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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network podcast presented by bet MGM,

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Speaker 1: the King of Sports Books. I'm your host today, Brendan Lasheen,

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Speaker 1: joined by Sean Zarillo and Billy Ward. That means the

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Speaker 1: UFC betting previews are back. We returned last week. If

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Speaker 1: you're just hopping in Welcome, please subscribe, rate, and review

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Speaker 1: because every Friday Iszarrillo and Billy Ward will be giving

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Speaker 1: out underdogs, props and possibly best bets or final bets

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Speaker 1: in the UFC UFC Vegas eighty six at the Apex

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Speaker 1: Facility in Las Vegas.

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Speaker 2: I tried to.

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Speaker 1: Ask Billy and Sean before we started recording how they're

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Speaker 1: feeling about this event compared to last week and last week.

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Speaker 1: They're like, well, you know, I think next week's cards

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Speaker 1: actually pretty good. Now I think they don't like their

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Speaker 1: bets as much, But that does not mean they didn't

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Speaker 1: do their homework and have found edges for this week.

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Speaker 1: But that's how it goes. Some cards are better than others,

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Speaker 1: betting value or just like fights that you want to watch. Right,

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Speaker 1: those are two separate things. So the main event, which Zarella,

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Speaker 1: you're interested in, Joe Pifer taking on Jack Hermanson this weekend.

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Speaker 1: Hermanson is the older fighter, thirty five years old. Pifer

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Speaker 1: is twenty seven. Hermannson is a significant dog in this

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Speaker 1: main event, not as significant as we've preoly previously seen

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Speaker 1: in main events, but plus plus two ten on the

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Speaker 1: money line over at bet MGM Pifer at minus two

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Speaker 1: seventy five. When you identify the line, is it fair

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Speaker 1: and how would you like to bet the fight?

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Speaker 3: I like Jack here at plus two ten. I made

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Speaker 3: this line closer to plus one seventy five. The market

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Speaker 3: has come down a little bit. He was closer to

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Speaker 3: plus two twenty plus two thirty even so it seems

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Speaker 3: like it is starting to take his direction in terms

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Speaker 3: of a pre fight side though, I think Joe Pifer

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Speaker 3: and Pifer by knockout in particular might be the way

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Speaker 3: that I would want to bet this if I didn't

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Speaker 3: like the underdogs, I was interested in Pifer. I'm looking

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Speaker 3: to take Pyfer early and his finish props. I do

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Speaker 3: think the earlier part of the fight should be where

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Speaker 3: he has his most success and where he looks the

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Speaker 3: best and also where he should have a high likelier

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Speaker 3: chance of finishing Hermanson as opposed to the other way around.

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Speaker 3: I think if this fight extends, it certainly lends itself

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Speaker 3: to her Manson, who's been five rounds on four occasions.

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Speaker 3: He's been in I believe, booked for eight different five

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Speaker 3: round fights. This is the fourth five round fight he's

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Speaker 3: been booked four in the UFC. The other three all

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Speaker 3: went the distance. Pypher in his career has only seen

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Speaker 3: a third round one time, and that I believe was

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Speaker 3: eight years ago. So experience, strength, the schedule, all of

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Speaker 3: which favor Hermanson grappling upside as well. Also in his corner,

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Speaker 3: the striking upside, and the range where this should be

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Speaker 3: fought early certainly favors Pifer, who's the stronger man, the

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Speaker 3: faster man, hits harder. So when these two are striking earlier,

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Speaker 3: the way the early fight should play out. In my opinion,

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Speaker 3: Hermanson likes to be on the outside of the octagon,

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Speaker 3: kickboxing opponents, sticking and moving, kicking the leg, moving around

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Speaker 3: but staying out of danger. Tifer isn't going to see

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Speaker 3: the power to keep him off of him, so he's

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Speaker 3: probably going to close the distance, pressure Hermanson up against

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Speaker 3: the cage and look to box him up and potentially

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Speaker 3: knock him out. He carries a ton of power in

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Speaker 3: his hands. I know there was this thing going around

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Speaker 3: yesterday about whether he punches harder than Francis and Gano

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Speaker 3: or not. That's a complete joke, but Pyper does hit

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Speaker 3: very hard for a middle eight. His knockouts are very impressive.

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Speaker 3: He takes guys off of their feet, and I think

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Speaker 3: he'd be connects clean on Jack. He's either going to

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Speaker 3: knock him out or going to hurt him. So the

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Speaker 3: early as said, round one and round two probably favor Piper,

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Speaker 3: and you can look to live better for Manson after

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Speaker 3: those rounds, likely after rounds two and three, if he survives.

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Speaker 3: As this fight extends, I think it's going to play

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Speaker 3: to his favor. So if Piper doesn't get that early knockout,

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Speaker 3: I expect for Manson to work his way back into

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Speaker 3: the fight. I like his money line pre fight at

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Speaker 3: plus two twenty. I do think he could be competitive

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Speaker 3: in the early rounds. I just think it's likelier Piper

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Speaker 3: wins them, and you got a better number of the

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Speaker 3: lab market, so Formanson pre Fight plus two twenty I

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Speaker 3: think is okay live entry probably better after rounds two

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Speaker 3: and three, And if you like the favorite pre fight

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Speaker 3: would take his knockout prop okay.

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Speaker 1: Billy Ward pens the weekly underrated fighters to target for

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Speaker 1: UFC Fight Night, the luck ratings over an Action Network,

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Speaker 1: and Billy, you find the line to be fairly valued.

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Speaker 1: So how would you approach finding an edge?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's interesting. I mostly agree with Sean's analysis here.

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Speaker 4: It's one of those fights where I think, you know,

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Speaker 4: I haven't watched a little bit more tape than I have,

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Speaker 4: since it feels too long. But I also kind of

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Speaker 4: have a hard time seeing how Hermanson gets to win,

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Speaker 4: Like I expect him to look like a closer underdog

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Speaker 4: than the line suggests, but still probably end up losing it.

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Speaker 4: And for a couple of reasons, I think the power

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Speaker 4: optics of Hermanson versus Pifer just can be really bad

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Speaker 4: to the judges, even if Jack's not landing him three

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Speaker 4: to one. You know, Jackson never landed a knockdown in

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Speaker 4: the UFC. Pifer's just out here starching people. I think

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Speaker 4: that you know is gonna help and swing some rounds

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Speaker 4: that you know we might be arguing after should have

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Speaker 4: gone to Hermanson when we look at the stats, but

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Speaker 4: when you watch it in real time and see Pifer

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Speaker 4: landing big, is gonna be tough? And then the other

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Speaker 4: thing Pifer. I think it's an underrated grappler. I say

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Speaker 4: I think because we've seen him in some pro grappling matches,

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Speaker 4: but only against other UFC fighters, not guys who are

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Speaker 4: full time grapplers, so it's a little bit harder to judge.

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Speaker 4: But he's not horrible on the mat and the way

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Speaker 4: we're scoring fights now, Harmnson getting a takedown but not

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Speaker 4: doing much with it probably doesn't win him around either.

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Speaker 4: With all that said, love Sean's points about the cardio

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Speaker 4: and the you know, five round experience for her Manson.

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Speaker 4: On top of that, Pifer's aggression doesn't really work well

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Speaker 4: over a long period of time. Some guys we haven't

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Speaker 4: seen him go five rounds, and then they look great

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Speaker 4: the first time they do. I don't think that'll be

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Speaker 4: the case with Pifer if it gets extended. He's swinging

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Speaker 4: hard on everything, He's going for explosive takedowns when he shoots.

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Speaker 4: All that doesn't translate well over five rounds. So her

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Speaker 4: Manson live is probably my favorite angle, but in terms

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Speaker 4: of pre fight, just as a way to try to

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Speaker 4: bet that this is closer than the line implies, I

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Speaker 4: think I'm going over two and a half rounds at

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Speaker 4: plus one twenty five. Other angle, you know, if you

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Speaker 4: have books where they offer the split round props, taking

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Speaker 4: some combination of Pifer early her Manson late is an option.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, I love the live play. I think that's,

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Speaker 4: you know, my favorite single angle, assuming it works out

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Speaker 4: where we get a better line, but also just taking

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Speaker 4: the over, assuming that her Manson can extend this a

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Speaker 4: little bit, get some takedowns, stay safe early, and then

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Speaker 4: Pifer you know, finish or whatever happened to the end.

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Speaker 4: It doesn't matter. We've already cashed our ticket if we

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Speaker 4: get to the end of the third round.

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Speaker 1: Zerrilla, was there something that you might see in the fight,

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Speaker 1: because you mentioned you both have talked about live betting

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Speaker 1: on UFC events, Is there something that might that you're

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Speaker 1: going to keep in mind that you see and say,

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Speaker 1: wait a minute, even though the line might be there,

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Speaker 1: it's something I noticed when you watch, like, I'm not

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Speaker 1: going to touch her Manson because you saw is there

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Speaker 1: something you're keeping an eye out for.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it depends on Piper's approach early. You know, this

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Speaker 3: is Piper's first route five round fight. There's a chance

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Speaker 3: that he comes out and isn't as aggressive as he

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Speaker 3: typically is and tries to fight more of that medium

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Speaker 3: to low temple kickboxing match where he does have the

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Speaker 3: power advantage, right, so he only really needs to land

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Speaker 3: the most impactful strike of the round against Hermanson, who's

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Speaker 3: going to be trying to kick him a bunch in

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Speaker 3: order to win the round. So there's a chance that

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Speaker 3: Piper's pace is not as aggressive as it normally is

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Speaker 3: and that he attempts to conserve his cardio, and maybe

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Speaker 3: his cardio now that he's in his prime, eight years

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Speaker 3: removed from his last three round fight, maybe his cardio

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Speaker 3: is better than we give it credit for, you know,

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Speaker 3: now that he's in his athletic prime, in the prime

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Speaker 3: of his career. So definitely want to watch him how

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Speaker 3: he approaches the fight, how he's approaching the fight early.

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Speaker 3: But if he's up to his you know, typical style,

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Speaker 3: throwing power behind every shot, pressuring NonStop over the first

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Speaker 3: two rounds, I would eventually expect him to gass out

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Speaker 3: just based on historics and past optics of his fights

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Speaker 3: and the fights that have extended. So you know Hermanson's

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Speaker 3: advantages here aside for potentially getting on top and having

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Speaker 3: a very good top game, it comes down to Cardion experience.

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Speaker 3: So rounds three, four, and five should benefit him. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: it definitely depends how Pyper approaches things early and relying

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Speaker 3: on him to be aggressive and going for the finish

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Speaker 3: and not getting.

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Speaker 4: It good one and the real quick. I just I'm

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Speaker 4: glad you brought that. I meant to mention that when

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Speaker 4: talking about the over, I think sometimes guys like this,

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Speaker 4: you know, they want to fight for a toilet at

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Speaker 4: some point. I think we see sometimes our fighters come

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Speaker 4: out and they want to prove they can fight into

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Speaker 4: the championship rounds, So they do you know, they're not

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Speaker 4: hunting the finishes aggressively early just because they want to

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Speaker 4: show that. Which, again, if that's what we think Pifer,

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Speaker 4: even if there's a chance he does that, getting the

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Speaker 4: over two and a half at plus money, I think

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Speaker 4: makes some sense on that because you know, it could

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Speaker 4: be just trying to conserve Cardio, or it could be

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Speaker 4: to say like, hey, look guys, I can fight four

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Speaker 4: or five rounds if I need to and get a

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Speaker 4: late finish or go the distance and be okay, just

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Speaker 4: as a way of saying, like, you know, I'm main

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Speaker 4: event material, I'm championship ready. So I think that's something

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Speaker 4: to consider as well.

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Speaker 3: And they also they sometimes too, you know, shrikers like Pifer,

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Speaker 3: he won his last fight via submission, showed good wrestling.

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Speaker 3: There's a chance that he comes out and tries to prove, hey,

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Speaker 3: I'm the better grappler than Jack too early, you know,

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Speaker 3: and he tires himself out trying to grapple. So that

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Speaker 3: actually may be something where I'd be more encouraged by

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Speaker 3: a lie bet, you know, if he's not engaging in

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Speaker 3: that low tempo kickboxing match, if he's actively trying to

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Speaker 3: grapple Hermanson, wrestle him using energy to stay on top.

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Speaker 3: Hermanson may be losing the round, but in my mind,

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Speaker 3: he's just draining time off the clock and draining energy

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Speaker 3: at a Piper's gas tank, even if he's on bottom.

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Speaker 3: So I'd actually be encouraged to see Pifer grappling her

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Speaker 3: Manson early if I'm betting her Manson, because I think

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Speaker 3: the gas tank is not going to be a piper's

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Speaker 3: benefit later. So yeah, that happens oftentimes too. They not

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Speaker 3: only do you guys try to prove that their main

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Speaker 3: event material they can go five rounds, they also try

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Speaker 3: to prove, Hey, I'm more row rounded than you think.

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Speaker 3: I'm not just gonna come here and box this guy

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Speaker 3: up and knock him out. I'm gonna try to out

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Speaker 3: grapple him first. So very much a possibility that Hyfer

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Speaker 3: wrestles from the outset and tries to prove that he's

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Speaker 3: a better grappler too.

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Speaker 1: Middleweight bout on the main card is our fight of

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Speaker 1: the night, Hudolfo Vieira versus Arman Petra Son Right now,

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Speaker 1: you can find the line at bet MGM. Let's see

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Speaker 1: here I headed up a second ago, so it's about

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Speaker 1: even money. Vieira minus won twenty five when the money

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Speaker 1: line Petra Scion is plus one oh five. Same question,

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Speaker 1: here's Zarrollo. When you look at the line, fairly valued

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Speaker 1: and how would you like to bet this one?

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Speaker 3: This fight was rebooked from a card a few weeks ago,

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Speaker 3: or I should say a couple months ago that was

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Speaker 3: down in Brazil. Protrusion on the day of the fight,

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Speaker 3: apparently got sick and pulled out. May have had something

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Speaker 3: to do with anxiety. Not one hundred percent sure why

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Speaker 3: he pulled out, but that was the apparent rumor. This

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Speaker 3: is a very binary matchup and Vieira a guy I

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Speaker 3: typically bet against because again, not a fighter with good cardio.

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Speaker 3: In fact, he's proven that when he gets extended beyond

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Speaker 3: the first round, his gas tank tends to wilt. He

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Speaker 3: has more trouble getting takedowns. He is a Brazilian jiu

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Speaker 3: jitsu black belt, one of the best Brazilian jiu jitsu

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Speaker 3: practitioners in the world fighting in combat sports. And Petrojian,

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Speaker 3: while he's proven against other grapplers that he can survive,

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Speaker 3: work his way back up, work his way back into

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Speaker 3: the fight, and win, this is the highest level grappler

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Speaker 3: he's faced, and all of his opponents do tend to

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Speaker 3: get him down to the ground early. So even though

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Speaker 3: Vira doesn't have the best wrestling, I do expect him

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Speaker 3: to get on top here in the first round and

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Speaker 3: to put Petrojian in some very dangerous positions. So Vieira

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Speaker 3: pre fight money line I think is the right side

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Speaker 3: I've projected him closer to minus on twenty five. I

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Speaker 3: actually prefer his submission prop at plus one point eighty,

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Speaker 3: and I think you take either Vieira's money line or

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Speaker 3: his submission prop into the fight, and then you look

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Speaker 3: to bet on Petrosian live after round one if he's

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Speaker 3: still there, and try to get not plus money on

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Speaker 3: both sides necessarily if you're taking Viera's money line, but

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Speaker 3: with the submission prop on Vieira and then Petrojan's money line,

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Speaker 3: hopefully you're riding about plus one eighty and then plus

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Speaker 3: two hundred on Patrojian on either side after the first round.

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Speaker 3: So I think the smaller cage here is certainly going

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Speaker 3: to be a VIA's benefit. Doesn't have to go as

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Speaker 3: far to close the distance to land the takedowns. But

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Speaker 3: if this stays on the feet for any extended amount

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Speaker 3: of time, Petrosian is a bunch better kickboxer, much more technical,

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Speaker 3: and also has the better cardios. So pre fight, if

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Speaker 3: you like the underdog or not the underdog necessarily as

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Speaker 3: a pick and fight, but if you like Petrosian pre fight,

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Speaker 3: I would look to bet his round two and round

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Speaker 3: three props. I think he should be much fresher in

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Speaker 3: the final two rounds and have a good chance of

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Speaker 3: finishing via on the feet of Fera can't get takedowns.

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Speaker 3: But pre fight, I certainly want Viera's submission prop as

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Speaker 3: I said about plus one eighty, could actually look to

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Speaker 3: take his money on too. I think there's a chance

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Speaker 3: that he just controls Patrosian for two rounds and then

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Speaker 3: maybe enough in the third to survive. But I wouldn't

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Speaker 3: really want to sweat that as much. I think there's

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Speaker 3: actually a chance we get a draw here too. I

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Speaker 3: didn't very much see a Vieria ten nine round one

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Speaker 3: and two being gassed in the third round and then

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Speaker 3: Petrosian ten eighting them with strikes and this ending up

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Speaker 3: in a draw. So there's a lot of ways this

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Speaker 3: fight can go. You know, binary fights you know tend

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Speaker 3: to have. I would say the highest potential for a

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Speaker 3: ten eight round and therefore a draw. But I don't

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Speaker 3: think this is the worst fight to play a draw.

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Speaker 3: But I'm going to take Viera's submission property fight.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Going back to November, the broadcast said Petrosian fell

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Speaker 1: ill backstage, was said to have been vomiting. That's why

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Speaker 1: the fight was axed back in early November. So, Billy,

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Speaker 1: reading from your luck ratings right up, you identify Viera

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Speaker 1: as an undervalued fighter. I want to expand on that.

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Speaker 4: Well, the line's moved a little bit since then. I

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Speaker 4: think there's enough like it was a slight favorite now,

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Speaker 4: but no, I mean, I'm really glad Sean brought up

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Speaker 4: the cage. That's to me, the significant difference between this

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Speaker 4: time and the first time it was booked is we

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Speaker 4: have one guy who needs to be physically grabbing you

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Speaker 4: to win a fight, and another guy who needs to

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Speaker 4: be as far away as possible to win a fight.

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Speaker 4: Now we put him in a smaller cage. Obviously favors

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Speaker 4: Vieira there. You know. Sean also mentioned that, you know,

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Speaker 4: it's a higher level of grappler than Petrosian has survived against.

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Speaker 4: I did the full breakdown of this one, and I

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Speaker 4: looked up, you know, some of the past opponents. He

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Speaker 4: got taken down twice by Gregory Rodriguez, who's also fighting

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Speaker 4: on this card, managed to survive that. G Rod's best

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Speaker 4: accomplishments in terms of just pure sport grappling as he

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Speaker 4: won the World Championships at blue Belt, which is like

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Speaker 4: your first two to three years of grappling and adolful,

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Speaker 4: Vieira has won you know, the open weight adc C

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Speaker 4: at black belt, his nickname is the black belt Hunter.

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Speaker 4: Like just the most accomplished BJJ guy we've had in

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Speaker 4: the UFC in a very long time, so hugely different

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Speaker 4: levels to that. Other than that, I totally agree with

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Speaker 4: Shawan's analysis. I think it's Vieira early. You know, you

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Speaker 4: could play him in round one or round two if

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Speaker 4: you have a book that does split, if you have

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Speaker 4: a book that does same game, parlays all those unders

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Speaker 4: and then you know, if you're watching it, I'd much

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Speaker 4: rather be playing Petrazi and live than trying to pick

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Speaker 4: his pre fight method of victory, you know, because is

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Speaker 4: it around three finish? Is it a decision? Any of

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Speaker 4: those things? The only other pre fight angle I think

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Speaker 4: I prefer via inside the distance at plus one fifty

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Speaker 4: over his submission. Submission is way likelier. But the difference

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Speaker 4: between plus one seventy five and plus one fifty just

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Speaker 4: isn't there for me. That he doesn't control him on

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Speaker 4: the ground and you know, elbow him in the head

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Speaker 4: a few times or whatever. The inverse of a club

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Speaker 4: and sub is and we need a catchy word for

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Speaker 4: that where a grappler ends up getting a TKO instead

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Speaker 4: of a submission when they could have had the submission

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Speaker 4: but chose to be the guy's head in it.

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Speaker 3: It's a snapno tap because it's the injury TKO where

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Speaker 3: the refs to call it off but the fighter never taps,

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Speaker 3: and it's a submission that leads to a technical knockout.

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Speaker 3: So it's a snapno tap.

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Speaker 4: Or you know, just like he's controlling you on the

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Speaker 4: back seat of going for the show. He just pounds

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Speaker 4: you out and finishes it that way. There's just enough

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Speaker 4: angles there where I don't think it's entirely likely, but

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Speaker 4: when the lines are this close, I'm not going to

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Speaker 4: get greedy, right. I'd be real upset if I had

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Speaker 4: that via submission ticket. He's dominating him on the ground

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Speaker 4: and then lands one big shot and herb deaner whoever,

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Speaker 4: jumps in and waves it off rather than the submission.

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Speaker 4: So I get where you're coming from. Like it's super

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Speaker 4: by far, the likeliest way he finishes it is a submission,

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Speaker 4: But I'm playing a little bit scared here. I guess

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Speaker 4: taking the inside the distance rather than sub specifically.

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Speaker 1: This podcast is proudly presented by BETMGM used bonus code

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Speaker 1: Terms and conditions apply. Must be twenty one or older.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler UFC Vegas seventy six. Again,

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Speaker 1: I didn't say this at the top. ESPN plus is

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Speaker 1: where you can watch the main card starts at seven,

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Speaker 1: prelims at four. And speaking of the pre limbs, Aillo,

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Speaker 1: when we talk underdogs, you've identified a prelim fight that

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Speaker 1: you think there's an edge on the dock.

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Speaker 3: Timothy Kwamba, this line is about plus one sixty five

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Speaker 3: last night. It is definitely moving his direction. This fight

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Speaker 3: was just book. Kwamba is a late replacement for Damir Hazovich.

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Speaker 3: Both of these fighters, Kwamba and Balagioki, who's the favorite

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Speaker 3: in the matchup, are debutants. Coming off a Contender Series,

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Speaker 3: and that is why this is a tough card to beat.

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Speaker 3: In general, there's a number of fighters making their divus

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Speaker 3: off Contender Series or just making their ufcad abuse in general,

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Speaker 3: who don't have a ton of information about don't have

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Speaker 3: a ton of tape on you know, may have one

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Speaker 3: or two fights that we could find, but beyond that,

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Speaker 3: difficult to gain a lot of information on them. But

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Speaker 3: do like to see the line moving towards Kwamba. He

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Speaker 3: did take this fight on short notice, as I mentioned,

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Speaker 3: four days notice. He's also moving up a weight class,

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Speaker 3: so neither are those things in his favor. But he

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Speaker 3: is the hometown fighter, trains full time in Las Vegas

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Speaker 3: at extreme contur so he's well trained, he's extremely well rounded.

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Speaker 3: He's also going to have the home crowd in his

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00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:12,119
Speaker 3: favor there too. On the Contender Series, the building was

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Speaker 3: about as loud as I've ever heard for a fighter

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Speaker 3: there because he had all of his family and friends

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Speaker 3: there from Las Vegas. Not sure how the ticketing works

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00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:23,520
Speaker 3: for APEX events that are actually UFC events as opposed

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Speaker 3: to Contender series. Maybe he's just going to have far

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Speaker 3: fewer people in the crowd, but anybody who's there from

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Speaker 3: Las Vegas, I would imagine we'll be rooting for kwambap.

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Speaker 3: This fight should just be closer and competitive, more competitive

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Speaker 3: than the money line indicates. I think this is basically

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Speaker 3: going to play out as a pick'm fight. Oki sure

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00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:41,800
Speaker 3: should have more finishing upside early and then this is

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Speaker 3: the fight extense. I think Kwama is going to be

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Speaker 3: the more well rounded man and keep this very close,

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00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:50,399
Speaker 3: both on volume mixed in some grappling. I just you know,

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Speaker 3: to me, I projected this fight much closer to fifty

396
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Speaker 3: to fifty. Again, the short notice nature, potentially the size

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00:18:56,760 --> 00:18:59,800
Speaker 3: differential should favor Olgi, but beyond that, this is a

398
00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:02,960
Speaker 3: is a competitive fight and one that likely goes all

399
00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:05,719
Speaker 3: fifteen minutes. I see fight goes to decision opening up

400
00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,960
Speaker 3: plus money. That's probably going to interest me too, maybe

401
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,520
Speaker 3: a high volume more, but one that likely goes off

402
00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:14,840
Speaker 3: fifteen minutes. So Kwamba sitting best price right now if

403
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:17,520
Speaker 3: you shop round is plus one fifty five. Would look

404
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:19,280
Speaker 3: for the best number you can find because the market

405
00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:22,280
Speaker 3: is all over placed between one thirty five and one

406
00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:24,920
Speaker 3: to fifty five. As I said, it's opened one sixty

407
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:28,080
Speaker 3: five yesterday and it seems like it's moving down quicker

408
00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:30,720
Speaker 3: in some books than another, so make sure to shop

409
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Speaker 3: round for the best price. With Timothy Kwamba my favorite

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Speaker 3: underdog other than her Manson on Saturday's.

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Speaker 1: Card, Okay, Billy underdog for you, and they think similar

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Speaker 1: to what we discussed. It's very important to note that, yes,

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Speaker 1: the lines move based on when you put up your

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Speaker 1: luck ratings article, and that's the case for the for

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Speaker 1: the dog that you like on the prelim card.

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00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:52,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I ended up going with two here just because

417
00:19:52,600 --> 00:19:55,240
Speaker 4: of the movement on the one. Bog Dam Gooska fighting

418
00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:58,639
Speaker 4: the Ultimate Fighter vetteran Zach Pauga. You know he's plus

419
00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:00,920
Speaker 4: one fifteen plus one twenty in the week. I think

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Speaker 4: the best you can get is plus one oh five

421
00:20:02,760 --> 00:20:04,679
Speaker 4: right now if you shop around plus one hundred at

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Speaker 4: bet MGM. Literally last night at midnight when I was

423
00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:10,480
Speaker 4: putting these in, it was a better line. So this

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Speaker 4: one's been falling the whole time pretty clearly. I think

425
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Speaker 4: the right side to be on, and the line movement

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Speaker 4: indicates that. So I guess there's more of just a

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00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 4: shameless plug for my luck ratings than it is actually

428
00:20:20,359 --> 00:20:23,159
Speaker 4: a pick that I'm suggesting at this moment, but I

429
00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 4: still like it even at even money. Then the other one,

430
00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:28,240
Speaker 4: Bruna Brazil. I think she's climbed as high as like

431
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:31,440
Speaker 4: plus two forty some places not quite that, oh plus

432
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,239
Speaker 4: two forty at bet MGM. Good, just another one. It's

433
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:36,600
Speaker 4: the likeliest car fight on the card to go to

434
00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:39,600
Speaker 4: a decision by the odds, judges are going to be

435
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 4: involved two smaller fighters, hard to tell who's hitting harder,

436
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:44,919
Speaker 4: should be mostly a striking matchup with lomap on me,

437
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 4: you're kind of just betting that the judges possibly screw

438
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:50,879
Speaker 4: something up or this one's hard to judge. Anytime we

439
00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 4: get north of like plus two hundred on a fight

440
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,200
Speaker 4: we think goes to a decision, especially when we don't

441
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:57,040
Speaker 4: think one fighter is going to dominate the grappling and

442
00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 4: make it clear that they're better, that's pretty easy for

443
00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:02,119
Speaker 4: me just the you know, I'm not saying she's a

444
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 4: better fighter, but just based on the systemic way that

445
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:06,200
Speaker 4: we like to look at that, I think that one's

446
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:06,680
Speaker 4: pretty easy.

447
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:12,720
Speaker 1: About props for UFC Vegas seven eighty six Zerrilla, where

448
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:14,560
Speaker 1: might we look for props this week?

449
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,719
Speaker 3: Comine fight on the car Danny Gay versus Andre Feeley.

450
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 3: This is, along with the main event, one of the

451
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:25,000
Speaker 3: two fights that are definitely worth checking out this weekend.

452
00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 3: This I believe is another short notice booking. I'm not

453
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 3: sure who Pheey is replacing on late notice, but he

454
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 3: did take this fight on a couple of weeks notice,

455
00:21:33,720 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 3: and I don't know if this matchup is great for him,

456
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,880
Speaker 3: just due to the massive advantages that ega has both

457
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:46,240
Speaker 3: in terms of durability and power. This is probably going

458
00:21:46,280 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 3: to be a very high volume striking fight. Egay not

459
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:51,879
Speaker 3: the most high volume striker, but I should say a

460
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:57,439
Speaker 3: higher paced brawl. I don't really see either guy taking

461
00:21:57,480 --> 00:22:01,360
Speaker 3: the other down and consolidating position for significant stretches the time.

462
00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:04,640
Speaker 3: Maybe Egay, who's a little stronger, is likelier to hold

463
00:22:04,680 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 3: position up against the fence for periods of time, But

464
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,480
Speaker 3: to me, just massive advantages in terms of hardware for

465
00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 3: him here against Pheley, who probably has a speed advantage.

466
00:22:15,320 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 3: But this is another fight, as we talk about from

467
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 3: time to time, where the guy with more power is

468
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,600
Speaker 3: a bit shorter and at a reach disadvantage, and Egay,

469
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:25,919
Speaker 3: who is the better boxer, is going to look to

470
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:29,000
Speaker 3: crash that pocket, get inside and laying the power shots

471
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 3: on Pheey, So I like Ega to win this fight

472
00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:34,440
Speaker 3: by knockout. I got it at plus three twenty. Definitely

473
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,400
Speaker 3: shop around for a number there. You can find as

474
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 3: low as plus two thirty or plus two fifty, and

475
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:42,160
Speaker 3: I said as highest plus three twenty, depending on where

476
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 3: you're betting that, So make sure to shop around for

477
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:48,359
Speaker 3: the best number, and then Egay and finish only markets

478
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 3: as well. I believe I saw him at minus one

479
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 3: twenty minus one twenty five. That's super short. Egay should

480
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,439
Speaker 3: be like minus two hundred minus two twenty five if

481
00:22:57,480 --> 00:22:59,919
Speaker 3: you're betting any finish only markets here. If you like

482
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,159
Speaker 3: phey side, I would probably lean to him by a

483
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 3: decision or the fight to go over. I think he

484
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:08,160
Speaker 3: likely wins the competitive decision if he does win, maybe

485
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 3: even Philly on the UH the spread the plus three

486
00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 3: and a half points would be another way to play

487
00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 3: him as well, But don't love that just because I

488
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:19,399
Speaker 3: give all the finishing upside to Dan Egays. So Egay

489
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:23,520
Speaker 3: by knockout plus three twenty. Phelly has just even though

490
00:23:23,560 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 3: you don't see a number of knockouts on his record,

491
00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 3: he gets wobbled in nearly every fight, and Ega is

492
00:23:28,640 --> 00:23:30,680
Speaker 3: the biggest puncher he's faced a while. I should also

493
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 3: mention his last knockout came in the Apex. Egay's last

494
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 3: two knockout wins in the Apex. So I think the

495
00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,919
Speaker 3: close nature, the smaller cage, you're just gonna force them

496
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 3: both into the pocket, and that DN definitely benefits Danny

497
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:43,160
Speaker 3: Gay Philly was.

498
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 1: Hoping to be in the octom reading here from UFC

499
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 1: dot com, was hoping to be in the octagon by

500
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 1: March and then got, like you said, short note is

501
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:51,919
Speaker 1: found out in January that he'd have an opportunity here

502
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 1: against Egay. So Andre Phiele two point zero is is

503
00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:00,439
Speaker 1: he ready to go on short note? So there's some

504
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 1: edges there, I guess by your standards on Egay Billy

505
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,119
Speaker 1: prop market, where might we be looking this week?

506
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm looking. I believe it's the first fight of

507
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:11,719
Speaker 4: the night. Although they keep shuffling the order here, Daniel

508
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:14,399
Speaker 4: Marcos and Richi Ki Lang love the under two and

509
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:16,879
Speaker 4: a half here at plus money plus one fifty. I

510
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 4: was a little surprised that that line. I guess the

511
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 4: reasoning is neither fighters had too many finishes in their fight.

512
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:25,879
Speaker 4: But there's a knockdown on almost every one of their fights.

513
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 4: It's just they've managed to power through it. So I'm

514
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:30,159
Speaker 4: looking it up in a Ricchi Kei Lang fights, He's

515
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:33,200
Speaker 4: had six UFC fights, five of them somebody's been knocked down,

516
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 4: only two of them finished by knockout. Marcos has two

517
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 4: knockdowns either four or against him, I think both for

518
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 4: him in his three fights. One of them finished, one didn't,

519
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 4: And I think it's one of those things that we

520
00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 4: expect to regress to the mean when you're looking at

521
00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:49,720
Speaker 4: USC statistically, if there's knockdowns, knockdowns, knockdowns, those should turn

522
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 4: into knockouts at a fairly high clip. I'm assuming that's

523
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:54,639
Speaker 4: what happens here. Neither guy really likes to grapple, so

524
00:24:54,680 --> 00:24:57,679
Speaker 4: you could also specifically go fight ends by knockout. The

525
00:24:57,720 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 4: price difference wasn't quite enough for me to feel good

526
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 4: about that, because again, you know, club and sub knock

527
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 4: a guy down, jump on his back, joke him out, whatever.

528
00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 4: So plus one fifty on the under two and a

529
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,000
Speaker 4: half could also go fight, doesn't go to the decision

530
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:12,280
Speaker 4: anything like that. I understand that it's a little bit

531
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:14,600
Speaker 4: lighter weight class, so sometimes we don't expect the finishes

532
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,439
Speaker 4: at the bantamweights, but these guys are just throwing, you know,

533
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:20,440
Speaker 4: don't really see great chins on either side, especially a

534
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 4: Reji Ki Lang. Both guys throw hard, So like the under.

535
00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 1: Okay where it might be well, first off, do we

536
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 1: have the best bet this week from either of you?

537
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,640
Speaker 1: I'm always intrigued by that. And what are we looking

538
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:34,040
Speaker 1: for this week? Zerrillo for a best bet, which i'ms out.

539
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,199
Speaker 3: I think Hermanson Live is probably my favorite bet on

540
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:41,639
Speaker 3: the card. But in terms of another bet that I

541
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 3: like just as much as the other ones that I've

542
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:47,880
Speaker 3: given out here, no more, no less, Gregory Rodriguez and

543
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:50,160
Speaker 3: Brad Taveraz over two and a half rounds. That's about

544
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,600
Speaker 3: minus one twenty. You can also get the fight to

545
00:25:52,640 --> 00:25:55,520
Speaker 3: go to a decision closer to even money even plus

546
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:59,280
Speaker 3: one ten at the best number out there. The biggest

547
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:01,400
Speaker 3: threat to a finish in this fight or the biggest

548
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 3: threats Tavera's via knockout, has pillow ish hands and tends

549
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 3: to be throwing a lot more leg kicks later in

550
00:26:08,280 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 3: his career, or Gregory Rodriguez via submission, and as Billy

551
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 3: pointed out, Rodriguez's best accomplishment in jiu jitsu is winning

552
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:19,200
Speaker 3: a blue belt title. He tends to get the back

553
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:20,959
Speaker 3: on a lot of his opponents. He's really good at

554
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:24,720
Speaker 3: taking the back, not as good at finishing from that position.

555
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 3: And Brad Taveres is not only very durable, I believe

556
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 3: he's never been submitted in his professional career. He's not

557
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 3: in twenty eight professional fights, and he does have very

558
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,720
Speaker 3: good first layer takedown defense too. I do expect Rodriguez

559
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:42,640
Speaker 3: to get his back at some point. I may even

560
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 3: expect Taveras to wobble Roderiguez at some point. It seems

561
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 3: like Rodriguez gets wobbled in nearly all of his fights too.

562
00:26:49,600 --> 00:26:54,480
Speaker 3: But ultimately, I think both of them don't necessarily have

563
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 3: the threat to finish. Where the other is potentially weakest,

564
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,360
Speaker 3: you're most vulnerable to being finish. Just as I said,

565
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 3: Taveres doesn't carry enough power in his hands to really

566
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 3: threaten the knockout, and I think his submission defense is

567
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:09,560
Speaker 3: good enough to fend off Rodriguez even if he's getting grappled.

568
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:11,119
Speaker 3: So I like this fight to go the distance, to

569
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:15,480
Speaker 3: go all fifteen minutes. I expect Rodriguez to win that decision,

570
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 3: But I would never count Brad Tavera's out of a

571
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:20,920
Speaker 3: fight that is going all fifteen minutes. Very good record

572
00:27:21,080 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 3: in decisions across his career, thirteen and four across that

573
00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,640
Speaker 3: twenty eight fight career. So Brad Tavera's probably the value

574
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 3: side of the Mounty line. But I like this fight

575
00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:30,679
Speaker 3: to go over two and a half rounds or to

576
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:32,880
Speaker 3: reach a decision, which does benefit the under up.

577
00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:36,280
Speaker 1: And Billy for your best bet, the line is actually

578
00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 1: moving towards where you want to bet it. I think

579
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:42,320
Speaker 1: right as far as the price, you're getting a better price.

580
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 1: So the line is going against you. I would imagine

581
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:45,880
Speaker 1: here with Jeremia Wells.

582
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, this one's been all over the place, depend on

583
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:49,919
Speaker 4: when you look. He was a heavier favorite, then it

584
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,199
Speaker 4: came down. It seems like it's going back up today.

585
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:54,439
Speaker 4: So okay, tough one. If you're trying to play the

586
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 4: line movement game. I just like Wells here, not going

587
00:27:56,800 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 4: to say it's the best bet, more of a final bet,

588
00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:00,440
Speaker 4: you know. I'm going to say, you know, for a

589
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:02,919
Speaker 4: little behind the scenes here, Zerillo did not have his

590
00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:05,320
Speaker 4: best bet in until late here. I would love to

591
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 4: change my best bet to his I think that's actually

592
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 4: a great call. Brad Tavares just one of the He's

593
00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 4: like a classic tough out like he doesn't look like

594
00:28:11,640 --> 00:28:14,119
Speaker 4: he does anything all that well, but he's just super

595
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 4: hard to look good against. But no, I do look wells.

596
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 4: He lost his first UFC fight last time, in a

597
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,680
Speaker 4: fight he was dominating, got choked unconscious in the third round.

598
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 4: Always Cardio issues extremely good grappler, probably the best grappler

599
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,159
Speaker 4: in the division at this point. I'd say in just

600
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 4: like pure grappling, But man does he guess out and

601
00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 4: it doesn't look good when he does. To his credit,

602
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:37,640
Speaker 4: rather than tap out to the choke, he just went

603
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 4: to sleep. So I always like people that are going

604
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 4: to fight for my money. You know, tapping to a

605
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,160
Speaker 4: choke is you kind of don't have to if you

606
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 4: instead of tapping, you could have been doing this and

607
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 4: fighting the choke like that. Minus one forty eight is

608
00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 4: where I got him. I think minus one fifty five

609
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 4: or so is the best you can find out anywhere

610
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 4: in there. Also a classic one if you want to

611
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,880
Speaker 4: bet him by finish or him early and then try

612
00:28:58,920 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 4: to come back in live on Griffin. Even if you're

613
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,080
Speaker 4: holding this minus one fifty or so pre fight ticket.

614
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 4: If Griffin ballooons up to plus three hundred plus four

615
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:09,800
Speaker 4: hundred because Wells dominates early, I'm headding off on that one.

616
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 4: As much as I like Jeremiah Wells, I could have

617
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 4: got like plus one thousand nine as opponent last time,

618
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:16,640
Speaker 4: didn't take it, have been mad about it ever since.

619
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 4: So if you see those opportunities on Max Payne, Griffin,

620
00:29:20,000 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 4: definitely take that. You're gonna be real sad if it

621
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 4: goes that way, as I was.

622
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:27,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like gryffin Live, and I also like against

623
00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 3: one of the other beats, Zach Pawoga. I think Live

624
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 3: after the first round as well. Goose got very dangerous

625
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:35,040
Speaker 3: in the first round and then should completely fall apart

626
00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 3: in Paloga more regrinder. I could see him actually winning

627
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 3: a decision there. I wouldn't be super surprised if those

628
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,600
Speaker 3: props cash that, like plus four hundred plus four to fifty.

629
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 3: But yeah, Pawoga Griffin both I think solid live bets.

630
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 3: And you know this is other than that, like a

631
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 3: pretty good card to gather information for future fights. As

632
00:29:55,840 --> 00:29:58,160
Speaker 3: I said, a number of debutans not a lot of

633
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 3: information and not a lot of fight that I'm particularly

634
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 3: interested in betting. Probably gonna have under two and a

635
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 3: half or three units total risk across this card, but

636
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 3: uh yeah, a couple of good live spots worth attacking,

637
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 3: and I'll post all of my live spots that I'll

638
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:13,440
Speaker 3: be targeting on Twitter.

639
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, real quick on that. I think, like every pre

640
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 4: fight beat I have for almost every I'm gonna be

641
00:30:19,960 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 4: looking to hedge live, like I partially just not feeling

642
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 4: super confident about the side of'm on. But some of

643
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 4: them are just such clear binary fights. I like your

644
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:31,040
Speaker 4: point with Pauga. The only thing I don't like there

645
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 4: is you know, he went down to two o five

646
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:34,719
Speaker 4: where his frame fits better, but like the guys at

647
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 4: two o five are just better than at heavyweight, so

648
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 4: it's kind of a catch twenty two there, even with

649
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 4: the cardio if he's cutting significant weight. But yeah, I

650
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 4: think this is one of the better live betting cards

651
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 4: in a long time because we have so many fights

652
00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 4: where one guy's got the finishing equity. A lot of

653
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 4: Brazilians and or Brazilian jiu jitsu guys who love that

654
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 4: one round dump the take, try to squeeze you to death,

655
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,120
Speaker 4: and then if that doesn't work, kind of don't have

656
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 4: a plan B. So that's a really good take. I'm

657
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 4: gonna be hedging almost everything.

658
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 1: I have here playing the live movement game Wells. BETMGM,

659
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 1: as we record on a Friday morning, is offering minus

660
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 1: one fifty on Jeremiah Wells right now, So there you go.

661
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 1: I'll do it here on the UFC Betting Preview episode

662
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 1: here on the Action Network Podcast UFC Vegas eighty six,

663
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 1: four o'clock Eastern Time. The prelim start Saturday, and then

664
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,840
Speaker 1: the main card at seven o'clock. We are presented by

665
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 1: our friends at bet MGM. Find more from Shawn and

666
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 1: Billy as Sean ts. You can find Sewan on Twitter

667
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 1: at Sean Zillo for any updated picks as well as

668
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,720
Speaker 1: what he might be looking towards, with more information coming

669
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 1: out before Saturday afternoon on the Action website as well.

670
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 1: Don't forget to download the free award winning Action Network

671
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 1: app to follow these guys and their picks. Best of

672
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:48,720
Speaker 1: luck with all of your picks this weekend. There's a

673
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 1: lot more going on, understandably, so best of luck to you.

674
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 1: We'll see you next time on the Action Network Podcast

675
00:31:53,760 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 1: presented by BETTMGPP Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

676
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,440
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

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Speaker 1: help is available twenty four seven at one eight hundred

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Speaker 1: gambler