1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,400 Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making 2 00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:05,920 Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know 3 00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news 4 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:10,840 Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is 5 00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier, 6 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:17,920 Speaker 1: and more trustworthy mainstream by becoming a Breaking Points Premium 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money 8 00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:23,400 Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and 9 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage 10 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:28,640 Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most 11 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:32,320 Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for? 12 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:38,479 Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody, 13 00:00:38,560 --> 00:00:40,840 Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today. 14 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:43,720 Speaker 1: When do we have crystal Indeed, we do some very 15 00:00:44,159 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 1: very ominous warning signs coming from Russia about the potential 16 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 1: threat of them using tactical nuclear weapons. Frankly, it's kind 17 00:00:51,360 --> 00:00:53,280 Speaker 1: of terrifying, and I think the media has not taken 18 00:00:53,320 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 1: it seriously, this risk whatsoever. Finally, Washington seems to be like, oh, 19 00:00:57,360 --> 00:00:59,320 Speaker 1: maybe this is something we should think about. So we 20 00:00:59,440 --> 00:01:02,320 Speaker 1: have a d dive into that, into the Ukrainian response, 21 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 1: into this administration's response, the very latest on that sabotage 22 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 1: of the nord Stream pipeline. We're going to go into 23 00:01:09,240 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 1: all of that. We've also got a couple of political 24 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:14,520 Speaker 1: updates for you. That congressional stock ban that they were 25 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: looking at last week, I know you're going to be 26 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 1: shocked to learn it just didn't just didn't come together 27 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 1: a sager, I know they really wanted to get it done, 28 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:24,840 Speaker 1: but they just couldn't get it. We'll dig into those details. Also, 29 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:28,039 Speaker 1: a big move at the Daily Show, Trevor Noah moving on, 30 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:29,920 Speaker 1: so we'll break all of that down for You've also 31 00:01:29,959 --> 00:01:33,039 Speaker 1: got Glenn Greenwald on this morning. Hopefully fingers Cross will 32 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:34,679 Speaker 1: be able to get him in to talk about the 33 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: results of the first round of voting down in Brazil. 34 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 1: Before we get to any of that, though our normal announcements, 35 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 1: live show, live show it up there on the screen, 36 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 1: we've been planning something extra special for everybody in Chicago. 37 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 1: It's going to be a lot of fun. Go ahead 38 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:50,960 Speaker 1: and buy tickets there and we're going to make sure 39 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 1: that it's going to be a great time for everybody, 40 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:54,840 Speaker 1: no matter where you're seated. We've got a lot of 41 00:01:54,840 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 1: participation and stuff that you really are going to be 42 00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:58,960 Speaker 1: able to see live. So I think it will be 43 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:01,440 Speaker 1: very special. There's a link down there in the description 44 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 1: if you want to go ahead and nab your tickets. 45 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 1: We got the hundreds of you already have signed ups. 46 00:02:05,080 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 1: We're really really excited. Number trying. Let me just say, 47 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:09,840 Speaker 1: we're trying the things that are a little bit different, Yes, 48 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:13,840 Speaker 1: very different, a lot more audience participation. It's going to 49 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 1: be very interactive, so we're super excited. So guys, if 50 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 1: you can grab those tickets before they sell out, we're 51 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 1: psyched about that show. It's going to be an experience, 52 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:26,520 Speaker 1: live experience, not just a share an experience. Okay, all right, 53 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:28,920 Speaker 1: Number two, we got the discount going on right now. 54 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 1: Let's ahead and put that up there on the screen. 55 00:02:31,080 --> 00:02:34,919 Speaker 1: Counterpoints Counterpoints Friday. Man, they had a fantastic show on Friday. 56 00:02:35,120 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 1: I love like a legit fan of that show. Yeah, 57 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:39,200 Speaker 1: it is so so good. So they've just been doing 58 00:02:39,240 --> 00:02:41,519 Speaker 1: such a great job. Ryan and Emily over there breaking 59 00:02:41,520 --> 00:02:44,320 Speaker 1: some interesting news about our former employer that was interesting 60 00:02:44,360 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: to watch on our new channel. So anyway, I think 61 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 1: they're doing a great job. If you want to support 62 00:02:48,440 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 1: them and really just our expansion and maybe support the 63 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 1: mission of why we started this show. You got a 64 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 1: little bit of a taste on why exactly things like 65 00:02:55,600 --> 00:02:58,920 Speaker 1: that might have been happening with our old one. In 66 00:02:59,000 --> 00:03:01,960 Speaker 1: terms of what happened with Katie Helper, please we've got 67 00:03:02,000 --> 00:03:03,720 Speaker 1: a link down in the description. We got the discount 68 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 1: going on right now for annual members ten percent, and 69 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:08,400 Speaker 1: I think this will be the last week that we 70 00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:09,840 Speaker 1: offer it. So thank you all so much of those 71 00:03:09,840 --> 00:03:11,240 Speaker 1: who have taken advantage. It means a lot to us 72 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 1: and putting us aside. I think what happened with Katie 73 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:16,920 Speaker 1: Helper being silenced and censored over her critique of Israel 74 00:03:17,160 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 1: just shows you why it's so important to support independent media, 75 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:22,359 Speaker 1: because you know, even if you've got an outlet that 76 00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:25,400 Speaker 1: sort of postures like all orientti establishment ori, anti censorship, 77 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 1: et cetera, eventually you're going to find a line that 78 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:30,359 Speaker 1: you're not allowed to cross. And you know, that's why 79 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:34,200 Speaker 1: it's so important to not be beholden to corporate donors 80 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 1: or any sort of corporate overlord. So thank you guys 81 00:03:37,120 --> 00:03:39,240 Speaker 1: for supporting us and making it possible to do what 82 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 1: we do here. Yeah, that's right, there's no unofficial policies 83 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: of censorship here. I'm here to tell you that. Indeed. 84 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 1: All right, let's start with the nuclear issue. Now. I 85 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 1: think we've been trying to do a job were made 86 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 1: measured but also cover the seriousness. And I think what 87 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 1: you said is correct. I think it's very important when 88 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 1: discussing this not to fearmonger, and so let's just very 89 00:03:57,120 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 1: start with the very basic facts. Let's put this up 90 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,520 Speaker 1: there on the screen. Putin giving that speech on Friday 91 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:06,440 Speaker 1: with the official annexation of those four regions in eastern 92 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 1: Ukraine after the Sham referendum. Now, beyond the speech itself 93 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:14,040 Speaker 1: and the actual referendum, the points that we wanted to 94 00:04:14,120 --> 00:04:16,719 Speaker 1: zero in on were specifically what Putin was saying both 95 00:04:16,760 --> 00:04:19,960 Speaker 1: about the West and about opening and continuing the nuclear 96 00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 1: sable rattling that we have not seen in this world 97 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:26,320 Speaker 1: really since the Cuban missile crisis. And what he says 98 00:04:26,360 --> 00:04:30,040 Speaker 1: there specifically is that the last fifteen minutes crystal of 99 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 1: the speech, the word Ukraine was not mentioned one time. 100 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 1: It was all about posturing this as a united Russian 101 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 1: struggle against the West. Obviously that is to his domestic 102 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:46,119 Speaker 1: benefit because of the dramatically unpopular mobilization happening right there. 103 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:48,799 Speaker 1: The direct quote was the West has said for centuries 104 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 1: it is bringing freedom and democracy to the world. Everything 105 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:53,840 Speaker 1: is exactly the opposite. This is a long time kind 106 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 1: of putin Ism. I remember in two thousand and six 107 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:59,359 Speaker 1: Bush was lecturing him about democracy and he was like, 108 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:01,320 Speaker 1: we do not want the type of democracy that you 109 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:06,039 Speaker 1: have given to a rock. That was really which, you know, fairpoint. Really, 110 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 1: what I've seen from Putin is that two thousand and 111 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:13,000 Speaker 1: three onward, really the invasion of Iraq and really like 112 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:16,800 Speaker 1: becoming himself. It was in two thousand and seven there 113 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:18,840 Speaker 1: was this grand speech in the Munich Security Conference where 114 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:21,040 Speaker 1: he's basically like, all of you are hypocrites. I want 115 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:22,919 Speaker 1: nothing to do with you. It was like the official 116 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:25,040 Speaker 1: Russian break with the West. And this is kind of 117 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 1: the culmination of that, almost like a fifteen year effort 118 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:30,719 Speaker 1: of at one point being a semi friend of the 119 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 1: West and really now posing himself as the enemy. And 120 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:35,359 Speaker 1: the reason why I think that this speech was so 121 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:38,679 Speaker 1: important was not only for the referendum, but for making 122 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:41,520 Speaker 1: it clear in Putin's eyes that he views himself at 123 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 1: war with the United States and with NATO, even if 124 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:47,040 Speaker 1: we may not be in an exchange. Now, the reason 125 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 1: why that also matters is that whenever you posture yourself 126 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 1: as at war with the West and then you began 127 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:55,320 Speaker 1: your nuclear saber rattling, you're making it clear that Ukraine 128 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:59,760 Speaker 1: is not the audience. Here, the Washington, Berlin, Paris, these 129 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:04,400 Speaker 1: are the audiences the lawmakers and the policymakers in these regions. 130 00:06:04,440 --> 00:06:07,159 Speaker 1: And so he brings up the use of nuclear weapons 131 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 1: by the United States against Japan, Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Allied 132 00:06:11,040 --> 00:06:14,360 Speaker 1: bombings of German cities, the Korean and the Vietnam War, 133 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 1: kind of saying, look, you guys are the ones who 134 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:20,359 Speaker 1: created this scenario. Now we are way well fulfill that 135 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:23,560 Speaker 1: and the breaking of the nuclear taboo. Yes, and so 136 00:06:23,839 --> 00:06:28,120 Speaker 1: I mean, basically, he's saying, pointing accurately to messed up 137 00:06:28,160 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 1: things that the US has done throughout history, and then 138 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:35,159 Speaker 1: saying effectively that gives us justification to do the same 139 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,800 Speaker 1: messed up things. Two wrongs. In this instance, he's trying 140 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 1: to argue, make it right. I mean, and this is 141 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 1: effectively what he's been the case that he's been making 142 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 1: since they ultimately decided to invade Ukraine. And listen, we've 143 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:49,560 Speaker 1: covered here extensively. You know, the way that the US 144 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 1: in particular, the West in general, and NATO antagonized him 145 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:54,559 Speaker 1: made him feel like, even if it was not true, 146 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:57,640 Speaker 1: made him feel like we were sort of at war 147 00:06:57,680 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 1: with him, like we were out to get Russia, and 148 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:01,800 Speaker 1: so that all leads to this place. Of course, none 149 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:04,680 Speaker 1: if that takes his culpability away with this illegal invasion. 150 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 1: But you know what a lot of observers were saying 151 00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 1: is that this was the you know, he's used some 152 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 1: of this rhetoric before, etc. But this was the most 153 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 1: sort of concentrated anti US speech that they had seen 154 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:22,559 Speaker 1: him give. Yeah, and it was clearly designed to scare 155 00:07:22,600 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 1: the West and hold out the possibility of, hey, y'all 156 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:29,160 Speaker 1: drop the bombs first, and we're going to use everything 157 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:32,440 Speaker 1: that we need in order to defend our territorial integrity, 158 00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 1: which now you know, seems to include these four regions 159 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,520 Speaker 1: that they have just said, oh that we had these votes. 160 00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 1: It was free and fair democracy. Of course, during a 161 00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 1: time of war when we don't even know. I mean, 162 00:07:42,400 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 1: this is how insane these referendums are they can't even 163 00:07:45,120 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 1: say exactly where the borders are. And we'll get to 164 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:49,520 Speaker 1: a little bit more of that when we talk about 165 00:07:49,520 --> 00:07:53,440 Speaker 1: the most recent Ukrainian advances. But now they're saying, okay, 166 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 1: this is part of Russia as well. So that creates 167 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:59,240 Speaker 1: a very terrifying situation where it's like, okay, well, if 168 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 1: you're saying this is part of Russia, obviously there's an 169 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 1: act of war there. Our attacks in that area, is 170 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 1: that considered an attack on Russia. That's where this gets 171 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 1: extraordinarily dicey with regards to nuclear weapons, because ultimately, you know, 172 00:08:12,440 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 1: the last speech we covered last week, he says, okay, 173 00:08:14,400 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 1: this is not a bluff. Well, if you then go 174 00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 1: and strike inside of those areas that you're saying, this 175 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:23,280 Speaker 1: is my country and you don't respond, then it kind 176 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:26,520 Speaker 1: of takes away your threat and your power, which is 177 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 1: what nuclear you know, what nuclear threats are all about, 178 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 1: as scaring people and trying to I'm glad you said 179 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 1: that because I was going to bring that up, which 180 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 1: is that as much as I think it is very 181 00:08:33,840 --> 00:08:36,040 Speaker 1: important for the West to have clear red lines and 182 00:08:36,080 --> 00:08:40,520 Speaker 1: policies directed specifically to remove ambiguity from the situation the 183 00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:43,120 Speaker 1: same as set of Russia. You can't annex a country 184 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 1: then lose it the next day, right, or like the 185 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:48,200 Speaker 1: territory and then say yeah, no, but that part's not 186 00:08:48,280 --> 00:08:50,840 Speaker 1: Russia anymore. But this part is like, well you can't 187 00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:53,679 Speaker 1: like what, so Russia is wherever the front line is? 188 00:08:53,800 --> 00:08:56,079 Speaker 1: I mean, sure, you know, in effect, but where does 189 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:59,120 Speaker 1: the nuclear threat come from? Now? Of course hit that 190 00:08:59,240 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 1: ambiguities will be good for him, but that also leaves 191 00:09:02,800 --> 00:09:04,360 Speaker 1: a hell of a lot of room up to us. 192 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: We're like, well, how do we know when to start pushing? 193 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 1: And that's exactly kind of the fear of the uncertainty 194 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:11,679 Speaker 1: he wants to instill within us. That doesn't diminish, though, 195 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:14,080 Speaker 1: the seriousness of the situation. Let's put this up there 196 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 1: on the screen. You know, I think that take away 197 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 1: whatever anybody in the West is talking about. Let's take 198 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:21,440 Speaker 1: it from the Ukrainians themselves. Just yet. A couple of 199 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:24,720 Speaker 1: days ago, they said the deputy head of Ukrainian intelligence says, 200 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 1: quote the probability of Russia striking Ukraine with a tactical 201 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 1: nuclear weapon is very high. He says, quote. They will 202 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 1: target places along the front line with lots of personnel 203 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:39,680 Speaker 1: and equipment. Now, look, there's a lot of different ways 204 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:42,320 Speaker 1: to read that. Number one, maybe he's telling the truth. 205 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 1: Number two, maybe you should keep reading, because here's what 206 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:47,760 Speaker 1: he says. To stop them, we need more anti aircraft 207 00:09:47,760 --> 00:09:51,720 Speaker 1: systems and anti rocket systems. So obviously he's like, they're 208 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:53,839 Speaker 1: gonna do go and that's why you guys need to 209 00:09:53,880 --> 00:09:56,840 Speaker 1: give us everything under the sun in order to stop that. 210 00:09:57,000 --> 00:09:59,319 Speaker 1: So you got to take all of this with a 211 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: grain of salt. Putin has got his ambiguity, got his agenda. 212 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:06,120 Speaker 1: He wants us to stop all aid for Ukraine. Ukraine. Well, 213 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:08,080 Speaker 1: this is my problem with Ukraine is they can't make 214 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:10,679 Speaker 1: up their minds. First, Zelenski says, Putin will never nucas. 215 00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:12,840 Speaker 1: Now his deputy had it's like, no, no no, no, they're 216 00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 1: gonna nucas and that's why you kind of give us weapons. 217 00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 1: And I'm like, well, wake up your goddamn mind here, folks, 218 00:10:17,320 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 1: because I'm getting confused. Well because initially it was don't worry, 219 00:10:21,640 --> 00:10:23,319 Speaker 1: they're not gonna nucas, So you guys should be all 220 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 1: in with them. You should send us all these weapons. 221 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:27,679 Speaker 1: Now it's like they are gonna nucas. So it's too 222 00:10:27,720 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 1: late to stop them. So you got to send us 223 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 1: all these weapons, like you know, that's that's their approach 224 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 1: here in this situation. So let's go ahead and put 225 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 1: those results up on the screen. Here you can see 226 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 1: that Lula was ahead in the first round, but is 227 00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:43,679 Speaker 1: going to have to face Bolscenaro in that presidential runoff. 228 00:10:43,720 --> 00:10:46,520 Speaker 1: I think underperformed where the polls had him to a 229 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:49,480 Speaker 1: certain extent. But we have Glenn Greenwild here, Pulser Prize 230 00:10:49,480 --> 00:10:52,680 Speaker 1: winning journalists who, of course Liz and Brazil, has broken 231 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:57,520 Speaker 1: some of the most significant news about Lula and Bolsonaro specifically, 232 00:10:57,880 --> 00:10:59,599 Speaker 1: and he joins us. Now. Great to see Glenn, to 233 00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:02,680 Speaker 1: see with you, guys. I would love for you, for 234 00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 1: people who haven't followed Brazilian politics closely, to explain the 235 00:11:07,520 --> 00:11:10,840 Speaker 1: context here, why this election is so significant, why Lulu 236 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:12,959 Speaker 1: was in prison, how he got out of prison, and 237 00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 1: what this election really means in the Brazilian context. Sure, so, 238 00:11:17,280 --> 00:11:19,439 Speaker 1: I mean, just to begin with Brazil as an inherently 239 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:22,080 Speaker 1: important country and always has been throughout the Cold Wars, 240 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:26,320 Speaker 1: the second largest country in the Hemisphere. It's the largest 241 00:11:26,320 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 1: and their fore most influential country in Latin America. It 242 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:34,240 Speaker 1: has incredibly important resources and including enormous amounts of oil 243 00:11:34,320 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: reserves as well as the Amazon, which has become the 244 00:11:37,040 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 1: most important environmental resource. So Brazil just in and of 245 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 1: itself is a great concern now politically to the world. 246 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:48,280 Speaker 1: And when you add on top of that the fact 247 00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 1: that we have now a very polarized political system where 248 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 1: there are real differences between the party. We're not talking about, 249 00:11:56,840 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 1: you know, mid Tromney, mid Romney versus for Obama. We're 250 00:12:00,760 --> 00:12:04,560 Speaker 1: talking about two extremely different and radical ideologies that have 251 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:08,719 Speaker 1: now completely polarized. In the entire center has virtually disappeared. 252 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 1: There's a lot at stake in terms of the outcome 253 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 1: of not just the presidential election, but also the elections 254 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 1: beneath that for the House, for the Senate. And there's 255 00:12:18,280 --> 00:12:20,560 Speaker 1: a lot of interesting things that went on there that 256 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 1: I think are really worth talking about too. Yeah, absolutely so, Glenn. 257 00:12:24,080 --> 00:12:26,160 Speaker 1: What happened here in the election? I know that the 258 00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 1: polls that indicated that Lula might win enough to avoid 259 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 1: even a runoff, it appears that he performed I wouldn't 260 00:12:32,320 --> 00:12:36,080 Speaker 1: say significantly below that, but below that to a certain degree. 261 00:12:36,400 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 1: Does Brazil have the same polling problems that we do. 262 00:12:38,880 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 1: What were the major issues at stake between the two 263 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:46,240 Speaker 1: major candidates. I can't overstate saga, what a humiliating, a 264 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:50,520 Speaker 1: disastrous night it was for the polling industry in Brazil. 265 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:54,560 Speaker 1: I have not ever seen pulling this radically wrong in 266 00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: my life. I mean, on the presidential level, it wasn't 267 00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:03,560 Speaker 1: that terrible. There. I know polsters affirmatively asserting that Lula 268 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 1: would win somewhere predicting he would in the first round. 269 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 1: But even there, I don't think there was a single 270 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 1: polling company that are sort of in the top tier 271 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:17,439 Speaker 1: that had the difference any less than twelve to sixteen 272 00:13:17,520 --> 00:13:20,600 Speaker 1: points between Bolsonario and Lula, and Wula ended up only 273 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:25,040 Speaker 1: five points ahead. But the races that are most important 274 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:28,840 Speaker 1: right underneath that, like governorships in Rio di Jhonnario and 275 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:31,840 Speaker 1: some Polo and senators for those two impost important state. 276 00:13:32,640 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 1: I'll just give you a couple of examples, and they 277 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:39,080 Speaker 1: were all in favor of the left. In the senate 278 00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 1: race in some Paulo, there were two candidates, one on 279 00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 1: the left and a Bolshenardista, and the Canada polls had 280 00:13:46,200 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 1: the candidate on the left winning by fifteen points and 281 00:13:49,720 --> 00:13:53,719 Speaker 1: instead the Bolsonarisha candidate won by twenty one points. That's 282 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 1: a swing of thirty six points. Here in Rio Ji Jannio, 283 00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:02,840 Speaker 1: they had the Bolsonarisha candidate who's the incumbent, somewhat ahead 284 00:14:02,920 --> 00:14:05,280 Speaker 1: by six or seven points, but likely to be in 285 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:09,360 Speaker 1: a runoff. Instead, he destroyed the left wing candidate easily 286 00:14:09,440 --> 00:14:12,120 Speaker 1: won without a runoff, and one by thirty two points. 287 00:14:12,160 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 1: And you go down the list and over and over. 288 00:14:14,200 --> 00:14:18,640 Speaker 1: You're talking about extremely radical errors, all again in favor 289 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:23,960 Speaker 1: of undercounting the support that Bolsonario has here in Brazil, 290 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 1: just like we had two straight elections where there was 291 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:31,240 Speaker 1: clear undercounting and undersupport underpolling up of the support for 292 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:34,280 Speaker 1: Trump and his voters as well. So something has gone 293 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:37,960 Speaker 1: radically wrong in terms of polling analysis and these democracies. 294 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 1: Do you have any theory or are there any working 295 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 1: theories this morning about what that something is? It's going 296 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 1: to take you? I think a lot of work. I mean, 297 00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:50,840 Speaker 1: these firms have no credibility at this point. I mean, 298 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 1: one theory is is that because there's so much score 299 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 1: and against Bolsonario and his movement in elite circles, there's 300 00:14:58,160 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 1: kind of an embarrassment factor that brought Perhaps voters are 301 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:04,560 Speaker 1: unwilling to express their support for mulscenario upolsters, but then 302 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:06,720 Speaker 1: go into the voting booth and vote for him and 303 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:11,680 Speaker 1: his movement. Anyway, there could be changes technologically in terms 304 00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:15,120 Speaker 1: of how young people only use the Internet and cell phones, 305 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:19,200 Speaker 1: all those sorts of things. But when you're talking about errors, 306 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 1: this dramatic. Now not just once, but in twenty eighteen, 307 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 1: very similar errors took place again in favor of the 308 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:30,360 Speaker 1: Latin against the polscenario movement. Something has gone fundamentally wrong 309 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 1: in polling science and it needs to be addressed immediately, 310 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:36,400 Speaker 1: if any they want to preserve any credibility for themselves. Yeah, 311 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:38,440 Speaker 1: and Glenn I was actually rereading an essay that he 312 00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 1: wrote in twenty eighteen about Bolsonnaro's original victory about polling errors. 313 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 1: At the time, the issues what exactly it? You know, 314 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 1: Trump's almost reelection in twenty twenty really was pressage in 315 00:15:50,560 --> 00:15:53,280 Speaker 1: what happened in Brazil as well. So in that context, 316 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 1: I mean, what lessons do we have? Yeah, like you said, 317 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:59,400 Speaker 1: for all democracies about this level of this type of 318 00:15:59,480 --> 00:16:04,840 Speaker 1: populace and its appeal at the actual democratic level. Yeah. 319 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, first of all, one of the 320 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 1: things that has happened in Brazil is is something we've 321 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:12,800 Speaker 1: seen in many other countries, which is the disappearance of 322 00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:16,680 Speaker 1: the center right. For twenty years, Brazil was dominated by 323 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:19,280 Speaker 1: an election between pt on the one hand, the center 324 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:23,440 Speaker 1: right party PSDB on the other. PSDB barely exists anymore, 325 00:16:23,560 --> 00:16:27,120 Speaker 1: conservatives and the right is just Bolsonardismo or kind of 326 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:30,040 Speaker 1: right wing populism. We've seen that over and over, including 327 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,280 Speaker 1: in the US increasingly. But I think the real lesson 328 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 1: saga is that, you know, everywhere we see neoliberalism thrive 329 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:44,640 Speaker 1: and then ree kavoc on countries, right wing populism emerges. 330 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:47,080 Speaker 1: How many times have we seen that. That's obviously the 331 00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 1: lesson of the Trump victory in twenty sixteen, But even 332 00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:52,760 Speaker 1: in Brazil for all, to talk about Lula and with 333 00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 1: Workers Party being this left wing party, whether it's because 334 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,280 Speaker 1: they're not really that or because the constraints of the 335 00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 1: Brazilian city them don't let them be, it doesn't really matter. 336 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,600 Speaker 1: The way they governed was really more neoliberal than traditionally. 337 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:09,640 Speaker 1: Let this just like the Democratic Party in the US, 338 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 1: and in that wreckage arises right wing populism due to 339 00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:18,919 Speaker 1: growing anger, hateful anger towards the neoliberal establishment. So now 340 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:22,680 Speaker 1: my understanding, and I'm certainly not an expert in Brazilian politics, 341 00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:26,160 Speaker 1: but my understanding is there was quite significant advances under 342 00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:30,199 Speaker 1: Lula in terms of lifting people out of poverty. There 343 00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 1: were a lot of schools that were built, there were 344 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:34,680 Speaker 1: a lot of social programs that were genuinely beneficial, even 345 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:36,680 Speaker 1: as you continued to have you know, the rich doing 346 00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:41,359 Speaker 1: quite well and large levels of inequality. So, you know, 347 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:45,160 Speaker 1: even as obviously Bolsonaro overperformed the polls, he still came 348 00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:47,919 Speaker 1: in second here. So what was the message from Lula 349 00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:50,840 Speaker 1: that was appealing in this round? And then what do 350 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:54,200 Speaker 1: you expect is going to happen in the next round 351 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:56,440 Speaker 1: based on you know, the other candidates that pulled votes 352 00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:59,040 Speaker 1: and who their voters are likely to go to. Yeah, 353 00:17:59,119 --> 00:18:01,680 Speaker 1: I mean, so you're at right, But let's remember that 354 00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:04,840 Speaker 1: Lula hasn't been president of Brazil for twelve years. He 355 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:07,959 Speaker 1: was president from two thousand and two until twenty ten, 356 00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:10,960 Speaker 1: when he was turning womitted out of office. You're absolutely 357 00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:14,680 Speaker 1: right that not only were there very impressive social programs 358 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 1: that even kind of neoliberal centers praised because they weren't 359 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:20,840 Speaker 1: just handouts. They were you know, payments to poor people, 360 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 1: but in exchange for proof that their kids are going 361 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 1: to school and getting vaccinated and performing other social obligations, 362 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:29,119 Speaker 1: the kind of things neoliberals like it did help a 363 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:33,120 Speaker 1: lot of people. Also, during Lula's two terms, Brazil had 364 00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:36,639 Speaker 1: massive economic growth. It became the sixth largest economy in 365 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,800 Speaker 1: the world, ahead of the UK. But you know, it's 366 00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 1: a long time ago. Once lou was out of office 367 00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 1: and he was succeeded by dil Marussef, the economy collapse, 368 00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 1: there were huge corruption scandals, a lot of anti pt 369 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:53,640 Speaker 1: sentiment arose. But the reality is Lula won. And let's 370 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:55,680 Speaker 1: remember he did win last night in the sense that 371 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:59,520 Speaker 1: he'd got the most votes, primarily because he's just such 372 00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:03,760 Speaker 1: a jag gigantic force of personality. There's so much personal 373 00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:08,639 Speaker 1: affection for Wule in Brazil that does not necessarily translate 374 00:19:09,160 --> 00:19:12,119 Speaker 1: to other left wing parties, and you can't, really, you know, 375 00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:15,159 Speaker 1: you have to sometimes in politics realize that a lot 376 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 1: of it is about force of personality. So that's a 377 00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,639 Speaker 1: huge factor. I would still rate Little as the favorite 378 00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 1: to win in this runoff, though, I don't think it's 379 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 1: going to be easy, as a lot of other people think. 380 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:31,159 Speaker 1: But in some sense, Crystal, you're right. But twenty ten 381 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:32,920 Speaker 1: when he left was a long time ago. In the 382 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:35,320 Speaker 1: next decade was filled with a lot of misery and 383 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:37,720 Speaker 1: a lot of suffering. So the other thing that was 384 00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:41,240 Speaker 1: a concern, Glenn, is that Bolsonaro, who made noises in 385 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:44,120 Speaker 1: this direction that basically, you know, if he didn't win, 386 00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:46,600 Speaker 1: then the thing was rigged, and you had a resolution 387 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:48,239 Speaker 1: that was passed by the Senate here. The US has 388 00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:52,800 Speaker 1: been very concerned about Bolsonaro basically claiming an illegitimate victory here, 389 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:54,920 Speaker 1: and of course the context for that as well, we 390 00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:57,080 Speaker 1: had a sort of like you know, failed and pathetic 391 00:19:57,119 --> 00:19:59,919 Speaker 1: coup attempt here in the US with Trump and his support. 392 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 1: There was a legit one in Brazil, you know, that 393 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:06,240 Speaker 1: did oust the democratically elected president when you, of course 394 00:20:06,280 --> 00:20:11,320 Speaker 1: were integral and ultimately exposing. So were there noises from 395 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 1: anyone last night saying this, you know, result was was 396 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:16,880 Speaker 1: not fair. Are you concerned about that in the next 397 00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:21,240 Speaker 1: round as well? I'm not. I have I you know, 398 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 1: first of all, I have of course, I think the 399 00:20:24,040 --> 00:20:27,359 Speaker 1: impact of January sixth, calling it in insurrection or whatever 400 00:20:27,520 --> 00:20:30,719 Speaker 1: is overstated. I regard it more as a riot than well, 401 00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:33,680 Speaker 1: I'm actually not I'm not really referring to January six 402 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:35,840 Speaker 1: as much as I am like the fake elector schemes 403 00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:37,920 Speaker 1: and the efforts in the courts to try to overturn 404 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,120 Speaker 1: the election. But we can leave that debate for another day. 405 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,920 Speaker 1: There were clearly efforts on Trump's side to try to, 406 00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:45,560 Speaker 1: you know, keep himself in office, and he continues to say, 407 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,440 Speaker 1: I'm rightfully elected and they should just redo the election, 408 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:51,119 Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera. Sure, sure, sure, sure, I was 409 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,120 Speaker 1: just I was just trying to say that I never 410 00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:57,119 Speaker 1: saw the kind of post election instability or violence in 411 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:00,520 Speaker 1: the US as a major threat, and I don't see 412 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:03,560 Speaker 1: it as a threat in Brazil, and to the extent 413 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:07,200 Speaker 1: that I did, because I mean, just like with Trump, 414 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,359 Speaker 1: what I would describe Bolsonaro as being more than anything 415 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,600 Speaker 1: else during his first four years in office was a 416 00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 1: week president. I think the world in which Bolsonaro gets 417 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 1: everything that he wants is a very dark and alarming world. 418 00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:23,640 Speaker 1: The reality is Brazilian institutions. And there was an article 419 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,359 Speaker 1: in the New York Times just a week ago that 420 00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:29,080 Speaker 1: examined whether or not the Brazilian Supreme Court has become 421 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 1: authoritarian in its efforts to kind of limit and stop 422 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 1: the Bolsonaro movement. He's really been checked and limited in 423 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:37,239 Speaker 1: lots of ways. I don't think he'd have a lot 424 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,880 Speaker 1: of institutional support in the military, for example, for doing 425 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:42,800 Speaker 1: this sort of thing that would be necessary to threat 426 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,760 Speaker 1: in the election. But the real point, Crystal is, even 427 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:48,479 Speaker 1: though Bolsonaro came in second last night, the big winner 428 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 1: last night's election was Bolsonarismo. I mean, his party is 429 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,720 Speaker 1: now going to be the largest party in both the 430 00:21:56,840 --> 00:22:00,840 Speaker 1: Senate and the House. His ally one the governorship of 431 00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:02,920 Speaker 1: Rio Jijenio, and is now the favorite to win the 432 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:06,119 Speaker 1: governorship of Sempaulo, the two largest and most important states 433 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:10,040 Speaker 1: in Brazil. So even if Lula ultimately wins in this runoff, 434 00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:14,280 Speaker 1: Bolsonarismo in Brazil is not going anywhere. It remains very strong, 435 00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:18,119 Speaker 1: and I think that has definitely lessened the likelihood that 436 00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:19,960 Speaker 1: w B are going to go out into the streets 437 00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 1: and and create a lot of violence and instability. And 438 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 1: the event that Bolsonaro loses to Lula makes a lot 439 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,000 Speaker 1: of sense. Glenn thank you so much for joining us 440 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,199 Speaker 1: and for breaking it down. It's just so so helpful 441 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:30,760 Speaker 1: and a lot of parallels that we can draw for 442 00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 1: our own country. So thanks very much, appreciate it. Glad yah. 443 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 1: Great to be with the guys. Value you're covering those things. Absolutely. 444 00:22:38,600 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 1: Let's talk a little bit more about the economy because 445 00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:44,040 Speaker 1: the spells more sort of democratic woes in terms of 446 00:22:44,080 --> 00:22:46,640 Speaker 1: some of the shifts that are happening right now. First 447 00:22:46,680 --> 00:22:48,439 Speaker 1: of all, we have been taking a close look at 448 00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:51,880 Speaker 1: the housing market. Soger did a fantastic monologue on that yesterday, 449 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:54,720 Speaker 1: and there's new news there which again was kind of 450 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:57,440 Speaker 1: a predictable outcome of the federal reserve policy. Let's go 451 00:22:57,440 --> 00:22:59,119 Speaker 1: ahead and put this up on the screen from the 452 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:01,359 Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal. They say home builders are offering to 453 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:05,800 Speaker 1: sell homes in bulk at discount to investors as mortgage 454 00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:10,120 Speaker 1: rates hit a fifteen year high and individual buyers back away. 455 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:15,119 Speaker 1: Builders look to unload both planned and completed homes. So 456 00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:18,959 Speaker 1: we really at this point have a worst of all 457 00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:22,639 Speaker 1: worlds in terms of regular people and the housing market. 458 00:23:23,080 --> 00:23:28,640 Speaker 1: So prices like sticker prices have come down somewhat on houses, 459 00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:32,399 Speaker 1: but that has been coupled with such a massive spike 460 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:37,119 Speaker 1: in mortgage rates that these homes are wildly less affordable 461 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:39,280 Speaker 1: than they used to be. And I do encourage you 462 00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,800 Speaker 1: to go through listen to Zagre's monologue yesterday, because he 463 00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,000 Speaker 1: goes through some of the numbers. It's hard to wrap 464 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,359 Speaker 1: your head around just how much of a difference it 465 00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:48,919 Speaker 1: makes in terms of your monthly mortgage costs. The difference 466 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,520 Speaker 1: between you know, a three percent mortgage rate and a 467 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:54,880 Speaker 1: seven percent mortgage rate like doubles the amount that you're 468 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,160 Speaker 1: paying month to month. So this has put these houses 469 00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:02,920 Speaker 1: wildly out of reach of most American regular consumers. So 470 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:05,040 Speaker 1: at the same time, you have these homebuilders who were 471 00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,720 Speaker 1: starting to like ramp up before the FED started at 472 00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,120 Speaker 1: hike interst rates starting to ramp up or building, which 473 00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,560 Speaker 1: is something we really desperately need because we are short 474 00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:16,240 Speaker 1: in terms of housing stock, and now their cost to 475 00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:19,280 Speaker 1: finance these projects are going up. They don't have the 476 00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,600 Speaker 1: individual buyers because they can't afford the mortgage interest rates 477 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,320 Speaker 1: as they are now, so they're pulling back from these 478 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,680 Speaker 1: projects and then the inventory that they already have since 479 00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:31,560 Speaker 1: they can't get individual buyers because the mortgage rates they're 480 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:35,960 Speaker 1: offloading them at a discount, oftentimes to these companies that 481 00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:37,960 Speaker 1: want to buy up a bunch of single family homes 482 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 1: and then rent them to you at a profit, so 483 00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 1: they want to be like America's landlord. This is again 484 00:24:44,480 --> 00:24:46,680 Speaker 1: something we have sort of been predicting from the beginning. 485 00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:49,320 Speaker 1: The only people this market is good for is those 486 00:24:49,359 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 1: who have massive amounts of cash or ability to get 487 00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:56,159 Speaker 1: you know, financing at decent rates, who can snatch up 488 00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,000 Speaker 1: all of these houses, and they're saying they're selling them 489 00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:02,080 Speaker 1: for you know, fifty teen and twenty percent discounts, so 490 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,320 Speaker 1: they're getting a great deal to be able to profit 491 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,160 Speaker 1: in the future. So if you're a renter, you're getting 492 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:09,560 Speaker 1: screwed because rents are going up. If you're a homeowner, 493 00:25:09,560 --> 00:25:11,960 Speaker 1: you're getting screwed because prices are going down, and with 494 00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:14,359 Speaker 1: mortgage rates so high, if you want to move, you 495 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:16,600 Speaker 1: can't because you're terrified of what that mortgage interest rate 496 00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:18,520 Speaker 1: is going to be. If you're a prospective buyer, you 497 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 1: can forget about it because of the mortgage interest rates. Really, 498 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:25,359 Speaker 1: the only ones that benefit from this are permanent capital. 499 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,359 Speaker 1: Yet again, other piece that I wanted to point to 500 00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,840 Speaker 1: here just to underscore the part about how home prices 501 00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:36,159 Speaker 1: are falling, just not the affordability of homes. Let's put 502 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,159 Speaker 1: this next piece from Blueberg up on the screen. This 503 00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 1: is kind of a scary headline. US home price is 504 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,480 Speaker 1: now posting biggest monthly drops since two thousand and nine. 505 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,000 Speaker 1: What was going on in two thousand and nine. Cities 506 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:52,080 Speaker 1: facing steepest corrections include San Francisco. Inventory levels stayed relatively flat, 507 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:57,040 Speaker 1: according to one data provider. So you are seeing home 508 00:25:57,119 --> 00:25:59,360 Speaker 1: prices pulled back, which, of course, you know, if you're 509 00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:01,439 Speaker 1: a homeowner and you see your value of your home 510 00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:03,560 Speaker 1: go down, it means your overall wealth is going down. 511 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,320 Speaker 1: They're stuck in their homes if they want to move 512 00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:07,840 Speaker 1: because of these mortgage rates being so high, and people 513 00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:10,200 Speaker 1: can't buy in now because it is so unaffordable. It 514 00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:12,639 Speaker 1: really is a worst of all world situation. And to 515 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,200 Speaker 1: underscore what I said yesterday, yeah you can cheer, but 516 00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,800 Speaker 1: the home price index only fill by point nine to 517 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 1: eight percent. Yeah, so if the home price so home 518 00:26:20,600 --> 00:26:23,000 Speaker 1: price goes down one percent and mortgage rate goes up 519 00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,560 Speaker 1: one hundred percent, who's coming out on top? Are you 520 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,200 Speaker 1: going to be able to afford a house? This is 521 00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,920 Speaker 1: why all this cheering, Like I just fundamentally do not believe. 522 00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:34,280 Speaker 1: Just also from an like literal equity perspective, I don't 523 00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:37,240 Speaker 1: mean in like the diverse sense that the US government 524 00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 1: will ever let houses drop housing prices drop by more 525 00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:42,000 Speaker 1: than like twenty percent homes, then you would just home 526 00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:44,560 Speaker 1: owners are too powerful. Exactly, They're the most powerful people 527 00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:46,680 Speaker 1: in the world. Like they have more all the money, 528 00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:48,840 Speaker 1: you know, t one third or something. I think up 529 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,000 Speaker 1: the cash. Some sixty eight percent of Americans have at 530 00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:55,640 Speaker 1: least some home equity, disproportionately higher amongst elder folks. I'm 531 00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,480 Speaker 1: certain that if those people are at that affected, that 532 00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:02,160 Speaker 1: something happened. So my point is is that you can't 533 00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:05,320 Speaker 1: for you to wish that the price keeps going down 534 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:09,440 Speaker 1: to be equal to the increase in your average monthly mortgage, 535 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 1: you would have to wish for essentially a fifty percent 536 00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,680 Speaker 1: or almost one hundred percent reduction. That's just not going 537 00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:16,840 Speaker 1: to happen. So my point is, just like, Okay, let's 538 00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:19,280 Speaker 1: say they slide ten again, You're still out of a 539 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:21,320 Speaker 1: hell of a lot of money if you're still trying 540 00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,600 Speaker 1: to afford something. And the other problem is this will 541 00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:29,160 Speaker 1: be the situation for years to come. Already, the FED 542 00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 1: is like, we are not even considering lowering rate til 543 00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:35,360 Speaker 1: twenty twenty four. We're not even considerate for another year 544 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,320 Speaker 1: and a half or so. And then let's say they 545 00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:39,639 Speaker 1: do lower it by a point, you know, one hundred 546 00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:41,960 Speaker 1: basis points. So I'm like that, you're still way higher 547 00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:44,800 Speaker 1: than you were previously. Now. I think there's a lot 548 00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:47,040 Speaker 1: of critiques of a zero interest rate environment. I think, 549 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:50,879 Speaker 1: you know, bubbles and so many assets, et cetera. But 550 00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,920 Speaker 1: the point is not to punish the people who won't 551 00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:58,840 Speaker 1: be as affected and who didn't accumulate tens of billions 552 00:27:58,880 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 1: of dollars a wealth during that interim period. They were 553 00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:04,400 Speaker 1: just kind of skating by, you know, writing a little 554 00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:06,720 Speaker 1: bit of the benefit, but they weren't reaping nearly as 555 00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:08,760 Speaker 1: much of the benefit as everybody else. You have to 556 00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:11,399 Speaker 1: have some sort of rebalancing. Yeah, that happens. I mean, 557 00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:14,399 Speaker 1: this situation with housing being so unaffordable, I mean that 558 00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,040 Speaker 1: it really is kind of a powder keg, because this 559 00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:20,000 Speaker 1: is a crucial part of this is the way you 560 00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 1: build stable middle class wealth for yourself and for your 561 00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:26,280 Speaker 1: kids for the future. It'd be great if there were 562 00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:29,119 Speaker 1: other pathways, but this is basically the pathway, and you 563 00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:32,240 Speaker 1: are for effectively, you know, now two generations Mollennials and 564 00:28:32,359 --> 00:28:36,440 Speaker 1: gen Z shutting that off. That's that is a powder 565 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:38,760 Speaker 1: keg kind of an environment. It's not only a problem here, 566 00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:40,440 Speaker 1: it's a problem overseas as well in a lot of 567 00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:42,840 Speaker 1: other places. It's part of what's going on in the 568 00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:46,360 Speaker 1: UK right now as well. But you know, I don't 569 00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:49,520 Speaker 1: think I really had looked closely at the numbers before 570 00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:54,160 Speaker 1: of just how quickly things become unaffordable with mortgage prices 571 00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,280 Speaker 1: going up, right, and so I really, you know, I 572 00:28:57,320 --> 00:28:59,760 Speaker 1: always looked at housing prices in terms of like, oh, 573 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:01,960 Speaker 1: is the actual cause three hundred thousand and four one 574 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,800 Speaker 1: thousand whatever, But it really has so much more to 575 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 1: do with what that mortgage interest rate is that you 576 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,960 Speaker 1: were able to lock in, and what your monthly payment 577 00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:13,120 Speaker 1: then is going to be, whether you can afford it 578 00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:16,160 Speaker 1: or not. So that has been a lesson for me 579 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,680 Speaker 1: throughout all of this that the price really has very 580 00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:22,040 Speaker 1: little to do ultimately with how affordable the housing stock is. 581 00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:23,719 Speaker 1: And there are a lot of metrics that say, basically 582 00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,440 Speaker 1: housing has never been less affordable for your average American 583 00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:30,880 Speaker 1: than it is now. That is an absolute disaster, and 584 00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,760 Speaker 1: I think it's really important to underscore this was the intent, 585 00:29:35,080 --> 00:29:38,520 Speaker 1: Like this was the Fed's intent was to cause exactly 586 00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:42,680 Speaker 1: this situation and to try to effectively crash the housing market. 587 00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,920 Speaker 1: But again, if part of your issue here is a 588 00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,440 Speaker 1: supply issue, by increasing the rates, and that's what this 589 00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:53,000 Speaker 1: Law Street Journal piece really points out, you're also causing 590 00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:57,160 Speaker 1: additional supply issue, so exactly the problem that spiked inflation 591 00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:01,680 Speaker 1: to start with, you're actually exacerbating increasing these rates as well. 592 00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:05,640 Speaker 1: So it's an ugly situation. So it all started with 593 00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:07,840 Speaker 1: this report from the Daily Beast. Let's go ahead and 594 00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:09,960 Speaker 1: put this up on the screen. So herschel Walker, who 595 00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,680 Speaker 1: is very pro life and says he doesn't believe in exceptions, 596 00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:15,920 Speaker 1: and you know, unlike some Republicans who sort of walk 597 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:18,600 Speaker 1: back from the abortion abortion positions in the general election, 598 00:30:18,720 --> 00:30:23,120 Speaker 1: he has been all in Daily Beasts reporting pro life, 599 00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:28,320 Speaker 1: herschel Walker paid for his girlfriend's abortion. But wait, there's more. 600 00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:33,560 Speaker 1: They have quite a bit of evidence to support this allegation. 601 00:30:33,840 --> 00:30:35,960 Speaker 1: Let's go and put this next piece up on the screen. 602 00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:39,240 Speaker 1: The woman who they did not name, you know, to 603 00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:43,040 Speaker 1: protect her privacy said. They say she supported these claims 604 00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,360 Speaker 1: with a five hundred and seventy five dollars receipt from 605 00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:50,880 Speaker 1: an abortion clinic, plus a get well card from Walker 606 00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:53,040 Speaker 1: that they actually have pictured in the piece with his like, 607 00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 1: you know, very clearly his signature signed on the card, 608 00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 1: and a bank deposit receipt that included an image of 609 00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:06,560 Speaker 1: a signed seven hundred dollars personal check that came from Walker. 610 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:09,640 Speaker 1: So you've got the receipt from the abortion clinic, the 611 00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:12,800 Speaker 1: get well card that came right after the abortion, and 612 00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,920 Speaker 1: the bank deposit receipt that is for the rough amount 613 00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:20,800 Speaker 1: that the abortion cost from directly from Herschel Walker. So 614 00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:24,360 Speaker 1: pretty hard I would say to deny that one. It 615 00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:27,720 Speaker 1: seems like the facts are fairly clear here. Also important 616 00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:30,920 Speaker 1: to keep in mind Herschel Walker has been caught in 617 00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:33,920 Speaker 1: like so many lives at this point, I cannot keep 618 00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:35,800 Speaker 1: track of all of them. There were obviously the ones 619 00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 1: about his kids that he denied even to his own 620 00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,600 Speaker 1: campaign staff or his until he got caught red handed. 621 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:42,600 Speaker 1: Now he's trying to say, oh, I just wanted to 622 00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,520 Speaker 1: protect them, That's why I wasn't talking about him. That 623 00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:46,720 Speaker 1: was not the story at the time. In fact, his 624 00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:50,040 Speaker 1: own campaign staff was leaking to The Daily Beast about 625 00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,000 Speaker 1: how they didn't know whether he was lying, that he 626 00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,240 Speaker 1: was a pathological liar, that they couldn't trust anything that 627 00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:56,360 Speaker 1: he said. That They sat down with him after the 628 00:31:56,400 --> 00:32:00,280 Speaker 1: first revelation were like herschel, dude, are there any more? 629 00:32:00,480 --> 00:32:02,880 Speaker 1: And He's like, absolutely not. And then that very day 630 00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,520 Speaker 1: they get new evidence that in fact, there are more kids. 631 00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:07,640 Speaker 1: He's lied about his bio. I mean, you could go 632 00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:10,600 Speaker 1: on and on. There's clearly a difficult relationship with the truth. 633 00:32:10,720 --> 00:32:14,440 Speaker 1: So anyway, that is the context for his flat out 634 00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:16,240 Speaker 1: denial is go and put this up on the screen. 635 00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,600 Speaker 1: Walker says, this is a flat ount lie. I deny 636 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,640 Speaker 1: this in the strongest possible terms. It's a repugnant hatchet 637 00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:26,360 Speaker 1: job from a Democrat activist disguise as a reporter. Subsessively 638 00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:28,920 Speaker 1: attacked my family. He's harass friends of mine, asking my 639 00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:32,360 Speaker 1: father their children. He has called my children's secret because 640 00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:34,120 Speaker 1: I didn't want to use them as campaign props and 641 00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:36,640 Speaker 1: political campaign That's what I was talking about before. Now 642 00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,360 Speaker 1: they're using an anonymous source to further slander me. They'll 643 00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:42,640 Speaker 1: do anything to hold onto power. It's disgusting, gut or politics. 644 00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,080 Speaker 1: I won't take it anymore. I'm planning to sue The 645 00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:47,800 Speaker 1: Daily Beast for this defamatory lie. It will be filed 646 00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:50,960 Speaker 1: tomorrow morning. Just a little bit more on his response, 647 00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:53,160 Speaker 1: because I thought this was interesting. He kind of tried 648 00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,680 Speaker 1: to imply that the reason they're going after him is 649 00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:57,680 Speaker 1: because he's black. Let's go ahead and put this piece 650 00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:01,400 Speaker 1: up on the screen. This reporter says she was at 651 00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,120 Speaker 1: a herschel Walker event when the story broke, and his 652 00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:06,520 Speaker 1: immediate response was, that's a lie, the Daily Beast. They 653 00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:08,920 Speaker 1: said that about my kids. Also, they lied. No, they 654 00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:12,040 Speaker 1: didn't anyway, So I don't take anything that seriously. And 655 00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:14,680 Speaker 1: I think that right now, I ask this question, would 656 00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:18,640 Speaker 1: they be doing that if I was white? Okay, so 657 00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:24,200 Speaker 1: already a lot of drama here. However, this takes the cake. Yes, 658 00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:29,000 Speaker 1: the story goes so much further than this. So herschel Walker, 659 00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,680 Speaker 1: you guys may be aware of, he has actually quite 660 00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:36,400 Speaker 1: prominent son, Christian Walker, who has been Herschel's probably most 661 00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:41,800 Speaker 1: prominent campaign surrogate, who himself is like outspoken right wing conservative, 662 00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:45,320 Speaker 1: you know, really like podcast called Uncancellable. Let's just put 663 00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:47,880 Speaker 1: it exactly, and you know loves to own the libs 664 00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,760 Speaker 1: and like he's down for the cause. Right, So Christian 665 00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,800 Speaker 1: has been really outspoken in favor of his father's campaign. 666 00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:59,080 Speaker 1: Something about this story and the denial triggered a total 667 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:02,280 Speaker 1: one from Christian Walker with regards to his father. So 668 00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:06,720 Speaker 1: let's put this up on the screen, he says. Every 669 00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:09,879 Speaker 1: family member of herschel Walker asked him not to run 670 00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:13,280 Speaker 1: for office because we all knew some of his fast 671 00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:16,120 Speaker 1: every single one. He decided to give us the middle 672 00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:19,000 Speaker 1: finger and air out all of his dirty laundry in 673 00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:23,600 Speaker 1: public while simultaneously lying about it. I'm done, Christian continued, 674 00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:25,960 Speaker 1: Let's go and put this next piece up on the screen. 675 00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:29,239 Speaker 1: I know my mom and I would really appreciate if 676 00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:33,440 Speaker 1: my father, herschel Walker, stop lying and making a mockery 677 00:34:33,480 --> 00:34:36,200 Speaker 1: of us. You are not a family man. When you 678 00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,640 Speaker 1: left us to bang a bunch of women, threatened to 679 00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:42,920 Speaker 1: kill us, and had us move over six times in 680 00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:45,759 Speaker 1: six months running from your violence. I don't care about 681 00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:48,120 Speaker 1: someone who has had a bad pass and takes accountability, 682 00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:50,640 Speaker 1: But how dare you lie and act as though you're 683 00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:54,320 Speaker 1: some moral, Christian, upright man. You've lived a life of 684 00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:59,799 Speaker 1: destroying other people's lives. How dare you so? His son, 685 00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:04,120 Speaker 1: who has been very unspoken in favor of him, completely 686 00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:09,319 Speaker 1: turning on him in a scathing fashion. And that's where 687 00:35:09,360 --> 00:35:11,400 Speaker 1: things stand on. Yeah, and so while you and I 688 00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:14,080 Speaker 1: are on the air, he actually put out a new video. 689 00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,759 Speaker 1: I haven't you know obviously we're doing the show. But 690 00:35:16,840 --> 00:35:19,000 Speaker 1: he just says, I've stayed silent for nearly two years. 691 00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:22,279 Speaker 1: My whole life has been lied about publicly one campaign event, 692 00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:24,600 Speaker 1: then said I don't want any more involvement. Don't you 693 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:28,240 Speaker 1: dare test my authenticity? And he's giving out his full story. 694 00:35:28,320 --> 00:35:30,319 Speaker 1: He says, I've spoken to nearly all the people who 695 00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,000 Speaker 1: have attacked me and told them I didn't want to 696 00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,560 Speaker 1: be involved. Now they're blaming me for everything I'm not 697 00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:39,080 Speaker 1: responsible for. It's disgusting. So look, when your own son 698 00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:42,200 Speaker 1: is going scor start against you and causing you, calling 699 00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:45,719 Speaker 1: you an adulterer, and confirming that the story is effectively true, 700 00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:48,719 Speaker 1: I mean you're just seeing a massive, massive mess. I 701 00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:51,759 Speaker 1: think it very links neatly with the story we're about 702 00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:54,160 Speaker 1: to talk about next, which is in a way I 703 00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:56,320 Speaker 1: feel bad for herschel Walker. It seems clear to me 704 00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:59,759 Speaker 1: that he's just not all there, whatever's left. He's taken 705 00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:03,000 Speaker 1: very impulsive decisions in his life. He's ruined a lot 706 00:36:03,040 --> 00:36:05,319 Speaker 1: of his family, and he's a flawed candidate basically from 707 00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:08,200 Speaker 1: the beginning, which was obvious to just about anybody every 708 00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:11,800 Speaker 1: time it opens his mouth. So I typically, as you 709 00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,279 Speaker 1: guys know, I don't put a lot of stock into 710 00:36:14,640 --> 00:36:19,120 Speaker 1: candidate quality except in extreme circumstances, and this is an 711 00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:21,520 Speaker 1: extreme st I think it is extreme. You know, when 712 00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:25,720 Speaker 1: you have you know, there have been obviously repeated issues 713 00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,640 Speaker 1: with the lying about the kids and getting caught in, 714 00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:31,759 Speaker 1: then the lying about the bio, and just his inability 715 00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:35,320 Speaker 1: to really, you know, explain his positions in a straightforward manner. 716 00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:39,760 Speaker 1: But then when you have the story itself was damaging, 717 00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:43,360 Speaker 1: but I don't think total deal breaker in terms of 718 00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,319 Speaker 1: the center race. But then when you have your own son, 719 00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:49,120 Speaker 1: who has been so prominent, coming out in this manner 720 00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:55,640 Speaker 1: and just guns blazing saying you're an adulter, you're a liar, 721 00:36:56,040 --> 00:36:58,680 Speaker 1: you threatened us with violence, You've ruined all of our lives. 722 00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,040 Speaker 1: We all begged you not to run, And I mean 723 00:37:01,440 --> 00:37:05,320 Speaker 1: that's I think that's a very very difficult thing to 724 00:37:05,440 --> 00:37:08,279 Speaker 1: ultimately overcome. And you know, this is a race. George 725 00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:10,520 Speaker 1: is another state like Nevada where the polling has actually 726 00:37:10,560 --> 00:37:14,879 Speaker 1: been quite accurate. In fact, I think the polling going 727 00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:19,000 Speaker 1: into the last two Senate runoffs actually understated Democratic support 728 00:37:19,080 --> 00:37:20,960 Speaker 1: by a little bit, like maybe a point or two. 729 00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:24,319 Speaker 1: So when you look at this race and you see 730 00:37:24,360 --> 00:37:27,680 Speaker 1: polling that has it neck and neck, true toss up 731 00:37:28,239 --> 00:37:30,520 Speaker 1: Raphael Warnock maybe with a little bit of an edge, 732 00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:34,880 Speaker 1: and then you see these this, you know, this just 733 00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:38,920 Speaker 1: disaster for for herschel Walker and frankly for his family. 734 00:37:39,560 --> 00:37:41,800 Speaker 1: It's this is going to be I think a difficult 735 00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:44,840 Speaker 1: for Republicans to be able to pull off. You know, 736 00:37:44,960 --> 00:37:47,279 Speaker 1: I'm seeing them being a little more hopeful about Oz 737 00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:49,360 Speaker 1: and how Oz had his own story come out yesterday 738 00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:53,400 Speaker 1: about as well. We're gonna have to cover that one 739 00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:57,560 Speaker 1: because some of these allegations are actually horrifying, and I 740 00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:00,640 Speaker 1: do I mean, obviously it's no accident that these types 741 00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:03,520 Speaker 1: of stories come out in October, a couple weeks before 742 00:38:03,600 --> 00:38:05,480 Speaker 1: an election. This is exactly when you would time an 743 00:38:05,480 --> 00:38:08,279 Speaker 1: APO dump to try to you know, really land with 744 00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:10,680 Speaker 1: the electorate before people start voting and go to the polls. 745 00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:12,920 Speaker 1: But that doesn't mean that the allegations are false or 746 00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:16,279 Speaker 1: untrue or unworthy of reporting on ultimately, even if you 747 00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:18,480 Speaker 1: know they are sort of coming from one side of 748 00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:21,400 Speaker 1: the political spectrum. So in any case, I think this 749 00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:24,200 Speaker 1: makes it a lot more difficult for Republicans to pick 750 00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:26,760 Speaker 1: up the state of Georgia. When we were down in Atlanta, 751 00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:30,080 Speaker 1: actually predicted Republicans would win the seat. I am changing 752 00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:32,640 Speaker 1: that prediction. I now think this is going to be 753 00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:36,800 Speaker 1: a very difficult, difficult situation for them to overcome, just 754 00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:41,120 Speaker 1: because this is all so incredibly disturbing and damaging. And 755 00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:43,719 Speaker 1: so that doesn't mean that Republicans won't pick up the Senate, 756 00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:45,279 Speaker 1: but they're going to need to look to states like 757 00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:48,759 Speaker 1: Nevada and Pennsylvania. Even if they just pick up those two, 758 00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:51,239 Speaker 1: then they'll be able to get the one point the 759 00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:56,239 Speaker 1: one sea margin that they ultimately need. Here, let's talk 760 00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:58,160 Speaker 1: about her on because there is clearly a lot going 761 00:38:58,239 --> 00:38:59,480 Speaker 1: on there. We wanted to keep our eye on the 762 00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:01,400 Speaker 1: protests up, so we got doctor Tree t. Parsi on 763 00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:04,320 Speaker 1: to break down what was happening there and how widespread 764 00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,040 Speaker 1: they were. You know, this started all because of a 765 00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:09,520 Speaker 1: young woman who was accused of like not wearing her 766 00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:14,120 Speaker 1: job properly by the morality police, which like just paused 767 00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:15,919 Speaker 1: for a second and think of the insanity that such 768 00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:19,120 Speaker 1: a thing even exist. Died in their custody. You know, 769 00:39:19,200 --> 00:39:21,919 Speaker 1: the family really believes that she was basically beaten to death. 770 00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:24,560 Speaker 1: They deny it, but you take that for what it's worth. 771 00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:27,120 Speaker 1: So those protests continual leants go and put this up 772 00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:31,520 Speaker 1: on the screen. They truly are you know, nationwide, they're 773 00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:34,120 Speaker 1: concentrated in urban centers, no doubt about it. Protests, you know, 774 00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:37,040 Speaker 1: movements often are. But you have a top Iranian official 775 00:39:37,080 --> 00:39:39,920 Speaker 1: here warning that protests could destabilize the country. I think 776 00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:42,480 Speaker 1: that's basically being used as a justification for what has 777 00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:47,000 Speaker 1: been a brutal crackdown. You've had estimates vary, but I've 778 00:39:47,040 --> 00:39:50,839 Speaker 1: seen at least fifty deaths in these protests. Fifty people 779 00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:55,320 Speaker 1: killed in these protests. Aron's parliamentary speaker Warren Sunday the 780 00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:57,080 Speaker 1: protests over the death of a young woman of police 781 00:39:57,120 --> 00:40:00,239 Speaker 1: custody could destabilize the country and urge security for versus 782 00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:04,000 Speaker 1: to deal harshly with those he claimed in danger public order. 783 00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:08,279 Speaker 1: As countrywide unrest entered its third week, posts on social 784 00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:10,720 Speaker 1: media show they were scattered anti government protests in Tehran 785 00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:13,680 Speaker 1: and running clashes with security forces in other towns. Sunday, 786 00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:16,920 Speaker 1: Arounian State TV has reported at least forty one protesters 787 00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:20,280 Speaker 1: and police have been killed since the demonstrations began September seventeenth. 788 00:40:20,560 --> 00:40:23,359 Speaker 1: An AP count of official statements by authorities tallied at 789 00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:26,600 Speaker 1: least fourteen dead, with more than fifteen hundred demonstrators arrested. Again, 790 00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:29,120 Speaker 1: talies vary because other numbers I saw us at at 791 00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:32,800 Speaker 1: least fifty. So there's clearly been like significant loss of 792 00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:39,520 Speaker 1: life here among protesters mostly, but also among some police officers. Now, 793 00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:42,120 Speaker 1: there's a few things to say about this. One thing 794 00:40:42,160 --> 00:40:45,480 Speaker 1: that I think is remarkable, Sager, and noteworthy here is 795 00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:50,359 Speaker 1: that this started with the Iranian middle class, which has 796 00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:55,040 Speaker 1: been you know, sort of economically devastated over the past 797 00:40:55,160 --> 00:41:00,680 Speaker 1: number of years. But it has truly spread across class groups, 798 00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:05,000 Speaker 1: rural and urban centers, and also among ethnic groups. And 799 00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:07,880 Speaker 1: all of that is quite remarkable, obviously because of the 800 00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:10,919 Speaker 1: circumstances that sort of kick these protests off. They've also 801 00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:13,959 Speaker 1: really centered women and been led in large part by women, 802 00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:16,759 Speaker 1: and I think it's really noteworthy that they've continued as 803 00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:20,840 Speaker 1: long as they have, even in spite of this clearly 804 00:41:20,920 --> 00:41:23,719 Speaker 1: brutal crackdown. The other piece of context we wanted to 805 00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:26,239 Speaker 1: put up here that I thought was interesting breakdown from 806 00:41:26,600 --> 00:41:28,200 Speaker 1: let's go and put the Wall Street Journal piece up 807 00:41:28,200 --> 00:41:31,279 Speaker 1: on the screen. Here they say, Iran's crippled economy sustains 808 00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:34,680 Speaker 1: protests after religious police lit flame, the country's middle class 809 00:41:34,760 --> 00:41:37,120 Speaker 1: is shrinking for the first time in decades, and US 810 00:41:37,160 --> 00:41:43,080 Speaker 1: sanctions corruption and amid US sanctions, corruption and economic mismanagement. 811 00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:47,600 Speaker 1: You know, they interviewed some folks who are directly involved 812 00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:49,480 Speaker 1: in the protest. They talked to a fifty two year 813 00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:53,759 Speaker 1: old homemaker who's been protesting in Tehran, taking off her job, 814 00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:55,799 Speaker 1: waiving it with crowds of other women, and she says, 815 00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:58,880 Speaker 1: the roots of these protests is the economic problems, and 816 00:41:59,000 --> 00:42:01,759 Speaker 1: you now see the eruption. She and her husband, who 817 00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:04,400 Speaker 1: are small food business owner of run out of savings 818 00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:07,480 Speaker 1: and inflation threatens their middle class lifestyle. They wont own 819 00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:10,880 Speaker 1: several properties, but they've had to sell them to raise cash. 820 00:42:11,320 --> 00:42:13,160 Speaker 1: She says she used to buy a new car every 821 00:42:13,200 --> 00:42:15,080 Speaker 1: two years, trading the old model for a new one. 822 00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:17,720 Speaker 1: She recently had to sell her only car for cash 823 00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:21,440 Speaker 1: to pay off loans. Some of the numbers underscoring this, 824 00:42:21,600 --> 00:42:25,600 Speaker 1: the middle class is under pressure from fifty percent inflation. 825 00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:29,839 Speaker 1: Think about that, fifty percent inflation, a currency that failed 826 00:42:29,840 --> 00:42:32,360 Speaker 1: to its lowest levels ever this year. That means anything 827 00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:34,920 Speaker 1: you import is going to be way, way, way more expensive. 828 00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:38,239 Speaker 1: That continues to feed that fifty percent inflation. Today, more 829 00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:40,360 Speaker 1: than a third of around lives in poverty compared with 830 00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:42,640 Speaker 1: twenty percent just in twenty fifteen, and the middle class 831 00:42:42,640 --> 00:42:45,239 Speaker 1: has shrunk to comprise less than half the country, and 832 00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:48,120 Speaker 1: that is a stunning reversal. As well. The Iranian middle 833 00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:50,160 Speaker 1: class has been sort of like famously robust for a 834 00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:51,920 Speaker 1: long time. Of course, I mean I think that that's 835 00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:54,640 Speaker 1: actually very noteworthy, which is that at the same time 836 00:42:54,840 --> 00:42:57,840 Speaker 1: that you are getting crippled economically, it's like you have 837 00:42:58,000 --> 00:43:00,880 Speaker 1: somebody getting beaten, you know, possibly to death by the 838 00:43:00,960 --> 00:43:03,799 Speaker 1: so called morality, and you're just like, okay, log, what's 839 00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:05,520 Speaker 1: the whole point? You know, with a lot of these 840 00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:07,960 Speaker 1: types of regimes, that guarantee is always, yeah, you might 841 00:43:08,000 --> 00:43:09,640 Speaker 1: have to live with some of our crazy stuff that 842 00:43:09,760 --> 00:43:13,440 Speaker 1: the you know, the more religious people support, but you'll 843 00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,640 Speaker 1: be allowed to make money, and you'll be probably you're 844 00:43:15,840 --> 00:43:18,200 Speaker 1: we're gonna have good schools, you're gonna have good health care, 845 00:43:18,280 --> 00:43:20,400 Speaker 1: you're gonna be able to come with doctor or a lawyer, 846 00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:22,480 Speaker 1: and you're gonna have a stability for your family. There's 847 00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:24,279 Speaker 1: a complicated People are like, well, you know, I'm not 848 00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:27,080 Speaker 1: a lover of the regime, but I'm doing fine. It's like, well, 849 00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:30,520 Speaker 1: if you're not doing fine and you're getting oppressed, You're like, well, 850 00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:32,359 Speaker 1: why should I have to put up with this at all? 851 00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:34,480 Speaker 1: And you have two things that happen here too. I mean, 852 00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:38,160 Speaker 1: you have this total economic collapse, which is partly global economy, 853 00:43:38,320 --> 00:43:41,680 Speaker 1: partly US sanctions and partly because of you know, decisions 854 00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:45,680 Speaker 1: of the Iranian government themselves. Then you have a new 855 00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:50,520 Speaker 1: hardline president. So you know, whereas previously, you know, women 856 00:43:50,600 --> 00:43:52,320 Speaker 1: could kind of wear their hood job. This is my 857 00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:55,080 Speaker 1: understanding based on the reporting, however, they want now you're 858 00:43:55,360 --> 00:44:00,040 Speaker 1: to have this like harder line morality, police crackdown. And 859 00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:03,120 Speaker 1: so when you couple those things together, yeah, you're like, 860 00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:05,600 Speaker 1: what the hell what am I getting out of this deal? 861 00:44:05,680 --> 00:44:08,120 Speaker 1: This is this is a nightmare. It's an economic nightmare, 862 00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:10,920 Speaker 1: and it's like a sort of like social cultural nightmare 863 00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:14,600 Speaker 1: as well, and the level of like violence and brutality 864 00:44:14,719 --> 00:44:16,480 Speaker 1: and all of that. So you can see how that 865 00:44:16,520 --> 00:44:18,600 Speaker 1: would lead to it being a powder keg we have. 866 00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:21,200 Speaker 1: Let's go and put this show this little bit of 867 00:44:21,239 --> 00:44:24,840 Speaker 1: footage here. These are girls who this is actually speaker 868 00:44:25,200 --> 00:44:31,480 Speaker 1: from the IRGC there paramilitary and the tweet that accompanied 869 00:44:31,840 --> 00:44:34,319 Speaker 1: this video. Here all these girls who took off their 870 00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:36,200 Speaker 1: had job and they're waving at him and they're screaming 871 00:44:36,239 --> 00:44:38,799 Speaker 1: at him basically to go home, go away, they say, 872 00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:42,960 Speaker 1: get lost. So this is at at an all girls' school, 873 00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:46,000 Speaker 1: and it's just one example of the type of protests, 874 00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:49,280 Speaker 1: quite courageous in fact, that have been going on around 875 00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:51,000 Speaker 1: the country. And you know, I know this is a 876 00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:54,520 Speaker 1: little complicated because Iran is one of the like official 877 00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:57,799 Speaker 1: bad guy regimes of US government, and so there's also 878 00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:02,080 Speaker 1: always always speculation of like our you know, is the 879 00:45:02,160 --> 00:45:06,239 Speaker 1: CIA involved in like creating this discontent and all of 880 00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:08,440 Speaker 1: these things. But it seems pretty clear this was a 881 00:45:08,640 --> 00:45:12,120 Speaker 1: very organic movement that the fuse was lit by this 882 00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:15,240 Speaker 1: event of police violence that you know, there was already 883 00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:17,880 Speaker 1: all this like economic discontent and kindling there and the 884 00:45:17,960 --> 00:45:19,640 Speaker 1: last thing I want to say is I do see 885 00:45:19,680 --> 00:45:21,880 Speaker 1: some people who are like, I'll see, this justifies the sanctions, 886 00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:24,120 Speaker 1: this is what we wanted to get, And I think 887 00:45:24,200 --> 00:45:27,239 Speaker 1: that's absurd, Like it's immoral to punish a population and 888 00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:29,359 Speaker 1: try to strangle them with the hope of like maybe 889 00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:31,200 Speaker 1: they'll rise up and get rid of the regime. Yeah. 890 00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:32,600 Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think there's much else to say 891 00:45:32,640 --> 00:45:34,399 Speaker 1: except like I wish them the best, and I hope 892 00:45:34,400 --> 00:45:37,960 Speaker 1: it leads to some societal change in Iran. You know, look, 893 00:45:38,000 --> 00:45:39,600 Speaker 1: I mean they've got long odds. I think we got 894 00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:41,640 Speaker 1: to be really clear. Yeah, we should be honest, which 895 00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:43,640 Speaker 1: is that at the end of the day, the Iranian 896 00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:46,600 Speaker 1: regime has been willing to use deadly force to a 897 00:45:46,800 --> 00:45:49,920 Speaker 1: historic degree in order to have its preservation. Kind of 898 00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:53,719 Speaker 1: a long standing tradition with authoritarian governments. That being said, 899 00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:55,760 Speaker 1: you know, it works until it doesn't work. So maybe 900 00:45:56,200 --> 00:45:58,719 Speaker 1: this is the one case. I have my doubts. It's 901 00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:00,719 Speaker 1: been going on for a long time, but it is 902 00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:04,319 Speaker 1: important that we understand, like what exactly is being protested 903 00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:08,160 Speaker 1: over there. And I don't live in Iran, I don't 904 00:46:08,200 --> 00:46:10,439 Speaker 1: know how widespread it actually is. From what is leaking 905 00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:13,400 Speaker 1: out and what is being brought attention to. It seems 906 00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:16,600 Speaker 1: like some portion of the public of which we should 907 00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:20,160 Speaker 1: obviously support, you know, in any way that we possibly can. 908 00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:22,640 Speaker 1: So Yeah, like I said, I wish them the absolute best. 909 00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:26,880 Speaker 1: I've lived in Islamic theocracies before, and it is stifling. 910 00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:30,680 Speaker 1: It's horrific. I will never forget that. It made me 911 00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:34,840 Speaker 1: such an appreciator of just our society. Like watching women, 912 00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:38,440 Speaker 1: you know, completely clad in the nikab, walking ten steps 913 00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:41,799 Speaker 1: behind their husbands, and like hearing stories about the way 914 00:46:41,880 --> 00:46:44,040 Speaker 1: that they're treated at home, and they have no rights. 915 00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:45,960 Speaker 1: They can't leave the country, you know, just for context, 916 00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:48,560 Speaker 1: he's living Katar. I mean, even some of these princesses, 917 00:46:48,640 --> 00:46:51,720 Speaker 1: like they're wealthy, but they have no they have no authority. 918 00:46:51,760 --> 00:46:53,600 Speaker 1: They can't even get on a plane with that the 919 00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:56,839 Speaker 1: permission of their fathers or their husbands, like married off 920 00:46:56,920 --> 00:46:59,640 Speaker 1: against their will. It really is horrific. I can't even 921 00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:02,320 Speaker 1: believe it exists in the year twenty twenty two. So 922 00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:04,279 Speaker 1: to the extent that still exists in Iran, which it 923 00:47:04,320 --> 00:47:07,239 Speaker 1: certainly does with these so called morality police, I wish 924 00:47:07,320 --> 00:47:09,479 Speaker 1: them the best. I don't think any human being, especially women, 925 00:47:09,560 --> 00:47:11,440 Speaker 1: deserves to live. Like yeah, no, I mean, there's no 926 00:47:11,520 --> 00:47:13,799 Speaker 1: doubt about that. And the last piece that I will say, 927 00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:16,640 Speaker 1: which I mean maybe it's I don't know how you 928 00:47:16,719 --> 00:47:19,279 Speaker 1: feel about me saying it, but it's also bears keep 929 00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:21,880 Speaker 1: in mind that, like you know, we had the Arab Spring, 930 00:47:21,960 --> 00:47:23,840 Speaker 1: there was a lot of hope that you would have 931 00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:27,680 Speaker 1: these more like reformists, more sort of open liberal, tolerant 932 00:47:28,000 --> 00:47:33,239 Speaker 1: democratic regimes, and unfortunately it didn't work out. And you know, 933 00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:37,280 Speaker 1: you have a situation in Iran where in a previous 934 00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:41,280 Speaker 1: set of protests several years back, they basically, like forcibly 935 00:47:41,360 --> 00:47:43,920 Speaker 1: disbanded the labor unions and a lot of the sort 936 00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:48,920 Speaker 1: of like civil society organizations that could form the bedrock 937 00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:50,760 Speaker 1: of if you were going to have an actual revolution 938 00:47:50,840 --> 00:47:52,680 Speaker 1: of new government and all those sorts of things. So 939 00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:55,480 Speaker 1: that just makes the odds that much more difficult. But 940 00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:57,800 Speaker 1: we don't want to leave lose sight of their struggle, 941 00:47:57,840 --> 00:47:59,920 Speaker 1: because you do have people who are really, you know, 942 00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:03,279 Speaker 1: courageously fighting right now and for a very just cause. Yeah, 943 00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:06,080 Speaker 1: I think that's very true. Joining us now is author 944 00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:09,719 Speaker 1: Nicholas Eberstadt. He's the author of a fantastic book Men 945 00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:11,840 Speaker 1: Without Work. Let's gohe and put it up there on 946 00:48:12,040 --> 00:48:14,680 Speaker 1: the screen, which actually has a new introduction which is 947 00:48:14,719 --> 00:48:16,600 Speaker 1: part of the reason that we all wanted to talk 948 00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:21,400 Speaker 1: Men without Work, which demonstrates a crisis of male wages 949 00:48:21,480 --> 00:48:24,440 Speaker 1: of unemployment, talks about some of the reasons. So just 950 00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:27,200 Speaker 1: for contact Snick, we actually recently had Richard Reeves on 951 00:48:27,280 --> 00:48:29,360 Speaker 1: to discuss his book of Boys and Men, and we 952 00:48:29,440 --> 00:48:32,600 Speaker 1: got a tremendous response from our audience, and it's something 953 00:48:32,640 --> 00:48:34,840 Speaker 1: we want to tug on a little bit more. I 954 00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:37,000 Speaker 1: was familiar with your work now for quite some time, 955 00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:39,919 Speaker 1: so just describe maybe the original thesis of the book, 956 00:48:40,000 --> 00:48:42,520 Speaker 1: and then why it becomes even more relevant in the 957 00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:46,160 Speaker 1: aftershock of the COVID, after the COVID lockdowns and the 958 00:48:46,360 --> 00:48:49,600 Speaker 1: economy that we're all living in in twenty twenty two. Sure. Well, 959 00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:52,200 Speaker 1: it's a problem that's been hiding in plain sight for 960 00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:57,880 Speaker 1: almost two generations. We've been seeing this previously invisible crisis 961 00:48:58,040 --> 00:49:01,319 Speaker 1: of the collapse of work for men, mainly driven by 962 00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:05,360 Speaker 1: an exit from the workforce of prime age men of 963 00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:08,759 Speaker 1: twenty five to fifty four year olds. Let's say it's 964 00:49:08,880 --> 00:49:13,520 Speaker 1: been almost a straight line up from sixty five to 965 00:49:13,680 --> 00:49:16,080 Speaker 1: the present. I put out the first edition of this 966 00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:21,279 Speaker 1: book in twenty sixteen, and the unnerving, eerie thing is 967 00:49:21,840 --> 00:49:25,239 Speaker 1: the line I calculated for the exit from the workforce, 968 00:49:25,560 --> 00:49:29,359 Speaker 1: which is almost straight, has just continued right on from 969 00:49:29,440 --> 00:49:31,880 Speaker 1: twenty sixteen to the present. So we've got more than 970 00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:35,879 Speaker 1: seven million prime age guys neither working nor looking for work. 971 00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:40,440 Speaker 1: For every guy who's unemployed, they're over four who are 972 00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:43,800 Speaker 1: neither working nor looking for work today. And that is 973 00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:47,320 Speaker 1: why male work rates are now kind of at about 974 00:49:47,440 --> 00:49:52,360 Speaker 1: nineteen thirty seven levels. We have a depression scale problem 975 00:49:52,480 --> 00:49:55,160 Speaker 1: of work for men on our hands right now. And 976 00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:58,000 Speaker 1: that's obviously not the only thing going wrong in our 977 00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:02,239 Speaker 1: workforce right now. So do we know what men are 978 00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:06,600 Speaker 1: those men are doing instead of working in regular jobs. 979 00:50:06,640 --> 00:50:09,120 Speaker 1: And also I was curious and the statistics do things 980 00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:11,800 Speaker 1: like you know, driving for Uber or these sort of 981 00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:16,480 Speaker 1: like gig economy type of work? Is that included in 982 00:50:16,640 --> 00:50:19,759 Speaker 1: the statistics of men who are working that's supposed to 983 00:50:19,880 --> 00:50:24,600 Speaker 1: be included, Kristal, I mean, you know, in principle, in practice, 984 00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:28,200 Speaker 1: some of it may be missed. In practice, some moonlighting 985 00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:31,080 Speaker 1: may be missed. But the scale of the problem I 986 00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:34,279 Speaker 1: think is basically pretty for real. I think we the 987 00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:36,920 Speaker 1: scale of the problem isn't artificial, and so do we 988 00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:39,759 Speaker 1: have a sense of like what they're doing with their 989 00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:43,880 Speaker 1: days instead of work. So about a tenth, maybe a 990 00:50:43,920 --> 00:50:46,000 Speaker 1: little more than a tenth of these guys who are 991 00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:50,480 Speaker 1: not in the workforce are really full time students. The 992 00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:52,520 Speaker 1: way they behave, the way they act is more or 993 00:50:52,600 --> 00:50:56,040 Speaker 1: less like people who are employed, not surprisingly because they're 994 00:50:56,080 --> 00:50:59,360 Speaker 1: expecting to get back into the workforce. For the overwhelming 995 00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:03,880 Speaker 1: majority of the people who are neither employed nor in 996 00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:07,840 Speaker 1: education and training, you've got a really dispiriting picture that 997 00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:12,280 Speaker 1: is being painted by them. By their self reported answers 998 00:51:12,320 --> 00:51:16,360 Speaker 1: to surveys about how they spend their time, they basically 999 00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:19,640 Speaker 1: say that they don't do civil society, that they don't 1000 00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:25,799 Speaker 1: do worship or charity or volunteering. They say that they 1001 00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:30,440 Speaker 1: do remarkably little help around the house, either with people 1002 00:51:30,640 --> 00:51:34,719 Speaker 1: at home or with housework. What they report doing most 1003 00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:38,600 Speaker 1: is watching. We can't tell from the surveys what they're watching. 1004 00:51:38,680 --> 00:51:40,520 Speaker 1: We can't tell what type of devices or what the 1005 00:51:40,640 --> 00:51:44,040 Speaker 1: content is, but like two thousand hours a year, as 1006 00:51:44,080 --> 00:51:47,520 Speaker 1: if it were a full time job, and before the pandemic, 1007 00:51:47,680 --> 00:51:52,239 Speaker 1: they also reported almost half of these men reported that 1008 00:51:52,360 --> 00:51:55,840 Speaker 1: they were taking pain medication every day, some type of 1009 00:51:55,920 --> 00:51:59,280 Speaker 1: pain medication. So we've got a kind of a tableau 1010 00:51:59,520 --> 00:52:02,759 Speaker 1: suggesting that people are kind of prepping for deaths of 1011 00:52:02,880 --> 00:52:06,320 Speaker 1: despair in too many cases. And so what are the 1012 00:52:06,440 --> 00:52:09,759 Speaker 1: downstream social effects of this? Like why is this? Why 1013 00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:13,640 Speaker 1: should people care? In essence, well, what socialized costs are 1014 00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:15,960 Speaker 1: all of us incurring as a result of this crisis? 1015 00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:19,200 Speaker 1: You know, I've thought about that a lotsigar and as 1016 00:52:19,239 --> 00:52:21,360 Speaker 1: far as I can tell, there's absolutely nothing good that 1017 00:52:21,480 --> 00:52:24,960 Speaker 1: comes out of this. It leads to this huge gap 1018 00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:29,759 Speaker 1: in our workforce, means slower economic growth. It also means 1019 00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:34,240 Speaker 1: bigger income and wealth gaps in our society. It probably 1020 00:52:34,360 --> 00:52:38,680 Speaker 1: means more dependence upon social programs and social welfare over 1021 00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:44,560 Speaker 1: the long term, more pressure on fragile families, less social mobility, 1022 00:52:45,200 --> 00:52:49,959 Speaker 1: less involvement in society, and you know, trust in institutions. 1023 00:52:50,200 --> 00:52:52,720 Speaker 1: There's just to do the three sixty. There is nothing 1024 00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:55,239 Speaker 1: good that comes out of us. And what do you 1025 00:52:55,320 --> 00:52:58,960 Speaker 1: see as the spark that set this process in motion? 1026 00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:01,520 Speaker 1: Because I believe you it's basically a straight line. Since 1027 00:53:01,520 --> 00:53:04,239 Speaker 1: I think you said in nineteen sixty five. So what 1028 00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:07,480 Speaker 1: starts to happen that changes the dynamic that leads to 1029 00:53:07,640 --> 00:53:09,960 Speaker 1: this sort of you know, not just dropping out of 1030 00:53:10,120 --> 00:53:13,720 Speaker 1: the workforce, but becoming a sort of observer of society 1031 00:53:13,880 --> 00:53:18,760 Speaker 1: rather than a participant in altogether. It's a really profound question, Crystal, 1032 00:53:18,840 --> 00:53:21,200 Speaker 1: And since this has been going on for over half 1033 00:53:21,239 --> 00:53:24,880 Speaker 1: a century. I mean, it's an established historical fact, a 1034 00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:28,759 Speaker 1: big fact, and like other big established historical facts, it's 1035 00:53:28,800 --> 00:53:33,920 Speaker 1: probably got a lot of influences intertwined there. I can 1036 00:53:34,040 --> 00:53:36,359 Speaker 1: point to a couple of things. I mean, one has 1037 00:53:36,520 --> 00:53:41,960 Speaker 1: been the erosion of the previous family order in the 1038 00:53:42,080 --> 00:53:44,840 Speaker 1: United States, because the men who are never married or 1039 00:53:44,880 --> 00:53:47,160 Speaker 1: don't have kids at home are way less likely to 1040 00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:51,880 Speaker 1: be involved in the workforce too. Another is the expansion 1041 00:53:52,040 --> 00:53:56,680 Speaker 1: of social welfare benefits. Our system is very stingy, I've 1042 00:53:56,719 --> 00:53:59,080 Speaker 1: been told by anybody I talked to in Europe or 1043 00:53:59,160 --> 00:54:03,080 Speaker 1: other affluent societies in the world, but there can still 1044 00:54:03,200 --> 00:54:07,319 Speaker 1: be perverse disincentives, especially in our I think on our 1045 00:54:07,440 --> 00:54:15,560 Speaker 1: disability archipelago of programs to infantilize people who shouldn't be 1046 00:54:15,600 --> 00:54:19,879 Speaker 1: affected that way. We've seen We've also seen the explosion 1047 00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:23,000 Speaker 1: of crime and the explosion of punishment. This is a 1048 00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:27,640 Speaker 1: really big one. Our government does not collect any decent 1049 00:54:27,880 --> 00:54:33,840 Speaker 1: data on our invisible xcon population, but we have reason 1050 00:54:33,960 --> 00:54:37,000 Speaker 1: to think that there are now twenty five million American 1051 00:54:37,200 --> 00:54:40,640 Speaker 1: adults who have a felony in their background. And you 1052 00:54:40,760 --> 00:54:43,400 Speaker 1: know that mass incarceration is the problem we talk about. 1053 00:54:43,400 --> 00:54:46,120 Speaker 1: It's like two million people. That's less than a tenth 1054 00:54:46,360 --> 00:54:50,080 Speaker 1: of this big problem I'm mentioning. So about one in 1055 00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:54,759 Speaker 1: seven adult guys, by my calculation, has a felony in 1056 00:54:54,920 --> 00:54:59,080 Speaker 1: his background, and that has to be a big part 1057 00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:01,800 Speaker 1: of what we're seeing here. Are we seeing a similar 1058 00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:04,920 Speaker 1: trend in other developed nations or the US alone? In 1059 00:55:05,000 --> 00:55:10,040 Speaker 1: this in every rich country you see some decline in 1060 00:55:10,480 --> 00:55:15,960 Speaker 1: prime male labor force involvement. There is no other country 1061 00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:20,920 Speaker 1: in the rich democratic world that has had such a 1062 00:55:21,080 --> 00:55:24,600 Speaker 1: steady plunge as hours. I mean, of the two big 1063 00:55:24,800 --> 00:55:27,240 Speaker 1: rich countries in the world, the ones that are closest 1064 00:55:27,280 --> 00:55:30,279 Speaker 1: to being twins or Canada in the US, and our 1065 00:55:30,400 --> 00:55:34,680 Speaker 1: decline is way worse than Canada's. And so, in terms 1066 00:55:34,680 --> 00:55:37,759 Speaker 1: of solutions, what do you propose or there? Is it 1067 00:55:37,960 --> 00:55:41,080 Speaker 1: just socializing the conversation, getting people to debate it, getting 1068 00:55:41,120 --> 00:55:43,200 Speaker 1: people to acknowledge these facts because I don't see them 1069 00:55:43,239 --> 00:55:46,120 Speaker 1: really represented in our culture at all. No, I mean, 1070 00:55:47,719 --> 00:55:51,000 Speaker 1: this is an invisible crisis. Still, it baffles me why 1071 00:55:51,080 --> 00:55:53,560 Speaker 1: people aren't talking about this. I mean, maybe because the 1072 00:55:53,640 --> 00:55:56,560 Speaker 1: guys are too often dying deaths of despair and they're 1073 00:55:56,600 --> 00:55:59,400 Speaker 1: not burning cars or seeming to be a menace to society. 1074 00:56:00,360 --> 00:56:03,840 Speaker 1: In terms of big solutions, I forgot my magic wand today, 1075 00:56:04,000 --> 00:56:06,560 Speaker 1: so I can't fix the family and do other sorts 1076 00:56:06,600 --> 00:56:10,160 Speaker 1: of fundamental changes in our society, but government can still 1077 00:56:10,239 --> 00:56:15,520 Speaker 1: do things. We've got this gigantic vocational skill gap because 1078 00:56:15,600 --> 00:56:21,600 Speaker 1: our broken education system isn't preparing everybody the way they 1079 00:56:21,640 --> 00:56:24,680 Speaker 1: should to have a marketable skill when they graduate from 1080 00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:28,560 Speaker 1: K through twelve or from college. I think to have 1081 00:56:28,680 --> 00:56:33,960 Speaker 1: a work first principle in our social welfare programs. That 1082 00:56:34,120 --> 00:56:36,799 Speaker 1: might turn out to be more expensive, But even if 1083 00:56:36,840 --> 00:56:39,560 Speaker 1: it were more expensive, I think the consequences would be 1084 00:56:39,640 --> 00:56:42,360 Speaker 1: better for our society, and we should be shining a 1085 00:56:42,440 --> 00:56:47,920 Speaker 1: spotlight on our invisible XCOM population. We can't have evidence 1086 00:56:48,000 --> 00:56:51,600 Speaker 1: based policies for getting these millions and millions of Americans 1087 00:56:51,719 --> 00:56:55,359 Speaker 1: back into employment and families and societies if we don't 1088 00:56:55,360 --> 00:56:58,480 Speaker 1: have the evidence. One thing that I think is important 1089 00:56:59,080 --> 00:57:02,240 Speaker 1: distinction that you have been making, which I think really matters, 1090 00:57:02,480 --> 00:57:05,040 Speaker 1: is you know, to me, like work is not everything. 1091 00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:07,080 Speaker 1: There are a lot of ways to find meaning in 1092 00:57:07,239 --> 00:57:09,879 Speaker 1: life that's outside of like a nine to five job. 1093 00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:13,279 Speaker 1: But what you're pointing to as a larger crisis of 1094 00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:17,120 Speaker 1: just sort of total disconnection. And as you're saying, I 1095 00:57:17,240 --> 00:57:19,800 Speaker 1: can't imagine that that ends in any good place, certainly 1096 00:57:19,880 --> 00:57:22,960 Speaker 1: for these individual men, for you know, the people who 1097 00:57:23,000 --> 00:57:25,760 Speaker 1: are around them who may depend on them for various things, 1098 00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:28,640 Speaker 1: or for society as a whole. Do we have any 1099 00:57:28,720 --> 00:57:33,240 Speaker 1: sort of historical models of what this looks like? Well, yeah, 1100 00:57:33,280 --> 00:57:37,480 Speaker 1: I mean back in the eighteen hundreds there was a 1101 00:57:37,840 --> 00:57:43,360 Speaker 1: sociologist called Emil Burkheim who talked about anomy and aptimization. 1102 00:57:43,720 --> 00:57:46,120 Speaker 1: He did a lot of work on suicide and things 1103 00:57:46,280 --> 00:57:49,000 Speaker 1: like that. I mean, you can go I mean, if 1104 00:57:49,040 --> 00:57:51,560 Speaker 1: you want to kind of play fancy pants, you can 1105 00:57:51,640 --> 00:57:55,520 Speaker 1: go all the way back to Aristotle and talk about 1106 00:57:55,560 --> 00:58:01,120 Speaker 1: how he noticed that human beings were social creatures, that 1107 00:58:01,240 --> 00:58:04,320 Speaker 1: they needed to be part of society to thrive, and 1108 00:58:05,040 --> 00:58:07,280 Speaker 1: that part of our human nature I don't think has 1109 00:58:07,400 --> 00:58:10,600 Speaker 1: changed in twenty five hundred years. So you've got people 1110 00:58:10,680 --> 00:58:14,000 Speaker 1: who have who are dropped out of work, dropped out 1111 00:58:14,080 --> 00:58:17,840 Speaker 1: of family, dropped out of community, dropped out of faith. 1112 00:58:18,640 --> 00:58:22,240 Speaker 1: Why do we think this experiment could end well? Ever? Yeah, 1113 00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:24,480 Speaker 1: I think that's really well. So last question for you 1114 00:58:24,640 --> 00:58:26,840 Speaker 1: talked about some of the sort of like the sticks 1115 00:58:26,880 --> 00:58:30,560 Speaker 1: in particular of you know, having a work requirement for 1116 00:58:31,120 --> 00:58:34,760 Speaker 1: welfare programs. I'm a little bit skeptical of that, especially 1117 00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:37,479 Speaker 1: because of the evidence around universal basic income that shows 1118 00:58:37,520 --> 00:58:39,680 Speaker 1: there isn't really a drop off and like interest or 1119 00:58:39,960 --> 00:58:42,240 Speaker 1: working when you receive those payments. We'll put that to 1120 00:58:42,520 --> 00:58:46,360 Speaker 1: debate aside. What about just making work more appealing? I mean, 1121 00:58:46,440 --> 00:58:48,560 Speaker 1: during the time period you're talking about, you've had union 1122 00:58:48,640 --> 00:58:52,280 Speaker 1: rates massively declining over some significant portion of those decades. 1123 00:58:52,320 --> 00:58:55,800 Speaker 1: You've actually had male wages going down. So you know, 1124 00:58:56,080 --> 00:58:59,080 Speaker 1: it's not crazy for guys to look at that and say, 1125 00:58:59,160 --> 00:59:01,120 Speaker 1: like this is just not worth it. Like I can 1126 00:59:01,200 --> 00:59:03,440 Speaker 1: work my ass off and still not be able to 1127 00:59:03,840 --> 00:59:07,600 Speaker 1: buy a house, have a family, like live that American dream, 1128 00:59:07,760 --> 00:59:11,240 Speaker 1: So why should I bother? Well, I think we had 1129 00:59:11,280 --> 00:59:13,560 Speaker 1: a little bit of a kind of a natural experiment 1130 00:59:13,720 --> 00:59:18,240 Speaker 1: during the pandemic in twenty twenty and twenty twenty one, 1131 00:59:18,800 --> 00:59:23,360 Speaker 1: immigration to the United States was severely disrupted. There was 1132 00:59:23,400 --> 00:59:26,400 Speaker 1: all of this argument about our immigrants stealing American jobs. 1133 00:59:28,160 --> 00:59:33,000 Speaker 1: The native US born work rate for guys did not 1134 00:59:33,160 --> 00:59:34,960 Speaker 1: go up or for anybody else to not go up 1135 00:59:35,040 --> 00:59:37,440 Speaker 1: during that period. It's still way lower than it was 1136 00:59:37,560 --> 00:59:44,200 Speaker 1: before the pandemic. We had a more rapid increase in wages, 1137 00:59:44,480 --> 00:59:49,880 Speaker 1: especially for the lower occupational skill levels in twenty twenty one, 1138 00:59:50,120 --> 00:59:52,560 Speaker 1: than we'd had in a long time, and it didn't 1139 00:59:52,600 --> 00:59:55,680 Speaker 1: seem to have a big effect of bringing people back. 1140 00:59:56,080 --> 00:59:59,920 Speaker 1: I mean, there's a very good argument for having higher wages, 1141 01:00:00,040 --> 01:00:02,360 Speaker 1: because we want to have a prosperous society and we 1142 01:00:02,480 --> 01:00:05,840 Speaker 1: want to have escalators that work for people. The troubling 1143 01:00:05,960 --> 01:00:10,040 Speaker 1: thing is that there's there's reason to think that once 1144 01:00:10,120 --> 01:00:13,520 Speaker 1: people drop out of the labor force, especially guys from 1145 01:00:13,560 --> 01:00:18,040 Speaker 1: this prime age group, that they tend to remain long timers, 1146 01:00:18,160 --> 01:00:21,120 Speaker 1: long termers. That isn't so much. That has not been 1147 01:00:21,200 --> 01:00:23,640 Speaker 1: true with women so much. I mean, we have the 1148 01:00:24,120 --> 01:00:28,200 Speaker 1: existence proof of moms who go out of the workforce 1149 01:00:28,240 --> 01:00:30,760 Speaker 1: and go back in, but they have a very different 1150 01:00:30,840 --> 01:00:33,720 Speaker 1: set of skills. They don't get any sick days, or 1151 01:00:33,840 --> 01:00:38,960 Speaker 1: vacation days from their kids. Right there. The reliable, dependable 1152 01:00:39,120 --> 01:00:43,080 Speaker 1: people that employers want. The sorts of habits that people 1153 01:00:43,320 --> 01:00:47,280 Speaker 1: develop if they're guys on the couch with pain medication 1154 01:00:47,840 --> 01:00:52,680 Speaker 1: is not what employers are looking for. Wow, really interesting subject. 1155 01:00:52,760 --> 01:00:53,760 Speaker 1: You know, I think we're just going to have to 1156 01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:55,800 Speaker 1: keep diving into it, and I appreciate your work just 1157 01:00:55,840 --> 01:00:58,200 Speaker 1: putting the data out there. You know, data in itself 1158 01:00:58,280 --> 01:01:00,800 Speaker 1: is way for us to spark a conversation. So thanks 1159 01:01:00,880 --> 01:01:03,920 Speaker 1: very much, sir, Thank you for joining us. Yeah, our pleasure. 1160 01:01:05,160 --> 01:01:07,080 Speaker 1: Thank you guys so much for watching. We really appreciate 1161 01:01:07,160 --> 01:01:10,080 Speaker 1: your support. It's just been amazing to watch. If you can, Godman, 1162 01:01:10,160 --> 01:01:11,960 Speaker 1: join us in Chicago. We've got a great show plan 1163 01:01:12,080 --> 01:01:14,440 Speaker 1: for everybody. Link is down in the description. If you 1164 01:01:14,480 --> 01:01:16,680 Speaker 1: can continue to support the expansion because of all of 1165 01:01:16,720 --> 01:01:19,600 Speaker 1: our premium subscribers, hired somebody new we're going to be 1166 01:01:19,680 --> 01:01:23,320 Speaker 1: revealing that sometime soon, and we've got Counterpoints, which is 1167 01:01:23,440 --> 01:01:26,440 Speaker 1: just doing phenomenally well. We really appreciate just watching the 1168 01:01:26,480 --> 01:01:29,280 Speaker 1: show grow purely as a result of your enthusiasm, so 1169 01:01:29,360 --> 01:01:32,120 Speaker 1: we can't thank you enough. Link is down the description. Otherwise, 1170 01:01:32,200 --> 01:01:33,920 Speaker 1: great content for you. The weekend and we'll see you 1171 01:01:33,960 --> 01:01:35,600 Speaker 1: on Monday. Love you guys, see you Monday,