WEBVTT - The AI Arms Race Part One

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<v Speaker 1>Brought to you by Toyota. Let's go places. Welcome to

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<v Speaker 1>Forward Thinking. Hey there, and welcome to Forward Thinking, the

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<v Speaker 1>podcast that looks at the future and says I'm a

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<v Speaker 1>little intellectual someone who knows it all. I'm Jonathan Strickland,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm Joe McCormick, and our other host, Lauren voc

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<v Speaker 1>obamb is not with us today. She is in the

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<v Speaker 1>city of New York, within the state of New York. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>the city of Apples. You were sell what it is

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<v Speaker 1>now according to the I T crowd, you were there

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<v Speaker 1>not long ago. To Joe, yeah, that's right. Uh So

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<v Speaker 1>my co hosts on the other podcast I do here

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<v Speaker 1>Step to blow your mind, Robert Lamb, Christian Saga, and

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<v Speaker 1>I did a live podcast at the Star Trek Mission

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<v Speaker 1>New York convention that was held at the Javits Center.

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<v Speaker 1>That fantastic. I'm so envious that you guys got to

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<v Speaker 1>do that. And then of course Lauren is up there

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<v Speaker 1>with a lot of our crew just kind of exploring

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<v Speaker 1>New York and also taking part in a bunch of

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<v Speaker 1>different activities, including a trivia night. She's having a blast.

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<v Speaker 1>We are having a blast here talking about something that

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<v Speaker 1>could potentially blast us off the face of the planet.

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<v Speaker 1>I knew you were going to make a blast punt

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<v Speaker 1>today to get there. Today we're gonna be talking about

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<v Speaker 1>the potential scenario of an AI arms race. Yeah, and

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<v Speaker 1>this is really going to be a two part series.

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<v Speaker 1>So this first part we're talking mainly about just the

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<v Speaker 1>concept of artificial intelligence, the various definitions that we have

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<v Speaker 1>created to talk about AI. And in our next episode,

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<v Speaker 1>we're really going to dive into some of these various

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<v Speaker 1>scenarios people have proposed that we could see as a

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<v Speaker 1>result of this emerging discipline. And it's funny to call

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<v Speaker 1>an emerging discipline because really, if you look back at

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<v Speaker 1>the history of AI, it's it's more than a century old.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think most people would argue that what what

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<v Speaker 1>the general public would consider artificial intelligence. That's the kind

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<v Speaker 1>of stuff we're just now starting to see kind of

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<v Speaker 1>kind of peek around the corner a little bit. So

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<v Speaker 1>starting that all off, let's start defining artificial intelligence, because

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<v Speaker 1>this is a term that gets used all the time.

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<v Speaker 1>Sometimes it is misused, sometimes liberally misused or misrepresented, and uh,

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<v Speaker 1>to me, it's sort of like virtual reality. It's one

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<v Speaker 1>of those terms that people have heard it, and they

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<v Speaker 1>generally know what it means, but sometimes they have a

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<v Speaker 1>different vision than what was necessarily intended. It means a

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<v Speaker 1>stock image of a sexy robot with a gun, yeah yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>or sometimes a cyborg lady with an ear of corn.

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<v Speaker 1>Ear of corn. You've never seen those, I'm not sure

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<v Speaker 1>the ear of corn, the ear of corn, cyborg lady?

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<v Speaker 1>I uh, I am ashamed to admit I have used

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<v Speaker 1>that image in an in an article for how Stuff

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<v Speaker 1>Works dot com. Uh tangent, And I know we're going

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<v Speaker 1>on a tangent already. Dylan who works here, he actually

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<v Speaker 1>he edits a lot of the podcasts, but he also

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<v Speaker 1>does a lot of photo work, and he held a

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<v Speaker 1>workshop here in the office to talk about the kinds

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<v Speaker 1>of photos that you should and should not use and

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<v Speaker 1>when he starts from stock photo websites in order to

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<v Speaker 1>illustrate your work. And I had to cringe as some

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<v Speaker 1>of the ones he was picking up as ones you

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<v Speaker 1>should not use. I know for a fact I have

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<v Speaker 1>used at least one of the images from that series,

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<v Speaker 1>if not that specific one, then one from that same

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<v Speaker 1>photography series that generated that particular image that he used

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<v Speaker 1>as an example yeah. So if you're ever looking for

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<v Speaker 1>a good belly laugh, go to a stock photo website

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<v Speaker 1>and look up pictures of artificial intelligence or pictures of hacker. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>and so this, this actually tells me that we don't

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<v Speaker 1>need to worry about artificial intelligence. We need to worry

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<v Speaker 1>about just human intelligence first, at least in my case. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>that's not necessarily all that off the money, according to

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<v Speaker 1>some people. So yeah, so how would we define artificial intelligence?

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<v Speaker 1>One really simple way to characterize it would be intelligence

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<v Speaker 1>possessed or performed by machines. But this is already complicated,

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<v Speaker 1>right because you used a word intelligence to define artificial intelligence. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's not that simple because it's there in the

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<v Speaker 1>name artificial intelligence. Now, if it were really just about

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<v Speaker 1>machines meeting some objectively defined criterion of intelligence, there would

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<v Speaker 1>be nothing artificial about it, right. You might just refer

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<v Speaker 1>to as machine intelligence then. Yeah. So that and machine intelligence,

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<v Speaker 1>in fact, is a terminology that many experts writing this

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<v Speaker 1>area seem to prefer. They like it better. But when

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<v Speaker 1>some people use the term artificial intelligence, I think they're

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<v Speaker 1>implying that machines are merely performing some kind of simulation. Generally,

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<v Speaker 1>the simulation of the behavior you're of a human brain, right,

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<v Speaker 1>like the science fiction depiction of artificial intelligence, is a

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<v Speaker 1>robot or computer that thinks, at least on some level,

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<v Speaker 1>similar to the way a human being thinks. Yeah, And

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<v Speaker 1>this does come through in many of the public facing

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<v Speaker 1>criteria for determining what constitutes a successful example of artificial intelligence,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, the so called Turing tests, which we will

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<v Speaker 1>refer to numerous times throughout this and we've talked about

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<v Speaker 1>it on the show before, you've probably heard about it

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<v Speaker 1>from us before. But essentially, a computer program, as it's

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<v Speaker 1>understood today, a computer program is designed to chat back

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<v Speaker 1>and forth with a human via text messages on a

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<v Speaker 1>computer terminal, and ultimately its goal is to trick the

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<v Speaker 1>human into thinking it's not a computer program but another

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<v Speaker 1>live human, right. Essentially the idea of being that you

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<v Speaker 1>are communicating with a series of entities, some of which

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<v Speaker 1>are humans, some of which are computers, and you are

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<v Speaker 1>unable to reliably tell the difference between the two. And

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<v Speaker 1>so the test as conceived today arises out of a

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<v Speaker 1>philosophical concern originally voiced by Alan Turing over essentially our

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<v Speaker 1>inability to tell the difference between a machine that truly

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<v Speaker 1>possesses intelligence and a machine that merely gives the appearance

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<v Speaker 1>of intelligence. Right, we we give people the benefit of

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<v Speaker 1>the doubt that they too are intelligent when we interact

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<v Speaker 1>with them. Correct. Like Joe and I are sitting across

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<v Speaker 1>from one another at a table. We both have microphones

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<v Speaker 1>in front of us. We are interacting, We're having this conversation,

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<v Speaker 1>and Jonathan has no idea that I'm not conscious. Right

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<v Speaker 1>to me, you know you are behaving in a way

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<v Speaker 1>that I would associate with being intelligent. Correct, Like you

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<v Speaker 1>are hearing what I say, you are processing it, you

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<v Speaker 1>are responding with your own thoughts. So to me, that

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<v Speaker 1>is the appearance of intelligence. I know that I am

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<v Speaker 1>intelligent because I have that personal experience. Therefore, I assume

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<v Speaker 1>you also have a personal experience that is similar, if

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<v Speaker 1>not identical, to my own, and you must possess intelligence

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<v Speaker 1>if a computer is able to behave in such a

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<v Speaker 1>way that it also appears to have these these faculties,

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<v Speaker 1>even if you don't know what's going on in the

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<v Speaker 1>back end, Touring would say you should at least extend

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<v Speaker 1>the courtesy to say the machine is intelligent, because you

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<v Speaker 1>would have done the same thing for another human being. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>but I think this all gives a very human gloss

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<v Speaker 1>to the definition of intelligence. Like interpreted like this, intelligence

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<v Speaker 1>sort of seems to mean that property of a conscious

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<v Speaker 1>mind that is possessed by a normally functioning brain of

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<v Speaker 1>an adult Homo sapiens. Yes. In other words, we have

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<v Speaker 1>couched the word intelligence to be a distinctly human type

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<v Speaker 1>of experience, right like that, Like there is if we're

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<v Speaker 1>talking about artificial intelligence and we're framing it in the

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<v Speaker 1>human experience than machine intelligence almost as meaningless. Yeah, and

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<v Speaker 1>so I what I would be on the search for

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<v Speaker 1>is a definition of intelligence that's more kind of an

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<v Speaker 1>objective definition that could apply to any object, including humans

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<v Speaker 1>or machines, depending on what what they could do. So,

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<v Speaker 1>uh so, do we have anything that's like an objective,

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<v Speaker 1>universal definition of intelligence that doesn't just mean acting like

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<v Speaker 1>a human? Might? I came across one that I like

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<v Speaker 1>a lot. I'll see what you think of this, Jonathan.

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<v Speaker 1>So this comes from the systems theorist David Krakauer, and

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<v Speaker 1>he's got definitions of intelligence and of stupidity that I

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<v Speaker 1>think are actually very illuminating. So, according to krak our

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<v Speaker 1>intelligence is finding very simple solutions to complex problems. And

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<v Speaker 1>he gives an example I'd like to read from a

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<v Speaker 1>piece that's published in Nautilus that that he did. So

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<v Speaker 1>he says, quote, let's take a very simple example, and

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<v Speaker 1>the example I'd like to choose is the Rubik's cube.

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<v Speaker 1>If I give you a Rubik's cube and you try

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<v Speaker 1>to solve it just randomly, so is imagining you're just

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<v Speaker 1>turning in all directions until you hope, by random chance,

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<v Speaker 1>you get solved. He continues, it will take many, many lifetimes.

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<v Speaker 1>There are a billion billion solutions to the Rubik's cube.

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<v Speaker 1>That's several lifetimes. That would be ignorance. That would be

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<v Speaker 1>where you just don't know what to do, and so

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<v Speaker 1>you perform essentially at a random level. Stupidity for the

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<v Speaker 1>Rubik's cube is if you just consistently moved and manipulated

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<v Speaker 1>one face. Maybe if I just rotate this one face forever,

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<v Speaker 1>eventually the cube will be solved, and it will never

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<v Speaker 1>be solved, even in infinite time, unlike the random case,

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<v Speaker 1>which it will. Intelligence is a series of rules manipulations

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<v Speaker 1>that will guarantee that you reach a solution in in

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<v Speaker 1>steps or less. So my way of translating this is

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<v Speaker 1>that he's saying intelligence is the ability to come up

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<v Speaker 1>with strategies for improving one's chance of success at a

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<v Speaker 1>given goal. So, in other word, uh, let's say that

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<v Speaker 1>you to even generalize this, to go beyond like the

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<v Speaker 1>Rubek's Cuban say, just a general problem. Let's say that

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<v Speaker 1>you are faced with a problem and you try to

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<v Speaker 1>come up with a solution. It turns out your solution

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't work, so then you adjust, You try a different

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<v Speaker 1>solution to see if that perhaps is more applicable, and

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<v Speaker 1>eventually you hit on it. You get to a point

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<v Speaker 1>it may not be the most elegant, it may not

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<v Speaker 1>be the most efficient, but you finally find a way

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<v Speaker 1>to solve that problem. Whereas the stupidity issue is you

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<v Speaker 1>go with that first attempt, it doesn't work, and you

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<v Speaker 1>just keep going with that same attempt, you do worse

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<v Speaker 1>than random chance. Yes, it ends up almost falling into

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<v Speaker 1>that same definition. As as the idea of insanity, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>doing the same same thing over and over but expecting

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<v Speaker 1>a different result. Uh, same kind of argument. There, the

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<v Speaker 1>idea that that and you could see this easily with robotics, right,

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<v Speaker 1>a robot that all it can do is pick up

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<v Speaker 1>an object and turn it and set it down. And

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<v Speaker 1>that's all I can do. Uh, it's never going to

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<v Speaker 1>be able to solve a problem that doesn't involve picking

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<v Speaker 1>up an object, turning it, and then setting it down.

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<v Speaker 1>And we do see stupidity in robotics. Sometimes sometimes it's necessary,

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<v Speaker 1>right because because the stupid solution, if you're talking about

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<v Speaker 1>something that is always going to be the same, you

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<v Speaker 1>are never going to have any variance from the approach.

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<v Speaker 1>You want a stupid robot, right right? You just wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to do this this three set are rather the series

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<v Speaker 1>of three steps and that's all it does. Oh well,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean if it's that would be if I'm hearing

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<v Speaker 1>you correctly, that I mean, that's a different thing. Like

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<v Speaker 1>a robot can not have any innovative solutions, but it

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<v Speaker 1>can still do its job correctly because it's been programmed

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<v Speaker 1>to do. You could even have a what I mean

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<v Speaker 1>is a stupidly programmed robot hour since where where it

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<v Speaker 1>performs worse than random performance at a task in like

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<v Speaker 1>the example would be the robot that is trying to

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<v Speaker 1>hand you something but instead stabs you. That would sort

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<v Speaker 1>of be stupid robotics. Yes, yes, I would definitely feel

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<v Speaker 1>stupid for using that robot. Uh. Now, moving beyond just

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<v Speaker 1>trying to define what is intelligence, even beyond what is

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<v Speaker 1>artificial intelligence, you start encountering subsets of artificial intelligence. And

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<v Speaker 1>this is where a lot of other confusion comes in,

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<v Speaker 1>and we're gonna be talking about some of these subsets

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<v Speaker 1>in detail. One thing you may have encountered is the

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<v Speaker 1>concept of weak AI versus strong AI. Yeah, and so

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<v Speaker 1>this distinction is sometimes invoked as a philosophical one rather

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<v Speaker 1>than a technological one, and for good reason. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>for one thing, we don't have anything that I think

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<v Speaker 1>approaches the strong AI definition, and so we we can't

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<v Speaker 1>say what the technological distinction is because we haven't achieved it, right,

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<v Speaker 1>But let me explain. So, in the philosophical sense, week

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<v Speaker 1>AI is a machine that can simulate or generate the

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<v Speaker 1>outward appearance of intelligence or quote thinking, and strong AI

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<v Speaker 1>is a machine that is quote actually thinking. So I

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<v Speaker 1>would say this distinction is it's sometimes extended to sort

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<v Speaker 1>of assert that strong AI is conscious, you know, like

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<v Speaker 1>that there's something that's like to be that robot. And

0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:29.760
<v Speaker 1>I do find the debate about whether machines can be

0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:32.800
<v Speaker 1>conscious and whether machines can really think. I do find

0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:35.719
<v Speaker 1>that interesting, but I also think that it's sort of

0:13:35.760 --> 0:13:40.559
<v Speaker 1>a different question than the question of implementing AI technology

0:13:40.600 --> 0:13:44.480
<v Speaker 1>in the real world, because you can't know whether another

0:13:44.559 --> 0:13:48.040
<v Speaker 1>person is conscious. So it's just different than talking about

0:13:48.040 --> 0:13:51.719
<v Speaker 1>strategies for how to create an intelligent machine, right, And

0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:54.520
<v Speaker 1>I see your point, and I agree with it mostly.

0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:58.040
<v Speaker 1>I think that that it's important only in the sense

0:13:58.120 --> 0:14:00.480
<v Speaker 1>that you have a lot of people talking in terms

0:14:00.880 --> 0:14:03.640
<v Speaker 1>of a I that, at least from the way they

0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:07.360
<v Speaker 1>are talking about it, seems to indicate strong AI, this

0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:11.600
<v Speaker 1>idea of machines that are quote unquote actually thinking. Uh.

0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:13.720
<v Speaker 1>And there's a lot of debate on whether or not

0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:16.240
<v Speaker 1>we will ever achieve that. There's some people who don't

0:14:16.240 --> 0:14:18.720
<v Speaker 1>think it's achievable at all. There are others who say, well,

0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:22.880
<v Speaker 1>that seems that seems like it's pretty egotistical to suggest

0:14:23.000 --> 0:14:26.160
<v Speaker 1>that that only are gray matter in our heads is

0:14:26.200 --> 0:14:28.160
<v Speaker 1>capable of this, and that we would never be able

0:14:28.240 --> 0:14:32.560
<v Speaker 1>to achieve this in a machine environment. It may may

0:14:32.600 --> 0:14:35.560
<v Speaker 1>be that it's impractical. Some would say, how would you

0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:39.040
<v Speaker 1>know the difference? And in fact, there are lots of

0:14:39.080 --> 0:14:42.120
<v Speaker 1>different philosophical you know, like thought experiment type things. We

0:14:42.160 --> 0:14:44.200
<v Speaker 1>I think we've even mentioned one in a previous episode.

0:14:44.200 --> 0:14:46.120
<v Speaker 1>Have we ever talked about the Chinese Room. Yeah, we

0:14:46.120 --> 0:14:48.640
<v Speaker 1>did a whole episode on the Chinese Room experiments, all

0:14:48.680 --> 0:14:51.440
<v Speaker 1>about whether machines can think right or are they just

0:14:51.640 --> 0:14:54.760
<v Speaker 1>responding in a way that they've been programmed to respond

0:14:55.000 --> 0:14:57.560
<v Speaker 1>so that it seems like they are thinking, that the

0:14:57.640 --> 0:15:00.800
<v Speaker 1>illusion of thought is there, but there's no actual comprehension

0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:04.840
<v Speaker 1>going on. But I agree that overall that conversation is

0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:08.960
<v Speaker 1>not really relevant to most of what we're concentrating on,

0:15:09.360 --> 0:15:12.480
<v Speaker 1>other than the fact that I think at least some

0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:17.200
<v Speaker 1>of the people will chat about appear to have that

0:15:17.320 --> 0:15:20.960
<v Speaker 1>kind of concept of AI in mind when they're talking

0:15:21.000 --> 0:15:22.960
<v Speaker 1>about well, and to be fair to them, I think

0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:26.160
<v Speaker 1>some people would make a not stupid case like it,

0:15:26.320 --> 0:15:30.760
<v Speaker 1>like an interesting case that these these things we're talking about, consciousness,

0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:35.520
<v Speaker 1>something deep about the very human, distinctly human things we

0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:39.240
<v Speaker 1>think of as thinking and consciousness are actually in some

0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:41.720
<v Speaker 1>way crucial to what we're about to talk about, which

0:15:41.720 --> 0:15:46.480
<v Speaker 1>is general intelligence. But another way we could address the

0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:50.480
<v Speaker 1>idea of week AI. This is sort of different, but

0:15:50.720 --> 0:15:54.240
<v Speaker 1>the same terms are used sometimes UM also known as

0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:57.280
<v Speaker 1>narrow AI. It's the AI that you're already familiar with

0:15:57.400 --> 0:16:02.520
<v Speaker 1>any device or computer program that's mulates some mental ability

0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:06.600
<v Speaker 1>of human beings. So you could argue that facial recognition

0:16:06.640 --> 0:16:10.240
<v Speaker 1>in photographs on a computer is a very specific form

0:16:10.320 --> 0:16:13.720
<v Speaker 1>of narrow AI, or those turing chat bots, you know,

0:16:13.800 --> 0:16:17.120
<v Speaker 1>the inner the programs, or another form of narrow AI.

0:16:17.240 --> 0:16:21.560
<v Speaker 1>We're already surrounded by examples of this kind of thing. Yeah.

0:16:21.560 --> 0:16:24.960
<v Speaker 1>In fact, uh, we see advances in this all the

0:16:25.000 --> 0:16:29.880
<v Speaker 1>time in interesting ways that maybe you weren't necessarily associating

0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:33.640
<v Speaker 1>with artificial intelligence. One great example of this is the

0:16:33.720 --> 0:16:39.480
<v Speaker 1>capture series, where you know captures that that that step

0:16:39.520 --> 0:16:41.120
<v Speaker 1>you need to go through in order to prove you're

0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:45.480
<v Speaker 1>not a robot to various online services. Typically, you know,

0:16:45.520 --> 0:16:48.080
<v Speaker 1>early on it was just you read a word and

0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:50.360
<v Speaker 1>then you had to type in what the word was,

0:16:50.960 --> 0:16:52.920
<v Speaker 1>and or maybe it was just a string of letters

0:16:52.920 --> 0:16:56.200
<v Speaker 1>and numbers, whatever it might be, and then the computer

0:16:56.320 --> 0:16:58.680
<v Speaker 1>would verify that you are, in fact the human being

0:16:58.760 --> 0:17:01.080
<v Speaker 1>and not some sort of autumn aided bought that's just

0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:04.920
<v Speaker 1>trying to spam a service. Then there was a point

0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:10.399
<v Speaker 1>where the object recognition or the text recognition capabilities of

0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:13.560
<v Speaker 1>computers began to improve, and that is one aspect of

0:17:13.640 --> 0:17:17.560
<v Speaker 1>artificial intelligence, the ability to recognize characters and understand what

0:17:17.640 --> 0:17:21.040
<v Speaker 1>they correspond to. And so the captions began to get

0:17:21.040 --> 0:17:25.200
<v Speaker 1>more difficult. They were distorted in weird ways or somewhat

0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:28.480
<v Speaker 1>um covered up by other images in order to fool

0:17:28.960 --> 0:17:33.480
<v Speaker 1>these image recognition programs, which then made the people designing

0:17:33.520 --> 0:17:36.280
<v Speaker 1>the image recognition software go a step further so that

0:17:36.359 --> 0:17:39.680
<v Speaker 1>they could recognize those examples too, And it became back

0:17:39.720 --> 0:17:44.160
<v Speaker 1>and forth between security systems and artificial intelligence. And if

0:17:44.160 --> 0:17:48.359
<v Speaker 1>you read up on the folks behind capture, they said, yeah,

0:17:48.440 --> 0:17:52.200
<v Speaker 1>we were kind of thinking like this, this will help

0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:54.760
<v Speaker 1>services figure out that, you know, the people who are

0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:56.800
<v Speaker 1>trying to use their services are in fact human beings.

0:17:57.119 --> 0:18:00.320
<v Speaker 1>But ultimately we wanted to drive the develop element of

0:18:00.400 --> 0:18:04.120
<v Speaker 1>artificial intelligence. It seems so weird because we often think

0:18:04.119 --> 0:18:08.160
<v Speaker 1>of AI as being this much more broad concept, nothing

0:18:08.280 --> 0:18:11.720
<v Speaker 1>so specific as being able to recognize that this string

0:18:12.000 --> 0:18:15.960
<v Speaker 1>of weird images is in fact a series of letters

0:18:16.000 --> 0:18:19.240
<v Speaker 1>and numbers, but that is wrapped up in the concept

0:18:19.240 --> 0:18:22.440
<v Speaker 1>of artificial intelligence and would be very much an example

0:18:22.440 --> 0:18:25.680
<v Speaker 1>of narrow AI. My favorite example, are the ones that say,

0:18:25.680 --> 0:18:29.040
<v Speaker 1>which of these pictures is not a clown? Right? Five

0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:33.280
<v Speaker 1>clowns and then a pocket watch and a tiger right right,

0:18:33.359 --> 0:18:35.760
<v Speaker 1>I've I've seen those two. Yeah. Where you you get

0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:38.639
<v Speaker 1>like a bank of like nine images and about five

0:18:38.680 --> 0:18:41.320
<v Speaker 1>of them tend to be whatever it is that you're

0:18:41.440 --> 0:18:44.680
<v Speaker 1>supposed to be looking for, or or you get one

0:18:44.720 --> 0:18:47.800
<v Speaker 1>that's really kind of makes you feel stupid, like it says,

0:18:48.640 --> 0:18:51.800
<v Speaker 1>pick the images that have a river in them, and

0:18:51.840 --> 0:18:53.959
<v Speaker 1>you're looking at one you see like a house on

0:18:54.000 --> 0:18:56.720
<v Speaker 1>a shore and you're thinking, all right, is that a river?

0:18:56.840 --> 0:19:02.240
<v Speaker 1>Is that a lake? And does this know the difference? Well,

0:19:02.320 --> 0:19:05.200
<v Speaker 1>regular caption makes me feel stupid. Sometimes I can't see

0:19:05.240 --> 0:19:07.719
<v Speaker 1>what those letters are. Yeah, I I sometimes will go there.

0:19:07.720 --> 0:19:09.919
<v Speaker 1>You know, there's audio ones too, and in fact audio

0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:13.600
<v Speaker 1>capture the same thing, like the idea of getting uh,

0:19:13.720 --> 0:19:17.320
<v Speaker 1>the the voice recognition, the audio recognition that plays into

0:19:17.359 --> 0:19:21.640
<v Speaker 1>artificial intelligence, natural language processing plays into artificial intelligence. All

0:19:21.680 --> 0:19:25.600
<v Speaker 1>of these different things. So really, uh, you know, these

0:19:25.600 --> 0:19:29.520
<v Speaker 1>are all aspects of narrow AI. These are all or

0:19:29.640 --> 0:19:33.760
<v Speaker 1>or rather you know, manifestations of narrow AI. And some

0:19:33.880 --> 0:19:36.080
<v Speaker 1>of them are are better than others. Some of them

0:19:36.119 --> 0:19:39.200
<v Speaker 1>are more accurate than others. Um, some of them are

0:19:39.240 --> 0:19:44.520
<v Speaker 1>further along than others, but it shows how diverse this

0:19:44.720 --> 0:19:47.200
<v Speaker 1>discipline is. Yeah, but at the other end of the

0:19:47.240 --> 0:19:50.240
<v Speaker 1>spectrum from narrow AI, you would get to the main

0:19:50.359 --> 0:19:53.000
<v Speaker 1>concept that we're gonna be talking about in these two episodes,

0:19:53.359 --> 0:19:58.679
<v Speaker 1>which is general AI. Artificial general intelligence often abbreviated a

0:19:58.760 --> 0:20:03.480
<v Speaker 1>g I, and so under some usage, I think sometimes

0:20:03.520 --> 0:20:07.479
<v Speaker 1>some people use the term strong AI to mean this, Right,

0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:10.160
<v Speaker 1>they interchange the two terms to mean the same thing,

0:20:10.200 --> 0:20:13.200
<v Speaker 1>but more accurately. Yeah, what we're trying to talk about

0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:17.000
<v Speaker 1>is artificial general intelligence, and it's the property possessed by

0:20:17.000 --> 0:20:20.240
<v Speaker 1>a machine that can apply intelligence to many or even

0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:24.119
<v Speaker 1>all problems, rather than just one problem or some small

0:20:24.200 --> 0:20:27.840
<v Speaker 1>number of them. And it's more like the diverse and

0:20:27.920 --> 0:20:33.480
<v Speaker 1>adaptable problem solving engine within the complex animal brain, except

0:20:33.640 --> 0:20:38.119
<v Speaker 1>it's going to presumably be free from biological and psychological

0:20:38.200 --> 0:20:41.879
<v Speaker 1>limitations that we have in our human brains and probably

0:20:42.119 --> 0:20:45.520
<v Speaker 1>be able to outperform the human brain most if not all,

0:20:45.640 --> 0:20:48.880
<v Speaker 1>problem solving tasks. So this would be the difference between

0:20:49.560 --> 0:20:53.760
<v Speaker 1>an AI implementation that can recognize a face and go

0:20:53.920 --> 0:20:56.359
<v Speaker 1>beyond to one that not only can recognize a face,

0:20:56.480 --> 0:20:59.840
<v Speaker 1>but also know the context of what's going on, also

0:21:00.119 --> 0:21:04.600
<v Speaker 1>even respond to questions that are related to the the

0:21:04.800 --> 0:21:08.719
<v Speaker 1>picture and ones that go beyond like tangential to the pictures.

0:21:08.760 --> 0:21:12.480
<v Speaker 1>So you might say, uh, what is this a picture

0:21:12.480 --> 0:21:14.280
<v Speaker 1>of it? It's a crowd of people, And the answer

0:21:14.359 --> 0:21:16.399
<v Speaker 1>might be, well, that is as a group of human beings,

0:21:16.920 --> 0:21:19.920
<v Speaker 1>all right, well how many how many of them are

0:21:20.040 --> 0:21:22.240
<v Speaker 1>wearing blue T shirts? And it could tell you, and

0:21:22.240 --> 0:21:26.280
<v Speaker 1>then you could start asking more questions that that start

0:21:26.320 --> 0:21:29.439
<v Speaker 1>building off of that. It would continue to answer those,

0:21:29.960 --> 0:21:34.560
<v Speaker 1>and it goes beyond just a single uh, a single

0:21:34.640 --> 0:21:38.440
<v Speaker 1>task or a single um course of action, right. Like

0:21:40.119 --> 0:21:42.520
<v Speaker 1>another great example is that a lot of the robots

0:21:42.560 --> 0:21:47.720
<v Speaker 1>we depend upon today are functional because they focus on

0:21:47.720 --> 0:21:50.959
<v Speaker 1>a very specific task. They don't they don't branch beyond it.

0:21:51.359 --> 0:21:54.439
<v Speaker 1>And we've seen that the there are a lot of

0:21:54.520 --> 0:21:58.040
<v Speaker 1>challenges to create robots that are able to tackle numerous

0:21:58.119 --> 0:22:03.399
<v Speaker 1>challenges and uh, Thus we come to the conclusion that

0:22:03.560 --> 0:22:07.560
<v Speaker 1>coming coming up with like an artificial general intelligence is

0:22:07.600 --> 0:22:11.959
<v Speaker 1>going to be incredibly challenging just from the the baby

0:22:12.040 --> 0:22:15.840
<v Speaker 1>steps that we've seen so far in that arena. And

0:22:15.840 --> 0:22:18.800
<v Speaker 1>and even then like with the darker robotics challenge, which

0:22:18.800 --> 0:22:22.239
<v Speaker 1>we will mention again later on. Uh. Even with the

0:22:22.320 --> 0:22:25.240
<v Speaker 1>advancements that we've seen in that realm, we see the

0:22:25.280 --> 0:22:29.160
<v Speaker 1>limitations that are there, and that's only a small, a tiny,

0:22:29.200 --> 0:22:36.480
<v Speaker 1>tiny slice of everything. Whereas general intelligence we we tend

0:22:36.560 --> 0:22:40.800
<v Speaker 1>to say could deal with any topic or any task.

0:22:41.920 --> 0:22:44.520
<v Speaker 1>Anything humans can do, it should be able to do too,

0:22:44.600 --> 0:22:48.120
<v Speaker 1>and probably some other stuff too. Yes, yes, so yeah.

0:22:48.160 --> 0:22:50.120
<v Speaker 1>I think I'm going to suggest that it makes more

0:22:50.119 --> 0:22:52.960
<v Speaker 1>sense for us to speak of narrow AI and general

0:22:53.080 --> 0:22:55.879
<v Speaker 1>AI for the purpose of these episodes than we k

0:22:55.920 --> 0:22:58.159
<v Speaker 1>AI and strong AI, just so we can avoid these

0:22:58.200 --> 0:23:01.480
<v Speaker 1>side questions about you know, the nature of consciousness in

0:23:01.520 --> 0:23:05.320
<v Speaker 1>the phenomenal logical nature of thinking and stuff. I agree,

0:23:05.520 --> 0:23:08.120
<v Speaker 1>and uh. I also want to point out that general

0:23:08.920 --> 0:23:13.919
<v Speaker 1>artificial intelligence can still refer to a machine that is

0:23:14.040 --> 0:23:18.760
<v Speaker 1>dedicated to a specific set of tasks. It doesn't have

0:23:18.880 --> 0:23:21.639
<v Speaker 1>to mean that you've got, you know, the deep thought

0:23:21.680 --> 0:23:24.280
<v Speaker 1>computer where you can ask any question and it will

0:23:24.280 --> 0:23:27.480
<v Speaker 1>give you the answer. It may be that we look

0:23:27.600 --> 0:23:31.439
<v Speaker 1>at examples like a machine that could exist within the

0:23:31.480 --> 0:23:34.560
<v Speaker 1>medical field is the example I picked, where it helps

0:23:34.640 --> 0:23:39.640
<v Speaker 1>doctors diagnose and treat patients, and IBM s. Watson computer

0:23:40.080 --> 0:23:43.120
<v Speaker 1>is meant to do those sort of things. But I'm

0:23:43.160 --> 0:23:45.840
<v Speaker 1>talking about going a step beyond what Watson can do

0:23:46.400 --> 0:23:50.400
<v Speaker 1>and and be almost like a partner or collaborator with

0:23:50.520 --> 0:23:53.480
<v Speaker 1>the doctors, the medical staff. I've got something to say

0:23:53.480 --> 0:23:55.480
<v Speaker 1>about that in a bit, because there are some critics

0:23:55.480 --> 0:23:59.160
<v Speaker 1>of AI theory who don't like Watson and and it's

0:23:59.280 --> 0:24:01.640
<v Speaker 1>a very under endible. Yeah, I'm glad that you put

0:24:01.680 --> 0:24:05.520
<v Speaker 1>that note in as well. Also, I think that it's

0:24:05.600 --> 0:24:10.720
<v Speaker 1>possible we'll see that there's not a firm line between

0:24:10.840 --> 0:24:15.359
<v Speaker 1>narrow AI and general AI, maybe that that line is

0:24:15.400 --> 0:24:18.600
<v Speaker 1>actually pretty fuzzy, and that it will be a little

0:24:18.600 --> 0:24:22.679
<v Speaker 1>bit difficult once you get to sufficiently complex narrow AI.

0:24:22.920 --> 0:24:25.960
<v Speaker 1>It may be difficult for us to say, well, is

0:24:26.000 --> 0:24:29.840
<v Speaker 1>this still narrow AI, or would we call this general AI.

0:24:29.920 --> 0:24:32.800
<v Speaker 1>It may not be something as simple as, uh, you know,

0:24:32.880 --> 0:24:35.840
<v Speaker 1>well that this is distinctly general AI and this is

0:24:35.880 --> 0:24:38.159
<v Speaker 1>distinctly narrow but it is useful for the purposes of

0:24:38.200 --> 0:24:42.479
<v Speaker 1>this conversation to have that distinction between the two. Okay,

0:24:42.480 --> 0:24:45.600
<v Speaker 1>one more topic we should define before we start getting

0:24:45.640 --> 0:24:48.920
<v Speaker 1>into these debates is the idea of super intelligence. Yeah,

0:24:49.000 --> 0:24:52.960
<v Speaker 1>this is what Superman has no but it is, well, actually,

0:24:53.000 --> 0:24:55.960
<v Speaker 1>I guess Superman does have sort of superhuman intelligence suddenly.

0:24:57.600 --> 0:25:00.240
<v Speaker 1>I mean, if you watched Batman versus Superman, clear really

0:25:00.320 --> 0:25:02.960
<v Speaker 1>he does not, because he would never agree to be

0:25:03.000 --> 0:25:05.800
<v Speaker 1>in that movie if he had super intelligence. Yeah. I

0:25:05.800 --> 0:25:08.120
<v Speaker 1>watched the most of that on the plane back from

0:25:08.119 --> 0:25:12.760
<v Speaker 1>New York. Yeah. Wow, that was a slog. So what

0:25:13.040 --> 0:25:17.879
<v Speaker 1>is super intelligence? That's just intelligence surpassing the most powerful

0:25:18.000 --> 0:25:22.360
<v Speaker 1>biological intelligence of humans, which is clearly that by definition,

0:25:22.400 --> 0:25:25.640
<v Speaker 1>it means we humans cannot possess it unless we've undergone

0:25:25.720 --> 0:25:28.840
<v Speaker 1>some form of enhancement, whether unless you get to your

0:25:28.880 --> 0:25:32.800
<v Speaker 1>trans human kind of brain right right, And you could

0:25:32.840 --> 0:25:36.240
<v Speaker 1>even argue that this this would be degrees, right, it's

0:25:36.280 --> 0:25:38.640
<v Speaker 1>not necessarily that we would be leaps and bounds more

0:25:38.680 --> 0:25:42.320
<v Speaker 1>intelligent front once we hit that point. It may mean

0:25:42.720 --> 0:25:45.720
<v Speaker 1>that we find, through genetic modification, we can improve our

0:25:45.760 --> 0:25:49.159
<v Speaker 1>intelligence by degrees over the course of time as we

0:25:49.200 --> 0:25:51.359
<v Speaker 1>get more and more adept with it. And so it

0:25:51.400 --> 0:25:53.880
<v Speaker 1>may be that it's a transition where it's not like

0:25:54.600 --> 0:25:57.840
<v Speaker 1>the common conception of the singularity, where one day everything

0:25:57.920 --> 0:26:01.840
<v Speaker 1>is different, but rather, over the core of a decent

0:26:01.840 --> 0:26:04.639
<v Speaker 1>amount of time, we get to a stage where we

0:26:04.720 --> 0:26:08.960
<v Speaker 1>no longer can meaningfully define the present, but it does

0:26:09.080 --> 0:26:11.800
<v Speaker 1>mean changing humans in some way if if we want

0:26:11.840 --> 0:26:16.080
<v Speaker 1>to achieve superhuman intelligence, either through medicine or through technology

0:26:16.119 --> 0:26:19.720
<v Speaker 1>or both or whatever. Right, but superhuman intelligence and machines.

0:26:20.560 --> 0:26:22.480
<v Speaker 1>One thing that I think is interesting about this is

0:26:22.520 --> 0:26:26.040
<v Speaker 1>it's always just assumed. It's assumed if we create a

0:26:26.160 --> 0:26:29.680
<v Speaker 1>g I that will lead to super intelligence in machines.

0:26:29.720 --> 0:26:32.199
<v Speaker 1>And I'm not necessarily disputing that assumption, but I do

0:26:32.280 --> 0:26:34.640
<v Speaker 1>think it's interesting that it's always just kind of assumed

0:26:34.680 --> 0:26:37.680
<v Speaker 1>as a given. I think it's funny because we're all

0:26:37.720 --> 0:26:43.080
<v Speaker 1>familiar with how computer services can sometimes mess up. Right

0:26:43.960 --> 0:26:47.160
<v Speaker 1>where you know any service that you might use where

0:26:47.280 --> 0:26:49.119
<v Speaker 1>you start looking into it and you're like, well, this

0:26:49.200 --> 0:26:54.479
<v Speaker 1>is clearly it's it's either unintelligent or the work of

0:26:54.600 --> 0:26:58.520
<v Speaker 1>a crazy person. Great example that is Chef Watson, where

0:26:58.520 --> 0:27:01.080
<v Speaker 1>you start looking at the recipes, You're thinking, all right, well,

0:27:01.119 --> 0:27:03.320
<v Speaker 1>we've got a long way to go because these recipes

0:27:03.840 --> 0:27:07.119
<v Speaker 1>either do not sound appetizing, do not reflect what the

0:27:07.160 --> 0:27:10.439
<v Speaker 1>title of the recipe says, or make no sense, or

0:27:10.600 --> 0:27:13.520
<v Speaker 1>some combination of those. Um But then again, I kind

0:27:13.520 --> 0:27:16.520
<v Speaker 1>of wonder what would it mean for a computer chef

0:27:16.560 --> 0:27:21.480
<v Speaker 1>to actually be super intelligent in the realm of designing recipes,

0:27:22.000 --> 0:27:24.280
<v Speaker 1>I imagine it would have to mean that it was

0:27:24.400 --> 0:27:28.040
<v Speaker 1>just able to make the most nutritious, delicious food covered

0:27:28.080 --> 0:27:31.240
<v Speaker 1>in caso. I mean, caso has to be on top

0:27:31.320 --> 0:27:35.560
<v Speaker 1>of it for it to be super intelligent. Yeah, I don't. Yeah,

0:27:35.880 --> 0:27:39.560
<v Speaker 1>really it is cheating. I any time I make something

0:27:39.600 --> 0:27:42.080
<v Speaker 1>and I realized that I have made a terrible dish,

0:27:42.560 --> 0:27:46.320
<v Speaker 1>I just add melted cheese and that that covers all sins.

0:27:46.359 --> 0:27:51.280
<v Speaker 1>But you know, we've this may also be a fuzzy area,

0:27:51.480 --> 0:27:54.800
<v Speaker 1>right because we can already see that computers are better

0:27:55.400 --> 0:27:58.880
<v Speaker 1>or at least faster at processing certain types of information

0:27:58.960 --> 0:28:01.000
<v Speaker 1>than human beings are. If if it, if they weren't,

0:28:01.160 --> 0:28:04.720
<v Speaker 1>we wouldn't use computers right there. They would be unnecessary.

0:28:04.760 --> 0:28:07.440
<v Speaker 1>They would actually slow things down. But they are better

0:28:07.880 --> 0:28:11.919
<v Speaker 1>than we are for certain types of complex processing. And

0:28:11.960 --> 0:28:14.520
<v Speaker 1>we've built computers that are better at us than lots

0:28:14.560 --> 0:28:18.040
<v Speaker 1>of other or better than us that add a lot

0:28:18.080 --> 0:28:22.400
<v Speaker 1>of tasks like chess, We've got computers and computer programs.

0:28:22.960 --> 0:28:26.160
<v Speaker 1>They can beat the best chess masters human chess masters

0:28:26.200 --> 0:28:29.879
<v Speaker 1>on the planet and go. We've solved Go. Now, the

0:28:30.160 --> 0:28:32.800
<v Speaker 1>computers are better at playing Go than than humans are.

0:28:33.240 --> 0:28:35.000
<v Speaker 1>But these are what I want to know is when

0:28:35.040 --> 0:28:37.040
<v Speaker 1>computers are going to be able to beat humans at

0:28:37.080 --> 0:28:40.719
<v Speaker 1>Magic the Gathering? Yeah, yeah, when they start tapping man

0:28:40.960 --> 0:28:46.640
<v Speaker 1>like crazy. Yeah, I'm already still pretty darn good at clue.

0:28:46.880 --> 0:28:49.400
<v Speaker 1>I think I can. I think I can go up

0:28:49.440 --> 0:28:52.720
<v Speaker 1>against the best computers in a game of clue. Uh

0:28:52.760 --> 0:28:56.120
<v Speaker 1>and not because I cheat. But you gotta keep in

0:28:56.160 --> 0:28:57.960
<v Speaker 1>mind that these computers that we're talking about, they're very

0:28:58.000 --> 0:29:01.200
<v Speaker 1>specific machines running very specific soft where for a very

0:29:01.280 --> 0:29:04.920
<v Speaker 1>specific purpose. Right It's like the the computer that can

0:29:04.960 --> 0:29:09.479
<v Speaker 1>beat you in chess may not be better than you

0:29:09.520 --> 0:29:13.400
<v Speaker 1>are at some other tasks. And there are certain cognitive

0:29:13.440 --> 0:29:17.680
<v Speaker 1>tasks that computers just don't they can't even compete in

0:29:17.800 --> 0:29:21.720
<v Speaker 1>right now. Yeah, you know, especially anything that involves creativity. Um,

0:29:21.880 --> 0:29:24.360
<v Speaker 1>that is one of those issues where we're still way ahead.

0:29:24.400 --> 0:29:26.320
<v Speaker 1>We've talked about that in previous episode and we're going

0:29:26.400 --> 0:29:28.560
<v Speaker 1>to get into that more in a bit. But yeah,

0:29:28.840 --> 0:29:32.840
<v Speaker 1>these these tasks all have very highly specified outcomes. Yes,

0:29:33.040 --> 0:29:36.960
<v Speaker 1>it's very clear what the parameters of success are, and

0:29:37.000 --> 0:29:39.800
<v Speaker 1>thus it's easy for the computer to follow them because

0:29:39.840 --> 0:29:42.360
<v Speaker 1>all it has to do is run step by step

0:29:42.560 --> 0:29:46.720
<v Speaker 1>algorithmic execution. Uh. And it can do it thousands of

0:29:46.760 --> 0:29:49.240
<v Speaker 1>times faster than we can. So yes, it beats us.

0:29:49.280 --> 0:29:53.960
<v Speaker 1>It's essentially brute forcing the um the task, right. It

0:29:54.040 --> 0:29:55.760
<v Speaker 1>looks at the task, it says, all right, well, what

0:29:55.760 --> 0:30:00.520
<v Speaker 1>what are all the different possible moves for this particular situation?

0:30:00.920 --> 0:30:04.040
<v Speaker 1>Which one is the most advantageous. Now we've seen those

0:30:04.160 --> 0:30:07.440
<v Speaker 1>programs become more sophisticated over time, where it becomes less

0:30:07.440 --> 0:30:10.320
<v Speaker 1>of a brute force and more of a probabilistic approach.

0:30:10.640 --> 0:30:13.320
<v Speaker 1>But it's still, you know, it's still going about it

0:30:13.360 --> 0:30:15.640
<v Speaker 1>this way. It's not like innovating. It's not it's not

0:30:15.760 --> 0:30:18.840
<v Speaker 1>creating a new defense or a new attack like you

0:30:18.880 --> 0:30:23.360
<v Speaker 1>would see chess masters do. However, there are computers that

0:30:23.440 --> 0:30:26.760
<v Speaker 1>are capable of actually learning, right, there are There is

0:30:26.800 --> 0:30:30.640
<v Speaker 1>such a thing as machine learning. UM. That's essentially a

0:30:30.720 --> 0:30:34.240
<v Speaker 1>process of trial and error. You give a machine a task,

0:30:35.280 --> 0:30:38.400
<v Speaker 1>it attempts to do this task, You evaluate how the

0:30:38.440 --> 0:30:42.120
<v Speaker 1>machine performed and and indicate in some way in the

0:30:42.160 --> 0:30:46.440
<v Speaker 1>machines programming whether it's succeeded or failed, And then it

0:30:46.480 --> 0:30:50.400
<v Speaker 1>attempts to do it again, maybe perhaps improve upon its performance,

0:30:50.920 --> 0:30:53.800
<v Speaker 1>and through this process of trial and error, which takes

0:30:53.880 --> 0:30:58.160
<v Speaker 1>quite some time even in the machine world, it quote

0:30:58.200 --> 0:31:01.720
<v Speaker 1>unquote learns. It learns how to best approach whatever task

0:31:01.760 --> 0:31:07.080
<v Speaker 1>you've given it. Um it It's it doesn't mean that

0:31:07.120 --> 0:31:11.160
<v Speaker 1>the machine actually understands what it's doing. Right, For the

0:31:11.200 --> 0:31:13.920
<v Speaker 1>example that we've given before, the idea of teaching a

0:31:13.920 --> 0:31:16.520
<v Speaker 1>computer what a cat is like how to recognize a

0:31:16.560 --> 0:31:21.240
<v Speaker 1>cat in a picture. It recognizes cats to some degree

0:31:21.320 --> 0:31:25.960
<v Speaker 1>of of accuracy in photos, but it doesn't know what

0:31:26.080 --> 0:31:29.080
<v Speaker 1>a cat is. It doesn't know how a cat is

0:31:29.080 --> 0:31:33.360
<v Speaker 1>different from a dog. Is only able to recognize, uh,

0:31:33.400 --> 0:31:36.400
<v Speaker 1>the image of a cat inside a picture, and it

0:31:36.440 --> 0:31:40.680
<v Speaker 1>could never understand why cat memes are funny, right, it wouldn't.

0:31:40.920 --> 0:31:43.760
<v Speaker 1>It would just see that there's an awful lot of

0:31:43.800 --> 0:31:47.760
<v Speaker 1>cat content on the Internet, which might lead a a

0:31:47.960 --> 0:31:51.760
<v Speaker 1>stupid computer to believing that cats are the dominant species

0:31:52.400 --> 0:31:54.760
<v Speaker 1>on this planet, which I think most domestic cats would

0:31:54.800 --> 0:31:58.360
<v Speaker 1>agree is the truth. But I I have some you know,

0:31:58.400 --> 0:32:02.160
<v Speaker 1>I don't own a cat, so I dispute us um Now.

0:32:02.320 --> 0:32:05.320
<v Speaker 1>A super intelligent general AI is typically the type we

0:32:05.360 --> 0:32:07.480
<v Speaker 1>see in science fiction stories that pick the man against

0:32:07.480 --> 0:32:10.640
<v Speaker 1>machine skynet. Yeah, that's the big one or or how

0:32:11.120 --> 0:32:15.520
<v Speaker 1>in two thousand one. Uh, but we again, we can't

0:32:15.560 --> 0:32:17.680
<v Speaker 1>be sure that we'll ever be able to create such

0:32:17.840 --> 0:32:21.360
<v Speaker 1>a computer or the software. Really, when we say a

0:32:21.400 --> 0:32:25.120
<v Speaker 1>computer or a machine, we're also we also mean the

0:32:25.160 --> 0:32:29.080
<v Speaker 1>software that would be required to make this happen. And

0:32:29.160 --> 0:32:32.760
<v Speaker 1>in fact it maybe that software becomes the big impediment

0:32:32.880 --> 0:32:36.360
<v Speaker 1>and not not the technological processing part. We don't know,

0:32:37.000 --> 0:32:40.080
<v Speaker 1>but either way, just keep in mind when we talk

0:32:40.080 --> 0:32:45.000
<v Speaker 1>about computers or machines, we're lumping software into that as well. Right,

0:32:45.040 --> 0:32:48.720
<v Speaker 1>So I guess we should transition to talking about where

0:32:48.760 --> 0:32:52.600
<v Speaker 1>we are right now in the development of artificial intelligence.

0:32:52.720 --> 0:32:55.840
<v Speaker 1>And I would say, maybe you can dispute this, but

0:32:56.640 --> 0:32:58.720
<v Speaker 1>the most basic picture of the lay of the land

0:32:58.760 --> 0:33:02.280
<v Speaker 1>today is that we're making lots of progress with individual

0:33:02.360 --> 0:33:06.920
<v Speaker 1>examples of narrow AI and apparently nowhere near anything like

0:33:07.040 --> 0:33:09.680
<v Speaker 1>strong or general AI. I would agree with that. I

0:33:09.680 --> 0:33:12.880
<v Speaker 1>would say that, uh, we've got some great examples of

0:33:13.120 --> 0:33:19.640
<v Speaker 1>very compelling, very accomplished narrow AI stuff that is impressive,

0:33:19.760 --> 0:33:23.200
<v Speaker 1>but then you you just recognize on the face of

0:33:23.200 --> 0:33:26.040
<v Speaker 1>it that it cannot do anything outside of its intended purpose,

0:33:26.480 --> 0:33:30.440
<v Speaker 1>like facial recognition. Again, facial recognition software has gotten really good.

0:33:30.480 --> 0:33:33.920
<v Speaker 1>I mean, just using something like Facebook and going on Facebook.

0:33:34.080 --> 0:33:38.200
<v Speaker 1>The ability for Facebook Facebook's AI, you know, it's facial

0:33:38.240 --> 0:33:43.040
<v Speaker 1>recognition software to identify a person with a pretty good

0:33:43.040 --> 0:33:46.440
<v Speaker 1>accuracy is kind of surprising us. Even if you're you've

0:33:46.480 --> 0:33:50.640
<v Speaker 1>got part of the face obscured, it's pretty good. It's

0:33:50.760 --> 0:33:53.240
<v Speaker 1>it's not perfect. I don't know. It keeps identifying my

0:33:53.360 --> 0:33:56.760
<v Speaker 1>left elbow as Gary Abuse. Well, to be fair, I

0:33:56.760 --> 0:33:59.920
<v Speaker 1>thought I thought for a while that you had actually

0:34:00.080 --> 0:34:04.520
<v Speaker 1>grafted Gary Bucy's head onto your left elbow. Uh so,

0:34:04.680 --> 0:34:08.120
<v Speaker 1>I mean that's really more of a personal problem. I guess. No,

0:34:08.200 --> 0:34:12.960
<v Speaker 1>I guess I shouldn't have gotten that Gary Bucy tattoo. Yeah.

0:34:13.000 --> 0:34:17.160
<v Speaker 1>But uh but again, we wouldn't expect that facial recognition

0:34:17.200 --> 0:34:21.600
<v Speaker 1>software to be able to diagnose a medical issue or

0:34:21.960 --> 0:34:27.440
<v Speaker 1>be able to give us the projection for whether three

0:34:27.480 --> 0:34:29.680
<v Speaker 1>months out, like, none of that would make any sense.

0:34:29.760 --> 0:34:32.799
<v Speaker 1>It doesn't. It doesn't do those things. It is a

0:34:32.920 --> 0:34:36.640
<v Speaker 1>very specific application of AI for a specific purpose, and

0:34:36.719 --> 0:34:38.440
<v Speaker 1>when you think of it that way, a lot of

0:34:38.440 --> 0:34:41.279
<v Speaker 1>our narrow AI is pretty good. Here's some examples I

0:34:41.280 --> 0:34:44.280
<v Speaker 1>would give. I'd say, driverless cars are a good example

0:34:44.520 --> 0:34:47.680
<v Speaker 1>of narrow AI. It's maybe a little more broad than

0:34:48.120 --> 0:34:50.040
<v Speaker 1>your facial recognition is, because it's got to do a

0:34:50.120 --> 0:34:54.400
<v Speaker 1>lot of different stuff. It's got to navigate changing dynamic environments.

0:34:54.400 --> 0:34:56.520
<v Speaker 1>It has to be able to sense things that's going around.

0:34:56.520 --> 0:34:59.440
<v Speaker 1>It has to be able to convert that information in

0:34:59.760 --> 0:35:02.799
<v Speaker 1>in process it in a way that then results in

0:35:02.920 --> 0:35:07.239
<v Speaker 1>actions that it takes, whether that's speeding up or breaking

0:35:07.480 --> 0:35:09.479
<v Speaker 1>or swerving out of the way, whatever that might be.

0:35:10.640 --> 0:35:13.960
<v Speaker 1>There are a lot of different uh um things going

0:35:14.000 --> 0:35:17.600
<v Speaker 1>on here. Now. We have had some fairly tragic, really

0:35:17.640 --> 0:35:22.160
<v Speaker 1>tragic examples of failures of this technology recently that show

0:35:22.239 --> 0:35:27.879
<v Speaker 1>that it has its limitations. It cannot process every scenario

0:35:28.080 --> 0:35:32.560
<v Speaker 1>with perfection. In general, they these driverless cars performed better

0:35:32.560 --> 0:35:36.200
<v Speaker 1>than human drivers. They're able to have full sixty degree

0:35:36.200 --> 0:35:39.320
<v Speaker 1>awareness beyond that really because but it is no longer

0:35:39.360 --> 0:35:42.080
<v Speaker 1>true that they've had no at fault accidents. That was

0:35:42.120 --> 0:35:44.640
<v Speaker 1>true for a long time. Yeah. Now, the in the

0:35:44.680 --> 0:35:47.200
<v Speaker 1>case of the Google one, it's funny because it's kind

0:35:47.200 --> 0:35:50.680
<v Speaker 1>of a backhanded thing where the Google's like, yeah, our

0:35:50.680 --> 0:35:53.200
<v Speaker 1>car assumed that the bus driver would let the car

0:35:53.280 --> 0:35:55.279
<v Speaker 1>in and it turns out that assumption was wrong, which

0:35:55.320 --> 0:35:57.680
<v Speaker 1>is kind of kind of a passive aggressive way of saying,

0:35:57.680 --> 0:36:00.800
<v Speaker 1>it's our fault. They need to adjust their algorithm to

0:36:00.800 --> 0:36:04.239
<v Speaker 1>to include a lower view of human nature. Yes, yeah,

0:36:04.280 --> 0:36:07.640
<v Speaker 1>assume that people are jerk faces. Uh. Then there's the

0:36:07.640 --> 0:36:11.240
<v Speaker 1>Tesla autopilot, which really is more of a driver assist system.

0:36:11.320 --> 0:36:14.680
<v Speaker 1>It's not meant to be a driverless car system. Uh.

0:36:14.719 --> 0:36:18.840
<v Speaker 1>And we've seen several accidents with people in those cars.

0:36:18.880 --> 0:36:21.600
<v Speaker 1>But you know, Tesla, the company itself has said this

0:36:21.680 --> 0:36:24.399
<v Speaker 1>is not meant to be an autonomous car, it's meant

0:36:24.440 --> 0:36:28.680
<v Speaker 1>to be a driver assist feature. Uh. So you could say, well,

0:36:28.880 --> 0:36:31.160
<v Speaker 1>in that case, some of those accidents are at least

0:36:31.200 --> 0:36:34.440
<v Speaker 1>partly the fault of the operators because they were not

0:36:34.560 --> 0:36:39.120
<v Speaker 1>operating the vehicle the way the company had communicated you

0:36:39.160 --> 0:36:41.200
<v Speaker 1>were supposed to, which is like you don't take your

0:36:41.239 --> 0:36:44.239
<v Speaker 1>hands off the wheel, and you maintain awareness and you

0:36:44.280 --> 0:36:47.399
<v Speaker 1>don't just let the car just take over to take over,

0:36:47.440 --> 0:36:52.600
<v Speaker 1>because that wasn't the purpose of the the technology. Beyond that,

0:36:52.640 --> 0:36:55.880
<v Speaker 1>we've got things like virtual assistance. I think we're all

0:36:55.880 --> 0:36:58.960
<v Speaker 1>familiar with these things like Siri or Alexa or Google's

0:36:58.960 --> 0:37:02.960
<v Speaker 1>assistant these are all voice activated interfaces. They involve some

0:37:03.080 --> 0:37:08.520
<v Speaker 1>natural language processing button cheeky jokes, cheeky jokes ultimately, but

0:37:08.560 --> 0:37:11.200
<v Speaker 1>their pre programmed cheeky jokes. They're not coming up with

0:37:11.280 --> 0:37:14.440
<v Speaker 1>new jokes, right. Someone had to record all those things.

0:37:14.480 --> 0:37:16.840
<v Speaker 1>And I mean even if you were to record every

0:37:16.840 --> 0:37:22.000
<v Speaker 1>single word in whatever language you were programming in, uh,

0:37:22.200 --> 0:37:24.359
<v Speaker 1>that would you'd still have to figure out a way

0:37:24.360 --> 0:37:26.680
<v Speaker 1>of placing them in the right order for the syntax

0:37:26.719 --> 0:37:30.640
<v Speaker 1>to make sense. But ultimately, these are interfaces, right. It's

0:37:30.680 --> 0:37:33.360
<v Speaker 1>not any different than say a graphic user interface or

0:37:33.400 --> 0:37:37.719
<v Speaker 1>a gooey or even a text based interface. It's just

0:37:37.880 --> 0:37:42.480
<v Speaker 1>it's just a level of interaction that seems to suggest

0:37:42.680 --> 0:37:46.360
<v Speaker 1>the presence of intelligence, but doesn't actually mean it's intelligence.

0:37:46.400 --> 0:37:49.080
<v Speaker 1>It still involves artificial intelligence because it involves that natural

0:37:49.160 --> 0:37:53.520
<v Speaker 1>language processing and probabilistic determination of which, you know, what

0:37:53.560 --> 0:37:55.279
<v Speaker 1>was it that you were asking for and what's the

0:37:55.320 --> 0:37:58.600
<v Speaker 1>most likely answer to your query so that you get

0:37:58.640 --> 0:38:01.400
<v Speaker 1>what you want. If if that and work, then it

0:38:01.440 --> 0:38:04.200
<v Speaker 1>would be pointless using these things, right, You would ask

0:38:04.320 --> 0:38:07.560
<v Speaker 1>Serie a question and the response would be completely nonsensical

0:38:07.800 --> 0:38:10.600
<v Speaker 1>or irrelevant, and you would never use it again. So

0:38:11.560 --> 0:38:14.920
<v Speaker 1>there's some elements of AI there, but it is very narrow. Uh.

0:38:14.960 --> 0:38:17.719
<v Speaker 1>There's the facial recognition stuff that we've talked about already.

0:38:18.080 --> 0:38:21.440
<v Speaker 1>There's the discipline of machine learning, which is, you know,

0:38:21.680 --> 0:38:26.560
<v Speaker 1>not specific to any one application. It's a discipline, not

0:38:26.560 --> 0:38:30.840
<v Speaker 1>not a specific example, but it does show a concept

0:38:30.880 --> 0:38:34.920
<v Speaker 1>of narrow AI, which is again that trial and error approach. Uh.

0:38:35.080 --> 0:38:38.480
<v Speaker 1>You can also have computer programs that are able to

0:38:39.440 --> 0:38:45.120
<v Speaker 1>infer information based upon some sort of input. UH. Stanford

0:38:45.160 --> 0:38:48.480
<v Speaker 1>researchers showed this off when they had the computer program

0:38:48.480 --> 0:38:50.960
<v Speaker 1>that observed the movements of a pendulum and then was

0:38:51.040 --> 0:38:55.080
<v Speaker 1>able to infer the laws of motion based upon that,

0:38:55.640 --> 0:38:57.320
<v Speaker 1>and it was able to do it in the course

0:38:57.320 --> 0:39:00.040
<v Speaker 1>of like I think, I think, like a maybe a

0:39:00.160 --> 0:39:02.520
<v Speaker 1>day or so. And when you think about how long

0:39:02.520 --> 0:39:05.520
<v Speaker 1>it took humans to put all that together, it's pretty impressive,

0:39:05.840 --> 0:39:08.000
<v Speaker 1>right that a computer was able to put these pieces

0:39:08.040 --> 0:39:11.279
<v Speaker 1>together within a matter of a few hours compared to

0:39:12.040 --> 0:39:17.760
<v Speaker 1>centuries UM. Pretty pretty extraordinary, but again limited in that respect.

0:39:17.800 --> 0:39:20.799
<v Speaker 1>It can't it can't look at anything. It's not like

0:39:21.120 --> 0:39:23.640
<v Speaker 1>you could show it reality television and it could explain

0:39:23.719 --> 0:39:29.880
<v Speaker 1>that to you. Some things are just impossible to understand um.

0:39:30.000 --> 0:39:34.640
<v Speaker 1>And then there, of course robotic platforms designed to observe

0:39:34.760 --> 0:39:38.000
<v Speaker 1>humans as they go through a series of steps and

0:39:38.040 --> 0:39:40.879
<v Speaker 1>then just repeat those series of steps. We've seen these

0:39:40.880 --> 0:39:44.640
<v Speaker 1>in robotics, like pick up this block, move it over here,

0:39:44.800 --> 0:39:47.479
<v Speaker 1>pick up this bottle, poor stuff on the block, move

0:39:47.520 --> 0:39:50.320
<v Speaker 1>the block over here, and then when the robot observes

0:39:50.320 --> 0:39:54.760
<v Speaker 1>it can then repeat. That's the type of machine learning too. Now,

0:39:56.480 --> 0:40:02.080
<v Speaker 1>the further we go from single purpose devices, especially with robotics,

0:40:02.560 --> 0:40:05.200
<v Speaker 1>the more we start to see the limitations of AI. Right.

0:40:05.719 --> 0:40:08.919
<v Speaker 1>The Darker Robotics challenge is a great example of this. Yes,

0:40:09.000 --> 0:40:11.960
<v Speaker 1>and we we've talked about all of the darker robotics

0:40:12.000 --> 0:40:17.120
<v Speaker 1>fails before, and we should emphasize as always that in

0:40:17.280 --> 0:40:20.320
<v Speaker 1>talking about how funny it is to see these robots

0:40:20.400 --> 0:40:23.920
<v Speaker 1>just fall over and be conquered by a door or

0:40:23.960 --> 0:40:27.360
<v Speaker 1>some sand or something, we're not saying that the people

0:40:27.360 --> 0:40:32.040
<v Speaker 1>who created them didn't do an amazing technological accomplishment. I

0:40:32.040 --> 0:40:35.600
<v Speaker 1>mean they did. These things are cutting edge, they're very

0:40:35.640 --> 0:40:39.600
<v Speaker 1>they're very impressive. It's just a testament to how hard

0:40:39.680 --> 0:40:42.000
<v Speaker 1>it is to make a robot that's able to do

0:40:42.239 --> 0:40:47.680
<v Speaker 1>twenty six different physical tasks. Right, Yeah, it's so again,

0:40:47.719 --> 0:40:54.520
<v Speaker 1>it demonstrates that artificial intelligence and robotics designs both are

0:40:54.520 --> 0:40:59.759
<v Speaker 1>our hard problems. They're not not easily conquered, and we

0:41:00.000 --> 0:41:05.160
<v Speaker 1>often forget that when we see really compelling demonstrations of

0:41:05.200 --> 0:41:10.239
<v Speaker 1>either artificial intelligence or robotics, it seems natural that the

0:41:10.320 --> 0:41:13.720
<v Speaker 1>next step forward would be right around the corner. That's

0:41:13.719 --> 0:41:18.360
<v Speaker 1>not necessarily the case. And then, Uh, we got to

0:41:18.440 --> 0:41:23.440
<v Speaker 1>get into how we're treating the whole idea of artificial

0:41:23.480 --> 0:41:26.160
<v Speaker 1>general intelligence in the first place, Like, how do we

0:41:27.120 --> 0:41:29.640
<v Speaker 1>how how would we get to that point? Right? Well,

0:41:29.640 --> 0:41:32.200
<v Speaker 1>we're we're just sort of assuming up until now that

0:41:32.480 --> 0:41:36.160
<v Speaker 1>we can just keep working on the types of artificial

0:41:36.200 --> 0:41:41.280
<v Speaker 1>intelligence projects we've been doing and eventually maybe we'll get

0:41:41.320 --> 0:41:43.960
<v Speaker 1>to some a g I. And that could be a

0:41:44.080 --> 0:41:46.160
<v Speaker 1>very flawed assumption. I mean, it could be that there

0:41:46.280 --> 0:41:49.759
<v Speaker 1>is a problem with our basic approach to a g

0:41:49.960 --> 0:41:53.760
<v Speaker 1>I and we need to go back to ground level

0:41:53.840 --> 0:41:57.920
<v Speaker 1>and start over. For example, the Oxford physicist David Deutsch,

0:41:58.360 --> 0:42:00.560
<v Speaker 1>he he has written about this in a piece from

0:42:00.600 --> 0:42:04.720
<v Speaker 1>October twenties twelve and Eon magazine that I thought was interesting.

0:42:04.760 --> 0:42:07.239
<v Speaker 1>He was talking about our failure to build a g I,

0:42:08.120 --> 0:42:11.760
<v Speaker 1>and Uh, so he says, in principle a g I

0:42:11.840 --> 0:42:17.279
<v Speaker 1>must be possible given the universality of computation. Quote. This

0:42:17.440 --> 0:42:20.640
<v Speaker 1>entails that everything that the laws of physics require a

0:42:21.040 --> 0:42:25.319
<v Speaker 1>physical object to do can, in principle be emulated in

0:42:25.520 --> 0:42:30.320
<v Speaker 1>arbitrarily fine detail by some program on a general purpose computer,

0:42:30.520 --> 0:42:34.239
<v Speaker 1>provided it is given enough time and memory. And so

0:42:34.400 --> 0:42:36.120
<v Speaker 1>he he talks about how the first people to really

0:42:36.120 --> 0:42:40.279
<v Speaker 1>grapple with this were Charles Babbage and Ada Lovelace, who

0:42:40.640 --> 0:42:43.080
<v Speaker 1>did their work with the Difference Engine, which was a

0:42:43.120 --> 0:42:46.279
<v Speaker 1>machine designed to sort of the first computer in many

0:42:46.280 --> 0:42:51.960
<v Speaker 1>ways is enormous, big mechanical computer, right, designed to flawlessly

0:42:52.080 --> 0:42:57.200
<v Speaker 1>replicate the computation power of human quote computers. These people

0:42:57.239 --> 0:43:00.520
<v Speaker 1>who you know, just did computations to fill out out

0:43:00.560 --> 0:43:03.440
<v Speaker 1>mathematical tables. So you'd have a big table had all

0:43:03.440 --> 0:43:07.080
<v Speaker 1>these co signed values or logarithm values in it, and

0:43:07.120 --> 0:43:10.160
<v Speaker 1>they'd make mistakes, and so they wanted, you know, Babbage

0:43:10.200 --> 0:43:13.239
<v Speaker 1>wanted a computer that could It was a machine that

0:43:13.280 --> 0:43:16.920
<v Speaker 1>could put these numbers out without making any mistakes along

0:43:16.960 --> 0:43:20.160
<v Speaker 1>the way. And of course there was a later spiritual

0:43:20.200 --> 0:43:25.160
<v Speaker 1>successor to the Difference Engine, which was the general purpose

0:43:25.320 --> 0:43:29.719
<v Speaker 1>outworking of its principle, the analytical engine. You could use

0:43:29.719 --> 0:43:33.200
<v Speaker 1>an early form of computer memory to reprogram itself for

0:43:33.320 --> 0:43:37.320
<v Speaker 1>any computational tasks, even to the point where Lovelace herself

0:43:37.400 --> 0:43:41.319
<v Speaker 1>had envisioned a future in which music and art could

0:43:41.400 --> 0:43:45.919
<v Speaker 1>be reduced into I shouldn't say reduced, but converted into

0:43:46.000 --> 0:43:50.000
<v Speaker 1>mathematical expressions that a computer would be able to process

0:43:50.000 --> 0:43:53.680
<v Speaker 1>and recreate, which was incredibly prescient. Yeah, so this is

0:43:53.719 --> 0:43:56.240
<v Speaker 1>more than a hundred years ago people having the idea

0:43:56.440 --> 0:44:01.200
<v Speaker 1>of general computer intelligence, and and and it's true what

0:44:01.320 --> 0:44:04.439
<v Speaker 1>what they envisioned is in fact correct, because Deutsch says

0:44:04.480 --> 0:44:09.320
<v Speaker 1>he himself formally proved the principle of universality of computation

0:44:09.360 --> 0:44:13.120
<v Speaker 1>a few decades decades ago using quantum theory of computation.

0:44:14.000 --> 0:44:17.640
<v Speaker 1>So this is now an established principle in in computation theory.

0:44:18.280 --> 0:44:22.000
<v Speaker 1>But so, h G I must in principle be possible,

0:44:22.120 --> 0:44:26.239
<v Speaker 1>and yet we have just made abysmally little progress toward it.

0:44:26.360 --> 0:44:29.040
<v Speaker 1>We we've got all these narrow AI functions, but as

0:44:29.080 --> 0:44:33.080
<v Speaker 1>far as a G I, there's just nothing. Uh. And

0:44:33.160 --> 0:44:37.040
<v Speaker 1>so concerning the study of artificial intelligence, Deutsch writes, I

0:44:37.120 --> 0:44:40.440
<v Speaker 1>cannot think of any other significant field of knowledge in

0:44:40.480 --> 0:44:44.240
<v Speaker 1>which the prevailing wisdom, not only in society at large

0:44:44.280 --> 0:44:48.799
<v Speaker 1>but also among experts is so beset with entrenched, overlapping

0:44:48.920 --> 0:44:53.759
<v Speaker 1>fundamental errors. So that's a that's an intense critique. And

0:44:53.920 --> 0:44:56.239
<v Speaker 1>what does he have to say, Well, well, we'll get

0:44:56.280 --> 0:44:58.120
<v Speaker 1>to this in a second. But he he ties it

0:44:58.160 --> 0:45:02.000
<v Speaker 1>back into some more progress in the history of computing theory.

0:45:02.080 --> 0:45:05.080
<v Speaker 1>So he brings up Alan Turing. He says, Turing came

0:45:05.120 --> 0:45:08.040
<v Speaker 1>along after, you know, much later after Babbage and Lovelace,

0:45:08.440 --> 0:45:11.920
<v Speaker 1>and articulated the idea of the universality of computation that

0:45:12.000 --> 0:45:15.560
<v Speaker 1>any of the distinctive attributes of the human brain could

0:45:15.560 --> 0:45:19.440
<v Speaker 1>be reproduced by a properly designed computer. And then Deutsch

0:45:19.520 --> 0:45:22.680
<v Speaker 1>says that since Turing, so that sort of sparked a debate,

0:45:22.800 --> 0:45:27.400
<v Speaker 1>and since then the intellectual intellectual world has been mostly

0:45:27.560 --> 0:45:31.239
<v Speaker 1>split between two camps. There's one camp who says that

0:45:31.360 --> 0:45:35.280
<v Speaker 1>a g I is impossible, and the other camp says

0:45:35.440 --> 0:45:39.200
<v Speaker 1>it's imminent you know any day now, Yeah, well, and

0:45:39.200 --> 0:45:41.560
<v Speaker 1>and Deutsch says both of these are wrong. And the

0:45:41.840 --> 0:45:46.080
<v Speaker 1>first camp is usually motive motivated either by supernaturalism, you know,

0:45:46.120 --> 0:45:49.000
<v Speaker 1>they say there's something about the mind that is magical right.

0:45:49.040 --> 0:45:51.320
<v Speaker 1>That well, those are the ones who argue the mind

0:45:51.440 --> 0:45:54.239
<v Speaker 1>over the brain, right, the idea that the mind somehow

0:45:54.360 --> 0:45:59.520
<v Speaker 1>is more than the manifestation of activity within within our bodies. Right,

0:46:00.120 --> 0:46:03.279
<v Speaker 1>Or if it's not necessarily a supernatural objection, it's some

0:46:03.360 --> 0:46:07.400
<v Speaker 1>kind of philosophical objection that the Deutsch thinks is incoherent.

0:46:07.480 --> 0:46:10.000
<v Speaker 1>None of these ideas hold water for him, right, like

0:46:10.000 --> 0:46:13.759
<v Speaker 1>like like, For for some inarticulate reason, machines would be

0:46:13.800 --> 0:46:17.600
<v Speaker 1>incapable of possessing this faculty. Huh. And yet Deutsch says,

0:46:17.640 --> 0:46:21.880
<v Speaker 1>the second camp, meanwhile, is has been led severely astray

0:46:21.920 --> 0:46:26.280
<v Speaker 1>because they've failed to understand the primary feature distinguishing human

0:46:26.320 --> 0:46:30.920
<v Speaker 1>minds from other physical objects like computers. And that's creativity, right,

0:46:31.000 --> 0:46:34.239
<v Speaker 1>that idea of of innovation and being able to come

0:46:34.320 --> 0:46:39.640
<v Speaker 1>up with an idea that is not necessarily a product

0:46:39.719 --> 0:46:43.279
<v Speaker 1>of just experimentation or trial and error. I would I

0:46:43.280 --> 0:46:46.200
<v Speaker 1>would argue also that that second camp has largely been

0:46:46.520 --> 0:46:52.799
<v Speaker 1>led astray by equating the idea of progress towards a

0:46:52.960 --> 0:46:57.040
<v Speaker 1>g I with other types of progress like Moore's law,

0:46:57.600 --> 0:47:00.239
<v Speaker 1>where you see Moore's laws progress and it seems to

0:47:00.280 --> 0:47:03.400
<v Speaker 1>have this very steady rate. Yeah, you. You'll see this

0:47:03.520 --> 0:47:07.360
<v Speaker 1>sometimes in like a Kurswilian type thought, where people say,

0:47:07.400 --> 0:47:10.520
<v Speaker 1>look at look at the rate of progress through Moore's law,

0:47:10.920 --> 0:47:14.640
<v Speaker 1>we can extrapolate this to a general progress of computational

0:47:14.719 --> 0:47:18.160
<v Speaker 1>power and thus machine intelligence, and from this rule we

0:47:18.239 --> 0:47:22.000
<v Speaker 1>can predict that the singularity will come in twenty whatever. Yeah,

0:47:22.200 --> 0:47:24.560
<v Speaker 1>but the problem there is that one it does not

0:47:24.640 --> 0:47:29.960
<v Speaker 1>necessarily take into account the progress with software sophistication, which

0:47:30.000 --> 0:47:33.799
<v Speaker 1>does not necessarily keep up with Moore's law. Nor does

0:47:33.840 --> 0:47:37.960
<v Speaker 1>it take into account the fact that artificial intelligence depends

0:47:38.080 --> 0:47:43.000
<v Speaker 1>more on more than just processing power, and that our

0:47:43.120 --> 0:47:47.560
<v Speaker 1>understanding of intelligence in general doesn't follow the same pattern

0:47:47.680 --> 0:47:50.000
<v Speaker 1>as Moore's laws. So there are a lot of other

0:47:50.239 --> 0:47:54.839
<v Speaker 1>factors that could put the brakes on that on that

0:47:54.920 --> 0:47:56.839
<v Speaker 1>journey to a g I not saying that it makes

0:47:56.840 --> 0:48:01.799
<v Speaker 1>it impossible, but rather that the timeline maybe longer than

0:48:01.840 --> 0:48:06.359
<v Speaker 1>what some of these enthusiasts project. Yes, and so so.

0:48:06.480 --> 0:48:08.480
<v Speaker 1>To come back to Deutsch at the end of his argument,

0:48:08.800 --> 0:48:11.000
<v Speaker 1>he seems to suggest, at least the way I read

0:48:11.080 --> 0:48:16.000
<v Speaker 1>him is he's saying we need a philosophical revolution in epistemology,

0:48:16.040 --> 0:48:18.880
<v Speaker 1>and that's the study of how we know things. You

0:48:18.920 --> 0:48:22.640
<v Speaker 1>know how how you know, um a revolution in the

0:48:22.960 --> 0:48:26.200
<v Speaker 1>philosophy of epistemology before we can create a g I,

0:48:26.719 --> 0:48:31.160
<v Speaker 1>because we don't even have a correct philosophical model of

0:48:31.280 --> 0:48:36.080
<v Speaker 1>how humans actually do generate creativity. And I'd agree with

0:48:36.160 --> 0:48:39.319
<v Speaker 1>him there. I think we we don't have a coherent

0:48:39.600 --> 0:48:45.160
<v Speaker 1>understanding of what exactly creativity is. Yeah, and I think

0:48:45.200 --> 0:48:48.560
<v Speaker 1>that's something that we probably I'm not sure I fully

0:48:48.600 --> 0:48:51.080
<v Speaker 1>agree with him that we have to understand that before

0:48:51.120 --> 0:48:53.200
<v Speaker 1>we could create a g I. But I do think

0:48:53.200 --> 0:48:56.400
<v Speaker 1>he makes a strong point. We're trying to make a

0:48:56.440 --> 0:48:59.680
<v Speaker 1>machine that can be as good as a human at

0:48:59.760 --> 0:49:03.480
<v Speaker 1>at creative leaps, and we don't even understand how humans

0:49:03.520 --> 0:49:06.600
<v Speaker 1>make creative leaps, right. We we understand the products of

0:49:06.640 --> 0:49:10.720
<v Speaker 1>that creativity, but we don't understand the mechanism of creativity itself,

0:49:11.360 --> 0:49:14.840
<v Speaker 1>which is and he he illustrates this with common examples.

0:49:14.880 --> 0:49:16.400
<v Speaker 1>You know, the kind of thing that you would You

0:49:16.440 --> 0:49:19.160
<v Speaker 1>can get a computer to do amazing things as long

0:49:19.200 --> 0:49:22.400
<v Speaker 1>as you have specified parameters. You're telling it. Here are

0:49:22.400 --> 0:49:25.080
<v Speaker 1>the rules of go. Here, the types of moves you

0:49:25.120 --> 0:49:28.160
<v Speaker 1>can make. Here, the conditions of winning. Now figure out

0:49:28.160 --> 0:49:31.839
<v Speaker 1>how to win. Okay, Well, that's clear now instead try

0:49:31.920 --> 0:49:34.440
<v Speaker 1>to say, can you figure out what dark matter is?

0:49:34.560 --> 0:49:38.160
<v Speaker 1>Go computer. You can't write a program for that, because

0:49:38.200 --> 0:49:43.200
<v Speaker 1>it requires to to program such a machine, you would

0:49:43.200 --> 0:49:45.560
<v Speaker 1>sort of you would have to know what the parameters

0:49:45.600 --> 0:49:48.120
<v Speaker 1>of success were. And if you knew what the parameters

0:49:48.160 --> 0:49:51.320
<v Speaker 1>of success were, then you would you would have the answer.

0:49:51.600 --> 0:49:54.759
<v Speaker 1>You wouldn't need to ask the computer in the first place. Yeah. Yeah,

0:49:55.320 --> 0:49:59.000
<v Speaker 1>this is where you get into that that issue of uh, well,

0:49:59.600 --> 0:50:03.600
<v Speaker 1>the way to get around that ultimately is assuming you

0:50:03.640 --> 0:50:05.680
<v Speaker 1>get to that first step where you can create a

0:50:05.719 --> 0:50:09.400
<v Speaker 1>machine where you can have it have at least some

0:50:09.480 --> 0:50:12.520
<v Speaker 1>element of a g I, have it designed its own successor,

0:50:13.160 --> 0:50:16.480
<v Speaker 1>and then then you get into the deep thought Earth model.

0:50:16.560 --> 0:50:19.320
<v Speaker 1>You know, that might be a solution. But so anyway

0:50:19.360 --> 0:50:21.080
<v Speaker 1>to finish up with Deutsch, what what he says in

0:50:21.120 --> 0:50:24.400
<v Speaker 1>the end is really we're making no significant progress at

0:50:24.440 --> 0:50:27.120
<v Speaker 1>all on a g I. Not because people aren't working

0:50:27.160 --> 0:50:30.200
<v Speaker 1>hard on the problem, but because we lack a fundamental,

0:50:30.320 --> 0:50:34.719
<v Speaker 1>ground level piece of information that's necessary to designing this

0:50:34.840 --> 0:50:38.399
<v Speaker 1>capability and machines to understanding the nature of the thing

0:50:38.440 --> 0:50:41.880
<v Speaker 1>we call intelligence. And until we make that philosophical breakthrough

0:50:41.880 --> 0:50:46.040
<v Speaker 1>about the nature of creativity in a in epistemology, we're

0:50:46.120 --> 0:50:49.000
<v Speaker 1>just fumbling around in the dark with AI research. Yeah,

0:50:49.040 --> 0:50:53.440
<v Speaker 1>so it would be like landing on a planet and

0:50:53.520 --> 0:50:56.640
<v Speaker 1>someone tells you, hey, it's a planet. That's that's like

0:50:56.680 --> 0:51:00.359
<v Speaker 1>Earth to the point where there's Starbucks. Okay, okay, there's

0:51:00.360 --> 0:51:04.480
<v Speaker 1>only one Starbucks. And you land on that plane, you

0:51:04.560 --> 0:51:07.200
<v Speaker 1>land on that exactly for the bathroom. You land on

0:51:07.239 --> 0:51:11.839
<v Speaker 1>that planet and uh, you have no map, you have

0:51:11.880 --> 0:51:14.960
<v Speaker 1>no coordinates or anything. You're just told you need to

0:51:15.000 --> 0:51:18.600
<v Speaker 1>go to Starbucks. Well, you don't know what direction to

0:51:18.680 --> 0:51:20.800
<v Speaker 1>head in. You don't know where it is in relation

0:51:20.800 --> 0:51:23.319
<v Speaker 1>to where you are, you don't know where to look. Uh,

0:51:23.360 --> 0:51:26.200
<v Speaker 1>the same sort of thing, like like you might find it,

0:51:26.400 --> 0:51:29.399
<v Speaker 1>you might fall upon it, but odds are you would

0:51:29.480 --> 0:51:33.320
<v Speaker 1>just spend a whole lot of time just randomly walking around,

0:51:33.400 --> 0:51:35.759
<v Speaker 1>not making any real progress. That's kind of the same thing.

0:51:35.800 --> 0:51:39.120
<v Speaker 1>Like we're fumbling about because we don't have a big picture,

0:51:39.239 --> 0:51:41.440
<v Speaker 1>we don't have a map, we don't we don't know

0:51:41.520 --> 0:51:43.680
<v Speaker 1>how to get the pathway to the destination we want

0:51:43.719 --> 0:51:46.279
<v Speaker 1>to reach. And this idea is actually it's kind of

0:51:46.320 --> 0:51:49.200
<v Speaker 1>exciting to me because it makes me think about, oh wow,

0:51:49.560 --> 0:51:52.400
<v Speaker 1>how I mean what if somebody figures this out in

0:51:52.480 --> 0:51:56.279
<v Speaker 1>my lifetime? What if somebody discovers here, really, this is

0:51:56.320 --> 0:51:59.359
<v Speaker 1>the best way to characterize what creativity is and how

0:51:59.440 --> 0:52:02.319
<v Speaker 1>it happened in the brain. Wouldn't that be a fascinating

0:52:02.360 --> 0:52:04.479
<v Speaker 1>thing to understand? Well? And it would be neat because

0:52:04.520 --> 0:52:07.680
<v Speaker 1>you could then take that information and think back on

0:52:08.239 --> 0:52:13.800
<v Speaker 1>individuals that we identify as being incredibly creative, right like,

0:52:13.800 --> 0:52:15.600
<v Speaker 1>Like then you could sit there and think, wow, so

0:52:15.680 --> 0:52:19.919
<v Speaker 1>this this who whomever was the author of Shakespeare's Place

0:52:19.960 --> 0:52:24.000
<v Speaker 1>it was William Shakespeare. You could then start to characterize

0:52:24.000 --> 0:52:27.759
<v Speaker 1>in a more kind of analytical way, which would be

0:52:27.840 --> 0:52:30.160
<v Speaker 1>fascinating to me because you could say, like, these are

0:52:30.160 --> 0:52:34.719
<v Speaker 1>the qualities that Shakespeare must have possessed in order no

0:52:36.280 --> 0:52:42.040
<v Speaker 1>oxford Ians come on kidding, insulting my intelligence. That's a

0:52:42.040 --> 0:52:45.480
<v Speaker 1>button that you can push very easily. But then we

0:52:45.560 --> 0:52:51.719
<v Speaker 1>have some other ideas about artificial general intelligence and and

0:52:51.800 --> 0:52:54.440
<v Speaker 1>some of the problems that have come along with misrepresenting,

0:52:54.560 --> 0:52:58.480
<v Speaker 1>misrepresenting either intentionally or otherwise, what our official intelligence is. Yeah,

0:52:58.560 --> 0:53:01.960
<v Speaker 1>another thing I want to mention is a criticism leveled

0:53:02.040 --> 0:53:04.640
<v Speaker 1>that I that I've read before, by the uh, the

0:53:05.200 --> 0:53:07.800
<v Speaker 1>what would you call him and just general, very smart,

0:53:07.880 --> 0:53:12.840
<v Speaker 1>interesting guy. Jaron Lanier. He's a technologist, virtual reality pioneer.

0:53:13.200 --> 0:53:16.839
<v Speaker 1>He writes about technology and culture. Super smart dude. Yeah,

0:53:16.920 --> 0:53:18.799
<v Speaker 1>I And I like him a lot. I really like

0:53:18.880 --> 0:53:20.560
<v Speaker 1>reading what he has to say, even when I don't

0:53:20.560 --> 0:53:23.600
<v Speaker 1>agree with him. He's one of those Yeah, he's one

0:53:23.600 --> 0:53:27.200
<v Speaker 1>of those people who I like to read him. Disagree

0:53:27.239 --> 0:53:30.520
<v Speaker 1>with me, Yeah, yeah, I I I'm the same page.

0:53:30.840 --> 0:53:35.080
<v Speaker 1>But yeah. Anyway, So he says that sometimes the way

0:53:35.120 --> 0:53:39.279
<v Speaker 1>we invoke the very concept of artificial intelligence can have

0:53:39.360 --> 0:53:44.279
<v Speaker 1>negative impacts on research progress and on human culture. And

0:53:44.320 --> 0:53:47.319
<v Speaker 1>so the example he gives, uh, and I'm gonna just

0:53:47.320 --> 0:53:50.400
<v Speaker 1>try to give a summary rather than getting into the details. Uh.

0:53:50.480 --> 0:53:52.520
<v Speaker 1>In this New York Times article of his that I

0:53:52.560 --> 0:53:55.400
<v Speaker 1>read from a while back, called the First Church of Robotics,

0:53:55.520 --> 0:54:00.440
<v Speaker 1>he says that um framing advancements in computer software in

0:54:00.560 --> 0:54:05.879
<v Speaker 1>robotics as quote artificial intelligence often over sells a sort

0:54:05.880 --> 0:54:10.719
<v Speaker 1>of fake theatrical advancement and under sells the real function

0:54:11.000 --> 0:54:14.640
<v Speaker 1>of the advancement. And the example he gives is Watson

0:54:14.719 --> 0:54:17.640
<v Speaker 1>on Jeopardy, And the way I'd interpret him, I think

0:54:17.680 --> 0:54:20.319
<v Speaker 1>what he's saying is that, you know, the Jeopardy competition.

0:54:20.880 --> 0:54:24.040
<v Speaker 1>Watson going on there and beating the human contestants is

0:54:24.080 --> 0:54:28.200
<v Speaker 1>sort of theatrical and misleading. If you're trying to imply

0:54:28.360 --> 0:54:32.640
<v Speaker 1>that Watson has the sort of general conversational intelligence of

0:54:32.680 --> 0:54:35.960
<v Speaker 1>a human who can win at Jeopardy, you're misleading people.

0:54:36.000 --> 0:54:39.920
<v Speaker 1>It doesn't have that. But meanwhile, what IBM did do

0:54:40.040 --> 0:54:44.760
<v Speaker 1>is put together a really interesting, powerful, formidable phrase based

0:54:44.800 --> 0:54:48.120
<v Speaker 1>search engine, which is an achievement that is useful and

0:54:48.160 --> 0:54:51.160
<v Speaker 1>deserves recognition in its own light. And you kind of

0:54:51.280 --> 0:54:54.600
<v Speaker 1>undercut that when you try to frame it as something

0:54:54.680 --> 0:54:58.280
<v Speaker 1>that it isn't. I agree entirely with that, by the way.

0:54:58.480 --> 0:55:02.360
<v Speaker 1>I think that that's an excellent and point, and uh,

0:55:02.480 --> 0:55:06.080
<v Speaker 1>I think we see it all the time in lots

0:55:06.080 --> 0:55:09.000
<v Speaker 1>of different realms of artificial intelligence. And I also think

0:55:09.080 --> 0:55:11.920
<v Speaker 1>it's totally fitting for a guy who was a pioneer

0:55:11.920 --> 0:55:14.800
<v Speaker 1>in virtual reality to bring that up, because virtual reality

0:55:14.840 --> 0:55:19.080
<v Speaker 1>had the exact same thing happen. Right. Virtual reality, when

0:55:19.080 --> 0:55:21.879
<v Speaker 1>it was blossoming in the in the late eighties early

0:55:21.960 --> 0:55:26.759
<v Speaker 1>nineties is just getting started. It fizzled out largely because

0:55:27.320 --> 0:55:31.560
<v Speaker 1>there was a misrepresentation of what virtual reality was. People

0:55:31.680 --> 0:55:34.760
<v Speaker 1>had an idea of what it actually was capable of doing,

0:55:35.280 --> 0:55:37.960
<v Speaker 1>and the reality was so far away from that that

0:55:38.080 --> 0:55:43.359
<v Speaker 1>public interests and funding went away, and it took two

0:55:43.440 --> 0:55:46.480
<v Speaker 1>decades to get back to where we should have been

0:55:46.680 --> 0:55:50.320
<v Speaker 1>by the end of the nineties. Misleading marketing killed public

0:55:50.360 --> 0:55:55.040
<v Speaker 1>interests in something that was genuinely interesting. Uh. Yeah. And

0:55:55.080 --> 0:55:57.600
<v Speaker 1>so another point he makes, and this is kind of

0:55:58.000 --> 0:56:00.200
<v Speaker 1>beside the point, but I do think it's interesting, is

0:56:00.200 --> 0:56:03.160
<v Speaker 1>that he points out that trying to construe the latest

0:56:03.239 --> 0:56:07.640
<v Speaker 1>robot or computer program as in some ways significantly resembling

0:56:07.719 --> 0:56:11.799
<v Speaker 1>human intelligence, we not only overestimate what these machines can do,

0:56:12.360 --> 0:56:17.399
<v Speaker 1>we also tend to start underestimating and devaluing human intelligence

0:56:17.400 --> 0:56:21.959
<v Speaker 1>in personhood. And I think there's something to that too. Yeah,

0:56:22.000 --> 0:56:25.640
<v Speaker 1>And and so here's my take on both Deutsche and

0:56:25.760 --> 0:56:30.440
<v Speaker 1>Lanier's points. So, first, I think and I hesitate to

0:56:30.440 --> 0:56:33.120
<v Speaker 1>say that Deutsch is overlooking anything, because I'm sure Deutsch

0:56:33.280 --> 0:56:35.359
<v Speaker 1>is far more intelligent than I am and has thought

0:56:35.360 --> 0:56:38.920
<v Speaker 1>about this in much greater detail than I have. And

0:56:38.960 --> 0:56:41.440
<v Speaker 1>I've not read all of Deutsch's work, So this is

0:56:41.760 --> 0:56:45.560
<v Speaker 1>but based upon what we looked at, I think there

0:56:45.719 --> 0:56:49.880
<v Speaker 1>is the possibility that you're overlooking, not you Joe, but

0:56:50.000 --> 0:56:55.800
<v Speaker 1>Deutsch is overlooking the potential for us to achieve uh,

0:56:56.000 --> 0:56:59.080
<v Speaker 1>the the task of creating an a g I without

0:56:59.080 --> 0:57:03.960
<v Speaker 1>fully understanding the mechanisms that actually create it. Right. This

0:57:04.040 --> 0:57:08.960
<v Speaker 1>is something that does happen where occasionally someone makes something

0:57:09.000 --> 0:57:12.080
<v Speaker 1>that works, but we don't fully understand why it works

0:57:12.200 --> 0:57:16.400
<v Speaker 1>until later. Right. So it's one of the amazing things

0:57:16.400 --> 0:57:20.000
<v Speaker 1>about human ingenuity. Sometimes we create a thing, it does

0:57:20.040 --> 0:57:22.920
<v Speaker 1>something unexpected, or it does something better than what we

0:57:22.960 --> 0:57:29.160
<v Speaker 1>had anticipated, and uh, and it's not because some sort

0:57:29.200 --> 0:57:32.840
<v Speaker 1>of magical light shone down on that innovation. It's that

0:57:32.880 --> 0:57:35.960
<v Speaker 1>we had a limited understanding of what we were actually doing,

0:57:36.000 --> 0:57:38.439
<v Speaker 1>and we did it, and later on, as we get

0:57:38.440 --> 0:57:43.160
<v Speaker 1>a grander understanding of it, a deeper, more thorough understanding

0:57:43.160 --> 0:57:45.439
<v Speaker 1>of it, then we're we say, oh, well, that's why

0:57:45.440 --> 0:57:48.080
<v Speaker 1>it works that way. We didn't know it at the time.

0:57:48.560 --> 0:57:54.440
<v Speaker 1>So I think it's entirely possible, not necessarily plausible, but

0:57:54.600 --> 0:57:59.640
<v Speaker 1>possible that we would create a general artificial intelligence without

0:57:59.720 --> 0:58:04.400
<v Speaker 1>knowing the secret sauce that makes a general intelligence possible.

0:58:04.520 --> 0:58:07.360
<v Speaker 1>It's it's one of those things that could just arise

0:58:07.960 --> 0:58:14.000
<v Speaker 1>as a product of complexity once we have sufficiently sophisticated,

0:58:14.080 --> 0:58:18.000
<v Speaker 1>narrow AI, and we've banded enough of them together that

0:58:18.720 --> 0:58:22.760
<v Speaker 1>it seems like it's emergent, and it's not necessarily truly emergent,

0:58:22.840 --> 0:58:24.680
<v Speaker 1>and may just seem that way to us because we

0:58:24.680 --> 0:58:27.920
<v Speaker 1>don't fully understand the mechanisms that made it a general

0:58:27.920 --> 0:58:33.120
<v Speaker 1>intelligence UM So I don't necessarily agree that in order

0:58:33.240 --> 0:58:35.240
<v Speaker 1>to get to that point we have to have a

0:58:35.240 --> 0:58:40.200
<v Speaker 1>deeper understanding of what makes human creativity possible. It may

0:58:40.280 --> 0:58:43.120
<v Speaker 1>turn out that way. It may just, by happenstance, turn

0:58:43.160 --> 0:58:46.320
<v Speaker 1>out that we get a better understanding of human creativity

0:58:46.400 --> 0:58:49.680
<v Speaker 1>before we ever get a g I. But I don't

0:58:49.800 --> 0:58:52.120
<v Speaker 1>know that it's necessary. I don't know if that's like

0:58:52.720 --> 0:58:56.440
<v Speaker 1>if there's like a direct path and human creativity is

0:58:56.440 --> 0:58:58.400
<v Speaker 1>a stop that we have to hit before we hit

0:58:58.440 --> 0:59:02.200
<v Speaker 1>a g I. Um As for a linear I do

0:59:02.280 --> 0:59:05.840
<v Speaker 1>agree with your interpretation, uh, And I do think that

0:59:05.960 --> 0:59:10.960
<v Speaker 1>when you have these misrepresentations, whether they were intentional or not,

0:59:11.560 --> 0:59:14.080
<v Speaker 1>and often I think they are unintentional. Often I think

0:59:14.120 --> 0:59:18.080
<v Speaker 1>it's an interpretation that say that a media outlet takes

0:59:19.160 --> 0:59:22.560
<v Speaker 1>or is you know, some some sort of pr person

0:59:22.600 --> 0:59:27.040
<v Speaker 1>has created a communication that is not entirely accurate. Again,

0:59:27.120 --> 0:59:30.400
<v Speaker 1>not through any attempt to mislead the public, but just

0:59:30.440 --> 0:59:34.000
<v Speaker 1>through a miss misunderstanding of what's going on. It is

0:59:34.320 --> 0:59:39.400
<v Speaker 1>harmful in the long run, both because we overestimate where

0:59:39.400 --> 0:59:42.960
<v Speaker 1>where we are in AI and also we don't appreciate

0:59:43.560 --> 0:59:48.080
<v Speaker 1>where where we actually are right and and uh again,

0:59:48.120 --> 0:59:50.520
<v Speaker 1>if you if you do it enough, the same thing

0:59:50.520 --> 0:59:53.040
<v Speaker 1>that happened with VR could happen with AI, and that

0:59:53.560 --> 0:59:58.280
<v Speaker 1>you get people less interested in the discipline. It means

0:59:58.280 --> 1:00:01.200
<v Speaker 1>you have fewer computer scientists going into the field, you

1:00:01.280 --> 1:00:05.480
<v Speaker 1>have less uh funding going into projects that could push

1:00:05.560 --> 1:00:10.120
<v Speaker 1>the field forward, and ultimately we all are left behind

1:00:10.440 --> 1:00:14.000
<v Speaker 1>as a result of it. So to all you journalists

1:00:14.040 --> 1:00:17.560
<v Speaker 1>out there, do your best to make sure you're representing

1:00:17.720 --> 1:00:22.280
<v Speaker 1>AI stories accurately, but also say what's genuinely cool about them?

1:00:22.280 --> 1:00:25.400
<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, no, don't you know, don't dismiss it, but

1:00:25.480 --> 1:00:27.640
<v Speaker 1>at the same time, don't build it as something that

1:00:27.720 --> 1:00:30.680
<v Speaker 1>it is not. I think people can sometimes, in service

1:00:30.720 --> 1:00:33.600
<v Speaker 1>of trying to be skeptical about things, also sort of

1:00:33.720 --> 1:00:38.240
<v Speaker 1>overcorrect into just kind of pessimism and hating everything. Yes,

1:00:38.760 --> 1:00:40.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's yeah, it's very easy to go to

1:00:40.880 --> 1:00:44.960
<v Speaker 1>the extremes where uh again, where you know, you you

1:00:45.000 --> 1:00:48.520
<v Speaker 1>want to be realistic, but you don't want to be uh,

1:00:48.640 --> 1:00:51.280
<v Speaker 1>you don't want you don't want to disregard stuff you

1:00:51.320 --> 1:00:55.960
<v Speaker 1>want don't want to say, like, well, it's not general

1:00:56.360 --> 1:01:01.240
<v Speaker 1>artificial intelligence. That care, right, it's not general artificial intelligence.

1:01:01.240 --> 1:01:04.760
<v Speaker 1>Therefore it's not important. Ye, that's that's not true. So

1:01:04.760 --> 1:01:05.960
<v Speaker 1>so what is it going to take for us to

1:01:06.000 --> 1:01:09.120
<v Speaker 1>get to a g I. Joe, tell me what's the step?

1:01:09.360 --> 1:01:11.320
<v Speaker 1>How do we do it? If we knew we'd do it?

1:01:11.400 --> 1:01:14.280
<v Speaker 1>We don't know. Nobody knows. Well, there goes my plans

1:01:14.280 --> 1:01:17.960
<v Speaker 1>for tomorrow. But there's a few hypotheses. Right, There are

1:01:18.000 --> 1:01:20.520
<v Speaker 1>a few different avenues that we could in theory. Take

1:01:21.040 --> 1:01:24.800
<v Speaker 1>one we can discuss, I think is the the incremental approach, right,

1:01:24.840 --> 1:01:29.120
<v Speaker 1>sort of the additive emergent a g I approach, and

1:01:29.240 --> 1:01:33.560
<v Speaker 1>that would be narrow AI plus narrow AI plus narrow AI,

1:01:33.600 --> 1:01:36.840
<v Speaker 1>and you just keep adding them up somehow. Eventually you

1:01:36.880 --> 1:01:40.000
<v Speaker 1>can add together enough of these narrow AI s that

1:01:40.080 --> 1:01:45.320
<v Speaker 1>you have generated by addition and artificial general intelligence. Is

1:01:45.360 --> 1:01:48.080
<v Speaker 1>this a good hypothesis? And of course we don't know

1:01:48.120 --> 1:01:50.600
<v Speaker 1>the answer to that. It may very well be that

1:01:50.800 --> 1:01:55.240
<v Speaker 1>artificial general intelligence becomes the product of or rather the

1:01:55.600 --> 1:01:58.439
<v Speaker 1>summation of a whole bunch of different types of narrow AI.

1:01:58.520 --> 1:02:00.280
<v Speaker 1>You could think of it in the way if you

1:02:00.280 --> 1:02:02.000
<v Speaker 1>look at a human being and you say, all right, well,

1:02:02.000 --> 1:02:06.000
<v Speaker 1>what are the faculties that uh, that contribute to intelligence

1:02:06.040 --> 1:02:08.440
<v Speaker 1>as we understand them, And you start with the senses,

1:02:09.080 --> 1:02:11.280
<v Speaker 1>all all the stuff that is in that allows us

1:02:11.320 --> 1:02:14.040
<v Speaker 1>to take an input of information, and you say, all right, well,

1:02:14.040 --> 1:02:15.840
<v Speaker 1>we've got to make sure that we can simulate all

1:02:15.880 --> 1:02:19.080
<v Speaker 1>of that in our machine so that it has some

1:02:19.160 --> 1:02:22.240
<v Speaker 1>equivalent to the senses of sight and smell and touch

1:02:22.280 --> 1:02:24.640
<v Speaker 1>and taste and hearing and all this kind of stuff.

1:02:24.960 --> 1:02:27.720
<v Speaker 1>But then also maybe we add on some memory, and

1:02:27.760 --> 1:02:32.520
<v Speaker 1>then maybe also some object recognition, and then also some

1:02:32.520 --> 1:02:36.120
<v Speaker 1>some basic limbic responses, and then you just keep on

1:02:36.280 --> 1:02:39.400
<v Speaker 1>adding things until you get to a level of complexity

1:02:39.480 --> 1:02:45.400
<v Speaker 1>that is uh. It is is enough for you to say, well,

1:02:45.600 --> 1:02:49.400
<v Speaker 1>if this isn't general AI, it's it's a close enough

1:02:49.440 --> 1:02:54.360
<v Speaker 1>to not matter, right, if it's if it's sufficiently sophisticated

1:02:54.440 --> 1:02:57.800
<v Speaker 1>or complicated to the point where it appears to be

1:02:57.880 --> 1:03:00.919
<v Speaker 1>general AI, then it kind of is general AI. Even

1:03:00.960 --> 1:03:04.440
<v Speaker 1>if that wasn't a let's start from square one and

1:03:04.520 --> 1:03:07.880
<v Speaker 1>build up to general AI approach and uh and it

1:03:07.920 --> 1:03:09.800
<v Speaker 1>maybe it will be that that's the path we have

1:03:09.920 --> 1:03:14.080
<v Speaker 1>to take. That that because as Deutsch points out, we

1:03:14.240 --> 1:03:18.120
<v Speaker 1>lack this this key piece of understanding of what makes

1:03:18.200 --> 1:03:21.400
<v Speaker 1>human intelligence so special, at least as far as we

1:03:21.440 --> 1:03:23.320
<v Speaker 1>can tell. I mean, we're the only ones who seem

1:03:23.360 --> 1:03:27.600
<v Speaker 1>to possess it. Um If if we cannot figure that out,

1:03:27.640 --> 1:03:31.680
<v Speaker 1>and that's a necessary step to go from scratch to

1:03:31.760 --> 1:03:33.840
<v Speaker 1>build out a g I, it may very well be

1:03:33.920 --> 1:03:37.560
<v Speaker 1>that it's just through the process of building out a

1:03:37.720 --> 1:03:41.160
<v Speaker 1>machine that has all of these different narrow AI elements

1:03:41.240 --> 1:03:44.480
<v Speaker 1>that are working together in some way. And I mean

1:03:44.960 --> 1:03:48.520
<v Speaker 1>that alone is a monumental task, right, not just to

1:03:48.560 --> 1:03:51.800
<v Speaker 1>develop each type of narrow AI, but then to figure

1:03:51.800 --> 1:03:53.840
<v Speaker 1>out how do you build a framework where these can

1:03:53.880 --> 1:03:57.400
<v Speaker 1>all work together and there can be some sort of

1:03:57.440 --> 1:04:02.480
<v Speaker 1>processing unit that acts as like the conductor that understands

1:04:03.000 --> 1:04:06.200
<v Speaker 1>what all of this data means and assign it importance

1:04:06.360 --> 1:04:09.960
<v Speaker 1>and be able to create responses to it. That's a

1:04:10.040 --> 1:04:13.640
<v Speaker 1>non trivial problem all by itself. But it maybe that

1:04:13.640 --> 1:04:16.240
<v Speaker 1>that's the approach to a g I, or maybe we

1:04:16.400 --> 1:04:22.400
<v Speaker 1>just you know, maybe maybe it just happens accidentally. You know,

1:04:23.040 --> 1:04:25.480
<v Speaker 1>we've talked about this before, to the idea of if

1:04:25.520 --> 1:04:29.640
<v Speaker 1>you were to create a sufficiently complicated neural network that

1:04:29.720 --> 1:04:33.360
<v Speaker 1>perhaps intelligence would just be an emergent faculty, that it

1:04:33.360 --> 1:04:39.439
<v Speaker 1>would it would uh manifest simply through the complexity. Uh.

1:04:39.480 --> 1:04:44.080
<v Speaker 1>Somehow I find that this. I find it intuitively unlikely.

1:04:44.160 --> 1:04:46.320
<v Speaker 1>But then again, what's our intuition worth, you know, I

1:04:46.320 --> 1:04:49.720
<v Speaker 1>mean almost nothing? Yeah, I mean it's it's part of

1:04:49.720 --> 1:04:52.120
<v Speaker 1>You could argue, well, the brain is really a complicated

1:04:52.200 --> 1:04:55.760
<v Speaker 1>organ and maybe if we were to create an artificial

1:04:55.800 --> 1:04:59.680
<v Speaker 1>neural network that had a sufficient level of complexity, wouldn't

1:04:59.680 --> 1:05:01.680
<v Speaker 1>necessar really have to match the human brain, but it

1:05:01.720 --> 1:05:04.000
<v Speaker 1>would have to be at least closer than what we

1:05:04.040 --> 1:05:07.800
<v Speaker 1>can accomplish right now that intelligence would naturally arise from it.

1:05:08.280 --> 1:05:11.000
<v Speaker 1>There have been people who have argued that perhaps the

1:05:11.040 --> 1:05:15.320
<v Speaker 1>Internet itself could become an artificial general intelligence, because if

1:05:15.320 --> 1:05:17.280
<v Speaker 1>you think of all the different nodes on the Internet

1:05:17.720 --> 1:05:20.560
<v Speaker 1>as being elements of a neural network, it's getting more

1:05:20.600 --> 1:05:23.480
<v Speaker 1>and more complicated every single day. But if it is,

1:05:23.560 --> 1:05:27.000
<v Speaker 1>it's a it's a brain that has lots of lots

1:05:27.000 --> 1:05:31.000
<v Speaker 1>of mental issues because those machines aren't always on all

1:05:31.000 --> 1:05:34.960
<v Speaker 1>the time. The communication lines can get fouled by various means,

1:05:35.920 --> 1:05:39.360
<v Speaker 1>and as far as we have been able to tell, uh,

1:05:39.400 --> 1:05:44.800
<v Speaker 1>the Internet has not become an intelligent entity of its own,

1:05:45.000 --> 1:05:48.600
<v Speaker 1>and if it is, it is obsessed with cats to

1:05:48.720 --> 1:05:54.040
<v Speaker 1>a level is clearly unhealthy. I mean, it's just it's

1:05:54.040 --> 1:05:58.240
<v Speaker 1>a problem. But that that's It's got a huge, massive

1:05:58.440 --> 1:06:02.600
<v Speaker 1>subconscious right, you know, only a tiny bit of the

1:06:02.640 --> 1:06:05.960
<v Speaker 1>Internet is what we see. Well, not only that, but

1:06:06.120 --> 1:06:09.440
<v Speaker 1>it has like you know, the the classic depiction of

1:06:09.480 --> 1:06:11.880
<v Speaker 1>the angel and the devil on the shoulders that that

1:06:12.040 --> 1:06:16.200
<v Speaker 1>guide a person's decisions. It has several billion of those,

1:06:16.880 --> 1:06:20.120
<v Speaker 1>and many of them are terrible, terrible, terrible entities that

1:06:20.200 --> 1:06:22.960
<v Speaker 1>comment only on YouTube. Okay, so I've got another scenario.

1:06:23.680 --> 1:06:25.880
<v Speaker 1>What would you call it if you just have, like say,

1:06:26.080 --> 1:06:29.760
<v Speaker 1>some project at Google and they just say, yeah, we

1:06:29.840 --> 1:06:31.880
<v Speaker 1>just built it. Here it is, we built your a

1:06:31.960 --> 1:06:34.120
<v Speaker 1>g I. Yeah, I call this one the Grand Slam.

1:06:34.640 --> 1:06:38.160
<v Speaker 1>The idea that you know, you start off with the

1:06:38.280 --> 1:06:43.640
<v Speaker 1>intent of building artificial general intelligence, and this would mean

1:06:43.680 --> 1:06:46.680
<v Speaker 1>instead of going that narrow AI plus narrow AI approach,

1:06:47.120 --> 1:06:52.280
<v Speaker 1>you identify a strategy to create a general intelligence from

1:06:52.320 --> 1:06:55.720
<v Speaker 1>from scratch, from from a starting point. But again I

1:06:55.720 --> 1:06:58.240
<v Speaker 1>would argue that this this kind of falls into that

1:06:58.240 --> 1:07:02.200
<v Speaker 1>that category that Deutsch was pointing at, saying that without

1:07:02.240 --> 1:07:05.320
<v Speaker 1>that full understanding of human intelligence, it would be really,

1:07:05.440 --> 1:07:10.440
<v Speaker 1>really hard, I think, to go this route because it

1:07:10.840 --> 1:07:14.680
<v Speaker 1>presupposes that we understand enough about intelligence to be able

1:07:14.720 --> 1:07:20.080
<v Speaker 1>to create an artificial version of it. Um. I don't

1:07:20.120 --> 1:07:22.960
<v Speaker 1>know that that is something that we could possibly do

1:07:23.040 --> 1:07:25.800
<v Speaker 1>without that deeper understanding that Deutsch said. We might be

1:07:25.840 --> 1:07:32.560
<v Speaker 1>able to create uh, machines that outwardly appear to possess it,

1:07:32.920 --> 1:07:35.040
<v Speaker 1>and you could argue that we've already done that with

1:07:35.120 --> 1:07:38.640
<v Speaker 1>some of the examples we've already given, but it doesn't

1:07:38.760 --> 1:07:43.600
<v Speaker 1>really have that capability. So one last question before we

1:07:43.640 --> 1:07:47.000
<v Speaker 1>wrap up part one, how do we know once we've

1:07:47.040 --> 1:07:49.600
<v Speaker 1>made it? It seems like it would be obvious, but

1:07:49.800 --> 1:07:53.320
<v Speaker 1>would it be necessarily I don't know, because again, if

1:07:53.360 --> 1:07:58.000
<v Speaker 1>if you have a sufficiently complex device that is capable

1:07:58.040 --> 1:08:00.880
<v Speaker 1>of giving what seems to be until eligent answers to

1:08:00.960 --> 1:08:04.640
<v Speaker 1>various questions, you get back to that Chinese room problem,

1:08:04.720 --> 1:08:08.360
<v Speaker 1>right like, is it actually an intelligent machine? Or is

1:08:08.400 --> 1:08:12.720
<v Speaker 1>it just complicated enough that it appears to be intelligent

1:08:12.760 --> 1:08:15.040
<v Speaker 1>to us and doesn't matter at that point. Well, I mean,

1:08:15.360 --> 1:08:19.800
<v Speaker 1>if we go with the crack our definition of intelligence,

1:08:19.880 --> 1:08:22.479
<v Speaker 1>one way we could check to see if it is

1:08:22.520 --> 1:08:25.800
<v Speaker 1>truly an artificial general intelligence is check to see if

1:08:25.840 --> 1:08:30.280
<v Speaker 1>it's solutions to various general problems are working. That's an

1:08:30.280 --> 1:08:32.880
<v Speaker 1>excellent point. You know, it has it reduced to the

1:08:32.960 --> 1:08:36.240
<v Speaker 1>number of steps or the complications in solving problems and

1:08:36.360 --> 1:08:39.680
<v Speaker 1>multiple areas. If we accept that as the definition, then

1:08:39.720 --> 1:08:42.200
<v Speaker 1>I think that would make it pretty easy to figure

1:08:42.240 --> 1:08:45.400
<v Speaker 1>out because you could, uh, it kind of becomes like

1:08:45.439 --> 1:08:48.680
<v Speaker 1>that Simpson's episode where Homer goes to work for Scorpio

1:08:49.240 --> 1:08:51.960
<v Speaker 1>and he walks, is are you guys working? Yeah? Could

1:08:52.040 --> 1:08:55.519
<v Speaker 1>you work harder? Yes? The same sort of thing, right, like,

1:08:55.560 --> 1:08:58.160
<v Speaker 1>can you solve this Rubik's cube? Going back to that example,

1:08:58.479 --> 1:09:00.400
<v Speaker 1>and then it solves the Rubik's cube and then say

1:09:00.439 --> 1:09:03.000
<v Speaker 1>all right, we're gonna reset it to the state it

1:09:03.120 --> 1:09:05.479
<v Speaker 1>was in when you started. Can you solve it in

1:09:05.600 --> 1:09:08.240
<v Speaker 1>fewer moves than you did in the previous one? And

1:09:08.280 --> 1:09:10.200
<v Speaker 1>can you continue to do that? Can you improve on

1:09:10.240 --> 1:09:15.160
<v Speaker 1>your performance until you reached an ideal version of that? Though?

1:09:15.200 --> 1:09:17.880
<v Speaker 1>I guess the real test for for a g I

1:09:17.920 --> 1:09:20.720
<v Speaker 1>would be not just that, because maybe you could program

1:09:20.760 --> 1:09:23.200
<v Speaker 1>into it some kind of you know, the parameters for

1:09:23.240 --> 1:09:25.880
<v Speaker 1>success in solving a Rubics cube. Yeah, now there are

1:09:25.920 --> 1:09:29.040
<v Speaker 1>algorithms for that are known algorithms, because that's how human

1:09:29.560 --> 1:09:32.720
<v Speaker 1>Rubik's cube competitors. Yeah. I mean, we can design a

1:09:32.760 --> 1:09:35.519
<v Speaker 1>computer program right now to solve Rubik's cubes. And that's

1:09:35.600 --> 1:09:38.920
<v Speaker 1>not all that impressive because it's a specified outcome. We

1:09:38.960 --> 1:09:41.320
<v Speaker 1>know what the what the what all the parameters are.

1:09:41.800 --> 1:09:43.960
<v Speaker 1>The really impressive thing would be to do the thing

1:09:44.000 --> 1:09:46.920
<v Speaker 1>Deutsch said and say, hey, can you figure out what

1:09:46.960 --> 1:09:49.800
<v Speaker 1>the heck dark matter is for us? And it comes

1:09:49.840 --> 1:09:53.200
<v Speaker 1>up with the solution and we say, wow, that's really interesting,

1:09:53.240 --> 1:09:55.519
<v Speaker 1>and we do some empirical tests and we figure out

1:09:55.560 --> 1:09:58.240
<v Speaker 1>the son of a gun it was right. Yeah, yeah,

1:09:58.280 --> 1:10:01.360
<v Speaker 1>that would be if if you if you were to

1:10:01.680 --> 1:10:03.720
<v Speaker 1>argue that that's not a g I, I think at

1:10:03.720 --> 1:10:07.040
<v Speaker 1>that point most people would say, like you, at this point,

1:10:07.080 --> 1:10:11.599
<v Speaker 1>you're arguing semantics at best at best, because the result

1:10:11.800 --> 1:10:17.400
<v Speaker 1>is exactly what we would expect with general artificial general intelligence. Well,

1:10:17.400 --> 1:10:20.600
<v Speaker 1>that kind of wraps up this, uh, this laying the groundwork,

1:10:20.800 --> 1:10:23.880
<v Speaker 1>which is pretty extensive. We we laid on a big

1:10:23.880 --> 1:10:26.639
<v Speaker 1>old foundation for our next episode. Well, next time we're

1:10:26.640 --> 1:10:28.760
<v Speaker 1>gonna be talking. We're gonna build on what we've talked

1:10:28.760 --> 1:10:31.680
<v Speaker 1>about today and specifically talk about the idea of an

1:10:31.720 --> 1:10:34.640
<v Speaker 1>AI arms race, taking this idea of a g I

1:10:34.800 --> 1:10:38.439
<v Speaker 1>one step further into the geopolitical realm. Yeah, and that's

1:10:38.439 --> 1:10:42.920
<v Speaker 1>where things really get messy. So you're gonna wanna tune

1:10:42.920 --> 1:10:45.439
<v Speaker 1>into that and pay attention to to what we have

1:10:45.479 --> 1:10:48.240
<v Speaker 1>to say. We're gonna be talking about some interesting characters

1:10:48.240 --> 1:10:51.880
<v Speaker 1>out there who have a lot of opinions on the matter,

1:10:52.360 --> 1:10:55.120
<v Speaker 1>So tune into that, and remember you can send us

1:10:55.120 --> 1:10:58.200
<v Speaker 1>any questions or comments you might have. Our e knowlogress

1:10:58.200 --> 1:11:01.120
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1:11:01.200 --> 1:11:03.760
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1:11:09.360 --> 1:11:11.120
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1:11:11.160 --> 1:11:18.640
<v Speaker 1>again really some For more on this topic in the

1:11:18.680 --> 1:11:32.960
<v Speaker 1>future of technology, visit forward Thinking dot Com brought to

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