is late, how late is late? 239 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:53,079 Speaker 5: There wasn't what beyond midnight, and that's some point he 240 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:54,960 Speaker 5: changed to the red wine to coffee and. 241 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 1: Tell us, tell us what has he got to be 242 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 1: jolly about on his polls, the worst polls for any 243 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 1: chancellor in German polling history. 244 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:05,760 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's not looking that they're great right now. I 245 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:08,760 Speaker 5: mean the posts were actually even worth the last year 246 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 5: when the three parties and short coalitions were actually figuring 247 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 5: about nearly everything. But nonetheless the coalition still sticking together 248 00:12:16,040 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 5: now and it's the third year, and next year we 249 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:22,199 Speaker 5: have elections coming up, federal elections but now obviously to 250 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,520 Speaker 5: the European elections in June and then three really important 251 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:29,040 Speaker 5: regional election in three eastern states in September. And it's 252 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 5: not looking too good for Short Social Democrats. They are 253 00:12:32,679 --> 00:12:37,559 Speaker 5: basically are far behind the opposition Conservative, the party of 254 00:12:37,679 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 5: former tenthla Angela Merkel, and the Short Social Democrats are 255 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:46,680 Speaker 5: far behind around fifteen percentage points. And the past six months, 256 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:50,719 Speaker 5: the right wing populist the alternative for Deutsche Lander af 257 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:55,120 Speaker 5: the party actually surpassed the Social Democrats in the poll, 258 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,880 Speaker 5: and this also showed how difficult the situation for shortice. 259 00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 3: And I think that's the alternative for noise on the AfD, 260 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 3: which tends to be a focus for people outside for 261 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:09,319 Speaker 3: historical reasons, but also I think people just personify fears 262 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:15,280 Speaker 3: of populism gaining sway, and especially in Europe's largest economy. 263 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:17,959 Speaker 3: But I mean, do we focus too much on them? 264 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:20,120 Speaker 3: Obviously it looks like their pollings come off a bit 265 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 3: and they've had some scandals in the last few weeks. 266 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:25,320 Speaker 5: In Germany also, they are pretty much in the headland 267 00:13:25,360 --> 00:13:29,040 Speaker 5: and in the fold everyone's obsessed with them, not only 268 00:13:29,200 --> 00:13:32,640 Speaker 5: a foreign media on Anglo Saxon and media. Obviously this 269 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:35,880 Speaker 5: is also unkettling a lot of German But there has 270 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 5: been like a shift in a port and in the 271 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 5: port it started at the beginning of the year with 272 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:46,080 Speaker 5: this revelation that there was a meeting of nationalist then 273 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 5: AUSO senior up the members where they discussed basically a 274 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 5: deportation scheme getting not only a Thilum speaker and foreigners 275 00:13:54,960 --> 00:13:56,959 Speaker 5: out of the countries, but basic all of the German 276 00:13:57,040 --> 00:13:59,960 Speaker 5: citizens with a citizenship but with foreign roots to kick 277 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 5: them out of the country, which pretty much echoed the 278 00:14:02,520 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 5: policies and in deportation schemes of other Hitler and Nazis. 279 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:10,199 Speaker 3: And then we saw the mass demons demonstrations. 280 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:13,560 Speaker 5: Yeah, it was pretty huge. There were like hundreds of thousands, 281 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:17,559 Speaker 5: like over several weekends. The count was basically millions of 282 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:20,280 Speaker 5: Germans took it to the streets to the protest against 283 00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:23,400 Speaker 5: the far right and typically against the AfD. And after 284 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:27,000 Speaker 5: that support in the polls it started to edge down. 285 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:31,120 Speaker 5: It's still falling because there were also other scandals or 286 00:14:31,440 --> 00:14:35,040 Speaker 5: revelations I would say, showed that some lawmakers or eight 287 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:39,800 Speaker 5: two lawmakers of the AfD had linked to either Chinese 288 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 5: secret intelligence or even the Russian States. 289 00:14:42,600 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 4: Now there seems to be a big divide on the 290 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 4: right in Europe about Russia, with some being very pro 291 00:14:48,360 --> 00:14:51,000 Speaker 4: put in some being quite hostile to puting. Where does 292 00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:52,640 Speaker 4: the a FD fall on that spectrum. 293 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 5: So the RD is clearly for immediate stop of weapons 294 00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 5: support for Ukraine. So this is pretty much ro Russia's 295 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 5: high on Russia, the witch list, I would say. They 296 00:15:04,120 --> 00:15:09,080 Speaker 5: are also pretty much in favor of winding back European integration, 297 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:13,600 Speaker 5: taking a power back from Brussels to Berlin. And basically 298 00:15:13,680 --> 00:15:16,960 Speaker 5: if this plan does not work, they want to keep 299 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 5: the door open for Germany to leave the European Union, 300 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:24,320 Speaker 5: So they are basically seeing Brexit Britain's exfit from the 301 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:29,800 Speaker 5: European Union as a blueprint if they don't get their way, 302 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:34,160 Speaker 5: So they are nationalists. They don't believe in closer European integration, 303 00:15:34,240 --> 00:15:38,680 Speaker 5: which is also basically a goal of poutine rights to 304 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 5: the weeken European integration. So you can divide and rule 305 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:44,760 Speaker 5: and have your weight. 306 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 4: And what is the relationship between the AFT and the Conservatives? 307 00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 4: Do they take votes from each other, do they support 308 00:15:51,360 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 4: each other? How do they work together all apart? 309 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 5: Yeah, in Germany, this is one of the most tricky 310 00:15:58,800 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 5: things for the opposite leader of a big maths right now, 311 00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 5: he's on the one hand talking about a Chinese wall 312 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:08,120 Speaker 5: a brand Mauer against the f DAY which means no 313 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:12,080 Speaker 5: corporation at all on any estate level, between the city 314 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:16,600 Speaker 5: Conservatives and the far right r Day. But practically he 315 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 5: is in the part year. He did some interviews in 316 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:23,600 Speaker 5: which he basically was mimicking anti foreign rhetoric, pretty much 317 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 5: like resembling what the Aftery is saying. For one example, 318 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 5: Germany has given asylum to more than one million Ukrainians 319 00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:32,880 Speaker 5: leading from the fighting, so he said they are stealing 320 00:16:33,440 --> 00:16:36,120 Speaker 5: appointments at the dent and so the normal Germans can't 321 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 5: get an appointment at the doctor anymore. This shows you 322 00:16:39,200 --> 00:16:42,160 Speaker 5: a bit how also, who supposedly is a center right 323 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:46,040 Speaker 5: politician is changing his rhetoric in an attempt to secure 324 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 5: support and vote. So it shows how the r D 325 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:55,040 Speaker 5: is also influencing the Conservatives party there agenda, their rhetoric 326 00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:57,400 Speaker 5: and basically with it the whole political debate. 327 00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:01,440 Speaker 3: The perspective that we might remind ourselves of is unlike 328 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 3: in France, for example, where you have marin Na Penn, 329 00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:08,600 Speaker 3: the leader of the resseantan Nationale formerly National Front, has 330 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:10,960 Speaker 3: a realistic shot looking at the poles of being the 331 00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 3: next Front president. There is no chance of having the 332 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 3: AfD leader becoming chancellor anytime soon. But of course the 333 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,800 Speaker 3: question is how much do the mainstream parties feel they 334 00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:24,879 Speaker 3: have to absorb those views, And you think that's very much. 335 00:17:25,000 --> 00:17:27,200 Speaker 3: The Conservative Party is a different animal now than it 336 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:29,200 Speaker 3: was a few years ago before, after you had had 337 00:17:29,240 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 3: this new rise in support. 338 00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, it has definitely shifted to the right of not 339 00:17:33,200 --> 00:17:36,320 Speaker 5: so much moderate and center as it was under Anguila Mercle. 340 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:39,879 Speaker 5: But having said that, the RD of the people of 341 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:43,240 Speaker 5: future will never get that strong that it would be 342 00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 5: even getting close to winning the Chancery. And even there's 343 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:51,720 Speaker 5: actually no coalition constellation in which the r D would 344 00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:55,199 Speaker 5: currently get close to power. But the thing is now 345 00:17:55,320 --> 00:17:57,920 Speaker 5: at the beginning I mentioned the three regent elections in 346 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 5: the East, September is in fact sepdemic exactly that AFDI 347 00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:05,680 Speaker 5: is still pulling pretty strong and it's projected to come 348 00:18:05,720 --> 00:18:09,359 Speaker 5: in as the strongest parties in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg. 349 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 5: And this will make the whole process of coalition building 350 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:16,399 Speaker 5: really difficult for the other parties and to stick to 351 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 5: this mantra and to this pledge that they would never 352 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:21,440 Speaker 5: work together with the af D. 353 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:23,640 Speaker 3: I think we're beginning to understand why I left shows 354 00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:25,000 Speaker 3: Field and need to drink a lot of coffee. 355 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 1: No, Michael, promise us you'll come back. You'll save all 356 00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 1: your stories of red wine till midnight and coffee with 357 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:33,720 Speaker 1: the German chancellor for vhotonomics. 358 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,200 Speaker 5: We'll do happy to come back and join you again. 359 00:18:36,280 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 1: It was a lot of fun, all right, Thank you 360 00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 1: very much, Mihail Nina Bauer, who is our German correspondent 361 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:49,440 Speaker 1: in Berlin. Next Adrian I can't think of a more 362 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:53,840 Speaker 1: Adrian style guest than Wolfgang Ishinger, former German ambassador to 363 00:18:53,880 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 1: America forty five years in the German Foreign service. 364 00:18:57,160 --> 00:18:59,440 Speaker 3: It's a real shame you can't see Adrian's face. 365 00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:01,239 Speaker 4: I don't know what to say about that. I mean, 366 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:04,400 Speaker 4: I've never been accused, even my best friends, of being 367 00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:07,600 Speaker 4: a potential ambassador. I don't think I'm particularly diplomatic in 368 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:09,600 Speaker 4: the way I present things. I thought he gave a 369 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,600 Speaker 4: very interesting assessment of what's going on in Germany. But 370 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:17,159 Speaker 4: I started off by asking him whether Germany can spend 371 00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:21,440 Speaker 4: enough on defense given that voters don't want to do so, 372 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 4: And this is the answer he gave us. 373 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:27,440 Speaker 2: First of all, let me be very clear about my 374 00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 2: own fundamental belief. I certainly believe that democracies are going 375 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:39,520 Speaker 2: to be able to defend themselves, their borders, their people, 376 00:19:39,720 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 2: their territories against whatever dictatorship's authoritarian regimes. But obviously we 377 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:53,640 Speaker 2: have a problem. Democracy is the best form of government 378 00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:57,560 Speaker 2: that has so far been invented, but it has a 379 00:19:57,680 --> 00:20:02,119 Speaker 2: number of drawbacks, and among them rawbacks is an inherent 380 00:20:02,800 --> 00:20:09,480 Speaker 2: lack of efficiency. Democracy always requires debate. There's no put 381 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,200 Speaker 2: in in a democracy. Who can simply say this is 382 00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 2: the way we're going to do things from now on, 383 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:20,000 Speaker 2: which makes things difficult. Sometimes we seem to take two 384 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 2: steps forward and then one step backward. If you look 385 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:26,720 Speaker 2: at the development over the last three, four, five, six 386 00:20:26,880 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 2: decades of the project of European integration, it's been difficult, 387 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:37,359 Speaker 2: but at the end successful process. 388 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:40,440 Speaker 4: You say successful. But perhaps we are not spending enough 389 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:43,440 Speaker 4: money on defense. We have been a sort of free 390 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:47,879 Speaker 4: rider on America's spending on defense. Can we do anything 391 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 4: about this suboptimal spending? Are we addressing this problem? 392 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 2: Well, of course you're right. The diagnosis at this moment 393 00:20:58,800 --> 00:21:03,760 Speaker 2: is that we have been negligent, not only my own country, 394 00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:07,720 Speaker 2: not only Germany, but Europe in general has been negligent 395 00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:13,760 Speaker 2: in terms of defense expenditure. But the only reason over 396 00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 2: the last twenty five or so years to continue to 397 00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:23,000 Speaker 2: have an army was to think about emergencies elsewhere, whether 398 00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:27,480 Speaker 2: it was Afghanistan or outside of the European Union cause 399 00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:33,360 Speaker 2: of all in Southeastern Europe, or African emergencies. The idea 400 00:21:33,560 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 2: that we would need to go back to defend our 401 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:42,959 Speaker 2: own territories is a realization that has come upon us 402 00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,359 Speaker 2: rather recently. We need to do a lot more to 403 00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:50,800 Speaker 2: defend ourselves. We need to upgrade our defense expenditures. That's 404 00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 2: been a process that was started exactly ten years ago, 405 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 2: in twenty fourteen, and it's been hard. It's been difficult. 406 00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:00,119 Speaker 2: It continues to be difficult, especially in my own. 407 00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,080 Speaker 4: This process of remembering and adjusting to the fact that 408 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 4: there is a different world. Now, how far has it got? 409 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:11,680 Speaker 4: Are you moving away from rhetoric towards real decision making 410 00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 4: in terms of spending In. 411 00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:18,000 Speaker 2: Upcoming elections in Germany, in Poland, in Hungary, in France, 412 00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:26,240 Speaker 2: there will be major forces arguing that this war which 413 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:31,159 Speaker 2: Russia is currently conducting against Ukraine should be ended immediately, 414 00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:35,400 Speaker 2: certainly by not delivering any more Western weapons to Ukraine, 415 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 2: because there needs to be some kind of a cease 416 00:22:38,320 --> 00:22:41,280 Speaker 2: fire and the peace of arrangement. There continue to be 417 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 2: substantial elements of our political spectrum which are not in 418 00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:53,640 Speaker 2: favor of continuing to spend more. It has been will 419 00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,240 Speaker 2: continue to be an uphill battle. 420 00:22:56,600 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 4: This is why leadership matters, and democracy. Leadership matters enormously. 421 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 4: Leaders have to address changing problems. They have to see 422 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,800 Speaker 4: over the parapets, and they have to mobilize the people 423 00:23:06,920 --> 00:23:09,320 Speaker 4: have we got the leadership in Europe, both in Germany 424 00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:13,879 Speaker 4: and in the EU more broadly, to address this mounting 425 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 4: problem of aggression from the anti democratic world. 426 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:23,760 Speaker 2: Let me dividing my answer into two parts. First, on Europe, look, 427 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:29,479 Speaker 2: with respect to the project of European integration, we're now 428 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:34,640 Speaker 2: confronted with a very fundamental question. The project of European 429 00:23:34,720 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 2: integration was not about defending Europe against outside aggression. It 430 00:23:39,680 --> 00:23:43,840 Speaker 2: was about integrating between Germany and France, making war among 431 00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:47,439 Speaker 2: the members of the European Community or now the European 432 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:53,280 Speaker 2: Union impossible, and integrating that includes the so called internal market, 433 00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:57,760 Speaker 2: which has still not been completely achieved. But it is 434 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:02,520 Speaker 2: essentially a project that has absolutely nothing to do with 435 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:08,680 Speaker 2: the military, with defense, et cetera. It was Emmanuel macam 436 00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 2: who came up a couple of years ago with this notion, 437 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 2: we need to create a Europe which can defend itself. Now, 438 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:21,960 Speaker 2: that is an entirely different Europe than the Europe which integrates. 439 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,720 Speaker 2: And the problem is that we can talk about it, 440 00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,720 Speaker 2: and we can even define what would need to be 441 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:33,280 Speaker 2: done in order to create a Europe that can defend itself. 442 00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,000 Speaker 2: But I have to tell you it's a long road. 443 00:24:36,640 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 2: It is a totally different project. It requires different methods, 444 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:46,000 Speaker 2: different approaches, and we certainly cannot defend ourselves as a 445 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:50,560 Speaker 2: European Union if we continue to base our decisions in 446 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 2: Brussels on consensus or on unanimity rather than on majority rule. 447 00:24:57,200 --> 00:25:00,399 Speaker 4: You're suggesting something absolutely fundamental here, that Youurope is a 448 00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:05,160 Speaker 4: solution to yesterday's problems and a deliberate evasion of today's problems. 449 00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,159 Speaker 2: Absolutely, that's what I'm trying to suggest to you. I 450 00:25:08,280 --> 00:25:11,640 Speaker 2: think that it is. I think Emanuel Macon has a point, 451 00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:15,080 Speaker 2: and I think we should give serious thought to what 452 00:25:15,240 --> 00:25:18,119 Speaker 2: would it require to build a Europe that can actually 453 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:20,160 Speaker 2: defend itself. Currently we can't. 454 00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:23,600 Speaker 4: But that almost suggests we have to redesign Europe again 455 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:26,760 Speaker 4: for a different set of problems, which is a huge challenge. 456 00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,480 Speaker 4: What could be done to start off this great reconceptualization 457 00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 4: of the European project. 458 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:35,960 Speaker 2: Well, at the moment, the Project of European Integration we 459 00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:39,639 Speaker 2: have twenty seven members. We are waiting for the countries 460 00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:42,400 Speaker 2: of the Western Balkans, for Ukraine and a few other 461 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:45,960 Speaker 2: candidates to join over the next few or not so 462 00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:49,560 Speaker 2: a few years, and that project needs to be continued. 463 00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 2: That's the integration project. But we need to build a 464 00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:57,800 Speaker 2: second category of the European Union, which is, in the 465 00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 2: words of Macon, the defense Europe. And that requires different methods, 466 00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:06,240 Speaker 2: different capabilities, et cetera, etc. And we have not even 467 00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:11,240 Speaker 2: seriously started to build this. In my view, it is 468 00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:16,840 Speaker 2: practically impossible to believe if one it's realistic, that we 469 00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:22,760 Speaker 2: could convince all twenty seven members of the existing European 470 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:28,280 Speaker 2: Union to join into such a defense oriented European Union, 471 00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:33,080 Speaker 2: a second project in addition to the integration Europe. And 472 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:39,240 Speaker 2: if my impression is correct, then of course the next 473 00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:44,760 Speaker 2: question is should we try to start to build such 474 00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:51,640 Speaker 2: a defense focused Europe with a smaller group of core countries. 475 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,800 Speaker 2: This is an idea which was developed almost thirty years 476 00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:59,800 Speaker 2: ago by Wolfgang Shoybel, one of the leading German political 477 00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,800 Speaker 2: leaders for the last number of decades, the theory of 478 00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:08,879 Speaker 2: an inner circle of EU member countries. Just imagine what 479 00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:14,439 Speaker 2: it might look like if Poland, Germany, France, maybe Italy, 480 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:19,480 Speaker 2: the Benelux countries, maybe Spain maybe plus the Baltic countries 481 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:21,960 Speaker 2: would get their act together and would say we are 482 00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:26,120 Speaker 2: now creating a kind of additional layer in the European 483 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:30,160 Speaker 2: Union with different methods of decision making, and we will 484 00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:33,720 Speaker 2: focus on our defense capabilities. We will do a lot 485 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 2: of pooling and sharing. We will buy our military equipment together, 486 00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:41,399 Speaker 2: not separately. We can save a lot of money by 487 00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:45,920 Speaker 2: doing that. We will train our military people together, not separately. 488 00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:48,960 Speaker 4: What role would the UK plan this grand scheme of 489 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:49,919 Speaker 4: reinventing Europe. 490 00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:54,159 Speaker 2: I think that would be the one opportunity that I 491 00:27:54,359 --> 00:27:58,640 Speaker 2: can see, if I interpret my English friends correctly, where 492 00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:05,240 Speaker 2: actually our British friends might see advantage in joining, either 493 00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:10,800 Speaker 2: directly or indirectly as an associate partner such a European 494 00:28:11,560 --> 00:28:15,200 Speaker 2: defense project. We are already, of course linked together with 495 00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:20,159 Speaker 2: the UK through NATO, But the idea of developing a 496 00:28:20,520 --> 00:28:24,240 Speaker 2: European structure that would allow us to do what Donald 497 00:28:24,280 --> 00:28:28,280 Speaker 2: Trump and others have been asking for now for many years, 498 00:28:28,760 --> 00:28:31,720 Speaker 2: namely that we should carry a larger part of the 499 00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:36,000 Speaker 2: common defense burden. I think that would be a credible answer, 500 00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:39,560 Speaker 2: and Britain could be a key player in that, as 501 00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,440 Speaker 2: being a nuclear power, being a permanent member of the 502 00:28:43,400 --> 00:28:47,040 Speaker 2: UN Security Council along with France, etc. That would be 503 00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:50,320 Speaker 2: an entirely different than the current one that we have 504 00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:52,080 Speaker 2: in the integration Europe. 505 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:56,120 Speaker 4: I find all these ideas extremely exciting and sympathetic, but 506 00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:59,120 Speaker 4: I wanted to bring in the question of the voters. 507 00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:02,200 Speaker 4: Whenever i'm we eat security people or military people or 508 00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:06,720 Speaker 4: policy people, they're all very concerned about the new Cold War, 509 00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,280 Speaker 4: about Putin, about China and the rest of it. Voters 510 00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:12,720 Speaker 4: don't seem to be on board with this. They don't 511 00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:15,240 Speaker 4: seem to be nervous about what's going on. They seem 512 00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:17,720 Speaker 4: to think of it as a distant problem. They're more 513 00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:20,600 Speaker 4: concerned about bread and butter questions rather than war and 514 00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:24,280 Speaker 4: peace questions. What can the leaders of Europe or the 515 00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:28,840 Speaker 4: people who are involved in security issues due to persuade 516 00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:30,840 Speaker 4: people that this is a real threat or set of 517 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:32,880 Speaker 4: threats that we're facing that we haven't faced for a 518 00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:33,360 Speaker 4: long time. 519 00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 2: Let me try to give an answer to this question 520 00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:40,920 Speaker 2: by focusing on particularly on my own country of Germany, 521 00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:44,000 Speaker 2: which of course I know better than most of the 522 00:29:44,160 --> 00:29:49,600 Speaker 2: neighboring countries. If you take a good look at German 523 00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:54,040 Speaker 2: foreign security and defense policy and the evolution of that, 524 00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:57,320 Speaker 2: you will find that there is no country in the 525 00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:05,760 Speaker 2: West that has concluded as dramatic a change of fundamental 526 00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:10,200 Speaker 2: principles of their foreign policy, security policy, and defense policy. 527 00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:13,840 Speaker 2: I'll give you an example. Have been an active member 528 00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:17,760 Speaker 2: of the German diplomatic service for forty five years or more, 529 00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:22,920 Speaker 2: and we used to treat it as a sacred dogma 530 00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:31,240 Speaker 2: that Germany would never ever deliver weapons, lethal weapons into 531 00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:35,920 Speaker 2: an area of conflict or war. That was considered to 532 00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,840 Speaker 2: be in the aftermath of World War Two, a moral 533 00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:43,720 Speaker 2: principle appropriate for the country that had started not only 534 00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:47,560 Speaker 2: World War Two, but the Holocaust, etc. Now, when you 535 00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:52,000 Speaker 2: look at what's going on right now, this country that 536 00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:55,200 Speaker 2: until two years ago had promised never to deliver a 537 00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:58,000 Speaker 2: weapon into an air of conflict is now the number 538 00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:04,000 Speaker 2: one provider of little weapons to Ukraine, far ahead of France, 539 00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:08,280 Speaker 2: even ahead of the United Kingdom, only second only to 540 00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:11,760 Speaker 2: the United States. We've completed a one hundred and eighty 541 00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:15,880 Speaker 2: degree turn, at least with respect to this principle of 542 00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:17,080 Speaker 2: arms deliveries. 543 00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:20,240 Speaker 4: Arms expert, How does that align with public opinion? 544 00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:25,520 Speaker 2: Though I think it is. You will find in polling data, 545 00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:31,040 Speaker 2: you will find that German enthusiasm for spending more money 546 00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:36,680 Speaker 2: on military support for Ukraine, for financial support for Ukraine 547 00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:41,880 Speaker 2: is still significant. It has gone down a bit, which 548 00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:45,640 Speaker 2: is normal. The democratic support, voter support will tend to 549 00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:50,880 Speaker 2: go down if no discernible victory is at hand. And 550 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,200 Speaker 2: there's more. In Ukraine has now been going on for 551 00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:57,520 Speaker 2: two years, and obviously people have now been focusing more 552 00:31:57,600 --> 00:32:01,720 Speaker 2: on Gaza, and on Israel, and on on other catastrophic 553 00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:05,320 Speaker 2: events around the world. But in principle, I think Germany 554 00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:10,760 Speaker 2: is still on course, and I would expect our Ukrainian 555 00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:16,160 Speaker 2: friends to know and to be certain that Germany will 556 00:32:16,240 --> 00:32:20,800 Speaker 2: continue to deliver what we have promised, including in additional 557 00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,960 Speaker 2: arms deliveries and other support. But it now comes to 558 00:32:25,040 --> 00:32:35,560 Speaker 2: big butt. The voter support is affected by really extremely 559 00:32:36,000 --> 00:32:43,240 Speaker 2: effective Russian propaganda. I have actually never ever, in the 560 00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:46,640 Speaker 2: fifty years that I've been in this business, I've never 561 00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:50,680 Speaker 2: experienced anything quite like it. And I do a lot 562 00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:53,840 Speaker 2: of public speaking these days, several times a week. I'm 563 00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:58,080 Speaker 2: here in Hamburg, I'm in Munich and elsewhere, and wherever 564 00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:02,560 Speaker 2: I speak, surely somebody will get up in the question 565 00:33:02,720 --> 00:33:07,360 Speaker 2: answer period and we'll say, but the Russians have a point, 566 00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:11,280 Speaker 2: don't they. We have encircled them, NATO has encircled them, 567 00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:14,920 Speaker 2: and they're only defending their own right and America would 568 00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:19,280 Speaker 2: never allow the Soviet Union to be based in Mexico. Right. 569 00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:24,960 Speaker 2: These types of Russian arguments have been extremely effective in 570 00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:27,760 Speaker 2: my country, but also in some of the neighboring countries. 571 00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:33,600 Speaker 2: In other words, this effort to maintain voter support needs 572 00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:37,480 Speaker 2: to be continued with. And you mentioned the word this 573 00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:43,320 Speaker 2: requires leadership. It really requires leadership. Sometimes I think that 574 00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:49,680 Speaker 2: our own chancellor has not shown enough ability to explain 575 00:33:50,640 --> 00:33:54,520 Speaker 2: to the voters at large why we're doing this. The 576 00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:59,200 Speaker 2: real important point which should be made to every single 577 00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:04,440 Speaker 2: voter in you U is the Ukrainians deserve our support, 578 00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:11,040 Speaker 2: not because they defend their own country vigorously, but because 579 00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:15,600 Speaker 2: the defend the freedom of all of Europe absolutely. 580 00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,799 Speaker 4: I wanted to ask you more generally about the relationship 581 00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:22,719 Speaker 4: between the United States and Europe, particularly about the possibility 582 00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:25,560 Speaker 4: of Trump winning the next election. What does that mean 583 00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:28,360 Speaker 4: for Europe's defense, Because there's one thing that Trump hates 584 00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:30,840 Speaker 4: above all others. That's the notion of being taken for 585 00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:33,840 Speaker 4: a ride, being made a fool of, and he believes 586 00:34:33,880 --> 00:34:36,359 Speaker 4: that's the case with Europe and the United States over 587 00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,120 Speaker 4: many decades. Now, what do we do to keep the 588 00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:43,160 Speaker 4: alliance strong and vigorous. If Trump wins the election. 589 00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:47,840 Speaker 2: Again, I would offer a cad of a differentiated answer 590 00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:52,960 Speaker 2: to this question. First, not everything that Donald Trump decided 591 00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:57,200 Speaker 2: to do or decided not to do during his tenure 592 00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:01,640 Speaker 2: as president was terribly wrong. As I recall the first 593 00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:07,080 Speaker 2: US president who decided to deliver weapons to Ukraine. That 594 00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:13,320 Speaker 2: wasn't Obama. It happened on Donald Trump's watch. He criticized 595 00:35:13,880 --> 00:35:18,960 Speaker 2: Germany and the European allies correctly for not fulfilling their 596 00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:22,320 Speaker 2: own promise of coming up with two percent of GDP 597 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:26,040 Speaker 2: on defense. He had a point, a very important point. 598 00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:29,759 Speaker 2: I think we're now doing better this summer. There will 599 00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:32,720 Speaker 2: be before the US elections, will be a NATO summit 600 00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:36,799 Speaker 2: in July, I guess, or end of June in Washington, DC, 601 00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:40,760 Speaker 2: and I think that NATO will be able to announce 602 00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:45,240 Speaker 2: that a significant majority of NATO countries are now meeting 603 00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:49,239 Speaker 2: the two percent goal, which will take away one but 604 00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:52,480 Speaker 2: quite obviously we need to do much more than that 605 00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:57,320 Speaker 2: the two percent which we decided to use as a 606 00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:01,879 Speaker 2: measure in twenty fourteen. I think today, given the fact 607 00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:05,480 Speaker 2: that there is now a full scale more started by Russia, 608 00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:08,960 Speaker 2: two years ago. We need to consider the two percent 609 00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:14,680 Speaker 2: goal as the minimum. We should actually aim for three percent, 610 00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:19,160 Speaker 2: if you want my opinion. Presenting that to a public 611 00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:23,120 Speaker 2: which believes that is very important that we do more 612 00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:32,279 Speaker 2: about broken infrastructure, rebuilding schools, better hospitals, higher social welfare expenditures, etc. 613 00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:37,759 Speaker 2: Is tough, but it is necessary. Europe could have a 614 00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:45,360 Speaker 2: year ago decided to give priority in the business environment 615 00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:50,919 Speaker 2: of all of Europe to the production of ammunition, arms productions, etc. Etc. 616 00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:57,480 Speaker 2: That would have required a rather fundamental priority setting decision 617 00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:03,560 Speaker 2: by the entire European Union. Didn't happen. Unfortunately, we lost 618 00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:07,880 Speaker 2: a year. We're now doing a little bit of that 619 00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:11,800 Speaker 2: here and there. But may I remind you the EU 620 00:37:12,440 --> 00:37:17,359 Speaker 2: promised Grandiosli many months ago that we would deliver one 621 00:37:17,440 --> 00:37:22,800 Speaker 2: million pieces of artillery ammunition to Ukraine by the spring 622 00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:25,759 Speaker 2: of this year. It's not happening. We're delivering less than 623 00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:28,799 Speaker 2: half of that. In other words, the European Union has 624 00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:33,600 Speaker 2: unfortunately presented itself as a paper tiger in this battle, 625 00:37:34,200 --> 00:37:38,520 Speaker 2: where when you look at the hard facts, of course, 626 00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:45,200 Speaker 2: the GDP of Russia, of the entire Russian Federation, is 627 00:37:45,239 --> 00:37:49,120 Speaker 2: about the size of the GDP of Spain, and if 628 00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:53,480 Speaker 2: you take the entire European Union plus the United States 629 00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:57,920 Speaker 2: plus the UK plus Canada, you can come up with 630 00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:03,440 Speaker 2: a number that said, as our economic power, our production 631 00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:09,360 Speaker 2: capacity is twenty five times that of Russia. So why 632 00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:13,799 Speaker 2: are we not using that more? And that requires leadership decisions, 633 00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:19,359 Speaker 2: of course, which are not necessarily only military decisions. These 634 00:38:19,400 --> 00:38:26,239 Speaker 2: are decisions that require fundamental economic, financial and strategy decisions, 635 00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:30,480 Speaker 2: which unfortunately we have not been capable of taking so far. 636 00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:33,960 Speaker 2: So I continue to believe this is an uphill battle. 637 00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:37,719 Speaker 2: Our publics in Europe have, at least some of them, 638 00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:40,600 Speaker 2: have not yet fully understood that we have a more 639 00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:44,480 Speaker 2: in Europe, that this is not the continuation of the 640 00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:48,680 Speaker 2: last thirty years of peace throughout the continent, that we're 641 00:38:48,840 --> 00:38:53,120 Speaker 2: in a different era that requires different answers, and this 642 00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:56,360 Speaker 2: is why this continues to be a really hard, uphill battle. 643 00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:59,520 Speaker 4: I just wanted to ask you about one other aspect 644 00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:03,120 Speaker 4: of public disillusionments with the elites of Europe, and that 645 00:39:03,280 --> 00:39:07,720 Speaker 4: is migration, particularly illegal migration. How much of a threat 646 00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:11,600 Speaker 4: to democratic security is this, both in terms of a 647 00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:15,280 Speaker 4: perception that we don't have secure control of our borders, 648 00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:19,800 Speaker 4: but also a sense of disillusionments amongst lots of voters 649 00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:22,719 Speaker 4: that the system is working for them, that they're not 650 00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:24,000 Speaker 4: in control of their lives. 651 00:39:24,760 --> 00:39:28,600 Speaker 2: I worry about that. A lot the decision makers throughout 652 00:39:28,600 --> 00:39:34,560 Speaker 2: the European Union have tended to underestimate the frustration within 653 00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:38,920 Speaker 2: the voter base with illegal migration. I share the view 654 00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:42,280 Speaker 2: of many who believe that we should keep our doors 655 00:39:42,360 --> 00:39:46,320 Speaker 2: open to people who flee the horrors of Sudan or 656 00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:50,440 Speaker 2: Afghanistan or Iraq, et cetera, et cetera. But then again, 657 00:39:51,440 --> 00:39:55,640 Speaker 2: we can't possibly take them all. We do need better 658 00:39:56,520 --> 00:40:01,600 Speaker 2: control of our borders. Sure that the current British effort 659 00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:06,640 Speaker 2: at the Ruanda effort is the best answer, but at 660 00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:11,640 Speaker 2: least the British government is making an effort to find 661 00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,640 Speaker 2: a solution. I think we need to look for these 662 00:40:14,719 --> 00:40:18,880 Speaker 2: types of solutions. Hopefully ways can be found to avoid 663 00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:22,760 Speaker 2: too much hardship for people who've already made to Europe 664 00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:27,280 Speaker 2: and whom we wish to go back to their home country, 665 00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:28,959 Speaker 2: whether it's Africa or the Middle East. 666 00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:33,400 Speaker 4: Worldspheare because the great fear is that if mainstream democratic 667 00:40:33,480 --> 00:40:36,920 Speaker 4: politicians can't address this problem, then countries will turn to 668 00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,320 Speaker 4: authoritarian populaces to solve this problem. 669 00:40:39,520 --> 00:40:43,160 Speaker 2: The IFDA has benefited over the last number of years 670 00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:47,160 Speaker 2: from a number of different issues. There was a concern 671 00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:53,400 Speaker 2: about the euro initially a decade ago during the financial crisis. Today, 672 00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:57,960 Speaker 2: the main driver for the success of the right of 673 00:40:58,080 --> 00:41:02,279 Speaker 2: the far right in Germany is migration, quite obviously, and 674 00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:06,600 Speaker 2: we have not yet found the border control mechanisms that 675 00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:11,960 Speaker 2: would allow us to bring these voters back to mainstream parties. 676 00:41:12,239 --> 00:41:15,560 Speaker 2: I'm afraid that in local elections this year we will 677 00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:22,000 Speaker 2: see a very unwelcome result of significant increases of right 678 00:41:22,040 --> 00:41:27,440 Speaker 2: wing parties, especially the IFD, primarily because of the migration issue. 679 00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:30,319 Speaker 4: Terrible to end on that very pessimistic note, but thank 680 00:41:30,360 --> 00:41:31,560 Speaker 4: you very much for your interview. 681 00:41:31,719 --> 00:41:32,440 Speaker 2: Thank you very much. 682 00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:42,040 Speaker 1: It is quite moving to hear somebody who, as he says, 683 00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:45,960 Speaker 1: spent forty five years in German foreign service, talking about 684 00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:50,720 Speaker 1: going from representing a country that was pacifist and wouldn't 685 00:41:51,360 --> 00:41:53,719 Speaker 1: ever contemplate in an article of faith that they would 686 00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:57,400 Speaker 1: not send arms abroad, and now, in his words, it's 687 00:41:57,400 --> 00:41:59,800 Speaker 1: one hundred and eighty degrees different, and now Germany is 688 00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:03,160 Speaker 1: the second largest supplier of arms to the Ukraine after America. 689 00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:07,640 Speaker 1: To hear him talk about how extraordinary that changes was powerful. 690 00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:09,920 Speaker 4: Yes, I thought it was very powerful, and it's an 691 00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:14,719 Speaker 4: interesting story of in Germany resistance and doubts, but then 692 00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:16,839 Speaker 4: really coming to terms with the fact that the world 693 00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:20,040 Speaker 4: has changed in very profound ways, not just in terms 694 00:42:20,080 --> 00:42:22,640 Speaker 4: of a willingness to spend money on defense, which for 695 00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:25,680 Speaker 4: obvious historical reasons they've been very reluctant to do, but 696 00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:29,600 Speaker 4: also a willingness to reconceptualize what the EU is about. 697 00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:35,320 Speaker 4: Germany's has invested such extraordinary emotional and intellectual capital in 698 00:42:35,440 --> 00:42:39,000 Speaker 4: building the European Union. This peace project was so central 699 00:42:39,040 --> 00:42:41,080 Speaker 4: to their sense of identity. But now this is a 700 00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:43,040 Speaker 4: man who's been at the heart of this process saying 701 00:42:43,280 --> 00:42:45,719 Speaker 4: we have to rethink it. I think that's extraordinary. 702 00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:49,480 Speaker 3: Do you actually think that is where other leaders in 703 00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:51,759 Speaker 3: Europe are? I was struck by the fact that he thought, 704 00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:55,040 Speaker 3: basically there was no way you could move ahead in 705 00:42:55,160 --> 00:42:57,680 Speaker 3: that sort of defense direction with all the current members 706 00:42:57,760 --> 00:42:59,239 Speaker 3: that alone, all the other ones that are coming down 707 00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:02,400 Speaker 3: the track quite soon. Obviously we hear from President Macron, 708 00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,960 Speaker 3: but are there going to be enough like minded countries 709 00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:07,720 Speaker 3: who are able to move fast enough. 710 00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:10,719 Speaker 4: To do that I think obviously Macrons and certain people 711 00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:12,600 Speaker 4: in France are really thinking very hard. I think you 712 00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:15,000 Speaker 4: did have a big problem that you have a professional 713 00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:19,520 Speaker 4: bureaucratic class in the European Union, which is very conservative. 714 00:43:19,560 --> 00:43:21,360 Speaker 4: For these are people who trained to keep running the 715 00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:24,000 Speaker 4: machinery as it's always been running. But I do get 716 00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:27,520 Speaker 4: the sense that in the capitals that matter, I Germany, 717 00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:30,600 Speaker 4: in France, there is some serious rethinking that. There is 718 00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:34,720 Speaker 4: a lot of rethinking in Sweden and the Nordic States. 719 00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:36,759 Speaker 4: And you have to remember that these Nordic states now 720 00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:39,800 Speaker 4: they was join NATO. It's thinking very much about defense 721 00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:42,319 Speaker 4: and the great tragedy here, one of the many great 722 00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:44,600 Speaker 4: tragedists to do with Brexit is Britain would have been 723 00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:49,360 Speaker 4: absolutely vital central to such a reconceptualization of what Europe 724 00:43:49,440 --> 00:43:51,400 Speaker 4: was about, and with our traditions of defense and our 725 00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:52,879 Speaker 4: traditions of having a global view. 726 00:43:52,960 --> 00:43:57,360 Speaker 1: But in this new European defense arrangement there would be 727 00:43:57,400 --> 00:43:57,799 Speaker 1: a role for. 728 00:43:57,760 --> 00:44:00,640 Speaker 4: The UK, absolutely, but we'd be coming in from outside. 729 00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:03,080 Speaker 4: It's very different from being a sort of inside player 730 00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:06,400 Speaker 4: helping to design the system. Not only did we make 731 00:44:06,440 --> 00:44:08,440 Speaker 4: a mistake, we left it exactly the wrong moment. 732 00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:11,440 Speaker 3: You and I have discussed this, but it made me 733 00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:14,080 Speaker 3: think a bit about really what I thought rather excellent 734 00:44:14,160 --> 00:44:16,600 Speaker 3: piece that the historian Timothy Gartinash has written in the 735 00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:19,920 Speaker 3: New or Review Books recently, and I recommend lots of 736 00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:21,920 Speaker 3: people to read it. He describes He says, well, the 737 00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:24,520 Speaker 3: end of history, the sort of Fukiyama idea was an 738 00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:27,320 Speaker 3: American idea, but it was the Germans who lived the 739 00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:31,080 Speaker 3: neo Hegalian dream more than anybody else. Germany, Europe and 740 00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:33,320 Speaker 3: the West altogether. It was based on the idea that 741 00:44:33,400 --> 00:44:36,440 Speaker 3: they all had a model which everyone else would converge on, 742 00:44:37,040 --> 00:44:40,680 Speaker 3: and globalization would go with democratization and all these things 743 00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:42,600 Speaker 3: we've talked about in the past. It was the basis 744 00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:45,719 Speaker 3: for having China come into the World Trade Organization. That 745 00:44:45,800 --> 00:44:48,920 Speaker 3: sort of democracy and capitalism would support each other and 746 00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:51,200 Speaker 3: you would have this global economy where lots of countries 747 00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:54,120 Speaker 3: were moving in the right direction. Germany had more vested 748 00:44:54,160 --> 00:44:56,160 Speaker 3: in that model than even the US did. 749 00:44:56,239 --> 00:44:59,799 Speaker 4: Oh Actually, globalization dream was soonified by Germany because Germany 750 00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:02,480 Speaker 4: had this idea that they could trade with China, they 751 00:45:02,480 --> 00:45:04,640 Speaker 4: could provide all the machine tools for China that they 752 00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:07,840 Speaker 4: could expand Eastwoods, that they could set up factories in 753 00:45:07,960 --> 00:45:10,759 Speaker 4: Russia where whenever you went to conferences in Russia in 754 00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:15,000 Speaker 4: the early part of this century, the Germans were massive presence. 755 00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:16,680 Speaker 4: Not only did they reach the end of history, but 756 00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:18,640 Speaker 4: there are free riders on the end of history because 757 00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:20,960 Speaker 4: America paid for their defense, so they could live in 758 00:45:21,040 --> 00:45:24,800 Speaker 4: this wonderful sort of pacifist country, trading with the whole world. 759 00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:27,759 Speaker 4: And yes it was the Hegelian. 760 00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:29,600 Speaker 3: Navana, but is that's why you get this sense that 761 00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:32,680 Speaker 3: there's a sort of deep angst that comes from and 762 00:45:32,800 --> 00:45:36,200 Speaker 3: a sort of deer in the headlights that across society. 763 00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:39,600 Speaker 3: We heard earlier from Mikhail talking about the coalition sort 764 00:45:39,600 --> 00:45:41,480 Speaker 3: of quite unusual to have so many of these three 765 00:45:41,520 --> 00:45:43,879 Speaker 3: big parties in the coalition, and that there's a sort 766 00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:45,840 Speaker 3: of stalemate that comes from that. But it's actually a 767 00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:49,320 Speaker 3: sort of national stalemate because so much was vested in that, 768 00:45:49,440 --> 00:45:52,359 Speaker 3: and it just the idea of really fundamentally moving away 769 00:45:52,440 --> 00:45:55,560 Speaker 3: from that post war model. It's absolutely very challenged. 770 00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:56,799 Speaker 4: That they had this position of not just the end 771 00:45:56,800 --> 00:45:58,600 Speaker 4: of history, but a sort of holiday from history. They 772 00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:02,000 Speaker 4: had twenty or thirty years of everything being really good 773 00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:05,759 Speaker 4: for them. They could just be rich and peaceful. And 774 00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:09,680 Speaker 4: now you see them asking a series of very profound questions. Now, 775 00:46:09,719 --> 00:46:12,200 Speaker 4: when Germans asked profound questions, some very good things happen, 776 00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:14,960 Speaker 4: as such as they rethink things from the very pot 777 00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:16,759 Speaker 4: they come up, some very bad things happen, and. 778 00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:21,000 Speaker 1: They come up with delicious new compound words, and. 779 00:46:20,960 --> 00:46:24,040 Speaker 4: Perhaps they even produce a new Hegel. But Hagel said, 780 00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:27,560 Speaker 4: the owl of Minerva flies only at dusk, this terrible 781 00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:29,560 Speaker 4: idea that perhaps the Germans rethinking. 782 00:46:30,200 --> 00:46:31,920 Speaker 3: And the way to read that, the way that we're 783 00:46:31,960 --> 00:46:34,279 Speaker 3: supposed to read that the alum nervous wisdom. So you 784 00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:36,640 Speaker 3: only find out what everything's about right at the air right. 785 00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:39,680 Speaker 4: But on the other hand, the dark side of this 786 00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:43,520 Speaker 4: is that you do have the a FD rising. You 787 00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:47,040 Speaker 4: have certain things that have been banned for a very 788 00:46:47,120 --> 00:46:49,839 Speaker 4: long time, unthinkable for a very long time, and now 789 00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:54,000 Speaker 4: thinkable again. And that is, you know, that is worrying. 790 00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:56,200 Speaker 1: I did think it was interesting that he said, I'm 791 00:46:56,320 --> 00:46:58,600 Speaker 1: just going to quote him. I'm not saying the current 792 00:46:58,600 --> 00:47:01,600 Speaker 1: British effort Rwanda is that answer, but at least it 793 00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:04,760 Speaker 1: is making an effort. And his point was that Germany, 794 00:47:04,920 --> 00:47:06,360 Speaker 1: when you did the interview but I thought it was 795 00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:08,959 Speaker 1: interesting he was saying, as indeed is the opposition leader 796 00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:11,799 Speaker 1: in Germany, that some kind of Rwanda star scheme may 797 00:47:11,840 --> 00:47:12,280 Speaker 1: be needed. 798 00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:15,640 Speaker 4: Absolutely, I'm not sure about a Rwanda Stace scheme, but 799 00:47:15,880 --> 00:47:19,400 Speaker 4: you do have a sense right around the sort of 800 00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:22,439 Speaker 4: respectable circles in Europe that people are saying, we don't 801 00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:24,960 Speaker 4: like this scheme in Britain looks perhaps a bit foolish, 802 00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:29,000 Speaker 4: but we can't just go on criticizing public discontent with 803 00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:33,000 Speaker 4: the level of immigration. Public worries about the number of 804 00:47:33,760 --> 00:47:37,040 Speaker 4: refugees or legal immigrants coming across the seas or coming 805 00:47:37,080 --> 00:47:40,160 Speaker 4: into their countries in different ways is something that needs 806 00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:42,400 Speaker 4: to be dealt with, because if we don't deal with it, 807 00:47:42,640 --> 00:47:46,520 Speaker 4: then the AfD really will take off even more than 808 00:47:46,600 --> 00:47:47,120 Speaker 4: it has well. 809 00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:48,880 Speaker 3: And I was in Zurich this week. While I was 810 00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:51,920 Speaker 3: in Switzerland, which has obviously been still doing pretty well, 811 00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:54,840 Speaker 3: and it's got very low inflation. It's even dodged that 812 00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:58,360 Speaker 3: bullet over the last few years, very rich, prosperous economy 813 00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:02,440 Speaker 3: by any definition they want. They've now reached a critical 814 00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:06,520 Speaker 3: number of signatures for a petition to have a plebasit 815 00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:09,479 Speaker 3: for capping the population at ten million, it's now at nine. 816 00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:12,200 Speaker 3: I don't know that, and in fact that employers they 817 00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:15,480 Speaker 3: have enormous labor shortages. They really struggled to be the opposite. 818 00:48:15,680 --> 00:48:19,560 Speaker 3: But there is a lot of momentum behind this proposal 819 00:48:19,640 --> 00:48:22,000 Speaker 3: to have a cap population, which actually, if you think 820 00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:24,920 Speaker 3: about it, is slightly odd because if you don't want 821 00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:27,759 Speaker 3: lots of foreigners and you've got a shrinking population, that 822 00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:30,320 Speaker 3: would mean that you're allowing for all of the growth 823 00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:34,080 Speaker 3: to be through immigration. But it was very struck because 824 00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:36,279 Speaker 3: I didn't I hadn't actually hadn't crossed my radar. And 825 00:48:36,400 --> 00:48:39,880 Speaker 3: that's even in Switzerland, which is doing well by any measure, 826 00:48:39,960 --> 00:48:42,000 Speaker 3: they want to limit numbers. I think that suggests we 827 00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:45,440 Speaker 3: need to do just Swiss photonomics could be a stretch. 828 00:48:45,480 --> 00:48:47,239 Speaker 3: I think that people who've managed to get to the 829 00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:48,919 Speaker 3: end of the German vhotonomics may. 830 00:48:48,840 --> 00:48:52,520 Speaker 1: Think, Okay, thanks for listening to this week's photonomics from Bloomberg. 831 00:48:52,920 --> 00:48:56,280 Speaker 1: This episode was hosted by me alegra Stratton, Adrian Waldridge, 832 00:48:56,360 --> 00:48:59,880 Speaker 1: and Stephanie Flanders. It was produced by Somersadi, with hell 833 00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:04,880 Speaker 1: from Chris Martlou and Julia Mann's editorial direction from Victoria Wakeley. 834 00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:09,200 Speaker 1: Sound designed by Moses and Dam with assistants from Blake Maples. 835 00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:13,920 Speaker 1: Brendan Francis Newnham is our executive producer. Stage Bauman is 836 00:49:14,000 --> 00:49:18,080 Speaker 1: Head of Podcasts. Special thanks to Wolfgang Ischinger and Michael 837 00:49:18,480 --> 00:49:22,560 Speaker 1: Nina Bauer. Please subscribe, rate, and review wherever you listen 838 00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:23,560 Speaker 1: to your podcasts