Speaker 1: Welcome back to It's the Numbers Game with Ryan Gridowski.
Speaker 1: I want to start by saying two things. One, give
Speaker 1: a moment of a moment to honor the great memory
Speaker 1: of Spirit Airline. And the thousands of Instagram reels that
Speaker 1: filled my page of people throwing luggage out the window
Speaker 1: or you know, getting into fistfights. They were really great entertainment. Also,
Speaker 1: I've talked a lot of this podcasts of personal victories.
Speaker 1: I made a meal the other day that was phenomenal.
Speaker 1: I'm going to talk about it during the Ask Me
Speaker 1: Anything segment because I know most people are heard for
Speaker 1: politics and not for any of my big bag of bs.
Speaker 1: But this was phenomenal, and some people do like my
Speaker 1: Italian recipes, my Italian food. I'm going to give you
Speaker 1: guys that at the end of the episode. Okay, let's
Speaker 1: get into the numbers of how Republicans can win the
Speaker 1: majority in the House of Representatives in November. I know
Speaker 1: everyone's already assumed it's a bygone conclusion. It's too far fetched.
Speaker 1: We can't win. It's going to be a twenty eighteen blowout.
Speaker 1: I've been breaking down the numbers and they're not as
Speaker 1: bad as people think. There are, there are a lot
Speaker 1: of ifs, there's a lot that could change, and a
Speaker 1: lot of things do change from now until election day.
Speaker 1: But it's not as big a reach as even I
Speaker 1: thought it was. So let's first get into the redistricting fight,
Speaker 1: because a lot is centered on the redistricting fight of
Speaker 1: what's going on with these new congressional districts. Since the
Speaker 1: Supreme Court ruled against race based redistricting, and remember the
Speaker 1: DOJ said they're going to enforce lawsuits against race based redistricting,
Speaker 1: there's been a lot of movements, mostly in the Southern states,
Speaker 1: ahead of the November election. Now there's a big problem
Speaker 1: in the sense that there's time. And this is what
Speaker 1: I heard in DC circles was that the liberal justices
Speaker 1: were taking such a long time to deliberate to give
Speaker 1: their opinions on the case because they wanted to hold
Speaker 1: it up as long as possible to give Republican states
Speaker 1: as little time as pots to redistrict ahead of the midterms.
Speaker 1: And this is, by the way, I'm not like breaking news.
Speaker 1: This was told wildly throughout Washington, d C. Now, the
Speaker 1: crazy thing is going into this. Almost all the Southern
Speaker 1: states have governors who cannot run for reelection right. Governors
Speaker 1: in Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina, they're all set
Speaker 1: to retire this year, so part of them are looking
Speaker 1: at this as I'm going to build my legacy that
Speaker 1: I'm for my idea of fairness. I'm going to get
Speaker 1: a nice up in the New York Times when I die,
Speaker 1: the obituary from established media are going to say I
Speaker 1: stood up for black majority districts, or they're saying my
Speaker 1: legacy will be the I delivered Republicans more congressional districts.
Speaker 1: It's a very unusual thing because there's not as much
Speaker 1: political pressure that can be applied to a governor who
Speaker 1: is retiring as the one who needs to run for
Speaker 1: reelection in the future. And we're seeing this in this redistricting,
Speaker 1: you know, escape what's going on right now. First of all,
Speaker 1: let's look with the states that are not redistioncing that
Speaker 1: said off the top, I'm not redistricting Georgia being number one,
Speaker 1: Georgia could redistrict one to two seats in Republicans favor
Speaker 1: predominantly one the one in South Georgia for sure, and
Speaker 1: Brian Kemp has said no obviously Brian Kemp. Anyone who
Speaker 1: follows and who knows Brian Kemp is not a big
Speaker 1: fan of Donald Trump. Stalin Trump's not a big fan
Speaker 1: of Brian Kemp. Trump tried to primary Camp. Kemp obviously
Speaker 1: came out as a big victor, but there is no
Speaker 1: love lost between the two of them. But he has
Speaker 1: said flat out I'm not redistricting, so take those seats.
Speaker 1: That seats are two seats off the table. Others state
Speaker 1: that's not redistrict is South Carolina. South Carolina, they have
Speaker 1: one predominantly black district which is which is where Jim
Speaker 1: Clyburn is the representative. Now, for those who are know,
Speaker 1: Jim Clyburn was the head of was in Democratic leadership
Speaker 1: for a long time. Whenever like Nancy Pelosis to take
Speaker 1: those pictures with like house Democratic leadership, he was the older,
Speaker 1: bald black gentleman next to Nancy Pelosi all the time.
Speaker 1: He is a powerhouse in South Carolina. He is the
Speaker 1: Democratic Party of South Carolina and he most famously is
Speaker 1: the reason that Joe Biden won the nomination in twenty twenty.
Speaker 1: He was that he changed the trajectory of Biden's losing
Speaker 1: campaign because of his endorsement, Biden won South Carolina, then
Speaker 1: he won more southern states. The black vote came for him,
Speaker 1: and that's after he got obliterated in Iowa and New
Speaker 1: Hampshire and Nevada, and people were like, well, it's kind
Speaker 1: of over for Joe. Clyburn has immense political power, and
Speaker 1: even in the Democratic Party, even with Nancy Pelosi retiring
Speaker 1: and all the rest of them kind of leaving, he
Speaker 1: still wields a lot of power and a lot of
Speaker 1: power for the state. And I think maybe a calculation
Speaker 1: could be that they want him there in Congress in
Speaker 1: case they need money for the state and the Democrats
Speaker 1: of the House or whatnot. Anyway, so Henry McMasters, according
Speaker 1: to the Post Courier, says he is not redistracting, and
Speaker 1: I kind of believe that that's where they, like, let's
Speaker 1: talk about the places that are redistriing, pending some lawsuits.
Speaker 1: First of Tennessee, I'm actually surprised Tennessee only has one
Speaker 1: Democrat district, one black majority district. It is the district
Speaker 1: in Memphis. If you look at a map of Tennessee, right,
Speaker 1: it all looks red, ruby, red. There's one little, tiny
Speaker 1: little spot that is where there's the democratic district. It's
Speaker 1: kind of even hard to redistrict because it's really in
Speaker 1: the corner and it's so democratic. But the governor, Governor
Speaker 1: Lee has said that he is going to push forward
Speaker 1: arm redistricting, and not only it's going to be redistricting,
Speaker 1: they're going to overturn a fifty year law that allows
Speaker 1: them to do mid decade redistricting. It was illegal in
Speaker 1: Tennessee like it's illegal in New Jersey and many other places.
Speaker 1: So they're going to overturn this law and once again
Speaker 1: do that. They're going to take the Memphis district and
Speaker 1: split it into three that will give Republicans a new
Speaker 1: seat out of Tennessee. The congressman who's been there for sometimes,
Speaker 1: Steve Cohen, he represents Tennessee. He has basically said that
Speaker 1: this is gonna end up in litigation. They're going to
Speaker 1: fight this in litigation. But whether or not they win
Speaker 1: this in twenty twenty six, they're losing the seat in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight. He has acknowledged that this seat is gone.
Speaker 1: It will be a Republican seat come twenty twenty eight,
Speaker 1: and Tennessee's gonna get another seat, probably by twenty thirty two,
Speaker 1: it's very likely to So Tennessee. All these people moving
Speaker 1: to it, they're very quickly adding seats, and they can.
Speaker 1: East Tennessee is so Republican that if they push keep
Speaker 1: putting East Tennessee further central, they'll have enough for Publican
Speaker 1: votes to make sure that they can continue to make
Speaker 1: the all those seats Republican. So Tennessee is the one
Speaker 1: for Republicans, going one seat for Republican. Next over is Alabama. Okay,
Speaker 1: this state is a mess. It is a mess. It
Speaker 1: is you have no I've been hearing from stories from
Speaker 1: people constantly. So initially Governor k Ivy, she's allegedly, well,
Speaker 1: she's not allegedly a very old woman, but she's an
Speaker 1: older lady and older, a woman of a certain age
Speaker 1: who allegedly likes the drink in the middle of the day.
Speaker 1: And she did not want any redistricting. She was saying
Speaker 1: flat out, I'm not redistricting, I'm not doing anything. And
Speaker 1: the leader of the state Senate in Alabama was a
Speaker 1: longtime Democrat who recently fairly recently became a Republican, so
Speaker 1: he's not even gung ho about it either, And she
Speaker 1: said I'm not redistricting period. Well, she blinked. She said,
Speaker 1: now we're going to redistrict. A big question is to
Speaker 1: do they do redistrict one seat or two, because they're
Speaker 1: saying what I'm hearing is is that she wants to
Speaker 1: go back to the old map, the map from before
Speaker 1: the lawsuit, which is one democratic seat. However, it's a
Speaker 1: democratic seat that basically captures almost the entire large portion
Speaker 1: of the black vote in Alabama. Well, you can't do
Speaker 1: that because we're against race based redistricting. So how do
Speaker 1: you have she say, Now, they could make a democratic
Speaker 1: seat if they made like Birmingham and the surrounding areas,
Speaker 1: And in that case, it's a democratic seat, but it's
Speaker 1: not that democratic. It's really a swing seat. They can
Speaker 1: make that a Republican seat, but a swing Republican seat
Speaker 1: as well. There's other things to do besides make it
Speaker 1: a full blown Republican seat. But if we can't do
Speaker 1: race based redistricting, I don't know how she does the
Speaker 1: old map that she says she's going to do. There's
Speaker 1: this really big push on the part of Republicans in
Speaker 1: Alabama to protect Democrat Terry Sewell's district. Terry Sewell is
Speaker 1: not a moderate Democrat in any sense. She votes as
Speaker 1: left as Bernie Sanders does. I mean, it's one for
Speaker 1: the other. It's, you know, instead of a Jewish guy
Speaker 1: from Vermont, it's a black woman from Alabama. They vote
Speaker 1: exactly the same. The need to protect her or the
Speaker 1: fight to protect her is what's going on in Alabama
Speaker 1: right now. We'll see how that kind of plays out.
Speaker 1: The person who's pushing hardest for this seven zero map.
Speaker 1: We're all republic there's all Republican seats is Senator Tommy Tupperville.
Speaker 1: He is very likely going to be the next governor.
Speaker 1: He's essentially the nominee now and and it's Alabama, so
Speaker 1: he'll he'll be He's very very very likely going to
Speaker 1: be the next governor. He wants a seven o map.
Speaker 1: He wants this very badly. He's been lobbing for it,
Speaker 1: he's been fighting for it. We'll see if he gets
Speaker 1: his way or if k Ivy gets her way. It's
Speaker 1: very much but even though they're both people of a
Speaker 1: certain age, it's very much a generational fight in the
Speaker 1: in the mindset of who they are as Republicans versus
Speaker 1: in the ages of who they are as Republicans, but
Speaker 1: Tuberville has been a one man machine wrecking ball. And
Speaker 1: if they get the seven zero map where it's all
Speaker 1: seven districts, a big credit goes to Tommy Tupperville more than
Speaker 1: basically any It was Marshall Blackburn was very for the
Speaker 1: Tennessee See, but Blackburn and Tuberville have been the two
Speaker 1: senators really fighting for redistricting their state's map. Over in Mississippi,
Speaker 1: Governor Tate Reeves he is not of a reale or
Speaker 1: retirement this year, but Governor Tate Reeves has said off
Speaker 1: the bat they are redistricting that seat, so that will
Speaker 1: be Benny Thomas's seat, will be a republic can see,
Speaker 1: that will be an extra Republican seat for Republicans or
Speaker 1: extra seat for Republicans out of Mississippi, and that leaves
Speaker 1: us with Louisiana. The Louisiana has two Democratic seats, one
Speaker 1: based out of predominantly New Orleans and one out of
Speaker 1: Baton Rouge. So let me tell you guys a little story.
Speaker 1: This is not that long ago. It was like six
Speaker 1: or seven years ago when the lawsuit came out where
Speaker 1: they had to draw a second Democratic seat. I there's
Speaker 1: a man in Louisiana. He was a congressman. His name
Speaker 1: is Garrett Graves. I don't know who's cereal this man
Speaker 1: peed in, but for whatever reason, he is the most
Speaker 1: Hayden man in Louisiana. He's a Republican and they purposely
Speaker 1: drew his house into this new Democratic district. They did
Speaker 1: not want him having a seat in Congress. They were like,
Speaker 1: we're getting rid of this guy, and that's that. Well,
Speaker 1: now they're talking about redistricting. They're having a conversation about giving,
Speaker 1: you know, either either all Republican seats or one Democratic seat.
Speaker 1: They what I'm hearing this is alleged. Allegedly they do
Speaker 1: not want to give all Republican seats because they don't
Speaker 1: even want the possibility of Garrett Graves running for his
Speaker 1: old seat to get What did this man do that
Speaker 1: everyone can't stand him. It's it's quite bizarre. So if
Speaker 1: they did the old map, which basically breaks up the
Speaker 1: Baton Rouge district into several different different districts, it opens
Speaker 1: up a seat in central to northern Louisiana. The population
Speaker 1: center where population is growing, however, is in southeast Louisiana.
Speaker 1: It's the way Saint Tammany Parish and Orleans Parish and
Speaker 1: Jefferson Parish. They are they want they're going to break
Speaker 1: up the New Orleans District, which is much harder to
Speaker 1: break up really because it's much more it's much more democratic.
Speaker 1: They're going to break up the New Orleans District and
Speaker 1: make another Republican district, more in the south, more in
Speaker 1: the east, away from Garret Graves's house. That's what I'm hearing.
Speaker 1: That's how desperately they want to prevent this man from
Speaker 1: being able to run for office again once again. Don't
Speaker 1: know who we pissed off, but he pissed somebody up
Speaker 1: royally that this is like an eight year long feud.
Speaker 1: Louisiana can get messy. It really can. Having lived there
Speaker 1: now for a bit, Uh, it's he can get really messy.
Speaker 1: It would be hilarious though. If I end up in
Speaker 1: a seat that's like a vacant Republican seat, I will
Speaker 1: get calls immediately saying, hey, just do it for fun
Speaker 1: run for office. I will not do it, but it
Speaker 1: will be funny. Okay. So if you add all those
Speaker 1: hes together that, depending on what Alabama does, that creates
Speaker 1: four or five new Republican districts. Now, there is also
Speaker 1: the two core cases that we're looking at that will
Speaker 1: also decide this, the first being in Virginia and the
Speaker 1: second being in Florida. Let's srob with Florida first. In Florida,
Speaker 1: Ronda Santa's redistricted his map, creating four new Republican majority districts,
Speaker 1: districts that Trump won anyway by a good margin. While
Speaker 1: all those maps are in the middle of a new
Speaker 1: lawsuit by Mark Elias. He's a Democratic lawyer. He's a
Speaker 1: pretty awful person. Constantly tries to make bluestates, redistrict Republicans
Speaker 1: out of existence. Says he fights for democracy, but he
Speaker 1: works really hard and making sure voters, depending on how
Speaker 1: they vote, don't get any say, and who their congressman is,
Speaker 1: make sure they're all democratic seats. He tried to get
Speaker 1: rid of the stadn Island seat put into Manhattan. He's
Speaker 1: awful anyway, He is suing the He is suing Florida,
Speaker 1: and because the claim that he is saying is if
Speaker 1: flies in the face of Florida's Fair District's Amendment, which
Speaker 1: was passed in twenty ten. The amendment says it's in
Speaker 1: the Florida constitution maps cannot be drawn to favor an
Speaker 1: incumbent or a political party. DeSantis are saying that that
Speaker 1: they're not but there because they're compact maps. We'll see
Speaker 1: how that goes. I mean, it seems like markle Lies
Speaker 1: has a case to be made. We'll see how the
Speaker 1: court does it. It is going to I think a
Speaker 1: Republican judge at first. I could see it's working its
Speaker 1: way up to the Florida Supreme Court, which is very
Speaker 1: Republican as well. But that will be an interesting question
Speaker 1: of whether Mark Elias wins and if if he loses,
Speaker 1: those are foremost he's going to Republicans. The more interesting
Speaker 1: case is the one in Virginia over their referendum. Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm going to read court documents to you. Per court documents,
Speaker 1: Virginia Democrats advanced the proposal during the twenty twenty four
Speaker 1: special session of the general election. However, there are strict
Speaker 1: rules as to what kind of legislation can be considered
Speaker 1: during these types of sessions. Democratocrats reportedly violated those rules.
Speaker 1: As results, any action has taking place. It taking place
Speaker 1: to advance the plan would be deemed illegal. That is
Speaker 1: what the court case is saying. The court case is
Speaker 1: saying there are certain time restrictions on how this referendum
Speaker 1: could have gone forward. In Virginia. Democrats broke the law
Speaker 1: when they put far Or this ballot initiative that passed
Speaker 1: by three points. So so far it's made its way
Speaker 1: to the Virginia Supreme Court. The Virginia Supreme Court has
Speaker 1: not certified this election results despite it being a week
Speaker 1: now and as of Friday, they were supposed to decide
Speaker 1: by Priory, they had not decided yet. As of the
Speaker 1: according's podcast, they have not decided. And according to Dan
Speaker 1: Turntime from The Huddle, he's been on this podcast before,
Speaker 1: loved Dan Turntime, He's a longtime democratic strategist. He said
Speaker 1: that there is growing anxiety among Democrats Virginia Democrats and
Speaker 1: fights kind of happening behind the scenes because Spamberger initially
Speaker 1: told the legislator, we can't do this, it is not legal,
Speaker 1: and she was kind of strong armed into this position.
Speaker 1: And her approval rating. I've done multiple episodes. Her prooting
Speaker 1: is tanking because of this. Her provoting is falling apart
Speaker 1: because of this. So he says he gives it less
Speaker 1: than a fifth DP percent chance that they certify this election.
Speaker 1: If that happens, used blowback to Spamburger, usable like to
Speaker 1: Democrats who spend sixty five million dollars sixty six million
Speaker 1: dollars on this redistrict effort that went nowhere, and the
Speaker 1: Octagerian Speaker of the House, who's completely delusional at this point.
Speaker 1: But if that happens, that would give Republicans a chance
Speaker 1: at another four seats, So fourig in Virginia, four in Florida,
Speaker 1: and four to five in the Deep South. Thirteen seats total.
Speaker 1: That's a lot of ifs. I want to reminder that's
Speaker 1: a lot of if if if so. Nothing is set
Speaker 1: in stone, but those are the initial things that we
Speaker 1: need to track and look forward to in order to
Speaker 1: see what what the map actually looks like. Do Republicans
Speaker 1: really have this chance? If all three of those things happen,
Speaker 1: Republicans will start out with about two hundred and ten
Speaker 1: seats in Congress, two hundred and nine, two hundred and ten,
Speaker 1: two hundred eight. It'sing like that, depending on what you
Speaker 1: say is a tossup seat. It's a little nuanced, but
Speaker 1: between two undred eight to two hundred and ten seats,
Speaker 1: they only need another ten at most to win the majority.
Speaker 1: How do they do that? How do they win the majority?
Speaker 1: We'll get back into that coming up next. As I
Speaker 1: said before, if Republicans manage the reditioning wins in the
Speaker 1: Deep South in the lawsuit in Virginia and the lawsuit
Speaker 1: in Florida, they start off this map with about two
Speaker 1: hundred and nine to two hundred and ten House seats,
Speaker 1: They need two hundred and eighteen to win the majority, right,
Speaker 1: eight to ten more depending on what you call a
Speaker 1: swing district. How do they do that? Where are those
Speaker 1: eight seats? Right? That's where we want to look at.
Speaker 1: Where is the eight seats to create the majority? All right,
Speaker 1: let's first go into the seats that they're going to
Speaker 1: defend in the House represented Where are they going to
Speaker 1: gun to take out seats, especially that Kamala Harris won
Speaker 1: but or Republican represents them in Congress? The first being
Speaker 1: Mike Lawler seat in New York seventeen. That's the Rockland
Speaker 1: County seat. His seat will be very dependent on how
Speaker 1: the Orthodox Jewish vote. The other seat is saving his
Speaker 1: first congressional district, that's Bucks County and a little bit
Speaker 1: north of Bucks a little bit of the Philadelphia suburb Areia.
Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick is the most liberal member of the Congress by
Speaker 1: a long shot, but he is a fundraising machine and
Speaker 1: he's very popular in his seat. I actually don't even
Speaker 1: have his seat as a toss. I think his seat
Speaker 1: is actually probably lean Republican, despite Kamala Harris having won it.
Speaker 1: That's the two that are the peak, you know, Preak
Speaker 1: targets for the for the Democrats that Republicans need to defend.
Speaker 1: And they both have kind of special conditions. Lawler Very
Speaker 1: has a very orthodox Jewish sheet. Fitzpatrick, he's a very
Speaker 1: liberal Republican, but in a seat that he has a
Speaker 1: lot of money and he's personally very popular. He only
Speaker 1: votes with Republicans like fifty five percent of the time,
Speaker 1: so he's considered an independent. So there's seats in the northeast.
Speaker 1: There's Scott Perry. He represents Harrisburg in Pennsylvania ten. It's Harrisburg,
Speaker 1: it's surrounding areas. Perry is a very conservative congressman in
Speaker 1: a district that's moving to the left very quickly as
Speaker 1: more people from Maryland and New Jersey and Philadelphia move
Speaker 1: to that area of the state. Then there's two other districts,
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania eight Rob Brushman, and then there's Pennsylvania seven, Ryan McKenzie.
Speaker 1: Those are the two northeast Pennsylvania seats. They're both freshmen.
Speaker 1: It will be a tough battle to fight. And right
Speaker 1: over the river is Tom Kean over in New Jersey seven.
Speaker 1: So those is like, that's the biggest compact of swing
Speaker 1: areas that all touch each other, those two in Pennsylvania
Speaker 1: and the one in New Jersey, and then a little
Speaker 1: further away is Pennsylvania ten. Republicans would have to defend
Speaker 1: those seats. But that's five right there. Those are five
Speaker 1: seats right there that Republicans would need to defend. And
Speaker 1: if you can they defend them, if they can win them,
Speaker 1: that takes the pressure immediately off the rest of the map.
Speaker 1: Now in the southeast, almost all the seats are safe
Speaker 1: Republican except for Chuck Edwards from North Carolina. You're like,
Speaker 1: who is Chuck Edwards. Chuck Edwards represents the Mountains of Appalachia.
Speaker 1: He is He took over from Madison Cawthorne when Madison
Speaker 1: Cawthorne had all his scandals. Well, Chuck Edwards now running
Speaker 1: for reelection, His first reelection has tons of scandals. He
Speaker 1: allegedly is under ethical investigation for allegedly having an affair
Speaker 1: with a staffer and, according to Axios, made multiple female
Speaker 1: staffers very uncomfortable giving them handwritten notes. One of the
Speaker 1: letters said that the staffer wrote a had quote written
Speaker 1: a complex chapter to his heart. That is just so stupid. Anyway,
Speaker 1: he like, you know, this is such a weird congress
Speaker 1: where you have everyone from Corey Mills to Eric Slowell.
Speaker 1: Everyone's no one keep it in their pants, keep it
Speaker 1: in your pants, and run for reelection. All right. He
Speaker 1: is going to have issues because of his personal stuff
Speaker 1: going on, but otherwise it is a pretty likely Republican seat.
Speaker 1: He's going to be controversial. Whoever thought that the man
Speaker 1: following Madison Catherine would be more controversial. But he's more
Speaker 1: controversial if the Virginia lawsuit. By the way, also with
Speaker 1: the Republicans win that Jen Kiggins and Pennsylvania, it's sort
Speaker 1: in Virginia. Second, that's the Virginia Beach district that will
Speaker 1: also be very competitive. Okay, but that's how you That's
Speaker 1: the entire southeast over in the Midwest, there are five seats,
Speaker 1: two in Michigan, one in Wisconsin and two in Iowa.
Speaker 1: You have over in Michigan you have the vacant seat
Speaker 1: that John James is leaving outside of Detroit and Tom
Speaker 1: Barrett seat that's kind of more central Michigan. That's Michigan. Seven.
Speaker 1: Over in Wisconsin you have Western Wisconsin. Wisconsin's third district.
Speaker 1: Derek Van Orden represents that district. He's in a lot
Speaker 1: of trouble. And in Iowa, there's really three swing seats
Speaker 1: in Iowa, but there's two that are really in a
Speaker 1: lot of trouble. There is the pro amnesty Republican Zach
Speaker 1: Nunn his seat in southwest Iowa. And then there's Marionette
Speaker 1: Miller Meeks. Mmm, she's in southeast Iowa. Let me tell
Speaker 1: you she doesn't get talked about a lot, Marionette Miller Meeks,
Speaker 1: but she is the face of persistence, this lady. She
Speaker 1: ran three times for the seat, lost all three times,
Speaker 1: then ran for state Senate, won the state Senate seat.
Speaker 1: Then she runs again a fourth time after using three times,
Speaker 1: and she wins by six votes out of four hundred
Speaker 1: thousand casts. She wins comfortably the second time, and then
Speaker 1: the third time she wins by eight hundred votes out
Speaker 1: of four hundred and fifteen thousand casts. She pulls out
Speaker 1: sweekers like no one's business. Can she do it again?
Speaker 1: Who's to say. We'll find out very quickly, but yeah,
Speaker 1: she triple ms Marionette Miller meeks Is. She's able to
Speaker 1: pull by Vi sweevers by in a district that Trump
Speaker 1: won overwhelmingly. So it's not like a uge. It's not
Speaker 1: Susan Collins. This is not a big accomplishment. She should
Speaker 1: be able to win there by good margins, and she can,
Speaker 1: but she does win, so it's very strange. Okay. The
Speaker 1: other seat that Republicans Democrats are targeting is the Omaha
Speaker 1: seat Nebraska that is vacated by Dom Bacon. That seat
Speaker 1: is most likely going to Democrats. It's very unlikely they're
Speaker 1: going to Republicans will hold that seat. It's a vacant seat. Okay.
Speaker 1: Over in the Mountain States and the south West is
Speaker 1: just a handful of seats. Last left to defend Gabe Evans.
Speaker 1: He represents Koloras eighth, that's the suburbs of Denver. You
Speaker 1: have Juan Siscamani. He represents this like southeast Arizona, and
Speaker 1: you have a suburban a seat district one which is
Speaker 1: a vacant representing the Phoenix suburbs. That's really it. That's
Speaker 1: the entire landscape. If you want, if Democrats had a
Speaker 1: really good year, they could stretch. They can go out
Speaker 1: for Iowa's first district, they could go after Monica de
Speaker 1: la Cruz's district, in Texas's fifteenth district. There's a few
Speaker 1: other ones that they could reach for. But that's basically it.
Speaker 1: That's basically where Republicans are on super defense this time
Speaker 1: in districts that they can lose. Now, where can they
Speaker 1: go on offense? Can Republicans pick up any Democrats seats?
Speaker 1: The answer is yes. There are two seats in South
Speaker 1: Texas Henry quear seat. He is the most conservative Democrat
Speaker 1: in Congress by a long shot. I think he actually
Speaker 1: votes a majority of time with Trump, or he did. Anyway,
Speaker 1: he was under multiple investigations and I believe he was
Speaker 1: indicted and for whatever reason, Trump pardoned him. This is
Speaker 1: a Democrat, by the way, who did not then switch parties.
Speaker 1: He's running for reelection. It is very strange. I don't
Speaker 1: know why the pardon ever happened, but anyway, Henry Quayer's seat.
Speaker 1: And then right next door or to a district and
Speaker 1: a half next door is Vincente Gonzales. That's Texas thirty
Speaker 1: fourth district. He's also up in a Trump back district.
Speaker 1: Over in Ohio, Marcy Captors, she's been in Congress longer
Speaker 1: than I've been alive. She's running again. Her district was
Speaker 1: changed and is much more Republican. That is a prime
Speaker 1: pickup seat opportunity in Ohio. In Washington State, you have
Speaker 1: Maria Perez's seat. That's the seat that Joe Kent ran
Speaker 1: for and loss. It was represented previously by Republicans. Trump
Speaker 1: won it. It's a tough it's a reach, but it's possible.
Speaker 1: And then the other two districts that Republicans can really
Speaker 1: reach for is over in Long Island in New York's
Speaker 1: third congressional district, the old George Santos seat. This is
Speaker 1: the seat that Trump won by four points a Republicans. MICHAELA.
Speaker 1: Petrie's running. He's very he ran last time. He came
Speaker 1: very close to beating defeating Tom Swase, the longtime incumbent.
Speaker 1: They have a chance. It's a Trump seat by a
Speaker 1: decent margin. This wasn't a seat that Trump barely won.
Speaker 1: So there and there's a big Jewish population as well,
Speaker 1: it's a big Asian population, so we'll see how the
Speaker 1: dynamics changed there. But that's definitely a prime pickup opportunity.
Speaker 1: And then the last one is Main's second congressional that's
Speaker 1: northern Maine. It is a Trump ten seat. Trump won
Speaker 1: it by ten points last time. The former governor, PAULA. Page,
Speaker 1: he is a wild man. You could I could do
Speaker 1: a whole episode on Polo Page. A wide, very interesting
Speaker 1: human being, but a wild man. He has never lost
Speaker 1: that district anytime he's ever run statewide. So he's running
Speaker 1: as a Republican. I think that's probably the biggest opportunity
Speaker 1: of Republicans have to pick up a seat anyway. That's
Speaker 1: the gamut, That's the entire map for you, right, so
Speaker 1: think about think about it. First of all, how few people,
Speaker 1: relatively a few people in this country will decide the
Speaker 1: Speaker of the House or presenta's race and who is
Speaker 1: the majority in Congress. It's probably less than ten million
Speaker 1: people live in a will vote for, will vote in
Speaker 1: favor of the congressman who will be who will make
Speaker 1: up the majority? Maybe twenty million. Maybe we see twenty
Speaker 1: million at most, right, because you think everyone who lives there,
Speaker 1: not everyone who votes. Everyone who votes in these places
Speaker 1: is probably ten million people will live there. Maybe twenty million.
Speaker 1: Not many, not many in a country of three hundred
Speaker 1: fifty million people. Really, we are a democracy that of
Speaker 1: if you're in the right zip code, you make a
Speaker 1: lot of big decisions. But that's pretty wild anyway. Those
Speaker 1: are the districts. That's the math. If Virginia, the Virginia
Speaker 1: lawsuit goes for Republican's way, if Florida goes Republican's way,
Speaker 1: and if the South three districts were at two hundred
Speaker 1: and nine seats, about there's fifteen seats to defend. There
Speaker 1: are maybe like seventeen seats will be generous, seventeen seats
Speaker 1: to defend, and there's so seven seats to go on
Speaker 1: the offense. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the House.
Speaker 1: It's not impossible to Republicans to get a majority. They
Speaker 1: need to win about nine to ten out of twenty
Speaker 1: two twenty three seats total twenty four seats. I mean,
Speaker 1: we're all playing with like, is this really a swing seat?
Speaker 1: Is this not really a swing seats. So I'm that's
Speaker 1: why my numbers are changing a little bit. But about
Speaker 1: ten seats to win out of twenty two twenty two,
Speaker 1: twenty three, that's less than half. It actually shocked me
Speaker 1: when I did this map because the conclusion that bygun
Speaker 1: conclusion is not only is this impossible, but it is
Speaker 1: going to be a twenty eighteen style wave. I don't
Speaker 1: think we're there. I don't think we're there. I just
Speaker 1: don't think the the maps have changed so much where
Speaker 1: we would either have to see a Hillary Clinton style
Speaker 1: or version of the Latina vote where we're losing Latinos
Speaker 1: by fifty points. Kind of don't see that, and we
Speaker 1: would have to see a map where there's just not
Speaker 1: as many swing seats. That's the that's the point. There's
Speaker 1: not that many swing seats left. We are in a
Speaker 1: country where people basically live in a seat that's gonna
Speaker 1: go one way or the other almost every time, with
Speaker 1: very very very few exceptions. Okay, next up, Ask Me Anything.
Speaker 1: Now it's time for the Ask Me Anything segment. If
Speaker 1: you want to part of the Ask Me Anything segment
Speaker 1: only Ryan at Numbers Game podcast dot com. That's Ryan
Speaker 1: at Numbers or a numbers gamepodcast dot com. Top of
Speaker 1: the show, I told you about a personal victory. I
Speaker 1: had a meal that I made because it was like
Speaker 1: it was restaurant quality, like it was really good. I
Speaker 1: made a pasta with broccoli sauce and a lemon chicken
Speaker 1: that was legitimately ten out of ten. I'm not even
Speaker 1: just bred like my guess is, jaws were on the floor.
Speaker 1: That's how good it is. I want to tell you
Speaker 1: about how to make it because it because the recipes
Speaker 1: that I get, Like I when I give you a recipe,
Speaker 1: I get so much positive feedback, and I want people
Speaker 1: to eat good. I mean, life is too short to
Speaker 1: have a bad meal. This is how you make it.
Speaker 1: It's very simple. Basically, you take broccoli and olive oil.
Speaker 1: You coat the whole bottom of a pan of pot
Speaker 1: and olive oil. Throw broccoli in, Throw garlic. Don't even
Speaker 1: cut the garlic nothing, don't drop the whole entire two
Speaker 1: cloves of garlic. Put some salt, whatever spices you want,
Speaker 1: a little, a little paprika, a little you know, a
Speaker 1: little spice. Cup of water and you steam it and
Speaker 1: you let it steam and you'll cook through the steaming.
Speaker 1: Then you take cheese like parmesan and some Romano's cheese,
Speaker 1: and you whip them together with an egg. So many
Speaker 1: Italian recipes do not call for a dairy that you
Speaker 1: think call for dairy, it's actually just cheese and eggs.
Speaker 1: You whip them together with an egg. Once the broccoli
Speaker 1: is cooked, you take the mash or whatebout's call it.
Speaker 1: The I think that mashes the food. And you mash
Speaker 1: the broccoli, and you mash the garlic, You throw the
Speaker 1: cheese in, you mix them together. All this time, you've
Speaker 1: boiled a pot of water with pasta in it. You
Speaker 1: spoon the pasta into the into the pot with the
Speaker 1: broccoli in it, and then you apply a cup or
Speaker 1: not a cup, a spoonful, a ladleful of winter from
Speaker 1: the pasta into the pot with a broccoli in it.
Speaker 1: You whip them all together. You coat it with more
Speaker 1: olive oil, a little more cheese, and that's basically it.
Speaker 1: You mix it together. It's not it's amazing, it's incredible.
Speaker 1: It's so good. It's pretty healthy for you. You have you know,
Speaker 1: vitamins and fiber from the broccoli. It's not super heavy.
Speaker 1: It's so delicious. And the chicken wait, this was incredible, guys.
Speaker 1: So cut the chicken in half, you tenderize it, you
Speaker 1: beat it with like a mallet or something like that.
Speaker 1: You can use a wine bottle if you got nothing
Speaker 1: else nothing I mean, if you got a wine bottle,
Speaker 1: use a wine bottle. Who knows life's better with some wine.
Speaker 1: You take, You throw two cups of butter in it.
Speaker 1: You bread the chicken lightly with either like flour or
Speaker 1: what I do, which is breadcrumbs, no egg on top,
Speaker 1: but nothing. You just bread it as well sweat. You
Speaker 1: throw it in with the melted butter. Cook them, and
Speaker 1: then you take like Alfredo sauce with lemon in it.
Speaker 1: You can make your own with heavy whipping cream, but
Speaker 1: who's got time for that? You got just buy buy
Speaker 1: Alfredo sauce with lemon in it. You coat that in
Speaker 1: and you put in a cut or not a cup
Speaker 1: half a cup of dry white wine. Together creates the
Speaker 1: most incredible marinate. You just flip them over, cook them,
Speaker 1: take them out, sprinkle the sauce that you made on top,
Speaker 1: the juice you made on top, put a little cilantro.
Speaker 1: That's it. That's all, guys. It was incredibly so good.
Speaker 1: Not my Grandma's recipe, not the grandma's meat ball recipe,
Speaker 1: but it was excellent, and some of you appreciate the
Speaker 1: food recipes, so I'm going to keep giving them as
Speaker 1: long as you appreciate them. Now it's time to go
Speaker 1: back to the politics. Let's talk about questions from asking
Speaker 1: me anything. First one comes from Brian. Brian writes, imagine
Speaker 1: a world which of Bill Clinton opposed both the NAFTA
Speaker 1: North American Free Trade Agreement and granting China permanent normal
Speaker 1: trade relations, effectively blocking their entry into the WTO. In
Speaker 1: this scenario, what does Americas electorate look like today? Do
Speaker 1: soccer moms and Nascar dads can't even evolve as political
Speaker 1: arc types? Does change narratives that propelled Obama to the
Speaker 1: White House still resonate? Does a Hillary Clinton campaign succeed
Speaker 1: without that specific policy baggage of her husband? Finally, would
Speaker 1: that political inversion between parties that Alton benefit Trump have
Speaker 1: ever taken place? Happy thirty ninth birthday, What an interesting question.
Speaker 1: It's a lot to chew on. Obviously, we don't enter WTO,
Speaker 1: we don't enter NAFTA, we don't have We will still
Speaker 1: lose some manufacturing jobs as we did before those two things,
Speaker 1: but we wouldn't see the huge plumb drop in manufacturing
Speaker 1: jobs that we saw during really the Bush administration because
Speaker 1: Bush made China a permanent member of the WTO likely.
Speaker 1: I mean, I can't speak to every one of those scenarios.
Speaker 1: I will say the one scenario that I would speak to,
Speaker 1: because remember Obama's change was really about Iraq and the
Speaker 1: financial crisis, not so much about the trade agreements. That
Speaker 1: was all kind of in the background. Hillary and Trump
Speaker 1: in that scenario, I would think Hillary would actually be
Speaker 1: Trump if we had if miss if Trump did not
Speaker 1: have the substantial loss of manufactory and the two decades
Speaker 1: of the opioid crisis or a decade and a half
Speaker 1: the opiad crisis, that fill that void for a lot
Speaker 1: of people. I don't know if he wins, I don't
Speaker 1: think he went Pennsylvania, Michigan, in Wisconsin. Those jobs would
Speaker 1: still be there, those people would still be blue collar workers.
Speaker 1: And yeah, I think I've fed a lot when Trump.
Speaker 1: I remember this so well. In twenty sixteen, Trump went
Speaker 1: to I have a speech in Michigan saying that he
Speaker 1: would tell the executives of the Ford Motor industry that
Speaker 1: if they moved their cars to China or Japan. He
Speaker 1: was going to put it on Mexico. He was going
Speaker 1: to put a tariff so strong on their business it
Speaker 1: would bankrupt them. And it was electricity in Michigan. So yeah,
Speaker 1: would would that? Would that? Yeah? I don't Without that,
Speaker 1: I don't know if he would win. I really don't.
Speaker 1: I think. Here's the thing, and I wrote this in
Speaker 1: my book. It's called They're not Listening. I actually have
Speaker 1: a copyright next to me. You don't have to buy
Speaker 1: it because it's out for years. I don't make any
Speaker 1: money off of it. I mean you can. It's interesting.
Speaker 1: You could listen to an audio tipe. I don't read it.
Speaker 1: You don't hear my nasally voice. The thing about Trump
Speaker 1: is the elite who hated him were the ones who
Speaker 1: created him. The elite who can't stand him were the
Speaker 1: media that gave him free advertising. And it was the
Speaker 1: political class like Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and George W.
Speaker 1: Bush who hurt the livelihoods of the American people to
Speaker 1: such a degree that they would vote for a reality
Speaker 1: show star somebody who Now it seems like, of course,
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, but eleven years ago absolutely not Yeah, they
Speaker 1: created him. So if they didn't create him, if they
Speaker 1: didn't do those things, the open borders, the endless wars, Iraq,
Speaker 1: open borders, mass immigration, NAFTA, China, WTO. Without those things,
Speaker 1: you don't get Donald Trump. You just don't. That's my opinion. Okay,
Speaker 1: next question is I think the first. This question goes
Speaker 1: from Michael by the way, he said, I really enjoy
Speaker 1: your podcast with Ann Coulter. I frequently hear that political
Speaker 1: violence is mostly right wing phenomenon. But I find this
Speaker 1: hard to believe, especially given the size and scope of
Speaker 1: the BLM and antifil rally since twenty twenty. How are
Speaker 1: they deriving these numbers? Do all instances of violence count
Speaker 1: the same? No, they do not. That's such a good question.
Speaker 1: I was on Laura Ingram show about this one time.
Speaker 1: So the way that the SPLC, which is the predominant group,
Speaker 1: I know KATO had their own numbers, but KATO is
Speaker 1: such a joke of an organization. SPLC is the one
Speaker 1: that everyone kind of reaches to for the official numbers
Speaker 1: on crime with political violence. The way that they do
Speaker 1: it is if you are associated with anything that they
Speaker 1: deem as right wing and you commit a crime at all.
Speaker 1: It is there for right wing political violence. So, for instance,
Speaker 1: I remember this very specifically. It was a case of
Speaker 1: a man from New Hampshire who was in a Nazi
Speaker 1: prison gang when he was in prison, gets out of
Speaker 1: prison and kills his stepbrother for calling the police on
Speaker 1: him for a different crime work. I think he shot
Speaker 1: a gun out of his car into a neighborhood like
Speaker 1: a stray bullet, didn't kill anybody, didn't urt anybody, but
Speaker 1: the brother called the police and then he killed a brother.
Speaker 1: There is no politics in that conversation at all. He
Speaker 1: was doing it for any political reason, but the fact
Speaker 1: that he belonged to a Nazi prison gang, and that
Speaker 1: is deemed as a right wing political organization. According to
Speaker 1: the SPLC, he committed a right wing targeted attack. No
Speaker 1: one from the BLM riots who committed a crime, or
Speaker 1: virtually no one who committed a crime, was ever counted
Speaker 1: as political violence. David Dorn, the former policeman seventy seven
Speaker 1: year old black policeman was murdered by BLM rioters was
Speaker 1: counted as BLM insided violence or left wing violence at all.
Speaker 1: They were like, Nope, doesn't count, doesn't count at all,
Speaker 1: if you went to a BLM rally and then broke
Speaker 1: a window, burned a building, beat somebody, murdered somebody. No,
Speaker 1: it does not count as left wing violence. If you
Speaker 1: belong to a gang in prison and that gang is white,
Speaker 1: and you commit another crime out of prison, as many
Speaker 1: former prisoners do, that is considered right wing political violence.
Speaker 1: That's how they calculated it as utter and total nonsense.
Speaker 1: That's why these organizations should not be trusted. These non profits,
Speaker 1: they also don't count. By the way, they don't count
Speaker 1: non homicidal crime. I remember twenty sixteen, I was in
Speaker 1: my late twenties. If I remember in Chicago and the
Speaker 1: Trump supporters were going to Chicago to see Trump speak
Speaker 1: and they were attacked. I remember where that woman was, like,
Speaker 1: I think it was in California. They threw eggs at her.
Speaker 1: Those are acts of political violence that they are not homicidal,
Speaker 1: but they are not counted as left wing political violence.
Speaker 1: So also, by the way, you know who's not count
Speaker 1: as left wing political violence. Luigi yep, Luigi Mangione is
Speaker 1: not considered left wing political violence because he doesn't have
Speaker 1: a quote ideology. Okay, you also wrote, by the way,
Speaker 1: you email the NFL draft pick. I know nothing about sports,
Speaker 1: so I can't even read that question because I'm going
Speaker 1: to sound like a moron. Last question comes from Trevor.
Speaker 1: He writes, I hope you had a great birthday. I did,
Speaker 1: Thank you. Trevor, He says, do you think it'd be
Speaker 1: a great good idea to amend the Constitution so that
Speaker 1: any effort to increase or expand immigration must be passed
Speaker 1: by a majority of voters in a nationwide ballot referendum.
Speaker 1: I understand that the founding fathers weren't huge fans of
Speaker 1: direct democracy, but I think that who lives here and
Speaker 1: who votes here is too important that Americans should get
Speaker 1: a say. Also, the form more population in the US
Speaker 1: is now, it's May fifteen to sixty percent of the
Speaker 1: total population. Do you think that we should set caps
Speaker 1: on what the percentage of the US population forum born
Speaker 1: should be? If he yes, which the percentage be? Those
Speaker 1: are very smart questions. Let's start with the referendum first. No,
Speaker 1: I don't think of that showing for a referendum, because
Speaker 1: there are just times when there is you know, unforeseen
Speaker 1: instances where immigration flows up. Let's say Canada is invaded.
Speaker 1: I'm just making up a making a random thing. But
Speaker 1: we have to take in refugees from Canada and mass
Speaker 1: immigration is expanded, or we have a situation where there
Speaker 1: is something we need a group of people. We can't
Speaker 1: wait for a national referendum. National referendums in a nation
Speaker 1: like ours, I don't think really work. It's too big,
Speaker 1: it's too diverse. They work sometimes in places like Leechenstein
Speaker 1: or Switzerland, and even when they are national referendums, like
Speaker 1: in Switzerland, they had one on capping immigration, and what
Speaker 1: happened was after the people voted for it, it then
Speaker 1: went on to it was watered down when it was applied,
Speaker 1: so they didn't even get where they wanted. So no,
Speaker 1: no referendum. Should there be a cap on the form
Speaker 1: on one population, Yes, there should. I would say it
Speaker 1: should never exceed Well, I would say it should never
Speaker 1: exceed fifteen percent, but we're already over that, so fifteen
Speaker 1: percent we got to work our way down. Anyway. I
Speaker 1: have more great stuff coming up next. On Friday's episode,
Speaker 1: new birth data once again showing Trump's immigration policies are working.
Speaker 1: It is happening. We are seeing declines of immigration. We
Speaker 1: have that and so much more. If you like this podcast,
Speaker 1: please like and subscribe on the iHeartRadio app, Apple podcast
Speaker 1: where every tip of this podcast, or if you're watching
Speaker 1: on YouTube, press subscribe and click the ball so you
Speaker 1: don't miss any episodes. I appreciate you all. Have a
Speaker 1: great Wednesday. Everybody,