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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Daily

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Speaker 1: we bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Let

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Speaker 1: us discuss Washington now, and let us try to get

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Speaker 1: out through the week where maybe policy will be committed

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Speaker 1: in Washington. There's no one better to talk to than

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Speaker 1: the gentle lady from New Orleans. Henrietta Trades joined us

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Speaker 1: Beta Partners. Henrietta, You and the rest of the world

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Speaker 1: have to get to the wonderful Breeze Brady distraction next weekend.

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Speaker 1: There's a small football game in your New Orleans is

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Speaker 1: a nation, seriously as a nation can will still be

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Speaker 1: standing on Friday to get to that important match. I

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Speaker 1: would say, you can't keep New Orleans down. So we'll

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Speaker 1: just kink kinkake our way through this and get to

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Speaker 1: the end. No matter what happens in d C. We

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Speaker 1: will see that game. We will see that game, but

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Speaker 1: we've got to get through the game of this political

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Speaker 1: crisis as well. Frame out policy makers in Washington. Your

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Speaker 1: expertise with the constitutional crisis we face. I think the

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Speaker 1: next nine days, as you were reminding me earlier, is

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Speaker 1: going to be everything from resignation to the Amendment UM

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Speaker 1: going back to the Confederacy, and things that can be

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Speaker 1: done to um eject lawmakers who are potentially UM fostering rebellion,

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Speaker 1: to impeachment. Certainly that will be going on all the

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Speaker 1: way through the twenty and then what we've heard from

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Speaker 1: the Democratic leadership in the last a couple of days

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Speaker 1: is that we might actually hold over this idea of

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Speaker 1: impeachment well into one so that Democrats and some Republicans

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Speaker 1: can ensure the President Trump can never run for office again.

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Speaker 1: So I don't think the storyline is going to get

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Speaker 1: behind us anytime soon. This week will obviously be filled

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Speaker 1: with a lot of job and back and forth, but

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Speaker 1: the nation will move on to a Biden administration and

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Speaker 1: will get there soon enough. Henrietta, help us purse out

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Speaker 1: the reality the substance from the drama. I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of drama and there's a lot of reality.

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Speaker 1: But what aspects of what we've seen unfold in Washington,

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Speaker 1: d C. With the insurrection, with some of the fallout

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Speaker 1: from how quickly law enforcement responded has long lasting implications

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Speaker 1: for policy. I think the amazing thing about Wednesday of

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Speaker 1: last week was that we got the Georgia Senate elections

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Speaker 1: and that insurrection at the exact same time. And one

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Speaker 1: of the things I noticed even before the insurrection started

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Speaker 1: was that Republicans were eager to move on to a

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Speaker 1: policy discussion, get away from the sort of cult of

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Speaker 1: personality association the Republican Conference currently has with Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: and moved to a discussion about policy. And so that

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Speaker 1: actually has driven a number of Republican members in both

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Speaker 1: the House and Senate, and certainly their lobbyists to say,

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Speaker 1: we do want to pass the bill with Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: early in one. I don't want to suggest that this

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Speaker 1: will be a compa a young moment that will last

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Speaker 1: for eternity, but I think we get ninety days here

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Speaker 1: for a sixty vote threshold bipartisan bill against ten to

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Speaker 1: fifteen Republican votes in the Senate. I'm not really sure

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Speaker 1: exactly how many yet in the House, but those are

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Speaker 1: members who want to have policy to debate, want to

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Speaker 1: be able to move on from the discussion of Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: So I don't I think in the immediate term, which

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Speaker 1: is probably the best way to approach the situation right

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Speaker 1: now is just day by day, we are going to

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Speaker 1: see even more optimism for a sixty vote threshold stimulus

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Speaker 1: package right out of the gate and inviided administration that

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Speaker 1: Republicans are expecting to work on, not just hoping to

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Speaker 1: work on, but really expecting to pass with him. So

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Speaker 1: that's the biggest impact, at least for our plans. This

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Speaker 1: is key and Henrietta, you phrase that so well, This

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Speaker 1: idea that the turmoil that we saw in Washington is

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Speaker 1: actually pushing Republicans and Democrats further towards some sort of

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Speaker 1: consensus to work on policy, to move forward from what

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Speaker 1: they would like to be simply a distraction. How big

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Speaker 1: could this stimulus be? Great question. I mean, it depends

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Speaker 1: on who you talk to you right now, I think

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Speaker 1: Democrats are gonna start with the humongous ask two, three

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Speaker 1: or four trillion dollars, as we've discussed in the past,

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Speaker 1: Republicans are going to get sticker shock, probably anywhere above

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Speaker 1: seven fifty opening salvos from Republican leadership I've spoken to

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Speaker 1: have suggested a five billion dollar number, but the reality

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Speaker 1: is with Democrats in control, of the House and Senate.

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Speaker 1: They're not gonna waste their time on a five billion

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Speaker 1: dollar package. So my base case assumption is that at

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Speaker 1: the very low end we get something in the seven

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Speaker 1: D eight hundred billion dollar range. At the high end,

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Speaker 1: maybe at one point eight trillion UM. That's gonna depend

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Speaker 1: on the size of any direct payments they want to

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Speaker 1: get out. As y'all know, the the payments to individuals

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Speaker 1: or any individual side stimulus is expensively just because of

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Speaker 1: how many individuals there are that you need to give

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Speaker 1: money to. So I don't mean, I don't mean to interrupt,

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Speaker 1: but I am because at least that I remember, there

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Speaker 1: was a Job's report on Friday, and I understand within

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Speaker 1: the original Washington you and everybody else's dealing right now,

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Speaker 1: I'm not even sure the politicians are aware of how

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Speaker 1: ugly that Job's report was. Do they care? And does

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Speaker 1: it create a new urgency around the real crises plural

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Speaker 1: that we have. That's exactly the narrative I think that's important.

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Speaker 1: Urgency and crisis. There's two words that you use are

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Speaker 1: going to propel this package forward. Um. It's beneficial on

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Speaker 1: every single level. Both the need an urgency basis to

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Speaker 1: call this a crisis. The jobs report, the COVID deaths,

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Speaker 1: the shutdowns we're saying nationwide, UM, the worst hospitalization rates

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Speaker 1: we've seen thus far, UM, the crisis of unemployment obviously

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Speaker 1: brought to the fore by the long term unemployed and

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Speaker 1: the most recent jobs number. And the benefit of a

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Speaker 1: crisis and this urgency that feeds yourself is that you

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Speaker 1: don't have to pay for us. And that is the

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Speaker 1: path of East resistance to getting sixty votes. So all

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Speaker 1: that helps. One final question, Henrietta, does it matter to you,

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Speaker 1: as we're talking with a number of our guests this morning,

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Speaker 1: to see Republicans become in dependence Ala Murkowski of Alaska?

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Speaker 1: That is h humongous. I mean Senators Murkowski, Collins, Romney,

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Speaker 1: Ben Sass. Those are members who could potentially split the

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Speaker 1: difference between a fifty Republican Democratic majority split in the

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Speaker 1: Senate and really give Democrats a functioning majority. That's what

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Speaker 1: we saw last time in two thousand and one when

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Speaker 1: this happened, it took until May for Republican to defect

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Speaker 1: the Independent Conference and caucus with Democrats. If that happens, um,

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Speaker 1: that really smooths our path to another Reconciliation bill later on.

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Speaker 1: This should be more stimulus, Henrietta, thank you so much,

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Speaker 1: Tres Veta Partners. There's a question that the fraud that

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Speaker 1: we're seeing come off the top in some stocks and

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Speaker 1: we're seeing commensurate moves within the credit space. It does

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Speaker 1: not seem like it. But perhaps there is not the

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Speaker 1: same froth. This is one of the big existential questions

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Speaker 1: facing people searching for income, Brian Weinstein, among them Morgan

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Speaker 1: Stanley Investment Management, head of Global fixed Income joining us Now, Brian,

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Speaker 1: are you seeing a similar type of froththiness and aspects

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Speaker 1: of the credit market as people point to in aspects

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Speaker 1: of equities. Man, after listening to you guys the last

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Speaker 1: few minutes, I feel like we're so we're so boring,

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Speaker 1: um sick be income has some frofit it I like

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Speaker 1: anything else that it's moved up, and it's been a

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Speaker 1: straight line, but nothing really parabolic, right. I think it's

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Speaker 1: been a bit more rational, a bit more slow, led

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Speaker 1: by the FED, led by low rates, and we've seen

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Speaker 1: small reversals that in real yields and in regular interest rates,

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Speaker 1: and but Prence Fed are still type people are still

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Speaker 1: looking for income. You can't get it. So I feel

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Speaker 1: like there is froth, but it doesn't compare in the

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Speaker 1: same way to the things that you guys were just discussing.

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Speaker 1: Does that affect your investment, this thesis, this idea that

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Speaker 1: you're not seeing the same froththiness. So that's a green

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Speaker 1: light to continue to go deeper into risk and credit,

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Speaker 1: you know, yes, yes and no. I mean certainly investors

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Speaker 1: are speaking with their whilets and they're moving to risk

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Speaker 1: your assets because he flows into emerging market, flows into

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Speaker 1: things with income like high yield and even bank loans,

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Speaker 1: and what it makes us want to do to be

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Speaker 1: a little bit more slow and steady. I mean pick

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Speaker 1: income is supposed to be a bit more boring than

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Speaker 1: than than bitcoin or equities. UM. So what we're doing

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Speaker 1: is we're not changing our views based on these manic

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Speaker 1: market moves, and we're trying to take it into accounty

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Speaker 1: the impact of the historical events we're seeing. Right, we

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Speaker 1: don't want to be over overcompetent, but we think more

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Speaker 1: stimulus is coming. Um. We obviously have the Democrats coming, um,

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Speaker 1: so have maybe spead the higher taxes, So all those

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Speaker 1: things are going to play into our into our thought

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Speaker 1: but it's flowing to stay. Brian, you talk in your

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Speaker 1: research note of winners in losers. If we go back

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Speaker 1: to single digit returns and even bond returns of say

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Speaker 1: four or five, six, seven percent, how do you parse

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Speaker 1: a winner to get out to a double digit return

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Speaker 1: of ten? You have double digit returns and pick sncome

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Speaker 1: keep getting keep getting harder, Um, And so I think

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Speaker 1: what you do is you stick to your fundamental research. Right.

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Speaker 1: There are all kinds of sectors that have been really

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Speaker 1: beaten up, but by this emming energy for the last

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Speaker 1: couple of years for sure than things like gaming and

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Speaker 1: other other places where the pandemic is hit. So as

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Speaker 1: an active manager, it helps, I think to be slow

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Speaker 1: and steady. We're not going to get double digit returns

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Speaker 1: in a week and a month. You talk about, you know,

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Speaker 1: things a day or and over a weekend. You know

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Speaker 1: it's it's going to take I think a bit of

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Speaker 1: a longer time, and you'll have to get thematic um

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Speaker 1: active selection right as opposed to just owning credit or

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Speaker 1: just owning high yield. That's not going to get you there.

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Speaker 1: I know you're not doing technical analysis, but what level

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Speaker 1: of the tenure yield up price lower is a trip point,

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Speaker 1: is a Weinstein moment where you say, oops, bonds lower.

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Speaker 1: I think we're really close. Um. I was surprised actually,

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Speaker 1: and it wasn't a big move, but over as got

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Speaker 1: over one ten that people didn't get more nervous. Tom

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Speaker 1: I would say that fifty range if you don't get

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Speaker 1: the steed coming right out, and then they probably won't

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Speaker 1: if that doesn't come right out and complain about it. Um,

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Speaker 1: I think that's where people get nervous, because I moved

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Speaker 1: back towards two percent um and you probably do have

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Speaker 1: to have the central banks doing some more unnatural things

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Speaker 1: to count the rate um now with impacts on the dollar,

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Speaker 1: impacts on on psyche and obviously on valuation. So but

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Speaker 1: a lot of people do expect the Fed to jump in, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean you're saying that the Fed would have to,

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Speaker 1: but they would because otherwise you would get some sort

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Speaker 1: of disruption in credit markets and financial conditions. When you

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Speaker 1: talk about the defense of boring bonds, this idea that

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Speaker 1: there's almost this defensiveness in your discussion. It's not that exciting.

