1 00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:04,720 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that Action boss. 2 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:07,960 Speaker 2: All right. 3 00:00:08,000 --> 00:00:09,920 Speaker 1: Here we go in front of the test. 4 00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 2: We're throwing in song spect. 5 00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 3: We're sitting it to cash to stop. 6 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,079 Speaker 2: That's all we see. Most gamble is when they go 7 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 2: to gamble, they go to wind. That's incredible being bank, 8 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:23,759 Speaker 2: small bank. 9 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:26,360 Speaker 1: I like to make money. All right, this is the 10 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: ultimate kabine you want to pass. 11 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:35,160 Speaker 3: And we are under way again. 12 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:38,160 Speaker 1: I have the Thanksgiving we got it to decon, right. 13 00:00:38,080 --> 00:00:41,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, this thing here is a deep bone duck stuffed 14 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:44,839 Speaker 3: in a deep bone chicken stuffed in a deep bone turkey. 15 00:00:45,320 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 3: We're stuffing now you're talking. 16 00:00:47,240 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 2: Happy Thanksgiving everybody. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented 17 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 2: by DraftKings. I'm your host, Chris Raybon. It's NFL Week thirteen. 18 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 2: It's time for some more anytime touchdowns. As always, I'll 19 00:00:57,880 --> 00:00:59,840 Speaker 2: be joined by one of the most accurate rankers in 20 00:00:59,880 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 2: the game, Sean Kerner. I'll be joined by touchdown betting 21 00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:08,319 Speaker 2: savant Jill Gallant. We also are going to get into 22 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 2: the full slate, but first on this show, we're gonna 23 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 2: have the Thanksgiving slate. Last week we hit on Jaden Higgins, 24 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 2: Mitch Tinsley, Parker Washington, Dak Prescott, Dwan Jennings, and Tez Johnson. 25 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 2: If you want to tell some of these bets, will 26 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 2: for the quick slip link in the podcast or video description, 27 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 2: or go to actionnetwork dot com slash bet Now before 28 00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:30,959 Speaker 2: we get into the touchdowns, I'll toss it over to 29 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:33,960 Speaker 2: myself for a word from our sponsors. The Action Network 30 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 2: podcast is sponsored by Draft Kings sportsbook and in partnership 31 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:41,040 Speaker 2: with DraftKings. Action Network podcast listeners get a great offer 32 00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 2: right now. 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All right, Curner, 42 00:02:14,480 --> 00:02:17,160 Speaker 2: what's going on? We got the packers at the lines 43 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 2: happy Thanksgiving. Give me your biggest Thanksgiving hot take in 44 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 2: terms of what is the worst side on Thanksgiving? What 45 00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:26,160 Speaker 2: is the side that people like? 46 00:02:26,200 --> 00:02:26,919 Speaker 1: He just don't. 47 00:02:29,800 --> 00:02:32,920 Speaker 3: Well, I don't like turkey. I know that's controversial. I 48 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 3: just skept turkey. Uh My grandma used to make a 49 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:39,440 Speaker 3: ham specifically for me. So I'm fading turkey the most 50 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:42,160 Speaker 3: important part of the meal. Everything else I love, though, 51 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 3: except for the turkey. 52 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:45,919 Speaker 2: Yeah, I could, I could actually get behind it. I mean, 53 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 2: turkey is not essential. If you got you got a 54 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:53,080 Speaker 2: bunch of the other, you know, the other. Come on, Yeah, 55 00:02:53,120 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 2: I mean I don't mind that. But it's not like 56 00:02:55,560 --> 00:02:59,119 Speaker 2: I'm gonna actually full asleep. But who do you Who 57 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,560 Speaker 2: do we got for this Lions Packers game? 58 00:03:02,720 --> 00:03:05,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go with brock Right at plus three ten. 59 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 3: So with Sam Laporta and I are he's essentially the 60 00:03:11,200 --> 00:03:14,080 Speaker 3: Sam Laporta plus brock Right role right now. With a 61 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:18,080 Speaker 3: seventy three percent routes run rate last week, gonna be 62 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 3: out there for most of the red snaps, red zone snaps, 63 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:24,359 Speaker 3: two no touchdowns in these last two games without Laporter, 64 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:26,080 Speaker 3: So I think this is a good time to buy low. 65 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 3: He did miss Monday's walkthrough with the neck injury, so 66 00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 3: you know there's a chance he doesn't suit up, but 67 00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 3: our bets will get voided in that case, and this 68 00:03:33,480 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 3: will be a two laker. But assuming he suits up 69 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:37,680 Speaker 3: and he gets out there, I think plus three ten 70 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:38,800 Speaker 3: is a good time to buy low. 71 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 2: Would you buy would you buy his backup like it 72 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:44,720 Speaker 2: would probably be I guess Dwelly or Ferkster or would 73 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 2: you just kind of lay off if he was out, 74 00:03:46,560 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 2: I'd lay off. 75 00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 3: Plus they'd probably be offering odds right now that, like, 76 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:55,520 Speaker 3: you know, he's out, so I'd hold off. Brock Rights 77 00:03:55,560 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 3: a big boy. I think he'll still suit up for Thanksgiving. 78 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 3: It was just walk through anyway, so I'm assuming he'll 79 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:02,800 Speaker 3: be out there. 80 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:07,920 Speaker 2: All right, Jilly Thanksgiving? Any any Thanksgiving hot takes? What's 81 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 2: your what's your favorite side? 82 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 1: Well, as a Canadian, my Thanksgiving happened about six weeks ago, 83 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:17,159 Speaker 1: so already I'm already ahead of the game. But my 84 00:04:17,560 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 1: I don't know if it's controversial. I'm not a big 85 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:21,160 Speaker 1: Cranberry guy. I don't I don't really like a lot 86 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,239 Speaker 1: of the Cranberry sides anything like that. But again, especially 87 00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:26,480 Speaker 1: because I've been to some Thanksgivings and they just use 88 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 1: the can Cranberry. You just see it slide right out 89 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:30,719 Speaker 1: of the can. It looks like that's just that's just 90 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 1: that's just me. I'm not into that. 91 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 2: No Cranberry slander on this show. I gotta keep ocean spray. 92 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:38,440 Speaker 2: I keep the Ocean spray cans in my fridge all 93 00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 2: year round. 94 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:43,840 Speaker 3: Ray. But I would say, like if it's in a 95 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,080 Speaker 3: side bowl by itself, it's fine, but when it infiltrates 96 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:50,359 Speaker 3: the mashed potatoes and everything else, like it infects everything, 97 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 3: you know what I mean? 98 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 2: Oh no, No, it's all about presentation. I put it 99 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 2: in like the clear romikn like do you know what 100 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 2: I mean? Like you gotta get come on man that 101 00:04:57,480 --> 00:05:00,280 Speaker 2: and some stove top man. All right, I know who 102 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:02,200 Speaker 2: you got for Packers lines. 103 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 1: All right, this one won't be as much of a 104 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:07,159 Speaker 1: hot take. Christian Watson. I like him to score a 105 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:09,599 Speaker 1: touchdown on this defense. Two red zone targets, two end 106 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: zone targets in four games since he came back. Lions. 107 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: We know they play a lot of man coverage the 108 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:16,159 Speaker 1: third highest rate. It is a bit of a smaller 109 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 1: sample because he's missed a lot of time over the 110 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 1: last couple of seasons, but he has the highest targets 111 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 1: for run versus man since the start of last year, 112 00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 1: and last game that they played a heavy man coverage 113 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 1: team that was the Giants, he scored twice. And the 114 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:30,800 Speaker 1: lines have given up the second most touchdowns to wide 115 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 1: receivers in the NFL. So anything over plus two hundred, 116 00:05:33,400 --> 00:05:34,599 Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Christian Watson. 117 00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with amon Ro Saint Brown Monsters game 118 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 2: last week, him and Gibbs. I think they're gonna have 119 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 2: to lean on these guys again. Green Bay very zone 120 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 2: heavy team, including in the red zone. Third most zone 121 00:05:46,960 --> 00:05:48,880 Speaker 2: coverage in the red zone, and that's important because Green 122 00:05:48,920 --> 00:05:50,039 Speaker 2: Bay is not going to give up a ton of 123 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:52,919 Speaker 2: explosives because they tend to sit back and zone and 124 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 2: so you're gonna have to kind of move it up 125 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 2: and down the field methodically on them. But a Monro 126 00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 2: leads the Lions and targets first reads and it's tied 127 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 2: for the team lead in touchdowns in the red zone 128 00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:08,559 Speaker 2: against zone coverage. So you parway a Monra at even 129 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 2: money with Christian Watson at plus two ten brock Wright 130 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 2: plus three ten, you get twenty seven to one odds 131 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:18,960 Speaker 2: for those for Green Bay and Detroit. Next game up, 132 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:23,200 Speaker 2: we got the Kansas City Chiefs at the Dallas Cowboys. Kerner, 133 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:24,840 Speaker 2: Who do you like for Chief Cowboys? 134 00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 3: Yeah? I like Cream Hunt at plus one sixty five. 135 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:31,279 Speaker 3: I was actually shocked to see these odds. You know, 136 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:36,479 Speaker 3: I'm projecting them closer to even money here, and he's 137 00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 3: just coming off a thirty carra game. How to touchdown. 138 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:42,200 Speaker 3: He's their goal linebacker. I don't care if Isaiah Pacheco's out, 139 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:44,000 Speaker 3: you know he's probably going to come back to the 140 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:46,599 Speaker 3: limited role. They brought back their former first round pick, 141 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:50,320 Speaker 3: Clyde Edwards Hilaire. They scooped up Damian Pierce, so clearly, 142 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 3: you know they're not confident in their current running back room, 143 00:06:53,400 --> 00:06:55,880 Speaker 3: but they are confident Cream Hunt. So give me a 144 00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:57,840 Speaker 3: Hunt here at plus one sixty five. 145 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:01,719 Speaker 2: Joe Cowboys Chiefs. Who do you like? 146 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm just gonna go with the receiving machine George 147 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 1: Pickens eighteen targets and two touchdowns over the last two games, 148 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 1: and he easily leads the Cowboys with fifteen end zone 149 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:14,520 Speaker 1: targets this year. One thing I really like, too, is 150 00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:16,680 Speaker 1: that the Chiefs their bottom ten in defensive DV A 151 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 1: way versus the deep ball, and that's picking specialty. He's 152 00:07:19,400 --> 00:07:22,960 Speaker 1: seventeen deep targets this year. That's fifth overall in the NFL. 153 00:07:23,360 --> 00:07:26,000 Speaker 1: And I'm not really worried now about Ceedee Lamb coming 154 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 1: back and swallowing up a lot of those targets because 155 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 1: in the four or five games since Lamb has returned, 156 00:07:31,000 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 1: he's gotten at least nine targets. So I think in 157 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:35,120 Speaker 1: this game, this is a type of matchup where if 158 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 1: he's matched up with Trent McDuffie, it's one of those 159 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 1: times where he could win one on one on the 160 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 1: outside against that type of high quality cornerback. So I'm 161 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:45,000 Speaker 1: gonna take George Pickens. He's around plus one to fifty. 162 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:49,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, he can win against anybody at this point. I'm 163 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 2: gonna go with Markith Brown at plus four fifty. And 164 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:56,320 Speaker 2: the reason I like this is because he's been their 165 00:07:56,360 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 2: third receiver ever since Rashid Rice came back a lot 166 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 2: with Worthy. But Noah Gray may potentially miss this one, 167 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 2: so the Chiefs may have to go to more eleven personnel, 168 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 2: more three to four wide receiver sets in place of 169 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 2: Noah Gray. So with that that would likely lead to 170 00:08:14,840 --> 00:08:17,400 Speaker 2: the biggest increase for Marquis Brown, and he has been 171 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 2: great in terms of being a touchdown score, especially for 172 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:23,760 Speaker 2: you know, considering his size and the type of targets 173 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:26,440 Speaker 2: he gets. So you know, we know Patrick Mahomes still 174 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 2: wants to go deep. This is a defense that tends 175 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 2: to play some zone coverage. Markus Brown has beat zone 176 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 2: coverage four touchdowns numerous times this year. He's tied with 177 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 2: a team lead with four on the year, and that's 178 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 2: in fewer snaps than most of their other receivers. So 179 00:08:42,240 --> 00:08:44,520 Speaker 2: give me some Marquis Brown at plus four fifty. I 180 00:08:44,559 --> 00:08:47,840 Speaker 2: think you could see an uptick here. Parway Brown with 181 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:50,080 Speaker 2: Pickings at plus one fifty and Hunt at plus one 182 00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:52,880 Speaker 2: sixty five, you get twenty eight to one for the 183 00:08:53,000 --> 00:08:57,400 Speaker 2: anytime touchdown three leg Parway, Poor Chiefs Cowboys. Next up, 184 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:02,079 Speaker 2: we got Bengals Ravens Kerner. This is a really interesting one. 185 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:05,000 Speaker 2: Looks like might get some Joe Burrow here. Who do 186 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 2: you like for Bengals Ravens. 187 00:09:08,240 --> 00:09:11,599 Speaker 3: I like Mike Kasiki here at plus three seventy. He 188 00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:14,560 Speaker 3: returned to action last week and played a lot more 189 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:17,360 Speaker 3: with Jamar Chase out. He had a sixty seven percent 190 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 3: route turn rate seventy four percent from the slot, so 191 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:22,840 Speaker 3: he was essentially acting, as you know, their third receiver, 192 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:26,320 Speaker 3: and Chase is back this week, but t Higgins is out, 193 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:28,760 Speaker 3: so I think we're going to see similar usage from Gasiki. 194 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,079 Speaker 3: And he has no touchdowns on there. He missed a 195 00:09:31,120 --> 00:09:34,319 Speaker 3: handful of games. You know, should get a boost with 196 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:36,240 Speaker 3: Joe Burrow coming back, So I think it's a good 197 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:39,400 Speaker 3: time to buy along Gasiki at plus three seventy. 198 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 2: Jolly begos Ravens. 199 00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 3: Do you like? 200 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 1: I say likely? Anytime you're looking at touchdown props versus 201 00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:48,800 Speaker 1: the Bengals, the conversation I think has to start with 202 00:09:48,960 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 1: the opposing tight ends, because the Bengals have allowed the 203 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:53,960 Speaker 1: most touchdowns to the position. A tight end has scored 204 00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,840 Speaker 1: in five of their last six games. Normally that would 205 00:09:56,880 --> 00:09:58,959 Speaker 1: lead to Mark Andrews. He's around plus one to ten, 206 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:01,079 Speaker 1: so they are aware of that fact. So I think 207 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:03,440 Speaker 1: we take the tight end too. Isaiah Likely. He has 208 00:10:03,480 --> 00:10:05,920 Speaker 1: scored at least five touchdowns in each of the last 209 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:09,000 Speaker 1: two seasons through eight games. Been a little bit muddled 210 00:10:09,000 --> 00:10:11,559 Speaker 1: coming back from injury. Lamar miss in some time. He's 211 00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 1: still running the third most routes on the team, so 212 00:10:13,480 --> 00:10:15,520 Speaker 1: I think this is a matchup where he gets his 213 00:10:15,559 --> 00:10:16,600 Speaker 1: first touchdown of the year. 214 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 2: I'm gonna roll my guy, Mitchell Tinsley's professional touchdown score. 215 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 2: That's all he does is score touchdowns. Still saw over 216 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 2: seventy percent of the routes last week. Now Higgins did 217 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 2: go down, so that might drop a little if Chase, 218 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:32,720 Speaker 2: you know, stays healthy and Josebash is the number two. 219 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:35,520 Speaker 2: But where Tinsley is going to be used in the 220 00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:37,719 Speaker 2: red zone and we really saw Noah Fan take the 221 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:41,440 Speaker 2: biggest hit with Gaseki bumping up too, so it could 222 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,439 Speaker 2: be you know, Tinsley Gseki with the with the other 223 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:47,440 Speaker 2: guys in the red zone. So I think Tinsley's still 224 00:10:47,559 --> 00:10:50,960 Speaker 2: under priced yet again at plus four sixty. This guy 225 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 2: is going to catch touchdowns. It's just what he does. 226 00:10:54,280 --> 00:10:58,880 Speaker 2: Mike Gaziki, Isaiah Likely, Mitchell Tinsley partway those together seventy 227 00:10:59,200 --> 00:11:05,400 Speaker 2: five to love that all right? What Friday Bears Eagles Turner? 228 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:07,040 Speaker 2: Who you looking at? 229 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 3: I gotta go with my guy. Luthor Burden the third 230 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:12,200 Speaker 3: here at plus five hundred. I love this price, but 231 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 3: he is officially passed up. Alamide's a kias now as 232 00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 3: a clear number three wide receiver in this offense, you 233 00:11:18,360 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 3: could probably consider him number two receiver, I think, but 234 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 3: another sixty percent plus rats run rate saw five targets, 235 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 3: three catches four to six yards, also saw a rush 236 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:31,880 Speaker 3: for fifteen yards. He has multiple different ways to score, 237 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:35,200 Speaker 3: so you know he's still you know, DJ Moore roma 238 00:11:35,240 --> 00:11:38,080 Speaker 3: Dune Day injury away from his true upside. But in 239 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:40,600 Speaker 3: this role, I'm projecting him to be sort of like 240 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:44,960 Speaker 3: JSN his rookie season, where he's gonna have some decent games. 241 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:47,079 Speaker 3: But still, you know, he's like the number three target 242 00:11:47,080 --> 00:11:50,360 Speaker 3: in this offense. So love getting him, you know, at 243 00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:52,880 Speaker 3: this cheap price while we can so give me Burden 244 00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:54,200 Speaker 3: the third at plus five hundred. 245 00:11:56,320 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 2: Joe we Liken Eagles Bears another tye. 246 00:12:00,400 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 1: I'm going Dallas Goddard. He's around two to one Bears. Obviously, 247 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 1: they're playing a lot of man coverage around a top 248 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:08,840 Speaker 1: ten rate. They've allowed five touchdowns and tight ends this year. 249 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:10,600 Speaker 1: Three of those have been giving up over the last 250 00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:13,240 Speaker 1: five games, so they're twenty second now in defense of 251 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:16,360 Speaker 1: dvo Way versus tight ends, and Goddard actually leads the 252 00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:19,480 Speaker 1: Eagles with six touchdowns versus man coverage this year second 253 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:22,040 Speaker 1: in the NFL behind Devonte Adams for what that's worth. 254 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:25,720 Speaker 1: The other thing to the Bears linebacker corps was completely 255 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:28,400 Speaker 1: gone last week, which is part of the reason why 256 00:12:28,520 --> 00:12:31,280 Speaker 1: a lot of people were targeting Steelers tight ends. I 257 00:12:31,320 --> 00:12:33,360 Speaker 1: can't imagine they're all coming back this week, just on 258 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:37,240 Speaker 1: a short week. Plus, Jalen Johnson, the cornerback for the Bears, 259 00:12:37,280 --> 00:12:39,760 Speaker 1: if he's activated, that could probably see where he might 260 00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 1: be shadowing AJ Brown as well. So I think Dallas Goddard, 261 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:45,079 Speaker 1: if we're betting a passing touchdown for the Eagles, that's 262 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:45,640 Speaker 1: where we look. 263 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 2: I'm gonna roll with AJ Brown. Actually, I like both 264 00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 2: of them because the thing about Jaalen Johnson, if he 265 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 2: shadows AJ Brown, that's still single coverage. Jalen Hurts is 266 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:56,680 Speaker 2: going to attack single coverage. He's a guy that's not 267 00:12:56,720 --> 00:12:59,040 Speaker 2: gonna attack when he sees like, you know, zone defenders 268 00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:01,680 Speaker 2: floating around. So I don't really mind that, you know, 269 00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 2: I do think, God it's a great one as well, because, yeah, 270 00:13:03,840 --> 00:13:06,840 Speaker 2: those six touchdowns. AJ Brown's known to just rip up 271 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:10,280 Speaker 2: man coverage as well. So let's go with aj here 272 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:13,200 Speaker 2: in the parway along with Goddard and Luther Burden. The 273 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:17,120 Speaker 2: third you get forty four to one with those three 274 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:21,720 Speaker 2: four Eagles and Bears. All right, we'll get into Sunday 275 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:24,600 Speaker 2: Slate in the second, but just want to remind everybody 276 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 2: that it's that time of year. 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Jill did as well at plus 294 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 3: plus five fifty, so he's not shocked to see his 295 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:29,360 Speaker 3: odds drop quite a bit here. But I think he's 296 00:14:29,360 --> 00:14:32,120 Speaker 3: still worth it at plus three hundred. And you know, 297 00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 3: leading up to his touchdown catch, he had so many 298 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 3: plays where he just missed. He was either on the 299 00:14:38,640 --> 00:14:40,920 Speaker 3: wrong page with Davis Bills or he was like, I 300 00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 3: don't know whose fault it was, but he was so close. 301 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:44,960 Speaker 3: And it's just a reminder that, you know, not every 302 00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:47,320 Speaker 3: rookie wide receiver is gonna be up there ceiling right away. 303 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 3: There's gonna be some growing pains, but they two they 304 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 3: typically get better, you know, in the second half of 305 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 3: the season. I've noticed that with Higgins his usage rates 306 00:14:55,680 --> 00:14:56,160 Speaker 3: way up. 307 00:14:57,120 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 1: Last week. 308 00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:00,479 Speaker 3: He had a seventy percent route turn rate, so he's 309 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 3: effectively their number two wide receiver now across Fromnico Collins. 310 00:15:03,560 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 3: So I still like buying in on Higgins here at 311 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 3: plus three hundred. And then on the other side, I 312 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 3: just got to go with my guy Alec Pierce at 313 00:15:10,720 --> 00:15:14,120 Speaker 3: plus two ninety. This is obviously a tougher matchup against 314 00:15:14,160 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 3: the Texan secondary. But Alec Pierce can score on anybody 315 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 3: because he's, you know, an elite downfield threat. So give 316 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 3: me Alec Pierce at plus two ninety. 317 00:15:25,480 --> 00:15:28,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, man, Alec Pierce, Like I feel like he's been 318 00:15:28,080 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 2: undervalued in the entire market all year long. So keep 319 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:36,640 Speaker 2: it going. Niners going to Cleveland. Browns always played good 320 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:38,640 Speaker 2: defense at home. Joe, who do you like in this one? 321 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with my guys, the same Niners player 322 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:43,840 Speaker 1: I've taken three of the last four weeks. I'm gonna 323 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 1: take him again, Juwan Jennings. He's around three to one 324 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 1: as of Tuesday afternoon, so four touchdowns this year. Leads 325 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 1: the Niners in red zone targets and end zone targets. 