1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:11,799 Speaker 2: Lately, President Donald Trump has been talking more and more 3 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:14,360 Speaker 2: about Cuba. You know, all my life, I've been hearing 4 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:16,120 Speaker 2: about the United States in Cuba. 5 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: When will the United States do it? 6 00:00:19,520 --> 00:00:22,120 Speaker 3: I do believe I'll be the honor of having the 7 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:22,960 Speaker 3: honor of. 8 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:25,560 Speaker 1: Taking Cuba. 9 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 2: Bloomberg State Department and Foreign Policy reporter Eric Martin says 10 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:33,239 Speaker 2: Trump's interest in the island nation has been building in 11 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 2: his second term. One of the first signs was his 12 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:37,880 Speaker 2: pick for Secretary of State. 13 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 3: The naming of Marco Rubio, Senator from Florida, the son 14 00:00:43,600 --> 00:00:47,279 Speaker 3: of Cuban immigrants to the US, having grown up in 15 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 3: this Miami exile community, and that being his political base 16 00:00:51,760 --> 00:00:54,960 Speaker 3: as the nominee for Secretary of State, was a strong 17 00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:58,279 Speaker 3: signal that the communist governments in the Western Hemisphere were 18 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:00,800 Speaker 3: going to be a big focus of its tension for 19 00:01:00,960 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 3: the administration. 20 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 1: Right out of the gate under the Utrup administration, they 21 00:01:04,560 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 1: put Cuba back on the state sponsor of Terrorism list. 22 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:11,480 Speaker 2: Jim Wisz covers Cuba and the Caribbean for Bloomberg. 23 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:13,399 Speaker 1: And so that really kind of set the stage for 24 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:14,479 Speaker 1: everything kind of. 25 00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 2: Going forward and just over a year into Trump's second term, 26 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 2: his administration's hard line stance and its rhetoric has only 27 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:26,480 Speaker 2: picked up after the US captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Madoro 28 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 2: Rubio sent a warning to Cuba in a press conference. 29 00:01:30,040 --> 00:01:31,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, look I have I lived in Havana and I 30 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:33,360 Speaker 3: was in the government, I'd be concerned at least a 31 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 3: little bit. 32 00:01:34,160 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 2: Then the US imposed an oil blockade of the island, 33 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 2: which has crippled its economy and energy sectors. Though since 34 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 2: the US ousted Venezuelan leader Nicholas Maduro in January, Cuba's 35 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 2: main supplier of oil has been choked off, triggering weeks 36 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:49,200 Speaker 2: of blackouts. 37 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 3: Some nights the entire island goes dark in its. 38 00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 2: And just last week Trump started talking about taking Cuba Cube, 39 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 2: taking them in some form. The US's approach to Cuba, 40 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 2: especially over the past year, has had significant impacts for 41 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 2: people on the ground. 42 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:12,880 Speaker 1: The United Nations has basically said that the government can 43 00:02:12,919 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: no longer deliver food and aid kind of the most 44 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:19,000 Speaker 1: vulnerable parts of the population simply because they don't have 45 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:20,560 Speaker 1: enough gasoline to put in the cars. 46 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 2: So it's dire and it's all building. Jim and Eric 47 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:27,280 Speaker 2: say to an inflection point, one that could alter the 48 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:30,040 Speaker 2: course of Cuba's history and the legacy of the Trump 49 00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 2: administration forever. 50 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 1: I mean, it's a huge moment. I mean, arguably everything's 51 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:37,600 Speaker 1: at stake right now for the government. They've been in 52 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 1: power sixty seven years and it's looking really unclear if 53 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:45,520 Speaker 1: this one party system is going to survive the year. 54 00:02:45,600 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 3: Quite frankly, we've seen a dozen presidents come and go 55 00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:52,720 Speaker 3: unable to change the government in Cuba. So if the 56 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:56,120 Speaker 3: Trump administration and Secretary of State Mark or Rubio are 57 00:02:56,160 --> 00:02:58,680 Speaker 3: able to bring about that change, it would be a 58 00:02:58,800 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 3: huge legacy issue for them and the historic change that 59 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 3: they would be implementing and catalyzing in Cuba. 60 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:12,920 Speaker 2: I'm Sarah Holder, and this is the big take from 61 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 2: Bloomberg News today on the show, Cuba at a turning point, 62 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:20,080 Speaker 2: Why the US has been ramping up pressure on the nation, 63 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:28,680 Speaker 2: and what could come next. When the US carried out 64 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 2: a military operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolas Madoro 65 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 2: in January, it was a pivotal moment for another country too, Cuba. 66 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:41,960 Speaker 2: The relationship between Venezuela and Cuba is a key piece 67 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:46,640 Speaker 2: of context for understanding what's happening today. Here's Bloomberg's gym WISZ. 68 00:03:47,320 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 1: So you know, when Ugo Chaws took power in Venezuela, 69 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: he immediately, very soon after taking power, saw Infidale kind 70 00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:59,600 Speaker 1: of a mentor and kind of a godfather, and of 71 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: course the the two of them became kind of the 72 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: leaders of what was known as twenty first century socialism 73 00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:09,160 Speaker 1: in Latin America. At the root of that relationship was 74 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 1: Venezuela's support for Cuba. Cuba was coming out of but 75 00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: they was known as this special period after the fall 76 00:04:14,360 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 1: of the Soviet Union and they lost their Soviet backing, 77 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 1: they went through a true economic crisis, and Venezuela stepped 78 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 1: in as kind of savior. And so this relationship developed 79 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 1: where Venezuela was sending one hundreds of thousands of barrels 80 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:33,599 Speaker 1: of oil a day to Cuba and Cuba was paying 81 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 1: for it by sending teachers, security personnel, engineers, and people 82 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:40,200 Speaker 1: of that sort. And so there was this barter system 83 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:44,520 Speaker 1: in place that worked very well for both sides until 84 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:49,640 Speaker 1: it didn't. And even as the Venezuelan economy started to fail, 85 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 1: they still continued to support Cuba, and so Cuba at 86 00:04:53,560 --> 00:04:55,200 Speaker 1: the end of the day, it was kind of very, 87 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 1: very overly dependent on their Venezuelan patrons, and when Trump 88 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: essentially cut that off cold on January third, you know, 89 00:05:05,080 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 1: the effects have been very, very evident. 90 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 3: Protesting the latest power cut on the streets of Havana 91 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:13,840 Speaker 3: after Cuba's entire electricity grid collapse last night. I think 92 00:05:13,920 --> 00:05:17,360 Speaker 3: the power cut comes as campaign is delivering humanitarian aid 93 00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:20,799 Speaker 3: have started arriving in the country as part of efforts 94 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 3: to mitigate the effects of Washington's blockade. In a nation 95 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:28,360 Speaker 3: used to hardship, Cubans say the situation has never been worse. 96 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 1: The President of Cuba, Mi Disca, has basically said they 97 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:35,919 Speaker 1: haven't had a major oil delivery in over three months, basically, 98 00:05:36,000 --> 00:05:41,039 Speaker 1: you know, essentially since the US incursion into Venezuela, and 99 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:45,560 Speaker 1: the US has basically threatened anybody who comes to Cuba's 100 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 1: energy aid that's particularly Mexico, with punitive sanctions if they 101 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:55,280 Speaker 1: do deliver fuel. Right now, as we're speaking, there is 102 00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:57,960 Speaker 1: a Russian oil tanker on its way to Cuba, but 103 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:00,280 Speaker 1: there's no telling whether or not it's actually going to 104 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:03,480 Speaker 1: make it or not. One previously diverted at the last 105 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,880 Speaker 1: minute and ended up going to Trinidad, so they're not 106 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:11,840 Speaker 1: getting major oil shipments. Now the private sector is being 107 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:15,039 Speaker 1: allowed in theory to bring in some supplies to cover 108 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:19,040 Speaker 1: its own needs, but those are minuscule and do not 109 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:20,520 Speaker 1: really address the issue at hand. 110 00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:23,839 Speaker 2: And what have those three months effectively without oil at 111 00:06:23,880 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 2: all meant for conditions on the island. 112 00:06:27,320 --> 00:06:30,279 Speaker 1: Conditions were hard to begin with, and now they're frankly 113 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:33,600 Speaker 1: quite terrible. There's been lots of reports, many of them unconfirmed, 114 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:37,839 Speaker 1: about people dying in hospitals as ventilators are getting cut off. 115 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:40,840 Speaker 1: That's part and due to the power outages, which were 116 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:44,600 Speaker 1: endemic before the fuel crunch, but they've only gotten worse 117 00:06:44,680 --> 00:06:48,680 Speaker 1: since then. Industries grinding to a halt, and resorts, which 118 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:51,479 Speaker 1: are one of the big main money earners for Cuba, 119 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 1: have had to shut down because there's not enough fuel. 120 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 1: It's rippling all the way through society, and hunger is real. 121 00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:00,800 Speaker 1: The United Nations has basically said that the government can 122 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 1: no longer deliver food and aid kind of the most 123 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 1: vulnerable parts of the population simply because they don't have 124 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:09,360 Speaker 1: enough gasoline to put in the cars. So it's dire. 125 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 2: And what has that dire situation that's already been a 126 00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 2: struggle for many people in Cuba. How has that changed 127 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 2: the political situation on the ground and people's attitudes towards 128 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:24,800 Speaker 2: their government. 129 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 1: Well, you know, outright demonstrations protests are essentially banned in Cuba, 130 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 1: and yet there is are more sounds, more rumblings of discontent. 131 00:07:34,360 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 1: Over these last couple of weeks, there have been some 132 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:39,960 Speaker 1: very kind of high profile protests, including one in a 133 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:42,360 Speaker 1: little town called Moron, where basically people got together and 134 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:45,520 Speaker 1: attacked the seat of the Communist party in this town. 135 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:48,840 Speaker 1: So there's a lot of dissatisfaction on this street, some 136 00:07:48,920 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 1: of it aimed at Washington, some of it aimed at 137 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 1: the local authorities. I think there's a lot of blame 138 00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 1: to go around right now, But for the government itself, 139 00:07:57,080 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 1: at least publicly, it's sticking to its ground. 140 00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 2: I asked Bloomberg's Eric Martin, who covers the State Department 141 00:08:03,960 --> 00:08:07,240 Speaker 2: and Foreign Policy for Bloomberg, about why the US has 142 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 2: been putting this pressure on Cuba and its economy, what 143 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 2: its goals are. 144 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:16,560 Speaker 3: Cuba has had patron states throughout the last seventy years. 145 00:08:17,200 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 3: The US is really looking to follow in those footsteps 146 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 3: in terms of a superpower that exerts great influence and 147 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 3: control over the island. This is an administration that has 148 00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:34,240 Speaker 3: articulated a national security strategy and actual document released in 149 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 3: December that is very focused on asserting US pre eminence 150 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 3: and dominance in the Western hemisphere. We've seen China, in particular, 151 00:08:45,600 --> 00:08:50,320 Speaker 3: trying to establish a foothold and a presence in Cuba 152 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 3: in recent years. We've seen this patron relationship that Venezuela 153 00:08:55,200 --> 00:08:58,679 Speaker 3: had with Cuba for several decades, even going back to 154 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:01,679 Speaker 3: the relationship of the Soviet Union in Cuba in the 155 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:05,960 Speaker 3: nineteen sixties. And so this has been a national security 156 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:11,560 Speaker 3: threat across different American presidencies. But it's also a priority 157 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:17,120 Speaker 3: for the Republican Party and for voters, particularly Cuban exiles 158 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:20,400 Speaker 3: in Florida. And this is administration that we see a 159 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 3: lot of influence from Florida, and so there's a lot 160 00:09:23,559 --> 00:09:26,440 Speaker 3: of constituents here that would like to see a change 161 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 3: in an opening and a more democratic, more US friendly Cuba. 162 00:09:31,080 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 2: I am wondering, Jim, what role do Cuban Americans and 163 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 2: Cuban expats play in all this? How are they reacting 164 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 2: to the situation on the island. 