Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily
Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,
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Speaker 1: us discuss Washington now, and let us try to get
Speaker 1: out through the week where maybe policy will be committed
Speaker 1: in Washington. There's no one better to talk to than
Speaker 1: the gentle lady from New Orleans. Henrietta Trades joined us
Speaker 1: Beta Partners. Henrietta, You and the rest of the world
Speaker 1: have to get to the wonderful Breeze Brady distraction next weekend.
Speaker 1: There's a small football game in your New Orleans is
Speaker 1: a nation, seriously as a nation can will still be
Speaker 1: standing on Friday to get to that important match. I
Speaker 1: would say, you can't keep New Orleans down. So we'll
Speaker 1: just kink kinkake our way through this and get to
Speaker 1: the end. No matter what happens in d C. We
Speaker 1: will see that game. We will see that game, but
Speaker 1: we've got to get through the game of this political
Speaker 1: crisis as well. Frame out policy makers in Washington. Your
Speaker 1: expertise with the constitutional crisis we face. I think the
Speaker 1: next nine days, as you were reminding me earlier, is
Speaker 1: going to be everything from resignation to the Amendment UM
Speaker 1: going back to the Confederacy, and things that can be
Speaker 1: done to um eject lawmakers who are potentially UM fostering rebellion,
Speaker 1: to impeachment. Certainly that will be going on all the
Speaker 1: way through the twenty and then what we've heard from
Speaker 1: the Democratic leadership in the last a couple of days
Speaker 1: is that we might actually hold over this idea of
Speaker 1: impeachment well into one so that Democrats and some Republicans
Speaker 1: can ensure the President Trump can never run for office again.
Speaker 1: So I don't think the storyline is going to get
Speaker 1: behind us anytime soon. This week will obviously be filled
Speaker 1: with a lot of job and back and forth, but
Speaker 1: the nation will move on to a Biden administration and
Speaker 1: will get there soon enough. Henrietta, help us purse out
Speaker 1: the reality the substance from the drama. I mean, there's
Speaker 1: a lot of drama and there's a lot of reality.
Speaker 1: But what aspects of what we've seen unfold in Washington,
Speaker 1: d C. With the insurrection, with some of the fallout
Speaker 1: from how quickly law enforcement responded has long lasting implications
Speaker 1: for policy. I think the amazing thing about Wednesday of
Speaker 1: last week was that we got the Georgia Senate elections
Speaker 1: and that insurrection at the exact same time. And one
Speaker 1: of the things I noticed even before the insurrection started
Speaker 1: was that Republicans were eager to move on to a
Speaker 1: policy discussion, get away from the sort of cult of
Speaker 1: personality association the Republican Conference currently has with Donald Trump
Speaker 1: and moved to a discussion about policy. And so that
Speaker 1: actually has driven a number of Republican members in both
Speaker 1: the House and Senate, and certainly their lobbyists to say,
Speaker 1: we do want to pass the bill with Joe Biden
Speaker 1: early in one. I don't want to suggest that this
Speaker 1: will be a compa a young moment that will last
Speaker 1: for eternity, but I think we get ninety days here
Speaker 1: for a sixty vote threshold bipartisan bill against ten to
Speaker 1: fifteen Republican votes in the Senate. I'm not really sure
Speaker 1: exactly how many yet in the House, but those are
Speaker 1: members who want to have policy to debate, want to
Speaker 1: be able to move on from the discussion of Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: So I don't I think in the immediate term, which
Speaker 1: is probably the best way to approach the situation right
Speaker 1: now is just day by day, we are going to
Speaker 1: see even more optimism for a sixty vote threshold stimulus
Speaker 1: package right out of the gate and inviided administration that
Speaker 1: Republicans are expecting to work on, not just hoping to
Speaker 1: work on, but really expecting to pass with him. So
Speaker 1: that's the biggest impact, at least for our plans. This
Speaker 1: is key and Henrietta, you phrase that so well, This
Speaker 1: idea that the turmoil that we saw in Washington is
Speaker 1: actually pushing Republicans and Democrats further towards some sort of
Speaker 1: consensus to work on policy, to move forward from what
Speaker 1: they would like to be simply a distraction. How big
Speaker 1: could this stimulus be? Great question. I mean, it depends
Speaker 1: on who you talk to you right now, I think
Speaker 1: Democrats are gonna start with the humongous ask two, three
Speaker 1: or four trillion dollars, as we've discussed in the past,
Speaker 1: Republicans are going to get sticker shock, probably anywhere above
Speaker 1: seven fifty opening salvos from Republican leadership I've spoken to
Speaker 1: have suggested a five billion dollar number, but the reality
Speaker 1: is with Democrats in control, of the House and Senate.
Speaker 1: They're not gonna waste their time on a five billion
Speaker 1: dollar package. So my base case assumption is that at
Speaker 1: the very low end we get something in the seven
Speaker 1: D eight hundred billion dollar range. At the high end,
Speaker 1: maybe at one point eight trillion UM. That's gonna depend
Speaker 1: on the size of any direct payments they want to
Speaker 1: get out. As y'all know, the the payments to individuals
Speaker 1: or any individual side stimulus is expensively just because of
Speaker 1: how many individuals there are that you need to give
Speaker 1: money to. So I don't mean, I don't mean to interrupt,
Speaker 1: but I am because at least that I remember, there
Speaker 1: was a Job's report on Friday, and I understand within
Speaker 1: the original Washington you and everybody else's dealing right now,
Speaker 1: I'm not even sure the politicians are aware of how
Speaker 1: ugly that Job's report was. Do they care? And does
Speaker 1: it create a new urgency around the real crises plural
Speaker 1: that we have. That's exactly the narrative I think that's important.
Speaker 1: Urgency and crisis. There's two words that you use are
Speaker 1: going to propel this package forward. Um. It's beneficial on
Speaker 1: every single level. Both the need an urgency basis to
Speaker 1: call this a crisis. The jobs report, the COVID deaths,
Speaker 1: the shutdowns we're saying nationwide, UM, the worst hospitalization rates
Speaker 1: we've seen thus far, UM, the crisis of unemployment obviously
Speaker 1: brought to the fore by the long term unemployed and
Speaker 1: the most recent jobs number. And the benefit of a
Speaker 1: crisis and this urgency that feeds yourself is that you
Speaker 1: don't have to pay for us. And that is the
Speaker 1: path of East resistance to getting sixty votes. So all
Speaker 1: that helps. One final question, Henrietta, does it matter to you,
Speaker 1: as we're talking with a number of our guests this morning,
Speaker 1: to see Republicans become in dependence Ala Murkowski of Alaska?
Speaker 1: That is h humongous. I mean Senators Murkowski, Collins, Romney,
Speaker 1: Ben Sass. Those are members who could potentially split the
Speaker 1: difference between a fifty Republican Democratic majority split in the
Speaker 1: Senate and really give Democrats a functioning majority. That's what
Speaker 1: we saw last time in two thousand and one when
Speaker 1: this happened, it took until May for Republican to defect
Speaker 1: the Independent Conference and caucus with Democrats. If that happens, um,
Speaker 1: that really smooths our path to another Reconciliation bill later on.
