WEBVTT - Populism is Resentment of Elites, Schneider Says 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:13.040 Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:17.560 Jai Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:23.520 and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 0:00:23.600 --> 0:00:32.880 Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Joining 0:00:32.960 --> 0:00:34.680 us in New York. I'm really pleased to say is 0:00:34.720 --> 0:00:38.400 cal Windberg, High Frequency Economics, chief economist and managing director, 0:00:38.440 --> 0:00:40.760 and he joins us right now. Good morning to you, Carl. 0:00:41.000 --> 0:00:42.919 Pleasure to be here, Thanks for having me on. It's 0:00:42.960 --> 0:00:45.239 the trade war on hold and for how long will 0:00:45.280 --> 0:00:47.240 it be on hold? It is on hold, it will 0:00:47.280 --> 0:00:49.479 be on hold until it's not on hold. There's no 0:00:49.520 --> 0:00:52.440 reason to suspect that it's going to go either well 0:00:53.080 --> 0:00:56.640 or badly. The scorecard is this. I think China is 0:00:56.680 --> 0:00:59.560 having its way with the United States in this conversation, 0:01:00.040 --> 0:01:03.400 and this was a backdown by the United States. It 0:01:03.440 --> 0:01:06.840 avoids a conflict, the tariff war that would have been 0:01:06.880 --> 0:01:09.480 to everybody's disadvantage, and it gives people a time to 0:01:09.520 --> 0:01:11.480 cool off. So I'm all in favor of it, and 0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:13.880 I hope it less and I hope that China and 0:01:13.880 --> 0:01:16.319 the United States can learn to work together rather than 0:01:16.520 --> 0:01:18.840 knock each other's heads. Well, we can discuss how long 0:01:18.920 --> 0:01:22.319 last thing it might be. Finalists explore the vague commitments 0:01:22.360 --> 0:01:27.680 the Chinese pledging to to rebalance the disparity between Chinese 0:01:27.680 --> 0:01:31.440 and the United States trade surplus. Um, how firm is 0:01:31.480 --> 0:01:34.160 that commitment to rebalance that? And what are you expecting 0:01:34.160 --> 0:01:38.720 to see? Car We've send commitments to boost imports of energy, agriculture. 0:01:38.959 --> 0:01:41.479 Are they good things? Yeah, well, they'd be good things 0:01:41.520 --> 0:01:43.840 if they would happen. I don't know exactly how you 0:01:44.080 --> 0:01:46.759 make them happen. I remember John Maynard. I remember reading 0:01:46.760 --> 0:01:50.320 about John Maynard Keynes talking to bertel Lean about why 0:01:50.360 --> 0:01:53.520 Germany doesn't export more? You know, why doesn't Germany export 0:01:53.600 --> 0:01:56.200 were And his idea was that Germany had to impoverage 0:01:56.240 --> 0:01:58.840 its workers to make all of its stuff cheaper. Um. 0:01:58.920 --> 0:02:00.360 I think at the end of the day, you know, 0:02:00.400 --> 0:02:03.040 the United States has to produce more stuff that China wants. 0:02:03.320 --> 0:02:06.720 We have stuff that China wants on the technology side, 0:02:06.440 --> 0:02:08.480 and we're not selling it to them, and that would 0:02:08.520 --> 0:02:10.560 be one way to reduce all of this. And that's 0:02:10.600 --> 0:02:12.679 the Chinese point. And as I said, I think the 0:02:12.760 --> 0:02:15.000 Chinese are really having their way in this conversation. What 0:02:15.080 --> 0:02:17.600 I talk about to what extent the Chinese, the commitments 0:02:17.600 --> 0:02:20.400 of the weekend, how much of that is just an organic, 0:02:20.600 --> 0:02:23.280 natural consequence of more growth in China that they will 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:26.600 need more foreign agricultural goods, they will need more foreign 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:30.200 energy sources as well. Undoubtedly that's going to growth, is 0:02:30.240 --> 0:02:33.400 going to help move this conversation forward. They've agreed to 0:02:33.400 --> 0:02:36.080 buy things like energy. All right, we make energy, we 0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:38.760 export energy now in the United States, that's new. We 0:02:38.800 --> 0:02:41.799 have a comparative advantage and if you will over China, 0:02:42.160 --> 0:02:44.240 and so therefore we're going to sell some more of it. 0:02:44.280 --> 0:02:46.920 So I think that's kind of a natural evolution. I 0:02:46.960 --> 0:02:49.240 really do believe that a lot of the substance of 0:02:49.280 --> 0:02:51.840 what we've seen this weekend is really just a face 0:02:51.880 --> 0:02:54.560 saving way for both sides to down from the cliff 0:02:55.280 --> 0:02:58.040 any real commitment to do anything. It just gives everybody 0:02:58.040 --> 0:03:00.120 a way to say, okay, just kidding ha ha, to 0:03:00.200 --> 0:03:03.359 move on with the conversation. I strongly agree. And then 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:08.440 within the face saving Dr Weinberg is the timeline and 0:03:08.480 --> 0:03:13.240 the Chinese have every advantage, don't they don't They just wait, well, 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:15.920 they're growing at in a bad year at just under 0:03:15.919 --> 0:03:18.120 seven percent, and the United States and the good year 0:03:18.200 --> 0:03:20.320 is growing at two and a half percent. So you 0:03:20.400 --> 0:03:22.160 do the math on that, and you start off with 0:03:22.680 --> 0:03:25.400 China slightly larger than the U. S economy in terms 0:03:25.400 --> 0:03:28.240 of converting looking at its economy in terms of the 0:03:28.240 --> 0:03:30.440 purchasing power of the money rather than the exchange right 0:03:30.480 --> 0:03:32.239 the way the World Bank looks at it. So they're 0:03:32.280 --> 0:03:34.720 already the largest economy on Earth, and they're just going 0:03:34.720 --> 0:03:38.040 to pull farther and farther ahead with their silk root. 0:03:38.280 --> 0:03:40.600 Their exports are going to grow faster and faster than 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:44.080 the United States. They have already become the largest economy 0:03:44.080 --> 0:03:46.720 on Earth, and they're on track to become the dominant economy. 0:03:46.720 --> 0:03:48.840 But it was going to pay the the trade hawks. 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:50.960 What they really wanted was not just to rebounance the 0:03:50.960 --> 0:03:52.840 trade surplus. It was to go after made and shine, 0:03:54.080 --> 0:03:57.440 to go after the protected industries that they want to 0:03:57.480 --> 0:04:01.000 dominate on a worldwide basis. Have we seen a big 0:04:01.040 --> 0:04:06.160 loss for Navarro, Wilbur Ross, and Mr Your good question, 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:10.200 Greg Villier posits in his Morning Note that Mr Leightheiser 0:04:10.200 --> 0:04:13.080 and Mr Navarro may resign. Yeah, I actually saw the 0:04:13.120 --> 0:04:15.600 same thing in his morning you did, and yeah, you 0:04:15.640 --> 0:04:19.120 were read in and that's very read in. Um, cow 0:04:19.680 --> 0:04:22.240 cow To what extent is it a loss for them 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:24.719 over the weekend? And also I should add to what 0:04:24.839 --> 0:04:28.080 extent is this actually about a foreign policy goal that 0:04:28.120 --> 0:04:31.040 could come about next month when the United States sits 0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:34.040 down with North Korea? Yeah? So, um, there's a lot 0:04:34.080 --> 0:04:36.560 of questions in the question that you raised, right, I 0:04:36.560 --> 0:04:40.560 mean Navarro, Uh, In my view, all right, his point 0:04:40.600 --> 0:04:43.720 of view has always been wrong. So to have him 0:04:43.760 --> 0:04:46.640 excluded from the administration because what he's doing is not 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:48.360 working on what he wants to do is not going 0:04:48.400 --> 0:04:50.920 to work, all right, that's a logical extension. It's an 0:04:50.920 --> 0:04:53.800 evolutionary sort of thing. It's not a revolutionary sort of thing. 0:04:54.200 --> 0:04:56.440 But I think that his Mercanti listen approach to U 0:04:56.520 --> 0:04:58.640 S trade is just is just off as far as 0:04:58.720 --> 0:05:01.240 North Korea is concerned. I think the Chinese have a 0:05:01.320 --> 0:05:04.000 very clear upper hand here. The Chinese are saying to 0:05:04.040 --> 0:05:06.719 the North Koreans, you know, we'll give you what you want, 0:05:07.040 --> 0:05:08.719 do what we want you to do, which is to 0:05:08.839 --> 0:05:12.080 make friends with South Korea, and then to annex yourself 0:05:12.120 --> 0:05:14.920 to what we're doing, and that moves South Korea out 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:17.520 of the US fold. Carl, I want to rip up 0:05:17.560 --> 0:05:19.479 the script, and I know we can do this with 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:22.680 you because you're prodigious in your your history and ability. 0:05:22.839 --> 0:05:25.239 We have a merger this morning which is pretty cut 0:05:25.240 --> 0:05:29.320 and dry, and it's all these alphabets ge to my 0:05:29.440 --> 0:05:33.000 web co for what is it, John eleven billion dollars 0:05:33.000 --> 0:05:36.479 something like that after tax benefits ten billion dollars. But 0:05:36.600 --> 0:05:40.320 this barely describes the G Transportation flat out. Its back 0:05:41.320 --> 0:05:43.240 is going to be taken out where g E owns 0:05:43.279 --> 0:05:48.919 fifte of the Westinghouse break Company of eighteen sixty nine 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:53.279 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Outside of Pittsburgh as well. And the 0:05:53.440 --> 0:05:59.640 fact is these are multi national companies. There are perfect 0:05:59.839 --> 0:06:06.560 manufacturing example of a true multinational vision, which I would 0:06:06.560 --> 0:06:11.240 suggest the President looks at as a discreet, uh domestic 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:15.960 company outside Pittsburgh. They're not just another break company outside Pittsburgh, 0:06:15.960 --> 0:06:19.040 are they. They're truly multinational. Yeah. I think what you're 0:06:19.080 --> 0:06:22.440 hitting on, Tom is the education that this administration is getting, 0:06:22.760 --> 0:06:25.840 which is that trade is not a domestic issue, all right, 0:06:25.920 --> 0:06:29.440 but most American business is multinational. I mean even my 0:06:29.560 --> 0:06:33.800 little business does two thirds of its revenues come from overseas. 0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:37.440 Production chains are linked. You know, you go after NAFTA, 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:40.200 for example, as the current administration has, and suddenly they 0:06:40.200 --> 0:06:43.760 allotmobile manufacturers, a core industry in the United States, are saying, WHOA, 0:06:43.880 --> 0:06:46.560 this affects us. We have to to rope it back 0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:49.000 in so that our core businesses aren't affected and the 0:06:49.040 --> 0:06:51.760 whole economy isn't affected. So I think there's an educational 0:06:51.800 --> 0:06:54.440 process going on within the administration, which is why the 0:06:54.520 --> 0:06:57.480 Navarros maybe stepping to this being pushed to the side, 0:06:57.680 --> 0:07:00.400 and bigger, more adults are coming into the and John, 0:07:00.440 --> 0:07:03.200 what's so important about this is I'm going to assume 0:07:03.440 --> 0:07:10.920 within transportation and trains and breaks it's wildly competitive, there's 0:07:10.920 --> 0:07:14.000 got to be like five but from bidding on the 0:07:14.040 --> 0:07:17.760 next train, away from the specifics of one particular industry, 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:20.160 this was always about whether you want to maintain the 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:22.720 status quote, not maintain free trade because we don't have 0:07:22.760 --> 0:07:25.760 free trade. Was about whether you maintain the status quo. 0:07:25.840 --> 0:07:29.800 And multinationals in the United States quite clearly benefit from 0:07:29.840 --> 0:07:32.360 the status quot and the view in the C suite 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:34.360 is don't take the risk with the status quote to 0:07:34.400 --> 0:07:37.680 open up Chinese markets aggressively. They will over time. We 0:07:37.720 --> 0:07:40.000 can wait. We make enough money as it is. This 0:07:40.120 --> 0:07:43.600 administration took a very different stance. This administration looked at 0:07:43.600 --> 0:07:46.320 the Chinese, a very protectionist regime that has leached on 0:07:46.360 --> 0:07:49.960 global trade for over a decade now and more, and said, 0:07:49.960 --> 0:07:52.960 we need to do something aggressively. Now, Carl, as you 0:07:52.960 --> 0:07:54.960 sit there is a business owner that benefits from the 0:07:55.000 --> 0:07:58.160 status quo. Are you basically saying that you're not happy 0:07:58.200 --> 0:08:01.440 with this administration taking the risk aggressively opening up Chinese 0:08:01.480 --> 0:08:04.679 markets when the downside is the status quot could become 0:08:04.920 --> 0:08:08.160 something much much worse. Yeah, well, I think that uh 0:08:08.840 --> 0:08:11.360 ripping up the script, as Tom likes to say, without 0:08:11.360 --> 0:08:13.360 having a new script in its place, is a risky 0:08:13.360 --> 0:08:16.280 business right, And Tom can get away with it because 0:08:16.280 --> 0:08:20.360 he's Tom. But the US economic policy can't get away 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:23.160 with it because there are many more complicated moving parts. 0:08:23.360 --> 0:08:26.280 And to my mind, the fault in this area of 0:08:26.320 --> 0:08:29.640 the Trump administration has been that they've been willing to 0:08:29.720 --> 0:08:32.360 take things off the table and to break things up, 0:08:32.400 --> 0:08:35.600 to remove elements from pieces from the puzzle without having 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:38.200 replacement pieces ready to go. And that's been true of 0:08:38.200 --> 0:08:40.679 the China policy. It's been true of NAFTA, where we're 0:08:40.679 --> 0:08:43.000 now seeing them reel that back in as well. All right, 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:45.520 it was true of Transpacific Partnership where suddenly we want 0:08:45.520 --> 0:08:47.280 to get back in and again it's it's true of 0:08:47.360 --> 0:08:50.080 so many things, because you can't leave a vacuum, because 0:08:50.080 --> 0:08:53.120 if you leave a void, someone like China will step 0:08:53.160 --> 0:08:56.040 into it and fill it for you. Fantastic to have 0:08:56.080 --> 0:08:58.480 you with this this this morning, and really appreciate your time. 0:08:58.559 --> 0:09:16.080 High Frequency Economics Chief Economists and Managing Directory. The book 0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:21.559 is standoff How America became ungovernable, governable. But what matters 0:09:21.679 --> 0:09:25.200 is the author is Bill Schneider. He has definitively put 0:09:25.280 --> 0:09:29.880 history first in our review of America are politics and 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:32.320 of course the chaos that we're in right now. I 0:09:32.360 --> 0:09:34.520 love the blurb at the beginning. In a little more 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:39.520 than fifty years, America policies have gone from Camelot to 0:09:39.640 --> 0:09:41.760 Game of Thrones. I guess that really says it all, 0:09:42.280 --> 0:09:45.840 Bill Schneider. Game of Thrones, which character is President Trump playing? 0:09:46.120 --> 0:09:48.080 I haven't seen the game of you're the only one 0:09:48.080 --> 0:09:50.480 who has it, but the but the answer is the 0:09:50.559 --> 0:09:54.280 chaos that's out there. We've seen before. How do you 0:09:54.360 --> 0:09:58.360 get beyond whether someone's a Republican, Democrat, whatever, How do 0:09:58.440 --> 0:10:02.160 we get beyond where we are out to something bordering 0:10:02.200 --> 0:10:06.720 on civility and stability? Normally, the answer is a crisis. 0:10:07.040 --> 0:10:09.280 We're a system that's very difficult to govern. We were 0:10:09.320 --> 0:10:12.280 designed not to be easy to govern. When there's a crisis, 0:10:12.320 --> 0:10:15.760 everything comes into place. You know. For one year after 0:10:15.840 --> 0:10:19.320 nine eleven, Democrats supported President Bush and the country. It 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:22.319 looked like a consensus was being built because there was 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:24.600 a crisis in the world and in the United States. 0:10:24.920 --> 0:10:27.400 It didn't last very long because a year after nine eleven, 0:10:27.640 --> 0:10:31.120 President Bush started the rollout for the Iraq War and 0:10:31.240 --> 0:10:35.439 all the old division surfaced once again. I look at 0:10:35.480 --> 0:10:37.520 where we are and helped John Farrell here, the young 0:10:37.559 --> 0:10:41.359 man from the United Kingdom, and that there's this populism 0:10:41.400 --> 0:10:43.920 mood that's out there. We see it everywhere. What is 0:10:43.960 --> 0:10:48.680 the flavor of populism that is the standoff of American politics. 0:10:49.000 --> 0:10:52.960 The flavor of populism is resentment of elites, that's very deep, 0:10:53.000 --> 0:10:55.960 resentments of big word here is and resentment. Yeah, there's 0:10:55.960 --> 0:11:00.000 a lot of resentment. Uh. And in the United States. 0:11:00.040 --> 0:11:04.480 You know, the constituency that Trump mobilized are basically people 0:11:04.520 --> 0:11:08.800 who feel disrespected. They went into a rage over President Obama. 0:11:09.320 --> 0:11:12.360 They called it the Ray the reign of political correctness, 0:11:12.400 --> 0:11:16.400 because political correctness is the belief in diversity and inclusion, 0:11:16.720 --> 0:11:19.280 and a lot of these working class white men think 0:11:19.600 --> 0:11:22.839 inclusion does not include them. That's a really interesting point. 0:11:23.120 --> 0:11:25.880 And so your point, Bill. We've had full presidents two 0:11:25.920 --> 0:11:29.880 Democrats to Republicans that have promised to unite and to 0:11:30.080 --> 0:11:34.040 heal and totally not only failed. Why it's so different 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:36.680 this time around. We have a president who is governing 0:11:36.720 --> 0:11:39.920 by dividing. Uh. President Trump is doing something no other 0:11:39.960 --> 0:11:44.280 president has done. He ran as a divider by mobilizing 0:11:44.320 --> 0:11:48.360 this angry constituency that feels disrespected. Remember Hillary Clinton called 0:11:48.400 --> 0:11:53.200 them a basket of deplorables. Well, they erupted then in 0:11:53.280 --> 0:11:55.600 that campaign. Uh. And they feel as if no one 0:11:55.640 --> 0:11:58.719 is paying attention to them. The economy that affects them 0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:02.720 is fail ing. Uh. And these people have no place 0:12:02.720 --> 0:12:06.280 in a world of political correctness. Can't he deliver for them? 0:12:06.400 --> 0:12:09.360 We don't know yet. Uh. He the economy is moving 0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:12.200 along nicely, and if that happens and it helps them 0:12:12.480 --> 0:12:15.640 get ahead. Uh, then they'll be very appreciative. But the 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:18.280 fact is there's very little evidence that the economic growth 0:12:18.280 --> 0:12:21.080 that the country is now enjoying is helping people much 0:12:21.120 --> 0:12:22.880 at the bottom. Where were you were you on the 0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:28.160 CNN set in Yes, the Republican I sat there, remember 0:12:28.200 --> 0:12:30.680 sitting on the coach. The only major network that covered 0:12:30.720 --> 0:12:33.120 it was Dan Rather on CBLS. And there was this 0:12:33.200 --> 0:12:37.400 revolution in absolutely stunning. Is that what we're faced here 0:12:37.440 --> 0:12:40.000 in November? We could be that would be they're talking 0:12:40.000 --> 0:12:42.360 about a blue wave instead of a red wave. That 0:12:42.440 --> 0:12:45.480 was the first time in forty years in that the 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:48.440 Republicans took over the House of Representatives over Congress. It 0:12:48.600 --> 0:12:51.920 was a revolution. Did anybody see it coming? My recollection 0:12:52.040 --> 0:12:55.040 is pretty much no, no, not really. And we know 0:12:55.120 --> 0:12:58.840 what happened that year. Historically what happened is gun owners 0:12:59.440 --> 0:13:01.559 and there were it just right came out in huge, 0:13:01.760 --> 0:13:06.160 unprecedented numbers, nine million new mid The Blue crew come 0:13:06.160 --> 0:13:08.640 out this time around. That's what we don't know. It 0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:12.400 would include Bill Snyder. You know what's going to happen here? Well, 0:13:12.440 --> 0:13:15.280 you know there's an old rule never make predictions, especially 0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:21.000 about the future. Well, the down right. That was Yogie Barrett. 0:13:21.679 --> 0:13:25.880 I megan right down in the wedding register. How long 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:29.880 has that taken you? Twenty three minutes to bring up 0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:32.280 the roll away John a question from Bill Snyder. Police, 0:13:32.320 --> 0:13:35.320 they'll just to complete this conversation. The risk for many 0:13:35.360 --> 0:13:39.640 people listening in our audience, investments, business leaders, is that 0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:43.160 if the president can't address the problems that the minorities 0:13:43.160 --> 0:13:46.559 that you've brought up that believe they haven't been listened 0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:50.000 to over the last several decades, if he can't address 0:13:50.040 --> 0:13:53.200 those problems, that this country swings aggressively to the left. 0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:56.520 How big is that risk? Well, I think there is 0:13:56.559 --> 0:13:59.440 a risk that will happen. It very much depends on 0:13:59.440 --> 0:14:02.840 whom the Democrats. Who who catches fire among Democrats? Will 0:14:02.880 --> 0:14:06.800 it be a strong progressive candidate like Elizabeth Warren? They 0:14:06.800 --> 0:14:09.360 could be Joe Biden. He would be the logical next person. 0:14:09.600 --> 0:14:12.480 The problem is he's well into his seventies and he's 0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:14.960 part of the past. We don't know. That's what primaries 0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:17.480 are all about, and they're inherently unpredictable, but some of 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:20.320 them will always catch fire. The old rule is Democrats 0:14:20.320 --> 0:14:23.080 fall in love and Republicans fall in line. That didn't 0:14:23.120 --> 0:14:26.080 happen in twenty Republicans fell in love with Donald Trump 0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:29.480 and Democrats fell in line behind Hillary Clinton. So even 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:32.560 those rules aren't necessarily the case. Bill Snyder, thank you 0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:35.640 so much in congratulations. The book is standoff, How America 0:14:36.240 --> 0:14:40.720 became ungovernable, with a fabulous tapestry history to drive forward 0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:43.400 to the mid term elections and then to two thousand 0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:47.000 Tory of course, Bill Schneider at George Mason and for 0:14:47.200 --> 0:15:05.080 years associated and inventing our political coverage and CNN soaring prices, 0:15:05.160 --> 0:15:09.440 widespread hunger, rampant crime, failing health system, and a large 0:15:09.480 --> 0:15:14.680 scale exodus of its citizens. And yet President Nicolas Maduro 0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:18.720 has won a second term as the president of Venezuela. 0:15:19.000 --> 0:15:21.320 Here to tell us more about it is Patricia La 0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:26.400 our Venezuela Bureau chief, joining us now on the phone. Patricia, 0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:29.040 thank you very much for being with us. Uh Do 0:15:29.200 --> 0:15:33.680 people in Venezuela regard the results of the election as 0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:38.760 uh legal? Um? Well, be hard for me to speak 0:15:38.760 --> 0:15:41.240 on behalf of Venezuela, but we did visit a lot 0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:44.000 of voting centers yesterday, and many of them were in 0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:47.240 the western side of Calacas, which is the more popular areas, 0:15:47.320 --> 0:15:50.880 and they were practically empty, many of them. I was 0:15:50.960 --> 0:15:53.400 the only person even there apart from the people that 0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:56.360 were working at the voting center. So clearly you have 0:15:56.440 --> 0:16:02.120 a very disillusioned and uninterested electorate who UM already fighting 0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:05.920 a daily plight to do about just anything, finding food, 0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:08.640 being able to afford food once you can find it. 0:16:09.200 --> 0:16:12.760 Public services are completely collapsed, as running water has become 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:15.920 a luxury. In Kalaas and most of Venezuela, you have 0:16:16.000 --> 0:16:20.120 power out of just happening for hours. Public transportation is 0:16:20.720 --> 0:16:24.120 becoming more and more difficult, a spare parts are hard 0:16:24.160 --> 0:16:27.040 to find, an important to the country. So of course 0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:31.360 a large large percentage of Venezuelans were completely uninterested in 0:16:31.560 --> 0:16:35.240 yesterday's event. So before we get into smooth the economic 0:16:35.240 --> 0:16:39.800 implications of the continued reign of Maduro, I'm wondering almost 0:16:40.680 --> 0:16:45.280 of the population did vote? Who are his supporters? So, um, 0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:48.560 those are the numbers according to the national like the 0:16:49.080 --> 0:16:53.520 UM authority, but well, you know, it's hard to know. 0:16:53.720 --> 0:16:56.360 Some people do cust out on them UM. But of 0:16:56.400 --> 0:17:00.440 course they do have UM a large government shame that 0:17:00.560 --> 0:17:06.400 encourages people to vote by offering um bonuses or certain prices. 0:17:06.440 --> 0:17:09.679 That there were hundreds of thousands of points outside of 0:17:09.720 --> 0:17:14.360 electoral UH centers yesterday that if you prove that you voted, UM, 0:17:14.440 --> 0:17:17.400 they'll give you, you know, a certain price. They don't 0:17:17.440 --> 0:17:19.679 tell you what it is outwardly, right, but you assume 0:17:19.720 --> 0:17:23.320 that it's just a deposit into your accounts. At some 0:17:23.480 --> 0:17:26.520 of the centers, I even saw people handing out bread 0:17:26.560 --> 0:17:30.200 and water to voters. Um. So yeah, there's this, there's 0:17:30.200 --> 0:17:33.399 a machine that's encouraging people to come out and vote. Okay, 0:17:33.600 --> 0:17:35.880 so let's talk about the implications because I am looking 0:17:35.880 --> 0:17:38.800 at PASA bands that is, the state owned oil company 0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:43.840 that are falling, and the ie that the International Energy 0:17:44.400 --> 0:17:48.120 Agency has been coming out and saying they expect Venezuela 0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:54.560 oil output to decline to an innex basically a negligible amount. 0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:57.040 What's the prospects? Why are you? Why are things so 0:17:57.080 --> 0:17:59.720 bleak and getting bleaker for Venezuela at this point? Yeah? 0:17:59.760 --> 0:18:02.399 So oil production is already at a thirty or forty 0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:05.880 year low. Um, you have many of the oil workers 0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:09.200 just walking out, not only because they're so poorly paid, 0:18:09.320 --> 0:18:14.159 but because they're too hungry and weak to operate heavy machinery. Um, 0:18:14.240 --> 0:18:17.960 you have conical philips uh on a global assault. I 0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:21.280 guess Thataday sat trying to take some of his two 0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:25.159 billion arbitration award that it was granted last month. And you, 0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:28.480 on top of all of that, you have the Venezuela 0:18:28.560 --> 0:18:31.160 under active review for oil sanctions on behalf of the US, 0:18:31.240 --> 0:18:34.160 which would be sort of the deadly blow to an 0:18:34.160 --> 0:18:37.320 economy that's already in crisis. So the outlook is for 0:18:37.359 --> 0:18:39.639 everything to just continue to words them from now on. 0:18:41.119 --> 0:18:45.760 Does the president recognize that your description, and indeed the 0:18:45.840 --> 0:18:50.119 description of most media outlets about what the majority of 0:18:50.240 --> 0:18:53.120 people in Venezuela deal with on a daily basis, does 0:18:53.160 --> 0:18:56.560 he recognize that that is true? No, he does not. 0:18:56.680 --> 0:18:59.320 I don't think he has ever even uttered the word 0:18:59.359 --> 0:19:03.159 hyper influ asan or anything of the stort um everything 0:19:03.520 --> 0:19:08.600 Um that he does sort of agree or admit he 0:19:08.680 --> 0:19:14.200 characterizes it as the war waged from the US against Venezuela. Um, 0:19:14.240 --> 0:19:17.840 he blames everything as a Venezuela being under economic attack 0:19:17.960 --> 0:19:20.840 from other nations across the globe. Okay, but if he 0:19:21.280 --> 0:19:24.440 just sort of move a little further on that, if 0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:27.399 you're under it, let's say, let's say that is, let's 0:19:27.440 --> 0:19:32.119 just take that as his version. Does he admit or 0:19:32.240 --> 0:19:35.240 recognize that there are people who are going hungry, that 0:19:35.320 --> 0:19:39.320 there is no running water, that electricity is intermittent, and 0:19:39.560 --> 0:19:43.040 that no one can afford to buy food? No, I 0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:48.080 mean he'll admitted to a certain extent, but nothing even closed. 0:19:48.119 --> 0:19:51.360 He he will mention some of these, um issues are 0:19:51.359 --> 0:19:53.359 in press conferences and things like that. And the funny 0:19:53.359 --> 0:19:56.320 thing is that he kept repeating that, you know, after 0:19:56.359 --> 0:19:59.320 he was elected, Um, he was going to solve you know, 0:19:59.320 --> 0:20:03.119 a majority these issues. What we're wondering is how have 0:20:03.359 --> 0:20:07.639 those options alluded him so far as to how we 0:20:07.680 --> 0:20:12.680 can continue? The economy is expected to contract nine percent. Uh, 0:20:12.760 --> 0:20:16.600 this dear inflation is said to hit percent. The currency 0:20:16.600 --> 0:20:20.280 has lost more than his value. Right, Um, there are 0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:22.359 a lot of things that he needs to get on 0:20:22.400 --> 0:20:25.399 the right path. Patricia Lah, thank you so much for 0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:28.159 being with us. Good luck to you, and UH it 0:20:28.200 --> 0:20:30.680 sounds pretty hopeless. I'm hoping that there is something else, 0:20:31.160 --> 0:20:34.680 uh that will perhaps help mitigate the situation and perhaps 0:20:35.160 --> 0:20:39.360 cause a change to the at least policies of the leadership. 0:20:39.359 --> 0:20:42.560 Patricia la Venezuela Bureau chief talking to us about those 0:20:42.760 --> 0:21:00.199 Venezuelan elections and chairs of Tesla. They are up right 0:21:00.240 --> 0:21:03.360 now a little bit more than three percent. This comes 0:21:03.440 --> 0:21:08.120 after Elon Muska, the founder and the chief executive of Tesla, 0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:14.120 announces details about two variants of the model of three. Indeed, 0:21:14.160 --> 0:21:18.160 one of those variants is estimated to cost about seventy 0:21:18.200 --> 0:21:22.719 eight thousand dollars. That's twice the price of a base 0:21:23.000 --> 0:21:27.959 Model three. And it reminds me of an old National 0:21:28.000 --> 0:21:32.800 Airlines commercial entitled is this any way to run an airline? 0:21:32.920 --> 0:21:35.360 Is this any way to run a car company? Here 0:21:35.400 --> 0:21:38.639 to help us answer that question, Kevin Tynan, Bloomberg Intelligence 0:21:38.840 --> 0:21:44.360 Senior analyst for Everything's Automotive Kevin always a pleasure. Um. 0:21:44.640 --> 0:21:47.440 I know I'm dating myself by talking about National Airlines, 0:21:47.480 --> 0:21:49.480 but we all know what happened to National Airlines, So 0:21:49.560 --> 0:21:54.120 I'm curious, is this any way to run an automobile company? 0:21:54.160 --> 0:21:58.199 By having the chief executive tweet out, I mean, I 0:21:58.240 --> 0:22:00.320 get you know, it gets you tons of free public listening. 0:22:00.359 --> 0:22:02.280 You never have to do an ad in your life, 0:22:02.920 --> 0:22:04.960 But is this the way to run a company that's 0:22:04.960 --> 0:22:09.960 trying to produce mass automobiles? Well? I look I guess 0:22:10.000 --> 0:22:13.120 that goes all the way up to the President communicates 0:22:13.200 --> 0:22:16.720 via tweet now too, So, um, I think Elon Musk 0:22:16.800 --> 0:22:22.440 is that sort of new generation of CEO tweeting out plans, uh, 0:22:22.600 --> 0:22:25.439 you know, calling analyst bone heads on the call, so 0:22:25.800 --> 0:22:30.120 you know, until until the shareholders react, he'll he'll continue 0:22:30.160 --> 0:22:32.600 to push the envelope in that way. I'm sure. So 0:22:32.640 --> 0:22:37.320 what is your thought about this announcement and the new 0:22:37.640 --> 0:22:41.919 loaded versions of the Tesla Model three. Aren't they just 0:22:42.000 --> 0:22:46.280 having challenges getting the regular model three out there? Well? 0:22:46.320 --> 0:22:48.280 I don't. I'm not sure they want to get the 0:22:48.400 --> 0:22:51.600 regular model three out there when you look at you know, 0:22:51.640 --> 0:22:55.919 the quarterly reports and and you know, running at at 0:22:55.920 --> 0:22:59.000 an operating loss, and you know, the idea is is 0:22:59.160 --> 0:23:02.679 to still be up market until you know they can 0:23:02.720 --> 0:23:05.000 get production. I'm not sure you're ever going to see 0:23:05.000 --> 0:23:08.679 the thirty five thousand dollar vehicle. Um. You know, so 0:23:08.720 --> 0:23:12.320 in that in that way, this makes sense to be selling, 0:23:12.880 --> 0:23:15.880 you know, the premium vehicles. I think two things happen though. 0:23:15.920 --> 0:23:20.679 One is at seventy eight thousand dollars before autopilot even 0:23:21.280 --> 0:23:23.399 um that that's not even included in that seventy eight 0:23:23.440 --> 0:23:26.119 thousand dollar price egg, but at seventy eight thousand dollars, 0:23:26.119 --> 0:23:28.800