Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Lately, President Donald Trump has been talking more and more
Speaker 2: about Cuba. You know, all my life, I've been hearing
Speaker 2: about the United States in Cuba.
Speaker 1: When will the United States do it?
Speaker 3: I do believe I'll be the honor of having the
Speaker 3: honor of.
Speaker 1: Taking Cuba.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg State Department and Foreign Policy reporter Eric Martin says
Speaker 2: Trump's interest in the island nation has been building in
Speaker 2: his second term. One of the first signs was his
Speaker 2: pick for Secretary of State.
Speaker 3: The naming of Marco Rubio, Senator from Florida, the son
Speaker 3: of Cuban immigrants to the US, having grown up in
Speaker 3: this Miami exile community, and that being his political base
Speaker 3: as the nominee for Secretary of State, was a strong
Speaker 3: signal that the communist governments in the Western Hemisphere were
Speaker 3: going to be a big focus of its tension for
Speaker 3: the administration.
Speaker 1: Right out of the gate under the Utrup administration, they
Speaker 1: put Cuba back on the state sponsor of Terrorism list.
Speaker 2: Jim Wisz covers Cuba and the Caribbean for Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: And so that really kind of set the stage for
Speaker 1: everything kind of.
Speaker 2: Going forward and just over a year into Trump's second term,
Speaker 2: his administration's hard line stance and its rhetoric has only
Speaker 2: picked up after the US captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Madoro
Speaker 2: Rubio sent a warning to Cuba in a press conference.
Speaker 3: Yeah, look I have I lived in Havana and I
Speaker 3: was in the government, I'd be concerned at least a
Speaker 3: little bit.
Speaker 2: Then the US imposed an oil blockade of the island,
Speaker 2: which has crippled its economy and energy sectors. Though since
Speaker 2: the US ousted Venezuelan leader Nicholas Maduro in January, Cuba's
Speaker 2: main supplier of oil has been choked off, triggering weeks
Speaker 2: of blackouts.
Speaker 3: Some nights the entire island goes dark in its.
Speaker 2: And just last week Trump started talking about taking Cuba Cube,
Speaker 2: taking them in some form. The US's approach to Cuba,
Speaker 2: especially over the past year, has had significant impacts for
Speaker 2: people on the ground.
Speaker 1: The United Nations has basically said that the government can
Speaker 1: no longer deliver food and aid kind of the most
Speaker 1: vulnerable parts of the population simply because they don't have
Speaker 1: enough gasoline to put in the cars.
Speaker 2: So it's dire and it's all building. Jim and Eric
Speaker 2: say to an inflection point, one that could alter the
Speaker 2: course of Cuba's history and the legacy of the Trump
Speaker 2: administration forever.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a huge moment. I mean, arguably everything's
Speaker 1: at stake right now for the government. They've been in
Speaker 1: power sixty seven years and it's looking really unclear if
Speaker 1: this one party system is going to survive the year.
Speaker 3: Quite frankly, we've seen a dozen presidents come and go
Speaker 3: unable to change the government in Cuba. So if the
Speaker 3: Trump administration and Secretary of State Mark or Rubio are
Speaker 3: able to bring about that change, it would be a
Speaker 3: huge legacy issue for them and the historic change that
Speaker 3: they would be implementing and catalyzing in Cuba.
Speaker 2: I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the big take from
Speaker 2: Bloomberg News today on the show, Cuba at a turning point,
Speaker 2: Why the US has been ramping up pressure on the nation,
Speaker 2: and what could come next. When the US carried out
Speaker 2: a military operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolas Madoro
Speaker 2: in January, it was a pivotal moment for another country too, Cuba.
Speaker 2: The relationship between Venezuela and Cuba is a key piece
Speaker 2: of context for understanding what's happening today. Here's Bloomberg's gym WISZ.
Speaker 1: So you know, when Ugo Chaws took power in Venezuela,
Speaker 1: he immediately, very soon after taking power, saw Infidale kind
Speaker 1: of a mentor and kind of a godfather, and of
Speaker 1: course the the two of them became kind of the
Speaker 1: leaders of what was known as twenty first century socialism
Speaker 1: in Latin America. At the root of that relationship was
Speaker 1: Venezuela's support for Cuba. Cuba was coming out of but
Speaker 1: they was known as this special period after the fall
Speaker 1: of the Soviet Union and they lost their Soviet backing,
Speaker 1: they went through a true economic crisis, and Venezuela stepped
Speaker 1: in as kind of savior. And so this relationship developed
Speaker 1: where Venezuela was sending one hundreds of thousands of barrels
Speaker 1: of oil a day to Cuba and Cuba was paying
Speaker 1: for it by sending teachers, security personnel, engineers, and people
Speaker 1: of that sort. And so there was this barter system
Speaker 1: in place that worked very well for both sides until
Speaker 1: it didn't. And even as the Venezuelan economy started to fail,
Speaker 1: they still continued to support Cuba, and so Cuba at
Speaker 1: the end of the day, it was kind of very,
Speaker 1: very overly dependent on their Venezuelan patrons, and when Trump
Speaker 1: essentially cut that off cold on January third, you know,
Speaker 1: the effects have been very, very evident.
Speaker 3: Protesting the latest power cut on the streets of Havana
Speaker 3: after Cuba's entire electricity grid collapse last night. I think
Speaker 3: the power cut comes as campaign is delivering humanitarian aid
Speaker 3: have started arriving in the country as part of efforts
Speaker 3: to mitigate the effects of Washington's blockade. In a nation
Speaker 3: used to hardship, Cubans say the situation has never been worse.
Speaker 1: The President of Cuba, Mi Disca, has basically said they
Speaker 1: haven't had a major oil delivery in over three months, basically,
Speaker 1: you know, essentially since the US incursion into Venezuela, and
Speaker 1: the US has basically threatened anybody who comes to Cuba's
Speaker 1: energy aid that's particularly Mexico, with punitive sanctions if they
Speaker 1: do deliver fuel. Right now, as we're speaking, there is
Speaker 1: a Russian oil tanker on its way to Cuba, but
Speaker 1: there's no telling whether or not it's actually going to
Speaker 1: make it or not. One previously diverted at the last
Speaker 1: minute and ended up going to Trinidad, so they're not
Speaker 1: getting major oil shipments. Now the private sector is being
Speaker 1: allowed in theory to bring in some supplies to cover
Speaker 1: its own needs, but those are minuscule and do not
Speaker 1: really address the issue at hand.
Speaker 2: And what have those three months effectively without oil at
Speaker 2: all meant for conditions on the island.
Speaker 1: Conditions were hard to begin with, and now they're frankly
Speaker 1: quite terrible. There's been lots of reports, many of them unconfirmed,
Speaker 1: about people dying in hospitals as ventilators are getting cut off.
Speaker 1: That's part and due to the power outages, which were
Speaker 1: endemic before the fuel crunch, but they've only gotten worse
Speaker 1: since then. Industries grinding to a halt, and resorts, which
Speaker 1: are one of the big main money earners for Cuba,
Speaker 1: have had to shut down because there's not enough fuel.
Speaker 1: It's rippling all the way through society, and hunger is real.
Speaker 1: The United Nations has basically said that the government can
Speaker 1: no longer deliver food and aid kind of the most
Speaker 1: vulnerable parts of the population simply because they don't have
Speaker 1: enough gasoline to put in the cars. So it's dire.
Speaker 2: And what has that dire situation that's already been a
Speaker 2: struggle for many people in Cuba. How has that changed
Speaker 2: the political situation on the ground and people's attitudes towards
Speaker 2: their government.
Speaker 1: Well, you know, outright demonstrations protests are essentially banned in Cuba,
Speaker 1: and yet there is are more sounds, more rumblings of discontent.
Speaker 1: Over these last couple of weeks, there have been some
Speaker 1: very kind of high profile protests, including one in a
Speaker 1: little town called Moron, where basically people got together and
Speaker 1: attacked the seat of the Communist party in this town.
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of dissatisfaction on this street, some
Speaker 1: of it aimed at Washington, some of it aimed at
Speaker 1: the local authorities. I think there's a lot of blame
Speaker 1: to go around right now, But for the government itself,
Speaker 1: at least publicly, it's sticking to its ground.
Speaker 2: I asked Bloomberg's Eric Martin, who covers the State Department
Speaker 2: and Foreign Policy for Bloomberg, about why the US has
Speaker 2: been putting this pressure on Cuba and its economy, what
Speaker 2: its goals are.
Speaker 3: Cuba has had patron states throughout the last seventy years.
Speaker 3: The US is really looking to follow in those footsteps
Speaker 3: in terms of a superpower that exerts great influence and
Speaker 3: control over the island. This is an administration that has
Speaker 3: articulated a national security strategy and actual document released in
Speaker 3: December that is very focused on asserting US pre eminence
Speaker 3: and dominance in the Western hemisphere. We've seen China, in particular,
Speaker 3: trying to establish a foothold and a presence in Cuba
Speaker 3: in recent years. We've seen this patron relationship that Venezuela
Speaker 3: had with Cuba for several decades, even going back to
Speaker 3: the relationship of the Soviet Union in Cuba in the
Speaker 3: nineteen sixties. And so this has been a national security
Speaker 3: threat across different American presidencies. But it's also a priority
Speaker 3: for the Republican Party and for voters, particularly Cuban exiles
Speaker 3: in Florida. And this is administration that we see a
Speaker 3: lot of influence from Florida, and so there's a lot
Speaker 3: of constituents here that would like to see a change
Speaker 3: in an opening and a more democratic, more US friendly Cuba.
Speaker 2: I am wondering, Jim, what role do Cuban Americans and
Speaker 2: Cuban expats play in all this? How are they reacting
Speaker 2: to the situation on the island.
Speaker 1: Well, that is really interesting. I think the diaspora has
Speaker 1: been waiting for this moment for you know, sixty years,
Speaker 1: and they are interested in investing. They are interested in
Speaker 1: seeing changes in Cuba. You know, the Cuban government kind
Speaker 1: of in theory, is trying to open the doors to
Speaker 1: the just in recent weeks they have announced legislation that
Speaker 1: would allow Cuban exiles to invest in companies and own
Speaker 1: companies in Cuba and kind of participate in the economy.
Speaker 1: But there's still so many hurdles, both on the US
Speaker 1: side and on the Cuban side for that to actually happen.
Speaker 1: We shouldn't hold our breads and wait for the wave
Speaker 1: of Cuban investors coming from Miami.
Speaker 2: You mentioned, you know, one of the ways that the
Speaker 2: Cuban government has been responding. But what steps have they taken,
Speaker 2: what signals have they sent over the last three months
Speaker 2: as the US has ratcheted up this pressure.
Speaker 1: No, it's interesting. I think one thing they've been doing
Speaker 1: is kind of acknowledging it present. Migueta the escone has
Speaker 1: gone on national television a couple of times now, and
Speaker 1: you know, and basically said, yes, we're hurting these US
Speaker 1: measures are affecting us, and they keep describing as a
Speaker 1: kin to collective punishment. Everybody on the island is going
Speaker 1: to suffer because of these US policies, and so on side,
Speaker 1: I think they are kind of acknowledging their vulnerabilities and
Speaker 1: their pain in a way that maybe they haven't in
Speaker 1: quite some time, you know, acknowledging that the US is
Speaker 1: hurting them. And on the other side, again, for the
Speaker 1: lack of a better phrase, I think it's just defiance.
Speaker 1: They keep saying that, yes, we're willing to work around
Speaker 1: the margins, we're willing to let Cuban exiles invest, but
Speaker 1: we're not willing to discuss who leads our country.
Speaker 2: So without an obvious exit ramp, where could this all
Speaker 2: be heading? What paths is the Trump administration angling for?
Speaker 2: That's next. I want to walk through some of the
Speaker 2: possible paths US Cuba relations could take from here. Starting
Speaker 2: with diplomacy. Both the Trump administration and Cuban officials have
Speaker 2: confirmed their in talks. So Eric, what do we know
Speaker 2: about who exactly is at the table on what each
Speaker 2: side is looking to achieve with these talks.
Speaker 3: So we reported last month that the US is looking
Speaker 3: to replace Cuban President Miguel Dias Canel, that he is
Speaker 3: somebody who they see as having failed in terms of
Speaker 3: his economic management and his leadership in Cuba. We know
Speaker 3: that Raoul Castro, the former president and the brother of
Speaker 3: Fidel Castro, his grandson, whose name is also Raoul, is
Speaker 3: called Raulito or is sometimes his nickname is El Cancre,
Speaker 3: the Crab, has been having discussions with the Trump administration
Speaker 3: via Secretary of State Rubio. That's one name that we've
Speaker 3: seen out there as somebody who is more open, who
Speaker 3: is more of a global business mind, is more open
Speaker 3: to making a deal, is less ideological. We saw an
Speaker 3: important signaling mechanism where in a recent speech by Miguel
Speaker 3: dias Canal, the president, Raul Castro's grandson, he was in
Speaker 3: the room for that speech, which was very unusual, and
Speaker 3: so the Cuban authorities have acknowledged that these talks are
Speaker 3: going on. The US is looking to use economic pressure,
Speaker 3: particularly by cutting off energy sales to the government, but
Speaker 3: permitting energy sales to the small but fast growing small
Speaker 3: and medium sized enterprise and businesses in Cuba to foster
Speaker 3: this private sector, which they then see as leading to
Speaker 3: a political opening in Cuba. So it's kind of the
Speaker 3: same in some ways, similar to comparable to the process
Speaker 3: that we saw the attempts in Russia in the nineteen
Speaker 3: eighties to have in economic and political opening. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Well, I want to talk about that potential opening because
Speaker 2: last week, on March sixteenth, the Cuban envoyd to the
Speaker 2: US of the country is moving to allow more investment
Speaker 2: from Cubans living abroad. How big of a change is
Speaker 2: that and how did the Trump administration respond to that news.
Speaker 2: Is that the kind of deal that they're looking for here?
Speaker 3: The Secretary of Rubio has responded to that by saying
Speaker 3: it's not dramatic enough in terms of the kind of
Speaker 3: moves that the administration needs to see. And there's a
Speaker 3: lot of skepticism in the exile community about putting money
Speaker 3: into Cuba, investing money in Cuba with a government with
Speaker 3: the history of expropriation. Many of the people in the
Speaker 3: exile community in Florida are either from families that have
Speaker 3: themselves and living memory had assets expropriated, or they can
Speaker 3: remember from their parents and grandparents what that experience was like.
Speaker 3: So there's a lot of skepticism to this offering by
Speaker 3: the Cuban government in terms of opening to outside investment.
Speaker 3: Just a feeling like this is not nearly enough for
Speaker 3: what people need to see in terms of in terms
Speaker 3: of an opening and in terms of a democratization and Eric.
Speaker 2: In the lead up to these talks, and even as
Speaker 2: these talks are ongoing, members of the Trump administration have
Speaker 2: also implied that they could take a tough for approach
Speaker 2: in Cuba. Right after the US captured President Maduro in
Speaker 2: Venezuela in January, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters, quote,
Speaker 2: if I lived in Havana and I was in the government,
Speaker 2: I'd be concerned. And earlier this month, Senator Lindsay Graham
Speaker 2: told Fox News that quote, Iran is going down and
Speaker 2: Cuba is next. So Eric, what do we know about
Speaker 2: whether the US is considering a military option in Cuba.
Speaker 3: Well, we haven't yet seen a reporting of military preparations
Speaker 3: to invade Cuba or strike Cuba. But the rhetoric that
Speaker 3: we've seen from President Trump has been speaking about. Shortly
Speaker 3: after our story, he came out and talked about the
Speaker 3: idea of a potentially friendly takeover of Cuba. He's more
Speaker 3: recently entertained the idea that could be a friendly takeover
Speaker 3: or not so friendly, and so he's teased this idea
Speaker 3: of using force in Cuba. Already, the threat of force
Speaker 3: and interdiction has stopped, for instance, Mexico, which was the
Speaker 3: main supplier of oil to Cuba after Venezuela, from sending
Speaker 3: oil to Cuba, and so we've already seen the threat
Speaker 3: of force at work here.
Speaker 2: Eric, we've talked about sort of three ways that the
Speaker 2: Trump administration is pursuing putting pressure on Cuba. The first
Speaker 2: is continued talks, diplomacy, deal making, the second would be
Speaker 2: military intervention, and the third would be using financial pressure
Speaker 2: to make Cuba dependent on the US. Do we know
Speaker 2: about which option the Trump administration prefers or which option
Speaker 2: would be most likely.
Speaker 3: Well, one thing we've seen from President Trump's comments is
Speaker 3: that his expectation and his view is that Cuba wants
Speaker 3: to make a deal. But he's also talked about Cuba
Speaker 3: being dealt with. He's repeatedly said Cuba would be dealt
Speaker 3: with after Iran. So I think one important signal will
Speaker 3: be watching what happens with the current war in Iran.
Speaker 3: If there is a de escalation or a negotiation to
Speaker 3: reopen the Strait of Ormuz to de escalate the conflict
Speaker 3: in Iran. And so attention I think is likely to
Speaker 3: turn more to Cuba if there is a resolution or
Speaker 3: an easing of the conflict and the war in Iran.
Speaker 2: And Jim, I want to turn back to you here.
Speaker 2: The US has opposed the communist government in Cuba for decades,
Speaker 2: since the nineteen sixties. How significant would any of these outcomes,
Speaker 2: a diplomatic resolution, a military intervention, and economic takeover be
Speaker 2: in the sweep of Cuban history And what message would
Speaker 2: they send to the rest of Latin America.
Speaker 1: I mean, this would be incredibly significant. I mean, as
Speaker 1: you've mentioned, ever since Kennedy, successive US presidents have been
Speaker 1: trying to either force a change, negotiate a change, finesse
Speaker 1: a change and the island and it's never happened. The
Speaker 1: government has always rallied, the government has always been able
Speaker 1: to protect itself. It's an incredible story of kind of
Speaker 1: political survival in Cuba. And so if they ended that
Speaker 1: sixty seven year run of single party rule, if Trump
Speaker 1: was the one to do it, that'd be incredibly significant.
Speaker 1: There is this really romantic notion about Cuba in the
Speaker 1: Latin American left. I suspect that a Cuba that actually fell,
Speaker 1: that succumbed to Washington would only increase kind of the
Speaker 1: nostalgia of what Cuba once was. I think we'll be
Speaker 1: dealing with the consequences of whatever happens in Cuba, one
Speaker 1: way or another for decades to come in Latin America.
Speaker 2: This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder.
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