WEBVTT - Taiwan Election Results, US Spending Talks

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning. I'm Brian Curtis and I'm Doug Prisner. Here

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<v Speaker 1>are the stories we're following today.

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump leads the polls as we head into the

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<v Speaker 2>Iowa caucus. Let's get more from Dan Schwartzman in New York.

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<v Speaker 2>Dan Hey, Brian.

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<v Speaker 3>According to an NBC News Des Moines Registry poll, Republican

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<v Speaker 3>presidential front runner Donald Trump does lead Nikki Haley handily

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<v Speaker 3>heading into Iowa caucus's Monday. The poll shows Trump with

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<v Speaker 3>forty eight percent support, Haley sitting at twenty percent. Haley,

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<v Speaker 3>taking part in a telephone town hall, says Trump isn't

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<v Speaker 3>the right choice.

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<v Speaker 4>We can't be a country in disarray and a world

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<v Speaker 4>on fire and go through four more years of chaos.

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<v Speaker 5>We won't survive it.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think a lot of that is how we

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<v Speaker 4>communicates and what happened.

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<v Speaker 3>It just sets us all in disarray. Haley was taking

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<v Speaker 3>part in the telephone town hall after her event was

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<v Speaker 3>canceled due to the weather. Coming in third place in

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<v Speaker 3>that poll Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at just sixteen percent.

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<v Speaker 3>While Trump does hold a commanding lead, Support for the

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<v Speaker 3>former president has softened slightly from fifty one percent into

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<v Speaker 3>the last poll, which is taken back in December. Meanwhile,

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<v Speaker 3>Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds endorsed Desantus in the Republican presidential primary.

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<v Speaker 3>She recently sat down with Bloomberg's Sleigh Up Moss on

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<v Speaker 3>the inaugural episode of The Big Take DC podcast. Reynolds

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<v Speaker 3>doesn't think Trump has a nomination locked up.

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<v Speaker 4>I don't believe the polls. The same polls told us

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<v Speaker 4>in this last election we were going to have a

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<v Speaker 4>red tsunami across the country, and that didn't happen. It

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<v Speaker 4>did in Iowa, it did in Florida because we did

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<v Speaker 4>what we said we were going to do and past

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<v Speaker 4>policies that impact the people that we serve, but it

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<v Speaker 4>wasn't the case across the country.

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<v Speaker 3>Here more of our interview with Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds

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<v Speaker 3>on The Big Take DC podcast, and tune in tomorrow

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<v Speaker 3>for a special edition of Balance of Power at five

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<v Speaker 3>pm Eastern Time, followed by live coverage of the Iowa

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<v Speaker 3>CAUCUSUS at eight on Bloomberg Radio and television. The US

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<v Speaker 3>has been hit with frigid weather that sent temperatures plummeting

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<v Speaker 3>to minus five degrees in parts of the Midwest, while

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<v Speaker 3>potentially dumping up to two feet of snow in western

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<v Speaker 3>New York. In Iowa, wear that twenty twenty four Republican

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<v Speaker 3>present cycle gets under way Monday evening, the National Weather

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<v Speaker 3>Service issuing an advisory for quote life threatening windshills through

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<v Speaker 3>noon Central Time on Tuesday. According to flight Aware, over

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<v Speaker 3>thirteen hundred flights in and out of the country were

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<v Speaker 3>canceled due to weather. With the possibility of a government

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<v Speaker 3>shutdown occurring January twentieth, Congressional leaders working on a renewed

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<v Speaker 3>stopgap funding bill to keep the government funded into March.

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<v Speaker 3>An extension plan seems to be a solution, as two

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<v Speaker 3>staggered deadlines approach for the twelve annual government funding bills

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<v Speaker 3>are needed to be passed by January nineteenth. Remaining eight

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<v Speaker 3>have to be passed by February second. House and Senate

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<v Speaker 3>leaders working to continue funding at existing levels until March

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<v Speaker 3>first for the first four and March eighth for remaining eight.

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<v Speaker 3>While Democratic Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has begun procedural

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<v Speaker 3>steps toward a stopgap bill, Republican House Majority Leader Mike

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<v Speaker 3>Johnson has yet to commit to one. Republican Ohio Representative

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<v Speaker 3>Jim Jordan says he wants a longer stopgap spending bill

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<v Speaker 3>passed April, and he also says Speaker Johnson will be

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<v Speaker 3>rejecting the border compromise. Global News twenty four hours a

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<v Speaker 3>day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News. Now,

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Dan Schwartzman, and this is Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia, Brian Curtis and Doug Krisner,

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<v Speaker 2>and we will joined by Vonnie Quinn a little bit later.

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<v Speaker 2>Now it's time for the top business and political stories

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<v Speaker 2>of the hour. China is warning the United States not

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<v Speaker 2>to interfere in Taiwan's affairs. That's after a US friendly candidate,

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<v Speaker 2>Leijing Da won Taiwan's presidential election on Saturday. Lie signaled

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<v Speaker 2>that he would cooperate with China moving forward, but it's

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<v Speaker 2>unlikely that the party, the DPP, would be able to

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<v Speaker 2>restart talks with Beijing. The Communist Party demands agreement that

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<v Speaker 2>Taiwan is part of China as a prerequisite for any

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<v Speaker 2>such dialogue. Talks between China and Taiwan have been suspended

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<v Speaker 2>over the past eight years. Kerry Brown is professor of

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<v Speaker 2>Chinese Studies at King's College, London. He thinks there's still

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<v Speaker 2>some room for a relationship moving forward.

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<v Speaker 6>Taiwan has for forty five percent of its trade with

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<v Speaker 6>China solone, there's got to be some relationship, even if

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<v Speaker 6>it's not a particularly friendly one.

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<v Speaker 2>Kerry Brown Beijing said that the election result will not

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<v Speaker 2>change Taiwan's status, and after Li's victory, President Biden repeated

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<v Speaker 2>that the US does not support independence for Taiwan, and

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<v Speaker 2>coming up in a few moments, we will be talking

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<v Speaker 2>with Ivy Quak, who is a China fellow at the

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<v Speaker 2>International Crisis Group for more on the Taiwan elections.

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<v Speaker 5>Well.

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<v Speaker 1>Financial markets may respond positively to those election results for Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 1>although as Brian pointed out, that could change if China

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<v Speaker 1>were to respond more aggressively. Bloomberg, David and Glass has

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<v Speaker 1>more from Hong Kong.

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<v Speaker 7>Local stocks, and the Taiwan dollar had already priced in

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<v Speaker 7>a presidential victory for the DPP and the loss of

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<v Speaker 7>its majority in the legislature. Experts now say that may

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<v Speaker 7>lead to a more centrist orientation of policies in Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 7>and that might provide a positive impact to financial markets.

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<v Speaker 7>Traders will also be watched Beijing. So far, China's reaction

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<v Speaker 7>has been relatively mild. It said only that the results

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<v Speaker 7>do not represent mainstream public opinion on the island. The

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<v Speaker 7>Taiwan dollar is expected to remain steady as it's driven

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<v Speaker 7>more by export trends, the tech outlook and FED policy

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<v Speaker 7>in the US. In Hong Kong, I'm David Ingless Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>China's financial market regulator says, you will adopt a zero

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<v Speaker 2>tolerance policy toward illegal behavior. Bloomberg's Juan Wong has the

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<v Speaker 2>story from Hong Kong.

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<v Speaker 8>China's regulators said it would make sure those who commit

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<v Speaker 8>crimes pay a painful price. The National Financial Regulator Administration

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<v Speaker 8>said it would consider revising punishment rules. Authorities also said

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<v Speaker 8>that with strengthen communication and coordination with China's judicial organizations,

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<v Speaker 8>the enhanced scrutiny is part of a deepening crackdown that

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<v Speaker 8>spans finance to health. On Friday, the PBOC also pledged

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<v Speaker 8>to enhance its market oversight via stronger punishments. Moose or

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<v Speaker 8>online with President Chijin Pink's vow to eradicate corruption in

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<v Speaker 8>Hong Kong and joined Wong Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>The US economy could soon get another massive cash infusion.

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<v Speaker 1>Congressional negotiators are currently talking about renewing business tax breaks

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<v Speaker 1>and boosting the child tax credit, and if a deal

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<v Speaker 1>manages to pass a deeply divided Congress, the American economy

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<v Speaker 1>could see a fiscal boost worth at least seventy billion

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<v Speaker 1>dollars now. Needless to say, the extra cash could boost

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<v Speaker 1>consumer spending, but some economist are saying it could also

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<v Speaker 1>trigger another round of inflation, and obviously that could make

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<v Speaker 1>the Fed's job a little more difficult right.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, to some corporate news now, Doug, we're hearing at

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<v Speaker 2>Apple is shutting down its artificial intelligence team of more

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<v Speaker 2>than one hundred people in San Diego. That story from

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's Denise Pelgrini.

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<v Speaker 9>Sources say the data operations annotations unit is suddenly being

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<v Speaker 9>told it's merging with similar operations in Austin, Texas, and

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<v Speaker 9>San Diego. Workers are being told they'll be fired if

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<v Speaker 9>they don't agree to the move. The group also has

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<v Speaker 9>offices in China, India, Ireland, and Spain. It's responsible for

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<v Speaker 9>evaluating if Siri hears and responds correctly in various languages.

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<v Speaker 9>Apple says everyone on the San Diego team is being

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<v Speaker 9>offered jobs in Texas. Apple stock has been faltering lately.

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<v Speaker 9>A Microsoft overtook Apple Friday is the world's most valuable company.

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<v Speaker 9>Concerned about Apple's iPhone business in China has been weighing

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<v Speaker 9>on the stock. Denise Pelgrit Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Bloomberg Daybreak Asia. Brian Curtis and Vonnie Quinn

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<v Speaker 2>joins us now from New York. Our guest is Ivy Quek,

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<v Speaker 2>who is China Fellow at the International Crisis Group, to

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<v Speaker 2>take a closer look at the election. So so many

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<v Speaker 2>angles here, Ivy to talk about it will set aside

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<v Speaker 2>the geopolitics for the moment and just say that for

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<v Speaker 2>this moment the status quo has been maintained, but there

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<v Speaker 2>will be some differences with William Lai's victory here. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>curious how you see the Lie administration differing from perhaps

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<v Speaker 2>signing ones.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, the president elect. Lie has vowed to preserve President's

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<v Speaker 5>high legacy, so I would say that we will expect

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<v Speaker 5>to see some continuity in terms of their approach when

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<v Speaker 5>it comes to cross right relations as well as our

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<v Speaker 5>relations with the United States. I think what differs between

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<v Speaker 5>UH the new president and President's hie is that he

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<v Speaker 5>has not yet uh built uh the trust uh specifically

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<v Speaker 5>for himself, uh unlike our president HIE has that has

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<v Speaker 5>proven himself to be a very steady hand and also

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<v Speaker 5>practice a very moderate policy when it comes to uh

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<v Speaker 5>these uh diplomatic issues. So I think that that is

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<v Speaker 5>something that President elect Lie I would have to uh

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<v Speaker 5>will have the established really soon as he takes office.

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<v Speaker 10>What about the idea that the mandate might have been

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<v Speaker 10>like a little bit that there was just forty percent

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<v Speaker 10>of the people that voted, and that there's also now

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<v Speaker 10>a difference between who's running the country and who's running

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<v Speaker 10>parliament i e. Coalition.

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, So I think the election result is quite in

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<v Speaker 5>line with what the posts said before this, and it's

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<v Speaker 5>quite expected. So he did not get a majority, it's

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<v Speaker 5>only forty percent, but given that it was a tree

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<v Speaker 5>colin of flight, I would say that this is still

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<v Speaker 5>quite a solid result. That DPP has received a pretty

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<v Speaker 5>good support and going forward, as you said that the

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<v Speaker 5>DPP does not also control the majority at the legislative

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<v Speaker 5>wiand it means that there might have to be more

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<v Speaker 5>consultations between the parties that might be more negotiations, and

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<v Speaker 5>it is true that the president might see his power

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<v Speaker 5>relatively uh restrained, But I would say that, uh, all

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<v Speaker 5>three parties do have some level of consensus when it

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<v Speaker 5>comes to key issues such as uh, uh you know,

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<v Speaker 5>maintaining a good ties with the US, so I would say,

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<v Speaker 5>and also strengthening the defense capability of Taiwan. So I

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<v Speaker 5>would say that we shouldn't we shouldn't see to to

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<v Speaker 5>too much of a difficulty in maintaining some of these policies.

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<v Speaker 5>Obviously you're see more politic theatrics, but I guess, uh,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, in every democracy, Uh, these check out balances

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<v Speaker 5>are sometimes also always also a good thing.

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<v Speaker 2>I want to get to the China response, but I

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<v Speaker 2>I think I need to follow up. I think a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of Going long supporters are quite frustrated here. Even

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<v Speaker 2>though you say that you know the result was a

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<v Speaker 2>pretty solid result for the d p P. You have

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<v Speaker 2>to almost go back to the year two thousand when

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<v Speaker 2>James Song ran that you you had this begin to happen,

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<v Speaker 2>where the opposition to the d p P is divided

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<v Speaker 2>like this, Uh do you expect that to continue? What

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<v Speaker 2>do you think the next time around?

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<v Speaker 7>Uh?

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<v Speaker 2>The opposition will be able to somehow form a coalition.

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<v Speaker 5>I think this time around, we definitely see a lot

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<v Speaker 5>of this satisfaction, a lot of uh discontent towards the

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<v Speaker 5>DPP that is now being viewed as an establishment. So

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<v Speaker 5>a lot of these protest vote have either gone to

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<v Speaker 5>the K and T or the TPP, especially the TPP

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<v Speaker 5>for UH, who has gotten a lot of formerly DPP votes.

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<v Speaker 5>So I would say that it really depends on how

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<v Speaker 5>well President might like and really uh improve its policy,

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<v Speaker 5>especially it's domestic agenda to win these votes. Otherwise, I

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<v Speaker 5>think that we might continue to see uh the opposition

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<v Speaker 5>uh you know, being able to uh uh uh you know,

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<v Speaker 5>based on these issues, will be able to get more support.

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<v Speaker 5>As to whether the opposition can actually unite as one,

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<v Speaker 5>I think that that remains to be seen. I think

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<v Speaker 5>really depends on how well they can work together this

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<v Speaker 5>time around, and especially for TPP, what kind of role,

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<v Speaker 5>what kind of response that they're going to take, because

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<v Speaker 5>at this moment it is still unclear whether they will

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<v Speaker 5>work with the county or they could possibly also be

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<v Speaker 5>working with the BPD government more closely.

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<v Speaker 10>I know Ryan wants to ask about the China response,

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<v Speaker 10>So let's do that now in case we run out

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<v Speaker 10>of time. What kind of reaction did you have when

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<v Speaker 10>you saw the statement compared to the statement four years ago?

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<v Speaker 5>I would say that, yeah, it is a relatively bound statement.

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<v Speaker 5>I think that perhaps Beijing have also expected this result,

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<v Speaker 5>and the fact that the fact that they did not

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<v Speaker 5>win the majority UH the legislative and also you know,

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<v Speaker 5>maybe UH reduced some of Beijing's anxieties in terms of

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<v Speaker 5>UH UH the the influence of d p P. But

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<v Speaker 5>I also I think essentially UH, Beijing wants to keep

0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:25.680
<v Speaker 5>things under control. It does not want UH the tensions

0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:31.160
<v Speaker 5>to UH over over over blown because I think that

0:13:31.679 --> 0:13:35.120
<v Speaker 5>stability is what Beijing is looking for right now in

0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:38.520
<v Speaker 5>terms of its relations with What's interesting process.

0:13:38.640 --> 0:13:42.760
<v Speaker 2>What's interesting is that even with that mild response from China,

0:13:43.160 --> 0:13:46.280
<v Speaker 2>we we also saw a pretty mild response from la

0:13:46.400 --> 0:13:49.040
<v Speaker 2>Ching the I mean, he did not really get up

0:13:49.080 --> 0:13:51.880
<v Speaker 2>and beat the chest, did he. How do you interpret

0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:54.040
<v Speaker 2>the comments that he made after the victory.

0:13:56.640 --> 0:14:00.920
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I think that maintaining a state school is really

0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:05.240
<v Speaker 5>the prefer way forward for the Taiwanese populations. So UH,

0:14:05.360 --> 0:14:09.920
<v Speaker 5>I think that UH there is UH this understanding UH

0:14:10.080 --> 0:14:14.800
<v Speaker 5>that going forward there needs to be more uh you know,

0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:19.280
<v Speaker 5>more moderation, and uh there needs to be that, uh

0:14:19.880 --> 0:14:23.000
<v Speaker 5>that both parties need to fight, both sides need to

0:14:23.080 --> 0:14:27.080
<v Speaker 5>find a way to resume dialogues because uh it is

0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:32.400
<v Speaker 5>not sustainable for for both sides to to continue.

0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:33.080
<v Speaker 10>Uh.

0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:38.760
<v Speaker 5>These are very tense relations where there's almost known dialogues

0:14:38.800 --> 0:14:42.040
<v Speaker 5>have happened in the past eight years. So uh I

0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:45.560
<v Speaker 5>think that for the next new government, Uh, there needs

0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:48.960
<v Speaker 5>to be also more effort to seek a nature understanding

0:14:49.760 --> 0:14:53.680
<v Speaker 5>with Beijing so that uh, you know, the crustrated dialogue

0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:54.200
<v Speaker 5>can resume.

0:14:57.160 --> 0:14:59.920
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