1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,720 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Now, let's talk a 7 00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: little bit about Apollo. Leon black is the famed billionaire 8 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:31,159 Speaker 1: who is one of the co founders of Apollo, but 9 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 1: he was tangled up in the drama around disgraced financier 10 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:42,120 Speaker 1: Jeffrey Epstein and is stepping down as chief executive of 11 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 1: his company a few months ahead of schedule. Shnelly Bassk 12 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:49,000 Speaker 1: covers Wall Street for US for Bloomberg News. Shaley, Um, 13 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:52,520 Speaker 1: does this mean that Apollo can make an earlier sort 14 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 1: of uh restart at It's I guess pr campaign to 15 00:00:58,080 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 1: get away from Epstein? Listen at. That's certainly the hope. 16 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:03,120 Speaker 1: If you look at Apollo shares in the year, they're 17 00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 1: pretty flat, whereas Blackstone is up more than twelve percent, 18 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 1: so they're at a pretty big differential when you compare 19 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 1: them to their largest competitor. They have some big things 20 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:17,200 Speaker 1: on the horizon for themselves. They agreed to an eleven 21 00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:20,399 Speaker 1: billion dollar deal to merge with the insurance company that 22 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:23,320 Speaker 1: they founded. So there is a hope that they can 23 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: start moving past the scandal and into a growth phase. 24 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:29,960 Speaker 1: Uh and yeah, that's that is the main hope. It 25 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: is a big surprise, right because Leon Black initially said 26 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:36,600 Speaker 1: he would step back a CEO but stay chairman, and 27 00:01:36,680 --> 00:01:41,000 Speaker 1: now he's stepping back as chairman and CEO and um, 28 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 1: he will be involved in the sense that he will 29 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 1: remain the firm's largest shareholder. Sne has anything changed, Has 30 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 1: any news come up to maybe, uh, precipitate this move here. 31 00:01:51,120 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 1: I know that the news is generally as it relates 32 00:01:53,280 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 1: to his relationship with Epstein, been very very unsettling for 33 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 1: the firm. But has anything new come out? Well, yeah, 34 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:00,840 Speaker 1: the fact that he's stepping back come completely like this 35 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:04,840 Speaker 1: begs the question if investors were concerned that he remained 36 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:08,679 Speaker 1: it's affiliated with the firm at all. So the thing 37 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:11,200 Speaker 1: is he said to the board that really this has 38 00:02:11,240 --> 00:02:14,360 Speaker 1: taken a toll on him. A lot of this public 39 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:18,040 Speaker 1: spotlight in light of his own relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. Remember, 40 00:02:18,080 --> 00:02:20,920 Speaker 1: Apaulo did not have a relationship, just Leon Black did, 41 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 1: and he said that it really took a toll on 42 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:25,919 Speaker 1: his health and that's why he's stepping back. So he 43 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:29,240 Speaker 1: did paint this as a very personal decision when when 44 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:33,560 Speaker 1: he announced this just this morning. Now you cover private 45 00:02:33,560 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 1: equity for us and talked to the biggest movers and 46 00:02:36,280 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 1: shakers in the industry and half for years, Leon Black 47 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: paid Jeffrey Epstein a hundred and fifty eight million dollars 48 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:49,280 Speaker 1: for financial advice. Does that seem to you, you know, 49 00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:52,919 Speaker 1: in the realm of billionaires, like something that's at all 50 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 1: normal to do. Listen, it's a lot of money, and 51 00:02:56,080 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: it really financed such a large amount of Jeffrey EPP's 52 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 1: dean's own wealth that it did raise a ton of eyebrows. 53 00:03:04,000 --> 00:03:06,120 Speaker 1: On top of that, it was a hundred and fifty 54 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:10,200 Speaker 1: eight million dollars, largely for tax advice. Leon Black is 55 00:03:10,240 --> 00:03:14,120 Speaker 1: a financial genius, right, so that amount of money for 56 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 1: tax advice seemed like a lot of money to spend 57 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:22,240 Speaker 1: for any type of consultancy, let alone tax advice. What's 58 00:03:22,240 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: the impact been on the firm? Has there been any 59 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 1: impact on the firm from um this fallout with Mr Epstein. Listen, Yes, absolutely, investors, 60 00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 1: large pension funds were threatening to not really continue to 61 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: invest in some of Apollo's largest funds, right, and which 62 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 1: is why a lot of this decision had happened in 63 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:42,920 Speaker 1: the first place. Mark Rowan was really who was becoming 64 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 1: the CEO of this firm, was behind some of the 65 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 1: most profitable bets at Apollo, so it was a really 66 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:49,880 Speaker 1: natural choice to take over for the firm. He was 67 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 1: also a co founder, so a lot of consistency. But yes, 68 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 1: the the Epstein scandal really did weigh on Apollo. It 69 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 1: seemed to very much weigh on Leon black himself. And 70 00:04:00,600 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 1: these people are just looking forward to moving on and 71 00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 1: moving to the next phase of this firm. Again, they 72 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:07,760 Speaker 1: have a lot of catch up to do when you 73 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 1: compare them with Blackstone, but this is certainly a big 74 00:04:11,760 --> 00:04:14,320 Speaker 1: move for a firm that has really become a giant 75 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 1: of finance. Ye. Hey, Shinali, thanks so much for joining. 76 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:20,839 Speaker 1: It's just a fascinating story here, Shinali Bostic. She is 77 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Wall Street reporter. We always enjoyed getting the latest 78 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:30,600 Speaker 1: we all know of the many, many, many industries that 79 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:33,520 Speaker 1: have been disrupted by COVID. I guess we saw first 80 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 1: and foremost, you know a year ago right about now, 81 00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:40,240 Speaker 1: leisure and lodging and just you know, how the consumer 82 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 1: goes about his or her daily life. Well, let's take 83 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:46,279 Speaker 1: let's think about the insurance industry and what changes it 84 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:49,440 Speaker 1: has had to implement as it deals with COVID. There's 85 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:52,039 Speaker 1: nobody better to chat about that than Wayne Peacocky's the 86 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 1: president and CEO of U s a A based in 87 00:04:55,839 --> 00:05:00,160 Speaker 1: beautiful San Antonio, Texas. I spent many, many day as 88 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 1: in San Antonio, Texas. Uh. Some great folks down there, Wayne, 89 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for joining us here. Again we think 90 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 1: about the pandemic disrupting a lot of industries. UH many 91 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 1: profoundly give us a sense of how it impacted your 92 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:16,880 Speaker 1: business over the past twelve months. Well again, thanks for 93 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:19,599 Speaker 1: having me on this morning, and great to be reaching 94 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 1: out from San Antonio. A little more beautiful this week 95 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:23,720 Speaker 1: than a couple of weeks ago with the deep freeze, 96 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 1: so we're we're thawing out here today. You know, for us, 97 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:30,600 Speaker 1: first and foremost was the need to get our employees 98 00:05:30,839 --> 00:05:33,800 Speaker 1: out of the office and working remotely. UM. And be 99 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:36,359 Speaker 1: able to do that without interrupting service. I think we 100 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:39,839 Speaker 1: did that pretty well back in March of last year. 101 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:43,040 Speaker 1: But as we think back to last year, two big 102 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:46,240 Speaker 1: themes I think that are important to historic catastrophe year 103 00:05:46,920 --> 00:05:50,280 Speaker 1: UM and the need to be able to serve members 104 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:53,719 Speaker 1: in need UM without actually being able to get out 105 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 1: in virtually and physically inspect their their homes. So the 106 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:00,160 Speaker 1: work we've been doing over the years to build digital 107 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:04,159 Speaker 1: capabilities paid huge dividends as we adjusted our model to 108 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 1: do virtual adjusting for catastrophes. And in the auto insurance 109 00:06:09,000 --> 00:06:12,719 Speaker 1: business UM, as we all went home and businesses shut down, 110 00:06:13,120 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 1: UM folks stopped driving, So a very significant change in 111 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 1: the frequency of miles driven UM and accidents that will 112 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 1: come as a result of that. So two different stories 113 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 1: for us UM in the insurance business last year. And 114 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:31,799 Speaker 1: you Wayne have followed the Marine Corps philosophy for making 115 00:06:31,839 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 1: decisions solution. Tell us what that is. Well, I'll tell you. 116 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:39,039 Speaker 1: First of all, a global pandemic was not on my 117 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 1: priority list, and I became the CEO on February one 118 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 1: of last year. I had about nineteen days of grace 119 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:47,280 Speaker 1: before the world began to you know, kind of unravel 120 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:49,920 Speaker 1: and it became really clear that we needed to move 121 00:06:49,960 --> 00:06:53,599 Speaker 1: with speed UM to make decisions as simple as and 122 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 1: as complex as getting employees home UM and then just 123 00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:59,279 Speaker 1: you know, a range of decisions as we adapted and 124 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 1: changed the busines this. So we took on this philosophy 125 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 1: of you know, we're not gonna have perfect information, we 126 00:07:03,920 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 1: won't have everything that we need, but we do need 127 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 1: to make a good risk managed decision, and we need 128 00:07:08,839 --> 00:07:12,160 Speaker 1: to make it today. Um SE seems like a good 129 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:16,160 Speaker 1: number to start with. And then recognizing this changing environment, 130 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 1: that conditions will change and we can rechoose tomorrow if necessary, 131 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 1: but better to choose today UM than not choose. And 132 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:26,080 Speaker 1: I think that served us UM really well through the 133 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 1: height of the pandemic and thankfully as continuing to serve 134 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:31,800 Speaker 1: us today as we kind of taught ourselves that UM, 135 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 1: this big organization can move at a much faster pace 136 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:38,280 Speaker 1: than maybe we thought possible before the pandemic arrived on 137 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 1: our doorstep. So Wayne USA A serves the needs the 138 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:48,360 Speaker 1: insurance needs of US military members and and and veterans 139 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:51,680 Speaker 1: talk to us about any special insurance needs they may 140 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:55,120 Speaker 1: need here around covid UM that you've had to deal 141 00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:58,720 Speaker 1: with well, like all of us, uh, you know, the 142 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 1: d O D shutdown as well. So we had military 143 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 1: folks who were planning to move duty stations, UM, those 144 00:08:05,960 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 1: were halted. In many cases, we'd started to help them 145 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 1: with their plans for their new location while they were 146 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 1: stuck in their old location. So just working through some 147 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 1: of those challenges as their kind of move was suspended 148 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:21,040 Speaker 1: is an example. UM. I think from an insurance standpoint, 149 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 1: really kind of being there when they need us most. 150 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:26,840 Speaker 1: But what we saw a lot, especially with enlisted folks 151 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:29,840 Speaker 1: is um, you know that enlisted soldier or sailor airmen 152 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 1: is still getting their paycheck, but their spouse most likely 153 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 1: has been disaffected much more so than the average person 154 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:39,839 Speaker 1: in the pandemic. So a lot of under employment or 155 00:08:40,000 --> 00:08:43,000 Speaker 1: no employment in that kind of second income for a 156 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 1: group of folks who are really kind of working paycheck 157 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 1: to paycheck every single month. So we had about a 158 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 1: million of our members that we helped either by you know, uh, 159 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:55,720 Speaker 1: stringing out their payments to on a longer pace or 160 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 1: foregoing some of the payments that they owed us, both 161 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:02,479 Speaker 1: in terms of banking UM and in our insurance portfolio. 162 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:05,199 Speaker 1: And it's just really helpful to that group to ease 163 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:07,719 Speaker 1: the pain m as they work through some of the 164 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 1: challenges like the rest of us did last year. And 165 00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 1: you you provided more than forty seven million dollars to 166 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 1: support COVID nineteen relief for families of the military, also 167 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,640 Speaker 1: fifty million over three years. You have a program to 168 00:09:20,640 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 1: support racial equity initiatives, and your return more than a 169 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:28,520 Speaker 1: billion dollars in dividends to members during the pandemic. What 170 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:32,320 Speaker 1: how does that compare in terms of returning dividends. Well, 171 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:35,600 Speaker 1: it's something we really have. We we returned dividends every year. 172 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:38,599 Speaker 1: It's part of the great part of the Usays Association. 173 00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: When we have funds left over at the end, we 174 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,640 Speaker 1: return them back to members. But these are special dividends 175 00:09:44,640 --> 00:09:47,319 Speaker 1: that we did throughout the year in recognition of our 176 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 1: auto insurance policy holders, you know, who are not driving 177 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 1: as much. We did a series of three of those 178 00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 1: during the year, totally, as you said, about a billion dollars. 179 00:09:56,240 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 1: And then what we realized, you know, we can help 180 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:01,199 Speaker 1: you know, members who are in need, but we really 181 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:04,400 Speaker 1: needed to take an additional step, so we put almost 182 00:10:04,440 --> 00:10:07,040 Speaker 1: fifty million dollars into COVID relief, whether it was food 183 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:10,080 Speaker 1: and security issues and markets where you know we work 184 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:13,719 Speaker 1: and live, or very specifically about thirty million dollars UM 185 00:10:13,760 --> 00:10:17,559 Speaker 1: that we invested with military aid societies so that they 186 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:21,920 Speaker 1: could give low interest loans or grants UM two soldier sailors, 187 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 1: airmen and National guardsman who you know may be having 188 00:10:24,600 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 1: a difficult time through that period. And then with the 189 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:31,160 Speaker 1: social unrest um that we all experienced last year, we 190 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 1: recognize we need to do more on our part as well, 191 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 1: and so we've committed you know, fifty million dollars the 192 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 1: first in our history UM to try to attack and 193 00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 1: address some of the challenges with systemic racism and the 194 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 1: inequalities that are kind of built into the fabric of 195 00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 1: our society. So really interested in making a difference on 196 00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 1: that front as well. All right, Wayne Peacock diving into 197 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:55,360 Speaker 1: the d pen taking over as President CEO of us 198 00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 1: A a mere really days before the pandemic hit the 199 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 1: show orders the United States of America. Thanks so much 200 00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:07,120 Speaker 1: for joining us, Wayne. Let's get over to somebody who 201 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 1: is clearly an expert in how these markets work. Pete 202 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:14,320 Speaker 1: Anderson joins us UH. He is the founder of Anderson 203 00:11:14,360 --> 00:11:18,000 Speaker 1: Capital management, and he's located in Boston and he beat 204 00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 1: the SMP last year by forty point seven percent. Peter, 205 00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:26,480 Speaker 1: how well, first of all, tell us how you did that, 206 00:11:26,679 --> 00:11:29,600 Speaker 1: and tell us if your strategy has changed in one 207 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:33,440 Speaker 1: I think we're doing a great job this year of 208 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:37,800 Speaker 1: distracting ourselves more really matters. More about that later, but listen, 209 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:41,640 Speaker 1: I did this by focusing on fifteen stocks. Fifteen stocks only, 210 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 1: long holding period, just common sense about what I think 211 00:11:46,440 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 1: is going to go up and value regardless of whether 212 00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 1: or not we had a lockdown or we're swinging from 213 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 1: the vines with an economic recovery. I picked stocks based 214 00:11:56,559 --> 00:12:00,920 Speaker 1: on fundamental outlooks and the demand that I or the 215 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:04,960 Speaker 1: coming uh for those industries. All right, Peter, you're a 216 00:12:04,960 --> 00:12:09,559 Speaker 1: long time value investor and that's certainly had its time 217 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 1: and sun here really since September. I would suggest give 218 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 1: us your sense for kind of the legs you think 219 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:21,720 Speaker 1: this trade has going forward. Well, you know, um, I 220 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:24,760 Speaker 1: am both a value and a growth investor. I wanted 221 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 1: to just clarify that, and um I actually kind of 222 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:30,920 Speaker 1: shunned those labels because, as I said, I just tried 223 00:12:30,920 --> 00:12:32,959 Speaker 1: to pick stocks that go up and as you know, 224 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 1: you know, all kinds of stocks go up. So what's 225 00:12:36,880 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 1: happening now though, is I think we've made the world 226 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:43,880 Speaker 1: too complex for our own understanding. You know, this relationship 227 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 1: we're seeing it this morning right when the market opened, 228 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:50,719 Speaker 1: this inverse relationship with the treasuries. When the yield goes up, 229 00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 1: the market goes down. Whoever thought of that? And why 230 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:57,040 Speaker 1: is that now the new narrative? I mean, I'm just 231 00:12:57,120 --> 00:13:00,319 Speaker 1: ignoring those, uh that dynamic and you know it's ainful 232 00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:02,840 Speaker 1: sometimes because let me put you to this way, if 233 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:05,440 Speaker 1: I sell the stock every time rates went up, I 234 00:13:05,440 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 1: wouldn't end up owning anything. So you've got to have 235 00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 1: a longer term perspective. And I also think that rates 236 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 1: are too low. I'm probably the only person out there 237 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 1: that's going to say this publicly, but we're on the 238 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:21,199 Speaker 1: We're going to embark on one of the greatest economic 239 00:13:21,240 --> 00:13:23,480 Speaker 1: recoveries of all time, right, I think we all can 240 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 1: agree upon that. And with a ten year you know, 241 00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:31,920 Speaker 1: hitting perhaps a two yield, I think that's absolutely fine 242 00:13:31,960 --> 00:13:34,400 Speaker 1: with me. In fact, you know, it hasn't been long 243 00:13:34,520 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 1: where we've seen a three percent yield. People need to 244 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 1: think about in perspective a great growth scenario, and you 245 00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:44,920 Speaker 1: do have to have yields going up. It's just part 246 00:13:44,920 --> 00:13:48,560 Speaker 1: of the calculus of the economics. I mean. The concern, 247 00:13:48,600 --> 00:13:52,079 Speaker 1: of course, is that we get with that great growth scenario, 248 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 1: great inflation um and that forces the Fed's hand. Are 249 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 1: you not worried as as Sharon Powell um uh calmed 250 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 1: you in terms of worrying about rate rises. Well, you know, 251 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: you asked how I got out to the forty plus 252 00:14:08,280 --> 00:14:11,240 Speaker 1: percent last year, and a lot of this stuff, um 253 00:14:11,240 --> 00:14:15,199 Speaker 1: it was all due respect to the chairman and other analysts. 254 00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 1: A lot of it is somewhat noise, and I think 255 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:21,640 Speaker 1: you have to factor it into a more complex picture, 256 00:14:22,120 --> 00:14:24,600 Speaker 1: you know. I do say some things are simple, but 257 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:27,960 Speaker 1: some things are complex, and in this case, you know, 258 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:32,600 Speaker 1: the FT is trying its best to calm h. What 259 00:14:32,680 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 1: I would say is a very emotional market, you know, 260 00:14:34,960 --> 00:14:38,360 Speaker 1: since the beginning of one I think everything changed. If 261 00:14:38,360 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 1: we look back to January and think of the narratives, 262 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:46,200 Speaker 1: you know, space travel, uh, spacts, all these kinds of 263 00:14:46,360 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 1: really newly focused areas. I think we have to put 264 00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:54,320 Speaker 1: that in perspective, as you do with the FED and 265 00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:57,680 Speaker 1: their narrative on rates. I do think the FED is 266 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: probably saying that they don't want you have this recovery 267 00:15:02,080 --> 00:15:05,320 Speaker 1: dampened at all. So it's very, very sensitive. But when 268 00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 1: you just strip all this way, what is driving this. 269 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 1: It's this pent up, huge recovery that we're going to have. 270 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 1: We're right on the brink of this, and I think 271 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 1: would be shameful for people to think that if rates 272 00:15:16,200 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: are going up, um, it's a bad time to invest 273 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 1: in growth stocks. All right, So what are some of 274 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:24,800 Speaker 1: the sectors that you think or or that you know 275 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:27,920 Speaker 1: you're putting some money to work in right now? Well, 276 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 1: you know, I've always liked and I continue to like, 277 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 1: you know, growth stocks. So in UM cyber security, that 278 00:15:35,880 --> 00:15:38,200 Speaker 1: is never going to go away, right So, I think 279 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:41,120 Speaker 1: last time we mentioned Palo Alto and cyber Arc, and 280 00:15:41,160 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 1: those are two companies that are dear to my heart, 281 00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 1: and I think regardless of what will happen rising rates, 282 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:52,280 Speaker 1: decreasing rates, you know, slowing development, whatever people want to 283 00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:54,880 Speaker 1: throw in terms of the narrative of the day, these 284 00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:57,960 Speaker 1: stocks are going to be survivors. The most recent stock 285 00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:00,640 Speaker 1: I added though, and I mentioned I did match and SPACs. 286 00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 1: You know, I'm negative on most SPACs that are startups 287 00:16:05,160 --> 00:16:07,320 Speaker 1: bacts in the sense that they buy companies that don't 288 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:09,600 Speaker 1: have any operating history. But there are plenty of companies 289 00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 1: out there that's back will buy that does have operating history. 290 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 1: And a company that I'm very excited about is called 291 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:22,000 Speaker 1: Danimer Scientific. They make biodegradable plastic. And I'm not um 292 00:16:22,040 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 1: an E s G investor, but when I do see 293 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:30,080 Speaker 1: a company that has a uh tremendously attractive product such 294 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:33,680 Speaker 1: as plastic the will biodegrade in your backyard, I do 295 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 1: get excited about that because the addressable market is so large. 296 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 1: So that is the most recent stock that I've added. 297 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 1: And other than that, I still own in video, uh, 298 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,800 Speaker 1: cybersecurity I mentioned, and data storage basic you know, the 299 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 1: basic building blocks of a starring economy. Hey, Peter, thanks 300 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 1: so much for joining us and sharing your thoughts here. 301 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 1: Peter Anderson, founder of Anderson Capital Management based in a Boston. 302 00:16:58,080 --> 00:17:02,440 Speaker 1: UH optimistic outlook on the market there, Um Matt and 303 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:05,399 Speaker 1: he's he kind of has a concentrated portfolio of names 304 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:09,080 Speaker 1: that again he thinks they're just good, solid names. Uh. 305 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:11,000 Speaker 1: And he's got some growth and some value in there. 306 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:12,800 Speaker 1: I hope we can get him back for a little 307 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:16,320 Speaker 1: bit longer. I mean, Peter Anderson went to Harvard and 308 00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:20,880 Speaker 1: Yale and he's an overseer of the Boston Symphony Orchestra, 309 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 1: and I do hope we can get back to Boston 310 00:17:23,160 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 1: for the Pops. Hopefully this fourth of July we can 311 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:32,760 Speaker 1: see them play live again in the Shell. Well. A big, 312 00:17:32,800 --> 00:17:37,120 Speaker 1: big trade in the railroad business. Canadian Pacific Railway agreed 313 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:40,360 Speaker 1: to buy Kansas City Southern for twenty five billion dollars, 314 00:17:40,400 --> 00:17:44,080 Speaker 1: creating the only network that cuts through the US, Mexico 315 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:47,280 Speaker 1: and Canada in the first year of those nations new 316 00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 1: trade alliance. Canadian Pacific Railway CEO Keith Creole spoke with 317 00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:54,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Ed Hammond earlier today and had this to say 318 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:58,360 Speaker 1: about the deal. With the common vision of common operating philosophy, 319 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:01,840 Speaker 1: creating a network that can become the true backbone connecting 320 00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:04,560 Speaker 1: three countries on the hills of the U S M 321 00:18:04,640 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 1: C agreement that enables commerce between the three companies, that 322 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:10,520 Speaker 1: at a time that the trade has never been more important, 323 00:18:10,840 --> 00:18:15,280 Speaker 1: is compelling. The benefits are compelling. That was Canadian Pacific 324 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 1: Railways CEO Keith A. Creole talking about the merits of 325 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:21,160 Speaker 1: that deal. Let's break it down with Lee Classical. Lee 326 00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:25,280 Speaker 1: is the senior transportation analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's been 327 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:28,440 Speaker 1: covering these railroad companies for decades. So Lee, thanks so 328 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:30,440 Speaker 1: much for joining us here. This deal, when you think 329 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,680 Speaker 1: about it from a geographic perspective, boy, it really makes 330 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,560 Speaker 1: a lot of sense, doesn't Yeah, Hey, Paul, thanks for 331 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:38,240 Speaker 1: having me on. Yeah, I mean yeah, we've been a 332 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 1: pro both East proponent of this deal for quite some time. Uh, 333 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:45,640 Speaker 1: it just makes complete sense. You know, the two railroads 334 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:48,600 Speaker 1: and only interchange in one spot. There's not a lot 335 00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:52,280 Speaker 1: of overlap of their network, and so you know, we 336 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:54,960 Speaker 1: don't see it as a huge issue for you know, 337 00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 1: hurting competition amongst the railroads and maybe other modes. I 338 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 1: think it's the net net in for the railroads because 339 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:05,040 Speaker 1: it's really expanding their reach and if you can keep 340 00:19:05,080 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 1: people on your network longer, that's not only good for 341 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:11,640 Speaker 1: your your bottom line, but it's also good for service 342 00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:15,440 Speaker 1: for customers because there's less interchanges happening, uh, and less 343 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 1: opportunity for things to go wrong, because that's usually what 344 00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:20,919 Speaker 1: it does. First of all, I want to say how 345 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 1: cool it is that we're talking about railroads Yeah. I 346 00:19:23,560 --> 00:19:27,679 Speaker 1: saw this pop up on my daybreak app on on 347 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 1: the weekend and I thought, wow, that is so old 348 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 1: economy and so cool. Such a big number too. Um, 349 00:19:33,520 --> 00:19:36,640 Speaker 1: are we gonna see more deals like this? Lee? I mean, 350 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:41,639 Speaker 1: we've seen a number of railroad stocks jump in reaction. Yeah. 351 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 1: The reality is probably not for a very long time. 352 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:48,560 Speaker 1: The industry is extremely consolidated. This will bring it to 353 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,560 Speaker 1: six class one rails. Those are the biggest railroads in 354 00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:55,600 Speaker 1: North America. Um. You know, maybe a longer term and 355 00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:58,440 Speaker 1: when I say longer term, ten plus years, you could 356 00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:02,440 Speaker 1: see an East marry a West, or maybe Canadian Nationals 357 00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 1: try to get deeper into the East. But you know, 358 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:10,879 Speaker 1: those kind of transactions will face extreme regulatory hurdles. Um. 359 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:13,120 Speaker 1: And it will not be easy to get done. I mean, 360 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 1: you know this deal is not is not a slam 361 00:20:15,080 --> 00:20:18,160 Speaker 1: dunk because it still needs you know, approval from the regulators. 362 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:19,919 Speaker 1: You know, we do think of the things I was 363 00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,719 Speaker 1: mentioned about earlier, about the fact that there's not a 364 00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:24,640 Speaker 1: lot of overlap with the networks, and we don't think 365 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 1: it's going to impact a competition in a negative way. 366 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:29,760 Speaker 1: You know, we think that the deal does get done 367 00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:32,280 Speaker 1: and also Kansas City was exempt for some of the 368 00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:36,200 Speaker 1: high hurdle rates that the STB has has has kind 369 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:40,080 Speaker 1: of implemented about the teen plus years ago. There is 370 00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:43,520 Speaker 1: some you know, risk that maybe the STB might revive 371 00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 1: revised those rules, but we still think, you know, the 372 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:50,800 Speaker 1: probabilities that the deal does get done. Lee, talk to 373 00:20:50,880 --> 00:20:53,040 Speaker 1: us about some of the business you expect to go 374 00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:57,159 Speaker 1: over this railroad, you know, once they get combined. Here 375 00:20:57,160 --> 00:21:01,640 Speaker 1: as we think about Canada, the US and Mexico. Yeah, 376 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,400 Speaker 1: so you know, the reality is is that they are 377 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:08,919 Speaker 1: creating the kind of transportation network for the future. I 378 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:11,200 Speaker 1: know that's sounds silly when we're talking about old world 379 00:21:11,280 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 1: economy railroads, but you know, we're we're one of our 380 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:18,560 Speaker 1: major long term thesis is that you know, we're going 381 00:21:18,640 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 1: to see a lot more on shoring into Mexico, UH, 382 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:26,040 Speaker 1: given UH shippers wanting to be closer to their customers 383 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,640 Speaker 1: and the fact that they want to diversify away from 384 00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:32,600 Speaker 1: from Asia and China, you know, given that trade issues 385 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:36,640 Speaker 1: are going to probably continue between the U S and China. UM. 386 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:39,639 Speaker 1: And so you know, you have Canada with all the 387 00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:43,399 Speaker 1: great natural resources. You have the US that consume a 388 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,800 Speaker 1: lot of stuff and then you have Mexico increasing their 389 00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:50,840 Speaker 1: manufacturing footprint, so it just seems like it's just a 390 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: great deal for future growth. Um. You know, there's one 391 00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,520 Speaker 1: of one of the great things about the KSU network 392 00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,159 Speaker 1: again to the Southern network is their cross board or 393 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:03,520 Speaker 1: business that's been a high growth area for the railroad 394 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,119 Speaker 1: and you know, we can we expect back to continue 395 00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 1: as more and more stuff are manufactured you south to 396 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,920 Speaker 1: the border of the US. Lee. Is there any cutting 397 00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 1: edge aspect to the research, I mean, to the to 398 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:19,560 Speaker 1: the industry that you research. I mean, is there any 399 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 1: kind of hyperloop or you know, um, super green people 400 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:27,240 Speaker 1: carrier uh stuff going on? Or is it all still 401 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,919 Speaker 1: old school railroad? Yeah? Outside of me working on a 402 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:35,480 Speaker 1: teleporting machine in my shed. H there's really there's really not. 403 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:40,720 Speaker 1: Uh the reality is it like railroads good if you 404 00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:44,080 Speaker 1: think about operate without people because I mean they're on 405 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 1: a fixed track, so that there's some of the safety 406 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:50,000 Speaker 1: issues of autonomous trucking doesn't really apply to railroads. There 407 00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,960 Speaker 1: is a benefit to having people in the locomotive, you know, 408 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,199 Speaker 1: in case something goes wrong or you know, you need 409 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,959 Speaker 1: to deal with an exemption. But there's no there's not 410 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 1: really any any any any out there. The rails are 411 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:05,760 Speaker 1: tinkering more with alternative fuels and that's really a kind 412 00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:07,880 Speaker 1: of a push to try to you know, be more 413 00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,920 Speaker 1: green and reduced her carbon footprint. Uh. You know, it's 414 00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:13,880 Speaker 1: a lot of the railroads and I would say even 415 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,440 Speaker 1: the trucking companies and you know, companies like FedEx and 416 00:23:16,560 --> 00:23:19,560 Speaker 1: ups have really started to embrace the E S G 417 00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:22,840 Speaker 1: aspect of their businesses just because it's becoming more and 418 00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:28,160 Speaker 1: more important to institutional investors out there. Uh, real quick here, 419 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 1: precision railroading is important to this deal. Yeah, it is. 420 00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:34,879 Speaker 1: I mean, so Canadians to fix to have more of 421 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 1: a mature position scheduling railroading. They've been doing it for 422 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:40,920 Speaker 1: a long time. They've pivoted towards growth a couple of 423 00:23:41,000 --> 00:23:43,439 Speaker 1: years ago in Kansas City is kind of in the 424 00:23:43,520 --> 00:23:46,960 Speaker 1: early uh inning And if you think about it, a 425 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,000 Speaker 1: lot of the folks to Kansas City, they've done really 426 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 1: at Kansas City Southern they've done a really good job 427 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:55,160 Speaker 1: at implementing ps ARE. But they can learn a lot 428 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,920 Speaker 1: from the kind of the doing it for a lot 429 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:02,320 Speaker 1: longer over at DP. So you we believe that because 430 00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:05,000 Speaker 1: of PP taking over at KS too, which won't happen 431 00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:08,040 Speaker 1: for probably a year in terms of an operation standpoint, 432 00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:11,720 Speaker 1: but they might be able to accelerate uh that's mark 433 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:15,880 Speaker 1: transformation and just leave five in additional synergies. Lee, Thanks 434 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,840 Speaker 1: so much, Lee Clasgow, their senior transport logistics and shipping 435 00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 1: analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 436 00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:26,000 Speaker 1: Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews of 437 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:30,840 Speaker 1: Apple podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. 438 00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:34,720 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller V three, pt on 439 00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:37,920 Speaker 1: Fall Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney Before the podcast. 440 00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,680 Speaker 1: You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio