1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:05,440 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast, PA all Right. 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:05,960 Speaker 2: Here we go. 3 00:00:10,960 --> 00:00:14,720 Speaker 3: Fifteen Tunny, twenty five, thirty thirty five, Horny Cody five 4 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 3: fifty and the kick as Block, the college Football World Stunners, 5 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 3: Oh my godness. 6 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 1: He stumbled, and football the lateral turn a canter on 7 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: the inside. 8 00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 3: Don't you believe I'm not gonna table off the field 9 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:42,040 Speaker 3: to night. It's not the size of the dog in 10 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 3: the fight. It's the size of the fight in the dog. 11 00:00:48,760 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 2: What's up the generation? Welcome to the Big Bets on 12 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 2: Campus Podcast. This is the Big Ten College Football Betting Preview, 13 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 2: Part two. I'm stucky, joining me as always my fellow 14 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 2: BBOC co host Colin Wilson. If you missed it, Part 15 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:07,200 Speaker 2: one is already out. We covered Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon, USC, Indiana, Michigan, Nebraska, Washington, 16 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:12,039 Speaker 2: and Illinois. In this part we will cover Iowa, Wisconsin, Rutgers, Minnesota, 17 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:15,280 Speaker 2: Michigan State, UCLA, Northwestern Maryland, and last but not least, 18 00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:17,960 Speaker 2: or maybe at least, Purdue got a lot to get to, 19 00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 2: so let's just jump right back in. Let's start with 20 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:24,120 Speaker 2: the Iowa Hawkeyes. 21 00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:27,640 Speaker 1: The Iowa hawk guys under. 22 00:01:27,640 --> 00:01:29,640 Speaker 2: Seven and a half juice, think best. If you want 23 00:01:29,680 --> 00:01:31,800 Speaker 2: to go unders minus one forty five out there, plus 24 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 2: seven to sixty to make the College Foball playoff, forty 25 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:39,160 Speaker 2: five to one to win the conference is the best 26 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:42,680 Speaker 2: price that you'll find out there. This is a team 27 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 2: that's I was going to rely on development. Look, they 28 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 2: only brought in, but they brought in like just a 29 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 2: handful of lower level transfers. That's it. This is Iowa. 30 00:01:51,520 --> 00:01:53,280 Speaker 2: They or not going to go in and it's not 31 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:56,440 Speaker 2: all miss. It's the complete opposite approach. They rely on 32 00:01:56,520 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 2: developing their players, They rely on coaching stability, which they 33 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 2: still have. And but they did go in even though 34 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 2: he's a lower level player. They might have their best 35 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:10,119 Speaker 2: quarterbacks since I don't know Ricky Stanzy and Mark Kronowski. 36 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:12,799 Speaker 2: They brought him in from South Dakota State. We'll see 37 00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:14,799 Speaker 2: if he can make the leap, if he can stay 38 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:18,400 Speaker 2: healthy for the whole season, that's certainly a question. But 39 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:21,400 Speaker 2: that's the bultish case with Iowas. Do they have a quarterback, 40 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:23,160 Speaker 2: Do they have a passing attack? Now? Do they have 41 00:02:23,200 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 2: the wide receivers that's a question. They are all back, 42 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:30,919 Speaker 2: which is good. Their offensive line should be a strength. 43 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 2: I also should mention that they lost Caleb Johnson to 44 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 2: the NFL, who went to the Steelers. Molton takes over. 45 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:39,600 Speaker 2: Can he take that next step? Probably gonna be a 46 00:02:39,680 --> 00:02:42,519 Speaker 2: drop off. They're gonna need Gridowski and those receivers to 47 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:46,880 Speaker 2: do more this year. Defensively, it was a down year 48 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:49,040 Speaker 2: for Phil Parker and his unit, a rare down year 49 00:02:49,320 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 2: to give up too many easy completions. There's no negative plays. 50 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:54,240 Speaker 2: And in the special teams, you know they're gonna be elite. 51 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 2: They're all back. Leigian is back as the return man 52 00:02:57,240 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 2: and it's just Iowa. They're probably gonna win games on 53 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 2: special teams. But they did lose dye guys who are 54 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 2: now currently on NFL rosters. But can they get a 55 00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 2: wide receiver that can just get five hundred yards? They 56 00:03:06,880 --> 00:03:11,239 Speaker 2: haven't had that happened since twenty nineteen. Insane. Last year, 57 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 2: they had a very easy schedule. They played seven of 58 00:03:14,480 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 2: the bottom eight and only one of the top six. 59 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 2: That was the year for Iowa. This year they have 60 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 2: to play five of the top seven and they get 61 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:26,840 Speaker 2: none of the bottom four, so the schedule definitely gets tougher, 62 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:30,600 Speaker 2: although they do avoid Michigan and Ohio State and Indiana, 63 00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 2: Oregon and Penn State came two Iowa, so there's going 64 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 2: to be some opportunities for them to pull some upsets. 65 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 2: I think the floor is like four or five, the 66 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:42,400 Speaker 2: ceiling is nine. Parence usually does best when there's not 67 00:03:42,520 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 2: a ton of expectations, and maybe that's the case this year. 68 00:03:45,920 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 2: I haven't with a lot of coin flips. I mean 69 00:03:47,520 --> 00:03:50,960 Speaker 2: I have nine single digit spreads projected four spreads under three. 70 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 2: Like there's every game is winnable or losable. Besides what 71 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 2: Albany and UMass, what are you seeing with Iowa? Does 72 00:03:58,200 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 2: the defense have that bounce back year? I mean last 73 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:04,200 Speaker 2: year they lost three games when leading by double digits. 74 00:04:05,080 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 2: Prior to last year to Farris they were seventy four 75 00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 2: to two. They only lost two games before last year 76 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:13,960 Speaker 2: when leading by double digits, lost three last year. What 77 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:16,160 Speaker 2: are you seeing with the Hawkeyes win total seven and 78 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:16,479 Speaker 2: a half? 79 00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:19,160 Speaker 3: Well, the good news for Iowahawkeye fans is Gronowski did 80 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:20,760 Speaker 3: not play in the spring game because of injury. But 81 00:04:20,800 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 3: he is in camp and he is for all things 82 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 3: that I've read okay and practicing just fine. Ninety three touchdowns, 83 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:30,720 Speaker 3: twenty interceptions in four years for the Jacks, a low 84 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:33,120 Speaker 3: two percent turnover worthy play rates. So you're getting a 85 00:04:33,240 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 3: real quarterback, which is very important for Iowa football. The 86 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 3: first time in quite a while, Iowa's offensive line was 87 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 3: horrible eightieth in line yards. Caleb Johnson's yards all came 88 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:46,480 Speaker 3: because of Caleb Johnson. So I think it's a good 89 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 3: thing that Kamari Moulton was three point six yards after 90 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 3: first contact because he's going to have to probably create 91 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 3: his own yards again. And that's the reason. Like I 92 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:55,479 Speaker 3: would love to say, Iowa was going to upset teams 93 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:58,040 Speaker 3: that are soft on the interior from a run defense perspective, 94 00:04:58,160 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 3: But at the same time, I've got to see a 95 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 3: push out of the interior of this offensive line because 96 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:03,720 Speaker 3: it wasn't there last year. That's a bigger question for 97 00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:05,720 Speaker 3: me than who Granowski is going to throw to on 98 00:05:05,800 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 3: the outside. The defensive line might be the best in 99 00:05:08,320 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 3: the big ten, six of the eight in the two 100 00:05:11,040 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 3: deeper turn, but you know, this is a massive amount 101 00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:15,920 Speaker 3: of coin flips on this schedule. Like you said, I mean, 102 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:19,839 Speaker 3: in the last ten years, Farence thirty and sixteen against 103 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 3: the spread on the road, Iowa shows up on the 104 00:05:22,279 --> 00:05:25,240 Speaker 3: road they always have and he always covers the number 105 00:05:25,480 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 3: at a high clip of about sixty six percent. I 106 00:05:28,080 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 3: think Iowa can go over their win total. I make 107 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:33,000 Speaker 3: the seven point three the number in the market over 108 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:34,919 Speaker 3: six and a half minus one seventy or you can 109 00:05:35,000 --> 00:05:37,200 Speaker 3: get an ultra. I'd rather do an all seven at 110 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 3: you know, minus one twenty or minus one ten. But 111 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:42,479 Speaker 3: I do think that they are a seven win team. 112 00:05:42,640 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm a little lower than you, like six six 113 00:05:45,160 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 2: to five, but I don't think I'm going under. Like 114 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 2: there's just so many coin flips, and then you have 115 00:05:49,160 --> 00:05:51,440 Speaker 2: the Iowa voodoo and I'm just totally not I'm not 116 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 2: completely confident in Gronowski. 117 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 3: Do you know what the problem is the problem with 118 00:05:55,520 --> 00:05:58,039 Speaker 3: returning experience is you take Gronowski's numbers and you plug 119 00:05:58,120 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 3: them in the Iowa offense, and then it makes it 120 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 3: look like you have like one thousand percent returning and 121 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:04,839 Speaker 3: passing yards. And that's like an issue that this portal 122 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 3: has been like biting on with tart for like three 123 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 3: years now, right, because it's not not every yard is 124 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 3: the same at FCS as it is an FBS, Right, 125 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:13,279 Speaker 3: It's not even the same. This is the gap between 126 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 3: G five and power for anymore. It's like you just 127 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:17,480 Speaker 3: can't plug yards and say that's what we have, and 128 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:19,880 Speaker 3: that's affecting wind totals. And I think that's where there's 129 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 3: a gap between you and me. Right, A huge a. 130 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 2: Big range of outcomes for what this team could be. 131 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 2: But we'll be interesting to watch, like an exciting quarterback 132 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 2: to watch in Iowa. Who would have ever thought, all right, 133 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:33,559 Speaker 2: let's move on to Golden Gophers in Minnesota. 134 00:06:33,480 --> 00:06:35,520 Speaker 1: The Minnesota Golden Gophers. 135 00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:38,400 Speaker 2: If they gave me one word to describe you right now, man, 136 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 2: that would be a trailblazer. You know what trailblazers do. 137 00:06:42,000 --> 00:06:45,840 Speaker 1: They blaze trails for other people to Becomingly. 138 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:48,840 Speaker 3: You have blazed trails for others who thought this was 139 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:49,600 Speaker 3: never possible. 140 00:06:49,760 --> 00:06:53,599 Speaker 2: So win total out there. You can get under seven 141 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 2: plus money, under seven plus one point fifteen. I think 142 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:00,720 Speaker 2: if you want to go under one hundred and twenty 143 00:07:00,760 --> 00:07:02,400 Speaker 2: five to one to win the Big Ten, thirteen to 144 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:05,400 Speaker 2: one to make the College Football Playoff. This is a 145 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 2: team last year that I loved betting. I loved their defense. 146 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 2: I love Brosmer, who really started to come on. He's 147 00:07:12,120 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 2: now with the Vikings towards the end of the year. 148 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:17,880 Speaker 2: Major questions. Now at quarterback, it's gonna be redshirt freshman 149 00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 2: Lindsey as the guy for the Gophers. You got your 150 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 2: workhorse back in Taylor. In the backfield you had Turner 151 00:07:25,760 --> 00:07:28,880 Speaker 2: and Davis as well. It's a good backfield. But wide receiver, 152 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:32,640 Speaker 2: you lose Jackson and Spencer, who were eighty percent of 153 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:36,320 Speaker 2: your targets last year. You bring in some transfers Coleman, 154 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 2: Lloy and Tracy. I think there's a drop off there. 155 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 2: Maybe Koy Parrish, their defensive back, who is going to 156 00:07:43,120 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 2: get some look at wide receiver too, is a potential 157 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:50,080 Speaker 2: two way player. We'll see. Offensive line, you lose Ursrie, 158 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:52,800 Speaker 2: your left tackle to the NFL, your left guard, Cooper 159 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 2: to the NFL. You right tackle, Carol. They had one 160 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:59,200 Speaker 2: hundred plus combined big ten starts. It looks like, you know, 161 00:07:59,280 --> 00:08:02,800 Speaker 2: Beers is going to move from guard to center, your 162 00:08:02,840 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 2: center's back moving to left guard. You're gonna five at 163 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 2: a new position. It looks like for Minnesota on the 164 00:08:07,360 --> 00:08:10,160 Speaker 2: offensive line, eighty percent of your target's gone and now 165 00:08:10,200 --> 00:08:13,880 Speaker 2: a rich air freshman quarterback. And this is an offensive 166 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 2: system where the coordinator Harball asks a lot of the quarterbacks. 167 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:22,040 Speaker 2: Now you're gonna have a super inexperienced guy. That could 168 00:08:22,080 --> 00:08:26,240 Speaker 2: be problematic. Defensively, you lose your two defensive ends to 169 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:32,439 Speaker 2: the NFL. Your interiors back, but they're pretty thin overall. Linebacker, 170 00:08:34,520 --> 00:08:36,319 Speaker 2: you know, you lost Linnenberg to the NFL. You have 171 00:08:36,360 --> 00:08:38,440 Speaker 2: a couple guys back you had rovers to Fromoke State, 172 00:08:38,520 --> 00:08:42,280 Speaker 2: and then in the defensive backfield, you lose both your 173 00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 2: corners to the NFL, your nickelback to the NFL. Your 174 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:50,880 Speaker 2: safety group is pretty good, but your cornerback room is 175 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:54,560 Speaker 2: way down. I'm also worried about their special teams, which 176 00:08:54,600 --> 00:08:58,320 Speaker 2: could be way down. In fairness, the offensive line could 177 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,920 Speaker 2: not block last year for the run game. Yah, a 178 00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 2: couple guys went to the NFL. They just couldn't block. Uh. 179 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 2: They were one hundred and eleventh in line yards, lowest 180 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:10,280 Speaker 2: by far at Minnesota in the past fifteen years. But 181 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 2: I'm not sure they fixed that with who they brought in. Like, 182 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 2: the tight end room is decent, so maybe you're going 183 00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:20,839 Speaker 2: to see some more usage of the tight ends, but 184 00:09:21,880 --> 00:09:23,640 Speaker 2: I don't know. There's a lot of questions on this team. 185 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 2: There's ten players lost to the NFL. Six on defense. 186 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 2: The good thing is if you look at the bullsh 187 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 2: case for Minnesota is their schedule I project them. I'm 188 00:09:34,120 --> 00:09:38,880 Speaker 2: six point twenty five under under under for me, maybe 189 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:40,280 Speaker 2: they'd probably get to a Bowl. But I think this 190 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:41,319 Speaker 2: is a six and sixteen. 191 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 3: I've been waiting for this moment to talk to you about. 192 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 3: This is Minnesota gonna lose in Week one against Buffalo 193 00:09:47,559 --> 00:09:51,960 Speaker 3: on this offense Quarterback Tree sucker face. Minnesota's only good 194 00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 3: is that offensive line and Darius Taylor may need to 195 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:57,199 Speaker 3: create all the highlight yards because there was going to 196 00:09:57,240 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 3: be one starter offensive line with twenty four career starts, 197 00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:02,040 Speaker 3: and the portal brought in fifty five starts, and you think, 198 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:03,800 Speaker 3: oh good, they're bringing in fifty five starts, And then 199 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 3: you go and look at some of these guys. Guard 200 00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:09,760 Speaker 3: Marcellus Marshall from Kenny's, he was one hundred and sixtieth 201 00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:13,480 Speaker 3: of all guards in PFF. Ray from Ken Dylan Ray 202 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 3: five hundred and twenty fifth for Kentucky. 203 00:10:16,559 --> 00:10:18,760 Speaker 2: And the Washington left tack was also really bad. 204 00:10:18,960 --> 00:10:21,720 Speaker 3: This offensive line is really bad. It's not just bringing 205 00:10:21,720 --> 00:10:24,280 Speaker 3: in fifty five starts, it's fifty five shitty starts. So 206 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 3: I started the handicap with the question, I'm coming back 207 00:10:27,400 --> 00:10:29,719 Speaker 3: to you because you just did the MAC podcast, and 208 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 3: I know how good Buffalo is because I'm down watching 209 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:34,679 Speaker 3: Mike Washington and practice here at the University of Arkansas 210 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,120 Speaker 3: just tearing shit up right. I know what they're doing 211 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:38,760 Speaker 3: at Buffalo because I'm with you on the under but 212 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 3: I'm not gonna play, but I might play. Is Buffalo 213 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 3: beating Minnesota outright in week one? 214 00:10:43,400 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 2: I mean, it wouldn't shock me. It's week one and 215 00:10:46,920 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 2: like Minnesota is with the redshirt freshman quarterback, Buffalo bringing. 216 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 3: Back a lot we love Pete Limbo. 217 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:56,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, it wouldn't completely shock me. 218 00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 3: I'm playing Buffalo week one. 219 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:01,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll probably Buffalo week one two. All right, let's 220 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 2: move on to Wisconsin. We're in Wisconsin and this season 221 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:07,680 Speaker 2: we're shaking things up. There's going to be cheese and. 222 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 3: Beer and a lot of beer. 223 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:11,760 Speaker 1: When I say win, you say content Wi. 224 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:18,120 Speaker 2: This hasn't been amasing interesting season here for Luke Fickle. Wisconsin. 225 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:22,679 Speaker 2: You could find over five minus one forty out there 226 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:24,320 Speaker 2: if you wanted to go over that's the best price, 227 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:27,560 Speaker 2: But they're implied win totals right around five point three 228 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 2: five point twenty five, thirty five to one to make 229 00:11:30,480 --> 00:11:32,959 Speaker 2: the playoffs, one hundred and fifty to one to win 230 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:36,600 Speaker 2: the conference. Look, they bring a ton back top twenty 231 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:40,920 Speaker 2: returning production and Spargan because they added a quarterback also 232 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:43,679 Speaker 2: from Maryland and Billy Edwards who I think does fit 233 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 2: with the Grime system. Ye will he stay healthy? I mean, 234 00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:50,280 Speaker 2: Fikele hasn't had a quarterback stay healthy all year once 235 00:11:50,440 --> 00:11:52,599 Speaker 2: in three years. But Grimes is going to implement the 236 00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 2: RBO offense, reliable, violent offense, got a misdirection wide zone 237 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 2: run to set up play action. So it's a better 238 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:02,599 Speaker 2: fit than what Phil Logo was trying to do. This 239 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:05,360 Speaker 2: fits with what Wisconsin wants to do. They do lose 240 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:07,480 Speaker 2: Walker at running back, but they need some young guys 241 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:09,720 Speaker 2: to step up. But that kid what's his name, Yaka 242 00:12:09,720 --> 00:12:11,679 Speaker 2: and Elli, he's an athletic freak. They might use him 243 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:14,679 Speaker 2: in a bunch of different ways at wide receiver. You 244 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:15,840 Speaker 2: got a couple guys back. 245 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:16,600 Speaker 3: You add a. 246 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 2: Ballard from Ohio State who was intriguing offensive line, right 247 00:12:22,200 --> 00:12:25,080 Speaker 2: guard and left tackle, major questions. There's a battle at 248 00:12:25,160 --> 00:12:27,720 Speaker 2: right guard. You lost your left tackle to the NFL 249 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 2: and your right guard. The NFL. That's really what I'm 250 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 2: watching there. Your other three are back. Defensively, they got 251 00:12:34,280 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 2: a lot bigger. 252 00:12:35,120 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 3: This is what I like. 253 00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:38,760 Speaker 2: What Wisconsin did they? I mean last year they lost 254 00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:41,160 Speaker 2: a couple of their defensive linem into injuries and they 255 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:44,200 Speaker 2: just didn't have a ton of size. They added Walker 256 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:46,559 Speaker 2: from Western Michigan. I like him. This is like the 257 00:12:46,960 --> 00:12:50,079 Speaker 2: opposite end of the spectrum compared to Minnesota. I like 258 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:52,199 Speaker 2: some of these guys that they brought in. Sugs from LSU, 259 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:55,439 Speaker 2: Peterson from Tulane. They beefed up. They have more depth 260 00:12:56,000 --> 00:13:00,960 Speaker 2: defensive backfield. He lost Uf Hollman and Zachman. They're solid. 261 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 2: Forkern their other corner. I don't he's not eligible. He 262 00:13:05,040 --> 00:13:07,120 Speaker 2: might be. He's appealing it, so you're gonna lose him 263 00:13:07,120 --> 00:13:10,439 Speaker 2: at corner. He lost Wooler to the NFL, so you're 264 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 2: gonna need some guys to step up. They brought in 265 00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:15,760 Speaker 2: Hill from Miami. Matt Mitchell, not our producer, but the 266 00:13:15,800 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 2: outside linebacker coach and the special team coach. He's on 267 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:20,400 Speaker 2: He's on the hot seat along with Fickle. His jobs 268 00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 2: on the line because both struggled really bad last year. 269 00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:29,120 Speaker 2: They struggled immensely from a scheduling perspective, it's not easy. 270 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:31,200 Speaker 2: I will say they had the I think the number one, 271 00:13:31,520 --> 00:13:35,679 Speaker 2: number one hardest schedule in the country. Good thing is 272 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 2: they faced ten new quarterbacks. That's the second most. There's 273 00:13:38,360 --> 00:13:40,839 Speaker 2: some variants here, but they only get one of the 274 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:46,240 Speaker 2: projected bottom six. They don't play Perdue, Northwestern UCLA, Michigan State, 275 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 2: or Rutgers. And by the way, last year they only 276 00:13:49,840 --> 00:13:52,440 Speaker 2: beat Northwestern, Perdue and Rutgers in Big Ten play. They 277 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 2: don't get any of those three Batman and on con 278 00:13:56,400 --> 00:13:59,319 Speaker 2: play eight of the projected top eleven. And they're on 279 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:01,600 Speaker 2: a run of two twenty one against ranked teams they 280 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:04,840 Speaker 2: could face depending on how thing's break. Eight ranked teams 281 00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:09,840 Speaker 2: this year, there's no breaks after week two, maybe outside 282 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 2: of Maryland at home. You gotta start three and one. 283 00:14:12,679 --> 00:14:14,360 Speaker 2: You gotta beat Miami, you gotta beat Middle Tennessee. You 284 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 2: gotta be Maryland at home. You're gonna lose at Alabama. 285 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:19,760 Speaker 2: So is there are there three more wins here? I 286 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 2: don't know. I think they're gonna be better than people think. 287 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 2: Think they're gonna be much better on the front seven. 288 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:25,720 Speaker 2: I mean, this is a d that got no HAVOC 289 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 2: Class one hundred and twenty eighth and HAVOC thirteen tackles 290 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:32,479 Speaker 2: for loss dead last. Wisconsin was dead last in the country. Tapasquast, 291 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 2: you know how many sacks fat seventeen few since nineteen 292 00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,640 Speaker 2: eighty three. I think they will be better in that department. 293 00:14:39,000 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 2: I project them at five point eight eight, so you know, 294 00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:45,720 Speaker 2: like an over five minus one forty. Like where are 295 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 2: the wins coming? Like there's someone Illinois at home. I 296 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:52,040 Speaker 2: think Minnesota on the road is gettible, Washington at home 297 00:14:52,160 --> 00:14:55,360 Speaker 2: is gettible. I wouldn't be surprised if they knock off 298 00:14:55,840 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 2: Ohio State or in Iowa thinking that because they really 299 00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:04,240 Speaker 2: did improve the front seven of their defense. I think 300 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:07,080 Speaker 2: Wisconsin is getting back to a Bowl to start a 301 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:10,880 Speaker 2: new streak after their run of bowls ended last year. 302 00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 2: What do you think of the Badgers. 303 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 3: One of the biggest victories you can have in your 304 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 3: personal life is to know who you are and know 305 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 3: what makes you tick. Wisconsin, You've always known who you are. 306 00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:22,960 Speaker 3: Why the sam hell they went to Longo? I could 307 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 3: never figure it out. You know what the state produces 308 00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:28,600 Speaker 3: from a high school level, and you know what you're 309 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,280 Speaker 3: looking for and then all of a sudden, Alongo offense 310 00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:34,240 Speaker 3: to getting Jeff Grimes is getting back to exactly what 311 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:36,760 Speaker 3: Wisconsin football is going to be. I think it's a 312 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,040 Speaker 3: great shift. The ground and pound is back. Billy Edwards 313 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 3: has to stay healthy because he's going to play that 314 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:44,160 Speaker 3: Jaylen Daniels role at Kansas who had over three hundred 315 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 3: yards on designed runs last year for Kansas. So if 316 00:15:46,080 --> 00:15:47,880 Speaker 3: that's what Billy Edwards is going to be expected to do. 317 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 3: Both second year running backs Darian Dupre Dylan Jones a 318 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 3: list under two hundred fifty pounds. So it's not really 319 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:57,000 Speaker 3: the typical Wisconsin ron dain look that you're wanting to, 320 00:15:57,120 --> 00:15:59,480 Speaker 3: you know, out of this backfield, can they handle a 321 00:15:59,520 --> 00:16:01,960 Speaker 3: full season? That's my worry, Stuck is like the size 322 00:16:01,960 --> 00:16:04,000 Speaker 3: of these running backs and then Billy Edwards and what 323 00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,080 Speaker 3: they're going to do with their body. Do you survive 324 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 3: the Alabama game? Are you healthy enough to win against 325 00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 3: Maryland the next week? You should be. You're going to 326 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 3: be twenty point favorites. There are three returning starters in 327 00:16:13,920 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 3: the offensive line. There's one hundred and eleven starts. Is 328 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:19,560 Speaker 3: that a good thing? I mean the big play, I mean, 329 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 3: there's their pass blocking was fine, their lineyards fell below 330 00:16:23,000 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 3: top fifty. That's going to improve here with Jeff Grimes 331 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 3: and his schemes former offensive line coach before he was 332 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:29,320 Speaker 3: a Baylor before you know, when he was a BYU, 333 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 3: So you know, I need to see remarkable improvement in 334 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 3: the box or against Miami Ohio Middle Tennessee from a 335 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 3: lineyards perspective, I think then I'll be ready to bet 336 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:42,000 Speaker 3: them and other spots on the schedule on the defensive side, 337 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 3: one of the higher I think why I make this 338 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:46,400 Speaker 3: six point three versus your number that's in the fives 339 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 3: is because of the experiences coming back and the additions 340 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 3: that are coming in through the portal. Their corners. For 341 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 3: Quarion Ricardo Hollman, they had nine combined PBUs. Outside linebacker 342 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:58,280 Speaker 3: Christian Allegro was a second leading tackler on the team, 343 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 3: one of the best in the Big Ten, and Trustle's 344 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:03,960 Speaker 3: two four five heavy defensive back scheme. It limits EPA. 345 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 3: They were top fifteen defensive rushing past EPA. But they 346 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 3: didn't You mentioned the havoc number one hundred and twenty eighth, 347 00:17:09,880 --> 00:17:12,639 Speaker 3: like we're just not doing anything here about taking the 348 00:17:12,680 --> 00:17:14,880 Speaker 3: ball away. That has to improve one hundred and twenty 349 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 3: first a contested catch eight. You're this is just fundamentals. 350 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:20,119 Speaker 3: I mean, in no way should a Wisconsin defense in 351 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 3: a secondary be one hundred near bottom fifteen and create 352 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,400 Speaker 3: a contested catch. So they've got to get back to fundamentals. 353 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 3: We'll see if Trustle can get that done. You're right, 354 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 3: the schedule doesn't get any easy for Fickle. Does the 355 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 3: administration kind of give him a pass again? I mean, 356 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,879 Speaker 3: Baman and non con at Michigan in October fourth, Iowa 357 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:39,920 Speaker 3: and Washington come to Camp Randle, both off of a 358 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,840 Speaker 3: bye week. Ohio states sandwiched in between. 359 00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 2: At Oregon there two there's no breaks. 360 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:48,920 Speaker 3: Is the is the administration patient of a fickle I'm 361 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:51,120 Speaker 3: not sure if he gets another year. I make it six. 362 00:17:52,040 --> 00:17:54,040 Speaker 2: But he just made a fatal flow going with Grimes 363 00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 2: completely that might end up costing. 364 00:17:56,440 --> 00:17:57,760 Speaker 3: And you know, there's a lot of rumors out there 365 00:17:57,800 --> 00:18:00,879 Speaker 3: floating around, like, I mean, look Aticle's assistance when he 366 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:04,159 Speaker 3: was at Cincinnati, right, Marcus Freeman, what he's doing at 367 00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:06,720 Speaker 3: Notre Dame. But I make it six point three. I'd 368 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:08,160 Speaker 3: play over if I had to play the win total. 369 00:18:08,440 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 3: Let me say one more thing, on this. I think 370 00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:12,400 Speaker 3: that number in week one is not a good number. 371 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 3: I think it should be another I think it should 372 00:18:14,040 --> 00:18:16,200 Speaker 3: be at least a touchdown higher against Miama Ohio. Miama 373 00:18:16,280 --> 00:18:19,640 Speaker 3: Ohio not returning a lot, not got a lot going 374 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:22,119 Speaker 3: on in the MAC. But what Grimes wants to do 375 00:18:22,280 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 3: and with the health level they should be at in 376 00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 3: week one, they should I have a steam hole. 377 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 2: Going to be a problem early on. That's the only 378 00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:31,359 Speaker 2: way I could look there. But we'll talk much more 379 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,200 Speaker 2: about that in Week zero and Week one preview podcasts. 380 00:18:34,359 --> 00:18:37,879 Speaker 1: Let's move on to Rutgers, the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. 381 00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:42,120 Speaker 3: How about the scallt nights of Rutgers. 382 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,480 Speaker 2: Rutgers win total. If you want to go over best, 383 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 2: you can find it over five and a half minus 384 00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:50,320 Speaker 2: one forty four, So implied, you're getting close to six 385 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:52,920 Speaker 2: twenty five to one to make the playoff, two hundred 386 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 2: and fifty to one to win the conference. Best you 387 00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:57,280 Speaker 2: can find out there. Look, the schedule gets much tougher. 388 00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:00,119 Speaker 2: That's what I'm gonna start with. There's last year, no 389 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:04,160 Speaker 2: Ohio State, no Oregon, no Michigan, no Penn State. Well 390 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:07,520 Speaker 2: they get the top three this year they play Oregon, 391 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 2: they're at Ohio State, they host Penn State to end 392 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 2: the year, so the schedule gets much tougher. Kenn, this 393 00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:16,000 Speaker 2: team get the three straight bolts. That's face we were betting. 394 00:19:16,040 --> 00:19:17,719 Speaker 2: If you want to bet the win total, gotta pay 395 00:19:17,760 --> 00:19:19,400 Speaker 2: a little juice for it. And if they do, they're 396 00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:21,480 Speaker 2: probably going to the Pinstripe Bowl. And last year, by 397 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:23,760 Speaker 2: the way, they got Maryland and Sparti late in the 398 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,960 Speaker 2: year who basically quit and they were pretty lucky against Washington, 399 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:29,960 Speaker 2: as you know all too well. This year, you do 400 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:35,040 Speaker 2: have Maryland late, but you're at Illinois, at Ohio State, 401 00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,840 Speaker 2: Penn State, Oregon, all in the second half of your schedule. 402 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:39,440 Speaker 2: So I think that they're going to go three to 403 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:43,159 Speaker 2: no non conference Ohio, Miami, Norfolk. They could face up 404 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:46,120 Speaker 2: to six ranked teams, probably four or five, and they're 405 00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:48,680 Speaker 2: zero to forty versus ranked team since two thousand and nine. 406 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:55,560 Speaker 2: Crazy calick Manis is back the Greek rifle experience quarterback 407 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:57,680 Speaker 2: in the Big Ten. That's good to have. Although his 408 00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:02,240 Speaker 2: ceiling isn't the highest. He had a decent year last year. Yeah, Minangai, 409 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:05,200 Speaker 2: he's gone to the NFL. You bring in CJ. Campbell, 410 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,920 Speaker 2: from Fau Raymond. His back running back room definitely be 411 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 2: down a little bit. You lost some receivers, but duff 412 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 2: and stronger back. You had Sheffield from North Texas, so 413 00:20:13,640 --> 00:20:18,720 Speaker 2: I like this Rutgers wide receiver room. Offensive line, the 414 00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:20,800 Speaker 2: tackles are the biggest question for me. You lost your 415 00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:23,439 Speaker 2: left tackle Pierce to the NFL. You might be starting 416 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:26,639 Speaker 2: a Lafayette transfer left tackle in Langsdale, so you might 417 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,119 Speaker 2: be going from an NFL left tackle to a Lafayette 418 00:20:29,119 --> 00:20:32,840 Speaker 2: transferred left tackle is a huge position to watch. Defensively, 419 00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 2: you lose some guys, but there were so many injuries, 420 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:40,640 Speaker 2: so many injuries. I like their additions on the defensive line, 421 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 2: really sharp ads like jmu Ads, the Weaver from Ohio. 422 00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 2: I really like they needed to get more pressure. So 423 00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:50,000 Speaker 2: this is a solid team. It's not gonna win. The 424 00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:53,679 Speaker 2: Big Ten schedule does get tougher. My biggest questions how 425 00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 2: big is the drop off at running back, left tackle, 426 00:20:55,800 --> 00:21:00,399 Speaker 2: specifically can Walker improve it? Linebacker? And then the defensive 427 00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:01,960 Speaker 2: line in their defense backield It's going to come down 428 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 2: to their transfers hitting. What do you see with Rutgers 429 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:05,440 Speaker 2: this year? 430 00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 3: The biggest handicap of ruggers, and why I continued to 431 00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:12,480 Speaker 3: play them last year consistently all the time as they 432 00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 3: were top five and havoc allowed. They are extremely well 433 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,400 Speaker 3: coached under Greg Ciano with Kirk Saraka and then Rob 434 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,719 Speaker 3: Smith as a defensive coordinator. They're extremely well coached. They 435 00:21:20,800 --> 00:21:23,800 Speaker 3: don't make mistakes, and last year they won four games 436 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:25,840 Speaker 3: outright as an underdog. Well, look, I don't try to 437 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 3: hide from who we are or what we are. We've 438 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,879 Speaker 3: been playing football longer than anybody else on the planet. 439 00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:33,400 Speaker 3: But it's time. It's time to get going, it's time 440 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:35,239 Speaker 3: to make a mark. So when you see a lot 441 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:37,159 Speaker 3: of coin flips on this and we're asking after the 442 00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 3: first three in the non con can they get there 443 00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:42,680 Speaker 3: to six, my answer is yes, I'm taking over five 444 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:44,080 Speaker 3: and a half minus one twenty five. 445 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:45,760 Speaker 2: I'm at six point twenty five. 446 00:21:45,800 --> 00:21:48,399 Speaker 3: For what it's worth, I have full confidence they're going 447 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:50,160 Speaker 3: to be able to keep that havoc allowed number within 448 00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:52,520 Speaker 3: the top five. Now, I have problems with Athan caliac 449 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,560 Speaker 3: Manus and his numbers. Even in Kirk Saraka's second season 450 00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:57,040 Speaker 3: with him, he had an eighteen to seven t D 451 00:21:57,119 --> 00:21:59,200 Speaker 3: to I INT, but more turnover worth he plays and 452 00:21:59,280 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 3: big time throws. Really it was on blitz downs. When 453 00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:05,440 Speaker 3: Caliakmanna sees blitz his turnover worthy play right goes from 454 00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:09,639 Speaker 3: one point six to five point seven percent. Accuracy is 455 00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,640 Speaker 3: a huge issue. You know, they were fiftieth and tackle grading. 456 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,679 Speaker 3: That's that's coaching fundamentals. I expect that to stay. They 457 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,320 Speaker 3: were fiftieth and contested catch right, that's coaching fundamentals. I 458 00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 3: expect that to stay. But you know, there are a 459 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:22,280 Speaker 3: lot of questions on the back end of that defense. 460 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:24,720 Speaker 3: They're going to cruise in the non conference game. I'm 461 00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:27,040 Speaker 3: going over five and a half. I think the coaching 462 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,680 Speaker 3: staff makes the deficiencies we see in these numbers not 463 00:22:30,880 --> 00:22:33,639 Speaker 3: mean as much. Every everywhere Hiano goes, it's a very 464 00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 3: well coached team. So I'm going over five and a half. 465 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:38,439 Speaker 3: Numerous spots to get out of this hedge spots as 466 00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 3: far as coin flips go. But at the same time, 467 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,240 Speaker 3: they won four games outright as underdogs. To me, that's 468 00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 3: coaching with this roster. So I'm going to take them 469 00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:45,680 Speaker 3: over five and a half. 470 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:49,280 Speaker 2: All right, let's move on. Let's talk a little Spardy. 471 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:53,040 Speaker 1: The Michigan State Spartans best. 472 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 2: You can find out there if you want to go 473 00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:56,920 Speaker 2: over over five and a half minus one thirty five 474 00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,400 Speaker 2: eighteen to one to make the Collechwell cloff two hundred 475 00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 2: to one the best to win the Big Ten, implied 476 00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:06,119 Speaker 2: wind total is basically like five point seven five. So 477 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 2: you're betting on them, paying a little bit and betting 478 00:23:09,040 --> 00:23:10,480 Speaker 2: on them if they're gonna go to a bowl or not. 479 00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:13,080 Speaker 2: If you want to bet their win total. The bullish 480 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,360 Speaker 2: case is this is year two of Smith and his coordinators, 481 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,600 Speaker 2: end of Aiden Chiles at quarterback. You go through a 482 00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:23,080 Speaker 2: full install, you have a year under your belt, and 483 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,639 Speaker 2: their top twenty in returning production just like Rutgers is 484 00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,960 Speaker 2: so they bring a ton back. The teams that are 485 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:31,080 Speaker 2: in the top twenty returning production in the Big Ten 486 00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:37,160 Speaker 2: are Illinois, Wisconsin, Rutgers, and Michigan State. Chiles is back. 487 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:39,840 Speaker 2: He needs to improve a lot to work on thirteen 488 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:42,920 Speaker 2: big time throws last year twenty turnover really plays. He 489 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:44,879 Speaker 2: needs to work on his timing, reading coverages. 490 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:46,840 Speaker 3: You know, his sacks. 491 00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,360 Speaker 2: He took too many sacks the red zone. He needs 492 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:53,200 Speaker 2: to be better. He had fumbling issues, but he was 493 00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:56,200 Speaker 2: pressured on forty two percent of his dropbacks that was 494 00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:59,359 Speaker 2: bottom ten in the country, so he wasn't getting a 495 00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:02,399 Speaker 2: ton of help. Does lose two backs of the NFL. 496 00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,200 Speaker 2: They bring in Tolliver for Sack State, but their running 497 00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:09,000 Speaker 2: back room probably takes a step back. Wide receiver. You 498 00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:11,560 Speaker 2: lose Foster to the NFL and Johnson in North Carolina. 499 00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:13,520 Speaker 2: Marsh's back, he's a stud. And they bring in some 500 00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:17,879 Speaker 2: guys I like Namlily McCrae and Kelly Velling back at 501 00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,239 Speaker 2: tight end, and your other top two. I think their 502 00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:25,600 Speaker 2: pass catchers could actually be improved. Your offensive line, you 503 00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 2: lose your top two by far and Miller and Newman 504 00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,800 Speaker 2: who went to the NFL. Baldwin's gone, but he was bad. 505 00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:35,720 Speaker 2: You bring in some transfers. They do have a good 506 00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 2: offensive line coach, but the offensive line was just so 507 00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:38,800 Speaker 2: bad last year. 508 00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,040 Speaker 3: Injured in freshman, yeah, yeah, injured. 509 00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:43,119 Speaker 2: The same thing happened to the defense. They got Like 510 00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:44,560 Speaker 2: in the second they got a lot of freshmen who 511 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:46,439 Speaker 2: got killed by injuries. They got some freshmen who had 512 00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:48,640 Speaker 2: some experience, Like this is a team that just didn't 513 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:49,920 Speaker 2: bring in They brought in a lot of guys in 514 00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:51,760 Speaker 2: the port, but a lot of lower level they're not 515 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,280 Speaker 2: recruiting very well. They need to get more pressure. They 516 00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:57,119 Speaker 2: went six straight games without a sack last year, so 517 00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,399 Speaker 2: how much of a bump in Jonathan Smith, who we 518 00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,080 Speaker 2: both respect give them in year two? Last year was 519 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,480 Speaker 2: a new quarterback, brand new offense, brand new defense, ton 520 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:08,280 Speaker 2: of injuries. They still won five. They just got to 521 00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:09,680 Speaker 2: get a better run game and they got to get 522 00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:14,399 Speaker 2: more pressure. I'm not sure they fully addressed either. They 523 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:16,080 Speaker 2: got to be better in the red zone them both ends. 524 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:17,880 Speaker 2: So this is a tricky team to figure out. There's 525 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:23,000 Speaker 2: no easy road games like at USC, at Nebraska, at Indiana, 526 00:25:23,160 --> 00:25:27,600 Speaker 2: at Minnesota, at Iowa. So like their ceiling is probably seven, 527 00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:31,000 Speaker 2: the swing game is probably BC in Week two at 528 00:25:31,040 --> 00:25:33,600 Speaker 2: home like that, I would assume that might end up 529 00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:35,520 Speaker 2: determining whether they good to a bowl or the win total. 530 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:39,200 Speaker 2: They only have three Big Ten home games in Spartan Stadium, 531 00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 2: and Michigan and Penn State are two of them. They 532 00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:44,680 Speaker 2: only get two of the bottom seven in the Big Ten. 533 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, my numbers are right on. 534 00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:51,800 Speaker 2: I'm five, seven to three, so nothing for me. There's 535 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:53,440 Speaker 2: a lot to work on here. I don't It's just 536 00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:56,240 Speaker 2: not a very talented roster overall, who has the better 537 00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,440 Speaker 2: year two jump Jed Fish or Jonathan Smith Fish. 538 00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:02,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree. I don't make this win total leaving 539 00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 3: up at five and you know, one hundred and twenty 540 00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,119 Speaker 3: six and pass blocking. If you see improvement on that 541 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:11,000 Speaker 3: child's numbers obviously will improve and then their power rating 542 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:12,879 Speaker 3: will improve. So I think it's one of those games. 543 00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:15,240 Speaker 3: I'm sorry. I think it's one of those teams where 544 00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,040 Speaker 3: the Spartans can come out against Western Michigan and it 545 00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:18,920 Speaker 3: could be one of those power rating jumps by like 546 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:20,800 Speaker 3: five points in the first week if I see what 547 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:22,680 Speaker 3: I want to see, and then again with Boston College 548 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:25,840 Speaker 3: next week. Maybe you and I are not so loud 549 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,560 Speaker 3: about it, and the gambling market isn't is heavy on it. 550 00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:30,480 Speaker 3: Maybe we see something in the box that allows us 551 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:32,359 Speaker 3: to get in against Boston College and we're rising the 552 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:36,360 Speaker 3: prs even more. That's the ceiling and that could blow 553 00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:39,160 Speaker 3: away my win total numbers. But at the same time, 554 00:26:39,240 --> 00:26:41,760 Speaker 3: this Tolliver kid coming in from sax State, this isn't skataboo. 555 00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:44,000 Speaker 3: I mean two point eight yards after first contact, he 556 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:47,440 Speaker 3: only created thirty three missed tackles, one hundred and eighty 557 00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:50,119 Speaker 3: two rushing attempts. That is not a high rate of juking. 558 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:53,359 Speaker 3: You mentioned the sack rate pass rusher was one hundred 559 00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:56,320 Speaker 3: and twenty ninth. Again, if you get the proper number 560 00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:58,119 Speaker 3: of players, if you get defensive tackles that are three 561 00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:00,200 Speaker 3: hundred pounds that are creating pressure, then you wipe away 562 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:01,840 Speaker 3: all of these numbers that they had last year because 563 00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:05,040 Speaker 3: it was year zero, a year negative one. There's only 564 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,399 Speaker 3: four Big Ten home games here. I don't expect them 565 00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:11,280 Speaker 3: to be within two touchdowns in six of eight conference games. 566 00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,359 Speaker 3: I'm going under here, under five and a half. I 567 00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:16,919 Speaker 3: think it's still out there at plus money plus one fifteen, 568 00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,640 Speaker 3: I think in some places. But I'm ready to move 569 00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:22,400 Speaker 3: them and their projection if we see the proper things 570 00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:23,880 Speaker 3: that we need in the box score, from a line 571 00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,720 Speaker 3: yards perspective, from a pass walking perspective, and from creating 572 00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:27,719 Speaker 3: pressures on defense. 573 00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:30,399 Speaker 2: Yeah, we're way often. I starting power writing the guy 574 00:27:30,480 --> 00:27:32,879 Speaker 2: michign sate favorite of our PC, but I'm low on 575 00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:36,359 Speaker 2: BC and I'm giving Michigan State benefit of doubt. Some 576 00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,680 Speaker 2: places that could be off, we'll see. They were definitely 577 00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:40,639 Speaker 2: snake bit last year in the number of ways. But 578 00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:42,720 Speaker 2: Giles has got to be better. We'll see what Smith 579 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:45,080 Speaker 2: can do. By the way, so well, you'll start to 580 00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:48,119 Speaker 2: see us loading in some bets, continue to loading some 581 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:50,240 Speaker 2: bets in the app. And as a reminder, if you 582 00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:52,119 Speaker 2: want to see every college will pick track from me, 583 00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:55,160 Speaker 2: Colin and Duck this season, you need the Action Network app. 584 00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:57,840 Speaker 2: We've got some huge improvements, some things that I'm really 585 00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:01,160 Speaker 2: excited about and updates coming in the weeks ahead, which 586 00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:05,040 Speaker 2: we're excited to discuss in a few weeks. But to 587 00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:06,320 Speaker 2: get the most out of the app, you'll need to 588 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,439 Speaker 2: be an Action Pro subscriber. With Action Pro, you get 589 00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,640 Speaker 2: real time pick alerts from our entire action Owork team 590 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:14,120 Speaker 2: of experts, plus Action Pro projections power by Sean Kerner 591 00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 2: and our predictive analytics team. And that's just a tip 592 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:19,280 Speaker 2: of the Iceberg. BBOC listeners can say twenty dours off 593 00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:21,879 Speaker 2: the annual price of Action Pro. Just go to Actionnework 594 00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:25,520 Speaker 2: dot Com slash pro and use code BBOC twenty. That's 595 00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:30,159 Speaker 2: Actionnetwork dot Com slash Pro and use code BBOC twenty 596 00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:33,040 Speaker 2: for twenty dollars off the annual price of Action Pro. 597 00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:39,560 Speaker 2: Let's move on to UCLA. UCLA Year two de Shan Foster, 598 00:28:39,880 --> 00:28:40,600 Speaker 2: head coach. 599 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 1: The UCLA Bruins. 600 00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 2: I'm sure you guys don't know too much about UCLA 601 00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:46,680 Speaker 2: but our football program. 602 00:28:46,800 --> 00:28:55,680 Speaker 3: But we're in LA. It's US in USC There is. 603 00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:58,520 Speaker 2: A new OC do you know, Sinceario comes in from Indiana. 604 00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:04,840 Speaker 2: They're DC Last year after Danton Lynn Ikaika Maloy. I 605 00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:07,160 Speaker 2: think he did a great job, I thought, but he 606 00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,360 Speaker 2: had a lot of talent, a lot of talent that 607 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:14,760 Speaker 2: went to the NFL. Five drafted to the NFL from 608 00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:20,800 Speaker 2: this defense, which was so underrated. You lost your defensive tackle, 609 00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:22,800 Speaker 2: well they lost air tight end to the NFL. Then 610 00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:27,040 Speaker 2: four on the defense, your defensive tackle, your edge, and 611 00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:33,280 Speaker 2: two linebackers. So it's I think there's going to be 612 00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 2: a drop off here, especially from a pressure perspective, and 613 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:38,800 Speaker 2: I think this defense is going to take a step back. 614 00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 2: I mean, they lost some really really talented players. I'm 615 00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:45,200 Speaker 2: not what they were like relying They need some depth 616 00:29:45,240 --> 00:29:47,160 Speaker 2: guys to step up, and they were lying on a 617 00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:51,520 Speaker 2: lot of these powerful cast offs that either did nothing 618 00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,000 Speaker 2: or were just not productive in the portal. I don't 619 00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:55,760 Speaker 2: think that was this is the right year to do that. 620 00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,840 Speaker 2: I just don't see a ton of talent on this roster. Niko, 621 00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,400 Speaker 2: I'm Malava comes in from Tennessee. I'm not a fan. 622 00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:06,040 Speaker 2: I mean, if you like Nico, then this guy had 623 00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:08,800 Speaker 2: five touchdowns in six games versus winning FBS teams last 624 00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:12,440 Speaker 2: year with the Tennessee offense. Now you have the UCLA 625 00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:17,320 Speaker 2: offense who loses its top two backs. You lose, you're 626 00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,120 Speaker 2: a bunch of receivers, You lost a tight end of 627 00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,520 Speaker 2: the NFL, and then your offensive line. I know there's 628 00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:25,080 Speaker 2: a ton of injuries. They were shifting around a lot, 629 00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:27,440 Speaker 2: but look at the guys they brought in. I don't 630 00:30:27,480 --> 00:30:30,960 Speaker 2: believe in any of them, and then defensively lost a 631 00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:33,280 Speaker 2: bunch of guys in the NFL. I don't like this 632 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:35,840 Speaker 2: team at all. I don't just didn't like a lot 633 00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:37,400 Speaker 2: of what they did. This wasn't a year to rely 634 00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:40,440 Speaker 2: on the portal if you're a team like UCLA. Last 635 00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,600 Speaker 2: year they had five wins. They went five and two, 636 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,160 Speaker 2: five and two in one session games. Their five wins 637 00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:51,000 Speaker 2: were by twenty three points over Hawaii Rutgers, who had 638 00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:55,320 Speaker 2: a ton of injuries, Nebraska Iowa their quarterback got hurt, Fresno, 639 00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:57,800 Speaker 2: who had a ton of injuries. They did lose the 640 00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,120 Speaker 2: UFC in Minnesota late to be fair, but they are 641 00:31:00,120 --> 00:31:02,920 Speaker 2: pretty lucky. One session games they got to five wins. 642 00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:04,920 Speaker 2: I'm not a Nico guy. I think his defense takes 643 00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:09,880 Speaker 2: a step back. The weapons not really a believer in 644 00:31:10,120 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 2: the offensive line is still going to be bad. I mean, 645 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:18,080 Speaker 2: the only gimmes on the schedule are New Mexico at 646 00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:20,880 Speaker 2: home and maybe Maryland vicious schedule one of the ten 647 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:22,840 Speaker 2: hardest in the country. You only get four Big Ten 648 00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:25,600 Speaker 2: home games, although one road game is at USC. I mean, 649 00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:27,520 Speaker 2: it wouldn't shock me if this team went three to 650 00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:31,040 Speaker 2: nine under For me, I mean, how I'm super low 651 00:31:31,080 --> 00:31:34,480 Speaker 2: in this team the mat I'm at like four point two, 652 00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,600 Speaker 2: so I'm definitely a significant amount lower than the market 653 00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 2: who is fading the shit out of them Week one 654 00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:42,280 Speaker 2: against Utah, that. 655 00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:43,800 Speaker 3: Was the very first play that went into the action 656 00:31:43,920 --> 00:31:46,719 Speaker 3: app was I took Utah minus one thirty Week one 657 00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 3: against UCLA and that number is long gone. I don't 658 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:51,920 Speaker 3: know what's going on with i'm lava family. I mean, 659 00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:55,840 Speaker 3: there's some series Lonzo ball stuff going on here. Madden. 660 00:31:55,920 --> 00:31:58,640 Speaker 3: I'm Alva is going to be the backup quarterback at UCLA. 661 00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:01,560 Speaker 3: He was at Arkansas and was supposed to challenge Taylor 662 00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:05,920 Speaker 3: Green for the starting position, but Dad said, no, you 663 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,000 Speaker 3: were joining your brother in the portal and you're coming 664 00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:12,560 Speaker 3: out to UCLA. I heard the numbers that Nico was 665 00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:17,560 Speaker 3: looking for in the portal. They were laughable, but Ucla 666 00:32:17,640 --> 00:32:21,320 Speaker 3: bit and I think it's one of the worst transfer 667 00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:25,680 Speaker 3: portal moves in all power For he had zero escapability, 668 00:32:25,760 --> 00:32:28,760 Speaker 3: a twenty six percent pressure to sack ratio. Now he 669 00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:30,800 Speaker 3: gets an offensive line that could be the worst in 670 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:34,160 Speaker 3: the Big Ten, a hodgepodge of journeyman portal players with 671 00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:37,560 Speaker 3: limited experience. I mean, Foster's claiming this is going to 672 00:32:37,600 --> 00:32:40,240 Speaker 3: be a balanced offense with Tino sincere coming, but Tino 673 00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,720 Speaker 3: Cinceri is known for being with Signetti and calling a 674 00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:45,760 Speaker 3: power run game, not really so much passing the ball. 675 00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:51,440 Speaker 3: Nico can't escape pressure whatsoever. He's got, you know, cinderblocks 676 00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:54,320 Speaker 3: for feet, and so we're gonna rely on the running game, 677 00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:56,360 Speaker 3: which is running back jalen Berger. I mean, he's had 678 00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:58,880 Speaker 3: a decline in his yards after first contact every single 679 00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:01,480 Speaker 3: stop from Wisconsin. Chi can stay JV and Thomas a 680 00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:04,720 Speaker 3: Cal three point one yards after first contact, a low 681 00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:07,520 Speaker 3: rate of creating miss tackles. I don't see it in 682 00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:10,080 Speaker 3: this offense whatsoever. You're gonna be ground based with Tino 683 00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,200 Speaker 3: Sincere at least have some running backs that could do that, 684 00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,160 Speaker 3: and you don't, So you're gonna end up in passing 685 00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:17,120 Speaker 3: downs and then you're gonna see Nico's feet, and then 686 00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:21,080 Speaker 3: I just don't see a lot coming out of this offense. Defense. 687 00:33:21,120 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 3: You've already mentioned they lost their top eleven tacklers. The 688 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:26,640 Speaker 3: secondary is all from the portal from Morgan State, Miami 689 00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:30,560 Speaker 3: ucf ol miss. No improvement expected from the front seven 690 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 3: after ranking one hundred and fourteenth in pass rush. I mean, 691 00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:38,200 Speaker 3: I would think Melow, the defensive coordinator. He's in his 692 00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:40,120 Speaker 3: second year here. They finished one hundred and twenty third 693 00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:44,080 Speaker 3: in defensive finishing drives, arguably a better defense last year 694 00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:46,680 Speaker 3: than they have now. There's not much room to go 695 00:33:46,720 --> 00:33:50,520 Speaker 3: down in defensive finishing drives, but we're headed there, and 696 00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:56,720 Speaker 3: I think Aucla is an unmitigated disaster. I think being 697 00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:59,920 Speaker 3: the only school, let me just think about this, the 698 00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:03,160 Speaker 3: only school that opened up your wallet for Nico. Nico 699 00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:09,120 Speaker 3: was shopped everywhere everywhere. I heard the numbers, I heard 700 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,800 Speaker 3: the teams, and you say they bit on the numbers 701 00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:13,840 Speaker 3: that they wanted, and then Madden got pulled out of 702 00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:16,799 Speaker 3: Arkansas because Dad was like, we're all going to LA 703 00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:18,920 Speaker 3: to live to La life. Utah is gonna pound the 704 00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:21,120 Speaker 3: shit out of them. You're gonna put Nico against Morgan 705 00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:22,600 Speaker 3: Scalley's four two five in Week one. 706 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,480 Speaker 2: Good luck, yeah under for me on UCLA. 707 00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:32,600 Speaker 1: Let's move on to Northwestern, the Northwestern Wildcats. 708 00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:36,719 Speaker 2: Northwestern you can go over three and a half superjuice 709 00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,320 Speaker 2: or over four even money is out there, eighty to 710 00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:40,920 Speaker 2: one to make the playoffs, five hundred to one to 711 00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,400 Speaker 2: win the Big Ten. It's an interesting team. They run 712 00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:45,480 Speaker 2: in Preston Stone, former SMU quarterback. 713 00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:46,000 Speaker 3: I love him. 714 00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:47,560 Speaker 2: I love Preston Stone. 715 00:34:55,880 --> 00:34:56,520 Speaker 3: I like it. 716 00:34:56,880 --> 00:34:59,160 Speaker 2: I think he's finally healthy. They get their running backs, 717 00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:02,600 Speaker 2: pack lose both their top receivers. One of the NFL 718 00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:05,319 Speaker 2: big question market receiver sone is a great deep ball. 719 00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:07,000 Speaker 2: Does he other receivers to get the ball. That is 720 00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:10,480 Speaker 2: a major question their receivers. It's like they brought them 721 00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,520 Speaker 2: to Stanford South Dakota State transfer. The offensive line has 722 00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:15,880 Speaker 2: some questions. They have a really good tackle back. They 723 00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:19,240 Speaker 2: do get their center back from injury. The backup was horrible. 724 00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,319 Speaker 2: They're right, they're one of their tackles has gone who 725 00:35:21,360 --> 00:35:23,719 Speaker 2: was horrible. I like a couple of the transfers they 726 00:35:23,719 --> 00:35:25,799 Speaker 2: brought in. Their offensive line has some potential, but they 727 00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:29,520 Speaker 2: got to figure it out. Defensively. I like the defensive line. 728 00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:33,200 Speaker 2: I like the room there linebacker. You have some guys 729 00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:35,799 Speaker 2: back and added some guys in the portal who I liked. 730 00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,680 Speaker 2: The secondary need some young guys to step up. Although 731 00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:42,440 Speaker 2: I like Davis that Jacksonville State corner transfers started his 732 00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:45,719 Speaker 2: career at Clemson, but you you lost a lot. You 733 00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,440 Speaker 2: lost the safety to Baylor, a corner to Oregon, and 734 00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:50,680 Speaker 2: then Coco Zima, who wasn't great, but he was there 735 00:35:50,719 --> 00:35:53,480 Speaker 2: for six years. I can't believe. It just feels weird 736 00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:54,640 Speaker 2: that he's not going to be in the back end 737 00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:56,520 Speaker 2: of that defense. I think the deed's going to be 738 00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,600 Speaker 2: fairly salty. It's ben but don't break to the extreme. 739 00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:03,960 Speaker 2: But there's questions wide receiver in particular, one of the 740 00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:08,680 Speaker 2: tackle spots. And then they're gonna have young, youngish dbs 741 00:36:09,640 --> 00:36:13,920 Speaker 2: or you know, guys coming up a level. Last year 742 00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:16,200 Speaker 2: they only beat Maryland and pur doing big ten play. 743 00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:19,880 Speaker 2: This year. They have a tough Big Ten slate. They 744 00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:21,960 Speaker 2: do have five Big Ten home games, but three are 745 00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:24,799 Speaker 2: on the Lake and two are at Wrigley. The good 746 00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,360 Speaker 2: thing is there's not a lot of traveling overall, like 747 00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:30,480 Speaker 2: they go to USC but other than that, they kind 748 00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:34,960 Speaker 2: of are in a box. You know, after week one 749 00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:39,000 Speaker 2: at two lane, but that's week one, so there's not 750 00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:42,799 Speaker 2: a ton of traveling here. Their first five are pretty manageable. 751 00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:46,439 Speaker 2: You know, you're at two lane. They're gonna be dogs, 752 00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,839 Speaker 2: but they could win that game Western Illinois at home, 753 00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:52,719 Speaker 2: Ucla at home. We just talked about them Ulm at home, 754 00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:55,719 Speaker 2: so you know, then they go to pen State, which 755 00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:57,520 Speaker 2: they're gonna lose. There's a chance that they could start 756 00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:02,160 Speaker 2: three and three. If everything goes right, they steal that 757 00:37:02,239 --> 00:37:03,080 Speaker 2: game at two lane. 758 00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:06,120 Speaker 3: That number is short and it's moving towards Northwestern Boor 759 00:37:06,160 --> 00:37:06,400 Speaker 3: and too. 760 00:37:06,480 --> 00:37:08,319 Speaker 2: Yeah, I like them week one of them. I've been 761 00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:12,040 Speaker 2: waiting for pods to bet my week zero in week 762 00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:13,640 Speaker 2: one on the app. 763 00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:14,919 Speaker 3: And I think that one's moving. 764 00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:19,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm mad I didn't get seven, So I mean 765 00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:25,440 Speaker 2: I I project four point four, so they're implied as 766 00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:28,200 Speaker 2: like close to four, So I would lean over here 767 00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:32,239 Speaker 2: with Northwestern, I think that they should. They're gonna get 768 00:37:32,239 --> 00:37:34,600 Speaker 2: Western Illinois. I think they're gonna get Ucla. I think 769 00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:38,160 Speaker 2: they're gonna get Ulm at home. That's three wins. I 770 00:37:38,200 --> 00:37:39,759 Speaker 2: think they're good for one, and then you're gonna be 771 00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:44,080 Speaker 2: a Purdue at home as well. Like there's your four wins. 772 00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:47,000 Speaker 2: In my opinion, there's some opportunities here. This is at 773 00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:47,960 Speaker 2: least a four win team. 774 00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:50,920 Speaker 3: Yeah, but you gotta find so the schedule. I couldn't 775 00:37:50,920 --> 00:37:52,360 Speaker 3: really find four wins. And that's the problem. 776 00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:57,959 Speaker 2: Western Illinois, Ucla at Ulm, and Purdue not four wins. 777 00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:00,960 Speaker 3: I mean, I just I make Ucla like higher, like 778 00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:01,440 Speaker 3: a touch. 779 00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:03,680 Speaker 2: I'd like a touchdown favor in Northwestern. 780 00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:06,000 Speaker 3: I'm not saying I believe in it. Preston Stone has 781 00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:07,680 Speaker 3: got to be the version of himself two years ago 782 00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:09,520 Speaker 3: when he had thirty three big time throws in thirteen 783 00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:11,879 Speaker 3: turnover worthy plays. Right, he's got to be the twenty 784 00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:12,680 Speaker 3: twenty three version. 785 00:38:13,320 --> 00:38:15,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Stone Age. 786 00:38:15,560 --> 00:38:18,239 Speaker 3: This South Dakota State infusion, which we should might as 787 00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:21,760 Speaker 3: well call them the South Dakota State East Wildcats offensive 788 00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:25,080 Speaker 3: line receivers Griffin Wilde, I mean they lined up he 789 00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:27,560 Speaker 3: lines up in the slot, he was ending the white out. 790 00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:29,879 Speaker 3: He was a multi purpose tool, and he had three 791 00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:31,759 Speaker 3: point two yards per out run. So there is the 792 00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:34,880 Speaker 3: ability here for Northwestern to have a little bit of flash. 793 00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:37,600 Speaker 3: The top four running backs return. I mean, there's nothing 794 00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:41,359 Speaker 3: special about Campporter Joseph Hemman's numbers, but there's stability there. 795 00:38:41,880 --> 00:38:44,719 Speaker 3: You return your middle linebacker eighty five tackles, led the team, 796 00:38:44,760 --> 00:38:48,040 Speaker 3: two sacks and a PBu. The next level potential in 797 00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:50,480 Speaker 3: Antosaka from what we're hearing at edge creating twenty seven 798 00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:54,120 Speaker 3: pressures last year, does the South Dakota State system from 799 00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:58,200 Speaker 3: an offensive perspective finally translate to success, because defensively, David 800 00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:00,600 Speaker 3: Brown had that going Day one. I'm having a harder 801 00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:02,760 Speaker 3: time getting to it. I'm not saying that Northwestern isn'tlive 802 00:39:02,760 --> 00:39:04,960 Speaker 3: against UCLA. I definitely would not take Ucla. 803 00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:09,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, there'll be like six six seven versus for do 804 00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:09,440 Speaker 2: with them. 805 00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:12,320 Speaker 3: If I was to adjust my power rating on Northwestern 806 00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:14,560 Speaker 3: and bump them and make it even with what the 807 00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:17,160 Speaker 3: market is right now, I'd be over four. And I 808 00:39:17,239 --> 00:39:18,840 Speaker 3: don't have them much far off from their pr that 809 00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,759 Speaker 3: they ended with last year. So that's why the number 810 00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:22,759 Speaker 3: of the market confuses me. 811 00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,800 Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to Maryland. 812 00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:32,439 Speaker 1: The Maryland Terrapinson. That's what Maryland does. 813 00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:37,560 Speaker 2: Talk about quarterback uncertainty. Apparently it's a three way competition. 814 00:39:37,640 --> 00:39:41,520 Speaker 2: You have two Martins, a UCLA transfer, the other Martin 815 00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:44,000 Speaker 2: he apparently won the spring. He was considered to be 816 00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:46,160 Speaker 2: like the third but he was like the MVP of Spring. 817 00:39:46,480 --> 00:39:49,680 Speaker 2: And then you have Washington, who's I think going to 818 00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:51,560 Speaker 2: be the starter, but he's dealing with like injuries now 819 00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:53,959 Speaker 2: the stud freshman. He was number five in the twenty 820 00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:57,600 Speaker 2: twenty five class, but he's apparently dealing with some injuries. 821 00:39:57,640 --> 00:39:59,040 Speaker 2: Is he going to be ready by week one? I 822 00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:01,359 Speaker 2: don't know. He said he's not gonna need a starter 823 00:40:02,200 --> 00:40:08,880 Speaker 2: until the Sunday before their first game against FAU. I 824 00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:13,120 Speaker 2: don't Then there's there's this is a team outside the 825 00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:15,880 Speaker 2: top on her in returning production. They only have a 826 00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:18,920 Speaker 2: handful of returning starters. He lost Hemby at running back. 827 00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:22,040 Speaker 2: They lost two wide receivers of the NFL. But it's Maryland. 828 00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:23,640 Speaker 2: You're always going to have good pass catchers. Like they 829 00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:26,800 Speaker 2: brought in Feruke and Webb Smith's back. They brought in 830 00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:30,399 Speaker 2: a tight end I like and fleming. Their offensive line 831 00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:32,040 Speaker 2: is just going to be a disaster. Again. Like Maryland 832 00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:33,600 Speaker 2: is good pass catchers, they don't. They can't get an 833 00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:39,040 Speaker 2: offensive line. Like they're all bad. Like I know that 834 00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:42,480 Speaker 2: there's guys back and some guys back from injury, but 835 00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:46,320 Speaker 2: you might have a tackle from previously at Shorter and 836 00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:48,759 Speaker 2: then they added a tackle from Central Connecticut State, Like 837 00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:50,279 Speaker 2: your tackles in the Big Ten are gonna be from 838 00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:53,480 Speaker 2: Central Connicid State and Shorter. Yeah, I mean, that's just 839 00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:55,120 Speaker 2: not gonna get done in their offensive line. That year 840 00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:59,839 Speaker 2: was so bad. I don't see it getting much better. Defensively, 841 00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:04,200 Speaker 2: you lost five to the NFL. You lost a linebacker, 842 00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:10,319 Speaker 2: you lost two defensive linemen, and you lost a pair 843 00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:14,839 Speaker 2: of safeties. They bring in a couple of transfer cornerbacks 844 00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:17,399 Speaker 2: that you're gonna need to step up. Joiner from Arc State, 845 00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:18,719 Speaker 2: who I think is good, but this is a step 846 00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:23,560 Speaker 2: up in class, Glasgar from Wake Forest met So you're 847 00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:26,719 Speaker 2: not their nine best players on defense last year, in 848 00:41:26,800 --> 00:41:32,520 Speaker 2: my opinion, one is back. That's it. Husky their safety. 849 00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:37,120 Speaker 2: You lost five to the NFL. Two went to the portal. 850 00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:39,520 Speaker 2: One graduate I mean late in the portal that they 851 00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:45,759 Speaker 2: lost Johnson, their defensive linemen to Texas, and they lost 852 00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:49,960 Speaker 2: a couple other guys late Wyatt to Indiana. They were 853 00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:53,279 Speaker 2: counting on at defensive end, Brown at defensive end, excuse me, 854 00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:58,520 Speaker 2: Wheatland at that heat transferred, So they got gutted. They're 855 00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:00,960 Speaker 2: still recruiting in a decent high level, but. 856 00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:05,640 Speaker 3: Waxley's always had that. Yeah, it's they can't keep them 857 00:42:05,680 --> 00:42:06,520 Speaker 3: after two years though. 858 00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:11,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, they're all bolting. There's a ton of questions on 859 00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:14,680 Speaker 2: this team, a lot of excitement with the quarterback, but 860 00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:18,040 Speaker 2: with Malik Washington the top number five in the twenty 861 00:42:18,080 --> 00:42:23,879 Speaker 2: twenty five class. Schedule wise, you should start three and Oho, 862 00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,200 Speaker 2: fau n IU and towsend at home, and that's good 863 00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:32,200 Speaker 2: for a brand new team and a true freshman quarterback potentially. 864 00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:36,279 Speaker 2: And then you're at was Wisconsin, you host Washington, your 865 00:42:36,320 --> 00:42:40,759 Speaker 2: host Nebraska, you're at UCLA. There's some winnable games on 866 00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:42,960 Speaker 2: this roster. They avoid Oregon, they have void Ohio State, 867 00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:46,319 Speaker 2: they have void Penn State, and they host Michigan. They 868 00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:47,920 Speaker 2: do a five big ten road games with one of 869 00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:52,600 Speaker 2: them's at Ford Field. New coordinators here. There was a 870 00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:55,440 Speaker 2: lot of nil drama last year. This team quit and 871 00:42:55,840 --> 00:43:01,040 Speaker 2: did not like each other. Right, this is this team 872 00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:03,040 Speaker 2: is very Some of these teams that just massive turnover 873 00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,920 Speaker 2: and a true freshman quarterback, they're hard for me to 874 00:43:06,000 --> 00:43:11,080 Speaker 2: power rate. But I project win total over four and 875 00:43:11,120 --> 00:43:13,960 Speaker 2: a half plus money plus one oh five you want 876 00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:15,359 Speaker 2: to go over is the best you can find out there. 877 00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:18,719 Speaker 2: So you're looking at implied win total one don't like 878 00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:21,080 Speaker 2: four point two, five, four point three. I project like 879 00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:25,000 Speaker 2: four point one, So nothing for me on Maryland. How 880 00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:25,320 Speaker 2: about you? 881 00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:27,920 Speaker 3: I'm at three point nine, so I go under. I mean, 882 00:43:28,800 --> 00:43:30,719 Speaker 3: if you're having a culture issue and people don't like 883 00:43:30,760 --> 00:43:33,160 Speaker 3: each other, you're bringing an NFL quarterback coach Pep Hamilton 884 00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:35,840 Speaker 3: so that he can develop Justin Martin or freshman League Washington, 885 00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:37,960 Speaker 3: So maybe that helps culture a little bit. 886 00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:40,760 Speaker 2: The numbers, same Maryland team, you got an exciting quarterback, 887 00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:43,440 Speaker 2: very good webte They put wide receivers in the NFL 888 00:43:43,560 --> 00:43:45,319 Speaker 2: like it's every year. It seems like they have really 889 00:43:45,400 --> 00:43:48,960 Speaker 2: talented wide receivers, really talented wide receivers, and then your 890 00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:52,480 Speaker 2: offensive line is terrible yep, and the defense has talent, 891 00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:54,960 Speaker 2: but like just will not put it all together. 892 00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:59,479 Speaker 3: And if it's the same team, they finish one hundred 893 00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:01,279 Speaker 3: and twenty seven than have a allowed on offense, and 894 00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:03,200 Speaker 3: they finished one hundred and twenty ninth in quality drives. 895 00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:05,680 Speaker 3: You flip over to the defensive side. Do you know 896 00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:08,040 Speaker 3: how hard it is to rank outside the top? One 897 00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:11,439 Speaker 3: thirty and fbs they ranked outside the top. They ragged 898 00:44:11,480 --> 00:44:15,799 Speaker 3: dead last and coverage defending explosives, one hundred and thirty 899 00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:17,520 Speaker 3: first in quality drives and one hundred and thirty fourth 900 00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:20,719 Speaker 3: and finishing drives. What are we doing here? Just find 901 00:44:20,760 --> 00:44:22,120 Speaker 3: me a win after non conference stuck? 902 00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:25,759 Speaker 2: But they could catch someone at home, just in like 903 00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:29,560 Speaker 2: a tricky travel spot that like Washington at home that's 904 00:44:29,600 --> 00:44:32,600 Speaker 2: after Maryland's after a bye, the worst, someone that just 905 00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:35,000 Speaker 2: no shows in a bad spot. And you never know 906 00:44:35,080 --> 00:44:37,800 Speaker 2: with injuries and other teams. But I think this is 907 00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:40,360 Speaker 2: a I think that this is set right. I mean 908 00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:43,080 Speaker 2: I project right around four. I think this is a 909 00:44:43,120 --> 00:44:43,799 Speaker 2: four win team. 910 00:44:44,280 --> 00:44:45,640 Speaker 3: But you and I are not going to know how 911 00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:47,200 Speaker 3: the locker room if they like each other and want 912 00:44:47,200 --> 00:44:49,080 Speaker 3: to play for each other November either, We're not No 913 00:44:49,120 --> 00:44:50,160 Speaker 3: one can answer that question. 914 00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:53,080 Speaker 2: All right, Let's finish up with Purdue. 915 00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:55,000 Speaker 1: The Purdue boiler Makers. 916 00:44:55,440 --> 00:45:00,239 Speaker 2: Purdue, Purdue It's like losing the Northwestern the Rutgers not 917 00:45:00,320 --> 00:45:02,240 Speaker 2: even a real school. What the hell's of Purdue? 918 00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:03,640 Speaker 3: What the hell's of Rutgers? 919 00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:07,279 Speaker 2: Purdue an absolute disaster last year you want to talk about, Like, 920 00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:10,960 Speaker 2: so this is in this new era. There are certain 921 00:45:11,000 --> 00:45:13,800 Speaker 2: teams that I will move from start to the beginning 922 00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:15,960 Speaker 2: to the end of the year more than I've ever 923 00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:19,680 Speaker 2: done it ever. Can move a team seventeen to twenty 924 00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:22,080 Speaker 2: points from their initial power rating. I mean, look at 925 00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:25,480 Speaker 2: Florida State last year. These teams that are completely brand new, 926 00:45:25,920 --> 00:45:28,640 Speaker 2: they're very difficult. Like if you're a very good player, modeler, 927 00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:33,239 Speaker 2: you'll be That's not my strength. Maybe you're much better 928 00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:35,360 Speaker 2: than this at me. I have no idea what to 929 00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:37,600 Speaker 2: do with this Purdue team. It is brand new. They 930 00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:40,360 Speaker 2: have one returning starter. By the way, tell me this 931 00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:43,719 Speaker 2: team who was so bad last year. Their offense lost 932 00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:46,120 Speaker 2: three to the NFL. How three guys from the offensive 933 00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:48,719 Speaker 2: line are on NFL rosters, five to the Power four. 934 00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:51,399 Speaker 2: Their d lost nine starters that all went to Power 935 00:45:51,440 --> 00:45:54,080 Speaker 2: four teams. I think that speaks to the portal this year. 936 00:45:54,280 --> 00:45:57,040 Speaker 2: Not all these Purdue guys were good guys. They couldn't 937 00:45:57,040 --> 00:45:58,279 Speaker 2: win a game last year, and now all these teams 938 00:45:58,280 --> 00:46:00,720 Speaker 2: are relying on the Purdue transfers. They could start eleven 939 00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:02,359 Speaker 2: transfers on day. There's a world. I don't know if 940 00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:04,080 Speaker 2: they will, but they could start eleven trances in the day, 941 00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:07,120 Speaker 2: maybe seven or eight. On offense. It's all brand new 942 00:46:07,160 --> 00:46:09,399 Speaker 2: except for the Brown is back at quarterback who played 943 00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:09,960 Speaker 2: some last year. 944 00:46:09,960 --> 00:46:10,279 Speaker 3: He wasn't. 945 00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:12,239 Speaker 2: The portal came back, and the Makabi is probably their 946 00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:15,440 Speaker 2: best most reliable player at running back. He's back. The 947 00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:17,120 Speaker 2: rest is all new. I mean, they brought in twelve 948 00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:20,279 Speaker 2: ride receivers. They lost their their stud tight end to 949 00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:23,759 Speaker 2: Ohio State. Their offensive line, like I said, they lost 950 00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:26,280 Speaker 2: three to the NFL, one to Louisville, one to USC. 951 00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:30,600 Speaker 2: I don't know how that happened. You want to know 952 00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:34,320 Speaker 2: how little I know about this team and where I 953 00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:37,120 Speaker 2: think they should be power ated. Their center is a 954 00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:42,560 Speaker 2: Canadian from He went to Manitoba College or something. How 955 00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:46,040 Speaker 2: do I rate him? I gonna go watch some Canadian tape, 956 00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:51,399 Speaker 2: some Manitoba tape. This team is starting all over, brand 957 00:46:51,400 --> 00:46:54,200 Speaker 2: new coach, brand new coordinators, bringing an oc Henson from USC, 958 00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:57,640 Speaker 2: but he didn't call plays there. Air raid background, new 959 00:46:57,719 --> 00:47:02,800 Speaker 2: DC comes from UNLV. And one thing that we know 960 00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:05,160 Speaker 2: with Barry Otum, who takes over as head coach, good 961 00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:09,480 Speaker 2: special teams might have good specialties. He's a takeaway artist. 