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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Mollman of the Action Network. I am

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Speaker 1: live from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined

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Speaker 1: as always by my calls, my companion, my compadre, my BFF,

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Speaker 1: professional better So I'm in Hunter earro So I'm.

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Speaker 2: In Hello Chad, how are we doing? Brother?

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Speaker 1: Listen? I'm a professional?

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Speaker 2: You are?

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Speaker 1: I have not spoken since I fell asleep watching the

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Speaker 1: Bulls get blown out by the New Orleans Pelicans last night,

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Speaker 1: so I'm ready to roll. I hope it's not too

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Speaker 1: painful for our listeners. Today's o NFL Week eight Best

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Speaker 1: Bets episode, where Simon and I narrow down our five

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Speaker 1: picks and the favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football

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Speaker 1: Pickum contest presented by BET three six five. Sign up

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Speaker 1: now with Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com. We will also

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Speaker 1: get into the foxhol give our Tommy John Big Balls

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Speaker 1: bet of the week, discuss Simon's biggest bets are boosted,

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Speaker 1: money Line, Underdog Parlay, the Underdog Round Robin, and so

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Speaker 1: much more. Bets are rolling in lines are moving, decisions

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Speaker 1: need to be made. As our volume podcast boss Colin

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Speaker 1: Coward likes to say, because there's a sea of money

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Speaker 1: out there. As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented

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Speaker 1: by Bet three six five and now new Bet three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars in bonus bets

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Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorite,

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Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to

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Speaker 1: get two hundred dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets

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Speaker 1: can be used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more.

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Speaker 1: Whatever the moment. It's an ever ordinary. A bet three

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Speaker 1: sixty five must be twenty one or older in president

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Speaker 1: in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: we're eighteen and older. In Kentucky, gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply as always on Thursdays during

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Speaker 1: the season. We want to hear how the wise guys

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Speaker 1: are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's how influential we are.

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Speaker 1: The lines move based on our conversations. The pros feel

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Speaker 1: compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon, let's do

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Speaker 1: sharp calls.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there, I'm talking Rain.

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Speaker 1: Rain telephone range.

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Speaker 2: Somebody said, maybe.

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Speaker 3: What you do man?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, let's run through it. I think the books and

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Speaker 4: the professionals think this is.

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Speaker 2: Going to be a bad week for the public.

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Speaker 4: That the public is about the walk into it after

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Speaker 4: getting fat for two straight weeks. Chad so off the

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Speaker 4: top of a game I love. I don't know if

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Speaker 4: Chad's come around yet. The Rams you love them? Are

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Speaker 4: you still?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Well, I know listen, I know the wise guys are

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Speaker 1: all over it. I know it all over it. Everyone's

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Speaker 1: been talking about it. The plus three. I'll probably bet it.

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Speaker 1: But I'm doing it because you're on it, and everyone's

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Speaker 1: saying I should be on it now everyone.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that was my number one big call after our

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Speaker 4: show is just make sure people take the Rams.

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Speaker 2: Listen to the show. So I'm sure we'll talk a

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Speaker 2: little bit more about that one.

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Speaker 4: So just run through it real quick. They love the Rams,

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Speaker 4: love the Browns. Another game that you know, we talked

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Speaker 4: a little bit about love the Jags obviously the Colts.

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Speaker 4: I've been shocked by this Colts line movement, have you?

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Speaker 4: I mean, I am shocked that this is down now

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Speaker 4: at five and a lot of books.

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Speaker 1: So well, I'm not because it was my exact decision

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Speaker 1: and I tend to move the lines.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but it was just it's just crazy it moved

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Speaker 4: off the key number of six. So yeah, another game

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Speaker 4: will dobvise you dive more into if we're gonna take

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Speaker 4: down our contest Miami aside, We're not really on professionals

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Speaker 4: actually love that side. I'm on the opposite of this

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Speaker 4: one here. I like Atlanta a lot of product talk.

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Speaker 4: Do you really like the Bucks in this bounce back spot?

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Speaker 4: Kind of a desperate team. I guess another game as

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Speaker 4: well that I'm a little decided on was the Bills

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Speaker 4: in Seahawks. Seems like a lot of the professionals love

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Speaker 4: the Bills. I guess I need to come around more

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Speaker 4: than a Mark Cooper is a big deal to them,

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Speaker 4: and that they have gotten healthier on defense, and this

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Speaker 4: actually is a nice spot.

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Speaker 2: I know.

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Speaker 4: Evan had a piece in his article about, you know,

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Speaker 4: just the exact scenario of Josh Allen these kind of spots,

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Speaker 4: he's actually not too bad. So that's when I'm probably

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Speaker 4: not on the right side taking to the Seahawks, so

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Speaker 4: I kind of see their perspective on that one. Bears,

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Speaker 4: maybe I'll given check get the Bears in our contest,

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Speaker 4: the professional that we be, love Love the Bears in

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Speaker 4: this upcoming spot, and the last two Raiders. I don't

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Speaker 4: know if I've got Chad's full confidence in this Raiders pick,

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Speaker 4: but I still think at the ten ten and a

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Speaker 4: half in the contest, it's very tempting. And obviously the

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Speaker 4: last one we both like the Dallas Cowboys. We've both

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Speaker 4: seen them come down now from six and a half,

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Speaker 4: five and a half, four and a half now they're

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Speaker 4: down to four most books, so that lines are exactly

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Speaker 4: what I thought.

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Speaker 2: It was gonna do. I think it should be three

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Speaker 2: and a half.

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Speaker 4: It seems like that's exactly where it's heading for that

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Speaker 4: Sunday night matchup. So yeah, right now we're on the

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Speaker 4: right side of a lot of games that we really like,

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Speaker 4: and then a couple sides that, you know, maybe I

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Speaker 4: need to get a little more bullied to the other

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Speaker 4: side because I just I don't know it's hard for

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Speaker 4: me to really want to back, especially in Miami a

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Speaker 4: mis three and a half. So yeah, interesting perspective this

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Speaker 4: week from a lot of professionals.

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Speaker 1: So betting against the public after a bad game. That's

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Speaker 1: sixty one percent since two thousand and five. There are

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Speaker 1: a couple scenarios in the in the games that we're

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Speaker 1: going to talk about that we'll cover that. But you

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Speaker 1: mentioned the public getting fat week seven, ten and four

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Speaker 1: against the spread, Week six ten three and one against

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Speaker 1: the spread. That does a bounce back after the public

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Speaker 1: had started in the first five weeks with its worst

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Speaker 1: start against the spread, meaning public is fifty one percent

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Speaker 1: or more of the bets on one side. It had

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Speaker 1: been the worst start for those games in our history

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Speaker 1: of tracking these games. The last two weeks twenty seven

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Speaker 1: and one, so huge bounce back. Someone is due for

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Speaker 1: a regression right now. Either the public is still catching

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Speaker 1: up to get to even or it is time for

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Speaker 1: the public to get slaughtered. We have learned a lot

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Speaker 1: this week trying to unpack our challenges. Specifically for the contest.

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Speaker 1: We've been leaning heavy into these ugly dogs, these trend

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Speaker 1: picks that tend to go against the public. We may

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Speaker 1: still do that. At least now we know it's a weakness, right,

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Speaker 1: so if we do it and we get caught, but

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Speaker 1: it's not our fault. It's really it's really just the numbers,

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Speaker 1: not the ball and not bouncing our way Arizona plus

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Speaker 1: three and a half at Miami. Ah, I've heard the

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Speaker 1: same rumblings. The wise Guy's loving my Haami, Miami loving

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Speaker 1: the return of two. They like the cards. They're like

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Speaker 1: betting against the cars traveling in this short week. For me, ultimately,

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Speaker 1: this wasn't gonna make it like I bet the cards

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Speaker 1: at three and a half. I bet it because of

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Speaker 1: the number. It wasn't because of anything else. I just

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Speaker 1: wanted to hook with Kyler, who, by the way, as

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Speaker 1: a road dog second best against the spread mark in

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Speaker 1: that spot since two thousand and three, according to Evan, Like,

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Speaker 1: we're never going to get all the trends and mashups

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Speaker 1: to line up, but in this one, it doesn't feel

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Speaker 1: like we really have anything other than the number.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I just I'll play it up on Miami, just

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Speaker 4: because I know these guys who are taken mihim here

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Speaker 4: pretty sharp, and you know they have their reasons, and

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Speaker 4: I think at three and a half. Arizona totally get it,

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Speaker 4: but at three I'll go with the Miami and they're

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Speaker 4: just how much worse can I get for this team?

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Speaker 4: Like this feels like this is it for them in

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Speaker 4: their season. That's why it feels a little bit like

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Speaker 4: two is rushing back here and that they know that

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Speaker 4: if they don't win this one, it's basically over right.

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Speaker 4: I mean, they're just there'd be too big of a

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Speaker 4: whole for them to get out of. So you're right,

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Speaker 4: I'm happy we're actually avoiding this game.

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Speaker 1: I'm not. I'm not upset avoiding Atlanta minus two and

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Speaker 1: a half. It's a divisional game with road fave, not

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Speaker 1: a spot we would historically love. But again this season

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Speaker 1: home dogs three nine and one thirty eight percent, right

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Speaker 1: past two seasons, home divisional dogs, home divisional dogs, No Godwin,

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Speaker 1: no Mike Evans kirk off of a loss forty and

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Speaker 1: twenty six fifth best of two hundred and eighty quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: since two thousand and three. And unless you think we

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Speaker 1: can't back a road public fave starting in the twenty

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Speaker 1: three season until this past week, road public favorites sixty

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Speaker 1: two percent against the spread, something is going on in

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Speaker 1: the past two years that we're going to have to

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Speaker 1: decide is is it a trend? Is it a lack

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Speaker 1: of parody? Like what is happening here that we're gonna

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Speaker 1: have to unpack? I know, wise guys like the Bucks,

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Speaker 1: I would be with you. I still like the Falcons.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I still like the Falcons. But there's another routine

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Speaker 4: that we talked about the Bears. I had much rather

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Speaker 4: take where it's like, yes, that that game I could

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Speaker 4: see going a certain way, where this game we always

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Speaker 4: talk about this the NFC South, Sometimes you really never know, right,

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Speaker 4: Like this game could easily just be Tampa runs it

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Speaker 4: down Atlanta's throat and you know they never get a

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Speaker 4: going Atlanta, right, And.

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Speaker 2: That's that's the fear here.

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Speaker 4: That to me is what I'm looking at, where it's

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Speaker 4: like there is a path for the Bucks. We're on

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Speaker 4: that other game. I just I don't know how the

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Speaker 4: Bears uncovered and I can easily see the Bears going

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Speaker 4: up right, I can see that once Daniels is officially

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Speaker 4: that I talked about, I think that get up three

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Speaker 4: and a half. So I think we'll get good line

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Speaker 4: value on that game. Where this game i'd be shocked

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Speaker 4: at this point because there's so much professional money coming

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Speaker 4: in on this buck side that this number ever gets

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Speaker 4: up to three, three and a half.

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Speaker 1: All right, This next game Tennessee at Detroit, they got

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Speaker 1: down to ten and a half. I bet it at

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Speaker 1: ten and a half. It's back at eleven. It doesn't matter.

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Speaker 2: If you have one ass cheek and three toes, I

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Speaker 2: will beat your rass.

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Speaker 1: You said you had this power rated closer to fourteen.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Since we spoke, the Titans have basically admitted they're done.

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Speaker 1: They've traded their best wide receiver in DeAndre Hopkins. They

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Speaker 1: traded one of their starting linebackers. Neither of those moves

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Speaker 1: will help them hold a first half lead, which they've

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Speaker 1: blown three times this year. They are still tied with

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Speaker 1: Baltimore for giving up the second most second the most

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Speaker 1: second half points this year. Jared Goff thirty and ten

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Speaker 1: against the spread indoors the past four seasons, the Lions

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Speaker 1: seventy percent against the spread the past four seasons, best

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Speaker 1: stretch since nineteen eighty like credible it. We've put so

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Speaker 1: much emphasis on historical trends and not enough on player

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Speaker 1: coach matchup. I wanted this to be our big balls.

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Speaker 1: You have overruled me because last week I got to

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Speaker 1: choose the Browns and it did not go well for us.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, I would have taken the Browns

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Speaker 1: again this week, but in our history, we have never

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Speaker 1: taken that's not true and eleven point favorite as our

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Speaker 1: big balls never.

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Speaker 4: I can tell you a game I can remember off

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Speaker 4: the top of my head, and we used to be

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Speaker 4: able to pick Thursday night games in our contest. We

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Speaker 4: took the New England Patriots and Tom Brady as like

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Speaker 4: a I don't even know it might have been like

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Speaker 4: a thirteen point favorite on the road and he had

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Speaker 4: a last second touchdown for us to cover that number.

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Speaker 2: So that's that's the number that just pops in my

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Speaker 2: head of like that was scarring for me.

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Speaker 4: I don't think we ever took a big favorite since

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Speaker 4: then because it was just we needed so much luck.

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Speaker 1: Where you're that is that is your superpower, a rain

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Speaker 1: man like ability to remember every single win and loss

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Speaker 1: and moments like that.

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Speaker 2: We talked about this.

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Speaker 4: Though this line's number to me fell too short, it

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Speaker 4: makes me feel good that it's coming back up because

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Speaker 4: it's like I couldn't believe there was groups coming in

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Speaker 4: and bet in this Tennessee side where it's like there's

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Speaker 4: so many other dogs I'd rather invest my money. And

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Speaker 4: I'm shocked that people are trying to move this line.

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Speaker 2: And you're right now.

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Speaker 4: We're seeing up to eleven and a half too in

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Speaker 4: a lot of books. So that actually makes me feel

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Speaker 4: better because I'm with you. I bet at ten and

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Speaker 4: a half, bet at eleven. It's like, Okay, this number

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Speaker 4: should not be going down, that should be going up.

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Speaker 2: And now it is.

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Speaker 4: Matchup wise, though, we love this matchup in so many

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Speaker 4: different ways.

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Speaker 2: For Detroit.

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Speaker 4: We both said the only way they lose if they

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Speaker 4: beat themselves. They just have so many different ways that

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Speaker 4: beat you offensively. We know golf is due for a

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Speaker 4: letdown week. Maybe they're looking ahead to next week right

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Speaker 4: when they're playing Green Bay, and that could be another

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Speaker 4: reason they don't, you know, put it all together here.

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Speaker 4: But my model likes this. I like this, Chad likes this.

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Speaker 4: It feels like it's unavoidable.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna have this. Lions in our contest.

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Speaker 1: Huh. So I did do a little free show sneak

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Speaker 1: peek at the lines in the contest. Lions were eleven

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Speaker 1: and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd be fine with that because that's that's a

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Speaker 2: dead number. Honestly.

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Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting because there were other ones that.

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Speaker 4: Of course they're gonna win this game twenty one to ten,

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Speaker 4: and we'll be like, god damn it.

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Speaker 1: And like, look like we we've talked about the Jags,

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Speaker 1: We've talked about the Bears, We've talked about the Colts.

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Speaker 1: Like there's a lot of lines that have moved aggressively

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Speaker 1: against us since we first started talking about them, even

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Speaker 1: on Sunday. So I think it's going to be challenging.

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Speaker 1: Eleven and a half is a tough one, like we

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Speaker 1: rarely have put that in the contest. But you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm glad we're on the same page at least. I thought,

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Speaker 1: like this morning when we were talking about the Lions

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Speaker 1: and I was all in on it and you were hesitant,

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Speaker 1: I thought, it's because you just didn't like the game.

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Speaker 2: So I don't think it takes balls. I'll be honest

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Speaker 2: like this, I got no reservation taking this one. Why not.

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Speaker 4: They've been good to us this year, and like we

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Speaker 4: just said, this to me, doesn't feel like the spot

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Speaker 4: they let us down. I think it's next week that

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Speaker 4: we see Detroit kind of wavering.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well, then guess what It's time Simon for

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Speaker 1: our big ball bet of the Week, presented by Tommy John.

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Speaker 1: If you've got the balls, Tommy John has the support.

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Speaker 1: Great games start with great underwear, and Tommy John makes

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Speaker 1: the greatest. I pulled back a little bit. Yes, I

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Speaker 1: didn't want to.

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Speaker 2: God, we're still another half the show to do, you know, I.

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Speaker 1: Didn't want to blow it out. Yeah, all right, we're

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Speaker 1: talking about the Jacksonville Jaguars. Look, the Jags were at

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Speaker 1: four and a half, got down to four. It's still

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Speaker 1: at four at three six five, but it's three and

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Speaker 1: a half in a lot of places. We were tempted

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Speaker 1: by Green Bay, and you got a rare Sunday night

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Speaker 1: sharp call saying we were on the wrong side. I

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Speaker 1: don't think that has ever happened, rain Man. You can

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Speaker 1: tell me if I'm wrong.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I mean, guys love talking shit, so of course.

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Speaker 1: No professional has ever called you to wave you off.

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Speaker 4: After multiple That was the more surprising part. It was

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Speaker 4: a bunch of guys, right, That was what was crazy.

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Speaker 1: So what gives here.

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Speaker 2: A lot?

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Speaker 4: I think we talked about matchup wise, this isn't that

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Speaker 4: beat of a matcher for the Jaguars. Same thing with

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Speaker 4: that Rams matchup against the Rams, like surprisingly good matchup

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Speaker 4: for two teams that people perceive is bad and that

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00:16:07,120 --> 00:16:10,000
Speaker 4: have had struggles this season, and both those teams have

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Speaker 4: suffered from just bad luck and you know, and a

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Speaker 4: couple things and bounce these teams ways. And I think

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Speaker 4: the same thing goes with the Jaguars here, and I

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Speaker 4: talked about Tank Digsby, I think is a big deal.

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Speaker 2: This is a guy who can just take it up

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Speaker 2: the middle and you know, just thump guys. He's like

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Speaker 2: Marshawn Lynch type.

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Speaker 4: And that's a weakness for green Bay, Like you can

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Speaker 4: run the ball in this team, and green Bay this

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Speaker 4: season has been very dependent defensively on turnovers. And I

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Speaker 4: know we have a guy walking in here in Trevor

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Speaker 4: Lawrence who does turn the ball over, but this year,

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Speaker 4: if you go back and look, he's also had some

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Speaker 4: really bad turnover luck that is regressed and should keep

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Speaker 4: on regressing. So I just like this matchup for them

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Speaker 4: and green Bay wise, you know, I know we can

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Speaker 4: get into the whole thing with the Florida Heat them

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Speaker 4: going down there and then obviously another look ahead spot

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Speaker 4: for them where they're playing.

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Speaker 2: Detroit next week. At a lot to like about this,

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Speaker 2: and then there was a couple of trends.

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Speaker 4: I thought it was interesting from Evan about it's not

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Speaker 4: that big of a deal and skipping the bye week

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Speaker 4: coming back from England. Surprisingly like teams actually aren't that

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Speaker 4: bad in those type of scenarios. So we talked about

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Speaker 4: though the line to me, you should have been three

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Speaker 4: and a half. We're about to hit that breaking point

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Speaker 4: right of it flipping to being value on Green Bay,

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Speaker 4: So it's gonna be unfortunate if it is three and

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Speaker 4: a half of our contest. And that's what we get

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Speaker 4: for always waiting to pick on Thursday, because like I

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Speaker 4: got Cold six and a half on Tuesday in our contest,

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00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:33,840
Speaker 4: and I got the Jaguars four and a half. So

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Speaker 4: we try to be honorable and wait here to put

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Speaker 4: our picks in. And it looks like we're gonna miss

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Speaker 4: the line value on two of these games. So I'm

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Speaker 4: opening it's still four and a half. I hope people

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Speaker 4: out there listening can still get the four because that's

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Speaker 4: what I bet. I have not touched anything Jags three

355
00:17:46,760 --> 00:17:49,159
Speaker 4: and a half, but I'd still do it. It's just

356
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Speaker 4: try to get the four. The four is such a

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Speaker 4: key number. I can't tell you any times I've been

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Speaker 4: saved by a push when it lands right on four.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's definitely going to be at three and a

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Speaker 1: half in the contest, I think Jack I've checked, so

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Speaker 1: it's gonna be a tough call for us. I'm not

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Speaker 1: loving the Jags at three and a half. I feel

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Speaker 1: like we're and we talked about this all the time.

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Speaker 2: I'm want to scare you off, Chad, Well.

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Speaker 1: How much does the line matter in the contest? Like

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Speaker 1: it isn't that often, right, but in a year in

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Speaker 1: which the final point totals have been so close, right,

368
00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:35,960
Speaker 1: the variance, the percentage value of that half point just

369
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Speaker 1: becomes that much bigger. So I'm not loving the idea

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Speaker 1: of having the Jags at three and a half.

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't worry about that because when we talked about it.

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Speaker 4: So far this season, I think we've had three games

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Speaker 4: that were decided at two and a half where the

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Speaker 4: hook did matter on the two and a half, and

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Speaker 4: then we've had two games that decided by the six

376
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Speaker 4: and a half. So we got the five and a

377
00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:58,200
Speaker 4: half for the six and a half, we either covered

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Speaker 4: or we missed.

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Speaker 2: So I talked since two years ago.

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Speaker 4: I just don't think three is as port as it

381
00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 4: used to be, so I wouldn't let it totally throw

382
00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:08,679
Speaker 4: them off, like I could still see us getting the

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00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:11,080
Speaker 4: three and a half in there. I'm just talking strictly

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00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:14,919
Speaker 4: people putting real money down here. It's like get the

385
00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:18,320
Speaker 4: four like that's long term. That's how you protect against

386
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Speaker 4: that type of bullshit.

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Speaker 1: This is a luck game, you mentioned, is it luck? Yeah,

388
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:26,919
Speaker 1: it's the biggest luck game of the week, favoring the Jags.

389
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:31,240
Speaker 1: For a reminder, we do the luck rankings generally sixty

390
00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:34,359
Speaker 1: percent against the spread when there is a huge gap

391
00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:37,520
Speaker 1: in luck. Nick Giffin, Sean Kerner, or Billy Ward our

392
00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:42,879
Speaker 1: analytics team put this formula together. It separates the signals

393
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Speaker 1: from the noise and can predict regression when teams are

394
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Speaker 1: likely to have more luck going their way and the

395
00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:53,400
Speaker 1: bad luck not going their way or going against them anymore.

396
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Speaker 1: The Packers are a great example of that, and you

397
00:19:56,560 --> 00:20:00,199
Speaker 1: just mentioned it. They've been feasting on turnovers, but if

398
00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:02,080
Speaker 1: you look at their underlying metrics, and you've said this

399
00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:07,560
Speaker 1: all year, their overall defense isn't that good, like amongst

400
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:09,639
Speaker 1: the worst in the league and early down success rate.

401
00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:10,960
Speaker 3: So the.

402
00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:16,160
Speaker 1: Matchup, the way the line is moving is indicative of

403
00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:22,320
Speaker 1: the underlying stats and expectations of some bad luck not

404
00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:25,639
Speaker 1: going against the Jags anymore. So that's why it's their

405
00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:27,359
Speaker 1: big balls, big falls.

406
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Speaker 4: Before the past two weeks, I would just tell the

407
00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 4: public this is like the definition of a trap. But

408
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:36,119
Speaker 4: they've just been stepping in a bunch of traps and

409
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,000
Speaker 4: they're not getting caught, so they're the ones laughing. But

410
00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:41,320
Speaker 4: this is like everything I think of, and you as

411
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:43,760
Speaker 4: well of, Like you're about to step in. You think

412
00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:45,440
Speaker 4: you've got a good number, Oh they're giving you even

413
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:46,359
Speaker 4: better number.

414
00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:47,359
Speaker 2: Now at three and a half.

415
00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:51,080
Speaker 4: Usually this is a weary sign where you know ninety

416
00:20:51,080 --> 00:20:52,600
Speaker 4: percent of the bets, ninety percent of the money are

417
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:54,920
Speaker 4: coming on Green Bay, and it's now moved through one

418
00:20:55,000 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 4: key number.

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00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:56,760
Speaker 2: That's a big deal.

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Speaker 1: Simon our sponsor, Tommy John. As bad as my voice

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Speaker 1: All right, INDI at Houston, this was my EXAC decision.

430
00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:36,080
Speaker 1: I better at six and a half, You better at

431
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:36,720
Speaker 1: six and a half?

432
00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 2: Sharp? Sharp?

433
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 1: It was yeah, totally sharp. I'm sharp. It was my

434
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:45,040
Speaker 1: EXAC decision at when it was at six. It's now

435
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:48,439
Speaker 1: down to five. There are places where it's going to

436
00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:52,640
Speaker 1: four and a half. I don't like it as much now,

437
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:57,720
Speaker 1: given how much come down. I do still like the matchup.

438
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:02,440
Speaker 1: I know everyone is so fixated on Anthony Richardson and

439
00:22:02,600 --> 00:22:06,680
Speaker 1: how bad his completion percentage is, and it is historically bad,

440
00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 1: it's terrible. But Jonathan Taylor returned to practice, right, yep.

441
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 1: If we are looking back to what we talked about

442
00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:18,880
Speaker 1: on Tuesday, where we have been making sort of blind

443
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:23,480
Speaker 1: bets on bad teams and the number and bad quarterbacks

444
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:28,680
Speaker 1: regardless of the coaching skill, all that this actually fits

445
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 1: the framework of what we like in a big underdog.

446
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 1: We think we're getting value on the number. But they've

447
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 1: got their best skill player behind their most dominant unit,

448
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 1: which is their offensive line, which is the best run

449
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:45,720
Speaker 1: blocking unit in football. And Shane Steichen, who's a really

450
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:49,359
Speaker 1: good play caller, gets his top weapon back for his

451
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 1: best unit. So, like, I know, Anthony Richardson like his

452
00:22:54,920 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 1: comps at historically Josh Freeman, Derek Anderson, JaMarcus Russell. That's

453
00:23:01,960 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 1: the accuracy comb still like the cults.

454
00:23:07,400 --> 00:23:09,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I always try not to be too hard

455
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 4: on the kid because it's his ninth game the Pros,

456
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 4: and you know, we talked coming into it. He played

457
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 4: seventeen games total in his career, and it was just,

458
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:19,400
Speaker 4: you know, we were joking before the show about bow Knicks.

459
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:23,280
Speaker 4: The guy played, you know, feels like six years in college.

460
00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 2: I think in twenty eighteen he.

461
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,240
Speaker 4: Was SEC rookie or whatever it was of the year,

462
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,080
Speaker 4: Freshman of the year. And it's like we Richardson didn't

463
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 4: have that, right, he just has not had the reps.

464
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,360
Speaker 4: And you've seen bow Knicks, even Jane Daniels, a guy

465
00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 4: who played I feel like four years in college. Like

466
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:38,919
Speaker 4: it's a big deal like that kind of getting all

467
00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:41,199
Speaker 4: this type of reps. So me and you know the

468
00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 4: deal with Richardson here, like we are going to be

469
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 4: screaming his name when it's third and three and he

470
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:48,919
Speaker 4: sails the ball over a wide open guy in the flat,

471
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 4: Like that's the brutal part with him this season, you know.

472
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:55,560
Speaker 4: But we always talk about the math and the numbers,

473
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:57,640
Speaker 4: and this number was too high. I still think it's

474
00:23:57,680 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 4: too high, so I wouldn't be terrified putting the contest.

475
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,919
Speaker 4: But again, it'd be nice to get the five and

476
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 4: a half over the four and a half. But it's

477
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:06,360
Speaker 4: not that big of a deal for us, right, We're

478
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 4: just as happy to get it in. But how do

479
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 4: you not like this game for an upset? Like this

480
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:15,719
Speaker 4: is just a Houston team that I think the public

481
00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:17,639
Speaker 4: is starting to realize a little bit that they're not

482
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 4: that great. There are some hols to this team, and

483
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 4: we've seen that since last year. Defense has been playing

484
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 4: CJ differently. Right, it's not as been as easy as

485
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 4: it was for the previous season rahim offensively, and we

486
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 4: talked the loss of Nico Collins to mean this matchup

487
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 4: is the biggest deal this guy has destroyed this Colts.

488
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 2: Team the past two years when he plays against them.

489
00:24:38,400 --> 00:24:40,800
Speaker 4: And even in those games, they were always close with

490
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:44,680
Speaker 4: Nico Collins. Now he's gone and we're getting Jonathan Taylor back,

491
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,240
Speaker 4: which I think is such a huge deal against another

492
00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:48,960
Speaker 4: weakness for Houston. Like a lot of these things we

493
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 4: talk about, they can be run on. So I'm with you, Chad,

494
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 4: like you know I feel about this. I love the

495
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:56,800
Speaker 4: Colts not only to cover this game, but pull the

496
00:24:56,880 --> 00:25:00,360
Speaker 4: upset off and wins. So I haven't waivered, but I'm

497
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 4: like you. It's like, man, we had six and a

498
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,879
Speaker 4: half in the contest that would look so so nice.

499
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:08,480
Speaker 4: So it's tough that the pros have just bet this down.

500
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting. You know. I log my bets in

501
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:14,399
Speaker 1: the app and I like to check in the morning

502
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 1: just as like a perverse you know, makes me feel

503
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:21,920
Speaker 1: better see how much better number? Yeah, did I get

504
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 1: the best of the number? And like the Colts plus

505
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 1: six and a half is the first bet that's listed,

506
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 1: and I keep seeing it go down. I'm like, I

507
00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 1: feel so good it even though it means nothing like.

508
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 2: People should be listening on Sunday Night Show, right, brother.

509
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:38,959
Speaker 1: Exactly, That's what it means, Like I see the Bears

510
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 1: plus one and a half, I'm like, oh my god,

511
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 1: are you fucking kidding?

512
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 4: That one was my favorite this week. Getting that at

513
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:45,639
Speaker 4: a plus one and a half. It wasn't just it

514
00:25:45,680 --> 00:25:47,440
Speaker 4: wasn't just up for a minute or two, it was up.

515
00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 4: I was betting it's still won the morning, so like

516
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:51,679
Speaker 4: it didn't flip until the next.

517
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 2: Morning on Monday. So that was another great one.

518
00:25:54,520 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 1: Maybe you flipped it, maybe, But one trend we have

519
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 1: been able to count on home division faves forty five

520
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 1: point seven percent against the spread since twenty fifteen, So

521
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:09,439
Speaker 1: another that one, Like we're bringing the trends in in

522
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:14,360
Speaker 1: the right way. They're complementing. They're not driving Baltimore to Cleveland.

523
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:19,920
Speaker 1: Like I threw this in because it's a big home

524
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,960
Speaker 1: dog and we don't have any metrics right now telling

525
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 1: us to back them. But I do wonder is are

526
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:30,159
Speaker 1: we going to get a dead cat bounce here? The

527
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:34,359
Speaker 1: Ravens are way overvalued coming off of a short week,

528
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:39,159
Speaker 1: Marlon Humphrey injured, Zay Flowers injured. They'll play, but the

529
00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:43,199
Speaker 1: Browns getting healthier, especially in the defensive backfield. Talk about

530
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:46,880
Speaker 1: selling high like the one question is did we miss

531
00:26:46,920 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 1: the best of the number because we didn't get it

532
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:52,359
Speaker 1: at ten. But Lamar is a favorite of more than three,

533
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 1: has been terrible. Yep, So like I don't, I don't

534
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 1: hate the Browns at nine and a half. I did

535
00:26:58,520 --> 00:26:59,919
Speaker 1: better at nine and a half. I didn't better at

536
00:26:59,920 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 1: it ten.

537
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a key moving like, that's what's tough.

538
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 4: I bet this at eleven eleven and a half, that's

539
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,160
Speaker 4: how high it got, and now it's all the way

540
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 4: down to a lot of books.

541
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:12,160
Speaker 2: I'm seeing eight and a half now, Chad. So I

542
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 2: like it. But this is exactly what you've talked about. Brother.

543
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 4: We're literally betting a bad team with a bad backup

544
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 4: quarterback against arguably the best team of football right now.

545
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 1: So I hate myself. I hate myself.

546
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:25,960
Speaker 4: Obviously I like the Browns, but you just said we're

547
00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 4: one and sixteen in the exact this exact spot. The

548
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,679
Speaker 4: bounds have not gone our way, So I think we

549
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,360
Speaker 4: should take the Browns. Obviously, it's a good number, and

550
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 4: you know you mentioned the injuries. The biggest one to

551
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 4: me is we talked about why we want to fade.

552
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 4: This Ravens team is a big favorite. The back door

553
00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 4: is always going to be open. I mean, they just

554
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:46,919
Speaker 4: I can't get over how bad their DC is, Like

555
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:50,160
Speaker 4: their defense should not be that big of a drop

556
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:53,280
Speaker 4: off from last season. It just shows how important coaching is, right,

557
00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 4: Like it's night and day the Ravens defense, when the

558
00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:58,760
Speaker 4: best defenses in football last year and now this year.

559
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 4: I mean, they're giving up them most points in football,

560
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:03,880
Speaker 4: which is crazy when you have teams like Carolina Panthers

561
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 4: out there.

562
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's such a big number.

563
00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 4: Chat, it's if me and you talk ourselves into bend

564
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:11,679
Speaker 4: at Sunday morning put in our contest.

565
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:12,720
Speaker 2: People do not be shocked.

566
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:15,159
Speaker 4: But I am so sorry ahead of time because this

567
00:28:15,240 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 4: is exactly the exact game we talked.

568
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 2: About avoiding because we've just been burned by it.

569
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:24,199
Speaker 1: You're so right. I hate myself for not even recognizing this.

570
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:25,720
Speaker 1: I spent the first.

571
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 2: Time to do though.

572
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:28,720
Speaker 4: That's what I mean, don't You shouldn't hate yourself. I've

573
00:28:28,800 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 4: made a lot of money. I live a good life

574
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,159
Speaker 4: betting these type of games. So it's yeah, but it's

575
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:34,720
Speaker 4: gonna come back around the.

576
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:38,200
Speaker 1: First ten hours of my week on Monday, identifying and

577
00:28:38,240 --> 00:28:41,720
Speaker 1: pinpointing a problem because I'd like us to be thoughtful,

578
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 1: and I'd like us to improve, and I would like

579
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:47,280
Speaker 1: us to just be good at this and be intellectually

580
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:50,719
Speaker 1: honest about what's going right and what's going wrong, and

581
00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 1: not just blindly bet the games we've always historically bet

582
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 1: because we're supposed to do it. And then I fall

583
00:28:57,080 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 1: into the freaking trap. Fall into a freaking trap. Yeah, God,

584
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:05,560
Speaker 1: I hate myself. You know what, I don't hate. I

585
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 1: don't hate taking the Cincinnati Bengals. You hate it? Yeah,

586
00:29:09,240 --> 00:29:11,400
Speaker 1: I think you think I'm walking into a trap.

587
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 2: No, No, Honestly, this game is a coin flip to me.

588
00:29:15,360 --> 00:29:18,520
Speaker 4: To me, it's two teams that whoever wins this, I'd

589
00:29:18,560 --> 00:29:20,440
Speaker 4: be like, Okay, they don't suck because right now, in

590
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 4: my perspective, this team is that I don't think either

591
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,040
Speaker 4: of these teams are that good, and they've been fortunate

592
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:27,479
Speaker 4: to play bad teams this season and they beat up

593
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:28,120
Speaker 4: on bad teams.

594
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 2: Right, both these teams.

595
00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 4: Have and in my mind, obviously the Eagles are way

596
00:29:32,920 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 4: more talented.

597
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 2: You know, this Bengals team defensively, they're horrible.

598
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:42,120
Speaker 4: Like if if Sirianni's true to his where and the

599
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 4: Eagles commit to the run and they don't get down

600
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:46,520
Speaker 4: seven to nothing and all of a sudden have Jalen

601
00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:48,440
Speaker 4: Hurts just dropping back the rest of the game, throwing

602
00:29:48,440 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 4: the ball fifty times. I do think they'll cover this

603
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 4: number and keep this close, especially at two and a half.

604
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:55,640
Speaker 4: But my thing is, Chad, if this guy down a

605
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 4: one and a half, I could take. I'll take Bengals

606
00:29:57,600 --> 00:29:58,280
Speaker 4: within the contest.

607
00:29:58,280 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 2: If this is one and a.

608
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 4: Half in contest, I'll take that because that's a good

609
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 4: number in this Eagles team.

610
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:05,480
Speaker 2: We talk all the time Hurts as an underdog, especially

611
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 2: on the road.

612
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 4: He is just not good statistically, like he does not

613
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:12,800
Speaker 4: win these type of games. And you know, Eagles defense

614
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 4: might be starting two rookies against Joe Burrow in this

615
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 4: passing offense. Isn't that a huge bonus for this Bengals team.

616
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 4: Like if Burro's gonna carve up anyone, this should be

617
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 4: the type of team he'd carve up a young, inexperienced

618
00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 4: team when he has two veteran wide receivers. So I

619
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 4: know where you're coming from this Bengals team. It's just

620
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 4: my fear is this Bengals team is just a bad team.

621
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 4: Like I get it. You beat up on the Giants

622
00:30:34,920 --> 00:30:37,800
Speaker 4: the Panthers, and you know, great, but now you're going

623
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 4: to play a team that we perceived to be a

624
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 4: legit playoff team.

625
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 2: The Eagles should step up here and beat this team.

626
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 2: So that's just my hesitation here.

627
00:30:45,240 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 1: Let me see if I can convince you, because I

628
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 1: actually I might like this game as much as I

629
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:52,240
Speaker 1: like the Bears. A plus one and a half. Wow,

630
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 1: Like I've got the better quarterback, a really good kicker

631
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 1: who drops bombs at less than a field goal, Joe

632
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 1: Burrow thanks to Evan, I know that Joe Burrow was

633
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 1: twenty two six and one when facing a team that

634
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 1: just covered the Eagles overall, sixty three percent against the

635
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 1: spread in his career, seventy percent against the spread against

636
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 1: teams that are over five hundred. We've seen the public

637
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 1: come in on the Eagles and this line has moved

638
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 1: to two and a half plus, and I think this

639
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 1: is big. We don't know the status of Dallas Goddard.

640
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 1: He might not play because of a hamstring injury. Didn't

641
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 1: practice yesterday. Jordan Mailatta out, so that's terrible. I listened

642
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:53,040
Speaker 1: to Raybon and Stuckey on the Sunday six Pack this

643
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 1: morning the Action Network podcast, Raybem made the point that

644
00:31:57,080 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 1: Fred Johnson Jordan Mailatta is backup, allows a pressure rate

645
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 1: of twenty two percent, the average for left tackles six percent,

646
00:32:07,960 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 1: and he's going to be going against Trey Hendrickson.

647
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, they'll have some of the counter that though there

648
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 4: are no dummies. But I agree with you, it's not ideal.

649
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:18,600
Speaker 4: But I felt the same thing last week. Why didn't

650
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:21,000
Speaker 4: want to take the Eagles? It was like, I guess

651
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 4: who has a way better d line than the Cincinnati team,

652
00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 4: the Giants, And it was neutered because they could run

653
00:32:25,840 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 4: the ball. And that's the key here, That's what I'm

654
00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 4: telling you. The key to this game is if Saquan

655
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 4: dominates this game, the Eagles will run away over it.

656
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:35,400
Speaker 4: This Bengals defense is that bad. But on the flip side,

657
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 4: you just said all those Joe Burrows scots are terrifying,

658
00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 4: like Joe should beat up on this team is But

659
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 4: the problem is we don't know we're getting week to

660
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:43,800
Speaker 4: week from Joe Burrow.

661
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 2: Chad.

662
00:32:44,320 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 4: I mean, that's that's what the risk injury has been

663
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 4: this season. Some weeks it looks like old Joe, who's

664
00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 4: starting for three hundred yards. You know, four touchdowns in

665
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 4: a game, and then you have a follow up week

666
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 4: where he can't complete third down passes. Right, he just

667
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 4: struggles because he has no control over the ball because

668
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 4: he can't feel the ball, Like that's the issue with

669
00:33:00,880 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 4: the grip on the ball with his wrists.

670
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 2: So you know that's the pushback for me.

671
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 4: But once again, Chad, if this is one and a

672
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 4: half on Sunday, you're feeling good about it, I'll bet

673
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 4: that number as well. I could be bullied and taking

674
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 4: Cincinnati here because I do think it's all about the

675
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 4: number in this matchup. Like you're right, the kicker is

676
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 4: a big deal in this game.

677
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 1: In the NBA, there's Bullyball on the favorites, there's Bully

678
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:27,920
Speaker 1: Bets Buffalo with Seattle. I like, I don't you mentioned it.

679
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 1: I'm fine if we pass it. Yeah, okay.

680
00:33:31,840 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 2: I don't know what to deal with it either.

681
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 4: I just know what the professionals like. They like the

682
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 4: bills and they like the bills of minus three. So

683
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:38,520
Speaker 4: if you want, if you want to take the bills

684
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 4: of the pros, make sure you get the three before

685
00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 4: it goes with three and a half.

686
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:44,320
Speaker 1: The one thing I would say is then that to

687
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 1: me says the professionals don't think Seattle is a very

688
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 1: good team, yep, because the Bills are bullies. They beat

689
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:55,880
Speaker 1: up on the bad teams and then they get beat

690
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 1: by the good times the good teams. The one outlier

691
00:33:58,480 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 1: is the Jets, who probably are a good team, but

692
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 1: they're poorly coached, bad attitude, make dumb mistakes.

693
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 4: It was a game that the Bills and Josh Allen

694
00:34:07,120 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 4: just you know, it doesn't match up all against that defense,

695
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,400
Speaker 4: and that historically has been the case for him the

696
00:34:11,480 --> 00:34:13,839
Speaker 4: last couple of years. But we already talked about Josh

697
00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 4: Allen's in god mode, no turnovers, fifteen touchdown.

698
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:19,320
Speaker 1: I'm skipping Chargers Saints. I don't think that'll ever to

699
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:22,040
Speaker 1: make the contest with Chargers minus seven, which is the

700
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 1: number I think you lean to. I don't have an

701
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 1: opinion on it.

702
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm on the Charger. But that's fine.

703
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:29,160
Speaker 1: We can keep it moving because, like I think, there's

704
00:34:29,200 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 1: other games we know we're going to want to put

705
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 1: in right Chicago minus two and a half, so let's

706
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:33,799
Speaker 1: talk about it.

707
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 2: Hungry Bears are violent bears.

708
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:40,200
Speaker 1: Jadeen Daniels did not practice on Wednesday. We both bet

709
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:42,400
Speaker 1: the Bears at one and a half, even with the

710
00:34:42,440 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 1: injury to Jade Daniels. I don't love we're betting against

711
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:48,880
Speaker 1: the line flip forty two betting against the line flip

712
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:53,960
Speaker 1: since twenty nineteen. But Kayleb Williams has been doing special

713
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 1: things undefeated in the second half this year against the spread.

714
00:34:57,719 --> 00:35:03,400
Speaker 1: Only other person who's Patrick Mahomes How bad? How bad

715
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 1: will Washington be with Marcus Mariota, like you pointed it

716
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:12,360
Speaker 1: out on Tuesday, how terrible he is. They've had twelve

717
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 1: punts this season, the fewest since nineteen fifty. They've been

718
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 1: perfect on fourth downs and nearly fifty percent on third downs.

719
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 1: All of that changes without Jayden and Daniels. So to me,

720
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:29,920
Speaker 1: I'm fine betting the Bears because I think we have

721
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 1: to think about this not as a line flip, but

722
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 1: as a new line with the Bears is less than

723
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 1: a field goal.

724
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:39,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, and the book makers are just like me, where

725
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 4: it's seven points of vye from Jane Daniels to Marcus Mariota.

726
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:44,760
Speaker 4: So like the line flip to me, makes total sense.

727
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:47,319
Speaker 4: They need to make that flip because anyone who has

728
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:48,840
Speaker 4: a model is going to see that this is just

729
00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 4: an off line. So sure, what mean you might get caught?

730
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,080
Speaker 4: Maybe we're stepping in here back in the Bears team, But.

731
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 1: Are we in the Foxhill? Are we in the Foxhol

732
00:35:58,080 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 1: with the Bears?

733
00:35:58,640 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 2: I'd love to be in the foxhewl on the Bear.

734
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:00,919
Speaker 2: That'd be really nice.

735
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 1: I would love to be in a foxhol with you

736
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 1: and the Bears.

737
00:36:04,840 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 2: Let's go.

738
00:36:05,560 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 1: That would be my dream foxhol me, you and the

739
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:14,399
Speaker 1: Chicago freaking Bears. We are in the fox whole.

740
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:16,719
Speaker 2: You know me, regardless of what's going on. I'm a

741
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 2: foxhole guy.

742
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 3: I commit to a team, I commit to a city.

743
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 2: I'm a foxhole guy. Just matchup wise, We've talked about it.

744
00:36:22,760 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 4: I love the way this defense can match up against

745
00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 4: the Washington On offense.

746
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 2: We know Washington was gonna have a bunch of aggression

747
00:36:29,640 --> 00:36:30,319
Speaker 2: coming up right.

748
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 4: Their third down completion rate, it's impossible sustain that being

749
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 4: nine for nine off fourth downs. You just can't sustain

750
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:42,319
Speaker 4: that type of consistency for the whole season, especially with

751
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 4: a young, inexperienced offense that they have with Jane Dales.

752
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 2: Now you say, well Mario is coming, that should be different.

753
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 4: I really do think Jane Doellens is that much better

754
00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 4: than Marcus Marioder. Like that's why I'm so willing to

755
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 4: say the line move so much. It's just night and day.

756
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 1: That's not going out on a limb.

757
00:36:57,960 --> 00:37:00,680
Speaker 2: It's not. But people professionally wht think it is.

758
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 4: Where it's like they think Mario can do a lot

759
00:37:02,520 --> 00:37:04,240
Speaker 4: of the same stuff that he does, which.

760
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 2: Is, you know, being a mobile quarterback.

761
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:08,359
Speaker 4: And I think that there's more to jayde Daniels game

762
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 4: right now than Mark Smarrio. So my view of this

763
00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:14,719
Speaker 4: is just Bears are smart. Their coaching staff smart enough

764
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:17,080
Speaker 4: they'll just stack the box and they'll force Maria to

765
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 4: pass the ball.

766
00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:17,879
Speaker 2: Right.

767
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:20,640
Speaker 4: The key to this game will be stopping Brian Robinson

768
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:23,479
Speaker 4: and Austin Eckler, Like you stop the run game, force

769
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:26,000
Speaker 4: Maria to pass, especially on thirty and eights, Like that's

770
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 4: me and Chat are going to make our money on

771
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:29,879
Speaker 4: thirty and eights against Mariota, Like that's where we want

772
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:32,200
Speaker 4: to be. Where he's got to pass the ball over

773
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 4: ten yards and we're going to get a either stupid

774
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:36,960
Speaker 4: pass or a tip pass. Get some turnovers here with

775
00:37:37,000 --> 00:37:40,520
Speaker 4: this Bear secondary that's been so good this season offensively,

776
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 4: Bears I can't find the weakness in the matchup for

777
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 4: them against this Washington team. Like Washington this year has

778
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:48,399
Speaker 4: been lucky that they've been up in so many leads

779
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:50,040
Speaker 4: because it's easy for them to pin their ears back

780
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 4: and just rush the passer right, and that will not

781
00:37:52,880 --> 00:37:54,879
Speaker 4: be the case here. I think the Bears be able

782
00:37:54,880 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 4: to keep them off bound, especially if this game is close,

783
00:37:57,520 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 4: and the fact that it's still under three is the

784
00:37:59,560 --> 00:38:01,400
Speaker 4: key to me. Like, I just like that number a

785
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:03,680
Speaker 4: lot at two and a half. So yeah, people can

786
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 4: tell listen to this. It's one of my favorite Chalker

787
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 4: sides of the week, is this Bears matchup, especially coming

788
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:09,319
Speaker 4: off the bye week.

789
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 1: I've been trying to figure out which Chalky game, which

790
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 1: public game we're going to put in. I'm surprised that

791
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 1: you are like this so much more than back in

792
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:23,960
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. It just it strange to me. I mean,

793
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:26,239
Speaker 1: one of those games is not going to make it.

794
00:38:26,400 --> 00:38:28,799
Speaker 4: Say Joe Burrow in twenty twenty two. This is Joe

795
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:32,000
Speaker 4: Burrow in twenty twenty four. The guys the different quarterback.

796
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 1: What I'm saying is one of these games will not

797
00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 1: make it into our final five. And on Sunday night.

798
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:41,799
Speaker 1: It will be a fascinating conversation. Fascinating Matt Mitchell, do

799
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 1: not let us forget to talk about the Bengals or

800
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 1: the Bears on Sunday night. All right, Kansas City at

801
00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 1: Las Vegas plus nine and a half the Raiders.

802
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:00,320
Speaker 2: The autumn win is a rat of pillaging.

803
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:02,719
Speaker 1: Just for five my own games come down from ten.

804
00:39:02,880 --> 00:39:07,239
Speaker 1: Look Tuesday morning, we had three double digit favorites. Now

805
00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 1: we're down to one. The Browns have come down, the

806
00:39:10,600 --> 00:39:14,439
Speaker 1: Raiders have come down. We've bet the Raiders. We bet

807
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:19,040
Speaker 1: them at plus ten. This is a massive pros Joe's split.

808
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 1: We're doing this signmon in spite of the fact even

809
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 1: though Mahomes is only forty eight percent against the spread

810
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 1: as a favorite of more than three nine, six and

811
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:32,280
Speaker 1: two the past two seasons. In spite of the fact

812
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:36,440
Speaker 1: public road faves sixty one percent against the spread the

813
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:38,799
Speaker 1: past two years, and don't forget sixteen and two since

814
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:41,799
Speaker 1: the start of Week five, In spite of the fact

815
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:45,720
Speaker 1: Home Division dogs three nine to one this year thirty

816
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:48,640
Speaker 1: eight percent since the start of twenty three, only fifty

817
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:53,280
Speaker 1: one percent since twenty twenty. None of those are good

818
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:57,440
Speaker 1: road teams. Sixty one percent against the spread this season,

819
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 1: one in sixteen. We are in this exact spot this season,

820
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:11,839
Speaker 1: And in spite of the fact the Chiefs just eliminated

821
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 1: their biggest issue, which was getting a dependable receiver. In

822
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:22,520
Speaker 1: spite of the fact mahomes eleven to seven and one

823
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 1: against the spread against divisional opponents, like I know, this

824
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 1: is one of our big dog plays. I like Cleveland

825
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:32,359
Speaker 1: more than I like the Raiders.

826
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 4: That's fair in my eyes. There, it's the exact same.

827
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 4: It's the same as last week with the Browns and

828
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:40,320
Speaker 4: the Giants. There's no difference to me. We're just playing

829
00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:43,239
Speaker 4: the numbers here in the scenario, in the situation, And

830
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 4: just like those games I liked last week, this week,

831
00:40:46,560 --> 00:40:48,759
Speaker 4: I like both matchups for these big old dogs. I

832
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 4: like the matchup for the Raiders, not just defensively, all offensively.

833
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:54,400
Speaker 2: But I get the hesitation.

834
00:40:54,040 --> 00:40:56,359
Speaker 4: Chat we're back in the Raiders team that you know

835
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 4: you said it last week is historical. No team has

836
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 4: ever turned the ball over whatever it was, four times

837
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:04,760
Speaker 4: and just had all these awful things happen, they still

838
00:41:04,760 --> 00:41:07,160
Speaker 4: cover the number just because their coach kicked the random

839
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:08,680
Speaker 4: field goal. So I get where you're coming from this

840
00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 4: Raiders team. It's not for the faint of heart, and

841
00:41:12,160 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 4: I get why we might end up passing on this

842
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 4: one just because it was ten and a half in

843
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 4: the contest key number. Now it's down to nine and

844
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 4: a half in contest, which is a big deal to me,

845
00:41:21,560 --> 00:41:23,160
Speaker 4: Like if we're not gonna get the best of the number,

846
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 4: especially with the dog shit team like this Raiders team,

847
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:27,840
Speaker 4: it's like, Okay, I could be bullied off of it,

848
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:30,680
Speaker 4: but you you being scared of Hopkins is one of

849
00:41:30,719 --> 00:41:33,640
Speaker 4: the funnier things that's happened this week. You acting like, oh,

850
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:35,320
Speaker 4: I got a bad number. This number is gonna go

851
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:37,279
Speaker 4: up now because Hopkins joined the team. It's like, in

852
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:40,520
Speaker 4: what world does Chad think Hopkins is moving this by

853
00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 4: even half a point.

854
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:43,399
Speaker 1: I don't think it's moving. I don't think it's moving

855
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:44,440
Speaker 1: it by half a point.

856
00:41:44,600 --> 00:41:46,319
Speaker 4: But you're acting like you got a bad number at ten,

857
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 4: as if it was going to keep going up, and

858
00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 4: it's like.

859
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:49,920
Speaker 1: No, no, no, no, I bet the number at ten. I'm

860
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:52,440
Speaker 1: glad I got it at ten. I'm thinking we got

861
00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:54,760
Speaker 1: a bad number at nine and a half or lower

862
00:41:55,160 --> 00:41:58,840
Speaker 1: for the contest because you say we bet this number,

863
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 1: but betting this number has not worked for us, and

864
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:05,520
Speaker 1: betting this number for the past two years has been

865
00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 1: a bad number. So it's not an automatic at less

866
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:13,960
Speaker 1: than ten for me to say, yes, this has to

867
00:42:14,000 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 1: be in the contest. And when you think about the Browns, like,

868
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 1: at least the Browns have a dominant defensive end, they

869
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:24,839
Speaker 1: have an all Pro cornerback in Denzel Ward. They have

870
00:42:25,000 --> 00:42:29,160
Speaker 1: like an offensive line that is getting healthier. They have

871
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 1: a better coach than the Raiders have. So those are

872
00:42:34,160 --> 00:42:38,080
Speaker 1: the factors that to me are making me lean Browns

873
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:38,840
Speaker 1: more than Raiders.

874
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:41,040
Speaker 4: No, I get it, you're a great salesman, but at

875
00:42:41,040 --> 00:42:43,479
Speaker 4: the end of the day, both these teams are bad.

876
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:46,960
Speaker 4: They're both playing with what we presume to be backup quarterbacks,

877
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:49,760
Speaker 4: and it's just there is, truly, to me, no difference.

878
00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:53,120
Speaker 4: It's just I just bet the numbers. Chad scared of it,

879
00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:55,960
Speaker 4: but it's like, this is what I do. So it's like, yeah,

880
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:58,440
Speaker 4: the losses sucked, but I still look at it that

881
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 4: it's just been bad luck, bad balances. So it's like

882
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:04,239
Speaker 4: I try not to have reacted too much. Yeah, if

883
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 4: you don't want to put this Raiders one, and you

884
00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 4: rather take the Browns. I like the Browns as well,

885
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:09,399
Speaker 4: so it's like, I'm not going to fight you off

886
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 4: that one. My whole point of the best of the

887
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 4: Number is saying that ten and a half is a

888
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:15,080
Speaker 4: big deal and that we're not getting ten and a

889
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:16,880
Speaker 4: half is the reason why I wouldn't put the Raiders

890
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:18,759
Speaker 4: in now. But what I still bet them at nine

891
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 4: and a half. Yeah, I still would take them at

892
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 4: nine and a half. It's just not as confident as

893
00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 4: I was as I was on Tuesday.

894
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 1: I love when you patronize me during.

895
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:28,520
Speaker 4: The show, well just because sometimes you say things, I'm

896
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:29,800
Speaker 4: just like, this guy's out of his mind.

897
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:32,080
Speaker 2: This guy is out of his mind.

898
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 1: All right, Let's get to a game that we agree with,

899
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:41,880
Speaker 1: Dallas at San Francisco. We like Dallas at plus four.

900
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:45,960
Speaker 1: It was at five and a half on Sunday. It

901
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:47,960
Speaker 1: was four and a half when you made it. Simon says,

902
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:53,240
Speaker 1: this is a true Joe bro split Cowboys off a bye.

903
00:43:54,000 --> 00:44:00,400
Speaker 1: From a sort of atmosphere point of view, couldn't be

904
00:44:00,440 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 1: worse for them right now. Not only was Jerry Jones

905
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:09,240
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago trying to threaten Cowboy's broadcasters

906
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:13,360
Speaker 1: because they were asking him hard questions. This week, he's

907
00:44:13,600 --> 00:44:17,960
Speaker 1: calling out Mike McCarthy's play calling a coach he could

908
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:20,920
Speaker 1: have fired after they were blown out at home in

909
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 1: the playoffs. Yeah, but decided to keep a coach who

910
00:44:24,400 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 1: he didn't support by signing anybody of any value in

911
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 1: the off season. We're still backing him because San Francisco,

912
00:44:32,520 --> 00:44:36,040
Speaker 1: I don't know who they're putting on the field. So

913
00:44:36,200 --> 00:44:38,080
Speaker 1: we like the Cowboys.

914
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:41,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, and we know the numbers on DAK. Dak is struggled,

915
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:42,800
Speaker 2: struggle as a dog.

916
00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:44,920
Speaker 4: But luckily I haven't had some great stuff in there

917
00:44:44,960 --> 00:44:47,840
Speaker 4: about McCarthy off of bye a week and same with

918
00:44:47,920 --> 00:44:50,200
Speaker 4: Dak on extended rest that they've actually performed really well

919
00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:52,120
Speaker 4: when they have extra time to prepare for these teams.

920
00:44:52,160 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 4: And you know, we all know the stats right this

921
00:44:55,200 --> 00:45:00,040
Speaker 4: forn ire thing without uh they you know, Debo and

922
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 4: without Ayuk and without Christian McCaffrey, Like we just we

923
00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 4: talked about it, right, they're gonna struggle in the red zone.

924
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:06,560
Speaker 4: That to me will be the difference in this game.

925
00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:08,600
Speaker 4: That's why this spread feels too big. That's why I

926
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:11,200
Speaker 4: think the Cowboys will keep it close. Because you say,

927
00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:14,160
Speaker 4: what you want about Dak he gets them down there.

928
00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:15,920
Speaker 4: He's for the most parts that I'll finish a lot

929
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:18,440
Speaker 4: of these drives and a lot of their losses kind

930
00:45:18,480 --> 00:45:20,480
Speaker 4: of come because of their defense. Right now, that'll get

931
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:23,319
Speaker 4: stops here, I think about it, get stops like as

932
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:26,480
Speaker 4: banged up as there defensively, you can't tell me the

933
00:45:26,520 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 4: forty nine ers are gonna be okay offensively, Like the

934
00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:31,279
Speaker 4: injuries have to catch up to them, and we've seen

935
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:33,319
Speaker 4: they have. Right They're three and fourth this point. So

936
00:45:34,480 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 4: it just feels like another spot that I'm gonna take

937
00:45:37,600 --> 00:45:39,360
Speaker 4: the dog. I'm gonna take the dog to win outright, Like,

938
00:45:39,400 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 4: I just love this spot for this Dallas team. So

939
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:44,359
Speaker 4: once again a number that I'm hoping we get four

940
00:45:44,360 --> 00:45:46,440
Speaker 4: and a half in contest. If it is three and

941
00:45:46,440 --> 00:45:48,200
Speaker 4: a half, I don't mind it. That's why I think

942
00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:50,600
Speaker 4: the number should be. I still think there's value there.

943
00:45:50,680 --> 00:45:56,400
Speaker 4: So this is a classic case of man, this this

944
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:58,400
Speaker 4: this team makes you scary to bet on this Cowboys

945
00:45:58,400 --> 00:45:59,759
Speaker 4: team because they've been so bad this year.

946
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:01,360
Speaker 2: But we just have to trust the number and trust

947
00:46:01,360 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 2: the spot, right Chad.

948
00:46:02,680 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 1: I do I trust this number. I trust the quarterback.

949
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:09,000
Speaker 1: I am worried about the Niners and their injuries. It's

950
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:13,719
Speaker 1: it's you know. Raybon had a great stat on the

951
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 1: show that he did this morning. Per Raybon, a third

952
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:25,319
Speaker 1: of party's targets yards and touchdowns, where with Christian McCaffrey

953
00:46:25,560 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 1: and Brandon Ayuk. If you don't have debo, that number

954
00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:33,879
Speaker 1: goes up to fifty percent. So at some point, you're right,

955
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:36,160
Speaker 1: it just catches up with you if you've got none

956
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:40,919
Speaker 1: of your weapons. And Kittle is banged up. So we'll

957
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:42,920
Speaker 1: be on the Cowboys. Cowboys will be in the contest.

958
00:46:43,120 --> 00:46:47,719
Speaker 1: I think we got a really interesting list going here

959
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 1: between the Cowboys have.

960
00:46:49,560 --> 00:46:51,040
Speaker 2: A couple of favorites we like because that's been our

961
00:46:51,040 --> 00:46:52,400
Speaker 2: Achilles Hill this season. To me.

962
00:46:54,760 --> 00:46:58,400
Speaker 1: We like the Bears, we like the Lions, we Slash,

963
00:46:58,520 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 1: I like Cincy, but we also like Dallas. We also

964
00:47:01,640 --> 00:47:07,279
Speaker 1: like Indy. We also like Jacksonville. We like Cleveland. We

965
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:09,799
Speaker 1: like the Raiders. It's gonna be It's gonna be fun.

966
00:47:10,120 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 1: It's gonna be fun.

967
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:16,040
Speaker 4: Burning bright beneath the North Texas sky, in the heart

968
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:19,880
Speaker 4: of the lone Star State is a galaxy of extraordinary

969
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 4: football players.

970
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:24,800
Speaker 2: They are the Dallas Cowboys.

971
00:47:26,080 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 1: Each week we give out a two team money line

972
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:32,600
Speaker 1: underdog parlay Bet three six five boost the odds and

973
00:47:32,680 --> 00:47:37,160
Speaker 1: highlights it on their site all weekend under both game pages.

974
00:47:37,239 --> 00:47:39,560
Speaker 1: Remember both games are eligible for the Bet three sixty

975
00:47:39,600 --> 00:47:43,840
Speaker 1: five early payout promo, where your money line pick gets

976
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:47,680
Speaker 1: marked as a win if that team takes a seventeen

977
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:50,560
Speaker 1: point lead, even if they lose. So if you want

978
00:47:50,600 --> 00:47:53,359
Speaker 1: to bet this, bet it at bet three sixty five.

979
00:47:53,640 --> 00:47:56,960
Speaker 1: The boost did parlay, no surprise. If you've been listening

980
00:47:57,640 --> 00:48:02,879
Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys Indianapolis Colts, go to those game pages at

981
00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:05,759
Speaker 1: bet three six five to find the boosted parlay. Go

982
00:48:05,800 --> 00:48:08,880
Speaker 1: to the Colts, Go to the Cowboys. You'll find the boost,

983
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:13,800
Speaker 1: all right, simon our money line underdog round Robin.

984
00:48:15,960 --> 00:48:18,880
Speaker 4: There will come up heay nay Halla, lou yo wanna

985
00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:19,720
Speaker 4: pay day.

986
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:21,080
Speaker 2: There will come up.

987
00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 3: Pay day some day.

988
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 2: Some day there will come up heayday.

989
00:48:25,600 --> 00:48:27,520
Speaker 4: Halla lou yo wanna payday.

990
00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:30,120
Speaker 2: I will come up pay day some day.

991
00:48:32,239 --> 00:48:36,320
Speaker 1: I I have some ideas you ready, yes, sir, well,

992
00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:38,440
Speaker 1: I'm not putting the Panthers on there, I'll tell you

993
00:48:38,560 --> 00:48:42,439
Speaker 1: right now. But I did put the Patriots. I put

994
00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:43,120
Speaker 1: the Browns.

995
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:45,719
Speaker 2: I like the Browns. I don't like the Patriots, all right.

996
00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 1: I put the Colts, I put the Cowboys.

997
00:48:49,880 --> 00:48:52,560
Speaker 2: Love it, Jaguars.

998
00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:54,640
Speaker 1: Interesting okay, Jags.

999
00:48:55,719 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 4: Uh, Raiders, Raiders okay? No, I was gonna say for

1000
00:49:02,640 --> 00:49:04,200
Speaker 4: the last one, should we go with the Bucks?

1001
00:49:04,840 --> 00:49:04,880
Speaker 2: No?

1002
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:05,720
Speaker 1: I had Raiders?

1003
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:07,120
Speaker 2: Actually you did?

1004
00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:07,719
Speaker 3: Yeah?

1005
00:49:09,280 --> 00:49:11,920
Speaker 2: I love if that in the Browns hit, that alone

1006
00:49:11,920 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 2: would cover the round robin.

1007
00:49:13,280 --> 00:49:16,239
Speaker 1: So I do love the payout, all right, So let's

1008
00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:26,200
Speaker 1: do the Raiders. Raiders, Browns, Colts, Cowboys, Jags are our

1009
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:32,000
Speaker 1: moneyline underdog round Robin. Before we get to Simon's biggest bets,

1010
00:49:32,520 --> 00:49:36,360
Speaker 1: get excited, We're releasing a very short bonus episode of

1011
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:41,560
Speaker 1: the podcast. Saturday morning. We sat down with comedian producer

1012
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:49,279
Speaker 1: writer Gambler, popular New York sports fan Kid Marrow. It

1013
00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:51,560
Speaker 1: was a riot, Simon, and I didn't want it to end.

1014
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:54,720
Speaker 1: It's true. Be sure to check it out. We promise

1015
00:49:54,960 --> 00:49:57,719
Speaker 1: you'll like it. Simon. Give me your biggest bets.

1016
00:49:58,080 --> 00:50:02,440
Speaker 4: Sure, Cowboys as people, Oh love them, Bears people know

1017
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:06,040
Speaker 4: love it. I was the Colts, but now this numbers

1018
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:08,520
Speaker 4: move so and much people I wouldn't chase. I wouldn't

1019
00:50:08,600 --> 00:50:10,759
Speaker 4: chase this as much as I was, this was gonna

1020
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:12,719
Speaker 4: be one of my bigger ones. Now that it's down

1021
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 4: blow six, I still like it, It's just not gonna

1022
00:50:14,640 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 4: be one of my biggest bets. Still love Jaguars A

1023
00:50:17,200 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 4: plus four if that number stays there going into Sunday,

1024
00:50:20,200 --> 00:50:22,840
Speaker 4: no doubt about it. And then the final one, of course,

1025
00:50:22,920 --> 00:50:24,520
Speaker 4: the Los Angeles Rams.

1026
00:50:25,680 --> 00:50:27,239
Speaker 1: Wow. All right, so a lot of people be listening

1027
00:50:27,239 --> 00:50:30,240
Speaker 1: to this after the Thursday night game. But that's big

1028
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:34,839
Speaker 1: scooch Roulette. You're five and two, you have a commanding

1029
00:50:35,080 --> 00:50:37,880
Speaker 1: three game lead. Who's your scooch Roulette?

1030
00:50:38,920 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 3: When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.

1031
00:50:43,680 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 3: Let's play scooch Roulette.

1032
00:50:48,840 --> 00:50:50,560
Speaker 4: Man, I have so many games I love, you know what,

1033
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 4: I'm trying to just get it over with. Get the

1034
00:50:52,600 --> 00:50:55,600
Speaker 4: six and two tonight. Gave me the Rams plus three.

1035
00:50:55,719 --> 00:50:58,400
Speaker 1: Give me the Cincinnati Bengals, You fool.

1036
00:50:59,520 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 2: That's your scooter left pic check. Come on.

1037
00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:06,760
Speaker 4: Oh and before we move on to my guy Evan people,

1038
00:51:06,840 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 4: Sunday morning, me and Chad do a show on YouTube

1039
00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:13,120
Speaker 4: or in the action app called Convince Me. Just like

1040
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:16,800
Speaker 4: this show. It's free this season. I think last week

1041
00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:19,800
Speaker 4: I went I went three and oh on my bonus

1042
00:51:19,800 --> 00:51:21,960
Speaker 4: bedit so I was four and oh I'm fourteen and

1043
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 4: seven on the season, so sixty seven percent for the season.

1044
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:27,959
Speaker 4: On my picks, all free Gushulis is sixty seven percent

1045
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:28,319
Speaker 4: for the season.

1046
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:30,520
Speaker 2: Chris Raybaugh, So you have two guys.

1047
00:51:30,200 --> 00:51:32,760
Speaker 4: On the same show, or give it out free winners

1048
00:51:33,160 --> 00:51:37,720
Speaker 4: every Sunday, wake up, latch our fucking show and make money.

1049
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:40,520
Speaker 4: I cannot believe our numbers aren't even bigger than this show.

1050
00:51:40,560 --> 00:51:43,040
Speaker 4: It's just free money in Sunday morning.

1051
00:51:43,040 --> 00:51:44,200
Speaker 2: What are you people doing? So?

1052
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:48,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, we've been really hot. It's been really fun. Check

1053
00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 4: us out Sunday morning.

1054
00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:51,920
Speaker 1: Convince me all the all the stuff, none of the fluff.

1055
00:51:51,960 --> 00:51:55,080
Speaker 1: The only pregame show. It focuses on the true stuff.

1056
00:51:55,320 --> 00:51:57,440
Speaker 1: All right, It's time to bring in our director of research,

1057
00:51:57,640 --> 00:52:02,160
Speaker 1: Evan Abrams. Make us feel good. By the last word

1058
00:52:02,520 --> 00:52:05,840
Speaker 1: with Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.

1059
00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I wanted to take over for you multiple times

1060
00:52:08,640 --> 00:52:10,839
Speaker 3: during this show chat. I feel bad, but we're gonna

1061
00:52:10,840 --> 00:52:11,360
Speaker 3: get there for you.

1062
00:52:11,560 --> 00:52:13,960
Speaker 1: Let me tast on. It doesn't hurt at all.

1063
00:52:14,120 --> 00:52:15,759
Speaker 2: That's good enough, just hurts the list.

1064
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:18,279
Speaker 3: It makes us feel better at least. All right, So

1065
00:52:18,400 --> 00:52:20,600
Speaker 3: our bet Labs database here at the Action Network goes

1066
00:52:20,640 --> 00:52:22,840
Speaker 3: back to two thousand and three in the NFL. So

1067
00:52:22,920 --> 00:52:24,640
Speaker 3: my trivia question at the moment is who is the

1068
00:52:24,640 --> 00:52:28,600
Speaker 3: most profitable coach against the spread on extended rest? Good

1069
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:31,720
Speaker 3: for you, guys, it is Mike McCarthy twenty five, eighteen

1070
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:34,640
Speaker 3: and three with the Packers, even better with Dallas thirteen

1071
00:52:34,680 --> 00:52:37,319
Speaker 3: and five against the spread with Dallas when he's an

1072
00:52:37,360 --> 00:52:41,360
Speaker 3: underdog on extended rest fourteen six and one. So I

1073
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:43,720
Speaker 3: can understand why you guys are interested in that Dallas

1074
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:47,360
Speaker 3: San Francisco spot. Talking about your Bears for a second,

1075
00:52:47,400 --> 00:52:48,960
Speaker 3: this is just going to be playing and simple, and

1076
00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:51,480
Speaker 3: I think I've actually used this one on this show before,

1077
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:54,759
Speaker 3: but teams off of bye versus a team not just

1078
00:52:54,880 --> 00:52:57,080
Speaker 3: playing and simple, And this number is pretty short still

1079
00:52:57,400 --> 00:53:00,400
Speaker 3: is fifty six point one percent straight up since that

1080
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:02,600
Speaker 3: two thousand and three number. That's over six hundred game

1081
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:05,200
Speaker 3: sample size if they if the team off the Bay

1082
00:53:05,360 --> 00:53:08,680
Speaker 3: is above five hundred thirty five and fifteen straight up

1083
00:53:08,760 --> 00:53:12,360
Speaker 3: seventy percent since twenty twenty, So pretty decent spot for

1084
00:53:12,400 --> 00:53:15,799
Speaker 3: those Bears. Now you had mentioned the Colts, and I

1085
00:53:15,840 --> 00:53:18,320
Speaker 3: know that number has gotten a little out of whack

1086
00:53:18,360 --> 00:53:20,040
Speaker 3: in terms of the number we would bet it at

1087
00:53:20,160 --> 00:53:22,640
Speaker 3: But it's worth noting Nico Collins and his importance to

1088
00:53:22,680 --> 00:53:25,959
Speaker 3: this Houston offense. So Texans are five and twelve straight

1089
00:53:26,040 --> 00:53:28,359
Speaker 3: up in games he either doesn't play or has one

1090
00:53:28,400 --> 00:53:31,160
Speaker 3: target or fewer. And then you look inside the numbers.

1091
00:53:31,160 --> 00:53:33,800
Speaker 3: In weeks one through five, Nico led the NFL in

1092
00:53:33,880 --> 00:53:36,960
Speaker 3: receiving yards by over one hundred and his first read

1093
00:53:37,280 --> 00:53:40,439
Speaker 3: designed target mark of thirty six was tied for six

1094
00:53:40,520 --> 00:53:41,920
Speaker 3: most at that point.

1095
00:53:41,680 --> 00:53:42,320
Speaker 1: In the NFL.

1096
00:53:42,560 --> 00:53:45,120
Speaker 3: So Stroud was looking to him almost all the time.

1097
00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:48,520
Speaker 3: Now talk about Stroud for a half second here. Weeks

1098
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:51,680
Speaker 3: one through five, he was fourteenth in EPA per play

1099
00:53:51,920 --> 00:53:56,839
Speaker 3: and fifteenth in completion percentage overexpected. Last two weeks that's

1100
00:53:56,880 --> 00:53:59,640
Speaker 3: down to twenty sixth in EPA per play and twenty

1101
00:53:59,680 --> 00:54:03,560
Speaker 3: fourth CPOE. So just a different quarterback without his target

1102
00:54:03,600 --> 00:54:08,000
Speaker 3: there Now, finally I will go to the Cleveland Browns.

1103
00:54:08,000 --> 00:54:11,320
Speaker 3: Truly a bad low cell high spot here at Deshaun

1104
00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:15,160
Speaker 3: Watson's injury, kind of hard to overstate how bad he was.

1105
00:54:15,280 --> 00:54:18,520
Speaker 3: So his passing success rate was thirty three point three

1106
00:54:18,600 --> 00:54:21,920
Speaker 3: percent through seven games. That was the sixteenth worst mark

1107
00:54:22,160 --> 00:54:25,080
Speaker 3: of any QB in the last thirty years. Of those

1108
00:54:25,120 --> 00:54:29,040
Speaker 3: sixteen quarterbacks, his eight point four yards gain per completion

1109
00:54:29,640 --> 00:54:32,880
Speaker 3: was tied for the worst with Bobby Woyinge of the

1110
00:54:32,880 --> 00:54:35,720
Speaker 3: Eagles in nineteen ninety eight. That was just the level

1111
00:54:36,040 --> 00:54:39,200
Speaker 3: of quarterback play Cleveland was going through. And also to

1112
00:54:39,239 --> 00:54:42,240
Speaker 3: no surprise, Cleveland became the fourth team since two thousand

1113
00:54:42,440 --> 00:54:44,920
Speaker 3: to start their first seven games with out scoring twenty

1114
00:54:44,960 --> 00:54:49,239
Speaker 3: points Chad College Football and NFL. Cleveland is still the

1115
00:54:49,239 --> 00:54:51,080
Speaker 3: only team not to score twenty points in a game

1116
00:54:51,120 --> 00:54:53,880
Speaker 3: this year. So it just the offense was unreal.

1117
00:54:53,920 --> 00:54:56,680
Speaker 1: And then you have a mind boggling, mind.

1118
00:54:56,480 --> 00:54:58,799
Speaker 3: Boggling Ucla was on that list before they did it,

1119
00:54:58,840 --> 00:55:02,160
Speaker 3: like a week or so ago. Here comes Jamis Winston.

1120
00:55:02,719 --> 00:55:04,680
Speaker 3: You went into the medical ten at one point, came

1121
00:55:04,719 --> 00:55:05,120
Speaker 3: back out.

1122
00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:06,000
Speaker 4: Where was the pain?

1123
00:55:06,120 --> 00:55:08,799
Speaker 2: Jamis? Yeah, just paying It was paining everywhere. So we

1124
00:55:08,840 --> 00:55:11,480
Speaker 2: gotta keep all pushing through and being Rezoli And all.

1125
00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:13,560
Speaker 3: You know about Jamis is gonna chuck it downfield. Since

1126
00:55:13,560 --> 00:55:16,480
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, his a Dot average depth of target

1127
00:55:16,800 --> 00:55:20,840
Speaker 3: is eleven point six, second of seventy eight qualifying quarterbacks.

1128
00:55:21,120 --> 00:55:23,680
Speaker 3: Deshaun's was seven point eight. That's a difference of four

1129
00:55:23,800 --> 00:55:26,399
Speaker 3: yards downfield that Jamis is going to chuck the ball.

1130
00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:29,080
Speaker 3: And yes, there's one note on Baltimore before I get

1131
00:55:29,120 --> 00:55:32,240
Speaker 3: out of here. They've won four straight, scoring thirty plus

1132
00:55:32,239 --> 00:55:35,160
Speaker 3: in each teams on those streaks just forty three percent

1133
00:55:35,239 --> 00:55:38,000
Speaker 3: ats last twenty years. It's a tough spot, but it's

1134
00:55:38,000 --> 00:55:40,320
Speaker 3: the right one. So Ravens by thirty.

1135
00:55:40,360 --> 00:55:40,800
Speaker 2: I guess.

1136
00:55:40,960 --> 00:55:41,360
Speaker 3: I don't know.

1137
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:47,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, but evan that same trend, Yeah, thirty plus four

1138
00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:54,120
Speaker 1: straight wins applies to the Detroit Lions.

1139
00:55:53,960 --> 00:55:56,879
Speaker 2: One in one. It'll be fine.

1140
00:55:59,280 --> 00:56:03,800
Speaker 1: I like your hey, buddy. As a reminder, the Favorites

1141
00:56:03,880 --> 00:56:07,640
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1142
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1149
00:56:28,600 --> 00:56:34,440
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1150
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1151
00:56:38,600 --> 00:56:42,359
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1152
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1153
00:56:47,200 --> 00:56:49,400
Speaker 1: and I will return with our next episode of The

1154
00:56:49,400 --> 00:56:52,600
Speaker 1: Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Sunday night, seven

1155
00:56:52,640 --> 00:56:57,840
Speaker 1: thirty pm Eastern to recap week eight. Download us from Spotify,

1156
00:56:57,880 --> 00:57:00,680
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00:57:01,120 --> 00:57:03,759
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00:57:03,760 --> 00:57:15,200
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1159
00:57:15,239 --> 00:57:19,080
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1160
00:57:19,120 --> 00:57:22,280
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1161
00:57:22,280 --> 00:57:24,320
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