165 00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:43,720 Speaker 1: Well, that is really interesting. I think the diaspora has 166 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 1: been waiting for this moment for you know, sixty years, 167 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 1: and they are interested in investing. They are interested in 168 00:09:52,120 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 1: seeing changes in Cuba. You know, the Cuban government kind 169 00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:00,520 Speaker 1: of in theory, is trying to open the doors to 170 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:03,800 Speaker 1: the just in recent weeks they have announced legislation that 171 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:08,080 Speaker 1: would allow Cuban exiles to invest in companies and own 172 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 1: companies in Cuba and kind of participate in the economy. 173 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:15,600 Speaker 1: But there's still so many hurdles, both on the US 174 00:10:15,640 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 1: side and on the Cuban side for that to actually happen. 175 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:20,720 Speaker 1: We shouldn't hold our breads and wait for the wave 176 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: of Cuban investors coming from Miami. 177 00:10:23,880 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 2: You mentioned, you know, one of the ways that the 178 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:29,080 Speaker 2: Cuban government has been responding. But what steps have they taken, 179 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 2: what signals have they sent over the last three months 180 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 2: as the US has ratcheted up this pressure. 181 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 1: No, it's interesting. I think one thing they've been doing 182 00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:41,800 Speaker 1: is kind of acknowledging it present. Migueta the escone has 183 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:45,680 Speaker 1: gone on national television a couple of times now, and 184 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 1: you know, and basically said, yes, we're hurting these US 185 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 1: measures are affecting us, and they keep describing as a 186 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 1: kin to collective punishment. Everybody on the island is going 187 00:10:56,160 --> 00:11:00,440 Speaker 1: to suffer because of these US policies, and so on side, 188 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 1: I think they are kind of acknowledging their vulnerabilities and 189 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:06,720 Speaker 1: their pain in a way that maybe they haven't in 190 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 1: quite some time, you know, acknowledging that the US is 191 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:13,959 Speaker 1: hurting them. And on the other side, again, for the 192 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 1: lack of a better phrase, I think it's just defiance. 193 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 1: They keep saying that, yes, we're willing to work around 194 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 1: the margins, we're willing to let Cuban exiles invest, but 195 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 1: we're not willing to discuss who leads our country. 196 00:11:29,679 --> 00:11:33,000 Speaker 2: So without an obvious exit ramp, where could this all 197 00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 2: be heading? What paths is the Trump administration angling for? 198 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:48,120 Speaker 2: That's next. I want to walk through some of the 199 00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 2: possible paths US Cuba relations could take from here. Starting 200 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 2: with diplomacy. Both the Trump administration and Cuban officials have 201 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,320 Speaker 2: confirmed their in talks. So Eric, what do we know 202 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 2: about who exactly is at the table on what each 203 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 2: side is looking to achieve with these talks. 204 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 3: So we reported last month that the US is looking 205 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 3: to replace Cuban President Miguel Dias Canel, that he is 206 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 3: somebody who they see as having failed in terms of 207 00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:20,440 Speaker 3: his economic management and his leadership in Cuba. We know 208 00:12:20,559 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 3: that Raoul Castro, the former president and the brother of 209 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:29,120 Speaker 3: Fidel Castro, his grandson, whose name is also Raoul, is 210 00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:32,960 Speaker 3: called Raulito or is sometimes his nickname is El Cancre, 211 00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:38,439 Speaker 3: the Crab, has been having discussions with the Trump administration 212 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 3: via Secretary of State Rubio. That's one name that we've 213 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 3: seen out there as somebody who is more open, who 214 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:49,160 Speaker 3: is more of a global business mind, is more open 215 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 3: to making a deal, is less ideological. We saw an 216 00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:57,120 Speaker 3: important signaling mechanism where in a recent speech by Miguel 217 00:12:57,160 --> 00:13:00,839 Speaker 3: dias Canal, the president, Raul Castro's grandson, he was in 218 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 3: the room for that speech, which was very unusual, and 219 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:06,960 Speaker 3: so the Cuban authorities have acknowledged that these talks are 220 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 3: going on. The US is looking to use economic pressure, 221 00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:15,320 Speaker 3: particularly by cutting off energy sales to the government, but 222 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 3: permitting energy sales to the small but fast growing small 223 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:25,400 Speaker 3: and medium sized enterprise and businesses in Cuba to foster 224 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:28,840 Speaker 3: this private sector, which they then see as leading to 225 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 3: a political opening in Cuba. So it's kind of the 226 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 3: same in some ways, similar to comparable to the process 227 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:39,240 Speaker 3: that we saw the attempts in Russia in the nineteen 228 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:42,040 Speaker 3: eighties to have in economic and political opening. Yeah. 229 00:13:42,080 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 2: Well, I want to talk about that potential opening because 230 00:13:44,600 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 2: last week, on March sixteenth, the Cuban envoyd to the 231 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:49,960 Speaker 2: US of the country is moving to allow more investment 232 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 2: from Cubans living abroad. How big of a change is 233 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:56,679 Speaker 2: that and how did the Trump administration respond to that news. 234 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,680 Speaker 2: Is that the kind of deal that they're looking for here? 235 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 3: The Secretary of Rubio has responded to that by saying 236 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 3: it's not dramatic enough in terms of the kind of 237 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:08,719 Speaker 3: moves that the administration needs to see. And there's a 238 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:12,640 Speaker 3: lot of skepticism in the exile community about putting money 239 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 3: into Cuba, investing money in Cuba with a government with 240 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:20,920 Speaker 3: the history of expropriation. Many of the people in the 241 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 3: exile community in Florida are either from families that have 242 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:31,840 Speaker 3: themselves and living memory had assets expropriated, or they can 243 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 3: remember from their parents and grandparents what that experience was like. 244 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:39,520 Speaker 3: So there's a lot of skepticism to this offering by 245 00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 3: the Cuban government in terms of opening to outside investment. 246 00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 3: Just a feeling like this is not nearly enough for 247 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:49,560 Speaker 3: what people need to see in terms of in terms 248 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 3: of an opening and in terms of a democratization and Eric. 249 00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:55,760 Speaker 2: In the lead up to these talks, and even as 250 00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 2: these talks are ongoing, members of the Trump administration have 251 00:14:58,360 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 2: also implied that they could take a tough for approach 252 00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 2: in Cuba. Right after the US captured President Maduro in 253 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 2: Venezuela in January, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters, quote, 254 00:15:08,760 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 2: if I lived in Havana and I was in the government, 255 00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 2: I'd be concerned. And earlier this month, Senator Lindsay Graham 256 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 2: told Fox News that quote, Iran is going down and 257 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:21,280 Speaker 2: Cuba is next. So Eric, what do we know about 258 00:15:21,360 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 2: whether the US is considering a military option in Cuba. 259 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:29,760 Speaker 3: Well, we haven't yet seen a reporting of military preparations 260 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 3: to invade Cuba or strike Cuba. But the rhetoric that 261 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:38,240 Speaker 3: we've seen from President Trump has been speaking about. Shortly 262 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 3: after our story, he came out and talked about the 263 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:45,120 Speaker 3: idea of a potentially friendly takeover of Cuba. He's more 264 00:15:45,160 --> 00:15:48,640 