1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:10,559 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,600 --> 00:00:14,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 3 00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,880 Speaker 1: Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 4 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 5 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:26,239 Speaker 2: One of the top read stories on the Bloomberg Criminal 7 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 2: is about Morgan stanleing and cutting about three percent of 8 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:33,240 Speaker 2: its workforce pretty much across all of its business lines. 9 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:34,800 Speaker 2: And one question I have, I think a lot of 10 00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:38,080 Speaker 2: folks have, is this something specific to Morgan Stanley. There's 11 00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 2: a signal weakness in the biz, but words it just 12 00:00:40,479 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 2: kind of the annual culling of people. So let's just 13 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:45,480 Speaker 2: see what's happening here. Herman Chan, senior analyst for US 14 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 2: Banks Joints US here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. 15 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:49,519 Speaker 2: So what do you make of the news heerman come 16 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:51,640 Speaker 2: out of Morgan Stanley bet laying off about three percent 17 00:00:51,640 --> 00:00:52,200 Speaker 2: of its workforce. 18 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:56,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right, three percent of its workforce, about twenty 19 00:00:56,040 --> 00:01:00,200 Speaker 3: five hundred workers. I would say that it is of 20 00:01:00,200 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 3: an annual culling. They did a similar workforce reduction last year. 21 00:01:04,720 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 3: I would also point to the fact that head count 22 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 3: across the big banks was pretty stable for banks like 23 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:15,920 Speaker 3: JP Morgan, Bank of America City, whereas Morgan standly grew 24 00:01:15,920 --> 00:01:19,680 Speaker 3: their headcount three percent last year, So now they're sort 25 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:21,920 Speaker 3: of back in the pack with this workforce reduction. 26 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:24,959 Speaker 4: So we noticed that the cuts hit investment banking, trading 27 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 4: and the wealth management. You mentioned that it's annual culling, 28 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,479 Speaker 4: but should we read into whether the signals a broader 29 00:01:30,520 --> 00:01:31,760 Speaker 4: shift for the bank. 30 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting because last year when they did a 31 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:38,319 Speaker 3: two percent reduction, they didn't really touch their financial advisor force, 32 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 3: whereas this year it seems like it's more broad in scope. 33 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:47,520 Speaker 3: So I think there's just maybe some some changes in 34 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 3: where they think that their advisors are and maybe just 35 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 3: shifting geographically as well. 36 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 2: You know, what are the investment banks saying about AI 37 00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:00,120 Speaker 2: and as a way to make the more efficient and 38 00:02:00,160 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 2: maybe with less headcoun Because I think about the first 39 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 2: three years of my investment banking career, pretty much everything 40 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 2: I did, running earnings models, LBO models, pitch books, pretty 41 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:12,440 Speaker 2: much all of my life could have been done by 42 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 2: any right price myself out of a job back then. 43 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 5: But what are they saying these days. 44 00:02:18,360 --> 00:02:21,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, so AI is a big story. We just heard 45 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 3: JPM Morgan at the investor Day talk about the benefits 46 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:31,200 Speaker 3: of AI in terms of personalization, pinpointing which customers would 47 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:34,919 Speaker 3: be open to different products, and using AI to better 48 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:38,239 Speaker 3: use their marketing dollars for that. On the other hand, 49 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 3: they've also talked about improving customer satisfaction with the call 50 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 3: centers and the like, where there's less people in the 51 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 3: call centers, which is expense saving for banks like jping 52 00:02:50,760 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 3: Morgan and b of A, but they're also improving customer satisfaction. 53 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 3: You can see that improving over time, so there's a 54 00:02:58,040 --> 00:02:59,360 Speaker 3: double benefit on that front. 55 00:03:00,120 --> 00:03:03,079 Speaker 4: AI accelerating structural change when it comes to these banks, 56 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 4: because we've heard a lot of banks and fintech firms 57 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 4: like Block actually citing AI as a reason why they're calling. 58 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 3: Yes, I wouldn't say we're going to see forty percent 59 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 3: job cuts from from JP Morgan and BAA at this point, 60 00:03:18,440 --> 00:03:22,080 Speaker 3: but I would say that AI is definitely reducing the 61 00:03:22,160 --> 00:03:26,080 Speaker 3: need for headcounts, and we've seen that given the fact 62 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 3: that JP Morgan's headcount numbers are flat year over year, 63 00:03:29,919 --> 00:03:34,239 Speaker 3: and really they've been reducing their their workforce within the 64 00:03:34,680 --> 00:03:36,760 Speaker 3: consumer bank, which which speaks to what I was just 65 00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 3: saying before with the call center. 66 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, we were just talking earlier that twenty 67 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 2: six could wind up being a monster year from IPOs. 68 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:49,080 Speaker 2: We're just talking about anthropic open AI SpaceX. What are 69 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 2: the banks saying about the prospects for IPOs in twenty 70 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:53,080 Speaker 2: twenty six. 71 00:03:53,200 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, that that is something that that heading into the year, 72 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:59,800 Speaker 3: a lot of the investment banks were really we're really 73 00:03:59,840 --> 00:04:02,560 Speaker 3: in enthusiastic about to pick up in capital markets issue 74 00:04:02,560 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 3: once and activity specifically with IPOs and equity capital markets, 75 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:08,960 Speaker 3: and also in M and A you talked about some 76 00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 3: of the three headline IPOs that could potentially hit this year. 77 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 3: That being said, there's been some volatility in turbulence in 78 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:19,279 Speaker 3: the market today, so maybe that pushes things back to 79 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 3: a little bit, but overall there is some general enthusiasm 80 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:26,359 Speaker 3: and JP Morgan mentioned capital markets would be up fourteen 81 00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 3: about mid teens for the first quarter, so there's hopes 82 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 3: that that could continue going forward. 83 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:35,240 Speaker 4: Do you think that these layoffs will affect Morgan Stanley 84 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:37,760 Speaker 4: and competing with top talent, because to PulsePoint, it's going 85 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 4: to be such a busy year or is this par 86 00:04:40,440 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 4: for the core in most banks. 87 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 6: Yeah. 88 00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:44,880 Speaker 3: I would say Morgan Stanley is one of the top 89 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:51,760 Speaker 3: investment banks, particularly in technology TMT, and they're going to 90 00:04:51,760 --> 00:04:54,360 Speaker 3: get their fair share of deals and win a lot 91 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 3: of mandates just given the fact that they have really 92 00:04:57,080 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 3: strong banking presence within that industry. We'd expect to do 93 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:02,720 Speaker 3: really well in twenty twenty six. 94 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 2: You know, when President Trump took was elected took over 95 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 2: an early last year, one of the industries that was 96 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:12,920 Speaker 2: really thought to benefit would be the financial services industry. 97 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:16,440 Speaker 2: Much less regulation, that's rolling back some of the regulations 98 00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 2: that came out of the Great Financial Crisis. 99 00:05:18,000 --> 00:05:19,200 Speaker 5: Have we seen that we have? 100 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 3: So, we've seen that directly with m and A, With 101 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:26,680 Speaker 3: Bank m and A. There's been more deal making but 102 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 3: also less red tape in terms of getting deals approved 103 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 3: by the regulators. We've seen a few deals that just 104 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 3: get approved with less than one hundred days from announcement 105 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 3: to close, whereas during the Biden administration it took three 106 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 3: hundred and four hundred days for that to happen. So 107 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 3: much more streamlined. And you're also seeing, on the other hand, 108 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:49,960 Speaker 3: for the big banks, less onerous capital rules, So that 109 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 3: means they can plow more of their capital into the 110 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 3: trading businesses and lending, So that's going to be an 111 00:05:57,080 --> 00:05:59,360 Speaker 3: ongoing benefit for the big banks. 112 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:03,160 Speaker 5: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. 113 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:10,720 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 114 00:06:10,839 --> 00:06:13,919 Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 115 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:17,239 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever 116 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:20,359 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 117 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:24,799 Speaker 2: Broadcom the chip maker, Broadcom reported some pretty good numbers, 118 00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 2: better than expected numbers, some good revenue guidance. CEO's talking 119 00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 2: about one hundred billion dollars in revenue next year. They 120 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 2: had about sixty eight billion dollars last year, so that's 121 00:06:34,560 --> 00:06:37,039 Speaker 2: a mega jump. Let's check in with Ku John Sobani. 122 00:06:37,240 --> 00:06:40,000 Speaker 2: He's a senior ANAOS covering the semiconductors for Bloomberg Intelligence. 123 00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:42,480 Speaker 2: He spased out there in San Francisco. Kunjohn, seems like 124 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 2: a good number to me. What did what did you 125 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:46,480 Speaker 2: guys and what did the street take away? 126 00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:48,080 Speaker 6: Yeah? 127 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 7: It was. 128 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:51,160 Speaker 6: It was one of the most strongest showings when it 129 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 6: comes to AI chip names in our sector. You know, 130 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:57,480 Speaker 6: just for context, most of the AI chip names, despite 131 00:06:57,520 --> 00:07:00,919 Speaker 6: them giving strong numbers next day have seen their stock 132 00:07:01,000 --> 00:07:03,760 Speaker 6: down sort of met single digit. Here you're seeing the 133 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 6: opposite very well justified. Few things that really stood out 134 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 6: to investors. That one was the one hundred billion plus 135 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:15,559 Speaker 6: line of sight of AI chip revenues in twenty twenty seven, 136 00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 6: and to add the point that they see growth in 137 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 6: twenty twenty eight. Again, this is the first company calling 138 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 6: out growth two years out so far in our sector, 139 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 6: so that should ease the concerns around hyper scale spending. 140 00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 6: There were a lot of other good points here. The 141 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 6: networking side of their business, which we believe continues to 142 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 6: be underappreciated, has been running much faster than people expect. 143 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:43,240 Speaker 6: The gross margins, which you would think should be seeing 144 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 6: headwinds because of these ramp of their AI chips, are 145 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 6: actually going to stay stable, which in itself is a 146 00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 6: very positive sign, which implies that a they have significantly 147 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 6: strong pricing power, they're not eating the rising input cost, 148 00:07:58,520 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 6: and that they have supply chain really optimized to get 149 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 6: the best feels. 150 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:07,280 Speaker 4: They did say that AI sales chips could top one 151 00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 4: hundred billion by twenty twenty seven. Quo Jan, how credible 152 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:13,040 Speaker 4: is that target? I mean aar revenue more than doubled 153 00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 4: last quarter. But is this gross sustainable? 154 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 6: I mean, look, what Hawkden says in our sector is 155 00:08:20,520 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 6: not taken lightly. It's sort of a line in the stone. 156 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 6: So I wouldn't think they would be throwing out numbers 157 00:08:26,480 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 6: will nearly if they didn't have to. Also, there was 158 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:30,920 Speaker 6: there is no need for them to throw out that 159 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:35,200 Speaker 6: long outward number. So you know, most of the street 160 00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 6: and the south side does give a lot of credence 161 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 6: to that number now that it's coming out from hawk 162 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 6: AND's mouth. And look when we look at the gigaboard 163 00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:48,160 Speaker 6: and the unit volume projections which are there on the 164 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 6: street even before that hundred billion number came out, it 165 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 6: doesn't seem drastically aggressive or ambitious. I mean, we have 166 00:08:56,600 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 6: heard Google's higher capex, the entropic dealer and the open 167 00:09:00,480 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 6: Ai deal layout, the timing and toropic. Again to remind everyone, 168 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,280 Speaker 6: is will be on the all the TPUs that Broadcom 169 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 6: creates through Google. So when you add up most of 170 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:14,000 Speaker 6: the unit volume which is expected, this does seem reasonable 171 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:16,319 Speaker 6: that they can easily achieve that hundred billion target. 172 00:09:17,000 --> 00:09:20,240 Speaker 2: Kun John, where does Broadcom fit into the world of 173 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:23,400 Speaker 2: the semiconductor chip makers. I'm thinking, you know, versus the 174 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 2: NVIDIAs of the world, the a m ds of the world, 175 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 2: what does Broadcom kind of fit in there? 176 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 6: Yeah, so, you know, the AMDs and and media sell 177 00:09:31,559 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 6: what we call GPUs. Think of them as AI accelerator 178 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 6: chips use for everything AI. But that is something that 179 00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:42,440 Speaker 6: off the shelf chips. Anyone can go by the GPU 180 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 6: and use it the way, use it the way it's 181 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 6: supposed to use. Broadcom sells a similar chip that is 182 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,400 Speaker 6: used for the same AI training, AI influence AGENTIC AI 183 00:09:52,520 --> 00:09:55,199 Speaker 6: use cases, but are a six. What it just means 184 00:09:55,280 --> 00:10:00,079 Speaker 6: is big companies like Google, Meta Amazons and Microsoft go 185 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 6: and sort of design their own aigpus if I may 186 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:07,960 Speaker 6: working with a company like Broadcom, because they want to modify, 187 00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:10,200 Speaker 6: they want to customize, they want to optimize it to 188 00:10:10,280 --> 00:10:14,119 Speaker 6: their own needs. So essentially you have the NVIDIAs, the AMDs, 189 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:17,800 Speaker 6: the Broadcom, and the Marvels all selling AI excelator chips. 190 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:20,200 Speaker 6: Is just the end use cases the same as just 191 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:22,440 Speaker 6: the mode of execution is slightly bit different. 192 00:10:23,040 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 4: Broadcom also announced a ten billion dollars buyback. What does 193 00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:27,880 Speaker 4: that signal to investors right now? 194 00:10:27,880 --> 00:10:31,760 Speaker 6: In your opinion, It's definitely a positive signal. I mean, 195 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 6: any buyback is a positive signal, but it is not 196 00:10:34,400 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 6: that huge enough to really raise eyebrows. Broadcom historically has 197 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:43,080 Speaker 6: been a great dividend pair. They have sustained records of 198 00:10:43,120 --> 00:10:46,160 Speaker 6: growing their dividends, so that is what their sort of 199 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 6: long term capital return shareholders really care about, which they 200 00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 6: continue to still do. This is just a cherry on 201 00:10:52,920 --> 00:10:53,240 Speaker 6: the top. 202 00:10:54,679 --> 00:10:58,080 Speaker 2: So in Vidia, they have an investor Day coming up, 203 00:10:58,120 --> 00:11:00,200 Speaker 2: I believe on Saint Patrick's Day. 204 00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 5: What do you expect to see there that that could 205 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 5: be a big data point. 206 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:08,080 Speaker 6: Yeah, that usually is a huge data point for them. 207 00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 6: It is the three day conference. Look, we expect a 208 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:15,800 Speaker 6: couple of things here. We expect the new sort of 209 00:11:15,960 --> 00:11:18,000 Speaker 6: a lot more details when it comes to the VERA 210 00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:21,079 Speaker 6: rubin which is supposed to come in second half of 211 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:23,480 Speaker 6: twenty six, and more than that, we expect a lot 212 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:26,200 Speaker 6: more details on that twenty twenty seven road map. All 213 00:11:26,240 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 6: eyeser from investor perspective now that what we have heard 214 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 6: from Nvidia Broadcome in every hyperscale is really to figure 215 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:34,360 Speaker 6: out the twenty seven numbers. So the focus really will 216 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:36,800 Speaker 6: be the chips that are coming out in twenty twenty seven. 217 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 6: The new innovation that they will be doing. What will 218 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 6: be the memory, whether it will have silicon photonics CPO. 219 00:11:43,440 --> 00:11:45,640 Speaker 6: I know I'm rambling some technical terms, but this is 220 00:11:45,679 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 6: what will really help investors to shape twenty twenty seven. 221 00:11:50,080 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 6: Will twenty twenty seven be an up year for chip makers? 222 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:56,880 Speaker 6: And does that mean the hyperscales will still keep spending 223 00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 6: more in twenty seven than they are spending in twenty 224 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 6: twenty six, which would be impressive feed So that is 225 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 6: what really the focus will be. From NY Media's. 226 00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:07,760 Speaker 2: GDC couljoh thirty seconds left here. How often do I 227 00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:10,440 Speaker 2: have to replace a chip? Is that something that I 228 00:12:10,480 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 2: have to do every year? Every time they update? 229 00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:13,080 Speaker 5: How's that work? 230 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:16,280 Speaker 6: Yeah? These are fairly new chips. So when you think 231 00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:18,600 Speaker 6: of we have not seen a full life cycle of 232 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:21,600 Speaker 6: these new GPUs in Essex, right, we really started seeing 233 00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 6: them deploying in volume in twenty twenty three. Now, based 234 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:27,720 Speaker 6: on the deprecious schedules right now that are put in place, 235 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 6: we're talking about five to six years before you really 236 00:12:30,679 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 6: have to crank out a chip and put a new 237 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:36,840 Speaker 6: one in its place, So we are not there yet. However, 238 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 6: there's another business case where you have a limited power, 239 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:42,640 Speaker 6: you have limited data center footprint, so if a new 240 00:12:42,720 --> 00:12:45,319 Speaker 6: or more efficient chips comes in, there might be a 241 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:48,000 Speaker 6: business case to justify ripping out an old chip even 242 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:50,320 Speaker 6: though it's working correctly, so that you are running on 243 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:51,600 Speaker 6: the latest and greatest chip. 244 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,760 Speaker 5: Stay with us more from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after. 245 00:12:55,520 --> 00:13:03,800 Speaker 1: This to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays 246 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 1: at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with 247 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:10,079 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get 248 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:12,880 Speaker 1: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 249 00:13:13,600 --> 00:13:16,360 Speaker 2: One of the themes, or one of the storylines around 250 00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 2: AI has been the use in the government, particularly the 251 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 2: Department of Defense. 252 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 5: A lot of these AI. 253 00:13:23,040 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 2: Folks are having discussions with the Department of Defense about 254 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:27,080 Speaker 2: how the technology will be used. One of those as 255 00:13:27,120 --> 00:13:31,360 Speaker 2: anthropic and anthropic the news today at of Bloomberg News 256 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:34,360 Speaker 2: has resumed discussions with the Pentagon about the use of 257 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:38,200 Speaker 2: AI models in the US military. It's checking with Man 258 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 2: Deep seeing here he runs a tech research for Bloomberg Intelligence. 259 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 2: Joins us live here in our Bloomberg arrective broker studio. 260 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:47,800 Speaker 2: So anthropic back into discussions with the government. 261 00:13:48,040 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 5: How is this going to play out. 262 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:52,120 Speaker 2: Do you think with these AI agents and the level 263 00:13:52,160 --> 00:13:54,320 Speaker 2: of control they may or may not have about how 264 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:57,280 Speaker 2: their technology is used by their customers in this case 265 00:13:57,280 --> 00:13:58,360 Speaker 2: of the US government. 266 00:13:58,360 --> 00:14:00,960 Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean I was very surprising is that they 267 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:04,760 Speaker 7: didn't come to an agreement before, and you know, they 268 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 7: were designated as a supply chain risk, which is a 269 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 7: big deal for any entity, any company preating here in 270 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:15,680 Speaker 7: the US. So from that perspective, it's good that you know, 271 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 7: they are back to negotiating with the government and trying 272 00:14:20,560 --> 00:14:23,480 Speaker 7: to figure out a solution so that they don't end 273 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 7: up losing any business. I mean, Anthropic just doubled their 274 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:30,080 Speaker 7: revenue in the past three months, so they ended the 275 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:33,560 Speaker 7: year at ten billion. Now they are at twenty billion 276 00:14:33,600 --> 00:14:36,600 Speaker 7: dollar rund rate within three months. So this is one 277 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:41,760 Speaker 7: of the fastest growing US companies ever and they've been 278 00:14:41,840 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 7: designated as a supply chain risk, so clearly, you know, 279 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 7: they have a lot to lose in terms of momentum 280 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:50,520 Speaker 7: if this carries on for a long time. And from 281 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:54,880 Speaker 7: that perspective, I do think, you know, the management, especially 282 00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:59,320 Speaker 7: the CEO, has been on various podcasts talking about, you know, 283 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:04,640 Speaker 7: the whole guardrails and the points of disagreements. I do 284 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 7: think that they'll find a solution and that should somewhat 285 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 7: insulate them from losing any business. 286 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:15,280 Speaker 4: So Anthropic reportedly wants limit on surveillance and autonomous weapons. 287 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:18,480 Speaker 4: Do those guardrails become the industry standard or if they 288 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 4: keep pushing for that, will they be at a competitive 289 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 4: disadvantage because to your point, they have a lot to lose, 290 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 4: and not only them, possibly most of the companies who 291 00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:28,680 Speaker 4: are wanting to deal with the US government. 292 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:31,800 Speaker 7: Well opening I stepped in right away as soon as 293 00:15:31,960 --> 00:15:34,480 Speaker 7: they had a fallout, So I don't know if you know, 294 00:15:34,640 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 7: other companies believe in the same philosophy here, and Anthropic 295 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:43,760 Speaker 7: has you know, being a big promo proponent of guardrails 296 00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 7: and you know, safety more so than the other frontier 297 00:15:47,360 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 7: model players. So from that perspective that has helped them, 298 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 7: you know with enterprise adoption. But in this case it's 299 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 7: the US government and you know, you go back in 300 00:15:56,840 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 7: the history of software companies. I mean Apple has had 301 00:16:00,560 --> 00:16:03,280 Speaker 7: some disagreements with the government where they were asked to 302 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 7: open the platform. Same thing with Microsoft when it comes 303 00:16:07,040 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 7: to a national security and they've found a way to 304 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:14,280 Speaker 7: you know, just make sure that the government has a 305 00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:16,840 Speaker 7: good workaround. So in this case, that's what they have 306 00:16:16,920 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 7: to compromise or you know, come up with a workaround. 307 00:16:20,920 --> 00:16:23,800 Speaker 7: It doesn't mean you have to open your platform, but 308 00:16:24,040 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 7: just kind of make sure that you know, the government 309 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,200 Speaker 7: doesn't label you as a supply to address. 310 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, Anthropic Open AI. Are these companies going to come public? 311 00:16:34,680 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 2: Do you think at some point? 312 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 7: I mean they are getting ready. In fact, I won't 313 00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 7: be surprised if it's not this year. Like really everything 314 00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:47,360 Speaker 7: points to them going public in the second half, given 315 00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 7: you know how focused they are on that ramp up 316 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:52,960 Speaker 7: and what they are doing in terms of just the 317 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:57,200 Speaker 7: cost structure side, because one of the criticisms is how 318 00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:00,720 Speaker 7: much cash they're burning and the training. It also require 319 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:04,440 Speaker 7: a lot of upfront cash. But in this case, now 320 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:06,480 Speaker 7: that they have doubled their revenue in the past three 321 00:17:06,560 --> 00:17:09,919 Speaker 7: months and they are I can sell that and so 322 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:11,919 Speaker 7: that's where I think it's a perfect set to. 323 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:16,520 Speaker 2: Your twenty six may have open AI and SpaceX. 324 00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:18,879 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's going to be an exciting. 325 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,119 Speaker 7: I mean, yeah, that could be an extraordinary some of 326 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 7: the biggest IPOs. I mean, these are not early stage 327 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 7: companies anymore. You know, so think of how much money 328 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 7: they may end up raising in the public markets. 329 00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,159 Speaker 5: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up there for. 330 00:17:34,240 --> 00:17:40,760 Speaker 1: This, you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us 331 00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 1: live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and 332 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:47,119 Speaker 1: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand 333 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:50,760 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 334 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:53,879 Speaker 2: We got an artings coming out some of the retailers. 335 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:55,880 Speaker 2: As you know, they kind of report towards the end 336 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 2: of the season. Given the holiday, they like to push 337 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:02,240 Speaker 2: the reportings back a month versus most other companies. Uh, Kroger, 338 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:06,200 Speaker 2: we had some numbers out BJ's wholesale warehouse. Jen Bartashee 339 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:09,520 Speaker 2: covers this part of the retail space. Jen, let's start 340 00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:12,840 Speaker 2: with Kroger is the biggest supermarket chain other than Walmart. 341 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 5: How do they do? 342 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:16,280 Speaker 7: You know? 343 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,879 Speaker 8: Kruger had a pretty solid quarter, you know, and I 344 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:22,080 Speaker 8: think investors are very encouraged by the early signs of 345 00:18:22,080 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 8: what their new CEO, Greg Forren, is bringing to bear. 346 00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:28,320 Speaker 8: The last year, Kruger's really focused on streamlining the business. 347 00:18:28,359 --> 00:18:32,119 Speaker 8: They've dispersed, they've they've gotten rid of some assets, they've 348 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:35,159 Speaker 8: streamlined their e commerce operations and now they seem to 349 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:38,200 Speaker 8: be better positioned for growth. And one of the things 350 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:42,119 Speaker 8: he's known for is execution, and so there's some some 351 00:18:42,280 --> 00:18:46,960 Speaker 8: optimism with regards to how Kroger you could perform this year. 352 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:50,399 Speaker 4: We're also seeing shoppers trade down to private label and 353 00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:53,399 Speaker 4: hunt for discounts. Is this trend accelerating across the space 354 00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:54,880 Speaker 4: or is this specific to Kroger's. 355 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 8: No, it's it's accelerating across the space. And when we 356 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:03,040 Speaker 8: look at a US all goods that are sold private 357 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:06,040 Speaker 8: label sales are still growing at a faster rate than 358 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:08,920 Speaker 8: national brands. The pace of that growth is a little 359 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:11,359 Speaker 8: bit slower than it had been, but it's still edging 360 00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 8: out national brands. And so when you have retailers like 361 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:18,600 Speaker 8: Kroger who have a long standing program around private label, 362 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:21,200 Speaker 8: that really bodes well for them with regards to their 363 00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:24,440 Speaker 8: product mix and their ability to offer value as well 364 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 8: as innovation to their customers. 365 00:19:27,040 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 2: So tell to us just broadly, how the trends have 366 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 2: been with some of these private labels visa vi the 367 00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,760 Speaker 2: established brands. Just maybe like in shelf placement, it used 368 00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 2: to be the private labels would be on the you know, 369 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,000 Speaker 2: the bottom rung of the shelf near the floor. Are 370 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:43,719 Speaker 2: they getting better positioning, because I know that's important when 371 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:45,840 Speaker 2: you're walking down the aisle, it is. 372 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:48,639 Speaker 8: It's a great point, Paul. And what you're finding is 373 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,679 Speaker 8: that for some retailers that private label is front and center. 374 00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:54,480 Speaker 8: And part of that is due to the fact that 375 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:59,920 Speaker 8: in old days, the resellers were more reliant on alec 376 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:04,320 Speaker 8: hation funds from the CpG companies that dictated where goods 377 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:07,240 Speaker 8: were placed. But in a new age of advertising and 378 00:20:07,320 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 8: digital assets, the need for that in store placement is 379 00:20:11,720 --> 00:20:14,879 Speaker 8: not as big as it used to be historically, so 380 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:17,399 Speaker 8: they've got more leeway to put the items where people 381 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 8: see them, you know. And at the same time, you know, 382 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:23,439 Speaker 8: from a private label perspective, there's just greater acceptance. If 383 00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:27,080 Speaker 8: you think about you know, chains like Aldi or Legal, 384 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:30,720 Speaker 8: you know, these chains that are almost all private label brands, 385 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,960 Speaker 8: and people have really started to embrace that. And so 386 00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:37,280 Speaker 8: private label in and of itself is no longer, you know, 387 00:20:37,359 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 8: sort of more of a taboo category, and people are 388 00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:43,200 Speaker 8: considered themselves smart when they're buying private label because they're 389 00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:44,040 Speaker 8: saving money. 390 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,560 Speaker 2: I've been seeing like a I live in down the 391 00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 2: Jersey Shore a ton more of these al d and 392 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 2: legal stores. 393 00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:50,639 Speaker 5: I'm like, who are these people? 394 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:51,120 Speaker 4: Really? 395 00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:51,240 Speaker 7: No? 396 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,240 Speaker 2: I know, okay, because I mean they're not the shop 397 00:20:53,320 --> 00:20:55,239 Speaker 2: right of in Bee, So I don't know. 398 00:20:55,760 --> 00:20:58,399 Speaker 4: Let's go to BJ's. They delivered on earning speat this quarter. 399 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:03,440 Speaker 4: Our warehouse clubs canntinuing to take share from traditional supermarkets. 400 00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:04,680 Speaker 4: Is that the trend we're seeing? 401 00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:08,879 Speaker 8: It is definitely a trend. I think what happens is consumers, 402 00:21:09,320 --> 00:21:11,719 Speaker 8: once they lock into a membership, they really look to 403 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:16,480 Speaker 8: maximize that membership. And they've understood that that warehouse clubs 404 00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:21,240 Speaker 8: as a type of store are actually better positioned than 405 00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:25,119 Speaker 8: grocery stores or even the mass merchants to make quick 406 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:28,160 Speaker 8: changes to their inventory. And what that means is that 407 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:31,320 Speaker 8: they can always pivot to things that are the best 408 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 8: value for their customers. So even though they may not 409 00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:36,439 Speaker 8: have the exact same item every time you go in 410 00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:40,240 Speaker 8: the club, you know, they encourage that to be looked 411 00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:43,240 Speaker 8: at as a treasure hunt experience, but they can also 412 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:46,080 Speaker 8: offer really really good value. And so we're seeing the 413 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:51,159 Speaker 8: membership base grow and it is eking you know, sales 414 00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:53,480 Speaker 8: away from some of those more traditional formats. 415 00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 5: So what is the story. 416 00:21:55,320 --> 00:21:58,159 Speaker 2: What is the story for Bej's Wholesale? How do you 417 00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,919 Speaker 2: position it? How does the street position this story. 418 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,240 Speaker 8: So BJS has done a really good job in the 419 00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:08,320 Speaker 8: last two or three years of reienting to growth. They've 420 00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 8: accelerated their historic openings, so they're entering new markets as well. 421 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:16,040 Speaker 8: They're entering the Dallas Fort Worth area later this year, 422 00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:20,520 Speaker 8: for example, And that kind of growth and targeting high 423 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 8: growth markets is really a good plan because historically they've 424 00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,920 Speaker 8: been really constrained to the northeast, and so I think 425 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,440 Speaker 8: people are looking at bjays and they've really been able 426 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:32,640 Speaker 8: to show that those new clubs are executing well. They're 427 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:36,199 Speaker 8: very very productive stores, and they're able to sustain a 428 00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 8: pace of faster openings. So all of those things together 429 00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 8: really point to a long runway for growth and a 430 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 8: lot of weight space to enter for new markets and 431 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:47,000 Speaker 8: to gain share. 432 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:50,879 Speaker 4: So, with inflation easing but consumers still cautious, what are 433 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:52,760 Speaker 4: you on the lookout for when it comes to to 434 00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:54,160 Speaker 4: grocery earnings this year? 435 00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,480 Speaker 8: Yeah, it's a great question. You know, there are a 436 00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 8: couple of things that we're really watching and when it 437 00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:04,680 Speaker 8: you know, when you're talking about food retail, price sensitivity 438 00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,720 Speaker 8: is there, but it's going to shift more this year 439 00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:12,560 Speaker 8: to are these retailers able to sell greater volumes of 440 00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 8: goods and if they're achieving that through price cuts or 441 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:20,399 Speaker 8: through promotions, and then how that then translates back to 442 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 8: like the food manufacturing companies. It's been multiple years since 443 00:23:25,000 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 8: we've seen retailers have positive volume in the majority of 444 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,919 Speaker 8: the store, and so that really is the focus for 445 00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:36,199 Speaker 8: this year, especially because inflation has become less of a 446 00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:38,560 Speaker 8: pressure for them to have to manage. 447 00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:44,159 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 448 00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. 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