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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: President Trump is taking this economy in a different direction.

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Speaker 2: He ran on that, he promised it, and now he's delivering.

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Speaker 3: We're in the process of imposing reciprocal tariffs.

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Speaker 4: This is going to hurt our economy before we get

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Speaker 4: to any possible retaliation.

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Speaker 2: The big promise was that he was going to bring

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Speaker 2: down prices and make America affordable again. And everything he's

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Speaker 2: done is the opposite of that.

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Speaker 3: What's Plan B with Trump behaving like he is? And

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Speaker 3: they say, well, at the end of the day, there's

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Speaker 3: no Plan B because there's nobody who can really take

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Speaker 3: the place of the United States.

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Speaker 4: I'm Stephanie Flonds, head of Government Economics at Bloomberg, and

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Speaker 4: this is trump Panomics, the podcast that looks at the

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Speaker 4: economic world of Donald Trump, how he's already shaped the

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Speaker 4: global economy and what on earth is going to happen next.

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Speaker 4: This week, I'm in Hong Kong and it's making me

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Speaker 4: think about how trump Andomics has changed the world for

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Speaker 4: sieging ping in the past twelve months. Donald Trump came

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Speaker 4: into office both times as a president who would stop

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Speaker 4: China quotes free riding on the global trading system had

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Speaker 4: to dial down its heavy dependence on exports and Chi

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Speaker 4: Jinping's plan to dominate all the technologies and industries of

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Speaker 4: the future. But it hasn't worked out like that. China's economy,

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Speaker 4: if anything, is more dependent on exports than ever, with

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Speaker 4: a record trade surplus last year, higher as a share

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Speaker 4: of its economy than it's been in any year since

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Speaker 4: two thousand and eight. And Tonald Trump has even made

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Speaker 4: China's grand technological goals just a bit more attainable, potentially

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Speaker 4: by granting access to advanced semiconductor chips that were off limb.

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Speaker 4: It's under President Trump and President Biden before. Now, the EU,

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Speaker 4: the UK and other so called middle powers are no

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Speaker 4: happier about China's export led economic model than they would

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Speaker 4: have been a year ago. It's actually more aggravating now

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Speaker 4: because China has more than made up for lower exports

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Speaker 4: to the US by exporting more to everybody else. But

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Speaker 4: in these days most of the cars seem to be

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Speaker 4: Chinese evs. But rather than responding to this new China

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Speaker 4: shock with higher trade barriers of their own, these Western

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Speaker 4: leaders in recent weeks have been reaching out to China

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Speaker 4: as a hedge against the shocks coming from the.

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Speaker 3: US visits, shall we So there we go. That's Mark Harney,

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Speaker 3: Prime Minister Canada. He has arrived in China first state visits.

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Speaker 3: Prime Minister Cure Starmer has met with Chinese President's Chooting

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Speaker 3: being in Beijing and calling for a quote more sophisticated relationship.

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Speaker 3: I'm sure Macron is do the meat with China's leader,

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Speaker 3: she dident Ping in the next hour or so, as

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Speaker 3: he begins.

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Speaker 4: A witness Canada's recent trade deal, recent visits by President Macran,

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Speaker 4: the European Commission president and Prime Minister Sekir Starmer. So

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Speaker 4: is Donald Trump's diplomacy handed Shei Jinping the best of

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Speaker 4: all possible worlds for the Middle Kingdom, The capacity to

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Speaker 4: build influence and alliances around the world without changing China's

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Speaker 4: internationally divisive economic model one job, and if so, can

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Speaker 4: this sweet moment of opportunity possibly last? Well? I want

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Speaker 4: to get into this and also just generally take stock

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Speaker 4: of how things look for China and its economy in

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Speaker 4: relation to the rest of the world. Since I am

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Speaker 4: in Hong Kong with the man who runs all of

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Speaker 4: our economics and politics coverage in Asia, our Bloomberg executive

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Speaker 4: editor Dan ten Kate. He also recently published a weekend

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Speaker 4: essay on this very topic entitled an Untethered Trump is

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Speaker 4: Expanding's sphere of influence and from Sydney, Richard McGregor joins us.

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Speaker 4: Richard's a senior fellow at the Loewe Institute and he's

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Speaker 4: been a bureau chief for The Financial Times in Beijing,

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Speaker 4: Shanghai and Washington and the author, most recently of Asia's Reckoning, China,

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Speaker 4: Japan and the Fate of US Power in the Pacific Century.

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Speaker 4: Richard Dan, very nice to have you, id. Dan, you

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Speaker 4: sort of set the stage rather nicely in your essay

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Speaker 4: how the world has moved in Chijingping's direction in a

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Speaker 4: rather unexpected way over the past year or so. So,

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Speaker 4: without regurgitating your entire essay, just give us a flavor

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Speaker 4: of that. Well.

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Speaker 2: I think if you start at the end of the

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Speaker 2: Biden administration October twenty twenty four, you had Rama Manuel,

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Speaker 2: the US envoy to Japan at the time, really rallying

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Speaker 2: the world against economic coersion by China. That was the

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Speaker 2: big issue from Biden the Biden White House to get

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Speaker 2: the allies onside, and they really talked about this a lot.

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Speaker 2: They made China out to be the bad person. Now

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Speaker 2: about eighteen months later, that's completely flipped on its head,

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Speaker 2: where you had the EU actually considering the first use

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Speaker 2: of its new anti coercion tools, not against China but

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Speaker 2: against the US and Trump, and that was in relation

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Speaker 2: to Trump's threats to take Greenland and to raise tariffs

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Speaker 2: on anyone who opposed that. Really, so this upside down

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Speaker 2: type of world. It's kind of stunning just how quickly

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Speaker 2: it all happened. But it goes back to this idea

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Speaker 2: of can you trust the United States? I mean, this

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Speaker 2: is something that the world hadn't even pondered. It was

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Speaker 2: sort of taken as given for many years. And at Davos,

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Speaker 2: which you were there, the Canadian Prime Minister Markcarney's speech

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Speaker 2: was quite striking in that regard where you laid out

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Speaker 2: a world in which you cannoctually say.

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Speaker 1: Us, we're reminded that we live in an era of

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Speaker 1: great power rivalry, so the rules based order is fading,

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Speaker 1: that the strong can do what they can and the

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Speaker 1: weak must suffer what they must.

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Speaker 2: And Carnegie just laid out this idea of middle powers

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Speaker 2: need to band together now and work together otherwise they're

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Speaker 2: going to be on the menu. They're going to be

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Speaker 2: in for lunch, including by the US. And this is

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Speaker 2: a notion that a lot of countries in Asia have

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Speaker 2: done for a long time, balancing the US and China.

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Speaker 2: But it's fairly new for the Allies to get into

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Speaker 2: that world.

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Speaker 4: Just because some people may not be familiar with the

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Speaker 4: anti Coersian instrument. But what you reminded us of in

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Speaker 4: that essay was that that tool that was supposed to

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Speaker 4: be this sort of great deterrent that Europeans had. You know,

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Speaker 4: it's always been very slow for europe to respond to things,

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Speaker 4: but it was going to have this economic equivalent of

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Speaker 4: a nuclear weapon. It it's dispose or that it could

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Speaker 4: just impose very sweeping constraints on countries and would hopefully

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Speaker 4: never be used. And they introduced it in direct response

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Speaker 4: to China's punishment of Lithuania for opening up a Taiwanese

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Speaker 4: representative office and that kind of economic warfare that the

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Speaker 4: Chinese had waged against countries when they did things they

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Speaker 4: didn't like. They were directly trying to respond to that.

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Speaker 4: So as obviously it is ironic that now it seems

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Speaker 4: if you were going to guess the most likely use

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Speaker 4: by Europe of that instrument will not be against China

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Speaker 4: but against the US. Richard, You're sitting in Sydney and

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Speaker 4: you've been looking at the Australian policy as well as

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Speaker 4: being a close watcher of China. As Dan says, we've

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Speaker 4: seen countries kind of play this dance before, and Australia

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Speaker 4: in particular has been maybe ahead of the game in

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Speaker 4: looking to come to a different kind of accommodation with China.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, one of the interesting things you were talking

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Speaker 3: about the EU. It's just been reported in Australia that

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Speaker 3: Missus vander Layan is coming to Australia in about two

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Speaker 3: weeks to sign a free trade agreement with Australia. So classic,

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Speaker 3: you know, middle power sort of agency if you like,

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Speaker 3: looking for alternatives to the US. And it's certainly true

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Speaker 3: that Australia had its own shock, the sort of shock

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Speaker 3: that Canada's filling now at the hands of the United States.

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Speaker 3: We had at the hands of China about five years ago.

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Speaker 3: And in retrospect it was a very good thing for

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Speaker 3: US because it means that the sort of middle power

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Speaker 3: or hyper middle power relations Australia and Japan, Australia and India.

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Speaker 3: Australia and Singapore have all been rapidly intensified and thickened

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Speaker 3: in the past five years. But by the same token,

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Speaker 3: I wouldn't overstate the impact of them. I travel a

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Speaker 3: lot in Southeast Asia and North Asia, and particularly when

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Speaker 3: you go to countries like Japan and Taiwan. I was

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Speaker 3: in Taiwan late last year and you talked to people

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Speaker 3: there and you say to them, all, what's Plan B

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Speaker 3: with Trump behaving like he is? And they say, at

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Speaker 3: the end of the day, there's no Plan B because

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Speaker 3: there's nobody who can really take the place of the

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Speaker 3: United States. And so, yes, we can do things. Middle

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Speaker 3: power agreements are vanity projects, but you can't get around

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Speaker 3: the destabilization of global politics basically wrought by the two

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Speaker 3: superpowers in their own different fashions.

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Speaker 4: And Dan, you were reminding me. One of the most

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Speaker 4: sort of vivid demonstrations of this last year for many

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Speaker 4: people was Moody actually going to China last summer for

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Speaker 4: that summit, and they had previously not had those kind

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Speaker 4: of relations for many years. But how is that translated

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Speaker 4: into actual policies?

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Speaker 2: Dan, India's probably one of the best examples of the

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Speaker 2: incoherency of the Trump administration's foreign policy. For many years,

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Speaker 2: they had quoted India the US multiple administrations quoted India

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Speaker 2: as a counterweight to China, and Trump just sort of

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Speaker 2: blew that up. So when he raised tariffs on India,

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Speaker 2: Mody definitely wanted to send a message to Trump by

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Speaker 2: heading to Beijing. Now we saw the limits of that

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Speaker 2: right away, and in fact, we have a story out

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Speaker 2: that talks about how right around that time, when Mody

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Speaker 2: was in Beijing meeting she and meeting Putin, he was

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Speaker 2: also dispatching his national security advisor to the US to

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Speaker 2: try and men ties with America and come to a deal.

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Speaker 2: Now that took several more months, and they finally cut

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Speaker 2: a trade deal this week. But on my recent trip

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Speaker 2: to Delhi, it was pretty evident that India didn't see

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Speaker 2: China as a major alternative. Yes, they would lean toward

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Speaker 2: Beijing more potentially you would see Buid open a factory,

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Speaker 2: or they would do things that symbolically showed their strategic autonomy.

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Speaker 2: But the message that I was getting, and that was

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Speaker 2: pretty evident in discussions with officials, was that they still

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Speaker 2: saw the US as a vital source of capital and

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Speaker 2: technology and just that strategic partner. So this is a

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Speaker 2: challenge that many countries in Asia face, particularly those with

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Speaker 2: border disputes with China. Where you sit right on China's border,

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Speaker 2: you need someone other than China with a big stick,

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Speaker 2: preferably to kind of act as accounterway. So, yes, a

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Speaker 2: lot of countries need to deal with China, will deal

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Speaker 2: with China, but there is a limit to that reproach.

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Speaker 4: Mark and Richard I sort of started off talking about

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Speaker 4: the growth of China's exports last year. Just left on

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Speaker 4: its own, we would have expected to be in a

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Speaker 4: very different place. We would have had lots of talk

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Speaker 4: around the China Shock, around countries needing to protect themselves

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Speaker 4: from the massive sort of flood of exports that's happened

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Speaker 4: in some countries. I would say it's in certain sectors

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Speaker 4: in some countries, it's not all over, and instead we've

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Speaker 4: had the opposite. But if China does continue to be

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Speaker 4: so heavy reliant on exports, is that another reason why

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Speaker 4: it becomes harder and harder for countries to really get

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Speaker 4: close to China.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, you know the premise of this conversation, does Si

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Speaker 3: Jinping have more room to move because of Trump. Absolutely,

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Speaker 3: they're also very good at sort of running the narrative

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Speaker 3: that they're at developing country helping out other developing countries,

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Speaker 3: even though in fact they basically might be pulling up

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Speaker 3: the ladder of industrialization from many countries because they simply

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Speaker 3: can't cope with the surge of exports. But also, very quietly,

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Speaker 3: China is threatening these countries. Don't take action against us.

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Speaker 3: Perhaps we might do what Japan did in the nineteen

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Speaker 3: eighties and have some export restraints and the like. But

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Speaker 3: you know, the Chinese are struggling to turn off the

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Speaker 3: tap because it means a complete remodeling of their domestic economy,

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Speaker 3: and they have struggled to do that, and they don't

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Speaker 3: want to take the decisions to do that. There's a

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Speaker 3: narrative that China is going to take America's place in Asia. Now,

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Speaker 3: let me tell you why that's so fanciful. If you

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Speaker 3: think about the United States, it's a long way from Asia.

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Speaker 3: The US has no territorial disputes in the region, the

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Speaker 3: Asia Pacific region. Leaving aside India, let's look at maritime Asia.

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Speaker 3: China has disputes of a different kind with South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia,

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Speaker 3: the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and I haven't even mentioned Taiwan.

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Speaker 3: So the idea that you know, China moves into, you know,

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Speaker 3: as the new hedgemon and the US disappears into sort

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Speaker 3: of bourgeois decline on the other side of the Pacific

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Speaker 3: doesn't make sense. Plus, China is not a market for

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Speaker 3: finished goods like the US is. China processes goods and

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Speaker 3: send them, sends them out, or makes them all itself,

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Speaker 3: so it simply can't play the role that the US played,

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Speaker 3: which is why the idea that the US might step

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Speaker 3: back in Asia is so destabilizing.

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Speaker 4: The breathing room that we've talked about though, or does

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Speaker 4: it make it easier for Ci Jinping to continue to

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Speaker 4: go extremely slowly in the sort of what they now

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Speaker 4: have as a formal goal, which is to increase the

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Speaker 4: consumption share of the economy, but the measures being taken

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Speaker 4: to achieve that have been pretty small scale.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think Si Jinping's heart is really in

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Speaker 3: that narrative, you know. I think he wants to build

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Speaker 3: the most technologically dominant country. It's more focused on that

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Speaker 3: than he is on lifting the incomes of Chinese and

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Speaker 3: you know, in stilling the economy with the kind of

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Speaker 3: confidence that would lift consumption in the way that is

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Speaker 3: generally talked about. And I think the other interesting point

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Speaker 3: is we're talking about how Shi Jinping has room to

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Speaker 3: move with other Middle powers, other developing countries because of

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Speaker 3: the you know, Trump craziness. But the most interesting thing

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Speaker 3: is that the country that he has most room to

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Speaker 3: move with that people didn't expect is the US. Because

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Speaker 3: Trump is such a on China compared with the rest

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Speaker 3: of the administration and Congress. Their calendar is full for

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Speaker 3: this year. In theory, Trump is going to Beijing in April,

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Speaker 3: she will go to America for APEC and also Washington

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Speaker 3: in October. And if the Chinese can keep Trump on

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Speaker 3: side flattery a few big soybeans deals, this, that and

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Speaker 3: the other, then they get that's the real breathing room

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Speaker 3: for China is keeping the US at bay.

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Speaker 4: You mentioned it in passing Richard that it's not just

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Speaker 4: that they're sending exports, but they're actually taking future development

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Speaker 4: possibilities away from many countries. I mean, that has been

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Speaker 4: one of the striking things about China over the last

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Speaker 4: I think ten or fifteen years, but particularly in the

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Speaker 4: last few years, that even as it's moved into these

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Speaker 4: high tech sectors, and you might have expected it to

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Speaker 4: then be like every other country that's so called kind

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Speaker 4: of flying goose paradigm, you expect them to hand off

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Speaker 4: to other countries for the lower value goods. You've actually

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Speaker 4: had seemingly very committed to the sort of all industry

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Speaker 4: model being able to make everything. All of these other countries,

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Speaker 4: middle countries, but also the African economies they're trying to

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Speaker 4: get onside. I mean that it is a real threat

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Speaker 4: to any kind of future development that they might have had.

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Speaker 3: Yes, and we have still had the flying geese model,

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Speaker 3: but all the geese of Chinese, I'm afraid. So that's

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Speaker 3: a big change. She's stated goal. He's trying to build

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Speaker 3: a self reliant economy in many respects, and I'm sounding

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Speaker 3: rather dramatic here. He's building a war economy, and he

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Speaker 3: talks about a lot about war and the preparedness for war.

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Speaker 3: I'm not saying he's about to go to war, by

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Speaker 3: the way, nor does he want to, but he wants

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Speaker 3: China to be ready for anything that might come his

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Speaker 3: way if there is any kind of conflict over Taiwan.

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Speaker 3: He wants self for lads, and if you're that big

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Speaker 3: an economy, that's really difficult for the rest of the

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Speaker 3: world to absorb.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I had one hundred percent agree there. I think

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Speaker 2: it's the self reliance thing is necessary because she has

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Speaker 2: seen what the US can do. It's seen the financial

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Speaker 2: sanctions that could be put on, how it could restrict

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Speaker 2: certain things. They've been subject to export controls on advanced chips,

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Speaker 2: et cetera, et cetera. So she's goal is to build

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Speaker 2: everything he can and just be in a position where

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Speaker 2: the US can't push him around or deny his ability

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Speaker 2: to maneuver. Even so that in Hong Kong when they

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Speaker 2: were threatening sanctions and she was kind of stuck in

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Speaker 2: a lot of ways.

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Speaker 4: But I mean, one thing they haven't been able to

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Speaker 4: be self reliant on is demand. I mean, they are

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Speaker 4: getting a huge chunk of their demand from the rest

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Speaker 4: of the world, and so you can't afford to have

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Speaker 4: that go away.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that is true, and that's where Trump is helping

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Speaker 2: him to a large degree and trying to is so

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Speaker 2: efficient at manufacturing so many things that it is harder

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Speaker 2: for countries to even step in there. The other piece

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Speaker 2: of it is that, and this is something that officials

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Speaker 2: in Beijing have told me, is that they've learned from

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Speaker 2: the China shock that hit the rest belt in the

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Speaker 2: United States, and so just from an employment perspective, they're

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Speaker 2: very wary of technology going overseas and manufacturing going overseas,

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Speaker 2: and they see this as the foundation of a strong country.

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Speaker 1: You're able to.

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Speaker 2: Make stuff and you could keep people employed. Now whether

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Speaker 2: they keep making money doing that is the question. They're

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Speaker 2: kind of at a point where profit margins are so

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Speaker 2: low that they really do need to figure out how

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Speaker 2: to consolidate and spread the wells and essentially shift to consumption.

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Speaker 2: But as Richard pointed out, the feeling of this war

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Speaker 2: economy is anything could make you a little bit vulnerable

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Speaker 2: if you can make everything. So how they do that.

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Speaker 2: There's just no incentive right now for them to shift

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Speaker 2: until the world really starts to act coherently to cut

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Speaker 2: off demand or to curb demand in the form of

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Speaker 2: tariffs or other trade action. And what Trump is doing

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Speaker 2: is kind of pushing countries to boost relations with China

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Speaker 2: and increase economic tizes rather than go the other direction.

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Speaker 4: I guess. I mean one question that one might have

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Speaker 4: looking at China and some of the very dramatic demographics

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Speaker 4: that it's facing, where you will have a shrinking population

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Speaker 4: over the next decades, rapidly aging population, struggling to get

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Speaker 4: birth rates up even you know, well having gone well

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Speaker 4: past the one child of policy, but actually struggling to

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Speaker 4: get people to have kids. I mean, that doesn't sound

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Speaker 4: like a war economy. It sounds like an economy that

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Speaker 4: needs a lot of things that are domestically based, whether

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Speaker 4: it's you know, social care, health Richard. It just that

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Speaker 4: seems like the one hole in what you've described is

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Speaker 4: that the actual the population is not going to look

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Speaker 4: like a very tough kind of warm angering economy, and

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Speaker 4: it also and will need a lot of this consumption

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Speaker 4: and services that at the moment it's not providing.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's a good question. Certainly, demographics used

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Speaker 3: to provide at an extra point of GDP to China

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Speaker 3: and the eighties and nineties. Now it's the opposite the case,

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Speaker 3: and it's happening much much faster than the Chinese expected.

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Speaker 3: Chi Jinping is a very powerful leader. The one thing

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Speaker 3: he can't do is make women have more babies, and

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Speaker 3: China is facing the same challenge that many other countries,

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Speaker 3: including in Asia, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan facing there. I

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Speaker 3: don't think it's an immediate challenge, though I'm not a

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Speaker 3: fan of the idea that, you know, demography is destiny

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Speaker 3: in this respect. But I think one of the interesting

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Speaker 3: points about that once again that's you know, doesn't get

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Speaker 3: much coverage. Is difficult to write about though, is the

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Speaker 3: point about the services you're talking about aged care? How

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Speaker 3: do you look after more and more elderly people with

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Speaker 3: fewer and fewer workers to support them. And you know,

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Speaker 3: Chinese people are very lightly taxed. Personal income tax is

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Speaker 3: very low. The tax take, federal tax take, central tax

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Speaker 3: take in China is very low. Let me give you

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Speaker 3: one figure. If you look at countries like mine in Australia,

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Speaker 3: I suspect the UK, the US, Europe is much the same.

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Speaker 3: If you look at personal income tax, that provides about

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Speaker 3: thirty forty percent of central government revenue. In China it's

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Speaker 3: about seven percent. So when the government starts to look

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Speaker 3: for extra tax, where are they going to find it.

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Speaker 3: Chinese people are used to not paying much, and they'll

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Speaker 3: be very, very angry. When the state comes to them

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Speaker 3: for more. So I'm not thinking it's so much the

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Speaker 3: fact the fewer people, but it's just the ability to

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Speaker 3: support fewer people in the way the budget operates right now,

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Speaker 3: so that it will be a tremendous challenge.

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Speaker 4: I mean, I'm just looking at the numbers of the

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Speaker 4: medium variant forecast is that the population of China war

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Speaker 4: four by roughly a third over the next fifty years.

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Speaker 3: That's true, but I guess we should be looking out

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Speaker 3: to about twenty thirty five. That's when Ci Jimping. I

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Speaker 3: think that's the real target date for Taiwan. C Jimping

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Speaker 3: is still aiming to be in power by then. He'll

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Speaker 3: be eighty one then, about the same age as Joe

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Speaker 3: Biden in his last year of office. He has excellent doctors.

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Speaker 3: The Chinese leaders have organic farms for their to grow

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Speaker 3: their vegetables. So I think that's why I'm not you

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Speaker 3: absolutely right. It's the you know, the slump in berths

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Speaker 3: in China is quite astounding, but I just figure that's

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Speaker 3: a longer term rather than a near term problem.

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Speaker 4: Fair enough, though, of course it's the Chinese that used

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Speaker 4: to thinking long term famously rather than short term, but

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Speaker 4: we have taken as way off topic, and I before

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Speaker 4: we end, I do want to be looking maybe just

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Speaker 4: to the next twelve months, which is nothing in a

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Speaker 4: view of a long term missed Chinese leader, but for

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Speaker 4: President Trump obviously will be his looking at the midterms.

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Speaker 4: We've already mentioned we're looking at several meetings, three or

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Speaker 4: four meetings potentially between President Trump and she Jinping. First, Dan,

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Speaker 4: how do you think how do you think Shejinping will

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Speaker 4: be looking at the next year and how to kind

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Speaker 4: of build on the kind of unexpected advantages that have

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Speaker 4: accrued from the first year of the Trump administration.

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Speaker 2: I think she, as Richard said, this stability is giving

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Speaker 2: him a window. So he'll want to keep that going

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Speaker 2: to charm Trump when he's over here and see how

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Speaker 2: far he can push things. We do see that the

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Speaker 2: national security restrictions that have tied up the US China

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Speaker 2: economic relationship for the past couple of years, Trump is

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Speaker 2: probably the best bet to roll them back, even if

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Speaker 2: the consensus and DC isn't quite there yet. You could

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Speaker 2: very well see Trump agreeing to allow investments in Chinese

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Speaker 2: TV factories into the US or do other things that

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Speaker 2: would be helpful for she ultimately, as he looks to

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Speaker 2: reduce trade tensions, increase markets for Chinese goods, and just

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Speaker 2: bring stability on the global stage. She has a lot

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Speaker 2: of problems at home, as we've noted. There's the economic

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Speaker 2: problems we didn't talk much, but there's also the military troubles.

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Speaker 2: He just got rid of his top general and most

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Speaker 2: of his top generals over the past twelve months, and

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Speaker 2: he's coming up in a big year. I mean, there's

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Speaker 2: the Party congresses next year. That's a once in five

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Speaker 2: year leadership reshuffle. So there's going to be a lot

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Speaker 2: going on domestically, and the more he can keep things

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Speaker 2: stable around the world, the better it is for him

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Speaker 2: at home. And a big part of that is just

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Speaker 2: keeping US China ties on an even keel.

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Speaker 4: Richard, what's on changing Ping's Bingo kand for twenty six.

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Speaker 3: I think that's right. The big question is whether he

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Speaker 3: can keep Trump at bay and the whole US system

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Speaker 3: at bay, because Trump in some respects has called off

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Speaker 3: the dogs because he's looking for some stability with China,

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Speaker 3: and frankly, he's also was cornered by China over the

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Speaker 3: critical minerals embargoes and he backed off. Remember, every other

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Speaker 3: country prostrated themselves before Trump. China stood up to him,

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Speaker 3: and in fact one in the short term obviously, So

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Speaker 3: I think China is that's a kind of global turning

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Speaker 3: point in some respect. It's a peer to peer competition now.

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Speaker 3: But the contest between these two countries I think is

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Speaker 3: baked into the cake. There's grand structural divide there. It's

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Speaker 3: only a matter of time before they start becoming more

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Speaker 3: competitive strategically, militarily, technologically, and politically. So I've got my

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Speaker 3: eye on how long that lasts for and whether Trump

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Speaker 3: might change his mind, which of course he could do tomorrow.

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Speaker 3: He doesn't really like China, He's just settled with them

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Speaker 3: for the moment. But when does that finish?

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Speaker 4: We will find out my own little predictions for the

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Speaker 4: summit in April that President Trump will threaten to call

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Speaker 4: it off at least once, if not multiple times. It

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Speaker 4: will be a triumph for the US according to Donald Trump.

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Speaker 4: And you can't help thinking China will get something very

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Speaker 4: quietly that it really wanted in the meantime, but there

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Speaker 4: will be very little paperwork attached. They see the small print.

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Speaker 4: Richard McGregor, Dan ten Kate Thank you so much, Thank you,

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Speaker 4: thank you, thanks for listening to trump Andomics from Bloomberg

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Speaker 4: this week in Hong Kong. It was hosted by me

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Speaker 4: Stephanie Flanders. I was joined by Bloomberg Executive editor Dan

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Speaker 4: Teng Kate and Richard McGregor, a senior fellow at the

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Speaker 4: Loewie Institute in Australia. Trump Andomics was produced by Samasadi

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Speaker 4: and Moses and Am, with special thanks to Yang Yang

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Speaker 4: and Naomi Ing and Malcolm Scott. Sound design is by

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Speaker 4: Blake Maples. To help others find the show, please rate

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Speaker 4: and review us highly wherever you listen to podcasts