WEBVTT - Will Trump Bring the River to Washington? 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:28.844 Pushkin, Welcome back to Risky Business, A show about making 0:00:28.884 --> 0:00:31.444 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 0:00:31.124 --> 0:00:36.884 And I'm Nate Silver. Today the election's over. What am 0:00:36.924 --> 0:00:38.284 I doing today? 0:00:39.844 --> 0:00:42.844 Today? Nate is having an existential crisis over the fact 0:00:42.884 --> 0:00:45.684 that the election is over and he no longer knows. 0:00:45.564 --> 0:00:50.444 Who I was so thrilled I gave a talk in Orlando, Florida. 0:00:51.324 --> 0:00:54.124 It was kind of like the official, official last election 0:00:54.204 --> 0:00:57.204 obligation I had, and the talks done at one thirty 0:00:57.244 --> 0:01:01.364 and I dovetailed like the big Mexican strip ball restaurant 0:01:01.404 --> 0:01:03.444 and get like the world's largest plate in he doesn't 0:01:03.444 --> 0:01:05.404 have margarita, and I'm like, fucking yeah, I do. This 0:01:05.484 --> 0:01:09.044 election's over, but the implications for our country are not over. 0:01:09.524 --> 0:01:13.124 Talking a little bit about Donald Trump's cabinet picks, the 0:01:13.164 --> 0:01:16.324 influence of the community I call the river people like 0:01:16.364 --> 0:01:20.484 Elon Musk, and looking a little bit ahead dangerously toward 0:01:21.004 --> 0:01:23.164 twenty twenty six and the midterm map. 0:01:23.284 --> 0:01:25.764 And after that will ship gears a little bit and 0:01:25.964 --> 0:01:29.924 talk about the NAPT the North American Poker Tour where 0:01:30.044 --> 0:01:33.884 I played last week and had some good results, including 0:01:33.964 --> 0:01:37.924 a fourteenth place finish in the main event. So we'll 0:01:37.964 --> 0:01:40.524 talk a little bit about that, about the strategy, the 0:01:40.604 --> 0:01:43.924 thinking behind it, and our poker plans for the future. 0:01:53.804 --> 0:01:56.964 Since we last spoke, Nate Trump has started making some 0:01:57.044 --> 0:02:00.564 of his initial appointments, and so we're starting to see 0:02:00.564 --> 0:02:03.684 the kind of initial trends outlines of what Trump two 0:02:03.684 --> 0:02:06.004 point zero, what the administration is going to look like. 0:02:06.324 --> 0:02:10.804 Some of those appointments seem to be more riverian than 0:02:11.044 --> 0:02:14.204 villagey in nature. Let's talk a little bit about that. 0:02:14.284 --> 0:02:17.764 Let's talk about river versus village and what the Trump 0:02:17.804 --> 0:02:21.604 administration seems like it's going to be as of now. 0:02:21.924 --> 0:02:24.964 Yeah, So the river is my name for this kind 0:02:24.964 --> 0:02:28.364 of psychographic region of the world of people who take 0:02:28.404 --> 0:02:31.964 calculator risks for a living. So Silicon Valley and Wall 0:02:32.004 --> 0:02:35.764 Street in Las Vegas, both the casino and at least 0:02:35.804 --> 0:02:38.764 a skilled game players, poker players, sports betters and the like, 0:02:39.924 --> 0:02:45.084 and the river had gotten much more anti village. The 0:02:45.204 --> 0:02:48.204 village is the name for like the establishment the world 0:02:48.204 --> 0:02:50.804 that Kamala Harras comes from, so Harvard and the New 0:02:50.884 --> 0:02:54.084 York Times, and a government with Democrat is in charge, 0:02:54.204 --> 0:02:57.964 very risk averse establishment. The expert class and that class 0:02:58.004 --> 0:03:02.444 had like a bad week last week. I think, you know, 0:03:02.524 --> 0:03:07.164 will Elon be formerly part of the cabinet, I don't know. 0:03:07.244 --> 0:03:09.244 I guess you can bet at polymarket and the Ohs 0:03:09.244 --> 0:03:13.044 are in favor. I'm not sure that Elon necessarily wants 0:03:13.044 --> 0:03:14.764 to have a cabinet seat. I'm not sure that he 0:03:14.844 --> 0:03:16.244 needs to have a cabinet seat to have a lot 0:03:16.284 --> 0:03:19.644 of influence over the over the trajectory of the administration. 0:03:20.884 --> 0:03:24.124 You know, typically Republicans are also more willing than Democrats 0:03:24.164 --> 0:03:30.564 to appoint business people to cabinet seats. So for Treasury Secretary, 0:03:30.604 --> 0:03:34.844 for example, Scott Bessen, a hedge fund executive, is under consideration. 0:03:35.604 --> 0:03:37.724 Trump has, however, also made a lot of very kind 0:03:37.724 --> 0:03:44.964 of normal appointments. Elis Stefanak, for example, who is a 0:03:45.404 --> 0:03:49.324 used to be kind of moderate Republican member of Congress. 0:03:49.484 --> 0:03:52.124 Is uh is going to be the UN ambassador or 0:03:52.164 --> 0:03:54.564 some of the Republicans win the House by enough seats 0:03:54.564 --> 0:03:55.924 that they can keep the House if they lose a 0:03:55.924 --> 0:03:57.404 couple of seats, which is actually like a little bit 0:03:57.404 --> 0:04:00.364 of a risk. Marco Rubio is set to be Secretary 0:04:00.364 --> 0:04:04.164 of State. Lee Zelden, a former New York Long Island representative, 0:04:05.004 --> 0:04:11.324 relatively moderate, relatively is under considered for EPA administrator. So 0:04:11.804 --> 0:04:16.244 and there are some more MAGA epics. H Stephen Miller, 0:04:16.404 --> 0:04:19.564 who has very conservative views on race and immigration, is 0:04:19.604 --> 0:04:24.524 the Deputy chief of Staff for policy. But you know, 0:04:24.564 --> 0:04:33.244 Trump is how to put this, Trump's cabinet nominations, I 0:04:33.284 --> 0:04:36.964 would say, on balance so far with Rubio, for example, 0:04:37.124 --> 0:04:43.884 are maybe not quite what the village would most have feared. 0:04:44.204 --> 0:04:46.524 I don't think. I mean, I'm sure there will be 0:04:47.164 --> 0:04:49.564 one or two or three or four that they really dislike. 0:04:49.684 --> 0:04:53.404 Steven Miller is certainly one of those. For example. We'll 0:04:53.404 --> 0:04:56.604 see about Attorney General is a very important one, for instance. 0:04:58.484 --> 0:05:01.604 But you know, maybe that reflects a little bit of 0:05:01.644 --> 0:05:06.924 the a little bit of the the River's influence, just maybe. 0:05:06.964 --> 0:05:08.684 I mean, you know, I would say the rivers should 0:05:08.724 --> 0:05:13.204 in principle be in favor of more rational governance. That's 0:05:13.244 --> 0:05:16.764 kind of pro business and pro growth. Doesn't do stupid things, right, 0:05:18.444 --> 0:05:20.564 you know. Now in practice they get very red pilled, 0:05:20.604 --> 0:05:22.644 and so you don't have the most intelligent version of 0:05:22.644 --> 0:05:26.964 the arguments coming from like Elon Musk for example. But 0:05:27.044 --> 0:05:30.244 you know, like if I were, let me put it 0:05:30.284 --> 0:05:36.004 like this, if Trump called me, and then I'd say, well, 0:05:36.044 --> 0:05:38.044 you want to be popular, don't do a bunch of 0:05:38.044 --> 0:05:39.884 fucking tariffs. It might be popular in the service, but 0:05:39.924 --> 0:05:43.244 it'll make the economy worse. Don't deport a bunch of immigrants. 0:05:43.244 --> 0:05:46.444 We can have a more organized conversation about that, right, 0:05:46.524 --> 0:05:49.564 And then maybe the other stuff. Okay, whatever you're Trump, 0:05:49.564 --> 0:05:51.444 it's not and you're not gonna do what I want anyway, Right, 0:05:52.524 --> 0:05:55.564 But you know, can they get Trump to moderate on 0:05:55.644 --> 0:05:58.524 these issues? Then? I don't know. That remains to be seen. 0:05:58.804 --> 0:06:00.764 And the answer when it comes to Trump and moderation, 0:06:00.844 --> 0:06:03.044 on the one hand, is never been on anything. On 0:06:03.084 --> 0:06:05.804 the other hand, it's not always clear where Trump's passions 0:06:05.924 --> 0:06:10.844 lie and what he really cares about beyond himself. You know, 0:06:10.884 --> 0:06:13.204 there was some poling that found that one reason that 0:06:14.324 --> 0:06:16.804 Harris's message on abortion didn't resonate as much as they 0:06:16.804 --> 0:06:20.004 were hoping for is because voters just didn't really believe 0:06:20.044 --> 0:06:24.844 that Trump was passionate about the abortion stuff. Right, So 0:06:24.884 --> 0:06:27.244 where will he be guided, I think is an open question. 0:06:27.804 --> 0:06:30.324 Yeah. I actually had a really interesting conversation right before 0:06:30.364 --> 0:06:33.204 the election with a poker player who will remain nameless, 0:06:33.964 --> 0:06:37.684 who was not going to be voting and was kind 0:06:37.724 --> 0:06:41.164 of saying that, you know, oh, obviously, you know, I'm 0:06:41.284 --> 0:06:43.884 pro choice, but I don't think I don't think that 0:06:43.924 --> 0:06:46.204 Trump is going to do anything bad for abortion. That's 0:06:46.244 --> 0:06:48.604 not an issue that's going to sway me one way 0:06:48.684 --> 0:06:51.084 or the other because Trump is just leaving it up 0:06:51.124 --> 0:06:53.524 to the States. So just like parroting back kind of 0:06:53.284 --> 0:06:57.204 that message. And this was a very smart person, and 0:06:57.684 --> 0:07:01.044 it just it made me realize that that, yes, that 0:07:01.164 --> 0:07:05.124 a lot of people don't really you know, it's one 0:07:05.164 --> 0:07:07.484 of these like I don't think it will actually happen 0:07:07.764 --> 0:07:11.084 types of things, and I'd like i'd like to believe 0:07:11.124 --> 0:07:14.244 that it won't. And I think that that's psychologically kind 0:07:14.244 --> 0:07:18.404 of that kind of hopeful or wilful ignorance or trying 0:07:18.444 --> 0:07:21.364 to say like, I don't think that's gonna happen. Oh, 0:07:21.484 --> 0:07:23.804 you know, it's not really that bad. I think that 0:07:23.804 --> 0:07:26.284 that is actually a very major thing. But I do 0:07:26.404 --> 0:07:29.644 actually wonder you know, we're talking about the river versus 0:07:29.644 --> 0:07:33.284 the village. Trump is very much of the village, right. 0:07:33.364 --> 0:07:36.804 He is very establishment, you know, old New York family 0:07:37.764 --> 0:07:41.284 money like he and the only time he the times 0:07:41.284 --> 0:07:43.884 he's tried to foray into the river. Like the casino business. 0:07:43.884 --> 0:07:47.564 He's bankrupted it, right. He has proven himself to not 0:07:47.684 --> 0:07:52.644 be very adept when he does Riverian things. So I 0:07:52.684 --> 0:07:54.884 think that I think that we do need to realize that. 0:07:54.924 --> 0:07:57.964 I think he is the village as well. Elon Musk, 0:07:58.004 --> 0:08:01.324 of course, does represent the river, and I don't think 0:08:01.724 --> 0:08:05.204 so far we have seen signs that with or without 0:08:05.204 --> 0:08:08.364 an appointment. It seems like, at least for now, he's 0:08:08.404 --> 0:08:11.124 still on the inn with Trump, you know, putting him 0:08:11.164 --> 0:08:15.684 on the call with Zelenski talking about foreign policy when 0:08:16.364 --> 0:08:19.004 that seems too you know, why in the world would 0:08:19.044 --> 0:08:21.404 he be doing that. I think that that's a really 0:08:21.444 --> 0:08:25.204 interesting trend, and we do see I think this confluence 0:08:25.404 --> 0:08:29.604 of you know, Silicon Valley technocrats, etc. Big money coming 0:08:29.724 --> 0:08:34.324 to Washington in an informal advisory way. That to me, 0:08:34.524 --> 0:08:36.444 and I don't want to you know, I'm not trying 0:08:36.484 --> 0:08:39.484 to draw too many parallels that might not hold, but 0:08:40.604 --> 0:08:44.244 to me, it's actually kind of evocative of what happened 0:08:44.324 --> 0:08:47.164 when Putin came to power initially, where you had a 0:08:47.204 --> 0:08:50.044 lot of oligarchs and a lot of you know, big money, 0:08:50.044 --> 0:08:52.324 a lot of big business people backing him and thinking 0:08:52.564 --> 0:08:53.924 you know this is going to be good for us, 0:08:53.964 --> 0:08:55.404 this is going to be good for our bottom line, 0:08:55.404 --> 0:08:57.404 and we're going to be able to control him. And 0:08:57.484 --> 0:09:00.324 obviously what happened was a lot of them are now 0:09:00.404 --> 0:09:04.244 dead or in jail or in exile because Putin was 0:09:04.284 --> 0:09:07.924 absolutely not controllable and ended up turning on basically all 0:09:07.964 --> 0:09:10.084 of the people who brought him into power. So I 0:09:10.084 --> 0:09:15.084 think that that's an interesting semi parallel and I'm very 0:09:15.084 --> 0:09:19.164 curious to see whether Elon Musk and others like him 0:09:19.164 --> 0:09:22.724 are going to be able to maintain their influence in 0:09:22.844 --> 0:09:25.644 Washington or whether we're going to see something like that 0:09:25.724 --> 0:09:28.244 as well, because we know that Trump has no problems 0:09:28.524 --> 0:09:30.844 turning on people who were allies of his right. He's 0:09:30.884 --> 0:09:32.924 done that. He did that in Trump one point zero 0:09:33.724 --> 0:09:36.164 and Trump two point oho is probably going to be 0:09:36.204 --> 0:09:38.084 more brazen, although as you say, who knows. 0:09:39.524 --> 0:09:41.364 I mean, so in the book, I don't put Trump 0:09:41.364 --> 0:09:44.404 in either the village or the river. I you know, 0:09:44.484 --> 0:09:46.724 I think he wishes he could have been in the village. 0:09:46.764 --> 0:09:50.004 I think he isn't. And at some level, if you 0:09:50.164 --> 0:09:51.404 if you're not wanted, then you're. 0:09:51.284 --> 0:09:53.564 Not fairpoint fair point. 0:09:54.324 --> 0:09:55.364 I mean, look, I don't. 0:09:57.364 --> 0:09:57.804 I don't know. 0:09:57.884 --> 0:10:01.724 I can't like, I can't get into like the Trump 0:10:01.804 --> 0:10:06.524 putin comparisons, he won a fair election by quite a bit. 0:10:08.484 --> 0:10:10.684 He won a fair election a decent amount in part 0:10:10.764 --> 0:10:13.844 by like winning over lots of votes from lots of 0:10:13.884 --> 0:10:17.324 like Hispanic and Asian people, from younger voters, and has 0:10:17.324 --> 0:10:20.364 a more like diverse coalition, And like, I don't know, 0:10:20.444 --> 0:10:23.564 I you know, I don't know. I uh. And we've 0:10:23.564 --> 0:10:26.404 talked about this a little bit last week, but like, okay, 0:10:26.484 --> 0:10:31.204 let me ask you, Maria. Yeah, does the fact that 0:10:31.244 --> 0:10:34.804 Trump won by this convincing march and have you update 0:10:34.844 --> 0:10:37.244 your views on Trump at all? 0:10:37.844 --> 0:10:41.044 It does not have me update my views on Trump himself. 0:10:41.204 --> 0:10:44.444 I still think that Trump is someone who only cares 0:10:44.884 --> 0:10:50.604 about number one. It does make me realize that kind 0:10:50.604 --> 0:10:57.484 of the discontent is goes much deeper than I realized. 0:10:57.564 --> 0:11:02.244 And I do think that The other thing here is 0:11:02.324 --> 0:11:04.764 we've talked about the incumbency effect on the show in 0:11:04.804 --> 0:11:08.244 the past, and it does seem kind of worldwide right 0:11:08.284 --> 0:11:10.284 now that it's kind of Reber saying that, you know, 0:11:10.324 --> 0:11:12.844 with inflation, with all of these things, incumbent parties are 0:11:12.844 --> 0:11:16.164 actually not doing that well. That instead we do see 0:11:16.284 --> 0:11:19.364 people wanting change, and so I would not be at 0:11:19.364 --> 0:11:22.204 all surprised. You know, let's let's talk a little bit. 0:11:22.524 --> 0:11:25.084 You know, you kind of hinted that we'll talk about 0:11:25.124 --> 0:11:27.404 twenty twenty six, twenty twenty eight. I wouldn't be at 0:11:27.404 --> 0:11:30.084 all surprised if the Democratic parties make more gains in 0:11:30.084 --> 0:11:34.084 twenty twenty six, because you know, when you're the establishment, 0:11:34.604 --> 0:11:37.364 it's much more difficult to kind of play the victimhood 0:11:37.404 --> 0:11:41.404 card and say, oh, you know, it's the establishment versus us. 0:11:41.724 --> 0:11:45.284 Now we are the establishment, So I think that we 0:11:45.444 --> 0:11:48.044 might start seeing kind of things go the other way, 0:11:48.124 --> 0:11:51.124 because I think that some of the vote wasn't necessarily 0:11:51.204 --> 0:11:53.244 a vote for Trump so much as a vote for 0:11:53.764 --> 0:11:56.364 I'm not happy, I'm not doing well. These people in power, 0:11:56.724 --> 0:11:59.364 you know, seem to be responsible, so like, let's put 0:11:59.364 --> 0:12:00.964 someone else in power and hope for the best. 0:12:01.524 --> 0:12:04.724 You're right, Like, relatively speaking, Harris actually lost less vote 0:12:04.724 --> 0:12:07.444 share than a lot of incoment parties around the world. 0:12:07.444 --> 0:12:10.244 I mean, I think the US is somewhat exceptional in 0:12:10.244 --> 0:12:14.564 certain ways, but also I mean, yeah, in starting on 0:12:14.684 --> 0:12:20.364 January twentieth, all these headwinds that Democrats face become a tailwind. 0:12:21.804 --> 0:12:26.364 Democrats almost flipped the House. Looks like they'll be something 0:12:26.444 --> 0:12:28.804 like three or four seats short. So you are going 0:12:28.884 --> 0:12:35.164 to have like a effectively freedom caucus led majority, which 0:12:35.204 --> 0:12:37.524 will not always disagree, will not always agree with what 0:12:37.604 --> 0:12:40.684 you might formally have called the up establishment majority. All 0:12:40.684 --> 0:12:42.604 of it is pretty maga now for the most part. 0:12:44.084 --> 0:12:48.964 And Democrats held their losses to four Senate seats, which 0:12:49.004 --> 0:12:51.244 sounds like I'm spinning. But here's the thing. So you 0:12:51.244 --> 0:12:55.004 have forty seven seats now, and you're gonna have Trump 0:12:55.884 --> 0:12:58.604 gable to appoint the cabinet nominees he wants within reason. 0:13:00.444 --> 0:13:04.244 Candemocrats get back to fifty Senate seats by twenty twenty eight, 0:13:04.884 --> 0:13:08.004 in which case we have a President Shapiro or President 0:13:08.044 --> 0:13:11.844 Gretchen Whitmer or ever else. Gavin Newsom, I think probably 0:13:11.884 --> 0:13:14.084 thinks he's gonna get it that I think that time. 0:13:15.724 --> 0:13:19.884 So for Gavin Newsom, I'm just kidding. Uh, you know, 0:13:19.924 --> 0:13:22.564 can they have a democratic Senate? And the answer is yes. 0:13:22.604 --> 0:13:25.524 It's not that hopeless for Democrats because they need three 0:13:25.564 --> 0:13:27.324 pickups if they win the presidency. They can win with 0:13:27.324 --> 0:13:31.524 fifty to fifty. There are two races in North Carolina 0:13:31.604 --> 0:13:34.244 between now and twenty twenty eight. There is one race 0:13:34.284 --> 0:13:36.604 in Wisconsin that's gup held, and there's one in Maine 0:13:36.604 --> 0:13:39.484 where Susan Collins keeps holding on every year, but now 0:13:39.524 --> 0:13:41.724 her luck might run out, right, So Democrats need to 0:13:41.764 --> 0:13:45.364 win three of those four without losing any of their own. 0:13:45.444 --> 0:13:48.004 There are some other longer shot bets. Ohio, where Shared 0:13:48.044 --> 0:13:51.964 Brown lost has a special election because of Jade Vance 0:13:51.964 --> 0:13:55.204 in twenty twenty six, and that's a race Democrats will 0:13:55.204 --> 0:13:58.044 surely contest. If he ran again in a more blue environment, 0:13:58.804 --> 0:14:02.404 he might be in a toss up race there. But yeah, 0:14:02.404 --> 0:14:06.764 look we're kind of going back to like, look, all 0:14:07.124 --> 0:14:09.604 the risks, the existential risks to democracy, I think think 0:14:09.644 --> 0:14:15.244 are are less now because you had a clear verdict. 0:14:15.284 --> 0:14:17.964 You didn't have a disputed verdict, Harris, Thank goodness didn't 0:14:17.964 --> 0:14:20.324 dispute the verdict. I'm sure Trump would have if the 0:14:20.364 --> 0:14:24.804 same result had been only in their foot. You know, look, 0:14:24.844 --> 0:14:26.564 you'll have commentary to say, well, what he doesn't want 0:14:26.564 --> 0:14:29.084 to give up the presidency in twenty twenty eight. I've 0:14:29.084 --> 0:14:35.044 never seen any type of like warrant for that theory. Necessarily, No, 0:14:35.204 --> 0:14:36.604 I hope, I hope you're right. 0:14:36.644 --> 0:14:38.404 I hope you're right, and I do think that the 0:14:38.804 --> 0:14:42.204 I do think that it is good that we that 0:14:42.204 --> 0:14:44.564 that this was not disputed. I think that that's one 0:14:44.604 --> 0:14:48.684 of the very few silver linings of this election. And 0:14:48.764 --> 0:14:51.284 I do and I do really hope that kind of 0:14:51.484 --> 0:14:55.164 democracy holds holds enough that we have another free and 0:14:55.204 --> 0:14:58.484 fair election four years down the line. And until we 0:14:58.524 --> 0:15:00.484 see signs that that's not the case, I'm just going to, 0:15:00.844 --> 0:15:04.164 you know, assume that that's going to happen and that 0:15:04.324 --> 0:15:07.564 you know, our our democratic transition will work. Do you 0:15:07.804 --> 0:15:12.004 have any any parting thoughts anything you think we should 0:15:12.004 --> 0:15:15.724 be looking at, paying attention to kind of heading forward 0:15:16.364 --> 0:15:20.204 or just let's revisit when it becomes a little bit 0:15:20.204 --> 0:15:22.164 more clear. I am like one of the things that 0:15:22.204 --> 0:15:25.484 I'm very curious about is to see kind of how 0:15:25.524 --> 0:15:31.044 much the Muskian influence will will remain in the Trump administration, 0:15:31.284 --> 0:15:33.804 or if he'll turn on him sooner rather than later. 0:15:34.044 --> 0:15:36.844 It's something that I'm just like quite curious about. 0:15:37.164 --> 0:15:39.164 You know. Look just for like the pure economic stuff 0:15:39.164 --> 0:15:42.004 between the tariffs and between what I expect will be 0:15:42.044 --> 0:15:44.364 a lot of cronyism in the White House. I don't 0:15:44.364 --> 0:15:49.404 necessarily expect a marvel of economic efficiency exactly. So for me, 0:15:49.444 --> 0:15:50.844 and again that's kind of again more of like an 0:15:50.844 --> 0:15:53.164 advanced argument. Tariffs are one of those things that seem 0:15:53.204 --> 0:15:55.684 appealing on the surface, but the economics are really bad 0:15:55.724 --> 0:15:59.204 if you're an econ wonk. So yeah, I worry about that. 0:15:59.244 --> 0:16:00.924 And you know, I think Democrats a new way to 0:16:00.964 --> 0:16:05.564 like have attack lines on cronyism, which can which can 0:16:05.604 --> 0:16:08.244 dovetail well with populism of different kinds. I mean, I 0:16:08.244 --> 0:16:09.604 think they don't know which way to go. I think 0:16:09.604 --> 0:16:14.804 they're kind of like shocked at how much certain parts 0:16:14.804 --> 0:16:17.084 and it's again it's minority of Silicon Valley. It's probably 0:16:17.684 --> 0:16:20.764 a quarter or thirty percent or something. But I think 0:16:20.764 --> 0:16:23.244 they were not ready for how much money there would 0:16:23.284 --> 0:16:26.884 suddenly be from the crypto space and from the AI 0:16:26.964 --> 0:16:29.844 space and from things like that mostly working against them, 0:16:29.844 --> 0:16:31.244 and what it was going to be like to have 0:16:32.724 --> 0:16:34.844 these people who of course, of course Democrats went to 0:16:34.844 --> 0:16:37.204 discredit Elon Musk, and Elon Musk acted like a total 0:16:37.244 --> 0:16:39.964 fucking goofball at various points of the campaign and retweets 0:16:39.964 --> 0:16:42.244 a lot of unreliable information, but at the same time 0:16:42.484 --> 0:16:44.364 he is a different type of person who can vouch 0:16:44.724 --> 0:16:47.844 for Trump and give him some credibility, as are these 0:16:47.884 --> 0:16:53.124 podcasters and the various like podcasts rows of different kind, 0:16:53.364 --> 0:16:55.884 you know, as as his increasing number of minority supporters 0:16:55.964 --> 0:16:58.564 racial minority or ethnic minority, and so like, there are 0:16:58.564 --> 0:17:01.724 people that can like that can now vouch for Trump 0:17:01.764 --> 0:17:04.004 and kind of like and all the Democrats are kind 0:17:04.004 --> 0:17:08.284 of like uncool dorks pretty much, and like how can 0:17:08.284 --> 0:17:11.044 they they have alebrities? I mean, joy Read the MSNBC 0:17:11.124 --> 0:17:14.604 host was like, you know, Beyonce endorsed and blah blah. 0:17:14.604 --> 0:17:16.164 It's like, come on, like you can't. Like it's not 0:17:16.204 --> 0:17:21.364 like actually how you win elections, you know. But look, 0:17:21.404 --> 0:17:25.884 look Democrats, the sooner Democrats. I think this is controversial. 0:17:28.164 --> 0:17:31.684 Trump is likely to hang himself hang himself to be 0:17:31.764 --> 0:17:36.044 unpopular again in the normal ways that incumbents are unpopular 0:17:36.124 --> 0:17:42.364 in their second term, meaning spending too much money even 0:17:42.364 --> 0:17:44.524 though GUP is supposed for definit production, they're not. They 0:17:44.524 --> 0:17:46.764 probably have another big tax cut that we're not paying for, 0:17:46.964 --> 0:17:51.924 and engaging in unpopular foreign policy conduct and personal scandals 0:17:51.924 --> 0:17:54.044 and just general fatigue and bad decision making that you 0:17:54.124 --> 0:17:56.284 make when when you're seventy eight. I mean, Trump is 0:17:56.324 --> 0:17:58.124 a few months older than Biden was at the start 0:17:58.164 --> 0:18:01.644 of his first term, and so you know, I don't 0:18:02.124 --> 0:18:06.444 I don't know that the rhetoric of like existential crisis, 0:18:06.484 --> 0:18:08.724 like I don't think it was helpful to Harris and 0:18:08.764 --> 0:18:12.284 I don't know that helpful to Democrats now. And it's 0:18:12.324 --> 0:18:13.924 made a little easier when you actually have a clear 0:18:14.044 --> 0:18:15.764 verdict on an election night where Trump will win the 0:18:16.244 --> 0:18:19.444 popular vote. And so you know, looking forward to and 0:18:19.484 --> 0:18:22.124 by the way, I think the Democrats have taken this 0:18:22.244 --> 0:18:28.724 loss about as constructively as you possibly can. I have 0:18:28.924 --> 0:18:33.324 not seen a lot of liberal tiers necessarily right, you know, 0:18:33.404 --> 0:18:35.884 in general, Democrats recognize that we have to move to 0:18:36.084 --> 0:18:39.724 the center, which is hard for parties to recognize. And 0:18:39.764 --> 0:18:42.804 that seems like that seems good. So you know, look 0:18:42.844 --> 0:18:47.204 as far as like having steering the country back toward 0:18:47.364 --> 0:18:49.764 I don't know. Maybe I'm neglecting the damage Trump could 0:18:49.844 --> 0:18:51.404 do in four years. 0:18:52.684 --> 0:18:54.884 Yeah, I mean, I think there is a lot of 0:18:54.964 --> 0:18:58.084 damage that people don't really talk about that he that 0:18:58.164 --> 0:19:01.524 he could do in four years. You know, some one 0:19:01.524 --> 0:19:05.484 of the things we haven't talked about is science, and 0:19:05.844 --> 0:19:08.084 we know what happened during Trump one point zero with 0:19:08.124 --> 0:19:12.604 science funding, with age funding, research funding, and the types 0:19:12.644 --> 0:19:16.004 of research that suddenly could not get any funding, you know, 0:19:16.284 --> 0:19:19.564 fetal cells, stem cell research, like a lot of things 0:19:19.644 --> 0:19:23.444 that are crucially important, and people are afraid that that's 0:19:23.484 --> 0:19:29.244 going to happen again. RFK, you know, being potentially very 0:19:29.284 --> 0:19:32.524 influential in the administration. I think that there are some 0:19:32.564 --> 0:19:35.364 effects like that that we're not even thinking about, you know, 0:19:35.644 --> 0:19:38.524 or like religion, you know, bringing religion into classrooms, what 0:19:38.684 --> 0:19:41.964 happens with federal judge appointments. So right now, we just 0:19:42.044 --> 0:19:47.244 had the Louisiana requirement to put ten commandments in every 0:19:47.244 --> 0:19:50.004 classroom that was actually struck down. We're going to see 0:19:50.004 --> 0:19:52.444 an appeals process there, right all of those appointments that 0:19:52.484 --> 0:19:56.244 Trump is going to be making, changing the judicial system. 0:19:56.844 --> 0:19:58.644 We'll see what happens to the Supreme Court. You know, 0:19:58.684 --> 0:20:02.084 what are there retires, who retires or dies? You know, 0:20:02.604 --> 0:20:06.084 I hope no one dies, and how Trumpian the Supreme 0:20:06.084 --> 0:20:09.244 Court becomes. Because there's a difference between conservative and Trumpian, right, 0:20:09.404 --> 0:20:12.764 There's a big difference between you know, your regular conservative 0:20:13.084 --> 0:20:16.404 judge and a Trump judge appointee. So I think that 0:20:16.444 --> 0:20:19.004 there are lots of effects like that that we haven't 0:20:19.004 --> 0:20:23.084 talked about yet that Trump could very much put in place. 0:20:23.124 --> 0:20:26.404 In four years. I think we will potentially see things 0:20:26.444 --> 0:20:29.404 that are going to be incredibly harmful. 0:20:30.684 --> 0:20:34.364 There's some good stuff. No one good thing is I 0:20:34.364 --> 0:20:37.644 think we'll probably end up getting a ban on gain 0:20:37.684 --> 0:20:39.884 a function research which may have been responsible for the 0:20:39.924 --> 0:20:43.524 COVID pandemic and I think is from an expected value standpoint, 0:20:43.524 --> 0:20:44.884 has negative expected values. 0:20:44.964 --> 0:20:46.404 So that's good. 0:20:48.564 --> 0:20:51.244 You know, I could probably point out a few other thing. 0:20:51.244 --> 0:20:53.124 I don't want to necessarily give people a laundry list 0:20:53.164 --> 0:20:55.524 of every single position that that Nates hold, but yeah, 0:20:55.644 --> 0:20:58.164 that Nate holds. But yet, Look, one reason why I 0:20:58.164 --> 0:21:03.244 find myself being a bit less worried about Trump than 0:21:03.284 --> 0:21:05.484 I might have been with that larger victory is that 0:21:05.524 --> 0:21:08.004 it does create more of a mandate for more mainstream 0:21:08.684 --> 0:21:12.284 cabinet members to come in, right, you know, Secretary of 0:21:12.284 --> 0:21:15.084 say it's a good job. But the fact that that 0:21:15.204 --> 0:21:18.364 Marco Ribio one of the more I mean he ran 0:21:18.364 --> 0:21:20.084 a band president campaign Tway sixteen, but one of the 0:21:20.084 --> 0:21:25.404 more normal electable GOP senators and maybe the most important role. 0:21:25.524 --> 0:21:28.244 I mean that that seems valuable. 0:21:28.284 --> 0:21:31.524 Well, right, here's hoping. And you know, and I do 0:21:31.604 --> 0:21:35.324 think that if we see I hope that we see politics. 0:21:36.084 --> 0:21:38.564 You know, I would love to see politics moving more 0:21:38.604 --> 0:21:41.244 to the center. I would love to see, you know, 0:21:41.324 --> 0:21:43.684 third parties become stronger. There are lots of things I 0:21:43.684 --> 0:21:46.364 would love to see. And if any of those end 0:21:46.444 --> 0:21:49.484 up being you know, downstream effects from this, that would 0:21:49.484 --> 0:21:50.124 be wonderful. 0:21:52.204 --> 0:21:56.284 Mariet, we can now guiltlessly talk about poker. So you 0:21:56.324 --> 0:22:01.644 want to do that, Let's do it after this break. 0:22:16.084 --> 0:22:21.924 Okay, let's now guiltlessly talk about poker. NIDE. So we 0:22:22.204 --> 0:22:27.204 are now finished with the North American Poker Tour, the 0:22:27.324 --> 0:22:31.924 NAPT which is the Poker Stars flagship event in North America. 0:22:32.404 --> 0:22:35.524 So there were the main event had almost nine hundred players, 0:22:36.444 --> 0:22:40.924 and I was lucky enough to be four of those players. 0:22:42.684 --> 0:22:47.244 Four of those So despite Norman Chad's scolding, you're still 0:22:47.324 --> 0:22:48.284 rebuying into these things. 0:22:48.684 --> 0:22:53.444 I am still rebuying despite the scolding that I received. Yes, 0:22:53.684 --> 0:22:58.644 so I the first Okay, so I played. So day 0:22:58.644 --> 0:23:01.644 one of the main event was November fifth, so that 0:23:01.844 --> 0:23:04.004 was kind of a big day in the country, and 0:23:04.084 --> 0:23:06.364 I was doing quite well. You know, everything was fine. 0:23:06.404 --> 0:23:08.684 I had plenty of chips. I never had a lot 0:23:08.684 --> 0:23:10.924 of chips, but I was never you know, I was 0:23:11.004 --> 0:23:14.164 kind of hanging in there. And then as the as 0:23:14.164 --> 0:23:16.924 it got late, you know, second to last level of 0:23:16.964 --> 0:23:20.844 the night, when it became quite clear that this was 0:23:20.884 --> 0:23:23.964 not going to end well for Kamala Harris, that Trump 0:23:24.004 --> 0:23:26.004