WEBVTT - Inequality of the Coronavirus Outbreak

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the

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<v Speaker 1>latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,

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<v Speaker 1>all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors,

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<v Speaker 1>and of course Carol that's part of a team of

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<v Speaker 1>twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts and more than a

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and twenty countries and Jason. You can download Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week on iTunes, soundclad bl Bloomberg dot com. You

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<v Speaker 1>can also listen to our radio show at two pm

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<v Speaker 1>Eastern on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube by searching Bloomberg Global News. The virus clearly, UH

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<v Speaker 1>continues to be front of mine, and yet I feel

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<v Speaker 1>like we're looking at it, maybe in a more complicated

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<v Speaker 1>way and a more complex way, not in a bad way.

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<v Speaker 1>Candid League, Carol, and this next guest has always kept

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<v Speaker 1>us on us when we've talked to him about some

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<v Speaker 1>of the demographic, the socio economic elements of this that

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<v Speaker 1>we cannot forget right and I feel like it's been exacerbated.

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<v Speaker 1>Are reminded even more because of the last couple of weeks, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>the black community right again impacted disproportionately. Um, when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to certainly the virus, we saw that, and then

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<v Speaker 1>equality and justice. So perfect voice for us on this Monday.

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome back Dr Sandro Gillia. He's dean and professor at

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<v Speaker 1>Boston University School of Public Health and his author pained

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<v Speaker 1>uncomfortable conversations about the public's health. Conversations though that need

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<v Speaker 1>to be had, he joins us once again on the

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<v Speaker 1>phone from Boston. Dr Gilia, Nice to have you back

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<v Speaker 1>with us. UM. I do wonder, both Jason and I

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<v Speaker 1>do wonder how you're thinking has continued to evolve because

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<v Speaker 1>of what's happened, not only in the past thirteen weeks,

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<v Speaker 1>because of the virus. We've talked to you about that,

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<v Speaker 1>but then what's happened in the past two weeks, what

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<v Speaker 1>we've seen out of Minneapolis. You know, first of all,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you for having me always. I think what we're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing coming out of Minneapolis is an expression of justifiable,

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<v Speaker 1>entirely understandable anger and frustration with decades and centuries long injustices,

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<v Speaker 1>and that I think is reflected in the protest we

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<v Speaker 1>have seen around police around policing and around systemic racism. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>when you think about that one question, you might ask, well,

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<v Speaker 1>what does it have to do with COVID, What does

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<v Speaker 1>it at the moment we've been living through. But I

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<v Speaker 1>would argue that these underlying structural forces that divide us,

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<v Speaker 1>that divide us on racial ethnic lines, that divide us

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<v Speaker 1>on social class lines, also are the story of COVID.

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<v Speaker 1>COVID was a virus that early on said world virus

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<v Speaker 1>effect everybody. Sure it does, but it doesn't affect everybody equally.

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<v Speaker 1>We know now that the greater burden of COVID infections

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<v Speaker 1>disproportionately falls on minorities, on people of color. We know

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<v Speaker 1>that among those who are infected, the greater proportion of death,

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<v Speaker 1>a great egshbit of death falls on people of color

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<v Speaker 1>and people who are socio economically marginalized. And that reflects

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<v Speaker 1>this underlying division that shape and colors our society. And

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<v Speaker 1>those are really the same forces that we are now

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<v Speaker 1>seeing flare up in uh in this anger that emerged

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<v Speaker 1>obviously from the George Floyd killing and the other killings

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<v Speaker 1>around it. So we do have here commonalities. We have

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<v Speaker 1>essentially a pandemic unemployment, civil unrest, all of which is

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<v Speaker 1>reflecting underlying deep racial and socio economic device and so

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Ghalia, how do we go about solving this structurally

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<v Speaker 1>from a health perspective? Because all of these things, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think you've pointed this out to us before rightly,

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<v Speaker 1>are all intertwined. Whether it's health, education, transportation, housing, all

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<v Speaker 1>of it is tied together. But just taking health and

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<v Speaker 1>your specialty and public health specifically, what are the ways

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<v Speaker 1>that that maybe we can be thinking about, uh, to

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<v Speaker 1>start to change the structure of this. Yeah, I think, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>it thinks a great question, and I think it's a

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<v Speaker 1>it's a natural question, and I sup pose I would

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<v Speaker 1>invert the question because I don't. I do not think

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<v Speaker 1>you can treat this just as a health problem. Interesting,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that health is ineluctably linked with housing, with fair,

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<v Speaker 1>fair wages, with gender equity, with clean air, drinkable water,

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<v Speaker 1>with the way we structure our society overall. And this

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<v Speaker 1>is why health and social justice are so inextricably intertwined,

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<v Speaker 1>because there is no solution that focuses only on health.

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<v Speaker 1>If we focus only on health, what ends up happening

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<v Speaker 1>is we end up borrowing and borrowing more, ever more,

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<v Speaker 1>deeply in spending money on healthcare, and of course, spending

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<v Speaker 1>money on healthcare as as you know, as the listeners know,

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<v Speaker 1>is fleeting disease after people are already sick. But of

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<v Speaker 1>course people are getting sick to begin with because of

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<v Speaker 1>these underlying issues. And let's take let's take one complete example.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's take the economic collapse that has happened after a

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<v Speaker 1>COVID we all, we all notice you talk about it

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<v Speaker 1>quite a bit in your show. But of course the

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<v Speaker 1>economic collapse has been uneven t thirty six million jobs

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<v Speaker 1>have been lost so far in where health of the

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<v Speaker 1>jobs lost were helped by people who are already had

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<v Speaker 1>an animal alsehold income of below the unemployment rate among

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<v Speaker 1>white's fourteen percent, among black seventeen percent among Latin X populations.

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<v Speaker 1>So what we're seeing here is even in something like this,

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<v Speaker 1>which is an economic collapse which is widespread, which you

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<v Speaker 1>report correctly has been widespread, is furthering these divides. And

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<v Speaker 1>these are the social divides that are going to become

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<v Speaker 1>health divide. So let's take for a second, let's let's

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<v Speaker 1>assume let's agree that unemployment results in bad health. That's

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<v Speaker 1>that's not a controversial. That's not a comrevercial statement, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm telling unemployment results in bad health. I'm also

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<v Speaker 1>telling you that unemployment is this proportion and among people

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<v Speaker 1>who are already poorer than people who are richer. So

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<v Speaker 1>it doesn't take a sort of too many logical steps

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<v Speaker 1>to realize that that means that people who are poorer

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<v Speaker 1>are going to get sicker, people who are richer are

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<v Speaker 1>going to get healthier. Now, if we focused on that

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<v Speaker 1>as a strictly health problem, we are going to be

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<v Speaker 1>throwing money at healthcare to help fix people who have

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<v Speaker 1>gotten sick. Well, the problem, the reason they got six

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<v Speaker 1>to begin with is because they were already economically marginalized

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<v Speaker 1>and because they became unemployed in a time of COVID.

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<v Speaker 1>So when you see it that way, the two are inextricable.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think a health agenda has to include an

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<v Speaker 1>economic agenda. I totally agree. God, we were talking about

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<v Speaker 1>this a lot over the weekend, about what it is

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<v Speaker 1>to those that are more vulnerable and economically disadvantaged. What

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<v Speaker 1>do we need to do to really make a difference

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<v Speaker 1>with Our guest at this hour is Dr Sandro Galia. Galia.

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<v Speaker 1>He is dean and professor at Boston University School of

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<v Speaker 1>Public Health author pained uncomfortable conversations about the public's health.

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<v Speaker 1>Dr Galia, One thing I want to ask you, since

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<v Speaker 1>we you know, we know so much is interconnected in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of, you know, really determining what kind of life

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<v Speaker 1>an individual in America has. So, what do you think

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<v Speaker 1>is the most important difficult conversation that we have to

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<v Speaker 1>have at this point? Is it over housing? Is it transportation?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it wages? Is it taxation? Is it health? What

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<v Speaker 1>the one that we need to have to kind of

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<v Speaker 1>make a difference to the less fortunate populations, and specifically

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<v Speaker 1>since we've talked about it a lot over the last

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<v Speaker 1>couple of weeks and certainly the last thirteen weeks, the

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<v Speaker 1>black population. Yeah, I think that's a that's a terrific

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<v Speaker 1>question and one I must all the time. And is

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<v Speaker 1>it a conversation about making sure everybody has access to

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<v Speaker 1>quality early childhood education, is a conversation about fair wages

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<v Speaker 1>and increasing knowledge? Is it the convertation about affordable housing

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<v Speaker 1>ensuring that everybody there's this food about narrowing wealth gaps

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<v Speaker 1>or redating violence of infginalized groups SPD groups. And the

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<v Speaker 1>answer is I don't know any of these important and others.

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<v Speaker 1>I have to think the hardest conversation is the one

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<v Speaker 1>we're having now. We just to say that all of

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<v Speaker 1>these conversations are important. You know, which of the conversations

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<v Speaker 1>become policy solutions depends as much on the connotation as

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<v Speaker 1>it does on the pragmatics of the moment as to

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<v Speaker 1>on what is possible in what jurisdiction. So as not

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<v Speaker 1>un concerned. If there is one thing that we should do,

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<v Speaker 1>it's to change the conversation and to say that all

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<v Speaker 1>of these are forces that we should discuss in the

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<v Speaker 1>same breath as we discuss health. And when you think

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<v Speaker 1>about COVID and ask myself, you know, what should we

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<v Speaker 1>look back on COVID in ten years time, what's the

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<v Speaker 1>conversation that we should remember. What I'd like us to

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<v Speaker 1>remember is that COVID taught us if you cannot help

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<v Speaker 1>have a healthy country without better education, transportation, wages, housing, food,

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<v Speaker 1>narrowing wealthcaps, reducing violence, better integration of marginalized groups. Because

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<v Speaker 1>all of those forces we have seen play out in

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<v Speaker 1>creating the COVID pandemic that we've lived through. So if

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<v Speaker 1>we learn from that, if we learn from that, we

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<v Speaker 1>will tackle them and tackle them now. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>I do wonder, Dr Galia. Part of this is educating

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<v Speaker 1>maybe the next generation, whether it's the next generation of

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<v Speaker 1>doctors or just the next generation writ large, sort of

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<v Speaker 1>a different way or to think in a different way,

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<v Speaker 1>and that seems to be coming up repeatedly. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think many of us are buoyed by the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of the people protesting peacefully are of many

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<v Speaker 1>different races and colors and backgrounds. Um. I do wonder

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<v Speaker 1>what the conversations are that you're having with your students

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<v Speaker 1>and how they might be different from a previous generation. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I I like you by by thinking about the next generation.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the privileges of being a dean of the

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<v Speaker 1>school that I'm surrounded by the next generation. I all

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<v Speaker 1>of these conversations are happening with our students, but perhaps

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<v Speaker 1>most importantly, our students are leading the appreciations because I

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<v Speaker 1>actually think that the generation that is up and coming

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<v Speaker 1>that will be in charge of the world in next

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<v Speaker 1>into years as some interesting ideas. And I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>all of the ideous work I think somebody with somebody

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<v Speaker 1>disagree with, but I think it's UM It's a tremendously

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<v Speaker 1>important moment in time to allow ideast by space as

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<v Speaker 1>we can which sift forward, which once we can adopt

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<v Speaker 1>m to use. I think something Carol said before the break,

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<v Speaker 1>how we can make sure we actually implement the transformations

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<v Speaker 1>to implement without and making sure that people are not

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<v Speaker 1>hurt in the process and that and that of course

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<v Speaker 1>is critical. So I've been I've been enjoying listening and

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<v Speaker 1>learning from all the ideas emerging from the next generation.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course it's immensely hopeful to think that some

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<v Speaker 1>of these concepts that the three of us are discussing

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<v Speaker 1>their sort of second nature to the generation, and that

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<v Speaker 1>will make the world a better place. I was thinking about,

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<v Speaker 1>I know, Jason, you do this at your home with

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<v Speaker 1>your teenagers and my teenager. To like the way they

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<v Speaker 1>talk about this and approach it gives me hope, I

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<v Speaker 1>have to say, in terms of totally you know the

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<v Speaker 1>possibility of making a difference and looking at it in

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<v Speaker 1>a different way. UM, thank you so much. Dr Sandrow

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<v Speaker 1>Galileo galia He is dean and professor at Boston University

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<v Speaker 1>School of Public Health. Author pained uncomfortable conversations about the

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<v Speaker 1>public's health. And he's so patient because every time I

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<v Speaker 1>say his name, I seem to just mess it up.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, he's just such a jam, new and different.

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<v Speaker 1>I know, I feel so terrible because I he's one

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<v Speaker 1>of my favorite voices to talk to, because I feel

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<v Speaker 1>like he looks at the world. It's not just healthcare,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's taking everything into account and how do you

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<v Speaker 1>make a difference. Maybe in all of our show calls,

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<v Speaker 1>will just say, all right, let's say it again. Sandro Gallea,

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<v Speaker 1>Sandra Gallea, I think it's Sandro Sandro Gallea. You're listening

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<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. One of the issues that we have

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<v Speaker 1>been looking at so closely, Carol is what happens next

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<v Speaker 1>and how we got here? And this true from the

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<v Speaker 1>magazine last week, I think is a really important and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm really glad Joel Webber and I were talking about

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<v Speaker 1>this earlier that we're getting a chance to talk about it.

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<v Speaker 1>Clearance Souneth wrote it, uh and the story has a

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<v Speaker 1>very simple headline, America's safety net is failing. It's workers.

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<v Speaker 1>Claire Jones is on the phone from Brooklyn. Joel Webber

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<v Speaker 1>is also with us, the aforementioned Joel Webber. He is

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<v Speaker 1>the editor, of course, of Bloomberg Business Week. So Joel

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<v Speaker 1>help us under dand how this fits into what was

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<v Speaker 1>clearly a broader theme in the magazine and the most

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<v Speaker 1>recent issue of the magazine. So Claire actually started working

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<v Speaker 1>on this story basically right at the very beginning of

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic. And I think she really, uh, she's just

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<v Speaker 1>like one of the most gifted storytellers I think we have.

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<v Speaker 1>And really, I think she was like a laser on

0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:29.720
<v Speaker 1>putting um the you know, the spotlight on on workers,

0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:33.319
<v Speaker 1>and one after the next that she talked to, she

0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:37.720
<v Speaker 1>was just getting amazing stuff about them, basically realizing how

0:12:37.760 --> 0:12:40.280
<v Speaker 1>there was no more safety net in this country because

0:12:40.320 --> 0:12:43.400
<v Speaker 1>it's basically just been eroded over time. So when something

0:12:43.400 --> 0:12:48.000
<v Speaker 1>like the pandemic hits, everything is overwhelmed and as a result,

0:12:48.120 --> 0:12:52.280
<v Speaker 1>the labor market just goes upside down. And frankly, even

0:12:52.360 --> 0:12:56.040
<v Speaker 1>despite Friday being what those numbers were, it still feels

0:12:56.080 --> 0:13:00.200
<v Speaker 1>like we still don't understand entirely what's going on. And

0:13:00.240 --> 0:13:03.480
<v Speaker 1>I think clear reporting to me, of everything I've read

0:13:03.520 --> 0:13:05.600
<v Speaker 1>so far, was the one That just made me really

0:13:05.679 --> 0:13:09.199
<v Speaker 1>understand it on a more human level. Clear what did

0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:11.920
<v Speaker 1>you how did you find these people and what did

0:13:11.920 --> 0:13:15.600
<v Speaker 1>you hear from them? Um, that is a great question.

0:13:15.640 --> 0:13:18.439
<v Speaker 1>I found him a number of ways. Um. I mean

0:13:19.000 --> 0:13:21.440
<v Speaker 1>part of this is this whole story, given the pandemic

0:13:21.480 --> 0:13:24.440
<v Speaker 1>had to be reported remotely. UM. So normally I tried

0:13:24.440 --> 0:13:27.199
<v Speaker 1>to go out and talk to people, but here I

0:13:27.200 --> 0:13:30.240
<v Speaker 1>basically utilized the Internet. I put out a column pretty

0:13:30.320 --> 0:13:32.960
<v Speaker 1>much all social media that I could, and then I

0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:38.040
<v Speaker 1>also just reached out to random small business owners. UM.

0:13:38.120 --> 0:13:41.720
<v Speaker 1>I read something small in the paper about cheesecake factory

0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:44.960
<v Speaker 1>employees being furloughed and that they had formed a Spacebook group.

0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:47.599
<v Speaker 1>So I talked my way into the Facebook group and

0:13:47.679 --> 0:13:50.200
<v Speaker 1>ended up talking to all these cheesecake factory employees. So

0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:53.120
<v Speaker 1>there's an anecdote about them and there. Um. And it

0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:55.560
<v Speaker 1>was just a lot of I would refer to it

0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:57.679
<v Speaker 1>as on the ground reporting, except it's more like on

0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:03.400
<v Speaker 1>the internet reporting. Um. Yeah. And I tried to talk

0:14:03.400 --> 0:14:05.760
<v Speaker 1>to people all over the country. So there are people

0:14:06.000 --> 0:14:09.720
<v Speaker 1>from you know, Virginia to Chicago, to California, to Montana,

0:14:10.280 --> 0:14:13.040
<v Speaker 1>to New Mexico to Texas in the story. Um, to

0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:16.000
<v Speaker 1>paint a pretty wide picture of what it looks like

0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:22.240
<v Speaker 1>across America as a whole, and everybody I learned, so

0:14:22.320 --> 0:14:25.680
<v Speaker 1>I did. I started reporting this before the Cares Act passed. UM.

0:14:25.720 --> 0:14:28.360
<v Speaker 1>So the thing that struck me first as people were

0:14:28.920 --> 0:14:31.600
<v Speaker 1>getting laid off during the shutdown the initial couple of

0:14:31.680 --> 0:14:35.600
<v Speaker 1>first weeks in March was that, UM, given the past

0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:37.800
<v Speaker 1>work that I have done on stuff similar to this,

0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:40.320
<v Speaker 1>I just knew that there wasn't anything available for a

0:14:40.320 --> 0:14:44.080
<v Speaker 1>lot of people. And many people have extreme debt um

0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:46.320
<v Speaker 1>or their health care is tied to their jobs, or

0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:48.680
<v Speaker 1>they don't have health care at all, and so I

0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:52.280
<v Speaker 1>wanted to see what this looks like when you suddenly

0:14:52.440 --> 0:14:56.160
<v Speaker 1>are laid off of work UM, with no opportunity really

0:14:56.200 --> 0:14:58.480
<v Speaker 1>to get another job. I think what was different with

0:14:58.600 --> 0:15:01.600
<v Speaker 1>this pandemic is if you're laid off in a recession,

0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:05.440
<v Speaker 1>its docks and it's terrible, but you can look for

0:15:05.480 --> 0:15:08.120
<v Speaker 1>other jobs. But if you're if you're a restaurant worker

0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:11.000
<v Speaker 1>in your restaurant closes, you can't go to another restaurant,

0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:14.960
<v Speaker 1>so you had to sit tight UM. And so I

0:15:15.080 --> 0:15:19.160
<v Speaker 1>watched as these people went from having UM no safety

0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:23.840
<v Speaker 1>net whatsoever, the very first people in this story happened

0:15:23.840 --> 0:15:25.920
<v Speaker 1>to be working. They were freelance workers, and they happened

0:15:25.880 --> 0:15:28.280
<v Speaker 1>to be working the first sporting event in the US

0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:32.280
<v Speaker 1>that was shut down on March eight, and they had nothing.

0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:34.760
<v Speaker 1>They had, Um, they paid for their own health insurance,

0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:38.680
<v Speaker 1>they didn't have you know, any unemployment. They didn't qualify

0:15:39.000 --> 0:15:41.840
<v Speaker 1>the CARES actual later changed that, but it took them

0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:44.840
<v Speaker 1>a month plus to actually get up, you know, through

0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:48.080
<v Speaker 1>the unemployment system, which is you know, it has its

0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:50.960
<v Speaker 1>own issues. And so I started talking to them before

0:15:51.080 --> 0:15:54.360
<v Speaker 1>they could even apply for unemployment and thought they had

0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:56.840
<v Speaker 1>to do this all on their own. And then this

0:15:57.000 --> 0:15:59.480
<v Speaker 1>act gets passed and then they feel better, and then

0:15:59.480 --> 0:16:01.840
<v Speaker 1>it turns out that they have to wait for their

0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:04.080
<v Speaker 1>unemployment and then it's not what they thought it was

0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:06.440
<v Speaker 1>going to be. You know, one of them didn't even

0:16:06.520 --> 0:16:09.040
<v Speaker 1>get anything until just a couple of weeks ago. Um,

0:16:09.080 --> 0:16:12.040
<v Speaker 1>and they have been laid off since March. So that's

0:16:12.160 --> 0:16:14.760
<v Speaker 1>basically the story of why we didn't have the set

0:16:14.840 --> 0:16:19.160
<v Speaker 1>up in the first place. And then, um, what a

0:16:19.240 --> 0:16:23.440
<v Speaker 1>cluster mess it is to try to build a safety

0:16:23.480 --> 0:16:26.120
<v Speaker 1>net in the middle of a pandemic. Right Well, you

0:16:26.160 --> 0:16:28.280
<v Speaker 1>know what's first of all. I love that you tell

0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:30.560
<v Speaker 1>the personal stories because I feel like sometimes we talked

0:16:30.560 --> 0:16:33.200
<v Speaker 1>from that big perspective, the big broad numbers, But when

0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:35.360
<v Speaker 1>you really hear about, you know, the struggles that so

0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:37.640
<v Speaker 1>many Americans are going through as a result of this,

0:16:38.120 --> 0:16:42.000
<v Speaker 1>it's really very telling. The thing is, what's interesting, Claire

0:16:42.040 --> 0:16:45.760
<v Speaker 1>too about your story is the destruction of the middle class. Right.

0:16:45.920 --> 0:16:47.640
<v Speaker 1>You know, we see people pointing like, you've got to

0:16:47.680 --> 0:16:50.720
<v Speaker 1>have a safety neft net, But how can you have

0:16:50.760 --> 0:16:54.680
<v Speaker 1>a safety net when we really destroyed I feel like

0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:58.760
<v Speaker 1>that opportunity for so many Americans. Yeah, you know, I

0:16:58.840 --> 0:17:02.200
<v Speaker 1>talked to people in all different levels of UM what

0:17:02.280 --> 0:17:05.240
<v Speaker 1>I would I guess refer to as you know, economic

0:17:05.280 --> 0:17:08.960
<v Speaker 1>and financial security and UM. You know, there's a woman

0:17:09.000 --> 0:17:11.960
<v Speaker 1>in the story who was a senior marketing manager at Airbnb. Like,

0:17:12.040 --> 0:17:14.880
<v Speaker 1>she made good money, she worked for a big company. UM,

0:17:14.920 --> 0:17:19.520
<v Speaker 1>she's getting severance through UM July. UM. But the thing

0:17:19.640 --> 0:17:22.960
<v Speaker 1>is that she lives in the Bay Area and she had,

0:17:23.240 --> 0:17:25.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, had I think it was about forty five

0:17:25.680 --> 0:17:30.040
<v Speaker 1>thousand dollars in personal debt, and she can't afford to

0:17:30.080 --> 0:17:33.320
<v Speaker 1>stay in the Bay Area if she can't find another job,

0:17:33.760 --> 0:17:35.760
<v Speaker 1>and she's not sure that she's going to be able

0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:39.520
<v Speaker 1>to do that before her severance ends, um, which is

0:17:39.640 --> 0:17:42.560
<v Speaker 1>you know, she's like maybe a month to go before,

0:17:42.880 --> 0:17:45.680
<v Speaker 1>you know, and she doesn't have a job, and so

0:17:45.800 --> 0:17:48.800
<v Speaker 1>her option is essentially she's forty years old and she's

0:17:48.800 --> 0:17:51.040
<v Speaker 1>originally from New Jersey, and so she said, I'm just

0:17:51.080 --> 0:17:52.840
<v Speaker 1>going to move home to New Jersey and live with

0:17:52.880 --> 0:17:55.879
<v Speaker 1>my mom. Um. And this is a woman who's you know,

0:17:55.920 --> 0:17:59.040
<v Speaker 1>well advanced in her career, is doing well in all

0:17:59.040 --> 0:18:03.919
<v Speaker 1>other respects. But um, just the nature of life and

0:18:03.960 --> 0:18:06.359
<v Speaker 1>how expensive it is the middle class. I talked to

0:18:06.400 --> 0:18:10.159
<v Speaker 1>several economists to study this and study wealth disparity, and

0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:13.040
<v Speaker 1>one of the things, um um, Edward Wolfe at m

0:18:13.160 --> 0:18:15.520
<v Speaker 1>Y you mentioned that he's been setting this for so long.

0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:19.440
<v Speaker 1>In the nineteen eighties, your average middle class family had

0:18:19.560 --> 0:18:23.320
<v Speaker 1>enough financial reserves and savings to get through two to

0:18:23.400 --> 0:18:25.960
<v Speaker 1>three months of just sort of normal consumption. If they

0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:29.399
<v Speaker 1>hold tight, they lose their jobs. And now it's a

0:18:29.440 --> 0:18:35.200
<v Speaker 1>little bit over a week nothing. Yeah, that's really remarkable. Well, uh,

0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:37.719
<v Speaker 1>it is. They must read for sure. It was one

0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:40.159
<v Speaker 1>of the most rehead when it published last week, and

0:18:40.240 --> 0:18:43.280
<v Speaker 1>certainly this full issue of the magazine is one to

0:18:43.480 --> 0:18:48.800
<v Speaker 1>really sit with and kind of take it in because

0:18:49.080 --> 0:18:51.720
<v Speaker 1>I think we all need that gut check and that

0:18:51.800 --> 0:18:54.520
<v Speaker 1>reality check about what the statistics, the data and the

0:18:54.520 --> 0:18:56.640
<v Speaker 1>personal stories. And you pointed that out, Carroll, really show.

0:18:56.760 --> 0:18:58.800
<v Speaker 1>But I also think of the conversation we have with

0:18:58.920 --> 0:19:02.240
<v Speaker 1>Dr galayap right about all of this so interconnected, and

0:19:02.280 --> 0:19:04.159
<v Speaker 1>we've got to if we're going to solve some of

0:19:04.160 --> 0:19:07.920
<v Speaker 1>these problems, folks, we have to look at all of it, education, housing, wages,

0:19:08.000 --> 0:19:10.720
<v Speaker 1>so much so our thanks to Claire Saideth check out

0:19:10.720 --> 0:19:12.800
<v Speaker 1>that story in the magazine. Of course, I think so always.

0:19:12.840 --> 0:19:16.080
<v Speaker 1>To Bloomberg Business Week editor Joe Webber, you're listening to

0:19:16.200 --> 0:19:20.119
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on

0:19:20.280 --> 0:19:24.760
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. All right, you are listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

0:19:24.800 --> 0:19:26.639
<v Speaker 1>It is Monday. I'm Carol Masser along with my co

0:19:26.720 --> 0:19:33.760
<v Speaker 1>host Jason Kelly. So, Jason, it is so true. My

0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:36.560
<v Speaker 1>family is another description of it too at her at home,

0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:39.240
<v Speaker 1>but we'll talk about that later. Um, Jason, let's not forget.

0:19:39.280 --> 0:19:41.440
<v Speaker 1>We've got a FED meeting this Wednesday, so it's gonna

0:19:41.440 --> 0:19:44.320
<v Speaker 1>be very interesting. If you think about Friday's jobs report,

0:19:44.359 --> 0:19:46.679
<v Speaker 1>I'm so curious what the Fed has to say in

0:19:46.720 --> 0:19:49.720
<v Speaker 1>today's Business Week economics. UM. So delighted to have back

0:19:49.760 --> 0:19:53.720
<v Speaker 1>with us Stephen Skanky. He's chief economic advisor at keel Point.

0:19:53.880 --> 0:19:59.159
<v Speaker 1>Former US Treasury uh UM US former sorry, former U

0:19:59.240 --> 0:20:02.560
<v Speaker 1>S Treasury and White House National Security Council staff member.

0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:04.400
<v Speaker 1>It's terrible when I can't even read my own notes.

0:20:04.600 --> 0:20:07.080
<v Speaker 1>Based in Washington, d C. He's on the phone in

0:20:07.200 --> 0:20:10.000
<v Speaker 1>the nation's capital. Um, Steven, so great to have you

0:20:10.040 --> 0:20:13.919
<v Speaker 1>back with us. UM. So much going on as well,

0:20:13.960 --> 0:20:21.119
<v Speaker 1>and I do wonder, first of all, how is your world? Well, thanks, Carol.

0:20:21.119 --> 0:20:23.960
<v Speaker 1>Always great to be with you and Jason. Our our

0:20:24.000 --> 0:20:29.040
<v Speaker 1>world is increasingly complicated, just because there's so much going

0:20:29.080 --> 0:20:32.240
<v Speaker 1>on all the time. But I'd say generally, well, we

0:20:32.320 --> 0:20:34.880
<v Speaker 1>feel good about what we're seeing and about how markets

0:20:34.880 --> 0:20:38.240
<v Speaker 1>are responding. Some of it is is a little bit

0:20:38.240 --> 0:20:40.919
<v Speaker 1>hard to fathom when markets are up on days that

0:20:40.960 --> 0:20:45.639
<v Speaker 1>we have negative news, but clearly they've they've learned to

0:20:45.680 --> 0:20:49.600
<v Speaker 1>look forward to what's coming and not what's in the

0:20:49.680 --> 0:20:54.199
<v Speaker 1>rear view mirror. Yeah, I mean, it is sort of

0:20:54.240 --> 0:20:58.040
<v Speaker 1>remarkable to to see this and to continue to try

0:20:58.080 --> 0:21:02.679
<v Speaker 1>and synthesize sort of well street main street data, market

0:21:02.760 --> 0:21:06.840
<v Speaker 1>sentiment and all that. So, Stephen, if you're sitting at

0:21:06.840 --> 0:21:09.199
<v Speaker 1>the FED, you know, sitting around that virgin at that

0:21:09.280 --> 0:21:12.560
<v Speaker 1>zoom meeting with which I assume is how they're doing everything,

0:21:12.720 --> 0:21:16.159
<v Speaker 1>like we all are um with j Pollack, what's the

0:21:16.200 --> 0:21:18.320
<v Speaker 1>tone of the meeting? What are you looking at more

0:21:18.400 --> 0:21:21.879
<v Speaker 1>acutely or more specifically, and and how does the conversation go.

0:21:24.320 --> 0:21:27.960
<v Speaker 1>They certainly have to be happy with how things are

0:21:28.040 --> 0:21:34.720
<v Speaker 1>developing and how what they've done already, which was proactive, preemptive,

0:21:36.040 --> 0:21:39.080
<v Speaker 1>uh and done very effectively. They've got to be very

0:21:39.119 --> 0:21:43.920
<v Speaker 1>satisfied with that, notwithstanding the other things that are going

0:21:43.920 --> 0:21:47.200
<v Speaker 1>on in the economy and public health. But they've really

0:21:47.200 --> 0:21:50.720
<v Speaker 1>done their part, and they've done it well. Uh So,

0:21:50.720 --> 0:21:54.159
<v Speaker 1>so as they see where they've they've made sure that

0:21:54.240 --> 0:21:59.600
<v Speaker 1>there's enough liquidity, they've backstopped critical credit markets, they've done

0:21:59.640 --> 0:22:03.399
<v Speaker 1>what they can on easy monetary policy and buying longer

0:22:03.520 --> 0:22:07.080
<v Speaker 1>term asset, and so now let's to figure out where

0:22:07.080 --> 0:22:10.239
<v Speaker 1>the fine tuning has to happen. You know, so far

0:22:10.320 --> 0:22:14.240
<v Speaker 1>off there are eleven emergency credit facilities, they've only implemented

0:22:14.480 --> 0:22:17.320
<v Speaker 1>three of them. It looks like they're getting ready to

0:22:17.440 --> 0:22:20.840
<v Speaker 1>roll out main street lending, UH, which can have a

0:22:20.960 --> 0:22:28.480
<v Speaker 1>huge impact. It's it's potential is up to billion, and

0:22:29.359 --> 0:22:32.560
<v Speaker 1>that will be significant when that gets rolling. So so

0:22:32.600 --> 0:22:35.560
<v Speaker 1>they're they're looking at what needs to be done next

0:22:35.600 --> 0:22:38.159
<v Speaker 1>and what fine tuning needs to be done with what

0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:44.159
<v Speaker 1>they've done already. So fine tuning what I'm curious And

0:22:44.240 --> 0:22:47.800
<v Speaker 1>you understand, um, Steve, how it all works right? Having

0:22:48.000 --> 0:22:50.919
<v Speaker 1>you know, worked at the treasure, you understand, um, the

0:22:51.000 --> 0:22:53.639
<v Speaker 1>workings of all of this. How does something like the

0:22:53.720 --> 0:22:57.840
<v Speaker 1>last two weeks fit into potentially a FED discussion. I

0:22:57.920 --> 0:22:59.920
<v Speaker 1>bring it up because Alan Greenspan used to talk a

0:23:00.119 --> 0:23:04.000
<v Speaker 1>lot about the broader society and inequalities and so on

0:23:04.000 --> 0:23:06.240
<v Speaker 1>and so forth, and just kind of looking at things.

0:23:06.560 --> 0:23:09.840
<v Speaker 1>So I just do wonder does the FED think about

0:23:10.080 --> 0:23:14.000
<v Speaker 1>policy and how it either helps or hurts kind of

0:23:14.040 --> 0:23:17.680
<v Speaker 1>some of the gaps that are in our society. They

0:23:17.680 --> 0:23:21.960
<v Speaker 1>think about it a lot and pay good attention to it.

0:23:23.480 --> 0:23:27.000
<v Speaker 1>That is the one that generates income and wealth disparity

0:23:27.080 --> 0:23:32.399
<v Speaker 1>numbers to make sure that it's well distributed publicly and

0:23:32.480 --> 0:23:35.840
<v Speaker 1>that policymakers are aware of it, and they and they

0:23:35.880 --> 0:23:41.120
<v Speaker 1>do it in a very a politic call UH. Almost

0:23:41.160 --> 0:23:45.600
<v Speaker 1>academic way. So the data is trustworthy, it's transparent, it's

0:23:45.600 --> 0:23:49.320
<v Speaker 1>widely circulated, and they talk about it. Uh. Nothing is

0:23:49.720 --> 0:23:53.320
<v Speaker 1>uh nothing is sort of kept in the background because

0:23:53.359 --> 0:23:56.760
<v Speaker 1>it comes from the FED. It's it's right there with

0:23:56.880 --> 0:24:01.040
<v Speaker 1>the highest level of credibility. J. Powell has also been

0:24:01.160 --> 0:24:05.000
<v Speaker 1>very proactive, as you've probably heard him say, being out

0:24:05.040 --> 0:24:10.040
<v Speaker 1>in town meetings and meeting with minority communities and those

0:24:10.080 --> 0:24:13.760
<v Speaker 1>parts of our society that have have not done as

0:24:13.800 --> 0:24:18.000
<v Speaker 1>well over time as some of the others. And they

0:24:18.040 --> 0:24:24.439
<v Speaker 1>were very pleased to see historic progress made in in

0:24:24.440 --> 0:24:30.560
<v Speaker 1>income levels with some of the historically less privileged minority areas.

0:24:31.840 --> 0:24:34.320
<v Speaker 1>And of course one of the one of the tragedies

0:24:35.680 --> 0:24:39.320
<v Speaker 1>among many within the minority communities right now is a

0:24:39.320 --> 0:24:43.520
<v Speaker 1>lot of that is rolling back because of course, uh,

0:24:43.600 --> 0:24:48.359
<v Speaker 1>that's where many of the joblessness numbers have come from. First.

0:24:49.920 --> 0:24:52.760
<v Speaker 1>So Stephen, before we let you go, I just gotta

0:24:52.800 --> 0:24:56.199
<v Speaker 1>ask you, because we are thinking so much about reopening, uh,

0:24:56.440 --> 0:24:59.359
<v Speaker 1>even cautiously here in the Tri state area in New

0:24:59.400 --> 0:25:03.760
<v Speaker 1>York City specifically, what's the most important data to look

0:25:03.800 --> 0:25:06.800
<v Speaker 1>at when it comes to reopening. It's even from a

0:25:06.880 --> 0:25:11.960
<v Speaker 1>national or or a regional perspective. In your estimation, probably

0:25:12.000 --> 0:25:14.760
<v Speaker 1>the most important data to keep an eye on is

0:25:14.440 --> 0:25:17.320
<v Speaker 1>the is the public health data, because at the end

0:25:17.320 --> 0:25:21.320
<v Speaker 1>of the day, UH, people will individuals will only be

0:25:21.400 --> 0:25:24.879
<v Speaker 1>comfortable going back to work and being fully productive and

0:25:25.000 --> 0:25:29.560
<v Speaker 1>being out as active consumers again if they feel safe,

0:25:30.119 --> 0:25:37.360
<v Speaker 1>if they believe that that the government, society, workplace, our

0:25:37.440 --> 0:25:41.320
<v Speaker 1>state and local governments in particular, are are paying attention

0:25:41.400 --> 0:25:44.840
<v Speaker 1>to the environment in which they work in shop, that

0:25:45.000 --> 0:25:50.000
<v Speaker 1>personal protective equipment is available, that testing and contract contact

0:25:50.040 --> 0:25:54.760
<v Speaker 1>tracing is being done efficiently. Uh. And of course everyone

0:25:54.840 --> 0:25:58.199
<v Speaker 1>is paying attention to the latest news on the vaccines

0:25:58.240 --> 0:26:01.240
<v Speaker 1>and therapeutics and and that been a big market driver

0:26:01.840 --> 0:26:06.359
<v Speaker 1>over the last month. So we are paying attention to

0:26:06.960 --> 0:26:11.320
<v Speaker 1>what's happening in the public health area and believe that

0:26:11.320 --> 0:26:15.280
<v Speaker 1>that will be the principal driver ultimately for how quickly

0:26:15.280 --> 0:26:18.240
<v Speaker 1>the recovery happens. Right, the ultimate oversight right in our

0:26:18.280 --> 0:26:21.160
<v Speaker 1>expectations about it and what we kind of expect our

0:26:21.240 --> 0:26:23.679
<v Speaker 1>leaders in society to take care of us. I'm Steven,

0:26:23.800 --> 0:26:27.240
<v Speaker 1>always thoughtful and really appreciate your time. Steve Skanky, Chief

0:26:27.280 --> 0:26:29.880
<v Speaker 1>Economic Advisory kill Point, former U S. Treasury and White

0:26:29.880 --> 0:26:33.240
<v Speaker 1>House National Security Council staff member joining us. Jason once

0:26:33.240 --> 0:26:35.800
<v Speaker 1>again on the phone from Washington, d C. You're listening

0:26:35.880 --> 0:26:39.680
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly

0:26:39.880 --> 0:26:43.480
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. Well, now, as we try to do

0:26:43.720 --> 0:26:46.560
<v Speaker 1>most weeks, sometimes multiple times a week because we just

0:26:46.680 --> 0:26:49.520
<v Speaker 1>need his insights that much, let's turn to Andy Brown,

0:26:49.520 --> 0:26:54.800
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg New Economy Editorial Director. Uh, he's got a provocative column.

0:26:55.200 --> 0:26:59.120
<v Speaker 1>Maybe not so provocative these days, given everything and how

0:26:59.160 --> 0:27:02.879
<v Speaker 1>everything is up. I doubt another lost decade is coming in.

0:27:03.000 --> 0:27:06.159
<v Speaker 1>Dejoins on the phone from New Hampshire. Alright, break it

0:27:06.200 --> 0:27:09.399
<v Speaker 1>down for us. A B. What are you seeing? Yeah,

0:27:09.440 --> 0:27:12.399
<v Speaker 1>so we've you know, the the the epicenter of the

0:27:12.440 --> 0:27:17.639
<v Speaker 1>coronavirus is now shifted to Latin America, and so the

0:27:17.680 --> 0:27:21.560
<v Speaker 1>New economy we're really focused now on what is going

0:27:21.560 --> 0:27:26.520
<v Speaker 1>to be the fallout on the world developing countries. And

0:27:26.760 --> 0:27:29.639
<v Speaker 1>you know, what we're seeing is the good news. If

0:27:29.680 --> 0:27:31.880
<v Speaker 1>you can talk about good news and an epidemic, maybe

0:27:31.920 --> 0:27:34.520
<v Speaker 1>it's best to say that the less bad news is

0:27:34.560 --> 0:27:39.880
<v Speaker 1>that the most dire predictions are the economists and epidemiologists

0:27:40.720 --> 0:27:42.879
<v Speaker 1>um about the impact that this was going to have

0:27:43.000 --> 0:27:47.399
<v Speaker 1>on the developing world just hasn't actually come to pass UM.

0:27:47.600 --> 0:27:51.520
<v Speaker 1>And that's particularly true in Africa, where the United Nations

0:27:51.560 --> 0:27:54.960
<v Speaker 1>just a few weeks ago I was talking about potentially

0:27:55.280 --> 0:27:58.760
<v Speaker 1>more than a billion infections and three more than three

0:27:58.840 --> 0:28:04.560
<v Speaker 1>million deaths and multiple famines of biblical proportions and and

0:28:04.680 --> 0:28:09.280
<v Speaker 1>really sort of um creating these and of the world scenarios.

0:28:09.320 --> 0:28:14.040
<v Speaker 1>And that hasn't that hasn't happened. UM. It's also I mean,

0:28:14.119 --> 0:28:17.680
<v Speaker 1>right now Africa, you know, according to John's Hopkins University,

0:28:17.720 --> 0:28:20.000
<v Speaker 1>which is wasn't you know, some of the most reliable

0:28:20.080 --> 0:28:22.040
<v Speaker 1>data that we have that there's only been a hundred

0:28:22.040 --> 0:28:25.520
<v Speaker 1>and fifty thousand infections in the whole of Africa. Of course,

0:28:25.520 --> 0:28:31.880
<v Speaker 1>that's lowballing the the total because Africa hasn't had widespread testing. UM.

0:28:32.160 --> 0:28:35.159
<v Speaker 1>The The other sort of piece of good news, I

0:28:35.200 --> 0:28:39.400
<v Speaker 1>guess is that you know, it's it's actually emerging economies

0:28:39.400 --> 0:28:44.680
<v Speaker 1>that are leading the global uh economic recovery UM. And

0:28:44.840 --> 0:28:47.320
<v Speaker 1>and the countries that are performing best are the ones

0:28:47.440 --> 0:28:51.600
<v Speaker 1>that have been most competent at dealing with COVID nineteen.

0:28:51.640 --> 0:28:54.800
<v Speaker 1>And that's been you know, by and large countries in

0:28:54.840 --> 0:29:00.240
<v Speaker 1>East Asia, led by China, South Korea UM and tai one,

0:29:01.080 --> 0:29:04.680
<v Speaker 1>which was of course and an exemplar. So that's kind

0:29:04.720 --> 0:29:08.360
<v Speaker 1>of on the on the positive side in a sense

0:29:08.600 --> 0:29:12.000
<v Speaker 1>of of the balance. UM. You know, the that the

0:29:12.680 --> 0:29:15.640
<v Speaker 1>bad news is that this this this epidemic is going

0:29:15.680 --> 0:29:20.880
<v Speaker 1>to dramatically widen global inequality. You know, the rich countries

0:29:20.920 --> 0:29:24.200
<v Speaker 1>of the world have been able to you know, spend

0:29:24.680 --> 0:29:28.960
<v Speaker 1>literally trillions of dollars on on stimulus, plugging income gaps

0:29:29.000 --> 0:29:33.800
<v Speaker 1>but workers, plugging revenue shortfalls for companies, and you know,

0:29:34.000 --> 0:29:37.560
<v Speaker 1>countries in Latin American Africa simply haven't been able to

0:29:37.600 --> 0:29:40.520
<v Speaker 1>do that. And to the extent that they can UM

0:29:40.680 --> 0:29:44.040
<v Speaker 1>borrow now to UM you know, to support their economies,

0:29:44.040 --> 0:29:46.240
<v Speaker 1>they're having to do it at higher interest rates. So

0:29:46.320 --> 0:29:50.080
<v Speaker 1>now they have this additional burden of debt UM you know,

0:29:50.160 --> 0:29:54.800
<v Speaker 1>on top of plunging currencies, on top of failing trade UM.

0:29:54.880 --> 0:29:57.120
<v Speaker 1>And that's not before we even get into sort of

0:29:57.160 --> 0:30:01.080
<v Speaker 1>these other issues around long term issues of of climate change.

0:30:01.160 --> 0:30:05.760
<v Speaker 1>So you know, they net net outcome UM is that

0:30:05.840 --> 0:30:09.640
<v Speaker 1>you're going to have a much deeper uh divide in

0:30:09.640 --> 0:30:11.840
<v Speaker 1>in in the global economy between the haves and the

0:30:11.880 --> 0:30:14.760
<v Speaker 1>have nots, and then even between emerging economies between those

0:30:14.800 --> 0:30:17.440
<v Speaker 1>in Africa, Latin America and then the economies of East

0:30:17.480 --> 0:30:19.520
<v Speaker 1>Asia of course, which which you're going to going to

0:30:19.560 --> 0:30:22.040
<v Speaker 1>be come out of this pretty well. So you know,

0:30:22.080 --> 0:30:25.640
<v Speaker 1>you are really knocking back development in large parts of

0:30:25.680 --> 0:30:28.880
<v Speaker 1>the world by many, many years. Well, this is you know, Andy,

0:30:28.920 --> 0:30:31.160
<v Speaker 1>what I love about your story. It's like if you

0:30:31.200 --> 0:30:33.240
<v Speaker 1>were scientists and you were going looking at a cell

0:30:33.280 --> 0:30:36.080
<v Speaker 1>and you keep going through, you know, smaller and smaller layers,

0:30:36.080 --> 0:30:37.640
<v Speaker 1>and I feel like that's what you do in terms

0:30:37.640 --> 0:30:40.720
<v Speaker 1>of the viruses impact on the world. Right, differences among

0:30:40.760 --> 0:30:43.479
<v Speaker 1>developed nations, then you have developers, is developing, and then

0:30:43.520 --> 0:30:46.240
<v Speaker 1>the more you break it down, there's differences even in

0:30:46.240 --> 0:30:49.280
<v Speaker 1>the developing markets. You though, go as far to say

0:30:49.320 --> 0:30:54.880
<v Speaker 1>another lost decade is coming for emerging market How how

0:30:54.920 --> 0:30:58.400
<v Speaker 1>do you anticipate that that might play out? Then well,

0:30:58.440 --> 0:31:00.080
<v Speaker 1>if you if you look, you know, we had a

0:31:00.160 --> 0:31:04.400
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg story UM today by our Bloomberg's economics team. They're

0:31:04.400 --> 0:31:08.360
<v Speaker 1>talking about the Brazilian economy shrinking by six percent is

0:31:09.480 --> 0:31:12.560
<v Speaker 1>um you know other some of the other major economies

0:31:12.560 --> 0:31:16.360
<v Speaker 1>in Latin America, Peru, Mexico are predicted to shrink by

0:31:16.360 --> 0:31:19.760
<v Speaker 1>similar amounts. So you could say, actually, right off the bat,

0:31:19.840 --> 0:31:23.640
<v Speaker 1>we've got a decade of of of lost growth there um.

0:31:23.680 --> 0:31:25.680
<v Speaker 1>But for many of these countries, you know, they now

0:31:26.040 --> 0:31:29.760
<v Speaker 1>they don't have the resources to invest in social infrastructure,

0:31:29.920 --> 0:31:35.040
<v Speaker 1>in in education, in healthcare. Everybody's talking about, you know,

0:31:35.160 --> 0:31:39.520
<v Speaker 1>the the the the necessity of investing in the digital

0:31:39.520 --> 0:31:41.800
<v Speaker 1>economy coming out of this. That this is going to

0:31:41.880 --> 0:31:45.200
<v Speaker 1>be um you know, and and an area where all

0:31:45.320 --> 0:31:48.040
<v Speaker 1>countries are going to have to uh, you know, pour

0:31:48.120 --> 0:31:50.959
<v Speaker 1>their resources as well. You know, Latin America, Africa just

0:31:51.000 --> 0:31:53.240
<v Speaker 1>doesn't have the don't in the countries, they don't have

0:31:53.280 --> 0:31:56.520
<v Speaker 1>the capacity to do that. So hence this you know

0:31:56.560 --> 0:31:59.240
<v Speaker 1>there there are something like don Besa Moyo. She was

0:31:59.280 --> 0:32:02.200
<v Speaker 1>on our newer Car to Me a Conversation series the

0:32:02.200 --> 0:32:04.320
<v Speaker 1>other day. She says, what we need for Africa is

0:32:04.360 --> 0:32:06.760
<v Speaker 1>a martiall plan and not going to be able to

0:32:06.800 --> 0:32:08.680
<v Speaker 1>dig their way out of this on their own. They

0:32:08.680 --> 0:32:12.680
<v Speaker 1>need they need massive infusions of capital, um, you know,

0:32:12.840 --> 0:32:15.280
<v Speaker 1>from from the United States, from Europe, just as just

0:32:15.360 --> 0:32:18.840
<v Speaker 1>as you had this US effort to rebuild Europe after

0:32:18.880 --> 0:32:21.400
<v Speaker 1>the World War Two. It's another thoughtful piece and you

0:32:21.440 --> 0:32:23.920
<v Speaker 1>also do wonder about you know where we need China

0:32:23.960 --> 0:32:25.240
<v Speaker 1>may be and all of this, they have spent so

0:32:25.320 --> 0:32:30.280
<v Speaker 1>much money on the emerging areas um before interne of

0:32:30.320 --> 0:32:33.680
<v Speaker 1>tapping resources but then also providing money for those areas.

0:32:33.680 --> 0:32:36.920
<v Speaker 1>So you do wonder um where they should what their

0:32:37.000 --> 0:32:39.440
<v Speaker 1>role should be going forward. Another provocative piece and thoughtful

0:32:39.480 --> 0:32:43.560
<v Speaker 1>piece by Andy Brown, editorial director. Andy thank you Bloomberg

0:32:43.600 --> 0:32:45.560
<v Speaker 1>New Economy on the phone from New Hampshire. All Right,

0:32:45.560 --> 0:32:48.080
<v Speaker 1>you're listening to Bloomberg Business Week cal Master along with

0:32:48.200 --> 0:32:50.680
<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly, and we're just about twelve minutes away from

0:32:50.720 --> 0:32:54.160
<v Speaker 1>the closing bell on this Monday, and we continue to see,

0:32:54.200 --> 0:32:57.880
<v Speaker 1>as you just heard from Charlie Pellett, that rally continuing.

0:32:57.880 --> 0:33:00.959
<v Speaker 1>In fact, we're just covering pretty much off our highs

0:33:00.960 --> 0:33:05.040
<v Speaker 1>of the session, but nonetheless stocks continuing to grind Highermzing

0:33:05.160 --> 0:33:08.000
<v Speaker 1>it is time, I know, I don't I mean, I

0:33:08.080 --> 0:33:10.840
<v Speaker 1>still I don't know. Well, I feel like disconnect between

0:33:10.880 --> 0:33:13.200
<v Speaker 1>broader world and the markets, but I also feel like

0:33:13.280 --> 0:33:17.000
<v Speaker 1>it's indicative of who is in the financial markets, who's investing,

0:33:17.080 --> 0:33:19.320
<v Speaker 1>versus kind of the rest of the world and some

0:33:19.400 --> 0:33:21.720
<v Speaker 1>of what ails us in certainly a large part of

0:33:21.720 --> 0:33:24.640
<v Speaker 1>our society Jason absolutely. All right, Well, let's get to

0:33:24.680 --> 0:33:27.200
<v Speaker 1>the Drive to the Close today with Mike Chalker. He

0:33:27.280 --> 0:33:30.480
<v Speaker 1>is portfolio manager senior analyst at LM Capital Group, looking

0:33:30.520 --> 0:33:33.200
<v Speaker 1>after about four billion dollars journing us on the phone

0:33:33.520 --> 0:33:37.880
<v Speaker 1>from San Diego. All right, So Mike, we're scratching our

0:33:37.880 --> 0:33:40.560
<v Speaker 1>heads as as we continue to at this market that

0:33:40.640 --> 0:33:43.920
<v Speaker 1>grinds higher. You just heard Charlie Pett break down the

0:33:43.960 --> 0:33:47.320
<v Speaker 1>numbers and Carol referenced them as well. What do you

0:33:47.400 --> 0:33:49.680
<v Speaker 1>make of this market? What do you see in the market,

0:33:49.800 --> 0:33:52.840
<v Speaker 1>and how do you account for what we see in

0:33:53.040 --> 0:33:56.440
<v Speaker 1>quote unquote the real world and the real economy. Very

0:33:56.440 --> 0:33:58.560
<v Speaker 1>good afternoon, guys, Thanks for having me. Yeah, you know,

0:33:58.640 --> 0:34:01.480
<v Speaker 1>it really is been of a and under for some UM.

0:34:01.520 --> 0:34:04.760
<v Speaker 1>For other example, the answer is fairly simple, and that

0:34:04.760 --> 0:34:07.560
<v Speaker 1>would be the Federal Reserve. You know, it is really

0:34:07.600 --> 0:34:11.279
<v Speaker 1>the market maker ever since it announced the accident, wanted

0:34:11.320 --> 0:34:14.160
<v Speaker 1>to take back in March, and our feeling and the

0:34:14.239 --> 0:34:16.840
<v Speaker 1>firm is that and the fixed thing comes side at least,

0:34:16.880 --> 0:34:19.360
<v Speaker 1>and and it's been echoing over to the equity side.

0:34:19.719 --> 0:34:22.320
<v Speaker 1>You're having a lot of market participants try to front

0:34:22.440 --> 0:34:26.319
<v Speaker 1>run UM the FEDS participation, and so if you feel

0:34:26.320 --> 0:34:29.120
<v Speaker 1>like you can get in the securities and the risk

0:34:29.280 --> 0:34:32.440
<v Speaker 1>that you're comfortable taking, and then maybe later selves at

0:34:32.440 --> 0:34:34.800
<v Speaker 1>a higher price. When the FED steps into the market,

0:34:34.840 --> 0:34:37.160
<v Speaker 1>which you know it's only just beginning to do so

0:34:37.320 --> 0:34:41.520
<v Speaker 1>with its primary and secondary credit facilities, then that's a

0:34:41.560 --> 0:34:44.319
<v Speaker 1>great big uh. You know, then we'll continue to maybe

0:34:44.320 --> 0:34:47.200
<v Speaker 1>step take a step back after that point and really

0:34:47.239 --> 0:34:50.880
<v Speaker 1>see if the economy can now mimic the v recovery

0:34:51.200 --> 0:34:54.560
<v Speaker 1>that the market to that. Yeah, that's interesting and I

0:34:54.600 --> 0:34:58.000
<v Speaker 1>do feel like, um a million questions here. First of all,

0:34:58.120 --> 0:34:59.640
<v Speaker 1>let me ask you, since it is a FED week,

0:34:59.680 --> 0:35:01.160
<v Speaker 1>we have a FED meeting, do you expect the FED

0:35:01.239 --> 0:35:03.959
<v Speaker 1>to continue to be really supportive or do you think,

0:35:04.120 --> 0:35:07.759
<v Speaker 1>based on that Friday's jobs report last Friday, that they're

0:35:07.800 --> 0:35:09.680
<v Speaker 1>going to maybe start to say, well, you know, we

0:35:09.719 --> 0:35:11.279
<v Speaker 1>can start to back off. I mean, we've seen the

0:35:11.320 --> 0:35:13.920
<v Speaker 1>back off in terms of asset purchases, but I do

0:35:14.040 --> 0:35:17.400
<v Speaker 1>wonder if you think they will say more on that front.

0:35:18.800 --> 0:35:21.040
<v Speaker 1>I don't think they will. Um, it was interesting to

0:35:21.080 --> 0:35:23.239
<v Speaker 1>see them back off the asset purchases. I was a

0:35:23.280 --> 0:35:25.640
<v Speaker 1>little bit premature, I'm gon our view from them. I

0:35:25.640 --> 0:35:27.480
<v Speaker 1>thought they would be a little bit more supportive. The

0:35:27.520 --> 0:35:30.560
<v Speaker 1>job's number on Friday, of course, was a rocket number.

0:35:30.880 --> 0:35:34.520
<v Speaker 1>I'm surprised almost everyone on the street, including us, But

0:35:34.600 --> 0:35:36.600
<v Speaker 1>it does make a little bit of sense. As we're

0:35:36.640 --> 0:35:40.359
<v Speaker 1>beginning to reopen the economy. All these restaurants, all these

0:35:40.360 --> 0:35:42.920
<v Speaker 1>small businesses that did have to lay off workers, well

0:35:43.040 --> 0:35:44.960
<v Speaker 1>now they're in a rush right there, in a rush

0:35:45.000 --> 0:35:48.880
<v Speaker 1>to bring back as much employees as they need to

0:35:49.000 --> 0:35:52.120
<v Speaker 1>sufficiently stay open. Now the question is did they get

0:35:52.200 --> 0:35:54.480
<v Speaker 1>them all once? I'll swoop did they just quickly bring

0:35:54.520 --> 0:35:56.840
<v Speaker 1>everybody back? And this is you know, maybe thirty or

0:35:58.080 --> 0:36:00.400
<v Speaker 1>of their employee rates that they had they mentioned that

0:36:00.440 --> 0:36:03.000
<v Speaker 1>they had before we went to COVID. And then the

0:36:03.120 --> 0:36:06.279
<v Speaker 1>question remains for the rest of the economics recovery, Well,

0:36:06.280 --> 0:36:09.080
<v Speaker 1>how many jobs are going to be permanently lost, because

0:36:09.120 --> 0:36:11.440
<v Speaker 1>there will be a significant number there will be four

0:36:11.520 --> 0:36:14.920
<v Speaker 1>or five, six, seven million, who knows number of jobs

0:36:14.920 --> 0:36:19.040
<v Speaker 1>that will not return. So how do you put money

0:36:19.080 --> 0:36:21.480
<v Speaker 1>to work at a time like this? And there are

0:36:21.520 --> 0:36:24.920
<v Speaker 1>certain sectors that feel a little bit better as you

0:36:24.960 --> 0:36:28.719
<v Speaker 1>synthesize all of that, and presumably, uh, it might gives

0:36:28.760 --> 0:36:32.320
<v Speaker 1>you look at a a reopening economy. We're obviously laser

0:36:32.360 --> 0:36:35.000
<v Speaker 1>focused on it here on the East Coast and especially

0:36:35.000 --> 0:36:37.279
<v Speaker 1>being in and around New York City and sort of

0:36:37.320 --> 0:36:41.279
<v Speaker 1>what that looks like and how much that will influence

0:36:41.840 --> 0:36:48.120
<v Speaker 1>not just investor sentiment, but ultimately earnings and economic behavior. Right,

0:36:48.600 --> 0:36:52.080
<v Speaker 1>So we've done a couple of things. Um, obviously, you know,

0:36:52.120 --> 0:36:56.200
<v Speaker 1>there's been an incredible rotation on an incredible spread compression

0:36:56.200 --> 0:36:58.680
<v Speaker 1>on the credit side. And if for a minute, we

0:36:58.719 --> 0:37:00.680
<v Speaker 1>can just step back and talk about where rates are

0:37:00.800 --> 0:37:04.040
<v Speaker 1>right now, right, so the belly and the early part

0:37:04.040 --> 0:37:06.040
<v Speaker 1>of the curve, or excuse me, the front part of

0:37:06.040 --> 0:37:09.520
<v Speaker 1>the curve two and three year paper being a you know,

0:37:09.880 --> 0:37:13.280
<v Speaker 1>low to mid twenty basis points doesn't really entice anybody

0:37:13.280 --> 0:37:15.680
<v Speaker 1>on the treasury side. You're not gonna have anybody continue

0:37:15.760 --> 0:37:18.200
<v Speaker 1>to think, oh, let's go ahead and buy treasuries because

0:37:18.239 --> 0:37:20.960
<v Speaker 1>we can pick up twenty six basis points. Um. The

0:37:21.040 --> 0:37:23.759
<v Speaker 1>risk there, the risk reward didn't didn't worked it. So

0:37:24.520 --> 0:37:26.239
<v Speaker 1>a lot of what we've been doing is taking some

0:37:26.320 --> 0:37:30.360
<v Speaker 1>of that allegation moving into a credit name that we

0:37:30.440 --> 0:37:34.080
<v Speaker 1>like in particularly as you've seen in the last week

0:37:34.160 --> 0:37:37.080
<v Speaker 1>or last two weeks, the incredible steepening that's gone on

0:37:37.120 --> 0:37:40.000
<v Speaker 1>in the treasury curve. I think that's exactly the momentum

0:37:40.040 --> 0:37:42.919
<v Speaker 1>in the move that the FED wants to see, whether

0:37:42.960 --> 0:37:44.920
<v Speaker 1>they'll say it or admit it or not. I believe

0:37:45.000 --> 0:37:47.360
<v Speaker 1>there is some type of yield curve control that is

0:37:47.440 --> 0:37:51.720
<v Speaker 1>happening um, probably inadvertently, but it's working out to their favor.

0:37:51.800 --> 0:37:55.319
<v Speaker 1>They want rates low, but they want a steeper curve um.

0:37:55.360 --> 0:37:57.400
<v Speaker 1>And so for us, a great place to be is

0:37:57.440 --> 0:38:00.680
<v Speaker 1>in the financial banking sector, which we've been overweight for

0:38:00.680 --> 0:38:03.040
<v Speaker 1>a good part of a year, if not more. I mean,

0:38:03.120 --> 0:38:06.120
<v Speaker 1>we're continuing to add to those names some people that

0:38:06.160 --> 0:38:09.400
<v Speaker 1>have been chasing the beaten down names like energies and

0:38:09.440 --> 0:38:12.160
<v Speaker 1>cruises and the airlines. We think that will end up

0:38:12.280 --> 0:38:15.960
<v Speaker 1>rotating out and just further the trade moving into finance.

0:38:16.040 --> 0:38:18.719
<v Speaker 1>And thanks as well, Hey Mike, before we go. I

0:38:19.040 --> 0:38:21.000
<v Speaker 1>am curious though, when you look at some of the

0:38:21.000 --> 0:38:22.959
<v Speaker 1>current events that are going on in our world, whether

0:38:22.960 --> 0:38:25.080
<v Speaker 1>it's the virus, whether it's the last couple of weeks

0:38:25.080 --> 0:38:28.760
<v Speaker 1>from Minneapolis, and you know, once again we're talking about

0:38:29.160 --> 0:38:31.520
<v Speaker 1>the gaps in our society and the people who are

0:38:31.520 --> 0:38:35.040
<v Speaker 1>being left behind once again, and I do wonder how

0:38:35.160 --> 0:38:37.319
<v Speaker 1>you look at it with an investment I and I

0:38:37.320 --> 0:38:39.600
<v Speaker 1>do wonder if you think about maybe some of the

0:38:39.680 --> 0:38:43.120
<v Speaker 1>changes that need to come about, um and and and

0:38:43.160 --> 0:38:47.160
<v Speaker 1>how investors specifically can really vote with where they put

0:38:47.200 --> 0:38:51.080
<v Speaker 1>their investment dollars. Well, it's really tough. I mean, that's

0:38:51.120 --> 0:38:53.560
<v Speaker 1>a really tough question. It's a really tough topic. Um.

0:38:53.600 --> 0:38:55.520
<v Speaker 1>You know, I was watching a segment today about how

0:38:55.600 --> 0:38:58.520
<v Speaker 1>E s G has really become part of the forefront

0:38:58.920 --> 0:39:01.520
<v Speaker 1>and a lot of investor is mind and particularly what's

0:39:01.560 --> 0:39:04.040
<v Speaker 1>what's happened in the past couple of days. Um, you know,

0:39:04.080 --> 0:39:08.960
<v Speaker 1>I'd really like to see that sort of explained, right.

0:39:09.000 --> 0:39:12.040
<v Speaker 1>And then not just environmental, social, and governance, but you know,

0:39:12.120 --> 0:39:14.759
<v Speaker 1>particularly into the social aspect. You get a lot of

0:39:14.800 --> 0:39:17.640
<v Speaker 1>people that are really concerned about their environmental exposure and

0:39:17.960 --> 0:39:20.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, not being in the coal producers and such.

0:39:20.480 --> 0:39:22.239
<v Speaker 1>But you know, I think what's going on in the

0:39:22.280 --> 0:39:24.400
<v Speaker 1>past week or so, it really brings up to the

0:39:24.440 --> 0:39:27.799
<v Speaker 1>forefront more of the social and the social injustices. And

0:39:27.840 --> 0:39:31.359
<v Speaker 1>as a money manager, it's really tough to see what

0:39:31.440 --> 0:39:34.600
<v Speaker 1>we think of you know, the top tier percent of

0:39:34.920 --> 0:39:38.880
<v Speaker 1>the people to make up our economy continue to succeeded,

0:39:38.920 --> 0:39:42.480
<v Speaker 1>Asset prices rise, knowing that there is a large group

0:39:42.520 --> 0:39:45.120
<v Speaker 1>of people that aren't able to participate in this because

0:39:45.160 --> 0:39:48.240
<v Speaker 1>of their socioeconomic factors and they're kind of left behind.

0:39:48.680 --> 0:39:52.240
<v Speaker 1>Um So I think really that further further the divide

0:39:52.239 --> 0:39:55.000
<v Speaker 1>in our country. And and like I said, as a manager,

0:39:55.000 --> 0:39:56.600
<v Speaker 1>it is sort of a tough thing to watch. But

0:39:57.000 --> 0:39:58.759
<v Speaker 1>of course, you know, our our our duty is to

0:39:58.840 --> 0:40:01.799
<v Speaker 1>make our clients money. But um I really, I really

0:40:01.800 --> 0:40:04.000
<v Speaker 1>do feel that there is some some more that needs

0:40:04.000 --> 0:40:06.839
<v Speaker 1>to be done on the E s G side and

0:40:06.960 --> 0:40:09.799
<v Speaker 1>frankly on the policy side. But yeah, that's a that's

0:40:09.800 --> 0:40:11.759
<v Speaker 1>the topic that we we don't hand that we only

0:40:11.840 --> 0:40:15.160
<v Speaker 1>kind of try to keep watching. All right, Well, good

0:40:15.200 --> 0:40:17.160
<v Speaker 1>to catch up with you. Thanks for the insights. Mike

0:40:17.200 --> 0:40:20.360
<v Speaker 1>Tarker is portfolio manager and senior analysts for LM Capital

0:40:20.440 --> 0:40:25.520
<v Speaker 1>Group on the phone from San Diego. Thanks so much

0:40:25.520 --> 0:40:28.440
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0:40:28.440 --> 0:40:31.600
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0:40:31.640 --> 0:40:33.439
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