Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, single best Idea. What
Speaker 1: a remarkable day. We really spent a lot of time
Speaker 1: today respecting our founder Matthew Winkler and the strong support
Speaker 1: of our editor in chief John Micklethwaite, and not doing
Speaker 1: rumor or speculation. There were some blistering rumors and speculations
Speaker 1: this morning about the Republicans, about the Democrats, and we
Speaker 1: just we're going to do the news flow. Shout out
Speaker 1: to Michael Barr, who does a great job every day.
Speaker 1: I wish all of you could see how he seriously,
Speaker 1: how he pieces together the different news commentary and then
Speaker 1: changes it over the course of a morning. It's truly
Speaker 1: an act of God what Michael Barr does, and more
Speaker 1: so into the great unknown of this Thursday, the former
Speaker 1: president will speak tonight. Joe Matthew and Kayleen Lines will
Speaker 1: have all that coverage. David Gura of the Big Tag.
Speaker 1: We'll be speaking with the Governor of New York State
Speaker 1: of Buffalo, Kathy Hokeel. Lots to talk about there, and
Speaker 1: of course a real mystery about our president who at
Speaker 1: eighty one as COVID. That can never be good to
Speaker 1: have that really difficult illness at that age of eighty one.
Speaker 1: We tried to stay on economics, finance and investment today
Speaker 1: and did that with Jim Bianco, who has an outlier call.
Speaker 1: He says, flat out they're wrong. They don't need to cut.
Speaker 1: The new run rate of interest rates wrapped around this
Speaker 1: concept from John Williams, our start is at a higher level.
Speaker 1: Jim Bianco, don't cut in September.
Speaker 2: America is ready for it because the economy can handle it,
Speaker 2: the financial markets can handle it. It's the economic community
Speaker 2: that's not ready for it right now. If you look
Speaker 2: at the current level of interest rates and you listen
Speaker 2: to FED speak, they talk about it being highly restrictive.
Speaker 2: It might be retarding the economic growth. And again look
Speaker 2: at the stock market. Look at the rally in small
Speaker 2: cap stocks when we started pricing in September in the
Speaker 2: last week or so, and the data is just not there.
Speaker 2: But the economists still cling to this that the neutral
Speaker 2: funds rate, which is what our star is, is two
Speaker 2: and a half percent. And put this in terms, the
Speaker 2: Fed thinks they need to cut ten times to get
Speaker 2: to neutral. That's why they want to get started. They
Speaker 2: got a lot of work to do. The market is
Speaker 2: probably telling them, no, you probably need only about four
Speaker 2: or five cuts to get to neutral. There really isn't
Speaker 2: any hurry. But if you're going to give me stimulatives
Speaker 2: interest rates by lowering them, then I'm going to pile
Speaker 2: into small cap stocks. And that's what we've seen in
Speaker 2: the last week.
Speaker 1: Jim Bianco Bianco Research, Chicago, And to remind you, he
Speaker 1: was absolutely brilliant eighteen months ago, two years ago by saying, yeah,
Speaker 1: there's disinflation, but at some point we're going to pause.
Speaker 1: And boy was he right about that. Now maybe we've
Speaker 1: got a new disinflationary ten trend. Bruce Casman at JP Morgan,
Speaker 1: running all of their economics, puts out a very forceful
Speaker 1: note today to look for global disinflation in the second
Speaker 1: half of twenty twenty four and that relative and absolute
Speaker 1: dynamic of price increase between the United States and other
Speaker 1: nations and particularly em and Asia will really be quite important. Okay,
Speaker 1: so he did some politics. You get Wendy Schiller to
Speaker 1: show up. She's a pinata of a lot of people
Speaker 1: because she's very forceful about our history that maybe we
Speaker 1: don't want to hear. And she's going back to the
Speaker 1: Democratic Donnybrook, which I take back, and this is the
Speaker 1: great work of Nevins. Allan Nevins, the historian on Grover Cleveland,
Speaker 1: I call him Grover Cleveland Alexander now Grover Cleveland, who
Speaker 1: was a two term president with a gap in between,
Speaker 1: much like what mister Trump is aspiring to do, and
Speaker 1: basically the idea that credit conventions, whether planned or perhaps unplanned,
Speaker 1: can be flat out nuts.
Speaker 3: If you ever imagine a political nightmare, an open Democratic
Speaker 3: convention in twenty twenty four would be that, because it
Speaker 3: will be it will expose the fissures and fractures within
Speaker 3: the Democratic Party between the very progressive left, the progressive
Speaker 3: the middle, and you know, they won't be able to agree.
Speaker 3: They're going to want their person to challenge Trump and
Speaker 3: try and make arguments about that all the way from
Speaker 3: Bernie Sanders Lives Warren all the way down to you know,
Speaker 3: dark horses like Gina Romundo, Secretary of Commerce, you know,
Speaker 3: and Greshen Whiber might be dragged back into it. Joshua
Speaker 3: Bruro of Pennsylvania. It will look like the Democrats can't
Speaker 3: decide and don't know what they're doing, and will only
Speaker 3: feed into whatever nostalgia Trump voters have for Trump, but
Speaker 3: also independent voters who want a stable system. And this
Speaker 3: is the big irony of twenty twenty four. Now the
Speaker 3: Trump and Republicans appear right now to be more stable,
Speaker 3: less chaotic than Biden and the Democrats.
Speaker 1: That is the single best discussion of one potential path
Speaker 1: forward I have heard. She is a Jewel, Wendy Schiller
Speaker 1: of Brown University. We're out on YouTube again. Subscribe, you know,
Speaker 1: I looked down YouTube videos and they say subscribe and
Speaker 1: click the bell or whatever like I never understood it.
Speaker 1: Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts out on YouTube. It's the heart
Speaker 1: and soul of our future project. Here an Apple Android.
Speaker 1: They're out with some new software. Excuse me, Apple CarPlay.
Speaker 1: They're out with some new software coming up to improve
Speaker 1: Apple CarPlay. And I got a blistering note today that
Speaker 1: Android Auto is going to go through a whole new
Speaker 1: upgrade as well. It is the future from New York
Speaker 1: City on Apple Podcasts. This is single best I did