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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Day BAQRE podcast. Good morning, It's Monday,

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Speaker 2: the fifth of January. I'm Caroline Hepkat in London.

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Speaker 1: And I'm Stephen Caroline Brussels. Coming up today, President Trump

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Speaker 1: says that the US needs total access to Venezuela as

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Speaker 1: the country's acting president asks for cooperation from Washington.

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Speaker 2: Nicolas Maduro will appear in a New York court for

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Speaker 2: the first time today after his capture on Saturday.

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Speaker 1: Plus a one hundred billion dollar gamble where a US

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Speaker 1: led revival of Venezuela's oil industry could prove hard to deliver.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 1: US President Donald Trump is demanding that Washington has unfettered

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Speaker 1: access to Venezuela and it's oil. The comments, commas questions

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Speaker 1: mount over the American plan for the country following the

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Speaker 1: capture of President Nicolas Maduro on Saturday. Trump says the

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Speaker 1: US will work with Venezuela's current acting president, Dlsea Rodriguez,

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Speaker 1: but said he has not spoken to her.

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Speaker 3: Total access.

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Speaker 4: We need total access.

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Speaker 5: We need access to the oil and to other things

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Speaker 5: in their country that allow us to rebuild their country.

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Speaker 4: What other things, A lot of things.

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Speaker 5: Roads that aren't built, Bridges that are falling down. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: bridges are falling down. Nobody can go anywhere.

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Speaker 1: Trump's comments came as Venezuela as acting President, Rodriguez said

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Speaker 1: in a statement that she was inviting the US to

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Speaker 1: work with her on a cooperation agenda aimed at shared development.

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Speaker 1: But President Trump is alluded to other leaders who could

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Speaker 1: face consequences from the US if they do not change.

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Speaker 3: Columbia's very sick too, run by sick men who likes

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Speaker 3: making cocaine and selling it to the United States. And

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Speaker 3: he's not going to be doing it very long.

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Speaker 4: Let me tell you what does that mean. He's not

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Speaker 4: going to be doing it very long.

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Speaker 3: He's not doing it very long. He has cocaine mills

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Speaker 3: and cocaine factories. He's not going to be doing it.

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Speaker 4: So there will be inaugeration by the US.

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Speaker 1: How good, Jefflo dem Trump was referring there to Colombian

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Speaker 1: President Gustavo Petro, a frequent Trump critic who denounced the

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Speaker 1: weekend raid on Venezuela.

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Speaker 2: Nicholas Maduro will appear in court in New York later

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Speaker 2: today to face charges that could keep him behind bars

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Speaker 2: for the rest of his life. The indictment release on

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Speaker 2: Saturday accuses Madua and others of partnering with groups including

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Speaker 2: the Sinaloa Cartel and Trend de Aragua, which have been

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Speaker 2: designated by the US's Foreign Terrorist Organizations. The hearing is

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Speaker 2: scheduled for midday local time in New York, with the

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Speaker 2: judge expected to set an initial schedule for evidence exchanges

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Speaker 2: and pre trial motions. The trial is not expected until

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Speaker 2: at least twenty twenty seven. It is not clear whether

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Speaker 2: Maduro or his wife have hired a lawyer for the hearing.

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Speaker 1: The US plan to revive Venezuela's oil industry could take

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Speaker 1: years and cast up to one hundred billion dollars. Experts

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Speaker 1: Teleblee and Burg Companies including Chevron and Exxon Mobil would

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Speaker 1: have to invest ten billion dollars per year over the

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Speaker 1: next decade to replicate the sector's nineteen seventies success. Will

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Speaker 1: prices have been fluctuating as investors assessed the fallout from

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Speaker 1: the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on global crude

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Speaker 1: supply and the country's energy sector. Jorgeleon, head of geopolitical

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Speaker 1: analysis at Ristat Energy says investors are picking up on

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Speaker 1: the situation's instability is really.

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Speaker 6: Unknown at the moment, what is going on, who's in

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Speaker 6: control of the country, how is stable, how transition would

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Speaker 6: look like, and this is key for the oil market.

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Speaker 6: We need to understand that in order for Venezuela to

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Speaker 6: unlock its vest potential three hundred billion barrels of oil

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Speaker 6: in reserve, there is a need for a stable government

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Speaker 6: to attract international investment.

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Speaker 1: Or Heleon from Restat Energy was speaking as US Secretary

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Speaker 1: of State Marco Ubio said he expects US oil companies

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Speaker 1: will be eager for the opportunity to drill for the

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Speaker 1: country's heavy crude, which is key for refineries on the

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Speaker 1: US Gulf Coast. That was during an interview with ABC

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Speaker 1: over the weekend. Meanwhile, opek Plus is sticking with its

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Speaker 1: plan to pause supply increases in the first quarter of

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Speaker 1: this year whilst assessing the impact of Maduro's capture.

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Speaker 2: The events in Venezuela have sparked new questions about America's

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Speaker 2: stance towards Europe. Denmark's leader is warning President Trump to

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Speaker 2: stop threatening to annex Greenland after the US president again

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Speaker 2: doubled down on his comments that he wants to take

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Speaker 2: over the country. Meta Friedrichson wrote, I need to say

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Speaker 2: this very directly. The US has no right to annex

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Speaker 2: any of the three countries of the Kingdom of Denmark.

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Speaker 2: Trump was asked if he would take the same approach

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Speaker 2: to Greenland as Venezuela.

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Speaker 4: Here's his answer.

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Speaker 5: Right now, Greenland is covered with Russian and Chinese ships

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Speaker 5: all over the place. We leed Greenland from the same

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Speaker 5: point of national security, and Denmark is not going to

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Speaker 5: be able to.

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Speaker 3: Do it, I can tell you.

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Speaker 2: The US President added that he didn't want to talk

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Speaker 2: about the issue now, but would revisit it in two

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Speaker 2: months time. Greenland's elected leader, Jens Frederick Nielsen, posted on

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Speaker 2: Facebook saying there is no reason for panic as Greenland's

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Speaker 2: position is firmly anchored in international law.

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Speaker 1: American officials have determined that Ukraine did not target a

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Speaker 1: residence belonging to Vladimir Putin, according to President Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: The US president told reporters that something happened nearby the

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Speaker 1: Russian leader's residents, but that American officials did not find

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Speaker 1: the property itself was targeted. Last week, the Kremlin said

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Speaker 1: Russia would toughen its negotiating stance follow the following the

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Speaker 1: alleged attack, which the US President appeared to accept at

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Speaker 1: the time as having happened. Ukraine's President, Vladimir Zelenski has

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Speaker 1: consistently dismissed the claim as a fabrication, saying it was

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Speaker 1: Russia's reaction to positive develops in peace talks.

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Speaker 2: Now in the UK, Prime Minister Kis Starmer is warning

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Speaker 2: his own party that removing him would plunge Britain into chaos.

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Speaker 2: Starmer told the BBC's Sunday with Laura Kunsberg program that

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Speaker 2: our sting him would not help the Labor Party or

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Speaker 2: the country.

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Speaker 7: Under the last government, we saw constant chopping and changing

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Speaker 7: up leadership of teams. It caused utter chaos, utter chaos,

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Speaker 7: and it's amongst the reasons that the Touris were booted

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Speaker 7: out so effectively at the last election. Nobody, but nobody

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Speaker 7: wants to go back to that. It's not in our

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Speaker 7: national interest.

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Speaker 2: The UK leader, though, is seen as increasingly fragile. Poll

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Speaker 2: rating suggests that Kirs Starmer is the most unpopular prime

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Speaker 2: minister in modern UK history, and many in his own

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Speaker 2: party see coming local elections in May as a looming crisis.

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Speaker 1: Asia, France, and India have criticized Elon Musk's AI chatbot Grog,

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Speaker 1: for creating sexualized images, including of minors, on the social

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Speaker 1: media platform X. Authorities in Malaya said in a statement

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Speaker 1: on Saturday that they're investigating images produced by Grog following complaints,

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Speaker 1: while France accused Agroc of generating clearly illegal sexual content.

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Speaker 4: We're going to stand that.

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Speaker 1: India has also written to X ordering a comprehensive review

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Speaker 1: of the technology. Musk said in a post on Sunday

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Speaker 1: that the platform takes action against illegal content by removing

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Speaker 1: it permanently, suspending accounts, and working with officials as necessary.

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Speaker 2: And those are our top stories for you today. In

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Speaker 2: terms of the markets, the MSCI ASH Pacific Index is

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Speaker 2: up by one and a half percent, a new all

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Speaker 2: time high reached today, extending last year's AI linked rally.

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Speaker 2: Silver has surged, Gold has jumped to gold currently up

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Speaker 2: by one point nine percent four four hundred and fourteen dollars.

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Speaker 2: Oil prices have been swinging after events in Venezuela. Brent

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Speaker 2: fell as much as one point two percent is currently

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Speaker 2: down by half of one percent. Training at sixty dollars

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Speaker 2: forty five the bow. And if we look at the dollar,

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Speaker 2: you've seen also a jump in the dollar up three

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Speaker 2: tenths on the bloom Mgdollar Spot Index, with ten year

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Speaker 2: US Treasury yields currently trading at four eighteen down a

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Speaker 2: basis point. That's a look at the markets this hour, in.

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Speaker 1: A moment, What next for Venezuela after the weekends dramatic events,

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Speaker 1: plus what the ousting of Maduro means for global oil markets.

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Speaker 1: We have full coverage across Bloomberg of this story the

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Speaker 1: capture of Nicholas Maduro in one particular article I've been

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Speaker 1: reading this morning, which details how the raid was prepared

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Speaker 1: and carried out. And the sources have told us that

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Speaker 1: a small team from the CIA had been in Venezuela

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Speaker 1: since August, feeding information on Maduro's pattern of life. They

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Speaker 1: were looking like things not only where he was, but

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Speaker 1: in the run up to this raid, what he was eating,

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Speaker 1: what he was wearing, and all in preparation for this,

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Speaker 1: this break in the weather, as it turned out to be,

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Speaker 1: which provided the window for this raid to be able

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Speaker 1: to take place.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it happened in the early hours of Saturday morning,

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Speaker 2: and then of course, we were all glued on Saturday afternoon,

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Speaker 2: you know, to when President Trump started to discuss this,

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Speaker 2: there was you know, a lot of praise for those

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Speaker 2: forces for the fact that it didn't cause any US casualties. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: now the aftermath of all of this could be much

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Speaker 2: more complicated. But apparently there were more than one hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty US aircraft that swept into Venezuela after the

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Speaker 2: US neutralized Venezuela's own air defenses, the Army Delta Force

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Speaker 2: unit delivering to the military base where Madua was spending

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Speaker 2: the night. So that's where the actual event sort of

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Speaker 2: took place, breaking through steel doors, grabbing him and his wife.

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Speaker 2: And then of course we saw the actual images of

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Speaker 2: a Nicolas Maduro blind FOI folded with the headphones on

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Speaker 2: as he was brought back to the US.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, all that, of course ahead of his court hearing

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Speaker 1: later today. We'll put a link to this piece in

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Speaker 1: our podcast show notes so that you can see more

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Speaker 1: on the background of what we learned to that weekend raid.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's get more on what happened then in Venezuela

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Speaker 2: and what may come next. Our Chief Asia correspondent ross

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Speaker 2: In Matheson joins us. Now, good to speak to you, Roz.

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Speaker 2: We've heard from Venezuela's acting president, Delci Rodriguez, asking the

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Speaker 2: US to cooperate. This is a big change in tone

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Speaker 2: from her. How should we read her comments and are

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Speaker 2: they being well received in Washington.

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Speaker 8: Well, it's really a sign that she's dancing between two

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Speaker 8: things here. I mean, she's been an ardent loyalist Timoduro.

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Speaker 8: She's got the hardliners wears. So she's trying to mess

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Speaker 8: you know, manage the message at home where the message

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Speaker 8: has been.

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Speaker 4: Outrage and so on.

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Speaker 8: At the same time, she's now saying she's inviting the

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Speaker 8: US to work on a cooperation agenda aimed at shared development,

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Speaker 8: whatever that means. It kind of reflects the tricky spot

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Speaker 8: she's in because the US President, Donald Trump has said,

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Speaker 8: if she doesn't do what's right, this is his quote,

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Speaker 8: she's going to pay a very big price, potentially bigger

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Speaker 8: than Maduro, so very much, you know, leaning on her

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Speaker 8: to adhere to the US policy goals here. So she's

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Speaker 8: got to manage what is a really chaotic situation at

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Speaker 8: the moment.

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Speaker 4: Inside Venezuela.

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Speaker 8: There's a lot we don't know, me Maduro's status is

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Speaker 8: being treated as a temporary forced absence. A new group

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Speaker 8: of lawmakers are due to be sworn in today. How

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Speaker 8: strong is her hold on power? What is her support network?

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Speaker 8: So she has to manage that all also under a

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Speaker 8: lot of pressure, obviously from the US to agree to

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Speaker 8: some of their policy goals, And this laterst statement probably

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Speaker 8: reflects the fact that she's walking a line between her

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Speaker 8: domestic messaging and what she probably realizes she needs to do,

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Speaker 8: including with the US.

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Speaker 1: How clear is Donald Trump's vision for watch it happened

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Speaker 1: next in Venezuela. How could the US run a sovereign

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Speaker 1: country of nearly thirty million people.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, it's interesting his choice of words. He uses run

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Speaker 8: a lot, as if it's almost about running a company.

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Speaker 8: In a way, It's possibly a bit how he sees

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Speaker 8: some of this, because it doesn't seem to mean installing

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Speaker 8: their own government or even pushing for elections for some

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Speaker 8: sort of you know, proper nose to tail regime change here,

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Speaker 8: but rather that whoever's in charge there is adhering to

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Speaker 8: the US priorities, which are about stopping the flow of

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Speaker 8: drugs and essentially giving the US control of Venezuela's a

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Speaker 8: very lucrative oil sector, especially in the longer term, and

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Speaker 8: less about you know, very direct US involvement, including troops

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Speaker 8: on the ground for example, that don't seem to want

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Speaker 8: to get involved in that. But the question is can

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Speaker 8: they avoid it over time? You know, things that have

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Speaker 8: been very fragile in Venezuela for a time, including the economy.

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Speaker 8: It's very unclear exactly how the power structures are there

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Speaker 8: at the moment. If things really descend into chaos, you know,

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Speaker 8: does the US get pulled further in by run They

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Speaker 8: simply seem to mean that they want to make sure

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Speaker 8: that their interests are properly represented and what they want

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Speaker 8: from Venezuela they now actually get.

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Speaker 2: Well, could there also be further aggressive US intervention elsewhere

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Speaker 2: in the world? That is the question that many are asking.

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Speaker 2: Is Greenland next? President Trump's also threatened Colombia, Mexico. There's

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Speaker 2: been talk about Canada as the fifty first state.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, this really seems to be about Donald Trump looking

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Speaker 8: at the US and it's what he would think of

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Speaker 8: as its periphery. So you mentioned Canada obviously, also Mexico, Colombia,

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Speaker 8: America's Panama to and Greenland, which he's had his eye

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Speaker 8: on for a while in terms of being a security priority,

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Speaker 8: he says for the US given its proximity to the Arctic,

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Speaker 8: and also, of course Greenland has a lot of natural

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Speaker 8: resources that Donald Trump would like to have access to,

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Speaker 8: really talking about securing the US periphery and having control

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Speaker 8: of that area. And the question is what can he

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Speaker 8: actually do outside of Venezuela. I mean, you're looking at

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Speaker 8: places like Canada. These are very big, significant democracies. These

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Speaker 8: are not countries run by autocrats one party state, you know,

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Speaker 8: where the leader repressed their people and their economy. You know,

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Speaker 8: Maduro was not a popular figure in many parts of

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Speaker 8: the world, including inside Venezuela. That's not the case in

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Speaker 8: these other places. These are democratically elected governments. So what

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Speaker 8: can the US do in terms of intervention or is

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Speaker 8: it over time using what he's done, which is economic tools,

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Speaker 8: the threats of sanctions, economic penalties to squeeze countries to

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Speaker 8: give him what he wants from a security perspective or

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Speaker 8: access to their resources or business and investment. So it

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Speaker 8: might be more about that, including when it comes to Greenland,

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Speaker 8: than avert intervention. But you know, this has shocked everybody

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Speaker 8: what he's done to some extent, and shown that he

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Speaker 8: is willing to take extra steps where he sees that

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Speaker 8: it's needed.

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Speaker 1: What about the question of pro consequences further afield here,

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Speaker 1: or as like the potential for China acting against Taiwan.

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Speaker 1: Is this another rewriting of the international order?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 8: The China response is interesting because on the surface of it,

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Speaker 8: they protested what's happened, and they will be a bit

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Speaker 8: worried potentially about their business interests in Latin America, which

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Speaker 8: are significant in a number of countries, including Venezuela when

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Speaker 8: it comes to oil. But perhaps also you know, looking

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Speaker 8: at this and saying, well, hang on, what does this

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Speaker 8: mean for us? Does this mean that the US wouldn't

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Speaker 8: necessarily rush to Taiwan's aid, for example, in the event

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Speaker 8: of Chinese action.

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Speaker 4: There is this a bit of a template.

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Speaker 8: I mean, not to say that China is about to

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Speaker 8: do something when it comes to Taiwan, but perhaps they

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Speaker 8: can say we're less worried about the US doing something

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Speaker 8: in response going forward, And that is to your point

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Speaker 8: about it. You know, a new world order of new

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Speaker 8: spheres of influence in a way where these big powers,

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Speaker 8: including China and Asia, the US and the Americas, possibly

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Speaker 8: someone in the Middle East, you know, Vladimir Putin in

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Speaker 8: parts of Europe where they say, you know, stay out

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Speaker 8: of our business. We won't interrupt your own business affairs

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Speaker 8: in our backyards, but stay out of our affairs here,

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Speaker 8: and we'll have our own spheres of influence around the world.

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Speaker 8: And perhaps that is the way that China will interpret

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Speaker 8: some of this.

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Speaker 2: Okay, ros thank you for being with us. SU Chief

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Speaker 2: Asia correspondent Roslyn Matheson, stay with us. More from Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: Daybakeuobe coming up after this.

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Speaker 1: The capture of Nicholas Maduro hasn't yet caused any major

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Speaker 1: upset for oil prices. We're seeing Brent CRUD and WTI

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Speaker 1: both down around half of one percent this morning. Steven

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Speaker 1: Stopchinsky leads our team covering energy in Asia Asia. He

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Speaker 1: joins us now for more, Stephen, why aren't we seeing

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Speaker 1: a bigger reaction on oil markets?

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Speaker 9: Well, I think you know, you just have to look

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Speaker 9: at where Venezuela stands in the global order of oil,

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Speaker 9: and right now they're supplying less than one percent of

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Speaker 9: global production, so they're not a huge player in the

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Speaker 9: Grand scheme of things.

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Speaker 4: And while China.

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Speaker 9: Is you know, they buy most of that oil that

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Speaker 9: is shipped on shadow fleet vessels. Because of sanctions, China

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Speaker 9: could most likely find an alternative, an easier somewhere else

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Speaker 9: they could go to buy oil as a replacement. Likewise,

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Speaker 9: we're in the middle of what's turning into be a

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Speaker 9: pretty nasty glut. Twenty twenty six is supposed to be

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Speaker 9: a year where the oil market really flips into an

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Speaker 9: oversupply as OPEC plus adds more supply in the market.

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Speaker 9: US shale drillers, their production has remained quite resilient, and

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Speaker 9: then other countries as well dotting the world are adding

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Speaker 9: more output. So in the situation, we're not in a

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Speaker 9: lack of oil, so removing Venezuela temporarily wouldn't have a

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Speaker 9: very big impact. And then on the flip side, looking

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Speaker 9: further out, if they add supply, that's not something that

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Speaker 9: can really be achieved quickly.

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Speaker 2: No, I mean, production in Venezuela has dropped sharply since

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Speaker 2: the nineteen seventies. You know, I read a lot about

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Speaker 2: the dilapidated state of Venezuela's oil equipment. How difficult will

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Speaker 2: it really be for the US to revive Venezuela's oil industry.

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Speaker 2: We haven't had much from the oil companies.

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Speaker 9: I mean, that's correct, right. So the situation on the

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Speaker 9: ground is that Venezuela is producing something like eight hundred

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Speaker 9: thousand barrels a day of crude. That's down from a

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Speaker 9: peak in the seventies or four million barrels a day.

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Speaker 9: Even in the early two thousands they were producing about

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Speaker 9: three million barrels a day. And so immediately after you

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Speaker 9: saw some of these attacks, and then there was Trump's

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Speaker 9: comments over the weekend that he was quite interested in

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Speaker 9: the oil and using the will to help pay for

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Speaker 9: pay down debts and use those resources and extract the

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Speaker 9: tremendous value out of those resources. There was some excitement

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Speaker 9: on Twitter and other places that you would see a

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Speaker 9: surge in Venezuelan production. But yeah, like you said, the

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Speaker 9: facilities are dilapidated, the rigs are not there, they haven't

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Speaker 9: been operating for years. And also the political situation on

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Speaker 9: the ground, as we just heard, it's unclear. So does

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Speaker 9: does Exxon or Conico want to come in to this

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Speaker 9: kind of country and.

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Speaker 4: Invest billions of dollars.

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Speaker 9: We have one report saying that for them to return

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Speaker 9: to the heyday of their oil supply. They need these

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Speaker 9: big countries to be investing ten billion dollars every year

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Speaker 9: over the next ten years. So this has been something

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Speaker 9: that can happen to media. It's going to take a loft.

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Speaker 9: It's going to take a decade to bring back this

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Speaker 9: oil production, and then you've got to get the money

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Speaker 9: from big oil, and that's not guaranteed. Trump will say

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Speaker 9: one thing, but these guys, they're looking at the situation

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Speaker 9: on the ground. They're looking all the monday they have

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Speaker 9: to invest, and they say, why pick Venezuela when you.

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Speaker 4: Got great spots.

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Speaker 9: There's still some shale developments that you could produce from

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Speaker 9: other places around the world that are more attractive. So

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Speaker 9: it's really to be seen whether or not you're going

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Speaker 9: to see a big reaction and big investment at least

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Speaker 9: until the political situation is under control and there's a

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Speaker 9: path forward, and whether the government that's empower right now

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Speaker 9: is going.

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Speaker 4: To work with the Trump administration.

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