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Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Julie.

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Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, financial investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg Julian

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Speaker 1: Emanuel joins us now of bt I G, the chief

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Speaker 1: equity and derisist strategist. Julian, let's just start with the

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Speaker 1: week we've just had and just pause for a moment. Monday,

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Speaker 1: positive vaccine news, this cyclical rotation that everyone was looking for.

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Speaker 1: We all want to live in the back half of one.

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Speaker 1: It sounds so good that we're confronted with the reality

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Speaker 1: of the next few days. Can you walk me through

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Speaker 1: how you're navigating it. I've asked every single guest we've

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Speaker 1: had in this spot that question every single day. What's

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Speaker 1: your response. It's incredibly challenging, no doubt, And you know,

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Speaker 1: I think, to an outside observer or someone who landed

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Speaker 1: from Mars, the idea that you could have profoundly great

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Speaker 1: news on Monday and have the top in the market

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Speaker 1: that looks to us like you know, it could be

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Speaker 1: the high for the year. UM is very counterintuitive, but

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Speaker 1: again that's the world of the financial world. But the

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Speaker 1: reality is is that is that you have to get

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Speaker 1: through this transition period from you know, the hope of

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Speaker 1: the vaccine whenever that is with the reality of the

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Speaker 1: fact that you know, honestly the virus is really raking

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Speaker 1: out of control and that's the challenge UM and the

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Speaker 1: markets are just trying to digest it, and for now

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Speaker 1: it's it's really a standoff, which is not a bad

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Speaker 1: result to be perfectly frank, given the way the cases

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Speaker 1: are spiking. I mean, I look at this, Julian and

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Speaker 1: I think of the great Luisia Mata, who would talk

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Speaker 1: about distribution. We've been distributing within this noise or September

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Speaker 1: in October, what's wrong going going flat for a while,

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Speaker 1: And nothing's wrong with it actually, and from our point

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Speaker 1: of view, you know, Bullmark gets correct in various ways.

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Speaker 1: You can have they correct in time, they correct in price,

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Speaker 1: you know, literally if you look at it, the NASDAC

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Speaker 1: topped on September two, although the other industries made new

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Speaker 1: all time highs on Monday. This consolidation process has gone

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Speaker 1: on for a couple of months, and from our point

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Speaker 1: of view again sideways really given the news would not

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Speaker 1: be a bad thing at all, because we do think

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Speaker 1: the setup for one is quite positive. Okay, Julian cause

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Speaker 1: a short term, long term quite positive. What does that

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Speaker 1: mean as an investor more cash now looking for an

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Speaker 1: entry point? I know, I think what it means is

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Speaker 1: that if you first of all, we do believe in

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Speaker 1: the cyclical rotation, so we think you should be reducing

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Speaker 1: some of your exposure to high multiple, high growth, you know,

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Speaker 1: technology centric, the work from home names, because honestly, when

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Speaker 1: you get to a point where the vaccine becomes closer

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Speaker 1: to reality, that will cause an acceleration in the cyclical theme.

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Speaker 1: Rotate into financials. We think healthcare is an exceptionally interesting

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Speaker 1: proposition here, having been battered because of politics at trading

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Speaker 1: at an extreme discount um if you've got gains, we

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Speaker 1: think optionality is is very inexpensive downside protection but in

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Speaker 1: general patients is what's required. Well, let's talk about the

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Speaker 1: optionality Judy, and I just wonder if a different strategy

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Speaker 1: is the best approach here. It seems to me we've

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Speaker 1: had a series of head fakes over the last six

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Speaker 1: to nine months. What you needed going into Monday was

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Speaker 1: the optionality on a cyclical move and then cash out

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Speaker 1: of it and go back to tech again. And it

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Speaker 1: seems to me that that's worked repeatedly, not just over

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Speaker 1: the last six to nine months, but over the last

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Speaker 1: several years. Every time we've had the rotation head fake,

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Speaker 1: the people that have really benefited from that were the

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Speaker 1: people that had to position going gone into the head

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Speaker 1: fight and I used everyone asked to fight out of it.

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Speaker 1: I caught up with Mike Collins a page Jim yesterday.

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Speaker 1: He was doing exactly that in credit. He had a

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Speaker 1: stick could expose you got into this week used to

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Speaker 1: write to sell it down, Judy and wants that not

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Speaker 1: the better approach because again from our point of view,

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Speaker 1: the psychology factually began to change at the you know,

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Speaker 1: the really the the parabolic high in the NASDAC on

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Speaker 1: September two, And we think that the market is giving

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Speaker 1: you information when you look back to Monday with the

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Speaker 1: NASDAK being the only major UH index that didn't make

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Speaker 1: a new all time high, and when you look toward

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Speaker 1: next year, the hope of a Washington that's going to

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Speaker 1: be centrist, that's likely going to get stimulus over the line,

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Speaker 1: even if it unfortunately does have to wait till a

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Speaker 1: new session of Congress that might engage in infrastructure spending

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Speaker 1: and really taking down the temperature of Washington. All of

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Speaker 1: these things are going to backstop confidence, and we think

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Speaker 1: you get this cyclical recovery that not not only is

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Speaker 1: in the US, but as we've seen, the monetary authorities

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Speaker 1: in Europe for one, are going to be as aggressive,

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Speaker 1: if not more than the US, And so you get

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Speaker 1: the cyclical theme playing out in markets like Europe and Japan.

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Speaker 1: It's just a change of psychology. And we've seen a

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Speaker 1: massive momentum shift in the last week that we don't

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Speaker 1: think investors should be ignoring. Julian, how do you price

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Speaker 1: in economic scarring? And it stems from what we're experiencing

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Speaker 1: right now with the pandemic. So so that is really

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Speaker 1: the challenge of the concept. And I think part of

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Speaker 1: what that means is that and and this is typical

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Speaker 1: coming out of recessions into recoveries, but it may be

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Speaker 1: more exaggerated this time, is that you get a degree

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Speaker 1: of multiple compression. Because if you get to a point

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Speaker 1: where the next three to six months you have permanent

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Speaker 1: business closures, and increase in in permanent job losses. That

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Speaker 1: means your long run potential shifts in and the the

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Speaker 1: you know, the long run what used to be called

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Speaker 1: NEHRU shifts higher um and and that's a different mindset

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Speaker 1: given the fact that there's an expectation that that people

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Speaker 1: think unemployment will eventually go back to three and a

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Speaker 1: half or four percent, and that's not going to be

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Speaker 1: the reality if we get economic scarring. Julian's thom has

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Speaker 1: been far too quiet for the past compliments for my liking,

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Speaker 1: Can we wind him up just a little bit and

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Speaker 1: can you give me your of you on Judy shout

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Speaker 1: to potentially being confirmed to the Federal Reserve. Well, John,

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Speaker 1: I think it really just points to the fact that, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, Washington has been a bit too political and

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Speaker 1: a bit too backward looking these last several months, We

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Speaker 1: like j Powell, have been adamant in the need for

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Speaker 1: more stimulus, simply because I think backward looking into the

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Speaker 1: nineteenth century? Is there where your head? And Julian, well,

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Speaker 1: you know, Williams Jennings Bryan didn't want to uh parish

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Speaker 1: on the cross of gold, but you know, frankly, the

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Speaker 1: gold windows shut with Richard Nixon, and and you know

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Speaker 1: to look forward, and we need to get stimulus, and

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Speaker 1: we need to talk about the issues that not John,

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Speaker 1: I could tell that Julian's dresser behind him there with

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Speaker 1: a b T. I g just sign on it. He's

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Speaker 1: got a stack of Kruger Rans in that thing. It's

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Speaker 1: great to get any money about that. I thank you said,

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Speaker 1: he's one of our most acute voices on conservative more

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Speaker 1: long term investment, and he has been right right right

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Speaker 1: in this bullmarket. James Bevan, can you maintain your optimism

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Speaker 1: with the change pandemic? I certainly, Canton what I think

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Speaker 1: about fiscal policy. The big question is you have correctly articulated,

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Speaker 1: is whether or not we would see more spending to

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Speaker 1: get aside to the other side of the current economic downturn.

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Speaker 1: And I believe interestingly, the government will now be prepared

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Speaker 1: to spend more, precisely because the vaccine gives them confidence

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Speaker 1: that there really will be an end of the COVID

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Speaker 1: nineteen crisis in due course. That to me suggests that

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Speaker 1: we will see genuine economic recovery. We will see corporate

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Speaker 1: earnings growth, we will see investors had a more because

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Speaker 1: if I am correct, that the Central Bank will continue

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Speaker 1: to buy bonds, yields will stay low, well below the

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Speaker 1: race of inflation. That's great for the mathematics for equities,

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Speaker 1: it's excellent for company balance sheets and quick clearly, it's

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Speaker 1: very supportive consumers that in due course will want to

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Speaker 1: be able to spend a lot more money. James, Well,

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Speaker 1: you describe is working here in the United Kingdom, that

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Speaker 1: beautiful choreography between the Treasury at the Bank of England.

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Speaker 1: Can you say the same thing about the US right now? Well,

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Speaker 1: you know, very interestingly, I think there was a broader

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Speaker 1: expectation that had there been a Blue sweep, we would

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Speaker 1: have seen Mr Biden asking and getting perhaps to two

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Speaker 1: and a half trillion dollars to spend on new fiscal sures.

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Speaker 1: And I d equally anticipate that the Biden presidency, coupled

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Speaker 1: with a Republican Senate, would have been far more tricky

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Speaker 1: in terms of what could be spent, and perhaps no

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Speaker 1: more than half a trillion dollars. However, now that we

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Speaker 1: have clarity that there is a vaccine and therefore and

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Speaker 1: then I think that Mr Biden will get an extra

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Speaker 1: trillion dollars and that will make all the difference a trillion, James,

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Speaker 1: what gives you the confidence? Well, I would say two things, John.

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Speaker 1: I would say, first off, there is I think a

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Speaker 1: broad cross party acceptance in the States that the States

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Speaker 1: the government has to do more to end the challenge.

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Speaker 1: And I don't believe that the Republicans will wish to

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Speaker 1: kill the US economy because it will play very badly

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Speaker 1: for their future chances of election. I think the second

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Speaker 1: issue is that there is a subtle change in the

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Speaker 1: conversations that Jerome Piles having by federal Reserve policy. He's

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Speaker 1: made it clear that he supports a grace your quality

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Speaker 1: with the new US economy, and he's been very targeted

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Speaker 1: in terms of his support of the bond markets. This

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Speaker 1: is quantity of easing that is focused, that is challenging

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Speaker 1: that absolutely, I think is going to be providing the

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Speaker 1: base plate for continued low yields and therefore low cost

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Speaker 1: fiscal expansion. How much do your market calls hinge on

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Speaker 1: this expectation of fiscal support. I believe you're calling for

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Speaker 1: the SMP to reach thirty eight hundred by mid two

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Speaker 1: twenty one and four thousand by the end of the year. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm not overly dependent on fiscal support to get there

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Speaker 1: because the sorts of companies that I think that we

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Speaker 1: should be investing in our high quality companies. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you were talking prior to the break about the prospects

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Speaker 1: for Disney. Disney for me is a world class company,

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Speaker 1: and I would take the recent share price weakness there's

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Speaker 1: an excellent entry opportunity for the long haul. Equally, if

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Speaker 1: I were to think about some of the great companies

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Speaker 1: in medical medical technology, I'm still a fan of Metronic

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Speaker 1: and Striker because these are companies that I think rise

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Speaker 1: from the ashes of share price markt. Dan's just positive, James,

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Speaker 1: this is an incredibly important inside folks. We haven't discussed

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Speaker 1: this ms A ten or fifteen days because of election

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Speaker 1: and the healthcare play. Everybody's simple by Johnson and Johnson,

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Speaker 1: and there's like three other names down, Components, etcetera. Take

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Speaker 1: us beneath that tell us about not the specifics of

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Speaker 1: Metronic or Striker, but the thematic play of those stacks.

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Speaker 1: Given Abiden administration, the first key issue is that as

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Speaker 1: people get older, so medical CAB becomes more complex. Were

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Speaker 1: into issues like parts replacement for hits, operations, were into

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Speaker 1: dialysis that the people who have challenges with their kidneys.

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Speaker 1: These are all issues where we will see an increasing

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Speaker 1: spend in the years ahead. In the wake of the

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Speaker 1: COVID nineteen crisis, it's called elect active operations, those where

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Speaker 1: people can choose if and when they have Such operations

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Speaker 1: were essentially shelved, and inevitably there was a big hit

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Speaker 1: short term earnings of people providing parts and facilities that

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Speaker 1: could be described as elective. If I am correct, the

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Speaker 1: vaccine leads the gradual reopening of elective surgery and medicinal state.

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Speaker 1: So I think will benefits Actually, James, will there be

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Speaker 1: a roll up of the industry. There's been roll ups

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Speaker 1: in other industries. What are we waiting for in the

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Speaker 1: health cares? In the health space, I certainly think there

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Speaker 1: will be mergers and acquisitions activity because cash is cheap.

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Speaker 1: I'm very very interesting. People talk about the extraordinary performance

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Speaker 1: of Alphabet, for example, and the Fangs. Actually in recent years,

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Speaker 1: Domino's Pizza that came to the market at the same

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Speaker 1: time in two thousand and four has thoroughly outperformed Alphabet,

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Speaker 1: and the reason it has done so is it has

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Speaker 1: a spent cash and issue debt to buy back its

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Speaker 1: own share, so it has magnified as earning. The market

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Speaker 1: has been pleased. If Alphabet had played the same game

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Speaker 1: and get its parent sheet, it would really be reporting

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Speaker 1: earning twice at the current level. And I think this

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Speaker 1: issue of using cheap debt to fund them and a

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Speaker 1: to fund financial engineering is getting a continuous as long

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Speaker 1: as we have ample credit and lou cost debt. Jens

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Speaker 1: are gonna jump in quickly because you sound so constructive.

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Speaker 1: Just a final question for me on where you're playing

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Speaker 1: things right now. You sound optimistic, yet you're not playing

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Speaker 1: it through the European banks. Earlier this week when the

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Speaker 1: optimism return, where did people go the European banks? Why

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Speaker 1: aren't you doing the same thing. I think that European

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Speaker 1: banks remain an accident waiting to happen. Negative interest rates

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Speaker 1: mean that we have higher savings rates rather than more spending.

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Speaker 1: It's extraordinarily difficult for a bank to make money and

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Speaker 1: a climates negative interest rates, and I see no expectation

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Speaker 1: of the European Central Bank will come to the rescue.

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Speaker 1: James Bevan of c c l A just laying it

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Speaker 1: into the European banks at the end that James thank

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Speaker 1: you got to catch up new and virol on Twitter.

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Speaker 1: John W. Hopium the other day. Peter Hotez of Baylor

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Speaker 1: College of Medicine is the push of get back against Hopium.

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Speaker 1: He's in the reality of finding a vaccine. We'll look

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Speaker 1: at that in a minute. Peter Hotez, Can we have

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Speaker 1: any vaccine for anybody in America within the vicinity of January? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I think so. Uh, we certainly won't have all seniors

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Speaker 1: vaccinated by January. You know what's gonna happen now is,

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Speaker 1: first of all, the face to be trial has to

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Speaker 1: be completed for that VISOR vaccine or other vaccines. Following

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Speaker 1: the VISOR one will get the full spectrum of safety

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Speaker 1: data and also the level of protection. Right now, we

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Speaker 1: haven't seen whether the vaccine protects against serious and infection

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Speaker 1: or not. I hope that's the case. And also we

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Speaker 1: haven't seen the protection level in different groups, so we

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Speaker 1: don't even know if it protects seniors yet, so we'll

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Speaker 1: have to All that information will come out towards the

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Speaker 1: end of the year. The likely refriser will likely request

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Speaker 1: in emergency use authorization with the f d A. The

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Speaker 1: FDA will take a couple of weeks to review it

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Speaker 1: and and UH certify that everything looks good, and then

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Speaker 1: starting in January, if everything looks good, they could start

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Speaker 1: potentially releasing vaccine. Friser says they'll have fifty million doses

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Speaker 1: by the end of the year. But remember in the

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Speaker 1: US it's only half of that's for the US, that's

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Speaker 1: twenty five million doses, and you require two doses of

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Speaker 1: the vaccine, So in theory, you could start vaccinating around

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Speaker 1: twelve million Americans starting around Peter you Hotez and Botazi

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Speaker 1: what eight months ago, a year ago was talking up

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Speaker 1: low cost vaccines that don't need to be frozen to

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Speaker 1: negative ninety four degrees fahreneit we use fahrenheit John in America.

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Speaker 1: Thank you, Dr Hotez. Where are we on a low

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Speaker 1: cost vaccine? Well, thanks for asking. So we're hopefully we'll

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Speaker 1: announce for starting clinical trials UH in in India and

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Speaker 1: five sites and then we can move pretty quickly on

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Speaker 1: that UH And then right now biologically BIOE and Hyderabad

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Speaker 1: as producing one billion doses, so that's extraordinary. We've never

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Speaker 1: made a billion of anything before, so we're very excited.

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Speaker 1: This is a simple technology that's been around for almost

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Speaker 1: forty years. It uses the same technology used to make

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Speaker 1: the recombinant hepatitis B vaccine made locally in many countries,

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Speaker 1: and hopefully it could be made for around a dollar

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Speaker 1: a dose or less. So so we're very excited about it.

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Speaker 1: It's looking really good and and hopefully that can fill

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Speaker 1: up the areas where it's going to be hard to

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Speaker 1: get that VISOR vaccine out because it does require that

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Speaker 1: deep deep freeze, which limits our ability to use that

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Speaker 1: to vaccinate around the world, and also some of the

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Speaker 1: production issues. So we're going to see is a pretty

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Speaker 1: complex ecosystem of at least half a dozen different vaccines

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Speaker 1: used all around the world. And there definitely is a

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Speaker 1: lot more hope as some of these vaccines are shown

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Speaker 1: to be effective, and yet we are seeing the pandemic

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Speaker 1: worsen dramatically in some places in the United States, and

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Speaker 1: timing really matters. What is the time frame for you,

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Speaker 1: if it's not January for all seniors in the US,

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Speaker 1: as alex Azar says, what's the time frame for us

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Speaker 1: to get a critical mass of people in the United

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Speaker 1: States vaccinated? I hope by Q two will have will

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Speaker 1: really move in that direction. So by certainly by the

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Speaker 1: summer will be in much better shape than we are now. UH.

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Speaker 1: And and it assumes that there's no bumps in the road,

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Speaker 1: but of course there are always bumps in the road,

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Speaker 1: and and there's another there are other vaccines coming behind it.

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Speaker 1: So by the middle of next year, we're going to

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Speaker 1: be in a much better position. And that's why I've

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Speaker 1: been telling people UH to do everything you can to

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Speaker 1: be careful now for the next few months, because things

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Speaker 1: are going to get better. We're not asking UH for

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Speaker 1: UH for social distancing and mass and perpetuity will eventually

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Speaker 1: get to a better place, but just hang on and

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Speaker 1: don't do things that are reckless. To be careful and

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Speaker 1: look after your loved ones for the next few months.

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Speaker 1: Many people shan't have you. Many people also who watch

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Speaker 1: and listen to this program followed a panel yesterday with

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Speaker 1: ECP President Christine the Guard, the Chairman of the Federal

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Speaker 1: Reserve J. Pale, and also the Governor of the Bank

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Speaker 1: of England, Mr Bailey, And at the end of that

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Speaker 1: panel they were asked what they think are the biggest

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Speaker 1: risks right now. President the Guard brought up the mink

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Speaker 1: mutation in Denmark. Can you walk us through what you've

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Speaker 1: learned from that in the past week or so, doctor,

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Speaker 1: and how concerned we should be or shouldn't for that matter. Well,

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Speaker 1: remember our RNA viruses. This is an RNA virus, the

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Speaker 1: mutate and so far those mutate we've not seen any

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Speaker 1: evidence of those mutations are affecting transmissibility or severity of illness,

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Speaker 1: or the ability for those vaccines to cross protect. So

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Speaker 1: you know, this is a fast moving train. Things could change,

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Speaker 1: and things I'm saying today may look very different three

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Speaker 1: or four months for now, But right now, I would

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Speaker 1: say that the mutations that these virus undergoes on a

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Speaker 1: regular basis are not my top flight concern. I'm more

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Speaker 1: concerned that we can get some vaccine out to the

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Speaker 1: population because you know, in the US, we haven't really

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Speaker 1: had a national control program, so there's a complete reliance

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Speaker 1: on biotechnology solutions. Uh, let's get the US population vaccinated.

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Speaker 1: We have the virologists working on constantly looking at the

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Speaker 1: evolution of the virus. Hopefully those vaccines will still be effective.

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Speaker 1: You know, one of the things that we're working on

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Speaker 1: have been trying to get funding on for more than

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Speaker 1: a decade, but the world has not been interested is

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Speaker 1: creating a universal coronavirus vaccine. So you know, just like

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Speaker 1: there's work towards a universal flu vaccine. We've seen now

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Speaker 1: stars one in two thousand three, We've seen mayors in

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Speaker 1: two thousand twelve. Now we're seeing COVID nineteen. But guess

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Speaker 1: what we're gonna see COVID twenty five. We're gonna see

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Speaker 1: COVID twenty eight. We're gonna see COVID thirty four. This

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Speaker 1: is a new normal. So if we don't have to

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Speaker 1: uh rush like a little kids soccer game towards the

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Speaker 1: ball every time a new coronaviru our submerges, that would

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Speaker 1: be great to develop a universal coronavirus vaccine. And we're

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Speaker 1: putting a lot of energy now into that goal. So

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Speaker 1: bring word to the end that Delta. I appreciate your

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Speaker 1: time this morning. Thank you to pay to how it

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Speaker 1: says that of Bayla College of Medicine, we go Washington

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Speaker 1: policy on d But we can't do that with Henry

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Speaker 1: had a trade. She's not up a speed on bitcoin,

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Speaker 1: but she is with Veta Partners on the path forward.

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Speaker 1: You know, I look Henrietta where we are now. Everybody

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Speaker 1: wants to hear from their president of supporters is not supporters,

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Speaker 1: et cetera. Is there any optimism of policy towards this

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Speaker 1: pandemic and towards a government shutdown December twelve? I see

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Speaker 1: very small pockets of optimism. Unfortunately, we have to keep

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Speaker 1: talking about elections, namely the two Senate races in Georgia

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Speaker 1: that could be a driver for conversations around a very

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Speaker 1: small package of stimulus in the lame duck session. And

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Speaker 1: you just pointed out the continuing Resolution to fund the

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Speaker 1: government needs to pass by December eleventh, and the two

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Speaker 1: senators in Georgia are going to need to show that

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Speaker 1: they're making some sort of progress on the coronavirus, especially

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Speaker 1: as everybody heads home or tries to engage with their

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Speaker 1: family members and Thanksgiving and the cases continue to skyrocket.

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Speaker 1: I wonder. And I've heard directly from some folks in

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Speaker 1: the various senators offices in Georgia that they'd like to

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Speaker 1: take some votes on particularly extending the PPP program and

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Speaker 1: potentially providing airline aid, given that Atlanta obviously is a

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Speaker 1: huge airline. Okay, so they gotta win. They got to

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Speaker 1: win the vote in Hartsfield. I get it. What are

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Speaker 1: we going to do about which is clearly the negotiated

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Speaker 1: stumbling block, which is the big cities, the big towns

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Speaker 1: across this nation. Nothing until the first quarter of next year.

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Speaker 1: I don't see a state local aid package happening. I

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Speaker 1: don't see aid to mass transit or public rail or

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Speaker 1: anything like that. Um, I think that's the first quarter event.

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Speaker 1: I think it needs to be done before mark. We

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Speaker 1: saw the two thousand nine Recovery Act get passed. I

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Speaker 1: think it was February. That's exactly the kind of momentum

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Speaker 1: that President Biden will need to bring to the table

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Speaker 1: in order to get sixty votes out of the Senate

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Speaker 1: in the first quarter next year. But no big aid

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Speaker 1: package is passing before the next Congress is sworn in.

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Speaker 1: So that's the side in the domestic sphere. When we

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Speaker 1: talk about the fiscal backdrop for the United States. Let's

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Speaker 1: talk international. Let's talk China coming out and congratulating Joe

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Speaker 1: Biden for being the next president of the United States.

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Speaker 1: They had actually restrained themselves from doing so. How coincidental

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Speaker 1: is it that this comes right after President Trump announces

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Speaker 1: some further restrictions on investments in Chinese entities. Not at

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Speaker 1: all I mean, you guys nailed it in your last segment.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's remotely coincidental that the acknowledgement of

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Speaker 1: President like Biden having won the election came and coincided

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Speaker 1: almost exactly in the same process. You know, twelve and

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Speaker 1: or twenty four hours later, from every phase in the

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Speaker 1: US China trade war, whether it was tariffs or announcements

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Speaker 1: around quawe or export control restrictions, every time the President

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Speaker 1: did anything, there about twelve hours later we get a

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Speaker 1: response from China. And that's exactly what we got last night. UM.

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Speaker 1: I think the most important cabinet official to watch in

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Speaker 1: You know, people are concentrating on Treasury and Commerce and State,

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Speaker 1: and I respect that, I get it. I think the

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Speaker 1: most exciting is who's going to be the ut next

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Speaker 1: US trade representative. UM, that person is going to inherit.

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Speaker 1: You know, over three hundred billion dollars worth the tariffs

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Speaker 1: on China, and that's gonna be as soon as we

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Speaker 1: get past the stimulus conversation. I think probably the only

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Speaker 1: jofiic in DC, aside from regulatory changes that we have

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Speaker 1: for the next three and a half years. That's where

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Speaker 1: I wanted to go. How does Joe Biden respond to this,

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Speaker 1: because frankly, there's bipartisan agreement on taking a harder line

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Speaker 1: with China. Does he embrace this or does he push

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Speaker 1: back and try to indicate that he's going to take

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Speaker 1: a similarly hard line as President Trump. There was a

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Speaker 1: line that I heard from the Chief of Staff in

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Speaker 1: the Ways of Means Committee on the Trade Subcommittee a

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Speaker 1: couple of months back, and effectively she said, you know,

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Speaker 1: when we see the President imposing tariffs on China, we think, well, great,

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Speaker 1: he's doing the hard work for us. Now when President

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Speaker 1: Biden comes in, he is in a position to offer

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Speaker 1: the carrots and not necessarily need to impose more sticks.

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Speaker 1: So as China and the US engage and start to

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Speaker 1: talk about real fundamental forms, not you know, buying more

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Speaker 1: soybeans or more pork bellies, but actually instituting um um

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Speaker 1: intellectual property theft changes um and forced tech transfer, they

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Speaker 1: can walk down the tariffs eventually. We've heard from the

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Speaker 1: Biden transition team repeatedly now that they're going to first

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Speaker 1: focus on domestic priorities, so stimulus all day in the

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Speaker 1: first quarter. But as we get beyond that and we

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Speaker 1: start to you know, re engage with China or the EU,

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Speaker 1: or Japan or the UK and hash out these trade agreements.

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Speaker 1: There needs to be a substantive discussion that I think

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Speaker 1: will dominate the next three years. Henrietta, thank you so

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Speaker 1: much to Tray as a policy briefing. She's with the

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Speaker 1: Data Partners. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or

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Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom

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Speaker 1: Keene before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio