WEBVTT - Bloomberg Daybreak: December 19, 2022 - Hour 1 (Radio) 0:00:02.320 --> 0:00:05.519 Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Berger Studios. This is Bloomberg 0:00:05.600 --> 0:00:09.360 Daybreak for Monday, December nineteen two. Coming up this hour, 0:00:09.680 --> 0:00:13.000 a new Twitter poll could reshape leadership of the company. 0:00:13.119 --> 0:00:15.760 The January six Committee votes on the legal fate of 0:00:15.840 --> 0:00:19.640 former President Trump. COVID deaths in China come into focus 0:00:19.640 --> 0:00:22.880 as it pivots away from strict policies, and Marcus looked 0:00:22.880 --> 0:00:26.079 to recover from a FED induced skid. How will the 0:00:26.239 --> 0:00:29.760 lengthly end of two in fact Immigrants, States and cities 0:00:29.840 --> 0:00:32.400 plus the largest menora in New York City was lit 0:00:32.479 --> 0:00:36.560 to begin ANAKA By'm Michael barn or I'm John Stadtoward Sports. 0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:38.720 The Giants held on for a big win at Washington, 0:00:38.800 --> 0:00:41.640 the Jets lost in Detroit, and mixed Nets and Rangers 0:00:41.640 --> 0:00:48.080 all one. That's All's training ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak on Bloomberg. 0:00:48.120 --> 0:00:52.000 He Living Free on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, d C, 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:56.760 Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, San Francisco, 0:00:57.240 --> 0:01:00.320 Syrius Exam one nineteen and around the world Old on 0:01:00.440 --> 0:01:03.720 Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the Bloomberg Business App. 0:01:07.600 --> 0:01:10.720 Good Morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. US 0:01:10.800 --> 0:01:13.280 Dock Index futures around the rise this morning, and we 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:16.160 check the markets all day long here on Bloomberg radios, 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:19.480 and P futures up about twelve coints down, futures are 0:01:19.560 --> 0:01:23.160 up eighty two and NASDAG futures up thirty seven decks. 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:25.920 In Germany's up four tenths of upper cent ten. Your 0:01:25.959 --> 0:01:29.640 treasury down eleven thirty seconds, yel three point five two percent, 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:31.720 and a yield on the two year four point one 0:01:31.880 --> 0:01:35.000 seven percent. Nathan, Karen, We'll have more on markets in 0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:38.440 a moment. First, we begin with more turmoil at Twitter. 0:01:38.640 --> 0:01:42.000 A new poll on the social media platform could determine 0:01:42.040 --> 0:01:46.240 Elon Musk's next role at the company. Bloomberg Steve Rappafort 0:01:46.319 --> 0:01:49.200 joins US Live with the latest. Good morning Steve, Good 0:01:49.200 --> 0:01:52.320 morning Nathan and Karen. So the big question, Elon, You've 0:01:52.360 --> 0:01:54.600 got to let us know. Will you stay or will 0:01:54.640 --> 0:01:57.280 you go? The answer should come next hour when voting 0:01:57.360 --> 0:01:59.400 ends for the poll in which Musk asks whether he 0:01:59.440 --> 0:02:02.520 should step down as Twitter CEO. More than fifteen million 0:02:02.600 --> 0:02:05.400 users voted so far, with the majority saying they want 0:02:05.520 --> 0:02:08.400 Musk out. He pledged to abide by the results. The 0:02:08.480 --> 0:02:10.799 last seven weeks have been full of twists, turns, and 0:02:10.960 --> 0:02:15.040 Dramason's musk took over the platform, leaving some advertisers on Edge. 0:02:15.280 --> 0:02:18.840 Live in New York, I'm Steve Rappaport Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, Steve, thanks. 0:02:18.840 --> 0:02:22.000 We turning to a major headline in politics this morning. 0:02:22.040 --> 0:02:25.760 The House January six Committee votes today on recommendations that 0:02:25.960 --> 0:02:30.760 former President Trump the prosecuted, Bloomberg said. Bachelor reports lawmakers 0:02:30.800 --> 0:02:34.680 are considering a number of charges, among them for obstructing 0:02:34.680 --> 0:02:38.560 an official government proceeding and conspirasuited to fraud the United States. 