Speaker 3: recently entertained the idea that could be a friendly takeover 265 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 3: or not so friendly, and so he's teased this idea 266 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:56,160 Speaker 3: of using force in Cuba. Already, the threat of force 267 00:15:56,200 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 3: and interdiction has stopped, for instance, Mexico, which was the 268 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 3: main supplier of oil to Cuba after Venezuela, from sending 269 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 3: oil to Cuba, and so we've already seen the threat 270 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 3: of force at work here. 271 00:16:10,240 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 2: Eric, we've talked about sort of three ways that the 272 00:16:12,280 --> 00:16:17,200 Speaker 2: Trump administration is pursuing putting pressure on Cuba. The first 273 00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 2: is continued talks, diplomacy, deal making, the second would be 274 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:25,320 Speaker 2: military intervention, and the third would be using financial pressure 275 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:28,000 Speaker 2: to make Cuba dependent on the US. Do we know 276 00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 2: about which option the Trump administration prefers or which option 277 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:33,000 Speaker 2: would be most likely. 278 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 3: Well, one thing we've seen from President Trump's comments is 279 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 3: that his expectation and his view is that Cuba wants 280 00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:44,160 Speaker 3: to make a deal. But he's also talked about Cuba 281 00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:46,920 Speaker 3: being dealt with. He's repeatedly said Cuba would be dealt 282 00:16:46,960 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 3: with after Iran. So I think one important signal will 283 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:54,320 Speaker 3: be watching what happens with the current war in Iran. 284 00:16:55,040 --> 00:17:00,200 Speaker 3: If there is a de escalation or a negotiation to 285 00:17:00,240 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 3: reopen the Strait of Ormuz to de escalate the conflict 286 00:17:03,640 --> 00:17:06,040 Speaker 3: in Iran. And so attention I think is likely to 287 00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 3: turn more to Cuba if there is a resolution or 288 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:12,960 Speaker 3: an easing of the conflict and the war in Iran. 289 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 2: And Jim, I want to turn back to you here. 290 00:17:16,240 --> 00:17:19,440 Speaker 2: The US has opposed the communist government in Cuba for decades, 291 00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 2: since the nineteen sixties. How significant would any of these outcomes, 292 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 2: a diplomatic resolution, a military intervention, and economic takeover be 293 00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 2: in the sweep of Cuban history And what message would 294 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:36,480 Speaker 2: they send to the rest of Latin America. 295 00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 1: I mean, this would be incredibly significant. I mean, as 296 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 1: you've mentioned, ever since Kennedy, successive US presidents have been 297 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 1: trying to either force a change, negotiate a change, finesse 298 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,679 Speaker 1: a change and the island and it's never happened. The 299 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:54,320 Speaker 1: government has always rallied, the government has always been able 300 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:57,600 Speaker 1: to protect itself. It's an incredible story of kind of 301 00:17:57,840 --> 00:18:02,119 Speaker 1: political survival in Cuba. And so if they ended that 302 00:18:02,240 --> 00:18:05,639 Speaker 1: sixty seven year run of single party rule, if Trump 303 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 1: was the one to do it, that'd be incredibly significant. 304 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:11,960 Speaker 1: There is this really romantic notion about Cuba in the 305 00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 1: Latin American left. I suspect that a Cuba that actually fell, 306 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,720 Speaker 1: that succumbed to Washington would only increase kind of the 307 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:23,119 Speaker 1: nostalgia of what Cuba once was. I think we'll be 308 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:27,400 Speaker 1: dealing with the consequences of whatever happens in Cuba, one 309 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:30,080 Speaker 1: way or another for decades to come in Latin America. 310 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 2: This is The Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm Sarah Holder. 311 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,120 Speaker 2: To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access 312 00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 2: to all of Bloomberg dot Com, subscribe today at Bloomberg 313 00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 2: dot com slash podcast offer. If you liked this episode, 314 00:18:47,680 --> 00:18:50,320 Speaker 2: make sure to subscribe and review The Big Take wherever 315 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:53,200 Speaker 2: you listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show. 316 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:56,159 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.