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Speaker 1: Welcome to Crash Course, a podcast about business, political, and

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Speaker 1: social disruption and what we can learn from it. I'm

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Speaker 1: Tim O'Brien. Today's Crash Course China takes on the world

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Speaker 1: and the US. Consider the numbers. China is home to

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Speaker 1: one point four billion people, about eighteen percent of the

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Speaker 1: planet's total population. Twenty two point three million people live

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Speaker 1: in Shanghai and eleven point seven million in Beijing alone.

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Speaker 1: China has the world's second largest economy and has been

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Speaker 1: on track to eventually overtake the US, although China's recent

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Speaker 1: economic problems may delay that trajectory. Its geographic footprint is vast,

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Speaker 1: covering more than three point six million square miles. China

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Speaker 1: is home to a thriving technology sector that birth such

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Speaker 1: well known giants as ten Cent and Ali Baba, and

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Speaker 1: China's corporate powerhouses collectively spent about two hundred and twenty

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Speaker 1: eight billion dollars on research and development in twenty two

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Speaker 1: twenty two. Over the past forty years, China has lifted

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Speaker 1: eight hundred million people out of poverty, an epic achievement

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Speaker 1: that some analysts consider the biggest reduction in inequality in

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Speaker 1: the modern era. China has also built a formidable military

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Speaker 1: capacity featuring a world class navy, air force, nuclear missiles,

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Speaker 1: and cyber warfare proficiencies. It regards the US as a

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Speaker 1: robust but flabby economic and military competitor, and America as

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Speaker 1: beset by social chaos and individualism so extreme that it

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Speaker 1: undermines civil society. The South China Sea and Taiwan are flashpoints.

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Speaker 1: But China's economic growth may have plateaued and its politics

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Speaker 1: have been so reshaped by President Xijinping that a cult

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Speaker 1: of personality and raw authoritarianism has recast the country's image

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Speaker 1: abroad and its direction at home. Joining me today here

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Speaker 1: in Asia to discuss China's path present in future are

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Speaker 1: two Bloomberg opinion columnists and wizards, Karishma Vaswani, who is

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Speaker 1: a savvy political analyst, and Shulely Wren, who covers markets

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Speaker 1: in China's economy. Welcome to crash course, ladies. Shulely, you

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Speaker 1: grew up in Shanghai. So as someone who's had a

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Speaker 1: foot literally on the ground in China and elsewhere over

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Speaker 1: the years, how do you think about China when you

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Speaker 1: look at its whole trajectory during your own lifetime?

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Speaker 2: So to give you some background, I was born and

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Speaker 2: grew up in Shanghai, and then I left for the

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Speaker 2: United States for university in nineteen ninety six. By the

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Speaker 2: time I was leaving for United States, Shanghai was already

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Speaker 2: morphing into something I couldn't recognize, basically, like new subways

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Speaker 2: and the new hiroads were coming up every year to

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Speaker 2: this day. I was just in Shanghai this month, and

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Speaker 2: what I saw was that, you know, if you are

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Speaker 2: a taxpayer, you will see changes in the city pretty

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Speaker 2: much every year. They're building new pedestrian walkways, and if

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Speaker 2: you go complain about the government civil services, you will

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Speaker 2: get responses immediately. Big cities in China have transformed themselves,

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Speaker 2: and the China model is basically, I build it and

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Speaker 2: the economy will come for you.

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Speaker 1: Like what symbolizes that change most visibly? Is it skyscrapers?

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Speaker 1: Is it the infrastructure? Like what are the most tangible

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Speaker 1: reminders that this incredible change that occurred during your own lifetime?

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Speaker 2: I think it's coming hours. The subway is very very efficient.

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Speaker 2: If we talk about going from the city center to

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Speaker 2: airport express you can take this very fast speed real

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Speaker 2: at the three hundred kilometers an hour, and you can

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Speaker 2: get to the airport in about five six minutes. And

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Speaker 2: that high speed real was actually built when I was

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Speaker 2: still in the US almost twenty years ago, and I

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Speaker 2: find that efficiency is very transformative and glaring to visitors' eyes.

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Speaker 1: Karishma, you were born in Singapore, raised in Indonesia, You've

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Speaker 1: had a vast global experience apart from that, just like truly,

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Speaker 1: when you look at China, what do you think about

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Speaker 1: the last several decades of profound growth and change there?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, just picking up tim on what Schuly

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Speaker 3: was saying. I remember when I was growing up that

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Speaker 3: India and China were almost around the same level, right

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Speaker 3: like forty years ago in terms of how unavailable resources

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Speaker 3: were for people, basic sort of poverty levels, all of that.

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Speaker 3: And it was as a journalist in India when I

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Speaker 3: first went to visit Beijing, and there is always this

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Speaker 3: comparison between China and India, and it's very envious of

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Speaker 3: the achievements that China's been able to make. And I

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Speaker 3: think nothing was more glaringly obvious in the strides that

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Speaker 3: China had made for me at least you talked about

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Speaker 3: the commuters and the subway system truly, but for me.

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Speaker 3: It was the highways, because it was these gigantic highways

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Speaker 3: that stretched out into the distance, huge monolithic structures that

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Speaker 3: really showed the size and scale of the country and

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Speaker 3: what it was able to to achieve and to your

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Speaker 3: point about build it and they will come, it was

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Speaker 3: exactly that. China's now seen around the world as a

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Speaker 3: country that has made remarkable strides, and I think it's

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Speaker 3: really important to remember the fact that when they have

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Speaker 3: had a plan, they have managed to achieve that plan.

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Speaker 3: And that's something that a lot of countries in the

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Speaker 3: region one look up to because they are trying to

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Speaker 3: find an alternative model of economic growth but also a

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Speaker 3: political system. There's been a lot of lecturing from the

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Speaker 3: West to countries out in Asia about how ideologies should be.

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Speaker 3: That democracy is the right way forward. It's not always

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Speaker 3: seen in the most palatable way for a lot of

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Speaker 3: leaders out in this part of the world. But two,

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Speaker 3: because it's actually been an achievement, They've done it. They

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Speaker 3: said they were going to do it, and they've done it.

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Speaker 3: And I think that evidence has helped to solidify the

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Speaker 3: reputation of China as an economic genius in many ways,

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Speaker 3: and that countries in the region have looked up to,

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Speaker 3: and what do.

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Speaker 1: You think China it's elf wants to be if China

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Speaker 1: was a person. This is such a bad way to

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Speaker 1: frame a question, but it's actually useful. I think in

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Speaker 1: this case, who does China want to be accepted?

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Speaker 3: Is the sense that I get, you know, like for

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Speaker 3: the longest time, my impression has been that China consistently

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Speaker 3: and you see this in some of the rhetoric from

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Speaker 3: the Foreign ministry as well, it has a model that

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Speaker 3: it wants to show the world is possible, that it

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Speaker 3: is achievable, and that alternative way of being and of

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Speaker 3: doing politics and of growing your economy is something that

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Speaker 3: should be considered as on par with the United States,

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Speaker 3: if not in some ways superior. And I think what's

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Speaker 3: happened in the last couple of years, particularly under the

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Speaker 3: administration of Chijin Ping, because that's really where it all changed, right,

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Speaker 3: Like I mean, up until that point, there was a

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Speaker 3: sense that China was growing very well, there was engagement,

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Speaker 3: there were concerns about some of the actions out in

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Speaker 3: places like the South China Sea and Taiwan, but not

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Speaker 3: to the extent that you have now. And I think

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Speaker 3: under Xi Jinping. It's become a lot more difficult for

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Speaker 3: the outside world to understand. What are the intentions of

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Speaker 3: this new China? What are the ambitions? Is it a

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Speaker 3: sort of expansive and territorial empire building policy or is

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Speaker 3: it a country that is trying to make itself known

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Speaker 3: and seen on the global stage. And right now a

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Speaker 3: lot of people that I talk to still haven't figured

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Speaker 3: out which of the two it is.

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Speaker 1: So Shuley Karishma said that China just wants to be accepted.

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Speaker 1: And I'm far less sophisticated than both of you on

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Speaker 1: this topic. That would not have been my first goat

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Speaker 1: to description of China. I feel like as an American

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Speaker 1: watching this, but as someone who's trying to be objective

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Speaker 1: beyond just being an American, I also see China as

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Speaker 1: a country that wants to dominate certain aspects of its

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Speaker 1: relationships with commercially and economically and diplomatically with others. You

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Speaker 1: don't have to agree with that, but I think Karishma's

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Speaker 1: introduced to provocative talking point. I wonder what you thought

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Speaker 1: of it.

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Speaker 2: I absolutely agree with the Karishma on that. Like going

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Speaker 2: back to your question about China's identity, Okay, let me

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Speaker 2: step back and say, going back to presenting Pin the politician,

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Speaker 2: the political leader's sense of identity, he sees China as

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Speaker 2: a producer first and then consumer. It's actually a very

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Speaker 2: nineteen sixties mentality and ideology that he grew up with,

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Speaker 2: whereas us it's a consumer based society. The philosophy of

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Speaker 2: governors is very different. Like China basically say, let's do

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Speaker 2: industrial ambition, industrial policy, and then as we get rich,

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Speaker 2: there will be money for the consumers and the workers,

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Speaker 2: whereas US basically says, perhaps that's my wrong impression that

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Speaker 2: a government's job is more or less to do no

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Speaker 2: harm and to let people live, and the consumer society

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Speaker 2: will flourish and will generate demand for new products, etc.

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Speaker 2: So it is an identity issue, and the present sheging

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Speaker 2: Pin basically thinks the world have two ways of economic growth,

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Speaker 2: when on the producer side one on the consumer side.

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Speaker 1: You would say that that entire posture on China's part

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Speaker 1: is about wanting to be accepted.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I mean, if you look at Belt and Row initiative,

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Speaker 2: and he just made a speech in Beijing right with

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Speaker 2: President putting on his site, he basically said that we

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Speaker 2: China are trying to improve the infrastructure, and that's the

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Speaker 2: only economic growth model that he knows of, and he

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Speaker 2: feels that China is doing good to the third world countries.

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Speaker 1: So, Karushimaban, is there a central thing that animates China?

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Speaker 1: Staying on the conversation we just had, like, what is

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Speaker 1: propelling China itself forward in terms of its own goals?

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Speaker 3: Perhaps it's worth looking at this tim from the perspective

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Speaker 3: if I was to ask you that question about the

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Speaker 3: United States, right, what is propelling the United States forward

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Speaker 3: with its own goals? A desire to show that this

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Speaker 3: is a country that is a global leader, a superpower,

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Speaker 3: a military power. And China feels the same way. And

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Speaker 3: I think that sometimes you know, there is an arrogance

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Speaker 3: in the West about the the hierarchy. Right, the US

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Speaker 3: is at the top of the tree, and then everybody

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Speaker 3: else is on the democratic column and on the democratic camp.

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Speaker 3: And so you are our friends, and you belong in

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Speaker 3: the in crowd and in the cool crowd and everybody else. Sorry,

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Speaker 3: don't want you at the party, right. But for China,

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Speaker 3: what it's been able to do is actually achieve a

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Speaker 3: remarkable as I'm repeating myself here. But you know, I

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Speaker 3: don't think we can make that point enough that it's

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Speaker 3: managed to bring, as you said in your introduction, eight

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Speaker 3: hundred million people out of poverty and bring them to

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Speaker 3: a level where they're creating world class companies, the sorts

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Speaker 3: of companies that truly writes about every day, you know,

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Speaker 3: with innovation at a level. The first time I went

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Speaker 3: to China, it was the highways that I remarked on

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Speaker 3: the second time, when I went to Shinjin to interview

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Speaker 3: the boss of Huawei, I was amazed by the fact

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Speaker 3: that everything was you know, facial identification in the subways.

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Speaker 3: You know, the level of technology is really something to

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Speaker 3: remark on. But to go back to that point, right,

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Speaker 3: I think it is worth recognizing that China is trying

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Speaker 3: to showcase its achievements. It wants to be accepted, and

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Speaker 3: when it comes up against the US, that is where

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Speaker 3: the conflict happens. That is where the clash happens. Because

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Speaker 3: I think it's not just the Chinese side that is

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Speaker 3: responsible for that.

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Speaker 1: The US has its own set of issues for sure,

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Speaker 1: especially in the kind of shambalic politically era we're in

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Speaker 1: right now in the United States. Truly how does China

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Speaker 1: think about its own recent history? Obviously, with a country

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Speaker 1: that has had such a rich and storied past, you

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Speaker 1: could say recent history is the last three hundred years,

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Speaker 1: and that's still probably not recent. So I'm sort of

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Speaker 1: thinking of recent like I was going to say post

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Speaker 1: World War two, but I actually think almost postcolonial when

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Speaker 1: she looks at nineteenth century China and twentieth century China,

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Speaker 1: and now, how does he and the people around him

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Speaker 1: think about the arc of that history.

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Speaker 2: I will say that there a little bit passive aggressive,

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Speaker 2: aggressive in the sense that they feel that they were

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Speaker 2: round in the nineteenth century and that China was almost colonialized,

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Speaker 2: and then we have World War Two, the ninteen massacre

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Speaker 2: by the Japanese Army, etc. Passive in the sense that

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Speaker 2: they just feel that China is a huge empire. It

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Speaker 2: has lasted longer than the Ottoman Empire, longer than the

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Speaker 2: Roman Empire, and there is a cultural superiority that the

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Speaker 2: Chinese leadership feels that they can leverage on. For instance,

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Speaker 2: if we talk about the global supply chain, the Chinese

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Speaker 2: workers are stellar. They are the ones who are willing

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Speaker 2: to work nine ninety six. You know from nine am

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Speaker 2: to nine pm for six days a week. They feel

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Speaker 2: that there is a very very strong cultural superiority. Last year,

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Speaker 2: when I was on the reporting trip in Viennam, I

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Speaker 2: spoke to quite a few Chinese entrepreneurs who opened factories

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Speaker 2: in Vietnam, and it was very politically incorrect. They said

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Speaker 2: they prefer to open factories in northern Vietnam because it's

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Speaker 2: culturally closer to Chinese Confucian spot and the people there

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Speaker 2: were harder working in the southern Saigong area. So there

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Speaker 2: is that sense. But sometimes they also get very angry

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Speaker 2: if they feel that they are being slighted by global

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Speaker 2: powers such as the United States. They will think back

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Speaker 2: on the eighteen hundreds, how China was so humiliated by

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Speaker 2: the European and later on by the Japanese powers. So

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Speaker 2: it's kind of that conflict that I see.

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Speaker 3: Just picking up on what Shirley said, because I think

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Speaker 3: it can bring us down, you know, the sort of

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Speaker 3: understanding of why then China, if it's just trying to

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Speaker 3: be accepted or recognized for its achievements, get such a

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Speaker 3: negative reaction in the outside world, right, Why does it

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Speaker 3: have this bad press so to speak? That example that

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Speaker 3: you brought up of the entrepreneurs that you met in Vietnam,

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Speaker 3: and you know the Belton Road projects where Chinese companies

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Speaker 3: go overseas, but they want to bring Chinese labor with them,

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Speaker 3: they want to bring that Chinese expertise. And then these

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Speaker 3: projects that end up becoming vessels in a way for

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Speaker 3: an export of Chinese workers to these countries is then

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Speaker 3: viewed is not something that's beneficial to that country. Rather,

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Speaker 3: it's all going back to the empire. And I'm putting

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Speaker 3: the word empire in quotation marks, and I think that's

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Speaker 3: what China struggles with, right It is a rising superpower.

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Speaker 3: There's no way we can deny that it's here to stay.

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Speaker 3: It's not going anywhere. And I think learning how to

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Speaker 3: manage China, learning how to navigate it is essential for

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Speaker 3: a country like the United States, because Biden has done

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Speaker 3: a remarkable job of this deterrence and integrated deterrence, getting

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Speaker 3: all of the partners in the region to sort of

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Speaker 3: work together on this, recognizing China is this existential sort

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Speaker 3: of conflict that they've got to come up with. But

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Speaker 3: nobody wants a conflict between the US and China, right,

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Speaker 3: Like a lot of the countries in this part of

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Speaker 3: the world and wondering why can't you just sort it

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Speaker 3: out and get along, right.

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Speaker 2: I just want to add one more thing, just like

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Speaker 2: a world Karishma said, we do need to think about

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Speaker 2: what the Chinese leaders are thinking. They are a little

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Speaker 2: bit like people were, like to say, an overconfident in China.

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Speaker 2: But I think the outside were also should think about

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Speaker 2: China being historically insecure. So when is these aggressive gestures

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Speaker 2: from the US, it will overreact. So I think it's

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Speaker 2: very important to tone it down on the western side,

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Speaker 2: on both sides.

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Speaker 1: Actually, we'll probably get into this a little bit more

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Speaker 1: later in the show, but Hong Kong to me, is

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Speaker 1: such an emblematic city state for this very discussion because

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Speaker 1: England turned it into a vassal property. They used it

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Speaker 1: to introduce opium into mainland China. They used it controlled

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Speaker 1: China so they could dominate and try to colonize China.

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Speaker 1: And China has come out of that era and people

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Speaker 1: now criticize China for the way it's pulling Hong Kong

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Speaker 1: back into its own orbit. But I also am sympathetic

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Speaker 1: to the idea that Chinese have that it was never

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Speaker 1: out of our orbit, other people came in and abused

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Speaker 1: it essentially at different points in our history. And I

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Speaker 1: still think you can be critical of the way that

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Speaker 1: China is trying to absorb it now while also respecting

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Speaker 1: I think truly what you just mentioned, that this insecurity

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Speaker 1: China has that's born out of the way the history

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Speaker 1: has played out. You don't have to agree with me

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Speaker 1: about that either, but Hong Kong fascinates me in that regard. Sure.

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Speaker 2: One thing that's interesting about Hong Kong is I live

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Speaker 2: in Hong Kong, and you know the twenty nineteen protests.

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Speaker 2: I spoke to Hong Kong local people, right, but they're

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Speaker 2: ultimately Chinese. Got migrated from the north, and I notice

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Speaker 2: a very strong generational divide. Like say, I speak to

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Speaker 2: like people who are older, like in their sixties or whatever,

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Speaker 2: like my juror mister Ma. He told me, he said,

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Speaker 2: before China has Bruce Lee, now we have Chi Jin Pin.

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Speaker 2: He is actually very patriotic. A lot of old Hong

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Speaker 2: Kong Chinese people are very patriotic, but if you move

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Speaker 2: down to like people in their twenties or even thirties,

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Speaker 2: they prefer British rule, believe it or not. And I

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Speaker 2: think ultimately it's about governors. They see China as being

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Speaker 2: too intrusive. The Chinese way of government is being too intrusive,

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Speaker 2: whereas the British kind of sort of just left them

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Speaker 2: alone and.

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Speaker 1: There was free speech, there was a free press, it

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Speaker 1: was a very creative community. It was authentically international, and

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Speaker 1: there's a real danger now that China is sort of

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Speaker 1: squeezing that out of that kind of Hong Kong.

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Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely, But on the other side, Hong Kong's Chief

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Speaker 2: executive Youngly just had his policy address earlier this week, right,

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Speaker 2: and you can see the Hong Kong governance is changing.

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Speaker 2: They're trying to give you more cash handouts. They're trying

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Speaker 2: to build infrastructure. They're trying to incentivize and stimulate you

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Speaker 2: through money and the buildings and the new artificial islands.

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Speaker 2: You can see the way of a Hong Kong governess

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Speaker 2: is heading towards the Chinese way. And I have to say,

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Speaker 2: like I personally think of Hong Kong, the infrastructure is

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Speaker 2: getting dilapidated. If you go to the Central Business District

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Speaker 2: this summer has been terrible. We can smell switch, you know.

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Speaker 2: But the Hong Kong government much left you alone, and

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Speaker 2: I think they are shifting to the mainland China model.

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Speaker 1: Couragem. I can see that you have some thoughts on

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Speaker 1: that so way in here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think this idea or the framing of you

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Speaker 3: can accept and sort of remark positively on aspects of

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Speaker 3: how China has done things, but also be clear eyed

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Speaker 3: and critical of the way, for example, it's operated in

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Speaker 3: Hong Kong is crucial for our understanding of China. From

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Speaker 3: the Chinese side, it's very clear. We've discussed that why

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Speaker 3: they feel about Hong Kong the way that they do.

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Speaker 3: But from young Hong konger's that I spoke to, just

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Speaker 3: as you mentioned, surely on some of those reporting trips

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Speaker 3: I made there, they do not feel Chinese. They do

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Speaker 3: not feel mainland Chinese, even if they are ethnically Chinese.

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Speaker 3: And I think the fact that a political system in China,

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Speaker 3: this is going to be my sense, is one of

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Speaker 3: the biggest issues going forward for young people who've grown

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Speaker 3: up in that system but no longer feel that they

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Speaker 3: have opportunities the way they saw for their parents. They

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Speaker 3: don't feel that they have the ability to say the

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Speaker 3: things that you know, we talk about a sort of

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Speaker 3: closed system in China, but it's become even more closed

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Speaker 3: now to the extent where you know, somebody says something

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Speaker 3: on Wabo and within minutes it's wiped away, right, And

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Speaker 3: I think it's really important for us to be clear

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Speaker 3: eyed about what is happening there and be able to

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Speaker 3: criticize but also to commend.

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Speaker 1: I would suspect, And it seems evident in the way

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Speaker 1: this has progressed that Chinese government when it sees young

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Speaker 1: Hong Kongers who are saying I like the Hong Kong

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Speaker 1: my parents had, and I want a Hong Kong that's

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Speaker 1: not specifically on the Chinese model, that the Chinese say, well,

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Speaker 1: then go live somewhere else, because this is the model

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Speaker 1: we're going to have. Whether or not you feel romantic

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Speaker 1: about the past, am I you know, misinterpreting them to me?

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Speaker 1: It just seems patently obvious that that's where we're headed.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely the Chinese government, so far head and stop the

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Speaker 2: Hong Kongers from leaving. If you don't like this model,

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Speaker 2: just please go ahead and leave.

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Speaker 3: And I think that's the danger, right because when you

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Speaker 3: look at the way that the mainland has operated in

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Speaker 3: Hong Kong, it is increasingly clear that that is the

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Speaker 3: root that is going to consistently be the way that

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Speaker 3: they approach politics there. There hasn't been a lessening of

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Speaker 3: Beijing's influence in Hong Kong. To the contrary, you see

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Speaker 3: it in every aspect of public life.

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Speaker 1: Precisely because some of the things I cited in the introduction,

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Speaker 1: this incredible economic success that mainland China has had, and

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Speaker 1: its muscularity around its military presence and the way it's

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Speaker 1: asserting itself in the world. They can point to a

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Speaker 1: successful track record as reason for why they want to

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Speaker 1: continue to roll the way they have. Though, and we'll

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Speaker 1: get into this later in the show, there's starting to

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Speaker 1: be a little bit of cracks in the model. On

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Speaker 1: that note, I'm going to take a quick break to

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Speaker 1: hear from one of our sponsors, and then we'll come

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Speaker 1: right back. We're back with karisim of Uswani and Shuley Wren.

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Speaker 1: They're both Bloomberg opinion columnists, and we're talking about China.

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Speaker 1: So surely, what is the secret sauce in China's economic rives?

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Speaker 1: If you were to identify the things that are very

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Speaker 1: specifically Chinese that were key to its growth, that differentiated

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Speaker 1: it from the growth paths that other countries, including the US,

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Speaker 1: has taken. What would those be.

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Speaker 2: I would now say it's the Chinese people. I think

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Speaker 2: that the Chinese Communist Party can be very very efficient,

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Speaker 2: at least in the era when the economic growth was

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Speaker 2: very fast. If there was a directive from the top,

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Speaker 2: it will get executed very quickly. I remember, I mean

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Speaker 2: I saw Chump high transform right, like a highway will

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Speaker 2: be built within just a year. There will be all

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Speaker 2: sorts of lend issues that people don't want to move.

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Speaker 2: What the government would just say, Okay, if you don't

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Speaker 2: want to move, I'm just going to cut off water, electricity,

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Speaker 2: gas and as important you will want to move right,

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Speaker 2: So everything gets built very quickly, whereas places that I've

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Speaker 2: seen in Vietnam, Indonesia, land rights is always an issue,

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Speaker 2: even in like other communist countries. So in that sense,

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Speaker 2: I think the Chinese government is very efficient. If it

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Speaker 2: wants to do something, it will get it done.

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Speaker 1: And it's loaded with talented people. It has the kind

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Speaker 1: of civil service you want. The UK is famous for

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Speaker 1: having a lifelong civil service that tries to be nonpartisan. Singapore,

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Speaker 1: I think, is a great example of a very well

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Speaker 1: compensated civil service that recruits for talent. And I think

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Speaker 1: China has done that at a massive, massive scale, hasn't it.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely? Like if you look at Seisha, I'm hi right,

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Speaker 2: Like the government has an app and then they have

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Speaker 2: also of entries, say like a switch problem, electricity problem.

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Speaker 2: You can click on the entry and then you can

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Speaker 2: leave a comment. Within twenty five hours, somebody will contact

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Speaker 2: you and say, what's your problem, and now don't try

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Speaker 2: to get a fixed winning a week.

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Speaker 1: Wow, So that doesn't happen in the United States. Karishma,

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Speaker 1: what are your thoughts about China's economic rise?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I wonder surely whether you'll agree with this, But

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Speaker 3: to me, you know, it's also the private entrepreneurs. And

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Speaker 3: when you look back at the Ero and China opened

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Speaker 3: up and Dougshaoping, etc. There was a real encouragement of

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Speaker 3: private industry that governments sort of you know, at least

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Speaker 3: to me, it seemed let flourish without too much interference.

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Speaker 3: It only started to get involved when these companies became

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Speaker 3: so big and they started to become more popular, or

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Speaker 3: the CEOs became more popular in the mind space of

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Speaker 3: young people than Sheijin Ping did you know, the sort

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Speaker 3: of jackmasied and ping plash that we can get into later.

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Speaker 3: But the companies themselves grew up in this rather messy

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Speaker 3: and chaotic environment, which then they had to deal with

433
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:40,119
Speaker 3: the problems that were apparent to them. In China, they

434
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 3: had those opportunities, and initially they were servicing that market

435
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:48,160
Speaker 3: by selling products to the United States, but also leveraging

436
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:51,640
Speaker 3: off the vast labor force that they had in the country.

437
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 3: And I think that's also really remarkable. It's the unique

438
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 3: thing that China had that other countries in the region

439
00:23:58,560 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 3: didn't have at the time. The nation of private entrepreneurs,

440
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:05,679
Speaker 3: government efficiency as you point out, and a huge labor force.

441
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 1: And in part, I think China studied the Russian model

442
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:13,119
Speaker 1: and it found it wanting. It was statism, so bureaucratic

443
00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:17,200
Speaker 1: and extreme and corrupt and inefficient, and it didn't really

444
00:24:17,240 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 1: allow for free enterprise. It seems to me that Chinese said,

445
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 1: we can have efficient central planning and an efficient government

446
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:28,920
Speaker 1: plumbing around our economy, but we will also allow people

447
00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:31,879
Speaker 1: to become wealthy, will allow people to own their own property,

448
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,440
Speaker 1: own their own businesses. So it was this unusual hybrid model.

449
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:39,880
Speaker 2: Right absolutely, I mean, I do agree that private entrepreneurship

450
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:42,280
Speaker 2: is very important, and I still think there is a

451
00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 2: lot of animal spirits remaining in China based on my

452
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 2: conversations with entrepreneurs, et cetera. But I think that the

453
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 2: government's role is also very important. Like I think about

454
00:24:51,560 --> 00:24:55,160
Speaker 2: how China got rich. It was world's biggest factory floor, right,

455
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 2: and then to grow rich through manufacturing, you have to

456
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 2: have the high way, the big deep seap ports, and

457
00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 2: the good cargo planes, etc. And the government has built that.

458
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:08,600
Speaker 2: So I think it's a combination.

459
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:13,160
Speaker 1: And Karushima, How has Chinese politics evolved during this time?

460
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 1: During this massive economic boom, we end up at its

461
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 1: peak state with Shijinping, who is now on his third

462
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 1: term he comes into power in twenty twelve. Has the

463
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 1: political architecture in China taken turns that surprise you? Is

464
00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:35,919
Speaker 1: it also strategic or is it more a little bit

465
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 1: of a cult of personality or some of both?

466
00:25:39,000 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 3: Gosha, I think it's really disappointing, actually more than anything else,

467
00:25:42,280 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 3: because in some respects if China had continued down a

468
00:25:45,359 --> 00:25:49,159
Speaker 3: path where you didn't have a Shijinping as commander in

469
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:51,879
Speaker 3: chief for what now looks like life, it would have

470
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 3: still grown economically strong. It would have still, in my view,

471
00:25:55,840 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 3: you get to a point where developing economy reaches a

472
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 3: sort of mature level. These five percent growth rates that

473
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:04,280
Speaker 3: we're seeing now, they're excellent growth rates by any account,

474
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 3: But you could have still had a very rich, profitable,

475
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:11,199
Speaker 3: and thriving China without a Shi Jin pain at the

476
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 3: helm of China. And I often wonder if you'd had

477
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 3: a different kind of leader, somebody who doesn't seem as

478
00:26:17,880 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 3: inclined as Shei jinping is to build this cultive personality

479
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:25,439
Speaker 3: around him, around the idea of what the party should

480
00:26:25,480 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 3: be in public life, in the minds of people. Then

481
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 3: you know what kind of country would that be? Would

482
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 3: that be a nation that would be far more willing

483
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:37,840
Speaker 3: to cooperate and collaborate with the United States? Would it

484
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,800
Speaker 3: have set itself up in this way on a path

485
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 3: of competition but also conflict rather than competition and cooperation.

486
00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 3: And obviously we'll never know, but I do think there

487
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 3: was a real turning point when Xijin Pin came into power.

488
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 1: Talk a little bit more about that, truly, because I

489
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:58,760
Speaker 1: want to talk about some also some specific things she

490
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 1: has done recently are I think revelatory, and we can

491
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 1: get into some of those, But tell me what you

492
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:07,600
Speaker 1: think about the Shi era, for lack of a better term, I.

493
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:12,000
Speaker 2: Think she is pretty much a puritan. He is nothing

494
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 2: like the other Communist political leaders of his era. He

495
00:27:16,440 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 2: doesn't go party drink, you know. I mean. There are

496
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 2: talks of his family's business associations, like in particular his sister,

497
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 2: but he himself seems a little bit of a more

498
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:30,959
Speaker 2: anti materialistic, if I may use the term. He is

499
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:34,679
Speaker 2: more ideologically driven, I think, and he seems to be

500
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:40,040
Speaker 2: genuinely interested in the everlasting dynasty of the Chinese Communist Party.

501
00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 2: I mean, what we hear is that his mother, who's

502
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:46,879
Speaker 2: in her nineties, she's still alive, and despite all the

503
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:50,400
Speaker 2: pursion of his own family, right, his mother is still

504
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 2: a big believer and a very very red heart. So

505
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,800
Speaker 2: the sum perhaps it's just carrying on the family legacy.

506
00:27:57,800 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 1: I think. It was two years ago when Hu Jinta

507
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 1: got publicly embarrassed and escorted out of a major party

508
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 1: meeting in China in front of the country's political leaders.

509
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:12,159
Speaker 1: It seemed very calculated and felt to me at the

510
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:16,679
Speaker 1: time like she signaling a demonstrable break from a past,

511
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:20,160
Speaker 1: a different kind of leadership. More recently, he's been purging

512
00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 1: the military. They say that it's for corruption, that he's

513
00:28:23,880 --> 00:28:26,679
Speaker 1: uncovered corruption, but both of his leading defense ministers had

514
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,879
Speaker 1: very short terms and they were shown the door, most

515
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 1: recently Li Shangfu. And he's been purging obviously, the business class.

516
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 1: Some of the entrepreneurs that Kirishima mentioned earlier who had

517
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:43,360
Speaker 1: been I think symbolic to younger Chinese who wanted to

518
00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:46,160
Speaker 1: get rich, wanted to be creative, wanted to be entrepreneurial,

519
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 1: wanted to have their own companies, have now seen this

520
00:28:48,640 --> 00:28:53,440
Speaker 1: whole class of entrepreneurs sort of defenestrated. What do you

521
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 1: make of all of that?

522
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 2: I think ultimately it goes down to his production first,

523
00:28:59,280 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 2: consumption second ideology. I mean what you see is he's

524
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 2: encouraging industrial tech and he wants to build those little

525
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:10,640
Speaker 2: little deep tech companies that the world's supply chain system

526
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:14,360
Speaker 2: cannot deal without, and they will be always integrated into

527
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:18,000
Speaker 2: the world no matter what happens too politically, consumer tach

528
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 2: he's knocking out. I mean, perhaps it's his own ideas

529
00:29:22,120 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 2: about how an economy can grow, but it's also like,

530
00:29:25,320 --> 00:29:29,640
Speaker 2: if you think about China become a very consumer oriented society,

531
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 2: young people will have their own thoughts, their own ideas,

532
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 2: and will the CCP's dynasty last. They have lasted for

533
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:39,720
Speaker 2: fifty sixty years, but how about much longer another hundred

534
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 2: two hundred. He's thinking about in terms of Chin or

535
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 2: Ming dynasty terms.

536
00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 1: So he's playing long ball and everyone else is playing shirtball.

537
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:52,320
Speaker 2: In fact, he is very sensitive when people these days

538
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 2: talk about the Ming dynasty or Chin dynasty, because China's

539
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 2: censorship thinks people are just making very veal reference to him,

540
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 2: for instance, founding father of Ming dynasty. After he became

541
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 2: the emperor, he basically killed all his comrades. So when

542
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 2: people make these kind of jokes, they will as censored online.

543
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:15,840
Speaker 3: And in fact, a book recently has disappeared from bookshops

544
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 3: in Beijing because it exactly implies the fact that if

545
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 3: a certain kind of emperor proceeds in this way, you

546
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 3: end up having an awful end. But just to the

547
00:30:24,320 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 3: point of why the party or why Shi Jinping would

548
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 3: want ideology to be controlled in this way, I think

549
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 3: it's precisely that that private entrepreneurs and the economy that

550
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 3: you were talking about just now Shirley. Young people felt

551
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 3: like they had a way out of the system, and

552
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 3: when you curtail those opportunities for young people, then the

553
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 3: party becomes the most important thing inside the minds of

554
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 3: people as well. It interferes in every aspect of public

555
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 3: and private life, and I think that's what he is

556
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 3: attempting to do.

557
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 1: By the time this episode heirs, I think Joe Biden

558
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 1: will have already met with Yang Yi, China's foreign minister.

559
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 1: They're scheduled to meet during the time that we were

560
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 1: producing this, so we don't have to be specific about

561
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 1: the outcome of that meeting. But it does feel actually

562
00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 1: significant to me that in this moment where we've got

563
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:23,640
Speaker 1: a lot of geopolitical conflicts Russia and Ukraine, the Gaza

564
00:31:23,640 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 1: Strip has flamed up, and there's been constant talk about

565
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:29,080
Speaker 1: whether or not China wants to invade Taiwan, and if

566
00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 1: it does invade Taiwan, what are the geopolitical knockoff effects

567
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 1: of that. So within an environment like that, the fact

568
00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:39,200
Speaker 1: that Biden is taking a meeting with a senior, the

569
00:31:39,400 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 1: senior Chinese foreign affairs diplomat, it seems significant to me.

570
00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 1: But do you think about it in a different way.

571
00:31:46,080 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 3: No, I think it's extremely significant, and it's the latest

572
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 3: in a series of what I would say are very

573
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 3: significant engagements between the US and China. Shijinping has met

574
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 3: with Kevin Yusom from California. A group of US senators

575
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:04,239
Speaker 3: who were in Beijing also meeting with him. You know,

576
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:07,600
Speaker 3: it's all leading up to what everybody is hoping will

577
00:32:07,600 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 3: be a meeting between chi Jinping and Joe Biden at

578
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 3: APEX in San Francisco. At the same time, though, going

579
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 3: back to that point of how we must be clear

580
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 3: eyed about China and also be willing to criticize when

581
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 3: the time is right, the Chinese Coastguard has been involved

582
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 3: in at least two collisions with two ships from the

583
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 3: Philippine side in the South China Sea, blaming Manila and

584
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:34,160
Speaker 3: the United States for interfering in what Beijing sees as

585
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 3: its own water waste. So, on the one hand, you

586
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 3: see strategic engagement improving, and it's an encouraging sign between

587
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 3: the United States and China. But you know this isn't

588
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 3: going to be solved overnight, right. You know, it's going

589
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:49,920
Speaker 3: to be a situation where Beijing consistently says, this is

590
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 3: our backyard. The thing I think China would want the

591
00:32:52,320 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 3: most is us please leave, please leave from this part

592
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 3: of the world. We'll manage it. And as long as

593
00:32:58,240 --> 00:33:00,600
Speaker 3: you understand that these are our strategic interests so you

594
00:33:00,640 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 3: don't get involved, then we're fine. We can continue to cooperate.

595
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 1: Does that ring true to you too, Shuley?

596
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 2: I think one question we can ask is like, why

597
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:13,800
Speaker 2: is President Chimpin suddenly trying to be friendly with the

598
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 2: United States again? And I think it's because within China

599
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 2: there are a lot of concerns about your political risks.

600
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 2: A lot of Chinese entrepreneurs have told me, they said,

601
00:33:24,840 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 2: if we cannot get along with the world's most powerful country,

602
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 2: the Chinese economy cannot do well and the China has

603
00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 2: no future. And I think presence she needs to address

604
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 2: that kind of very valid concerns in mainland China. I mean,

605
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 2: just given an example, there was news that China was

606
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:46,840
Speaker 2: going to investigate Fox CONT's landues, right and the day after,

607
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 2: China had our Black Monday on the store market. Because

608
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 2: people just say, what you're talking about Taiwan and invasion.

609
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:56,120
Speaker 2: This is very very much on the business people's mind

610
00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 2: and when China is clearly in the recession. Chi Chimpin

611
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 2: has two to somehow tom down that very aggressive or rhetoric.

612
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 1: On that happy note of kumbaya and maybe reprochemomp between

613
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 1: the United States and China. I'm going to take another

614
00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:19,800
Speaker 1: quick break and we'll come right back. We're back with

615
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:23,640
Speaker 1: Karishma Vaswani and Shuly Ren and we're continuing to discuss

616
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:27,799
Speaker 1: the ever fascinating subject of China. Surely you have done

617
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 1: incredible work, original work around China's looming debt problem, and

618
00:34:35,320 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 1: you've really wetted great of gum shoe reporting, looking at

619
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:42,279
Speaker 1: local debt levels, looking at corporate debt levels, looking at

620
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 1: sectors like the real estate industry, where the debt is

621
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 1: suffocating and potentially more systemically dangerous. Obviously, China's economic growth

622
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 1: was fueled by a lot of debt spending, with the

623
00:34:55,520 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 1: idea that it was rational spending. It was spending for

624
00:34:58,320 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 1: the long term, the country could earned back from that debt.

625
00:35:01,880 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 1: It created jobs, it created infrastructure, created new property. But

626
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:08,839
Speaker 1: maybe the accounting for all of that debt wasn't as

627
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 1: clear as it should have been. And you've just written

628
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 1: a series of columns over the last two years, probably

629
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:18,719
Speaker 1: at least laying out for readers and analysts how bad

630
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:23,280
Speaker 1: this could get. How do you think now about China's

631
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:24,320
Speaker 1: debt problem.

632
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 2: So we talked about China building a lot of infrastructure

633
00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 2: and the public good, and I mentioned the high spirial

634
00:35:30,960 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 2: in Shanghai that gets you to the airport in five minutes, right,

635
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:36,959
Speaker 2: and guess how much it costs. The ticket is only

636
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 2: five US dollars and then if you go to the

637
00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,280
Speaker 2: ticket counter you can get an extra twenty percent disco.

638
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 2: That's the problem with China. That's the ultimate problem with

639
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 2: China's step path. So far, the government has built a

640
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 2: lot of beautiful things and the public we enjoy it

641
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 2: very very much. Everyone will enjoy it. But the question is,

642
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:58,120
Speaker 2: as China slows down, who is going to pay for it?

643
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:01,839
Speaker 2: And it's unclear so far. A lot of bund investors

644
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:04,399
Speaker 2: they complain they have been paying for and then they

645
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:06,520
Speaker 2: complain to me why they are the ones that have

646
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:08,440
Speaker 2: been paid for and on the other hand, like it

647
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 2: should be the people who have been paying for So

648
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:14,479
Speaker 2: basically that's the ultimate question. China has buil beautiful things

649
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:16,359
Speaker 2: and how is it going to pay for this?

650
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 1: It has about one hundred and thirty seven billion dollars

651
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 1: in sovereign that it's running its biggest deficits I think

652
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:26,239
Speaker 1: in decades. At this point, how does that get resolved? Like,

653
00:36:26,280 --> 00:36:28,319
Speaker 1: how do you see this getting cleaned up?

654
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 2: I think what needs to happen is that China needs

655
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:35,520
Speaker 2: to have another physical reform. So what happened was that

656
00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 2: in nineteen ninety four, when China was just opening up right,

657
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 2: the government had a tax reform. Basically, the central government

658
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 2: will get most of the tax revenue and then the

659
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 2: local government will do most of the physical spending. That

660
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:50,920
Speaker 2: is not going to work for the local government. So

661
00:36:51,000 --> 00:36:53,920
Speaker 2: what they've been doing the last thirty years is basically

662
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 2: relying on lensales to developers, which propel China's property bubble,

663
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:02,720
Speaker 2: and by borrowing that with this kind of unclear shell

664
00:37:02,880 --> 00:37:07,160
Speaker 2: company's titles. So what will happen is that I think

665
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 2: the central government will have to put on more that

666
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,000
Speaker 2: on its own balance sheet. And by the way, China's

667
00:37:13,000 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 2: Central Bank of People's Bank of China, its balance sheet

668
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 2: is squeaky cling, unlike the federal reserve. So I think

669
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 2: inevitably at this point, unless China is willing to have

670
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 2: local government that blow up, China will have to do

671
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 2: its own quantitative.

672
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:30,880
Speaker 1: Easy Let's switch gears a little bit on that Karishma.

673
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 1: We talked a lot about in this episode China's relationship

674
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:36,320
Speaker 1: with the US. I want to talk about some of

675
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,880
Speaker 1: the other regional players that are equally important in my

676
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 1: mind as the US in terms of the future of

677
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 1: the region, China's place in the region. Let's get the

678
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:47,360
Speaker 1: big wildcard question out of the way first. Do you

679
00:37:47,400 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 1: think China will invade Taiwan.

680
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 3: I don't think it wants to. I think peaceful reunification.

681
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:55,719
Speaker 3: I think we should believe that when China says that

682
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:58,799
Speaker 3: it's serious about that. What it doesn't like is when

683
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:02,360
Speaker 3: the United States get involved. It does not want any

684
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 3: declaration of independence from Taiwanese government political parties. The status

685
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:11,399
Speaker 3: quo would be ideal in the sense that as long

686
00:38:11,440 --> 00:38:15,560
Speaker 3: as Taiwan doesn't declare independence and doesn't make too many noises,

687
00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:18,760
Speaker 3: that makes it far closer to the United States. Beijing would,

688
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:22,279
Speaker 3: I think accept that. So I think that unless it

689
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:25,360
Speaker 3: is pushed to invade Taiwan, it won't do so of

690
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:26,160
Speaker 3: its own volition.

691
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:29,160
Speaker 1: In that same context, I feel like whenever we talk

692
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:32,480
Speaker 1: about Taiwan and excluding the US from the discussion for now,

693
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:35,200
Speaker 1: you also have to talk about Japan, and when I've

694
00:38:35,680 --> 00:38:38,200
Speaker 1: visited the region in the past, I've met with national

695
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:42,400
Speaker 1: security officials within the Japanese government who are very hawkish

696
00:38:42,440 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 1: about the idea, at least that China might invade Taiwan.

697
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:50,680
Speaker 1: I think the Japanese government has obviously started to ramp

698
00:38:50,760 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 1: up their own military spending as a I don't know

699
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:57,279
Speaker 1: if it's a hedge against an invasion, but certainly to

700
00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:00,719
Speaker 1: just be rational about the possibility of a military action.

701
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 1: How do you think about Japan as a player in

702
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 1: the region right now, I think.

703
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:08,759
Speaker 3: That as a hedge to what you're seeing as a

704
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 3: ramp up to military build up in China, they have

705
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:14,080
Speaker 3: to do that. I think it only makes sense to

706
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:17,280
Speaker 3: do that. What Japan's been able to do quite cleverly,

707
00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 3: I think, is be the proxy for the United States

708
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:22,239
Speaker 3: in this part of the world. I know you said, like,

709
00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:24,279
Speaker 3: let's leave the US out, but it's impossible to have

710
00:39:24,320 --> 00:39:27,880
Speaker 3: a discussion about this region without bringing Washington into it.

711
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 3: And I think you can see that, particularly in the

712
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:33,719
Speaker 3: Strategic Alliance of the Quad, because through the Quad, which

713
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:35,640
Speaker 3: is actually a Japanese idea to begin with.

714
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 1: And let's define the quad for our listeners, which is Australia,

715
00:39:39,160 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 1: in the ED, Japan, and the US for countries that

716
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 1: are trying to have an alliance as a bulwark against

717
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 1: Chinese ambitions in the region exactly.

718
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 3: And it's supposed to be a sort of unified like

719
00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:55,279
Speaker 3: minded countries coming together working together to be able to

720
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:57,799
Speaker 3: provide deterrence. And I think that's the key thing, right,

721
00:39:57,840 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 3: how do you provide deterrence, because that's the best way

722
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:03,800
Speaker 3: to avoid conflict, And you're seeing that even with regards

723
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:06,360
Speaker 3: not just to Taiwan, but also the South China Sea.

724
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 3: Japan plays a crucial role in all of that because

725
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:12,520
Speaker 3: it has strategic interests in all of these places. So

726
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 3: when you hear from national security analysts, for instance, in

727
00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 3: the Japanese government that they're worried about Taiwan, I think

728
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:23,879
Speaker 3: it's a big a worry about China's militarization in this

729
00:40:24,040 --> 00:40:25,680
Speaker 3: part of the world. And you know, in the latest

730
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:29,040
Speaker 3: twenty twenty three report, China's Military Power Report that's come

731
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,400
Speaker 3: out of the United States, the US has echoed that

732
00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 3: as well. It is the biggest concern going forward. The

733
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:37,399
Speaker 3: way that the Chinese have built up their militaries, spent

734
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 3: money on submarines, on fighter jets in the region, and

735
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 3: it looks if you don't do anything to combat that

736
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 3: you will be left behind. So it makes sense for

737
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 3: these countries to take the actions that they're doing.

738
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 1: Surely another intriguing country to me in the region, not

739
00:40:54,280 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 1: just for me, I think, but for anyone looking at

740
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:58,799
Speaker 1: all these interesting dynamics going on as India. You've done

741
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:02,280
Speaker 1: a lot of travel in the region, specifically that to Vietnam,

742
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:05,120
Speaker 1: where you sort of looked at other countries in the

743
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 1: regions that are equally entrepreneurial in both their culture and

744
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:13,800
Speaker 1: the execution of policy and business growth. Like China, India

745
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:17,759
Speaker 1: has a very entrepreneurial tradition. It does not have a

746
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,960
Speaker 1: large tradition of an honest and capable civil service. But

747
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 1: China is India rather is in the midst of its

748
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:28,760
Speaker 1: own I think, muscularity and thinking about how it wants

749
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:32,280
Speaker 1: to play a role in the region. Obviously Visa VI Russia,

750
00:41:32,560 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 1: visa VI China, visa viv the United States. How do

751
00:41:35,080 --> 00:41:38,960
Speaker 1: you see the Chinese relationship with India playing out?

752
00:41:39,560 --> 00:41:41,839
Speaker 2: I think there are a lot of Chinese entrepreneurs who

753
00:41:41,840 --> 00:41:45,920
Speaker 2: are genuinely interested in investing India. What they see is

754
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:48,759
Speaker 2: that they're very practical and hard knows people. They don't

755
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 2: care about democracy or whatever. What they see in Ranger

756
00:41:51,640 --> 00:41:54,399
Speaker 2: Modi is basically somebody who's willing to take the China

757
00:41:54,440 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 2: growth model. Produce first and then they will come right

758
00:41:57,800 --> 00:42:00,359
Speaker 2: and then they tell me, oh, you know, is a

759
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:04,120
Speaker 2: really nice new highway between Eli and Mumbaya and they

760
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:08,400
Speaker 2: were modeling at it. So I think on the civilian level,

761
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:12,360
Speaker 2: there is genuine interest in foreign direct investment into India.

762
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:16,360
Speaker 1: Since we're doing geopolitical bingo Karishma, I also want to

763
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 1: talk about Russia and China's relationship with Russia, and particularly

764
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:24,840
Speaker 1: in the context of the Ukraine invasion. It's been hard

765
00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:28,399
Speaker 1: for me watching this to figure out whether or not

766
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:31,239
Speaker 1: China really wants to step onto the world stage and

767
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:36,960
Speaker 1: be an authentic broker of complex diplomatic situations. This has

768
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:40,080
Speaker 1: come up obviously around Gaza. People have wondered whether or

769
00:42:40,120 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 1: not that conflict will kind of compel China to step up.

770
00:42:45,040 --> 00:42:47,840
Speaker 1: But it seems even clearer to me in the Ukraine

771
00:42:47,920 --> 00:42:51,239
Speaker 1: conflict because she has gone out of his way to

772
00:42:51,840 --> 00:42:55,840
Speaker 1: Putin up over the years Russia's leader Vladimir Putin. I

773
00:42:55,880 --> 00:42:59,240
Speaker 1: think Putin has maneuvered to where that relationship on his sleeve.

774
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 1: How do you see China's relationship with Russia evolving and

775
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,960
Speaker 1: does China really want to be a global diplomat or not.

776
00:43:07,680 --> 00:43:10,920
Speaker 3: I think you'll see the relationship with Russia continue to

777
00:43:10,960 --> 00:43:13,239
Speaker 3: grow strong. I think it's interesting in the first days

778
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:17,320
Speaker 3: after the Ukraine invasion, you didn't actually see Beijing jump

779
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:20,319
Speaker 3: to Russia's defense right away. I think it was making

780
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:23,120
Speaker 3: up its mind. And it's the same sort of pattern

781
00:43:23,160 --> 00:43:26,520
Speaker 3: that you've seen post the conflict between Israel and Hamas

782
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:29,560
Speaker 3: and what you're seeing in Gaza. China doesn't jump right

783
00:43:29,600 --> 00:43:32,280
Speaker 3: away to sort of make a decision about how it feels.

784
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:34,239
Speaker 3: I think it's still trying to figure itself out and

785
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:37,400
Speaker 3: figure out what is the foreign policy statement that we

786
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 3: should make about this. And we can get into that

787
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 3: in the second part of this answer. But to go

788
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:45,239
Speaker 3: back to Russia, that relationship serves as a bulwark to

789
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:48,960
Speaker 3: the United States because it makes Beijing feel like it's

790
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:53,040
Speaker 3: got a powerful companion that is going to go up

791
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:56,799
Speaker 3: against the US with it. China on its own is

792
00:43:56,920 --> 00:44:00,719
Speaker 3: in and of itself a strategic concern. A rival competitor

793
00:44:00,760 --> 00:44:04,799
Speaker 3: to the US. China with Russia is even more concerning

794
00:44:05,000 --> 00:44:07,360
Speaker 3: for the United States, so I think it provides it

795
00:44:07,600 --> 00:44:10,000
Speaker 3: a little bit of security. The second part of this

796
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:13,480
Speaker 3: is is China ready to be a global diplomat? And

797
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:15,920
Speaker 3: I think yes, it wants to be, but it doesn't

798
00:44:15,960 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 3: necessarily have the foreign policy infrastructure that other countries have

799
00:44:20,640 --> 00:44:23,720
Speaker 3: had because it hasn't wanted to get its hands messy

800
00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 3: and get involved in some of these geopolitical struggles that

801
00:44:27,200 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 3: you've seen countries like the US do you know, it

802
00:44:29,440 --> 00:44:31,520
Speaker 3: has a long history, obviously with lots of flaws in

803
00:44:31,560 --> 00:44:34,239
Speaker 3: the process. But the problem for China is that on

804
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:36,960
Speaker 3: the one hand, it says it is this rising superpower,

805
00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:39,840
Speaker 3: it is emerging as a global power, but it hasn't

806
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:43,799
Speaker 3: had the experience or the foreign policy capacity to be

807
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:47,880
Speaker 3: able to get involved in complex regional or global issues

808
00:44:48,160 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 3: beyond providing solutions like we should have a two state solution,

809
00:44:51,760 --> 00:44:54,160
Speaker 3: for instance, in the Israeli and Gaza. And I think

810
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 3: that's going to consistently be a problem for China as

811
00:44:57,239 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 3: it tries to navigate this role of global diplomat.

812
00:45:00,160 --> 00:45:03,920
Speaker 1: The future surely you perked up during that little conversation

813
00:45:03,960 --> 00:45:05,799
Speaker 1: I was just having with Kurashima. Tell me your thoughts

814
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:06,759
Speaker 1: on the exact same thing.

815
00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:10,239
Speaker 2: I just think people need to know that Hijinping's Joe

816
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:13,839
Speaker 2: political also over the United States really has taken its

817
00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 2: toll on the Chinese economy. I was just in Shanghai

818
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:19,960
Speaker 2: two weeks ago. You know, when you enter the Pudong, beautiful,

819
00:45:20,080 --> 00:45:23,719
Speaker 2: big put On airport, you don't see international rivals. Now

820
00:45:23,760 --> 00:45:26,880
Speaker 2: we're in Tokyo, there's so many foreigners, Americans, you know,

821
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 2: people from everywhere in the world. And two weeks ago,

822
00:45:29,560 --> 00:45:31,799
Speaker 2: when I was in Shanghai speaking to friends, you know,

823
00:45:31,920 --> 00:45:34,440
Speaker 2: they just say, have you noticed Shanghai has very very

824
00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 2: few foreigners left? And then if you really look carefully,

825
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:40,040
Speaker 2: they're the wrong kind. I was like, what do you

826
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:43,880
Speaker 2: mean they're the wrong kind? They said, they're white Russians. Literally,

827
00:45:43,960 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 2: it's true. Like in Pudon, at the Mandarin Oriental at

828
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:49,000
Speaker 2: Risk Carton, if you look at the elevator, people going

829
00:45:49,160 --> 00:45:51,040
Speaker 2: up and down one sing in a while, you see

830
00:45:51,080 --> 00:45:53,839
Speaker 2: like a foreign face and they speak Russian. A lot

831
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 2: of private entrepreneurs they're very, very concerned about that. I mean,

832
00:45:57,040 --> 00:46:00,080
Speaker 2: I agree with them, Like Shanghai these days feel very

833
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 2: very insulated, like it's all Chinese people and maybe one

834
00:46:03,600 --> 00:46:06,359
Speaker 2: in a thousand that you see a foreigner, and that

835
00:46:06,480 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 2: feels like late nineteen eighties Shamghai, you know, like it's

836
00:46:10,360 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 2: very very different.

837
00:46:12,000 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is an easy segue into the last question,

838
00:46:14,200 --> 00:46:15,440
Speaker 1: and I wanted to ask both of you, but I

839
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:17,600
Speaker 1: always like to ask people at the end of the show,

840
00:46:17,640 --> 00:46:20,360
Speaker 1: since the show is about learning moments and what we

841
00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:24,440
Speaker 1: can learn from epic collisions, what have you learned if

842
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 1: you look at China over the last couple of years

843
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:29,880
Speaker 1: and all of the stuff that has surfaced in the

844
00:46:29,960 --> 00:46:34,280
Speaker 1: economy and in its diplomatic relationships, What have you learned

845
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:36,279
Speaker 1: that you didn't know before? What has been sort of

846
00:46:36,280 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 1: a signal sort of aha for you?

847
00:46:39,040 --> 00:46:43,239
Speaker 2: I think shi Jinping's administration is not as efficient as

848
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:47,640
Speaker 2: the previous administrations, and that China is growing up, but

849
00:46:47,800 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 2: it doesn't know where it wants to go the next.

850
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:53,960
Speaker 3: I think that the world is trying to come to

851
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 3: grips with this new China and the shi Jinping. I

852
00:46:57,640 --> 00:47:01,440
Speaker 3: think for me what really showed me the difference was

853
00:47:01,480 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 3: COVID actually and how China managed COVID under Shijinping was

854
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:08,680
Speaker 3: the turning point, the sort of a ha moment for

855
00:47:08,840 --> 00:47:11,600
Speaker 3: me about what kind of China we were going to

856
00:47:11,640 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 3: see next, Because up until that point we had seen

857
00:47:14,560 --> 00:47:18,240
Speaker 3: Sijinping go out to the Davos's and speak at big

858
00:47:18,239 --> 00:47:22,719
Speaker 3: international conferences that seemed to be implying that he was

859
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:26,359
Speaker 3: going to consistently take China down a route which would

860
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 3: be palatable to the global economy and the sort of

861
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 3: global geopolitical dynamics. But for me, it was COVID that

862
00:47:33,600 --> 00:47:36,200
Speaker 3: sort of made me think, this is something different, the

863
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:38,880
Speaker 3: way that he managed COVID and how China's come out

864
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Speaker 3: of that.

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Speaker 1: We've run out of time, Karishma, will you come back

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Speaker 1: again sometime and converse about all this stuff again?

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Speaker 3: Sure?

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Speaker 1: I would love to. Shulely, thanks for joining us when

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Speaker 1: you come back to Absolutely. Shuly Ren and Karashima Vaswani

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Speaker 1: our Bloomberg Opinion columnists, and you can find their work

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00:47:55,040 --> 00:47:58,240
Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg Opinion website and on the Bloomberg terminal.

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Speaker 1: Here at Crash Course, we believe the collisions can be messy, impressive, challenging, surprising,

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Speaker 1: and always instructive. In today's Crash Course. I learned that

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Speaker 1: my own gloomy outlook about China that a hardening of

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Speaker 1: sides between the US and China may not be as

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00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:21,839
Speaker 1: inevitable as I once thought it was. What did you learn?

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Speaker 1: We'd love to hear from you. You can tweet the

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00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:28,400
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion, handle at Opinion or me at Tim O'Brien

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00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 1: using the hashtag Bloomberg Crash Course. You can also subscribe

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00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 1: to our show wherever you're listening right now and leave

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00:48:35,040 --> 00:48:37,759
Speaker 1: us a review. It helps more people find the show.

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Speaker 1: This episode was produced by the indispensable Anna Maserakas and me.

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00:48:42,960 --> 00:48:46,320
Speaker 1: Our supervising producer is Magnus Hendrickson, and we had editing

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00:48:46,320 --> 00:48:50,280
Speaker 1: help from Sage Bauman, Jeff Grocott, Mike Nize and Christine

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00:48:50,360 --> 00:48:54,160
Speaker 1: Vanden Bilart. Blake Maples does our sound engineering, and our

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Speaker 1: original theme song was composed by Luis Gara. I'm Tim O'Brien.

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Speaker 1: We'll be back next week with another Crash Course