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:42.160 Congressman Adam Schiff already saying that Trump's actions are pretty 0:02:42.240 --> 0:02:45.880 much a good match for criminal insurrection charges. This is 0:02:45.919 --> 0:02:49.280 someone who tried to interfere with the Joint Session, even 0:02:49.320 --> 0:02:52.720 inciting a mob to attack the Capitol. If that's not criminal, 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:55.839 then that I know it is. Recommendation could also come 0:02:55.840 --> 0:02:59.080 from Mark Meadows and Rudy Giuliana. Hearing at one pm 0:02:59.120 --> 0:03:03.600 Wall Street Time in San Francisco. I'm at Baxter Bloomberg Radio. Okay, 0:03:03.840 --> 0:03:07.120 thank you. Meantime, Senator Kirsten Cinema's defection from the Democratic 0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:10.600 Party continues to reverberate across Washington, and now it has 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:13.520 some asking if Joe Manchon could do the same. The 0:03:13.560 --> 0:03:16.320 West Virginia senator, though, says he remains committed to the 0:03:16.360 --> 0:03:20.119 Democratic Party for now. They know how independent I am. 0:03:20.160 --> 0:03:22.720 The deed does not saddle me to everything the Democrats 0:03:22.720 --> 0:03:24.720 want to do is what's right. I don't think the 0:03:24.760 --> 0:03:27.320 Democrats have all the answers. I don't think the Republicans 0:03:27.320 --> 0:03:30.560 are always wrong and vice versa. I don't look at 0:03:30.600 --> 0:03:33.520 things that way. Senator Mansion made those comments on Face 0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:36.320 the Nation from CBS, which you can hear every Sunday 0:03:36.400 --> 0:03:40.280 on Bloomberg Radio. Well, let's turn overseas now to Shina, Nathan, 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:43.280 where the government's response to a COVID outbreak is front 0:03:43.320 --> 0:03:45.760 and center. More than a month after the country saw 0:03:45.800 --> 0:03:49.840 an exponential surge in COVID cases, is reporting minimal deaths 0:03:49.840 --> 0:03:52.840 from the virus. That's calling into question how Beijing is 0:03:52.920 --> 0:03:55.960 changing its approach to COVID, and Bloomberg's John Lou has 0:03:56.000 --> 0:03:59.240 more on that story. Suspicion is growing the China maybe 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:02.240 undercounting the number of COVID deaths in the country. That's 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:06.240 after authorities reported to fatalities today the first deaths officially 0:04:06.240 --> 0:04:09.440 attributed to COVID since the country began pivoting away from 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:13.320 COVID zero in early December. It's also admitted media reports 0:04:13.320 --> 0:04:16.919 of increased activity at crematoriums and funeral homes in Beijing, 0:04:17.320 --> 0:04:20.480 and follows the report by Chinese outlets hishing the authorities 0:04:20.480 --> 0:04:24.200 of substantially narrowed the definition of what a COVID death is. 0:04:24.440 --> 0:04:27.120 All of this is casting further doubt on how reliable 0:04:27.200 --> 0:04:31.320 China's official data is in Beijing. Am Joel lou Bloomberg, daybreak. 0:04:31.560 --> 0:04:34.240 All right, John, thank you. Turning to markets now. Futures 0:04:34.279 --> 0:04:36.960 are higher to begin the week. Assets are still adjusting 0:04:37.000 --> 0:04:39.880 to central bank rhetoric. We saw the SMP five and 0:04:40.040 --> 0:04:42.680 last week two percent lower after hawk is remarks from 0:04:42.680 --> 0:04:46.200 the Fed and European Central Bank. Former Treasury Secretary Larry 0:04:46.200 --> 0:04:48.720 Somers tells us even though markets took a hit, he 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:52.159 has confidence in FED Chair J. Powell. The Chairman is 0:04:52.240 --> 0:04:57.000 in about the right place. He's recognizing that we can't 0:04:57.080 --> 0:05:02.000 forecast the economy with precision. He's recognizing that it would 0:05:02.000 --> 0:05:06.960 be a terrible error if we were to fail to 0:05:07.200 --> 0:05:11.599 stop inflation in this episode, Larry Summer says the FED 0:05:11.640 --> 0:05:14.880 should still be concerned with challenging decisions on the horizon. 0:05:14.920 --> 0:05:17.680 The former Treasury secretary was a guest on Bloomberg's Wall 0:05:17.720 --> 0:05:20.920 Street Week, heard every weekend on Bloomberg Radio and television. 0:05:21.240 --> 0:05:25.280 Well rhetoric from the Fed also reverberated across Asia. Overnight, 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:27.920 Nathan and stocks in the regions slid as type policy 0:05:27.960 --> 0:05:31.280 stoked fears of a global recession. Bloomberg Daybreak Asia anchor 0:05:31.320 --> 0:05:34.799 Brian Curtis has more. Asian stocks declined as the Fed 0:05:34.880 --> 0:05:38.280 hammered home it's committed to raising interest rates. The end 0:05:38.279 --> 0:05:41.359 extended gains for a second day. The yield on Japan's 0:05:41.400 --> 0:05:44.120 five year note rose to the highest in seven years. 0:05:44.440 --> 0:05:47.560 A Kyoto report said Japan's Prime minister might allow more 0:05:47.560 --> 0:05:52.240 flexibility and monetary policy. A top government spokesman denied the report. 0:05:52.520 --> 0:05:56.200 The dollar was weaker. Brian Curtis, Bloomberg day Break. Okay, Brian, 0:05:56.200 --> 0:05:58.320 thank you. Back here in the US, there's more economic 0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:01.880 data to digest this week. Housing data takes center stage 0:06:01.880 --> 0:06:04.839 on the week's agenda. Bloomberg's viny Dell Judas has a preview. 0:06:05.160 --> 0:06:09.080 We'll get data on US builder confidence today, housing starts tomorrow, 0:06:09.400 --> 0:06:12.880 existing home sales Wednesday, and new home sales Friday. The 0:06:12.960 --> 0:06:17.320 builder confidence data provide a perfect illustration of US market conditions. 0:06:17.600 --> 0:06:20.159 Sentiment has been falling since the start of the year. 0:06:20.200 --> 0:06:22.320 The longest structure of the clients and data back to 0:06:24.000 --> 0:06:27.480 his interest rates rise altso one. This week's US agenda 0:06:27.680 --> 0:06:31.880 data on consumer confidence and come and spending manufacturing in 0:06:31.920 --> 0:06:35.960 the final revision of third quarter GDP data fill Judas 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:38.360 Bloomberg day break right Annie, thank you Bill. Turning to 0:06:38.440 --> 0:06:41.320 oil now, we're seeing swings between gains and losses as 0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:44.359 morning crude rose at the week's open following a pledge 0:06:44.400 --> 0:06:47.600 from China to revive consumption. There's also news of a 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:50.640 plan from the Biden administration to begin refilling the nation's 0:06:50.640 --> 0:06:53.920 strategic reserves. Checking prices right now now, I'm ex scrude 0:06:53.920 --> 0:06:56.440 oil up eight tens of upper set straight ahead, your 0:06:56.520 --> 0:06:58.720 latest local headlines, plus a check of sports, and this 0:06:58.920 --> 0:07:04.960 is Bloomberg, Thank you Carrot. It is now thirty one 0:07:05.040 --> 0:07:08.320 degrees in Central Park. I mean brisk today, mostly sunny, breezy, 0:07:08.400 --> 0:07:10.880 though the high only near forty degrees. We get back 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:13.120 down to the thirties tonight taped out to look at 0:07:13.160 --> 0:07:14.840 some of the other stories making news in New York 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:16.720 and around the world. So that we're joined by Bloomberg, 0:07:16.800 --> 0:07:20.040 spikel bar Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Nathan. The Texas 0:07:20.240 --> 0:07:23.320 town of El Paso, on the border has declared a 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:26.600 state of emergency fearing an influx of migrants. This week, 0:07:26.640 --> 0:07:29.440 when a court ordered forces the Biden administration to lift 0:07:29.480 --> 0:07:33.040 Titled forty two, the Trump era provision returned to all 0:07:33.080 --> 0:07:36.640 asylum seekers back to Mexico, forcing them to wait there 0:07:36.720 --> 0:07:41.160 while their asylum requests are processed. Texas Governor Greg Abbott 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:43.600 says there will be total chaos at the southern border 0:07:43.680 --> 0:07:46.920 if Title forty two is lifted as planned. Governor Rabbit 0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:51.440 accused President Biden of having open border policies, policies he 0:07:51.560 --> 0:07:55.360 says militias actors are taking advantage of it is known 0:07:56.200 --> 0:07:59.920 by the cartels have sophisticate information. Whether or not the 0:08:00.000 --> 0:08:02.640 Bid administration is going to enforce the immigration laws or 0:08:02.680 --> 0:08:06.960 not is known across the world, but most importantly known 0:08:07.000 --> 0:08:11.880 among the cartels. Meanwhile, Democratic Senator Alex Padilla of California 0:08:11.960 --> 0:08:15.960 pushed back against what he called republican rhetoric around the 0:08:16.120 --> 0:08:19.760 expected expiration of Title forty two. We're in a much 0:08:19.920 --> 0:08:23.000 different place when it comes to COVID today than we 0:08:23.120 --> 0:08:27.360 were to almost three years ago, so it's pastime for 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:30.440 a Title forty two to be gun. Senator Padilla, who 0:08:30.560 --> 0:08:35.559 chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee's Immigration, Citizenship and Border Safety Subcommittee, 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:38.400 and Governor Abbott spoke on ABC S this week, which 0:08:38.440 --> 0:08:42.199 can be heard Sundays on Bloomberd. Border State leaders aren't 0:08:42.240 --> 0:08:45.319 the only lawmakers sounding the alarm about the expiration of 0:08:45.400 --> 0:08:49.199 Title forty two. In New York City, more busses transporting 0:08:49.240 --> 0:08:53.520 asylum seekers are expected to arrive today. Mayor Adams is 0:08:53.600 --> 0:08:56.200 asking for a new round of federal and state help. 0:08:56.800 --> 0:08:59.520 Dozens of people were injured after a flight headed for 0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:03.600 Hawai he hit severe turbulence. Flight thirty five from Phoenix 0:09:03.640 --> 0:09:07.240 to Honolulu was thirty minutes outside of its destination when 0:09:07.320 --> 0:09:10.680 the incident happened. The plane was carrying two hundred eighty 0:09:10.720 --> 0:09:14.520 eight passengers and crew. Sunday was the first night of Hanukkah, 0:09:14.720 --> 0:09:19.079 and Jewish communities across the US are celebrating by lighting minoras. 0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:29.760 In Brooklyn, thousands attended to witness one of the city's 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:33.320 largest minors to mark the season. Global News twenty four 0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:35.719 hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quick Take, 0:09:35.720 --> 0:09:38.520 powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalist analysts in 0:09:38.600 --> 0:09:40.719 more than a hundred twenty countries. How Michael Bart, this 0:09:40.800 --> 0:09:48.040 is Bloomberg Nather. Thank you, Michael, time of the Bloomberg 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:50.240 Sports Update, brought to you by twice State Auty. For that, 0:09:50.320 --> 0:09:52.520 we bring in John stash Are. Good morning, John, Good morning. 0:09:52.760 --> 0:09:54.959 And Giants game in Washington so big it was moved 0:09:55.040 --> 0:09:58.440 into prime time. Giants who lost their last eleven night games. 0:09:58.520 --> 0:10:00.920 Daniel Jones was all and nine came in windless in 0:10:00.960 --> 0:10:03.880 their last four. Commanders had only lost one of their 0:10:03.960 --> 0:10:05.960 last eight. They're the only team to have beaten the Eagles. 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:08.520 But the Giants took the lead thanks to a rookie 0:10:08.600 --> 0:10:11.280 takes the snap back to fill. He's the cruncher, sack 0:10:11.320 --> 0:10:14.040 my Tibot on the polls loose on the ground, scooped 0:10:14.120 --> 0:10:17.960 up in the end zone for a touchdown on Tibodeau 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:21.439 with the sack before stuck, and then the touchdown. He 0:10:21.640 --> 0:10:24.480 completes the trifecta w f A and Tibodau was all 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:27.000 over the field. All night. The Giants won twenty to twelve. 0:10:27.040 --> 0:10:29.160 They held on at the end. Commanders thought they had 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:31.400 a TV to get there with him tube. It was 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:34.200 nullified by a penalty and the Giants now in much 0:10:34.280 --> 0:10:37.640 better shape to make the playoffs. The Jets are not costly. 0:10:38.720 --> 0:10:41.320 Seventeen home lost to a red hot Detroit. Zack Wilson 0:10:41.400 --> 0:10:43.600 back is the starting QB for the injured Mike White. 0:10:43.640 --> 0:10:46.160 Wilson played fairly well, but the Lions won on a 0:10:46.240 --> 0:10:48.520 late fifty one yard passed play on a fourth and 0:10:48.600 --> 0:10:50.920 one Detroits one six to the last seven. Two of 0:10:50.960 --> 0:10:54.880 those wins at midlife next Nets and Rangers all continue 0:10:54.920 --> 0:10:57.160 their winning streaks seven or ow for the next at 0:10:57.200 --> 0:10:59.280 Indiana finished on an eleven to two run and one 0:10:59.360 --> 0:11:02.360 one O nine one oh six. Jalen Brown Brupton scored 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:05.720 thirty in Detroit, Kevin Ran scored forty three. He had 0:11:05.800 --> 0:11:08.760 twenty six just in the third quarter. In the next one, 0:11:10.559 --> 0:11:13.360 Brooklyn's one its last six seven straight wins with the 0:11:13.480 --> 0:11:16.440 Rangers seven one of Chicago with seven different Ranger goal scorers. 0:11:16.640 --> 0:11:19.839 World Cup final builders Lionel Messi against Gillion and Boffi 0:11:19.960 --> 0:11:22.880 together they put seven balls into the net five on 0:11:23.000 --> 0:11:26.199 penalty kicks, Messi and Argentina beat France four three and 0:11:26.280 --> 0:11:29.720 what summer calling the most exciting soccer game ever John 0:11:29.840 --> 0:11:33.000 Dashaward Bloomberg Sports Nathan was fun to watch, that's for sure. 0:11:33.080 --> 0:11:35.240 Thank you, John, and Bloomberg Sports was brought to you 0:11:35.360 --> 0:11:37.480 by Autie. Don't let someone else drive off in the 0:11:37.520 --> 0:11:40.800 outie model you've always wanted. Visit your local try state 0:11:40.840 --> 0:11:43.080 autie dealer to get behind the wheel of yours today, 0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:46.760 or visit outie Offers dot com for more information. SMB 0:11:46.880 --> 0:11:50.120 futures right now up ten points, Stole futures up seventy two. 0:11:50.200 --> 0:11:53.079 Nastack futures are highed by thirty five points ten Your 0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:56.679 treasuries down eleven thirty seconds, bringing the yield up on 0:11:56.720 --> 0:12:02.920 the benchmark to three point five two per cent. Live 0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:06.079 from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco, 0:12:06.280 --> 0:12:10.160 Boston to Washington, d C. Nationwide on Sirius, XAMP, the 0:12:10.200 --> 0:12:14.800 Bloomberg Business App, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. 0:12:15.760 --> 0:12:19.160 Good morning, I'm Nathan Hagar. Just two trading weeks left 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:22.800 in two Let's get you started on this one. We're 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:25.120 joined now by Dennis Gartman, the former publisher of the 0:12:25.160 --> 0:12:28.360 Gartment Letter who now shares the University of Akron Endowment 0:12:28.440 --> 0:12:31.600 Investment Committee. Dennis, good Morning. Looks like futures are trying 0:12:31.600 --> 0:12:33.280 to claw back some of the losses we've seen over 0:12:33.280 --> 0:12:36.280 the last couple of weeks now following a parade of 0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:41.280 hawkish policy and rhetoric from central banks around the world. 0:12:41.679 --> 0:12:44.800 Does this relief rally have any legs for you? I 0:12:45.000 --> 0:12:47.839 think not, Nathan. I think this relief rally is probably 0:12:47.920 --> 0:12:50.720 run its course of action. I kind of take uh. 0:12:51.160 --> 0:12:53.640 I look at technicals rather substantively over the course of 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:56.120 my career, and one of the things I pay attention 0:12:56.160 --> 0:12:59.760 to is outside reversal days and more importantly outside reversal 0:12:59.840 --> 0:13:02.880 weeks periods of time when you make a new higher 0:13:02.920 --> 0:13:06.040 or new low and then close higher or lower, taking 0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:10.040 out the previous days of previous weeks range. And we've 0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:12.520 done that in a weekly reversal in the in the SMP, 0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:14.440 we've done that in a weekly reversal in the DOUBT, 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:16.199 we've done that in a weekly reversal now in the 0:13:16.280 --> 0:13:19.040 NASTAC So I think that last week will mark the 0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:22.000 highest for a protracted period of time. I think the 0:13:22.360 --> 0:13:25.360 the autumnal rally has run its course, and I think 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:28.600 that the hawk is views, manifest by the Federal Reserve Bank, 0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:33.400 manifest by the Bank of England, manifest by the monetary 0:13:33.400 --> 0:13:36.000 authorities essentially around the world, are going to have a 0:13:36.040 --> 0:13:39.640 delitarious impact upon the equity prices going forward. So take 0:13:39.640 --> 0:13:43.120 a look at the fact that that the SMP, for example, 0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:47.000 made a side. Last January, I had towards forty six 0:13:47.440 --> 0:13:49.960 forty six hundred, The next high was forty four hundred, 0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:52.600 the next high was forty three hundred, and last week 0:13:52.640 --> 0:13:55.239 we got to forty two hundred, each highest and progressively 0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:57.600 lower since the start of the year. Each low has 0:13:57.600 --> 0:14:00.079 been progressively lower since the start of the year, and 0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:02.120 then we had an outside of reversal week last week. 0:14:02.200 --> 0:14:04.800 So given the fact that we've got monetary authorities airring 0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:07.440 upon the side of hawkishness and the technicals are now 0:14:07.559 --> 0:14:10.480 quite manifestly bearished, I think it's far better to err 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:13.160 upon the side of being barished and reducing one's exposure 0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:15.240 over the course of next several weeks. I know you've 0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:17.840 been calling this a bear market pretty much all year long, 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:20.400 since the beginning of the year, as we head into 0:14:21.520 --> 0:14:24.640 three how much longer do you expect this bear market 0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:27.680 to continue? The best the one can do is get 0:14:27.720 --> 0:14:29.800 the trend right, and I think the trend is down. 0:14:29.880 --> 0:14:33.880 Getting both trend and time right is almost, It's not almost, 0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:36.640 it's an impossible task. Let's simply say that the bear 0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:39.960 market has been has been excellent since the first week 0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:42.800 of January this year. As I just said, each lowers 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:45.000 been lower, each high has been lower, and that that 0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:49.320 that trend will probably continue right this down until it stops. 0:14:49.560 --> 0:14:51.120 I think we'll take out the lows of made in 0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:53.480 October in the not two distant future, and they take 0:14:53.480 --> 0:14:56.560 a month or two to do so. And the only benefit, 0:14:56.640 --> 0:15:00.600 the only bullish circumstance prevailing, is the can we lose 0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:02.960 two of the most hawkish voting members of the f 0:15:03.280 --> 0:15:07.920 MC in February, Mrs ms Messer and Ms George from 0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:11.200 Cleveland from Kansas City, and we replace them with a 0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:13.400 couple of Dove voters in the f O m C. 0:15:13.880 --> 0:15:16.360 But that's not until February next year. In February is 0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:21.240 as far as I'm concerned, as a lifetime away. Then 0:15:21.360 --> 0:15:25.840 do you expect that the commentary that we got last 0:15:25.880 --> 0:15:29.400 week from the FED Chairman J. Powell, that rates will 0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:34.560 stay higher for longer? Is malleable? Is that something that 0:15:34.680 --> 0:15:38.920 the Fed could shake away from Uh? Depending on how 0:15:39.040 --> 0:15:42.000 things turn out in twenty three, Well, we'll see if 0:15:42.080 --> 0:15:44.920 we If we get really ugly economic data points coming 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:47.720 out in January and February, then they said, might might change. 0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:49.640 But if I've learned anything in forty five years of 0:15:49.720 --> 0:15:52.560 being involved in the markets and watching the Federal Reserve 0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:55.960 Bank Act, it's that once the FED changes monetary policy, 0:15:56.000 --> 0:15:58.320 when it moves from easing to tightening, or from tightening 0:15:58.360 --> 0:16:01.840 to easing, it takes it's much farther and takes them 0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:03.560 for a much longer period of time than even the 0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:06.080 most radical among us wants to believe. So I think 0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:09.239 that the potential for the Fed to change its policies, 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:12.920 given the dramatic use of language that we saw last week, 0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:15.760 or you couldn't miss, You couldn't you could not misunderstand 0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:18.720 what Mr Powell was talking about. He made it abundantly 0:16:18.760 --> 0:16:21.560 clear that he has no intention of moving towards easier 0:16:22.080 --> 0:16:24.560 of pivoting on rates for a protracted period of time. 0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:27.560 So it's going to be at least until four until 0:16:27.600 --> 0:16:30.640 we have any opportunity to see the FED change monetary 0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:34.120 policy back from being tightening to two easing. Anybody who 0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:36.040 thinks that that he's going to change is I think 0:16:36.120 --> 0:16:39.160 sadly wrong. Got about a minute left here in this segment, 0:16:39.240 --> 0:16:42.280 Dennis is the FED is steering itself toward a policy 0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:45.800 mistake here with this kind of tightening. The Fed always 0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:48.120 makes mistakes. They are always they tightened too far. They 0:16:48.200 --> 0:16:50.560 eased too far. They're probably gonna tighten too far. They'll 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:53.040 probably tighten us into a recession. Will there be a 0:16:53.080 --> 0:16:57.120 recession of consequence aligned with or or like that which 0:16:57.160 --> 0:16:59.000 we went through in two thousand seven, eight and nine. No, 0:16:59.200 --> 0:17:02.200 it'll be something much more modest, but it will still 0:17:02.520 --> 0:17:05.000 drive the unemployment rate about five percent before it's done. 0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:08.560 Can make mistake if that always makes mistakes, if that 0:17:08.720 --> 0:17:12.880 is human humans make mistakes. I want to get more 0:17:13.080 --> 0:17:17.720 on your outlook for recession and the markets going forward 0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:20.679 here into Tree. So we're going to continue this conversation 0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:24.920 with Dennis Gartman into the minutes ahead here as Bloomberg 0:17:25.000 --> 0:17:27.800 Daybreak continues. Dennis Gartman is the former publisher of the 0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:31.400 Gartment Letter, now chairman of the University of Akron Endowment 0:17:31.480 --> 0:17:35.160 Investment Committee, head of that conversation. Continuing. Futures are moving 0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:38.520 higher this morning. SMP futures on the rise by sixteen 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:41.720 points down, futures up a hundred twelve. NASTAC futures are 0:17:41.800 --> 0:17:44.919 higher by fifty points. The tenure Treasury is down eleven 0:17:45.000 --> 0:17:48.080 thirty seconds, yield three point five two percent. Yield on 0:17:48.119 --> 0:17:51.840 the two year four point one seven percent. NIMEX crude 0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:54.800 is moving higher by nine tenths per center sixty nine 0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:58.840 cents at seventy four dollars cents a barrel. This is 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:05.080 Bloomberg Markets, headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a 0:18:05.160 --> 0:18:08.159 day at Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Business at and 0:18:08.320 --> 0:18:11.879 at Bloomberg Quick Take. This is a Bloomberg Business flash, 0:18:17.840 --> 0:18:20.960 and I'm Karen Moscow. Global stocks are attempting to recover 0:18:21.080 --> 0:18:23.800 after two weeks of losses sparked back incern that continued 0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:26.920 policy tightening by the Fed and other central banks would 0:18:26.920 --> 0:18:30.320 trigger economic recession and hit profits. We checked the markets 0:18:30.359 --> 0:18:33.000 all day long here at Bloomberg and SNP. Futures are 0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:36.240 up half percent of nineteen points down. Futures have four 0:18:36.320 --> 0:18:38.399 tens of a percent or a hundred thirty eight points 0:18:38.680 --> 0:18:41.520 and as DEEG futures of half percent or sixty three points. 0:18:41.800 --> 0:18:44.119 The decks in Germany's have three quarters of a percent 0:18:44.440 --> 0:18:46.960 ten year treasury down ten thirty seconds. You'll three point 0:18:47.040 --> 0:18:49.320 five two percent yield on the two year four point 0:18:49.400 --> 0:18:52.440 one seven percent, nine max screwed oils of nine tenths 0:18:52.440 --> 0:18:54.840 percent or sixty five cents at seventy four dollars ninety 0:18:54.880 --> 0:18:57.560 four cents and barrel comex school of four tenths percent 0:18:57.680 --> 0:18:59.879 or six dollars ninety cents at eighteen o seven ten 0:19:00.000 --> 0:19:03.280 announced the euro one point six three five against the dollar. 0:19:03.359 --> 0:19:06.000 British found one point to two to three the one 0:19:06.400 --> 0:19:09.119 six point two and bitcoin is up a tenth of 0:19:09.200 --> 0:19:12.080 upper cent. It's at about sixteen thou eight hundred dollars. 0:19:12.359 --> 0:19:14.879 That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's Michael Barrow with 0:19:15.040 --> 0:19:17.480 Moore unless going on around the world. Michael did running, 0:19:17.520 --> 0:19:20.920 Good morning, Karen. The House January six Committee is wrapping 0:19:21.000 --> 0:19:24.520 up his investigation into the violent US Capital riot. At 0:19:24.560 --> 0:19:27.359 the final meetings scheduled for today, the panel is poised 0:19:27.359 --> 0:19:30.960 to recommend that the Justice Department considered criminal charges against 0:19:31.000 --> 0:19:35.520 former President Donald Trump. Authorities in Ukraine's capital, Kievs say 0:19:36.000 --> 0:19:38.600 it's being targeted in a new attack and a critical 0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:42.360 infrastructure point has been hit. In the NFL, the Giants 0:19:42.440 --> 0:19:45.959 beat the Commanders. The Jets and Patriots lost. In the NBA, 0:19:46.119 --> 0:19:48.680 the Knicks and Nets one, the Celtics and Wizards lost 0:19:48.720 --> 0:19:52.080 the Warriors one. In the NHL, the Rangers won and 0:19:52.119 --> 0:19:55.640 they're still partying in Argentina after the team beat France 0:19:55.880 --> 0:19:59.000 to win the World Cup. Global News twenty four hours 0:19:59.080 --> 0:20:01.840 a day on and on Bloomberg Quick Day, powered by 0:20:01.880 --> 0:20:04.240 more than twenties seven under journalist and analysts more than 0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:08.000 twenty countries. Michael barrd this is Bloomberg making What a 0:20:08.080 --> 0:20:10.280 game that was. What a career cap for Lionel MESSI 0:20:10.400 --> 0:20:12.119 thank you for that, Michael. It is coming up to 0:20:12.200 --> 0:20:14.960 five twenty four on Wall Street. I'm Nathan Hagar. This 0:20:15.080 --> 0:20:17.639 is Bloomberg Daybreak and Dennis Gartman is back with us 0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:19.719 now the former publisher of the Gartment Letter, now chair 0:20:19.760 --> 0:20:23.080 of the University of acron Endowment Investment Committee. Dennis, interesting 0:20:23.160 --> 0:20:25.280 to hear in the last segment you're saying that there 0:20:25.320 --> 0:20:29.120 could be a moderate recession. I wonder what's behind that call, 0:20:29.760 --> 0:20:32.120 given that, at least from what I think I heard 0:20:32.160 --> 0:20:35.280 you say the last time around, that the FED could 0:20:35.280 --> 0:20:38.920 be at risk of overtightening into a recession. Well, that's 0:20:38.960 --> 0:20:40.760 going to be the cause of any any recession that 0:20:40.840 --> 0:20:43.960 we see. First of all, the consumers are probably expending 0:20:44.040 --> 0:20:46.200 money right now. It bothers me that I see the 0:20:46.640 --> 0:20:48.919 use of credit cards rising as dramatically as they are, 0:20:49.640 --> 0:20:52.520 and food prices are going up, So I've maintained that 0:20:52.600 --> 0:20:56.280 we're actually funding food with with credit, which I find disturbing. 0:20:56.880 --> 0:21:00.520 So the consumer has uh probably close to tapping out 0:21:00.600 --> 0:21:03.440 his savings. His savings rate has dropped rather dramatically. But 0:21:03.560 --> 0:21:07.360 the most important fundamental that's going to drive the economy 0:21:07.400 --> 0:21:09.640 into recession is the fact that the FETs has moved 0:21:09.800 --> 0:21:13.320 from being aggressively easy for the course of the past 0:21:13.359 --> 0:21:16.240 decade or so to the course of being manifestly tightening. 0:21:16.680 --> 0:21:18.240 And I think that's going to be the driving force. 0:21:18.640 --> 0:21:20.800 We have to remember that FET has promised and they 0:21:20.840 --> 0:21:23.320 should follow through on the promise to reduce the size 0:21:23.359 --> 0:21:25.919 of the balance sheet, which they've taken from nine nine 0:21:26.000 --> 0:21:29.000 hundred billion dollars to nine trillion dollars over the course 0:21:29.040 --> 0:21:32.040 of a decade. They promised to take out nine billion 0:21:32.080 --> 0:21:34.960 dollars a month to drive the balance sheet back to 0:21:35.040 --> 0:21:37.320 four or five billions, four or five trillion dollars over 0:21:37.359 --> 0:21:40.520 the course the next several years. And that's taking the gasoline. 0:21:40.560 --> 0:21:43.720 That's taking the the fuel that has driven the economy, 0:21:43.760 --> 0:21:45.680 and it has driven the stock market, that has driven 0:21:45.760 --> 0:21:48.920 the capital markets for a protracted period of time. It's 0:21:48.960 --> 0:21:52.159 taking that fuel away, and that that alone is enough to, 0:21:52.359 --> 0:21:55.080