WEBVTT - FTC BioPharma M&A Approach Clashes With Sector

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<v Speaker 1>In the following podcast, which was recorded on August thirtieth,

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<v Speaker 1>part of our discussion relates to the legal theory on

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<v Speaker 1>which the Federal Trade Commission based its lawsuit to block

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<v Speaker 1>the merger of Amjen and Horizon. After the episode was recorded,

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<v Speaker 1>the FTC settled with Amgen and cleared the deal to

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<v Speaker 1>close with conditions. But in addition to discussing that matter,

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<v Speaker 1>our podcast touches on many other topics relevant to the

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<v Speaker 1>pharma and biotech industries. So we've gone forward with its

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<v Speaker 1>release and help you enjoy listening. Well.

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<v Speaker 2>Hello and welcome to the Votes and Verdicts podcast hosted

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<v Speaker 2>by Bloomberg Intelligence, the investment research platform of Bloomberg LP.

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<v Speaker 2>In this podcast series, we talk about the intersection of

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<v Speaker 2>business policy and law. My name is Jennifer Ree. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>a senior analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence covering US antitrust litigation

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<v Speaker 2>and policy. Now, our litigation and policy teams really cover

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<v Speaker 2>a very wide variety of topics. I'm the only one

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<v Speaker 2>covering anti trust and so because of that, this is

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<v Speaker 2>the second Boats and Verdicts podcast focused on anti trust issues.

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<v Speaker 2>And in the first episode I had Bill Alsaied as

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<v Speaker 2>my guest and we discuss the more aggressive approach just

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<v Speaker 2>in general of this administration's Federal Trade Commission and the

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<v Speaker 2>Anti Trust Division of the Department of Justice, mostly with

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<v Speaker 2>respect to assessing transactions. And this episode, what we're going

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<v Speaker 2>to do is kind of follow that subject, but take

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<v Speaker 2>a deeper and narrow or dive to focus on transactions

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<v Speaker 2>and just the biotech and pharmaceutical and how the FTC's

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<v Speaker 2>approach to those deals impacts the industry. I guess I

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<v Speaker 2>can kind of call it biopharma to put those two together.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm really excited to be joined by two guests for

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<v Speaker 2>this episode. First, we have Arma Orik, who is perfectly

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<v Speaker 2>suited for this discussion and one of the smartest people

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<v Speaker 2>I know. He's currently a partner at the law from Goodwin,

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<v Speaker 2>where he's co chair of the firm's Anti trust and

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<v Speaker 2>competition practice, and he's advised numerous biotech and pharma companies

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<v Speaker 2>engaged in deals thinking about deals involved in anti trust issues.

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<v Speaker 2>Prior to joining Goodwin, Arman was part of the founding

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<v Speaker 2>team of Biosplice Therapeutics, once known as Samamed, where he

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<v Speaker 2>served as the chief legal officer and a member of

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<v Speaker 2>the board. Now second from right here with me. Within

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Intelligence, we have Mark engels Jerd. He is our

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<v Speaker 2>senior industry analyst for biotech, and prior to joining Bloomberg,

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<v Speaker 2>Mark was the oncology practice lead for in Thought Research.

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<v Speaker 2>He has a degree in cellular and molectical biology as

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<v Speaker 2>well as a doctorate in medicine from the University of California,

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<v Speaker 2>so he really knows what he's talking about in this

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<v Speaker 2>subject area. So before we jump into our anti trust topic,

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<v Speaker 2>I really would be interested for both to hear about

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<v Speaker 2>your career paths because they're both unusual. So arman, why

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<v Speaker 2>don't we start with you? I mean, as we were

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<v Speaker 2>just saying, a long time ago, seems like one hundred

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<v Speaker 2>years ago, we practiced at the same law firm, and

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<v Speaker 2>then you jump sort of the law firm ship, even

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<v Speaker 2>though you were a partner, to go help start a

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<v Speaker 2>biotech firm, which is a really unusual move and risky too.

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<v Speaker 2>So talk to us about what prompted that, what it

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<v Speaker 2>was like to be part of a biotech startup, and

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<v Speaker 2>which of your roles you've liked the most.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks for having me, Jennifer. This is a great topic

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<v Speaker 3>and I love being part of it, especially with Mark. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>so it is an unusual move, and I think it's

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<v Speaker 3>it's going to become relevant in our discussion today about

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<v Speaker 3>anti trust issues. I did leave a law firm as

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<v Speaker 3>an anti trust practitioner, something I had been doing for

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<v Speaker 3>a while at the time, to go explore an oncology startup.

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<v Speaker 3>And when you say I was a member of the

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<v Speaker 3>board and chief legal officer, it sounds so serious. In reality,

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<v Speaker 3>the task included everything from running running to Costco to

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<v Speaker 3>get supplies, all the way down to cleaning cages in

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<v Speaker 3>the in the vibe aium. But that that's the nature

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<v Speaker 3>of a startup. And really the point I'm trying to

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<v Speaker 3>make here is that there's so much uncertainty and then

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<v Speaker 3>so much unknown in life science. Is when you start

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<v Speaker 3>a project and and then there's a lot going on,

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<v Speaker 3>and things change very rapidly as data comes in, whether

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<v Speaker 3>it's a pre clinical data from a Petri dish or

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<v Speaker 3>a or some from rodent studies or whatever, and and

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<v Speaker 3>it's a it's a it's full of surprises, good and bad. Uh,

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<v Speaker 3>And and there's a lot to do. And in that

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<v Speaker 3>you asked me what my favorite roles were, whether it

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<v Speaker 3>ranged from doing actual legal work occasionally all the way

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<v Speaker 3>down to on occasion running the chemistry team or or

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<v Speaker 3>or regulatory and quality and UH and of course dealing

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<v Speaker 3>with intellectual property issues. And it was a fascinating ride.

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<v Speaker 3>And what prompted it was an interest in doing something

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<v Speaker 3>interest thing, especially on the oncology side, at a time

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<v Speaker 3>when it was possibly doable for anybody to jump into

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<v Speaker 3>the industry. The capital Marcus were very, very welcoming to

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of different projects. So it was a once

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<v Speaker 3>in a lifetime opportunity and I will never regret having

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<v Speaker 3>taken it. It's been an amazing ride.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, you had so much exposure to so many

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<v Speaker 2>parts of the business. It just makes you so well

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<v Speaker 2>suited to be dealing with this topic back in the

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<v Speaker 2>anti trust world now. I mean it's really kind of

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<v Speaker 2>an you kind of have an amazing resume and experience.

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<v Speaker 2>So if I were a biotech firm, I'd want to

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<v Speaker 2>hire you as my lawyer.

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<v Speaker 3>I would like to talk to more before I jump.

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<v Speaker 2>So, Mark, what about you? I mean, like your inequity

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<v Speaker 2>analysis after getting a doctorate in medicine, and that's also

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<v Speaker 2>kind of an unusual jump, So tell us about your career.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, so I did not always dream of being a

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<v Speaker 4>biotech equity analyst. In fact, if you had asked me,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, in high school or college what I was

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<v Speaker 4>going to do, I was going to become a surgeon.

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<v Speaker 4>And I started kind of executing on that pathway. Went

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<v Speaker 4>to medical school, matched at my top choice for a

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<v Speaker 4>general surgery residency, and then it was at that point

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<v Speaker 4>I had this sort of epiphany in my call room

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<v Speaker 4>one night where I realized, I love you know, I

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<v Speaker 4>like being in the operating room, but I don't actually

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<v Speaker 4>love it enough to do ten more years of residency

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<v Speaker 4>and fellowship training and then go down this pathway. So

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<v Speaker 4>I pivoted after my surgery internship and did a residency

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<v Speaker 4>in anatomic pathology, which is a little more of a

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<v Speaker 4>kind of behind the scenes consultative specialty. And I finished that,

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<v Speaker 4>but I, you know, I didn't really see myself doing

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<v Speaker 4>that over a multi decade career. So really, at that point,

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<v Speaker 4>you know, after four years of medical school and ultimately

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<v Speaker 4>four years of residency training, I decided to branch out.

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<v Speaker 4>And you know, perhaps at that point, which was an

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<v Speaker 4>undisclosed number of years ago, that was a little bit

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<v Speaker 4>of a atypical decision. I think it's becoming more common

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<v Speaker 4>now for people, certainly people that pursue their PhD or

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<v Speaker 4>even their medical degree to kind of leverage that background

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<v Speaker 4>in a non traditional way. But you know, I always

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<v Speaker 4>so at that point, I became very opportunistic in terms

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<v Speaker 4>of how my career unfolded. I always kept one foot,

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<v Speaker 4>so to speak, in the science kind of biomedical world.

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<v Speaker 4>But I spent some time at an early stage investing

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<v Speaker 4>group that was helping to support drug and device startups.

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<v Speaker 4>I then came to New York, spent some time on

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<v Speaker 4>Wall Street as part of some more traditional cell side

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<v Speaker 4>research shops, had a long run at in Thought, as

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<v Speaker 4>you mentioned, which is a kind of boutique healthcare consultancy,

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<v Speaker 4>and then came to Bloomberg. And you know, from my perspective,

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<v Speaker 4>it's I've never looked back, and because I'm sort of

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<v Speaker 4>charged with keeping up to date with cutting edge drug

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<v Speaker 4>development and biology and science and kind of helping to

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<v Speaker 4>translate that for the investment community and other individuals. So

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<v Speaker 4>you know, it's a lot of fun and and you know,

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<v Speaker 4>I am enjoying it.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's interesting because it's like me, it's a much

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<v Speaker 2>more of a research job, right than a hands on job,

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<v Speaker 2>and even though way beyond anything that I've ever accomplished

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<v Speaker 2>in my life, it's kind of my jump too, because

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<v Speaker 2>I was, you know, a lawyer representing clients and I

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<v Speaker 2>moved from that to doing the research side of Its

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<v Speaker 2>really really interesting because you have to stay on top

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<v Speaker 2>of all the topics. You get to read about them

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<v Speaker 2>all the time and sort of as an observer, and

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<v Speaker 2>if you're interested in that kind of thing, it can

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<v Speaker 2>be a really great job. But I'm clearly you listening

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<v Speaker 2>to the two of you, I'm clearly talking to two

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<v Speaker 2>people who are a lot smarter than.

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<v Speaker 4>I am, So I'm not sure about that.

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<v Speaker 2>As we go forward in this podcast, I'm going to

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<v Speaker 2>let you guys do most of the talking. But you know,

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<v Speaker 2>the interesting thing is that, well, I hope it's a

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<v Speaker 2>good discussion because we all really think about this in

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<v Speaker 2>a different way. I mean, right now, Armand's really grappling

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<v Speaker 2>with an aggressive and unpredictable FTC with his clients. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>he has to advise clients and he has to steer clients,

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<v Speaker 2>and you're really thinking about it in terms of how

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<v Speaker 2>does it impact the industry and how do you advise

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<v Speaker 2>the people that read your material, and I'm trying to

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<v Speaker 2>predict things. I'm trying to look at deals like Biser, Siegan,

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<v Speaker 2>Amgen in Horizon or anything else coming and trying to

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<v Speaker 2>predict what's going to happen, mostly more for the merger

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<v Speaker 2>art community, So we all come from a different approach.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's best to start this by sort of

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<v Speaker 2>laying the groundwork on the way the Federal Trade Comission,

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<v Speaker 2>and I'm sticking with the FTC because it really it's

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<v Speaker 2>the FTC that reviews pharma and biotech deals with the

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<v Speaker 2>way for many years traditionally these kinds of deals were

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<v Speaker 2>reviewed and the reason and how they got cleared. So Arman,

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<v Speaker 2>you know you've done so many deals. Walk us through

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<v Speaker 2>kind of what we think of as the traditional assessment

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<v Speaker 2>for these sorts of deals.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, the traditional assessment, like in any other industry, is

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<v Speaker 3>to look at the overlaps right between the whever the

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<v Speaker 3>buyer company is and the target company and do a

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<v Speaker 3>product by product, technology by technology analysis of how they

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<v Speaker 3>may or may not be competing with each other. Typically,

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<v Speaker 3>you start with commercial products and you go down the

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<v Speaker 3>line and really the exercises to understand whether the transaction

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<v Speaker 3>is going to result in what we anti trust lawyers

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<v Speaker 3>call one of two effects. One of them is coordinated effects,

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<v Speaker 3>meaning with less competitors out there will there be pulling

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<v Speaker 3>off punches, less competitive rigor in the industry. And the

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<v Speaker 3>other effect that the agencies typically look at is what

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<v Speaker 3>is called the unilateral effects, which is whether the target

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<v Speaker 3>and the buyer imposed on each other before the transaction

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<v Speaker 3>a unique competitive constraint, whether they see each other as

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<v Speaker 3>each other's closest competitors in any in any respect, and

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<v Speaker 3>the elimination of that typically is problematic for the agencies.

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<v Speaker 3>And so you do you do a nose count, as

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<v Speaker 3>it were, for the coordinated effects, how many players are there,

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<v Speaker 3>et cetera, et cetera. If we go from five five

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<v Speaker 3>to four players is not going to be a problem

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<v Speaker 3>probably and uh, and it needs to be sorted out

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<v Speaker 3>by the same token. Especially in life sciences, you want

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<v Speaker 3>to look at whether the two companies are each other's

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<v Speaker 3>very close competitors or a small set of competitors, and

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<v Speaker 3>elimination of that is going to be a problem. And

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<v Speaker 3>in twenty nineteen is really the landmark year to look

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<v Speaker 3>at these theories in play. That was IFDC that was

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<v Speaker 3>led by Joe Simons, who was a legendary practitioner in

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<v Speaker 3>the industry, and they looked at at the Allergan did

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<v Speaker 3>a very similar approach there as they did in the

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<v Speaker 3>BMS Celgen BMS celging transaction, both of which in both

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<v Speaker 3>of which they found overlaps that needed to be resolved.

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<v Speaker 3>And these were actual competing assets. In the case of

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<v Speaker 3>BMS and cell Gene, you had, ironically, you had an

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<v Speaker 3>oncology our house acquiring a hematology powerhouse. Yet the overlap

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<v Speaker 3>that they have DC identified happened to be in rheumatology,

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<v Speaker 3>specifically the soriusis drug Tesla. It was pretty ironic. I

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<v Speaker 3>think at the time most practitioners and and and the

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<v Speaker 3>two of us might have had a conversation back then.

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<v Speaker 3>I know I talked to a lot of people about that.

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<v Speaker 3>I was not at a law firm at the time,

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<v Speaker 3>so I was a lot more free and what I

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<v Speaker 3>could say and couldn't say. But it was a surprise

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<v Speaker 3>that they found that overlap problematic. And NBMS had a

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<v Speaker 3>pipeline asset that was very promising in soriasis in phase two,

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<v Speaker 3>and Celgene owned a premo lasso tesla, which was which

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<v Speaker 3>continues to be a relatively successful drug at least commercially

0:13:58.200 --> 0:14:03.120
<v Speaker 3>clinically I don't know, but certainly certainly commercially and UH,

0:14:03.520 --> 0:14:07.760
<v Speaker 3>and the agency was concerned that BMSS incentives UH to

0:14:07.840 --> 0:14:12.840
<v Speaker 3>continue developing Ducra was the name of the drug. I

0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:14.720
<v Speaker 3>don't know, I can't remember the full name of it,

0:14:14.760 --> 0:14:17.400
<v Speaker 3>but UH that there would be a problem there because

0:14:17.679 --> 0:14:23.080
<v Speaker 3>Ducre was the promising next generation asset that was slated

0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:27.280
<v Speaker 3>to compete against a primo last and they forced a divestiture.

0:14:28.480 --> 0:14:31.640
<v Speaker 3>Very similar dynamics in the at V al organ transaction

0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:35.280
<v Speaker 3>where they forced a the vesture of two assets where

0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:41.160
<v Speaker 3>there were overlaps between av Aalergan I believe both for

0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:46.240
<v Speaker 3>both companies those were commercial products. In the contrast is

0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:50.480
<v Speaker 3>helpful as well. Same year, same timeframe, UH, the agency

0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:56.560
<v Speaker 3>was reviewing Roach's acquisition of Spark UH. There were overlaps

0:14:56.600 --> 0:15:00.880
<v Speaker 3>in the pipeline I believe for hemophilia gene therapy for hemophilia,

0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:07.360
<v Speaker 3>and both companies had assets in clinical trials, and the

0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:09.720
<v Speaker 3>agency reviewed that for a long time I believe, up

0:15:09.760 --> 0:15:12.840
<v Speaker 3>to like a year, and finally let it go after

0:15:13.360 --> 0:15:17.480
<v Speaker 3>deciding that determining that there were enough competitors in the

0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:22.960
<v Speaker 3>pipeline to impose the kind of discipline, competitive discipline that

0:15:23.040 --> 0:15:26.520
<v Speaker 3>the agency likes to see. That's the traditional approach. So

0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:30.240
<v Speaker 3>twenty nineteen it's the useful timeframe to go back to

0:15:30.280 --> 0:15:34.680
<v Speaker 3>and look at what typically has been done. Of course,

0:15:35.720 --> 0:15:41.440
<v Speaker 3>all of those investigations came with harsh criticism from other

0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:45.040
<v Speaker 3>certain members of the Commission at the time who wanted

0:15:45.920 --> 0:15:48.480
<v Speaker 3>the staff to do more and for the Commission to

0:15:48.600 --> 0:15:54.320
<v Speaker 3>be more aggressive, and I think we're seeing those voices

0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:56.920
<v Speaker 3>prevail in the current environment. Yeah.

0:15:57.000 --> 0:15:59.760
<v Speaker 2>I mean there were two Democrats on the Commission at

0:15:59.800 --> 0:16:02.560
<v Speaker 2>that time, and they think for both of those matters

0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:09.320
<v Speaker 2>that had the divestitures, they both dissented for various different reasons,

0:16:09.360 --> 0:16:12.600
<v Speaker 2>but they were in the minority, so the deals got

0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:15.480
<v Speaker 2>through with those settlements. I have a nice little chart

0:16:15.520 --> 0:16:17.760
<v Speaker 2>and the article that you wrote that was really helpful

0:16:17.760 --> 0:16:20.560
<v Speaker 2>also Arman about a year ago that walked through the

0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:25.760
<v Speaker 2>Bristol Myers Squib deal and Happy Allergan, which I highly

0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:30.240
<v Speaker 2>recommend to anyone who hasn't read it. Right, So the

0:16:30.320 --> 0:16:33.360
<v Speaker 2>interesting thing there is that, right, and that was great

0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:37.360
<v Speaker 2>because really back when I was practicing, you know, if

0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:39.080
<v Speaker 2>you had a farm a deal that came in front

0:16:39.080 --> 0:16:41.520
<v Speaker 2>of you. It was kind of a no brainer because

0:16:41.560 --> 0:16:44.400
<v Speaker 2>you just expected, well, let's just look, let's see where

0:16:44.400 --> 0:16:46.560
<v Speaker 2>we have the overlaps and then figure out what we

0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:49.560
<v Speaker 2>have to divest, and we'll go from there and we'll

0:16:49.560 --> 0:16:52.800
<v Speaker 2>get it cleared. And so there really weren't concerns. You

0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:55.080
<v Speaker 2>knew it might take a little while, you might have

0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:59.080
<v Speaker 2>to have a consent order, but it was pretty par

0:16:59.200 --> 0:17:02.080
<v Speaker 2>for the course. You could predict what was going to happen.

0:17:02.120 --> 0:17:05.200
<v Speaker 2>You could give some certainty to the clients. So we

0:17:05.320 --> 0:17:09.639
<v Speaker 2>had this foreshadowing of what might come with those descents

0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:15.320
<v Speaker 2>in Bristol, Meyers celgene In at biel Agen too. And

0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:18.919
<v Speaker 2>what has happened now that the Democrats have taken the

0:17:18.960 --> 0:17:22.400
<v Speaker 2>majority at the FTC, so we're going to move into

0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:25.000
<v Speaker 2>kind of the new approach that's happening now is that

0:17:25.440 --> 0:17:29.360
<v Speaker 2>they started really looking closely at pharma deals. And this

0:17:29.480 --> 0:17:34.280
<v Speaker 2>started with the formation of a Multilateral Pharmaceutical Merger Task

0:17:34.320 --> 0:17:37.080
<v Speaker 2>Force that was in twenty twenty one, and then there

0:17:37.119 --> 0:17:41.320
<v Speaker 2>was the workshop in twenty twenty two, which was summarized

0:17:41.359 --> 0:17:43.920
<v Speaker 2>about a year later in June of twenty twenty three,

0:17:43.960 --> 0:17:45.840
<v Speaker 2>and there were a lot of concerns that were raised

0:17:46.359 --> 0:17:49.320
<v Speaker 2>in out that came out of that workshop, concerned that

0:17:49.359 --> 0:17:54.200
<v Speaker 2>pharmaceutical and biotech deals were killer acquisitions, deals that might

0:17:54.280 --> 0:17:58.400
<v Speaker 2>take potential competitors out of the market before they can compete, essentially,

0:17:58.960 --> 0:18:02.640
<v Speaker 2>allegations that they're might be illegal bundling and tying practices

0:18:02.640 --> 0:18:06.240
<v Speaker 2>that and also dampened innovation. And there were a lot

0:18:06.280 --> 0:18:08.320
<v Speaker 2>of suggestions where made how to deal with this, and

0:18:08.400 --> 0:18:11.080
<v Speaker 2>all of them were aimed at basically increasing anti drus

0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:14.280
<v Speaker 2>scrutiny of pharma and biotech deals. And these include things

0:18:14.320 --> 0:18:17.199
<v Speaker 2>like looking at more at innovation effects just rather than

0:18:17.240 --> 0:18:20.399
<v Speaker 2>the drug by drug overlap that Arma just described prior

0:18:20.520 --> 0:18:24.359
<v Speaker 2>bad acts, applying a heightened level of scrutiny, applying a

0:18:24.400 --> 0:18:27.280
<v Speaker 2>presumption of competitive harm to very big deals, and then

0:18:27.320 --> 0:18:29.720
<v Speaker 2>putting the burden on the companies to show that there

0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:33.960
<v Speaker 2>are efficiencies that weigh potential harm, a broader, stricter set

0:18:34.000 --> 0:18:38.600
<v Speaker 2>of remedies. That's kind of an example. And on top

0:18:38.640 --> 0:18:41.399
<v Speaker 2>of all this, the agencies are right now proposing a

0:18:41.480 --> 0:18:44.639
<v Speaker 2>new set of merger guidelines. The kind of the guidelines

0:18:44.680 --> 0:18:46.359
<v Speaker 2>talk through how they're going to look at deals and

0:18:46.359 --> 0:18:48.960
<v Speaker 2>how they're going to iness deals generally, not just pharma,

0:18:49.160 --> 0:18:52.640
<v Speaker 2>all deals, and those guidelines really look like they're intended

0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:56.280
<v Speaker 2>to increase scrutiny, increase deal challenges, and are designed to

0:18:56.280 --> 0:18:58.520
<v Speaker 2>make it easier for the FTC and DJAT to succeed

0:18:58.560 --> 0:19:01.679
<v Speaker 2>in blocking deals. And they'll apply to pharma deals as well. So,

0:19:02.320 --> 0:19:04.639
<v Speaker 2>you know, it remains to be seen what's going to happen,

0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:06.720
<v Speaker 2>what's going to come out of all these initiatives, and

0:19:07.280 --> 0:19:11.080
<v Speaker 2>whether it's really going to impose hurdles or not. But Mark,

0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:13.159
<v Speaker 2>why don't you talk for a few minutes, since we

0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:15.720
<v Speaker 2>see things are changing, we see it's going to get

0:19:15.720 --> 0:19:17.800
<v Speaker 2>more difficult. We're going to talk about amten rise and

0:19:17.880 --> 0:19:20.840
<v Speaker 2>challenge in just a minute. What is the importance of

0:19:21.000 --> 0:19:23.680
<v Speaker 2>M and A in the biotech sector and what might

0:19:23.720 --> 0:19:25.480
<v Speaker 2>it mean for these companies if it gets a lot

0:19:25.560 --> 0:19:28.240
<v Speaker 2>tougher to get even small deals over the line.

0:19:28.440 --> 0:19:31.360
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, for sure. I mean I can't stress this enough.

0:19:31.400 --> 0:19:34.600
<v Speaker 4>I mean it, and you know I focus on biotech

0:19:34.680 --> 0:19:38.159
<v Speaker 4>and pharma. I don't really have that level of detail

0:19:38.200 --> 0:19:43.520
<v Speaker 4>of other sectors or other industries. But for biopharma, m

0:19:43.560 --> 0:19:50.719
<v Speaker 4>and A is absolutely an accepted and expected component of

0:19:50.760 --> 0:19:54.000
<v Speaker 4>the way that ecosystem, if you want to think of

0:19:54.040 --> 0:20:00.080
<v Speaker 4>it that way, functions, and you know, it serves multiple purposes.

0:20:00.240 --> 0:20:06.960
<v Speaker 4>You know, for larger diversified pharma in the case of Amgen,

0:20:07.119 --> 0:20:12.040
<v Speaker 4>you know, large cap biotech companies, it's a critical way. Yes,

0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:16.960
<v Speaker 4>they have their own internal R and D capabilities and successes,

0:20:17.000 --> 0:20:20.560
<v Speaker 4>but it's a critical way of sort of layering on

0:20:20.720 --> 0:20:26.040
<v Speaker 4>additional sources of innovation and top line growth because a

0:20:26.040 --> 0:20:30.639
<v Speaker 4>lot of these companies, especially when they get to a

0:20:30.680 --> 0:20:34.600
<v Speaker 4>certain scale, you know, it's hard to kind of extract

0:20:34.640 --> 0:20:41.000
<v Speaker 4>additional revenue growth. And then of course, you know, the

0:20:41.080 --> 0:20:44.480
<v Speaker 4>reality for the entire industry, which I think is probably

0:20:45.200 --> 0:20:49.600
<v Speaker 4>somewhat different than others, has to do with you know,

0:20:49.640 --> 0:20:54.720
<v Speaker 4>the ticking patent clock and the ticking sort of market

0:20:54.920 --> 0:20:59.920
<v Speaker 4>exclusivity clock. So there's a constant you know, not only

0:21:00.160 --> 0:21:03.640
<v Speaker 4>the science continuing to evolve, but there's a constant need

0:21:03.680 --> 0:21:08.320
<v Speaker 4>to sort of refresh if your Amgen or Pfizer or

0:21:08.400 --> 0:21:16.800
<v Speaker 4>merk your commercial offerings. So buying companies which may have

0:21:17.160 --> 0:21:23.840
<v Speaker 4>marketed products, may have late stage promising, you know, products

0:21:23.840 --> 0:21:31.240
<v Speaker 4>that are perhaps nearing the market. Companies that have technology

0:21:31.520 --> 0:21:38.119
<v Speaker 4>or platform capabilities that the larger company thinks, will you know,

0:21:38.240 --> 0:21:40.600
<v Speaker 4>sort of help them to continue to expand and grow.

0:21:40.960 --> 0:21:46.600
<v Speaker 4>That is absolutely, you know, normal course of business. And

0:21:46.640 --> 0:21:48.119
<v Speaker 4>when you look at it from the other side of

0:21:48.160 --> 0:21:53.560
<v Speaker 4>the table and you start to think about investors in

0:21:54.440 --> 0:21:59.600
<v Speaker 4>private companies that maybe hope to go public or early

0:21:59.680 --> 0:22:05.919
<v Speaker 4>stagg pre revenue sort of smaller in mid cap biotechs,

0:22:06.640 --> 0:22:10.959
<v Speaker 4>it's a very accepted kind of exit strategy, you know,

0:22:11.080 --> 0:22:17.119
<v Speaker 4>for those companies and investors in those companies. So, you know,

0:22:17.160 --> 0:22:22.600
<v Speaker 4>not every company is. If you ask founders of biotech companies,

0:22:22.640 --> 0:22:24.800
<v Speaker 4>they may not always admit that, you know, one of

0:22:24.800 --> 0:22:27.200
<v Speaker 4>the things they're hoping is that, let's say Pfizer will

0:22:27.200 --> 0:22:29.960
<v Speaker 4>buy them one day. But that's certainly you know, that's

0:22:31.320 --> 0:22:34.640
<v Speaker 4>whether it's been committed to paper somewhere. That's a very

0:22:34.960 --> 0:22:38.240
<v Speaker 4>has been I guess I should say historically a very

0:22:38.280 --> 0:22:39.720
<v Speaker 4>real possibility.

0:22:40.200 --> 0:22:42.440
<v Speaker 2>You know, how have you seen that pattern, so let's

0:22:42.480 --> 0:22:44.760
<v Speaker 2>say that pattern has been playing out, and have you

0:22:44.920 --> 0:22:48.959
<v Speaker 2>viewed it as being something that's beneficial for the end

0:22:49.080 --> 0:22:52.400
<v Speaker 2>let's say from consumers that ends up being beneficial when

0:22:52.400 --> 0:22:58.080
<v Speaker 2>it comes to drug development, drug distribution, innovation. How do

0:22:58.119 --> 0:22:58.560
<v Speaker 2>you view that?

0:22:59.200 --> 0:23:04.000
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think it's a little nuanced to be fair,

0:23:04.760 --> 0:23:09.960
<v Speaker 4>you know, you can make the case that a keep

0:23:10.000 --> 0:23:13.760
<v Speaker 4>picking on Pfizer or an Engine or a Bristol. Yeah,

0:23:13.800 --> 0:23:20.960
<v Speaker 4>they're they're large. You know, they have resources just strictly

0:23:20.960 --> 0:23:25.159
<v Speaker 4>on a capital basis, they have their own internal R

0:23:25.240 --> 0:23:29.600
<v Speaker 4>and D. And then you know, very importantly, they have

0:23:29.640 --> 0:23:37.320
<v Speaker 4>capabilities when it comes to commercialization payer negotiations, which maybe

0:23:37.400 --> 0:23:39.439
<v Speaker 4>we'll get into a little bit and just kind of

0:23:39.480 --> 0:23:44.800
<v Speaker 4>the the capabilities that are needed to take what might

0:23:44.920 --> 0:23:52.240
<v Speaker 4>actually be biologically or medically effective drug and actually get

0:23:52.320 --> 0:23:55.920
<v Speaker 4>it out into the world to patients. They have those

0:23:55.920 --> 0:23:58.240
<v Speaker 4>capabilities that a smaller company.

0:23:59.520 --> 0:23:59.920
<v Speaker 1>May not have.

0:24:00.880 --> 0:24:07.200
<v Speaker 4>And so yes, it serves other needs from the perspective

0:24:07.240 --> 0:24:12.720
<v Speaker 4>of the large company and the company that's acquired. But

0:24:12.920 --> 0:24:16.560
<v Speaker 4>if I think you can make a case that in

0:24:16.600 --> 0:24:21.960
<v Speaker 4>many instances those assets that were resident at a small

0:24:22.000 --> 0:24:27.840
<v Speaker 4>biotech company maybe are able to be sort of their

0:24:27.880 --> 0:24:31.800
<v Speaker 4>potential could be maximized on a larger platform, I mean,

0:24:31.840 --> 0:24:35.000
<v Speaker 4>I think you can in a more cynical way, you

0:24:35.040 --> 0:24:37.920
<v Speaker 4>can maybe take the other side of that argument and

0:24:37.960 --> 0:24:42.760
<v Speaker 4>say a small company might be more uniquely focused on

0:24:43.080 --> 0:24:48.040
<v Speaker 4>their one product or their one platform, but of course

0:24:48.080 --> 0:24:51.960
<v Speaker 4>you have some of those other expertise and resource constraints

0:24:51.960 --> 0:24:53.000
<v Speaker 4>that they would be dealing with.

0:24:53.200 --> 0:24:55.159
<v Speaker 2>Sure our money, know, you have to have some thoughts

0:24:55.160 --> 0:24:56.480
<v Speaker 2>on this. What do you think.

0:24:58.680 --> 0:25:02.879
<v Speaker 3>Look as a small company, the especially in life sciences,

0:25:05.480 --> 0:25:11.439
<v Speaker 3>your your development strategy typically it's about getting data so

0:25:11.480 --> 0:25:15.320
<v Speaker 3>you can raise money. Right that that that's a that's

0:25:15.359 --> 0:25:17.760
<v Speaker 3>a fact of life in the industry. And uh and

0:25:17.760 --> 0:25:21.280
<v Speaker 3>and that ecosystem of get data to raise money so

0:25:21.320 --> 0:25:24.520
<v Speaker 3>you can go to the next phase or next stages

0:25:24.600 --> 0:25:28.320
<v Speaker 3>whatever it may be, whether it's moving from in vitro

0:25:28.480 --> 0:25:32.840
<v Speaker 3>to in vivo, or from from pre clinical to clinical,

0:25:33.000 --> 0:25:36.080
<v Speaker 3>or face one to face two, whatever, whatever those transition

0:25:36.160 --> 0:25:41.439
<v Speaker 3>points are. Each one comes with larger and larger budget

0:25:41.480 --> 0:25:46.280
<v Speaker 3>requirements and and as you kind of go down the path,

0:25:47.040 --> 0:25:53.760
<v Speaker 3>the capital constraints become a real issue. And it certainly

0:25:53.800 --> 0:25:57.159
<v Speaker 3>once you start talking about mark to your point about commercialization,

0:25:57.800 --> 0:26:01.040
<v Speaker 3>once you start talking about that, that's uh, that's a

0:26:01.160 --> 0:26:05.959
<v Speaker 3>completely different startup idea. Right. The second you get to

0:26:06.000 --> 0:26:09.480
<v Speaker 3>that point, you're no longer being run by the chief

0:26:09.560 --> 0:26:12.640
<v Speaker 3>medical officer of the company. Uh. So that transition from

0:26:12.640 --> 0:26:15.320
<v Speaker 3>the chief scientific officer to the chief medical officer and

0:26:15.400 --> 0:26:17.800
<v Speaker 3>at some point you need to hand it over to

0:26:19.240 --> 0:26:23.120
<v Speaker 3>the key decisions now are being made by the by

0:26:23.119 --> 0:26:25.680
<v Speaker 3>the folks who might might not have pH D after

0:26:25.800 --> 0:26:29.400
<v Speaker 3>their names or or m B after their names. That

0:26:29.400 --> 0:26:33.160
<v Speaker 3>that's a completely different business model. And uh, making that

0:26:33.160 --> 0:26:37.840
<v Speaker 3>transition is really hard. Very few companies successfully do it.

0:26:38.760 --> 0:26:42.399
<v Speaker 3>And and and at the same time there's big pharma

0:26:42.520 --> 0:26:46.080
<v Speaker 3>with with the infrastructure already in place. So there is

0:26:46.160 --> 0:26:51.639
<v Speaker 3>a very strong argument why it's far more efficient for

0:26:51.640 --> 0:26:57.439
<v Speaker 3>for these promising assets to to effectively transition to an

0:26:57.600 --> 0:27:02.439
<v Speaker 3>entity that already has the commercialization machine in place. There

0:27:02.520 --> 0:27:04.800
<v Speaker 3>there are a lot of efficiencies there, without a doubt,

0:27:05.040 --> 0:27:09.119
<v Speaker 3>And and the same is probably true on the regulatory side.

0:27:09.600 --> 0:27:11.320
<v Speaker 3>We all would like to think that we can figure

0:27:11.320 --> 0:27:14.800
<v Speaker 3>out the ft A, but but the mileage that you

0:27:14.880 --> 0:27:18.760
<v Speaker 3>have with them really matters, right And and of course

0:27:19.400 --> 0:27:23.360
<v Speaker 3>larger pharmaceutical companies have a lot more experience dealing with

0:27:23.600 --> 0:27:27.600
<v Speaker 3>reading the tea leaves and having those softer interactions with

0:27:27.680 --> 0:27:31.200
<v Speaker 3>the with the f d A, so from for later

0:27:31.240 --> 0:27:37.359
<v Speaker 3>stage development, there are a lot of efficiencies. The point

0:27:37.400 --> 0:27:40.639
<v Speaker 3>that that really troubled me during the last couple of

0:27:40.720 --> 0:27:44.800
<v Speaker 3>years about all of this was probably the meta within transaction,

0:27:45.840 --> 0:27:48.840
<v Speaker 3>which was which was not in Life of Sciences. But

0:27:49.520 --> 0:27:55.240
<v Speaker 3>this whole notion that Meta is a potential competitor without

0:27:55.240 --> 0:28:00.679
<v Speaker 3>ever having declared so in a different market because it

0:28:00.760 --> 0:28:07.240
<v Speaker 3>can its mere presence is a disciplining force, and that

0:28:07.440 --> 0:28:14.680
<v Speaker 3>potential threat of entry is competition enough for antitrust purposes,

0:28:15.119 --> 0:28:20.360
<v Speaker 3>and therefore its acquisition of within could be problematic. I mean,

0:28:20.400 --> 0:28:25.439
<v Speaker 3>obviously the case got decided against the FDC in that case,

0:28:26.720 --> 0:28:29.680
<v Speaker 3>but if you apply that logic, a lot of these

0:28:29.960 --> 0:28:39.600
<v Speaker 3>big pharma acquiring pipeline transactions start to look really well risky,

0:28:39.840 --> 0:28:42.520
<v Speaker 3>right if the FDC is going to take that approach,

0:28:43.320 --> 0:28:45.200
<v Speaker 3>I sure hope they don't take that approach in this

0:28:45.320 --> 0:28:50.520
<v Speaker 3>industry because the inherent efficiencies are just too many in

0:28:50.840 --> 0:28:52.200
<v Speaker 3>a lot of these transactions.

0:28:53.520 --> 0:28:55.959
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, And you know that's a part of the problem

0:28:56.000 --> 0:28:58.360
<v Speaker 2>because what they need you as an expert witness, I

0:28:58.400 --> 0:29:01.000
<v Speaker 2>guess the drug company is when they up there, because

0:29:01.320 --> 0:29:07.040
<v Speaker 2>those inherent efficiencies are being downplayed now right by the FTC,

0:29:07.640 --> 0:29:10.240
<v Speaker 2>not just in these deals but across the board. And

0:29:11.160 --> 0:29:14.200
<v Speaker 2>you know, there it seems like they're already sort of

0:29:14.280 --> 0:29:18.760
<v Speaker 2>exercising their new approach here and not really thinking about

0:29:19.320 --> 0:29:21.719
<v Speaker 2>everything that the both of you just talked about with

0:29:21.760 --> 0:29:24.320
<v Speaker 2>respect to why m and a kind of has to

0:29:24.360 --> 0:29:27.400
<v Speaker 2>happen for some of these really small companies, and we've

0:29:27.400 --> 0:29:29.880
<v Speaker 2>seen them challenge Amgen and Horizon, and we're going to

0:29:29.960 --> 0:29:31.960
<v Speaker 2>talk about that now because it's a really to me,

0:29:32.080 --> 0:29:35.040
<v Speaker 2>this is a really was a surprise, and it's an

0:29:35.080 --> 0:29:37.560
<v Speaker 2>interesting case because if we go back to what Armand

0:29:37.640 --> 0:29:41.960
<v Speaker 2>started with, where he talked about overlaps vertical relationships, these

0:29:42.000 --> 0:29:45.240
<v Speaker 2>companies have neither. They don't have if you look at

0:29:45.240 --> 0:29:49.640
<v Speaker 2>even pipeline and marketed products, they don't have a horizontal overlap.

0:29:50.040 --> 0:29:54.680
<v Speaker 2>They it doesn't vertically integrate Amgen in any way. But

0:29:54.800 --> 0:29:59.160
<v Speaker 2>yet the FTC has went ahead ensued to try to

0:29:59.160 --> 0:30:01.520
<v Speaker 2>block the deal. Now we've heard in the news lately

0:30:01.680 --> 0:30:04.480
<v Speaker 2>that they've paused a few things to maybe talk about

0:30:04.520 --> 0:30:07.960
<v Speaker 2>settlement doesn't necessarily mean it's going to settle. Hasn't settled yet.

0:30:08.000 --> 0:30:10.440
<v Speaker 2>It's supposed to go to trial on the FTC's motion

0:30:10.960 --> 0:30:14.640
<v Speaker 2>for preliminary injunction on September thirteenth. Armand talk to us

0:30:14.640 --> 0:30:17.400
<v Speaker 2>a little bit about that case. What are the FTC's concerns,

0:30:17.640 --> 0:30:19.320
<v Speaker 2>what is the theory of harm there, and what are

0:30:19.360 --> 0:30:20.920
<v Speaker 2>your thoughts about that theory of harm.

0:30:21.240 --> 0:30:28.200
<v Speaker 3>Okay, so the theory is really hard. It is very rare,

0:30:29.080 --> 0:30:34.000
<v Speaker 3>probably unique, but not so novel. Right, Well, we've seen

0:30:34.160 --> 0:30:38.600
<v Speaker 3>investigations based on a similar theory in the past, and

0:30:38.600 --> 0:30:42.800
<v Speaker 3>we can talk about some past transactions where similar issues

0:30:42.800 --> 0:30:46.880
<v Speaker 3>were explored by the agencies. But in essence, what's happening

0:30:46.920 --> 0:30:52.800
<v Speaker 3>here is Horizon a fantastic company. They have amazing technology

0:30:52.840 --> 0:30:56.800
<v Speaker 3>and they have, in the FDC's viewed, they have two

0:30:56.840 --> 0:31:04.480
<v Speaker 3>assets commercialized in two separate rare diseases, one in gout,

0:31:04.640 --> 0:31:09.120
<v Speaker 3>the other one was I forget which one it was

0:31:10.040 --> 0:31:17.800
<v Speaker 3>exactly yeah, iright, disease, and according to the f d C,

0:31:18.080 --> 0:31:23.239
<v Speaker 3>both have effectively a monopoly position. So this is a

0:31:23.240 --> 0:31:31.480
<v Speaker 3>monopoly position changing hands from Horizon to the buyer and

0:31:31.520 --> 0:31:36.640
<v Speaker 3>this transaction, so why why does that matter? There's already

0:31:36.640 --> 0:31:39.360
<v Speaker 3>a monopoly. According to the f d C, Amgen is

0:31:39.360 --> 0:31:43.000
<v Speaker 3>in a better position to maintain that monopoly and maybe

0:31:43.120 --> 0:31:47.360
<v Speaker 3>leverage that monopoly potentially to other products, maintain the monopoly

0:31:47.400 --> 0:31:52.120
<v Speaker 3>by presumably keeping new competitors for these monopoly assets. I

0:31:52.160 --> 0:31:53.840
<v Speaker 3>call them monopoly. I don't know if that's the case,

0:31:53.880 --> 0:31:57.520
<v Speaker 3>but that's that's effectively. What's what is being alleged, So

0:31:57.560 --> 0:31:59.920
<v Speaker 3>I'll go with that as the worst case scenario for

0:32:00.080 --> 0:32:03.920
<v Speaker 3>the parties and UH and the theory is that Amgen

0:32:04.040 --> 0:32:07.480
<v Speaker 3>is in a better position to keep stiff arm whatever

0:32:08.840 --> 0:32:12.960
<v Speaker 3>competitors for these two products, and that Verizon will not

0:32:13.080 --> 0:32:16.440
<v Speaker 3>be able to do it as effectively as Amgen. So

0:32:16.480 --> 0:32:20.719
<v Speaker 3>it's a monopoly maintenance kind of theory. We we typically

0:32:20.760 --> 0:32:24.360
<v Speaker 3>would call that a conglomerate effect because there is no overlap.

0:32:24.760 --> 0:32:29.000
<v Speaker 3>It's not a referring back to my earlier comments, there

0:32:29.040 --> 0:32:33.440
<v Speaker 3>is no coordinated effects story here. There is no Uni

0:32:33.520 --> 0:32:37.080
<v Speaker 3>ladder effects. The two companies are not competitors. No, there's

0:32:37.120 --> 0:32:39.760
<v Speaker 3>no allegation that there's going to be less competitors in

0:32:39.800 --> 0:32:43.400
<v Speaker 3>the market. So in that sense, it's a conglomerate effect.

0:32:43.600 --> 0:32:48.520
<v Speaker 3>Amgen is just bigger and better at keeping competition at Bay.

0:32:48.680 --> 0:32:51.880
<v Speaker 3>That's the theory. Now we've seen a lot of investigations

0:32:52.400 --> 0:32:56.040
<v Speaker 3>with with such theories. We just haven't seen them actually

0:32:56.040 --> 0:33:00.600
<v Speaker 3>go to go to a courtroom, and for good reason,

0:33:00.680 --> 0:33:06.400
<v Speaker 3>because they typically fail on the facts. You really need

0:33:06.440 --> 0:33:09.880
<v Speaker 3>to have facts line up uniquely to be able to

0:33:09.960 --> 0:33:14.280
<v Speaker 3>allege that and then actually prove it in front of

0:33:14.280 --> 0:33:21.000
<v Speaker 3>an arbiter. A judge or alj what have you, and

0:33:21.080 --> 0:33:23.520
<v Speaker 3>I suspect, look, I haven't seen the record in the case,

0:33:24.040 --> 0:33:26.040
<v Speaker 3>but it's going to be really hard for the FDC

0:33:26.240 --> 0:33:27.280
<v Speaker 3>to prove a case like this.

0:33:28.200 --> 0:33:31.760
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I agree with that, And I read recently Amgen's

0:33:31.800 --> 0:33:34.760
<v Speaker 2>response to the FTC's motion for preliminary junction, and I

0:33:34.760 --> 0:33:38.680
<v Speaker 2>thought it was actually really strong and well written. Convinced

0:33:38.800 --> 0:33:41.280
<v Speaker 2>me even more that the FTC would have a real

0:33:41.440 --> 0:33:46.080
<v Speaker 2>uphill climb if this ends up going to court. It'll

0:33:46.120 --> 0:33:48.719
<v Speaker 2>be interesting to see whether they settle or not. I

0:33:48.760 --> 0:33:52.560
<v Speaker 2>can't I'm not sure how that will look because Amgen

0:33:52.600 --> 0:33:56.280
<v Speaker 2>has offered a behavioral settlement, in other words, a settlement

0:33:56.400 --> 0:34:01.160
<v Speaker 2>promising to not bundle those two the to horizon drugs

0:34:01.240 --> 0:34:04.280
<v Speaker 2>you just talked about, and the FTC has been pretty

0:34:04.280 --> 0:34:06.760
<v Speaker 2>clear about not wanting to accept that kind of a settlement.

0:34:06.840 --> 0:34:09.399
<v Speaker 2>So I'm not sure what they're talking about right now.

0:34:09.440 --> 0:34:11.440
<v Speaker 2>We know they're having settlement talks, they have said, so

0:34:12.160 --> 0:34:14.840
<v Speaker 2>I don't know if Amgen's going to offer up something

0:34:14.840 --> 0:34:17.160
<v Speaker 2>more than that, But I can't think of anything structural

0:34:17.160 --> 0:34:20.440
<v Speaker 2>that it could offer up. But I would think, at

0:34:20.520 --> 0:34:23.560
<v Speaker 2>least from the FTC's perspective, it might be the sensible

0:34:23.560 --> 0:34:26.200
<v Speaker 2>thing to do, not only because I think they'd have

0:34:26.239 --> 0:34:28.640
<v Speaker 2>a tough time winning, but also because Amgen has also

0:34:28.800 --> 0:34:32.239
<v Speaker 2>made put in as an affirmative defense and put in

0:34:32.280 --> 0:34:36.279
<v Speaker 2>for summary judgment that the FTC structure is unconstitutional, and

0:34:36.320 --> 0:34:38.239
<v Speaker 2>I really doubt the FTC wants to get into that.

0:34:39.880 --> 0:34:43.320
<v Speaker 2>So Mark, but let's just assume we're talking about settling.

0:34:43.360 --> 0:34:45.480
<v Speaker 2>We're talking about they probably we don't think they can

0:34:45.520 --> 0:34:48.399
<v Speaker 2>win in court. But let's just assume, for argument's sake,

0:34:48.719 --> 0:34:50.600
<v Speaker 2>if this went to court on the theory that armand

0:34:50.719 --> 0:34:53.360
<v Speaker 2>just described right, and the FTC did manage to win this.

0:34:53.440 --> 0:34:55.720
<v Speaker 2>Now I say win, I mean, get the preliminary injunction

0:34:56.200 --> 0:34:59.040
<v Speaker 2>go forward before the alj What kind of impact do

0:34:59.040 --> 0:35:00.360
<v Speaker 2>you think that I'll have? Like how how will that

0:35:00.440 --> 0:35:03.479
<v Speaker 2>reverberate amongst.

0:35:02.880 --> 0:35:09.320
<v Speaker 4>That would be a chilling and sort of broad reaching

0:35:10.440 --> 0:35:14.279
<v Speaker 4>scenario to play out. I mean, I think you know,

0:35:14.400 --> 0:35:18.400
<v Speaker 4>for if we think about Amgen specifically for a second,

0:35:19.000 --> 0:35:21.120
<v Speaker 4>I mean, where does that leave them?

0:35:21.280 --> 0:35:21.440
<v Speaker 3>Right?

0:35:21.520 --> 0:35:23.960
<v Speaker 4>I mean, this is a large company, as we've discussed

0:35:24.000 --> 0:35:27.440
<v Speaker 4>that sort of, I think it's fair to say has

0:35:27.480 --> 0:35:31.680
<v Speaker 4>a revenue growth challenge. And that's not a secret. I've

0:35:31.719 --> 0:35:34.000
<v Speaker 4>been writing about that in my research for a couple

0:35:34.000 --> 0:35:38.319
<v Speaker 4>of years. But this is, you know, one of the

0:35:38.360 --> 0:35:44.359
<v Speaker 4>standard ways that a company like Amgen layers on some

0:35:44.400 --> 0:35:48.839
<v Speaker 4>additional revenue growth. So what are they to do then,

0:35:49.200 --> 0:35:51.759
<v Speaker 4>in this sort of scenario where they're not allowed to

0:35:51.800 --> 0:35:55.720
<v Speaker 4>buy a company like Horizon. I mean, Arman just talked

0:35:55.719 --> 0:36:00.239
<v Speaker 4>about the fact that they're buying a couple of of

0:36:01.239 --> 0:36:09.680
<v Speaker 4>monopolies commercial monopolies well from Amgender any other potential acquirers perspective.

0:36:11.440 --> 0:36:14.440
<v Speaker 4>You know, if you take the anti competitive or anti

0:36:14.480 --> 0:36:19.839
<v Speaker 4>trust aspects out of the picture, that's almost exactly what

0:36:19.880 --> 0:36:22.879
<v Speaker 4>they would want to acquire, right. You know, you don't

0:36:22.880 --> 0:36:25.640
<v Speaker 4>want to go out and buy a company that has

0:36:26.080 --> 0:36:30.480
<v Speaker 4>a stable of kind of me too or just incremental

0:36:30.640 --> 0:36:35.400
<v Speaker 4>or you know, bit players in a crowded market necessarily,

0:36:35.440 --> 0:36:38.040
<v Speaker 4>So you know that I'm not sure what amgine would

0:36:38.080 --> 0:36:41.880
<v Speaker 4>do at that point. They would probably have to maybe

0:36:42.200 --> 0:36:46.319
<v Speaker 4>start to think about some a larger number of smaller

0:36:47.080 --> 0:36:51.000
<v Speaker 4>deals that by definition would probably take longer to kind

0:36:51.040 --> 0:36:55.720
<v Speaker 4>of play out in terms of actually translating into revenue.

0:36:55.719 --> 0:36:58.759
<v Speaker 4>And I think you would see much the same sort

0:36:58.800 --> 0:37:03.160
<v Speaker 4>of shift and strategy throughout the industry, and it would

0:37:03.200 --> 0:37:08.000
<v Speaker 4>have significant I think negative or you know, it would

0:37:08.040 --> 0:37:12.359
<v Speaker 4>be a significant sort of headwind for a number of

0:37:13.040 --> 0:37:17.880
<v Speaker 4>sort of emerging smaller biotech companies, which, as we discussed,

0:37:18.120 --> 0:37:21.400
<v Speaker 4>you know, kind of have as a tantalizing part of

0:37:21.480 --> 0:37:30.319
<v Speaker 4>their potential valuation or their potential corporate arc, you know,

0:37:30.840 --> 0:37:39.880
<v Speaker 4>growing into something that is ultimately attractive to suitors. I mean,

0:37:39.920 --> 0:37:44.600
<v Speaker 4>I guess we in this as you're I think suggesting

0:37:44.719 --> 0:37:49.040
<v Speaker 4>unlikely scenario, you know you'd I guess we would have

0:37:49.120 --> 0:37:51.799
<v Speaker 4>to try to figure out how far down the food

0:37:51.880 --> 0:37:55.879
<v Speaker 4>chain sort of this effect would go. I mean, would

0:37:55.920 --> 0:38:00.360
<v Speaker 4>it just be companies like Horizon that already have moultiple

0:38:00.520 --> 0:38:04.360
<v Speaker 4>marketed products or with the FTC sort of make the

0:38:04.480 --> 0:38:09.239
<v Speaker 4>same argument, even if it's a biotech company that just

0:38:09.280 --> 0:38:14.000
<v Speaker 4>has some Phase three, you know, late stage programs. I mean,

0:38:14.280 --> 0:38:21.440
<v Speaker 4>so the farther, you know, the the the more broad

0:38:21.520 --> 0:38:25.960
<v Speaker 4>they were at net would be cast or that shadow

0:38:26.040 --> 0:38:30.680
<v Speaker 4>would sort of fall to earlier and earlier stage biotech companies.

0:38:30.719 --> 0:38:33.960
<v Speaker 4>I mean that would be fairly disastrous I think for

0:38:34.040 --> 0:38:35.080
<v Speaker 4>the for the sector.

0:38:36.040 --> 0:38:41.680
<v Speaker 2>So we have another pending deal visor, Siegen, right which

0:38:43.680 --> 0:38:46.839
<v Speaker 2>they were issued a second request, meaning they got into

0:38:46.880 --> 0:38:50.600
<v Speaker 2>an in depth investigation with the FTC in July, so

0:38:50.640 --> 0:38:54.040
<v Speaker 2>they're kind of at a month into this in depth investigation.

0:38:54.200 --> 0:38:57.280
<v Speaker 2>This was after they gave the FTC a little extra

0:38:57.320 --> 0:39:01.600
<v Speaker 2>time by pulling and refiling their notification of the deal,

0:39:01.719 --> 0:39:03.520
<v Speaker 2>and so I think some people might have gotten a

0:39:03.520 --> 0:39:05.919
<v Speaker 2>little excited when they pulled in refiled, thinking they could

0:39:05.920 --> 0:39:08.279
<v Speaker 2>get it cleared in thirty days, But now they're kind

0:39:08.280 --> 0:39:09.960
<v Speaker 2>of in for the long haul. And I, you know,

0:39:10.560 --> 0:39:12.400
<v Speaker 2>I'm not really sure what I think is going to

0:39:12.400 --> 0:39:16.280
<v Speaker 2>happen in that deal, because before the Amjen Horizon lawsuit,

0:39:16.640 --> 0:39:19.200
<v Speaker 2>when I thought about the FTC bringing some kind of

0:39:19.200 --> 0:39:21.279
<v Speaker 2>a new type of case, a novel case or a

0:39:21.320 --> 0:39:24.360
<v Speaker 2>test case in pharma to try to slow down generally

0:39:24.480 --> 0:39:27.160
<v Speaker 2>just in general pharma consolidation, I kind of thought it

0:39:27.239 --> 0:39:30.640
<v Speaker 2>might be Pheiser Siegen, And now I'm not really so sure.

0:39:31.080 --> 0:39:33.600
<v Speaker 2>Armand if you can talk about it, I know you

0:39:33.680 --> 0:39:36.160
<v Speaker 2>represent clients, but if you can't talk about it, what

0:39:36.200 --> 0:39:37.920
<v Speaker 2>are your thoughts about what you think is going to

0:39:37.920 --> 0:39:38.480
<v Speaker 2>happen there?

0:39:40.040 --> 0:39:43.160
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that one is a really good question. Jetnif First, So,

0:39:45.200 --> 0:39:51.240
<v Speaker 3>obviously there's been a lot of talking and policy statements

0:39:52.640 --> 0:39:56.960
<v Speaker 3>from agencies across the globe certainly the FDC, but others

0:39:57.000 --> 0:40:01.799
<v Speaker 3>as well, and in quotation marks the troubling state of

0:40:01.840 --> 0:40:07.240
<v Speaker 3>affairs in the pharmaceutical industry, the prevalence of killer acquisitions,

0:40:07.880 --> 0:40:12.000
<v Speaker 3>minimally innovation by leading drug companies, things like that, that

0:40:12.040 --> 0:40:17.040
<v Speaker 3>it's been kind of circulating in the anti trust bar

0:40:17.880 --> 0:40:21.600
<v Speaker 3>for the last couple of years now. As a factual matter,

0:40:21.840 --> 0:40:27.160
<v Speaker 3>I don't necessarily understand where this anst is coming from.

0:40:27.719 --> 0:40:33.320
<v Speaker 3>Obviously there are pharmaceutical companies that have run into problems

0:40:33.320 --> 0:40:36.839
<v Speaker 3>with anti trust law. But but to suggest that there

0:40:36.920 --> 0:40:44.200
<v Speaker 3>is minimal innovation, I think is it's a stretch past.

0:40:44.640 --> 0:40:48.839
<v Speaker 3>I mean, it's been a tremendous source of innovation. It's

0:40:48.880 --> 0:40:53.560
<v Speaker 3>been incredible, the pace with which development has happened, despite

0:40:53.600 --> 0:40:58.319
<v Speaker 3>the regulatory environment, and the and the and and the

0:40:58.520 --> 0:41:02.560
<v Speaker 3>expense and the and thelatory scrutiny that goes with what

0:41:02.640 --> 0:41:07.960
<v Speaker 3>the clinical trial process. Despite that, I see an amazing

0:41:08.160 --> 0:41:13.479
<v Speaker 3>over arching trend, a secular trend in incredible innovation, life

0:41:13.520 --> 0:41:16.720
<v Speaker 3>saving innovation, better quality of life, et cetera, et cetera.

0:41:16.800 --> 0:41:18.880
<v Speaker 3>I could go on and on and how wonderful this

0:41:18.960 --> 0:41:24.560
<v Speaker 3>industry is generally as as a as a general matter

0:41:24.600 --> 0:41:27.279
<v Speaker 3>of course, at the individual level, there are issues, but

0:41:27.840 --> 0:41:33.160
<v Speaker 3>not as it's not necessarily problematic from an overall anti

0:41:33.160 --> 0:41:37.840
<v Speaker 3>trust policy perspective. Now with that background, of course, it

0:41:37.960 --> 0:41:39.640
<v Speaker 3>was a given that this is going to be a

0:41:39.680 --> 0:41:46.239
<v Speaker 3>long protracted investigation. It is the largest transaction since I

0:41:46.360 --> 0:41:50.040
<v Speaker 3>believe that at the Allergan transaction we talked about earlier,

0:41:51.320 --> 0:41:55.160
<v Speaker 3>at forty three billion dollars. This is right in the

0:41:55.160 --> 0:41:59.960
<v Speaker 3>sweet spot of things that the FDC probably should invest

0:42:00.120 --> 0:42:04.239
<v Speaker 3>gate depends based on their track record in the last

0:42:04.280 --> 0:42:11.040
<v Speaker 3>three years. But the lack of any material overlap, especially

0:42:11.080 --> 0:42:14.239
<v Speaker 3>with Pfizer, which has A and Mark would know far

0:42:14.320 --> 0:42:17.719
<v Speaker 3>better than I would relatively targeted on college of portfolio.

0:42:18.200 --> 0:42:20.640
<v Speaker 3>To my recollection, I've done deals on the Indian College

0:42:20.680 --> 0:42:24.120
<v Speaker 3>is spaced across from Pfizer, where I had the pleasure

0:42:24.160 --> 0:42:30.680
<v Speaker 3>of getting somewhat familiar with their portfolio and UH and

0:42:30.800 --> 0:42:35.200
<v Speaker 3>I don't see how this is creating any tangible anti

0:42:35.239 --> 0:42:42.080
<v Speaker 3>trust issue. Putting together an a d C portfolio a

0:42:42.160 --> 0:42:47.759
<v Speaker 3>large one UH into into into the Pfizer platform, I

0:42:47.960 --> 0:42:51.480
<v Speaker 3>don't necessarily see an anti trust issue here unless you

0:42:51.560 --> 0:42:55.720
<v Speaker 3>go into things like those conglomerate effects et cetera, et cetera.

0:42:55.840 --> 0:43:00.239
<v Speaker 3>You know some some more less used theories, but I again,

0:43:00.280 --> 0:43:02.080
<v Speaker 3>on the facts, it's going to be really really hard

0:43:02.120 --> 0:43:05.160
<v Speaker 3>for the agency to uh to to find things to

0:43:05.239 --> 0:43:11.480
<v Speaker 3>complain about here. Uh Aviser doesn't have a bad track

0:43:11.520 --> 0:43:16.800
<v Speaker 3>record in antitrust conduct, which I know the Task Force

0:43:16.840 --> 0:43:21.960
<v Speaker 3>has effectively made a part of our anti trust analysis.

0:43:22.000 --> 0:43:25.200
<v Speaker 3>Now bad actors is now all of a sudden the

0:43:25.680 --> 0:43:29.640
<v Speaker 3>part of the merger analysis. But the visor doesn't really

0:43:29.680 --> 0:43:33.520
<v Speaker 3>suffer from that, neither does Segen. So I would expect

0:43:33.520 --> 0:43:38.040
<v Speaker 3>this to clear and unless there are some facts that

0:43:38.120 --> 0:43:41.640
<v Speaker 3>are not known to the public, right, let let's hope

0:43:41.640 --> 0:43:42.480
<v Speaker 3>that's what happens.

0:43:43.200 --> 0:43:46.040
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, you're your analysis aligns with mine because that's that's

0:43:46.040 --> 0:43:48.400
<v Speaker 2>where I've come out on it too. And you know,

0:43:48.440 --> 0:43:50.600
<v Speaker 2>I was rereading the article that you wrote about a

0:43:50.680 --> 0:43:52.920
<v Speaker 2>year ago and something that jumped down out at me.

0:43:52.960 --> 0:43:56.120
<v Speaker 2>I was actually really surprised. You were talking about the

0:43:56.120 --> 0:43:58.400
<v Speaker 2>Bristol Meyers Script Cell Gene deal and you said the

0:43:58.480 --> 0:44:01.920
<v Speaker 2>FDC investigated whether the transaction would have an impact on

0:44:02.000 --> 0:44:06.200
<v Speaker 2>innovation competition in a broader oncology space, and the staff

0:44:06.520 --> 0:44:10.319
<v Speaker 2>concluded that it was unlikely because the FTC found that

0:44:10.320 --> 0:44:13.719
<v Speaker 2>there were no fewer than seven hundred and eleven companies

0:44:13.760 --> 0:44:16.880
<v Speaker 2>conducting late stage research and development in oncology. Now, I

0:44:16.920 --> 0:44:18.160
<v Speaker 2>know oncology is really.

0:44:17.960 --> 0:44:22.400
<v Speaker 4>Broad, but it's probably eight hundred now, yeah.

0:44:22.239 --> 0:44:26.279
<v Speaker 2>Exactly, And so it would be hard, it would be

0:44:26.360 --> 0:44:29.960
<v Speaker 2>really difficult for me to see how the FTC could

0:44:31.040 --> 0:44:33.719
<v Speaker 2>bring a case based on a theory that actually had

0:44:33.760 --> 0:44:37.400
<v Speaker 2>a good chance in court on this one, right, And

0:44:37.480 --> 0:44:39.440
<v Speaker 2>I know that was a different FTC that came to

0:44:39.480 --> 0:44:42.280
<v Speaker 2>that conclusion for Bristol Myers squip. But still, the facts

0:44:42.280 --> 0:44:48.480
<v Speaker 2>are the facts. So it's an interesting point there, Mark,

0:44:49.719 --> 0:44:52.799
<v Speaker 2>What are you seeing with respect to companies investors with

0:44:52.880 --> 0:44:56.200
<v Speaker 2>respect to this kind of new FTC? Are you seeing concern?

0:44:56.360 --> 0:44:59.799
<v Speaker 2>Are you getting a lot of questions and are you

0:44:59.800 --> 0:45:02.000
<v Speaker 2>at adapting your own analysis in any way?

0:45:02.480 --> 0:45:08.640
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think definitely a lot of questions, But I

0:45:09.000 --> 0:45:16.920
<v Speaker 4>I don't know if investors are Maybe they've been reading

0:45:16.960 --> 0:45:20.160
<v Speaker 4>your research on Amgen Horizon, you know, where You've been

0:45:20.200 --> 0:45:23.239
<v Speaker 4>pretty clear that you think it's an uphill battle for

0:45:23.400 --> 0:45:28.000
<v Speaker 4>FTC for example, But I mean it's taken on a

0:45:28.040 --> 0:45:33.680
<v Speaker 4>new level of importance I think for clients of Bloomberg

0:45:33.760 --> 0:45:38.839
<v Speaker 4>and investors, But I don't get the sense that they

0:45:38.880 --> 0:45:42.320
<v Speaker 4>have a sky's falling kind of view. I mean, certainly,

0:45:42.400 --> 0:45:46.920
<v Speaker 4>that negative kind of doomsday scenario that I was just

0:45:47.200 --> 0:45:51.960
<v Speaker 4>walking through, I'm sure is in the back of biopharma investors'

0:45:52.000 --> 0:45:58.960
<v Speaker 4>minds and at the companies. So, you know, I think

0:45:59.800 --> 0:46:07.719
<v Speaker 4>how things unfold with Amgen Horizon will probably and Pfizer Cgen,

0:46:08.200 --> 0:46:14.439
<v Speaker 4>I think will kind of dictate if there really needs

0:46:14.480 --> 0:46:20.160
<v Speaker 4>to be a fundamental shift in how investors think about

0:46:20.880 --> 0:46:25.440
<v Speaker 4>M and A or getting involved in in biotech. I mean,

0:46:25.520 --> 0:46:27.520
<v Speaker 4>you know, I can tell you on the day that

0:46:27.600 --> 0:46:31.839
<v Speaker 4>the Amgen Horizon deal was announced, which I was down

0:46:31.880 --> 0:46:36.000
<v Speaker 4>in New Orleans attending the ASH conference, which is the

0:46:36.000 --> 0:46:39.880
<v Speaker 4>big hematology conference, and I was getting ready to go

0:46:39.920 --> 0:46:42.239
<v Speaker 4>on Bloomberg TV to talk about it, and I was

0:46:42.320 --> 0:46:47.680
<v Speaker 4>getting a lot of inbound investor client questions, but they

0:46:47.719 --> 0:46:51.960
<v Speaker 4>were you know, and maybe it's because even though we've

0:46:52.000 --> 0:46:56.279
<v Speaker 4>been hearing about this new FTC, people are still kind

0:46:56.320 --> 0:47:02.680
<v Speaker 4>of operating in the old mode, which you know, the

0:47:02.800 --> 0:47:06.719
<v Speaker 4>questions were about overlap and possible remedies, you know, the

0:47:06.760 --> 0:47:09.439
<v Speaker 4>things that Armon and you were talking about, kind of

0:47:09.480 --> 0:47:13.680
<v Speaker 4>the pre the twenty nineteen and before mindset. So I

0:47:13.719 --> 0:47:18.000
<v Speaker 4>think investors are still to some extent kind of operating

0:47:18.040 --> 0:47:23.560
<v Speaker 4>in that framework. Maybe that's a bit of optimism or

0:47:23.600 --> 0:47:27.520
<v Speaker 4>a bit of inability to kind of contemplate a new

0:47:28.080 --> 0:47:29.040
<v Speaker 4>harsher reality.

0:47:30.000 --> 0:47:32.280
<v Speaker 2>I think some of that could also be that things

0:47:32.360 --> 0:47:34.839
<v Speaker 2>This new FTC that we're talking about is kind of

0:47:34.920 --> 0:47:38.359
<v Speaker 2>advancing slowly, because I actually made myself a list of

0:47:38.480 --> 0:47:40.920
<v Speaker 2>a lot of deals that were filed, and I probably

0:47:40.920 --> 0:47:42.919
<v Speaker 2>missed some, but I think I got most of them.

0:47:43.239 --> 0:47:45.760
<v Speaker 2>And I looked at from about May of twenty twenty

0:47:45.800 --> 0:47:49.359
<v Speaker 2>two forward because that's when there was a solid democratic

0:47:49.400 --> 0:47:52.240
<v Speaker 2>majority at the FTC with kind of this new approach

0:47:52.320 --> 0:47:56.399
<v Speaker 2>or new mindset. And I have here twelve deals where

0:47:56.440 --> 0:48:00.200
<v Speaker 2>the HSR expired, one that HSR expired fter or a

0:48:00.200 --> 0:48:03.280
<v Speaker 2>pull and refile, one that was investigated but then closed

0:48:03.400 --> 0:48:06.839
<v Speaker 2>without any concessions or remedy, and then just the one

0:48:06.920 --> 0:48:10.960
<v Speaker 2>single lawsuit Amgen Horizon. So it's been kind of up

0:48:11.040 --> 0:48:13.160
<v Speaker 2>until l Amgen Horizon, it would kind of seem like

0:48:13.200 --> 0:48:17.960
<v Speaker 2>business as usual, right. We keep seeing the foreshadowing of

0:48:18.000 --> 0:48:20.200
<v Speaker 2>something different, and that's why I thought it might be

0:48:20.480 --> 0:48:24.240
<v Speaker 2>Advisor Siegen. But because we're waiting for this something different,

0:48:24.320 --> 0:48:26.200
<v Speaker 2>I guess we got it with Amgen horizon, but it

0:48:26.280 --> 0:48:28.680
<v Speaker 2>might be part of why some of the investors are

0:48:28.719 --> 0:48:32.359
<v Speaker 2>just thinking in terms of the old, the traditional analysis

0:48:32.360 --> 0:48:36.200
<v Speaker 2>and kind of status quo armon your advising clients. I mean,

0:48:36.200 --> 0:48:39.560
<v Speaker 2>that's got to be hard right now. I would think

0:48:39.600 --> 0:48:42.239
<v Speaker 2>it would be hard to advise on legal matters. And

0:48:43.000 --> 0:48:46.040
<v Speaker 2>have you changed your approach in the way you're talking

0:48:46.080 --> 0:48:47.400
<v Speaker 2>to clients about these things?

0:48:49.840 --> 0:48:53.920
<v Speaker 3>We certainly have. I mean getting involved early is now

0:48:54.320 --> 0:48:58.040
<v Speaker 3>the key issue. And I say that because it might

0:48:58.080 --> 0:49:00.560
<v Speaker 3>have come across as a constant thing in all of

0:49:00.600 --> 0:49:05.840
<v Speaker 3>my prior comments. Facts really matter, right, I mean, the

0:49:06.200 --> 0:49:09.719
<v Speaker 3>agency is moving in a different kind of theoretical approach,

0:49:10.239 --> 0:49:15.840
<v Speaker 3>but theory can get anybody so far, and the facts

0:49:15.840 --> 0:49:18.920
<v Speaker 3>really matter. And in the in this industry where there

0:49:19.000 --> 0:49:22.680
<v Speaker 3>is so much innovation in different corners of the world

0:49:22.800 --> 0:49:27.240
<v Speaker 3>happening as we speak, getting to know the facts better

0:49:27.280 --> 0:49:31.600
<v Speaker 3>than the next person is really key, and understanding those

0:49:31.680 --> 0:49:38.680
<v Speaker 3>uncertainties on the innovation side, because look, competition and UH

0:49:38.880 --> 0:49:43.759
<v Speaker 3>and oligopoly theory is all about uncertainties and risk and

0:49:43.840 --> 0:49:46.640
<v Speaker 3>how to avoid it, et cetera, et cetera. Right, It's

0:49:46.680 --> 0:49:50.560
<v Speaker 3>that it's that competitive kind of wild animal in the

0:49:50.680 --> 0:49:53.319
<v Speaker 3>in the forest and who's going to eat you kind

0:49:53.320 --> 0:49:56.920
<v Speaker 3>of mentality that that drives anti trust analysis, or should

0:49:56.960 --> 0:50:00.400
<v Speaker 3>drive anti trust analysis. We want that, right, want that

0:50:00.520 --> 0:50:05.560
<v Speaker 3>predator prey kind of mental framework, and this industry is

0:50:05.640 --> 0:50:09.680
<v Speaker 3>full of that. So it's just a matter of lining

0:50:09.760 --> 0:50:12.960
<v Speaker 3>up your facts, uh, to put to put yourself in

0:50:13.000 --> 0:50:16.360
<v Speaker 3>the best position to avoid a second request. That's really

0:50:16.400 --> 0:50:22.359
<v Speaker 3>like the key issue, especially advising companies that are pre

0:50:22.400 --> 0:50:26.240
<v Speaker 3>revenue that that is one of the key issues because

0:50:26.880 --> 0:50:30.520
<v Speaker 3>a second request is not just a second request in

0:50:30.560 --> 0:50:33.799
<v Speaker 3>the sense that you're dealing with an expensive process, but

0:50:33.960 --> 0:50:37.759
<v Speaker 3>it comes with all the other And this is where

0:50:37.800 --> 0:50:40.320
<v Speaker 3>I need to put on my life science's guy hat.

0:50:42.080 --> 0:50:44.360
<v Speaker 3>What do you do during that timeframe? What's going to

0:50:44.400 --> 0:50:47.040
<v Speaker 3>happen to the clinical development? What are what are the

0:50:47.040 --> 0:50:48.920
<v Speaker 3>showers operating covenants going to work?

0:50:50.440 --> 0:50:50.640
<v Speaker 2>Uh?

0:50:50.719 --> 0:50:53.920
<v Speaker 3>What about the material adverse events clauses and the agreements?

0:50:54.000 --> 0:50:54.160
<v Speaker 1>Right?

0:50:54.440 --> 0:50:57.720
<v Speaker 3>What happens if if if you have a serious adverse

0:50:57.760 --> 0:51:00.520
<v Speaker 3>event in one of your clinical trials is not going

0:51:00.520 --> 0:51:04.960
<v Speaker 3>to mean the deal is off? Do you need financing

0:51:05.040 --> 0:51:09.200
<v Speaker 3>during a twelve month FTC investigation? Right? Things like that,

0:51:09.520 --> 0:51:14.120
<v Speaker 3>Getting involved early on and understanding those is really where

0:51:14.160 --> 0:51:16.719
<v Speaker 3>we focus right now. And then we hope for the

0:51:16.719 --> 0:51:20.319
<v Speaker 3>best with the FDC that we avoid the prolonged investigation.

0:51:21.120 --> 0:51:25.479
<v Speaker 3>But really the focus is on helping the clients get

0:51:25.520 --> 0:51:30.480
<v Speaker 3>through the process, not just the second request investigation. I

0:51:30.480 --> 0:51:33.319
<v Speaker 3>think on the facts you develop as much as you can,

0:51:33.360 --> 0:51:36.279
<v Speaker 3>but advising them on how do you deal with the

0:51:36.320 --> 0:51:41.160
<v Speaker 3>rest of the operation and the risks that the buyer

0:51:41.239 --> 0:51:43.680
<v Speaker 3>might walk away for this reason or that reason during

0:51:43.719 --> 0:51:46.319
<v Speaker 3>that process. Those are key issues that we grapple with

0:51:46.640 --> 0:51:47.760
<v Speaker 3>and advise the clients.

0:51:49.640 --> 0:51:51.319
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so you're looking at it in a much more

0:51:51.320 --> 0:51:54.360
<v Speaker 2>holistic way than I think a standard anti trist lawyer would,

0:51:54.360 --> 0:51:57.600
<v Speaker 2>which you're perfectly suited for that. Having come from sam

0:51:57.680 --> 0:51:59.080
<v Speaker 2>and Meed, I call it Salm and Met because I

0:51:59.080 --> 0:52:01.040
<v Speaker 2>can't remember the new name by the company.

0:52:01.080 --> 0:52:03.800
<v Speaker 3>What was it Biasplice, I think now.

0:52:03.840 --> 0:52:07.160
<v Speaker 2>Biosp former Samamed. When armand started with a Samamed, it

0:52:07.280 --> 0:52:14.359
<v Speaker 2>changed over to Biosplies different places. But yes, okay, So

0:52:14.520 --> 0:52:17.440
<v Speaker 2>just one last question that I'll pose to both of

0:52:17.480 --> 0:52:19.960
<v Speaker 2>you and then we'll kind of wrap up, and that

0:52:20.080 --> 0:52:23.480
<v Speaker 2>is just simply, are you seeing given the threat of

0:52:23.520 --> 0:52:28.080
<v Speaker 2>this aggressive scrutiny, are you seeing slow down like companies

0:52:28.080 --> 0:52:31.000
<v Speaker 2>that might have entered a deal, but have chosen not

0:52:31.200 --> 0:52:33.920
<v Speaker 2>to because they're they're concerned about exactly what you just

0:52:33.960 --> 0:52:36.840
<v Speaker 2>laid out, armand the second request, the aggressive FDC, the

0:52:36.880 --> 0:52:39.799
<v Speaker 2>cost of it, all of those issues. I'll start with Mark,

0:52:39.840 --> 0:52:41.960
<v Speaker 2>Are you seeing talk of less activity?

0:52:42.320 --> 0:52:45.160
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I mean armand might have more sort of behind

0:52:45.200 --> 0:52:50.400
<v Speaker 4>the scenes insight into this. From my perspective, I don't.

0:52:50.680 --> 0:52:56.759
<v Speaker 4>I can't really point to any either specific instance, I mean,

0:52:56.840 --> 0:52:59.400
<v Speaker 4>whether a company would comment on such a thing or

0:52:59.440 --> 0:53:05.799
<v Speaker 4>not as clear. You know, I think there remains a

0:53:05.960 --> 0:53:11.239
<v Speaker 4>need for large biotech, in large pharma to kind of

0:53:11.280 --> 0:53:14.080
<v Speaker 4>deal with some of their patent cliffs, to put some

0:53:14.160 --> 0:53:16.640
<v Speaker 4>of these large stockpiles of money to use. And then

0:53:16.680 --> 0:53:19.840
<v Speaker 4>of course, you know, we haven't really talked about the

0:53:19.840 --> 0:53:27.719
<v Speaker 4>biotech downturn, but in you know, there's potential value or

0:53:27.880 --> 0:53:31.800
<v Speaker 4>you know, more attractive valuations, at least for some smaller companies.

0:53:31.880 --> 0:53:35.160
<v Speaker 4>But so I think there's still a lot of potential

0:53:35.280 --> 0:53:37.920
<v Speaker 4>for there to be M and A. And actually, if

0:53:37.960 --> 0:53:40.879
<v Speaker 4>you look at the data, I mean we've sort of

0:53:42.480 --> 0:53:45.640
<v Speaker 4>using the terminal as a resource, have been looking at

0:53:45.640 --> 0:53:49.080
<v Speaker 4>biopharma deals maybe that are a billion dollars or greater

0:53:49.920 --> 0:53:53.359
<v Speaker 4>in value, and we're sort of looking at the data

0:53:53.440 --> 0:53:58.120
<v Speaker 4>announcement of the deal and counting as completed deals that

0:53:58.160 --> 0:54:01.600
<v Speaker 4>have been announced but haven't been you know, consummated yet.

0:54:01.640 --> 0:54:06.240
<v Speaker 4>But you know, we're a little over halfway through twenty

0:54:06.280 --> 0:54:11.319
<v Speaker 4>twenty three, and by those metrics, were already at the

0:54:11.400 --> 0:54:14.440
<v Speaker 4>same number of deals as all of last year. And

0:54:14.520 --> 0:54:18.280
<v Speaker 4>we're actually like eighty five billion dollars in deal value

0:54:19.239 --> 0:54:22.640
<v Speaker 4>so far this year versus seventy last year. Now that's

0:54:22.680 --> 0:54:25.440
<v Speaker 4>kind of a low bar because twenty twenty one and

0:54:25.480 --> 0:54:32.040
<v Speaker 4>twenty twenty two were kind of less standout year, certainly

0:54:32.120 --> 0:54:35.520
<v Speaker 4>compared to twenty nineteen. We talked about a vi Allergan

0:54:35.600 --> 0:54:38.080
<v Speaker 4>and Bristol cell Gene. But so you know, I don't

0:54:38.120 --> 0:54:42.360
<v Speaker 4>really see I haven't heard commentary, and I don't really

0:54:42.440 --> 0:54:48.200
<v Speaker 4>see evidence of a of a slowdown. But again, depending

0:54:48.200 --> 0:54:51.440
<v Speaker 4>on how things go with these two more landmark deals

0:54:51.440 --> 0:54:55.080
<v Speaker 4>that we've been discussing, I think that may chart a

0:54:55.120 --> 0:54:56.000
<v Speaker 4>new course from here.

0:54:56.160 --> 0:54:58.920
<v Speaker 2>Sure, what about you, armand do you see any kind

0:54:58.920 --> 0:54:59.880
<v Speaker 2>of chilling effect?

0:55:00.880 --> 0:55:05.680
<v Speaker 3>I think the conventional wisdom based on PERF just anecdotal

0:55:05.680 --> 0:55:08.480
<v Speaker 3>evidence and uh and kind of the rumor mill from

0:55:08.960 --> 0:55:12.439
<v Speaker 3>from some of our investment bank or friends and other

0:55:12.520 --> 0:55:18.920
<v Speaker 3>council boards are a lot more hesitant in looking at deals.

0:55:19.760 --> 0:55:23.000
<v Speaker 3>I think that's the reality, of course on the cell side.

0:55:23.080 --> 0:55:27.279
<v Speaker 3>On on the target side, the options are pretty limited, right.

0:55:27.320 --> 0:55:30.719
<v Speaker 3>The capital markets are still not great. So if you

0:55:30.840 --> 0:55:34.080
<v Speaker 3>need the if you need that, you know, two hundred

0:55:34.120 --> 0:55:40.200
<v Speaker 3>million to go to a phase three development, and then

0:55:40.239 --> 0:55:41.759
<v Speaker 3>you're not going to be able to raise it. You're

0:55:41.800 --> 0:55:43.439
<v Speaker 3>not going to be you're not going to be able

0:55:43.480 --> 0:55:45.600
<v Speaker 3>to do an I p O or you're not going

0:55:45.640 --> 0:55:47.279
<v Speaker 3>to be able to raise the money at the at

0:55:47.320 --> 0:55:52.160
<v Speaker 3>the valuation that you want without giving away the company.

0:55:52.800 --> 0:55:54.640
<v Speaker 3>Your options are limited, right, you need to do M

0:55:54.680 --> 0:55:59.200
<v Speaker 3>and A transactions, So so the numbers are not necessarily

0:55:59.239 --> 0:56:04.000
<v Speaker 3>going down that asked. But I think there's a more

0:56:04.040 --> 0:56:09.719
<v Speaker 3>peer to peer merger of equals then you would otherwise

0:56:09.760 --> 0:56:15.480
<v Speaker 3>see just putting together cash and rationalizing the pipeline of

0:56:15.520 --> 0:56:18.040
<v Speaker 3>two struggling companies. That kind of stuff is happening a

0:56:18.040 --> 0:56:22.080
<v Speaker 3>lot because you can't find a buyer who's gonna take

0:56:22.120 --> 0:56:24.000
<v Speaker 3>the risk on the or you don't want to take

0:56:24.040 --> 0:56:27.480
<v Speaker 3>the risk on the FTC front. And these are not

0:56:27.520 --> 0:56:30.760
<v Speaker 3>necessarily good things. I mean, some of these assets would

0:56:30.760 --> 0:56:33.759
<v Speaker 3>be far better off in the hands of somebody with

0:56:33.800 --> 0:56:39.120
<v Speaker 3>deeper pockets and the expertise. So there's some anecdotal evidence,

0:56:39.160 --> 0:56:41.359
<v Speaker 3>but I agree with Mark that there's still plenty of

0:56:41.360 --> 0:56:45.520
<v Speaker 3>transactions out there and that overall numbers haven't necessarily dipped

0:56:45.719 --> 0:56:46.839
<v Speaker 3>in any meaningful way.

0:56:50.120 --> 0:56:52.800
<v Speaker 2>Well, this has been really really interesting. I think before

0:56:52.840 --> 0:56:54.680
<v Speaker 2>I close up, I just want to give either of

0:56:54.719 --> 0:56:57.080
<v Speaker 2>you an opportunity if you had any other thoughts that

0:56:57.160 --> 0:57:00.760
<v Speaker 2>you weren't able to express any last words, Mark.

0:57:00.840 --> 0:57:03.319
<v Speaker 4>Well, I don't know how profound this is, but I'll

0:57:03.360 --> 0:57:07.479
<v Speaker 4>just point out it doesn't that you know, armand talked

0:57:07.480 --> 0:57:14.080
<v Speaker 4>about Bristol Celgene and the old school remedy of divesting

0:57:14.160 --> 0:57:18.720
<v Speaker 4>o Tesla, which I guess it's irony, but you know

0:57:19.000 --> 0:57:23.960
<v Speaker 4>Amgen bought that right and they and that really, again

0:57:24.000 --> 0:57:28.160
<v Speaker 4>putting my equity analyst hat on, that was an incredibly

0:57:29.320 --> 0:57:33.480
<v Speaker 4>strategically positive move for Amgen because you know, that was

0:57:33.520 --> 0:57:38.040
<v Speaker 4>a marketed product, continues to do reasonably well and really

0:57:38.160 --> 0:57:43.120
<v Speaker 4>kind of served as a patch for Amgen's revenue over

0:57:43.160 --> 0:57:46.440
<v Speaker 4>the past few years. So, you know, I don't know

0:57:46.680 --> 0:57:50.120
<v Speaker 4>what I conclude from that other than the old way

0:57:50.280 --> 0:57:57.440
<v Speaker 4>of having even potentially very large deals go through with

0:57:57.520 --> 0:58:01.960
<v Speaker 4>certain remedies seem to work.

0:58:03.240 --> 0:58:07.800
<v Speaker 3>A mine. Yeah, look, they I'm sure we can do

0:58:07.880 --> 0:58:10.400
<v Speaker 3>a retrospective on a lot of deals and reach very

0:58:10.440 --> 0:58:17.240
<v Speaker 3>similar conclusions. Overall, nobody at the FDC during the Joe

0:58:17.280 --> 0:58:22.200
<v Speaker 3>Simon's years I have any reason to be embarrassed by

0:58:22.200 --> 0:58:26.480
<v Speaker 3>anything they've done. They did a fantastic job and they

0:58:26.520 --> 0:58:30.880
<v Speaker 3>probably cleared the right deals and investigated the right ones,

0:58:31.400 --> 0:58:33.960
<v Speaker 3>so that that was all good. And yeah, there's some

0:58:34.040 --> 0:58:37.000
<v Speaker 3>wisdom and doing things the way they've been done for

0:58:37.000 --> 0:58:40.000
<v Speaker 3>for a long time, there's a there were a lot

0:58:40.000 --> 0:58:43.320
<v Speaker 3>of benefits and and I'm not suggesting that the current

0:58:43.440 --> 0:58:46.840
<v Speaker 3>FDC is necessarily doing something completely different. They're not right.

0:58:46.880 --> 0:58:49.640
<v Speaker 3>I mean, we went through a lot of bass transactions

0:58:50.120 --> 0:58:53.400
<v Speaker 3>where a lot for for many transactions is business as

0:58:53.480 --> 0:59:00.800
<v Speaker 3>usual and and for the benefit of patients and and

0:59:00.920 --> 0:59:03.360
<v Speaker 3>all of us, let's hope it continues that way.

0:59:04.600 --> 0:59:06.840
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I guess the moral of that story is that

0:59:06.920 --> 0:59:08.480
<v Speaker 2>if it's not broken, don't fix it.

0:59:09.160 --> 0:59:09.360
<v Speaker 3>Right.

0:59:11.320 --> 0:59:13.960
<v Speaker 2>Well, you guys were really great and it was so interesting,

0:59:14.000 --> 0:59:16.560
<v Speaker 2>so thank you so much for joining me on this.

0:59:16.560 --> 0:59:20.080
<v Speaker 2>This has been a lot of fun because it carried

0:59:20.120 --> 0:59:23.160
<v Speaker 2>out further out of antitrust and out of sort of

0:59:23.200 --> 0:59:25.800
<v Speaker 2>just the legal arena into the business area and that

0:59:25.960 --> 0:59:29.880
<v Speaker 2>was great. So that's it for us. Thank you everyone

0:59:29.920 --> 0:59:33.200
<v Speaker 2>for listening to the Votes and Verdicts podcast of Bloomberg Intelligence.

0:59:33.920 --> 0:59:35.960
<v Speaker 2>Please feel free to reach out to Mark or to

0:59:36.040 --> 0:59:38.120
<v Speaker 2>me on the Bloomberg terminal if you'd like with any

0:59:38.200 --> 0:59:57.440
<v Speaker 2>questions or any comments. And everybody have a great day.