WEBVTT - It's a Numbers Game: The Numbers Behind the GOP’s 2026 Midterm Comeback Strategy 0:00:01.520 --> 0:00:04.080 Welcome back to It's the Numbers Game with Ryan Gridowski. 0:00:04.559 --> 0:00:07.680 I want to start by saying two things. One, give 0:00:07.760 --> 0:00:12.640 a moment of a moment to honor the great memory 0:00:12.680 --> 0:00:17.960 of Spirit Airline. And the thousands of Instagram reels that 0:00:18.079 --> 0:00:22.279 filled my page of people throwing luggage out the window 0:00:22.640 --> 0:00:26.360 or you know, getting into fistfights. They were really great entertainment. Also, 0:00:26.640 --> 0:00:29.040 I've talked a lot of this podcasts of personal victories. 0:00:30.000 --> 0:00:35.000 I made a meal the other day that was phenomenal. 0:00:35.120 --> 0:00:36.680 I'm going to talk about it during the Ask Me 0:00:36.720 --> 0:00:38.519 Anything segment because I know most people are heard for 0:00:38.600 --> 0:00:42.519 politics and not for any of my big bag of bs. 0:00:42.680 --> 0:00:45.479 But this was phenomenal, and some people do like my 0:00:45.880 --> 0:00:48.440 Italian recipes, my Italian food. I'm going to give you 0:00:48.479 --> 0:00:50.640 guys that at the end of the episode. Okay, let's 0:00:50.680 --> 0:00:55.200 get into the numbers of how Republicans can win the 0:00:55.240 --> 0:00:58.800 majority in the House of Representatives in November. I know 0:00:59.200 --> 0:01:02.640 everyone's already assumed it's a bygone conclusion. It's too far fetched. 0:01:02.680 --> 0:01:04.880 We can't win. It's going to be a twenty eighteen blowout. 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:08.400 I've been breaking down the numbers and they're not as 0:01:08.520 --> 0:01:10.440 bad as people think. There are, there are a lot 0:01:10.440 --> 0:01:12.720 of ifs, there's a lot that could change, and a 0:01:12.760 --> 0:01:14.840 lot of things do change from now until election day. 0:01:14.959 --> 0:01:17.920 But it's not as big a reach as even I 0:01:18.000 --> 0:01:21.600 thought it was. So let's first get into the redistricting fight, 0:01:21.640 --> 0:01:24.800 because a lot is centered on the redistricting fight of 0:01:24.840 --> 0:01:27.440 what's going on with these new congressional districts. Since the 0:01:27.480 --> 0:01:31.160 Supreme Court ruled against race based redistricting, and remember the 0:01:31.200 --> 0:01:35.600 DOJ said they're going to enforce lawsuits against race based redistricting, 0:01:35.880 --> 0:01:38.880 there's been a lot of movements, mostly in the Southern states, 0:01:38.959 --> 0:01:42.920 ahead of the November election. Now there's a big problem 0:01:43.040 --> 0:01:44.840 in the sense that there's time. And this is what 0:01:44.920 --> 0:01:48.760 I heard in DC circles was that the liberal justices 0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:52.200 were taking such a long time to deliberate to give 0:01:52.320 --> 0:01:56.120 their opinions on the case because they wanted to hold 0:01:56.120 --> 0:01:58.880 it up as long as possible to give Republican states 0:01:58.880 --> 0:02:01.840 as little time as pots to redistrict ahead of the midterms. 0:02:02.600 --> 0:02:05.280 And this is, by the way, I'm not like breaking news. 0:02:05.320 --> 0:02:09.040 This was told wildly throughout Washington, d C. Now, the 0:02:09.120 --> 0:02:13.600 crazy thing is going into this. Almost all the Southern 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:17.560 states have governors who cannot run for reelection right. Governors 0:02:17.560 --> 0:02:21.720 in Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina, they're all set 0:02:21.760 --> 0:02:25.600 to retire this year, so part of them are looking 0:02:25.680 --> 0:02:29.960 at this as I'm going to build my legacy that 0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:32.799 I'm for my idea of fairness. I'm going to get 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:35.320 a nice up in the New York Times when I die, 0:02:35.360 --> 0:02:38.120 the obituary from established media are going to say I 0:02:38.160 --> 0:02:42.360 stood up for black majority districts, or they're saying my 0:02:42.520 --> 0:02:46.040 legacy will be the I delivered Republicans more congressional districts. 