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Speaker 1: But we're stolid, we're steady, we're a reliable investment. Do

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Speaker 1: you see credit as being sustained even with a rise

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Speaker 1: of yields to fifty and the benchmark rate. Yes, and

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Speaker 1: we're sure there'll be some bumps along the way, right,

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Speaker 1: this will not continue to be a straight line tighter,

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Speaker 1: but we do think you'll see money coming in higher

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Speaker 1: deals to do. Think credit um is on decent footing.

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Speaker 1: And as you say, um, you have to stad at

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Speaker 1: your back somewhere out there, and you have the government

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Speaker 1: at your back more stimulus somewhere out there. So again

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Speaker 1: it won't be the double digit return corporate year um.

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Speaker 1: But if you do need a couple of percent. As

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Speaker 1: you look in some of these sectors am high yield

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Speaker 1: loans um that still have still have some yield, you

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Speaker 1: can still do okay, even if you'll move up a

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Speaker 1: little bit UM And as you say, the stead will

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Speaker 1: step in at some point. We're in the world. Is

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Speaker 1: the best value right now, Brian? Probably in emerging market

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Speaker 1: still and we've seen the flows in that direction. Things

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Speaker 1: have been it from a week or dollar um. That's

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Speaker 1: probably just still this thing that has the If the

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Speaker 1: set does step then where's the release valve, Probably in

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Speaker 1: the in the dollar weakening. So yeah, is a is

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Speaker 1: a good spot. Um, Hi yield that down in credit

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Speaker 1: again when you can do your homework and it's not

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Speaker 1: just how yeld data, it's something you know, interesting and unique. Um,

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Speaker 1: those things with yield I think are still places you

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Speaker 1: want to go. Bryan Weinstein, thank you so much. From

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Speaker 1: Morgan Stanley Investment Management. We appreciate your time to surveillance.

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Speaker 1: Keeps a lovely ship's bill over by the deak where

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Speaker 1: they all sit, and every time I said go to cash,

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Speaker 1: they ring the bell. The bell has been ringing a

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Speaker 1: lot over the last three years. We talked about people

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Speaker 1: to get bonds right that have gotten right low yields.

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Speaker 1: We talk about people who get the equity markets right.

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Speaker 1: But in the world of equities, no one has consistently

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Speaker 1: done it better. And Benjamin Laylor at HSBC at Tower

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Speaker 1: Hudson's as well, and not only did he nail two

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Speaker 1: years ago, did he nail last year, but this year

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Speaker 1: he continues the enthusiasm. Ben Laylor, thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for joining us. Is all that went on last week

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Speaker 1: shaking your bull conviction? Um? I don't think so. I mean,

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Speaker 1: obviously what went on last week was shocking in sort

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Speaker 1: of very many ways, but I guess the outline for

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Speaker 1: this year is really unchanged. I mean, we are looking at,

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Speaker 1: I think, just a historic growth year where expectations frankly

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Speaker 1: are still too low, both for GDP growth and for

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Speaker 1: ernsings growth. And I think that's going to be really

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Speaker 1: what's going to drive the surprise, the upside surprise for

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Speaker 1: this year, and and it's going to come against the

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Speaker 1: backdrop of I think still very benevolence sort of policy

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Speaker 1: support UM, and I think that's going to allow evaluations

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Speaker 1: to come down a little bit but still remain much

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Speaker 1: higher than they have been historically. And that's really I

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Speaker 1: think the combination that you need to focus on for

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Speaker 1: this year. I mean that I think we're setting ourselves

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Speaker 1: up for a very very rare sort of third year

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Speaker 1: of consecutive strong equity game. And so you've you've you've

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Speaker 1: seen it. Count on three fingers how many times you've

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Speaker 1: seen over the last fifty or sixty years that people

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Speaker 1: are may be right to be cautious yet. But I

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Speaker 1: think that I think that outlook is is what we're

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Speaker 1: playing for here, and I actually probably be a bit

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Speaker 1: better about it now than I did. UM. You know,

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Speaker 1: maybe not because of last week, but certainly over the

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Speaker 1: last a couple of weeks, I think the outlook has

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Speaker 1: probably firmed up. Ben, What's so important here is along

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Speaker 1: the way there's a nuance of sectors. Is this the

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Speaker 1: blunt instrument of a market just lifting or tell us

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Speaker 1: your sector nuance, the distinctions between two years ago one

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Speaker 1: years ago in your sector allocation? Now, yes, as I

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Speaker 1: would sort of sectors and countries. I mean, I think

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Speaker 1: you definitely get paid to. I mean I prefer to

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Speaker 1: call it out sort of catch up of these sort

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Speaker 1: of value cyclical sectors and also international market rather than

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Speaker 1: a rotation, because I think everything is going up. I

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Speaker 1: just think this sort of value cyclical and international markets

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Speaker 1: are probably going up a bit more than the sort

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Speaker 1: of winners of last year. But I do think everything's

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Speaker 1: going up um and and the it's a very different environment.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we're I think right now you should be

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Speaker 1: reaching for risk, you should be reaching for growth. M

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Speaker 1: In many ways, that's sort of the opposite of last year.

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Speaker 1: So we're you know, very focused on places that you

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Speaker 1: know have um you know, value and cyclicals are probably

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Speaker 1: going to grow three to four times more than the

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Speaker 1: sort of winners of last year. This year and you're

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Speaker 1: paying third lower valuations. I mean that's basically I think

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Speaker 1: the outlook for this year. So you know, where do

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Speaker 1: I get that most operating leverage to this, to this

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Speaker 1: environment of higher GDP growth on a half bond fields. Um,

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Speaker 1: it's it's industrials, it's small cap, it's financials, it's it's

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Speaker 1: the emerging market, it's a bit of Europe. Um. This

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Speaker 1: is where I think that the most unt I mean

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Speaker 1: part of make to make this clear, Ben Laylor's law

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Speaker 1: on the Cleveland Browns exactly talk about an add of

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Speaker 1: the odd of the money call there, Ben, you know,

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Speaker 1: at some point, well, we're about to go into the

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter earning season here, Ben, and at some point

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Speaker 1: earnings have to matter. Can't just be the fed flooding

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Speaker 1: in the market with liquidity. What's your earnings outlook here

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Speaker 1: for one and maybe into next year? Yeah, So I

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Speaker 1: completely agree with that. I mean a fourth quarter, you know,

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Speaker 1: earnings do need to sort of keep delivering, and and

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Speaker 1: I think they sort of have been right. I Mean,

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Speaker 1: we've just come off two quarters of the biggest earnings

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Speaker 1: beats you've you've ever seen in recent history. Um, And

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Speaker 1: I think this is going to be a sort of

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Speaker 1: another quarter where you see some very strong earnings Beach

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Speaker 1: one and two. Who's been leading those speech, It's exactly

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Speaker 1: those sectors, um, that I've just been sort of talking about.

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Speaker 1: It's um, it's been those most sort of cytroical sectors

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Speaker 1: with the most depressed earnings. So that's what I'm looking

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Speaker 1: for for this quarter, that sort of narrative to continue

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Speaker 1: of just more earnings beat driving further earnings sort of

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Speaker 1: upgrades and those beat coming out of these most sort

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Speaker 1: of depressed sectors. But to ance your question to you know,

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Speaker 1: earnings outlook for next year of sorry for this year.

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Speaker 1: I just have to get used to saying that in

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Speaker 1: the US, UM, the US that he was sent internationally,

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Speaker 1: and I think there's probably UM, I think when all

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Speaker 1: this sad and done, those numbers are going to be

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Speaker 1: about at least ten percent too low across the board.

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Speaker 1: When you look back historically, UM, you know, very rarely

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Speaker 1: the analysts sort of low ball earnings. But when they do,

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Speaker 1: it's either because we're coming out of a recession or

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Speaker 1: it's because we're somewhere along the line we're getting sort

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Speaker 1: of more fiscal stimulus be being poured into the market,

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Speaker 1: and this year we have got both of those things,

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Speaker 1: and potentially we're about to getting even you know another

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Speaker 1: another slug of fiscal expansion. So I think earnings are

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Speaker 1: fas too low. Um, and you know you CONSERNSUS for

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Speaker 1: US this year when all of a sudden done, I

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Speaker 1: think we're probably close to the thirty alright. So Ben,

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Speaker 1: you've taken your career kind of looking at this global

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Speaker 1: this equity business on a global scale, on globally rate.

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Speaker 1: Here as we start, where do you see some of

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Speaker 1: the best opportunities on a global outlook basis? Yeah, So,

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Speaker 1: as I say, I mean we are definitely looking at

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Speaker 1: you know, assets which should be deeply out of favor

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Speaker 1: for the last decade or so. Um, you know, internationals

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Speaker 1: one and sort of value stroke cyclicals is another one.

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Speaker 1: I mean those two together have probably underperformed, um you

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Speaker 1: know growth from the US by you know, over two

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Speaker 1: percentage points over the last decade. So this I think

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Speaker 1: is the change, um, both on the value six of

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Speaker 1: your side, also at your point on the international side. UM.

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Speaker 1: So i'd be looking at I'd be looking at the

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Speaker 1: m you know specifically, Um, you know, the more cyclical

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Speaker 1: bits of em sort of Latin semir frontier market, basically

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Speaker 1: the bit that didn't do well last year, which is

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Speaker 1: really all about China and and bits from Europe, especially

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Speaker 1: sort of domestic cyclical Europe financials in Europe. Until very recently,

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Speaker 1: those were pretty much the cheapest, most out of favor,

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Speaker 1: most paided, uh sort of segments. Um, that's where i'd

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Speaker 1: be looking. I mean, I guess the sort of caveat um,

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Speaker 1: and I would say, what do you get for that?

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Speaker 1: You basically get twice the growth for those segments that

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Speaker 1: you do in the US, and you're basically only paying

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Speaker 1: a third less in terms of in terms of evaluation.

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Speaker 1: So that's why I think it's worth looking, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: looking internationally, I guess the one caveat is is currencies. Um,

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Speaker 1: Euro's obviously been strengthening, Yen's obviously been strengthening. And I

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Speaker 1: was just gonna say, that's that's a pretty big headwin

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Speaker 1: for some of these companies, which which are you know,

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Speaker 1: big international players. Um, so sort of just there are

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Speaker 1: some caveats, but what if you don't get that consensus.

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Speaker 1: Mark McCormick was from t D Securities and Ben Laidler.

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Speaker 1: I mean Marcus really pushed it against consensus. He's got

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Speaker 1: your equity optimism, your optimism on recovery through all of

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Speaker 1: these challenges, and he says, the great unspoken could be

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Speaker 1: strong dour this year. What do the equity markets do

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Speaker 1: if we get a Mark mccormickdollar. Yeah, I mean I

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Speaker 1: think that that that would clearly be negative. I mean

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Speaker 1: I'm not looking for big, significant dollar weakness from here.

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Speaker 1: I mean you've actually had a lot. I'll you know,

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Speaker 1: I think markets can do well with sort of dollar stabilization,

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Speaker 1: and I'm not and I'm not sure I see the

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Speaker 1: ingredient for you know, meaningfully stronger dollar. Um. But but again, um,

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Speaker 1: the you know, going actually initial point. I mean, if

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Speaker 1: we don't get that bigning surprise and clearly we're gonna

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Speaker 1: make a lot, we're just gonna we're gonna make less money.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think you're, you know, you're looking us

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Speaker 1: sort of flatish US year at that point. You know,

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Speaker 1: markets do you know, obviously do a pretty good job

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Speaker 1: of pricing things in ahead of time, which is why

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Speaker 1: you've very rarely se that sort of third year of

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Speaker 1: strong gains. So I think it probably turns um, you know,

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Speaker 1: a pretty strong year into a plast this year. I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure it completely derails it. Um, you know, only

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Speaker 1: growth is still you know, still a big number. And

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Speaker 1: I think more importantly, I think we begin to focus

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Speaker 1: spent more on on you know, actual actually next year

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Speaker 1: at some point where I still think you're going to

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Speaker 1: see um, you know, I sort of flow through from

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Speaker 1: this year into next year and still decent earnings at

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Speaker 1: that point and a forbearance and and sort of reasonably

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Speaker 1: reasonable forbearance and the bed which I think will support valuations.

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Speaker 1: Benjo and Lee lu thank you so much. Terror Hud

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Speaker 1: sitting here on optimism within the equity marketing, Well, there

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Speaker 1: are financials, there are investments as well. There's also, of

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Speaker 1: course a constitutional crisis in Washington. For more than anything,

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Speaker 1: we're all living in the pandemic, living the reality of

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Speaker 1: what we are going to do. Is Katie Peess already

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Speaker 1: out of the Johns Hopkins University system at Adream Health Charlotte,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, and not so much in the trenches of

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Speaker 1: what we're doing, but in the hey, we've got to

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Speaker 1: get this done. Of what we're doing in vaccination, Kate

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Speaker 1: Pess already, what is your best practice right now to

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Speaker 1: ramp up our vaccination programs. Yes, certainly you all were

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Speaker 1: just talking about, you know, transitioning testing sites larger arenas

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Speaker 1: into vaccination sites. I do think the more people we

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Speaker 1: can get vaccinated, you know, as soon as possible as

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Speaker 1: supply allows, and making sure that we're prioritizing those at

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Speaker 1: higher risks so that we get the most um kind

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Speaker 1: of impact from protecting the people that may have higher

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Speaker 1: likelihood of possibility. Is money and funding a constraint? Are

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Speaker 1: you limited or is Mount Scion, New York or Cedars

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Speaker 1: Sinai out in l A? Are you people limited by

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Speaker 1: the budgeting of the last mile of vaccination? You know,

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Speaker 1: the conversations I've been a part of. Budgeting isn't as

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Speaker 1: much of an issue. Certainly, the things are all very expensive.

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Speaker 1: It's how do we functionally get it done and deal

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Speaker 1: with the financial consequences later. Certainly, you know, tremendous work needed,

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Speaker 1: tremendous people resources needed to make that happen. Is there

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Speaker 1: a skill to giving a vaccine? My skill is to

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Speaker 1: hold somebody's hand because I know it's going to hurt

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Speaker 1: so much. I'm kidding folks, But is there a skill?

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Speaker 1: Is there a skill to giving a shot. So the

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Speaker 1: actual functionality of giving a shot can be done by

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Speaker 1: you know, medical professionals at different levels. You do, and

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Speaker 1: on the off chance that there is a reaction to

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Speaker 1: the vaccine, need to have people able to respond quickly

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00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 1: if someone has a reaction. So you do need medical

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00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 1: professionals there. You can't just be yeah. I mean, I

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00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:45,879
Speaker 1: remember Katie the leap from touch to cycling out to

436
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:48,120
Speaker 1: seto menafin, and you know, there was some real doubt

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00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 1: about all these modern fancy antibiotics. What have you learned

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00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 1: in a number of weeks about our confidence in having

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00:22:55,119 --> 00:23:00,320
Speaker 1: these vaccines both shots? Yeah, so certainly we have an

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00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:03,920
Speaker 1: increase in people's confidence as more and more people get vaccine.

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00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 1: Having that, we still have a huge, huge, huge way

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00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,239
Speaker 1: to go to get the protection our community needs. Well,

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00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,280
Speaker 1: we got a huge way to go. But do we

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00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 1: do that with an increasing confidence or we just sort

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00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 1: of there and and we have to get it done.

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00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:19,680
Speaker 1: And do you do you suggest that there'll be societal

447
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 1: constraints that will force vaccination. Um, you know, I think

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00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:30,400
Speaker 1: it's unlikely as far as mandatory vaccination. Is that kind

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00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,639
Speaker 1: of what you're saying, like an airline says you're not

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00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,960
Speaker 1: getting on board if you don't have a vaccine. Yeah,

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00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 1: so certainly I think private entities may go that route

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00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:42,159
Speaker 1: and specifically kind of travel related you know, requiring proof

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00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,159
Speaker 1: of vaccination to get on a plane and go to

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00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,760
Speaker 1: certain areas. Certainly I think that's possible. You know, at

455
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:50,159
Speaker 1: the governmental level, I think less likely, at least for

456
00:23:50,200 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 1: a very long time. UM that will happen. The timeline

457
00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 1: if you sophisticated m R n A vaccines is you know,

458
00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:00,080
Speaker 1: for anybody to study this and a pro like you

459
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:03,440
Speaker 1: are a hack like me. It's really really something. How

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00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,199
Speaker 1: close are we to what Peter Hotez of Baylor College

461
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:10,359
Speaker 1: of Medicine talks about, which is a low cost traditional

462
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:14,880
Speaker 1: vaccine to really get this done? Where are we in that? Yes,

463
00:24:15,000 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 1: certainly getting closer by the day. So the MR and

464
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:22,080
Speaker 1: A story is amazing and happened safely and rapidly over

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00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:24,440
Speaker 1: a very short period of time. But that doesn't mean

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00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 1: that other vaccine candidates, traditional vaccine candidates like you mentioned,

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00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 1: weren't being worked on at the same time. So more

468
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:34,440
Speaker 1: and more UM research studies are going on to get

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00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 1: the level of data to make sure that type of

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00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:40,959
Speaker 1: vaccine is protective, and you know, the cost the handling

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00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:44,400
Speaker 1: of the current MR and A vaccines are hugely, hugely

472
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 1: kind of blocking getting them out. So as we get

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00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 1: these more, more of these candidates that are more easily

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00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 1: usable and distributable UM out. It's it's hugely important. There's

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00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 1: a ton of work going on to make that happen.

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Speaker 1: Do you envision the Charlotte Charlotte, North Carolina, folks, is

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00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:04,639
Speaker 1: Charlotte Convention Center being used as the vaccine site? Is

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00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 1: that where we're heading? You know, certainly the Health Department

479
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,760
Speaker 1: is already using um beau Jangles Coliseum to vaccinate people.

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00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 1: You know, I do think we are going to need

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00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:17,000
Speaker 1: larger venues to get the volume of people vaccinated that

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00:25:17,040 --> 00:25:20,119
Speaker 1: we need. That's going to mean private healthcare, you know,

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00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 1: public Health Department, all groups kind of working together to

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00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 1: make that happen. What have you learned about the shock?

485
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,160
Speaker 1: I mean, so many people are concerned about the shock,

486
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Speaker 1: and there's this report and that report one out of

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Speaker 1: a million, one out of a hundred thousand, whatever those

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00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 1: numbers are. Are those numbers contained and appropriate or do

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00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:41,120
Speaker 1: you have any concern about the research on shock? Yeah?

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00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,760
Speaker 1: So certainly, the numbers have continued to be low of

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Speaker 1: people that have anaphylactic shock or shock like reactions following

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00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 1: the vaccine, which is reassuring as we go out to

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00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 1: larger and larger groups of people. UM, certainly, you know,

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00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 1: we need to continue to monitor, but you know, those

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00:25:56,680 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 1: I would just re enforce that those numbers do stay

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Speaker 1: low and happen in a very small number of people.

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Speaker 1: In the vast majority of people do just fine after

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Speaker 1: the first dose and the second the second dose, what

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00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:11,199
Speaker 1: does the second dose do? I really haven't seen a

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00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:12,919
Speaker 1: good article on this. I mean, you know, in the

501
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 1: old days, folks, we had booster shots. Is that what

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00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:19,520
Speaker 1: this is. It's just a booster really, it is essentially

503
00:26:19,560 --> 00:26:21,880
Speaker 1: acting like a booster shot, so to kind of the

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00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:25,200
Speaker 1: initial ones kind of priming your immune system, your protective system,

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00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 1: and then the second dose UM kicks it up further

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00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 1: to hopefully get longer duration of protection, higher level of protection.

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00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:35,760
Speaker 1: But with that we do see some more side effects

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00:26:35,840 --> 00:26:39,560
Speaker 1: as far as arm paining, fevers, feeling kind of crummy,

509
00:26:39,680 --> 00:26:43,399
Speaker 1: especially in kind fifty five after that second shot. So

510
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 1: people just need to be prepared for that. Dr Pess already,

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Speaker 1: thank you, so much, greatly greatly appreciate it with Adriam

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Speaker 1: Health directors. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.

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00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:58,000
Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or

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00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:02,399
Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom

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00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:06,360
Speaker 1: Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio