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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Big Day Baker podcast, available every morning

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Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen. It's Tuesday, the

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Speaker 2: first of April in London. I'm Caroline Hipkif.

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Speaker 3: And I'm Stephen Carroll coming up today. The S and

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Speaker 3: P five hundred suffers its worst quarter versus the rest

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Speaker 3: of the world since two thousand and nine, as the

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Speaker 3: NASDAK also underperforms.

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Speaker 2: President Trump will announce his plan for so called reciprocal

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Speaker 2: tariffs in the White House's Rose Garden tomorrow.

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Speaker 3: Plus, facing a fork in the road, the UK Supreme

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Speaker 3: Court is to decide if British banks oh car buyers

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Speaker 3: tens of billions in compensation.

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Speaker 2: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 3: The Nasdaq one hundred has posted its worst quarter in

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Speaker 3: nearly three years, down eight point three percent in the

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Speaker 3: first three months of twenty twenty five. Concerns of an

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Speaker 3: AI bubble combined with taroff uncertainty and fears of a

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Speaker 3: US recession, so investors pulling back from the tech heavy index.

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Speaker 3: Chip Maker and videos in its shairs tumbled twenty eight

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Speaker 3: percent from a January peak, while Broadcom is down thirty

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Speaker 3: three percent from its record high in December. Other megacaps Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet,

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Speaker 3: and Meta have all fallen twenty percent or more from

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Speaker 3: their own records. Here's JP Morgan Global Market Strats just

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Speaker 3: Stephanie Aliaga.

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Speaker 1: So I think what's really hurting tech right now is

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Speaker 1: just the fact that for our investors looking to de

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Speaker 1: risk portfolios like that's the source of risk in their

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Speaker 1: portfolios is. Given how much of equity outperformance we've had

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Speaker 1: in those names, we've seen this rotation towards other areas

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Speaker 1: of the market that are better positioned, perhaps in the

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Speaker 1: midst of this trade war, energy, materials, utilities, financials.

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Speaker 3: Perhaps Stephanie Aliaga was speaking after two warnings last week

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Speaker 3: about the potential over supply of data centers, including from

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Speaker 3: the co founder of Ali Baba.

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Speaker 2: It's also been a quarter to forget for the S

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Speaker 2: and P five hundred. Despite eking out a small gain

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Speaker 2: or Monday, the equity benchmark posted its worst period versus

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Speaker 2: the rest of the world since two thousand and nine. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 2: European defense stocks have helped to drive and historic quarter

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Speaker 2: of outperformance for European equities in dollar terms. The stock

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Speaker 2: six hundred has had its best ever quarter versus the

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Speaker 2: S and P five hundred, but Brad Bernstein at UBS

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Speaker 2: Private Wealth Management says this could be the high water

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Speaker 2: mark for Europe.

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Speaker 4: So we think the easy money has been made there

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Speaker 4: on the back of, you know, more stimulus and more

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Speaker 4: defense spending, because of our administration's position on NATO is

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Speaker 4: they've made very clear. So we actually think it from

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Speaker 4: this point and from these levels, the US markets for

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Speaker 4: the rest of the year look more attractive than the rest.

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Speaker 5: Of the world.

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Speaker 2: Ah, Brad Bernstein's optimism on the US isn't shared by everyone. Yesterday,

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Speaker 2: Goldman Sachs as David Costin cut his SMP five hundred

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Speaker 2: end of the year target to five seven hundred, versus

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Speaker 2: his previous previous estimate of six two hundred. The Wall

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Speaker 2: Street benchmark close at just over five six hundred yesterday.

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump will and veil a so called reciprocal tariff

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Speaker 3: plan tomorrow in the White House's Rose Garden. White House

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Speaker 3: per Secretary Caroline Levitt says the announcement will feature country

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Speaker 3: based levies and that the President is committed to implementing

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Speaker 3: sectoral duties, but they will not be the focus. Speaking

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Speaker 3: yesterday about his plans. Trump said the measures would be

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Speaker 3: lenient in comparison to other countries.

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Speaker 6: They're reciprocal, So whatever they charge us, we charge them,

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Speaker 6: but were being nicer than they were. The numbers will

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Speaker 6: be lower than what they've been charging us, and in

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Speaker 6: some cases may be substantially lower. But we sort of

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Speaker 6: have a world obligation perhaps, but we're going to be

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Speaker 6: very nice, relatively speaking, We're going to be very kind.

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Speaker 3: President Trump's comments came as US automakers have been making

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Speaker 3: last minute efforts to lobby his administration for tariff exceptions.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg understands brands including Ford, General Motors and Stuf pushing

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Speaker 3: the White House to exclude certain low cast car components

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Speaker 3: from planned levies. That's a Federal Reserve Bank of New

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Speaker 3: York President John Williams said he sees a higher risk

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Speaker 3: of inflation due to Trump's tariff plans. That was during

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Speaker 3: an interview with Yahoo Finance.

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Speaker 2: Marie La Penn has criticized a court ruling barring her

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Speaker 2: from running for elective office for five years and ruling

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Speaker 2: out a twenty twenty seven presidential run. The French far

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Speaker 2: right leader, who is convicted of embezzlement, claimed the decision

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Speaker 2: was a deliberate effort to prevent her from gaining the presidency.

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Speaker 2: In an interview with the French station TF.

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Speaker 7: One, millions of French people who are outraged, outraged to

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Speaker 7: an unimaginable point, seeing that in France, in the country

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Speaker 7: of human rights, judges have put in place practices that

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Speaker 7: one would think are reserved for authoritarian regimes.

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Speaker 2: Marie La Penn speaking their Vron later, she was a

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Speaker 2: top contender for the presidency according to recent polls. In

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Speaker 2: addition to the five year electoral ban, she was sentenced

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Speaker 2: to two years in prison, with two more suspended. The

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Speaker 2: judgment threatens a delicate political piece that allowed President Macron

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Speaker 2: to pass a budget for twenty twenty five. The news

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Speaker 2: could also make a no confidence motion in Parliament more likely.

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Speaker 2: In hand full control of Lapen's national rally to the

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Speaker 2: party's twenty nine year old president, Jordan Bardella.

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Speaker 3: People in Britain are facing more taxes, higher prices, and

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Speaker 3: mounting bills as April sees a host of cost of

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Speaker 3: living increases. Calculations by Bloomberg show UK households have seen

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Speaker 3: six hundred pounds added to their annual bills overnight, as

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Speaker 3: utility and phone bills rise. The latest British Retail Consortium

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Speaker 3: data shows that food prices climbed by two point four

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Speaker 3: percent in the past year, the fastest pace in nine months.

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Speaker 3: Conservative MP Alex Berghart says the government's tax rises are

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Speaker 3: adding to the pain.

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Speaker 8: People's bills are going to go up, Council tax is

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Speaker 8: going to go up, water bills are going up, train

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Speaker 8: fares have gone up and people are going to start

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Speaker 8: losing their jobs and businesses are going to start shutting

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Speaker 8: down because the tax changes that the Chancellor has made.

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Speaker 8: That is what is happening now. That is a clear

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Speaker 8: and present danger to the British economy.

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Speaker 3: Berkhart's party ever saw the first parliamentary term and Mardyer

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Speaker 3: in history where living standards fell in Britain. But the

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Speaker 3: perception of worsening hardship is dangerous for the Labor government

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Speaker 3: after it ran on a pledge to reverse that trend.

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Speaker 2: UK banks are bracing for an estimated cost that could

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Speaker 2: run up to thirty eight billion pounds if a Supreme

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Speaker 2: Court hearing goes against them, and really on motor finance

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Speaker 2: has already hit many UK bank's dogs and goes before

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Speaker 2: Britain's top Court today. Bloomberg's James Wilcock hasmore.

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Speaker 9: It has the potential to be the UK's most expensive

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Speaker 9: consumer scandal in a decade. Last year, a cordoral banks

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Speaker 9: that paid commissions to car dealers without consumer consent were unlawful.

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Speaker 9: Now Lloyd's, the UK's largest provider of car finance, has

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Speaker 9: marked one point fifteen billions so far for any potential payouts.

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Speaker 9: Is their CEO, Charlie Nunn talking to us in February.

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Speaker 10: It has created uncertainty in investors. The core theme really

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Speaker 10: is the Court of Appeal came out with a decision

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Speaker 10: that was at odds with thirty years of regulation and

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Speaker 10: we always said that we really need clarity on this

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Speaker 10: quickly because it creates an investability problem, not just for

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Speaker 10: UK financial services but actually the UK more broadly.

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Speaker 9: Now it's up to Britain's top Court to sell the matter.

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Speaker 9: They hear arguments over the next three days. It's one

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Speaker 9: of the most watched cases in years, with implications for

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Speaker 9: any business that provides credit for people buying goods in

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Speaker 9: the UK, as well as the international investors who back them.

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Speaker 9: In London. James Wallcock, Bloomberg Radio those.

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Speaker 2: Are our top stories for you this morning. Now let's

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Speaker 2: get to the market. So the S and P five

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Speaker 2: hundred we mentioned ended in the green yesterday but actually

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Speaker 2: stopped futures and now down almost three tenths of one percent,

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Speaker 2: most of yesterday's game being erased. Then today, US markets

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Speaker 2: underperformed world equities in the first quarter of the year

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Speaker 2: than as that, falling by eight and a quarter percent,

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Speaker 2: the worst quarter actually in three years. The standout for

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Speaker 2: the last quarter, of course, was gold rising nineteen percent,

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Speaker 2: the best quarter since the nineteen eighties. And this morning

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Speaker 2: you've got another record high for billion three thy one

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Speaker 2: hundred and forty two dollars. Right now, the mscihed Pacific

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Speaker 2: Index is up this morning eight tenths of one percent.

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Speaker 2: You've also got gains on the CSI three hundred and

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Speaker 2: mainland Chinese indices after the kaishin manufacturing PMI beat forecasts.

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Speaker 2: So those are the markets.

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Speaker 3: In a moment, we'll bring you more on the hit

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Speaker 3: to US ducks in the first quarter, plus the latest

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Speaker 3: that we know about the tariff plans expected tomorrow. But

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Speaker 3: in the story that Kosaai this morning, the new Michelin

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Speaker 3: guide for France is out thirty one three star dining rooms,

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Speaker 3: including two new editions, so one restaurant in Laoshell which

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Speaker 3: is owned by Christopher A. Kutaso and lu Kokiage in Brittany,

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Speaker 3: and some menoir doos on just near Samalo as well

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Speaker 3: being added to the three star list as well. This

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Speaker 3: is one of those things where I start going down

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Speaker 3: the list and I think, well, I don't meant to

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Speaker 3: any of these places, and then you go further down

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Speaker 3: the list and you get to the two stars and

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Speaker 3: the one stars, and I think, and the one stars,

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Speaker 3: I've been to a couple of them, but you know,

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Speaker 3: not many project.

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Speaker 2: Perhaps fifty seven new one star one star Vestler so

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Speaker 2: you can them again. The little Red Bible is out

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Speaker 2: there for all your food lovers. Yeah, we always like talking.

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Speaker 3: But the other part of this as well as that,

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Speaker 3: I'm always quite gloud that places don't appear on this list,

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Speaker 3: because then it means you'll still be able to get

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Speaker 3: into them, which is the other part of it.

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Speaker 2: Well, there are a few Mishla rebels, of course. Every year.

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Speaker 2: There are a few people who, you know, give those stars,

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Speaker 2: give up the sub buck the system, or don't like it.

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Speaker 2: But there's also a little bit, you know, on a

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Speaker 2: more serious note, is always like a foody story. There's

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Speaker 2: a bit of extra pressure on France to pull in

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Speaker 2: more tourists. Remember there was a record number of tourists

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four because France hosted the Olympics, But

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Speaker 2: then given tariffs and the economic pressure, there's a little

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Speaker 2: bit more pressure now to bring in all of those

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Speaker 2: kind of food tourists from.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I was the currency changes as well.

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Speaker 3: The slightly stronger euro too is going to make things

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Speaker 3: a bit more expensive for American tourists coming to Europe too.

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Speaker 3: But anyway, that's a story you can read more of

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Speaker 3: on bloomberg dot com and on the terminal.

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Speaker 2: Now mid President Donald Trumps anticipated tariff roll out tomorrow

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Speaker 2: and fears of an Artivision intelligence and bubble markets have

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Speaker 2: seen added volatility then, as that posted its worst quarter

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Speaker 2: in nearly three years, and gold hit a fresh record

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Speaker 2: high overnight, joining US now as Bloomberg's Markets Live stretches

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Speaker 2: Mark Cranfield, Good morning, Mark. The mag seven led US

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Speaker 2: stocks high for most of the past two and a

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Speaker 2: half years, but not at the start of this year.

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Speaker 5: Why, there's a few parts to this, but I'll keep

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Speaker 5: it to brief. So US exceptionalism is being questioned heavily.

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Speaker 5: People are having second thoughts about what it means for

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Speaker 5: the policies under Donald Trump. Initially, I think people thought

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Speaker 5: that it would be very good expansionary initially for the

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Speaker 5: US economy. That doesn't appear to be the case as

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Speaker 5: people have second thoughts. They investors seem to be thinking

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Speaker 5: that quite a few of these, particularly tariff related policies,

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Speaker 5: will actually be damaging to the US economy in the

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Speaker 5: near to them, so take a hit to growth. So

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Speaker 5: that's partly why tech stocks have come back. And then

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Speaker 5: you've also got competition. Finally, there is an alternative for

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Speaker 5: Chinese tech companies thanks to deep Seek and related AI products.

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Speaker 5: They seem to now be a tangible alternative to the US.

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Speaker 5: And of course they're underpricing a lot of the things

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Speaker 5: that Nvidia and its colleagues were doing, so you've got

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Speaker 5: a number of things coming together. There'll be other factors

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Speaker 5: as well, but certainly, going into the Trump presidency, tech

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Speaker 5: was priced for perfection in the United States there appeared

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Speaker 5: to be no alternative. Finally, people are seeing there are

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Speaker 5: other places around the world. They might be able to

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Speaker 5: deploy their money, and they're questioning whether the American economy

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Speaker 5: can produce the same kind of results as it has

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Speaker 5: over the past few years.

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Speaker 3: And of course, key to that is going to be

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Speaker 3: what we're expecting to learn about tariffs, and we're going

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Speaker 3: to get into that in the moments with our colleague

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Speaker 3: Derek Worldbank. But in ton of the market expectations, are

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Speaker 3: markets expecting clarity from this announcement from the US president tomorrow?

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Speaker 5: There will be some clarity in the sense that whatever

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Speaker 5: is announced from President Trump will add a little bit

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Speaker 5: more detail to some of the speculation that we've seen

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Speaker 5: over the past few days. But I suspect that is

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Speaker 5: only the beginning of the story. If you're an investor,

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Speaker 5: you'll be looking for not just what comes out on

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Speaker 5: that side of the equation. You'll be looking for the

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Speaker 5: reactions from Europe, from China, from Japan, or the countries

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Speaker 5: that will be affected by whatever lands this week. In

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Speaker 5: terms of the taro is not a one sided equation.

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Speaker 5: It's not as though they're just going to dump a

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Speaker 5: bunch of tariffs on the world and everyone's just going

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Speaker 5: to sit back and say, well, that said it doesn't

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Speaker 5: sound that it's going to be the case at all.

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Speaker 5: Several countries have already said they will reciprocate in some

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Speaker 5: form or another exactly what we don't know yet. Now

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Speaker 5: that makes from an investor's point of view, really that

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Speaker 5: just muddies the waters even further. So it's no wonder

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Speaker 5: that people are taking a very defensive approach to things,

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Speaker 5: and it isn't likely to get any better in the

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Speaker 5: near term. It looks as though the second quarter is

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Speaker 5: going to be just as difficult for traders as it

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Speaker 5: was in the first quarter.

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Speaker 2: So what about haven's Briefly, the dollars had its worst

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Speaker 2: start to the year since twenty seventeen, but it's gold

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Speaker 2: that has hit another record high today.

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Speaker 5: That appears to be the only thing that all investors

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Speaker 5: currently agree on is that gold wins no matter what.

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Speaker 5: It seems to have outridden everything, even cryptocurrencies for a

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Speaker 5: while are being touted as being a haven. That's all

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Speaker 5: gone into the background as well. The US dollar story

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Speaker 5: probably has further to run because that is related to

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Speaker 5: the US exceptionalism as that breaks down. The easiest place

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Speaker 5: for macro traders to express that is on the currency.

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Speaker 5: So if more people fear that money is going to

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Speaker 5: flow out of United States assets. The dollar is the

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Speaker 5: first place you will see that equities is the next.

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Speaker 5: Treasury is in a slightly different space because of course

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Speaker 5: people would expect at some stage the Federal Reserve to

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Speaker 5: lower interest rates if they fear sob a GROWTHO Treasury

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Speaker 5: is can probably hold up. But suddenly the dollar is

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Speaker 5: at more risk. If people think that the spread of

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Speaker 5: wealth destruction and the slower growth is going to go

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Speaker 5: on for several months, than the dollar could be in trouble.

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Speaker 3: Okay, Mark Cranfield, our market's life strategist, thank you for

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Speaker 3: joining us.

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Speaker 2: Well, let's get more detail then on country based tariffs

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Speaker 2: that are due to be announced by President Trump in

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Speaker 2: the White House of Rose Garden on Wednesday. Trump's called

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Speaker 2: the Measures Liberation Day, aimed at countering what the presiden

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Speaker 2: sees as unfair trade practices. Joining us now has been

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Speaker 2: big Senior editor for US Economics and Government, Derek Walbank,

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Speaker 2: Good morning, So the White House Press sector, you heard

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Speaker 2: a snippet of it, called it historic change. What do

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Speaker 2: we know about size, scope, duration of the tariffs?

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Speaker 11: Well, historic is exactly the right word. Although it's going

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Speaker 11: to fall a little bit short of what Donald Trump

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Speaker 11: had initially talked about. Right when he was initially talking

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Speaker 11: about reciprocal tariffs, the idea that first flashed across a

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Speaker 11: lot of minds was the idea that there would be

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Speaker 11: some big tariff matrix of every single one of thousands

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Speaker 11: of product lines crossed with one hundred plus economies, and

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Speaker 11: then you'd get this big sort of web of reciprocal tariffs.

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Speaker 11: Weited not just for the actual tariff barriers, but the

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Speaker 11: non tariff barriers as well. That is all. It seems

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Speaker 11: far more complex than what is coming. And in addition

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Speaker 11: to sort of potentially country by country levies, you're also

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Speaker 11: going to see Trump's Trump has said repeatedly that these

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Speaker 11: will be less stringent than he sees the reciprocal levee

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Speaker 11: fair point as being, if you will, he said, He's

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Speaker 11: made a point of saying that these are going to

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Speaker 11: be a much kinder than than perhaps they otherwise could be.

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Speaker 3: What about in terms of the retaliation this might provoke,

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Speaker 3: what sort of expectations do we have?

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Speaker 11: Well, that's the real key question, isn't it. And I

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Speaker 11: think that there are a lot of US industries that

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Speaker 11: are looking at that right now. So far, countries broadly

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Speaker 11: are keeping their powder dry, waiting to see what's going

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Speaker 11: to be publicly unveiled. There have obviously been a lot

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Speaker 11: of efforts to pre negotiate, to try and play up

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Speaker 11: trade relationships. That has worked for some, maybe maybe not

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Speaker 11: as much as they would like. But it is also

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Speaker 11: clear from Trump administration officials that they see these reciprocal

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Speaker 11: tariff announcements as maybe a starting point for future negotiations. Now,

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Speaker 11: markets have kind of gone back and forth about what

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Speaker 11: this is actually going to be in practice. Trump has said,

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Speaker 11: you know, you can have these negotiations, but also said

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Speaker 11: that he doesn't want to have too many in the

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Speaker 11: way of exceptions. So we're gonna have to see where

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Speaker 11: this goes. But I would look at April second, broadly speaking,

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Speaker 11: as a start point, not a finish line.

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