326 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:57,360 Speaker 1: Brock perty back at quarterback, but as long as he's 327 00:15:57,400 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 1: on track and not throwing interceptions, again, that's a big if. 328 00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 1: I'm feeling pretty good because the Browns they play man 329 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 1: coverage at the fourth highest rate and the second highest 330 00:16:06,120 --> 00:16:08,200 Speaker 1: rate of single high safety, and Jennings just leads the 331 00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 1: Niners by a mile in target chair versus those defenses. 332 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 1: So I'll take him at plus three hundred. On the 333 00:16:14,520 --> 00:16:18,800 Speaker 1: brown side, it gets a little tricky here. I think 334 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Harrold Fan and Junior. Though he's 335 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 1: around plus four hundred. He played a season high ninety 336 00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 1: percent of snaps in Week twelve led the Browns and 337 00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:28,640 Speaker 1: targets he ran. Last week we went with David Nijoku. 338 00:16:28,680 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 1: He ran over double the routes of David Djoku last week. 339 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:34,560 Speaker 1: And I think the Browns offense is just a little 340 00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 1: bit undervalue because of the Shooter Sanders limitations as a quarterback. 341 00:16:39,160 --> 00:16:41,240 Speaker 1: They kind of used kid gloves on him last week. 342 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:43,920 Speaker 1: I think everything was very deliberate, nothing was really off 343 00:16:43,960 --> 00:16:46,960 Speaker 1: script except for that long long pass to Isaiah Bond. 344 00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 1: So I think with another week of practice, Fan and 345 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 1: should see more looks against the Niners defense that is 346 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:54,280 Speaker 1: bottom ten and targets, catches and yards the tight ends 347 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:57,120 Speaker 1: with seven touchdowns allowed. Now, Raybond, I want to ask you, 348 00:16:57,200 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: last week we bet on Raiders defense of special teams 349 00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:02,560 Speaker 1: touchdown thinking of how we could fade Shador Sanders at 350 00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:05,440 Speaker 1: his first official start. Do you think the Niners defensive 351 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 1: special teams has some value? It's around five to one 352 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 1: this week against the Browns. 353 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 2: I actually thought Shaudor wasn't as bad as I thought 354 00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:15,640 Speaker 2: he would be. The Niners defenses. I mean, they played 355 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 2: well on Monday Night, but they can be bad. I 356 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:20,040 Speaker 2: almost wanted to just just target the rate. Whoever's playing 357 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 2: the Raiders is probably the move. I mean, they can 358 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:25,160 Speaker 2: fire their offensive coordinator it. I don't know what's going 359 00:17:25,160 --> 00:17:28,520 Speaker 2: on there, so uh yeah, I mean it could. It's 360 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:31,119 Speaker 2: not a five to one is pretty is pretty juiced up. 361 00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:33,920 Speaker 2: I think you gotta target somebody else, maybe into those 362 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 2: odds drop. But because I think we were getting what 363 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:38,080 Speaker 2: like longer than that last week. 364 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:41,160 Speaker 1: It was around plus eight hundred last week with the Raiders, 365 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 1: so uh yeah, now we. 366 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:44,199 Speaker 2: Did and we didn't get one in. It's gone. It's 367 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:46,440 Speaker 2: gone down for the Niners. Who I mean, who, who's 368 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:51,480 Speaker 2: even on their defense? Yeah, I mean they'll probably watch, 369 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 2: they'll probably do it, but yeah, I feel like I 370 00:17:53,680 --> 00:17:57,320 Speaker 2: liked it last week. More Cardinals at Bucks. It's still 371 00:17:57,320 --> 00:17:59,560 Speaker 2: some question as to, you know, what's going on with 372 00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:02,840 Speaker 2: Baker in this Bucks offense. I'm gonna go with Trey 373 00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 2: McBride for the Cardinals, though I didn't get in the 374 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:07,479 Speaker 2: end zone last week, but with Jakobe Wes said he's 375 00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:11,080 Speaker 2: still scoring all but one game. This Bucks team is 376 00:18:11,119 --> 00:18:14,679 Speaker 2: going to blitz and kind of leave guys, you know, 377 00:18:15,320 --> 00:18:17,560 Speaker 2: vacate zones in the middle of the field. We saw 378 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:21,239 Speaker 2: Kobe Parkinson take advantage last week. I think McBride's get 379 00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 2: in the end zone plus one twenty five for him 380 00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:27,440 Speaker 2: and for the Bucks. Tes Johnson is four to one. 381 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:30,199 Speaker 2: Now again, you know there's question marks about you know, 382 00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:34,399 Speaker 2: quarterback situation and whatnot, But Tess Johnson was still an 383 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 2: eighty five percent routes player last week, and that's with 384 00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:40,479 Speaker 2: Godwin coming back. Godwin was only at half that and 385 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:43,360 Speaker 2: Shepherd had his normal role in the slot. So at 386 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:45,840 Speaker 2: this point, I don't know if Tess Johnson's gonna be 387 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:47,760 Speaker 2: knocked out of that top three. I mean, he's been 388 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:50,280 Speaker 2: playing so well. They just love to get him the ball. 389 00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 2: And that's gonna be even more true if if Bigger 390 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:55,159 Speaker 2: Mayfield is out for an extended period of time. So 391 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:58,880 Speaker 2: I think Tess Johnson is undervalued here at fourid to one, 392 00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:03,680 Speaker 2: where Godwin's at plus two fifty. Those should probably be flipped. 393 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 2: So give me Tz at four to one. Saints going 394 00:19:07,800 --> 00:19:11,879 Speaker 2: to Miami to base the Dolphins Kerner who are looking at. 395 00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:14,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, so this game I'm I have to go two 396 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:18,920 Speaker 3: long shots. So on the Saint side, I think, as 397 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:22,560 Speaker 3: you point out Raybond, Devin Neil is probably offering value 398 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,680 Speaker 3: anything over like two to one. I think he's gonna 399 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:28,440 Speaker 3: be the clear lead back with Alvin Kamara out. Kind 400 00:19:28,440 --> 00:19:30,640 Speaker 3: of reminds me of DeAndre Swift, where he's a really 401 00:19:30,680 --> 00:19:33,040 Speaker 3: good pass catching back as well. But I'm gonna go 402 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:36,000 Speaker 3: with Adric Estime here for my pick at twelve to 403 00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:39,199 Speaker 3: one because I think, you know, they probably have no 404 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:41,480 Speaker 3: choice but to elevate him and play him here with 405 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:44,480 Speaker 3: you know, Kamara out, and Estime does kind of profile 406 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,800 Speaker 3: as kind of a short yardage goal line type back, 407 00:19:46,840 --> 00:19:49,159 Speaker 3: so if they do get in the red zone, I 408 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,720 Speaker 3: know we're gonna have Taysom Hill out there in those Shenanigans, 409 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:54,600 Speaker 3: but there's a chance they let Estimate get a crack 410 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 3: if they get at the goal line. So I think 411 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:58,840 Speaker 3: at twelve to one he's worth it. I'm only projecting 412 00:19:58,880 --> 00:20:00,440 Speaker 3: him a few carries and I'm getting as a fair 413 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 3: price closer at nine to one, so I like him here. 414 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:06,639 Speaker 3: And then on the other side, I'm gonna go Cedric 415 00:20:06,640 --> 00:20:09,800 Speaker 3: Wilson at fourteen to one in their last game, he 416 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:12,760 Speaker 3: overtook Nick westbrook A Kina as the number three wide 417 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:16,520 Speaker 3: receiver and just for whatever reason, it just hasn't worked 418 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 3: for NWI in this offense. You know, he was a 419 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 3: touchdown machine on the Titans just a year ago, but 420 00:20:22,240 --> 00:20:24,480 Speaker 3: just isn't clicking with him on the Dolphins. So they 421 00:20:24,600 --> 00:20:28,120 Speaker 3: let Cedric Wilson take some away of some of his snaps. 422 00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:31,200 Speaker 3: So you know, Wilson's not like a serious threat to score, 423 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,720 Speaker 3: but he has scored a touchdown for the last five seasons. 424 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:36,879 Speaker 3: So if he's out there running routes and he's fourteen 425 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:38,440 Speaker 3: to one, I think he's worth a flyer here. 426 00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:42,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, he definitely. I mean Nick, Nick Westburriakina has done nothing. 427 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,520 Speaker 2: He doesn't even he's a Cardio king. Talk about Cardio Kings. 428 00:20:45,760 --> 00:20:48,080 Speaker 2: Has this guy had a catch recently? Target recently? 429 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:52,440 Speaker 3: I was gonna say, it just doesn't get targeted running 430 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 3: clear out routes. 431 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 2: Next up, we got the Falcons going to the Jets. 432 00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:03,960 Speaker 2: I mean Saints Dolphins, Falcons Jets back to back. Jill, 433 00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:04,680 Speaker 2: Who do you like here? 434 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,399 Speaker 1: Well, normally I only take one player on each side, 435 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:10,360 Speaker 1: but I love the odds for both of these guys 436 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:13,040 Speaker 1: that Donna Mitchell is plus seven fifty and John Mitchi 437 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,199 Speaker 1: is eight to one. So I'm gonna probably put a 438 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,320 Speaker 1: half unit on both of those guys this week. I mean, 439 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:21,040 Speaker 1: Metchi has caught two touchdowns in three games with the Jets, 440 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,720 Speaker 1: He had ten targets over the last two weeks, leads 441 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:26,160 Speaker 1: the team in red zone targets. So Mechi at eight 442 00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,080 Speaker 1: to one for me is just a huge value. And 443 00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:31,199 Speaker 1: then of course our guy don A Mitchell, who clearly 444 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:33,080 Speaker 1: they're trying to get him the ball in space. He 445 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:35,640 Speaker 1: led the team in targets in both of those each 446 00:21:35,640 --> 00:21:38,120 Speaker 1: of the last two games. And one of the things 447 00:21:38,119 --> 00:21:40,159 Speaker 1: that we like to do against this Falcons defense, we 448 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:42,520 Speaker 1: like to target the wide receiver who does really well 449 00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:44,800 Speaker 1: against single high safety because they played at the highest 450 00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 1: rate in the NFL the Ale Pierce move as Kerner 451 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 1: used to do so, and that's Mitchell who leads the 452 00:21:50,600 --> 00:21:53,639 Speaker 1: Jets and targets run against both of those defenses and 453 00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:57,520 Speaker 1: zone defense. So also a little encouraging thing about Mitchell 454 00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:59,399 Speaker 1: that I thought about this because the last time that 455 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 1: he faced a heavy team that plays a lot of 456 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:03,560 Speaker 1: single high safety and a lot of his own was 457 00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:05,720 Speaker 1: against the Rams. And that was the game where he 458 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 1: was supposed to score that friggin touchdown and then dropped 459 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:11,360 Speaker 1: it at the goal line. So I'm gonna take both 460 00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:14,439 Speaker 1: the Dona Mitchell at plus seven fifty and John Metchia 461 00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:17,119 Speaker 1: at eight to one. On the falcon side, it's pretty boring. 462 00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:19,679 Speaker 1: I'm just gonna take Kyle Pitts. He's plus two sixty. 463 00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:21,760 Speaker 1: This will be the week where he gets like one target. 464 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:23,400 Speaker 1: But the week that we don't take him is when 465 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,880 Speaker 1: he goes off. But again playing man at top five 466 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,040 Speaker 1: right now by the Jets, he has a higher target 467 00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:31,720 Speaker 1: chair versus man defense. Drake London could be out again. 468 00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 1: They've allowed seven touchdowns of tight ends. So unless you 469 00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:37,120 Speaker 1: want to take like Tyler Als year around like plus 470 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:40,119 Speaker 1: one eighty, I'll take Kyle Pits again at plus two sixty. Now, 471 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:42,320 Speaker 1: especially with Kirk Cousins a quarterback, I think it's just 472 00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:44,840 Speaker 1: a little bit more upside from a passing standpoint. As 473 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:46,160 Speaker 1: long as he doesn't turn it over. 474 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:51,160 Speaker 2: You're brave man, Kyle Pitts. Probably, I know, I mean, 475 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:54,320 Speaker 2: who man, this guy. It's got to happen sometime. I 476 00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:58,639 Speaker 2: think I think I think next time we got Jags 477 00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:02,359 Speaker 2: at Titans. I'm gonna roll Brenton Strange on the Jags 478 00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:06,919 Speaker 2: plus four twenty five. Returned last week and had a 479 00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:10,600 Speaker 2: pretty good game. Now, the thing is he hasn't seen 480 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 2: a ton of red zone work to date for the Jags, 481 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,240 Speaker 2: but I think he's clearly their best tight end. Hunter 482 00:23:16,320 --> 00:23:18,640 Speaker 2: Long still a little bit banged up, so we'll see 483 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:20,760 Speaker 2: about him, but I think Strange is gonna start to 484 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:22,960 Speaker 2: see more work in the red zone. He's just their 485 00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:25,919 Speaker 2: number one tight end sixty eight percent route rate in 486 00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:31,240 Speaker 2: his return, and this Titan defense is shaky. And if 487 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,680 Speaker 2: you look at the Jaguars odds, I mean Brian Thomas, 488 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,120 Speaker 2: we don't know if he's going to be back yet. 489 00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:40,080 Speaker 2: Parker Washington's just scoring every game, so he's probably starting 490 00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 2: to get up there and like a little bit of overvalued. 491 00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:46,959 Speaker 2: And then you know the running backs, because Touton had 492 00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,320 Speaker 2: that big game a couple of games ago, both of 493 00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,080 Speaker 2: the running backs are still kind of overpriced, and we 494 00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,800 Speaker 2: know running backs score against the Titans. So I'm looking 495 00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:56,920 Speaker 2: at Strange here. He's the one guy that's gonna get 496 00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:59,960 Speaker 2: a ton of work with that first team offense, that 497 00:24:00,040 --> 00:24:03,080 Speaker 2: whose eyes don't really reflect his true touchdown odds, So 498 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 2: give me Brenton Strange at plus four twenty five. And 499 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:08,879 Speaker 2: then for the Titans, gotta go with cam Ward at 500 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 2: ten to one. And Ward's been scrambling a lot more lately. 501 00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,720 Speaker 2: Eight scrambles over the past two games, not five in 502 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:18,680 Speaker 2: his last game for thirty one yards and a touchdown, 503 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 2: So that might be something that we see continues. The 504 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:24,439 Speaker 2: Jaguar's we giving up three touchdowns to opposing quarterback, all right, 505 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:26,000 Speaker 2: so see if cam Ward can keep it going again 506 00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,960 Speaker 2: for the Titans, scrambling a lot more recently. Loved those 507 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,840 Speaker 2: odds at ten to one. Next up, we got the 508 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:36,840 Speaker 2: Minnesota Vikings at the Seaheato Seahawks kerner Man, his Vikings 509 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:38,640 Speaker 2: offense has really gotten downhill. 510 00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:42,160 Speaker 3: Who you like in this game, Well, I'm gonna stick 511 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:44,600 Speaker 3: with who Jill gave out last week. I thought it 512 00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:46,919 Speaker 3: was a great play. I'm gonna go with Josh Oliver 513 00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:50,119 Speaker 3: at thirteen to one. Here. Maybe you like how I 514 00:24:50,200 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 3: loosen the jar for dak with Yeah, for Jill with Jill, 515 00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:57,800 Speaker 3: loosen the jar for me with Josh Oliver. But last 516 00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:00,800 Speaker 3: week he saw a season high thirty two routes run rate, 517 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:02,480 Speaker 3: so that was a great time to be on his 518 00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:07,359 Speaker 3: touchdown market. You know, he's just a good blocking tight end, 519 00:25:07,480 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 3: and you know the Vikings seem to want to use 520 00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 3: more heavy personnel lean on the run and you know 521 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 3: high JJ McCarthy, so I could see them sticking with 522 00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:18,439 Speaker 3: that this week with Max Brosmer starting. I thought he 523 00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:20,800 Speaker 3: was sneaky good in preseason. He's gonna I think he's 524 00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:23,760 Speaker 3: going to be an easy upgrade over JJ McCarthy. I 525 00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:26,000 Speaker 3: don't know who wouldn't be at this point. So I 526 00:25:26,040 --> 00:25:29,399 Speaker 3: think that he could surprise and the Vikings could score 527 00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:32,680 Speaker 3: a few touchdowns here, increasing the chances a fringe guy 528 00:25:32,680 --> 00:25:36,199 Speaker 3: like Oliver gets one. So he's sticking out to me 529 00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:39,040 Speaker 3: as the best value at thirteen to one, and I'm 530 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:41,040 Speaker 3: going to go with the tight end on the other side. 531 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:43,399 Speaker 3: He was my favorite play last week. He's my favorite 532 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 3: play this week. Aj Barner at plus two seventy five, 533 00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:50,040 Speaker 3: same reason as last week. He's already you know, the lead, 534 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,200 Speaker 3: the clear lead tight end in this offense, and he's 535 00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 3: their ball carry on the toush push. It doesn't mean 536 00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,720 Speaker 3: he's going to score every single week, but I think, 537 00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 3: you know, anything around plus two to fifty plus three 538 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:02,080 Speaker 3: hundred odds, he's gonna be worth it. So I'll stick 539 00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,119 Speaker 3: with aj Barner here as well. 540 00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:07,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, Barner, you know, tough week from last week, but 541 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:11,520 Speaker 2: great matchup for him everyone. I mean, they just love 542 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:13,920 Speaker 2: to use extra tight ends against the Vikings. So there's 543 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:15,800 Speaker 2: gonna be like I mean, he's gonna be out there, 544 00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:18,680 Speaker 2: Royal is gonna be out there, just gonna be I think, 545 00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:23,840 Speaker 2: a tight end show against the against the Vikings here. 546 00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:27,320 Speaker 2: All right. Next up, we got the Raiders and the 547 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:31,760 Speaker 2: Chargers divisional clash. Chargers coming off the long rest, Jill, 548 00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:32,800 Speaker 2: who do you like in this one? 549 00:26:32,960 --> 00:26:35,440 Speaker 1: All right, We're gonna start on the Chargers side. Keenan Allen. 550 00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,440 Speaker 1: He's around plus two to seventy five. Knowing the Raiders 551 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:40,520 Speaker 1: they play zone at the highest rate in the NFL. 552 00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 1: When they played in Week two, Quinton Johnson and Keenan 553 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,640 Speaker 1: Allen both scored on them. But Allen is actually he's 554 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,600 Speaker 1: the one who leads the Chargers in touchdowns versus his 555 00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:49,960 Speaker 1: own coverages this year and also has the highest target 556 00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:52,639 Speaker 1: chare So coming off that buy, I expect the Chargers 557 00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:55,240 Speaker 1: offense to get back on track. Allen should get another 558 00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,280 Speaker 1: touchdown against the Raiders. But on the Raiders side, it's 559 00:26:58,359 --> 00:26:59,800 Speaker 1: not a lot of upside, but the fact that we're 560 00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 1: gett brock Bowers at two to one. I gotta take 561 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:04,920 Speaker 1: them again here because just even in eight games, he 562 00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:07,440 Speaker 1: has seven ed zone targets twenty two targets just over 563 00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,760 Speaker 1: the last two games. Michael Meyer might be out again 564 00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:15,400 Speaker 1: this week after getting hurt ankle injury. Chargers they also 565 00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,160 Speaker 1: play zone at the fourth highest rate, at the second 566 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:21,080 Speaker 1: highest rate of too high safety, and Bowers naturally will 567 00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:23,360 Speaker 1: lead the Chargers and targets per un run against both 568 00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:25,520 Speaker 1: of those defenses. So the other thing too, is I 569 00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:27,479 Speaker 1: was very put off by I didn't want to bet 570 00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:29,920 Speaker 1: anybody like a Tyler Locket or a Dante Thornton because 571 00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:31,840 Speaker 1: the Chargers are very good at defending the deep ball. 572 00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:34,440 Speaker 1: So I think if the Raiders can score some passing touchdowns, 573 00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:36,520 Speaker 1: it's likely going to be in the short range, which 574 00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:39,000 Speaker 1: aids brock Bowers. So I'm gonna take brock Bowers and 575 00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:40,400 Speaker 1: Keenan Allen for that matchup. 576 00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,080 Speaker 2: I mean, they got the new offensive coordinator. I can't 577 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,880 Speaker 2: go anywhere but up. I mean, I was just head scratching, 578 00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:48,879 Speaker 2: even just not playing the rookies like it was. 579 00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:50,360 Speaker 3: I mean, it was going. 580 00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:53,680 Speaker 2: Bad and in Vegas. So see what happens there Bills 581 00:27:53,800 --> 00:27:58,440 Speaker 2: at Steelers. For the Steelers, I'm gonna go Kenny Gainwell 582 00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:02,320 Speaker 2: at plus two to fifteen. Run defense has been very shoddy, 583 00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:07,200 Speaker 2: and I think you know, with Pittsburgh playing born in 584 00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:10,000 Speaker 2: Gainwell and kind of a platoon. Now, you know, Gamelo's 585 00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:12,919 Speaker 2: starting to get more snaps again, even in the run games, 586 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,119 Speaker 2: thirty percent of the backfield carries last week. I know 587 00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:17,639 Speaker 2: Warren did come into that game banged up, but you know, 588 00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,720 Speaker 2: Gamela continues to make the most of his opportunities. So 589 00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:22,840 Speaker 2: I think we're gonna still see you know, like a 590 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:27,240 Speaker 2: sixty to forty seventy thirty split at worst. But game well, 591 00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:29,080 Speaker 2: in this game, you know, I think they're gonna be 592 00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:32,240 Speaker 2: extremely run heavy. You definitely want to target the Bills 593 00:28:32,440 --> 00:28:34,840 Speaker 2: on the ground. That's where that's where you win against them. 594 00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:36,480 Speaker 2: They've been one of the worst run ds in the league. 595 00:28:36,560 --> 00:28:38,000 Speaker 2: And then for the Bills, got to go with Josh 596 00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:42,080 Speaker 2: Allen at even money, still looking for that rushing touchdown record. 597 00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,760 Speaker 2: So a pretty simple cap there, just if they get 598 00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:46,800 Speaker 2: their round to go line, I think they try to. 599 00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:48,600 Speaker 2: I think josh Awn either tries to get it in 600 00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,480 Speaker 2: himself on a scramble or something, or if it's a 601 00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 2: design carry, I think it goes to him if he 602 00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:57,360 Speaker 2: can get there. So josh Allen even money, Kenny Gainwell 603 00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:01,800 Speaker 2: plus two fifteen. Next up at the Rams at the 604 00:29:01,840 --> 00:29:06,000 Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers. Panthers off that Monday night loss, Rams off 605 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,400 Speaker 2: that Sunday night win. Kerner. Who do you like in 606 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:09,000 Speaker 2: this one? 607 00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:13,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, so this one there's really no market for it yet, 608 00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:15,600 Speaker 3: So I'm gonna go with like two longer shot guys 609 00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:17,680 Speaker 3: I think will be offering value. And first up is 610 00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:21,160 Speaker 3: my guy b like Horum. You know, obviously he is 611 00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:26,360 Speaker 3: the clear backup to Kyron Williams right now, but this 612 00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:28,400 Speaker 3: is a game. You know the Rams could win easily 613 00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:30,960 Speaker 3: and someone like Horum could get more work in the 614 00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,760 Speaker 3: second half of the game. And yes, he was stuff 615 00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,160 Speaker 3: at the goalline what three straight times the other week, 616 00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:38,320 Speaker 3: but you know, doesn't mean he's not going to score 617 00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,960 Speaker 3: a touchdown ever again, So I like him hearing a 618 00:29:40,960 --> 00:29:43,720 Speaker 3: potential blowout and if if the Rams get a big 619 00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:46,320 Speaker 3: big in the in the first half, I would like 620 00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:50,280 Speaker 3: to look for like Ronnie Rivers last touchdown scorer. Sometimes 621 00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 3: you can get those at like fifty to one when 622 00:29:52,640 --> 00:29:54,600 Speaker 3: it looks likely you know they're gonna blow him out. 623 00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,720 Speaker 3: So that's that's another potential angle for this game. And 624 00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:01,479 Speaker 3: then on the Panthers side, Rico Daddle and tet are 625 00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:04,000 Speaker 3: the clear favorites to score for the Panthers. But I 626 00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:07,800 Speaker 3: love Mitchell Evans as a sneaky touchdown bet he's there, 627 00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,120 Speaker 3: you know, third string tight end, but they do use 628 00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:14,120 Speaker 3: all three tight ends quite a bit, and you know, 629 00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:16,720 Speaker 3: Evan specifically tends to get a lot more work once 630 00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:19,000 Speaker 3: they do get in the red zone. He has two 631 00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:22,200 Speaker 3: touchdowns on this season that botched first and goal play 632 00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:24,600 Speaker 3: on the one yard line was actually a target to 633 00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,840 Speaker 3: Mitchell Evans, So he's getting work out there. People. A 634 00:30:27,920 --> 00:30:29,640 Speaker 3: lot of people don't know who he is, but he's 635 00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,400 Speaker 3: He's a decent rookie in what's been like a really 636 00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:35,320 Speaker 3: really good tight end class. So I think he still overlooks. 637 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,800 Speaker 3: So I think Mitchell Evans on the Panthers side is 638 00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:39,240 Speaker 3: a solid, solid long shot. 639 00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:44,480 Speaker 2: Yeah. I like you know that Gitavian sanders Man, what 640 00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:46,760 Speaker 2: happened to him? Like it seems like you're playing time 641 00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:50,480 Speaker 2: just decreasing more and more. Yeah, and it really hasn't 642 00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,920 Speaker 2: been too productive. Right, let's finish it up with our 643 00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:56,040 Speaker 2: We're gonna do the two primetime games, but before that, 644 00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:59,560 Speaker 2: we'll get into our favorite Sunday Anytime Touchdown Partway presented 645 00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:06,560 Speaker 2: by DraftKings Kerner. Your favorite anytime touchdown from the Sunday daytime, 646 00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,920 Speaker 2: you know, early and late window, not the Sunday night football, 647 00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:12,040 Speaker 2: but the early and late slates. Do you like? 648 00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:14,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna stick with aj Barner here around you know, 649 00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:18,440 Speaker 3: plus two seventy, So I'm doubling down on this week again. 650 00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:21,680 Speaker 3: He can get there the pass as a normal tight 651 00:31:21,800 --> 00:31:24,720 Speaker 3: end or a ball carrier in their tush push play, 652 00:31:24,800 --> 00:31:26,840 Speaker 3: so he has multiple paths to get there as a 653 00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:29,280 Speaker 3: tight end, so I still like him at plus two seventy. 654 00:31:31,400 --> 00:31:34,280 Speaker 1: Jim, I'm gonna go with brock Bauers. The last time 655 00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:36,280 Speaker 1: that these two teams played in Week two, he wasn't 656 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,600 Speaker 1: healthy and you could clearly see it. I think he's 657 00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,080 Speaker 1: back now and have anything over plus two hundred. I 658 00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:41,680 Speaker 1: love him there. 659 00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:46,080 Speaker 2: I'm gonna roll Kobe Parkinson. This guy continues to be 660 00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:50,160 Speaker 2: underpriced in the market. Is the Rams lead tight end. 661 00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:52,880 Speaker 2: Now Tyer Higbee out, and because you know Parkinson and 662 00:31:52,920 --> 00:31:56,000 Speaker 2: Higbee were splitting the early down reps, Parkinson kind of 663 00:31:56,040 --> 00:31:58,920 Speaker 2: has the most to gain in terms of, you know usage. 664 00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:03,000 Speaker 2: HEAs ferguson a lot of third down reps. So I 665 00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,760 Speaker 2: think that's why he's still been a little shaky in 666 00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:08,360 Speaker 2: the touchdown market. Just hasn't been seeing enough work in 667 00:32:08,400 --> 00:32:10,200 Speaker 2: the red zone yet. But Parkinson, we saw him score 668 00:32:10,280 --> 00:32:13,480 Speaker 2: yet again. He'll be that we'd guy. I like his 669 00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:15,920 Speaker 2: match up against the Panthers, who tend to play a 670 00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:19,520 Speaker 2: lot of zone coverage, which is great for tight ends. 671 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:23,680 Speaker 2: So you're parway AJ Barner, Brock Bowers and Kobe Parkinson. 672 00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:25,600 Speaker 2: What is it National tight End Day? We've got three 673 00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:29,640 Speaker 2: tight ends here, thirty to one. If you parlay those three, 674 00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:33,960 Speaker 2: that was our favorite anytime touchdown Parway presented by DraftKings 675 00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:38,000 Speaker 2: for Week thirteen, the Sunday daytime slate. All right, let's 676 00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,520 Speaker 2: get to Sunday night football. So we got the Denver 677 00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:48,960 Speaker 2: Broncos going to Washington to face the Commanders. Kerner Broncos 678 00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:52,760 Speaker 2: put JK. Dobbins on IR so they'll be with Harvey again. 679 00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,000 Speaker 2: Weed in the way you're looking at him or somebody 680 00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:55,880 Speaker 2: else in this one. 681 00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,479 Speaker 3: No, I'm looking at A. J. Harvey. And again we 682 00:32:59,520 --> 00:33:03,400 Speaker 3: saw their first game without JK. Dobbins, Harvey really operate 683 00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:06,920 Speaker 3: as the clear lead back. Sean Payton didn't pull any 684 00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:10,080 Speaker 3: of his typical shenanigans. He really leaned on Harvey. And 685 00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 3: they you know, they beat the Chiefs in their week 686 00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:16,280 Speaker 3: eleven game, and they they've been on by and you know, 687 00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:19,840 Speaker 3: rookies typically, you know, improved after the bye week. So 688 00:33:20,000 --> 00:33:24,040 Speaker 3: I like Harvey here. And Jelian McLaughlin's got the Vulture score, 689 00:33:24,120 --> 00:33:26,480 Speaker 3: but that was just more of circumstance. He just happened 690 00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:29,360 Speaker 3: to be out there when they did score that touchdown. 691 00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:32,080 Speaker 3: So if you look at the underlying usage, R J. 692 00:33:32,200 --> 00:33:34,760 Speaker 3: Harvey was operating as the clear lead back. He can 693 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,360 Speaker 3: score via the run or pass. So I like him here. 694 00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:41,760 Speaker 2: Joe, who do you like in Broncos Commanders? 695 00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:44,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna stick with the Bronco myself. But it's 696 00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:48,160 Speaker 1: gonna be Troy Franklin eight end zone targets already and 697 00:33:49,160 --> 00:33:50,920 Speaker 1: leads a team in red zone targets as well. You 698 00:33:50,920 --> 00:33:53,240 Speaker 1: would think that would be Courtland Sutton's role. No, it's 699 00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:56,120 Speaker 1: Troy Franklin in this offense and playing against the team 700 00:33:56,120 --> 00:33:57,480 Speaker 1: and that plays a lot of man coverage and he 701 00:33:57,560 --> 00:33:59,600 Speaker 1: leads the team in targets per Broa run. So if 702 00:33:59,600 --> 00:34:01,560 Speaker 1: it's not, don't fix it. I'm gonna keep going with 703 00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:02,240 Speaker 1: Troy Franklin. 704 00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:06,120 Speaker 2: I'm gonna roll with Bronco too. Just don't really have 705 00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,560 Speaker 2: confidence in the Commanders, even at home against his Bronco 706 00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:11,480 Speaker 2: d I'm gonna go with Pat Bryan at plus a 707 00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,480 Speaker 2: little over plus four hundred, and he's just been seeing 708 00:34:14,480 --> 00:34:17,840 Speaker 2: a big uptick in his usage lately. Even with Marvin 709 00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:20,000 Speaker 2: Mims back, it's been more like a you know, two 710 00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,799 Speaker 2: to one split in favor of of Brian as of way. 711 00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:26,000 Speaker 2: And now you know, coming off the you know, long rest, 712 00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:31,240 Speaker 2: and it's gonna be I think another kind of bump 713 00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:33,560 Speaker 2: up for the rookie, you know, you like like Harvey 714 00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,279 Speaker 2: in this spot, like like Brian as well. I think 715 00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,480 Speaker 2: Sean Payton always wants to get his rookies involved. He 716 00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:41,400 Speaker 2: likes to get a ton of guys involved, period. But 717 00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:43,120 Speaker 2: so you got to kind of just roll with the 718 00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,200 Speaker 2: guys who are trending up. Franklin's been doing it all 719 00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:48,279 Speaker 2: year now, He's been trending up. I think Brian is 720 00:34:48,400 --> 00:34:50,560 Speaker 2: and Harvey, you know, taking over. So I think Harvey 721 00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:52,640 Speaker 2: and Brian are next. I love this one. I think 722 00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:55,000 Speaker 2: these are the guys who are you gonna see a 723 00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:57,280 Speaker 2: lot of as the Broncos try to make that playoff push. 724 00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:01,760 Speaker 2: So Harvey, Franklin, Bryant, you part Ofay three thirty five 725 00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:04,800 Speaker 2: to one odds. It's finished up with Monday Night Football 726 00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:10,239 Speaker 2: Giants Patriots Kerner. Who do you like in the this 727 00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:13,640 Speaker 2: rematch of or not the not? I shouldn't they rema? Yeah, 728 00:35:13,680 --> 00:35:15,759 Speaker 2: rematch of those two Super Bowls, the last time the 729 00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:19,880 Speaker 2: Giants had anything good going for them? What are we 730 00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:20,640 Speaker 2: doing in this one? 731 00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:23,879 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Devin Singletary around plus two 732 00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:26,920 Speaker 3: twenty here. You know, Tyrone Tracy has taken over as 733 00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,799 Speaker 3: a lead back with Scattaboo out, But Singletary has been 734 00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:32,520 Speaker 3: mixing in a lot more than I expected, especially in 735 00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:34,719 Speaker 3: short yardage and goal line work. He had those two 736 00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:38,759 Speaker 3: touchdowns the other week against the Packers. But if you 737 00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:42,000 Speaker 3: know Jackson dart returns, they probably want him to use 738 00:35:42,040 --> 00:35:44,040 Speaker 3: his legs a little bit less and you know, take 739 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:48,879 Speaker 3: less unnecessary shots with their you know, season basically down 740 00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:52,080 Speaker 3: the drain here, so I think we could see Singletary, 741 00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:54,719 Speaker 3: you know, get more work around the goal line as 742 00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:56,880 Speaker 3: opposed to Dart if he does return this week. 743 00:35:57,640 --> 00:35:59,560 Speaker 2: Yeah. I think it was something like Singletary had taken 744 00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:03,040 Speaker 2: all eighteen eighteen of eighteen short yardge and goal line 745 00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:04,920 Speaker 2: snaps over the past few weeks or something like it was. 746 00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:07,640 Speaker 2: It's pretty nuts. So yeah, he's He's definitely the guy 747 00:36:07,680 --> 00:36:11,200 Speaker 2: they trust in there. Tracy has been had fumble issues 748 00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:13,840 Speaker 2: in the past, so they still love him between the twenties, 749 00:36:13,880 --> 00:36:17,799 Speaker 2: but it's usually Singletary in the important situations. Jill, who 750 00:36:17,840 --> 00:36:19,400 Speaker 2: do you like for Patriots Giants? 751 00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:23,399 Speaker 1: Yeah? I felt almost compelled to do the Booty's up pick, 752 00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:25,120 Speaker 1: but I just couldn't get there. I was figured I 753 00:36:25,360 --> 00:36:28,560 Speaker 1: just keep going with Pop Douglas to Mario Douglas again. 754 00:36:28,600 --> 00:36:30,319 Speaker 1: Now he's up to six to one. I will say 755 00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:32,719 Speaker 1: his snaps have started to trend down over the last 756 00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:35,960 Speaker 1: few weeks, but I'm still encouraging this matchup because we 757 00:36:36,040 --> 00:36:37,480 Speaker 1: know the Giants are going to play a ton of 758 00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:40,880 Speaker 1: man coverage and they are susceptible to the deep ball. Well, Douglas, 759 00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,319 Speaker 1: he has the highest targets run versus man defense, and 760 00:36:43,320 --> 00:36:44,960 Speaker 1: he leads the team in a dods. So if you're 761 00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:46,880 Speaker 1: gonna give me a deep target like him, especially with 762 00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:49,040 Speaker 1: the way that Drake is throwing the ball, I'm gonna 763 00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:50,520 Speaker 1: take Tomoro Douglas at six to one. 764 00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:53,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's crazy that leads the team in ada. I 765 00:36:53,920 --> 00:36:57,600 Speaker 2: mean you'd think of him as exactly the opposite. Yeah 766 00:36:57,680 --> 00:36:58,280 Speaker 2: kind of receiver. 767 00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,720 Speaker 1: He's finally surpassed Booty in the deep shots. 768 00:37:02,280 --> 00:37:06,640 Speaker 2: Yeah ah, no comment. All right, Isaiah Hodgens for me 769 00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:12,000 Speaker 2: five to one. This guy is the essentially the Giants 770 00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,239 Speaker 2: number two receiver. He's He's going to be featured in 771 00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:17,400 Speaker 2: the red zone regardless, actually did operate as their number 772 00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:20,440 Speaker 2: two ahead of Slayton last week. That could flip because 773 00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:23,320 Speaker 2: Slayton was coming back off an injury. But remember Hodges 774 00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:27,279 Speaker 2: has been with Kafka back in twenty twenty three, so 775 00:37:27,840 --> 00:37:32,120 Speaker 2: this is essentially their same wide receiver rotation. It's Wandale, Slayton, Hodgens, 776 00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:34,920 Speaker 2: you got Higat He's not even playing, so that clears 777 00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:38,360 Speaker 2: up more routes for Hodgens. So against his Patriot defense, 778 00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:41,800 Speaker 2: that very good against the run, more of a pass 779 00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:45,360 Speaker 2: funnel defense. Hodges is going to get some opportunities. You know, 780 00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:48,319 Speaker 2: Wandale Robinson is going to be in the slot. He's 781 00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:50,960 Speaker 2: their number one receiver, but a little bit undersize. So 782 00:37:50,960 --> 00:37:53,040 Speaker 2: when they get in the red zone, I think it's 783 00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:55,560 Speaker 2: Hodgens as their number one him and Theo Johnson really 784 00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:58,040 Speaker 2: because Slayton's more of a deep ball guy than a 785 00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:01,240 Speaker 2: red zone guy. So really like this price for Isaiah 786 00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:06,960 Speaker 2: Hodges longer odds than both Slayton and THEO and Wandale, 787 00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:09,680 Speaker 2: So I think that's those are gonna come down as 788 00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:14,800 Speaker 2: week progresses. The parlay singletary the Mario Douglas and Isaiah Hodgen. 789 00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:17,560 Speaker 2: You get one one hundred and forty to one odds. 790 00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:21,200 Speaker 2: That's a banger to close it out, all right. Follow 791 00:38:21,239 --> 00:38:23,640 Speaker 2: the Touchdown Show account on the Action Network app to 792 00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:25,680 Speaker 2: see all of these plays. You can also find all 793 00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:27,840 Speaker 2: of our parlays and longer shot bets on the Parlay 794 00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:30,520 Speaker 2: Express account in the Action app as well. That's gonna 795 00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:33,600 Speaker 2: do it for NFL Week thirteen Touchdown Show presented by 796 00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:36,560 Speaker 2: Draft Kings. If you want to tail some of the 797 00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:38,719 Speaker 2: touchdown bets we discussed, you can also find a quick 798 00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:41,319 Speaker 2: swip wing in the podcast and video description or visit 799 00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:43,799 Speaker 2: Action Network dot com slash bet now. Don't forget to 800 00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:46,319 Speaker 2: check out Playbook on X. Shawn is on X at 801 00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:50,680 Speaker 2: the underscore odds maker Jill is that G DAWG five thousand, 802 00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:53,560 Speaker 2: G Doug five thousand, I'm at. Chris Raybon brought those 803 00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:56,600 Speaker 2: same handles on the app. Happy Thanksgiving, let's get this money, 804 00:38:56,640 --> 00:39:17,160 Speaker 2: Let's give this one. Happy Thanksgiving Gamblers, We're thankful for you.