WEBVTT - Monday MLB Picks | 3 Best Bets & Player Props for August 17

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<v Speaker 1>Good Monday morning, everybody. What's up.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome into a new episode of the Daily Juice podcast

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<v Speaker 2>with me Matt Perrault. I'm your host for this three

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<v Speaker 2>hundred and sixty five ish podcast you get wherever you

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<v Speaker 2>get your audio or video podcasts. You guys can follow

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<v Speaker 2>me across my own socials at Sports Talk Matt. We

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<v Speaker 2>are back after a winning Sunday. In fact, we finally

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<v Speaker 2>had one of these. We have not swept the board

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<v Speaker 2>in a bit. We did that yesterday. We go three

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<v Speaker 2>and oh with a plus money play on Kyle Schwarber.

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<v Speaker 2>More on that trend here. In just one second, we

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<v Speaker 2>get Tampa Bay and Baltimore coming in with the easy over,

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<v Speaker 2>and after the rain, the Padres get the win over

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<v Speaker 2>the Guardians at im As on a wait price.

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<v Speaker 1>So three o eight up over three units to end

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<v Speaker 1>the week. That's good. I'll go do the math.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know what we did last week, and my

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<v Speaker 2>gut tells me we're probably right almost. If we're down,

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<v Speaker 2>we're down a little. If we're up, we're up a little.

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<v Speaker 2>Pretty much flat. When you get that three and oh

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<v Speaker 2>at the end of the week, that kind of makes

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<v Speaker 2>up for a lot of the nonsense. So it's good

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<v Speaker 2>to be back. The wedding was beautiful, the trip was awesome.

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<v Speaker 2>I had a great, great time. And you know when

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<v Speaker 2>you come back from a wedding weekend, you got to

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<v Speaker 2>get your bearings a little bit and you got to

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<v Speaker 2>kind of shake the cobwebs out and kind of get

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<v Speaker 2>going and going. All right, now, let's let's lock back in.

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<v Speaker 2>So here is kind of what is going to happen

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<v Speaker 2>this week. We're going to do baseball for the beginning

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<v Speaker 2>part of the week. We will end the week again

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<v Speaker 2>with football as we'll get back in a week two

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<v Speaker 2>of the NFL Thursday Friday Saturday as the NFL rolls,

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<v Speaker 2>and then Sunday we'll go back to baseball, most likely

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<v Speaker 2>just because we kind of have to.

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<v Speaker 1>We don't really have a choice in the matter but

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<v Speaker 1>to go ahead and jump in on baseball.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's kind of this week, and then the following

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<v Speaker 2>week we are going to be back to Vegas. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>going out for the Circa Contest weekend for Thursday, Friday Saturday,

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<v Speaker 2>so I'll.

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<v Speaker 1>Be out there doing that.

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<v Speaker 2>And so there will be again the West Coast changeover meeting,

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<v Speaker 2>the overnight posting of the podcast. But that's next week,

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<v Speaker 2>so we'll worry about next week. Next week. Let's focus

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<v Speaker 2>on this week. Let's start here talking a bit more

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<v Speaker 2>about what goes on with the home Run Best Bet tool.

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<v Speaker 1>You guys can go and check this out and.

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<v Speaker 2>Do your own research and kind of figure out what

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<v Speaker 2>this projection looks like. I think it's really a really

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<v Speaker 2>cool tool because it shows that it gives you a

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<v Speaker 2>better against a pitcher matchup that could result either into

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<v Speaker 2>a home run or doubles multiple hits. RBIs hits runs

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<v Speaker 2>and RBIs so bettingpros dot Com slash homers. Bettingpros dot

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<v Speaker 2>Com slash homers.

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<v Speaker 1>Go check it out.

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<v Speaker 2>See what you guys can do with their own research

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<v Speaker 2>to find out who is the top option for today.

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<v Speaker 2>Now I have gone and taken the top option today

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<v Speaker 2>for where we are. Jared Young of the Mets against

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<v Speaker 2>the Padres is a guy who is being projected as

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<v Speaker 2>the number one most likely guy to go deep today.

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<v Speaker 2>Now does that mean he goes deep?

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<v Speaker 1>No?

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<v Speaker 2>Okay again, these are home run props are tough. Okay,

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<v Speaker 2>it's not a lottery ticket, but it's it's it's tough.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not your traditional like this is going to be easy.

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<v Speaker 2>So Walker Buehler is the pitcher on the other side,

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<v Speaker 2>and Walker Buehler has been pretty good in the month

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<v Speaker 2>of August. He's a three point one four ERA. He's

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<v Speaker 2>given up one home run here in the month of August.

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<v Speaker 2>He's only going about four or five or six innings

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<v Speaker 2>though he's not going deep into games at all, seventy

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<v Speaker 2>six ninety eight pitches his last time out in a

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<v Speaker 2>sixth inning performance eleven to two win over the Milwaukee Brewers.

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<v Speaker 2>But Jared Young has been red hot getting hits. Jared

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<v Speaker 2>Young has gone over a half a hit half a

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<v Speaker 2>base in six straight games. Now, if you go back

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<v Speaker 2>to over one and a half total basis, it's five

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<v Speaker 2>and one. He's gone three, three, four to one, two

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<v Speaker 2>and five over his lacks cisc games for total basis.

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<v Speaker 1>So you take the Jared Young.

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<v Speaker 2>Prop and you can go over a half over a

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<v Speaker 2>half a base being a single he cashes. That's like

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<v Speaker 2>one minus one seventy five somewhere in there. But because

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<v Speaker 2>I don't like laying juice like that for us, and

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think we have to do that, I think

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<v Speaker 2>there's an opportunity here if we're going to run the

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<v Speaker 2>possession or run the trend rather and say, okay, we

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<v Speaker 2>like what we're doing. We're five and one doing this

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<v Speaker 2>trend of taking the top option on the home run

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<v Speaker 2>projection tool and going to totalit are going to hits

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<v Speaker 2>runs and RBIs. This is a five star play to

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<v Speaker 2>go over a half. That's not a five star play

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<v Speaker 2>to go over one and a half, but it is

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<v Speaker 2>a plus money play to go over one and a half.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think it's worth taking a shot at it

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<v Speaker 2>to fire on it and come in and go Jared

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<v Speaker 2>Young over one and a half total basis it's plus

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<v Speaker 2>one seventy six. I mean, we got a pretty good

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<v Speaker 2>price in this for one unit, he gets a double.

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<v Speaker 2>That's what happened yesterday to Kyle Schwarber. He started the

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<v Speaker 2>game off with a double and he went over one

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<v Speaker 2>and a half total bases and we're good. So this

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<v Speaker 2>will be Jared Young over one and a half total

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<v Speaker 2>bases again at plus one seventy six. If he goes deep,

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<v Speaker 2>that's tremendous. But I mean it's again home run prought's

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<v Speaker 2>a little more difficult to kind of to project on that.

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<v Speaker 2>So this is a guy who's been hot. You can

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<v Speaker 2>play over half a base if you want, so a

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<v Speaker 2>single will cash it. I played over one and a

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<v Speaker 2>half to get the best price, to get the plus

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<v Speaker 2>money and to take a shot here on a Monday,

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<v Speaker 2>So why not.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean this again, if you.

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<v Speaker 2>Date all the way back to the fifth of Cleveland

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<v Speaker 2>fifth of August against Cleveland, Jerry Young has gone over

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<v Speaker 2>this over a half in every single game except one,

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<v Speaker 2>so that is a total of nine of the last

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<v Speaker 2>ten games he's gone over a half.

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<v Speaker 1>So again, just no matter.

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<v Speaker 2>If you want to play the odds, you want to

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<v Speaker 2>take a shot at a half, take a shot at

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<v Speaker 2>a half.

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<v Speaker 1>It may be a better bet if you.

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<v Speaker 2>Don't mind laying the juice, and you only pay the

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<v Speaker 2>juice when you lose, so you don't pay the juice

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<v Speaker 2>when you win the bet. So Jared Young has been

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<v Speaker 2>a very productive hitter at the plate and gotten on

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<v Speaker 2>base quite a bit here, so Jered Young may be

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<v Speaker 2>the best play for a home run, but I like it.

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<v Speaker 2>Jerry Young over total bases at plus one seventy six

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<v Speaker 2>here today for the Mets up against the Padres. Now

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<v Speaker 2>let's go to the Cubs and the White Sox. Pete

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<v Speaker 2>Crow Armstrong is the top option on the prop bet

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<v Speaker 2>cheat sheet to go over one and a half total

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<v Speaker 2>bases for the game. This is a five star play

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<v Speaker 2>projection is going to three. He is four and three

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<v Speaker 2>over the last seven games going over, but last game

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<v Speaker 2>against Saint Louis he snapped an zero for three streak

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<v Speaker 2>that he was on. But Pete Crow Armstrong, as we know,

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<v Speaker 2>is a very productive hitter. This is a guy, amazingly enough,

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<v Speaker 2>at one point in time he was way back of

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<v Speaker 2>Otani for the MVP in the National League. Now he's

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<v Speaker 2>right there as a great option for the National League.

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<v Speaker 2>You can play over one and a half hits, runs

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<v Speaker 2>and RBIs if you want for this, just depends upon

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<v Speaker 2>the price you want to pay. It's one fifty two,

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<v Speaker 2>one fifty seven, one fifty at most books to play

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<v Speaker 2>over one and a half hits, runs and RBIs for

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<v Speaker 2>Pete Crow Armstrong. If you just go to the total bases,

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<v Speaker 2>it's going to be a cheaper price. Now he needs

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<v Speaker 2>to get more hits obviously on that, because that's a

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<v Speaker 2>guy who hasn't been that hot here with going over

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<v Speaker 2>total bases. He hit a home run yesterday, so he

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<v Speaker 2>got over the total bases of one and a half yesterday,

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<v Speaker 2>but he is that was yesterday right on the sixteenth, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>yesterday against the Cardinals, so he had two RBIs, home

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<v Speaker 2>run scored and run. So he flew over hitch runs

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<v Speaker 2>and RBIs there. He flew over total bases as well yesterday.

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<v Speaker 2>But he went oh for four on the three previous games.

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<v Speaker 2>So here against the White Sox a pitching matchup that

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<v Speaker 2>I think he's going to like a lot here against

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<v Speaker 2>the White Sox. You know, obviously the cross town rivalry

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<v Speaker 2>going on. The Cubs are twenty eight and sorry, the

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<v Speaker 2>Cubs are thirty six and twenty six at home. The

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<v Speaker 2>White Sox are twenty eight and thirty four in the road,

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<v Speaker 2>and Luis Castillo's going for the White Sox.

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<v Speaker 1>He has not been good on the road.

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<v Speaker 2>His only road start for the White Sox since being

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<v Speaker 2>traded over for the Mariners, he went four six hits,

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<v Speaker 2>five ironed runs given up, gave up a home run.

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<v Speaker 2>Then he pitched against the Reds at home he went seven, shutout.

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<v Speaker 2>He was great. This is now on the road here

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<v Speaker 2>and his road dra has not been great. Five point

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<v Speaker 2>four nine. He's got two to five record and postmatting

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<v Speaker 2>average two eighty six, So not a bad guy to

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<v Speaker 2>fade here on the road against the Dodgers. In his

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<v Speaker 2>final start up against when he was with Seattle, he

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<v Speaker 2>went five innings, eleven hits, five earned runs. In a

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<v Speaker 2>start against Tampa Bay on the road, he went five innings,

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<v Speaker 2>nine hits, four earned runs. So a pretty good chance

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<v Speaker 2>for PCA here to attack Luis Castillo and out of

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<v Speaker 2>the gate, get a double, get a home run, get

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<v Speaker 2>over one and a half total bases. We're gonna go

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<v Speaker 2>ahead and take it with PCA over one and a

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<v Speaker 2>half total bases at minus one oh six for one

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<v Speaker 2>point zero six units. Now the remaining the remaining bet.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't love the card, okay, I shopped around a

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<v Speaker 2>lot on this. Blake Snell is going for the Dodgers

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<v Speaker 2>up against the Rockies. Blake Snell has been absolutely dominant

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<v Speaker 2>against the dot Against the Rockies last time out in September,

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<v Speaker 2>he pitched six innings, no earned runs. Back on the

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<v Speaker 2>July twenty seventh into twenty four he uh, oh, I'm

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<v Speaker 2>sorry that was July. No, that's September nineteenth. Against twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty three, he threw z seven innings, no earned

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<v Speaker 2>runs like he's been really, Blake Snell has been dominant

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<v Speaker 2>against Colorado. We know Colorado's not very good. We know

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<v Speaker 2>the Dodgers are the Dodgers here, and the Dodgers enter

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<v Speaker 2>this losing three of their last four games. Like did

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<v Speaker 2>this Dodger team needs to wake up and going to

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<v Speaker 2>Colorado was a great time to do it. They're twenty

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<v Speaker 2>seven and thirty two on the road. Saguno is on

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<v Speaker 2>the other side here. He's been good.

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<v Speaker 1>He's twelve and five with a four point four to

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<v Speaker 1>three e er.

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<v Speaker 2>If you want to talk about the ace for Colorado,

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<v Speaker 2>you could say he is the ace. The team has

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<v Speaker 2>won four of the last five games pitched by Seguno.

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<v Speaker 2>But I'm taking the Dodgers, Okay, I just I think

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<v Speaker 2>this team has to figure it out and wake up.

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<v Speaker 2>When Blake Snell on the mound, and how dominant Blake

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<v Speaker 2>Snell has been against the Rockies. Blake Snell again, one

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<v Speaker 2>pit one start so far, come off the il six innings,

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<v Speaker 2>one earned runs and a five to four win and

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<v Speaker 2>extras over the Royals for the Dodgers. So first half

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<v Speaker 2>of the parlay, I'm taking the Dodgers over the over

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<v Speaker 2>the Rockies. The second half is we go to my

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<v Speaker 2>guy and you can just if you don't want to

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<v Speaker 2>bet the parlay, you can bet Phillies on the run

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<v Speaker 2>line if you want.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's just home team run line.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know, I feel like that's a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>of a trap today. Jansen Junk going for the Marlins.

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<v Speaker 2>The Marlins are twenty six and thirty two on the road.

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<v Speaker 2>The Marlins have been absolutely reeling that this series is

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<v Speaker 2>tied at five though five and five each, So rather

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<v Speaker 2>than trying to get created a little creative here with

0:11:40.360 --> 0:11:42.600
<v Speaker 2>Sanchez on the run line and Santa's on the run

0:11:42.640 --> 0:11:45.160
<v Speaker 2>line is not a bad bet. The last four games

0:11:45.200 --> 0:11:48.640
<v Speaker 2>won by the Phillies with Santanel with centres on the

0:11:48.640 --> 0:11:51.400
<v Speaker 2>mound has been one on the run line, seven to

0:11:51.440 --> 0:11:54.280
<v Speaker 2>three over Washington, five to nothing over the Baltimore Orioles,

0:11:54.320 --> 0:11:56.360
<v Speaker 2>eleven to four over the Yankees, ten to seven over

0:11:56.400 --> 0:11:59.440
<v Speaker 2>the Dodgers. Lost his last start to nothing against the

0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:01.040
<v Speaker 2>Saint Louis Cardinals.

0:12:01.320 --> 0:12:02.959
<v Speaker 1>He went six no earned runs.

0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:06.679
<v Speaker 2>But I don't I'm a little bit hesitant just to

0:12:06.760 --> 0:12:08.880
<v Speaker 2>lay it because it's like mice one fifteen, mice one

0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:13.120
<v Speaker 2>twenty to lay the juice and home team laying juice

0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:15.640
<v Speaker 2>on the run line just doesn't really sit well with me.

0:12:16.120 --> 0:12:17.360
<v Speaker 1>So let's just go ahead and.

0:12:17.360 --> 0:12:20.440
<v Speaker 2>Do a two leg money line parlay and go Phillies

0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:23.480
<v Speaker 2>Dodgers money line at minus one oh five.

0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:24.760
<v Speaker 1>It's the first day of the week.

0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:28.160
<v Speaker 2>Not always great to bet parlays, you guys, No, I

0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:31.360
<v Speaker 2>hate betting parlays, but I just think Phillies Dodgers on

0:12:31.360 --> 0:12:33.720
<v Speaker 2>a Monday to get off to a good start here.

0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:36.719
<v Speaker 2>I think both teams will get w's today. You can

0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:38.920
<v Speaker 2>start to get into this. I like doing two leg

0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:41.080
<v Speaker 2>money line parlays as we get later in the year

0:12:41.360 --> 0:12:44.360
<v Speaker 2>with bad baseball teams because frankly, the good teams need

0:12:44.360 --> 0:12:47.240
<v Speaker 2>to win. The bad teams want to lose, so they aren't.

0:12:47.280 --> 0:12:48.920
<v Speaker 2>You know their way out of it, and they know it.

0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:51.680
<v Speaker 2>So let's go Phillies Dodgers' money line two leg parlay

0:12:51.679 --> 0:12:54.439
<v Speaker 2>at mice one oh five. PCA going over one and

0:12:54.440 --> 0:12:56.360
<v Speaker 2>a half total bases at mice one oh six and

0:12:56.440 --> 0:12:59.160
<v Speaker 2>Jared Young going over one and a half total bases

0:12:59.280 --> 0:13:01.560
<v Speaker 2>at plus one seventy six. But again, you can play

0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:03.280
<v Speaker 2>that at over a half a base if you want

0:13:03.760 --> 0:13:05.400
<v Speaker 2>and lay the Juice on that. If you're a little

0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:07.360
<v Speaker 2>bit scared on that, it's mine. One sixty mise one

0:13:07.480 --> 0:13:09.719
<v Speaker 2>seventy on that, I'll go and fire on it. Why not,

0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:12.600
<v Speaker 2>it's a Monday. Let's have some fun. Jared Young over

0:13:12.640 --> 0:13:15.520
<v Speaker 2>one and a half total bases at plus one seventy six.

0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:17.199
<v Speaker 2>My name is Matt Paroti. You guys can follow me

0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:19.880
<v Speaker 2>across all of my socials at Sports Talk Matt every

0:13:19.920 --> 0:13:21.840
<v Speaker 2>morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.

0:13:22.000 --> 0:13:36.880
<v Speaker 1>It is the Daily Juice