Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, A.
Speaker 2: Single best idea, a great set of conversations today, just wonderful,
Speaker 2: wonderful guests here getting towards I guess an end to
Speaker 2: a government shutdown. Joe Matthew driving that beast into the
Speaker 2: afternoon and no doubt into the evening. Major shout out
Speaker 2: Nathan Dean with terrific perspective in Washington from Bloomberg Government
Speaker 2: assisting mightily. This morning, we did a lot on bonds.
Speaker 2: It was sort of a bond day, fixed income day
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg Surveillance. Andrew Sizarowski at Eaton Vance Morgan Stanley
Speaker 2: was absolutely brilliant on the uniqueness of this market with
Speaker 2: decades of experience. Russell Brownbeck at Blackrock followed on and
Speaker 2: really put in perspective where we are in clipping coupons here.
Speaker 3: Rus a very large catalyst this coming year is going
Speaker 3: to be as that policy rate comes down. We think
Speaker 3: the feder will deliver what's priced into markets, which is
Speaker 3: down close to neutral by the third or fourth quarter
Speaker 3: of next year. And then you start to think about
Speaker 3: those trillions of dollars sitting in cash today, and cash
Speaker 3: has been a very high sharp ratio allocation heretofore for
Speaker 3: the last six or eight quarters. I think that money
Speaker 3: will begin to migrate into some longer tenors as some
Speaker 3: of those investors look to lock in this opportunity set.
Speaker 3: And we don't see a lot of overall duration beta
Speaker 3: move in this coming year. So again it's going to
Speaker 3: be about harvesting that income as a window.
Speaker 2: Into the fixed income world with Russ Brownback just can't
Speaker 2: say enough about the acuity here of some of our
Speaker 2: fixed income guests at Joe Eisenthal and Tracy Alloway in
Speaker 2: to celebrate ten years of Odd Lots. Today we're talking
Speaker 2: about windows into Global Wall Street for people that aren't
Speaker 2: Global Wall Street. Let me attempt that right now. Jay
Speaker 2: Hatfield was in today with infrastructure assets, and he acclaimed
Speaker 2: from seven thousand standard and pores five hundred out to
Speaker 2: seventy seven hundred standard and pores five hundred. That's a
Speaker 2: DOWO equivalent of over fifty three thousand. He's looking out
Speaker 2: there somewhere to go from forty eight thousand to fifty
Speaker 2: three thousand on the Dow Jones industrial average, just for
Speaker 2: cocktail conversation. So what do you do with that? The
Speaker 2: word the pros use is extrapolation. Let me explain how
Speaker 2: you do it. On the Bloomberg terminal. You take a
Speaker 2: given series the Dow. You look at a given trend
Speaker 2: that you have. I took the trend from the autumn
Speaker 2: of twenty twenty two, which I call the Yardenni and
Speaker 2: Caumpora Lowe. You got a bullmark, a trend up into
Speaker 2: the right. You take that and you extrapolate that out,
Speaker 2: and you can do all this on the Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 2: Then you take from here and now Jay Hatfield's call
Speaker 2: of seventy seven on the SPX is that an outrageous extrapolation?
Speaker 2: Is that responsible? And what's amazing is out twelve months,
Speaker 2: if we were to get to SPX seventy seven hundred,
Speaker 2: it's beneath that regression extrapolation. It is a responsible call.
Speaker 2: And hearkens back to the fundamental analysis of someone like
Speaker 2: ed Yard Denny or Brian Belski at Humanist John John
Speaker 2: Stolfus with us at Oppenheimer the other day on this
Speaker 2: bull market, Jay Hatfield, we.
Speaker 4: Are very constructive, a little bit more next year than
Speaker 4: this year. We have a seven thousand target this year.
Speaker 4: You notice we kind of faded off that when we
Speaker 4: got to sixty nine to forty. And we have drawn
Speaker 4: a distinction because we've been asked to probably one hundred
Speaker 4: times whether we're in a tech bubble, and we say no,
Speaker 4: we're definitely not. But that doesn't mean we're not pretty
Speaker 4: fully valued. On TI We see the maggate is right
Speaker 4: around fair value except for Tussel, which is massively overvalued.
Speaker 4: And so you're seeing that kind of behavior in the
Speaker 4: market where kind of every other day people fade the
Speaker 4: tech rally and we get a rotation and like today,
Speaker 4: we're actually rallying in tech, some more churning than straight up.
Speaker 4: But we have a seventy seven hundred target for next year.
Speaker 2: Absolutely unbelievable. I don't know anyone out there with a
Speaker 2: published seventy seven hundred target. And again, the extrapolation of
Speaker 2: that call by j Hatfield is beneath the trend extrapolation
Speaker 2: back to October of twenty twenty two. It's amazing what
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg terminal can do on your podcast on Apple
Speaker 2: and Spotify, on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea