1 00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:28,844 Speaker 1: Pushkin, Welcome back to Risky Business, A show about making 2 00:00:28,884 --> 00:00:31,444 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 3 00:00:31,124 --> 00:00:36,884 Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. Today the election's over. What am 4 00:00:36,924 --> 00:00:38,284 Speaker 2: I doing today? 5 00:00:39,844 --> 00:00:42,844 Speaker 1: Today? Nate is having an existential crisis over the fact 6 00:00:42,884 --> 00:00:45,684 Speaker 1: that the election is over and he no longer knows. 7 00:00:45,564 --> 00:00:50,444 Speaker 2: Who I was so thrilled I gave a talk in Orlando, Florida. 8 00:00:51,324 --> 00:00:54,124 Speaker 2: It was kind of like the official, official last election 9 00:00:54,204 --> 00:00:57,204 Speaker 2: obligation I had, and the talks done at one thirty 10 00:00:57,244 --> 00:01:01,364 Speaker 2: and I dovetailed like the big Mexican strip ball restaurant 11 00:01:01,404 --> 00:01:03,444 Speaker 2: and get like the world's largest plate in he doesn't 12 00:01:03,444 --> 00:01:05,404 Speaker 2: have margarita, and I'm like, fucking yeah, I do. This 13 00:01:05,484 --> 00:01:09,044 Speaker 2: election's over, but the implications for our country are not over. 14 00:01:09,524 --> 00:01:13,124 Speaker 2: Talking a little bit about Donald Trump's cabinet picks, the 15 00:01:13,164 --> 00:01:16,324 Speaker 2: influence of the community I call the river people like 16 00:01:16,364 --> 00:01:20,484 Speaker 2: Elon Musk, and looking a little bit ahead dangerously toward 17 00:01:21,004 --> 00:01:23,164 Speaker 2: twenty twenty six and the midterm map. 18 00:01:23,284 --> 00:01:25,764 Speaker 1: And after that will ship gears a little bit and 19 00:01:25,964 --> 00:01:29,924 Speaker 1: talk about the NAPT the North American Poker Tour where 20 00:01:30,044 --> 00:01:33,884 Speaker 1: I played last week and had some good results, including 21 00:01:33,964 --> 00:01:37,924 Speaker 1: a fourteenth place finish in the main event. So we'll 22 00:01:37,964 --> 00:01:40,524 Speaker 1: talk a little bit about that, about the strategy, the 23 00:01:40,604 --> 00:01:43,924 Speaker 1: thinking behind it, and our poker plans for the future. 24 00:01:53,804 --> 00:01:56,964 Speaker 1: Since we last spoke, Nate Trump has started making some 25 00:01:57,044 --> 00:02:00,564 Speaker 1: of his initial appointments, and so we're starting to see 26 00:02:00,564 --> 00:02:03,684 Speaker 1: the kind of initial trends outlines of what Trump two 27 00:02:03,684 --> 00:02:06,004 Speaker 1: point zero, what the administration is going to look like. 28 00:02:06,324 --> 00:02:10,804 Speaker 1: Some of those appointments seem to be more riverian than 29 00:02:11,044 --> 00:02:14,204 Speaker 1: villagey in nature. Let's talk a little bit about that. 30 00:02:14,284 --> 00:02:17,764 Speaker 1: Let's talk about river versus village and what the Trump 31 00:02:17,804 --> 00:02:21,604 Speaker 1: administration seems like it's going to be as of now. 32 00:02:21,924 --> 00:02:24,964 Speaker 2: Yeah, So the river is my name for this kind 33 00:02:24,964 --> 00:02:28,364 Speaker 2: of psychographic region of the world of people who take 34 00:02:28,404 --> 00:02:31,964 Speaker 2: calculator risks for a living. So Silicon Valley and Wall 35 00:02:32,004 --> 00:02:35,764 Speaker 2: Street in Las Vegas, both the casino and at least 36 00:02:35,804 --> 00:02:38,764 Speaker 2: a skilled game players, poker players, sports betters and the like, 37 00:02:39,924 --> 00:02:45,084 Speaker 2: and the river had gotten much more anti village. The 38 00:02:45,204 --> 00:02:48,204 Speaker 2: village is the name for like the establishment the world 39 00:02:48,204 --> 00:02:50,804 Speaker 2: that Kamala Harras comes from, so Harvard and the New 40 00:02:50,884 --> 00:02:54,084 Speaker 2: York Times, and a government with Democrat is in charge, 41 00:02:54,204 --> 00:02:57,964 Speaker 2: very risk averse establishment. The expert class and that class 42 00:02:58,004 --> 00:03:02,444 Speaker 2: had like a bad week last week. I think, you know, 43 00:03:02,524 --> 00:03:07,164 Speaker 2: will Elon be formerly part of the cabinet, I don't know. 44 00:03:07,244 --> 00:03:09,244 Speaker 2: I guess you can bet at polymarket and the Ohs 45 00:03:09,244 --> 00:03:13,044 Speaker 2: are in favor. I'm not sure that Elon necessarily wants 46 00:03:13,044 --> 00:03:14,764 Speaker 2: to have a cabinet seat. I'm not sure that he 47 00:03:14,844 --> 00:03:16,244 Speaker 2: needs to have a cabinet seat to have a lot 48 00:03:16,284 --> 00:03:19,644 Speaker 2: of influence over the over the trajectory of the administration. 49 00:03:20,884 --> 00:03:24,124 Speaker 2: You know, typically Republicans are also more willing than Democrats 50 00:03:24,164 --> 00:03:30,564 Speaker 2: to appoint business people to cabinet seats. So for Treasury Secretary, 51 00:03:30,604 --> 00:03:34,844 Speaker 2: for example, Scott Bessen, a hedge fund executive, is under consideration. 52 00:03:35,604 --> 00:03:37,724 Speaker 2: Trump has, however, also made a lot of very kind 53 00:03:37,724 --> 00:03:44,964 Speaker 2: of normal appointments. Elis Stefanak, for example, who is a 54 00:03:45,404 --> 00:03:49,324 Speaker 2: used to be kind of moderate Republican member of Congress. 55 00:03:49,484 --> 00:03:52,124 Speaker 2: Is uh is going to be the UN ambassador or 56 00:03:52,164 --> 00:03:54,564 Speaker 2: some of the Republicans win the House by enough seats 57 00:03:54,564 --> 00:03:55,924 Speaker 2: that they can keep the House if they lose a 58 00:03:55,924 --> 00:03:57,404 Speaker 2: couple of seats, which is actually like a little bit 59 00:03:57,404 --> 00:04:00,364 Speaker 2: of a risk. Marco Rubio is set to be Secretary 60 00:04:00,364 --> 00:04:04,164 Speaker 2: of State. Lee Zelden, a former New York Long Island representative, 61 00:04:05,004 --> 00:04:11,324 Speaker 2: relatively moderate, relatively is under considered for EPA administrator. So 62 00:04:11,804 --> 00:04:16,244 Speaker 2: and there are some more MAGA epics. H Stephen Miller, 63 00:04:16,404 --> 00:04:19,564 Speaker 2: who has very conservative views on race and immigration, is 64 00:04:19,604 --> 00:04:24,524 Speaker 2: the Deputy chief of Staff for policy. But you know, 65 00:04:24,564 --> 00:04:33,244 Speaker 2: Trump is how to put this, Trump's cabinet nominations, I 66 00:04:33,284 --> 00:04:36,964 Speaker 2: would say, on balance so far with Rubio, for example, 67 00:04:37,124 --> 00:04:43,884 Speaker 2: are maybe not quite what the village would most have feared. 68 00:04:44,204 --> 00:04:46,524 Speaker 2: I don't think. I mean, I'm sure there will be 69 00:04:47,164 --> 00:04:49,564 Speaker 2: one or two or three or four that they really dislike. 70 00:04:49,684 --> 00:04:53,404 Speaker 2: Steven Miller is certainly one of those. For example. We'll 71 00:04:53,404 --> 00:04:56,604 Speaker 2: see about Attorney General is a very important one, for instance. 72 00:04:58,484 --> 00:05:01,604 Speaker 2: But you know, maybe that reflects a little bit of 73 00:05:01,644 --> 00:05:06,924 Speaker 2: the a little bit of the the River's influence, just maybe. 74 00:05:06,964 --> 00:05:08,684 Speaker 2: I mean, you know, I would say the rivers should 75 00:05:08,724 --> 00:05:13,204 Speaker 2: in principle be in favor of more rational governance. That's 76 00:05:13,244 --> 00:05:16,764 Speaker 2: kind of pro business and pro growth. Doesn't do stupid things, right, 77 00:05:18,444 --> 00:05:20,564 Speaker 2: you know. Now in practice they get very red pilled, 78 00:05:20,604 --> 00:05:22,644 Speaker 2: and so you don't have the most intelligent version of 79 00:05:22,644 --> 00:05:26,964 Speaker 2: the arguments coming from like Elon Musk for example. But 80 00:05:27,044 --> 00:05:30,244 Speaker 2: you know, like if I were, let me put it 81 00:05:30,284 --> 00:05:36,004 Speaker 2: like this, if Trump called me, and then I'd say, well, 82 00:05:36,044 --> 00:05:38,044 Speaker 2: you want to be popular, don't do a bunch of 83 00:05:38,044 --> 00:05:39,884 Speaker 2: fucking tariffs. It might be popular in the service, but 84 00:05:39,924 --> 00:05:43,244 Speaker 2: it'll make the economy worse. Don't deport a bunch of immigrants. 85 00:05:43,244 --> 00:05:46,444 Speaker 2: We can have a more organized conversation about that, right, 86 00:05:46,524 --> 00:05:49,564 Speaker 2: And then maybe the other stuff. Okay, whatever you're Trump, 87 00:05:49,564 --> 00:05:51,444 Speaker 2: it's not and you're not gonna do what I want anyway, Right, 88 00:05:52,524 --> 00:05:55,564 Speaker 2: But you know, can they get Trump to moderate on 89 00:05:55,644 --> 00:05:58,524 Speaker 2: these issues? Then? I don't know. That remains to be seen. 90 00:05:58,804 --> 00:06:00,764 Speaker 2: And the answer when it comes to Trump and moderation, 91 00:06:00,844 --> 00:06:03,044 Speaker 2: on the one hand, is never been on anything. On 92 00:06:03,084 --> 00:06:05,804 Speaker 2: the other hand, it's not always clear where Trump's passions 93 00:06:05,924 --> 00:06:10,844 Speaker 2: lie and what he really cares about beyond himself. You know, 94 00:06:10,884 --> 00:06:13,204 Speaker 2: there was some poling that found that one reason that 95 00:06:14,324 --> 00:06:16,804 Speaker 2: Harris's message on abortion didn't resonate as much as they 96 00:06:16,804 --> 00:06:20,004 Speaker 2: were hoping for is because voters just didn't really believe 97 00:06:20,044 --> 00:06:24,844 Speaker 2: that Trump was passionate about the abortion stuff. Right, So 98 00:06:24,884 --> 00:06:27,244 Speaker 2: where will he be guided, I think is an open question. 99 00:06:27,804 --> 00:06:30,324 Speaker 1: Yeah. I actually had a really interesting conversation right before 100 00:06:30,364 --> 00:06:33,204 Speaker 1: the election with a poker player who will remain nameless, 101 00:06:33,964 --> 00:06:37,684 Speaker 1: who was not going to be voting and was kind 102 00:06:37,724 --> 00:06:41,164 Speaker 1: of saying that, you know, oh, obviously, you know, I'm 103 00:06:41,284 --> 00:06:43,884 Speaker 1: pro choice, but I don't think I don't think that 104 00:06:43,924 --> 00:06:46,204 Speaker 1: Trump is going to do anything bad for abortion. That's 105 00:06:46,244 --> 00:06:48,604 Speaker 1: not an issue that's going to sway me one way 106 00:06:48,684 --> 00:06:51,084 Speaker 1: or the other because Trump is just leaving it up 107 00:06:51,124 --> 00:06:53,524 Speaker 1: to the States. So just like parroting back kind of 108 00:06:53,284 --> 00:06:57,204 Speaker 1: that message. And this was a very smart person, and 109 00:06:57,684 --> 00:07:01,044 Speaker 1: it just it made me realize that that, yes, that 110 00:07:01,164 --> 00:07:05,124 Speaker 1: a lot of people don't really you know, it's one 111 00:07:05,164 --> 00:07:07,484 Speaker 1: of these like I don't think it will actually happen 112 00:07:07,764 --> 00:07:11,084 Speaker 1: types of things, and I'd like i'd like to believe 113 00:07:11,124 --> 00:07:14,244 Speaker 1: that it won't. And I think that that's psychologically kind 114 00:07:14,244 --> 00:07:18,404 Speaker 1: of that kind of hopeful or wilful ignorance or trying 115 00:07:18,444 --> 00:07:21,364 Speaker 1: to say like, I don't think that's gonna happen. Oh, 116 00:07:21,484 --> 00:07:23,804 Speaker 1: you know, it's not really that bad. I think that 117 00:07:23,804 --> 00:07:26,284 Speaker 1: that is actually a very major thing. But I do 118 00:07:26,404 --> 00:07:29,644 Speaker 1: actually wonder you know, we're talking about the river versus 119 00:07:29,644 --> 00:07:33,284 Speaker 1: the village. Trump is very much of the village, right. 120 00:07:33,364 --> 00:07:36,804 Speaker 1: He is very establishment, you know, old New York family 121 00:07:37,764 --> 00:07:41,284 Speaker 1: money like he and the only time he the times 122 00:07:41,284 --> 00:07:43,884 Speaker 1: he's tried to foray into the river. Like the casino business. 123 00:07:43,884 --> 00:07:47,564 Speaker 1: He's bankrupted it, right. He has proven himself to not 124 00:07:47,684 --> 00:07:52,644 Speaker 1: be very adept when he does Riverian things. So I 125 00:07:52,684 --> 00:07:54,884 Speaker 1: think that I think that we do need to realize that. 126 00:07:54,924 --> 00:07:57,964 Speaker 1: I think he is the village as well. Elon Musk, 127 00:07:58,004 --> 00:08:01,324 Speaker 1: of course, does represent the river, and I don't think 128 00:08:01,724 --> 00:08:05,204 Speaker 1: so far we have seen signs that with or without 129 00:08:05,204 --> 00:08:08,364 Speaker 1: an appointment. It seems like, at least for now, he's 130 00:08:08,404 --> 00:08:11,124 Speaker 1: still on the inn with Trump, you know, putting him 131 00:08:11,164 --> 00:08:15,684 Speaker 1: on the call with Zelenski talking about foreign policy when 132 00:08:16,364 --> 00:08:19,004 Speaker 1: that seems too you know, why in the world would 133 00:08:19,044 --> 00:08:21,404 Speaker 1: he be doing that. I think that that's a really 134 00:08:21,444 --> 00:08:25,204 Speaker 1: interesting trend, and we do see I think this confluence 135 00:08:25,404 --> 00:08:29,604 Speaker 1: of you know, Silicon Valley technocrats, etc. Big money coming 136 00:08:29,724 --> 00:08:34,324 Speaker 1: to Washington in an informal advisory way. That to me, 137 00:08:34,524 --> 00:08:36,444 Speaker 1: and I don't want to you know, I'm not trying 138 00:08:36,484 --> 00:08:39,484 Speaker 1: to draw too many parallels that might not hold, but 139 00:08:40,604 --> 00:08:44,244 Speaker 1: to me, it's actually kind of evocative of what happened 140 00:08:44,324 --> 00:08:47,164 Speaker 1: when Putin came to power initially, where you had a 141 00:08:47,204 --> 00:08:50,044 Speaker 1: lot of oligarchs and a lot of you know, big money, 142 00:08:50,044 --> 00:08:52,324 Speaker 1: a lot of big business people backing him and thinking 143 00:08:52,564 --> 00:08:53,924 Speaker 1: you know this is going to be good for us, 144 00:08:53,964 --> 00:08:55,404 Speaker 1: this is going to be good for our bottom line, 145 00:08:55,404 --> 00:08:57,404 Speaker 1: and we're going to be able to control him. And 146 00:08:57,484 --> 00:09:00,324 Speaker 1: obviously what happened was a lot of them are now 147 00:09:00,404 --> 00:09:04,244 Speaker 1: dead or in jail or in exile because Putin was 148 00:09:04,284 --> 00:09:07,924 Speaker 1: absolutely not controllable and ended up turning on basically all 149 00:09:07,964 --> 00:09:10,084 Speaker 1: of the people who brought him into power. So I 150 00:09:10,084 --> 00:09:15,084 Speaker 1: think that that's an interesting semi parallel and I'm very 151 00:09:15,084 --> 00:09:19,164 Speaker 1: curious to see whether Elon Musk and others like him 152 00:09:19,164 --> 00:09:22,724 Speaker 1: are going to be able to maintain their influence in 153 00:09:22,844 --> 00:09:25,644 Speaker 1: Washington or whether we're going to see something like that 154 00:09:25,724 --> 00:09:28,244 Speaker 1: as well, because we know that Trump has no problems 155 00:09:28,524 --> 00:09:30,844 Speaker 1: turning on people who were allies of his right. He's 156 00:09:30,884 --> 00:09:32,924 Speaker 1: done that. He did that in Trump one point zero 157 00:09:33,724 --> 00:09:36,164 Speaker 1: and Trump two point oho is probably going to be 158 00:09:36,204 --> 00:09:38,084 Speaker 1: more brazen, although as you say, who knows. 159 00:09:39,524 --> 00:09:41,364 Speaker 2: I mean, so in the book, I don't put Trump 160 00:09:41,364 --> 00:09:44,404 Speaker 2: in either the village or the river. I you know, 161 00:09:44,484 --> 00:09:46,724 Speaker 2: I think he wishes he could have been in the village. 162 00:09:46,764 --> 00:09:50,004 Speaker 2: I think he isn't. And at some level, if you 163 00:09:50,164 --> 00:09:51,404 Speaker 2: if you're not wanted, then you're. 164 00:09:51,284 --> 00:09:53,564 Speaker 1: Not fairpoint fair point. 165 00:09:54,324 --> 00:09:55,364 Speaker 2: I mean, look, I don't. 166 00:09:57,364 --> 00:09:57,804 Speaker 1: I don't know. 167 00:09:57,884 --> 00:10:01,724 Speaker 2: I can't like, I can't get into like the Trump 168 00:10:01,804 --> 00:10:06,524 Speaker 2: putin comparisons, he won a fair election by quite a bit. 169 00:10:08,484 --> 00:10:10,684 Speaker 2: He won a fair election a decent amount in part 170 00:10:10,764 --> 00:10:13,844 Speaker 2: by like winning over lots of votes from lots of 171 00:10:13,884 --> 00:10:17,324 Speaker 2: like Hispanic and Asian people, from younger voters, and has 172 00:10:17,324 --> 00:10:20,364 Speaker 2: a more like diverse coalition, And like, I don't know, 173 00:10:20,444 --> 00:10:23,564 Speaker 2: I you know, I don't know. I uh. And we've 174 00:10:23,564 --> 00:10:26,404 Speaker 2: talked about this a little bit last week, but like, okay, 175 00:10:26,484 --> 00:10:31,204 Speaker 2: let me ask you, Maria. Yeah, does the fact that 176 00:10:31,244 --> 00:10:34,804 Speaker 2: Trump won by this convincing march and have you update 177 00:10:34,844 --> 00:10:37,244 Speaker 2: your views on Trump at all? 178 00:10:37,844 --> 00:10:41,044 Speaker 1: It does not have me update my views on Trump himself. 179 00:10:41,204 --> 00:10:44,444 Speaker 1: I still think that Trump is someone who only cares 180 00:10:44,884 --> 00:10:50,604 Speaker 1: about number one. It does make me realize that kind 181 00:10:50,604 --> 00:10:57,484 Speaker 1: of the discontent is goes much deeper than I realized. 182 00:10:57,564 --> 00:11:02,244 Speaker 1: And I do think that The other thing here is 183 00:11:02,324 --> 00:11:04,764 Speaker 1: we've talked about the incumbency effect on the show in 184 00:11:04,804 --> 00:11:08,244 Speaker 1: the past, and it does seem kind of worldwide right 185 00:11:08,284 --> 00:11:10,284 Speaker 1: now that it's kind of Reber saying that, you know, 186 00:11:10,324 --> 00:11:12,844 Speaker 1: with inflation, with all of these things, incumbent parties are 187 00:11:12,844 --> 00:11:16,164 Speaker 1: actually not doing that well. That instead we do see 188 00:11:16,284 --> 00:11:19,364 Speaker 1: people wanting change, and so I would not be at 189 00:11:19,364 --> 00:11:22,204 Speaker 1: all surprised. You know, let's let's talk a little bit. 190 00:11:22,524 --> 00:11:25,084 Speaker 1: You know, you kind of hinted that we'll talk about 191 00:11:25,124 --> 00:11:27,404 Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, twenty twenty eight. I wouldn't be at 192 00:11:27,404 --> 00:11:30,084 Speaker 1: all surprised if the Democratic parties make more gains in 193 00:11:30,084 --> 00:11:34,084 Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, because you know, when you're the establishment, 194 00:11:34,604 --> 00:11:37,364 Speaker 1: it's much more difficult to kind of play the victimhood 195 00:11:37,404 --> 00:11:41,404 Speaker 1: card and say, oh, you know, it's the establishment versus us. 196 00:11:41,724 --> 00:11:45,284 Speaker 1: Now we are the establishment, So I think that we 197 00:11:45,444 --> 00:11:48,044 Speaker 1: might start seeing kind of things go the other way, 198 00:11:48,124 --> 00:11:51,124 Speaker 1: because I think that some of the vote wasn't necessarily 199 00:11:51,204 --> 00:11:53,244 Speaker 1: a vote for Trump so much as a vote for 200 00:11:53,764 --> 00:11:56,364 Speaker 1: I'm not happy, I'm not doing well. These people in power, 201 00:11:56,724 --> 00:11:59,364 Speaker 1: you know, seem to be responsible, so like, let's put 202 00:11:59,364 --> 00:12:00,964 Speaker 1: someone else in power and hope for the best. 203 00:12:01,524 --> 00:12:04,724 Speaker 2: You're right, Like, relatively speaking, Harris actually lost less vote 204 00:12:04,724 --> 00:12:07,444 Speaker 2: share than a lot of incoment parties around the world. 205 00:12:07,444 --> 00:12:10,244 Speaker 2: I mean, I think the US is somewhat exceptional in 206 00:12:10,244 --> 00:12:14,564 Speaker 2: certain ways, but also I mean, yeah, in starting on 207 00:12:14,684 --> 00:12:20,364 Speaker 2: January twentieth, all these headwinds that Democrats face become a tailwind. 208 00:12:21,804 --> 00:12:26,364 Speaker 2: Democrats almost flipped the House. Looks like they'll be something 209 00:12:26,444 --> 00:12:28,804 Speaker 2: like three or four seats short. So you are going 210 00:12:28,884 --> 00:12:35,164 Speaker 2: to have like a effectively freedom caucus led majority, which 211 00:12:35,204 --> 00:12:37,524 Speaker 2: will not always disagree, will not always agree with what 212 00:12:37,604 --> 00:12:40,684 Speaker 2: you might formally have called the up establishment majority. All 213 00:12:40,684 --> 00:12:42,604 Speaker 2: of it is pretty maga now for the most part. 214 00:12:44,084 --> 00:12:48,964 Speaker 2: And Democrats held their losses to four Senate seats, which 215 00:12:49,004 --> 00:12:51,244 Speaker 2: sounds like I'm spinning. But here's the thing. So you 216 00:12:51,244 --> 00:12:55,004 Speaker 2: have forty seven seats now, and you're gonna have Trump 217 00:12:55,884 --> 00:12:58,604 Speaker 2: gable to appoint the cabinet nominees he wants within reason. 218 00:13:00,444 --> 00:13:04,244 Speaker 2: Candemocrats get back to fifty Senate seats by twenty twenty eight, 219 00:13:04,884 --> 00:13:08,004 Speaker 2: in which case we have a President Shapiro or President 220 00:13:08,044 --> 00:13:11,844 Speaker 2: Gretchen Whitmer or ever else. Gavin Newsom, I think probably 221 00:13:11,884 --> 00:13:14,084 Speaker 2: thinks he's gonna get it that I think that time. 222 00:13:15,724 --> 00:13:19,884 Speaker 2: So for Gavin Newsom, I'm just kidding. Uh, you know, 223 00:13:19,924 --> 00:13:22,564 Speaker 2: can they have a democratic Senate? And the answer is yes. 224 00:13:22,604 --> 00:13:25,524 Speaker 2: It's not that hopeless for Democrats because they need three 225 00:13:25,564 --> 00:13:27,324 Speaker 2: pickups if they win the presidency. They can win with 226 00:13:27,324 --> 00:13:31,524 Speaker 2: fifty to fifty. There are two races in North Carolina 227 00:13:31,604 --> 00:13:34,244 Speaker 2: between now and twenty twenty eight. There is one race 228 00:13:34,284 --> 00:13:36,604 Speaker 2: in Wisconsin that's gup held, and there's one in Maine 229 00:13:36,604 --> 00:13:39,484 Speaker 2: where Susan Collins keeps holding on every year, but now 230 00:13:39,524 --> 00:13:41,724 Speaker 2: her luck might run out, right, So Democrats need to 231 00:13:41,764 --> 00:13:45,364 Speaker 2: win three of those four without losing any of their own. 232 00:13:45,444 --> 00:13:48,004 Speaker 2: There are some other longer shot bets. Ohio, where Shared 233 00:13:48,044 --> 00:13:51,964 Speaker 2: Brown lost has a special election because of Jade Vance 234 00:13:51,964 --> 00:13:55,204 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty six, and that's a race Democrats will 235 00:13:55,204 --> 00:13:58,044 Speaker 2: surely contest. If he ran again in a more blue environment, 236 00:13:58,804 --> 00:14:02,404 Speaker 2: he might be in a toss up race there. But yeah, 237 00:14:02,404 --> 00:14:06,764 Speaker 2: look we're kind of going back to like, look, all 238 00:14:07,124 --> 00:14:09,604 Speaker 2: the risks, the existential risks to democracy, I think think 239 00:14:09,644 --> 00:14:15,244 Speaker 2: are are less now because you had a clear verdict. 240 00:14:15,284 --> 00:14:17,964 Speaker 2: You didn't have a disputed verdict, Harris, Thank goodness didn't 241 00:14:17,964 --> 00:14:20,324 Speaker 2: dispute the verdict. I'm sure Trump would have if the 242 00:14:20,364 --> 00:14:24,804 Speaker 2: same result had been only in their foot. You know, look, 243 00:14:24,844 --> 00:14:26,564 Speaker 2: you'll have commentary to say, well, what he doesn't want 244 00:14:26,564 --> 00:14:29,084 Speaker 2: to give up the presidency in twenty twenty eight. I've 245 00:14:29,084 --> 00:14:35,044 Speaker 2: never seen any type of like warrant for that theory. Necessarily, No, 246 00:14:35,204 --> 00:14:36,604 Speaker 2: I hope, I hope you're right. 247 00:14:36,644 --> 00:14:38,404 Speaker 1: I hope you're right, and I do think that the 248 00:14:38,804 --> 00:14:42,204 Speaker 1: I do think that it is good that we that 249 00:14:42,204 --> 00:14:44,564 Speaker 1: that this was not disputed. I think that that's one 250 00:14:44,604 --> 00:14:48,684 Speaker 1: of the very few silver linings of this election. And 251 00:14:48,764 --> 00:14:51,284 Speaker 1: I do and I do really hope that kind of 252 00:14:51,484 --> 00:14:55,164 Speaker 1: democracy holds holds enough that we have another free and 253 00:14:55,204 --> 00:14:58,484 Speaker 1: fair election four years down the line. And until we 254 00:14:58,524 --> 00:15:00,484 Speaker 1: see signs that that's not the case, I'm just going to, 255 00:15:00,844 --> 00:15:04,164 Speaker 1: you know, assume that that's going to happen and that 256 00:15:04,324 --> 00:15:07,564 Speaker 1: you know, our our democratic transition will work. Do you 257 00:15:07,804 --> 00:15:12,004 Speaker 1: have any any parting thoughts anything you think we should 258 00:15:12,004 --> 00:15:15,724 Speaker 1: be looking at, paying attention to kind of heading forward 259 00:15:16,364 --> 00:15:20,204 Speaker 1: or just let's revisit when it becomes a little bit 260 00:15:20,204 --> 00:15:22,164 Speaker 1: more clear. I am like one of the things that 261 00:15:22,204 --> 00:15:25,484 Speaker 1: I'm very curious about is to see kind of how 262 00:15:25,524 --> 00:15:31,044 Speaker 1: much the Muskian influence will will remain in the Trump administration, 263 00:15:31,284 --> 00:15:33,804 Speaker 1: or if he'll turn on him sooner rather than later. 264 00:15:34,044 --> 00:15:36,844 Speaker 1: It's something that I'm just like quite curious about. 265 00:15:37,164 --> 00:15:39,164 Speaker 2: You know. Look just for like the pure economic stuff 266 00:15:39,164 --> 00:15:42,004 Speaker 2: between the tariffs and between what I expect will be 267 00:15:42,044 --> 00:15:44,364 Speaker 2: a lot of cronyism in the White House. I don't 268 00:15:44,364 --> 00:15:49,404 Speaker 2: necessarily expect a marvel of economic efficiency exactly. So for me, 269 00:15:49,444 --> 00:15:50,844 Speaker 2: and again that's kind of again more of like an 270 00:15:50,844 --> 00:15:53,164 Speaker 2: advanced argument. Tariffs are one of those things that seem 271 00:15:53,204 --> 00:15:55,684 Speaker 2: appealing on the surface, but the economics are really bad 272 00:15:55,724 --> 00:15:59,204 Speaker 2: if you're an econ wonk. So yeah, I worry about that. 273 00:15:59,244 --> 00:16:00,924 Speaker 2: And you know, I think Democrats a new way to 274 00:16:00,964 --> 00:16:05,564 Speaker 2: like have attack lines on cronyism, which can which can 275 00:16:05,604 --> 00:16:08,244 Speaker 2: dovetail well with populism of different kinds. I mean, I 276 00:16:08,244 --> 00:16:09,604 Speaker 2: think they don't know which way to go. I think 277 00:16:09,604 --> 00:16:14,804 Speaker 2: they're kind of like shocked at how much certain parts 278 00:16:14,804 --> 00:16:17,084 Speaker 2: and it's again it's minority of Silicon Valley. It's probably 279 00:16:17,684 --> 00:16:20,764 Speaker 2: a quarter or thirty percent or something. But I think 280 00:16:20,764 --> 00:16:23,244 Speaker 2: they were not ready for how much money there would 281 00:16:23,284 --> 00:16:26,884 Speaker 2: suddenly be from the crypto space and from the AI 282 00:16:26,964 --> 00:16:29,844 Speaker 2: space and from things like that mostly working against them, 283 00:16:29,844 --> 00:16:31,244 Speaker 2: and what it was going to be like to have 284 00:16:32,724 --> 00:16:34,844 Speaker 2: these people who of course, of course Democrats went to 285 00:16:34,844 --> 00:16:37,204 Speaker 2: discredit Elon Musk, and Elon Musk acted like a total 286 00:16:37,244 --> 00:16:39,964 Speaker 2: fucking goofball at various points of the campaign and retweets 287 00:16:39,964 --> 00:16:42,244 Speaker 2: a lot of unreliable information, but at the same time 288 00:16:42,484 --> 00:16:44,364 Speaker 2: he is a different type of person who can vouch 289 00:16:44,724 --> 00:16:47,844 Speaker 2: for Trump and give him some credibility, as are these 290 00:16:47,884 --> 00:16:53,124 Speaker 2: podcasters and the various like podcasts rows of different kind, 291 00:16:53,364 --> 00:16:55,884 Speaker 2: you know, as as his increasing number of minority supporters 292 00:16:55,964 --> 00:16:58,564 Speaker 2: racial minority or ethnic minority, and so like, there are 293 00:16:58,564 --> 00:17:01,724 Speaker 2: people that can like that can now vouch for Trump 294 00:17:01,764 --> 00:17:04,004 Speaker 2: and kind of like and all the Democrats are kind 295 00:17:04,004 --> 00:17:08,284 Speaker 2: of like uncool dorks pretty much, and like how can 296 00:17:08,284 --> 00:17:11,044 Speaker 2: they they have alebrities? I mean, joy Read the MSNBC 297 00:17:11,124 --> 00:17:14,604 Speaker 2: host was like, you know, Beyonce endorsed and blah blah. 298 00:17:14,604 --> 00:17:16,164 Speaker 2: It's like, come on, like you can't. Like it's not 299 00:17:16,204 --> 00:17:21,364 Speaker 2: like actually how you win elections, you know. But look, 300 00:17:21,404 --> 00:17:25,884 Speaker 2: look Democrats, the sooner Democrats. I think this is controversial. 301 00:17:28,164 --> 00:17:31,684 Speaker 2: Trump is likely to hang himself hang himself to be 302 00:17:31,764 --> 00:17:36,044 Speaker 2: unpopular again in the normal ways that incumbents are unpopular 303 00:17:36,124 --> 00:17:42,364 Speaker 2: in their second term, meaning spending too much money even 304 00:17:42,364 --> 00:17:44,524 Speaker 2: though GUP is supposed for definit production, they're not. They 305 00:17:44,524 --> 00:17:46,764 Speaker 2: probably have another big tax cut that we're not paying for, 306 00:17:46,964 --> 00:17:51,924 Speaker 2: and engaging in unpopular foreign policy conduct and personal scandals 307 00:17:51,924 --> 00:17:54,044 Speaker 2: and just general fatigue and bad decision making that you 308 00:17:54,124 --> 00:17:56,284 Speaker 2: make when when you're seventy eight. I mean, Trump is 309 00:17:56,324 --> 00:17:58,124 Speaker 2: a few months older than Biden was at the start 310 00:17:58,164 --> 00:18:01,644 Speaker 2: of his first term, and so you know, I don't 311 00:18:02,124 --> 00:18:06,444 Speaker 2: I don't know that the rhetoric of like existential crisis, 312 00:18:06,484 --> 00:18:08,724 Speaker 2: like I don't think it was helpful to Harris and 313 00:18:08,764 --> 00:18:12,284 Speaker 2: I don't know that helpful to Democrats now. And it's 314 00:18:12,324 --> 00:18:13,924 Speaker 2: made a little easier when you actually have a clear 315 00:18:14,044 --> 00:18:15,764 Speaker 2: verdict on an election night where Trump will win the 316 00:18:16,244 --> 00:18:19,444 Speaker 2: popular vote. And so you know, looking forward to and 317 00:18:19,484 --> 00:18:22,124 Speaker 2: by the way, I think the Democrats have taken this 318 00:18:22,244 --> 00:18:28,724 Speaker 2: loss about as constructively as you possibly can. I have 319 00:18:28,924 --> 00:18:33,324 Speaker 2: not seen a lot of liberal tiers necessarily right, you know, 320 00:18:33,404 --> 00:18:35,884 Speaker 2: in general, Democrats recognize that we have to move to 321 00:18:36,084 --> 00:18:39,724 Speaker 2: the center, which is hard for parties to recognize. And 322 00:18:39,764 --> 00:18:42,804 Speaker 2: that seems like that seems good. So you know, look 323 00:18:42,844 --> 00:18:47,204 Speaker 2: as far as like having steering the country back toward 324 00:18:47,364 --> 00:18:49,764 Speaker 2: I don't know. Maybe I'm neglecting the damage Trump could 325 00:18:49,844 --> 00:18:51,404 Speaker 2: do in four years. 326 00:18:52,684 --> 00:18:54,884 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think there is a lot of 327 00:18:54,964 --> 00:18:58,084 Speaker 1: damage that people don't really talk about that he that 328 00:18:58,164 --> 00:19:01,524 Speaker 1: he could do in four years. You know, some one 329 00:19:01,524 --> 00:19:05,484 Speaker 1: of the things we haven't talked about is science, and 330 00:19:05,844 --> 00:19:08,084 Speaker 1: we know what happened during Trump one point zero with 331 00:19:08,124 --> 00:19:12,604 Speaker 1: science funding, with age funding, research funding, and the types 332 00:19:12,644 --> 00:19:16,004 Speaker 1: of research that suddenly could not get any funding, you know, 333 00:19:16,284 --> 00:19:19,564 Speaker 1: fetal cells, stem cell research, like a lot of things 334 00:19:19,644 --> 00:19:23,444 Speaker 1: that are crucially important, and people are afraid that that's 335 00:19:23,484 --> 00:19:29,244 Speaker 1: going to happen again. RFK, you know, being potentially very 336 00:19:29,284 --> 00:19:32,524 Speaker 1: influential in the administration. I think that there are some 337 00:19:32,564 --> 00:19:35,364 Speaker 1: effects like that that we're not even thinking about, you know, 338 00:19:35,644 --> 00:19:38,524 Speaker 1: or like religion, you know, bringing religion into classrooms, what 339 00:19:38,684 --> 00:19:41,964 Speaker 1: happens with federal judge appointments. So right now, we just 340 00:19:42,044 --> 00:19:47,244 Speaker 1: had the Louisiana requirement to put ten commandments in every 341 00:19:47,244 --> 00:19:50,004 Speaker 1: classroom that was actually struck down. We're going to see 342 00:19:50,004 --> 00:19:52,444 Speaker 1: an appeals process there, right all of those appointments that 343 00:19:52,484 --> 00:19:56,244 Speaker 1: Trump is going to be making, changing the judicial system. 344 00:19:56,844 --> 00:19:58,644 Speaker 1: We'll see what happens to the Supreme Court. You know, 345 00:19:58,684 --> 00:20:02,084 Speaker 1: what are there retires, who retires or dies? You know, 346 00:20:02,604 --> 00:20:06,084 Speaker 1: I hope no one dies, and how Trumpian the Supreme 347 00:20:06,084 --> 00:20:09,244 Speaker 1: Court becomes. Because there's a difference between conservative and Trumpian, right, 348 00:20:09,404 --> 00:20:12,764 Speaker 1: There's a big difference between you know, your regular conservative 349 00:20:13,084 --> 00:20:16,404 Speaker 1: judge and a Trump judge appointee. So I think that 350 00:20:16,444 --> 00:20:19,004 Speaker 1: there are lots of effects like that that we haven't 351 00:20:19,004 --> 00:20:23,084 Speaker 1: talked about yet that Trump could very much put in place. 352 00:20:23,124 --> 00:20:26,404 Speaker 1: In four years. I think we will potentially see things 353 00:20:26,444 --> 00:20:29,404 Speaker 1: that are going to be incredibly harmful. 354 00:20:30,684 --> 00:20:34,364 Speaker 2: There's some good stuff. No one good thing is I 355 00:20:34,364 --> 00:20:37,644 Speaker 2: think we'll probably end up getting a ban on gain 356 00:20:37,684 --> 00:20:39,884 Speaker 2: a function research which may have been responsible for the 357 00:20:39,924 --> 00:20:43,524 Speaker 2: COVID pandemic and I think is from an expected value standpoint, 358 00:20:43,524 --> 00:20:44,884 Speaker 2: has negative expected values. 359 00:20:44,964 --> 00:20:46,404 Speaker 1: So that's good. 360 00:20:48,564 --> 00:20:51,244 Speaker 2: You know, I could probably point out a few other thing. 361 00:20:51,244 --> 00:20:53,124 Speaker 2: I don't want to necessarily give people a laundry list 362 00:20:53,164 --> 00:20:55,524 Speaker 2: of every single position that that Nates hold, but yeah, 363 00:20:55,644 --> 00:20:58,164 Speaker 2: that Nate holds. But yet, Look, one reason why I 364 00:20:58,164 --> 00:21:03,244 Speaker 2: find myself being a bit less worried about Trump than 365 00:21:03,284 --> 00:21:05,484 Speaker 2: I might have been with that larger victory is that 366 00:21:05,524 --> 00:21:08,004 Speaker 2: it does create more of a mandate for more mainstream 367 00:21:08,684 --> 00:21:12,284 Speaker 2: cabinet members to come in, right, you know, Secretary of 368 00:21:12,284 --> 00:21:15,084 Speaker 2: say it's a good job. But the fact that that 369 00:21:15,204 --> 00:21:18,364 Speaker 2: Marco Ribio one of the more I mean he ran 370 00:21:18,364 --> 00:21:20,084 Speaker 2: a band president campaign Tway sixteen, but one of the 371 00:21:20,084 --> 00:21:25,404 Speaker 2: more normal electable GOP senators and maybe the most important role. 372 00:21:25,524 --> 00:21:28,244 Speaker 2: I mean that that seems valuable. 373 00:21:28,284 --> 00:21:31,524 Speaker 1: Well, right, here's hoping. And you know, and I do 374 00:21:31,604 --> 00:21:35,324 Speaker 1: think that if we see I hope that we see politics. 375 00:21:36,084 --> 00:21:38,564 Speaker 1: You know, I would love to see politics moving more 376 00:21:38,604 --> 00:21:41,244 Speaker 1: to the center. I would love to see, you know, 377 00:21:41,324 --> 00:21:43,684 Speaker 1: third parties become stronger. There are lots of things I 378 00:21:43,684 --> 00:21:46,364 Speaker 1: would love to see. And if any of those end 379 00:21:46,444 --> 00:21:49,484 Speaker 1: up being you know, downstream effects from this, that would 380 00:21:49,484 --> 00:21:50,124 Speaker 1: be wonderful. 381 00:21:52,204 --> 00:21:56,284 Speaker 2: Mariet, we can now guiltlessly talk about poker. So you 382 00:21:56,324 --> 00:22:01,644 Speaker 2: want to do that, Let's do it after this break. 383 00:22:16,084 --> 00:22:21,924 Speaker 1: Okay, let's now guiltlessly talk about poker. NIDE. So we 384 00:22:22,204 --> 00:22:27,204 Speaker 1: are now finished with the North American Poker Tour, the 385 00:22:27,324 --> 00:22:31,924 Speaker 1: NAPT which is the Poker Stars flagship event in North America. 386 00:22:32,404 --> 00:22:35,524 Speaker 1: So there were the main event had almost nine hundred players, 387 00:22:36,444 --> 00:22:40,924 Speaker 1: and I was lucky enough to be four of those players. 388 00:22:42,684 --> 00:22:47,244 Speaker 2: Four of those So despite Norman Chad's scolding, you're still 389 00:22:47,324 --> 00:22:48,284 Speaker 2: rebuying into these things. 390 00:22:48,684 --> 00:22:53,444 Speaker 1: I am still rebuying despite the scolding that I received. Yes, 391 00:22:53,684 --> 00:22:58,644 Speaker 1: so I the first Okay, so I played. So day 392 00:22:58,644 --> 00:23:01,644 Speaker 1: one of the main event was November fifth, so that 393 00:23:01,844 --> 00:23:04,004 Speaker 1: was kind of a big day in the country, and 394 00:23:04,084 --> 00:23:06,364 Speaker 1: I was doing quite well. You know, everything was fine. 395 00:23:06,404 --> 00:23:08,684 Speaker 1: I had plenty of chips. I never had a lot 396 00:23:08,684 --> 00:23:10,924 Speaker 1: of chips, but I was never you know, I was 397 00:23:11,004 --> 00:23:14,164 Speaker 1: kind of hanging in there. And then as the as 398 00:23:14,164 --> 00:23:16,924 Speaker 1: it got late, you know, second to last level of 399 00:23:16,964 --> 00:23:20,844 Speaker 1: the night, when it became quite clear that this was 400 00:23:20,884 --> 00:23:23,964 Speaker 1: not going to end well for Kamala Harris, that Trump 401 00:23:24,004 --> 00:23:26,004 Speaker 1: was probably going to win. I think I texted you 402 00:23:26,084 --> 00:23:29,244 Speaker 1: a few times about my existential dread. You did not 403 00:23:29,364 --> 00:23:34,244 Speaker 1: engage with them with those two Marie texts, and I 404 00:23:34,324 --> 00:23:37,404 Speaker 1: quite frankly punted, you know, I made uh, you know, 405 00:23:37,444 --> 00:23:40,284 Speaker 1: I made a decision that it wasn't a horrible punt. 406 00:23:40,924 --> 00:23:44,244 Speaker 1: What do you think about this name? I had about 407 00:23:44,964 --> 00:23:49,564 Speaker 1: thirty five big blinds. I was in the small blind. 408 00:23:49,604 --> 00:23:52,724 Speaker 1: It had folded to me. I had ace ten offsuit. 409 00:23:53,444 --> 00:23:55,164 Speaker 1: So for people who don't play poker, that's a very 410 00:23:55,164 --> 00:23:56,844 Speaker 1: good hand. And you know in the small blind when 411 00:23:56,884 --> 00:24:01,644 Speaker 1: it's folded to you, I raised, the big blind re raised, 412 00:24:02,644 --> 00:24:04,204 Speaker 1: and I shoved with my. 413 00:24:04,204 --> 00:24:06,324 Speaker 2: Ace ton how many big BLUs you have? 414 00:24:06,644 --> 00:24:07,484 Speaker 1: About thirty five? 415 00:24:08,804 --> 00:24:12,964 Speaker 2: So the small blind, big blind? 416 00:24:13,564 --> 00:24:16,644 Speaker 1: So I raised to like three big blinds. Big blind 417 00:24:16,684 --> 00:24:19,564 Speaker 1: re raises to let's say, you know, nine big blinds, 418 00:24:19,564 --> 00:24:20,084 Speaker 1: and I shove. 419 00:24:20,964 --> 00:24:24,764 Speaker 2: I think it's probably pretty close to gto. Yeah, I 420 00:24:24,804 --> 00:24:26,764 Speaker 2: think that it's I. 421 00:24:26,764 --> 00:24:29,444 Speaker 1: Mean, you're not supposed to fold, right, You're definitely not 422 00:24:29,484 --> 00:24:32,044 Speaker 1: supposed to fold. Because so for people who don't play poker. 423 00:24:32,044 --> 00:24:35,604 Speaker 1: By the way, blind versus blind confrontations are very interesting 424 00:24:35,724 --> 00:24:39,324 Speaker 1: because you know, people think that you're taking advantage, right, 425 00:24:39,364 --> 00:24:42,164 Speaker 1: there's a lot of psychological play there. But but but 426 00:24:42,244 --> 00:24:44,804 Speaker 1: I busted. That was my first bullet, and then my 427 00:24:44,884 --> 00:24:50,164 Speaker 1: second two bullets that was November sixth. Those were not puns, 428 00:24:50,164 --> 00:24:52,324 Speaker 1: but I just you know, sometimes you have those poker 429 00:24:52,404 --> 00:24:54,364 Speaker 1: days when you can't win a hand, right. I never 430 00:24:54,404 --> 00:24:57,164 Speaker 1: got above starting stack, like, I could never get anything going. 431 00:24:57,844 --> 00:25:00,964 Speaker 1: So I ended up not being able to do much 432 00:25:01,044 --> 00:25:04,404 Speaker 1: over there. And so then I bought in for the 433 00:25:04,644 --> 00:25:08,604 Speaker 1: fourth time, my fourth bullet on the start of day two, 434 00:25:08,604 --> 00:25:10,564 Speaker 1: which was the last that you can buy in. So 435 00:25:10,604 --> 00:25:13,164 Speaker 1: I started the day with twenty big blinds for people 436 00:25:13,164 --> 00:25:16,124 Speaker 1: who don't play poker, that's playable, but not you know, 437 00:25:16,124 --> 00:25:18,844 Speaker 1: not a huge stack by any stretch of the imagination, 438 00:25:19,884 --> 00:25:23,204 Speaker 1: and far below average. I think average at that point 439 00:25:23,364 --> 00:25:25,724 Speaker 1: was like over fifty big blinds, close to sixty. Because 440 00:25:25,724 --> 00:25:27,564 Speaker 1: this is a you know, it's a main event. So 441 00:25:28,124 --> 00:25:30,164 Speaker 1: on day two we have ninety minute levels, like this 442 00:25:30,244 --> 00:25:35,284 Speaker 1: is a deep stacked tournament. And yeah, so I ended 443 00:25:35,364 --> 00:25:38,964 Speaker 1: up starting day two with twenty big blinds and had 444 00:25:39,004 --> 00:25:43,524 Speaker 1: a good day too, but didn't bag a lot. Started 445 00:25:43,604 --> 00:25:46,324 Speaker 1: day three, made day three right, made day three with 446 00:25:46,724 --> 00:25:50,724 Speaker 1: thirty big blinds, and ended up making the final two 447 00:25:50,804 --> 00:25:56,924 Speaker 1: tables of the tournament on day four and ended up 448 00:25:57,084 --> 00:26:00,884 Speaker 1: so first place was almost eight hundred thousand dollars. I 449 00:26:01,044 --> 00:26:05,404 Speaker 1: was out in fourteenth, so I got around forty thousand dollars, 450 00:26:05,484 --> 00:26:06,164 Speaker 1: and it was sad. 451 00:26:07,324 --> 00:26:11,284 Speaker 2: It is so perverse that, like you almost went just 452 00:26:11,324 --> 00:26:13,604 Speaker 2: shitloads of money, and then it's kind of crazy. 453 00:26:14,124 --> 00:26:18,644 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it is kind of crazy. And so so 454 00:26:18,764 --> 00:26:21,524 Speaker 1: for day four, you know, I was on the televised 455 00:26:21,524 --> 00:26:24,644 Speaker 1: table the whole time, which is actually quite interesting because 456 00:26:24,884 --> 00:26:30,444 Speaker 1: you know the dynamical No, I don't I don't love 457 00:26:30,524 --> 00:26:33,644 Speaker 1: giving away all of that information. I would prefer people 458 00:26:33,724 --> 00:26:36,684 Speaker 1: not know how I play, to be perfectly honest, But 459 00:26:37,524 --> 00:26:40,524 Speaker 1: I've gotten you know, I understand that as an ambassador 460 00:26:40,604 --> 00:26:44,204 Speaker 1: for poker, it's important to do that, and I tried 461 00:26:44,284 --> 00:26:47,204 Speaker 1: just not to think about it. There was one hand 462 00:26:47,284 --> 00:26:51,004 Speaker 1: where I actually ended up making a correct fold on 463 00:26:51,044 --> 00:26:54,804 Speaker 1: the turn with top pair I had. This was also 464 00:26:54,884 --> 00:26:58,204 Speaker 1: a blind versus blind situation, so I had limped in 465 00:26:58,284 --> 00:27:03,364 Speaker 1: with ACE nine and the big blind checked. The flop 466 00:27:03,644 --> 00:27:08,324 Speaker 1: was ACE five three. I bet one blind, got raised 467 00:27:08,804 --> 00:27:12,284 Speaker 1: called the turn was a five. I checked and ended 468 00:27:12,364 --> 00:27:16,484 Speaker 1: up folding to a big turn bet. And I later 469 00:27:16,564 --> 00:27:19,284 Speaker 1: heard people talking about it, you know, once we were 470 00:27:19,324 --> 00:27:23,884 Speaker 1: on break and the stream had caught up, saying, you know, 471 00:27:23,924 --> 00:27:26,604 Speaker 1: oh my god, like I can't believe she folded, like 472 00:27:26,684 --> 00:27:29,084 Speaker 1: she should have called and paid you off there talking 473 00:27:29,084 --> 00:27:31,484 Speaker 1: to the person I was playing against, brock Wilson, who's 474 00:27:31,484 --> 00:27:33,804 Speaker 1: a great player. He had five three right, so he 475 00:27:33,844 --> 00:27:36,604 Speaker 1: had turned a full house and so I was drawing 476 00:27:36,884 --> 00:27:40,364 Speaker 1: pretty much done and so it was a very good 477 00:27:40,404 --> 00:27:42,484 Speaker 1: fault fold. But one of the reasons they thought I 478 00:27:42,484 --> 00:27:45,324 Speaker 1: would have called was because it was on a TV stream, right, 479 00:27:45,404 --> 00:27:47,804 Speaker 1: and you don't want to look dumb folding top hair 480 00:27:48,324 --> 00:27:51,284 Speaker 1: in a spot like that where you're almost always good. 481 00:27:51,684 --> 00:27:54,244 Speaker 1: And I said, you know, I just don't care, right, 482 00:27:54,324 --> 00:27:56,204 Speaker 1: like I don't actually give a fuck of people. 483 00:27:57,044 --> 00:28:00,084 Speaker 2: Usually when you feel when you feel that past because 484 00:28:00,084 --> 00:28:03,164 Speaker 2: folding was hard, right, when you feel that temptation to 485 00:28:03,284 --> 00:28:05,804 Speaker 2: make a tight fold that I'm trying to train myself 486 00:28:05,844 --> 00:28:08,044 Speaker 2: to like just flick the cards in right, not get 487 00:28:08,084 --> 00:28:08,684 Speaker 2: too attached. 488 00:28:08,924 --> 00:28:14,524 Speaker 1: So let's also talk about let's talk about a hand 489 00:28:14,644 --> 00:28:17,804 Speaker 1: that and we'll stop talking strategy after this, I promise. 490 00:28:18,124 --> 00:28:21,124 Speaker 1: But you know, whenever I review performances like this, right, 491 00:28:21,404 --> 00:28:24,124 Speaker 1: it's such a big it's such a big difference to 492 00:28:24,124 --> 00:28:27,044 Speaker 1: come in fourteenth and first, right, I made forty thousand, 493 00:28:27,324 --> 00:28:30,564 Speaker 1: I could have made eight hundred thousand, right, Like, that's 494 00:28:30,764 --> 00:28:34,244 Speaker 1: that's huge, and every single place at that point is 495 00:28:34,284 --> 00:28:37,484 Speaker 1: worth a lot of money, and so you go through 496 00:28:37,524 --> 00:28:40,324 Speaker 1: all of your decisions. My bust out hand don't regret 497 00:28:40,364 --> 00:28:42,284 Speaker 1: at all. You know, I had nine big blinds under 498 00:28:42,324 --> 00:28:46,684 Speaker 1: the gun and shoved jack, tapsuited right. That was perfectly fine, 499 00:28:47,204 --> 00:28:49,604 Speaker 1: ended up running into queen's and did not suck out 500 00:28:49,764 --> 00:28:52,564 Speaker 1: the poker term for hitting when you should not you 501 00:28:52,564 --> 00:28:55,884 Speaker 1: should not hit. So that was totally fine. But I 502 00:28:55,924 --> 00:28:59,564 Speaker 1: do regret a hand that got me short where I 503 00:28:59,724 --> 00:29:03,524 Speaker 1: raised Ace King, one of the best starting hands from 504 00:29:03,604 --> 00:29:06,964 Speaker 1: under the gun and got called by the big blind 505 00:29:07,564 --> 00:29:11,124 Speaker 1: and the flop I don't actually remember the exact flop, 506 00:29:11,124 --> 00:29:12,884 Speaker 1: but I think it was like something like eight four duce, 507 00:29:14,164 --> 00:29:18,284 Speaker 1: and I ended up checking back as opposed to betting, 508 00:29:18,724 --> 00:29:21,924 Speaker 1: and I think that there's you know, it's Ace King 509 00:29:22,244 --> 00:29:26,524 Speaker 1: off suit. Okay, Yeah, So I checked instead of betting 510 00:29:27,204 --> 00:29:28,644 Speaker 1: when it was checked to me. And then the turn 511 00:29:28,724 --> 00:29:33,004 Speaker 1: was a queen and it's a big blind bet and 512 00:29:33,244 --> 00:29:35,604 Speaker 1: bet bigger than I would have bet the turn. But 513 00:29:35,764 --> 00:29:37,684 Speaker 1: he ended up betting and I called, and then the 514 00:29:37,764 --> 00:29:40,284 Speaker 1: river was a blank and he checked and I checked 515 00:29:40,284 --> 00:29:43,724 Speaker 1: back and he ended up winning with a four. And 516 00:29:43,924 --> 00:29:45,924 Speaker 1: I really regret how I played this hand. I actually 517 00:29:45,924 --> 00:29:48,604 Speaker 1: think I messed it up multiple times. And that's the 518 00:29:48,644 --> 00:29:51,284 Speaker 1: hand that kind of I think that had I played 519 00:29:51,284 --> 00:29:53,404 Speaker 1: it differently, and even if I'd busted, even if he 520 00:29:53,444 --> 00:29:55,764 Speaker 1: had hero called me with his four, I think I 521 00:29:55,764 --> 00:29:57,564 Speaker 1: would have felt much better about it than I did 522 00:29:57,604 --> 00:30:00,924 Speaker 1: in retrospect from having played it more passively. So I 523 00:30:00,964 --> 00:30:04,404 Speaker 1: think that this is the show of the show, right 524 00:30:04,484 --> 00:30:08,404 Speaker 1: Passive passive play is not is not is a decision, 525 00:30:08,644 --> 00:30:10,964 Speaker 1: and it's not alw is the right decision even when 526 00:30:11,004 --> 00:30:15,844 Speaker 1: you're have ic M considerations, which is independent chip model, 527 00:30:16,164 --> 00:30:17,244 Speaker 1: pay jumps, et cetera. 528 00:30:17,684 --> 00:30:19,204 Speaker 2: Yeah, because the reason you're called because you can just 529 00:30:19,204 --> 00:30:23,084 Speaker 2: fold the turn if he's betting into a queen. I mean, 530 00:30:23,124 --> 00:30:25,124 Speaker 2: I can mean different things, but but you don't have 531 00:30:25,164 --> 00:30:26,884 Speaker 2: a pair. It's supposed to be a good card for 532 00:30:26,924 --> 00:30:29,444 Speaker 2: your range, right, So if he's betting, if you are calling, 533 00:30:29,524 --> 00:30:32,524 Speaker 2: then it's because I think you're calling almost your whole range, right, 534 00:30:33,684 --> 00:30:37,124 Speaker 2: And so it's calling with the intent of betting pretty 535 00:30:37,164 --> 00:30:43,284 Speaker 2: big on the river exactly, maybe maybe raising certain rivers 536 00:30:43,404 --> 00:30:47,564 Speaker 2: against a small bet with your representatives queen. And so yeah, 537 00:30:47,604 --> 00:30:50,844 Speaker 2: I look, I think you mentioned earlier how like, oh, 538 00:30:50,884 --> 00:30:53,684 Speaker 2: it doesn't quite seem like a punt, right, And I'm 539 00:30:53,724 --> 00:30:54,924 Speaker 2: not sure if this this is like a hand where 540 00:30:54,924 --> 00:30:58,124 Speaker 2: it's more in the passive category. But like sometimes the 541 00:30:58,124 --> 00:31:02,324 Speaker 2: things that involve like multi street planning are the things 542 00:31:02,324 --> 00:31:05,724 Speaker 2: that tend to go away when when you're tired, when 543 00:31:05,764 --> 00:31:08,284 Speaker 2: you're fatigued, or been playing too much for whatever else. Right, 544 00:31:08,324 --> 00:31:10,804 Speaker 2: And so it's so you know, the twenty percent of 545 00:31:10,804 --> 00:31:13,644 Speaker 2: the time you're supposed to reaschhove Ace ten off student 546 00:31:13,644 --> 00:31:15,484 Speaker 2: at thirty five bigs, maybe you're doing that eight centimes 547 00:31:15,524 --> 00:31:17,524 Speaker 2: because you have to just thinkings out of your hand, then, right, 548 00:31:17,604 --> 00:31:20,364 Speaker 2: you don't have to like have this complex plan and 549 00:31:20,404 --> 00:31:21,764 Speaker 2: so and so that can be a sign of. 550 00:31:21,724 --> 00:31:26,644 Speaker 1: Fatigue, I think, and we'll be back right after this. 551 00:31:43,084 --> 00:31:46,204 Speaker 2: You seem to have had I guess since the World Series, 552 00:31:46,284 --> 00:31:49,004 Speaker 2: like a really good run of yeah poker. What do 553 00:31:49,004 --> 00:31:51,324 Speaker 2: you attribute that to? Just variants? Are you doing things differently? 554 00:31:52,084 --> 00:31:52,284 Speaker 2: You know? 555 00:31:52,364 --> 00:31:54,484 Speaker 1: I think I think a lot of it is variants. 556 00:31:54,964 --> 00:31:58,404 Speaker 2: As always talked about what it's always the boring answers. 557 00:31:58,484 --> 00:32:00,324 Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean I think a lot of it 558 00:32:00,364 --> 00:32:04,364 Speaker 1: is variants in the sense that you know, I, I've 559 00:32:04,764 --> 00:32:07,524 Speaker 1: you know, been studying and trying to play well the 560 00:32:07,564 --> 00:32:10,604 Speaker 1: whole year unfortunately, you know, the World Series. I just 561 00:32:11,044 --> 00:32:15,564 Speaker 1: as we know, around like absolute shit and really below expectation. 562 00:32:16,804 --> 00:32:20,884 Speaker 1: Some of it is probably just more intensive study because 563 00:32:20,924 --> 00:32:23,724 Speaker 1: I was really upset after the World Series, and that's 564 00:32:23,764 --> 00:32:28,124 Speaker 1: a good motivation. Upset not because like oh I'm so sad, 565 00:32:28,204 --> 00:32:30,204 Speaker 1: you know, poor me, but upset because I was like, 566 00:32:30,244 --> 00:32:32,924 Speaker 1: you know, am I I realize I'm not running well, 567 00:32:32,924 --> 00:32:35,564 Speaker 1: but I really want to up my game, like I 568 00:32:35,644 --> 00:32:38,044 Speaker 1: need to be competitive. Otherwise, what am I even doing 569 00:32:38,124 --> 00:32:41,604 Speaker 1: spending my time playing poker? Right? What am I doing 570 00:32:41,684 --> 00:32:44,244 Speaker 1: just spending money on this? I don't I don't like 571 00:32:44,324 --> 00:32:48,284 Speaker 1: that feeling, And so that's I think do never underestimate 572 00:32:48,364 --> 00:32:51,404 Speaker 1: that as a motivation when you're trying to do better. 573 00:32:51,484 --> 00:32:53,004 Speaker 2: What kind of things have you been studying? 574 00:32:54,604 --> 00:32:58,604 Speaker 1: I have just tried to So Number one, I've really 575 00:32:58,644 --> 00:33:01,684 Speaker 1: really tried to study this seems very boring, my preflop 576 00:33:01,724 --> 00:33:03,804 Speaker 1: game to make sure that I really did not have 577 00:33:03,884 --> 00:33:07,044 Speaker 1: many preflop leaks, because that's just so basic. But that's 578 00:33:07,044 --> 00:33:10,204 Speaker 1: something that I think is often understand studied because it's 579 00:33:10,284 --> 00:33:14,724 Speaker 1: not just it's not just kind of opening ranges from 580 00:33:14,724 --> 00:33:17,164 Speaker 1: all positions, but it's you know, how do you respond 581 00:33:17,244 --> 00:33:19,284 Speaker 1: to three bets, how do you respond to four bets? 582 00:33:19,444 --> 00:33:21,084 Speaker 1: How do you play different parts of your range in 583 00:33:21,084 --> 00:33:23,044 Speaker 1: all of these situations? And so I've tried to go 584 00:33:23,124 --> 00:33:26,244 Speaker 1: deeper on that to make sure that I'm plugging as 585 00:33:26,284 --> 00:33:29,564 Speaker 1: many leaks as I can kind of at the beginning 586 00:33:29,604 --> 00:33:31,364 Speaker 1: of my game, because that sets you up to play 587 00:33:31,364 --> 00:33:33,884 Speaker 1: well afterwards, right Like, if you have a major leak 588 00:33:34,004 --> 00:33:37,804 Speaker 1: or even a small leak at the beginning, then the 589 00:33:37,964 --> 00:33:41,924 Speaker 1: entire game tree changes if you're making those early mistakes. 590 00:33:42,124 --> 00:33:44,364 Speaker 1: So that's something that I've really worked on. 591 00:33:44,724 --> 00:33:48,444 Speaker 2: Yeah, if you really want to see the importance of 592 00:33:48,524 --> 00:33:54,804 Speaker 2: pre flop play some deep staked cash for limits that 593 00:33:54,844 --> 00:33:58,564 Speaker 2: you care about enough to get some actual feedback, right, Yeah, 594 00:33:58,604 --> 00:34:00,004 Speaker 2: you know, because I think a lot of cash game 595 00:34:00,004 --> 00:34:01,804 Speaker 2: players are like I've been playing more cash lately, like 596 00:34:02,084 --> 00:34:05,204 Speaker 2: or of the mindset that like, oh, I can make 597 00:34:05,244 --> 00:34:08,244 Speaker 2: it up with my superior post flop play and the 598 00:34:08,284 --> 00:34:09,884 Speaker 2: fact it said if your range is just two weak, 599 00:34:09,964 --> 00:34:12,644 Speaker 2: then you just can't. You have too many bluffs and 600 00:34:12,684 --> 00:34:15,844 Speaker 2: not the right bluffs. Right. You are constantly on the 601 00:34:15,844 --> 00:34:20,124 Speaker 2: defensive about not wanting to bloat pots, right, So we're 602 00:34:20,164 --> 00:34:22,204 Speaker 2: trying to get that more correct. And obviously in some 603 00:34:22,244 --> 00:34:25,804 Speaker 2: cash game settings you're kind of node locking to not 604 00:34:25,884 --> 00:34:30,884 Speaker 2: people people not playing optimally, right, and you're trying to 605 00:34:30,884 --> 00:34:32,604 Speaker 2: be conscious of your image and not being too much 606 00:34:32,604 --> 00:34:35,964 Speaker 2: of a knit. But like, yeah, you were really drill 607 00:34:36,164 --> 00:34:38,684 Speaker 2: pre flop supportance into your head if you if you're 608 00:34:38,684 --> 00:34:41,204 Speaker 2: playing huge four or five figure. 609 00:34:40,924 --> 00:34:45,444 Speaker 1: Pots, absolutely, absolutely, And early stage tournaments for people who 610 00:34:45,444 --> 00:34:48,124 Speaker 1: don't play poker or who want to learn are very 611 00:34:48,164 --> 00:34:51,124 Speaker 1: similar to cash games because you do start out quite 612 00:34:51,124 --> 00:34:53,204 Speaker 1: deep stacked, right, Sometimes you have two hundred big lines, 613 00:34:53,204 --> 00:34:56,684 Speaker 1: three hundred big lines, and so that's when your mistakes 614 00:34:56,724 --> 00:35:00,324 Speaker 1: are very costly, especially pre flop mistakes, and so many 615 00:35:00,324 --> 00:35:03,044 Speaker 1: people just you know, want to see a flop, right, 616 00:35:03,484 --> 00:35:06,644 Speaker 1: and so they'll they'll put themselves in situations where they're 617 00:35:06,684 --> 00:35:09,884 Speaker 1: not they're not calling correctly, they're not raising correc they're 618 00:35:10,204 --> 00:35:12,964 Speaker 1: just not playing correctly. And even though this is something 619 00:35:13,004 --> 00:35:16,684 Speaker 1: that I know, you can always refine your pre flop play, 620 00:35:17,404 --> 00:35:19,884 Speaker 1: and this is just something that I decided that I 621 00:35:19,924 --> 00:35:23,044 Speaker 1: was going to focus on more because there was a 622 00:35:23,044 --> 00:35:24,644 Speaker 1: time when I was like, Okay, like I got pre 623 00:35:24,724 --> 00:35:26,964 Speaker 1: flopped down. Now I'm going to like work on three 624 00:35:27,004 --> 00:35:29,124 Speaker 1: bet pods and I'm going to work on you know, 625 00:35:29,204 --> 00:35:31,204 Speaker 1: for I'm going to work on like blind versus blind 626 00:35:31,244 --> 00:35:34,404 Speaker 1: in the specific situation. And at some point I realized, 627 00:35:34,404 --> 00:35:36,804 Speaker 1: you know what, now it's time for me to go 628 00:35:36,924 --> 00:35:39,924 Speaker 1: back to the basics but in a more advanced way 629 00:35:40,244 --> 00:35:42,244 Speaker 1: and to really make sure that I have that solid 630 00:35:42,404 --> 00:35:44,524 Speaker 1: And I think that that's just good advice in general 631 00:35:44,924 --> 00:35:47,804 Speaker 1: for life. Right, even if you have a strategy for something, 632 00:35:47,844 --> 00:35:52,524 Speaker 1: as you as you get more advanced, as you start 633 00:35:52,884 --> 00:35:56,164 Speaker 1: kind of being more sophisticated, you might want to revisit 634 00:35:56,204 --> 00:35:58,204 Speaker 1: some of the fundamentals and basics to see if you 635 00:35:58,204 --> 00:36:01,164 Speaker 1: need to update right toe to see what's happening. Because 636 00:36:01,204 --> 00:36:05,484 Speaker 1: the world also changes. Poker changes, poker strategy changes, people's 637 00:36:05,524 --> 00:36:08,884 Speaker 1: game evolves, and so you do constantly have to update things, 638 00:36:08,924 --> 00:36:10,884 Speaker 1: even when you don't think you need to update them, 639 00:36:11,124 --> 00:36:13,364 Speaker 1: Even if you think, oh, like my you know, preflop, 640 00:36:13,404 --> 00:36:15,124 Speaker 1: what else is there to learn? Right? I know what 641 00:36:15,204 --> 00:36:18,764 Speaker 1: my ranges are. No ranges change, right, And styles change 642 00:36:18,764 --> 00:36:21,124 Speaker 1: and things change. And I think that just with everything, 643 00:36:21,164 --> 00:36:23,884 Speaker 1: it's really important to keep revisiting to make sure that 644 00:36:23,924 --> 00:36:27,324 Speaker 1: your process stays optimal, because if you don't update your process, 645 00:36:27,324 --> 00:36:30,164 Speaker 1: it's going to grow stale as everything else changes around you. 646 00:36:31,004 --> 00:36:36,404 Speaker 1: But you know, let's end on a positive poker note, 647 00:36:36,604 --> 00:36:38,844 Speaker 1: and I'm going to choose to take my fourteenth place 648 00:36:38,884 --> 00:36:41,964 Speaker 1: finish as a positive focus on the good. You know, 649 00:36:42,044 --> 00:36:46,044 Speaker 1: I outlasted almost nine hundred players and I almost made it. 650 00:36:46,404 --> 00:36:49,564 Speaker 1: Next time, Nate, I'm going to make it to that 651 00:36:49,684 --> 00:36:51,604 Speaker 1: eight hundred thousand dollars score. 652 00:36:53,404 --> 00:36:56,604 Speaker 2: Uh next time, Maria, if I know it, because next 653 00:36:56,604 --> 00:36:58,644 Speaker 2: time we'll be playing together, hopefully, But all right. 654 00:36:58,524 --> 00:37:10,564 Speaker 1: We can shop, we can chop. Let's do it. Let 655 00:37:10,644 --> 00:37:12,884 Speaker 1: us know what you think of the show. Reach out 656 00:37:12,884 --> 00:37:18,524 Speaker 1: to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot FM. Risky 657 00:37:18,524 --> 00:37:21,244 Speaker 1: Business is hosted by me Maria Kondikova. 658 00:37:20,804 --> 00:37:22,124 Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. 659 00:37:22,484 --> 00:37:25,964 Speaker 1: The show is a co production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. 660 00:37:26,484 --> 00:37:30,044 Speaker 1: This episode was produced by Isabelle Carter. Our associate producer 661 00:37:30,124 --> 00:37:33,684 Speaker 1: is Gabriel Hunter Chang. Our executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. 662 00:37:34,204 --> 00:37:36,324 Speaker 2: If you like the show, please rate and review us 663 00:37:36,364 --> 00:37:38,444 Speaker 2: so other people can find us too. And if you 664 00:37:38,484 --> 00:37:40,844 Speaker 2: want to listen to an ad free version, sign up 665 00:37:40,844 --> 00:37:43,444 Speaker 2: for Pushkin Plus. For six, ten and nine a month, 666 00:37:43,484 --> 00:37:46,324 Speaker 2: you get access to ad free listening. Thanks for tuning in.