962 00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:15,440 Speaker 2: This defense is usually specially specialized in getting takeaways. They 963 00:47:15,520 --> 00:47:17,400 Speaker 2: only had five last year a perdue and perdue was 964 00:47:17,480 --> 00:47:19,080 Speaker 2: oh in three and one session games. They lost two 965 00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:21,520 Speaker 2: games in overtime. They were minus fourteen in turnovers. But 966 00:47:21,600 --> 00:47:24,000 Speaker 2: does that even matter for progression if everyone is brand new? 967 00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:26,600 Speaker 2: But ting like seventy five new players on this team, 968 00:47:27,480 --> 00:47:32,520 Speaker 2: I don't know. The schedule also is brutal, top fifteen 969 00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:35,560 Speaker 2: hardest schedules in the country. They should start out two 970 00:47:35,600 --> 00:47:40,720 Speaker 2: and oh, so their win total is over three minus 971 00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:44,759 Speaker 2: one thirty you can find out there. So how do 972 00:47:44,800 --> 00:47:48,000 Speaker 2: they get the four wins? Let's see, they could just 973 00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:50,680 Speaker 2: be way better than anyone anticipates at That's one thing. 974 00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:54,759 Speaker 2: They should be ball State and SIU at home to 975 00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:57,759 Speaker 2: start the year. Yes, you're two and zero, A lot 976 00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:03,200 Speaker 2: of optimism in West Lafe and then it's just USC 977 00:48:04,280 --> 00:48:07,840 Speaker 2: at Notre Dame. I will say there's some good spots, 978 00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:12,640 Speaker 2: so like Illinois, can they catch someone they should have 979 00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:16,840 Speaker 2: been Illinois last year? Or they could have. There's some 980 00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:20,080 Speaker 2: good spots on this schedule, Like so Illinois goes to Purdue, 981 00:48:21,000 --> 00:48:25,359 Speaker 2: who's off of a bye in between USC and Ohio State. 982 00:48:25,920 --> 00:48:26,120 Speaker 3: Yep. 983 00:48:27,000 --> 00:48:33,160 Speaker 2: Also Minnesota, can they catch Minnesota sleeping if their quarterback play? 984 00:48:33,320 --> 00:48:37,439 Speaker 2: Minnesota host Purdue the week after playing at Ohio State 985 00:48:38,320 --> 00:48:43,200 Speaker 2: and before Nebraska. And then how about Rutgers. Can they 986 00:48:43,320 --> 00:48:48,080 Speaker 2: catch Rutgers sleeping? Rutgers goes to Purdue after playing hosting 987 00:48:48,160 --> 00:48:51,919 Speaker 2: Oregon and before going to Illinois, So can they catch 988 00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:55,400 Speaker 2: one of these teams sleeping? But then they're at at Michigan, 989 00:48:55,600 --> 00:48:59,040 Speaker 2: Ohio State, at Washington, Indiana at home in the year, 990 00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:03,279 Speaker 2: it's hard to see them getting to four wins. But 991 00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:04,880 Speaker 2: maybe they can catch one of these teams in a 992 00:49:04,920 --> 00:49:06,880 Speaker 2: good spot. But I also just have no confidence in 993 00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:10,000 Speaker 2: my power rating. I could easily be a touchdown to 994 00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:14,799 Speaker 2: ten points off to start the year. My numbers now, 995 00:49:14,840 --> 00:49:16,239 Speaker 2: which I don't have a ton of confidence in, I 996 00:49:16,280 --> 00:49:17,839 Speaker 2: project three on the dot. 997 00:49:19,000 --> 00:49:22,759 Speaker 3: So nothing for me with Purdue, Yeah, three point two 998 00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:25,800 Speaker 3: for me. I think if there's an angle to play Perdue, 999 00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:31,000 Speaker 3: the explosives against the defense should be limited. And the 1000 00:49:31,040 --> 00:49:33,799 Speaker 3: reason I say that is because Odom will play that three, three, 1001 00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:36,120 Speaker 3: five and sell out to stop EPA. 1002 00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:37,919 Speaker 2: That I mean, bring in some guys in the second 1003 00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:39,360 Speaker 2: that I have some experience like Grimes. 1004 00:49:39,800 --> 00:49:43,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, the entire roster is a collection of OTEM stops. 1005 00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:45,279 Speaker 3: It's like playing the greatest hits of OTEM. Like there's 1006 00:49:45,360 --> 00:49:47,840 Speaker 3: Arkansas players, there's U and LV players, Like there's some 1007 00:49:47,960 --> 00:49:50,640 Speaker 3: experience from a lot of guys that weren't starters. You 1008 00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:52,680 Speaker 3: look at the quarterback room, like if Ryan Brown doesn't 1009 00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:55,600 Speaker 3: win it, you have Malachi Singleton. Malachi Singleton filled in 1010 00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:58,840 Speaker 3: for Taylor Green at Arkansas. Not a great passer, but 1011 00:49:59,040 --> 00:50:01,840 Speaker 3: can tuck the ball and and as was very effective 1012 00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:04,640 Speaker 3: in that aspect. So you know, I don't know what 1013 00:50:04,760 --> 00:50:07,279 Speaker 3: the identity is going to be. That's the ultimate question, 1014 00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:10,000 Speaker 3: and it could change from week to week. But I 1015 00:50:10,160 --> 00:50:13,080 Speaker 3: do think that you want to look under on Purdue 1016 00:50:13,160 --> 00:50:15,239 Speaker 3: totals early because I know Barry Odom's going to do 1017 00:50:15,320 --> 00:50:17,719 Speaker 3: everything that he can to sell out to stop explosive plays. 1018 00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:20,440 Speaker 3: It is one of his main stays when he has 1019 00:50:20,480 --> 00:50:25,160 Speaker 3: showed up at UNLV in Arkansas with disaster defenses. We 1020 00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:29,320 Speaker 3: are going to stop EPA, period, And you know you 1021 00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:32,279 Speaker 3: mentioned special teams that'll get a boost. So I do 1022 00:50:33,600 --> 00:50:36,120 Speaker 3: like unders say, you know, I haven't looked at my 1023 00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:38,239 Speaker 3: total for ball State Perdue. It's at fifteen and a half. 1024 00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:40,440 Speaker 3: I'll probably play it for a self under next week 1025 00:50:40,520 --> 00:50:42,960 Speaker 3: in Southern Illinois, probably play an under. That's the play 1026 00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:44,279 Speaker 3: on them. But I make it three point two and 1027 00:50:44,480 --> 00:50:45,839 Speaker 3: so I can't get into over two and a half 1028 00:50:45,920 --> 00:50:46,600 Speaker 3: minus one eighty. 1029 00:50:46,880 --> 00:50:49,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, if I had, I guess they finished three and nine. 1030 00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:52,040 Speaker 2: All right, Before we get close this up and then 1031 00:50:52,080 --> 00:50:54,280 Speaker 2: get ready to do the SEC in a couple hours, 1032 00:50:54,760 --> 00:50:57,720 Speaker 2: let's summarize it Big ten. Look with all the quarterback 1033 00:50:57,760 --> 00:51:01,040 Speaker 2: on certainty, this is the conference that I've I have 1034 00:51:01,160 --> 00:51:05,279 Speaker 2: the biggest show the biggest discrepancies to market in my 1035 00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:08,000 Speaker 2: wind totals by far as far as volume, like overs 1036 00:51:08,080 --> 00:51:16,799 Speaker 2: that I may play or Penn State, USC Indiana, Washington, Wisconsin, YEP, 1037 00:51:16,880 --> 00:51:20,600 Speaker 2: maybe Northwestern unders. I show guy in Iowa of not 1038 00:51:20,760 --> 00:51:23,800 Speaker 2: playing it. I will be playing Minnesota and UCLA unders. 1039 00:51:24,440 --> 00:51:24,600 Speaker 3: Oh. 1040 00:51:25,840 --> 00:51:28,880 Speaker 2: I think Penn State wins the conference. My prediction is 1041 00:51:28,920 --> 00:51:30,600 Speaker 2: the Big Ten, which is a lot deeper this year. 1042 00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:34,480 Speaker 2: It's gonna be some more upsets. I think that there's 1043 00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:37,200 Speaker 2: only three college fwall playoff teams that come from the 1044 00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:40,759 Speaker 2: Big Ten. That's my prediction. I think it's Penn State. 1045 00:51:41,480 --> 00:51:43,839 Speaker 2: I think Ohio State will get there, and then there's 1046 00:51:43,840 --> 00:51:45,600 Speaker 2: gonna be a surprise team and it's not Oregon. 1047 00:51:46,320 --> 00:51:50,120 Speaker 3: Could be Indiana. I like Indiana overs. I like Washington over. 1048 00:51:50,200 --> 00:51:53,120 Speaker 3: I like Indiana over. I think the two long shots 1049 00:51:53,160 --> 00:51:55,600 Speaker 3: that I'm taking, I like Michigan and USC to make 1050 00:51:55,640 --> 00:51:59,000 Speaker 3: the Big Ten Championship game. Michigan's plus three eighty in 1051 00:51:59,040 --> 00:52:01,640 Speaker 3: the market, plus seven to fifty if you want to 1052 00:52:01,640 --> 00:52:03,520 Speaker 3: go budge on a twenty five to one on USC. 1053 00:52:04,080 --> 00:52:05,920 Speaker 3: Those two teams play each other, and I think that 1054 00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:07,680 Speaker 3: ticket if you want to do a half unit on both, 1055 00:52:07,719 --> 00:52:09,680 Speaker 3: I think that ticket serves as your long shot and 1056 00:52:09,760 --> 00:52:11,880 Speaker 3: a conference that I think a long shot with a 1057 00:52:11,920 --> 00:52:15,880 Speaker 3: good schedule can make some numbers. Michigan has the perfect schedule. 1058 00:52:16,120 --> 00:52:19,400 Speaker 3: USC has a rising defense by far. Penn State. I 1059 00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:21,239 Speaker 3: think there's only one way to play them because their 1060 00:52:21,320 --> 00:52:25,320 Speaker 3: numbers are so juiced on win totals and Big Ten futures. 1061 00:52:26,000 --> 00:52:27,920 Speaker 3: I think you have to play them national championship. If 1062 00:52:27,920 --> 00:52:29,200 Speaker 3: you can find an eight to one. There's a couple 1063 00:52:29,200 --> 00:52:30,640 Speaker 3: of them out there, even at seven to one that 1064 00:52:30,760 --> 00:52:32,239 Speaker 3: is a ticket that you make and you don't even 1065 00:52:32,280 --> 00:52:34,120 Speaker 3: look at it till the semi finals because if they 1066 00:52:34,200 --> 00:52:37,200 Speaker 3: finish anywhere below the semi finals are the college football 1067 00:52:37,200 --> 00:52:40,080 Speaker 3: playoff complete disaster of a year. We're going to play 1068 00:52:40,120 --> 00:52:42,200 Speaker 3: Orgon on the under. I do not like the defensive interior. 1069 00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:44,239 Speaker 3: I think they're going to be run on all season long. 1070 00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:46,919 Speaker 3: I do like the over on Ruckers five and a half. 1071 00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:49,839 Speaker 3: That is a very well coached team. Caliak mannus year 1072 00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:54,759 Speaker 3: two in Soroka's offense, easy non conference schedule, and don't 1073 00:52:54,760 --> 00:52:57,560 Speaker 3: forget Rutgers won four games outright as an underdog last year. 1074 00:52:58,400 --> 00:53:00,480 Speaker 3: I like it for that matter. So you know, a 1075 00:53:00,560 --> 00:53:03,320 Speaker 3: couple overs and unders. But I like USC and Michigan really. 1076 00:53:03,880 --> 00:53:05,799 Speaker 3: Whoever wins that game between them, I think is going 1077 00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:07,280 Speaker 3: to make a rumbling at the top of the standing 1078 00:53:07,360 --> 00:53:07,920 Speaker 3: for the Big ten. 1079 00:53:08,239 --> 00:53:10,160 Speaker 2: I think quick reminders before we get out of here. 1080 00:53:10,440 --> 00:53:13,600 Speaker 2: Watch party August twenty, third week zero lebin An doors 1081 00:53:13,640 --> 00:53:16,560 Speaker 2: open Joe's in Chicago. I hope to see as many 1082 00:53:16,640 --> 00:53:19,799 Speaker 2: of you there as possible. Five star reviews really help 1083 00:53:19,920 --> 00:53:22,319 Speaker 2: us out. Subscribe on sucrat subscribe tel friend Ton, I mean, 1084 00:53:22,360 --> 00:53:23,840 Speaker 2: thanks com for joining me. Most poly Thanks to all 1085 00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:26,560 Speaker 2: of you for tuning in. Cost Footble season will before 1086 00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:27,920 Speaker 2: we know it. It's time for us to go. Heard 1087 00:53:27,960 --> 00:53:30,680 Speaker 2: I for the SEC preview, which will be out shortly. 1088 00:53:31,160 --> 00:53:34,879 Speaker 2: We'll see y'all there, Big twelve ACC coming out. We'll 1089 00:53:34,880 --> 00:53:36,879 Speaker 2: be doing that later this weekend. Thanks for tuning again, 1090 00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:37,759 Speaker 2: catchy all later. Cheers. 1091 00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:38,480 Speaker 3: Peace Out. 1092 00:53:49,080 --> 00:53:53,560 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 1093 00:53:53,640 --> 00:53:56,400 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 1094 00:53:56,440 --> 00:53:59,520 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler