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Speaker 1: Welcome to everybody to betting pros. Obviously, last night, realities

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Speaker 1: of football and realities of life and death came into

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Speaker 1: play in the Monday night football game between the Bills

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Speaker 1: and the Bengals. We're here today to talk some football

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Speaker 1: with you all, but we are well aware of the

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Speaker 1: circumstances and how heavy they hang right now for the

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Speaker 1: life of tomorrow Hamlin and for his teammates, his family

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Speaker 1: and everyone who was involved in what happened last night,

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Speaker 1: and obviously a very difficult set of circumstances. So with

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Speaker 1: heavy hearts, we're here today to do a show, and

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Speaker 1: we're going to do our best to do that show.

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Speaker 1: But at the same time, everyone's mind is somewhere else.

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Speaker 1: Everyone's thoughts, their prayers, their hopes are for tomorrow Hamlin's

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Speaker 1: speedy recovery, and I think it is a certainly something

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Speaker 1: that is, as Pat was mentioning before the show, uncharted waters.

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Speaker 1: For all of us here, we've never been in a

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Speaker 1: circumstance like this. We've seen injuries in the NFL, we've

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Speaker 1: never seen something quite like that, and very happy for

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Speaker 1: one that they did not force those young men to

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Speaker 1: continue playing last night's game. I think it was the

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Speaker 1: right call, and I want to give credit to the coaches.

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Speaker 1: I want to give credit to the teams to stop

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Speaker 1: and realize that reality is far more important than a game.

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Speaker 1: And once again a set of circumstances that were very difficult,

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Speaker 1: and it was handled very well last night by many

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Speaker 1: people in the media. So I want to focus on

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Speaker 1: the positives. Ryan Clark and Scott fan Pelt last night

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Speaker 1: did an amazing job discussing and trying to continue to

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Speaker 1: broadcast in the circumstances, which was completely different than anything

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Speaker 1: I think any of us have ever experienced. We've all

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Speaker 1: been through different moments in our lives and certainly in

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Speaker 1: some strange scenarios in the past, but I think this

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Speaker 1: was a unique scenario last night, where everyone's sitting excited

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Speaker 1: for a Monani football game, what we got was a

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Speaker 1: harsh dose of reality, and I think, gentlemen, all we

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Speaker 1: can do is just remind everybody that you know, we

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Speaker 1: continue to hope for the best. It was, although a

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Speaker 1: very scary moment, also a moment where you look around

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Speaker 1: and you see once again the good. I kind of

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Speaker 1: go back to that alt sesame Street mister Rogers kind

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Speaker 1: of stuff back on PBS. You know, mister Rodgers always said,

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Speaker 1: look for the good, Look for the people doing good.

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Speaker 1: Look for the amazing people, the EMTs who came out

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Speaker 1: to work, Look for the amazing people and the doctors

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Speaker 1: who are there to do their job to get him

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Speaker 1: stable as stable as he could be in this critical condition.

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Speaker 1: And look to all of the incredible people and the

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Speaker 1: support on social media and the incredible work that people

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Speaker 1: did donating to his GoFundMe for the for the children's

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Speaker 1: toys for Tots that mister Hamlin set up. So although

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Speaker 1: a very difficult night, a night where you can take

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Speaker 1: out a lot of positive things as well, and we

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Speaker 1: continue to stay positive here for tomorrow. Hamlin, his family,

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Speaker 1: his teammates, and football is secondary to all of those things.

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Speaker 1: And we are not going to talk about those games

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Speaker 1: because the games coming up for those two teams are

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Speaker 1: not on the board and those games are inconsequential in

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Speaker 1: the grand scheme of things. Matthew Friedman, Patrits Morris, is

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Speaker 1: there anything you'd like to add here before we can

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Speaker 1: you on today with the business of football, which is

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Speaker 1: we all know inconsequential to a large degree right now.

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Speaker 1: But again it's something that we know is also going

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Speaker 1: to happen, and we're also going to do our best

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Speaker 1: to do our jobs here today.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, nothing for me. I think you you said it well.

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Speaker 2: And obviously our you know, thoughts are with you know,

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Speaker 2: the Bills and their family and you know DeMar Hamlin

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Speaker 2: and everyone who's involved there, and you know football fans

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Speaker 2: in general. It's it's a tough game, and I you know,

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Speaker 2: I think everyone knows it's a tough game, and you know,

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Speaker 2: I think it's just you know, thankful that stuff like

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Speaker 2: this doesn't happen more often that these guys. You know,

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Speaker 2: they really lay their bodies on the line every every day,

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Speaker 2: every game, every play, you know, every day that they're

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Speaker 2: out there. And so you know, obviously our thoughts are

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Speaker 2: with all of them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, pat the they are the gladiators in the arena

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Speaker 1: in the modern day, that's what they are. And and

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Speaker 1: we all know you know how hard they work. Uh,

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Speaker 1: this is their dream too, I mean, so this is

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Speaker 1: this is people living their dream. It's always a thing

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Speaker 1: we say when we cover the draft every year, like

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Speaker 1: this is somebody's dream coming true. We get to watch that.

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Speaker 1: It's just a miraculous thing. I think that's why it

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Speaker 1: kind of surpasses football. And this last night was also

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Speaker 1: an event that sort of surpassed football, unfortunately in a

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Speaker 1: different way.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, prayers for Hamlin. And this is why I really

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Speaker 3: am never.

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Speaker 4: You'll never catch me talking about football players being overpaid,

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Speaker 4: because you know, these are the risks they take.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, I mean, it's just.

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Speaker 4: You're almost surprised it doesn't something like this hasn't happened sooner.

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Speaker 4: You know, things like this don't happen more often because

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Speaker 4: of the nature of the sport and some of the

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Speaker 4: hits we see these guys take. And you know, as

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Speaker 4: we were talking about backstage before the show, like this

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Speaker 4: seemed like a relatively benign tackle, like a routine play. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: like you see twenty things more violent looking during any

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Speaker 4: NFL game. And yeah, man, it's a tough business. And yeah,

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Speaker 4: I think you said everything very well, Joe.

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Speaker 1: It's also a business that we love. These these men

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Speaker 1: who play it, and the men and women who are

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Speaker 1: around this game and make their living off this game.

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Speaker 1: They love this game. We love this game. That's why

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Speaker 1: we're here doing what we do. So it's a it's

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Speaker 1: a it's a game that brings us all together. And

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Speaker 1: last night was another moment that did that. And and

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Speaker 1: it was a weekend of some great football and some

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Speaker 1: incredible stuff going on. So not to be lost in

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Speaker 1: that too, of all the joy and starting off the

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Speaker 1: new year with football and all that community. And that's

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Speaker 1: what we're doing here, and as we continue to look

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Speaker 1: ahead to those things that we enjoy so much, getting

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Speaker 1: together with our friends and family watching these games. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna watch these games. We're gonna be involved in these games,

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Speaker 1: and the players are gonna be, you know, playing these

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Speaker 1: games going forward. And we're gonna start here with Saturday

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Speaker 1: games because the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be

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Speaker 1: playing Las Vegas Raiders. We know those games have been

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Speaker 1: moved to Saturday. I know we're very excited about the

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Speaker 1: Tennessee Jacksonville one. We'll get to that one of this second.

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Speaker 1: That's going to be a really great game to talk about.

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Speaker 1: But first, Kansas City. We know the number for this

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Speaker 1: one is fifty three. Nine and a half is the

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Speaker 1: spread here. We're looking at the Las Vegas Raiders hosting

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Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs. Plas Vegas pushed unbelievable to overtime

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Speaker 1: San Francisco forty nine er is an incredible effort. There

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Speaker 1: could not have been more wrong about Devonte Adams and

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Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders and Jared Sidham. They did come

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Speaker 1: up short though, But here we are so Friedman when

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Speaker 1: you're looking at this game here, and obviously the Kansasity

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Speaker 1: Chiefs continue to roll themselves into the playoffs. What do

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Speaker 1: you think about this nine and a half? Is that

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Speaker 1: number safe? Well?

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Speaker 2: Jared Sindholm looked really great, surprisingly great last week. Well,

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Speaker 2: I say great, but you know.

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Speaker 1: He had to say the county it's okay.

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Speaker 2: He had the county numbers, you know, over three hundred

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Speaker 2: yards three hundred and sixty five yards three touchdown, did

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Speaker 2: have two interceptions, but certainly he was better than I

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Speaker 2: anticipated he would be, given everything that we had seen

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Speaker 2: and hadn't seen out of him to that point in

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Speaker 2: his career. So the Raiders do get a little bit

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Speaker 2: of an upgrade there. That said, I still have the

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Speaker 2: Kansas City Chiefs at minus ten point seventy five here.

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Speaker 2: I haven't bet it because the projections have been off

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Speaker 2: with the Chiefs all year long, Like the in terms

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Speaker 2: of the numbers that they are able to put up,

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Speaker 2: I think they deserve to be the number one or

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Speaker 2: number two power rated team in the league. You know,

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Speaker 2: they are in the highest tier of all the teams here,

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Speaker 2: but there's a difference between what they're able to do

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Speaker 2: on a play to play basis and the number of

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Speaker 2: points they're able to get in needing to covering a spread,

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Speaker 2: and they just haven't been able to do that recently.

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Speaker 2: So I think that if I had to bet aside here,

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Speaker 2: I would lean ever so slightly towards the Chiefs, But

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Speaker 2: I'm not betting it. Pat.

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Speaker 1: Are you in the same mold here when it comes

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Speaker 1: to the Chiefs where you really don't want to get

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Speaker 1: pressed into this number of the nine and a half

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Speaker 1: because of these games have been closer.

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Speaker 4: I am, and especially coming off a game in which

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Speaker 4: I beat the Chiefs or bet the Chiefs to cover

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Speaker 4: against the Broncos and they didn't. Again, I mean, that's

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Speaker 4: twice I've been burned on Chiefs Broncos game this year

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Speaker 4: and not those are not the first two times I've

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Speaker 4: been burned betting the Chiefs as big favorites, Like I

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Speaker 4: just am sick of losing money betting the Chiefs as

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Speaker 4: big favorites in games where it seems like they should

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Speaker 4: win by two or three touchdowns, So I don't want

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Speaker 4: to do that here, but I am interested in this

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Speaker 4: total because fifty three seems just way too high. And

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Speaker 4: I do realize the Raiders were just involved in the

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Speaker 4: seventy one point game with Jared Stidham, and granted, he

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Speaker 4: did look really good in that game, but he also

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Speaker 4: threw two interceptions. It would not surprise me if the

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Speaker 4: Jared Stidham carriage turned into a pumpkin.

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Speaker 3: For this game.

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Speaker 4: And yeah, I mean, like I just in their earlier

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Speaker 4: meeting fifty nine points, really well played game.

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Speaker 3: The Chiefs beat the Raiders thirty to.

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Speaker 4: Twenty nine in a game where I think there were

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Speaker 4: like seven hundred and fifty yards of offense and no turnovers.

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Speaker 4: I don't think we're going to see that kind of

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Speaker 4: a game here in Week eighteen with a backup quarterback

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Speaker 4: going for the Raiders. And I'm still kind of viewing

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Speaker 4: him as such as a backup quarterback. You know, I

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Speaker 4: don't think he's the second coming of Jim Plunkett, just

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Speaker 4: because of that game against the forty nine ers.

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Speaker 2: I will say one quick thing here on the spread,

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Speaker 2: it is as low as eight and a half at DraftKings.

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Speaker 2: It is nine at points bet in nine and a

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Speaker 2: half at bet MGM and FanDuel. So there is a

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Speaker 2: little bit of market disagreement or market movement on this number,

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Speaker 2: and it would not surprise me if it continued to

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Speaker 2: move towards the Raiders in this spot, as it already

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Speaker 2: is doing in the market. So, I you know, depending

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Speaker 2: on where you're leaning, I think you bet it now

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Speaker 2: or you wait.

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Speaker 3: You think it could get lower than eight and a half.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it could interesting all right.

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Speaker 1: The Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans are giving us an

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Speaker 1: early playoff game. You win, and you win the division.

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Speaker 1: Here I assume if you dialed this back I don't

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Speaker 1: know about eight weeks ago, this number would be inverted.

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Speaker 1: But right now you are correct. You're looking at the

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars being six and a half point home favorites.

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Speaker 1: You're over the Tennessee Titans. And this is a huge

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Speaker 1: scenario here for the Jacksonville who playing with house money,

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Speaker 1: they're eight and eight. The Tennessee Titans are seven to nine.

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Speaker 1: Thirty eight and a half is the number plus two

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Speaker 1: twenty five on the money line for the Titans. Uh, pat,

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Speaker 1: when you're looking at this one, clearly all the momentum

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Speaker 1: is on the Jacksonville side in the last few weeks.

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Speaker 1: You are also going to get a different quarterback again

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Speaker 1: for the Tennessee Titans here, so that certainly has a

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Speaker 1: lot to do with this. Do you think the Titans

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Speaker 1: just have enough, let's say, not even to win this game,

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Speaker 1: but do they have enough to keep this game close?

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Speaker 1: In your opinion?

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Speaker 3: Oh? Maybe?

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Speaker 4: It seems like based on the last six games, in

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Speaker 4: this six game losing streak there on, no, because they

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Speaker 4: have just not been able to generate much offense. I mean,

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Speaker 4: they've scored sixteen or fewer points in five of these

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Speaker 4: six losses, and they haven't scored more than fourteen points

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Speaker 4: in any of their last three games. So hard to

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Speaker 4: see the optimism for them offensively. I don't know, man,

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Speaker 4: Maybe Vrabel can rally the troops and like they would

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Speaker 4: have to ugly this game up. I think to have

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Speaker 4: a chance, truly. And it's kind of interesting. When these

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Speaker 4: teams last played, it was Week fourteen and the Jaguars

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Speaker 4: won thirty six twenty two, and I felt like we've

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Speaker 4: seen glimpses of the Jaguars offense play well earlier this

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Speaker 4: season throughout the season, but like Week fourteen seemed like

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Speaker 4: it was their great awakening on offense. Like they have

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Speaker 4: been really good ever since that game. And like, I

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Speaker 4: don't know if the Titans defense as injury ravaged as

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Speaker 4: it's been, and they've given up twenty five point seven

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Speaker 4: points a game during this losing streak, I don't know

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Speaker 4: if they can keep the Jaguars from, you know, functioning

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Speaker 4: at this high level they've been functioning at. So I

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Speaker 4: kind of like the over here, but I'm not crazy

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Speaker 4: about the side. Like I think the line is pretty

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Speaker 4: close to what it should be.

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Speaker 1: H You mentioned Pat about this is what they do.

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Speaker 1: You know, they kind of keep things close, keep it ugly,

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Speaker 1: you know. But at this point, Freeman, with all the

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Speaker 1: injuries that this team has suffered, do you think that

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Speaker 1: they're capable of continuing to play that style of football?

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Speaker 2: No, I think zero chance. And there's and they haven't

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Speaker 2: even been playing it to this point, so I don't think,

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Speaker 2: like they haven't been able to play successfully ugly winning

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Speaker 2: football for the past six weeks or so. And you know,

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Speaker 2: as Fits mentioned in that Week fourteen game, the Jags

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Speaker 2: were underdogs. They were three and a half point underdogs,

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Speaker 2: and they went out there and won by two touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: And the Titans are even more injured now than they

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Speaker 2: were then. Now, granted you can say that, you know,

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Speaker 2: they basically took a glorified by last week by letting

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Speaker 2: a lot of their players rest, but a lot of

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Speaker 2: those players weren't going to be playing anyway because they

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Speaker 2: were injured. And that's not even counting guys who are

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Speaker 2: on IR so they are I mean, I'm not even

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Speaker 2: going to try to list all of the players who

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Speaker 2: are out for them on IR. But you know, importantly,

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Speaker 2: Ryan Tannehill is still out. Like that's that's one of

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Speaker 2: the most important positions that they could have. I know,

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Speaker 2: like they'd emphasize quarterback more than most teams, but there's

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Speaker 2: still a significant drop off from Tannehill to Josh Dobbs

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Speaker 2: and that's assuming that Dobbs is better than Malik Willis,

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Speaker 2: and he probably is. But like they're starting their third

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Speaker 2: string quarterback in this game going against a team that is,

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Speaker 2: you know, firing on all cylinders right now, and the

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Speaker 2: players who were injured and maybe could have played last week,

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Speaker 2: there's still no guarantee that all of those guys come

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Speaker 2: back this week. Christian Fulton cornerback, Dylan Cole linebacker, and

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Speaker 2: then on the defensive line, Jeffrey Simmons a defensive tackle,

281
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Speaker 2: Deneko Autrey at edge, you know, and then right tackle

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Speaker 2: Nicholas Petit Frere. There's no guarantee he's playing in this game.

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Speaker 2: Safety and money Hooker like they are just injured all

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Speaker 2: over the place. I don't think this game is close.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I've caught it with you, Friedan. I think that

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Speaker 1: Tennessee can't do what they want to do anymore. And

287
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Speaker 1: a knock on Dobbs, you know, he had a couple

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Speaker 1: moments in that game. It's just I think Jacksonville is

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Speaker 1: a really good football team right now. They're playing good

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Speaker 1: defense too, A get into the quarterback, I mean, they're

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Speaker 1: making things happen there. What a story to what a

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Speaker 1: turnaround the Jacksonville Jaguars in the year, the laughing sock

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Speaker 1: of the league all the way to a playoff team.

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Speaker 1: Amazing turnaround. Potentially Tampa Bay Buccaneers, they look like they're

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Speaker 1: gonna be a playoff team. Eight and eight, six and

296
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Speaker 1: ten Atlanta Falcons, they are on the road facing the Falcons.

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Speaker 1: Tampa's three point favorites. As you would imagine, that's about

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Speaker 1: right here. Can't really give Tampa too much credit. Forty

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Speaker 1: and a half is the number. I'm sorry, yes, I

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Speaker 1: see that. My apologies. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are three

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Speaker 1: point underdogs to the Falcons here. So is this the

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Speaker 1: case Friedman where we're just looking at a team that's

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Speaker 1: not playing for anything. We're not worried about everyone's sitting.

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Speaker 1: So is this a game that you would even wager

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Speaker 1: on because of that variable?

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Speaker 2: No, it's a meaningless game, you know, in theory. And

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Speaker 2: so this opened as seven and a half. The Falcons

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Speaker 2: were seven and a half point favorites when this this

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Speaker 2: line opened on Sunday night, and it's been bat down

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Speaker 2: to three. Seven and a half was way too much,

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Speaker 2: but three is right around where it should be. I

312
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Speaker 2: have this projected at three point seventy five because we

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Speaker 2: don't know for sure how much the Buccaneers are going

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Speaker 2: to rest in this spot, like, yeah, they looked good

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Speaker 2: on offense last week, but there's the possibility that they

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Speaker 2: still might want to get in some of those like

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Speaker 2: quote unquote live practice reps to get in playoff state

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Speaker 2: because their offense. Yeah, sure it's looked good in one

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Speaker 2: out of the past like fourteen games, but you know

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Speaker 2: it's not up here where they do.

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Speaker 1: What's more important for them reps or or the age

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Speaker 1: of this team and getting more rest, Like I guess

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Speaker 1: at this point, that's the way I think they get.

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Speaker 2: I think they get significant rest on defense, and I

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Speaker 2: think offense they let those guys go out there and

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Speaker 2: try to gel just a little bit more.

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Speaker 1: It sounds about right to me. Do you agree here, Pat?

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Speaker 1: And does that make this game a little precarious from

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Speaker 1: a number standpoint?

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Speaker 3: I do agree.

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Speaker 4: You know, Todd Bowles has said that he wants to play,

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Speaker 4: that he's planning to play his starters. I believe that

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Speaker 4: was the exact quote, and it's just a matter of

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Speaker 4: how much. And I think we see probably a preseason

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Speaker 4: type approach to this game, where as Friedman was talking about,

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Speaker 4: like let them especially after a game where their offense

337
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Speaker 4: maybe not the running game, but at least the passing

338
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Speaker 4: game was very functional and successful against the Panthers in

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Speaker 4: that big game. Maybe they give the starters a couple

340
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Speaker 4: of series and just try to keep the rhythm going.

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Speaker 4: But Eventually this is going to turn into Desmond Ritter

342
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Speaker 4: versus Blaine Gabbert, and at forty and a half, I'm

343
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Speaker 4: pretty interested in the under here.

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Speaker 1: That's probably the best way right now. I'm trying to

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Speaker 1: look at what good call there? Pat? All Right? The

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Speaker 1: Chicago Bears at home four point underdogs to the Minnesota Vikings.

347
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Speaker 1: The Vikings are now twelve and four after getting shellacked

348
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Speaker 1: by the Green Bay Packers. Oh man, what a what

349
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Speaker 1: a bad look that was for the Vikings in a

350
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Speaker 1: really good game for past Green Bay Packers. Forty five

351
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Speaker 1: and a half is the number plus one fifty six

352
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Speaker 1: on the money line for the Bears. Like the Bears

353
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Speaker 1: looked like they're trying to track for the highest draft

354
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Speaker 1: pick they can right now, which is probably a good

355
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Speaker 1: idea for them. Get justin field some help, Pat, Minnesota

356
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Speaker 1: Vikings licking their wounds a little bit. I'm sure this

357
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Speaker 1: is a fun one for you here on this end.

358
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Speaker 1: What do you think of this four in the state

359
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Speaker 1: of these two football teams coming into the last week

360
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Speaker 1: of the season.

361
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Speaker 4: Boy, Joe, I don't know what to think because talk

362
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Speaker 4: about ambiguous motivation levels for a football game right now,

363
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Speaker 4: I mean the Bears probably don't want to mess up

364
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:39,480
Speaker 4: their playoffs or their draft position. Matt Eberflus has been

365
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Speaker 4: noncommittal about whether he's going to play Justin Fields, And like,

366
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Speaker 4: if you watch that game with the Bears and Lions

367
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Speaker 4: last week, Fields did not do much running after that

368
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Speaker 4: long run in the one order, Yeah, and it looked

369
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Speaker 4: like he was, I don't know, like not right after

370
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Speaker 4: he got up and like he was maybe laboring to

371
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Speaker 4: breathe a little bit on that. I wonder if like

372
00:18:03,880 --> 00:18:06,040
Speaker 4: he had some sort of rib injury or something like

373
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Speaker 4: any other.

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Speaker 1: And I also think Pad in that game, I mean,

375
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Speaker 1: just nobody was healthy around him too. He had no

376
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Speaker 1: wide receivert He's got very little talent around him and

377
00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:15,440
Speaker 1: very little targets around him and people that can get open.

378
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Speaker 1: So he's just kind of in a bad spot all around.

379
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Speaker 1: I'm I think they shouldn't play him. I think they

380
00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:21,719
Speaker 1: shoul put him in the bubble round for next year

381
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Speaker 1: and say let's move on if that ends up being

382
00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:26,679
Speaker 1: the scenario. What do you think of the Vikings on

383
00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:27,080
Speaker 1: this side?

384
00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,359
Speaker 4: Well, here's the thing, Joe, do the Vikings really want

385
00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:33,760
Speaker 4: to jump past the forty nine ers and get into

386
00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,359
Speaker 4: that second spot, because if they get the number two seed,

387
00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:39,000
Speaker 4: they are probably going to be playing either the Green

388
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:43,240
Speaker 4: Bay Packers or the Detroit Lions. And you know, a

389
00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:46,080
Speaker 4: Green Bay Packers team that just completely trucked them in

390
00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:49,719
Speaker 4: Lambeau Field and was, you know, the first team all

391
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Speaker 4: year to really just maybe not the first, but among

392
00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:56,040
Speaker 4: the first teams to clamp down justin Jefferson.

393
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Speaker 1: They tried to Hey, look, there was a lot of

394
00:18:57,560 --> 00:18:59,960
Speaker 1: issues with that field surface too. He guys are strip

395
00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:01,879
Speaker 1: all over the place, fall over us. But give jyr

396
00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,320
Speaker 1: Alexander and all them credit. They played physical, they played hard,

397
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Speaker 1: and they kept their foot on the gas too, which

398
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Speaker 1: is something sometimes that Packer team also struggles with.

399
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Speaker 4: Yeah, but like, I don't know how badly the Vikings

400
00:19:14,040 --> 00:19:15,760
Speaker 4: are going to want to win this game and go

401
00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 4: all out for it, Like I'm not sure if Fields

402
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:22,119
Speaker 4: doesn't play. I mean, this line looks too small. But

403
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:26,320
Speaker 4: at the same time, like, I don't know that the

404
00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:29,520
Speaker 4: Vikings are hugely motivated in this one themselves, and they

405
00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:31,640
Speaker 4: might rest some of their starters in the second half

406
00:19:31,680 --> 00:19:32,159
Speaker 4: at least.

407
00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:34,199
Speaker 1: Freeman, do you think the Vikings have to go in

408
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 1: and kind of wash their mouth out a little bit

409
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:39,199
Speaker 1: with after what happened to this, and you think they

410
00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,520
Speaker 1: kind of need a cleansing kind of contest here against

411
00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:42,879
Speaker 1: the Bears to get back on track and get that

412
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:43,760
Speaker 1: conference level up.

413
00:19:45,520 --> 00:19:48,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so, I don't think. I mean, I

414
00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:52,679
Speaker 2: think they've announced that they're not planning on benching their starters. Uh.

415
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:57,439
Speaker 2: And you know, given the situation with the Bears, I

416
00:19:57,480 --> 00:20:00,919
Speaker 2: think it's not known if they're Citty justin fields, but

417
00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 2: they have every incentive not to win this game. They

418
00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:07,360
Speaker 2: have the incentive to maybe start him and then Benjamin halftime,

419
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 2: so they can you know, evaluate the other quarterback like

420
00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:12,879
Speaker 2: whatever it is. Like, I don't think we're going to

421
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,080
Speaker 2: see the Bears doing their full thing, and I think

422
00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:17,520
Speaker 2: the Vikings will want to, you know, sort of get

423
00:20:17,560 --> 00:20:20,320
Speaker 2: back on track, as you mentioned there. So I have

424
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:23,440
Speaker 2: this projected at three point five, but like I understand

425
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:26,760
Speaker 2: that I'm probably not accurately accounting for all the different

426
00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:28,920
Speaker 2: variables in this spot. And if I had to bet

427
00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:32,240
Speaker 2: on a side here, and in fact I did earlier,

428
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,480
Speaker 2: I would bet on Minnesota. But I took that number one.

429
00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:38,760
Speaker 2: It was Minnesota minus one, which is where it opened

430
00:20:38,760 --> 00:20:40,920
Speaker 2: on Sunday night. One one and a half and it's

431
00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,200
Speaker 2: now moved, you know, to four, So the market has

432
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:46,240
Speaker 2: been moving towards Minnesota, and I think that's the right side.

433
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:49,960
Speaker 1: Indianapolis hosting the Houston Texans. The Colts are four eleven

434
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 1: and one. The Houston Texas are two and thirteen. The

435
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 1: Colts are two and a half point favorites in this

436
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 1: one thirty is the number and the money line is

437
00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:00,119
Speaker 1: plus one thirty on the Houston side. Freedman's gonna sound crazy,

438
00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:02,479
Speaker 1: and I know a lot of Houston Texans fans probably

439
00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:04,520
Speaker 1: don't want to hear me say this, but I think

440
00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:06,640
Speaker 1: the number is wrong. I think the Houston Texans could

441
00:21:06,680 --> 00:21:08,159
Speaker 1: go in there and win this football game. What do

442
00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:08,600
Speaker 1: you think?

443
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, the Colts shouldn't be favored against anyone. I

444
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:13,880
Speaker 2: guess the only reason why they are favored is because

445
00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 2: of home field advantage and theory. But yeah, they are.

446
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,160
Speaker 2: They are the worst team. I think they're the worst

447
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,080
Speaker 2: team in the league right now. I think the Texans

448
00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 2: are better the Texans. You know, before getting demolished last week,

449
00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:32,280
Speaker 2: they've been playing some very quality opponents, very tough, and yeah,

450
00:21:32,320 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 2: they have much more of a backbone than I think

451
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:37,440
Speaker 2: we have. Seen out of the Colts recently. He will

452
00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 2: now be starting Sam Elling or their you know, second

453
00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 2: string third string quarterback track. Yeah, yeah, this and this

454
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,880
Speaker 2: number is still three plus three at DraftKings, plus three

455
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:53,399
Speaker 2: at points. Bet, I don't know. This is like pure

456
00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:57,680
Speaker 2: this is pure gambling at this point. But I if

457
00:21:57,720 --> 00:21:59,879
Speaker 2: I had to take a position, it would definitely be

458
00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,439
Speaker 2: and I am tempted to do it given there's a

459
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:05,680
Speaker 2: three out there. That's where this opened, and it has

460
00:22:05,760 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 2: moved to two and a half at some books, So

461
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:09,320
Speaker 2: I'm very tempted by this.

462
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:13,120
Speaker 1: All right, let's get your take here on this path,

463
00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 1: I would just go flat out the QSA on the

464
00:22:15,080 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 1: money line at plus one thirty and look onto the

465
00:22:17,600 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 1: next game. What would you do here?

466
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 4: I see you kind of the same way you do, Joe,

467
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,639
Speaker 4: Especially with Sam Ellinger at quarterback. I mean, the India

468
00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 4: offense was pretty hapless with Ellinger making two starts earlier

469
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:31,200
Speaker 4: in weeks eight nine. They scored nineteen points in those

470
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,920
Speaker 4: two games combined. In the second of those two games,

471
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 4: they scored three points against the Patriots, and Ellinger was

472
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:41,320
Speaker 4: sacked nine times while throwing for one hundred and three yards.

473
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 4: His sack yardage almost exceeded his passing yardage.

474
00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 3: The one thing I'm worried about though, here can the.

475
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 4: Bears leap frog the Texans and get the first pick

476
00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:53,680
Speaker 4: if the Texans win this game and the Bears lose.

477
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:58,439
Speaker 3: I believe that would be the case, wouldn't it.

478
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,560
Speaker 1: I would certainly put a wrinkle in the situation there

479
00:23:02,600 --> 00:23:05,920
Speaker 1: for them. Look, there's more than one franchise quarterback. I

480
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:09,439
Speaker 1: think in that draft I would say minimum two. So

481
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:10,800
Speaker 1: if you're going to go to the two spot, I

482
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,359
Speaker 1: think you can still be okay. It's weird as Friedman

483
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:15,919
Speaker 1: looked at that. Pat. My take is, especially you know,

484
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:20,919
Speaker 1: after everything they've been through with the Euston Texas organization, is

485
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:22,680
Speaker 1: they want that one pick and they should take Bryce

486
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,639
Speaker 1: Young because I think they need a makeover start to finish,

487
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:27,200
Speaker 1: and I think he's the right kind of new face

488
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,119
Speaker 1: for that organization. I don't know if they want to

489
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:33,639
Speaker 1: go through another situation where you're questioning a player or

490
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,119
Speaker 1: you're wondering, is this the player we're taking the talent

491
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:37,800
Speaker 1: or is this like we're getting the full package. I

492
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,040
Speaker 1: think this is an organization it kind of needs the

493
00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,159
Speaker 1: total package there a little bit more Bryce Young is

494
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 1: a good face for that, Freeman, do you have the

495
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:46,400
Speaker 1: update on that? Pretty sure?

496
00:23:46,440 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 2: They haven't locked in because they tied a game, and

497
00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 2: so even if they win, they would be what's that number?

498
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 2: They would be, sorry, they would be three. Even if

499
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:59,400
Speaker 2: they want, they'd be three thirteen and one, and if

500
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 2: Chicago loses, they would be three fourteen fourteen. I'm wrong.

501
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, they would flip them.

502
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:07,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, they would tie.

503
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, okay, So yeah, like that's the one concern. I mean,

504
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 4: Lovey Smith strikes me as the old school, yeah we're

505
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:16,159
Speaker 4: gonna play to win kind of coach.

506
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,520
Speaker 3: But you know, you also wonder if.

507
00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:21,200
Speaker 4: There's gonna be any communication between Lovy and the front

508
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 4: office about maybe, uh, you know, how much the starter's

509
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 4: play in the second half.

510
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 1: That's very possible, very dangerous circumstances is what you get

511
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,680
Speaker 1: to a week eighteen, the Jets seven to nine versus

512
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,399
Speaker 1: the Miami Dolphins eight and eight. The Dolphins continue to sputter.

513
00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 1: Mike White was not magic unfortunately against the Seahawks earlier

514
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,120
Speaker 1: this week. The Dolphins are one point home favorites.

515
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:41,359
Speaker 2: Here.

516
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 1: Thirty eight is the number we're gonna get Teddy Bridgewater

517
00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:47,679
Speaker 1: again in this game. Look, it's practically a pick them fits.

518
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 1: So who do you want to pick? If anybody here?

519
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:53,720
Speaker 3: Oh, man, I'm probably just gonna lay off this game.

520
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:57,120
Speaker 4: And it might not even be Teddy because he's got

521
00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:00,640
Speaker 4: this pinky injury on his throwing hands.

522
00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 3: So we might get oh flanking Skylar Tops, a k

523
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 3: State kid. Yeah.

524
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:11,200
Speaker 4: So, And like, I feel like the Jets are probably

525
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 4: going to be motivated to try to go out on

526
00:25:14,359 --> 00:25:17,679
Speaker 4: a high note, and you know, feel good about themselves

527
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:20,359
Speaker 4: going into the off season after what's been largely as

528
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 4: successful season, even though things have not gone well for

529
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 4: them of late. So anyway, with the either a second

530
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:32,359
Speaker 4: or third string quarterback playing for Miami, and you know,

531
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 4: I think Mike White has revealed himself to be not

532
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 4: the savior of the Jets in recent weeks, I'm leaning

533
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 4: a little bit toward the under here. But I don't

534
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 4: really want to pick a side, Joe. I mean, like

535
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,520
Speaker 4: you said, it's pretty much a pick them at this number,

536
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,439
Speaker 4: and I just like I don't feel good about it.

537
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:52,760
Speaker 4: If I were forced to make a calumnist, I think

538
00:25:52,800 --> 00:25:53,639
Speaker 4: I take the Jets.

539
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 1: Though the Jets and Dolphins, by the way, I have

540
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,199
Speaker 1: both lost five in a row here, your thoughts were

541
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,439
Speaker 1: even on that one of these teams theoretically has to

542
00:26:01,480 --> 00:26:03,919
Speaker 1: win here, do you see any value at all early on?

543
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:09,959
Speaker 2: I have a slight lean to Miami, but it's you know,

544
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 2: like one point five versus one, So I don't really

545
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,119
Speaker 2: have any any lean here that I would bet on.

546
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:20,400
Speaker 2: Both of these teams have fallen, Like both of them

547
00:26:20,400 --> 00:26:23,919
Speaker 2: look like pretty decent playoff contenders earlier in the year,

548
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,080
Speaker 2: and then, as you mentioned, both lost five games in

549
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 2: a row. I mean, there's a I doubt that either

550
00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:32,040
Speaker 2: one of these coaches gets fired, but one of these

551
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:35,440
Speaker 2: coaches will have six straight losses on his resume entering

552
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,440
Speaker 2: the offseason. Like there's a chance that someone will get

553
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 2: fired if it's not the coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator,

554
00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:43,879
Speaker 2: whatever it is. I feel like someone is going to

555
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:46,439
Speaker 2: lose their job in that coaching staff.

556
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 1: But one thing I'd say that Friedman is I think

557
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 1: that it's it's the quarterback situation for the Jets. I

558
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,680
Speaker 1: think all of us think if the Jets had consistent,

559
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:57,840
Speaker 1: competent quarterback play, we might be looking at a different

560
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 1: story here. For the Jets. This year has been very good.

561
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:03,160
Speaker 1: I think roberts All is a good coach. Mike McDaniel

562
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:05,679
Speaker 1: I was skeptical, and then he was kind of the

563
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 1: guy for a while there he was the boy genius

564
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:10,160
Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden it's come crashing down.

565
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 1: But once again, you know, you don't have the right

566
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 1: health of the quarterback. Quarterbacks not in the right place.

567
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,760
Speaker 1: You know, these things come very tenuous, very quickly. In

568
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 1: the NFL. Carolina Panthers had a moment in the island

569
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:22,680
Speaker 1: of relevancy last week, but now they are six and

570
00:27:22,680 --> 00:27:24,680
Speaker 1: ten taking on the New Orleans Saints at seven to nine.

571
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 1: They are three and a half way underdogs traveling to

572
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:29,320
Speaker 1: New Orleans, as they should be. Forty one and a

573
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 1: half is the number plus one sixty on the money

574
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 1: line for the Panthers. Let's talk about this one here, Friedman.

575
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:38,120
Speaker 1: Carolina certainly a team that's been more competitive with Sam

576
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 1: Darnold under center, and the question is can they be

577
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 1: competitive in this game here? And do you like the

578
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:45,719
Speaker 1: side of the Carolina Panthers because of that?

579
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have I actually a pretty strong lean towards

580
00:27:50,000 --> 00:27:51,920
Speaker 2: the Saints here. I haven't bet it. This is one

581
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:55,239
Speaker 2: of those games where neither team really has anything to

582
00:27:55,240 --> 00:27:58,400
Speaker 2: play for. But you know the numbers three and a half.

583
00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:00,919
Speaker 2: I have it at six. I think the Saints are

584
00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 2: pretty significantly better than the Panthers. You know, the Panthers

585
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:08,360
Speaker 2: are missing their top two cornerbacks. The Saints are almost

586
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 2: entirely healthy now on defense. Their offense isn't great, but

587
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:16,879
Speaker 2: I think it is good enough. So again, I guess

588
00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:20,840
Speaker 2: Sam Darnold has been reasonably good, or he's been better

589
00:28:20,880 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 2: than I would have expected the past four weeks or so.

590
00:28:23,720 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 2: But I still don't think the Panthers are really all

591
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:28,240
Speaker 2: that good on offense. All right.

592
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:30,960
Speaker 1: Fits one of your thoughts here about this contest. Do

593
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 1: you think that New Orleans is indeed the worthy favorite

594
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 1: here in this contest? As Vegas does believe.

595
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 3: No, I kind of see this differently than Friedman.

596
00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 4: In fact, I've got I think it should be a

597
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 4: two and a half point game, but like, things are

598
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,240
Speaker 4: moving against me. And while I was looking at this

599
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 4: game on DraftKings about an hour ago, I mean this

600
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 4: moved in real time to four.

601
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 3: Points on Draft Kings. I'm not sure if it's still

602
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 3: at four, but.

603
00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:01,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, so, I just like the way the Panthers have

604
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 4: played since Darnald took over. You know, their collapse on

605
00:29:07,440 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 4: defense against the Buccaneers last week notwithstanding and a lot

606
00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:13,400
Speaker 4: of that obviously with j C. Horn out, I mean,

607
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:17,040
Speaker 4: losing one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL, you know,

608
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 4: and all of a sudden, Mike Evans just totally erupts

609
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:21,920
Speaker 4: and the past defense.

610
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 3: Went to hell.

611
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 4: But like, are the Saints equipped to take advantage of

612
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 4: a depleted secondary for the Panthers, Like, I don't know

613
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 4: if I don't know if they are. And yeah, I

614
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 4: mean that the Panthers offense has generally looked a lot

615
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 4: better with Darnold at the controls. I feel like this

616
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 4: is going to be a close game, and you know,

617
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 4: when the spread is drifting past field goal range, I

618
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 4: me inclined to take the Panthers.

619
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 1: The next game on these slate for Week eight, teams

620
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 1: of Pittsburgh Steelers eight and eight. After a big victory

621
00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:59,320
Speaker 1: of Sunday Night against Multimore Ravens seven to nine, Cleveland

622
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:02,560
Speaker 1: Browns come to Pittsburgh three point favorites at home, So

623
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,280
Speaker 1: they're basically telling you this is your standard NFL contest.

624
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 1: Thirty nine is the over under plus one thirty four

625
00:30:08,200 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 1: of the Cleveland Browns pat the Steelers, you know, starting

626
00:30:11,400 --> 00:30:13,120
Speaker 1: to I think, get a little confidence they have a

627
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,880
Speaker 1: chance to be above five hundred here this week with

628
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:19,160
Speaker 1: a victory. That's something that you would certainly like to

629
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 1: do if you're Mike Tomlin after a very rough start

630
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 1: to the season. Do you think that's the case when

631
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:25,480
Speaker 1: all said and done here?

632
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, Tomlin's never finished with the losing record, right, so

633
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 4: he's trying to keep that streak intact. Boy, I mean,

634
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 4: if it stays at a field goal, if it gets

635
00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 4: to anything more than a field goal, I would want

636
00:30:39,960 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 4: to be on Cleveland.

637
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:42,520
Speaker 1: Like I agree with that.

638
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:46,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, Like Pittsburgh should not be favored by more than

639
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 4: a field goal against just about anyone, especially a team

640
00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 4: that's you know, reasonably competitive here like the Browns. So

641
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 4: right now, I'm just not really interested in touching this game.

642
00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 4: It feels like it's going to be another, you know,

643
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 4: typical AFC North slog of a game, low scoring, close,

644
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:07,959
Speaker 4: I'm not interested in betting it.

645
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 1: Normally you'd't want to go for the under here too,

646
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 1: but thirty nine's already set pretty low? Friedman, Is that

647
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 1: too low of a bar?

648
00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,240
Speaker 2: I think that's probably about right. I actually still even

649
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 2: at a current number, you know, it's plus two and

650
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 2: a half across the market. There is a Juice plus

651
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 2: three at bet MGM. I would bet that I like

652
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 2: Cleveland in the spot. I have this close to a

653
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 2: pick them. I think Cleveland they have the better quarterback.

654
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:35,479
Speaker 2: Even though Deshaun Watson hasn't been great since returning, we

655
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 2: did see him start to round into form in the

656
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:41,680
Speaker 2: second half last week. And the defense for the Browns

657
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 2: for the past six weeks or so has been like

658
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 2: back to the unit that people expected it to be

659
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 2: entering the year. It's been one of the best defenses

660
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 2: in the league. So I think they have the better quarterback,

661
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:54,480
Speaker 2: they have the better defense, or at least a defense

662
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 2: that is just as good, and in theory, they probably

663
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 2: have the better offensive play callers well, So I do

664
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:03,800
Speaker 2: like the Browns in this spot.

665
00:32:04,040 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 1: All right. Next game on the slate the Denver Broncos

666
00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 1: four and twelve hosting Los Angeles Chargers at ten and six.

667
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 1: Chargers are three point favorites on the road here against

668
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 1: the Denver Broncos. Forty is the number for this contest

669
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 1: plus one forty five on the Denver money line. Friedman,

670
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 1: any early value in Denver LA for you this week?

671
00:32:21,360 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 2: No, I have this projected at three point twenty five,

672
00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 2: so really nothing to say on that. I mean, I

673
00:32:26,600 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 2: have been tempted all year, as people are probably aware

674
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 2: by the unders in the Denver Broncos games, but I'm

675
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 2: not really even sure I want to look there in

676
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 2: this spot the numbers forty, I have a projected right

677
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 2: around there, So really nothing of value for me in

678
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:41,160
Speaker 2: this game.

679
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:44,000
Speaker 1: Do you see this the same fence I do?

680
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 4: Two teams I've had kind of a hard time getting

681
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:50,040
Speaker 4: a handle on all year, Like every time I want

682
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 4: to go against the Broncos, like last week against the Chiefs,

683
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 4: you know they turn in one of their better performances.

684
00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm not eager to take any Chargers game

685
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 4: at this point. Like the Chargers are to me the

686
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 4: great Jecklin High team of the NFL in twenty twenty two,

687
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,760
Speaker 4: and you know, wouldn't be surprised if that carried into

688
00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 4: the first weekend of twenty twenty three.

689
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:17,840
Speaker 1: Okay, moving on to the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants.

690
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:21,760
Speaker 1: Eagles struggling right now with Gardner Minshew under center. Last

691
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 1: couple of weeks. They are still fourteen point favorites here

692
00:33:24,640 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 1: against the New York Football Giants. New York nine six

693
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 1: and one, the Eagles are thirteen and three. Now forty

694
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 1: two and a half is his number plus six hundred

695
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 1: on the money line. This is an in division game here,

696
00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:39,200
Speaker 1: division rivalry here, a lot to take in. And I

697
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 1: know that the Giants could theoretically just kind of rest

698
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 1: on their laurels a bit, But Fitz, do you think

699
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 1: that's Brian Dabol's style.

700
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:47,680
Speaker 3: I think it is.

701
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:51,080
Speaker 4: I think they're going to basically shut it down for

702
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 4: this game, and they're going against a very motivated Eagles

703
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 4: team playing to keep the number one seed and get

704
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:59,640
Speaker 4: that first round by so it should be a big total.

705
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 4: And two touchdowns seems about right to me. With Jalen

706
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:08,360
Speaker 4: Hurts coming back, I'm maybe a little bit interested. Well

707
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 4: I don't know about interested, but I think there is

708
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 4: maybe just a smidge of value on the over here,

709
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 4: Like I've got it at forty three and yeah, I

710
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 4: mean I think the Philly offense is going to go

711
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 4: all out here and try to put this one away early.

712
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:28,759
Speaker 4: So yeah, like I don't know how much, if at all,

713
00:34:29,640 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 4: the Giants starters are going to play. It wouldn't shock

714
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:34,360
Speaker 4: me if we didn't see Daniel Jones start a quarterback

715
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 4: for the Giants.

716
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:35,399
Speaker 3: In this one.

717
00:34:36,480 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 1: Okay, your thoughts here, Freeman on this contest. Do you

718
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 1: see this the same way as Fitz does that Brian

719
00:34:41,200 --> 00:34:44,719
Speaker 1: debill in the Giants just look ahead to the playoffs

720
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 1: rather than looking ahead two week eighteen.

721
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's probably right, Like they have the

722
00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:54,440
Speaker 2: ability to have a pretty decent, you know, glorified bye

723
00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 2: week here, and I do think that the Eagles will

724
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 2: probably go all out. Jalen Hurts expected to return, and

725
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:05,719
Speaker 2: they're playing for the number one seed, So I don't

726
00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 2: think there's even much of an idea of like, Okay,

727
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:10,360
Speaker 2: they play their starters in the first half or the

728
00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:12,719
Speaker 2: first three quarters or whatever it is, and then they

729
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,800
Speaker 2: get a decent lead and then they bench those guys,

730
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 2: Like those guys will have rest the week after, so

731
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:22,360
Speaker 2: I think they probably play the full game. But I

732
00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:24,720
Speaker 2: don't know, Like there is still something about the Giants,

733
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:27,440
Speaker 2: like Tyrod Taylor is the backup quarterback, Like he's one

734
00:35:27,480 --> 00:35:30,439
Speaker 2: of the better backups in the league. He historically does

735
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 2: well as an underdog, Like fourteen points is a lot

736
00:35:34,080 --> 00:35:37,359
Speaker 2: of points even given this situation, you know, like a

737
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 2: low scoring game in January.

738
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:42,040
Speaker 1: Like, I agree, I feel like it's too much.

739
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:44,239
Speaker 2: It feels like a little bit too much. And that's

740
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 2: even with me trying to adjust for the likelihood that

741
00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 2: the Giants rest a lot of players. So I haven't

742
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:54,319
Speaker 2: bet it, but for me it would be Giants are

743
00:35:54,360 --> 00:35:55,759
Speaker 2: pass all right.

744
00:35:55,800 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 1: The Rams and Seattle Seahawks are going to lock up

745
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:00,799
Speaker 1: in Seattle. Six and a half point favorites the Seahawks

746
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:03,880
Speaker 1: at home here against the Los Angeles Rams. The number

747
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:05,360
Speaker 1: for this game is forty one and a half plus

748
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:07,520
Speaker 1: two forty on the money line. Uh, Friedman, what do

749
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:09,600
Speaker 1: you see in this game? Here? With Seattle Seahawks got

750
00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:11,400
Speaker 1: back on track this past weekend with a big win

751
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:12,360
Speaker 1: against the Jets.

752
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 2: I like the Rams in this spot. I haven't bet it,

753
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:18,719
Speaker 2: but my number points towards the Rams six and a half.

754
00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:21,239
Speaker 2: I have it at five and a half, so a

755
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 2: little bit of value there, and six is increasingly more

756
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:27,480
Speaker 2: of a key number in today's NFL, so I think

757
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 2: there is some value there. But again we have the

758
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:34,640
Speaker 2: spot of like differing differing motivations. But the Rams have

759
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,440
Speaker 2: been dead for weeks and they still haven't sort of

760
00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:40,279
Speaker 2: rolled over and died. You know, They've actually still been

761
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 2: playing pretty tough. Uh. And you know, whether that's you know,

762
00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,400
Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield, Sean McVay, whatever it is. You know, I

763
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,440
Speaker 2: think they're going to be playing pretty tough and for

764
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:52,319
Speaker 2: them to be able to, uh, in theory, maybe kind

765
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 2: of get a win in the last week of the

766
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 2: season and you know, keep the Seahawks from getting into

767
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:58,800
Speaker 2: the playoffs, I think that's something that they would probably

768
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 2: like to do. So I think they probably play this,

769
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:02,919
Speaker 2: you know, as if it's a real game for them,

770
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 2: and if that's the case, six and a half is

771
00:37:05,840 --> 00:37:06,320
Speaker 2: too much.

772
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:09,160
Speaker 1: This is six and a half too much in your opinion, Tupet.

773
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:11,080
Speaker 3: I think it's about spot on.

774
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 4: And as much as the Seahawks have been kind of

775
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:19,280
Speaker 4: a pleasant surprise this season and still have this chance

776
00:37:19,320 --> 00:37:22,840
Speaker 4: to get into the playoffs, like, I don't totally trust

777
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:27,439
Speaker 4: them in a game with a taller number. And yeah,

778
00:37:27,480 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 4: I mean the Rams kind of let me down last

779
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:34,319
Speaker 4: week after they demolished the Broncos on Christmas Day. I

780
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:36,279
Speaker 4: thought they could maybe hang with the Chargers and they

781
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:40,399
Speaker 4: could not. Although they didn't they didn't totally roll over

782
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 4: in that game, but like not a good result obviously,

783
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:47,400
Speaker 4: losing by three touchdowns. Yeah, Like, I just like I

784
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:49,839
Speaker 4: can't lay this big a number with the Seahawks.

785
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:54,319
Speaker 3: I just can't with a Sean McVay team on the

786
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:54,879
Speaker 3: other side.

787
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 4: And I agree with Friedman that I'm sure the Rams

788
00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:01,719
Speaker 4: would love to derail the Seahawks playoffs hoped in this

789
00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 4: one and going into the offseason feeling good about themselves.

790
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:06,680
Speaker 4: So yeah, I don't really want to touch this, and

791
00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:08,479
Speaker 4: I don't see much value on the Tontal either.

792
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:11,319
Speaker 1: The forty nine ers feel pretty good about themselves. At

793
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 1: twelve and four, they are fourteen point favorites against the

794
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:17,160
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals at home here in San fran Forty is

795
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:18,840
Speaker 1: the number for this one, plus six hundred on the

796
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:23,440
Speaker 1: money line for Arizona. Big underdogs here Arizona is. I

797
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 1: know we're gonna probably hear a fun Cliff Kingsbury nugget

798
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:28,120
Speaker 1: at some point here from Friedman. I don't know if

799
00:38:28,120 --> 00:38:30,520
Speaker 1: he's still got any left in the tank, But look

800
00:38:30,520 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 1: at this point when it comes to the San Francisco

801
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 1: forty nine Ers, like brock Birdy has gotten it done.

802
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:37,440
Speaker 1: The forty nine ers have gotten it done. They were

803
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:40,440
Speaker 1: challenged a little last week. Maybe they were not taking

804
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders as seriously as they should have.

805
00:38:43,080 --> 00:38:45,279
Speaker 1: And it's a good lesson here for this week. But

806
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:48,400
Speaker 1: what are your thoughts here? Again, similar situation where you're

807
00:38:48,440 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 1: looking at a big number here at fourteen. Do you

808
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 1: think that's too big?

809
00:38:53,200 --> 00:38:56,520
Speaker 2: Yeah? This is historically like the spot where you would

810
00:38:56,520 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 2: want to bet Cliff Kingsbury as a road dog.

811
00:38:59,280 --> 00:38:59,839
Speaker 3: He's just been.

812
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 1: Great.

813
00:39:01,640 --> 00:39:04,080
Speaker 2: He's been great in that spot. That said, they're starting

814
00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 2: David Blau and I'm still not sure if I'm pronouncing

815
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:09,279
Speaker 2: his last name right, which is the sign of how

816
00:39:09,360 --> 00:39:12,440
Speaker 2: inconsequential he is in the landscape of the NFL. So

817
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:17,720
Speaker 2: I know I'm not betting on the Cardinals in this spot.

818
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:20,880
Speaker 2: I had this projected at fourteen point twenty five, so

819
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 2: I think we're basically right where this number should be.

820
00:39:23,600 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 2: It's like fourteen is a large number at this point

821
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 2: in the season, especially going against a divisional opponent, but

822
00:39:29,560 --> 00:39:30,720
Speaker 2: I think it should be fourteen.

823
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:33,399
Speaker 1: Pat, do you think it should be fourteen as well?

824
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:36,240
Speaker 3: I do. I think the numbers are kind of spot

825
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:36,600
Speaker 3: on here.

826
00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:39,280
Speaker 4: I don't see any value, and I just generally don't

827
00:39:39,360 --> 00:39:42,560
Speaker 4: like playing this sort of a game, you know, with

828
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:44,280
Speaker 4: a really good team.

829
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:45,720
Speaker 3: With something to play from the playoffs.

830
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:47,799
Speaker 4: And at the Cardinals, I don't know, maybe they show up,

831
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 4: maybe they don't.

832
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:51,160
Speaker 3: David Blow actually looked pretty good last week. He did it.

833
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:53,600
Speaker 4: I gotta give it to him, you know, like can

834
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 4: he man? When I saw that guy play at Purdue,

835
00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 4: I never would have guessed that he would have been

836
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 4: in the NFL carving out a career a backup, but he.

837
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:03,359
Speaker 3: Actually did play reasonably.

838
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:04,839
Speaker 1: Well a couple of thanksgivings ago. I mean, he could

839
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:07,520
Speaker 1: bet Kenny Dolladay for that big contract that he gave

840
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:09,200
Speaker 1: him by slinging the football to him on that Turkey

841
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 1: Day a couple of years ago.

842
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:13,399
Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly like he made. He made Kenny Galladay look like.

843
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 1: A David Blow really yeah.

844
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 3: Yeah.

845
00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:18,359
Speaker 4: And it was like over It wasn't just one game,

846
00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 4: it was like over a four week stretch.

847
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:22,320
Speaker 3: So maybe David Wow isn't as bad as we think.

848
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:27,959
Speaker 4: But still I'm not interested in Bettoncliffe Kingsbury to cover here, all.

849
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 1: Right, the last two here we have on the slate.

850
00:40:30,560 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 1: We've got the Dallas Cowboys and the Washington Commanders. Cowboys

851
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:35,919
Speaker 1: twelve and four, the Washington Commanders seven eight and one.

852
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:39,160
Speaker 1: The Commanders are four point home underdogs in this one.

853
00:40:39,200 --> 00:40:41,480
Speaker 1: Forty one and a half is the number you got

854
00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:44,480
Speaker 1: plus one seventy on the Washington side of this football game, Pat,

855
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:47,839
Speaker 1: do you see any early value in Cowboys Commanders?

856
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:48,239
Speaker 3: Oh?

857
00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:50,719
Speaker 4: Man, I'm anxious to see what Friedman says about this game,

858
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 4: because I feel like there's a little bit of value.

859
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 3: On the Cowboys here. I feel like it should be

860
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 3: four and a half.

861
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:58,360
Speaker 4: But at the same time, this Washington defense, now that

862
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 4: they've got Chase Young back and unleash this Chase Young,

863
00:41:02,840 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 4: Montes sweat Jonathan Allen trio of Terror, Like, that's kind

864
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 4: of a scary group to bet against or bet overs on.

865
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:18,120
Speaker 4: So yeah, I mean, like, I think Dallas should win

866
00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 4: this game by more than three and a half, But

867
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:22,840
Speaker 4: I don't know if I have the right instinct on

868
00:41:22,920 --> 00:41:23,400
Speaker 4: that one.

869
00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 1: Friedman, what's your instinct when it comes to Cowboys Commanders?

870
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:28,880
Speaker 3: I'm I'm wrong.

871
00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:31,880
Speaker 2: I will say I had this at seven point two

872
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:36,799
Speaker 2: five early in the week and minus six was the

873
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:39,799
Speaker 2: number that has opened at and it's moved against me.

874
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:41,799
Speaker 2: You know, moved from minus six to minus four. So

875
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:46,839
Speaker 2: my instincts are wrong in this spot. But I will

876
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 2: say I don't know. I do not bet the Commanders,

877
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:55,440
Speaker 2: I do not trust them in this spot. Here Carson

878
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:58,439
Speaker 2: Wentz looked really bad. They have a head coach who

879
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:01,400
Speaker 2: didn't understand the lands of oh hey, I could be

880
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:05,200
Speaker 2: eliminated from the playoffs this week. And the Cowboys historically,

881
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 2: even when they've had nothing to play for, or when

882
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:12,399
Speaker 2: they've had incentive to rest players in the final week

883
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 2: of the season, they've still gone out there and played

884
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 2: tough because Jerry Jones like once got burned by resting players,

885
00:42:18,680 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 2: or he thinks he got burned by resting players in

886
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:22,520
Speaker 2: the final week of the season, and he doesn't want

887
00:42:22,560 --> 00:42:25,360
Speaker 2: to be in that situation again. And like they're theoretically

888
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 2: still live for the number one seed. They're playing at

889
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:30,399
Speaker 2: the exact same time as the Eagles, so like they're

890
00:42:30,400 --> 00:42:32,359
Speaker 2: going to go out there and try to win. So

891
00:42:32,920 --> 00:42:35,840
Speaker 2: you have one team that I think is actually pretty decent.

892
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:37,840
Speaker 2: The Cowboys are one of the top five teams in

893
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:42,120
Speaker 2: the league going against a Commander's offense that I think,

894
00:42:42,280 --> 00:42:47,359
Speaker 2: with Carson Wentz at quarterback, is woefully undermanned. So I'm

895
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 2: on the Cowboys here, but the market has moved against me.

896
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:52,880
Speaker 1: Last, but certainly not least the Green Bay Packers eight

897
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 1: and eight the Detroit Lions eight and eight. This one's

898
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:56,719
Speaker 1: in green Bay. The Packers are four and a half

899
00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 1: point favorites. Four to nine and a half is the number

900
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 1: plus one eighty five on the money line. Freedom is

901
00:43:01,480 --> 00:43:03,840
Speaker 1: already let down after last week here for the Packers,

902
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:08,920
Speaker 1: after a huge emotional win for them, they better take

903
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:10,759
Speaker 1: the Lion. Seriously, it feels like and we all know

904
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:13,399
Speaker 1: Jared Goff certainly not the same guy on the road

905
00:43:13,560 --> 00:43:15,239
Speaker 1: in any elements. I don't know if the elements are

906
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 1: for this game quite yet, but it's four and a

907
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 1: half a comfortable number here where you think maybe the

908
00:43:20,120 --> 00:43:22,959
Speaker 1: Packers aren't getting enough credit or are they getting too much.

909
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:25,240
Speaker 2: I think four and a half is the right number.

910
00:43:25,320 --> 00:43:27,880
Speaker 2: I have it at four point two five. But I

911
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:30,799
Speaker 2: gotta say, like I am very torn on this game.

912
00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 2: Part of me really likes the idea of betting Dan

913
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,319
Speaker 2: Campbell and like it must win spot as a road

914
00:43:36,440 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 2: underdog is like yes, like I want to bet that.

915
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:42,920
Speaker 2: At the same time, I love Aaron Rodgers at Lambeaufield.

916
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 2: You know, like that's that's the time to bet on him.

917
00:43:45,560 --> 00:43:49,200
Speaker 2: Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Aaron Rodgers Indivision crushes in both

918
00:43:49,200 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 2: of those spots, and so this is like the Aaron

919
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:53,600
Speaker 2: Rodgers spot where you'd want to bet on him. So

920
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:57,400
Speaker 2: I'm torn just in terms of like trends and like desires,

921
00:43:57,440 --> 00:43:59,799
Speaker 2: and the projection is right on. So I think this

922
00:43:59,880 --> 00:44:01,839
Speaker 2: is probably the right number. But I don't think there's

923
00:44:01,840 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 2: a letdown for the Packers if anything. I think like

924
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 2: this is what they've been building towards, Like they had

925
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:08,920
Speaker 2: it circle, they had it mapped out on the calendar.

926
00:44:08,960 --> 00:44:11,759
Speaker 2: If all these things play out, if like we can

927
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:16,480
Speaker 2: control our destiny with three straight wins, and uh yeah,

928
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 2: I don't think there's a letdown at all. If anything,

929
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:20,879
Speaker 2: I think it's like momentum building and they go out

930
00:44:20,920 --> 00:44:22,640
Speaker 2: and they win by twenty points.

931
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:25,440
Speaker 1: Fits We've built all the way up to this game

932
00:44:25,520 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 1: and this moment is the moment too big for the

933
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:30,040
Speaker 1: Packers or are they hitting their stride at just the

934
00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:30,640
Speaker 1: right time.

935
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:37,200
Speaker 4: Yeah. So, to address a point Friedman made, I think

936
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:40,840
Speaker 4: if you looked back at Aaron Rodgers' record in home

937
00:44:40,880 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 4: games against the Lions. I think against the spread it

938
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:47,799
Speaker 4: it's probably not very good. It seems like, and you know,

939
00:44:47,880 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 4: I have not actually researched this, but based on empirical

940
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:53,759
Speaker 4: evidence of me being a Packers fan, I can tell

941
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:55,840
Speaker 4: you that they often kind of lay an egg and

942
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 4: sleepwalk through these home games against the Lions. But under

943
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:02,600
Speaker 4: most circumstances, it's the Lions coming in with a terrible

944
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:07,239
Speaker 4: record and Packers favored by probably double digits, and you know,

945
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 4: the games in mid October or something like that, so

946
00:45:09,960 --> 00:45:14,320
Speaker 4: different circumstances here. You Joe pointed out that GoF is

947
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:18,000
Speaker 4: a different quarterback away from a home and that's certainly

948
00:45:18,040 --> 00:45:22,000
Speaker 4: the case. And I will say that in any home

949
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 4: game for the Packers in lambeau Field in January, I

950
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:29,280
Speaker 4: will blind bet the under on a forty nine point

951
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:33,680
Speaker 4: total every time. And it's not gonna be arctic conditions

952
00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 4: here in the Upper Midwest this weekend. I think the

953
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:40,080
Speaker 4: game time temperature will be somewhere in the twenties, so

954
00:45:40,120 --> 00:45:43,200
Speaker 4: it's not gonna be frigid. It will be chilly, however,

955
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:45,960
Speaker 4: and I don't think the offenses are necessarily going to

956
00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:50,879
Speaker 4: function at a super high level in those conditions. Man,

957
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:54,000
Speaker 4: Like to me, if I was gonna bet this, I

958
00:45:54,040 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 4: was gonna I would bet Detroit.

959
00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:58,040
Speaker 3: Like I think this is maybe a little too tall

960
00:45:58,120 --> 00:45:59,440
Speaker 3: for the Packers.

961
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:04,239
Speaker 4: And I but yeah, I like the under more than

962
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 4: I like either side here.

963
00:46:05,560 --> 00:46:07,920
Speaker 3: It's confusing to the.

964
00:46:07,840 --> 00:46:09,560
Speaker 1: Stat that might make you feel better. I'm just going

965
00:46:09,640 --> 00:46:12,520
Speaker 1: to throw this straight out at you here at home.

966
00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:17,040
Speaker 1: This year, Jared goff In nine games, twenty three and

967
00:46:17,640 --> 00:46:22,880
Speaker 1: twenty three touchdowns, three interceptions on the road seven games,

968
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:27,120
Speaker 1: just six touchdowns, four interceptions. That is drastic. That is

969
00:46:27,160 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 1: as diference for a defense is starting to play with

970
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:30,640
Speaker 1: a lot of confidence in Green Bay last.

971
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 4: Week they have fixed their defense, which is kind of

972
00:46:34,120 --> 00:46:36,600
Speaker 4: confusing to me that the defense has played a lot

973
00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:40,600
Speaker 4: better without Rashan Gary, who is a phenomenal player, and

974
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:42,600
Speaker 4: somehow they kind of steps up.

975
00:46:42,560 --> 00:46:45,360
Speaker 1: A little physicality. I felt like, did you.

976
00:46:45,360 --> 00:46:49,279
Speaker 4: Feel like, yeah, I mean he's he's been a very

977
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:51,520
Speaker 4: good fine for them as a rookie, but like he

978
00:46:51,640 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 4: is no Rashan Gary.

979
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:55,400
Speaker 3: Rashan Gary agreed it was the physicality.

980
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:57,240
Speaker 1: Even though they took the penalty on that one play

981
00:46:57,239 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 1: where they really should not have body slammed Vin Cook.

982
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:03,319
Speaker 1: The way they did it was almost to me it

983
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:05,840
Speaker 1: felt like an emotional moment where yeah, like the Packers

984
00:47:05,840 --> 00:47:08,520
Speaker 1: needed to show a little bit of that, and that's

985
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:11,360
Speaker 1: been their problem on defense, especially with Gary out, they

986
00:47:11,440 --> 00:47:14,040
Speaker 1: haven't had that. They had it this past weekend, even

987
00:47:14,080 --> 00:47:16,239
Speaker 1: though they took the penalty. It was almost like a

988
00:47:16,239 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 1: penalty you take because you start to get a little

989
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:20,960
Speaker 1: bit more confidence and hey, we're making a physical statement here,

990
00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:22,680
Speaker 1: and the Packers made that statement. I think they're gonna

991
00:47:22,680 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 1: make it here again. I really do. I'm sold on

992
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:27,319
Speaker 1: the Packers now. Can you believe that this is where

993
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:30,359
Speaker 1: we got to in week eighteen? Yeahs better than I thought.

994
00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:33,480
Speaker 4: They were obviously up for the Vikings, and whether they

995
00:47:33,480 --> 00:47:36,040
Speaker 4: can keep that sort of intensity two weeks in a row,

996
00:47:36,600 --> 00:47:40,320
Speaker 4: we'll see. It's gonna be a really fun game, really

997
00:47:40,320 --> 00:47:43,680
Speaker 4: interesting game. But as of now I'm slamming the under

998
00:47:43,680 --> 00:47:46,680
Speaker 4: on this one, not quite as interested in the side.

999
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:50,280
Speaker 1: That's fair enough, It's fair enough, all right, everybody. Thanks

1000
00:47:50,320 --> 00:47:52,879
Speaker 1: for listening to the show today and watching the show

1001
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:56,959
Speaker 1: on the YouTube channel. Obviously, the circumstances of today's show

1002
00:47:57,239 --> 00:48:00,000
Speaker 1: very different than normal. We can only hope and continue

1003
00:48:00,200 --> 00:48:04,920
Speaker 1: for tomorrow. Hamlin's speedy recovery and continue to think about

1004
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:09,520
Speaker 1: not only him as well as his family, his teammates,

1005
00:48:09,600 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 1: and for everybody as well. A bit of humanity last

1006
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:16,399
Speaker 1: night struck everybody very hard, and it was I think

1007
00:48:16,719 --> 00:48:18,760
Speaker 1: a little therapeutic to just sit and talk about football

1008
00:48:18,760 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 1: again for a little while. And we'll continue to monitor

1009
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 1: all these situations here, obviously on our social media platforms

1010
00:48:24,920 --> 00:48:26,840
Speaker 1: as well. Thank you for joining us today for betting

1011
00:48:26,840 --> 00:48:30,360
Speaker 1: pros for Matthew Friedman and Patis Morris. I'm Joe Pizzapia.

1012
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:31,719
Speaker 1: We'll see you next time. Kids,