1 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:07,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:16,320 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays 3 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,640 Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on Apple car Player, Android Auto 4 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 5 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 2: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:30,000 Speaker 3: Bash Our Alasade has fled to Moscow after Rubbles advanced 7 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:33,760 Speaker 3: on Damascus, marking the end of his thirteen year. 8 00:00:33,720 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 4: Rule in Syria. What does it mean for Syria? 9 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 3: What does it mean for the Middle East? Jamana Bersechi 10 00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:41,279 Speaker 3: joins us. She's the anchor for Bloomberg Television. Jamana, keep 11 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 3: it into context for our listeners, our viewers. 12 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:46,560 Speaker 4: Here, what is happening in Syria. 13 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:51,559 Speaker 5: Yeah, it's truly unbelievable. Scenes you mentioned thirteen years obviously, 14 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:53,639 Speaker 5: that is thirteen years since the beginning of the civil war. 15 00:00:53,760 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 5: But the Asset Asset dynasty, and here I'm talking about 16 00:00:56,360 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 5: the father half of it, Asset his son, but Shuttle 17 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 5: Assets took over early to all, They've been around since 18 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:05,800 Speaker 5: nineteen seventy. So if you think about it, most people 19 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 5: alive today do not know a Middle East, so that 20 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:11,840 Speaker 5: did not have the Atsad regime at the helm of Syria. 21 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 5: And of course they ruled with a very heavy thumb. 22 00:01:16,840 --> 00:01:21,399 Speaker 5: It was essentially a fatalitarian dictatorship. They were the only 23 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:24,360 Speaker 5: political party that was allowed. Political dissent was not allowed. 24 00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:28,760 Speaker 5: And now you're seeing these images of jubilation from Syrians 25 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:33,840 Speaker 5: inside and outside Syria, really celebrating the end of what 26 00:01:33,920 --> 00:01:36,640 Speaker 5: is known as and what was a very brutal, brutal 27 00:01:36,720 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 5: regime that imprisoned many political many prisoners for political reasons, 28 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:48,000 Speaker 5: and really pursued a government of oppression and repression. So 29 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 5: on one side, there are lots of scenes of jubilation. 30 00:01:51,040 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 5: Now on the other side, of course, this is the 31 00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 5: Middle East, and the big question here is what happened 32 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 5: next in terms of who takes over, but also in 33 00:01:58,120 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 5: terms of all the countries that had invested interests for 34 00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 5: whatever reason. And here I'm talking about the likes of Iran, 35 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:07,840 Speaker 5: about Russia, about Turkey, about Israel, about all of the 36 00:02:07,880 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 5: countries neighboring Syria that have a vested interest in what 37 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:12,280 Speaker 5: happens next with this country. 38 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:14,160 Speaker 6: Well, let's talk a little bit about that, and you 39 00:02:14,200 --> 00:02:17,440 Speaker 6: bring up the dynamic involving Turkey. I think about who 40 00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 6: the US has backed in this conflict as well, and 41 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:21,800 Speaker 6: I wonder how you see this playing out. A lot 42 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:23,920 Speaker 6: of people are bringing up what happened in Rock for instance, 43 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:27,360 Speaker 6: or Libya after the deposition of those leaders there. How 44 00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 6: much is that a good analogy as you see it, 45 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 6: and sort of how might. 46 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 7: This play out going forward. 47 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:33,280 Speaker 6: This is a country with a lot of disparate groups, 48 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 6: and I think hopes for democracy might be waning here 49 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 6: as we watch at this come together. 50 00:02:39,080 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 5: So you're going to hear a lot about a guy 51 00:02:41,080 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 5: called MOHAMMEDA Jiolani that is the leader of the rebel group, 52 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 5: the main rebel group, hts hey Atajesham, who we're leading 53 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:50,959 Speaker 5: the offense into Damascus at the last couple of days. 54 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 5: And one thing to know about him is he sort 55 00:02:53,400 --> 00:02:57,160 Speaker 5: of rebranded himself. He's actually changed back to his normal name, 56 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 5: Ahmed Shadah, that's the name that he wants to be 57 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:04,800 Speaker 5: known by, but also is trying to rebrand the group, 58 00:03:04,840 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 5: the militia group itself. It obviously has its foundations with 59 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 5: al Qaeda. What he's been trying to do over the 60 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 5: last couple of months is distanced himself and the group 61 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 5: from any Algaheda affiliation. Is by the way, very important 62 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:20,679 Speaker 5: to mention they're still labeled a terrorist organization by the 63 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:22,960 Speaker 5: US and other countries as well. This is HDS, the 64 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 5: main group that just toppled as that, and so yes, 65 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:29,600 Speaker 5: there is a lot of consternation about what this group 66 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:31,520 Speaker 5: is actually going to do. But then the second element 67 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 5: to note it was actually quite peaceful. So they stormed 68 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:38,440 Speaker 5: into all of these cities, but not a lot of 69 00:03:38,480 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 5: damage was reached. There wasn't a lot of bloodshed, there 70 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 5: wasn't a lot of exchange or battles or exchange of 71 00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:47,800 Speaker 5: fire on the battlegrounds, and actually in the end, Assaj 72 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 5: just fled to Russia per Russian state media, And so 73 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 5: the handovers so far has been sowhat of a peaceful transition. 74 00:03:55,880 --> 00:03:58,360 Speaker 5: But it's what they do with that power and whether 75 00:03:58,480 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 5: or not this one group HDI is going to manage 76 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 5: to get the support of all of these other rebel 77 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 5: forces that happen to be present in the country mentioned 78 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 5: isis as well, very small representation there, but still if 79 00:04:11,240 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 5: these small extremist groups see a window of opportunity or 80 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:17,040 Speaker 5: a vacuum, I think that will be the major concern 81 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 5: for the likes of the US obviously, who've been pursuing 82 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:22,640 Speaker 5: an anti Isis policy in the region for over a. 83 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 3: Decade now, So Jumana, what a folks in that part 84 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,280 Speaker 3: of the role think the US response will be, should 85 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:34,359 Speaker 3: be under president by an under president elect Trump? Is 86 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:37,240 Speaker 3: there an expectation of that? Do you also play some 87 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:38,839 Speaker 3: role going forward? 88 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:41,880 Speaker 5: We were speaking to some analysts on the show earlier 89 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:44,159 Speaker 5: today and they all had the same view, which is 90 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 5: that the US or President Trump himself, given his posts 91 00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:50,039 Speaker 5: over the weekend, may not want to be involved in Syria. 92 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 5: But unfortunately for him, he will have to be involved 93 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 5: in Syria simply because of its strategic importance and because 94 00:04:55,440 --> 00:04:58,359 Speaker 5: of all the players that we listed are involved in Syria. 95 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:02,040 Speaker 5: As for the troops, they are about nine hundred troops 96 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:05,240 Speaker 5: positions in the northeastern part of Syria, that is the 97 00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:09,800 Speaker 5: Turkish enclaves, and they are stationed there because again that 98 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:13,520 Speaker 5: is where they have been fighting some of these Isis forces. 99 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 5: So that group, the Free Serian Army as they know, 100 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,479 Speaker 5: and the Kurdish group are closely aligned to the US. 101 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 5: Enter President Erduwan from Turkey. His concern is the number 102 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:27,520 Speaker 5: of refugees that had been floding into Turkey since the 103 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 5: beginning of the Syrian Civil War its more than three 104 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:32,839 Speaker 5: and a half millions. The political point's closely watching what 105 00:05:33,000 --> 00:05:35,279 Speaker 5: is happening with the Kurdish enclaves on the border. Does 106 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 5: not want to see that region become an autonomous breakaway 107 00:05:38,000 --> 00:05:40,479 Speaker 5: region like what happens in Iraq. So the reason I 108 00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:42,680 Speaker 5: bring this all up is there are going to be 109 00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:46,280 Speaker 5: a lot of discussions negotiations going on vis a vis 110 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:49,279 Speaker 5: the future of Syria, not just in terms of Damascus 111 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:52,720 Speaker 5: and governance, but also these other regions as well, which 112 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:54,720 Speaker 5: for Turkey are very important. 113 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:57,159 Speaker 6: I want to ask you, lastly, just about a column 114 00:05:57,200 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 6: that John Authors, our colleague, wrote this morning. I thought 115 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:01,280 Speaker 6: it was fascinating and I think a question a lot 116 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:02,719 Speaker 6: of listeners will be asking you, So, how does this 117 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:04,720 Speaker 6: affect me? Why is this so important? I look at Syria, 118 00:06:04,760 --> 00:06:07,359 Speaker 6: it's not an oil producing nation, for instance, and he 119 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 6: writes it could be a great lit miss on the 120 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 6: state of Russia today and the power that Russia has 121 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 6: in President Putin has in particular. And so you talked 122 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:17,359 Speaker 6: about kind of the thirteen year civil war. This lasted 123 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 6: a long time until it didn't. Things really accelerated here 124 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 6: over these last two weeks but it might point to 125 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 6: some weakness on the part of Russia of Iran as well, 126 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:27,240 Speaker 6: And I wonder if you could just talk a bit 127 00:06:27,279 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 6: about that, kind of the broader geopolitical implications of this 128 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:32,160 Speaker 6: and sort of what it might tell us about these 129 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:34,800 Speaker 6: proxy governments who've been involved in this fight for so long. 130 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 5: Yeah, So one thing I want to bring up is 131 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:39,599 Speaker 5: the rebels actually started their offense to day Lebanon and 132 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:41,320 Speaker 5: Israel's signed this youth for I don't know if that 133 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 5: was a coincidence, but still they fence the window of 134 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:48,839 Speaker 5: opportunity there. And I think the analysis and the region 135 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:51,880 Speaker 5: suggests that what is trying to be done here is 136 00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 5: effectively block off the corridor that was Syria that allowed 137 00:06:55,839 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 5: for the transport of weapons from Iran into Iran's Ally, 138 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:03,800 Speaker 5: the militia has a lot in Lebanon, and Syria was 139 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 5: seen as a key corridor. So Number one is they 140 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:08,360 Speaker 5: want to limit the amount of arms and weapons and 141 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:10,800 Speaker 5: fighters that have been transported to Seria of the last 142 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 5: few years. 143 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:11,800 Speaker 8: Even drugs. 144 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 5: By the way, there's a big narco trade that people 145 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 5: don't really talk about. The second thing is chemical weapons. 146 00:07:17,360 --> 00:07:20,280 Speaker 5: Today there were some reports suggesting that the IDF had 147 00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 5: targeted a chemical weapons facility within Sarah, so you want 148 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,040 Speaker 5: to keep an eye on that and dismantling syrias full 149 00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:30,880 Speaker 5: chemical weapon warehouses. And then the third point, what you 150 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 5: were saying about Russia. They do still have a couple 151 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 5: of bases and air base and naval base on the 152 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 5: Syrian port, but it's less relevant for them and likely 153 00:07:38,000 --> 00:07:40,280 Speaker 5: what people are saying is they're going to use the 154 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 5: Syria negotiating points as a tactic to get more concessions 155 00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 5: on the Ukraine discussions, and of course they even involved 156 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:51,320 Speaker 5: in the war there for several years. Now. 157 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 3: All right, Jamana, thank you so much for joining us. 158 00:07:53,280 --> 00:07:56,440 Speaker 3: Jamala Brissecci a great reporting there. She'd anchor for Bloomberg Television. 159 00:07:56,480 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 3: She's based in Abu Dhabi, giving us the latest coming 160 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 3: out of Syria. 161 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live 162 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:12,120 Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 163 00:08:12,160 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 2: Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app, 164 00:08:15,520 --> 00:08:17,200 Speaker 2: or watch us live on YouTube. 165 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 4: University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. 166 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:20,360 Speaker 7: That's where you're going to start with this, That's where 167 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 7: I'm starting. 168 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I love nobody loves bashing Chapel Hill 169 00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 3: more than me. 170 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 7: But it's true. 171 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:27,160 Speaker 3: They have a lot of smart people coming out of 172 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 3: that place. Yeah, and a lot of them are employed 173 00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 3: here in journalism. I don't know what that's all about. 174 00:08:30,800 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 5: It. 175 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 6: I think they have a good jo, great business journalism 176 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:34,439 Speaker 6: based in particular Hight. 177 00:08:34,440 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 4: Can you tell me, I'll go with it. 178 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:38,880 Speaker 3: Callie Cox is one of them chief market strategists at 179 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:40,040 Speaker 3: rid Holt's Wealth Management. 180 00:08:40,080 --> 00:08:41,599 Speaker 4: She joins us here in our Bloomberg. 181 00:08:41,200 --> 00:08:43,199 Speaker 7: Gracious, that was the most gracious. 182 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:43,800 Speaker 2: I know. 183 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 4: It's the new meat. It's the new news. Yeah, exactly, 184 00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 4: I'm turning over new leaf. We can both co exist. 185 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 3: We're fifteen miles apart on true, you know, ten miles 186 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 3: fifteen to five to one between Durham and Chapel Hill. CALLI, 187 00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 3: you know we're thinking here, s and p five hundred 188 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 3: twenty seven twenty eight percent year to date, even on 189 00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 3: an equal weight basis, up sixteen seventeen percent year today. 190 00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,400 Speaker 3: Pretty solid returns for this equity market. How do you 191 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 3: guys kind of reset and think about twenty twenty five? 192 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 9: Well, I like what you said about equal weight, Paul, 193 00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:16,000 Speaker 9: because I think that's where the focus should be going 194 00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:17,960 Speaker 9: into twenty twenty five. Yes, the S and P has 195 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 9: had an incredible year. It's actually the second straight year 196 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:23,480 Speaker 9: of twenty percent gains, and we're telling the vesters not 197 00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:25,839 Speaker 9: to get too greedy. I mean, you don't see twenty 198 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 9: percent gains happen year after year very often, So, you know, 199 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 9: I think the point here is to look underneath the surface, 200 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,400 Speaker 9: look for value underneath the surface. And what you said 201 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:38,160 Speaker 9: about the equal weight index shows that we are getting 202 00:09:38,160 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 9: some return on those more value oriented stocks, those unloved 203 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:44,000 Speaker 9: areas of the bull market that are finally getting their 204 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:44,600 Speaker 9: day in the sun. 205 00:09:44,960 --> 00:09:47,559 Speaker 7: Give us a few of them, such as what's on? 206 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:49,640 Speaker 7: Where's the value? What's sud love? Does you see it? 207 00:09:49,800 --> 00:09:50,079 Speaker 4: Well? 208 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 9: Such as I think the easiest place to start is 209 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 9: stuff outside of tech. There's been a tech versus everything 210 00:09:57,480 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 9: else trade going on, So when people talk about valuations 211 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 9: in the S and P, typically they're talking about big 212 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:05,440 Speaker 9: tech valuations, and you have to sort out by sector 213 00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 9: and sector to really find the value. We really like 214 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:10,800 Speaker 9: great sensitive sectors here. I think real estate is interesting, 215 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:14,040 Speaker 9: you know. I think consumer discretionary could be interesting, especially 216 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:18,640 Speaker 9: if the economy holds up through twenty twenty five financials 217 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 9: you know, of course, have been. 218 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:21,320 Speaker 8: Really strong in the back half of the year. 219 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 9: You know, that could also be interesting, especially if the 220 00:10:23,760 --> 00:10:26,680 Speaker 9: economy surprises to the upside. But what we're communicating to 221 00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 9: investors is don't get too greedy, hear. But at the 222 00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:33,200 Speaker 9: same time, don't get too downtrodden on this market. There's 223 00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:35,640 Speaker 9: a great area that you can exist in going into 224 00:10:35,679 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 9: next year. 225 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 3: So you know, talking Abouarry Ridolts a lot, I mean, 226 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:41,640 Speaker 3: he kind of. I know you guys think really long 227 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:47,280 Speaker 3: term for your clients here, how do you think about Well, 228 00:10:47,320 --> 00:10:50,680 Speaker 3: let's let's step back. We're a month removed from the 229 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:53,360 Speaker 3: election here. We've got a new political outlook here for 230 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:55,480 Speaker 3: this country over the next four years, both in the 231 00:10:55,559 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 3: legislative branch as well as the executive branch. Did that 232 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:01,959 Speaker 3: change the way you guys are Holts think about opportunities 233 00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:03,680 Speaker 3: risk going forward? 234 00:11:03,960 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 8: Well, of course we discussed it, right. 235 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:08,080 Speaker 9: I feel like if you're a risk manager and you 236 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 9: haven't discussed the election and the potential changes in policy. 237 00:11:10,840 --> 00:11:11,920 Speaker 8: Then you're not doing your job. 238 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:15,600 Speaker 9: But we are catering to long term clients that are 239 00:11:15,600 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 9: looking ten twenty years down the road and at those point, 240 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 9: it really is a bunch of short term speculation. And 241 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 9: you know, I take comfort in the fact that I'm 242 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:26,040 Speaker 9: not a policy analyst. I'm not the one that has 243 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 9: to step out there and say tariffs could happen, tax 244 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 9: cuts could happen, you know, insert policy here, could happen. 245 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:35,800 Speaker 9: But what we tell investors is to kind of take 246 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:37,200 Speaker 9: the policy news as it comes. 247 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 8: We're not even at. 248 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 9: Inauguration day yet, we're not sure what policy will actually 249 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 9: be passed. And what we saw on twenty sixteen was 250 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 9: there was a lot of back and forth around policy, 251 00:11:46,040 --> 00:11:49,080 Speaker 9: and you know, it took years for everything to settle out. 252 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 9: So we're taking it as it comes. We're telling investors 253 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 9: to stay vigilant. 254 00:11:52,360 --> 00:11:55,840 Speaker 8: But to not you know, dive too far into headlines. There. 255 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:59,600 Speaker 6: We've got Veronica Clark, another uncalemna in the great room, 256 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,439 Speaker 6: Tari Hill coming up here. We'll talk about the fundamentals 257 00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:04,360 Speaker 6: of the labor market as she sees it. But could 258 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 6: you talk about the way in which, for instance, the 259 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:08,960 Speaker 6: job stated that we just got inform your thinking about 260 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:11,840 Speaker 6: positioning sort of the health of the economy, detailing that 261 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:15,040 Speaker 6: with your ilex so Les's about the politics and potential policy. 262 00:12:15,040 --> 00:12:17,160 Speaker 6: But what we're seeing in the real economy today. 263 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 9: Yeah, well, the job market is almost everything, David. You know, 264 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 9: Americans in this capitalist machine that we live in. You know, 265 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:26,640 Speaker 9: if Americans are getting money and they're spending money, the 266 00:12:26,679 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 9: economy most of the time is doing well. And that's 267 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 9: what was proven us over and over again in twenty 268 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 9: twenty two and twenty twenty three. So the job market 269 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:37,200 Speaker 9: is yet a moderate you know, expanding out a moderate 270 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:40,680 Speaker 9: pace right now. Unemployment is rising, which is concerning. Luckily, 271 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:43,160 Speaker 9: it's not rising on the layoff side. You know, when 272 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 9: people think about unemployment, they think about mass layoffs. 273 00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 8: That's not happening. 274 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:49,200 Speaker 9: It's more so people entering the labor force and not 275 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 9: necessarily finding a job so quickly, which isn't good, but 276 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:55,679 Speaker 9: it's not the worst news. So as we head into 277 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:58,200 Speaker 9: twenty twenty five, I mean, the job market has surprised us. 278 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:01,400 Speaker 9: All corporate profits are growing, so hopefully that leads to 279 00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:02,079 Speaker 9: more hiring. 280 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 8: But this is the biggest concern for me. 281 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 9: I mean, you see recessions and big market crises happen almost. 282 00:13:09,760 --> 00:13:11,160 Speaker 8: You know, in tandem with each other. 283 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:13,760 Speaker 9: So you know, as we head into twenty twenty five, 284 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 9: we're talking about the job market a lot. We're saying, 285 00:13:15,840 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 9: watch jobless claims, you know, keep keep your finger on 286 00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 9: the pulse of the pace of hiring and use that 287 00:13:22,720 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 9: to guide you when it comes to the economy and 288 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:25,840 Speaker 9: to what effect does. 289 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:28,680 Speaker 3: How about valuation, How do you guys think about valuation 290 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 3: these days in this marketplace? Because again just on the 291 00:13:31,200 --> 00:13:34,840 Speaker 3: SPX up twenty six, twenty seven, I'm not sure earnings 292 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 3: have grown that fast. 293 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:39,200 Speaker 9: They haven't, but people expect them to grow that fast 294 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:41,199 Speaker 9: and twenty five and I'm not sure how to feel 295 00:13:41,240 --> 00:13:44,160 Speaker 9: about that. But when we talk about value, value in 296 00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:46,840 Speaker 9: our minds at Rittholtz is the great equalizer. You know, 297 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:50,040 Speaker 9: markets over the long term balance out toward value. So 298 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:53,760 Speaker 9: we try to emphasize, you know, focusing on value, especially 299 00:13:53,840 --> 00:13:56,280 Speaker 9: in markets like these where there are pockets of value, 300 00:13:56,360 --> 00:14:00,720 Speaker 9: but then also pockets of you know, expensive stocks that 301 00:14:00,720 --> 00:14:04,680 Speaker 9: people are talking about, right, pockets of expensiveness. 302 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:04,680 Speaker 8: If that's a word. 303 00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:08,280 Speaker 9: So you know, val value is a big, you know 304 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 9: priority for us when we're thinking about investments at ridholds, 305 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:12,280 Speaker 9: and we still think there's a lot of value in 306 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 9: this market. 307 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:15,840 Speaker 7: I aspe you. Lastly, just about buybacks, I just I'm 308 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:17,960 Speaker 7: just have this. I'm very uninformed on all of it. 309 00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 6: I see that we're heading for another record here, and 310 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 6: obviously this is the time of hearing there're a lot 311 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:22,840 Speaker 6: more of them. How is that affecting the market. What 312 00:14:22,880 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 6: does that say to you about the health of the markets? 313 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 6: The quantity of buybacks that we're seeing from companies. 314 00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:28,240 Speaker 9: Well, I'm gonna put my analyst hat on and say 315 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 9: if your stock, if you own a stock and your 316 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 9: stock is doing a buyback, then that's probably the best 317 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 9: outcome for Youah, from a tax perspective. 318 00:14:35,280 --> 00:14:36,960 Speaker 8: Take a step back. You know, a lot of companies 319 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 8: are doing buybacks. 320 00:14:37,800 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 9: That's probably a good sign for the you know, year ahead, 321 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 9: although it could show that markets are a little bit frothy. 322 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:44,800 Speaker 8: I don't think too much about it, you know. 323 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 9: I think we're in this era where, you know, companies 324 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 9: are paying attention to their capital and to what they 325 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 9: can do for shareholders, not necessarily as much to workers. 326 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:55,480 Speaker 9: Although that's gotten a little bit better in the past 327 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 9: few years, and I'd like to see that come into 328 00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 9: balance a little bit more because I think that could 329 00:14:59,120 --> 00:15:01,160 Speaker 9: solve a lot of problems in the economy. But the 330 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:03,120 Speaker 9: level of buybacks right now? Isn't too much of a 331 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 9: concern for me. 332 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 7: No Belichick commentary, You don't want to get in on that. 333 00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 8: Well, I can't prepared. 334 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 4: So what is the thinking amongst the Chapel Hill folks? 335 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 4: Is he going there? 336 00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 7: I think it's like it's his if he wants it. 337 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 9: Is what I've read, it's almost a done deal. And 338 00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:21,040 Speaker 9: that's kind of crazy. We could have cut off sweatshirts 339 00:15:21,080 --> 00:15:21,560 Speaker 9: on the side. 340 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 3: Yes, I mean, I thought he would have gotten an 341 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 3: NFL job. 342 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 6: But I mean, well, I think he was looking. He 343 00:15:27,240 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 6: was looking at Jacksonville. Jacksonville was looking at him as well. 344 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 6: But who could resist Chapel Hill, you know. 345 00:15:31,760 --> 00:15:34,920 Speaker 3: I mean, it's a beautiful place college football right now. 346 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 4: It really is. 347 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:36,920 Speaker 5: It really is. 348 00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:39,840 Speaker 9: It's a great institution. It's a program that can grow. 349 00:15:39,880 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 9: We have a good amount of money. 350 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 3: It's a basketball school though, so I'm. 351 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:46,080 Speaker 7: Told they said that about Duke for many decades. 352 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 4: Now we'll go into another ball. 353 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 3: They can't go into the tax Slayer Bowl, Yes, Duke 354 00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 3: is so watch out. Cali Cox, thank you so much. 355 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:56,000 Speaker 3: We appreciate a Cali Coox, chief market strategist for Rit 356 00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:57,480 Speaker 3: Holt's Wealth Management. 357 00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:02,080 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 358 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:05,400 Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 359 00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:08,280 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 360 00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:11,480 Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 361 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:14,560 Speaker 2: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 362 00:16:14,640 --> 00:16:16,960 Speaker 3: President Like Donald Trump said he would use his powers 363 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:19,720 Speaker 3: on his quote first day in the White House their 364 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:21,960 Speaker 3: grand pardons to rioters involved in the attack on the 365 00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 3: US Capitol in January sixth, twenty twenty one. Quote I'm 366 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:29,440 Speaker 3: going to be acting very quickly, Trump said an interview 367 00:16:29,520 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 3: with NBC's Meet the Press on Friday. Henrietta Trez joins 368 00:16:33,320 --> 00:16:36,160 Speaker 3: us and she's a Vada partner. She helps us kind 369 00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 3: of understand what's happening down there in the world of Washington, 370 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 3: DC on the political front here. Henriette, Henrietta, thanks for 371 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 3: joining us here. How serious do you think President like 372 00:16:45,040 --> 00:16:47,880 Speaker 3: Trump is and what would that mean for him politically? 373 00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 1: I think he's very serious about that, and I think 374 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:55,120 Speaker 1: it's going to be hopefully on a case by case basis. 375 00:16:55,640 --> 00:16:57,640 Speaker 1: Some of these folks have been in prison for twenty 376 00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 1: plus years for hurting an assaulting police officers, so those 377 00:17:00,320 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 1: are more serious crimes. 378 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 10: But I think right out of the gate, he's looking 379 00:17:03,840 --> 00:17:07,440 Speaker 10: to deliver on some of the. 380 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:09,720 Speaker 1: Red meat that he promised his voters on the campaign trail. 381 00:17:09,800 --> 00:17:11,320 Speaker 1: We all know that the tax bill is going to 382 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 1: take a full year to complete. So some of the 383 00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:18,800 Speaker 1: other things on immigration, deportation in January six ers, things 384 00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:20,919 Speaker 1: along those lines are what I would expect in the 385 00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 1: first one hundred days of the next administration. 386 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 6: This was a wide ranging interview that Christen Welker conducted 387 00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 6: and something she did ask about is what plans he has, 388 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:31,439 Speaker 6: if any, for FED Chair Jerome Powell. What did you 389 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:33,080 Speaker 6: hear in that answer and how much do you think? 390 00:17:33,080 --> 00:17:36,200 Speaker 6: That was something that was of concern to investors, to 391 00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:38,639 Speaker 6: markets broadly, just this uncertainty about whether or not the 392 00:17:38,640 --> 00:17:41,879 Speaker 6: president elect had plans to remove or ask for the 393 00:17:41,880 --> 00:17:43,480 Speaker 6: removal of of FED Chair J Powell. 394 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 10: Yeah, for the street, this was really a huge issue. 395 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:48,000 Speaker 10: Maybe six months ago. 396 00:17:48,080 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 1: There was a lot of questions that I would always get, 397 00:17:50,320 --> 00:17:51,920 Speaker 1: you know, is J Powell safe? 398 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 10: His term runs until twenty twenty six. 399 00:17:54,200 --> 00:17:57,480 Speaker 1: I think that what President elect Trump has correctly assessed 400 00:17:57,520 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 1: is that it's not worth the. 401 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:00,639 Speaker 10: Political capital to go after j. 402 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 1: Powell create an undoe disruption from somebody who's otherwise very 403 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:09,879 Speaker 1: aggressively soothed markets and is speaking is something of a 404 00:18:09,920 --> 00:18:13,359 Speaker 1: calming force. I think that investors like the separation that 405 00:18:13,400 --> 00:18:16,600 Speaker 1: they're seeing more than anything else. And I think that 406 00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:18,679 Speaker 1: Jay Powell has gone a long way towards saying I 407 00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:22,360 Speaker 1: will not be leaving, and President Electrump has to adapt 408 00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 1: to that. So the markets and sort of keeping markets 409 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:27,720 Speaker 1: calm requires that Jape how will not be confronted in 410 00:18:27,720 --> 00:18:30,240 Speaker 1: any kind of way and President Electrump acknowledge that reality. 411 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 3: What do you believe is the to do list on 412 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:38,120 Speaker 3: day one of the Trump administration? How do you think 413 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 3: they're going to proceed really over that that first one 414 00:18:40,400 --> 00:18:42,399 Speaker 3: hundred days or whatever the relevant time period is. 415 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think that there are again some 416 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 1: sort of red meat hanging things like pardoning some of 417 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:50,119 Speaker 1: the January sixth and. 418 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 10: Insurrectionist makes a lot of sense. 419 00:18:51,720 --> 00:18:54,639 Speaker 1: The Senate Republican Conference is making it clear that the 420 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:56,320 Speaker 1: tax bill is going to take all year, so they're 421 00:18:56,320 --> 00:19:02,359 Speaker 1: diverting to three other issues, military preparedness, energy, and immigration. 422 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:08,240 Speaker 1: So I'm expecting a crackdown on immigration and deportations folks 423 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,160 Speaker 1: with temporary protected status I think should be on pretty 424 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 1: high alert as we try to identify who can be 425 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:18,679 Speaker 1: identified as an immigrant that maybe should not be here permanently, 426 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,280 Speaker 1: and going after folks that we can at least find. 427 00:19:21,840 --> 00:19:24,040 Speaker 10: So I think that that is where a lot of 428 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:25,040 Speaker 10: the focus is going to be. 429 00:19:25,520 --> 00:19:28,240 Speaker 1: Should we see any action on TERRAFS, I'm concerned that 430 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:31,119 Speaker 1: it's going to be via the International Emergency Economics Powers 431 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:33,639 Speaker 1: Act AIPA, which is something that the President can do 432 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:35,440 Speaker 1: with an executive order at the stroke of a pen. 433 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:39,600 Speaker 1: It does not involve something is advanced as withdrawing from 434 00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:41,960 Speaker 1: the Phase one agreement with China, though that is also 435 00:19:42,080 --> 00:19:45,240 Speaker 1: something that they could telegraph on day one. But under AIPA, 436 00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:47,720 Speaker 1: you get a focus on immigration with Canada and Mexico 437 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 1: and then fentanel with those countries as well as China, 438 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:54,439 Speaker 1: and so there you can see some movement on tariffs immediately. 439 00:19:54,720 --> 00:19:57,040 Speaker 1: As you know, the Customs and Border Patrol guys can 440 00:19:57,160 --> 00:19:59,680 Speaker 1: change high freates within twelve hours, so that could really 441 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:01,640 Speaker 1: be an immediately effective development. 442 00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:03,160 Speaker 7: I want to get. 443 00:20:02,960 --> 00:20:07,439 Speaker 6: Your read on what this economic team looks like, how 444 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:10,600 Speaker 6: happy Wall Street should be with its composition, so a 445 00:20:10,600 --> 00:20:12,720 Speaker 6: couple of weeks back we had Scott Best put forward 446 00:20:12,720 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 6: as the presence picked to be the next Treasury secretary. 447 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:18,120 Speaker 6: There is this great sigh of relief. I heard it 448 00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:20,159 Speaker 6: that you know, he's somebody that Wall Street knows and 449 00:20:20,160 --> 00:20:22,239 Speaker 6: has seen sort of as a moderating figure, somebody who 450 00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 6: might push against the president elects worse instincts when it 451 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 6: comes to trade policy, for instance. And then we get 452 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:33,639 Speaker 6: this appointment of Peter Navarro noted Rabble Rouser noted China Hawk. 453 00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:36,000 Speaker 6: And I wonder what that tells you about what meetings 454 00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,520 Speaker 6: are going to be like of that economic team. You know, yes, 455 00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 6: in the cabinet room, but beyond that, sort of how 456 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:43,359 Speaker 6: loud his voice is going to be, and sort of 457 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:47,439 Speaker 6: what that potential boisterous disagreement is going to mean for 458 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:50,600 Speaker 6: the direction of economic policy in this second Trump term. 459 00:20:51,760 --> 00:20:55,200 Speaker 1: I have no expectations that Scott Bessett as Treasury Secretary 460 00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,879 Speaker 1: is going to be a mitigating force against the tariff 461 00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:00,400 Speaker 1: minded members of the rest of the cabinet, whether that's 462 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 1: Howard Letnik at Commerce, whether that's Peter Navarro in a 463 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:08,280 Speaker 1: trade sort of overarching position, Kevin Hassett, who is a 464 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:11,960 Speaker 1: very well known person on Capitol Hill, it is going 465 00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,159 Speaker 1: to be in the ear of members. You see that 466 00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 1: in Jamison Greer, who is chief of staff to Ambassador Lthheiser. 467 00:21:17,320 --> 00:21:20,160 Speaker 10: There are folks with deep experience in DC and Scott 468 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:21,480 Speaker 10: besson is not that guy. 469 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,480 Speaker 1: So while wall Street might have some comfort knowing that 470 00:21:24,520 --> 00:21:29,240 Speaker 1: he has invested funds before and speaks wall Street's language, 471 00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:31,359 Speaker 1: He's not the one that is going to be the 472 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:33,960 Speaker 1: muscle in the room, either at the cabinet level or 473 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill. So I'm expecting the folks who are 474 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,760 Speaker 1: very supportive of tariffs, including most importantly President Elect Trump, 475 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:42,879 Speaker 1: to have a much louder voice. And you see that 476 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:47,760 Speaker 1: in legislation that's already been introduced by Chairman Molinar about 477 00:21:47,760 --> 00:21:51,720 Speaker 1: the stripping China of its PNTR status. The trade focus, 478 00:21:51,800 --> 00:21:55,280 Speaker 1: the tariff focus is very aggressive and well built out. 479 00:21:55,600 --> 00:21:59,200 Speaker 1: The Scott Bessett camp that maybe supports a more gradual 480 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,800 Speaker 1: increase entire of five percent every month, which is what 481 00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:03,639 Speaker 1: I last heard from him, is something that I think 482 00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:07,280 Speaker 1: is going to see a much diminished role as we 483 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:08,640 Speaker 1: get into the next administration. 484 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:13,760 Speaker 3: Mass deportations. Is there any feeling in Washington, d C? 485 00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:16,159 Speaker 3: How that would actually work. 486 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm having preliminary conversations with staff right now, and 487 00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 1: I think one of the big concerns is about the 488 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,520 Speaker 1: impact that this is going to have on primary season, 489 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 1: on general election season. 490 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,680 Speaker 10: On the legislative to do list for Congress. 491 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:34,480 Speaker 1: So as we get into next year, in the first quarter, 492 00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,840 Speaker 1: it's likely that we're going to have a conversation about 493 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,320 Speaker 1: a government shutdown if they fund the government through March, 494 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:41,879 Speaker 1: about the debt ceiling, which is going to be highly 495 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:44,240 Speaker 1: contentious for Republicans to deal with, and if in the 496 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:46,840 Speaker 1: backdrop of that we have you know, folks, this is 497 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,480 Speaker 1: exactly what Staff says to me. If people's grandmothers are 498 00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 1: being deported, then we have a very real problem. People 499 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:55,479 Speaker 1: point out Miami Dade specifically as an area that's going 500 00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:57,840 Speaker 1: to be a concern a lot of Republicans now in 501 00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,679 Speaker 1: the state of Florida, newly elected Republicans in the gains 502 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:02,639 Speaker 1: that Trump has made there in the last eight years, 503 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 1: and that's really something that they're considering sort of the 504 00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:09,399 Speaker 1: backdrop to the legislative agenda, and that's as they're trying 505 00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 1: to get democratic support for keeping the government open or 506 00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:15,040 Speaker 1: hiking the debt ceiling, and if there are mass deportations 507 00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,520 Speaker 1: going on, I'm not expecting a lot of Democratic support 508 00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,280 Speaker 1: for whatever is in the Republican's agenda, whether it's. 509 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:23,920 Speaker 10: Trump's or Majority leader funds or Speaker Johnson's. 510 00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 3: Henrietta trace thank you so much for joining us. Always 511 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:29,200 Speaker 3: appreciate getting some of your perspective. Henryetta Trada. 512 00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:31,240 Speaker 4: She's a managing partner of Data Partners. 513 00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:40,760 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 514 00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 515 00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch 516 00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:50,359 Speaker 2: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the 517 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:51,359 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal. 518 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,360 Speaker 3: Your daily look at the front pages around the world, 519 00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:55,080 Speaker 3: Lisa Mittel newspapers. 520 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:56,120 Speaker 4: What do you have for us today? Lisa? 521 00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:56,400 Speaker 5: Okay. 522 00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:59,240 Speaker 11: So this is the management top two hundred and fifty ranking. 523 00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 11: Soft actually has been dethrown from that annual list this 524 00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:06,359 Speaker 11: year eight hundred and forty two companies. They were graded 525 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,800 Speaker 11: five categories, unseating Microsoft for the number one spot. Is 526 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:11,520 Speaker 11: I don't know if you have any guesses, but it 527 00:24:11,600 --> 00:24:12,479 Speaker 11: is Apple. 528 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:13,760 Speaker 5: Yeah. 529 00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:16,680 Speaker 11: I kind of guessed that Microsoft held actually that top 530 00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 11: spot for the past four years. So if you look 531 00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:23,119 Speaker 11: at the top four, then you have Nvidia, followed by Microsoft. 532 00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:24,159 Speaker 4: And then there's Intel. 533 00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:26,680 Speaker 11: But two other tech companies actually, yeah they scored in 534 00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:30,240 Speaker 11: the top ten. You have Alphabet and Adobe also in there. 535 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 11: But for non tech companies also in the top ten 536 00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:38,200 Speaker 11: like MasterCard, Philip Morris, Johnson and Johnson Procter and Gamble too. 537 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,720 Speaker 11: But yeah, Microsoft has been dethroned from that. 538 00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:44,800 Speaker 3: Interesting how they I guess how they rate them ranked 539 00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 3: the stock price, performance return, financial returns to people like 540 00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:49,159 Speaker 3: working there. 541 00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 4: I don't know, but it's interesting. 542 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 3: So there's a lot of technology companies, yeah, a lot, 543 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:55,640 Speaker 3: a lot of technicals. 544 00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,240 Speaker 7: Healthcare at the bottom of that list, oh life, exactly. 545 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,120 Speaker 3: You know all bash healthcare companies for the high cost 546 00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:04,600 Speaker 3: of drugs, just like anybody else. 547 00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:09,080 Speaker 4: A pandemic they came through. Yeah, I mean a year 548 00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,720 Speaker 4: after they come out with the vaccines. How about that? 549 00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:13,399 Speaker 6: And it seems like this may be telling the story 550 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:15,639 Speaker 6: of that. How well they did then yeap, and now 551 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 6: where we are and sort of how the things ebbed 552 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:18,560 Speaker 6: and flowed a little bit. 553 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:20,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly, all right, what's next? 554 00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,840 Speaker 11: Okay? Mayor Eric Adams New York City being criticized for 555 00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,679 Speaker 11: administration picks to run that downtown Manhattan heliport, you know 556 00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:29,240 Speaker 11: the one that we have here. The Post actually has this. 557 00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:32,760 Speaker 11: They explain why because they say the administration shows two 558 00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:36,359 Speaker 11: foreign firms to run that heliport is actually owned by 559 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:39,160 Speaker 11: the city and it has a lot of national security 560 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:43,680 Speaker 11: circles word because the President's Marine one chopper uses it. Yeah, yeah, 561 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:47,160 Speaker 11: and then US military federal law officials. 562 00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:47,920 Speaker 8: Use it as well. 563 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:49,240 Speaker 4: City run it. 564 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:52,200 Speaker 11: Is city owned, Yeah, city owned heliport. So it's the 565 00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:56,520 Speaker 11: Economic Development Corporation. So they chose it's Downtown Skyport that's 566 00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,879 Speaker 11: a partnership between Skyport's infrastructure, a UK based firm, and 567 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:05,320 Speaker 11: then they chose Frances Group ADP that operates Paris's three airports. 568 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 11: So both companies they replace Sacred Aviation that was before it. 569 00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:11,239 Speaker 11: But they're just saying that, you know a lot of 570 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:13,840 Speaker 11: information is given there and then you have foreign companies 571 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 11: kind of running it, so they're saying that could. 572 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 7: Be my I goes to this. 573 00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:21,159 Speaker 6: The current operator faced controversy last year after it was 574 00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:23,119 Speaker 6: revealed that William Walked held chairman of the board of 575 00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,920 Speaker 6: sax Aviation Is Law partners with Morris mystery a board member. 576 00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,240 Speaker 7: At the e DC. So I think that's what precipitated this. 577 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,160 Speaker 8: Yes, a little. 578 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,400 Speaker 11: Conflict of interest there, just a bit, just a bit. 579 00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:34,480 Speaker 4: I don't fly a helicopter. 580 00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:36,640 Speaker 7: You haven't, No, only on rare occasions. Are you flying 581 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:37,280 Speaker 7: from New Jersey? 582 00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:38,639 Speaker 11: Well, the thing they're saying, because you know a lot 583 00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:40,920 Speaker 11: of people complain about the noise in the area from 584 00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:43,440 Speaker 11: all the helicopters. Yeah, so the thing that they said 585 00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,199 Speaker 11: was downtown Skyport. They actually developed the use of quieter 586 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:50,159 Speaker 11: electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft. So maybe interesting that 587 00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,040 Speaker 11: can help out. But yeah, still some concern there though. Okay, 588 00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:56,399 Speaker 11: so this next story and that, Paul, I know you 589 00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:57,439 Speaker 11: haven't been on a disney. 590 00:26:57,840 --> 00:26:58,199 Speaker 3: I have been. 591 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:02,159 Speaker 4: You have the two for animals investors. 592 00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:04,120 Speaker 3: They would take you when you fly out to LA 593 00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:07,040 Speaker 3: one time than one time we did it out of Miami, 594 00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 3: and they take you out for like an overnight and 595 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:11,719 Speaker 3: then you come back in. So it's like literally if 596 00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:14,119 Speaker 3: you go an overnight, right, and so you give your 597 00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:16,320 Speaker 3: holdings in the afternoon and then you you know, you 598 00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:19,879 Speaker 3: go party crazy overnight and then you cruise back for 599 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:21,800 Speaker 3: all the analysts and investors. So I did that twice 600 00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,360 Speaker 3: and their cruise ships. Having been on a few cruise 601 00:27:24,359 --> 00:27:27,639 Speaker 3: ships just for analyst meetings, they are diffressed. 602 00:27:27,800 --> 00:27:28,680 Speaker 7: Oh yeah, huge. 603 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:32,080 Speaker 4: The quality is unbelievable. And you've taken the family David note, 604 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:32,439 Speaker 4: I have not. 605 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:36,200 Speaker 6: I never can leased on any vessel Disney or otherwise. 606 00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:37,960 Speaker 6: But I have gone to Disney World. 607 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:38,639 Speaker 7: That's my latest. 608 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:39,040 Speaker 4: But they have. 609 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:42,199 Speaker 11: They're really putting their money behind it. They want to 610 00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,600 Speaker 11: more than double their fleet from six to thirteen ships 611 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:47,359 Speaker 11: by twenty thirty one. But it's a good time. 612 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:47,640 Speaker 4: For it, right. 613 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,760 Speaker 11: You have cruise travel surpassing pre pandemic levels. You have 614 00:27:50,840 --> 00:27:55,720 Speaker 11: these bigger ships, big amenities, rising international affairs. So people say, 615 00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:57,280 Speaker 11: you know what, it's cheaper for me to just take 616 00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,160 Speaker 11: a ship at a report by. 617 00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,240 Speaker 8: US instead of booking the whole international fair. 618 00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,919 Speaker 11: But they do cost more than let's say, Royal Caribbean 619 00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:09,000 Speaker 11: or Carnival. That's the other thing. But a big focus 620 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:11,320 Speaker 11: is actually this was interesting. This was on the Bloomberg 621 00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:15,200 Speaker 11: is the Asian market because they don't have those things. Yeah, 622 00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:19,680 Speaker 11: so they book those trips. They're launching Disney Adventure. It's 623 00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:22,919 Speaker 11: the biggest ship yet holds up to sixty seven hundred 624 00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:26,760 Speaker 11: passengers and it's going tickets go and sales starting tomorrow 625 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:27,920 Speaker 11: for that a year in advance. 626 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:33,840 Speaker 4: Wow, you've got this rendering. The thing is just massive. 627 00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:36,920 Speaker 6: They already seem so like even just around New York 628 00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,440 Speaker 6: if you look in Brooklyn or on the West Side, 629 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:41,880 Speaker 6: they're so huge as it is, I can't imagine them 630 00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:42,560 Speaker 6: being twice. 631 00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:43,880 Speaker 4: As big as Yeah, it's crazy. 632 00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:44,120 Speaker 1: I mean. 633 00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,520 Speaker 3: I was actually taking the ferry from the East side 634 00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 3: Manhattan down to the Jersey Shore a couple of weeks 635 00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:51,800 Speaker 3: ago and just looking at my phone, looking at my phone, 636 00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 3: I happened to just look up and we were passing 637 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:57,440 Speaker 3: a cruise ship that blocked out the entire side, Like 638 00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:59,160 Speaker 3: you know, I noticed I was looking at my phone 639 00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:04,000 Speaker 3: and then it got so anyway, Charlie Pellett is our 640 00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:06,880 Speaker 3: resident cruise person, so if you need any like, I wonder. 641 00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:07,800 Speaker 4: If he's been in the Disney one. 642 00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:12,120 Speaker 11: We're gonna have to ask him say about that. And finally, Ah, 643 00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:16,160 Speaker 11: the end of the Era Taylor Swift concert tour closes. 644 00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:17,840 Speaker 11: Record breaking ticket sales hit. 645 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:24,680 Speaker 9: It ken's typical Tuesday that I'm listening to the music. 646 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:27,720 Speaker 4: Swift. 647 00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,840 Speaker 11: Okay, you know booth in the local economy. But now 648 00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:32,920 Speaker 11: her touring company is telling the New York Times there 649 00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:37,800 Speaker 11: is a say it's It's one ninth final show, which 650 00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 11: has a British comments. 651 00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:42,120 Speaker 4: Okay, sold just overtime ability. 652 00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 11: Sales double the roasticket sales of any. 653 00:29:47,840 --> 00:30:05,680 Speaker 3: Other So string got a hotel over ninety people mules 654 00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:09,040 Speaker 3: in Philadelphia saw the show down in Piladelphia, giving probably 655 00:30:09,280 --> 00:30:12,200 Speaker 3: five hundred or seven und fleet dollars economic. 656 00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:13,800 Speaker 4: Value in the city Philadelphia. So I think it's a 657 00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:15,720 Speaker 4: real It's definitely a real thing. At con it's a 658 00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:16,280 Speaker 4: huge effect. 659 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:17,640 Speaker 7: And then you know, I didn't see a show, but 660 00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:19,520 Speaker 7: we saw the movie. I know there's all those things 661 00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:20,800 Speaker 7: as well, because there was that in. 662 00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:25,080 Speaker 11: The movie, the book, the packed with Disney to stream 663 00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:28,160 Speaker 11: the thing Disney plus I mean that's not even including that. 664 00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:30,680 Speaker 11: So yeah, she's been a powerhouse for short. 665 00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:32,880 Speaker 3: All right, newspapers, Lisa gonna tell you, thank you so much. 666 00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:34,280 Speaker 3: We appreciate that. 667 00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:38,800 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 668 00:30:39,000 --> 00:30:42,560 Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each 669 00:30:42,640 --> 00:30:46,080 Speaker 2: weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 670 00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,800 Speaker 2: the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. 671 00:30:50,080 --> 00:30:53,120 Speaker 2: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 672 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,240 Speaker 2: and always on the Bloomberg Terminal