WEBVTT - BI Weekend: OpenAI, AMD Deal, New Verizon CEO 

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio, Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg Intelligence

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<v Speaker 1>with Scarletfoo and Paul Sweeney.

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<v Speaker 2>How do you think the FED is looking at tariffs?

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<v Speaker 2>The uncertainty of terriffs.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's take a look at the sectors and how.

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<v Speaker 2>They performed a lot of investors getting whip saled every

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<v Speaker 2>day by news.

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<v Speaker 1>Events, breaking market headlines, and corporate news from across the globe.

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<v Speaker 3>Could we see a market disruption of market event?

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<v Speaker 2>So people just too exuberant out there?

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<v Speaker 3>You see some so called low quality stocks driving this

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<v Speaker 3>short term rally.

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarletfoo and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio,

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube and Bloomberg Originals.

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<v Speaker 2>On today's Bloomberg Intelligence Show, we dig inside the big

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<v Speaker 2>business stories impacting Wall Street and global markets.

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<v Speaker 3>Each and every week, we provide in depth research and

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<v Speaker 3>data on some of the two thousand companies and one

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<v Speaker 3>hundred and thirty industries are analysts cover worldwide.

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<v Speaker 2>Today, we'll look at how AMD landed a deal with

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<v Speaker 2>open Ai to build AI infrastructure.

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<v Speaker 3>Plus why Dell Technologies is roughly doubling its growth estimates

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<v Speaker 3>for sales and profit for the next two years.

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<v Speaker 2>First, we begin with a big deal in the banking sector.

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<v Speaker 3>This week, Fifth Third agreed to buy Coo America for

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<v Speaker 3>about ten point nine billion dollars in stock. It is

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<v Speaker 3>the largest US bank deal this year.

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<v Speaker 2>The deal will create the ninth largest bank in the

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<v Speaker 2>country with about two hundred and eighty eight billion dollars

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<v Speaker 2>in assets, according to the two companies.

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<v Speaker 3>So we called in Herman Chan Bloomberg Intelligence, senior analysts

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<v Speaker 3>for US regional banks, and we began by asking Herman

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<v Speaker 3>for his take on the deal.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think it's a win win for both. Comerica

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<v Speaker 4>has been sort of in the doldrums over the past

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<v Speaker 4>couple of years after the SBB debacle. It's taken some

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<v Speaker 4>long time to get it under its own footing, and

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<v Speaker 4>they've gotten a lot of agitated investors and activists pushing

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<v Speaker 4>for a sale, and this was a great outcome. On

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<v Speaker 4>the other hand, for Fifth Third, it's a great deal.

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<v Speaker 4>It moves them into growth growth yer markets in Texas

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<v Speaker 4>and California, supplements their Michigan presence and really build out

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<v Speaker 4>there their branching presence across the southeast and southwest.

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<v Speaker 3>So within the regional banking space, what does this deal

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<v Speaker 3>put pressure on? Who does this deal put pressure on

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<v Speaker 3>to make a move of their own.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, so that's a question. The follow on question like

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<v Speaker 4>who's next. So there are other banks that are operating

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<v Speaker 4>within the size of a fifth third that have also

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<v Speaker 4>done deals like a PNC and Huntington, and the others

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<v Speaker 4>that are still on the sidelines are banks like Regions

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<v Speaker 4>in the southeast, Key Corp in Ohio as well, and

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<v Speaker 4>M and T and Citizens in the northeast. So those

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<v Speaker 4>are the ones that probably are going to get asked.

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<v Speaker 4>A lot of questions on the three two earnings go

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<v Speaker 4>about M and A.

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<v Speaker 2>So what do we know about the Trumpet administration and

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<v Speaker 2>its view towards bank consolidation. Are they a pined on

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<v Speaker 2>this at all?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 4>So we can see that these bank deals are getting

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<v Speaker 4>approved at much faster clips. So I mentioned Huntington earlier.

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<v Speaker 4>They're buying a bank in Texas named Vera tex and

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<v Speaker 4>it's going to take them about ninety eight days from

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<v Speaker 4>deal closed for merger announcements. And that contrasts with under

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<v Speaker 4>Biden administration, it's taken four hundred to six hundred days

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<v Speaker 4>for a large bank made deals. So these deals under

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<v Speaker 4>Trump are being fast tracked and it's really encouraging the

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<v Speaker 4>management teams to really go out there and search for deals.

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<v Speaker 3>So for so long, a lot of people had commented

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<v Speaker 3>that the US is overbanked. By one count there's almost

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<v Speaker 3>forty five hundred FDI and C insured banking institutions here.

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<v Speaker 3>Are we still overbanked?

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<v Speaker 2>Herman I would.

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<v Speaker 4>Say, so, there's a lot of competition these and that's

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<v Speaker 4>the reason why COO America is looking to sell because

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<v Speaker 4>they were lacking in the retail branch presence. They mostly

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<v Speaker 4>bank middle market commercial customers that are grades, but it

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<v Speaker 4>doesn't create the diversity that they needed during times of

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<v Speaker 4>stress like the SVB environments. And so that was a

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<v Speaker 4>lesson learned for a lot of the banking industry that

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<v Speaker 4>you need to diversify your deposit base. And one way

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<v Speaker 4>to diversify the cell to a larger organization.

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<v Speaker 3>Which segment of the banking industry is bloated, needs to

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<v Speaker 3>streamline the most.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, so there you mentioned forty five hundred banks, Like

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<v Speaker 4>does there need to be that many banks within the

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<v Speaker 4>United States? Probably not. They don't have the scale to

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<v Speaker 4>operate a retail branch presidence. They don't have the capabilities

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<v Speaker 4>on the fee side and the advisory side to really

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<v Speaker 4>help their customers on the commercial side. And you see

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<v Speaker 4>so much competition from not only larger banks, but also

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<v Speaker 4>the FinTechs that are just you know, biding at the

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<v Speaker 4>heels on the consumer side. So it's a really tough

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<v Speaker 4>operating environment and we expect more consolidation over the next

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<v Speaker 4>several years.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, riod of me this year. Why do banks

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<v Speaker 2>even have branches? I hep adding branches. I've been into

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<v Speaker 2>a branch.

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<v Speaker 3>In years across the street from Bloomberg headquarters.

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<v Speaker 5>City Groups City branch right across.

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<v Speaker 4>A lot of it marketing because and a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>it is scale. So for a bank like Fifth Third,

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<v Speaker 4>they're growing organically in the Southeast and that's been a

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<v Speaker 4>major growth driver for them. If you need a branch,

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<v Speaker 4>you don't need a branch, but you need the branch

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<v Speaker 4>for a marketing aspect, so you need.

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<v Speaker 2>To do big ability, right.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a big billboard, expensive billboard in markets.

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<v Speaker 4>Where you have a lot of foot traffic and higher

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<v Speaker 4>growth markets. So it's a big billboard and it's been

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<v Speaker 4>a proven growth driver for banks. But on the other hand,

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<v Speaker 4>branches are declining. So if you have critical mass and

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<v Speaker 4>scale in your existing markets, you can trim your branch

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<v Speaker 4>presence and not affect your depositors. But if you're entering

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<v Speaker 4>new markets, then opening new branches.

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<v Speaker 1>Is the way.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you think I could find my checkbook?

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<v Speaker 3>That raises a question, does a fintech that wants to

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<v Speaker 3>be a bank need to therefore have a retail presence?

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<v Speaker 3>Do they need to open up a branch also across

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<v Speaker 3>the street from our office?

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<v Speaker 4>So that's that's the beauty of the fintech models that

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<v Speaker 4>they're issueing the branches. It's not a requirement. It's a

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<v Speaker 4>lower cost to serve because you don't have the physical

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<v Speaker 4>retail presence, and it's one way to really compete effectively

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<v Speaker 4>with these with these legacy banks where you have a

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<v Speaker 4>really easy to use app and you you aren't burden

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<v Speaker 4>by this cost basis of owning the physical presence.

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<v Speaker 2>All right, So when we had a couple of little

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<v Speaker 2>blow ups in your world a couple of years ago,

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<v Speaker 2>I did I found this k r E the spider

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<v Speaker 2>S and P Regional banking ETF.

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<v Speaker 6>That's right.

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<v Speaker 2>How are you? How are the regional banks trading these days? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 4>So they're really doing all right. We're talking about price

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<v Speaker 4>the tangibles around one point five to one points times.

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<v Speaker 4>Is during the height of the weakest point during the

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<v Speaker 4>SBB debacle, it was less than one time. So they've

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<v Speaker 4>rebounded really nicely despite some of the uncertainty on the

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<v Speaker 4>economy and with tariffs and and so we've seen some

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<v Speaker 4>growth from them, especially on the commercial lending side that's

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<v Speaker 4>really helped grow their top line.

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<v Speaker 2>Our thanks to Hermit Chan Bloomberg Intelligence senior analysts for

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<v Speaker 2>US regional banks.

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<v Speaker 3>We move next to some news in the telecom space.

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<v Speaker 2>This week, for Rizon Communications named Dan Schulman as chief

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<v Speaker 2>executive officer, replacing Hans Vesperg. The goal was to boost

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<v Speaker 2>mobile subscriber growth and shares.

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<v Speaker 3>Schulman is the previous CEO of PayPal and brings financial

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<v Speaker 3>and operational leadership experience, as well as expertise in telecoms,

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<v Speaker 3>technology and finance. Vessberg will stay on for a year

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<v Speaker 3>to help insure a smooth transition for more.

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<v Speaker 2>I was joined by John Butler, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior telecom analysts.

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<v Speaker 2>First asked John if this change was expected at Verizon.

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<v Speaker 7>Not at all, Paul, I mean, you know, when you

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<v Speaker 7>think merger Monday. I've had a lot of busy Mondays lately.

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<v Speaker 7>But the last piece of news I expected was this

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<v Speaker 7>change in leadership at Verizon. The company had really been

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<v Speaker 7>sort of I guess prepping the head of the consumer business,

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<v Speaker 7>or grooming is a better word, Orian Sampath, who is

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<v Speaker 7>just a phenomenal talent in my opinion, and he's been

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<v Speaker 7>sort of pushed out there doing a lot of investor

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<v Speaker 7>conferences and giving the investment community the impression that he

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<v Speaker 7>was the next in line. So when the news broke

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<v Speaker 7>that Dan is taking over as CEO, it really surprised

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<v Speaker 7>a lot of people, including me.

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<v Speaker 2>So what's the company saying here? Why do you think

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<v Speaker 2>they chose this outsider versus somebody that, again an insider

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<v Speaker 2>that maybe the street thought was going to be the

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<v Speaker 2>next in line?

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<v Speaker 7>You know, I think for telecoms, all three of the majors,

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<v Speaker 7>the wireless business is slowing very rapidly on them. We're

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<v Speaker 7>seeing subscriber growth down a lot this year. There's a

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<v Speaker 7>lot of pressure on pricing, and I think the thought

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<v Speaker 7>is Dan Shulman used to be CEO of PayPal. He's

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<v Speaker 7>got experience at Amex in the consumer finance business, so

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<v Speaker 7>they're thinking in terms of how to monetize the hundred

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<v Speaker 7>and fifty million consumer relationships they have to move into adjacencies.

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<v Speaker 7>The naming of Shulman in my mind tells me they're

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<v Speaker 7>looking to tap the consumer finance market. You know, they've

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<v Speaker 7>already got a credit card business. I think it's probably

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<v Speaker 7>doing pretty well, but they're not actually in the loan

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<v Speaker 7>business there, but they're doing a lot of device financing,

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<v Speaker 7>and so I think the hope, maybe this is my speculation,

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<v Speaker 7>maybe that they can take that perhaps a step deeper

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<v Speaker 7>into the consumer finance market and maybe other adjacencies to

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<v Speaker 7>be able to monetize that base a little bit more

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<v Speaker 7>and diversify away from the slowdown and wireless.

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<v Speaker 2>I know Verizon they've kind of dabbled over the years,

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<v Speaker 2>and other businesses, purchasing AOL and Yahoo. So what's the

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<v Speaker 2>focus going forward here? Is it to try to just

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<v Speaker 2>manage the wireless business as you know, the decline in

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<v Speaker 2>the wireless business as best they can.

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<v Speaker 7>So again it's the strategy here, Paul, I think, is

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<v Speaker 7>to sort of build off that base that they have.

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<v Speaker 7>The wireless business is stable, it's not going anywhere. It's

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<v Speaker 7>typically a GDP plus business. Again, we're seeing a slowdown now,

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<v Speaker 7>so it could move down to a GDP like growth rate.

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<v Speaker 7>But again it's all about extensions. So all three of

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<v Speaker 7>the majors here are pushing hard into consumer broadband. They're

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<v Speaker 7>doing very well there, both in the fiber and the

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<v Speaker 7>fixed wireless access business, but even that business is starting

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<v Speaker 7>to mature a bit as it saturates here in the US.

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<v Speaker 7>So the question becomes what's next, And maybe the what's

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<v Speaker 7>next could be consumer finance. If you look at T Mobile,

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<v Speaker 7>they've tapped the outdoor advertising market, which actually is growing

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<v Speaker 7>double digit. I never would have guessed, but the thought is, hey,

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<v Speaker 7>is people carry around these phones, we know where they are.

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<v Speaker 7>Perhaps we can leverage that and come up with very

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<v Speaker 7>innovative ways of increasing eyeballs on our outdoor advertising. So

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<v Speaker 7>I think they're looking for that type of creative thinking

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<v Speaker 7>to come up with new ways of generating growth. And

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<v Speaker 7>again you're trying to leverage that huge core base of

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<v Speaker 7>wireless subs that you have just.

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<v Speaker 2>Been at their balance sheet, John, this is a this

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<v Speaker 2>is company. Verizon's got one hundred and seventy billion dollars

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<v Speaker 2>of total debt there, how's the How does the market

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<v Speaker 2>feel about their balance sheet.

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<v Speaker 7>So I think of the Big three, Verizon is probably

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<v Speaker 7>at a point where they want to be in terms

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<v Speaker 7>of financing the business. Can they load on a bunch

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<v Speaker 7>more debt? It's it's hard to say. I'm going to

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<v Speaker 7>defer to our credit at les for that, Steve Flynn,

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<v Speaker 7>But I don't view their ability to finance new ventures

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<v Speaker 7>as an issue here at all. It's a very cash

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<v Speaker 7>rich business wireless that is, and you know, I think

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<v Speaker 7>that will allow Verizon to bankroll any of the new

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<v Speaker 7>ventures they plan to push into from here.

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<v Speaker 2>Certainly pro shareholders. Is six point six percent dividend yield?

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<v Speaker 2>Is that safe?

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<v Speaker 7>I think it is safe. That's a good question. I

0:12:22.559 --> 0:12:26.840
<v Speaker 7>think Verizon, of the Big three, really sort of gets

0:12:26.880 --> 0:12:29.680
<v Speaker 7>it when it comes to the importance of the dividend

0:12:29.760 --> 0:12:33.680
<v Speaker 7>to the investment community. There's a lot of telecoms out

0:12:33.679 --> 0:12:36.640
<v Speaker 7>there at and T included that have cut the dividend

0:12:36.679 --> 0:12:39.679
<v Speaker 7>in the past and learned the hard way that that

0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:42.719
<v Speaker 7>really I call it the third rail of telecom. I mean,

0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:45.840
<v Speaker 7>you do not want to cut the dividend yep. So

0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:49.120
<v Speaker 7>my call here is that I think the dividend is safe.

0:12:49.200 --> 0:12:52.840
<v Speaker 3>Yes, are Thanks to John Butler, Bloomberg Intelligence senior telecom

0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:55.680
<v Speaker 3>analyst coming up a look at how IBM is planning

0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:56.920
<v Speaker 3>to integrate AI tech.

0:12:57.440 --> 0:13:00.320
<v Speaker 2>Listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, providing in depth

0:13:00.320 --> 0:13:02.679
<v Speaker 2>research and data on two thousand companies and one hundred

0:13:02.679 --> 0:13:03.400
<v Speaker 2>and thirty industries.

0:13:03.480 --> 0:13:06.559
<v Speaker 3>You can access Bloomberg Intelligence via big on the terminal.

0:13:06.640 --> 0:13:07.640
<v Speaker 3>I'm Scarlet Foo.

0:13:07.640 --> 0:13:09.880
<v Speaker 2>And I'm Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg.

0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:18.480
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlet Foo and Paul Sweeney

0:13:18.800 --> 0:13:20.120
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio.

0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:22.680
<v Speaker 2>We moved to some news in the tech space.

0:13:22.840 --> 0:13:25.400
<v Speaker 3>This week. Advanced micro Devices landed a deal with open

0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:28.360
<v Speaker 3>Ai to build AI infrastructure, and this gives the chip

0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:31.000
<v Speaker 3>maker AMD a chance to challenge in VideA in the

0:13:31.040 --> 0:13:32.240
<v Speaker 3>AI computing industry.

0:13:32.440 --> 0:13:36.120
<v Speaker 2>Open Ai will deploy AMD graphics processing units over multiple years.

0:13:36.360 --> 0:13:38.440
<v Speaker 2>The deal also sets the stage for open ai to

0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:40.480
<v Speaker 2>acquire a large steak in the chip maker, with the

0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:42.640
<v Speaker 2>ability to buy as many as one hundred and sixty

0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:43.840
<v Speaker 2>million shares of AMD.

0:13:44.240 --> 0:13:46.440
<v Speaker 3>So we asked for contacts from Ed Ludlow, b Tech

0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:48.760
<v Speaker 3>co anchor. We first asked ed what he makes of

0:13:48.800 --> 0:13:49.440
<v Speaker 3>this week's deal.

0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:52.800
<v Speaker 8>The specifics of the deal a really important. What is

0:13:53.280 --> 0:13:56.160
<v Speaker 8>open ai going to use AMD's technology for it's going

0:13:56.200 --> 0:13:58.720
<v Speaker 8>to use it for inference, in other words, running the

0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:02.600
<v Speaker 8>models that already exist, not training them. It is six

0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:07.440
<v Speaker 8>gigawatts of capacity. The reason that that figure is critical

0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:10.360
<v Speaker 8>is that it equates to the peak electricity demand of

0:14:10.640 --> 0:14:13.920
<v Speaker 8>most major US cities. Like these are huge numbers, as

0:14:13.920 --> 0:14:17.960
<v Speaker 8>you say, but it just speaks to what's happening to

0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:20.760
<v Speaker 8>the mind of the participants in the industry, which is

0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:26.000
<v Speaker 8>they will need this capacity. You guys are using words

0:14:26.040 --> 0:14:29.320
<v Speaker 8>like top and bubble, and I think that's completely fair.

0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:31.800
<v Speaker 8>Maybe you saw my column on the debt role that

0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:36.720
<v Speaker 8>in what's happening. But I would say that AMD has

0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:40.600
<v Speaker 8>done something interesting here which is different to what Nvidia did,

0:14:40.960 --> 0:14:45.800
<v Speaker 8>which is they will issue stock two open Ai AMD

0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:50.240
<v Speaker 8>shares going to open Ai, but only once open Ai

0:14:50.360 --> 0:14:53.720
<v Speaker 8>is spent some money and actually built some stuff. So

0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:55.280
<v Speaker 8>where's open Ai going to get the money?

0:14:56.440 --> 0:14:58.960
<v Speaker 3>Well, that's why Sam Allman has been traveling the world

0:14:59.080 --> 0:15:02.640
<v Speaker 3>meeting with all kinds of investors trying to get some funding.

0:15:02.960 --> 0:15:05.720
<v Speaker 3>You said the specifics matter, ed, but we don't know

0:15:06.280 --> 0:15:10.040
<v Speaker 3>how much this partnership, this deal is worth beyond the

0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:12.600
<v Speaker 3>very generic tens of billions of dollars, right, that could

0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:15.000
<v Speaker 3>be ten billion dollars, that could be ninety nine billion dollars.

0:15:15.200 --> 0:15:18.600
<v Speaker 8>Yes, that's correct. I mean AMDCFO framed it as being

0:15:18.720 --> 0:15:22.240
<v Speaker 8>tens of billion dollars of revenue opportunity. But that's why

0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:24.760
<v Speaker 8>I think the specifics of the terms I've made a

0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:29.520
<v Speaker 8>careful examination of them are really important understand versus what

0:15:29.640 --> 0:15:32.800
<v Speaker 8>Nvidia did with open Ai. So Nvidia said it was

0:15:32.840 --> 0:15:36.200
<v Speaker 8>going to invest one hundred billion dollars into open Ai.

0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:39.160
<v Speaker 8>We don't even know if that was cash or chips

0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:43.120
<v Speaker 8>in lieu of cash, but basically in Nvidia would get

0:15:43.120 --> 0:15:46.160
<v Speaker 8>some equity in open Ai in return. In this instance

0:15:46.240 --> 0:15:50.200
<v Speaker 8>AMD and open Ai. Open ai is getting AMD shares,

0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:54.520
<v Speaker 8>but they are deliverable in tranches against s milestones, which

0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:57.480
<v Speaker 8>relate to literally building the data centers. So for each

0:15:57.520 --> 0:16:00.080
<v Speaker 8>gig of wat of capacity that comes online, am you

0:16:00.080 --> 0:16:02.520
<v Speaker 8>would then say, here is this tranch of stock. And

0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:06.200
<v Speaker 8>that's why I'm saying focus on the open ai obligation here.

0:16:06.680 --> 0:16:09.800
<v Speaker 8>They need actual money to dig up the dirt, to

0:16:09.840 --> 0:16:12.120
<v Speaker 8>put the foundations in, get the data center up, and

0:16:12.120 --> 0:16:15.440
<v Speaker 8>put the servers in before any of this stock comes

0:16:15.440 --> 0:16:15.960
<v Speaker 8>into play.

0:16:16.320 --> 0:16:19.000
<v Speaker 2>Our thanks to ed Lovelow be Tech co anchor Staying

0:16:19.040 --> 0:16:19.440
<v Speaker 2>with tech.

0:16:19.560 --> 0:16:22.080
<v Speaker 3>This week, the tech company IBM announced a plan to

0:16:22.080 --> 0:16:25.800
<v Speaker 3>integrate anthropics AI technologies into its software solutions.

0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:28.080
<v Speaker 2>IBM said it will make the startups claud family of

0:16:28.160 --> 0:16:31.320
<v Speaker 2>large language models accessible for its clients. Shares the IBM

0:16:31.520 --> 0:16:32.800
<v Speaker 2>jump after the news.

0:16:32.560 --> 0:16:34.360
<v Speaker 3>So for more, we were joined by Ana ag Rana,

0:16:34.400 --> 0:16:38.120
<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Intelligence technology analyst. We began by asking anag how

0:16:38.160 --> 0:16:40.160
<v Speaker 3>he evaluates this latest partnership.

0:16:40.480 --> 0:16:42.520
<v Speaker 9>See, when you come to a company like IBM, I

0:16:42.520 --> 0:16:44.520
<v Speaker 9>think they have done a very good job of being

0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:48.120
<v Speaker 9>open and partnering with other vendors. I think the acquisition

0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:50.240
<v Speaker 9>of red Hat was the first such example a few

0:16:50.320 --> 0:16:52.840
<v Speaker 9>years ago, and frankly speaking, the company has turned around

0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:55.120
<v Speaker 9>quite a bit. Now it's more of a software company

0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:58.280
<v Speaker 9>than it is a service order hardware company. IBM still

0:16:58.320 --> 0:17:02.160
<v Speaker 9>has a lot of footprint in legacy companies and their

0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:06.600
<v Speaker 9>internal infrastructure, whether that's a regulated entity, whether that's you know,

0:17:06.640 --> 0:17:10.399
<v Speaker 9>an on premise software. What they're basically saying is for

0:17:10.520 --> 0:17:13.680
<v Speaker 9>these companies who want to add more AI capabilities into

0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:16.120
<v Speaker 9>their infrastructure, we're going to use one of the best

0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:19.600
<v Speaker 9>models that's out there, and that's anthropic. They're not, you know,

0:17:19.720 --> 0:17:23.560
<v Speaker 9>just solely dependent on IBM's own internal models. But you know,

0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:25.960
<v Speaker 9>we see more and more of that happening that companies

0:17:26.040 --> 0:17:28.800
<v Speaker 9>like IBM and other services companies will go out and

0:17:29.200 --> 0:17:31.879
<v Speaker 9>partner with you know, anthropic with open ai which M

0:17:31.920 --> 0:17:36.160
<v Speaker 9>and I and give more enterprise capabilities to to vendors,

0:17:36.400 --> 0:17:37.000
<v Speaker 9>to companies.

0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:41.040
<v Speaker 2>Basically, how does anthropic differ from open ai if at all?

0:17:41.359 --> 0:17:43.880
<v Speaker 9>That's a very good question, Pauland right now what we're

0:17:43.880 --> 0:17:46.320
<v Speaker 9>seeing is entropy is pushing more and more stuff on

0:17:46.359 --> 0:17:50.040
<v Speaker 9>the corporate side or the enterprise side, on open Ai side.

0:17:50.040 --> 0:17:53.000
<v Speaker 9>You know, their core businesses still chat GPT, which is

0:17:53.040 --> 0:17:55.520
<v Speaker 9>the app, and that's more of a consumer app right now.

0:17:55.720 --> 0:17:58.280
<v Speaker 9>And the question is, you know which one of the

0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:01.239
<v Speaker 9>models will somebody use, Whether if you are let's say,

0:18:01.280 --> 0:18:03.400
<v Speaker 9>a JP Morgan or a City Corp, you know, would

0:18:03.400 --> 0:18:05.280
<v Speaker 9>you be going to be using one of their models

0:18:05.359 --> 0:18:07.919
<v Speaker 9>or an open source model. I think they're going to

0:18:07.920 --> 0:18:11.560
<v Speaker 9>be using all of the models. What anthropic relationship with

0:18:11.640 --> 0:18:14.280
<v Speaker 9>IBM does. It actually helps them to spread the word

0:18:14.320 --> 0:18:17.400
<v Speaker 9>out across their entire customer base. So if you are

0:18:17.400 --> 0:18:20.000
<v Speaker 9>trying to get more coding done, for example, in an

0:18:20.000 --> 0:18:22.960
<v Speaker 9>IT department and you have all the legacy products that

0:18:23.040 --> 0:18:26.000
<v Speaker 9>they're now you can use you know, an AI model

0:18:26.080 --> 0:18:28.920
<v Speaker 9>from Anthropic rather than using you know, whatever tools you

0:18:29.000 --> 0:18:29.600
<v Speaker 9>had before.

0:18:29.840 --> 0:18:33.240
<v Speaker 3>Okay, so it makes sense why Anthropic is a good

0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:36.359
<v Speaker 3>fit for IBM or how it's going to incorporate Anthropic

0:18:36.359 --> 0:18:40.480
<v Speaker 3>into IT software. But what does IBM specifically offer Anthropic?

0:18:40.560 --> 0:18:44.159
<v Speaker 3>What access does IBM have that Anthropic wants and needs.

0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:48.000
<v Speaker 9>That's another excellent question. And in this case you're looking

0:18:48.040 --> 0:18:51.640
<v Speaker 9>at IBM's entire customer base. IBM has a very large

0:18:51.640 --> 0:18:55.400
<v Speaker 9>services business or IBM consulting. These consultant will go out

0:18:55.440 --> 0:18:58.960
<v Speaker 9>and sell Anthropic software into the enterprises and say, hey, bank,

0:18:59.080 --> 0:19:02.080
<v Speaker 9>let me help you to you know, automate this particular

0:19:02.160 --> 0:19:04.639
<v Speaker 9>process and you can use it with this software. It

0:19:04.760 --> 0:19:07.520
<v Speaker 9>drives their consulting business and it also helps out their

0:19:07.560 --> 0:19:10.160
<v Speaker 9>software business, which is fairly popular.

0:19:10.240 --> 0:19:13.920
<v Speaker 2>Right now, IBM hitting all time high on a rug.

0:19:14.200 --> 0:19:16.119
<v Speaker 2>This stock has found that a new life has.

0:19:15.960 --> 0:19:18.600
<v Speaker 9>It absolutely and this is something that we've been saying

0:19:18.640 --> 0:19:21.119
<v Speaker 9>it for almost five years now that you know, the

0:19:21.680 --> 0:19:25.240
<v Speaker 9>acquisition of red Hat completely changed it. You know, if

0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:27.240
<v Speaker 9>you go back and look at some of the comments

0:19:27.240 --> 0:19:29.680
<v Speaker 9>we've made on TV about IBM. Prior to red Hat,

0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:32.000
<v Speaker 9>it was a very closed company. It only wanted to

0:19:32.000 --> 0:19:34.400
<v Speaker 9>sell their own products to people and was not very

0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:36.600
<v Speaker 9>keen on embracing you know, what I would say is

0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:40.080
<v Speaker 9>open source. With the acquisition of red Hat and the

0:19:40.119 --> 0:19:42.080
<v Speaker 9>company saying, you know what, red Hat can work with

0:19:42.160 --> 0:19:44.640
<v Speaker 9>any cloud provider, I think that was the biggest difference

0:19:44.680 --> 0:19:48.119
<v Speaker 9>to me was it allowed red Hat to work with

0:19:48.240 --> 0:19:53.159
<v Speaker 9>companies but based on Amazon Web Services or Microsoft, so

0:19:53.200 --> 0:19:55.600
<v Speaker 9>they were not just pushing their own cloud products, and

0:19:55.640 --> 0:19:58.639
<v Speaker 9>I think that really made a difference. Their software business

0:19:58.680 --> 0:20:01.800
<v Speaker 9>has been doing so well competitively to the rest of

0:20:01.840 --> 0:20:03.800
<v Speaker 9>the world, and I think that's where you see the

0:20:03.800 --> 0:20:06.760
<v Speaker 9>market validation that this is the right strategy for them.

0:20:06.880 --> 0:20:09.920
<v Speaker 2>Our thanks to Ana rog Rana Bloomberg Intelligence technology analysts.

0:20:10.160 --> 0:20:12.080
<v Speaker 3>We moved to some more news in the IT hardware

0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:13.920
<v Speaker 3>space this week and it's investor day.

0:20:13.920 --> 0:20:17.040
<v Speaker 2>Dell Technologies roughly doubled its growth estimates for sales and

0:20:17.080 --> 0:20:18.320
<v Speaker 2>profit for the next two years.

0:20:18.400 --> 0:20:21.640
<v Speaker 3>Dell also said demand for artificial intelligence products will extend

0:20:21.680 --> 0:20:24.080
<v Speaker 3>those higher projections at least through twenty thirty.

0:20:24.280 --> 0:20:27.560
<v Speaker 2>Separately, Cisco system says it is releasing a new chip

0:20:27.720 --> 0:20:31.360
<v Speaker 2>networking system to connect AIDATA centers across hundreds of miles.

0:20:31.440 --> 0:20:33.239
<v Speaker 3>So for more on both of these companies, we were

0:20:33.280 --> 0:20:36.800
<v Speaker 3>joined by Woujin Hoo Bloomberg Intelligence senior technology analysts. We

0:20:36.880 --> 0:20:39.320
<v Speaker 3>began by asking Woods should break down what we heard

0:20:39.359 --> 0:20:39.720
<v Speaker 3>from Dell.

0:20:40.200 --> 0:20:42.320
<v Speaker 5>This is a very seasoned management team. They have a

0:20:42.359 --> 0:20:45.480
<v Speaker 5>tendency to give out three to four year guidance plans.

0:20:45.960 --> 0:20:50.720
<v Speaker 5>I think the surprise here is what's driving that seventy

0:20:50.840 --> 0:20:54.280
<v Speaker 5>nine percent growth outlook for from twenty twenty six to

0:20:54.320 --> 0:20:57.000
<v Speaker 5>twenty twenty of twenty thirty, and it's going to be

0:20:57.040 --> 0:20:59.399
<v Speaker 5>AI servers, right, And one of the things that they

0:20:59.400 --> 0:21:01.359
<v Speaker 5>said at the Animal day that AI servers are going

0:21:01.440 --> 0:21:03.760
<v Speaker 5>to grow at a twenty to twenty five percent compounded rate.

0:21:04.800 --> 0:21:07.919
<v Speaker 5>I think there was some skepticism there heading into the

0:21:07.960 --> 0:21:11.080
<v Speaker 5>print in terms of is there an AI bubble? And

0:21:11.119 --> 0:21:14.320
<v Speaker 5>by laying out a twenty to twenty five percent AI

0:21:14.440 --> 0:21:18.479
<v Speaker 5>server growth going through twenty thirty off of already high numbers,

0:21:18.800 --> 0:21:21.200
<v Speaker 5>shows that there is some durability the aiserver demand.

0:21:21.880 --> 0:21:24.440
<v Speaker 2>So when you get an analyst meaning together, it's a

0:21:24.440 --> 0:21:26.040
<v Speaker 2>big day for a company. They put a lot of

0:21:26.040 --> 0:21:28.640
<v Speaker 2>time and effort in putting getting their senior management together,

0:21:28.680 --> 0:21:32.080
<v Speaker 2>putting together presentations, presenting a vision here. What were some

0:21:32.119 --> 0:21:33.840
<v Speaker 2>of the two or three takeaways from you from this

0:21:34.200 --> 0:21:34.840
<v Speaker 2>investor date.

0:21:35.160 --> 0:21:38.720
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so, so the one highlight here is the a

0:21:38.960 --> 0:21:43.560
<v Speaker 5>server demand, the durability of a server demand. But more importantly,

0:21:44.800 --> 0:21:47.320
<v Speaker 5>and we talk about this all the time, you know, Paul,

0:21:47.760 --> 0:21:50.639
<v Speaker 5>It's about earnings and cash flow, right And at the

0:21:50.760 --> 0:21:53.600
<v Speaker 5>end of the day, we're talking about EPs growth about

0:21:53.600 --> 0:21:56.280
<v Speaker 5>fifteen percent, and how do we get to that fifteen percent?

0:21:56.600 --> 0:22:00.760
<v Speaker 5>We're talking about eight percent of the sales growth dropping

0:22:00.760 --> 0:22:03.320
<v Speaker 5>down to the bottom line. But given all that cash generation,

0:22:03.480 --> 0:22:05.440
<v Speaker 5>there's going to be a fair amount of capital returns

0:22:05.720 --> 0:22:08.280
<v Speaker 5>through buybacks, so you're going to get a lift on

0:22:08.320 --> 0:22:10.640
<v Speaker 5>EPs there. So share holders are going to be happy

0:22:11.760 --> 0:22:15.720
<v Speaker 5>from an EPs standpoint. We're already seeing that from evaluation standpoint,

0:22:16.200 --> 0:22:19.520
<v Speaker 5>because it is lifting from an eight to ten times

0:22:20.240 --> 0:22:23.080
<v Speaker 5>PE to about fifteen times growth, which makes it into

0:22:23.119 --> 0:22:25.000
<v Speaker 5>a one times peg oo gien.

0:22:25.080 --> 0:22:27.560
<v Speaker 3>Another story that we're tracking here and that I've been

0:22:27.560 --> 0:22:32.080
<v Speaker 3>fascinated by, is this idea of legacy tech companies finding

0:22:32.280 --> 0:22:35.800
<v Speaker 3>their feed in this AI wave, whether it's Oracle, whether

0:22:35.840 --> 0:22:39.080
<v Speaker 3>it's Dell, and now Cisco as well. Cisco is releasing

0:22:39.080 --> 0:22:42.920
<v Speaker 3>a new chip and networking system to connect AI data centers,

0:22:43.160 --> 0:22:45.159
<v Speaker 3>and this is a move that pretty much puts it

0:22:45.240 --> 0:22:49.160
<v Speaker 3>in more direct competition with Broadcom. How big of an

0:22:49.200 --> 0:22:52.200
<v Speaker 3>opportunity is this for Cisco? And should Broadcome be worried?

0:22:53.359 --> 0:22:57.240
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so we published and react, and essentially I don't

0:22:57.240 --> 0:22:59.879
<v Speaker 5>think Broadcom should be fully worried. There's a couple of

0:22:59.880 --> 0:23:02.639
<v Speaker 5>thing that I'll say, right, Cisco is actually one of

0:23:02.720 --> 0:23:08.040
<v Speaker 5>the biggest chip networking chip manufacturers globally, but more for

0:23:08.160 --> 0:23:12.359
<v Speaker 5>their legacy enterprise IT chips. Right, they produce their own

0:23:12.440 --> 0:23:15.879
<v Speaker 5>chips that powers their own networking gear. They're fairly newer

0:23:15.920 --> 0:23:20.800
<v Speaker 5>to the game in the networking chip side. From a

0:23:20.840 --> 0:23:24.639
<v Speaker 5>revenue standpoint, it's really not a big driver, but it

0:23:24.680 --> 0:23:27.280
<v Speaker 5>may be able to push more boxes. A couple of

0:23:27.320 --> 0:23:30.320
<v Speaker 5>things that I'll say, They did about one billion dollars

0:23:30.320 --> 0:23:34.320
<v Speaker 5>in AI back end revenue, but to put that into context,

0:23:35.280 --> 0:23:37.199
<v Speaker 5>you know they're doing about fifty five to fifty six

0:23:37.280 --> 0:23:41.080
<v Speaker 5>billion dollars in total sales. So you know, from an

0:23:41.080 --> 0:23:44.480
<v Speaker 5>overall percentage of AI as an overall percentage of sales,

0:23:44.480 --> 0:23:46.399
<v Speaker 5>it's still about two to three percent of total sales.

0:23:47.040 --> 0:23:50.080
<v Speaker 5>Are they going to challenge Broadcom? I doubt it, but

0:23:50.119 --> 0:23:52.960
<v Speaker 5>I do think there'll be a second source to the

0:23:53.000 --> 0:23:57.040
<v Speaker 5>cloud providers versus Broadcom.

0:23:57.160 --> 0:24:00.480
<v Speaker 2>Which in your coverage area? What's your best I play?

0:24:00.520 --> 0:24:02.560
<v Speaker 2>Because I'm sure you get that call from clients all

0:24:02.600 --> 0:24:03.240
<v Speaker 2>the time.

0:24:04.240 --> 0:24:08.919
<v Speaker 5>You know, I mean I have a handful. Dell was one.

0:24:10.640 --> 0:24:13.200
<v Speaker 5>You know. Hp is another one to take a look

0:24:13.240 --> 0:24:16.280
<v Speaker 5>out for. They have an analyst day next week. But

0:24:16.560 --> 0:24:19.119
<v Speaker 5>from from a networking standpoint, Arista has actually been one

0:24:19.119 --> 0:24:21.760
<v Speaker 5>of the high flyers from from the from from a

0:24:21.800 --> 0:24:25.920
<v Speaker 5>networking standpoint, so I will look at Arista and people

0:24:26.000 --> 0:24:32.160
<v Speaker 5>have been taking the AI networking angle and using Arista

0:24:32.160 --> 0:24:33.200
<v Speaker 5>as one of the tools.

0:24:33.400 --> 0:24:35.040
<v Speaker 3>I like that Arista. I haven't heard that one come

0:24:35.080 --> 0:24:38.880
<v Speaker 3>up yet. You know, HPE or HPQ Just to clarify.

0:24:38.960 --> 0:24:42.480
<v Speaker 5>Oh, HPE. So think think of it as a mini

0:24:42.600 --> 0:24:44.720
<v Speaker 5>Dell and a mini Cisco.

0:24:44.440 --> 0:24:47.480
<v Speaker 2>In one our thanks to Will Jino Bloomberg Intelligence senior

0:24:47.520 --> 0:24:48.440
<v Speaker 2>technology analysts.

0:24:48.680 --> 0:24:50.280
<v Speaker 3>Coming up, we'll look at why the owner of the

0:24:50.320 --> 0:24:53.800
<v Speaker 3>Corona and Wdella, especially ol brands reported positive quarrely results.

0:24:53.880 --> 0:24:56.600
<v Speaker 2>You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio, but riding

0:24:56.600 --> 0:24:58.720
<v Speaker 2>in depth research and data on two thousand companies and

0:24:58.760 --> 0:24:59.960
<v Speaker 2>one hundred and thirty industries.

0:25:00.040 --> 0:25:03.120
<v Speaker 3>You can access Bloomberg Intelligence through Bigo on the terminal.

0:25:03.200 --> 0:25:04.320
<v Speaker 3>I'm Scarlettfoo and.

0:25:04.200 --> 0:25:06.200
<v Speaker 2>I'm Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg.

0:25:14.080 --> 0:25:19.000
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarletfoo and Paul Sweeney on

0:25:19.160 --> 0:25:20.240
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio.

0:25:21.119 --> 0:25:23.359
<v Speaker 2>Move next to some news in the consumer product space.

0:25:23.480 --> 0:25:26.920
<v Speaker 3>This week, Constellation Brands, which owns Corona and Wdella especial

0:25:26.960 --> 0:25:29.760
<v Speaker 3>brands in the US, reported better than expected results for

0:25:29.800 --> 0:25:32.840
<v Speaker 3>its fiscal second quarter. The company cited robust beer and

0:25:32.920 --> 0:25:33.560
<v Speaker 3>wine sales.

0:25:33.760 --> 0:25:36.440
<v Speaker 2>This comes despite the company stock falling more than thirty

0:25:36.480 --> 0:25:39.600
<v Speaker 2>percent this year. Beer an alcoholic beverages in general have

0:25:39.640 --> 0:25:42.600
<v Speaker 2>broadly struggled as younger consumers and women drink less.

0:25:42.640 --> 0:25:44.159
<v Speaker 3>So for more on this and other news in the

0:25:44.160 --> 0:25:47.040
<v Speaker 3>consumer space, we were joined by Ken Sha, Bloomberg Intelligence

0:25:47.119 --> 0:25:48.640
<v Speaker 3>senior consumer products analyst.

0:25:48.960 --> 0:25:51.560
<v Speaker 2>First, ask Ken more about why Constellation Brands had been

0:25:51.600 --> 0:25:52.520
<v Speaker 2>struggling this year.

0:25:52.920 --> 0:25:58.440
<v Speaker 10>It's definitely a slow beer market. Tariffs are playing a role,

0:25:59.440 --> 0:26:03.320
<v Speaker 10>and also some of the crackdown you know, the ice

0:26:03.359 --> 0:26:07.119
<v Speaker 10>has had in inner community is hurting the Hispanic community

0:26:07.240 --> 0:26:10.040
<v Speaker 10>and their socialization trends. All these things have been a

0:26:10.040 --> 0:26:12.679
<v Speaker 10>factor for the last couple of quarters. The company said

0:26:12.800 --> 0:26:16.560
<v Speaker 10>that their beer volumes were not quite as poor as

0:26:16.640 --> 0:26:19.639
<v Speaker 10>a lot of street analysts expected. But the pressures are

0:26:19.640 --> 0:26:23.399
<v Speaker 10>still on and they're very real for this company. And

0:26:23.400 --> 0:26:26.760
<v Speaker 10>that's because they're suite of products. As you mentioned Corona Medello,

0:26:27.080 --> 0:26:30.359
<v Speaker 10>these command high price points about twice the level of

0:26:30.400 --> 0:26:34.040
<v Speaker 10>a popular beer, so in times where consumers are pulling

0:26:34.080 --> 0:26:37.760
<v Speaker 10>back a little cautious about expenditures, got to remember, you know,

0:26:37.800 --> 0:26:40.320
<v Speaker 10>you've had high inflationary pricing in this category for the

0:26:40.400 --> 0:26:44.560
<v Speaker 10>last few years. These brands aren't doing so well right now,

0:26:44.880 --> 0:26:47.119
<v Speaker 10>and then compounding that with some of the factors that

0:26:47.160 --> 0:26:51.160
<v Speaker 10>I mentioned and some longer term issues like cannabis substitution

0:26:51.359 --> 0:26:54.440
<v Speaker 10>things we talked about GLP one user not drinking as much,

0:26:54.920 --> 0:26:58.320
<v Speaker 10>moderation among gen Z. All these things are weighing of

0:26:58.359 --> 0:26:59.280
<v Speaker 10>a company right now.

0:27:00.080 --> 0:27:02.439
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I'm super interested in what you said about the

0:27:02.480 --> 0:27:05.800
<v Speaker 3>last part, Like the structural changes in consumer tastes, especially

0:27:05.880 --> 0:27:10.680
<v Speaker 3>from gen Z younger people overall, beers just not where

0:27:10.720 --> 0:27:13.080
<v Speaker 3>people want to be spending their money necessarily.

0:27:14.160 --> 0:27:16.080
<v Speaker 10>That seems to be the case. You know, it's it's

0:27:16.080 --> 0:27:18.080
<v Speaker 10>been around a long time. It's one hundred and fifteen

0:27:18.119 --> 0:27:22.919
<v Speaker 10>billion dollar market that is growing very slowly. It's especially flat.

0:27:23.160 --> 0:27:26.080
<v Speaker 10>In fact, volumes are expected to be down low single

0:27:26.080 --> 0:27:29.240
<v Speaker 10>digit this year. So clearly it's a very mature category.

0:27:29.440 --> 0:27:30.840
<v Speaker 10>And what we've seen in over the last few years

0:27:30.960 --> 0:27:33.520
<v Speaker 10>is consumers just want different tastes. You know, you have

0:27:33.560 --> 0:27:36.959
<v Speaker 10>a proliferation of the ray to drink cocktails, you know,

0:27:37.040 --> 0:27:41.800
<v Speaker 10>like truly and white clothes and more sophisticate you know,

0:27:41.880 --> 0:27:44.119
<v Speaker 10>Margarita's in a can and so on. That's where a

0:27:44.160 --> 0:27:47.359
<v Speaker 10>lot of the consumers who wants tastes experimentation are going.

0:27:47.880 --> 0:27:50.399
<v Speaker 10>And then you have other more mundane factors like just

0:27:50.800 --> 0:27:54.680
<v Speaker 10>you know, calorie more conscientious, calorie counts, and all these

0:27:54.680 --> 0:27:57.240
<v Speaker 10>things are just weighing on this very very mature industry.

0:27:58.200 --> 0:28:00.480
<v Speaker 2>So somebody like Constellation Brands, did they go out and

0:28:00.480 --> 0:28:04.440
<v Speaker 2>look to maybe buy some of these brands or verticals

0:28:04.440 --> 0:28:07.159
<v Speaker 2>that within the spirit's business may be growing.

0:28:08.720 --> 0:28:13.320
<v Speaker 10>Well, they've had kind of a mixed history of M

0:28:13.320 --> 0:28:15.199
<v Speaker 10>and A over the last few years. I'll put it

0:28:15.280 --> 0:28:18.919
<v Speaker 10>up me kind say that way, not really, you know,

0:28:19.080 --> 0:28:22.400
<v Speaker 10>they're downsizing their wine and spirit segment and try to

0:28:22.720 --> 0:28:24.960
<v Speaker 10>shift it to more of a high end mix, which

0:28:25.000 --> 0:28:27.880
<v Speaker 10>I think they're having success with. But what that does

0:28:27.960 --> 0:28:30.879
<v Speaker 10>is it makes their beer business even that much more important.

0:28:30.920 --> 0:28:33.720
<v Speaker 10>It's now about eighty five percent of their sales. So

0:28:33.880 --> 0:28:36.800
<v Speaker 10>as beer goes, I mean, the company has really good

0:28:36.840 --> 0:28:41.000
<v Speaker 10>brands and a lot of brand loyalty there. But again

0:28:41.040 --> 0:28:42.400
<v Speaker 10>there's not a lot of wiggle room.

0:28:42.600 --> 0:28:46.640
<v Speaker 3>So with beer becoming less popular, and you mentioned other

0:28:47.000 --> 0:28:51.920
<v Speaker 3>big trends like ozebic, weight loss, drugs and greater cannabis use,

0:28:52.520 --> 0:28:55.640
<v Speaker 3>what is Constlation doing about non alcoholic beverages.

0:28:57.280 --> 0:29:01.480
<v Speaker 10>So they've rolled out a non alcoholic Corona. They've come

0:29:01.520 --> 0:29:03.640
<v Speaker 10>out a couple of years ago. They came out with

0:29:03.640 --> 0:29:09.440
<v Speaker 10>a low calorie brand called Medello ro Corona no alcohol

0:29:10.040 --> 0:29:13.600
<v Speaker 10>I mentioned. So those two brands, while they're relatively small,

0:29:13.880 --> 0:29:16.920
<v Speaker 10>they see, you know, a lot of opportunity that's on

0:29:17.120 --> 0:29:21.440
<v Speaker 10>trend with what you said, so you know they're doing that.

0:29:21.640 --> 0:29:25.600
<v Speaker 10>They're also modifying some of their portfolio for more taste.

0:29:25.640 --> 0:29:27.880
<v Speaker 10>There's the consumers that want a lot of taste. They're

0:29:27.880 --> 0:29:33.280
<v Speaker 10>coming out with, you know, a fruity surveysa and so

0:29:33.720 --> 0:29:35.880
<v Speaker 10>they're doing as much as they can to stay on

0:29:35.960 --> 0:29:36.959
<v Speaker 10>trend with consumers.

0:29:37.320 --> 0:29:40.320
<v Speaker 3>I love myself a great fruit beer. Yeah, there's a

0:29:40.320 --> 0:29:43.640
<v Speaker 3>German great fruit beer that I really like. Yeah, tastes good.

0:29:43.960 --> 0:29:46.520
<v Speaker 2>Talk to us about this legal cannabis and obesity drugs

0:29:46.520 --> 0:29:49.400
<v Speaker 2>and the impact that's having on kind of the beer business,

0:29:49.400 --> 0:29:52.040
<v Speaker 2>the spirits business overall. Ken, is that something that a

0:29:52.040 --> 0:29:53.360
<v Speaker 2>lot of your companies are calling out.

0:29:54.120 --> 0:29:56.880
<v Speaker 10>Bi came out of their fourth annual consumer survey on

0:29:57.480 --> 0:30:03.320
<v Speaker 10>beverage preferences, and again we see that consumers are substituting

0:30:04.240 --> 0:30:09.240
<v Speaker 10>cannabis for alcohol. Of consumers that do partake in cannabis,

0:30:09.560 --> 0:30:13.840
<v Speaker 10>now more than half have substituted for alcohol at least

0:30:13.880 --> 0:30:16.680
<v Speaker 10>once a week, and that's up from forty six percent

0:30:16.760 --> 0:30:18.880
<v Speaker 10>last year. So that's a trend that just keeps moving.

0:30:19.480 --> 0:30:22.120
<v Speaker 10>Now you're seeing a lot of these cannabis companies coming

0:30:22.120 --> 0:30:26.280
<v Speaker 10>out with hemp THC products beverages that are sold in

0:30:26.360 --> 0:30:30.640
<v Speaker 10>mainstream liquor stores. You know, traditional cannabis, legal cannabis sold

0:30:30.680 --> 0:30:33.640
<v Speaker 10>in dispensaries. It was not really a big hit, but

0:30:33.800 --> 0:30:38.200
<v Speaker 10>now that some of these federally legal hemp based THC

0:30:38.360 --> 0:30:41.560
<v Speaker 10>products beverages are sold in liquor stores right next to

0:30:41.600 --> 0:30:44.840
<v Speaker 10>the beer rile. In about half the states of the country,

0:30:45.200 --> 0:30:48.480
<v Speaker 10>that's really chipping away also at beer consumption.

0:30:49.480 --> 0:30:51.840
<v Speaker 3>Final question to you, Ken, what about return of cash

0:30:51.880 --> 0:30:54.440
<v Speaker 3>to shareholders. I'm looking at the dividend yield about two

0:30:54.480 --> 0:30:59.040
<v Speaker 3>point nine percent if you're being generous. Is Constellation Brands

0:30:59.080 --> 0:31:01.640
<v Speaker 3>still able to make good on its dividends continue buying

0:31:01.640 --> 0:31:02.320
<v Speaker 3>back its shares?

0:31:03.280 --> 0:31:07.680
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, that's an important point, Scarlett. Yes, they can despite

0:31:07.720 --> 0:31:11.040
<v Speaker 10>the pressure on sales. Believe it or not, the operating

0:31:11.040 --> 0:31:14.520
<v Speaker 10>margins and Constellation generates are best in class. They're about

0:31:14.520 --> 0:31:18.479
<v Speaker 10>twice that of other alcoholic beverage companies in general, so

0:31:18.520 --> 0:31:20.880
<v Speaker 10>they have strong cash flows. As a matter of fact,

0:31:20.920 --> 0:31:24.520
<v Speaker 10>they're winding down construction of a brewery right now. Over

0:31:24.520 --> 0:31:26.320
<v Speaker 10>the next couple of years, you're going to see free

0:31:26.320 --> 0:31:29.400
<v Speaker 10>cash flow likely rising. So it's high in rising and

0:31:29.440 --> 0:31:33.400
<v Speaker 10>that's enabling them to continue to meet their commitments to

0:31:33.520 --> 0:31:34.880
<v Speaker 10>share buybacks and dividends.

0:31:35.360 --> 0:31:38.160
<v Speaker 3>Our thanks to Kenneth Shae Bloomberg Intelligence, a senior consumer

0:31:38.200 --> 0:31:39.000
<v Speaker 3>products analyst.

0:31:39.240 --> 0:31:42.480
<v Speaker 2>We move next to some news on Intercontinental Exchange or ICE.

0:31:42.760 --> 0:31:44.760
<v Speaker 3>This week we heard the company plans to invest as

0:31:44.800 --> 0:31:47.720
<v Speaker 3>much as two billion dollars in cash in polymarket, which

0:31:47.800 --> 0:31:49.640
<v Speaker 3>is a crypto based betting platform.

0:31:49.800 --> 0:31:52.720
<v Speaker 2>The transaction values poly market at roughly eight billion dollars,

0:31:53.000 --> 0:31:55.520
<v Speaker 2>and ICE will become a global distributor of poly markets

0:31:55.600 --> 0:31:56.760
<v Speaker 2>event driven data.

0:31:56.840 --> 0:31:59.560
<v Speaker 3>We are joined by Catherine Doherty, Bloomberg Finance Reporter. We

0:31:59.600 --> 0:32:01.920
<v Speaker 3>first Catherine for some more background on ICE.

0:32:02.400 --> 0:32:06.080
<v Speaker 6>It runs on the blockchain. So you have this storied institution,

0:32:06.440 --> 0:32:09.719
<v Speaker 6>ICE that owns the New York Stock Exchange, as you mentioned,

0:32:10.200 --> 0:32:12.640
<v Speaker 6>and they're putting their money where their mouth is. It

0:32:12.680 --> 0:32:16.000
<v Speaker 6>really is an indication of where the market is headed.

0:32:16.320 --> 0:32:19.560
<v Speaker 6>So you have these institutional players that are teaming up

0:32:19.960 --> 0:32:23.200
<v Speaker 6>with either crypto native firms or in this case it's

0:32:23.240 --> 0:32:28.200
<v Speaker 6>also the prediction market based players. And we have seen

0:32:28.200 --> 0:32:32.360
<v Speaker 6>this recently with also CME, the derivatives exchange based in Chicago.

0:32:32.720 --> 0:32:36.760
<v Speaker 6>They're partnering with FanDuel, and most people associate FanDuel with

0:32:36.920 --> 0:32:41.360
<v Speaker 6>sports betting, but they are big in prediction markets as well.

0:32:41.520 --> 0:32:47.560
<v Speaker 6>And with CME and FanDuel, they're doing a markets based

0:32:47.680 --> 0:32:51.480
<v Speaker 6>prediction of yes or no will for example, gold Bee

0:32:51.520 --> 0:32:57.240
<v Speaker 6>above a certain benchmark. And this announcement also shows a

0:32:57.560 --> 0:33:02.760
<v Speaker 6>storied institution kind of getting behind the newer incumbents and

0:33:02.880 --> 0:33:07.000
<v Speaker 6>showing where they see the next phase of the market headed.

0:33:07.160 --> 0:33:10.360
<v Speaker 2>What does polymarket really do? I see them quoted around

0:33:10.360 --> 0:33:11.400
<v Speaker 2>in the press and things like that.

0:33:11.520 --> 0:33:14.280
<v Speaker 6>So you've probably seen polymarket around the time of the election.

0:33:14.400 --> 0:33:18.000
<v Speaker 6>They were one of the platforms that users were placing

0:33:18.080 --> 0:33:20.840
<v Speaker 6>bets on who was going to win the presidential election.

0:33:22.120 --> 0:33:25.200
<v Speaker 6>They at a time were also in the news around

0:33:25.200 --> 0:33:29.760
<v Speaker 6>twenty twenty two because they were prohibited from actually operating

0:33:30.000 --> 0:33:34.800
<v Speaker 6>in the US, and more recently in the last few

0:33:34.840 --> 0:33:37.920
<v Speaker 6>months in twenty twenty five, they've re entered the US market,

0:33:38.080 --> 0:33:42.160
<v Speaker 6>and they've done so through two avenues. One, it's a

0:33:42.240 --> 0:33:48.760
<v Speaker 6>changing regulatory environment, it's a crypto friendly regulatory regime. And

0:33:49.200 --> 0:33:55.360
<v Speaker 6>number two, they bought their own regulated derivatives platform that

0:33:55.560 --> 0:33:59.160
<v Speaker 6>essentially allowed them it was a pathway back into the

0:33:59.320 --> 0:34:00.240
<v Speaker 6>United States market.

0:34:01.000 --> 0:34:04.320
<v Speaker 3>So with this deal, which values Polymarket at about eight

0:34:04.360 --> 0:34:09.160
<v Speaker 3>billion dollars, cee ICE becomes the global distributor of Polymarket's

0:34:09.320 --> 0:34:12.120
<v Speaker 3>event driven data. What does that mean to have that

0:34:12.280 --> 0:34:15.640
<v Speaker 3>data now in its hands? What can it do with

0:34:15.680 --> 0:34:18.600
<v Speaker 3>that information? Because exchanges don't just they're not just a

0:34:18.600 --> 0:34:22.439
<v Speaker 3>platform for collecting commissions on trades. They're also huge source

0:34:22.520 --> 0:34:24.200
<v Speaker 3>of information data that they then sell.

0:34:24.320 --> 0:34:27.120
<v Speaker 6>That's right, it's a huge part of their business, and

0:34:27.200 --> 0:34:30.960
<v Speaker 6>you have these big institutions that are paying millions of

0:34:31.000 --> 0:34:36.400
<v Speaker 6>dollars for access to this data. And as the market

0:34:36.520 --> 0:34:41.759
<v Speaker 6>becomes a mix of institutional client base and retail clients

0:34:42.200 --> 0:34:46.520
<v Speaker 6>that data these companies, you have ICE, you have polymarket.

0:34:47.440 --> 0:34:52.279
<v Speaker 6>This combination is giving ICE access to retail clients that

0:34:52.280 --> 0:34:56.120
<v Speaker 6>they otherwise wouldn't necessarily have access to, and vice versa.

0:34:56.280 --> 0:35:00.800
<v Speaker 6>Polymarket gets now all of their data displayed through ICE

0:35:00.920 --> 0:35:06.680
<v Speaker 6>channels that institutional clients have been set up and working

0:35:06.680 --> 0:35:10.879
<v Speaker 6>with ICE for years. So it's a fast entry way

0:35:11.000 --> 0:35:16.759
<v Speaker 6>for both companies to increase their user base, increase their access,

0:35:16.960 --> 0:35:22.040
<v Speaker 6>and how they market themselves to an entirely new client.

0:35:22.480 --> 0:35:25.839
<v Speaker 2>So it just feels like some of these traditional exchanges,

0:35:25.880 --> 0:35:29.319
<v Speaker 2>if you will, I think, are they saying, basically, if

0:35:29.320 --> 0:35:30.840
<v Speaker 2>we want to grow in the future, we have to

0:35:30.880 --> 0:35:34.600
<v Speaker 2>embrace some of these new asset classes, whether it's crypto

0:35:34.800 --> 0:35:38.600
<v Speaker 2>or whether it's predictive markets and things like. Is that

0:35:38.680 --> 0:35:39.680
<v Speaker 2>kind of what they're telling us.

0:35:39.800 --> 0:35:42.120
<v Speaker 6>I think that it's very much where they see their

0:35:42.160 --> 0:35:47.400
<v Speaker 6>clients headed. There's a blurring line between you have hedge

0:35:47.400 --> 0:35:51.720
<v Speaker 6>funds and traditional institutional firms, and then you have retail

0:35:51.800 --> 0:35:55.960
<v Speaker 6>investors that at a time, there was so much news

0:35:56.440 --> 0:36:02.400
<v Speaker 6>during the memestock era around who these users were that

0:36:02.440 --> 0:36:06.240
<v Speaker 6>were in their basements, But now these are really sophisticated

0:36:06.760 --> 0:36:11.840
<v Speaker 6>investors that are playing in the options market prediction markets.

0:36:12.440 --> 0:36:16.920
<v Speaker 6>Many of the leaders of these exchanges are saying there

0:36:17.000 --> 0:36:20.399
<v Speaker 6>is no difference between what we've been running and at

0:36:20.480 --> 0:36:25.799
<v Speaker 6>least a binary yes or no. Is this index going

0:36:25.880 --> 0:36:30.799
<v Speaker 6>to be above or below a certain threshold. They're combining

0:36:31.160 --> 0:36:34.400
<v Speaker 6>to what was presumably two different worlds into one now.

0:36:34.880 --> 0:36:39.480
<v Speaker 3>And competitors at polymarket include Calshi Andcrypto dot Com. Are

0:36:39.480 --> 0:36:42.040
<v Speaker 3>you anticipating, Catherine, There's going to be similar tie ups

0:36:42.040 --> 0:36:43.400
<v Speaker 3>for those companies as well.

0:36:43.440 --> 0:36:46.480
<v Speaker 6>There is a race too. I believe that this is

0:36:46.920 --> 0:36:50.480
<v Speaker 6>just the start, or really the CME partnership with FanDuel

0:36:50.640 --> 0:36:53.280
<v Speaker 6>was kind of the first indication. This is just another

0:36:53.680 --> 0:36:55.200
<v Speaker 6>and I think that it's going to be off to

0:36:55.239 --> 0:36:57.960
<v Speaker 6>the races in terms of who partners up next, because

0:36:58.320 --> 0:37:02.759
<v Speaker 6>you to build something for scratch is hard, and when

0:37:02.800 --> 0:37:06.640
<v Speaker 6>you partner with a existing client base too, it is

0:37:06.680 --> 0:37:09.800
<v Speaker 6>an easy way in to an entirely new market.

0:37:10.200 --> 0:37:14.000
<v Speaker 2>It wasn't cheap. I'm reading Bloomberg Intelligence research react from

0:37:14.040 --> 0:37:18.120
<v Speaker 2>Paul Goldberg. This acquisition applies fifty times revenue.

0:37:18.280 --> 0:37:19.439
<v Speaker 9>Is the purchase price there.

0:37:20.040 --> 0:37:21.759
<v Speaker 2>That's not cheap and it's an all cash deal.

0:37:21.960 --> 0:37:25.000
<v Speaker 3>They're just saying we're in our Thanks to Catherine Doherty,

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg News Finance Reporter.

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<v Speaker 2>It's this week's edition of Bloomberg Intelligence on Bloomberg Radio,

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<v Speaker 2>providing in depth research and data on two thousand companies

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<v Speaker 2>and one hundred and thirty industries.

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<v Speaker 3>And remember you can access Bloomberg Intelligence via bi Go

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<v Speaker 3>on the terminal. I'm Scarlet Foo.

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<v Speaker 2>And I'm Paul Sweeney. Stay with us. Today's top stories

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<v Speaker 2>and global business headlines are coming up right now