1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,559 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am. 3 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,239 Speaker 1: He's done on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the 4 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:26,800 Speaker 2: One of the big losers in today's sessions so far 7 00:00:27,080 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 2: is Nike, down nine and a half percent right now. 8 00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:32,519 Speaker 2: Quite a bit going on there, so let's bring in 9 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:35,159 Speaker 2: put inm. Goyel, the senior US e commerce and retail 10 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:36,880 Speaker 2: analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. 11 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 3: Nike is in turnaround mode. 12 00:00:39,960 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 2: Elliott Hill is no longer a new CEO, He's just 13 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 2: the CEO because he's been there for about a year. 14 00:00:45,120 --> 00:00:48,599 Speaker 2: How is his effort to turn this company around shaping up? 15 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:52,600 Speaker 4: I think his efforts to turn the US businesses shaping 16 00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 4: up quite nicely. We are seeing momentum rebuild it in 17 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:58,840 Speaker 4: the US. The issue is outside of the United States 18 00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:03,319 Speaker 4: and China US to where sales have really plunged, and 19 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:06,840 Speaker 4: we don't think that they can, you know, quickly rebound 20 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 4: those sales anytime soon. It may be a twenty twenty 21 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 4: seven story to see any resurgence in China. 22 00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:18,040 Speaker 5: If that, what is the issue in China? Is it 23 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 5: their brand specific? Is it the Chinese consumer? What's going 24 00:01:21,120 --> 00:01:21,479 Speaker 5: on there? 25 00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:26,319 Speaker 4: I think the biggest issue is brand specific. So unlike 26 00:01:26,400 --> 00:01:30,120 Speaker 4: in the US, the Nike brand isn't perceived as a 27 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:33,600 Speaker 4: higher and athletic brand. In fact, it's way too much 28 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:37,120 Speaker 4: an off price and at discount. So the brand needs 29 00:01:37,160 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 4: to build brand momentum and brand heat. And yes, the 30 00:01:40,080 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 4: Chinese consumer isn't particularly you know, on its best feet 31 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 4: right now. But if you compare what's happening in China 32 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 4: and you look at Liulle Lemon, Liulle Lemon has had 33 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:53,000 Speaker 4: outstanding results in China, much smaller, but you know, they've 34 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:55,160 Speaker 4: been able to do really well there. So Nike really 35 00:01:55,240 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 4: just needs to get stuff together when it comes to product, 36 00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 4: branding and marketing in that region. 37 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 2: What is the playbook for that? Have they detailed, have 38 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:08,239 Speaker 2: they outlined something that sounds reasonable or is it kind 39 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:09,960 Speaker 2: of still throwing things at the wall. 40 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 4: I think the playbook will be similar to what they 41 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:16,480 Speaker 4: did in the US. The first thing that they've done 42 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 4: so far and we'll see how that works out, is 43 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:23,959 Speaker 4: changed the reporting structure, so now all regions report directly 44 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 4: into Elliott Hill, so I guess he just has more 45 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 4: authority over those regions, seeing things you know firsthand. The 46 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:32,520 Speaker 4: other thing that they're going to try to do is 47 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 4: just clean house there, right. They have to get rid 48 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:38,799 Speaker 4: of the inventory that's just not speaking to the customers 49 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 4: and has been aged for some time. They have to 50 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:44,119 Speaker 4: get out of off price, and they have to stop discounting. 51 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 4: And then once you get a new product to flow in, 52 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:49,720 Speaker 4: you get the right brand message across. It's retail playbook 53 00:02:49,760 --> 00:02:52,359 Speaker 4: one oh one. They just need to execute. So execution 54 00:02:52,560 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 4: is huge here. 55 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:56,440 Speaker 5: Talk to us about the Converse brand within the Nike 56 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 5: household there, so. 57 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:02,360 Speaker 4: The yes, you know, the commerce brand, Yes, it's struggling, 58 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:05,239 Speaker 4: but to me, it's less of a concern than China. 