Speaker 1: This should be more stimulus, Henrietta, thank you so much,
Speaker 1: Tres Veta Partners. There's a question that the fraud that
Speaker 1: we're seeing come off the top in some stocks and
Speaker 1: we're seeing commensurate moves within the credit space. It does
Speaker 1: not seem like it. But perhaps there is not the
Speaker 1: same froth. This is one of the big existential questions
Speaker 1: facing people searching for income, Brian Weinstein, among them Morgan
Speaker 1: Stanley Investment Management, head of Global fixed Income joining us Now, Brian,
Speaker 1: are you seeing a similar type of froththiness and aspects
Speaker 1: of the credit market as people point to in aspects
Speaker 1: of equities. Man, after listening to you guys the last
Speaker 1: few minutes, I feel like we're so we're so boring,
Speaker 1: um sick be income has some frofit it I like
Speaker 1: anything else that it's moved up, and it's been a
Speaker 1: straight line, but nothing really parabolic, right. I think it's
Speaker 1: been a bit more rational, a bit more slow, led
Speaker 1: by the FED, led by low rates, and we've seen
Speaker 1: small reversals that in real yields and in regular interest rates,
Speaker 1: and but Prence Fed are still type people are still
Speaker 1: looking for income. You can't get it. So I feel
Speaker 1: like there is froth, but it doesn't compare in the
Speaker 1: same way to the things that you guys were just discussing.
Speaker 1: Does that affect your investment, this thesis, this idea that
Speaker 1: you're not seeing the same froththiness. So that's a green
Speaker 1: light to continue to go deeper into risk and credit,
Speaker 1: you know, yes, yes and no. I mean certainly investors
Speaker 1: are speaking with their whilets and they're moving to risk
Speaker 1: your assets because he flows into emerging market, flows into
Speaker 1: things with income like high yield and even bank loans,
Speaker 1: and what it makes us want to do to be
Speaker 1: a little bit more slow and steady. I mean pick
Speaker 1: income is supposed to be a bit more boring than
Speaker 1: than than bitcoin or equities. UM. So what we're doing
Speaker 1: is we're not changing our views based on these manic
Speaker 1: market moves, and we're trying to take it into accounty
Speaker 1: the impact of the historical events we're seeing. Right, we
Speaker 1: don't want to be over overcompetent, but we think more
Speaker 1: stimulus is coming. Um. We obviously have the Democrats coming, um,
Speaker 1: so have maybe spead the higher taxes, So all those
Speaker 1: things are going to play into our into our thought
Speaker 1: but it's flowing to stay. Brian, you talk in your
Speaker 1: research note of winners in losers. If we go back
Speaker 1: to single digit returns and even bond returns of say
Speaker 1: four or five, six, seven percent, how do you parse
Speaker 1: a winner to get out to a double digit return
Speaker 1: of ten? You have double digit returns and pick sncome
Speaker 1: keep getting keep getting harder, Um, And so I think
Speaker 1: what you do is you stick to your fundamental research. Right.
Speaker 1: There are all kinds of sectors that have been really
Speaker 1: beaten up, but by this emming energy for the last
Speaker 1: couple of years for sure than things like gaming and
Speaker 1: other other places where the pandemic is hit. So as
Speaker 1: an active manager, it helps, I think to be slow
Speaker 1: and steady. We're not going to get double digit returns
Speaker 1: in a week and a month. You talk about, you know,
Speaker 1: things a day or and over a weekend. You know
Speaker 1: it's it's going to take I think a bit of
Speaker 1: a longer time, and you'll have to get thematic um
Speaker 1: active selection right as opposed to just owning credit or
Speaker 1: just owning high yield. That's not going to get you there.
Speaker 1: I know you're not doing technical analysis, but what level
Speaker 1: of the tenure yield up price lower is a trip point,
Speaker 1: is a Weinstein moment where you say, oops, bonds lower.
Speaker 1: I think we're really close. Um. I was surprised actually,
Speaker 1: and it wasn't a big move, but over as got
Speaker 1: over one ten that people didn't get more nervous. Tom
Speaker 1: I would say that fifty range if you don't get
Speaker 1: the steed coming right out, and then they probably won't
Speaker 1: if that doesn't come right out and complain about it. Um,
Speaker 1: I think that's where people get nervous, because I moved
Speaker 1: back towards two percent um and you probably do have
Speaker 1: to have the central banks doing some more unnatural things
Speaker 1: to count the rate um now with impacts on the dollar,
Speaker 1: impacts on on psyche and obviously on valuation. So but
Speaker 1: a lot of people do expect the Fed to jump in, right,
Speaker 1: I mean you're saying that the Fed would have to,
Speaker 1: but they would because otherwise you would get some sort
Speaker 1: of disruption in credit markets and financial conditions. When you
Speaker 1: talk about the defense of boring bonds, this idea that
Speaker 1: there's almost this defensiveness in your discussion. It's not that exciting.
Speaker 1: But we're stolid, we're steady, we're a reliable investment. Do
Speaker 1: you see credit as being sustained even with a rise
Speaker 1: of yields to fifty and the benchmark rate. Yes, and
Speaker 1: we're sure there'll be some bumps along the way, right,
Speaker 1: this will not continue to be a straight line tighter,
Speaker 1: but we do think you'll see money coming in higher
Speaker 1: deals to do. Think credit um is on decent footing.
Speaker 1: And as you say, um, you have to stad at
Speaker 1: your back somewhere out there, and you have the government
Speaker 1: at your back more stimulus somewhere out there. So again
Speaker 1: it won't be the double digit return corporate year um.
Speaker 1: But if you do need a couple of percent. As
Speaker 1: you look in some of these sectors am high yield
Speaker 1: loans um that still have still have some yield, you
Speaker 1: can still do okay, even if you'll move up a
Speaker 1: little bit UM And as you say, the stead will
Speaker 1: step in at some point. We're in the world. Is
Speaker 1: the best value right now, Brian? Probably in emerging market
Speaker 1: still and we've seen the flows in that direction. Things
Speaker 1: have been it from a week or dollar um. That's
Speaker 1: probably just still this thing that has the If the
Speaker 1: set does step then where's the release valve, Probably in
Speaker 1: the in the dollar weakening. So yeah, is a is
Speaker 1: a good spot. Um, Hi yield that down in credit
Speaker 1: again when you can do your homework and it's not
Speaker 1: just how yeld data, it's something you know, interesting and unique. Um,
Speaker 1: those things with yield I think are still places you
Speaker 1: want to go. Bryan Weinstein, thank you so much. From
Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley Investment Management. We appreciate your time to surveillance.
Speaker 1: Keeps a lovely ship's bill over by the deak where
Speaker 1: they all sit, and every time I said go to cash,
Speaker 1: they ring the bell. The bell has been ringing a
Speaker 1: lot over the last three years. We talked about people
Speaker 1: to get bonds right that have gotten right low yields.
Speaker 1: We talk about people who get the equity markets right.
Speaker 1: But in the world of equities, no one has consistently
Speaker 1: done it better. And Benjamin Laylor at HSBC at Tower
Speaker 1: Hudson's as well, and not only did he nail two
Speaker 1: years ago, did he nail last year, but this year
Speaker 1: he continues the enthusiasm. Ben Laylor, thank you so much
Speaker 1: for joining us. Is all that went on last week
Speaker 1: shaking your bull conviction? Um? I don't think so. I mean,
Speaker 1: obviously what went on last week was shocking in sort
Speaker 1: of very many ways, but I guess the outline for
Speaker 1: this year is really unchanged. I mean, we are looking at,
Speaker 1: I think, just a historic growth year where expectations frankly
Speaker 1: are still too low, both for GDP growth and for
Speaker 1: ernsings growth. And I think that's going to be really
Speaker 1: what's going to drive the surprise, the upside surprise for
Speaker 1: this year, and and it's going to come against the
Speaker 1: backdrop of I think still very benevolence sort of policy
Speaker 1: support UM, and I think that's going to allow evaluations
Speaker 1: to come down a little bit but still remain much
Speaker 1: higher than they have been historically. And that's really I
Speaker 1: think the combination that you need to focus on for
Speaker 1: this year. I mean that I think we're setting ourselves
Speaker 1: up for a very very rare sort of third year
Speaker 1: of consecutive strong equity game. And so you've you've you've
Speaker 1: seen it. Count on three fingers how many times you've
Speaker 1: seen over the last fifty or sixty years that people
Speaker 1: are may be right to be cautious yet. But I
Speaker 1: think that I think that outlook is is what we're
Speaker 1: playing for here, and I actually probably be a bit
Speaker 1: better about it now than I did. UM. You know,
Speaker 1: maybe not because of last week, but certainly over the
Speaker 1: last a couple of weeks, I think the outlook has
Speaker 1: probably firmed up. Ben, What's so important here is along
Speaker 1: the way there's a nuance of sectors. Is this the
Speaker 1: blunt instrument of a market just lifting or tell us
Speaker 1: your sector nuance, the distinctions between two years ago one
Speaker 1: years ago in your sector allocation? Now, yes, as I
Speaker 1: would sort of sectors and countries. I mean, I think
Speaker 1: you definitely get paid to. I mean I prefer to
Speaker 1: call it out sort of catch up of these sort
Speaker 1: of value cyclical sectors and also international market rather than
Speaker 1: a rotation, because I think everything is going up. I
Speaker 1: just think this sort of value cyclical and international markets
Speaker 1: are probably going up a bit more than the sort
Speaker 1: of winners of last year. But I do think everything's
Speaker 1: going up um and and the it's a very different environment.
Speaker 1: I mean, we're I think right now you should be
Speaker 1: reaching for risk, you should be reaching for growth. M
Speaker 1: In many ways, that's sort of the opposite of last year.
Speaker 1: So we're you know, very focused on places that you
Speaker 1: know have um you know, value and cyclicals are probably
Speaker 1: going to grow three to four times more than the
Speaker 1: sort of winners of last year. This year and you're
Speaker 1: paying third lower valuations. I mean that's basically I think
Speaker 1: the outlook for this year. So you know, where do
Speaker 1: I get that most operating leverage to this, to this
Speaker 1: environment of higher GDP growth on a half bond fields. Um,
Speaker 1: it's it's industrials, it's small cap, it's financials, it's it's
Speaker 1: the emerging market, it's a bit of Europe. Um. This
Speaker 1: is where I think that the most unt I mean
Speaker 1: part of make to make this clear, Ben Laylor's law
Speaker 1: on the Cleveland Browns exactly talk about an add of
Speaker 1: the odd of the money call there, Ben, you know,
Speaker 1: at some point, well, we're about to go into the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter earning season here, Ben, and at some point
Speaker 1: earnings have to matter. Can't just be the fed flooding
Speaker 1: in the market with liquidity. What's your earnings outlook here
Speaker 1: for one and maybe into next year? Yeah, So I
Speaker 1: completely agree with that. I mean a fourth quarter, you know,
Speaker 1: earnings do need to sort of keep delivering, and and
Speaker 1: I think they sort of have been right. I Mean,
Speaker 1: we've just come off two quarters of the biggest earnings
Speaker 1: beats you've you've ever seen in recent history. Um, And
Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a sort of
Speaker 1: another quarter where you see some very strong earnings Beach
Speaker 1: one and two. Who's been leading those speech, It's exactly
Speaker 1: those sectors, um, that I've just been sort of talking about.
Speaker 1: It's um, it's been those most sort of cytroical sectors
Speaker 1: with the most depressed earnings. So that's what I'm looking
Speaker 1: for for this quarter, that sort of narrative to continue
Speaker 1: of just more earnings beat driving further earnings sort of
Speaker 1: upgrades and those beat coming out of these most sort
Speaker 1: of depressed sectors. But to ance your question to you know,
Speaker 1: earnings outlook for next year of sorry for this year.
Speaker 1: I just have to get used to saying that in
Speaker 1: the US, UM, the US that he was sent internationally,
Speaker 1: and I think there's probably UM, I think when all
Speaker 1: this sad and done, those numbers are going to be
Speaker 1: about at least ten percent too low across the board.
Speaker 1: When you look back historically, UM, you know, very rarely
Speaker 1: the analysts sort of low ball earnings. But when they do,
Speaker 1: it's either because we're coming out of a recession or
Speaker 1: it's because we're somewhere along the line we're getting sort
Speaker 1: of more fiscal stimulus be being poured into the market,
Speaker 1: and this year we have got both of those things,
Speaker 1: and potentially we're about to getting even you know another
Speaker 1: another slug of fiscal expansion. So I think earnings are
Speaker 1: fas too low. Um, and you know you CONSERNSUS for
Speaker 1: US this year when all of a sudden done, I
Speaker 1: think we're probably close to the thirty alright. So Ben,
Speaker 1: you've taken your career kind of looking at this global
Speaker 1: this equity business on a global scale, on globally rate.
Speaker 1: Here as we start, where do you see some of
Speaker 1: the best opportunities on a global outlook basis? Yeah, So,
Speaker 1: as I say, I mean we are definitely looking at
Speaker 1: you know, assets which should be deeply out of favor
Speaker 1: for the last decade or so. Um, you know, internationals
Speaker 1: one and sort of value stroke cyclicals is another one.
Speaker 1: I mean those two together have probably underperformed, um you
Speaker 1: know growth from the US by you know, over two
Speaker 1: percentage points over the last decade. So this I think
Speaker 1: is the change, um, both on the value six of
Speaker 1: your side, also at your point on the international side. UM.
Speaker 1: So i'd be looking at I'd be looking at the
Speaker 1: m you know specifically, Um, you know, the more cyclical
Speaker 1: bits of em sort of Latin semir frontier market, basically
Speaker 1: the bit that didn't do well last year, which is
Speaker 1: really all about China and and bits from Europe, especially
Speaker 1: sort of domestic cyclical Europe financials in Europe. Until very recently,
Speaker 1: those were pretty much the cheapest, most out of favor,
Speaker 1: most paided, uh sort of segments. Um, that's where i'd
Speaker 1: be looking. I mean, I guess the sort of caveat um,
Speaker 1: and I would say, what do you get for that?
Speaker 1: You basically get twice the growth for those segments that
Speaker 1: you do in the US, and you're basically only paying
Speaker 1: a third less in terms of in terms of evaluation.
Speaker 1: So that's why I think it's worth looking, um, you know,
Speaker 1: looking internationally, I guess the one caveat is is currencies. Um,
Speaker 1: Euro's obviously been strengthening, Yen's obviously been strengthening. And I
Speaker 1: was just gonna say, that's that's a pretty big headwin
Speaker 1: for some of these companies, which which are you know,
Speaker 1: big international players. Um, so sort of just there are
Speaker 1: some caveats, but what if you don't get that consensus.
Speaker 1: Mark McCormick was from t D Securities and Ben Laidler.
Speaker 1: I mean Marcus really pushed it against consensus. He's got
Speaker 1: your equity optimism, your optimism on recovery through all of
Speaker 1: these challenges, and he says, the great unspoken could be
Speaker 1: strong dour this year. What do the equity markets do
Speaker 1: if we get a Mark mccormickdollar. Yeah, I mean I
Speaker 1: think that that that would clearly be negative. I mean
Speaker 1: I'm not looking for big, significant dollar weakness from here.
Speaker 1: I mean you've actually had a lot. I'll you know,
Speaker 1: I think markets can do well with sort of dollar stabilization,
Speaker 1: and I'm not and I'm not sure I see the
Speaker 1: ingredient for you know, meaningfully stronger dollar. Um. But but again, um,
Speaker 1: the you know, going actually initial point. I mean, if
Speaker 1: we don't get that bigning surprise and clearly we're gonna
Speaker 1: make a lot, we're just gonna we're gonna make less money.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think you're, you know, you're looking us
Speaker 1: sort of flatish US year at that point. You know,
Speaker 1: markets do you know, obviously do a pretty good job
Speaker 1: of pricing things in ahead of time, which is why
Speaker 1: you've very rarely se that sort of third year of
Speaker 1: strong gains. So I think it probably turns um, you know,
Speaker 1: a pretty strong year into a plast this year. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure it completely derails it. Um, you know, only
Speaker 1: growth is still you know, still a big number. And
Speaker 1: I think more importantly, I think we begin to focus
Speaker 1: spent more on on you know, actual actually next year
Speaker 1: at some point where I still think you're going to
Speaker 1: see um, you know, I sort of flow through from
Speaker 1: this year into next year and still decent earnings at
Speaker 1: that point and a forbearance and and sort of reasonably
Speaker 1: reasonable forbearance and the bed which I think will support valuations.
Speaker 1: Benjo and Lee lu thank you so much. Terror Hud
Speaker 1: sitting here on optimism within the equity marketing, Well, there
Speaker 1: are financials, there are investments as well. There's also, of
Speaker 1: course a constitutional crisis in Washington. For more than anything,
Speaker 1: we're all living in the pandemic, living the reality of
Speaker 1: what we are going to do. Is Katie Peess already
Speaker 1: out of the Johns Hopkins University system at Adream Health Charlotte,
Speaker 1: North Carolina, and not so much in the trenches of
Speaker 1: what we're doing, but in the hey, we've got to
Speaker 1: get this done. Of what we're doing in vaccination, Kate
Speaker 1: Pess already, what is your best practice right now to
Speaker 1: ramp up our vaccination programs. Yes, certainly you all were
Speaker 1: just talking about, you know, transitioning testing sites larger arenas
Speaker 1: into vaccination sites. I do think the more people we
Speaker 1: can get vaccinated, you know, as soon as possible as
Speaker 1: supply allows, and making sure that we're prioritizing those at
Speaker 1: higher risks so that we get the most um kind
Speaker 1: of impact from protecting the people that may have higher
Speaker 1: likelihood of possibility. Is money and funding a constraint? Are
Speaker 1: you limited or is Mount Scion, New York or Cedars
Speaker 1: Sinai out in l A? Are you people limited by
Speaker 1: the budgeting of the last mile of vaccination? You know,
Speaker 1: the conversations I've been a part of. Budgeting isn't as
Speaker 1: much of an issue. Certainly, the things are all very expensive.
Speaker 1: It's how do we functionally get it done and deal
Speaker 1: with the financial consequences later. Certainly, you know, tremendous work needed,
Speaker 1: tremendous people resources needed to make that happen. Is there
Speaker 1: a skill to giving a vaccine? My skill is to
Speaker 1: hold somebody's hand because I know it's going to hurt
Speaker 1: so much. I'm kidding folks, But is there a skill?
Speaker 1: Is there a skill to giving a shot. So the
Speaker 1: actual functionality of giving a shot can be done by
Speaker 1: you know, medical professionals at different levels. You do, and
Speaker 1: on the off chance that there is a reaction to
Speaker 1: the vaccine, need to have people able to respond quickly
Speaker 1: if someone has a reaction. So you do need medical
Speaker 1: professionals there. You can't just be yeah. I mean, I
Speaker 1: remember Katie the leap from touch to cycling out to
Speaker 1: seto menafin, and you know, there was some real doubt
Speaker 1: about all these modern fancy antibiotics. What have you learned
Speaker 1: in a number of weeks about our confidence in having
Speaker 1: these vaccines both shots? Yeah, so certainly we have an
Speaker 1: increase in people's confidence as more and more people get vaccine.
Speaker 1: Having that, we still have a huge, huge, huge way
Speaker 1: to go to get the protection our community needs. Well,
Speaker 1: we got a huge way to go. But do we
Speaker 1: do that with an increasing confidence or we just sort
Speaker 1: of there and and we have to get it done.
Speaker 1: And do you do you suggest that there'll be societal
Speaker 1: constraints that will force vaccination. Um, you know, I think
Speaker 1: it's unlikely as far as mandatory vaccination. Is that kind
Speaker 1: of what you're saying, like an airline says you're not
Speaker 1: getting on board if you don't have a vaccine. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so certainly I think private entities may go that route
Speaker 1: and specifically kind of travel related you know, requiring proof
Speaker 1: of vaccination to get on a plane and go to
Speaker 1: certain areas. Certainly I think that's possible. You know, at
Speaker 1: the governmental level, I think less likely, at least for
Speaker 1: a very long time. UM that will happen. The timeline
Speaker 1: if you sophisticated m R n A vaccines is you know,
Speaker 1: for anybody to study this and a pro like you
Speaker 1: are a hack like me. It's really really something. How
Speaker 1: close are we to what Peter Hotez of Baylor College
Speaker 1: of Medicine talks about, which is a low cost traditional
Speaker 1: vaccine to really get this done? Where are we in that? Yes,
Speaker 1: certainly getting closer by the day. So the MR and
Speaker 1: A story is amazing and happened safely and rapidly over
Speaker 1: a very short period of time. But that doesn't mean
Speaker 1: that other vaccine candidates, traditional vaccine candidates like you mentioned,
Speaker 1: weren't being worked on at the same time. So more
Speaker 1: and more UM research studies are going on to get
Speaker 1: the level of data to make sure that type of
Speaker 1: vaccine is protective, and you know, the cost the handling
Speaker 1: of the current MR and A vaccines are hugely, hugely
Speaker 1: kind of blocking getting them out. So as we get
Speaker 1: these more, more of these candidates that are more easily
Speaker 1: usable and distributable UM out. It's it's hugely important. There's
Speaker 1: a ton of work going on to make that happen.
Speaker 1: Do you envision the Charlotte Charlotte, North Carolina, folks, is
Speaker 1: Charlotte Convention Center being used as the vaccine site? Is
Speaker 1: that where we're heading? You know, certainly the Health Department
Speaker 1: is already using um beau Jangles Coliseum to vaccinate people.
Speaker 1: You know, I do think we are going to need
Speaker 1: larger venues to get the volume of people vaccinated that
Speaker 1: we need. That's going to mean private healthcare, you know,
Speaker 1: public Health Department, all groups kind of working together to
Speaker 1: make that happen. What have you learned about the shock?
Speaker 1: I mean, so many people are concerned about the shock,
Speaker 1: and there's this report and that report one out of
Speaker 1: a million, one out of a hundred thousand, whatever those
Speaker 1: numbers are. Are those numbers contained and appropriate or do
Speaker 1: you have any concern about the research on shock? Yeah?
Speaker 1: So certainly, the numbers have continued to be low of
Speaker 1: people that have anaphylactic shock or shock like reactions following
Speaker 1: the vaccine, which is reassuring as we go out to
Speaker 1: larger and larger groups of people. UM, certainly, you know,
Speaker 1: we need to continue to monitor, but you know, those
Speaker 1: I would just re enforce that those numbers do stay
Speaker 1: low and happen in a very small number of people.
Speaker 1: In the vast majority of people do just fine after
Speaker 1: the first dose and the second the second dose, what
Speaker 1: does the second dose do? I really haven't seen a
Speaker 1: good article on this. I mean, you know, in the
Speaker 1: old days, folks, we had booster shots. Is that what
Speaker 1: this is. It's just a booster really, it is essentially
Speaker 1: acting like a booster shot, so to kind of the
Speaker 1: initial ones kind of priming your immune system, your protective system,
Speaker 1: and then the second dose UM kicks it up further
Speaker 1: to hopefully get longer duration of protection, higher level of protection.
Speaker 1: But with that we do see some more side effects
Speaker 1: as far as arm paining, fevers, feeling kind of crummy,
Speaker 1: especially in kind fifty five after that second shot. So
Speaker 1: people just need to be prepared for that. Dr Pess already,
Speaker 1: thank you, so much, greatly greatly appreciate it with Adriam
Speaker 1: Health directors. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.
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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio