Speaker 1: Live from the Bloomberg Interactive Berger Studios. This is Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Daybreak for Monday, December nineteen two. Coming up this hour,
Speaker 1: a new Twitter poll could reshape leadership of the company.
Speaker 1: The January six Committee votes on the legal fate of
Speaker 1: former President Trump. COVID deaths in China come into focus
Speaker 1: as it pivots away from strict policies, and Marcus looked
Speaker 1: to recover from a FED induced skid. How will the
Speaker 1: lengthly end of two in fact Immigrants, States and cities
Speaker 1: plus the largest menora in New York City was lit
Speaker 1: to begin ANAKA By'm Michael barn or I'm John Stadtoward Sports.
Speaker 1: The Giants held on for a big win at Washington,
Speaker 1: the Jets lost in Detroit, and mixed Nets and Rangers
Speaker 1: all one. That's All's training ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak on Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: He Living Free on New York, Bloomberg one, Washington, d C,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg one oh six one, Boston, Bloomberg nine sixties, San Francisco,
Speaker 1: Syrius Exam one nineteen and around the world Old on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio dot Com and via the Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 1: Good Morning, I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. US
Speaker 1: Dock Index futures around the rise this morning, and we
Speaker 1: check the markets all day long here on Bloomberg radios,
Speaker 1: and P futures up about twelve coints down, futures are
Speaker 1: up eighty two and NASDAG futures up thirty seven decks.
Speaker 1: In Germany's up four tenths of upper cent ten. Your
Speaker 1: treasury down eleven thirty seconds, yel three point five two percent,
Speaker 1: and a yield on the two year four point one
Speaker 1: seven percent. Nathan, Karen, We'll have more on markets in
Speaker 1: a moment. First, we begin with more turmoil at Twitter.
Speaker 1: A new poll on the social media platform could determine
Speaker 1: Elon Musk's next role at the company. Bloomberg Steve Rappafort
Speaker 1: joins US Live with the latest. Good morning Steve, Good
Speaker 1: morning Nathan and Karen. So the big question, Elon, You've
Speaker 1: got to let us know. Will you stay or will
Speaker 1: you go? The answer should come next hour when voting
Speaker 1: ends for the poll in which Musk asks whether he
Speaker 1: should step down as Twitter CEO. More than fifteen million
Speaker 1: users voted so far, with the majority saying they want
Speaker 1: Musk out. He pledged to abide by the results. The
Speaker 1: last seven weeks have been full of twists, turns, and
Speaker 1: Dramason's musk took over the platform, leaving some advertisers on Edge.
Speaker 1: Live in New York, I'm Steve Rappaport Bloomberg Daybreak. All right, Steve, thanks.
Speaker 1: We turning to a major headline in politics this morning.
Speaker 1: The House January six Committee votes today on recommendations that
Speaker 1: former President Trump the prosecuted, Bloomberg said. Bachelor reports lawmakers
Speaker 1: are considering a number of charges, among them for obstructing
Speaker 1: an official government proceeding and conspirasuited to fraud the United States.
Speaker 1: Congressman Adam Schiff already saying that Trump's actions are pretty
Speaker 1: much a good match for criminal insurrection charges. This is
Speaker 1: someone who tried to interfere with the Joint Session, even
Speaker 1: inciting a mob to attack the Capitol. If that's not criminal,
Speaker 1: then that I know it is. Recommendation could also come
Speaker 1: from Mark Meadows and Rudy Giuliana. Hearing at one pm
Speaker 1: Wall Street Time in San Francisco. I'm at Baxter Bloomberg Radio. Okay,
Speaker 1: thank you. Meantime, Senator Kirsten Cinema's defection from the Democratic
Speaker 1: Party continues to reverberate across Washington, and now it has
Speaker 1: some asking if Joe Manchon could do the same. The
Speaker 1: West Virginia senator, though, says he remains committed to the
Speaker 1: Democratic Party for now. They know how independent I am.
Speaker 1: The deed does not saddle me to everything the Democrats
Speaker 1: want to do is what's right. I don't think the
Speaker 1: Democrats have all the answers. I don't think the Republicans
Speaker 1: are always wrong and vice versa. I don't look at
Speaker 1: things that way. Senator Mansion made those comments on Face
Speaker 1: the Nation from CBS, which you can hear every Sunday
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Well, let's turn overseas now to Shina, Nathan,
Speaker 1: where the government's response to a COVID outbreak is front
Speaker 1: and center. More than a month after the country saw
Speaker 1: an exponential surge in COVID cases, is reporting minimal deaths
Speaker 1: from the virus. That's calling into question how Beijing is
Speaker 1: changing its approach to COVID, and Bloomberg's John Lou has
Speaker 1: more on that story. Suspicion is growing the China maybe
Speaker 1: undercounting the number of COVID deaths in the country. That's
Speaker 1: after authorities reported to fatalities today the first deaths officially
Speaker 1: attributed to COVID since the country began pivoting away from
Speaker 1: COVID zero in early December. It's also admitted media reports
Speaker 1: of increased activity at crematoriums and funeral homes in Beijing,
Speaker 1: and follows the report by Chinese outlets hishing the authorities
Speaker 1: of substantially narrowed the definition of what a COVID death is.
Speaker 1: All of this is casting further doubt on how reliable
Speaker 1: China's official data is in Beijing. Am Joel lou Bloomberg, daybreak.
Speaker 1: All right, John, thank you. Turning to markets now. Futures
Speaker 1: are higher to begin the week. Assets are still adjusting
Speaker 1: to central bank rhetoric. We saw the SMP five and
Speaker 1: last week two percent lower after hawk is remarks from
Speaker 1: the Fed and European Central Bank. Former Treasury Secretary Larry
Speaker 1: Somers tells us even though markets took a hit, he
Speaker 1: has confidence in FED Chair J. Powell. The Chairman is
Speaker 1: in about the right place. He's recognizing that we can't
Speaker 1: forecast the economy with precision. He's recognizing that it would
Speaker 1: be a terrible error if we were to fail to
Speaker 1: stop inflation in this episode, Larry Summer says the FED
Speaker 1: should still be concerned with challenging decisions on the horizon.
Speaker 1: The former Treasury secretary was a guest on Bloomberg's Wall
Speaker 1: Street Week, heard every weekend on Bloomberg Radio and television.
Speaker 1: Well rhetoric from the Fed also reverberated across Asia. Overnight,
Speaker 1: Nathan and stocks in the regions slid as type policy
Speaker 1: stoked fears of a global recession. Bloomberg Daybreak Asia anchor
Speaker 1: Brian Curtis has more. Asian stocks declined as the Fed
Speaker 1: hammered home it's committed to raising interest rates. The end
Speaker 1: extended gains for a second day. The yield on Japan's
Speaker 1: five year note rose to the highest in seven years.
Speaker 1: A Kyoto report said Japan's Prime minister might allow more
Speaker 1: flexibility and monetary policy. A top government spokesman denied the report.
Speaker 1: The dollar was weaker. Brian Curtis, Bloomberg day Break. Okay, Brian,
Speaker 1: thank you. Back here in the US, there's more economic
Speaker 1: data to digest this week. Housing data takes center stage
Speaker 1: on the week's agenda. Bloomberg's viny Dell Judas has a preview.
Speaker 1: We'll get data on US builder confidence today, housing starts tomorrow,
Speaker 1: existing home sales Wednesday, and new home sales Friday. The
Speaker 1: builder confidence data provide a perfect illustration of US market conditions.
Speaker 1: Sentiment has been falling since the start of the year.
Speaker 1: The longest structure of the clients and data back to
Speaker 1: his interest rates rise altso one. This week's US agenda
Speaker 1: data on consumer confidence and come and spending manufacturing in
Speaker 1: the final revision of third quarter GDP data fill Judas
Speaker 1: Bloomberg day break right Annie, thank you Bill. Turning to
Speaker 1: oil now, we're seeing swings between gains and losses as
Speaker 1: morning crude rose at the week's open following a pledge
Speaker 1: from China to revive consumption. There's also news of a
Speaker 1: plan from the Biden administration to begin refilling the nation's
Speaker 1: strategic reserves. Checking prices right now now, I'm ex scrude
Speaker 1: oil up eight tens of upper set straight ahead, your
Speaker 1: latest local headlines, plus a check of sports, and this
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg, Thank you Carrot. It is now thirty one
Speaker 1: degrees in Central Park. I mean brisk today, mostly sunny, breezy,
Speaker 1: though the high only near forty degrees. We get back
Speaker 1: down to the thirties tonight taped out to look at
Speaker 1: some of the other stories making news in New York
Speaker 1: and around the world. So that we're joined by Bloomberg,
Speaker 1: spikel bar Good morning, Michael, Good morning, Nathan. The Texas
Speaker 1: town of El Paso, on the border has declared a
Speaker 1: state of emergency fearing an influx of migrants. This week,
Speaker 1: when a court ordered forces the Biden administration to lift
Speaker 1: Titled forty two, the Trump era provision returned to all
Speaker 1: asylum seekers back to Mexico, forcing them to wait there
Speaker 1: while their asylum requests are processed. Texas Governor Greg Abbott
Speaker 1: says there will be total chaos at the southern border
Speaker 1: if Title forty two is lifted as planned. Governor Rabbit
Speaker 1: accused President Biden of having open border policies, policies he
Speaker 1: says militias actors are taking advantage of it is known
Speaker 1: by the cartels have sophisticate information. Whether or not the
Speaker 1: Bid administration is going to enforce the immigration laws or
Speaker 1: not is known across the world, but most importantly known
Speaker 1: among the cartels. Meanwhile, Democratic Senator Alex Padilla of California
Speaker 1: pushed back against what he called republican rhetoric around the
Speaker 1: expected expiration of Title forty two. We're in a much
Speaker 1: different place when it comes to COVID today than we
Speaker 1: were to almost three years ago, so it's pastime for
Speaker 1: a Title forty two to be gun. Senator Padilla, who
Speaker 1: chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee's Immigration, Citizenship and Border Safety Subcommittee,
Speaker 1: and Governor Abbott spoke on ABC S this week, which
Speaker 1: can be heard Sundays on Bloomberd. Border State leaders aren't
Speaker 1: the only lawmakers sounding the alarm about the expiration of
Speaker 1: Title forty two. In New York City, more busses transporting
Speaker 1: asylum seekers are expected to arrive today. Mayor Adams is
Speaker 1: asking for a new round of federal and state help.
Speaker 1: Dozens of people were injured after a flight headed for
Speaker 1: Hawai he hit severe turbulence. Flight thirty five from Phoenix
Speaker 1: to Honolulu was thirty minutes outside of its destination when
Speaker 1: the incident happened. The plane was carrying two hundred eighty
Speaker 1: eight passengers and crew. Sunday was the first night of Hanukkah,
Speaker 1: and Jewish communities across the US are celebrating by lighting minoras.
Speaker 1: In Brooklyn, thousands attended to witness one of the city's
Speaker 1: largest minors to mark the season. Global News twenty four
Speaker 1: hours a day on air and on Bloomberg Quick Take,
Speaker 1: powered by more than twenty seven hundred journalist analysts in
Speaker 1: more than a hundred twenty countries. How Michael Bart, this
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Nather. Thank you, Michael, time of the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Sports Update, brought to you by twice State Auty. For that,
Speaker 1: we bring in John stash Are. Good morning, John, Good morning.
Speaker 1: And Giants game in Washington so big it was moved
Speaker 1: into prime time. Giants who lost their last eleven night games.
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones was all and nine came in windless in
Speaker 1: their last four. Commanders had only lost one of their
Speaker 1: last eight. They're the only team to have beaten the Eagles.
Speaker 1: But the Giants took the lead thanks to a rookie
Speaker 1: takes the snap back to fill. He's the cruncher, sack
Speaker 1: my Tibot on the polls loose on the ground, scooped
Speaker 1: up in the end zone for a touchdown on Tibodeau
Speaker 1: with the sack before stuck, and then the touchdown. He
Speaker 1: completes the trifecta w f A and Tibodau was all
Speaker 1: over the field. All night. The Giants won twenty to twelve.
Speaker 1: They held on at the end. Commanders thought they had
Speaker 1: a TV to get there with him tube. It was
Speaker 1: nullified by a penalty and the Giants now in much
Speaker 1: better shape to make the playoffs. The Jets are not costly.
Speaker 1: Seventeen home lost to a red hot Detroit. Zack Wilson
Speaker 1: back is the starting QB for the injured Mike White.
Speaker 1: Wilson played fairly well, but the Lions won on a
Speaker 1: late fifty one yard passed play on a fourth and
Speaker 1: one Detroits one six to the last seven. Two of
Speaker 1: those wins at midlife next Nets and Rangers all continue
Speaker 1: their winning streaks seven or ow for the next at
Speaker 1: Indiana finished on an eleven to two run and one
Speaker 1: one O nine one oh six. Jalen Brown Brupton scored
Speaker 1: thirty in Detroit, Kevin Ran scored forty three. He had
Speaker 1: twenty six just in the third quarter. In the next one,
Speaker 1: Brooklyn's one its last six seven straight wins with the
Speaker 1: Rangers seven one of Chicago with seven different Ranger goal scorers.
Speaker 1: World Cup final builders Lionel Messi against Gillion and Boffi
Speaker 1: together they put seven balls into the net five on
Speaker 1: penalty kicks, Messi and Argentina beat France four three and
Speaker 1: what summer calling the most exciting soccer game ever John
Speaker 1: Dashaward Bloomberg Sports Nathan was fun to watch, that's for sure.
Speaker 1: Thank you, John, and Bloomberg Sports was brought to you
Speaker 1: by Autie. Don't let someone else drive off in the
Speaker 1: outie model you've always wanted. Visit your local try state
Speaker 1: autie dealer to get behind the wheel of yours today,
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Speaker 1: futures right now up ten points, Stole futures up seventy two.
Speaker 1: Nastack futures are highed by thirty five points ten Your
Speaker 1: treasuries down eleven thirty seconds, bringing the yield up on
Speaker 1: the benchmark to three point five two per cent. Live
Speaker 1: from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,
Speaker 1: Boston to Washington, d C. Nationwide on Sirius, XAMP, the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business App, and Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.
Speaker 1: Good morning, I'm Nathan Hagar. Just two trading weeks left
Speaker 1: in two Let's get you started on this one. We're
Speaker 1: joined now by Dennis Gartman, the former publisher of the
Speaker 1: Gartment Letter who now shares the University of Akron Endowment
Speaker 1: Investment Committee. Dennis, good Morning. Looks like futures are trying
Speaker 1: to claw back some of the losses we've seen over
Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks now following a parade of
Speaker 1: hawkish policy and rhetoric from central banks around the world.
Speaker 1: Does this relief rally have any legs for you? I
Speaker 1: think not, Nathan. I think this relief rally is probably
Speaker 1: run its course of action. I kind of take uh.
Speaker 1: I look at technicals rather substantively over the course of
Speaker 1: my career, and one of the things I pay attention
Speaker 1: to is outside reversal days and more importantly outside reversal
Speaker 1: weeks periods of time when you make a new higher
Speaker 1: or new low and then close higher or lower, taking
Speaker 1: out the previous days of previous weeks range. And we've
Speaker 1: done that in a weekly reversal in the in the SMP,
Speaker 1: we've done that in a weekly reversal in the DOUBT,
Speaker 1: we've done that in a weekly reversal now in the
Speaker 1: NASTAC So I think that last week will mark the
Speaker 1: highest for a protracted period of time. I think the
Speaker 1: the autumnal rally has run its course, and I think
Speaker 1: that the hawk is views, manifest by the Federal Reserve Bank,
Speaker 1: manifest by the Bank of England, manifest by the monetary
Speaker 1: authorities essentially around the world, are going to have a
Speaker 1: delitarious impact upon the equity prices going forward. So take
Speaker 1: a look at the fact that that the SMP, for example,
Speaker 1: made a side. Last January, I had towards forty six
Speaker 1: forty six hundred, The next high was forty four hundred,
Speaker 1: the next high was forty three hundred, and last week
Speaker 1: we got to forty two hundred, each highest and progressively
Speaker 1: lower since the start of the year. Each low has
Speaker 1: been progressively lower since the start of the year, and
Speaker 1: then we had an outside of reversal week last week.
Speaker 1: So given the fact that we've got monetary authorities airring
Speaker 1: upon the side of hawkishness and the technicals are now
Speaker 1: quite manifestly bearished, I think it's far better to err
Speaker 1: upon the side of being barished and reducing one's exposure
Speaker 1: over the course of next several weeks. I know you've
Speaker 1: been calling this a bear market pretty much all year long,
Speaker 1: since the beginning of the year, as we head into
Speaker 1: three how much longer do you expect this bear market
Speaker 1: to continue? The best the one can do is get
Speaker 1: the trend right, and I think the trend is down.
Speaker 1: Getting both trend and time right is almost, It's not almost,
Speaker 1: it's an impossible task. Let's simply say that the bear
Speaker 1: market has been has been excellent since the first week
Speaker 1: of January this year. As I just said, each lowers
Speaker 1: been lower, each high has been lower, and that that
Speaker 1: that trend will probably continue right this down until it stops.
Speaker 1: I think we'll take out the lows of made in
Speaker 1: October in the not two distant future, and they take
Speaker 1: a month or two to do so. And the only benefit,
Speaker 1: the only bullish circumstance prevailing, is the can we lose
Speaker 1: two of the most hawkish voting members of the f
Speaker 1: MC in February, Mrs ms Messer and Ms George from
Speaker 1: Cleveland from Kansas City, and we replace them with a
Speaker 1: couple of Dove voters in the f O m C.
Speaker 1: But that's not until February next year. In February is
Speaker 1: as far as I'm concerned, as a lifetime away. Then
Speaker 1: do you expect that the commentary that we got last
Speaker 1: week from the FED Chairman J. Powell, that rates will
Speaker 1: stay higher for longer? Is malleable? Is that something that
Speaker 1: the Fed could shake away from Uh? Depending on how
Speaker 1: things turn out in twenty three, Well, we'll see if
Speaker 1: we If we get really ugly economic data points coming
Speaker 1: out in January and February, then they said, might might change.
Speaker 1: But if I've learned anything in forty five years of
Speaker 1: being involved in the markets and watching the Federal Reserve
Speaker 1: Bank Act, it's that once the FED changes monetary policy,
Speaker 1: when it moves from easing to tightening, or from tightening
Speaker 1: to easing, it takes it's much farther and takes them
Speaker 1: for a much longer period of time than even the
Speaker 1: most radical among us wants to believe. So I think
Speaker 1: that the potential for the Fed to change its policies,
Speaker 1: given the dramatic use of language that we saw last week,
Speaker 1: or you couldn't miss, You couldn't you could not misunderstand
Speaker 1: what Mr Powell was talking about. He made it abundantly
Speaker 1: clear that he has no intention of moving towards easier
Speaker 1: of pivoting on rates for a protracted period of time.
Speaker 1: So it's going to be at least until four until
Speaker 1: we have any opportunity to see the FED change monetary
Speaker 1: policy back from being tightening to two easing. Anybody who
Speaker 1: thinks that that he's going to change is I think
Speaker 1: sadly wrong. Got about a minute left here in this segment,
Speaker 1: Dennis is the FED is steering itself toward a policy
Speaker 1: mistake here with this kind of tightening. The Fed always
Speaker 1: makes mistakes. They are always they tightened too far. They
Speaker 1: eased too far. They're probably gonna tighten too far. They'll
Speaker 1: probably tighten us into a recession. Will there be a
Speaker 1: recession of consequence aligned with or or like that which
Speaker 1: we went through in two thousand seven, eight and nine. No,
Speaker 1: it'll be something much more modest, but it will still
Speaker 1: drive the unemployment rate about five percent before it's done.
Speaker 1: Can make mistake if that always makes mistakes, if that
Speaker 1: is human humans make mistakes. I want to get more
Speaker 1: on your outlook for recession and the markets going forward
Speaker 1: here into Tree. So we're going to continue this conversation
Speaker 1: with Dennis Gartman into the minutes ahead here as Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Daybreak continues. Dennis Gartman is the former publisher of the
Speaker 1: Gartment Letter, now chairman of the University of Akron Endowment
Speaker 1: Investment Committee, head of that conversation. Continuing. Futures are moving
Speaker 1: higher this morning. SMP futures on the rise by sixteen
Speaker 1: points down, futures up a hundred twelve. NASTAC futures are
Speaker 1: higher by fifty points. The tenure Treasury is down eleven
Speaker 1: thirty seconds, yield three point five two percent. Yield on
Speaker 1: the two year four point one seven percent. NIMEX crude
Speaker 1: is moving higher by nine tenths per center sixty nine
Speaker 1: cents at seventy four dollars cents a barrel. This is
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets, headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a
Speaker 1: day at Bloomberg dot com, the Bloomberg Business at and
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg Quick Take. This is a Bloomberg Business flash,
Speaker 1: and I'm Karen Moscow. Global stocks are attempting to recover
Speaker 1: after two weeks of losses sparked back incern that continued
Speaker 1: policy tightening by the Fed and other central banks would
Speaker 1: trigger economic recession and hit profits. We checked the markets
Speaker 1: all day long here at Bloomberg and SNP. Futures are
Speaker 1: up half percent of nineteen points down. Futures have four
Speaker 1: tens of a percent or a hundred thirty eight points
Speaker 1: and as DEEG futures of half percent or sixty three points.
Speaker 1: The decks in Germany's have three quarters of a percent
Speaker 1: ten year treasury down ten thirty seconds. You'll three point
Speaker 1: five two percent yield on the two year four point
Speaker 1: one seven percent, nine max screwed oils of nine tenths
Speaker 1: percent or sixty five cents at seventy four dollars ninety
Speaker 1: four cents and barrel comex school of four tenths percent
Speaker 1: or six dollars ninety cents at eighteen o seven ten
Speaker 1: announced the euro one point six three five against the dollar.
Speaker 1: British found one point to two to three the one
Speaker 1: six point two and bitcoin is up a tenth of
Speaker 1: upper cent. It's at about sixteen thou eight hundred dollars.
Speaker 1: That's a Bloomberg business flash. Now here's Michael Barrow with
Speaker 1: Moore unless going on around the world. Michael did running,
Speaker 1: Good morning, Karen. The House January six Committee is wrapping
Speaker 1: up his investigation into the violent US Capital riot. At
Speaker 1: the final meetings scheduled for today, the panel is poised
Speaker 1: to recommend that the Justice Department considered criminal charges against
Speaker 1: former President Donald Trump. Authorities in Ukraine's capital, Kievs say
Speaker 1: it's being targeted in a new attack and a critical
Speaker 1: infrastructure point has been hit. In the NFL, the Giants
Speaker 1: beat the Commanders. The Jets and Patriots lost. In the NBA,
Speaker 1: the Knicks and Nets one, the Celtics and Wizards lost
Speaker 1: the Warriors one. In the NHL, the Rangers won and
Speaker 1: they're still partying in Argentina after the team beat France
Speaker 1: to win the World Cup. Global News twenty four hours
Speaker 1: a day on and on Bloomberg Quick Day, powered by
Speaker 1: more than twenties seven under journalist and analysts more than
Speaker 1: twenty countries. Michael barrd this is Bloomberg making What a
Speaker 1: game that was. What a career cap for Lionel MESSI
Speaker 1: thank you for that, Michael. It is coming up to
Speaker 1: five twenty four on Wall Street. I'm Nathan Hagar. This
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Daybreak and Dennis Gartman is back with us
Speaker 1: now the former publisher of the Gartment Letter, now chair
Speaker 1: of the University of acron Endowment Investment Committee. Dennis, interesting
Speaker 1: to hear in the last segment you're saying that there
Speaker 1: could be a moderate recession. I wonder what's behind that call,
Speaker 1: given that, at least from what I think I heard
Speaker 1: you say the last time around, that the FED could
Speaker 1: be at risk of overtightening into a recession. Well, that's
Speaker 1: going to be the cause of any any recession that
Speaker 1: we see. First of all, the consumers are probably expending
Speaker 1: money right now. It bothers me that I see the
Speaker 1: use of credit cards rising as dramatically as they are,
Speaker 1: and food prices are going up, So I've maintained that
Speaker 1: we're actually funding food with with credit, which I find disturbing.
Speaker 1: So the consumer has uh probably close to tapping out
Speaker 1: his savings. His savings rate has dropped rather dramatically. But
Speaker 1: the most important fundamental that's going to drive the economy
Speaker 1: into recession is the fact that the FETs has moved
Speaker 1: from being aggressively easy for the course of the past
Speaker 1: decade or so to the course of being manifestly tightening.
Speaker 1: And I think that's going to be the driving force.
Speaker 1: We have to remember that FET has promised and they
Speaker 1: should follow through on the promise to reduce the size
Speaker 1: of the balance sheet, which they've taken from nine nine
Speaker 1: hundred billion dollars to nine trillion dollars over the course
Speaker 1: of a decade. They promised to take out nine billion
Speaker 1: dollars a month to drive the balance sheet back to
Speaker 1: four or five billions, four or five trillion dollars over
Speaker 1: the course the next several years. And that's taking the gasoline.
Speaker 1: That's taking the the fuel that has driven the economy,
Speaker 1: and it has driven the stock market, that has driven
Speaker 1: the capital markets for a protracted period of time. It's
Speaker 1: taking that fuel away, and that that alone is enough to,
Speaker 1: I think, to put us into recession. So watch housing prices.
Speaker 1: Housing prices have begun to weaken. Watch on watch used
Speaker 1: car prices. They've clearly begun to weekend. Watch retail sales,
Speaker 1: they've begun to weekend. I think all the signs are
Speaker 1: pointing to a recession, and I think it's the fact
Speaker 1: that the FET is going to be tightening monetary policy
Speaker 1: that will be the driving force to that point. We
Speaker 1: just got a note this morning from another bear on
Speaker 1: Wall Street, Mike Wilson and Morgan Stanley, warning of an
Speaker 1: earnings recession that could be similar to what happened during
Speaker 1: the global financial crisis years in two thousand and eight
Speaker 1: and nine, and warning that the market isn't fully pricing
Speaker 1: that in is that your view as well. I think
Speaker 1: that's what happens during recessions. I think that's just the
Speaker 1: the the end result of recessionary circumstances that decline in earnings,
Speaker 1: and I think that that will drive the price earnings
Speaker 1: multiple back from seventeen or eighteen down to fourteen, fifteen
Speaker 1: or sixteen, and that's what will drive the equity prices
Speaker 1: lower again. As I said earlier than in my earlier comments,
Speaker 1: one of the things that I watched in the stock
Speaker 1: market more than anything else is is technical circumstances. And
Speaker 1: technically you had an outside reversal week, which is a
Speaker 1: rare event, and that marks to me that that marks
Speaker 1: the high of the October to mid December a rally
Speaker 1: in the equities market. Be careful. I think we make
Speaker 1: new lows. I think we take out October's lows, probably
Speaker 1: early in the turn after the turn of the year.
Speaker 1: So again, if you're long of equities, were just the
Speaker 1: size of the exposure. If you have no equities, you're
Speaker 1: probably in the right place. And I think the recession
Speaker 1: is coming. It will be much more moderate than we
Speaker 1: went to in two thousand seven, eight and nine. But
Speaker 1: the fact the vet ist tightening monetary policy will be
Speaker 1: the driving economic force. We'll leave it there for now.
Speaker 1: A bearish view continuing from Dennis Gartment heading into the holidays.
Speaker 1: Hope it is a good holiday season for you. If
Speaker 1: we don't speak before then. Dennis Gartman, former publisher of
Speaker 1: the Gartment Letter, now chairman of the University of Akron
Speaker 1: Endowment Investment Committee. Right now, futures are moving higher ahead
Speaker 1: of this morning session. SMP futures are up sixteen points, now,
Speaker 1: futures up a hundred fifteen, and nastic futures are higher
Speaker 1: by fifty points. We'll get this morning's top stories, local headlines,
Speaker 1: and a fuller check of markets just ahead. First, Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Meteorologist Rob Carolyn with a look at the weather forecast.
Speaker 1: I pressure over the Tennessee Rifford Valley this morning is
Speaker 1: going to ensure that the Tri state area is sunny
Speaker 1: through Wednesday. Will have lots of sunshine today. They'll be breezy.
Speaker 1: Temperatures this saff noon up close to forty Tonight, clear skies,
Speaker 1: low of thirty in the city. It'll fall back into
Speaker 1: the twenties and the suburbs sunny weather for tomorrow. Hins
Speaker 1: will be up around forty. It will be partly to
Speaker 1: mostly sunny Wednesday, and we're back near forty. I'm Rob
Speaker 1: Carolvin with your three day forecast. I'm Bloomberg eleven three
Speaker 1: How broadcasting live from the Bloomberg Interactive Broker's studio in
Speaker 1: New York, Bloomberg E Loving Freed to Washington, d C, Bloomberg,
Speaker 1: on to Boston, Bloomberg one six one do San Francisco
Speaker 1: Bloomberg and M sixty to the country sirius XM chto
Speaker 1: one nine and around the globe, the Bloomberg Business app
Speaker 1: and Bloomberg Radio dot Com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. It's
Speaker 1: coming up to five thirty on Wall Street. Good morning,
Speaker 1: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. We are a
Speaker 1: just about four hours away from the open of US training.
Speaker 1: Let's get you up to date on the news you
Speaker 1: need to know at this hour, and we begin with
Speaker 1: more turmoil at Twitter. A new poll on the social
Speaker 1: media platform could determine Elon Musk's future at the company Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: Steve Rappaport joins US live with the latest on that story. Steve,
Speaker 1: good morning, Good morning, Karen, and Nathan voting is expected
Speaker 1: to end in about an hour for the poll in
Speaker 1: which Elon Musk asks users to decide whether he should
Speaker 1: step down as CEO of the platform. With more than
Speaker 1: sixteen million votes cast, fifty two percent of respondents want
Speaker 1: him gone, but pro Musk supporters have narrowed the gap
Speaker 1: in the last few hours. Musk pledge to abide by
Speaker 1: the results of the poll he created, putting his vision
Speaker 1: of Twitter as a platform for the people. For the
Speaker 1: ultimate test. Live in New York, I'm Steve Rappaport, Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Day Break. Okay, Steve, Thanks, turning to politics this morning.
Speaker 1: The House January six committee votes on recommendations today whether
Speaker 1: former President Donald Trump should be prosecuted on a number
Speaker 1: of counts, including obstructing an official government proceeding and conspiracy
Speaker 1: to the fraud the United States. Congressman Adam Shift says
Speaker 1: the former president's actions could also match criminal insurrection charges.
Speaker 1: This is someone who tried to interfere with the Joint Session,
Speaker 1: even inciting a mob to attack the Capitol. If that's
Speaker 1: not criminal, then I don't know what it is. Democratic
Speaker 1: Congressman Adam Shift tells CNN the committee has focused primarily
Speaker 1: on charges where there is the strongest evidence. Well, turning
Speaker 1: overseas to China right now, Nathan, the government's response to
Speaker 1: a COVID outbreak is front and center. More than a
Speaker 1: month after the country saw an exponential surge in COVID cases,
Speaker 1: it's reporting minimal deaths from the virus just to today.
Speaker 1: That's calling into question how Beijing is changing its approach
Speaker 1: at COVID and whether it's under counting fatalities. Now. The
Speaker 1: market's Karen, where futures are pointed higher this morning to
Speaker 1: begin the week, assets are still pricing. Central Bank rhetoric
Speaker 1: SMP five ended last week two percent lower after hawk
Speaker 1: ish remarks from the FED in the European Central Bank,
Speaker 1: Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summer says, even though markets took
Speaker 1: a hit, he has confidence in FED chair J. Powell.
Speaker 1: The broad picture is where it was. I've been gratified
Speaker 1: to see the ways in which the FED has caught up,
Speaker 1: but they've got very challenging judgments to make going forward.
Speaker 1: Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers was a guest on Bloomberg's
Speaker 1: Wall Street Week heard every weekend on Bloomberg Radio and television. Well,
Speaker 1: turning to oil now, Nathan, we're seeing swings between gains
Speaker 1: and losses. This morning. Crewe rose at the week's open
Speaker 1: following a plant from China to revave consumption. There's also
Speaker 1: news of a plan from the Biden administration to begin
Speaker 1: refilling the nation's strategic reserves. Checking prices right now, nine next,
Speaker 1: Screwed oil is up one percent or seventy five cents
Speaker 1: at seventy five four cents of barrel. Brent is up
Speaker 1: eight tens percent. It's at seventy nine dollars sixty eight cents.
Speaker 1: S ANDP Future is up seventeen points this morning, or
Speaker 1: up four tenths of upper cent. And as straight ahead,
Speaker 1: we have your latest local headlines, plus a check of sports.
Speaker 1: And this is Bloomberg Excaring. It's five thirty one on
Speaker 1: Wall Street and Michael Bars here with what's going on
Speaker 1: in New York and around the world. Good morning, you
Speaker 1: might call Good morning, Nathan. The Texas border town of
Speaker 1: El Paso as declared a state of emergency fearing an
Speaker 1: influx of migrants this week when a court order forces
Speaker 1: the Biden administration to lift Title forty two, the Trump
Speaker 1: era provision returned all asylum seekers back to Mexico, forcing
Speaker 1: them to wait there while their asylum requests are processed.
Speaker 1: Texas Governor Greg Abbott says there will be total chaos
Speaker 1: at the southern border if Title forty two is lifted
Speaker 1: as planned. Governor Rabbit defended the top approach he's taken
Speaker 1: to border security, including the bussing of more than fourteen
Speaker 1: thousand migrants from Texas to so called sanctuary cities like
Speaker 1: New York, d C. And Chicago. I removed them to
Speaker 1: locations that self identified as sanctuary cities that have the
Speaker 1: capability and the desire to help out these migrants, and
Speaker 1: so that's exactly what's taking place. Meanwhile, Democratic Senator Alex
Speaker 1: Padilla of California pushed back against what he called Republican
Speaker 1: rhetoric around the expected expiration of Title forty two. For
Speaker 1: all the Republican rhetoric about chaos at the border, open words, etcetera.
Speaker 1: Number One, they have yet to come forward with a
Speaker 1: plan of how to better handle the scenario. Number two,
Speaker 1: they have not been willing to commit the additional resources
Speaker 1: that the apartments and agencies say that they need to
Speaker 1: handle this big influx. Senator Bardiya and Governor Abbott spoke
Speaker 1: on ABC's This week, which can be heard Sundays on Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: Dozens of people were injured after a flight headed for
Speaker 1: Hawaii hit severe turbulence. Like five from Phoenix to Honolulu
Speaker 1: was thirty minutes outside of its destination when the incident happened.
Speaker 1: Sunday was the first night of Hanakah, and Jewish communities
Speaker 1: across the US are celebrating by lighting manoras. In Brooklyn,
Speaker 1: thousands attended to witness one of the city's largest minorahs
Speaker 1: to mark the season. Global News twenty four hours a
Speaker 1: day on here end on Bloomberg. Quick Take power by
Speaker 1: more than twenty seven hundred journalists analysts more than a
Speaker 1: hundred twenty countries. Michael barn this is Bloomberg Naths. Michael,
Speaker 1: thank you all Street time for the Bloomberg Sports update,
Speaker 1: brought to you by Tri stayed out of Here's John Stshow.
Speaker 1: All right, Nathan. Three weeks to go the NFL regular season,
Speaker 1: Giants and Jets both hoping to be wild card playoff teams.
Speaker 1: The Giants in much better shape they want At Washington
Speaker 1: twenty to twelve. Daniel Jones finally winning in prime time.
Speaker 1: He'd been over a ninth sta kuon Barkley scored a
Speaker 1: TV had some big runs in the fourth quarter of
Speaker 1: the defense held the Commanders the only one TV Washington
Speaker 1: had one. It thought final seconds we got wiped out
Speaker 1: by a penalty. If the season ended now, Giants would
Speaker 1: be the sixth scene. Washington would also get in as
Speaker 1: the seven. The Jets on the outside looking in at MetLife.
Speaker 1: They took their first leave in less than five minutes
Speaker 1: to go under two minutes Laugh Detroit, fourth and one
Speaker 1: at midfield center justin jackson on back, Off's gonna throw
Speaker 1: it back and looking growth wide open up side clock
Speaker 1: right with the to the thirty crock Rade twenty five
Speaker 1: Brock Grade twenty Cook bracketa can took five years and
Speaker 1: touchdown Detroit lionell My one yard got the Crock ride
Speaker 1: the Lions to pack in front line radio the call
Speaker 1: the Jets Greg's air line missed the game time fifty
Speaker 1: eight yard field goal final played Detroit one seventeen. Jets
Speaker 1: third straight loss. They dropped to five hundred a while
Speaker 1: the NFL weekend that amazing comeback Saturday by Minnesota. Jacksonville
Speaker 1: came from seventeen down and upset Dallas on a pick
Speaker 1: six in overtime. The Patriots and Raiders were headed for
Speaker 1: o t until New England started laterally, like teams do
Speaker 1: when they are trailing, the game was tied in Las
Speaker 1: Vegas one running, they botched lateral back for a TV
Speaker 1: Nicks netson Rangers all one on the road. Winning streaks
Speaker 1: continue Nixon Rangers seventh straight, the Nets six in a row.
Speaker 1: John Stashellard bloom Group Sports brought to buy out. You
Speaker 1: don't let someone else drive off in the Audi model.
Speaker 1: You've always wanted to visit your local Try and State
Speaker 1: autie dealer to get behind the wheel of yours today,
Speaker 1: or visit autie Offers dot com for more information on
Speaker 1: wall streets. Time for the Tri State Business Report. For that,
Speaker 1: here's Bloomberg's cory. Nine of this year's top ten residential
Speaker 1: sales in New York City occurred in the first half
Speaker 1: of two According to data from broker Donna Olshan, who
Speaker 1: publishes a weekly luxury market report, the slowdown in super
Speaker 1: high end sales over the past six months could be
Speaker 1: an indication that there's further pain to come. The New
Speaker 1: York Knicks and New York or Nowhere are continuing their
Speaker 1: partnership the team and the streetwear Company are joining forces
Speaker 1: for a new genderless apparel collection of hoodies, t shirts, sweatpants,
Speaker 1: tote bags, socks, and other accessories, blending the Knicks and
Speaker 1: New York are Nowhere logos. The Fairity brand will open
Speaker 1: a flagship store in New York this week at Madison
Speaker 1: Avenue between eighties six and eighty seven Streets. That marks
Speaker 1: the brand's seventh unit in the city. Thirty square foot
Speaker 1: store will also include a brand run coffee shop that
Speaker 1: your Bloomberg Drying Fade business report. I'm ed Gory, Thank
Speaker 1: you Ed. It is five thirty six on Wall Street.
Speaker 1: The following is an editorial from Bloomberg Opinion. This editorial
Speaker 1: was written by the Bloomberg Editorial Board. SEC chair Gary
Speaker 1: Gensler has embarked on an ambitious reform of stock trading,
Speaker 1: which is almost certain to put his agency at odds
Speaker 1: with market participants. Gensler is concerned about what he sees
Speaker 1: as an unfairly fragmented market, and the SEC is proposing
Speaker 1: a whole suite of reforms aimed at reuniting it. Not Surprisingly,
Speaker 1: many financial firms are opposed to the changes, which have
Speaker 1: been called the most sweeping in more than a decade
Speaker 1: and are inclined to fight back. Whether the proposals will
Speaker 1: ultimately benefit anyone is unclear. What certain is that the
Speaker 1: reforms will require a lot of sec resources and a
Speaker 1: lot of political will to get to the finish line.
Speaker 1: Weighing the costs against the uncertain benefits, one struggles to
Speaker 1: see how it's worth it. This editorial was written by
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Editorial Board. For more Bloomberg opinion, please go
Speaker 1: to Bloomberg dot com, slash of pinion or O P
Speaker 1: I N go on the Bloomberg terminal. These has been
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion, and you can hear Bloomberg opinion editorials every weekday.
Speaker 1: At this time, terminal customers can read more at O
Speaker 1: P I n go. Right now, SMP futures are higher
Speaker 1: by sixteen points, staff futures up a hundred fourteen and
Speaker 1: NASTACK futures are higher by fifty four points. The ten
Speaker 1: your treasuries down ten thirty seconds, yield three point five
Speaker 1: one percent yield on the two year four point one
Speaker 1: seven percent. NIMEX scruge moving higher this morning, up two
Speaker 1: thirds of one percent, or forty nine cents higher at
Speaker 1: seventy four dollars seventy eight cents of barrel comics. Gold
Speaker 1: is up a third of one percent, or six dollars
Speaker 1: eighteen oh six twenty for an ounce of gold. The
Speaker 1: euro one point zero six one six against the dollar,
Speaker 1: the en one thirty six point zero eight Bitcoin up
Speaker 1: a tenth percent at sixteen thousand, seven hundred seventy dollars up. Next,
Speaker 1: a conversation with former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers on the
Speaker 1: path of head for inflation and the FED after a
Speaker 1: hawk ish week for global central banks. This is Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Markets headlines and breaking news twenty four hours a day
Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Business Outland at Bloomberg Quicktape.
Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow.
Speaker 1: And global stocks are attempting to recover after two weeks
Speaker 1: of losses sparked back concerns that continued policy tightening by
Speaker 1: the FED and of their central banks but trigger economic
Speaker 1: recession and hit companies profits In Europe. Gains in the
Speaker 1: stock six hundred are being led by energy and miners.
Speaker 1: After Chinese leaders pledged to revive consumption and support the
Speaker 1: private sector and we check the markets all day long
Speaker 1: here at Bloomberg S ANDP Future is up eighteen points
Speaker 1: this morning, up half percent of futures, up a third
Speaker 1: of upper center a hundred twenty three points, and nazdec
Speaker 1: future is up half percent or sixty one points. The
Speaker 1: decks in Germany's up seven tenths of uppercent, CAC in
Speaker 1: Paris up eight tens of upper cent, and the foot
Speaker 1: see one hundred up half percent in Japan fell one
Speaker 1: point one percent ten Your treasury down ten thirty seconds.
Speaker 1: You're three point five one percent. That yield on the
Speaker 1: two year four point one seven percent. NIME ex Scrude
Speaker 1: oil is up seven tenths percent or forty nine cents
Speaker 1: at seventy four dollars, seventy eight cents of barrel call
Speaker 1: mex school the third of upper cent or six dollars
Speaker 1: ten cents at eighteen o six thirty announced. The euro
Speaker 1: one point six one nine against the dollar, British found
Speaker 1: one point two to one four and again one thirties
Speaker 1: six point oh seven. Bitcoin is up about two tenths
Speaker 1: percent at about sixteen thousand, eight hundred dollars, and that's
Speaker 1: a Bloomberg business flash now here's Michael Barre with more
Speaker 1: on what's going on around the world. Michael Hearin, thank
Speaker 1: you very much. The House Committee investigating the January sixth
Speaker 1: sold on the Capitol holds its final public hearing today.
Speaker 1: January six Committee member Adam Schiffs says that he thinks
Speaker 1: there is sufficient evidence to charge former President Trump. Title
Speaker 1: forty two is set to expire on Wednesday. In El Paso,
Speaker 1: Texas has declared a state of emergency due to an
Speaker 1: influx of migrants. Texas Republican Congressman Tony Gonzalez says migrant
Speaker 1: facilities in El Paso are already filled beyond capacity. However,
Speaker 1: Democratic Congresswoman Veronica Escobar, whose district includes El Paso, insists
Speaker 1: the situation is under control and the Biden administration has
Speaker 1: been very helpful when it comes to dealing with the influx.
Speaker 1: In the NFL, the Giants beat the Commanders, the Jets
Speaker 1: and Patriots lost in the NBA, the Knicks and Nets one,
Speaker 1: the Celtics and Wizards lost, the Warriors one in the NHL,
Speaker 1: the Rangers one, and all my partying in Argentina like
Speaker 1: it's two because the team beat Franks to win the
Speaker 1: World Cup Global news twenty four hours a day on
Speaker 1: air and on Bloomberg Quick Take, powered by more than
Speaker 1: twenty seven hundred journalists an analyists more than a hundred
Speaker 1: twenty countries. Michael bar and this is Bloomberg. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: wouldn't be surprised if that celebration goes into extra time
Speaker 1: as well. Thank you, Michael. It is coming up to
Speaker 1: forty three on Wall Street. This is Bloomberg daybreak Up.
Speaker 1: Nathan Hagar along with Karen Moscow take a look at
Speaker 1: some of the other stories making news on what promises
Speaker 1: to be a slow week on Wall Street as markets
Speaker 1: begin their year end slow down ahead of Christmas. Fed
Speaker 1: rhetoric from last week remains largely in focus as a
Speaker 1: smattering of companies report earnings heading into the holiday season.
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Charlie Pellett has more the Federal Reserve in European
Speaker 1: Central Bank reaffirm rates will go higher for longer, and
Speaker 1: that is raising questions about whether earnings estimates need to
Speaker 1: come down. Victoria Fernandez, his chief market statergist at cross
Speaker 1: Mark Global Investments. We've seen EPs growth estimates come down
Speaker 1: by about five and a half percent so far this quarter.
Speaker 1: That's double what you typically see among the company's schedule
Speaker 1: to report this week CarMax, FedEx, General Mills, Micron Technology, Nike,
Speaker 1: and paychecks in New York. Charlie Pellet Bloomberg Daybreak, very surly,
Speaker 1: thank you a Leon Muskia's front and center this morning.
Speaker 1: We expect results from that pull on his leadership at
Speaker 1: Twitter next hour. At the same time, shares a test
Speaker 1: Law are in focus. They're up almost five percent in
Speaker 1: early trading as investors anticipate his possible withdrawal from Twitter leadership.
Speaker 1: Tesla's shares have been on a long, steady decline since
Speaker 1: musk closed his deal to buy Twitter. Yeah, it's been
Speaker 1: an interesting correlation there. Now, let's look at the crypto
Speaker 1: saga involving f t X, because that continues as well.
Speaker 1: Sources tell us the former CEO of the Crypto Exchange,
Speaker 1: Sam Bankman Freed, plans to drop his fight against ex
Speaker 1: tradition to the US, where he faces a range of
Speaker 1: criminal charges. Bankman Fried has been locked up in the
Speaker 1: Bahamas since last Monday, when he was arrested at the
Speaker 1: request of US authorities. Prosecutors have accused him of a
Speaker 1: number of crimes, including wire fraud, oh I have you
Speaker 1: been more on crypto this morning? Here Nathan, the native
Speaker 1: token of crypto exchange Binance, had snapped a prolonged slide.
Speaker 1: His cell off had been sparked in part by concerns
Speaker 1: about outflows from the world's largest digital asset trading platform.
Speaker 1: Finance Coin or b NB is up about four percent
Speaker 1: in the past two days, ending a seven day losing
Speaker 1: streak that was the longest since October. Overseas, Karen, the
Speaker 1: Japanese yen is stronger this morning. That's after Kyodo News
Speaker 1: reported that Japan's Prime minister was planning to revise a
Speaker 1: ten year old accord with the Bank of Japan. That
Speaker 1: plan could reportedly add flexibility around the central banks two
Speaker 1: percent inflation goal. Right now, the yen is trading a
Speaker 1: third of a percent stronger against the dollar at one
Speaker 1: thirty six point one six now from one central bank
Speaker 1: to another week returned to our conversation on the Federal
Speaker 1: Reserve saw large swings in several asset classes last week,
Speaker 1: mostly tied to comments from central banks. There are also
Speaker 1: big moves around fresh data on consumer prices. Markets are
Speaker 1: watching inflation and Fed policy very closely. So is Larry Summers.
Speaker 1: The former Secretary of the U. S. Treasury, called last
Speaker 1: week's inflation numbers encouraging, and he says the impending recession
Speaker 1: could come later than most think now. Larry Summers spoke
Speaker 1: with David Weston over the weekend on Bloomberg's Wall Street Week.
Speaker 1: Let's get his thoughts. Now. We got the numbers in
Speaker 1: the CPI, We got retail sales numbers, and they tend
Speaker 1: to indicate that maybe inflation is not quite so bad.
Speaker 1: And then we heard from chair Powell, and he got
Speaker 1: up and said his mind doesn't change. Was your mind
Speaker 1: changed as you looked at these numbers? Do you think
Speaker 1: maybe we're a little better shape than we thought we were. Yeah, look,
Speaker 1: I think we are in better shape than I thought
Speaker 1: we were. But I think Powell is the Chairman is
Speaker 1: in about the right place. He's recognizing that we can't
Speaker 1: forecast the economy with precision. He's recognizing that it would
Speaker 1: be a terrible error if we were to fail to
Speaker 1: stop inflation. In this episode, he's rejecting the talk about
Speaker 1: this being a moment to change the inflation target, and
Speaker 1: he's maintained substantial flexibility with respect to the future. I
Speaker 1: think that is broadly, UH the right place for him
Speaker 1: to be. But I think we've got a very difficult
Speaker 1: challenge ahead of us because I think the old adage
Speaker 1: about things taking longer to happen than you think they will,
Speaker 1: and then they happen faster than you thought they could,
Speaker 1: is really operating. With respect to the forecasted UH recession,
Speaker 1: it does look like it's pushed back a bit in time,
Speaker 1: but there are reasons to think, and this is what
Speaker 1: makes the chairman's job so hard that the economy could
Speaker 1: have a kind of widely coyote UH moment. Larry, you
Speaker 1: promised last week we would get to China this week,
Speaker 1: So let's talk about China. Last week we saw the
Speaker 1: COVID zero policy sort of changing. This week we're starting
Speaker 1: to see, at least anecdotally, some of the concepts that
Speaker 1: the reports actually that a lot of China shutting down.
Speaker 1: Some people are saying Beijing is like a ghost town.
Speaker 1: So what potential effect does that have on the rest
Speaker 1: of US, on the U S economy, on the global economy.
Speaker 1: What should our response be. It's likely to be a
Speaker 1: very painful period for China. Two things for us UH
Speaker 1: to remember in the United States. First, even if this
Speaker 1: works out very badly in China, at the end of
Speaker 1: the day, the Chinese fatality rate from COVID will have
Speaker 1: been half of what it was in the United States.
Speaker 1: And so we need to resist any strong tendency to
Speaker 1: be to feeling highly superior. Uh here second, precisely because
Speaker 1: this is burning so out of control, my guess is
Speaker 1: that it's likely, like the fastest burning fires, to burn
Speaker 1: out more quickly rather than more slowly. And so I think,
Speaker 1: ironically a consequence of this is probably the lead to
Speaker 1: some upwards revision on Chinese economic forecasts beginning next spring.
Speaker 1: And that's former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers speaking with David
Speaker 1: Weston on Bloomberg's Wall Street week which you can catch
Speaker 1: every weekend on Bloomberg Radio and television, or any time
Speaker 1: if you download the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere
Speaker 1: else you get your podcasts. Right now, SMP futures are
Speaker 1: moving higher by eighteen points down futures up add twenty three.
Speaker 1: NASTAC futures on the rise by sixty three points after
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks of declines for stocks. On hawkish
Speaker 1: central bank rhetoric ten, your treasuries down eight thirty seconds
Speaker 1: yield three point five one per cent. You're listening to
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Daybreak, markets, headlines and breaking news twenty four hours
Speaker 1: a day at Bloomberg dot Com of Bloomberg Business at
Speaker 1: Land at Bloomberg picktape is a Bloomburn business flash, and
Speaker 1: I'm part Moscow. And futures are gaining on this Monday morning,
Speaker 1: SMP futures of seventeen points or four tenths of upper cent,
Speaker 1: death futures of a third of upper cent or a
Speaker 1: hundred twelve points, and as deck futures of half percent
Speaker 1: or sixty points. Let me check the markets all day
Speaker 1: long here at Bloomberg. The decks in Germany is up
Speaker 1: six tenths of upper cent ten, Your treasury down nine
Speaker 1: thirty seconds. He'll three point five one percent. The yield
Speaker 1: at the two year four point one seven percent. Now
Speaker 1: I make screwed oil is up third of a percent,
Speaker 1: or twenty seven cents at seventy four dollars fifty six
Speaker 1: cents of barrel. Call make school the third of upper
Speaker 1: cent or six dollars At eighteen o six twenty announced
Speaker 1: the euro one point six eight against the dollar. British
Speaker 1: found one point to two oh seven, the N one
Speaker 1: thirties six point eight, and Bigcoin is up tenth of
Speaker 1: a were cent at about sixteen eight hundred dollars. And
Speaker 1: as a Bloomberg Business Flash, Nathan, all right, Karen, thank you.
Speaker 1: It is five fifty six on Wall Street. Time for
Speaker 1: your daily Bloomberg Law Brief, exploring legal issues in the news. Today,
Speaker 1: we look at the lawmakers investigating the January sixth attack
Speaker 1: on the US Capitol. Today, the committee that's been investigating
Speaker 1: that assault the signs whether to refer former President Donald
Speaker 1: Trump and several of his advisers to the Justice Department
Speaker 1: for potential criminal charges related to their conduct in connection
Speaker 1: with the insurrection. For more, Bloomberg's David Weston speaks with
Speaker 1: Rebecca roy Fee, professor of law at New York Law
Speaker 1: School and former assistant District Attorney for the State of
Speaker 1: New York. Suppose they do vote out a recommendation, There's
Speaker 1: have been some indication they would the recommendations I understand
Speaker 1: is to the Department of Justice. What effect does that
Speaker 1: happen the Dear of Justice. Why do they need or
Speaker 1: want or welcome recommendation to kind of make their own
Speaker 1: mind up? What whether prosecute. Yeah, I don't think it
Speaker 1: really does make a difference for the Department of Justice.
Speaker 1: I think the Department of Justice, as we know, is
Speaker 1: well along in its own investing aation and will you know,
Speaker 1: take the reference certainly, um, you know, under consideration, but
Speaker 1: I don't think it really has any bearing. It's more
Speaker 1: of a symbolic act showing that at the conclusion of
Speaker 1: this long congressional investigation and several hearings, that it is
Speaker 1: the determination of these members of Congress that there ought
Speaker 1: to be uh you know, a criminal investigation or criminal
Speaker 1: prosecution in this in this case, do we know or
Speaker 1: more importantly, do you know whether the Committee is sharing
Speaker 1: or will share whatever events it gathered with the Department Justice.
Speaker 1: I am sure that they would if if it were requested.
Speaker 1: But my guess is that the Department of Justice has
Speaker 1: pursued many of the same leads, and I don't know
Speaker 1: how useful it would be given that this parallel investigation
Speaker 1: is already underway. There are reports that another possible thing
Speaker 1: that could come out of the committee next Monday when
Speaker 1: they made is a vote on a recommendation under the
Speaker 1: fourteenth Amendment, which is we know includes a provision that
Speaker 1: disqualifies people who have been involved in i'll call it insurrection. Uh,
Speaker 1: disqualifies in theroity for office again, which could apply to
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, the former president. Uh. What is the mechanism
Speaker 1: by which that is enforced? Do you know, professor? Because
Speaker 1: I'm not sure I do. Yeah. I mean, that would
Speaker 1: be somewhat unprecedented, and I suppose the way that it
Speaker 1: would be enforced is through the courts. But you know,
Speaker 1: it isn't an immediately apparent how that would happen. It
Speaker 1: would have to be somebody who would have standing to
Speaker 1: bring a case, maybe an opponent or something like that.
Speaker 1: But it isn't you know, it isn't really meant to
Speaker 1: be enforced in the way that normal um, you know,
Speaker 1: our normal statutory or constitutional law is enforced because obviously
Speaker 1: this is you know, two coequal branches and makes it
Speaker 1: somewhat difficult for that particular provision to have actual teeth.
Speaker 1: That's former Assistant District Attorney for New York and current
Speaker 1: New York Law School professor Rebecca Roife speaking with David
Speaker 1: Weston on Bloomberg's Ounce of Power. You can catch that
Speaker 1: show live each weekday beginning at noon Eastern on Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Radio and television, plus exceptional legal research and business development tools.
Speaker 1: Those can be found at Bloomberg Law dot com and
Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg terminal at b law go. SMP futures
Speaker 1: right now A fifteen points staff futures up A hundred two.
Speaker 1: NASTAC futures are higher by fifty four points. The tenure
Speaker 1: treasury is down nine thirty seconds. The yield three point
Speaker 1: five one percent yield on the two year four point
Speaker 1: one seven percent nime X s crudes higher by three
Speaker 1: tenths percent at seventy four dollars, fifty three cents of
Speaker 1: barrel comics gold is up three tenths percent at eighteen
Speaker 1: oh six even announced, and the euro one point zero
Speaker 1: six to one against the dollars straight ahead. A check
Speaker 1: of the business headlines all the news you need to
Speaker 1: start your day. Our two of Bloomberg Day Break starts
Speaker 1: right now.