1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:11,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 2: Single best idea on a very odd day. It's odd 3 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 2: when the UN meetings are happening in New York, all 4 00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:22,640 Speaker 2: sorts of things going on. Great to see Francine Lacroix 5 00:00:22,640 --> 00:00:25,840 Speaker 2: and studio off of her important interview with the leadership 6 00:00:25,920 --> 00:00:30,479 Speaker 2: of Finland, Miles Miller stopping by as well, looking at 7 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:35,320 Speaker 2: the chaos, the constructive chaos within midtown Manhattan. But on 8 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 2: this day we did have to look still at equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. 9 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 2: That's the world of Lisa Shalatte at Morgan Stanley, driving 10 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 2: Morgan Stanley Wealth. She looked out to next year. 11 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 3: I will be very clear. You know, our chief US 12 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 3: equity strategist, Mike Wilson, believes that we are going to 13 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:57,640 Speaker 3: see this positive operating leverage in twenty twenty six and 14 00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 3: that those numbers are secure. And I disagree and on 15 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 3: this point, and I believe that the margins that are 16 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:08,640 Speaker 3: baked into the earnings estimates next year, which call for 17 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:12,000 Speaker 3: thirteen fourteen percent year over year growth, which by our 18 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 3: guestimates are about one hundred and forty basis points of 19 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:18,279 Speaker 3: expansion from where we are are going to be really 20 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 3: hard to deliver, especially when the full effects of tariffs 21 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 3: play through. Somebody's paying these tariffs and if it's not 22 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:32,880 Speaker 3: the consumer, and the US consumer has been very clear 23 00:01:32,959 --> 00:01:37,920 Speaker 3: that they're willing to push back and reallocate their spending 24 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:42,399 Speaker 3: away from higher prices. I think we're going to see 25 00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:45,680 Speaker 3: some companies in some sectors having to admit that they're 26 00:01:45,720 --> 00:01:46,320 Speaker 3: absorbing it. 27 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 2: Lisa shout out Morgan Stanley. What you heard there is 28 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:53,120 Speaker 2: a hallmark of Morgan Stanley Research for decades. They have 29 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 2: really embraced an argument within research, a constructive discussion where 30 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 2: people are allowed to disagree collegially. I think collegially, maybe 31 00:02:03,280 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 2: sometimes less collegially as well. Darien Shames or this he's 32 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 2: with Namura look talking to clients much more on the 33 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:15,359 Speaker 2: sales side than the strategy side, and he was absolutely 34 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 2: brilliant today on how foreign investors perceive the United States. 35 00:02:21,200 --> 00:02:21,760 Speaker 2: Let's listen. 36 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of scenario analysis right now 37 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 1: about what the different outcomes could be for certain situations. Obviously, 38 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 1: the Lisa Cook story and how that plays out in 39 00:02:31,040 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 1: front of the Supreme Court is a major focal point, 40 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:38,359 Speaker 1: probably even more so than Jerome Palell's successor next year. 41 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 3: Interesting. 42 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:42,239 Speaker 2: Interesting you think Lisa Cook is a bigger deal than. 43 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:45,640 Speaker 1: The replace I think for investors if you look at 44 00:02:45,880 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 1: her being potentially sidelined and the inability to participate in 45 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 1: the FED at some point going forward, if the Supreme 46 00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:55,640 Speaker 1: Court was to rule in that direction, I think that 47 00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 1: means it's a relatively low bar for that to happen 48 00:02:58,360 --> 00:02:59,799 Speaker 1: to other FED governors. 49 00:03:00,280 --> 00:03:03,360 Speaker 2: Darren Shames with the Murah just back from Asia treatment 50 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 2: there of the foreign perception. Lizzie and Saunders out with 51 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 2: a great chart today. I think I sought out on 52 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:15,720 Speaker 2: Twitter of the percent US ownership by foreign investors. It's 53 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 2: just a steady climb over the last fifteen years. We're 54 00:03:20,320 --> 00:03:24,840 Speaker 2: podcasts run on Spotify and Apple as well on YouTube podcasts. 55 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:35,000 Speaker 2: It's single best idea.