Speaker 1: Good Monday morning, everybody. What's up.
Speaker 2: Welcome into a new episode of the Daily Juice podcast
Speaker 2: with me Matt Perrault. I'm your host for this three
Speaker 2: hundred and sixty five ish podcast you get wherever you
Speaker 2: get your audio or video podcasts. You guys can follow
Speaker 2: me across my own socials at Sports Talk Matt. We
Speaker 2: are back after a winning Sunday. In fact, we finally
Speaker 2: had one of these. We have not swept the board
Speaker 2: in a bit. We did that yesterday. We go three
Speaker 2: and oh with a plus money play on Kyle Schwarber.
Speaker 2: More on that trend here. In just one second, we
Speaker 2: get Tampa Bay and Baltimore coming in with the easy over,
Speaker 2: and after the rain, the Padres get the win over
Speaker 2: the Guardians at im As on a wait price.
Speaker 1: So three o eight up over three units to end
Speaker 1: the week. That's good. I'll go do the math.
Speaker 2: I don't know what we did last week, and my
Speaker 2: gut tells me we're probably right almost. If we're down,
Speaker 2: we're down a little. If we're up, we're up a little.
Speaker 2: Pretty much flat. When you get that three and oh
Speaker 2: at the end of the week, that kind of makes
Speaker 2: up for a lot of the nonsense. So it's good
Speaker 2: to be back. The wedding was beautiful, the trip was awesome.
Speaker 2: I had a great, great time. And you know when
Speaker 2: you come back from a wedding weekend, you got to
Speaker 2: get your bearings a little bit and you got to
Speaker 2: kind of shake the cobwebs out and kind of get
Speaker 2: going and going. All right, now, let's let's lock back in.
Speaker 2: So here is kind of what is going to happen
Speaker 2: this week. We're going to do baseball for the beginning
Speaker 2: part of the week. We will end the week again
Speaker 2: with football as we'll get back in a week two
Speaker 2: of the NFL Thursday Friday Saturday as the NFL rolls,
Speaker 2: and then Sunday we'll go back to baseball, most likely
Speaker 2: just because we kind of have to.
Speaker 1: We don't really have a choice in the matter but
Speaker 1: to go ahead and jump in on baseball.
Speaker 2: So that's kind of this week, and then the following
Speaker 2: week we are going to be back to Vegas. I'm
Speaker 2: going out for the Circa Contest weekend for Thursday, Friday Saturday,
Speaker 2: so I'll.
Speaker 1: Be out there doing that.
Speaker 2: And so there will be again the West Coast changeover meeting,
Speaker 2: the overnight posting of the podcast. But that's next week,
Speaker 2: so we'll worry about next week. Next week. Let's focus
Speaker 2: on this week. Let's start here talking a bit more
Speaker 2: about what goes on with the home Run Best Bet tool.
Speaker 1: You guys can go and check this out and.
Speaker 2: Do your own research and kind of figure out what
Speaker 2: this projection looks like. I think it's really a really
Speaker 2: cool tool because it shows that it gives you a
Speaker 2: better against a pitcher matchup that could result either into
Speaker 2: a home run or doubles multiple hits. RBIs hits runs
Speaker 2: and RBIs so bettingpros dot Com slash homers. Bettingpros dot
Speaker 2: Com slash homers.
Speaker 1: Go check it out.
Speaker 2: See what you guys can do with their own research
Speaker 2: to find out who is the top option for today.
Speaker 2: Now I have gone and taken the top option today
Speaker 2: for where we are. Jared Young of the Mets against
Speaker 2: the Padres is a guy who is being projected as
Speaker 2: the number one most likely guy to go deep today.
Speaker 2: Now does that mean he goes deep?
Speaker 1: No?
Speaker 2: Okay again, these are home run props are tough. Okay,
Speaker 2: it's not a lottery ticket, but it's it's it's tough.
Speaker 1: Okay.
Speaker 2: It's not your traditional like this is going to be easy.
Speaker 2: So Walker Buehler is the pitcher on the other side,
Speaker 2: and Walker Buehler has been pretty good in the month
Speaker 2: of August. He's a three point one four ERA. He's
Speaker 2: given up one home run here in the month of August.
Speaker 2: He's only going about four or five or six innings
Speaker 2: though he's not going deep into games at all, seventy
Speaker 2: six ninety eight pitches his last time out in a
Speaker 2: sixth inning performance eleven to two win over the Milwaukee Brewers.
Speaker 2: But Jared Young has been red hot getting hits. Jared
Speaker 2: Young has gone over a half a hit half a
Speaker 2: base in six straight games. Now, if you go back
Speaker 2: to over one and a half total basis, it's five
Speaker 2: and one. He's gone three, three, four to one, two
Speaker 2: and five over his lacks cisc games for total basis.
Speaker 1: So you take the Jared Young.
Speaker 2: Prop and you can go over a half over a
Speaker 2: half a base being a single he cashes. That's like
Speaker 2: one minus one seventy five somewhere in there. But because
Speaker 2: I don't like laying juice like that for us, and
Speaker 2: I don't think we have to do that, I think
Speaker 2: there's an opportunity here if we're going to run the
Speaker 2: possession or run the trend rather and say, okay, we
Speaker 2: like what we're doing. We're five and one doing this
Speaker 2: trend of taking the top option on the home run
Speaker 2: projection tool and going to totalit are going to hits
Speaker 2: runs and RBIs. This is a five star play to
Speaker 2: go over a half. That's not a five star play
Speaker 2: to go over one and a half, but it is
Speaker 2: a plus money play to go over one and a half.
Speaker 2: And I think it's worth taking a shot at it
Speaker 2: to fire on it and come in and go Jared
Speaker 2: Young over one and a half total basis it's plus
Speaker 2: one seventy six. I mean, we got a pretty good
Speaker 2: price in this for one unit, he gets a double.
Speaker 2: That's what happened yesterday to Kyle Schwarber. He started the
Speaker 2: game off with a double and he went over one
Speaker 2: and a half total bases and we're good. So this
Speaker 2: will be Jared Young over one and a half total
Speaker 2: bases again at plus one seventy six. If he goes deep,
Speaker 2: that's tremendous. But I mean it's again home run prought's
Speaker 2: a little more difficult to kind of to project on that.
Speaker 2: So this is a guy who's been hot. You can
Speaker 2: play over half a base if you want, so a
Speaker 2: single will cash it. I played over one and a
Speaker 2: half to get the best price, to get the plus
Speaker 2: money and to take a shot here on a Monday,
Speaker 2: So why not.
Speaker 1: I mean this again, if you.
Speaker 2: Date all the way back to the fifth of Cleveland
Speaker 2: fifth of August against Cleveland, Jerry Young has gone over
Speaker 2: this over a half in every single game except one,
Speaker 2: so that is a total of nine of the last
Speaker 2: ten games he's gone over a half.
Speaker 1: So again, just no matter.
Speaker 2: If you want to play the odds, you want to
Speaker 2: take a shot at a half, take a shot at
Speaker 2: a half.
Speaker 1: It may be a better bet if you.
Speaker 2: Don't mind laying the juice, and you only pay the
Speaker 2: juice when you lose, so you don't pay the juice
Speaker 2: when you win the bet. So Jared Young has been
Speaker 2: a very productive hitter at the plate and gotten on
Speaker 2: base quite a bit here, so Jered Young may be
Speaker 2: the best play for a home run, but I like it.
Speaker 2: Jerry Young over total bases at plus one seventy six
Speaker 2: here today for the Mets up against the Padres. Now
Speaker 2: let's go to the Cubs and the White Sox. Pete
Speaker 2: Crow Armstrong is the top option on the prop bet
Speaker 2: cheat sheet to go over one and a half total
Speaker 2: bases for the game. This is a five star play
Speaker 2: projection is going to three. He is four and three
Speaker 2: over the last seven games going over, but last game
Speaker 2: against Saint Louis he snapped an zero for three streak
Speaker 2: that he was on. But Pete Crow Armstrong, as we know,
Speaker 2: is a very productive hitter. This is a guy, amazingly enough,
Speaker 2: at one point in time he was way back of
Speaker 2: Otani for the MVP in the National League. Now he's
Speaker 2: right there as a great option for the National League.
Speaker 2: You can play over one and a half hits, runs
Speaker 2: and RBIs if you want for this, just depends upon
Speaker 2: the price you want to pay. It's one fifty two,
Speaker 2: one fifty seven, one fifty at most books to play
Speaker 2: over one and a half hits, runs and RBIs for
Speaker 2: Pete Crow Armstrong. If you just go to the total bases,
Speaker 2: it's going to be a cheaper price. Now he needs
Speaker 2: to get more hits obviously on that, because that's a
Speaker 2: guy who hasn't been that hot here with going over
Speaker 2: total bases. He hit a home run yesterday, so he
Speaker 2: got over the total bases of one and a half yesterday,
Speaker 2: but he is that was yesterday right on the sixteenth, Yeah,
Speaker 2: yesterday against the Cardinals, so he had two RBIs, home
Speaker 2: run scored and run. So he flew over hitch runs
Speaker 2: and RBIs there. He flew over total bases as well yesterday.
Speaker 2: But he went oh for four on the three previous games.
Speaker 2: So here against the White Sox a pitching matchup that
Speaker 2: I think he's going to like a lot here against
Speaker 2: the White Sox. You know, obviously the cross town rivalry
Speaker 2: going on. The Cubs are twenty eight and sorry, the
Speaker 2: Cubs are thirty six and twenty six at home. The
Speaker 2: White Sox are twenty eight and thirty four in the road,
Speaker 2: and Luis Castillo's going for the White Sox.
Speaker 1: He has not been good on the road.
Speaker 2: His only road start for the White Sox since being
Speaker 2: traded over for the Mariners, he went four six hits,
Speaker 2: five ironed runs given up, gave up a home run.
Speaker 2: Then he pitched against the Reds at home he went seven, shutout.
Speaker 2: He was great. This is now on the road here
Speaker 2: and his road dra has not been great. Five point
Speaker 2: four nine. He's got two to five record and postmatting
Speaker 2: average two eighty six, So not a bad guy to
Speaker 2: fade here on the road against the Dodgers. In his
Speaker 2: final start up against when he was with Seattle, he
Speaker 2: went five innings, eleven hits, five earned runs. In a
Speaker 2: start against Tampa Bay on the road, he went five innings,
Speaker 2: nine hits, four earned runs. So a pretty good chance
Speaker 2: for PCA here to attack Luis Castillo and out of
Speaker 2: the gate, get a double, get a home run, get
Speaker 2: over one and a half total bases. We're gonna go
Speaker 2: ahead and take it with PCA over one and a
Speaker 2: half total bases at minus one oh six for one
Speaker 2: point zero six units. Now the remaining the remaining bet.
Speaker 2: I don't love the card, okay, I shopped around a
Speaker 2: lot on this. Blake Snell is going for the Dodgers
Speaker 2: up against the Rockies. Blake Snell has been absolutely dominant
Speaker 2: against the dot Against the Rockies last time out in September,
Speaker 2: he pitched six innings, no earned runs. Back on the
Speaker 2: July twenty seventh into twenty four he uh, oh, I'm
Speaker 2: sorry that was July. No, that's September nineteenth. Against twenty
Speaker 2: twenty twenty three, he threw z seven innings, no earned
Speaker 2: runs like he's been really, Blake Snell has been dominant
Speaker 2: against Colorado. We know Colorado's not very good. We know
Speaker 2: the Dodgers are the Dodgers here, and the Dodgers enter
Speaker 2: this losing three of their last four games. Like did
Speaker 2: this Dodger team needs to wake up and going to
Speaker 2: Colorado was a great time to do it. They're twenty
Speaker 2: seven and thirty two on the road. Saguno is on
Speaker 2: the other side here. He's been good.
Speaker 1: He's twelve and five with a four point four to
Speaker 1: three e er.
Speaker 2: If you want to talk about the ace for Colorado,
Speaker 2: you could say he is the ace. The team has
Speaker 2: won four of the last five games pitched by Seguno.
Speaker 2: But I'm taking the Dodgers, Okay, I just I think
Speaker 2: this team has to figure it out and wake up.
Speaker 2: When Blake Snell on the mound, and how dominant Blake
Speaker 2: Snell has been against the Rockies. Blake Snell again, one
Speaker 2: pit one start so far, come off the il six innings,
Speaker 2: one earned runs and a five to four win and
Speaker 2: extras over the Royals for the Dodgers. So first half
Speaker 2: of the parlay, I'm taking the Dodgers over the over
Speaker 2: the Rockies. The second half is we go to my
Speaker 2: guy and you can just if you don't want to
Speaker 2: bet the parlay, you can bet Phillies on the run
Speaker 2: line if you want.
Speaker 1: But it's just home team run line.
Speaker 2: I don't know, I feel like that's a little bit
Speaker 2: of a trap today. Jansen Junk going for the Marlins.
Speaker 2: The Marlins are twenty six and thirty two on the road.
Speaker 2: The Marlins have been absolutely reeling that this series is
Speaker 2: tied at five though five and five each, So rather
Speaker 2: than trying to get created a little creative here with
Speaker 2: Sanchez on the run line and Santa's on the run
Speaker 2: line is not a bad bet. The last four games
Speaker 2: won by the Phillies with Santanel with centres on the
Speaker 2: mound has been one on the run line, seven to
Speaker 2: three over Washington, five to nothing over the Baltimore Orioles,
Speaker 2: eleven to four over the Yankees, ten to seven over
Speaker 2: the Dodgers. Lost his last start to nothing against the
Speaker 2: Saint Louis Cardinals.
Speaker 1: He went six no earned runs.
Speaker 2: But I don't I'm a little bit hesitant just to
Speaker 2: lay it because it's like mice one fifteen, mice one
Speaker 2: twenty to lay the juice and home team laying juice
Speaker 2: on the run line just doesn't really sit well with me.
Speaker 1: So let's just go ahead and.
Speaker 2: Do a two leg money line parlay and go Phillies
Speaker 2: Dodgers money line at minus one oh five.
Speaker 1: It's the first day of the week.
Speaker 2: Not always great to bet parlays, you guys, No, I
Speaker 2: hate betting parlays, but I just think Phillies Dodgers on
Speaker 2: a Monday to get off to a good start here.
Speaker 2: I think both teams will get w's today. You can
Speaker 2: start to get into this. I like doing two leg
Speaker 2: money line parlays as we get later in the year
Speaker 2: with bad baseball teams because frankly, the good teams need
Speaker 2: to win. The bad teams want to lose, so they aren't.
Speaker 2: You know their way out of it, and they know it.
Speaker 2: So let's go Phillies Dodgers' money line two leg parlay
Speaker 2: at mice one oh five. PCA going over one and
Speaker 2: a half total bases at mice one oh six and
Speaker 2: Jared Young going over one and a half total bases
Speaker 2: at plus one seventy six. But again, you can play
Speaker 2: that at over a half a base if you want
Speaker 2: and lay the Juice on that. If you're a little
Speaker 2: bit scared on that, it's mine. One sixty mise one
Speaker 2: seventy on that, I'll go and fire on it. Why not,
Speaker 2: it's a Monday. Let's have some fun. Jared Young over
Speaker 2: one and a half total bases at plus one seventy six.
Speaker 2: My name is Matt Paroti. You guys can follow me
Speaker 2: across all of my socials at Sports Talk Matt every
Speaker 2: morning wherever you guys get your podcasts.
Speaker 1: It is the Daily Juice