WEBVTT - Surveillance: Market Reality Check With Emanuel (Podcast) 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:13.800 Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Julie. 0:00:13.960 --> 0:00:17.560 We bring you insight from the best in economics, financial investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:27.480 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg Julian 0:00:27.480 --> 0:00:29.720 Emanuel joins us now of bt I G, the chief 0:00:29.720 --> 0:00:32.680 equity and derisist strategist. Julian, let's just start with the 0:00:32.680 --> 0:00:35.760 week we've just had and just pause for a moment. Monday, 0:00:36.120 --> 0:00:40.280 positive vaccine news, this cyclical rotation that everyone was looking for. 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:42.479 We all want to live in the back half of one. 0:00:42.479 --> 0:00:45.040 It sounds so good that we're confronted with the reality 0:00:45.640 --> 0:00:47.639 of the next few days. Can you walk me through 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:50.160 how you're navigating it. I've asked every single guest we've 0:00:50.159 --> 0:00:53.160 had in this spot that question every single day. What's 0:00:53.159 --> 0:00:57.920 your response. It's incredibly challenging, no doubt, And you know, 0:00:57.960 --> 0:01:01.000 I think, to an outside observer or someone who landed 0:01:01.040 --> 0:01:05.880 from Mars, the idea that you could have profoundly great 0:01:05.959 --> 0:01:09.200 news on Monday and have the top in the market 0:01:09.440 --> 0:01:11.760 that looks to us like you know, it could be 0:01:11.800 --> 0:01:16.039 the high for the year. UM is very counterintuitive, but 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:20.080 again that's the world of the financial world. But the 0:01:20.160 --> 0:01:23.399 reality is is that is that you have to get 0:01:23.480 --> 0:01:28.039 through this transition period from you know, the hope of 0:01:28.120 --> 0:01:32.240 the vaccine whenever that is with the reality of the 0:01:32.280 --> 0:01:36.199 fact that you know, honestly the virus is really raking 0:01:36.280 --> 0:01:39.880 out of control and that's the challenge UM and the 0:01:39.920 --> 0:01:42.840 markets are just trying to digest it, and for now 0:01:42.880 --> 0:01:45.600 it's it's really a standoff, which is not a bad 0:01:45.680 --> 0:01:48.840 result to be perfectly frank, given the way the cases 0:01:48.880 --> 0:01:51.160 are spiking. I mean, I look at this, Julian and 0:01:51.240 --> 0:01:53.400 I think of the great Luisia Mata, who would talk 0:01:53.440 --> 0:01:58.000 about distribution. We've been distributing within this noise or September 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:02.279 in October, what's wrong going going flat for a while, 0:02:03.240 --> 0:02:05.960 And nothing's wrong with it actually, and from our point 0:02:06.000 --> 0:02:10.240 of view, you know, Bullmark gets correct in various ways. 0:02:10.440 --> 0:02:13.639 You can have they correct in time, they correct in price, 0:02:14.080 --> 0:02:17.200 you know, literally if you look at it, the NASDAC 0:02:17.320 --> 0:02:21.480 topped on September two, although the other industries made new 0:02:21.520 --> 0:02:25.600 all time highs on Monday. This consolidation process has gone 0:02:25.600 --> 0:02:27.880 on for a couple of months, and from our point 0:02:27.919 --> 0:02:32.240 of view again sideways really given the news would not 0:02:32.360 --> 0:02:34.640 be a bad thing at all, because we do think 0:02:34.680 --> 0:02:38.840 the setup for one is quite positive. Okay, Julian cause 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:42.200 a short term, long term quite positive. What does that 0:02:42.240 --> 0:02:44.600 mean as an investor more cash now looking for an 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:48.920 entry point? I know, I think what it means is 0:02:48.960 --> 0:02:51.680 that if you first of all, we do believe in 0:02:51.680 --> 0:02:55.880 the cyclical rotation, so we think you should be reducing 0:02:55.960 --> 0:02:59.760 some of your exposure to high multiple, high growth, you know, 0:03:00.040 --> 0:03:04.280 technology centric, the work from home names, because honestly, when 0:03:04.320 --> 0:03:08.400 you get to a point where the vaccine becomes closer 0:03:08.440 --> 0:03:13.079 to reality, that will cause an acceleration in the cyclical theme. 0:03:13.520 --> 0:03:18.079 Rotate into financials. We think healthcare is an exceptionally interesting 0:03:18.120 --> 0:03:22.320 proposition here, having been battered because of politics at trading 0:03:22.360 --> 0:03:26.720 at an extreme discount um if you've got gains, we 0:03:26.800 --> 0:03:31.760 think optionality is is very inexpensive downside protection but in 0:03:31.840 --> 0:03:35.880 general patients is what's required. Well, let's talk about the 0:03:35.880 --> 0:03:38.400 optionality Judy, and I just wonder if a different strategy 0:03:38.520 --> 0:03:40.200 is the best approach here. It seems to me we've 0:03:40.240 --> 0:03:42.040 had a series of head fakes over the last six 0:03:42.080 --> 0:03:45.200 to nine months. What you needed going into Monday was 0:03:45.240 --> 0:03:48.560 the optionality on a cyclical move and then cash out 0:03:48.560 --> 0:03:50.440 of it and go back to tech again. And it 0:03:50.440 --> 0:03:52.800 seems to me that that's worked repeatedly, not just over 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:54.360 the last six to nine months, but over the last 0:03:54.360 --> 0:03:57.360 several years. Every time we've had the rotation head fake, 0:03:57.560 --> 0:03:59.400 the people that have really benefited from that were the 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:01.520 people that had to position going gone into the head 0:04:01.560 --> 0:04:03.680 fight and I used everyone asked to fight out of it. 0:04:03.680 --> 0:04:05.960 I caught up with Mike Collins a page Jim yesterday. 0:04:06.000 --> 0:04:07.800 He was doing exactly that in credit. He had a 0:04:07.840 --> 0:04:10.120 stick could expose you got into this week used to 0:04:10.120 --> 0:04:12.240 write to sell it down, Judy and wants that not 0:04:12.320 --> 0:04:16.480 the better approach because again from our point of view, 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:21.839 the psychology factually began to change at the you know, 0:04:21.880 --> 0:04:25.839 the really the the parabolic high in the NASDAC on 0:04:25.880 --> 0:04:29.040 September two, And we think that the market is giving 0:04:29.080 --> 0:04:32.520 you information when you look back to Monday with the 0:04:32.600 --> 0:04:36.800 NASDAK being the only major UH index that didn't make 0:04:36.839 --> 0:04:39.679 a new all time high, and when you look toward 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:43.159 next year, the hope of a Washington that's going to 0:04:43.200 --> 0:04:47.080 be centrist, that's likely going to get stimulus over the line, 0:04:47.200 --> 0:04:50.719 even if it unfortunately does have to wait till a 0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:54.560 new session of Congress that might engage in infrastructure spending 0:04:54.920 --> 0:04:58.400 and really taking down the temperature of Washington. All of 0:04:58.440 --> 0:05:01.159 these things are going to backstop confidence, and we think 0:05:01.200 --> 0:05:04.600 you get this cyclical recovery that not not only is 0:05:04.640 --> 0:05:08.080 in the US, but as we've seen, the monetary authorities 0:05:08.160 --> 0:05:11.240 in Europe for one, are going to be as aggressive, 0:05:11.320 --> 0:05:13.520 if not more than the US, And so you get 0:05:13.520 --> 0:05:17.200 the cyclical theme playing out in markets like Europe and Japan. 0:05:17.520 --> 0:05:20.240 It's just a change of psychology. And we've seen a 0:05:20.279 --> 0:05:23.240 massive momentum shift in the last week that we don't 0:05:23.240 --> 0:05:26.560 think investors should be ignoring. Julian, how do you price 0:05:26.640 --> 0:05:29.400 in economic scarring? And it stems from what we're experiencing 0:05:29.520 --> 0:05:33.080 right now with the pandemic. So so that is really 0:05:33.120 --> 0:05:36.360 the challenge of the concept. And I think part of 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:39.760 what that means is that and and this is typical 0:05:39.920 --> 0:05:43.640 coming out of recessions into recoveries, but it may be 0:05:43.680 --> 0:05:46.520 more exaggerated this time, is that you get a degree 0:05:46.520 --> 0:05:49.640 of multiple compression. Because if you get to a point 0:05:49.760 --> 0:05:54.360 where the next three to six months you have permanent 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:58.720 business closures, and increase in in permanent job losses. That 0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:02.479 means your long run potential shifts in and the the 0:06:02.600 --> 0:06:04.359 you know, the long run what used to be called 0:06:04.440 --> 0:06:08.720 NEHRU shifts higher um and and that's a different mindset 0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:12.320 given the fact that there's an expectation that that people 0:06:12.400 --> 0:06:15.480 think unemployment will eventually go back to three and a 0:06:15.520 --> 0:06:17.880 half or four percent, and that's not going to be 0:06:17.920 --> 0:06:21.560 the reality if we get economic scarring. Julian's thom has 0:06:21.560 --> 0:06:24.239 been far too quiet for the past compliments for my liking, 0:06:24.240 --> 0:06:25.560 Can we wind him up just a little bit and 0:06:25.560 --> 0:06:27.680 can you give me your of you on Judy shout 0:06:27.760 --> 0:06:32.640 to potentially being confirmed to the Federal Reserve. Well, John, 0:06:32.720 --> 0:06:36.080 I think it really just points to the fact that, uh, 0:06:36.560 --> 0:06:39.919 you know, Washington has been a bit too political and 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:43.279 a bit too backward looking these last several months, We 0:06:44.000 --> 0:06:47.240 like j Powell, have been adamant in the need for 0:06:47.320 --> 0:06:52.680 more stimulus, simply because I think backward looking into the 0:06:52.760 --> 0:06:55.720 nineteenth century? Is there where your head? And Julian, well, 0:06:55.760 --> 0:06:59.679 you know, Williams Jennings Bryan didn't want to uh parish 0:06:59.720 --> 0:07:02.840 on the cross of gold, but you know, frankly, the 0:07:02.839 --> 0:07:06.040 gold windows shut with Richard Nixon, and and you know 0:07:06.480 --> 0:07:09.480 to look forward, and we need to get stimulus, and 0:07:09.520 --> 0:07:14.800 we need to talk about the issues that not John, 0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:17.320 I could tell that Julian's dresser behind him there with 0:07:17.400 --> 0:07:19.480 a b T. I g just sign on it. He's 0:07:19.480 --> 0:07:23.680 got a stack of Kruger Rans in that thing. It's 0:07:23.720 --> 0:07:27.760 great to get any money about that. I thank you said, 0:07:31.640 --> 0:07:35.880 he's one of our most acute voices on conservative more 0:07:35.960 --> 0:07:39.280 long term investment, and he has been right right right 0:07:39.680 --> 0:07:43.920 in this bullmarket. James Bevan, can you maintain your optimism 0:07:43.920 --> 0:07:48.600 with the change pandemic? I certainly, Canton what I think 0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:52.520 about fiscal policy. The big question is you have correctly articulated, 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:55.200 is whether or not we would see more spending to 0:07:55.280 --> 0:07:58.960 get aside to the other side of the current economic downturn. 0:07:59.240 --> 0:08:02.600 And I believe interestingly, the government will now be prepared 0:08:02.600 --> 0:08:06.480 to spend more, precisely because the vaccine gives them confidence 0:08:06.640 --> 0:08:08.320 that there really will be an end of the COVID 0:08:08.400 --> 0:08:11.840 nineteen crisis in due course. That to me suggests that 0:08:11.880 --> 0:08:15.400 we will see genuine economic recovery. We will see corporate 0:08:15.400 --> 0:08:19.000 earnings growth, we will see investors had a more because 0:08:19.080 --> 0:08:22.440 if I am correct, that the Central Bank will continue 0:08:22.480 --> 0:08:25.320 to buy bonds, yields will stay low, well below the 0:08:25.400 --> 0:08:28.640 race of inflation. That's great for the mathematics for equities, 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:31.880 it's excellent for company balance sheets and quick clearly, it's 0:08:31.960 --> 0:08:34.640 very supportive consumers that in due course will want to 0:08:34.640 --> 0:08:37.600 be able to spend a lot more money. James, Well, 0:08:37.640 --> 0:08:40.520 you describe is working here in the United Kingdom, that 0:08:40.559 --> 0:08:43.640 beautiful choreography between the Treasury at the Bank of England. 0:08:43.679 --> 0:08:47.040 Can you say the same thing about the US right now? Well, 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:49.240 you know, very interestingly, I think there was a broader 0:08:49.280 --> 0:08:52.320 expectation that had there been a Blue sweep, we would 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:56.040 have seen Mr Biden asking and getting perhaps to two 0:08:56.040 --> 0:09:00.280 and a half trillion dollars to spend on new fiscal sures. 0:09:00.400 --> 0:09:05.400 And I d equally anticipate that the Biden presidency, coupled 0:09:05.480 --> 0:09:09.280 with a Republican Senate, would have been far more tricky 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:11.640 in terms of what could be spent, and perhaps no 0:09:11.760 --> 0:09:14.679 more than half a trillion dollars. However, now that we 0:09:14.760 --> 0:09:17.640 have clarity that there is a vaccine and therefore and 0:09:17.679 --> 0:09:19.760 then I think that Mr Biden will get an extra 0:09:19.840 --> 0:09:24.400 trillion dollars and that will make all the difference a trillion, James, 0:09:24.480 --> 0:09:29.240 what gives you the confidence? Well, I would say two things, John. 0:09:29.320 --> 0:09:31.880 I would say, first off, there is I think a 0:09:31.920 --> 0:09:36.080 broad cross party acceptance in the States that the States 0:09:36.240 --> 0:09:39.440 the government has to do more to end the challenge. 0:09:39.880 --> 0:09:42.600 And I don't believe that the Republicans will wish to 0:09:42.800 --> 0:09:45.840 kill the US economy because it will play very badly 0:09:46.040 --> 0:09:49.439 for their future chances of election. I think the second 0:09:49.520 --> 0:09:52.679 issue is that there is a subtle change in the 0:09:52.840 --> 0:09:57.640 conversations that Jerome Piles having by federal Reserve policy. He's 0:09:57.679 --> 0:10:00.679 made it clear that he supports a grace your quality 0:10:00.920 --> 0:10:03.679 with the new US economy, and he's been very targeted 0:10:03.760 --> 0:10:06.760 in terms of his support of the bond markets. This 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:10.199 is quantity of easing that is focused, that is challenging 0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:14.000 that absolutely, I think is going to be providing the 0:10:14.040 --> 0:10:17.840 base plate for continued low yields and therefore low cost 0:10:17.880 --> 0:10:22.200 fiscal expansion. How much do your market calls hinge on 0:10:22.280 --> 0:10:25.160 this expectation of fiscal support. I believe you're calling for 0:10:25.200 --> 0:10:28.959 the SMP to reach thirty eight hundred by mid two 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:32.880 twenty one and four thousand by the end of the year. Yeah, 0:10:32.920 --> 0:10:37.040 I'm not overly dependent on fiscal support to get there 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:39.240 because the sorts of companies that I think that we 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:43.240 should be investing in our high quality companies. I mean, 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:46.520 you were talking prior to the break about the prospects 0:10:46.520 --> 0:10:49.560 for Disney. Disney for me is a world class company, 0:10:49.600 --> 0:10:52.240 and I would take the recent share price weakness there's 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:56.120 an excellent entry opportunity for the long haul. Equally, if 0:10:56.160 --> 0:10:58.480 I were to think about some of the great companies 0:10:58.520 --> 0:11:02.800 in medical medical technology, I'm still a fan of Metronic 0:11:02.920 --> 0:11:05.880 and Striker because these are companies that I think rise 0:11:05.960 --> 0:11:10.959 from the ashes of share price markt. Dan's just positive, James, 0:11:10.960 --> 0:11:13.679 this is an incredibly important inside folks. We haven't discussed 0:11:13.679 --> 0:11:15.960 this ms A ten or fifteen days because of election 0:11:17.280 --> 0:11:21.199 and the healthcare play. Everybody's simple by Johnson and Johnson, 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:24.280 and there's like three other names down, Components, etcetera. Take 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:27.520 us beneath that tell us about not the specifics of 0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:32.280 Metronic or Striker, but the thematic play of those stacks. 0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:38.559 Given Abiden administration, the first key issue is that as 0:11:38.640 --> 0:11:42.960 people get older, so medical CAB becomes more complex. Were 0:11:43.120 --> 0:11:47.880 into issues like parts replacement for hits, operations, were into 0:11:48.040 --> 0:11:52.319 dialysis that the people who have challenges with their kidneys. 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:54.920 These are all issues where we will see an increasing 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:57.600 spend in the years ahead. In the wake of the 0:11:57.640 --> 0:12:01.800 COVID nineteen crisis, it's called elect active operations, those where 0:12:01.800 --> 0:12:04.760 people can choose if and when they have Such operations 0:12:04.960 --> 0:12:08.760 were essentially shelved, and inevitably there was a big hit 0:12:09.280 --> 0:12:12.800 short term earnings of people providing parts and facilities that 0:12:12.840 --> 0:12:15.760 could be described as elective. If I am correct, the 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:21.160 vaccine leads the gradual reopening of elective surgery and medicinal state. 0:12:21.520 --> 0:12:24.920 So I think will benefits Actually, James, will there be 0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:27.680 a roll up of the industry. There's been roll ups 0:12:27.679 --> 0:12:29.760 in other industries. What are we waiting for in the 0:12:29.840 --> 0:12:34.960 health cares? In the health space, I certainly think there 0:12:35.000 --> 0:12:38.920 will be mergers and acquisitions activity because cash is cheap. 0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:42.520 I'm very very interesting. People talk about the extraordinary performance 0:12:42.559 --> 0:12:47.000 of Alphabet, for example, and the Fangs. Actually in recent years, 0:12:47.600 --> 0:12:50.080 Domino's Pizza that came to the market at the same 0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:54.640 time in two thousand and four has thoroughly outperformed Alphabet, 0:12:54.720 --> 0:12:56.400 and the reason it has done so is it has 0:12:56.440 --> 0:12:59.240 a spent cash and issue debt to buy back its 0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:02.400 own share, so it has magnified as earning. The market 0:13:02.559 --> 0:13:05.880 has been pleased. If Alphabet had played the same game 0:13:06.040 --> 0:13:08.840 and get its parent sheet, it would really be reporting 0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:11.920 earning twice at the current level. And I think this 0:13:12.000 --> 0:13:15.160 issue of using cheap debt to fund them and a 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:19.920 to fund financial engineering is getting a continuous as long 0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:23.840 as we have ample credit and lou cost debt. Jens 0:13:23.840 --> 0:13:26.199 are gonna jump in quickly because you sound so constructive. 0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:28.640 Just a final question for me on where you're playing 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:32.040 things right now. You sound optimistic, yet you're not playing 0:13:32.040 --> 0:13:34.079 it through the European banks. Earlier this week when the 0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:37.600 optimism return, where did people go the European banks? Why 0:13:37.640 --> 0:13:40.720 aren't you doing the same thing. I think that European 0:13:40.720 --> 0:13:44.559 banks remain an accident waiting to happen. Negative interest rates 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:47.720 mean that we have higher savings rates rather than more spending. 0:13:47.920 --> 0:13:50.280 It's extraordinarily difficult for a bank to make money and 0:13:50.320 --> 0:13:53.400 a climates negative interest rates, and I see no expectation 0:13:53.480 --> 0:13:55.559 of the European Central Bank will come to the rescue. 0:13:57.000 --> 0:13:59.640 James Bevan of c c l A just laying it 0:13:59.720 --> 0:14:01.640 into the European banks at the end that James thank 0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:07.319 you got to catch up new and virol on Twitter. 0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:10.200 John W. Hopium the other day. Peter Hotez of Baylor 0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:13.640 College of Medicine is the push of get back against Hopium. 0:14:13.640 --> 0:14:15.920 He's in the reality of finding a vaccine. We'll look 0:14:15.960 --> 0:14:18.240 at that in a minute. Peter Hotez, Can we have 0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:24.160 any vaccine for anybody in America within the vicinity of January? Yeah? 0:14:24.240 --> 0:14:27.200 I think so. Uh, we certainly won't have all seniors 0:14:27.280 --> 0:14:30.560 vaccinated by January. You know what's gonna happen now is, 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:32.840 first of all, the face to be trial has to 0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:36.400 be completed for that VISOR vaccine or other vaccines. Following 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:40.760 the VISOR one will get the full spectrum of safety 0:14:40.880 --> 0:14:44.880 data and also the level of protection. Right now, we 0:14:44.960 --> 0:14:48.320 haven't seen whether the vaccine protects against serious and infection 0:14:48.440 --> 0:14:50.640 or not. I hope that's the case. And also we 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:53.520 haven't seen the protection level in different groups, so we 0:14:53.560 --> 0:14:55.600 don't even know if it protects seniors yet, so we'll 0:14:55.600 --> 0:14:58.440 have to All that information will come out towards the 0:14:58.520 --> 0:15:01.960 end of the year. The likely refriser will likely request 0:15:02.000 --> 0:15:05.080 in emergency use authorization with the f d A. The 0:15:05.120 --> 0:15:07.440 FDA will take a couple of weeks to review it 0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:10.760 and and UH certify that everything looks good, and then 0:15:10.920 --> 0:15:14.760 starting in January, if everything looks good, they could start 0:15:14.800 --> 0:15:18.640 potentially releasing vaccine. Friser says they'll have fifty million doses 0:15:19.120 --> 0:15:21.120 by the end of the year. But remember in the 0:15:21.240 --> 0:15:23.320 US it's only half of that's for the US, that's 0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:26.840 twenty five million doses, and you require two doses of 0:15:26.880 --> 0:15:30.200 the vaccine, So in theory, you could start vaccinating around 0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:35.200 twelve million Americans starting around Peter you Hotez and Botazi 0:15:35.480 --> 0:15:37.800 what eight months ago, a year ago was talking up 0:15:37.840 --> 0:15:40.520 low cost vaccines that don't need to be frozen to 0:15:40.600 --> 0:15:44.560 negative ninety four degrees fahreneit we use fahrenheit John in America. 0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:47.760 Thank you, Dr Hotez. Where are we on a low 0:15:47.840 --> 0:15:52.360 cost vaccine? Well, thanks for asking. So we're hopefully we'll 0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:55.680 announce for starting clinical trials UH in in India and 0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:59.600 five sites and then we can move pretty quickly on 0:15:59.720 --> 0:16:03.520 that UH And then right now biologically BIOE and Hyderabad 0:16:03.520 --> 0:16:07.800 as producing one billion doses, so that's extraordinary. We've never 0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:10.920 made a billion of anything before, so we're very excited. 0:16:10.960 --> 0:16:14.600 This is a simple technology that's been around for almost 0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:17.240 forty years. It uses the same technology used to make 0:16:17.280 --> 0:16:21.200 the recombinant hepatitis B vaccine made locally in many countries, 0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:24.760 and hopefully it could be made for around a dollar 0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:27.800 a dose or less. So so we're very excited about it. 0:16:27.800 --> 0:16:30.800 It's looking really good and and hopefully that can fill 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:32.720 up the areas where it's going to be hard to 0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:35.480 get that VISOR vaccine out because it does require that 0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:40.080 deep deep freeze, which limits our ability to use that 0:16:40.240 --> 0:16:42.320 to vaccinate around the world, and also some of the 0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:45.200 production issues. So we're going to see is a pretty 0:16:45.480 --> 0:16:49.320 complex ecosystem of at least half a dozen different vaccines 0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:51.640 used all around the world. And there definitely is a 0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:54.000 lot more hope as some of these vaccines are shown 0:16:54.000 --> 0:16:56.240 to be effective, and yet we are seeing the pandemic 0:16:56.280 --> 0:16:59.280 worsen dramatically in some places in the United States, and 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:02.600 timing really matters. What is the time frame for you, 0:17:02.680 --> 0:17:05.080 if it's not January for all seniors in the US, 0:17:05.400 --> 0:17:07.800 as alex Azar says, what's the time frame for us 0:17:07.800 --> 0:17:10.000 to get a critical mass of people in the United 0:17:10.000 --> 0:17:14.560 States vaccinated? I hope by Q two will have will 0:17:14.600 --> 0:17:17.679 really move in that direction. So by certainly by the 0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:21.160 summer will be in much better shape than we are now. UH. 0:17:21.160 --> 0:17:23.640 And and it assumes that there's no bumps in the road, 0:17:23.680 --> 0:17:25.520 but of course there are always bumps in the road, 0:17:25.600 --> 0:17:28.480 and and there's another there are other vaccines coming behind it. 0:17:28.560 --> 0:17:31.119 So by the middle of next year, we're going to 0:17:31.200 --> 0:17:33.160 be in a much better position. And that's why I've 0:17:33.200 --> 0:17:36.320 been telling people UH to do everything you can to 0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:40.639 be careful now for the next few months, because things 0:17:40.680 --> 0:17:43.680 are going to get better. We're not asking UH for 0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:48.919 UH for social distancing and mass and perpetuity will eventually 0:17:49.000 --> 0:17:51.960 get to a better place, but just hang on and 0:17:52.080 --> 0:17:54.800 don't do things that are reckless. To be careful and 0:17:54.880 --> 0:17:57.119 look after your loved ones for the next few months. 0:17:58.800 --> 0:18:01.240 Many people shan't have you. Many people also who watch 0:18:01.280 --> 0:18:04.000 and listen to this program followed a panel yesterday with 0:18:04.080 --> 0:18:06.680 ECP President Christine the Guard, the Chairman of the Federal 0:18:06.720 --> 0:18:08.960 Reserve J. Pale, and also the Governor of the Bank 0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:10.560 of England, Mr Bailey, And at the end of that 0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:12.560 panel they were asked what they think are the biggest 0:18:12.720 --> 0:18:16.040 risks right now. President the Guard brought up the mink 0:18:16.119 --> 0:18:19.920 mutation in Denmark. Can you walk us through what you've 0:18:20.000 --> 0:18:22.600 learned from that in the past week or so, doctor, 0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:26.920 and how concerned we should be or shouldn't for that matter. Well, 0:18:27.000 --> 0:18:30.720 remember our RNA viruses. This is an RNA virus, the 0:18:30.920 --> 0:18:35.720 mutate and so far those mutate we've not seen any 0:18:35.760 --> 0:18:41.400 evidence of those mutations are affecting transmissibility or severity of illness, 0:18:42.320 --> 0:18:46.080 or the ability for those vaccines to cross protect. So 0:18:46.800 --> 0:18:50.000 you know, this is a fast moving train. Things could change, 0:18:50.040 --> 0:18:52.480 and things I'm saying today may look very different three 0:18:52.520 --> 0:18:55.480 or four months for now, But right now, I would 0:18:55.480 --> 0:18:59.000 say that the mutations that these virus undergoes on a 0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:02.800 regular basis are not my top flight concern. I'm more 0:19:02.840 --> 0:19:05.679 concerned that we can get some vaccine out to the 0:19:05.760 --> 0:19:08.200 population because you know, in the US, we haven't really 0:19:08.240 --> 0:19:11.800 had a national control program, so there's a complete reliance 0:19:11.840 --> 0:19:17.600 on biotechnology solutions. Uh, let's get the US population vaccinated. 0:19:17.640 --> 0:19:21.159 We have the virologists working on constantly looking at the 0:19:21.160 --> 0:19:26.840 evolution of the virus. Hopefully those vaccines will still be effective. 0:19:26.880 --> 0:19:28.240 You know, one of the things that we're working on 0:19:28.280 --> 0:19:29.919 have been trying to get funding on for more than 0:19:29.960 --> 0:19:32.840 a decade, but the world has not been interested is 0:19:32.880 --> 0:19:36.600 creating a universal coronavirus vaccine. So you know, just like 0:19:36.640 --> 0:19:39.680 there's work towards a universal flu vaccine. We've seen now 0:19:39.720 --> 0:19:42.639 stars one in two thousand three, We've seen mayors in 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:46.080 two thousand twelve. Now we're seeing COVID nineteen. But guess 0:19:46.160 --> 0:19:48.440 what we're gonna see COVID twenty five. We're gonna see 0:19:48.440 --> 0:19:51.400 COVID twenty eight. We're gonna see COVID thirty four. This 0:19:51.480 --> 0:19:54.040 is a new normal. So if we don't have to 0:19:54.880 --> 0:19:57.679 uh rush like a little kids soccer game towards the 0:19:57.720 --> 0:20:01.359 ball every time a new coronaviru our submerges, that would 0:20:01.359 --> 0:20:04.360 be great to develop a universal coronavirus vaccine. And we're 0:20:04.400 --> 0:20:08.800 putting a lot of energy now into that goal. So 0:20:08.920 --> 0:20:10.720 bring word to the end that Delta. I appreciate your 0:20:10.760 --> 0:20:12.399 time this morning. Thank you to pay to how it 0:20:12.440 --> 0:20:19.720 says that of Bayla College of Medicine, we go Washington 0:20:19.800 --> 0:20:22.040 policy on d But we can't do that with Henry 0:20:22.080 --> 0:20:24.280 had a trade. She's not up a speed on bitcoin, 0:20:24.359 --> 0:20:27.399 but she is with Veta Partners on the path forward. 0:20:27.880 --> 0:20:31.159 You know, I look Henrietta where we are now. Everybody 0:20:31.200 --> 0:20:34.600 wants to hear from their president of supporters is not supporters, 0:20:34.680 --> 0:20:39.960 et cetera. Is there any optimism of policy towards this 0:20:40.119 --> 0:20:45.800 pandemic and towards a government shutdown December twelve? I see 0:20:46.080 --> 0:20:50.000 very small pockets of optimism. Unfortunately, we have to keep 0:20:50.040 --> 0:20:53.240 talking about elections, namely the two Senate races in Georgia 0:20:53.640 --> 0:20:56.760 that could be a driver for conversations around a very 0:20:56.840 --> 0:20:59.840 small package of stimulus in the lame duck session. And 0:21:00.040 --> 0:21:02.399 you just pointed out the continuing Resolution to fund the 0:21:02.400 --> 0:21:04.960 government needs to pass by December eleventh, and the two 0:21:04.960 --> 0:21:06.679 senators in Georgia are going to need to show that 0:21:06.680 --> 0:21:09.760 they're making some sort of progress on the coronavirus, especially 0:21:09.800 --> 0:21:12.959 as everybody heads home or tries to engage with their 0:21:13.000 --> 0:21:16.400 family members and Thanksgiving and the cases continue to skyrocket. 0:21:16.720 --> 0:21:19.879 I wonder. And I've heard directly from some folks in 0:21:20.320 --> 0:21:23.600 the various senators offices in Georgia that they'd like to 0:21:23.640 --> 0:21:27.840 take some votes on particularly extending the PPP program and 0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:31.159 potentially providing airline aid, given that Atlanta obviously is a 0:21:31.240 --> 0:21:33.800 huge airline. Okay, so they gotta win. They got to 0:21:33.840 --> 0:21:36.960 win the vote in Hartsfield. I get it. What are 0:21:36.960 --> 0:21:40.320 we going to do about which is clearly the negotiated 0:21:40.359 --> 0:21:43.840 stumbling block, which is the big cities, the big towns 0:21:43.960 --> 0:21:48.040 across this nation. Nothing until the first quarter of next year. 0:21:48.200 --> 0:21:50.879 I don't see a state local aid package happening. I 0:21:50.880 --> 0:21:54.439 don't see aid to mass transit or public rail or 0:21:54.440 --> 0:21:57.920 anything like that. Um, I think that's the first quarter event. 0:21:57.960 --> 0:22:00.679 I think it needs to be done before mark. We 0:22:00.720 --> 0:22:03.399 saw the two thousand nine Recovery Act get passed. I 0:22:03.400 --> 0:22:06.720 think it was February. That's exactly the kind of momentum 0:22:06.800 --> 0:22:10.000 that President Biden will need to bring to the table 0:22:10.240 --> 0:22:12.240 in order to get sixty votes out of the Senate 0:22:12.280 --> 0:22:15.120 in the first quarter next year. But no big aid 0:22:15.160 --> 0:22:18.520 package is passing before the next Congress is sworn in. 0:22:18.840 --> 0:22:21.399 So that's the side in the domestic sphere. When we 0:22:21.440 --> 0:22:24.840 talk about the fiscal backdrop for the United States. Let's 0:22:24.840 --> 0:22:28.560 talk international. Let's talk China coming out and congratulating Joe 0:22:28.600 --> 0:22:31.399 Biden for being the next president of the United States. 0:22:31.400 --> 0:22:35.760 They had actually restrained themselves from doing so. How coincidental 0:22:35.880 --> 0:22:38.920 is it that this comes right after President Trump announces 0:22:38.920 --> 0:22:42.679 some further restrictions on investments in Chinese entities. Not at 0:22:42.720 --> 0:22:45.359 all I mean, you guys nailed it in your last segment. 0:22:45.400 --> 0:22:50.639 I don't think it's remotely coincidental that the acknowledgement of 0:22:50.680 --> 0:22:54.080