WEBVTT - What Trump Wants in Cuba

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Lately, President Donald Trump has been talking more and more

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<v Speaker 2>about Cuba. You know, all my life, I've been hearing

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<v Speaker 2>about the United States in Cuba.

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<v Speaker 1>When will the United States do it?

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<v Speaker 3>I do believe I'll be the honor of having the

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<v Speaker 3>honor of.

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<v Speaker 1>Taking Cuba.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg State Department and Foreign Policy reporter Eric Martin says

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's interest in the island nation has been building in

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<v Speaker 2>his second term. One of the first signs was his

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<v Speaker 2>pick for Secretary of State.

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<v Speaker 3>The naming of Marco Rubio, Senator from Florida, the son

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<v Speaker 3>of Cuban immigrants to the US, having grown up in

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<v Speaker 3>this Miami exile community, and that being his political base

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<v Speaker 3>as the nominee for Secretary of State, was a strong

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<v Speaker 3>signal that the communist governments in the Western Hemisphere were

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<v Speaker 3>going to be a big focus of its tension for

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<v Speaker 3>the administration.

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<v Speaker 1>Right out of the gate under the Utrup administration, they

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<v Speaker 1>put Cuba back on the state sponsor of Terrorism list.

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<v Speaker 2>Jim Wisz covers Cuba and the Caribbean for Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 1>And so that really kind of set the stage for

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<v Speaker 1>everything kind of.

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<v Speaker 2>Going forward and just over a year into Trump's second term,

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<v Speaker 2>his administration's hard line stance and its rhetoric has only

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<v Speaker 2>picked up after the US captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Madoro

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<v Speaker 2>Rubio sent a warning to Cuba in a press conference.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, look I have I lived in Havana and I

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<v Speaker 3>was in the government, I'd be concerned at least a

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<v Speaker 3>little bit.

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<v Speaker 2>Then the US imposed an oil blockade of the island,

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<v Speaker 2>which has crippled its economy and energy sectors. Though since

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<v Speaker 2>the US ousted Venezuelan leader Nicholas Maduro in January, Cuba's

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<v Speaker 2>main supplier of oil has been choked off, triggering weeks

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<v Speaker 2>of blackouts.

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<v Speaker 3>Some nights the entire island goes dark in its.

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<v Speaker 2>And just last week Trump started talking about taking Cuba Cube,

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<v Speaker 2>taking them in some form. The US's approach to Cuba,

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<v Speaker 2>especially over the past year, has had significant impacts for

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<v Speaker 2>people on the ground.

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<v Speaker 1>The United Nations has basically said that the government can

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<v Speaker 1>no longer deliver food and aid kind of the most

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<v Speaker 1>vulnerable parts of the population simply because they don't have

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<v Speaker 1>enough gasoline to put in the cars.

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<v Speaker 2>So it's dire and it's all building. Jim and Eric

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<v Speaker 2>say to an inflection point, one that could alter the

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<v Speaker 2>course of Cuba's history and the legacy of the Trump

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<v Speaker 2>administration forever.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's a huge moment. I mean, arguably everything's

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<v Speaker 1>at stake right now for the government. They've been in

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<v Speaker 1>power sixty seven years and it's looking really unclear if

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<v Speaker 1>this one party system is going to survive the year.

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<v Speaker 3>Quite frankly, we've seen a dozen presidents come and go

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<v Speaker 3>unable to change the government in Cuba. So if the

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<v Speaker 3>Trump administration and Secretary of State Mark or Rubio are

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<v Speaker 3>able to bring about that change, it would be a

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<v Speaker 3>huge legacy issue for them and the historic change that

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<v Speaker 3>they would be implementing and catalyzing in Cuba.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the big take from

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg News today on the show, Cuba at a turning point,

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<v Speaker 2>Why the US has been ramping up pressure on the nation,

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<v Speaker 2>and what could come next. When the US carried out

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<v Speaker 2>a military operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolas Madoro

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<v Speaker 2>in January, it was a pivotal moment for another country too, Cuba.

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<v Speaker 2>The relationship between Venezuela and Cuba is a key piece

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<v Speaker 2>of context for understanding what's happening today. Here's Bloomberg's gym WISZ.

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<v Speaker 1>So you know, when Ugo Chaws took power in Venezuela,

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<v Speaker 1>he immediately, very soon after taking power, saw Infidale kind

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<v Speaker 1>of a mentor and kind of a godfather, and of

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<v Speaker 1>course the the two of them became kind of the

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<v Speaker 1>leaders of what was known as twenty first century socialism

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<v Speaker 1>in Latin America. At the root of that relationship was

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<v Speaker 1>Venezuela's support for Cuba. Cuba was coming out of but

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<v Speaker 1>they was known as this special period after the fall

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<v Speaker 1>of the Soviet Union and they lost their Soviet backing,

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<v Speaker 1>they went through a true economic crisis, and Venezuela stepped

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<v Speaker 1>in as kind of savior. And so this relationship developed

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<v Speaker 1>where Venezuela was sending one hundreds of thousands of barrels

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<v Speaker 1>of oil a day to Cuba and Cuba was paying

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<v Speaker 1>for it by sending teachers, security personnel, engineers, and people

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<v Speaker 1>of that sort. And so there was this barter system

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<v Speaker 1>in place that worked very well for both sides until

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<v Speaker 1>it didn't. And even as the Venezuelan economy started to fail,

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<v Speaker 1>they still continued to support Cuba, and so Cuba at

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<v Speaker 1>the end of the day, it was kind of very,

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<v Speaker 1>very overly dependent on their Venezuelan patrons, and when Trump

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<v Speaker 1>essentially cut that off cold on January third, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the effects have been very, very evident.

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<v Speaker 3>Protesting the latest power cut on the streets of Havana

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<v Speaker 3>after Cuba's entire electricity grid collapse last night. I think

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<v Speaker 3>the power cut comes as campaign is delivering humanitarian aid

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<v Speaker 3>have started arriving in the country as part of efforts

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<v Speaker 3>to mitigate the effects of Washington's blockade. In a nation

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<v Speaker 3>used to hardship, Cubans say the situation has never been worse.

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<v Speaker 1>The President of Cuba, Mi Disca, has basically said they

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<v Speaker 1>haven't had a major oil delivery in over three months, basically,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, essentially since the US incursion into Venezuela, and

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<v Speaker 1>the US has basically threatened anybody who comes to Cuba's

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<v Speaker 1>energy aid that's particularly Mexico, with punitive sanctions if they

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<v Speaker 1>do deliver fuel. Right now, as we're speaking, there is

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<v Speaker 1>a Russian oil tanker on its way to Cuba, but

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<v Speaker 1>there's no telling whether or not it's actually going to

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<v Speaker 1>make it or not. One previously diverted at the last

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<v Speaker 1>minute and ended up going to Trinidad, so they're not

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<v Speaker 1>getting major oil shipments. Now the private sector is being

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<v Speaker 1>allowed in theory to bring in some supplies to cover

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<v Speaker 1>its own needs, but those are minuscule and do not

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<v Speaker 1>really address the issue at hand.

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<v Speaker 2>And what have those three months effectively without oil at

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<v Speaker 2>all meant for conditions on the island.

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<v Speaker 1>Conditions were hard to begin with, and now they're frankly

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<v Speaker 1>quite terrible. There's been lots of reports, many of them unconfirmed,

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<v Speaker 1>about people dying in hospitals as ventilators are getting cut off.

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<v Speaker 1>That's part and due to the power outages, which were

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<v Speaker 1>endemic before the fuel crunch, but they've only gotten worse

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<v Speaker 1>since then. Industries grinding to a halt, and resorts, which

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<v Speaker 1>are one of the big main money earners for Cuba,

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<v Speaker 1>have had to shut down because there's not enough fuel.

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<v Speaker 1>It's rippling all the way through society, and hunger is real.

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<v Speaker 1>The United Nations has basically said that the government can

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<v Speaker 1>no longer deliver food and aid kind of the most

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<v Speaker 1>vulnerable parts of the population simply because they don't have

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<v Speaker 1>enough gasoline to put in the cars. So it's dire.

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<v Speaker 2>And what has that dire situation that's already been a

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<v Speaker 2>struggle for many people in Cuba. How has that changed

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<v Speaker 2>the political situation on the ground and people's attitudes towards

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<v Speaker 2>their government.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, you know, outright demonstrations protests are essentially banned in Cuba,

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<v Speaker 1>and yet there is are more sounds, more rumblings of discontent.

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<v Speaker 1>Over these last couple of weeks, there have been some

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<v Speaker 1>very kind of high profile protests, including one in a

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<v Speaker 1>little town called Moron, where basically people got together and

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<v Speaker 1>attacked the seat of the Communist party in this town.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's a lot of dissatisfaction on this street, some

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<v Speaker 1>of it aimed at Washington, some of it aimed at

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<v Speaker 1>the local authorities. I think there's a lot of blame

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<v Speaker 1>to go around right now, But for the government itself,

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<v Speaker 1>at least publicly, it's sticking to its ground.

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<v Speaker 2>I asked Bloomberg's Eric Martin, who covers the State Department

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<v Speaker 2>and Foreign Policy for Bloomberg, about why the US has

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<v Speaker 2>been putting this pressure on Cuba and its economy, what

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<v Speaker 2>its goals are.

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<v Speaker 3>Cuba has had patron states throughout the last seventy years.

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<v Speaker 3>The US is really looking to follow in those footsteps

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<v Speaker 3>in terms of a superpower that exerts great influence and

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<v Speaker 3>control over the island. This is an administration that has

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<v Speaker 3>articulated a national security strategy and actual document released in

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<v Speaker 3>December that is very focused on asserting US pre eminence

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<v Speaker 3>and dominance in the Western hemisphere. We've seen China, in particular,

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<v Speaker 3>trying to establish a foothold and a presence in Cuba

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<v Speaker 3>in recent years. We've seen this patron relationship that Venezuela

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<v Speaker 3>had with Cuba for several decades, even going back to

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<v Speaker 3>the relationship of the Soviet Union in Cuba in the

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<v Speaker 3>nineteen sixties. And so this has been a national security

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<v Speaker 3>threat across different American presidencies. But it's also a priority

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<v Speaker 3>for the Republican Party and for voters, particularly Cuban exiles

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<v Speaker 3>in Florida. And this is administration that we see a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of influence from Florida, and so there's a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of constituents here that would like to see a change

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<v Speaker 3>in an opening and a more democratic, more US friendly Cuba.

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<v Speaker 2>I am wondering, Jim, what role do Cuban Americans and

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<v Speaker 2>Cuban expats play in all this? How are they reacting

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<v Speaker 2>to the situation on the island.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, that is really interesting. I think the diaspora has

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<v Speaker 1>been waiting for this moment for you know, sixty years,

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<v Speaker 1>and they are interested in investing. They are interested in

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<v Speaker 1>seeing changes in Cuba. You know, the Cuban government kind

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<v Speaker 1>of in theory, is trying to open the doors to

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<v Speaker 1>the just in recent weeks they have announced legislation that

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<v Speaker 1>would allow Cuban exiles to invest in companies and own

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<v Speaker 1>companies in Cuba and kind of participate in the economy.

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<v Speaker 1>But there's still so many hurdles, both on the US

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<v Speaker 1>side and on the Cuban side for that to actually happen.

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<v Speaker 1>We shouldn't hold our breads and wait for the wave

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<v Speaker 1>of Cuban investors coming from Miami.

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<v Speaker 2>You mentioned, you know, one of the ways that the

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<v Speaker 2>Cuban government has been responding. But what steps have they taken,

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<v Speaker 2>what signals have they sent over the last three months

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<v Speaker 2>as the US has ratcheted up this pressure.

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<v Speaker 1>No, it's interesting. I think one thing they've been doing

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<v Speaker 1>is kind of acknowledging it present. Migueta the escone has

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<v Speaker 1>gone on national television a couple of times now, and

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<v Speaker 1>you know, and basically said, yes, we're hurting these US

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<v Speaker 1>measures are affecting us, and they keep describing as a

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<v Speaker 1>kin to collective punishment. Everybody on the island is going

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<v Speaker 1>to suffer because of these US policies, and so on side,

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<v Speaker 1>I think they are kind of acknowledging their vulnerabilities and

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<v Speaker 1>their pain in a way that maybe they haven't in

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<v Speaker 1>quite some time, you know, acknowledging that the US is

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<v Speaker 1>hurting them. And on the other side, again, for the

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<v Speaker 1>lack of a better phrase, I think it's just defiance.

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<v Speaker 1>They keep saying that, yes, we're willing to work around

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<v Speaker 1>the margins, we're willing to let Cuban exiles invest, but

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<v Speaker 1>we're not willing to discuss who leads our country.

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<v Speaker 2>So without an obvious exit ramp, where could this all

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<v Speaker 2>be heading? What paths is the Trump administration angling for?

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<v Speaker 2>That's next. I want to walk through some of the

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<v Speaker 2>possible paths US Cuba relations could take from here. Starting

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<v Speaker 2>with diplomacy. Both the Trump administration and Cuban officials have

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<v Speaker 2>confirmed their in talks. So Eric, what do we know

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<v Speaker 2>about who exactly is at the table on what each

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<v Speaker 2>side is looking to achieve with these talks.

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<v Speaker 3>So we reported last month that the US is looking

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<v Speaker 3>to replace Cuban President Miguel Dias Canel, that he is

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<v Speaker 3>somebody who they see as having failed in terms of

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<v Speaker 3>his economic management and his leadership in Cuba. We know

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<v Speaker 3>that Raoul Castro, the former president and the brother of

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<v Speaker 3>Fidel Castro, his grandson, whose name is also Raoul, is

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<v Speaker 3>called Raulito or is sometimes his nickname is El Cancre,

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<v Speaker 3>the Crab, has been having discussions with the Trump administration

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<v Speaker 3>via Secretary of State Rubio. That's one name that we've

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<v Speaker 3>seen out there as somebody who is more open, who

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<v Speaker 3>is more of a global business mind, is more open

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<v Speaker 3>to making a deal, is less ideological. We saw an

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<v Speaker 3>important signaling mechanism where in a recent speech by Miguel

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<v Speaker 3>dias Canal, the president, Raul Castro's grandson, he was in

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<v Speaker 3>the room for that speech, which was very unusual, and

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<v Speaker 3>so the Cuban authorities have acknowledged that these talks are

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<v Speaker 3>going on. The US is looking to use economic pressure,

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<v Speaker 3>particularly by cutting off energy sales to the government, but

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<v Speaker 3>permitting energy sales to the small but fast growing small

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<v Speaker 3>and medium sized enterprise and businesses in Cuba to foster

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<v Speaker 3>this private sector, which they then see as leading to

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<v Speaker 3>a political opening in Cuba. So it's kind of the

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<v Speaker 3>same in some ways, similar to comparable to the process

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<v Speaker 3>that we saw the attempts in Russia in the nineteen

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<v Speaker 3>eighties to have in economic and political opening. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I want to talk about that potential opening because

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<v Speaker 2>last week, on March sixteenth, the Cuban envoyd to the

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<v Speaker 2>US of the country is moving to allow more investment

0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:53.480
<v Speaker 2>from Cubans living abroad. How big of a change is

0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:56.679
<v Speaker 2>that and how did the Trump administration respond to that news.

0:13:56.760 --> 0:13:59.680
<v Speaker 2>Is that the kind of deal that they're looking for here?

0:14:00.000 --> 0:14:02.600
<v Speaker 3>The Secretary of Rubio has responded to that by saying

0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:05.760
<v Speaker 3>it's not dramatic enough in terms of the kind of

0:14:05.840 --> 0:14:08.719
<v Speaker 3>moves that the administration needs to see. And there's a

0:14:08.760 --> 0:14:12.640
<v Speaker 3>lot of skepticism in the exile community about putting money

0:14:12.800 --> 0:14:17.040
<v Speaker 3>into Cuba, investing money in Cuba with a government with

0:14:17.120 --> 0:14:20.920
<v Speaker 3>the history of expropriation. Many of the people in the

0:14:20.960 --> 0:14:26.440
<v Speaker 3>exile community in Florida are either from families that have

0:14:26.960 --> 0:14:31.840
<v Speaker 3>themselves and living memory had assets expropriated, or they can

0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:35.000
<v Speaker 3>remember from their parents and grandparents what that experience was like.

0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:39.520
<v Speaker 3>So there's a lot of skepticism to this offering by

0:14:39.560 --> 0:14:43.680
<v Speaker 3>the Cuban government in terms of opening to outside investment.

0:14:43.800 --> 0:14:46.240
<v Speaker 3>Just a feeling like this is not nearly enough for

0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:49.560
<v Speaker 3>what people need to see in terms of in terms

0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:53.560
<v Speaker 3>of an opening and in terms of a democratization and Eric.

0:14:53.600 --> 0:14:55.760
<v Speaker 2>In the lead up to these talks, and even as

0:14:55.760 --> 0:14:58.280
<v Speaker 2>these talks are ongoing, members of the Trump administration have

0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:01.120
<v Speaker 2>also implied that they could take a tough for approach

0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:04.160
<v Speaker 2>in Cuba. Right after the US captured President Maduro in

0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:08.680
<v Speaker 2>Venezuela in January, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters, quote,

0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:11.040
<v Speaker 2>if I lived in Havana and I was in the government,

0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:14.440
<v Speaker 2>I'd be concerned. And earlier this month, Senator Lindsay Graham

0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:17.280
<v Speaker 2>told Fox News that quote, Iran is going down and

0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:21.280
<v Speaker 2>Cuba is next. So Eric, what do we know about

0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:26.040
<v Speaker 2>whether the US is considering a military option in Cuba.

0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:29.760
<v Speaker 3>Well, we haven't yet seen a reporting of military preparations

0:15:29.800 --> 0:15:33.440
<v Speaker 3>to invade Cuba or strike Cuba. But the rhetoric that

0:15:33.440 --> 0:15:38.240
<v Speaker 3>we've seen from President Trump has been speaking about. Shortly

0:15:38.280 --> 0:15:41.000
<v Speaker 3>after our story, he came out and talked about the

0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:45.120
<v Speaker 3>idea of a potentially friendly takeover of Cuba. He's more

0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:48.640
<v Speaker 3>recently entertained the idea that could be a friendly takeover

0:15:48.880 --> 0:15:51.920
<v Speaker 3>or not so friendly, and so he's teased this idea

0:15:52.080 --> 0:15:56.160
<v Speaker 3>of using force in Cuba. Already, the threat of force

0:15:56.200 --> 0:16:00.520
<v Speaker 3>and interdiction has stopped, for instance, Mexico, which was the

0:16:00.560 --> 0:16:05.560
<v Speaker 3>main supplier of oil to Cuba after Venezuela, from sending

0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:08.240
<v Speaker 3>oil to Cuba, and so we've already seen the threat

0:16:08.240 --> 0:16:09.840
<v Speaker 3>of force at work here.

0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:12.280
<v Speaker 2>Eric, we've talked about sort of three ways that the

0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:17.200
<v Speaker 2>Trump administration is pursuing putting pressure on Cuba. The first

0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:21.680
<v Speaker 2>is continued talks, diplomacy, deal making, the second would be

0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:25.320
<v Speaker 2>military intervention, and the third would be using financial pressure

0:16:25.360 --> 0:16:28.000
<v Speaker 2>to make Cuba dependent on the US. Do we know

0:16:28.080 --> 0:16:31.240
<v Speaker 2>about which option the Trump administration prefers or which option

0:16:31.280 --> 0:16:33.000
<v Speaker 2>would be most likely.

0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:36.480
<v Speaker 3>Well, one thing we've seen from President Trump's comments is

0:16:37.080 --> 0:16:40.880
<v Speaker 3>that his expectation and his view is that Cuba wants

0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:44.160
<v Speaker 3>to make a deal. But he's also talked about Cuba

0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:46.920
<v Speaker 3>being dealt with. He's repeatedly said Cuba would be dealt

0:16:46.960 --> 0:16:50.400
<v Speaker 3>with after Iran. So I think one important signal will

0:16:50.520 --> 0:16:54.320
<v Speaker 3>be watching what happens with the current war in Iran.

0:16:55.040 --> 0:17:00.200
<v Speaker 3>If there is a de escalation or a negotiation to

0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:03.600
<v Speaker 3>reopen the Strait of Ormuz to de escalate the conflict

0:17:03.640 --> 0:17:06.040
<v Speaker 3>in Iran. And so attention I think is likely to

0:17:06.119 --> 0:17:09.760
<v Speaker 3>turn more to Cuba if there is a resolution or

0:17:09.920 --> 0:17:12.960
<v Speaker 3>an easing of the conflict and the war in Iran.

0:17:14.119 --> 0:17:15.760
<v Speaker 2>And Jim, I want to turn back to you here.

0:17:16.240 --> 0:17:19.440
<v Speaker 2>The US has opposed the communist government in Cuba for decades,

0:17:19.480 --> 0:17:24.480
<v Speaker 2>since the nineteen sixties. How significant would any of these outcomes,

0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:29.480
<v Speaker 2>a diplomatic resolution, a military intervention, and economic takeover be

0:17:30.000 --> 0:17:33.920
<v Speaker 2>in the sweep of Cuban history And what message would

0:17:33.920 --> 0:17:36.480
<v Speaker 2>they send to the rest of Latin America.

0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:39.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean, this would be incredibly significant. I mean, as

0:17:39.320 --> 0:17:43.480
<v Speaker 1>you've mentioned, ever since Kennedy, successive US presidents have been

0:17:43.560 --> 0:17:47.800
<v Speaker 1>trying to either force a change, negotiate a change, finesse

0:17:47.840 --> 0:17:50.679
<v Speaker 1>a change and the island and it's never happened. The

0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:54.320
<v Speaker 1>government has always rallied, the government has always been able

0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:57.600
<v Speaker 1>to protect itself. It's an incredible story of kind of

0:17:57.840 --> 0:18:02.119
<v Speaker 1>political survival in Cuba. And so if they ended that

0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:05.639
<v Speaker 1>sixty seven year run of single party rule, if Trump

0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:08.240
<v Speaker 1>was the one to do it, that'd be incredibly significant.

0:18:08.720 --> 0:18:11.960
<v Speaker 1>There is this really romantic notion about Cuba in the

0:18:12.000 --> 0:18:16.040
<v Speaker 1>Latin American left. I suspect that a Cuba that actually fell,

0:18:16.160 --> 0:18:19.720
<v Speaker 1>that succumbed to Washington would only increase kind of the

0:18:19.760 --> 0:18:23.119
<v Speaker 1>nostalgia of what Cuba once was. I think we'll be

0:18:23.200 --> 0:18:27.400
<v Speaker 1>dealing with the consequences of whatever happens in Cuba, one

0:18:27.400 --> 0:18:30.080
<v Speaker 1>way or another for decades to come in Latin America.

0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:37.119
<v Speaker 2>This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder.

0:18:37.520 --> 0:18:40.120
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0:18:54.040 --> 0:18:56.159
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.