0:02:46.080 --> 0:02:49.080 It's a very unusual thing because there's not as much 0:02:49.520 --> 0:02:52.639 political pressure that can be applied to a governor who 0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:55.680 is retiring as the one who needs to run for 0:02:55.760 --> 0:02:59.080 reelection in the future. And we're seeing this in this redistricting, 0:02:59.400 --> 0:03:02.760 you know, escape what's going on right now. First of all, 0:03:02.880 --> 0:03:04.480 let's look with the states that are not redistioncing that 0:03:04.560 --> 0:03:07.960 said off the top, I'm not redistricting Georgia being number one, 0:03:08.000 --> 0:03:12.160 Georgia could redistrict one to two seats in Republicans favor 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:15.959 predominantly one the one in South Georgia for sure, and 0:03:16.080 --> 0:03:19.360 Brian Kemp has said no obviously Brian Kemp. Anyone who 0:03:19.400 --> 0:03:21.480 follows and who knows Brian Kemp is not a big 0:03:21.520 --> 0:03:23.360 fan of Donald Trump. Stalin Trump's not a big fan 0:03:23.440 --> 0:03:26.600 of Brian Kemp. Trump tried to primary Camp. Kemp obviously 0:03:26.600 --> 0:03:29.920 came out as a big victor, but there is no 0:03:30.040 --> 0:03:31.560 love lost between the two of them. But he has 0:03:31.560 --> 0:03:34.240 said flat out I'm not redistricting, so take those seats. 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:36.680 That seats are two seats off the table. Others state 0:03:36.720 --> 0:03:39.920 that's not redistrict is South Carolina. South Carolina, they have 0:03:40.160 --> 0:03:44.160 one predominantly black district which is which is where Jim 0:03:44.280 --> 0:03:46.640 Clyburn is the representative. Now, for those who are know, 0:03:46.760 --> 0:03:49.760 Jim Clyburn was the head of was in Democratic leadership 0:03:49.800 --> 0:03:52.840 for a long time. Whenever like Nancy Pelosis to take 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:56.680 those pictures with like house Democratic leadership, he was the older, 0:03:56.960 --> 0:04:00.000 bald black gentleman next to Nancy Pelosi all the time. 0:04:00.520 --> 0:04:03.760 He is a powerhouse in South Carolina. He is the 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:08.720 Democratic Party of South Carolina and he most famously is 0:04:08.760 --> 0:04:11.960 the reason that Joe Biden won the nomination in twenty twenty. 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:16.320 He was that he changed the trajectory of Biden's losing 0:04:16.360 --> 0:04:21.280 campaign because of his endorsement, Biden won South Carolina, then 0:04:21.320 --> 0:04:23.760 he won more southern states. The black vote came for him, 0:04:23.800 --> 0:04:26.200 and that's after he got obliterated in Iowa and New 0:04:26.200 --> 0:04:28.680 Hampshire and Nevada, and people were like, well, it's kind 0:04:28.720 --> 0:04:33.359 of over for Joe. Clyburn has immense political power, and 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:36.080 even in the Democratic Party, even with Nancy Pelosi retiring 0:04:36.080 --> 0:04:37.760 and all the rest of them kind of leaving, he 0:04:37.880 --> 0:04:40.080 still wields a lot of power and a lot of 0:04:40.480 --> 0:04:42.800 power for the state. And I think maybe a calculation 0:04:42.839 --> 0:04:45.599 could be that they want him there in Congress in 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:47.640 case they need money for the state and the Democrats 0:04:47.680 --> 0:04:51.320 of the House or whatnot. Anyway, so Henry McMasters, according 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:53.680 to the Post Courier, says he is not redistracting, and 0:04:53.720 --> 0:04:55.800 I kind of believe that that's where they, like, let's 0:04:55.800 --> 0:04:59.200 talk about the places that are redistriing, pending some lawsuits. 0:04:59.200 --> 0:05:02.920 First of Tennessee, I'm actually surprised Tennessee only has one 0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:06.279 Democrat district, one black majority district. It is the district 0:05:06.320 --> 0:05:08.880 in Memphis. If you look at a map of Tennessee, right, 0:05:09.120 --> 0:05:12.880 it all looks red, ruby, red. There's one little, tiny 0:05:12.960 --> 0:05:17.440 little spot that is where there's the democratic district. It's 0:05:17.520 --> 0:05:19.680 kind of even hard to redistrict because it's really in 0:05:19.760 --> 0:05:24.040 the corner and it's so democratic. But the governor, Governor 0:05:24.120 --> 0:05:26.880 Lee has said that he is going to push forward 0:05:26.920 --> 0:05:29.320 arm redistricting, and not only it's going to be redistricting, 0:05:29.320 --> 0:05:33.680 they're going to overturn a fifty year law that allows 0:05:33.760 --> 0:05:36.760 them to do mid decade redistricting. It was illegal in 0:05:37.360 --> 0:05:40.080 Tennessee like it's illegal in New Jersey and many other places. 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:45.080 So they're going to overturn this law and once again 0:05:45.160 --> 0:05:47.640 do that. They're going to take the Memphis district and 0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:50.400 split it into three that will give Republicans a new 0:05:50.440 --> 0:05:55.360 seat out of Tennessee. The congressman who's been there for sometimes, 0:05:55.400 --> 0:05:59.880 Steve Cohen, he represents Tennessee. He has basically said that 0:06:00.200 --> 0:06:01.840 this is gonna end up in litigation. They're going to 0:06:01.880 --> 0:06:05.839 fight this in litigation. But whether or not they win 0:06:05.960 --> 0:06:08.560 this in twenty twenty six, they're losing the seat in 0:06:08.600 --> 0:06:10.960 twenty twenty eight. He has acknowledged that this seat is gone. 0:06:11.000 --> 0:06:13.479 It will be a Republican seat come twenty twenty eight, 0:06:14.000 --> 0:06:17.720 and Tennessee's gonna get another seat, probably by twenty thirty two, 0:06:17.760 --> 0:06:20.600 it's very likely to So Tennessee. All these people moving 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:23.279 to it, they're very quickly adding seats, and they can. 0:06:23.600 --> 0:06:26.360 East Tennessee is so Republican that if they push keep 0:06:26.360 --> 0:06:30.400 putting East Tennessee further central, they'll have enough for Publican 0:06:30.480 --> 0:06:32.240 votes to make sure that they can continue to make 0:06:32.279 --> 0:06:34.960 the all those seats Republican. So Tennessee is the one 0:06:34.960 --> 0:06:39.480 for Republicans, going one seat for Republican. Next over is Alabama. Okay, 0:06:39.560 --> 0:06:43.560 this state is a mess. It is a mess. It 0:06:43.640 --> 0:06:46.600 is you have no I've been hearing from stories from 0:06:46.600 --> 0:06:51.440 people constantly. So initially Governor k Ivy, she's allegedly, well, 0:06:51.440 --> 0:06:53.200 she's not allegedly a very old woman, but she's an 0:06:53.240 --> 0:06:55.520 older lady and older, a woman of a certain age 0:06:56.360 --> 0:06:59.840 who allegedly likes the drink in the middle of the day. 0:07:00.520 --> 0:07:03.000 And she did not want any redistricting. She was saying 0:07:03.080 --> 0:07:06.000 flat out, I'm not redistricting, I'm not doing anything. And 0:07:06.080 --> 0:07:09.360 the leader of the state Senate in Alabama was a 0:07:09.520 --> 0:07:13.760 longtime Democrat who recently fairly recently became a Republican, so 0:07:14.560 --> 0:07:18.200 he's not even gung ho about it either, And she 0:07:18.240 --> 0:07:21.000 said I'm not redistricting period. Well, she blinked. She said, 0:07:21.000 --> 0:07:23.800 now we're going to redistrict. A big question is to 0:07:23.840 --> 0:07:28.480 do they do redistrict one seat or two, because they're 0:07:28.560 --> 0:07:30.640 saying what I'm hearing is is that she wants to 0:07:30.680 --> 0:07:34.000 go back to the old map, the map from before 0:07:34.040 --> 0:07:38.000 the lawsuit, which is one democratic seat. However, it's a 0:07:38.000 --> 0:07:42.840 democratic seat that basically captures almost the entire large portion 0:07:42.880 --> 0:07:45.920 of the black vote in Alabama. Well, you can't do 0:07:46.040 --> 0:07:49.360 that because we're against race based redistricting. So how do 0:07:49.440 --> 0:07:51.840 you have she say, Now, they could make a democratic 0:07:51.920 --> 0:07:54.840 seat if they made like Birmingham and the surrounding areas, 0:07:54.840 --> 0:07:57.200 And in that case, it's a democratic seat, but it's 0:07:57.200 --> 0:08:00.320 not that democratic. It's really a swing seat. They can 0:08:00.320 --> 0:08:02.560 make that a Republican seat, but a swing Republican seat 0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:04.920 as well. There's other things to do besides make it 0:08:04.960 --> 0:08:08.040 a full blown Republican seat. But if we can't do 0:08:08.360 --> 0:08:13.360 race based redistricting, I don't know how she does the 0:08:13.440 --> 0:08:15.880 old map that she says she's going to do. There's 0:08:15.920 --> 0:08:20.120 this really big push on the part of Republicans in 0:08:20.160 --> 0:08:24.120 Alabama to protect Democrat Terry Sewell's district. Terry Sewell is 0:08:24.120 --> 0:08:26.760 not a moderate Democrat in any sense. She votes as 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:29.640 left as Bernie Sanders does. I mean, it's one for 0:08:29.720 --> 0:08:31.840 the other. It's, you know, instead of a Jewish guy 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:34.680 from Vermont, it's a black woman from Alabama. They vote 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:38.760 exactly the same. The need to protect her or the 0:08:38.800 --> 0:08:41.800 fight to protect her is what's going on in Alabama 0:08:41.960 --> 0:08:45.679 right now. We'll see how that kind of plays out. 0:08:45.960 --> 0:08:49.680 The person who's pushing hardest for this seven zero map. 0:08:49.720 --> 0:08:53.760 We're all republic there's all Republican seats is Senator Tommy Tupperville. 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:56.280 He is very likely going to be the next governor. 0:08:56.320 --> 0:09:01.880 He's essentially the nominee now and and it's Alabama, so 0:09:01.920 --> 0:09:05.240 he'll he'll be He's very very very likely going to 0:09:05.240 --> 0:09:07.520 be the next governor. He wants a seven o map. 0:09:07.800 --> 0:09:10.320 He wants this very badly. He's been lobbing for it, 0:09:10.360 --> 0:09:14.520 he's been fighting for it. We'll see if he gets 0:09:14.559 --> 0:09:16.600 his way or if k Ivy gets her way. It's 0:09:16.679 --> 0:09:20.640 very much but even though they're both people of a 0:09:20.679 --> 0:09:23.480 certain age, it's very much a generational fight in the 0:09:23.880 --> 0:09:26.480 in the mindset of who they are as Republicans versus 0:09:26.520 --> 0:09:28.800 in the ages of who they are as Republicans, but 0:09:28.880 --> 0:09:32.440 Tuberville has been a one man machine wrecking ball. And 0:09:32.600 --> 0:09:34.840 if they get the seven zero map where it's all 0:09:34.880 --> 0:09:39.120 seven districts, a big credit goes to Tommy Tupperville more than 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:42.079 basically any It was Marshall Blackburn was very for the 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:45.080 Tennessee See, but Blackburn and Tuberville have been the two 0:09:45.080 --> 0:09:50.080 senators really fighting for redistricting their state's map. Over in Mississippi, 0:09:50.120 --> 0:09:52.440 Governor Tate Reeves he is not of a reale or 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:56.040 retirement this year, but Governor Tate Reeves has said off 0:09:56.040 --> 0:09:58.079 the bat they are redistricting that seat, so that will 0:09:58.120 --> 0:10:00.400 be Benny Thomas's seat, will be a republic can see, 0:10:00.480 --> 0:10:04.360 that will be an extra Republican seat for Republicans or 0:10:04.440 --> 0:10:07.680 extra seat for Republicans out of Mississippi, and that leaves 0:10:07.720 --> 0:10:13.800 us with Louisiana. The Louisiana has two Democratic seats, one 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:16.560 based out of predominantly New Orleans and one out of 0:10:16.600 --> 0:10:19.640 Baton Rouge. So let me tell you guys a little story. 0:10:19.679 --> 0:10:21.840 This is not that long ago. It was like six 0:10:21.920 --> 0:10:24.000 or seven years ago when the lawsuit came out where 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:27.880 they had to draw a second Democratic seat. I there's 0:10:27.920 --> 0:10:30.560 a man in Louisiana. He was a congressman. His name 0:10:30.760 --> 0:10:35.960 is Garrett Graves. I don't know who's cereal this man 0:10:36.040 --> 0:10:39.480 peed in, but for whatever reason, he is the most 0:10:39.520 --> 0:10:44.160 Hayden man in Louisiana. He's a Republican and they purposely 0:10:44.559 --> 0:10:47.960 drew his house into this new Democratic district. They did 0:10:48.000 --> 0:10:51.200 not want him having a seat in Congress. They were like, 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:54.200 we're getting rid of this guy, and that's that. Well, 0:10:54.240 --> 0:10:58.560 now they're talking about redistricting. They're having a conversation about giving, 0:10:58.800 --> 0:11:02.160 you know, either either all Republican seats or one Democratic seat. 0:11:02.720 --> 0:11:06.400 They what I'm hearing this is alleged. Allegedly they do 0:11:06.559 --> 0:11:09.200 not want to give all Republican seats because they don't 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:13.800 even want the possibility of Garrett Graves running for his 0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:17.480 old seat to get What did this man do that 0:11:17.679 --> 0:11:22.719 everyone can't stand him. It's it's quite bizarre. So if 0:11:22.760 --> 0:11:25.920 they did the old map, which basically breaks up the 0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:29.199 Baton Rouge district into several different different districts, it opens 0:11:29.280 --> 0:11:34.040 up a seat in central to northern Louisiana. The population 0:11:34.120 --> 0:11:38.440 center where population is growing, however, is in southeast Louisiana. 0:11:38.480 --> 0:11:40.760 It's the way Saint Tammany Parish and Orleans Parish and 0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:45.959 Jefferson Parish. They are they want they're going to break 0:11:46.040 --> 0:11:48.800 up the New Orleans District, which is much harder to 0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:51.199 break up really because it's much more it's much more democratic. 0:11:51.440 --> 0:11:54.559 They're going to break up the New Orleans District and 0:11:54.640 --> 0:11:58.480 make another Republican district, more in the south, more in 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:03.240 the east, away from Garret Graves's house. That's what I'm hearing. 0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:07.360 That's how desperately they want to prevent this man from 0:12:07.760 --> 0:12:11.080 being able to run for office again once again. Don't 0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:13.760 know who we pissed off, but he pissed somebody up 0:12:14.000 --> 0:12:16.320 royally that this is like an eight year long feud. 0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:20.240 Louisiana can get messy. It really can. Having lived there 0:12:20.280 --> 0:12:23.960 now for a bit, Uh, it's he can get really messy. 0:12:24.240 --> 0:12:26.160 It would be hilarious though. If I end up in 0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:29.000 a seat that's like a vacant Republican seat, I will 0:12:29.000 --> 0:12:31.000 get calls immediately saying, hey, just do it for fun 0:12:31.080 --> 0:12:32.800 run for office. I will not do it, but it 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:35.719 will be funny. Okay. So if you add all those 0:12:35.760 --> 0:12:39.960 hes together that, depending on what Alabama does, that creates 0:12:40.160 --> 0:12:45.000 four or five new Republican districts. Now, there is also 0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:47.960 the two core cases that we're looking at that will 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:50.679 also decide this, the first being in Virginia and the 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:54.120 second being in Florida. Let's srob with Florida first. In Florida, 0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:59.480 Ronda Santa's redistricted his map, creating four new Republican majority districts, 0:13:00.240 --> 0:13:03.680 districts that Trump won anyway by a good margin. While 0:13:03.760 --> 0:13:05.880 all those maps are in the middle of a new 0:13:05.960 --> 0:13:09.240 lawsuit by Mark Elias. He's a Democratic lawyer. He's a 0:13:09.280 --> 0:13:14.079 pretty awful person. Constantly tries to make bluestates, redistrict Republicans 0:13:14.120 --> 0:13:17.600 out of existence. Says he fights for democracy, but he 0:13:17.960 --> 0:13:21.280 works really hard and making sure voters, depending on how 0:13:21.280 --> 0:13:24.640 they vote, don't get any say, and who their congressman is, 0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:26.760 make sure they're all democratic seats. He tried to get 0:13:26.800 --> 0:13:29.040 rid of the stadn Island seat put into Manhattan. He's 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:34.360 awful anyway, He is suing the He is suing Florida, 0:13:34.480 --> 0:13:36.760 and because the claim that he is saying is if 0:13:36.840 --> 0:13:40.440 flies in the face of Florida's Fair District's Amendment, which 0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:43.520 was passed in twenty ten. The amendment says it's in 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:47.640 the Florida constitution maps cannot be drawn to favor an 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:54.280 incumbent or a political party. DeSantis are saying that that 0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:57.880 they're not but there because they're compact maps. We'll see 0:13:57.880 --> 0:13:59.760 how that goes. I mean, it seems like markle Lies 0:13:59.800 --> 0:14:01.520 has a case to be made. We'll see how the 0:14:01.559 --> 0:14:03.360 court does it. It is going to I think a 0:14:03.400 --> 0:14:06.400 Republican judge at first. I could see it's working its 0:14:06.400 --> 0:14:08.320 way up to the Florida Supreme Court, which is very 0:14:08.360 --> 0:14:11.760 Republican as well. But that will be an interesting question 0:14:11.840 --> 0:14:14.520 of whether Mark Elias wins and if if he loses, 0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:17.720 those are foremost he's going to Republicans. The more interesting 0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:21.760 case is the one in Virginia over their referendum. Okay, 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:26.320 I'm going to read court documents to you. Per court documents, 0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:29.400 Virginia Democrats advanced the proposal during the twenty twenty four 0:14:29.480 --> 0:14:34.240 special session of the general election. However, there are strict 0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:36.760 rules as to what kind of legislation can be considered 0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:41.320 during these types of sessions. Democratocrats reportedly violated those rules. 0:14:41.400 --> 0:14:44.680 As results, any action has taking place. It taking place 0:14:44.680 --> 0:14:48.560 to advance the plan would be deemed illegal. That is 0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:50.720 what the court case is saying. The court case is 0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:55.760 saying there are certain time restrictions on how this referendum 0:14:55.840 --> 0:14:59.240 could have gone forward. In Virginia. Democrats broke the law 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:02.120 when they put far Or this ballot initiative that passed 0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:05.520 by three points. So so far it's made its way 0:15:05.560 --> 0:15:10.000 to the Virginia Supreme Court. The Virginia Supreme Court has 0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:14.800 not certified this election results despite it being a week 0:15:14.960 --> 0:15:19.200 now and as of Friday, they were supposed to decide 0:15:19.200 --> 0:15:20.760 by Priory, they had not decided yet. As of the 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:23.560 according's podcast, they have not decided. And according to Dan 0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:26.080 Turntime from The Huddle, he's been on this podcast before, 0:15:26.160 --> 0:15:29.680 loved Dan Turntime, He's a longtime democratic strategist. He said 0:15:29.720 --> 0:15:34.680 that there is growing anxiety among Democrats Virginia Democrats and 0:15:34.840 --> 0:15:40.720 fights kind of happening behind the scenes because Spamberger initially 0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:43.800 told the legislator, we can't do this, it is not legal, 0:15:43.920 --> 0:15:47.480 and she was kind of strong armed into this position. 0:15:48.120 --> 0:15:52.120 And her approval rating. I've done multiple episodes. Her prooting 0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:56.119 is tanking because of this. Her provoting is falling apart 0:15:56.280 --> 0:15:59.360 because of this. So he says he gives it less 0:15:59.400 --> 0:16:02.760 than a fifth DP percent chance that they certify this election. 0:16:03.400 --> 0:16:06.760 If that happens, used blowback to Spamburger, usable like to 0:16:06.800 --> 0:16:09.960 Democrats who spend sixty five million dollars sixty six million 0:16:09.960 --> 0:16:13.840 dollars on this redistrict effort that went nowhere, and the 0:16:13.840 --> 0:16:17.440 Octagerian Speaker of the House, who's completely delusional at this point. 0:16:18.240 --> 0:16:21.720 But if that happens, that would give Republicans a chance 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:26.040 at another four seats, So fourig in Virginia, four in Florida, 0:16:26.120 --> 0:16:30.120 and four to five in the Deep South. Thirteen seats total. 0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:33.400 That's a lot of ifs. I want to reminder that's 0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:36.240 a lot of if if if so. Nothing is set 0:16:36.280 --> 0:16:38.800 in stone, but those are the initial things that we 0:16:38.880 --> 0:16:42.360 need to track and look forward to in order to 0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:45.080 see what what the map actually looks like. Do Republicans 0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:48.600 really have this chance? If all three of those things happen, 0:16:49.280 --> 0:16:52.280 Republicans will start out with about two hundred and ten 0:16:52.520 --> 0:16:55.240 seats in Congress, two hundred and nine, two hundred and ten, 0:16:55.240 --> 0:16:57.160 two hundred eight. It'sing like that, depending on what you 0:16:57.240 --> 0:16:59.080 say is a tossup seat. It's a little nuanced, but 0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:01.360 between two undred eight to two hundred and ten seats, 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:04.960 they only need another ten at most to win the majority. 0:17:05.520 --> 0:17:07.440 How do they do that? How do they win the majority? 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:11.359 We'll get back into that coming up next. As I 0:17:11.400 --> 0:17:14.919 said before, if Republicans manage the reditioning wins in the 0:17:14.960 --> 0:17:17.720 Deep South in the lawsuit in Virginia and the lawsuit 0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:20.840 in Florida, they start off this map with about two 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:23.359 hundred and nine to two hundred and ten House seats, 0:17:23.400 --> 0:17:27.360 They need two hundred and eighteen to win the majority, right, 0:17:27.480 --> 0:17:29.600 eight to ten more depending on what you call a 0:17:29.640 --> 0:17:33.040 swing district. How do they do that? Where are those 0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:35.159 eight seats? Right? That's where we want to look at. 0:17:35.160 --> 0:17:37.800 Where is the eight seats to create the majority? All right, 0:17:39.440 --> 0:17:41.159 let's first go into the seats that they're going to 0:17:41.240 --> 0:17:43.240 defend in the House represented Where are they going to 0:17:43.320 --> 0:17:47.320 gun to take out seats, especially that Kamala Harris won 0:17:47.400 --> 0:17:51.280 but or Republican represents them in Congress? The first being 0:17:51.600 --> 0:17:55.000 Mike Lawler seat in New York seventeen. That's the Rockland 0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:57.600 County seat. His seat will be very dependent on how 0:17:57.640 --> 0:18:00.520 the Orthodox Jewish vote. The other seat is saving his 0:18:00.600 --> 0:18:03.200 first congressional district, that's Bucks County and a little bit 0:18:03.320 --> 0:18:07.200 north of Bucks a little bit of the Philadelphia suburb Areia. 0:18:07.760 --> 0:18:11.200 Fitzpatrick is the most liberal member of the Congress by 0:18:11.359 --> 0:18:16.080 a long shot, but he is a fundraising machine and 0:18:16.119 --> 0:18:18.440 he's very popular in his seat. I actually don't even 0:18:18.440 --> 0:18:20.160 have his seat as a toss. I think his seat 0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:23.439 is actually probably lean Republican, despite Kamala Harris having won it. 0:18:24.480 --> 0:18:27.800 That's the two that are the peak, you know, Preak 0:18:28.000 --> 0:18:31.439 targets for the for the Democrats that Republicans need to defend. 0:18:31.720 --> 0:18:34.240 And they both have kind of special conditions. Lawler Very 0:18:34.680 --> 0:18:37.880 has a very orthodox Jewish sheet. Fitzpatrick, he's a very 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:41.119 liberal Republican, but in a seat that he has a 0:18:41.160 --> 0:18:43.600 lot of money and he's personally very popular. He only 0:18:43.640 --> 0:18:45.880 votes with Republicans like fifty five percent of the time, 0:18:45.920 --> 0:18:48.440 so he's considered an independent. So there's seats in the northeast. 0:18:48.440 --> 0:18:52.360 There's Scott Perry. He represents Harrisburg in Pennsylvania ten. It's Harrisburg, 0:18:52.440 --> 0:18:55.520 it's surrounding areas. Perry is a very conservative congressman in 0:18:55.560 --> 0:18:57.600 a district that's moving to the left very quickly as 0:18:57.680 --> 0:19:00.320 more people from Maryland and New Jersey and Philadelphia move 0:19:00.359 --> 0:19:03.040 to that area of the state. Then there's two other districts, 0:19:03.080 --> 0:19:07.480 Pennsylvania eight Rob Brushman, and then there's Pennsylvania seven, Ryan McKenzie. 0:19:07.880 --> 0:19:10.640 Those are the two northeast Pennsylvania seats. They're both freshmen. 0:19:10.720 --> 0:19:13.560 It will be a tough battle to fight. And right 0:19:13.640 --> 0:19:17.120 over the river is Tom Kean over in New Jersey seven. 0:19:17.160 --> 0:19:19.800 So those is like, that's the biggest compact of swing 0:19:19.840 --> 0:19:22.720 areas that all touch each other, those two in Pennsylvania 0:19:22.800 --> 0:19:24.640 and the one in New Jersey, and then a little 0:19:24.640 --> 0:19:28.159 further away is Pennsylvania ten. Republicans would have to defend 0:19:28.160 --> 0:19:30.760 those seats. But that's five right there. Those are five 0:19:30.800 --> 0:19:33.879 seats right there that Republicans would need to defend. And 0:19:33.920 --> 0:19:35.960 if you can they defend them, if they can win them, 0:19:36.240 --> 0:19:38.920 that takes the pressure immediately off the rest of the map. 0:19:39.400 --> 0:19:42.399 Now in the southeast, almost all the seats are safe 0:19:42.400 --> 0:19:47.320 Republican except for Chuck Edwards from North Carolina. You're like, 0:19:47.320 --> 0:19:53.240 who is Chuck Edwards. Chuck Edwards represents the Mountains of Appalachia. 0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:56.119 He is He took over from Madison Cawthorne when Madison 0:19:56.160 --> 0:20:00.359 Cawthorne had all his scandals. Well, Chuck Edwards now running 0:20:00.359 --> 0:20:03.000 for reelection, His first reelection has tons of scandals. He 0:20:03.119 --> 0:20:07.760 allegedly is under ethical investigation for allegedly having an affair 0:20:07.840 --> 0:20:11.960 with a staffer and, according to Axios, made multiple female 0:20:11.960 --> 0:20:15.600 staffers very uncomfortable giving them handwritten notes. One of the 0:20:15.720 --> 0:20:19.000 letters said that the staffer wrote a had quote written 0:20:19.000 --> 0:20:26.160 a complex chapter to his heart. That is just so stupid. Anyway, 0:20:26.400 --> 0:20:29.200 he like, you know, this is such a weird congress 0:20:29.200 --> 0:20:32.840 where you have everyone from Corey Mills to Eric Slowell. 0:20:32.920 --> 0:20:35.040 Everyone's no one keep it in their pants, keep it 0:20:35.040 --> 0:20:37.240 in your pants, and run for reelection. All right. He 0:20:37.280 --> 0:20:39.560 is going to have issues because of his personal stuff 0:20:39.600 --> 0:20:43.200 going on, but otherwise it is a pretty likely Republican seat. 0:20:43.400 --> 0:20:45.720 He's going to be controversial. Whoever thought that the man 0:20:45.800 --> 0:20:49.280 following Madison Catherine would be more controversial. But he's more 0:20:49.320 --> 0:20:53.840 controversial if the Virginia lawsuit. By the way, also with 0:20:53.880 --> 0:20:56.480 the Republicans win that Jen Kiggins and Pennsylvania, it's sort 0:20:56.520 --> 0:20:59.400 in Virginia. Second, that's the Virginia Beach district that will 0:20:59.440 --> 0:21:02.600 also be very competitive. Okay, but that's how you That's 0:21:02.640 --> 0:21:06.640 the entire southeast over in the Midwest, there are five seats, 0:21:06.680 --> 0:21:09.320 two in Michigan, one in Wisconsin and two in Iowa. 0:21:09.640 --> 0:21:11.680 You have over in Michigan you have the vacant seat 0:21:11.720 --> 0:21:14.440 that John James is leaving outside of Detroit and Tom 0:21:14.480 --> 0:21:17.280 Barrett seat that's kind of more central Michigan. That's Michigan. Seven. 0:21:17.720 --> 0:21:21.880 Over in Wisconsin you have Western Wisconsin. Wisconsin's third district. 0:21:22.119 --> 0:21:25.040 Derek Van Orden represents that district. He's in a lot 0:21:25.040 --> 0:21:28.400 of trouble. And in Iowa, there's really three swing seats 0:21:28.440 --> 0:21:30.800 in Iowa, but there's two that are really in a 0:21:30.840 --> 0:21:34.440 lot of trouble. There is the pro amnesty Republican Zach 0:21:34.560 --> 0:21:38.919 Nunn his seat in southwest Iowa. And then there's Marionette 0:21:39.040 --> 0:21:43.560 Miller Meeks. Mmm, she's in southeast Iowa. Let me tell 0:21:43.600 --> 0:21:47.359 you she doesn't get talked about a lot, Marionette Miller Meeks, 0:21:48.119 --> 0:21:51.280 but she is the face of persistence, this lady. She 0:21:51.480 --> 0:21:55.159 ran three times for the seat, lost all three times, 0:21:55.200 --> 0:21:57.199 then ran for state Senate, won the state Senate seat. 0:21:57.400 --> 0:22:00.840 Then she runs again a fourth time after using three times, 0:22:00.960 --> 0:22:04.720 and she wins by six votes out of four hundred 0:22:04.920 --> 0:22:08.600 thousand casts. She wins comfortably the second time, and then 0:22:08.640 --> 0:22:11.760 the third time she wins by eight hundred votes out 0:22:11.760 --> 0:22:15.600 of four hundred and fifteen thousand casts. She pulls out 0:22:15.760 --> 0:22:19.000 sweekers like no one's business. Can she do it again? 0:22:19.119 --> 0:22:22.760 Who's to say. We'll find out very quickly, but yeah, 0:22:22.840 --> 0:22:29.639 she triple ms Marionette Miller meeks Is. She's able to 0:22:29.640 --> 0:22:31.920