WEBVTT - Syria / Havana Syndrome 0:00:01.360 --> 0:00:04.480 I'm John Cipher and I'm Jerry O'Shea. I was a 0:00:04.480 --> 0:00:07.840 CIA officer stationed around the world in high threat posts 0:00:07.840 --> 0:00:09.559 in Europe, Russia, and in Asia. 0:00:09.600 --> 0:00:12.680 And I served in Africa, Asia, Europe, the Middle East 0:00:12.760 --> 0:00:16.840 and in war zones. We sometimes created conspiracies to deceive 0:00:16.880 --> 0:00:17.799 our adversaries. 0:00:18.079 --> 0:00:21.760 Now we're going to use our expertise to deconstruct conspiracy 0:00:21.800 --> 0:00:24.720 theories large and small. Could they be true? 0:00:25.000 --> 0:00:26.280 Or are we being manipulated? 0:00:26.800 --> 0:00:28.880 This is mission implausible. 0:00:31.640 --> 0:00:34.360 Hey guys, I wait, have either of you been to Syria? 0:00:34.479 --> 0:00:35.880 Have you spent time in Syria? 0:00:36.040 --> 0:00:36.080 No? 0:00:36.680 --> 0:00:39.559 Yes, well I've crossed the borrier. 0:00:40.159 --> 0:00:43.480 Put my foot over all right, I have friends who've 0:00:43.479 --> 0:00:45.080 served in Syria for a long time. You know what's 0:00:45.120 --> 0:00:48.000 interesting about Syria When you talk to former agency get 0:00:48.000 --> 0:00:50.000 people about where they've been and where they like. It 0:00:50.080 --> 0:00:52.159 is amazing to me how many people say Syria is 0:00:52.159 --> 0:00:54.360 the favorite place they've been. They like the people the most, 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:56.240 They liked the culture, the food. 0:00:56.080 --> 0:00:59.720 Like I loved Syria. I spent time in Damascus, time 0:00:59.800 --> 0:01:02.440 in Aleppo, not a ton of time, but a few weeks, 0:01:02.480 --> 0:01:05.000 and all of that. Like the people, the food, like 0:01:05.160 --> 0:01:06.360 the architect. 0:01:06.000 --> 0:01:07.200 Like the torture. 0:01:07.800 --> 0:01:10.640 No, I didn't like that so much. Yeah, and I 0:01:10.720 --> 0:01:12.880 was there long before I was there in two thousand 0:01:12.880 --> 0:01:14.560 and three, two thousand and four, that kind of timeframe, 0:01:14.680 --> 0:01:17.960 so well before the Civil War. So here's a question 0:01:18.040 --> 0:01:21.040 I had, like when suddenly the borders open, like I 0:01:21.080 --> 0:01:24.080 got into Iraq right when the borders opened, I have 0:01:24.120 --> 0:01:26.040 to assume I have a bunch of friends I haven't checked, 0:01:26.040 --> 0:01:28.959 who are like flooding into Syria right now? Are there 0:01:29.480 --> 0:01:33.120 CIA officers, people from other intelligence agencies? Are they just 0:01:33.240 --> 0:01:37.160 flooding into Syrian right now? Is that what happens? Because 0:01:37.240 --> 0:01:39.440 journal let me tell you what's happening right now with journalists, 0:01:39.840 --> 0:01:44.520 every war photographer, radio, war reporter, print reporter. They're calling 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:47.000 each other, They're texting each other. How are you going in? 0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:48.600 Are you going in from Turkey? Are you going in 0:01:48.640 --> 0:01:50.840 from Lebanon? Are you going up from Jordan? Are you 0:01:50.840 --> 0:01:52.840 you know? Are you going in from the Kurdish areas? 0:01:52.880 --> 0:01:55.160 What roads are good? What hotels are safe? 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:55.559 Hey? 0:01:55.680 --> 0:01:58.120 I got a guy in Holmes who I trust, you 0:01:58.160 --> 0:02:00.919 can stay with him. And they're all talking this through 0:02:01.080 --> 0:02:03.640 and they're figuring out and where should we go? Is 0:02:03.640 --> 0:02:07.000 there a spokesman like can we find like, who's somebody 0:02:07.040 --> 0:02:09.080 who can tell us what's going on? Oh? Are there 0:02:09.080 --> 0:02:11.720 a different regions? So that a lot of journalists are 0:02:11.720 --> 0:02:13.880 doing that, And generally the way journalists work is it's 0:02:13.880 --> 0:02:15.840 not like the editor of the New York Times and 0:02:15.840 --> 0:02:18.360 the editor. It's like a bunch of on the ground 0:02:18.639 --> 0:02:22.640 field reporters with experience trying to figure this stuff out. 0:02:22.720 --> 0:02:26.079 It's actually really fun, Like I loved figuring out all 0:02:26.120 --> 0:02:29.320 sorts of different routes into Iraq. And so what would 0:02:29.320 --> 0:02:32.079 be happening right now? What's your guests like at CIA? 0:02:32.280 --> 0:02:34.400 Are they sending a bunch of people in find out 0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:36.080 what's going on? Make contact? 0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:37.880 I don't think there's a need to be sending people 0:02:37.880 --> 0:02:41.040 in right away. We're not really reporting in that sense. 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:43.520 But what will be happening and has been happening all 0:02:43.560 --> 0:02:47.080 along is CIA people who work with our partners in 0:02:47.200 --> 0:02:49.600 Israel and in Jordan and Turkey, and also we'd be 0:02:49.639 --> 0:02:53.120 talking to all the folks there that have knowledge specifically 0:02:53.120 --> 0:02:55.200 of people who should we contact, what do we know 0:02:55.360 --> 0:02:57.519 they're doing. Some of the issues that are going to 0:02:57.600 --> 0:03:01.679 be top of mind are okay, regime had chemical and 0:03:01.720 --> 0:03:05.480 biological facilities are they safe. What if the rebels get 0:03:05.480 --> 0:03:07.760 to them, does that matter who's staying there? Are they 0:03:07.800 --> 0:03:10.960 still secure? You saw it yesterday that the US military 0:03:11.160 --> 0:03:14.160 was hitting Isis areas to make sure Isis didn't flow 0:03:14.200 --> 0:03:16.480 in as part of this process. So it'll be a 0:03:16.520 --> 0:03:19.639 process very quickly. I'm trying to work with everybody who 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:22.720 has interest in Syria and figure out what's the best 0:03:22.760 --> 0:03:24.840 way so that if we do need to contact very 0:03:24.919 --> 0:03:26.880 quickly someone who's going to be setting up a new 0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:29.639 security system there to talk through some of the key 0:03:29.639 --> 0:03:31.200 issues we're going to have to deal with in terms 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:34.440 of keeping some facilities secure, or you know, what is 0:03:34.440 --> 0:03:36.600 your plan with the Russian and the Russian bases and 0:03:36.600 --> 0:03:38.360 those type of things. So it's going to be a 0:03:38.440 --> 0:03:40.680 busy time. But it isn't as if people are looking 0:03:40.680 --> 0:03:42.080 to rush across the border. 0:03:42.120 --> 0:03:45.200 No, So the question you've got is wrong, as we're 0:03:45.240 --> 0:03:48.200 not trying to get in to take a snapshot. The 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:51.520 work to a certain extent has already been done. I've 0:03:51.560 --> 0:03:55.960 got to assume that we already have contacts with most 0:03:56.000 --> 0:04:00.840 of the various gorilla groups or with governments that have contact, 0:04:00.880 --> 0:04:04.640 and it's something that we have worked on for years Weirdly, 0:04:04.920 --> 0:04:08.920 if we have really good assets in Syria, like in 0:04:08.960 --> 0:04:11.520 the ASCID government, they're not really worth anything to us 0:04:11.560 --> 0:04:14.480 anymore because they're not in powers. And if we did 0:04:14.520 --> 0:04:18.680 our job, we should have structures already in place. We 0:04:18.720 --> 0:04:21.680 did in Afghanistan. I mean, we were talking to the 0:04:21.720 --> 0:04:24.880 Northern Alliance already, we were talking to to Dustin, We 0:04:24.920 --> 0:04:28.160 already had those pre existing relationships going in. 0:04:28.680 --> 0:04:30.920 I don't know her personally, but I do know of 0:04:30.920 --> 0:04:34.440 one of Asad's top agents. Although she's gonna be Ndi 0:04:34.680 --> 0:04:39.400 so or Day and I that Director of National tell. 0:04:39.279 --> 0:04:41.760 Us that would have been the perfect joke if you 0:04:42.080 --> 0:04:43.320 bummed that screwed it up. 0:04:43.560 --> 0:04:48.120 Yeah, no, no, no, he's gonna have you know, a 0:04:48.240 --> 0:04:50.839 sod's gonna go. He's gonna have a condo next to 0:04:50.839 --> 0:04:52.320 Tulsi here in Kaylua. 0:04:52.480 --> 0:04:54.039 I think he's going to be in a high rise 0:04:54.120 --> 0:04:57.040 in Moscow with a big window and a big balcony 0:04:57.080 --> 0:04:57.800 that could be used. 0:04:57.960 --> 0:04:58.760 He may fall out of you. 0:04:59.200 --> 0:05:01.080 I mean, we'll see what happens. But what use is 0:05:01.120 --> 0:05:04.480 he That is interesting. But I have to assume Israel 0:05:04.560 --> 0:05:08.200 must have people all over like the villages Jordan, Turkey. 0:05:08.240 --> 0:05:10.360 They have like proper intelligence, they have. 0:05:10.360 --> 0:05:12.839 Relationships for They had a long time from Lebanon and 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:15.039 the DRUS because it's their border and they've been paying 0:05:15.040 --> 0:05:16.920 attention to those issues. So there's going to be Those 0:05:16.920 --> 0:05:19.240 are people we're going to work with two figure out 0:05:19.240 --> 0:05:21.200 what are the key things that need to be done here. 0:05:21.400 --> 0:05:23.480 One other thing is we sort of tend to assume 0:05:23.680 --> 0:05:26.920 there's a plan. And my best get guess is the 0:05:26.920 --> 0:05:28.440 way this rolled out and talking to people who know 0:05:28.440 --> 0:05:31.560 a lot more about serious me is even the rebels 0:05:31.600 --> 0:05:34.640 were surprised at how fast. I don't think they know 0:05:34.760 --> 0:05:36.880 what their government's going to look like or what their policy. 0:05:36.960 --> 0:05:39.360 So we can't really collect on something that hasn't been 0:05:39.600 --> 0:05:42.279 decided yet. And we're not in the business of getting 0:05:42.279 --> 0:05:44.200 our crystal ball out and saying this is what's going 0:05:44.240 --> 0:05:44.640 to happen. 0:05:44.720 --> 0:05:46.719 Yeah, finding the plan when there is none is always 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:47.400 a tough thing to do. 0:05:47.640 --> 0:05:50.720 And you've talked a lot about how CIA changed tremendously 0:05:50.720 --> 0:05:53.799 in the seventies, Like there was a time where CIA 0:05:53.880 --> 0:05:58.040 played a role in succession in Iran, in Honduras and 0:05:58.320 --> 0:06:01.839 in Guatemala. Do we do that anymore? Like we would? 0:06:01.960 --> 0:06:04.320 There are people we would really want not to take 0:06:04.360 --> 0:06:05.760 power in Syria. 0:06:05.920 --> 0:06:07.920 That would be a policy decision. So if the White 0:06:07.920 --> 0:06:11.599 House NSC sits down and says, okay, we have information 0:06:11.720 --> 0:06:14.880 that don't know there's nuclear weapons being made in Syria, 0:06:14.920 --> 0:06:16.680 the Ranians have been hiding there or something, and there's 0:06:16.680 --> 0:06:19.360 some issues that are of great concern, and we want 0:06:19.400 --> 0:06:21.720 the CIA to actually go in and find a way 0:06:21.760 --> 0:06:23.599 to get those out of there. That would be a 0:06:23.640 --> 0:06:26.640 covert action that the President would sign and brief to 0:06:26.680 --> 0:06:29.160 the Congress and ask the CIA to do so. Or 0:06:29.200 --> 0:06:31.960 they might say, listen, there is a faction there that 0:06:32.000 --> 0:06:34.600 we want to be in charge, and we want you 0:06:34.680 --> 0:06:36.800 to try to go in and work with them and 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:39.920 help them and pay them. Conceivably, yes, they could ask 0:06:39.960 --> 0:06:42.560 the CIA to do those kind of things. I suspect 0:06:42.600 --> 0:06:44.279 at this point they're just trying to figure out what's 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:45.040 going on first. 0:06:45.360 --> 0:06:47.640 I will say, having spent a little time as a 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:52.520 reporter in immediate post crisis countries, literally nobody knows what's 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:55.039 going on, and everyone who might tell you what's going 0:06:55.080 --> 0:06:59.239 on has a vested interest or so it just figuring out. 0:07:00.000 --> 0:07:02.840 That's why they we do conspiracies, right. Conspiracy is actually 0:07:03.000 --> 0:07:05.200 trying to put a pattern too randomness, right, So I 0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:07.280 can't accept that there's no story here. I need to 0:07:07.320 --> 0:07:09.520 create a narrative. I need to understand what's going on here. 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:11.480 And essentially that's what we do in these things. Someone 0:07:11.480 --> 0:07:13.600 comes in and the first person who writes an article 0:07:13.680 --> 0:07:16.360 for the New Yorker, for the Russian posts, or here's 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:18.640 what's happening, and then everybody sort of flows from that. 0:07:18.760 --> 0:07:20.360 It's not probably not clear to the people who were 0:07:20.360 --> 0:07:21.800 involved what's going to be happened. 0:07:22.160 --> 0:07:25.560 What often happens these certainly in the past, places like 0:07:25.560 --> 0:07:28.600 Afghanistan or when the Soviet Union fell, a lot of 0:07:28.640 --> 0:07:32.320 the like the newly independent countries wanted to reach out 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:36.160 privately to the US and not go through diplomatic channels 0:07:36.160 --> 0:07:38.360 and chieve it as quiet as they could, and they 0:07:38.440 --> 0:07:42.440 often used CIA as a back channel to like, look, 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:43.800 we want to talk to you, we want to keep 0:07:43.840 --> 0:07:46.800 it quiet, and oftentimes that's what we function as. It's 0:07:46.880 --> 0:07:49.400 just a way to communicate with these people. And then 0:07:49.560 --> 0:07:51.160 it's up to them do they want to put it 0:07:51.240 --> 0:07:52.960 up to the diplomatic level or do they want to 0:07:53.000 --> 0:07:55.520 maintain it, And often they do because they were often 0:07:55.600 --> 0:07:58.080 trusted and we do keep secrets. 0:07:57.920 --> 0:07:59.640 Yea, when the Soviet Union fell. Part it is true 0:07:59.680 --> 0:08:01.600 we did send people in to like knock on the 0:08:01.640 --> 0:08:04.280 doors of some of these security services and heads of 0:08:04.320 --> 0:08:06.440 state in these new countries and just say, okay, with 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:08.680 the CIA guy, we're here, let's talk what your plan, 0:08:08.840 --> 0:08:10.440 what do you want to do, How can we help 0:08:10.640 --> 0:08:12.480 what kind of diplomatic connection do you want to have 0:08:12.520 --> 0:08:13.440 the United States. 0:08:13.680 --> 0:08:16.760 One thing CIA can do, really but we can do 0:08:16.880 --> 0:08:19.040 it is if we look at a guy who's like 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:22.000 maybe the new head of the Syrian government, we can say, look, 0:08:22.200 --> 0:08:25.560 we can put your message on the desk of the 0:08:25.560 --> 0:08:28.600 President of the United States within twelve OZ. No one 0:08:28.600 --> 0:08:31.360 else can really do that, and oftentimes they don't want 0:08:31.360 --> 0:08:33.680 to say in public what they're really thinking. 0:08:34.040 --> 0:08:36.560 If I wanted to take over Syria, I think what 0:08:36.600 --> 0:08:38.560 I would do is just to talk about how awesome 0:08:38.559 --> 0:08:40.640 Trump is. I think that would be the smartest thing 0:08:40.880 --> 0:08:43.160 for a rebel leader to do, just to be like, 0:08:43.400 --> 0:08:44.800 that guy's awesome. 0:08:45.360 --> 0:08:48.520 Like the Aid family was in power for fifty four years. 0:08:48.600 --> 0:08:52.000 Like what I'm looking for, That's what I want exactly. 0:08:52.080 --> 0:08:56.920 The rebel group should be ordering golden sneakers and coins, coins, 0:08:56.920 --> 0:09:00.320 their Bible coins, the Bibles with the consenters to them. 0:09:00.400 --> 0:09:02.040 All right, we're going to get right back into that, 0:09:02.120 --> 0:09:14.679 but first let's hear this. All right, I really want 0:09:14.679 --> 0:09:17.600 an update on Havana syndrome because I know that there's 0:09:17.679 --> 0:09:20.280 some news. I don't actually understand what the news is. 0:09:20.679 --> 0:09:22.840 First off, remind us what Havana syndrome is. 0:09:23.080 --> 0:09:24.880 Well, you know, we did two episodes. We did one 0:09:24.920 --> 0:09:27.200 episode with John Lee Anderson from the New Yorker, and 0:09:27.240 --> 0:09:29.080 we did one with Mark Palmer Oppos, who was a 0:09:29.080 --> 0:09:31.800 former colleague of ours at CI who was hit by 0:09:31.880 --> 0:09:35.960 what was called Havana syndrome they're now calling anomalous health incidents. 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:38.080 In other words, these look to be like beams of 0:09:38.120 --> 0:09:41.400 microwaves or acoustic ultrasound that were aimed at and shot 0:09:41.440 --> 0:09:44.800 at some of our diplomats and intelligence officials overseas, which 0:09:44.840 --> 0:09:49.360 created brain injuries. And the new news is just recently 0:09:49.440 --> 0:09:52.679 the Congress, the House Permanent Select Committee Intelligence put out 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:55.760 an unclassified report last week that said that increasingly looks 0:09:55.840 --> 0:09:59.079 likely that a foreign adversary is behind these cases that 0:09:59.120 --> 0:10:01.880 we call Havana syndro and that the CIA, which had 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:04.560 earlier written a report that they made public that said 0:10:04.679 --> 0:10:07.439 they did not think there was an adversary, probably the 0:10:07.520 --> 0:10:11.080 Russians behind this. The new Congression report says that the 0:10:11.080 --> 0:10:15.320 CIA report lacked analytic integrity. Senior staff at the NSC 0:10:15.360 --> 0:10:17.040 are now saying to some of these people who are 0:10:17.080 --> 0:10:19.439 involved with this that the CIA was wrong. You were right. 0:10:19.520 --> 0:10:21.760 It is a state actor. It looks like there is 0:10:21.840 --> 0:10:24.679 new information that suggests that someone is behind it, and 0:10:24.720 --> 0:10:28.240 that the CIA was not only incompetent but exhibited willful 0:10:28.240 --> 0:10:30.600 malfeasans in trying not to take this as serious as 0:10:30.600 --> 0:10:31.080 they should have. 0:10:31.480 --> 0:10:32.840 Why would the CIA do that? 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:37.680 Yeah, so our analysts, certainly since WMD in Iraq, had 0:10:37.720 --> 0:10:43.000 been ultra conservative and they're unwilling to make any analytical leaps. 0:10:43.000 --> 0:10:45.080 And I think there are a lot of great people there, 0:10:45.120 --> 0:10:46.720 some of the smartest people I've ever met. 0:10:46.760 --> 0:10:48.719 And of course there's a fear here that if you're 0:10:48.760 --> 0:10:50.640 an analyst and you're going to send a report to 0:10:50.679 --> 0:10:54.000 the White House that says there is a foreign actor 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:57.439 behind these attacks on American citizens, that's an act of war. 0:10:57.840 --> 0:10:59.480 If I'm going to send that to the White House 0:10:59.720 --> 0:11:01.040 and the White House is going to have to act 0:11:01.120 --> 0:11:03.360 upon that, you know, you're really getting involved in something 0:11:03.400 --> 0:11:06.240 that could create a war between two countries. Like Jerry said, 0:11:06.320 --> 0:11:08.720 there's going to be hesitancy in taking that seriously. So 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:11.800 inside CIA, my understanding is there's been a friction between 0:11:11.960 --> 0:11:14.800 the operators, the people who live overseas and often suffered 0:11:14.840 --> 0:11:17.120 to these kind of attacks, and the analysts who have 0:11:17.160 --> 0:11:19.120 to put together the report to tell the White House 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:21.480 that they believe it. So they may be patterns of 0:11:21.559 --> 0:11:23.760 information or something that they thought, but it wasn't enough 0:11:23.920 --> 0:11:26.480 to have strong evidence, and so they've hesitated to send 0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:29.280 it down. And the other piece is there's a concern 0:11:29.360 --> 0:11:32.400 here that if it looks like foreign diplomats and intelligence 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:35.720 officers are putting themselves in their families at risk, it's 0:11:35.720 --> 0:11:37.360 going to be hard to find people to go out 0:11:37.400 --> 0:11:41.120 and do those things for the CIA. And everybody who's 0:11:41.320 --> 0:11:44.160 been in war zones who's got brain injuries or other 0:11:44.200 --> 0:11:46.840 things are now going to come forward and expect very 0:11:47.080 --> 0:11:49.680 high end health support for this. So if you agree 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:51.880 that this has been happening, you're going to spend a 0:11:51.880 --> 0:11:54.160 ton of money on health things, and you're going to 0:11:54.400 --> 0:11:57.080 make it really hard for you to deploy people overseas, 0:11:57.520 --> 0:11:59.840 and you're telling the White House that it's an active war. 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:03.120 Those three things would make any analysts very nervous about 0:12:03.200 --> 0:12:04.080 jumping on board. 0:12:04.280 --> 0:12:06.320 And it's probably important to add that it's not a 0:12:06.360 --> 0:12:10.280 black and white issue. It's probably complicated like who got 0:12:10.400 --> 0:12:13.120 hit under what circumstances, and they look at it all 0:12:13.120 --> 0:12:15.640 sorts of things, and so I suspect there's some there's 0:12:15.640 --> 0:12:18.680 some bureaucratic where people just don't see eye to eye, 0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:20.920 and if you can't come up with a consensus, it's 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:24.000 hard to write something that is discreet and hard hitting 0:12:24.080 --> 0:12:25.760 and punching like this is it. 0:12:26.280 --> 0:12:31.560 I think it's a conspiracy. Definitely a conspiracy. 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:33.800 It is a conspiracy. And if it's the CI is 0:12:33.840 --> 0:12:35.920 actually holding back information as. 0:12:35.840 --> 0:12:38.960 A conspiracy, so it actually, hey we got one, Yeah there. 0:12:38.880 --> 0:12:39.240 All right. 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:45.040 Mission Implausible is produced by Adam Davidson, Jerry O'shay, John Cipher, 0:12:45.400 --> 0:12:49.800 and Jonathan Stern. The associate producer is Rachel Harner. Mission 0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:53.840 Implausible it's a production of Honorable Mention and Abominable Pictures 0:12:53.920 --> 0:13:05.200 for iHeart Podcasts.