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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, A.

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Speaker 2: Single best idea, a great set of conversations today, just wonderful,

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Speaker 2: wonderful guests here getting towards I guess an end to

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Speaker 2: a government shutdown. Joe Matthew driving that beast into the

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Speaker 2: afternoon and no doubt into the evening. Major shout out

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Speaker 2: Nathan Dean with terrific perspective in Washington from Bloomberg Government

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Speaker 2: assisting mightily. This morning, we did a lot on bonds.

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Speaker 2: It was sort of a bond day, fixed income day

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Speaker 2: at Bloomberg Surveillance. Andrew Sizarowski at Eaton Vance Morgan Stanley

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Speaker 2: was absolutely brilliant on the uniqueness of this market with

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Speaker 2: decades of experience. Russell Brownbeck at Blackrock followed on and

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Speaker 2: really put in perspective where we are in clipping coupons here.

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Speaker 3: Rus a very large catalyst this coming year is going

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Speaker 3: to be as that policy rate comes down. We think

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Speaker 3: the feder will deliver what's priced into markets, which is

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Speaker 3: down close to neutral by the third or fourth quarter

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Speaker 3: of next year. And then you start to think about

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Speaker 3: those trillions of dollars sitting in cash today, and cash

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Speaker 3: has been a very high sharp ratio allocation heretofore for

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Speaker 3: the last six or eight quarters. I think that money

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Speaker 3: will begin to migrate into some longer tenors as some

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Speaker 3: of those investors look to lock in this opportunity set.

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Speaker 3: And we don't see a lot of overall duration beta

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Speaker 3: move in this coming year. So again it's going to

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Speaker 3: be about harvesting that income as a window.

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Speaker 2: Into the fixed income world with Russ Brownback just can't

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Speaker 2: say enough about the acuity here of some of our

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Speaker 2: fixed income guests at Joe Eisenthal and Tracy Alloway in

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Speaker 2: to celebrate ten years of Odd Lots. Today we're talking

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Speaker 2: about windows into Global Wall Street for people that aren't

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Speaker 2: Global Wall Street. Let me attempt that right now. Jay

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Speaker 2: Hatfield was in today with infrastructure assets, and he acclaimed

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Speaker 2: from seven thousand standard and pores five hundred out to

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Speaker 2: seventy seven hundred standard and pores five hundred. That's a

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Speaker 2: DOWO equivalent of over fifty three thousand. He's looking out

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Speaker 2: there somewhere to go from forty eight thousand to fifty

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Speaker 2: three thousand on the Dow Jones industrial average, just for

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Speaker 2: cocktail conversation. So what do you do with that? The

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Speaker 2: word the pros use is extrapolation. Let me explain how

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Speaker 2: you do it. On the Bloomberg terminal. You take a

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Speaker 2: given series the Dow. You look at a given trend

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Speaker 2: that you have. I took the trend from the autumn

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Speaker 2: of twenty twenty two, which I call the Yardenni and

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Speaker 2: Caumpora Lowe. You got a bullmark, a trend up into

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Speaker 2: the right. You take that and you extrapolate that out,

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Speaker 2: and you can do all this on the Bloomberg terminal.

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Speaker 2: Then you take from here and now Jay Hatfield's call

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Speaker 2: of seventy seven on the SPX is that an outrageous extrapolation?

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Speaker 2: Is that responsible? And what's amazing is out twelve months,

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Speaker 2: if we were to get to SPX seventy seven hundred,

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Speaker 2: it's beneath that regression extrapolation. It is a responsible call.

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Speaker 2: And hearkens back to the fundamental analysis of someone like

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Speaker 2: ed Yard Denny or Brian Belski at Humanist John John

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Speaker 2: Stolfus with us at Oppenheimer the other day on this

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Speaker 2: bull market, Jay Hatfield, we.

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Speaker 4: Are very constructive, a little bit more next year than

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Speaker 4: this year. We have a seven thousand target this year.

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Speaker 4: You notice we kind of faded off that when we

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Speaker 4: got to sixty nine to forty. And we have drawn

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Speaker 4: a distinction because we've been asked to probably one hundred

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Speaker 4: times whether we're in a tech bubble, and we say no,

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Speaker 4: we're definitely not. But that doesn't mean we're not pretty

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Speaker 4: fully valued. On TI We see the maggate is right

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Speaker 4: around fair value except for Tussel, which is massively overvalued.

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Speaker 4: And so you're seeing that kind of behavior in the

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Speaker 4: market where kind of every other day people fade the

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Speaker 4: tech rally and we get a rotation and like today,

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Speaker 4: we're actually rallying in tech, some more churning than straight up.

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Speaker 4: But we have a seventy seven hundred target for next year.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely unbelievable. I don't know anyone out there with a

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Speaker 2: published seventy seven hundred target. And again, the extrapolation of

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Speaker 2: that call by j Hatfield is beneath the trend extrapolation

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Speaker 2: back to October of twenty twenty two. It's amazing what

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg terminal can do on your podcast on Apple

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Speaker 2: and Spotify, on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea