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Speaker 1: Ron An Aian.

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Speaker 2: It can't be about how cheap. It has to be

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Speaker 2: about how right, because ultimately, if you're looking to do

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Speaker 2: it cheap, you're not going to be successful at some

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Speaker 2: point where it's going to come up and bite you. No,

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Speaker 2: the Car Doctor.

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Speaker 3: So it's happening between twenty five and thirty five, and

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Speaker 3: he says, but there are no codes. There's nothing we

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Speaker 3: can do for you at this time.

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Speaker 2: Boy, there's so much well I'm driving, there's so much

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Speaker 2: wrong with this conversation. How could they not drive twenty

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Speaker 2: five to thirty five miles an hour? Let's just talk

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Speaker 2: about that. What's the speed limit around the dealership?

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Speaker 1: Fifty Welcome to the radio home of ron Anian, the

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Speaker 1: Car Doctor. Since nineteen ninety one, this is where car

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Speaker 1: owners the world overturned to for their definitive opinion on

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Speaker 1: automotive repair. If your mechanics giving you a busy signal,

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Speaker 1: pick up the phone and call in. The garage doors

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Speaker 1: are open.

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Speaker 2: But I am here to take your calls at eight

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Speaker 2: five five five six ninety nine.

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Speaker 3: Hundred and now.

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Speaker 1: Running.

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Speaker 2: We have a wild hour for you this week. A

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Speaker 2: little bit of a change from our normal format. We're

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Speaker 2: not taking calls. This hour, we have with us the

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Speaker 2: often imitated, never duplicated, one and only, no boloone, not

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Speaker 2: a phony. How is that for a great intro? Mark Mills.

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Speaker 2: Mark is back with us this hour, and uh, we're

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Speaker 2: we're going to talk EVS and the energy future and

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Speaker 2: might even talk about his book. We're definitely going to

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Speaker 2: talk about his book, The Cloud Revolution, which I'm still

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Speaker 2: working my way through. I've got a couple of questions

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Speaker 2: and comments about that, But without any further ado, mister Mills,

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Speaker 2: welcome backs are always.

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Speaker 3: A pleasure, great to be back, Thanks for having me,

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Speaker 3: always always a lot of fun.

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Speaker 2: No bolone, no boloney, it's you know, it's it's often imitated,

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Speaker 2: never duplicated, and not a phony, no baloney, the one

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Speaker 2: and only.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 2: Let's see you get a better billing from that from

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Speaker 2: anybody else.

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Speaker 3: Right, Stoscile doesn't get better.

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Speaker 2: Stossel doesn't introduce you like that, right, not see? So

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Speaker 2: what's uh? You know, there's a lot of things I

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Speaker 2: want to talk to you about this hour, but I've

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Speaker 2: got a couple of real simple questions. You know, a

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Speaker 2: year ago we started talking you and I and looking

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Speaker 2: forward to the ev future and what it might become

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Speaker 2: and what it is. You know, if you look back

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Speaker 2: twelve months prior to this, does your expectations of what

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Speaker 2: the EV future does it match that? Are you still

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Speaker 2: in that same mode so to speak? Do you see

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Speaker 2: the EV future better, worse, coming faster, coming later? What

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Speaker 2: are your thoughts?

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Speaker 3: Well, there is some there are some things that are worse.

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Speaker 3: What's worse as the enthusiasm of governments both federal and

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Speaker 3: state are here and overseas to ban internal combustion engines

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Speaker 3: in the misguided belief that electric vehicles are inherently better

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Speaker 3: cheaper than conventional vehicles. I mean, it's got worse. It's

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Speaker 3: gotten worse. There's been real progress, incremental but real progress

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Speaker 3: in battery technology. They're all there will be. It will

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Speaker 3: be a lot more yet. It's exciting. But I anticipated

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Speaker 3: that and brought about it earlier. But that's good. I mean,

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Speaker 3: that's it's not game changing by definition of what matters

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Speaker 3: and game changing. I guess what's better also is is

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Speaker 3: you know, since you and I talked first talked about

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Speaker 3: this a year ago, A number of the surprising outlets

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Speaker 3: Washington Post, New York Times, not to be mean, but

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Speaker 3: surprising because they've undertaken serious investigative reporting on sourcing of

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Speaker 3: minerals to make batteries in Indonesia, Congo, other places in Africa,

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Speaker 3: South America, Chile, looking at the real environmental impacts. Don't

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Speaker 3: but I don't. I don't mean carbon dioxide. I'm talking

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Speaker 3: about in pluting water, hurting people, you know, destroying ecosystems.

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Speaker 3: They're looking at those things now, and that's that's a breakthrough.

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Speaker 3: They were pretty much ignoring those shoes for a long time.

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Speaker 3: And that's progress because you know, in the real world

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Speaker 3: we live in. It's it's unimagined to to say, but

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Speaker 3: it requires saying. There's no free lunch. You have to

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Speaker 3: look right, balance the things, and they're doing it. Let's

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Speaker 3: let's progress. So the overall report card of the last

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Speaker 3: year mixed bag. But with the EPA's new tailpipe emission

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Speaker 3: rule they're planning implement, this is real bad for American

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Speaker 3: consumers and car owners and drivers if that actually goes

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Speaker 3: into place.

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Speaker 2: And what is the tailpipe rule.

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Speaker 3: They're going to They're going to ratchet down the tail

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Speaker 3: because they have in principle the authority to do this.

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Speaker 3: They ratchet down the emissions of carbon dioxide specifically, which

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Speaker 3: they're legally allowed to do by a virtue of how

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Speaker 3: these issues have played out to such an extent that

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Speaker 3: functionally automakers by twenty thirty two will be able to

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Speaker 3: manufacture evs almost closely. They'll be able to make maybe

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Speaker 3: a quarter or a third of the cars that they

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Speaker 3: manufacture with internal combustion engines, but the majority, if not all,

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Speaker 3: will have to be evs, and within a decade if

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Speaker 3: that rule goes in place, and frankly, that's a disaster

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Speaker 3: for consumers, and it's also quite bad for the environment.

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Speaker 2: But wait a minute, if if we can't make and

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Speaker 2: tell me, stop me where I'm wrong, If if I've

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Speaker 2: been following what's going on and reading the material that

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Speaker 2: you and others have provided, If if I understand this correctly,

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Speaker 2: we can't provide enough material to make enough batteries for

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Speaker 2: enough evs for everybody.

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Speaker 3: We Well it right?

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Speaker 2: So so are we going to be walking? Should I

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Speaker 2: buy more sneakers? Is that what they're really trying to

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Speaker 2: tell us?

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Speaker 3: Well, everything takes time, you know, in the real in

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Speaker 3: the real world again, things don't happen overnight. It's not

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Speaker 3: like in the world of atoms. Building things and mining

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Speaker 3: stuff and versus bits, you know, sitting social media apps

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Speaker 3: to people. The atoms world moves more slowly, so I

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Speaker 3: would say that the capacity to provide the minerals needed

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Speaker 3: to make batteries will be exhausted one to two years

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Speaker 3: from now. It's not We're not there. Maybe it could

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Speaker 3: be three years, depends, but we're the reasonable short term

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Speaker 3: site of the capacity to mine the material to make

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Speaker 3: the quantity of batteries imagined that are needed in all

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Speaker 3: these mandates. So we're not there. It's not that there aren't.

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Speaker 3: Let's be clear, maybe back up a step. But a

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Speaker 3: lot of people don't know still, is that an electric

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Speaker 3: car's battery is a very complicated, heavy beast. It's about

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Speaker 3: a half a ton, one thousand pounds electro chemical engine.

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Speaker 3: Unlike an internal combustion engine, which is a thermal mechanical engine.

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Speaker 3: Batteries are electro chemical engines. The distinction is important only

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Speaker 3: in this sense that batteries weigh a lot more inter

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Speaker 3: combustion engines. An engine in the car a few hundred pounds,

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Speaker 3: right for big one small ones a couple hundred pounds.

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Speaker 3: Battery weighs a thousand pounds and of course the electric

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Speaker 3: motors weigh a lot too, But the batteries is a

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Speaker 3: big kahuna, and you have to mind somewhere close to

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Speaker 3: half a million pounds of the Earth to produce one battery.

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Speaker 3: So that's you know, the copper, it's not just lithium.

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Speaker 3: You need lifium of course, and graphite, and some batteries

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Speaker 3: have cobalt, some don't, most have nickel and the aluminum.

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Speaker 3: All these metals have to be mined somewhere. That process

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Speaker 3: has environment impacts, as I mentioned. But what's more important,

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Speaker 3: just from the viewpoint of can we provide enough minerals,

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Speaker 3: is are we mining enough? And we know the answer

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Speaker 3: to that question, We're not mining enough. This is an

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Speaker 3: extraordinarily shallowly disingenuous trope running around now in the evy

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Speaker 3: enthusiast community that people like me are saying we don't

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Speaker 3: have enough minerals on Earth, and there's plenty of minerals

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Speaker 3: on the planet to make enough batteries. This is really

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Speaker 3: an infantile observation. Yes there are. The Earth has functionally

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Speaker 3: an infinite supply of all the metals we can want,

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Speaker 3: whether it's gold or nickel or iron ore. The trick

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Speaker 3: is finding it and then opening minds up in an

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Speaker 3: expeditious way, in a way we can tolerate in time

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Speaker 3: to produce the quantities we need. So the issue has

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Speaker 3: never been are there enough minerals in fact on our planet.

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Speaker 3: It's whether or not there's enough mind and whether or

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Speaker 3: not the world's mining industry is expanding mining fast enough

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Speaker 3: to meet the demands that will be imposed on their

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Speaker 3: supplies from the mandates to build more evs. So even

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Speaker 3: the most basic metal, copper, which is arguably the oldest

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Speaker 3: mind metal and humanity predates written history, copper alone, the

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Speaker 3: capacity to supply copper alone will be exceeded in about

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Speaker 3: two years. And if we continue with these mandates and

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Speaker 3: try to supply all the mattery factories that are being subsidized,

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Speaker 3: will exceed the world capacity of mine and produce copper

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Speaker 3: by a factor of two to three. So you know,

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Speaker 3: there's another way of saying it won't happen. I mean,

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Speaker 3: we're not gonna if you exceed the If you see

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Speaker 3: the many seeds supply, two things happen. Prices go up, and.

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Speaker 2: There's a there's a long line. There's a long line

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Speaker 2: at the EV store.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, And and they get more expensive, and and

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Speaker 3: everything else uses copper gets more expensive, from houses to

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Speaker 3: buildings to you know, appliances because copper, you know, copper,

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Speaker 3: for the sake of discussion, is five percent of the

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Speaker 3: cost at appliance. But you increased the cost of copper

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Speaker 3: by fivefold, Suddenly it becomes an inflationary impact on the

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Speaker 3: whole appliance. And that's the kind of trajectory that we're

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Speaker 3: being put on by these mandates. That's the part that

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Speaker 3: defends me out. I like the acceleration of electric cars.

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Speaker 3: I like most electric cars. Something there's a lot of

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Speaker 3: a bunch of them. I don't like very much in

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Speaker 3: terms of design, but personal not engineering obs very aesthetic.

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Speaker 3: I think kessels are nice cars. He's, in fact, Eli

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Speaker 3: Musk has done something nobody's ever done in one hundred years.

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Speaker 3: He's he's competed with successfully established automakers, and you can't

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Speaker 3: explain away his success on the basis of a climate

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Speaker 3: change or subsidies. It's it's a good car. I like

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Speaker 3: other EV's more personally driven them, but it's a good car.

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Speaker 3: And he actually, it's a matter of fact, until very recently,

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Speaker 3: his engineers produced the best battery design of any automaker

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Speaker 3: until very recently, good engineering terrific. You know, hats off,

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Speaker 3: But can everybody drive an EV in the next decade?

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Speaker 3: This is beyond beyond silly. In fact, I have a

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Speaker 3: new report coming out and I'm calling it the Obvious,

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Speaker 3: stealing from the song It's the Impossible Dream.

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Speaker 2: Listen, I'm gonna go back to a recent paper you wrote.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna pull over and take a pause. But when

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Speaker 2: we come back, I want you to react to this.

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Speaker 2: This this, this statement you made in a recent paper

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Speaker 2: Electric Vehicle Illusions. You wrote, the rush to subsidize and

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Speaker 2: mandate evs is animated by a fatal conceit, the assumption

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Speaker 2: that they will radically reduce CO two emissions. All right,

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Speaker 2: when we come back, let's pull over, take a pause.

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Speaker 2: We're here with Mark Mills. I'm running Eni and the

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Speaker 2: car doctor. We'll both return right after this. Good time.

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Speaker 2: Write it on the wall so you don't forget to

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Speaker 2: call for car advice.

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Speaker 3: Done right?

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Speaker 2: Eight five five five six zero nine nine zero zero.

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Speaker 3: Now back to Rod.

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Speaker 2: So we're here with Mark Mills. Mark, when we when

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Speaker 2: we pulled away to take that pause, You recently wrote

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Speaker 2: an article as you're always writing for it is it?

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Speaker 2: It's City hyphen Journal dot org.

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Speaker 3: I believe right right, that's the magazine for the Manhattan Institute. Great,

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Speaker 3: great magazine. We are reading it, they should all right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot of a lot of interesting things

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Speaker 2: in there. And and in this recent article that you wrote,

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Speaker 2: the rush to subsidize in mandate evs is animated by

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Speaker 2: a fatal conceit the assumption that they will radically reduce

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Speaker 2: CO two emissions.

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Speaker 3: What are you saying there, Yeah, it's a pretty I mean,

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Speaker 3: it's a pretty amazing thing when you think about it, because,

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Speaker 3: as you know, the entire motivation for these mandates, not

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Speaker 3: you know, banning ternal combustion engines, subsidizing evs is predicated

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Speaker 3: on that they will radically reduce combon dioxide emissions. And

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Speaker 3: it is true that you're not burning hydrocarbons, you're not

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Speaker 3: burning gasoline to drive an ev it has no tailpipe.

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Speaker 3: This is a to use the technical term, a giant,

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Speaker 3: no doubt, this is not this is beyond obvious. But

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Speaker 3: carbon dioxide emissions occur upstream, that is, in the processes

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Speaker 3: to make the battery. This is this is where we

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Speaker 3: have a massive domain of no none knowns, remember that

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Speaker 3: great great line underknowns, no none known. We know for

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Speaker 3: a fact it takes hundreds of thousands of pounds of

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Speaker 3: mining and to produce a one battery. We know that

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Speaker 3: that mining is done. More than half of it is

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Speaker 3: diesel fuel. The other half of the energy used is

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Speaker 3: natural gas and coal. We know that that happens. What

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Speaker 3: we don't know, this is the unknown part, is just

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Speaker 3: how much of the energy use goes on with a

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Speaker 3: specific battery at a specific point in time in a

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Speaker 3: specific part of the world. Because it's a huge, opaque,

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Speaker 3: sort of labyrinthine industry, the global mining and refining industry.

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Speaker 3: So let's we put some numbers on it. Numbers are hard,

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Speaker 3: you know, easier to read than talk about them. But

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Speaker 3: just lithium batteries weigh a lot way have ton, but

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Speaker 3: there's only all give or take, you know, depends on

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Speaker 3: the battery type. But say twenty or thirty pounds of

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Speaker 3: lithium actually in the battery, and there's something like one

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Speaker 3: hundred to two hundred pounds of copper in the battery,

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Speaker 3: so it doesn't sound like very much except to get

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Speaker 3: thirty pounds of lithium you have to mind something like

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Speaker 3: twenty to thirty thousand pounds of lithium brine or a

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Speaker 3: lithium rock to get that, you know, one to two

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Speaker 3: hundred pounds of copper. You need to mine sort of

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Speaker 3: ten to twenty thousand pounds of rock to get that

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Speaker 3: copper for one battery. And you think about that, it's

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Speaker 3: not complicated. That means you're using big equipment burning hydrocarbons,

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Speaker 3: mostly diesel fuel, meaning carbon dioxide to make the minnerals

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Speaker 3: to make the battery. So you would want to know

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Speaker 3: what the carbon dioxide emissions were to make the battery

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Speaker 3: in the first place, because they in effect create a debt,

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Speaker 3: and a carbon debt, you like, for the vehicle. It

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Speaker 3: has to pay it down because you're not burning gasolene beyond. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: we do know this is the known part that it's

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Speaker 3: a lot. What we don't know is whether it's enough

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Speaker 3: to wipe out most or all of the emissions you

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Speaker 3: save burning diesel fuel or gasoline. Right, And this is

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Speaker 3: not me saying it because I'm anti ev I like

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Speaker 3: EVS as that before it impressive vehicles is a great

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Speaker 3: option for a lot of a lot of utility options.

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Speaker 3: War EVS will be millions, tens of millions more evs

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Speaker 3: bought without subsidies. But the fact is the upstream emissions

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Speaker 3: for making evs is far greater than upstream emissions for

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Speaker 3: making a conventional car. Conventional cars are eighty percent of

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Speaker 3: the weight of a conventional car is iron and steel

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Speaker 3: eighty of its weight. Iron and steel are extremely abundant

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Speaker 3: the ore grades. This is a cheap, key fact. The

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Speaker 3: quantity of iron in the ore you dig up half

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Speaker 3: of the ores iron. The quantity of copper in ore

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Speaker 3: you dig up to make you know, electric vehicle half

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Speaker 3: to one percent. You can do the math here. You're

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Speaker 3: going to dig up a lot more rock to make

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Speaker 3: the copy you need to make electric vehicle than the

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Speaker 3: iron you have to dig up to make a steel

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Speaker 3: conventional engine. So these these things result in Carbonda set emissions.

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Speaker 3: There's all kinds of silly words for this, you know,

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Speaker 3: like scope two, scope three emissions. Basically they're talking about

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Speaker 3: elsewhere emissions. This is not about the emissions from charging

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Speaker 3: the battery, be clear, those occur too, But the emissions

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Speaker 3: from making the battery are so great and the variables

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Speaker 3: are so great that we know the offset somewhere between

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Speaker 3: a third to two thirds of all the emissions you say,

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Speaker 3: from not burning hydrogasoline in the first place. And then

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Speaker 3: you have to charge the battery. And that's in the

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Speaker 3: world we live in, not the world we imagine, but live.

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Speaker 3: And that means wherever you happen to live, the time

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Speaker 3: of day you charge the battery determines how much carbon

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Speaker 3: diox that you emit to refuel your electric car. Now,

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Speaker 3: with a conventional car, it doesn't matter where you fuel it,

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Speaker 3: when you fuel it, how you drive it. When you

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Speaker 3: drive it, the carbon dioxide emission emitted per gallon of

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Speaker 3: gasoline consumed is essentially the same everywhere all the time.

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Speaker 3: You probably have some listeners that are really smart that know, yes,

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Speaker 3: altitude and temperature slightly change the efficiency of a combustion

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Speaker 3: engine and slightly therefore alter carbon DIOXI emissions. But it's

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Speaker 3: a trivial change. With electric vehicles. If you happen to

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Speaker 3: charge it at night a dozen or two dozen states,

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Speaker 3: you're going to be fielding with coal. If you happen

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Speaker 3: to charge it in China, where half of the world

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Speaker 3: electric vehicles are, you're charging that electric vehicle with coal,

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Speaker 3: for sure, not maybe, but for sure. And if you

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Speaker 3: happen to charge it Norway where they love EVS. That

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Speaker 3: was in Oswa in January, A great time to be there.

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Speaker 3: You're charging with a hydro dam and good on you,

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Speaker 3: you know. But if you buy a tesla before you

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Speaker 3: even charge it the first time, you've caused something on

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Speaker 3: the order of twenty to thirty tons of CO two

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Speaker 3: to be omitted somewhere else on Earth to make that tesla.

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Speaker 3: Wo all the minerals and materials needed.

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Speaker 1: Wow.

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Speaker 2: Hey, Mark, take a pause. We're going to take a

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Speaker 2: pause here when we come back. In your book you

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Speaker 2: talk about well, talk about Wales and whale oil, chapter ten,

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Speaker 2: page one fourteen. I want to talk about that a

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Speaker 2: little bit when we return, and let's dig into that

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Speaker 2: a little bit and see how that affects EVS, because

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Speaker 2: I think there's a connection there. I'm running ending of

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Speaker 2: the Car Doctor. I'm here with Mark Mills. We'll both

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Speaker 2: return right after this. Don't go away right Welcome back,

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Speaker 2: Running the Car Doctor here with Mark Mills. Noted author

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Speaker 2: noted everything he from the physicist, Well to me, you're

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Speaker 2: still to me, you're still a physicist for the Manhattan Institute.

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Speaker 2: Mark here, someday we're gonna sit down, have a cup

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Speaker 2: of coffee. We're talking time travel. So but in your book,

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Speaker 2: The Cloud Revolution.

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Speaker 3: My favorite subject after robots.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well that you know. I I'm telling you, I

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Speaker 2: you know, I keep telling you Star Trek is going

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Speaker 2: to happen twenty sixty three. I got to stick around

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Speaker 2: another forty years. The Cloud Revolution available on Amazon. By

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Speaker 2: the way, Chapter ten, page one fourteen. You talk about materials,

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Speaker 2: the next energy or the energy nexus, right, And there's

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Speaker 2: a paragraph here that really got me. It talks about,

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Speaker 2: as a student of wildlife conservation knows, mankind hunted whales

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Speaker 2: almost to extinction in the pursuit of what was then

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Speaker 2: the best known material for illumination, you know, whale oil

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Speaker 2: to light lamps. Whale oil was prosed over other animals

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Speaker 2: and vegetable fats that have been used for lamps and

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Speaker 2: candles in the past, but demand for whale oil collapsed

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Speaker 2: after the eighteen forty six invention of kerosine is synthetic

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Speaker 2: oil derived from coal. And I read that and I

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Speaker 2: started thinking to myself, Gee, it's good thing that kerosene

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Speaker 2: worked out, because otherwise we would have had to revert

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Speaker 2: back to whale, oil hunting or whale you know, and

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Speaker 2: could we And I start thinking about the evs that

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Speaker 2: were being told that we're going to be driving in

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Speaker 2: ten years or less, and you know, is that indicative too?

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Speaker 2: You know, there was a material problem, then there's a

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Speaker 2: material problem. Now is there a point of no return

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Speaker 2: where we're so deep into evs we box ourselves into

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Speaker 2: a corner?

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Speaker 3: Well, yes and no. I mean I think the corner

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Speaker 3: that we boxed in will be for politicians and policy makers,

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Speaker 3: because I think there will be a we'll call it

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Speaker 3: a vigorous public reaction to the destruction done to convenience

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Speaker 3: and costs of personal mobility, the favor and phrase for

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Speaker 3: driving cars. So I think it's going to be an

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Speaker 3: epic collision between reality of what people want and what

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Speaker 3: can be built and what politicians policymakers are pushing. But

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Speaker 3: the cold story is fascinating because, as you know, a

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Speaker 3: chapter of my book, and thank you for reading it,

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Speaker 3: I appreciate that, it's you know, the information revolution. The

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Speaker 3: cloud is the thread through the book. But it's about

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Speaker 3: more than that. It's about materials and the materials and

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Speaker 3: energy NEXIT about you know, machines and robots and manufacturing

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Speaker 3: and healthcare and education, because these things all interrelate. And

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Speaker 3: the information revolution in a sense that began in eighteen

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Speaker 3: forty six was when the Canadian chemist and physician figured

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Speaker 3: out how to convert coal into a liquid fuel kerosene.

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Speaker 3: He came up with a process for that, and that

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Speaker 3: predates the first oil well by about I take forty years,

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Speaker 3: and it predates Spindletop, which was the kickoff in Texas

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Speaker 3: of the sort of the giant oil revolution of the

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Speaker 3: just in the right around nineteen hundred by sixty years.

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Speaker 3: So you know, the oil industry often like say they

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Speaker 3: saved the whale. No, no, no, they didn't. The coal

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Speaker 3: industry saved the whaley of a Canadian chemist because whale

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Speaker 3: oil consumption totally collapsed. If you see a graph of

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Speaker 3: the entire nineteenth century consumption of whale oil for purpose

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Speaker 3: of elimination, it totally collapsed. After he invented kerosene. His

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Speaker 3: process was really lousy compared to what we do today.

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Speaker 3: But here's the key to your point. In the conservation

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Speaker 3: of materials. Our footprint on the planet is determined by

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Speaker 3: materials and land we use. By that, I mean an

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Speaker 3: environmental footprint totally determined by the quantity materials we need

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Speaker 3: to do something and the quantity of land we need

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Speaker 3: to do something. And you know, harvesting whales pretty grotesque,

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Speaker 3: pretty grow teste thing to do it for elimination, But

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Speaker 3: the whale oil was magical, but it was more than

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Speaker 3: three hundred percent reduction and the quantity of materials you

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Speaker 3: needed to harvest coal versus whales to get the same

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Speaker 3: amount of illumination. And of course it's far easier to

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Speaker 3: harvest a third as much coal as a three times

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Speaker 3: more whale. So the cost of illumination utterly collapsed, right,

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Speaker 3: a spectacular change in quality of life to have illumination available,

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Speaker 3: civilization of far lower cost. Now, electric cars are essentially

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Speaker 3: a reversion. It's an increase to your point, not a

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Speaker 3: decrease in the consumption of land and material to achieve

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Speaker 3: the same thing. The same mild driven electric car and

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Speaker 3: a gasoline powered car are exactly the same from all

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Speaker 3: troll intents and purposes, so just different models of propulsion.

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Speaker 3: It's really not much different than going from you know,

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Speaker 3: a gasoline to a diesel engine with a different fuel.

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Speaker 3: So we're going to use electric chemistry and we're going

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Speaker 3: to use batteries aliciated chemicals. But it's just a different

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Speaker 3: way propelling the same thing. Fill a car. That was

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Speaker 3: a revolution. It's a big deal. But the fuel to

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Speaker 3: get the car to go increases our material footpitting on

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Speaker 3: the planet by one thousand percent over the fuel to

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Speaker 3: get a conventional car to go, So we have one

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Speaker 3: thousand percent increase per mild driven to go e these

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Speaker 3: versus stay with what we got. How can any You

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Speaker 3: don't have to know anything about any any specific electro

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Speaker 3: chemistry or environmental issues to know that that can't be good.

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Speaker 3: That's not a movement in the right direction. Now, if

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Speaker 3: only a few percent of cars do that, okay, whatever,

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Speaker 3: not a big deal, but make a significant share of

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Speaker 3: cars increase their footprint on the planet in terms of

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Speaker 3: materials requirements by one thousand percent. This is consequential in

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Speaker 3: all kinds of ways, but certainly in environmental ways and

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Speaker 3: certainly in social ways. Because of where we do the mining.

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00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 3: We don't do it in America. We import the mind

434
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 3: materials and the refined materials from the countries, and some

435
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 3: in Canada and Australia of course my homeland Canada, but

436
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 3: most of it comes from Africa and China and South America,

437
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,440
Speaker 3: Central America. You know, so we export the challenges in

438
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 3: the pollution to other countries. We export the social challenges,

439
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 3: we export the pollution, we export the land use, we

440
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:45,240
Speaker 3: export the incredible increase in ecosystem destruction. We need copper,

441
00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:49,439
Speaker 3: Copper is essential for civilization, but we don't need to

442
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 3: make cars electric and increase our copper consumption by three

443
00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 3: hundred percent. That's you know, you know, for me, it's

444
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 3: not only silly, it's borderline, uh to say it's a

445
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:05,080
Speaker 3: moral it's in a moral direction, and it's yes, yes,

446
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 3: people claim that it's you know, cutting CO two missions.

447
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:12,879
Speaker 3: That claim is not supported in any significant way. But

448
00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 3: the data, yeah, it might cut it a little bit,

449
00:25:14,840 --> 00:25:17,600
Speaker 3: depending where you live, when you drive the car. It

450
00:25:17,680 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 3: might increase COO two missions depending on where you live

451
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 3: and you drive, who you drive your car. Who's hardly

452
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 3: a good bargain in terms of CO two. It's a

453
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:29,159
Speaker 3: terrible bargain in terms of environmental impacts, and it's a

454
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:32,919
Speaker 3: terrible bargain in geopolitical terms because we don't mind, we

455
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 3: don't increase the mining of copper in America. We mind

456
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 3: copper here, we haven't increased mining of copper. It's in

457
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 3: probably fifty or sixty years in any significant way in America.

458
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 3: All the net new copper comes from elsewhere. So material dependence,

459
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:49,640
Speaker 3: geopolitical dependencies, export challenges, import you know, for exporting dollars,

460
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 3: exporting problems. It's you know, all of this earns one

461
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 3: the label of being you know, I guess a critic

462
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 3: of EVS. I guess you have to say, I am,

463
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 3: But I'm not a critic of EV's per se. I'm

464
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:07,000
Speaker 3: a critic of a monumoniacal pursuit of everybody being forced

465
00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 3: to drive an EV. That's that's the essence of where we.

466
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:11,959
Speaker 2: Welcome and I agree with that one hundred percent. I

467
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 2: like you. I appreciate EVS. I appreciate what Tesla's done.

468
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 2: I appreciate the engineering that's gone in it. But going

469
00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:20,760
Speaker 2: along saying, hey, everything needs to be an EV because

470
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,919
Speaker 2: this is going to save the planet. You know, the

471
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:27,720
Speaker 2: emperor has no clothes, brother, you know, it just it

472
00:26:27,800 --> 00:26:29,600
Speaker 2: just doesn't make any sense. Hey, let's pull over, take

473
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 2: a pause. When we come back, I want to talk

474
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 2: a little bit about Well, I'm going to tell you

475
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,880
Speaker 2: my approach to how I would electrify the So I'm

476
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 2: gonna I want you to be the critic of my

477
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:40,400
Speaker 2: thoughts and tell me, tell everybody what you think about

478
00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 2: what I'm thinking. So stay put, Mark, I'm running any

479
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 2: of the Card Doctor. We'll both return right after this.

480
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:58,359
Speaker 2: Don't go away. Welcome back Running the Card Doctor here

481
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 2: with Mark Mills and talking about EV's and all things

482
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 2: in between. The Cloud Revolution. Mark's book available on Amazon

483
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:08,359
Speaker 2: as well as his writings. Mark, here's my pitch. Here's

484
00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:13,360
Speaker 2: how we're going to solve all these problems. You ready? Okay? Well,

485
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 2: first of all, by the way, did I tell you

486
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:18,120
Speaker 2: I'm running for president. I've decided. I've decided to instigate

487
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,160
Speaker 2: a writing campaign. I'm ron An Any and I'm running

488
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:22,640
Speaker 2: for president. All your problem solved in twenty minutes or less,

489
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 2: re double your money back. I just have to figure

490
00:27:25,359 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 2: out how I'm going to do all that. But I'm

491
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:27,680
Speaker 2: thinking about it.

492
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 3: You could, you could, You could join a very long

493
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 3: line of people on both parties. Right.

494
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's you know, well, I figured i'd go to

495
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:34,879
Speaker 2: I'd go to Area fifty one, and after I make

496
00:27:34,920 --> 00:27:37,160
Speaker 2: the promise, I'll step in do the time travel thing

497
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 2: and go back to a pivotal moment. That's a whole

498
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,800
Speaker 2: nother story. That's a whole nother show. Why don't we

499
00:27:42,280 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 2: you know, why? Why why don't they? You know, EV's okay,

500
00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:48,880
Speaker 2: we want to we want to cut down on pollution.

501
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:52,200
Speaker 2: Why don't Why isn't the mandate more along the lines

502
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 2: of all delivery vehicles, all utility vehicles, taxis, buses, Uh,

503
00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:01,480
Speaker 2: you know, some emergency vehicles, policemen out on patrol, fire trucks,

504
00:28:01,520 --> 00:28:04,320
Speaker 2: that kind of thing. Maybe not fire trucks, but you know,

505
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:08,520
Speaker 2: mandate those to be electric, and then a certain percentage

506
00:28:09,119 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 2: of electric vehicles for the for the general welfare for

507
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 2: the consumers. Because they've taken on this broad scope in there,

508
00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 2: as you say, the push is going to come to

509
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 2: shove when they realize, listen, I want to be eighteen

510
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 2: again and lose forty pounds. Neither one of them has happened.

511
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:28,000
Speaker 2: You know, at what point does that become the reality.

512
00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 3: Well, let's just stipulate that I think mandates are a

513
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 3: bad idea a period, just just a bad idea. There

514
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 3: are very very few things we should mandate, very few things,

515
00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 3: very few things like we should ban so and they're just,

516
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 3: you know, two slides of the same coin. The problem

517
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 3: with mandating for those markets is that in those markets,

518
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 3: if the easy were superior in its performance to the

519
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 3: diesel or gaslan engine, you would have no difficulty convincing

520
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 3: the auto owners and operators and businesses buy those vehicles

521
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 3: to buy them. Right. People are people are rational. You

522
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 3: couldn't get out of their way, right, they would would

523
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 3: run to buy these things. They're not more convenient, they're

524
00:29:12,120 --> 00:29:16,440
Speaker 3: not less expensive, So they're more expensive and they're less convenient.

525
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 3: With very few exceptions or applications where the convenience is superior.

526
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:26,720
Speaker 3: It's certainly indoor electric vehicles. That's why trains in subways

527
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 3: are electric powered, because you can't combustion. It can close areas.

528
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,160
Speaker 3: But here let me make a counter suggestion, which which

529
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 3: is perhaps beyond obvious. If if governments and policymakers feel compelled,

530
00:29:39,920 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 3: they just can't stop themselves from spending our money to

531
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:47,719
Speaker 3: reduce oil consumption burning it, right, that's what that's the goal. Here.

532
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 3: Let's just stipulate we should all agree what they're really

533
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 3: trying to do is reduce commonducts emission of burning oil.

534
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 3: And when they learn, But if you want to do

535
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 3: it in the most cost effective way, what you want

536
00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:03,040
Speaker 3: to do is target the incentives to so called super users.

537
00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 3: About twenty percent of the driving population in the United

538
00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:10,240
Speaker 3: States use something like sixty or seventy percent of all gasoline.

539
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 3: Super users. These are it doesn't matter whether the personal

540
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 3: driving long commutes or they're they're the guys doing the

541
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 3: lawns that in all the wealthy neighborhoods, delivery vehicles. There

542
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 3: are many different they're the super users. Super users consume

543
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 3: most of the gasoline. You could easily imagine a subsidy

544
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 3: instead of targeting the wealthy giving him big checks to

545
00:30:31,600 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 3: buy Tesla's and Mercedes and Jaguar evs, to give a

546
00:30:36,800 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 3: subsidy to a super user and give the super reserve

547
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 3: a choice. If they buy a vehicle that reduces their

548
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 3: oil and gas consumption based on the odometer and the

549
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 3: vehicle they turn in, then they'll get a pro ratic credit.

550
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 3: The more the more they say, the bigger the check.

551
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 3: What most people will buy is a more efficient internal

552
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 3: combustion engines, but if they buy electric one whatever, it

553
00:30:57,320 --> 00:31:00,440
Speaker 3: doesn't matter that you would let the consumer then choose

554
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:04,680
Speaker 3: what would work for them is the most effective option,

555
00:31:05,360 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 3: practical option in terms of what the vehicle is to

556
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:11,480
Speaker 3: save money and cut fuel emissions. And that would be easy,

557
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:14,000
Speaker 3: be easy to implemat it'd be easy to target, be

558
00:31:14,040 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 3: easy to track, and it would not result. What's going

559
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 3: on now is a wealth chance between the middle class

560
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 3: who pay taxes and the wealthy who buy evs. It's

561
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 3: unequivocally the case. We notice in the data the two

562
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,400
Speaker 3: or three car families in the higher income brackets buy

563
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 3: ninety percent of evs, and the taxes to pay for

564
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 3: that come from not them, they come from middle class families.

565
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 3: That's where the most of the taxes come from. It's

566
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 3: just a rithmetical fact. So this is an easy solution

567
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 3: if we feel compelled to do that, that's the solution.

568
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 3: Not to order dump trucks or garbage trucks or ups

569
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 3: trucks to use electric drive, but the super users trade

570
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 3: in the vehicles for a more efficient engine. And if

571
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 3: the morefficient engine is an internal is not internal combustion whatever,

572
00:31:59,400 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 3: let's and choose right now for occasional use vehicles that

573
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:07,160
Speaker 3: you can actually charge overnight, which is inexpensive. Way, that's fine.

574
00:32:07,560 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 3: If you happen to be UH an EV owner and

575
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 3: you know you can put your vehicle in overnight at

576
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 3: your home. That's great, But fast chargers are very expensive.

577
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 3: Fast chargers are UH the damage batteries. Fast chargers are

578
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 3: using power when it's in the greatest demand, using peak

579
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 3: time during the days. So those uses are not great uses.

580
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 3: But the business or the consumer has a second or

581
00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 3: third car, an occasional use utility vehicle that can be

582
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 3: charged overnight, great, give but give them a check. And

583
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 3: for the person who needs the drive lawn thatsances needs

584
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:46,520
Speaker 3: a high hauling capacity, uh, let them trade in if

585
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 3: you like, for the the most efficient and maybe a

586
00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 3: hybrid that may just be a more efficient engine, just

587
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 3: just just you're the car guy.

588
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, well right, and I get that. Hey, Mark Tay,

589
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 2: what sit tight? Let me, let's pull over. We're gonna

590
00:32:58,240 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 2: we're gonna finish up here and then we're gonna close out.

591
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 2: We'll have up minutes when we get back on the

592
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:02,680
Speaker 2: other side of this, I'm running any of the Card

593
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 2: Doctor here with Mark Mills. We'll return right after this.

594
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 2: Welcome back, Running of the Card Doctor here with Mark Mills. Mark,

595
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 2: we got about two minutes. Brother let's talk about next month.

596
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 2: Let's start there. I got to get you to come back.

597
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:26,360
Speaker 2: I want to I want to hear more about EV's

598
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:28,600
Speaker 2: for everybody. Your next article coming out in the City

599
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 2: Journal for the Manhattan Institute, the magazine for the Manhattan Institute.

600
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:35,480
Speaker 2: So Tom will reach out to you and get you

601
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:38,680
Speaker 2: in the queue for next month sometime and we'll talk

602
00:33:38,760 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 2: more about that. I think your comments and points today

603
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 2: were spot on. The name of the book is the

604
00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,280
Speaker 2: Cloud Revolution for everybody out there that's gonna call later

605
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 2: or write later and ask. It's available on Amazon. I

606
00:33:52,120 --> 00:33:53,760
Speaker 2: will say this, I think you hit the nail on

607
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:56,360
Speaker 2: the head so many times about you know, the look back,

608
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 2: the look forward, and the analogy and the comparison to

609
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:03,200
Speaker 2: EV's spot spot on the money, my friend spot on

610
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:04,959
Speaker 2: the money.

611
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 3: Well, thank you man, thanks for the good words in

612
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,839
Speaker 3: the book. And there's a little bit for everybody in

613
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 3: the book, as you know, and we get maybe next

614
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 3: time we can talk about flying cars and autonomous vehicles

615
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 3: and robots, and of course the robots are the next revolution.

616
00:34:20,280 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 3: And it's no surprise that some automakers are also robot makers.

617
00:34:24,040 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 3: There's a reason for that, right, got it?

618
00:34:25,520 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 2: Well, and you know, next time let's talk about lithium

619
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 2: ion batteries. And now Toyota is talking about a solid

620
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:33,960
Speaker 2: state battery. But if you read the article, it says

621
00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 2: at some point, so it's not.

622
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 3: It's not.

623
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's that I want to be eighteen and lose

624
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:45,240
Speaker 2: forty pounds thing again, So always always a pleasure. Mark listen,

625
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:48,319
Speaker 2: you'll be well and we'll talk again real soon. Thanks

626
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 2: for taking the time with us today. I know the

627
00:34:49,760 --> 00:34:51,920
Speaker 2: listeners appreciate it, and Tom and I do too, so

628
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 2: you'll be well, my friend. I'm running Ady and the

629
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 2: car doctor and we're going to say goodbye now. And

630
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:00,399
Speaker 2: just remind you once and for all whether you driving

631
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 2: an e D or an internal combustion engine, whatever it is,

632
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 2: as always, good mechanics aren't expensive, they're priceless. See you