59 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 4: The brand is less than ten percent of their total 60 00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:11,960 Speaker 4: revenues from what we see, and while sales are down, 61 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 4: and while it is a brand that we'd like Nike 62 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:17,600 Speaker 4: to see step up, especially when it comes to lifestyle, 63 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 4: other companies have done particularly well there. We'd say the focus. 64 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:23,320 Speaker 4: You know, if I needed them to put focus on 65 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 4: one thing first, it would be China right now, Converse 66 00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:28,080 Speaker 4: after that, And that's what we're looking for. 67 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 2: And I know that there's been a lot of discussion 68 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 2: between performance and lifestyle over at Nike. What is the 69 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:39,120 Speaker 2: path forward for Nike? I mean, has it chosen performance 70 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 2: across all of its markets or are some markets better 71 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 2: for performance versus lifestyle. 72 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 4: So they're sticking to performance, and I think that's the 73 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:52,120 Speaker 4: right choice because performance is what Nike is about. It 74 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:54,720 Speaker 4: is what drives the sports momentum. What we'd like to 75 00:03:54,760 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 4: see happen is that performance turns into lifestyle. So a 76 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 4: lot of shoes that are worn for the sport, for 77 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 4: the game have become lifestyle shoes too. So that's the 78 00:04:04,320 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 4: natural shift that we'd like to see with the new 79 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:07,960 Speaker 4: innovation that Nike is launching. 80 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:12,080 Speaker 5: So we have some experience now nine months, ten months, 81 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 5: eleven months of just teriff discussion. 82 00:04:15,320 --> 00:04:15,600 Speaker 6: Woon. 83 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 5: I think you were one of the first analysts we 84 00:04:17,279 --> 00:04:19,039 Speaker 5: talked to to say, oh boy, what's this going to 85 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:21,600 Speaker 5: mean for various industries? What does it mean for the 86 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,920 Speaker 5: at your business, the ath leisure business, kind of the 87 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:28,040 Speaker 5: Nikes of the world, the Adidas is of the world. 88 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, so footwear is largely important into the US, and 89 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 4: so are the peril When you think the athletic work space, 90 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 4: notably the footwear. It's predominantly made in Vietnam, and the 91 00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:42,280 Speaker 4: current tariff there is twenty percent. It will have an 92 00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 4: impact on margins. In fact, Nike's gross margin if you 93 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 4: look at it, even what was recently reported, more than 94 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:50,640 Speaker 4: half of it was due to tariffs and saying with 95 00:04:50,680 --> 00:04:55,000 Speaker 4: their guidance, So I think twenty percent exposure. They are 96 00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:59,719 Speaker 4: increasing prices selectively. They probably will have more efforts and 97 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 4: play in twenty twenty six, that's calendar twenty twenty six 98 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 4: to mitigate some of this, but it's not going entirely away. 99 00:05:05,560 --> 00:05:07,280 Speaker 4: It is a headband to margin. 100 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:12,640 Speaker 7: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 101 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 102 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 103 00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:26,599 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you 104 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 105 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:33,359 Speaker 5: All right, a bell Weather for some including myself, for 106 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 5: the US economy is FedEx f d X is the 107 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 5: ticker they reported some numbers stock trading a little bit 108 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 5: lower here. They have some issues with some of their aircraft, 109 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:46,200 Speaker 5: but I don't know. I kind of think it's just 110 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:50,040 Speaker 5: an awesome company. The stock is up about that's about 111 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:51,840 Speaker 5: flat this year. Hasn't really done anything here, but it's 112 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 5: got a market cap of sixty seven billion dollars. I've 113 00:05:53,680 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 5: always been a big fan of FedEx. The MD eleven 114 00:05:57,400 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 5: is a great aircraft, but it's an old aircraft and 115 00:05:59,440 --> 00:06:02,040 Speaker 5: they have and reliance on that. Leek Clasgow does this 116 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 5: stuff for a living, Senior Transport Logistics and Chipping analys 117 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 5: for Bloomberg Intelligence Lee. 118 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:08,960 Speaker 7: Now, FedEx reported some numbers. What did you learn? 119 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 8: Well, I mean their second quarter they performed pretty well, 120 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 8: and you know, they gave us some color about the 121 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 8: peak season peak season from an average daily volume growth, 122 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 8: they're looking at mid single digits that could increase too 123 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:29,160 Speaker 8: high single digits because there's one extra operating day in 124 00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:31,160 Speaker 8: the quarter or during a peak. 125 00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 6: Season, I should say. 126 00:06:32,560 --> 00:06:35,039 Speaker 8: So, you know, they seem to be executing on their 127 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:38,479 Speaker 8: restructuring plan. The problem is is that in their second 128 00:06:38,560 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 8: half they're going to be having a lot of headwinds 129 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 8: that they're going to have to deal with. And those 130 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:49,599 Speaker 8: headwinds relate to, you know, higher variable compensation expenses and 131 00:06:49,839 --> 00:06:52,720 Speaker 8: a less than truckload market. Which they're the biggest player 132 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 8: in that market that has been pretty depressed over the 133 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 8: last couple of quarters. 134 00:06:57,480 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 6: And it's can probably continue to be depressed. 135 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 8: And then you have, as you mentioned, the grounding of 136 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 8: their MD eleven fleet following the tragic accident of a 137 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 8: UPS plane. 138 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:09,360 Speaker 6: A couple of weeks ago. 139 00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 8: So you know, you add those three things up plus 140 00:07:13,080 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 8: some other things, it's about a six hundred million headwind 141 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 8: to its earning. So they have to deal with that 142 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:22,000 Speaker 8: in some of the restructuring that they've done. Probably you know, 143 00:07:22,040 --> 00:07:24,440 Speaker 8: you're probably not going to see hit the bottom line 144 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 8: at least really directly until they're twenty twenty seven. 145 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:33,000 Speaker 2: So the six hundred million dollar charge clearly not impressing investors, 146 00:07:33,920 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 2: even with the beat in the quarter that ended. Is 147 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 2: this a one time thing or is this something that 148 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 2: could drag out beyond the second half of this year 149 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 2: next year? 150 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:43,280 Speaker 7: Excuse me? 151 00:07:44,200 --> 00:07:47,600 Speaker 8: Yeah, So on the MD elevens, I think expectations are, 152 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 8: you know, they should be back in service sometime. 153 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 6: Early next year. I don't really know. 154 00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,280 Speaker 8: Exactly when that's going to happen, but so you could 155 00:07:55,360 --> 00:08:00,920 Speaker 8: view that as a kind of a year term headwindable compensation. 156 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 8: You know that also is against difficult comparisons, so that's 157 00:08:05,880 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 8: also short term in nature and not something that can continue. 158 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 8: The biggest unknown for me, at least is the less 159 00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:16,720 Speaker 8: than truckload demand. The ISM Manufacturing index, which has been 160 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 8: contraction territory for thirty five at the last thirty seven months, 161 00:08:21,720 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 8: is indicating that less than truckload demand, which is mostly 162 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 8: industrial manufacturing, is going to continue to be weak in 163 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:34,520 Speaker 8: the coming months ahead because that index, the ISM index, 164 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 8: is really a bell weather to an early indicator of 165 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:40,120 Speaker 8: where LTL demand is heading. 166 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:41,040 Speaker 9: Lee. 167 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 5: As you know, I am an expert on trucking. I 168 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,560 Speaker 5: know what LTL means and TL means. I was I 169 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 5: had no idea that FedEx was the largest LTL provider. 170 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:52,199 Speaker 5: Do you like them that they're in that business or 171 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 5: would you rather them farm it out to somebody. 172 00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 8: Well that's a great question, Paul, because they're planning on 173 00:08:57,520 --> 00:08:58,079 Speaker 8: spinning that. 174 00:08:58,040 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 6: Out in June of next year. Uh yeah, there you go. 175 00:09:02,920 --> 00:09:07,080 Speaker 8: You know. They the argument always was that, you know, 176 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:10,600 Speaker 8: maybe they could cross L their lt L and get 177 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:17,560 Speaker 8: more profitable parcel business. That model really might have not 178 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:21,000 Speaker 8: played out as much as as as they hoped, and 179 00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 8: so they also hope to get a better valuation because 180 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 8: that lt L business, while it's been pretty depressed, they 181 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 8: it does trade at a higher higher multiples, uh, and 182 00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:33,439 Speaker 8: so they're trying to unlock kind of some. 183 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:34,520 Speaker 6: Of the value there. 184 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:37,600 Speaker 8: So you know, it'll be pretty interesting to see how 185 00:09:37,640 --> 00:09:41,240 Speaker 8: that company operates as a standalone provider. That industry is 186 00:09:41,280 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 8: pretty consolidated and has a lot of pricing discipline, and 187 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:46,520 Speaker 8: we just hope that, you know, once FedEx Freight gets 188 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 8: out there and they're on their own, they're not going 189 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,920 Speaker 8: to try to use pricing to to you know, gain share. 190 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:53,200 Speaker 6: But we would note they. 191 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 8: Are still the largest player, so it's not like they're 192 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:58,040 Speaker 8: looking to uh to gain a lot of share anyway. 193 00:09:58,120 --> 00:10:00,200 Speaker 8: So but you know, it will be an interest thing 194 00:10:00,800 --> 00:10:03,679 Speaker 8: to see once that once that gets spun. 195 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:04,360 Speaker 6: Out in June. 196 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 2: You know, I'm looking Paul, excuse me, Lee and looking 197 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 2: at Paul and talking to Lee. In the past six months, 198 00:10:11,440 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 2: FedEx chairs up about twenty nine percent total return versus 199 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 2: ups up up almost six percent. Can you compare and 200 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:23,319 Speaker 2: contrast their approach to some of the macro challenges that 201 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:25,079 Speaker 2: faces the industry. 202 00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:29,319 Speaker 8: Yeah, so they're both in the process of restructuring their 203 00:10:29,360 --> 00:10:32,120 Speaker 8: networks to deal with the new realities that you know, 204 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 8: B two C or e commerce is really where the 205 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:37,640 Speaker 8: growth is going to come from. And these networks were 206 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,480 Speaker 8: created a long, long time ago with the idea that 207 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:44,160 Speaker 8: you know, a carrier would go to a lawyer's office 208 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 8: with one hundred envelopes, drop off those envelopes and pick 209 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:51,200 Speaker 8: up fifty envelopes, and that density really can drive profitability 210 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:53,680 Speaker 8: where you know, as you know, if you get like 211 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:58,120 Speaker 8: you know, if you order rubber bands from Amazon, that 212 00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 8: one package that goes to your doorstep is a lot 213 00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:04,800 Speaker 8: more expensive to deliver. So they're just dealing with that 214 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:08,160 Speaker 8: reality and they've been slow to kind of change their networks. 215 00:11:08,440 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 8: And UPS and FedEx are both in that process. You know, 216 00:11:12,280 --> 00:11:15,440 Speaker 8: UPS has done things a little earlier, I would say, 217 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 8: and you know whether it is you they spun out 218 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:22,480 Speaker 8: or I should say, sold their less than truckloaw business, 219 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:25,559 Speaker 8: the TFI, a Canadian provider, you know. 220 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:27,600 Speaker 6: A couple of years ago. 221 00:11:27,679 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 8: They're all looking to try to gain more share of 222 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:35,079 Speaker 8: the small and medium size shippers and get away from 223 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:38,720 Speaker 8: the large shippers like Amazon, which really aren't that profitable. 224 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:41,680 Speaker 7: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up. 225 00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:49,440 Speaker 1: After this, you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch 226 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay 227 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 1: and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on 228 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 229 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:00,120 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 230 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 7: Scarlette, I have breaking news. You may want to get 231 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 7: the red headline ready for this one. 232 00:12:05,160 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 3: Okay, tell me today. 233 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:09,959 Speaker 7: I put a deposit down on my first cruise ever. 234 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:11,360 Speaker 3: What called to this? 235 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,800 Speaker 7: Well, my partner, my girlfriend, she's we're going, we're. 236 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:17,319 Speaker 5: Doing it in Fallwell, I just told you Viking Cruise. Yeah, basically, 237 00:12:17,400 --> 00:12:20,600 Speaker 5: Viking Cruise is your France in the fall. 238 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:22,079 Speaker 3: And how are you feeling about this? 239 00:12:22,160 --> 00:12:22,960 Speaker 7: I'm a little nervous. 240 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 5: But it's baby steps, she says. It's not like a 241 00:12:25,040 --> 00:12:27,200 Speaker 5: big carnival cruise. We got like five thousand people on. 242 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:29,000 Speaker 5: It's a little riverboat, you know, kind of cruise. 243 00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 2: Okay, so in two years we should look for you 244 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:31,920 Speaker 2: on a carnival crue could. 245 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 7: Be, could be. But that brings us to our next guest. 246 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 7: I mean, Brian Egger. 247 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:37,319 Speaker 5: He's writing the research note right now as we speak. 248 00:12:37,360 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 5: Sweeney in the cruise business. Brian Eigger, he's a senior 249 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:42,400 Speaker 5: gaming and lodging analysts for Bloomberg Intelligence, Brian, we had 250 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:44,360 Speaker 5: Carnival Cruise Lines reported some numbers today. 251 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 7: What did they have to say? 252 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:49,200 Speaker 10: Yeah, So, I mean the fourth quarter, the fiscal fourth 253 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 10: quarter editor Vember three, was a pretty decent quarter in 254 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:55,199 Speaker 10: truth of yeel growth. And I think more importantly, going 255 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:58,560 Speaker 10: to next year, they are expecting to see about two 256 00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:02,240 Speaker 10: percent the yield growth or so with good cost control. 257 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:06,600 Speaker 10: And that's encouraging because there were some concerns that industry 258 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:10,360 Speaker 10: growth of supply, particularly in the Caribbean, not by Carnival 259 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:14,320 Speaker 10: but by its competitors, might dampen your growth going to 260 00:13:14,400 --> 00:13:18,040 Speaker 10: next year. So while there's still some uncertainty, I think overall, 261 00:13:18,080 --> 00:13:21,000 Speaker 10: the takeaway was fairly encouraging on that front. 262 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:25,840 Speaker 2: How much of their business depends on converting people like 263 00:13:25,920 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 2: Paul Sweeney from a never cruiser to a maybe cruiser 264 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:33,800 Speaker 2: to a you know, a reliable cruiser, basically increasing their 265 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:36,079 Speaker 2: market share with bringing in new customers. 266 00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:39,680 Speaker 10: Yeah, Historically it's been a big factor in North America, 267 00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:42,679 Speaker 10: trying to track that first time cruise customer. It's far 268 00:13:42,760 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 10: less penetrated than other forms of vacationing. That's even more 269 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 10: true if you go into other parts of the world 270 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:51,960 Speaker 10: like Europe and Asia, but it's definitely part of that 271 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:54,319 Speaker 10: that first time customer. On the other hand, you know 272 00:13:54,400 --> 00:13:57,319 Speaker 10: much what they do depends on loyalty programs and getting 273 00:13:57,400 --> 00:13:58,520 Speaker 10: repeat business as well. 274 00:13:59,400 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 5: So Brian give us that the consumer's kind of wavering 275 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:05,960 Speaker 5: a little bit there. I mean, the ke shaped economy. 276 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 5: How does a cruise industry deal with that? Because I 277 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 5: know there's different tiers of cruising out there. How do 278 00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 5: you see that in the cruise business? 279 00:14:15,800 --> 00:14:16,439 Speaker 6: I mean, if you go. 280 00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 10: Back historically, the cruise industry is moderate recyclical who probably 281 00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 10: yield to be more resilient than for example, business travel 282 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 10: oriented hotel room rates. So you know, there was some 283 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 10: obviously some vulnerability. But that being said, the leisure consumer, 284 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 10: the leisure consumer of travel, has been really resilient. It 285 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 10: held up extremely well throughout this period of economic uncertainty. Historically, 286 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:45,600 Speaker 10: passenger growth has kept up with supply. I mean, the 287 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 10: goodness for Carnival, they've only looking at about one percent 288 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:51,840 Speaker 10: supply growth in twenty twenty six. There's certainly more coming 289 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 10: from their competitors, but you know that's ply out for 290 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 10: them specifically, is a healthy backdrop even if we do 291 00:14:58,480 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 10: see a step back and consumer spend. 292 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 2: Speaking of their competitors, I'm just looking at a comparison chart 293 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 2: of all the big cruise operators, and Paul's Viking is 294 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 2: up about sixty four percent so far this year, Carnival 295 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 2: up about twenty three percent, Norwegian Cruise Line down eleven percent, 296 00:15:14,680 --> 00:15:16,560 Speaker 2: and roll Career being up thirty percent. 297 00:15:17,280 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 3: How are their strategies different? 298 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 2: I mean, for those who don't cruise, it might seem 299 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 2: like they're all one and the same. 300 00:15:22,480 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 10: Yeah, I think there are different ways you could interpret 301 00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 10: those disparities in stock price performance. But I think the 302 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 10: way I think about it is Viking is certainly very 303 00:15:30,400 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 10: focused on the luxury kind of niche cruz segment. 304 00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:34,440 Speaker 3: Paul fancy. 305 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 10: Good good for Paul, and I think generally speaking that 306 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:42,040 Speaker 10: part of the business is held up well. You know, 307 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 10: Carnival probably is maybe gained some note because it's done 308 00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 10: a good job at achieving its return on investment capital goals, 309 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 10: done so sooner to get to that twelve percent range 310 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,160 Speaker 10: than they expected, and because they've got so little supply growth, 311 00:15:58,200 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 10: that does provide a little bit more conservativism. But you know, 312 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 10: there are certainly some differences across the brands. 313 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:08,560 Speaker 5: All right, Brian, how are my friends on the strip 314 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:10,120 Speaker 5: in Vegas doing these days? 315 00:16:10,880 --> 00:16:12,800 Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean Vegas is finishing up the year with 316 00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:16,280 Speaker 10: modest growth, but it's been a tough It was a 317 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,440 Speaker 10: tough summer period in Las Vegas, particularly kind of the 318 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 10: mid market segment. Much like I said about cruising, the 319 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:29,640 Speaker 10: high end business, high end hotel business, what oriented demand 320 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:33,320 Speaker 10: is held up better, but the mid market, midweek demand 321 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:37,880 Speaker 10: during kind of shoulder periods, and the mid market has 322 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 10: experienced some disruption, probably because of construction, probably because of 323 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 10: difficult comparisons, probably because we are saying that luxury into 324 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:47,320 Speaker 10: the market holding up a bit better. 325 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:51,880 Speaker 2: So is everyone then going to double down on chasing 326 00:16:51,920 --> 00:16:53,120 Speaker 2: after the luxury customer. 327 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:58,440 Speaker 10: It really depends on what part of the business companies 328 00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:00,680 Speaker 10: are in. On balance win, which is more high end 329 00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:04,880 Speaker 10: has performed better in terms of its rep part, let's say, 330 00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 10: in Las Vegas, than some of its rivals. But you 331 00:17:07,280 --> 00:17:11,199 Speaker 10: know those are these Obviously these trends shift. But I 332 00:17:11,240 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 10: think that's been notable across the leisure travel sector is 333 00:17:15,280 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 10: the relative out performance of luxury high end with perhaps 334 00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 10: a little bit more challenging comparisons and difficult conditions for 335 00:17:24,400 --> 00:17:28,280 Speaker 10: kind of the the mass market or those dependent on 336 00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:30,199 Speaker 10: other sources of business. 337 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 2: And we know that these gaming companies, these casino companies 338 00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:35,399 Speaker 2: rely a lot more on China than they do on 339 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:37,760 Speaker 2: the strip. Overall, how's Macau looking for them? 340 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,240 Speaker 10: So, I mean mcaw has been recovering, you know, the 341 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 10: particularly the what we call kind of the mass business 342 00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:48,600 Speaker 10: in Macau that has some mantle ory effect on Lallas 343 00:17:48,720 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 10: Vegas as well, although you know, low luck levels and 344 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:56,200 Speaker 10: back right in Vegas have been a bit bit soft 345 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 10: in some periods this year. But you know that business 346 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 10: is certainly coming back in Macow. It's coming back a 347 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:07,040 Speaker 10: lot after obviously the pandemic. It's a different type of business. 348 00:18:07,760 --> 00:18:10,919 Speaker 7: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 349 00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 350 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,680 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and Android 351 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:25,000 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 352 00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:28,160 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 353 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:30,919 Speaker 5: A news story that's got a lot of people's attention, 354 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:34,200 Speaker 5: like my kids are paying attention. TikTok is being bought 355 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:36,639 Speaker 5: by a group of buyers led by Oracle Corporation, with 356 00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 5: the company and byte Dance signing binding agreements to create 357 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:44,400 Speaker 5: a US joint venture. I don't care, but a lot 358 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 5: of people do. Man Deeve Sing, senior tech analysts for 359 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,440 Speaker 5: Bloomberg Intelligence, joins us Mandy talk to us about. 360 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:49,879 Speaker 7: This structure here. 361 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 5: I know that the government was either to bite Dance, 362 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:55,520 Speaker 5: which the Chinese company either sell this sing or shut 363 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:59,440 Speaker 5: it down. Does this is satisfying kind of the requirement here? 364 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,640 Speaker 9: I think so. And look, the main point of contention 365 00:19:03,960 --> 00:19:07,800 Speaker 9: was the algorithm, so clearly you know there is a 366 00:19:07,880 --> 00:19:11,879 Speaker 9: decoupling of that versus the app. And you know, in 367 00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:16,760 Speaker 9: terms of the ownership, Oracle was the most likely sort 368 00:19:16,760 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 9: of candidate when it comes to leading this joint venture, 369 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 9: and that turned out to be the case. So from 370 00:19:24,720 --> 00:19:28,840 Speaker 9: that perspective, I do think this should be palatable to 371 00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,720 Speaker 9: both the US and the Chinese government. 372 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:35,560 Speaker 2: Although we don't know if the Chinese regulators will definitely 373 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 2: prove it right. They have yet to say whether they'll 374 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:38,600 Speaker 2: be this transaction. 375 00:19:39,280 --> 00:19:42,040 Speaker 9: I mean, we've seen that many times a lut can 376 00:19:42,119 --> 00:19:45,960 Speaker 9: go wrong, but in this case, at least, you know, 377 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,480 Speaker 9: the joint venture that was formed here had the blessing 378 00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 9: of the US government. So it sounds like, you know, 379 00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:59,040 Speaker 9: this was the intended proposal, and that's how it turned 380 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 9: out to be in terms of by dance, you know, 381 00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:06,080 Speaker 9: agreeing to sell the app to this joint venture. 382 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 5: What I like about this is it includes silver Like 383 00:20:08,640 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 5: and from my money, the baseball my career, the smartest 384 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:14,880 Speaker 5: technology pe money out there by far is Silverlake. 385 00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:17,440 Speaker 7: Some really smart folks there, So if they're involved, it's 386 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:18,640 Speaker 7: got to be a good deal. That's how I look 387 00:20:18,680 --> 00:20:18,919 Speaker 7: at it. 388 00:20:19,480 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 5: Mandy talk to us about like what the competitors are 389 00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:27,119 Speaker 5: thinking here. Is TikTok still as formidable going forward? Do 390 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 5: you think as it has been? 391 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,359 Speaker 9: Not really? I mean, if you look at the rund 392 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:37,320 Speaker 9: rate of Instagram reels, they have surpassed fifty billion dollars 393 00:20:37,320 --> 00:20:41,280 Speaker 9: in run rate. That would have been unimaginable given the 394 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 9: kind of lead TikTok had over Instagram, and Instagram reels 395 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:49,200 Speaker 9: came from behind, and now they have a fifty billion 396 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 9: dollar rundrate. Same thing with YouTube shorts. They have an 397 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:59,400 Speaker 9: engagement share that's almost surpassed TikTok at this point of time. So, 398 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 9: you know, the last couple of years, TikTok seems to 399 00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:08,000 Speaker 9: have lost them when it comes to the pace at 400 00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:11,160 Speaker 9: which they were adding users and the engagement growth, et cetera. 401 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:15,119 Speaker 9: And if I had to ballpark, you know, the US 402 00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:18,920 Speaker 9: revenue of TikTok would not be you know, over twelve 403 00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:23,200 Speaker 9: to fifteen billion dollars. So Reels being fifty billion dollars 404 00:21:23,240 --> 00:21:25,880 Speaker 9: just goes to show what kind of a missed opportunity 405 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:26,920 Speaker 9: that was for TikTok. 406 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:27,680 Speaker 3: Interesting. 407 00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:31,080 Speaker 2: So what does this mean for Meta, which owns Instagram 408 00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:34,240 Speaker 2: and Reels and of course is now firmly in the 409 00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 2: lead and is no longer playing catchup to TikTok. 410 00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:41,800 Speaker 9: I mean a lot of this, you know, revenue ramp 411 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:45,479 Speaker 9: up for Reels was driven by the fact that you know, 412 00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:50,240 Speaker 9: Facebook or Meta had a better AD stack and they 413 00:21:50,440 --> 00:21:54,200 Speaker 9: kept you know, improving that with more personalization. Now with 414 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:58,200 Speaker 9: applying generative AI on top of that, that has helped 415 00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:02,359 Speaker 9: them with ad pricing. So these are incremental things where 416 00:22:03,160 --> 00:22:07,159 Speaker 9: TikTok you know, couldn't even keep its algorithm. So the 417 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:10,560 Speaker 9: fact that you know, they have to redo the algorithm, 418 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:15,520 Speaker 9: redo the ad part, the personalization part, is likely the 419 00:22:15,560 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 9: reason why their AD revenue hasn't ramped up and it's 420 00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:22,439 Speaker 9: going to take them a while. Even if you know 421 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:26,640 Speaker 9: this joint venture would start putting money into the company 422 00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:30,640 Speaker 9: to you know, improve its algorithm and personalization. I don't 423 00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:33,719 Speaker 9: think it's going to happen that quickly in terms of 424 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,120 Speaker 9: where they were, you know, two three years back. 425 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:39,960 Speaker 5: Should we expect this new joint venture to maybe go 426 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:41,080 Speaker 5: public at some point. 427 00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:47,960 Speaker 9: Still early days, I would say, given the algorithm changes 428 00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 9: a big one. I mean, you have to even though 429 00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:53,160 Speaker 9: you know users are used to coming to the app, 430 00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:56,359 Speaker 9: you have the traffic, but we know in the world 431 00:22:56,400 --> 00:23:01,080 Speaker 9: of AI, it's about personalization, It's about that recommendation system, 432 00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:05,440 Speaker 9: and you know, rewriting the algorithm. I do think it's 433 00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:07,560 Speaker 9: going to take a while, and it comes down to, 434 00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,480 Speaker 9: you know, what kind of talent they can attract into 435 00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,880 Speaker 9: this new entity. So a lot has to go right 436 00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:18,159 Speaker 9: before you know, we can look at this joint venture 437 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:19,440 Speaker 9: going public anytime soon. 438 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:21,080 Speaker 3: That would be really interesting. 439 00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,000 Speaker 5: I'm still going to go make the pitch if I'm 440 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,680 Speaker 5: our bank ground, be right on the doorstep today, no doubt. 441 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:28,320 Speaker 5: I want to be the first guy there and saying 442 00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:29,560 Speaker 5: let's take this in public. 443 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:30,399 Speaker 7: Here's what you need to do. 444 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,240 Speaker 3: And you think they're ready. This is something that they 445 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:33,639 Speaker 3: want to do. 446 00:23:34,359 --> 00:23:35,840 Speaker 7: I don't know. I would think so. I mean I 447 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:37,000 Speaker 7: can bring a lot of money. 448 00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:40,880 Speaker 9: The administration ORCO would focus a lot more on their 449 00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:43,600 Speaker 9: cloud business right now in the ramp up there they 450 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:45,760 Speaker 9: I don't think they have the time to focus on 451 00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:47,200 Speaker 9: reviving TikTok. 452 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:53,280 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 453 00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:56,960 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 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