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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside

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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring

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Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

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Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, let's switch

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Speaker 1: gears from the markets a little bit talk about pay

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Speaker 1: and the pay gaps, the gender pay gaps. We've heard

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Speaker 1: a lot about this issue. It's not getting better by

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Speaker 1: many standards, and maybe the pandemic made it even worse.

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Speaker 1: And it's certainly affecting all parts of the economy and

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Speaker 1: that includes uh NBA's as well. A Lissa Sangster joins us,

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Speaker 1: the CEO of Forte Foundation and Lista, thanks so much

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Speaker 1: for joining us here. So talk to us about the

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Speaker 1: NBA market. Um, I'm on the board of the NBA

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Speaker 1: School at Dukes, so I kind of know the day

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Speaker 1: to hear. But just share with us, what's the difference

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Speaker 1: the pay gender gap for NBA students when they get

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Speaker 1: out and then made even later in their career. Sure,

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Speaker 1: that's great. I I'd love to say that, you know,

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Speaker 1: we're seeing improvement across the board, but of course every

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Speaker 1: road has its thorn. UM And on the bright side,

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Speaker 1: we're seeing NBA gender pay gap overall shrinks from around

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Speaker 1: two years ago to about now so between men and women.

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying the GAP's gone, but it definitely has

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Speaker 1: um improved. And where is that improvement impetus coming from.

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Speaker 1: Is that on companies that these graduates are applying for.

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Speaker 1: Is it NBA schools themselves trying to help even things

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Speaker 1: out UM? You know, I think it's a combination of factors.

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Speaker 1: I think we're seeing more women in the NBA pipeline

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Speaker 1: pursuing these UM top careers, so I think you're seeing

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Speaker 1: them have access to more of those high paying salaries UM.

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Speaker 1: And I think you're seeing companies pay more attention to

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Speaker 1: it over the last few years about how they're advancing

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Speaker 1: UM employees internally and making sure that there is equitable

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Speaker 1: advance intimate across all of those top paying jobs. You know, Lissa,

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Speaker 1: one of the issue things that I've seen experienced personally

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Speaker 1: in my career having managed people UM, is that oftentimes,

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Speaker 1: you know NBA's will male and female will come in

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Speaker 1: at a similar or the exact same compensation package. UM,

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Speaker 1: But then things go arrive from there. Uh that's where

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Speaker 1: the women will lag in future years. And so when

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Speaker 1: you get to the partner or managing director level, there

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Speaker 1: is by far there's not a fair representation what are

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Speaker 1: the challenges there and what are some of the ways

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Speaker 1: to address those? Sure, So UM, I definitely think different

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Speaker 1: choices are made, and so I think there's kind of

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Speaker 1: a combination of uh decisions by the companies and also

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Speaker 1: by the individuals pursuing opportunities. And so I think we

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Speaker 1: see in our research that women end up several years

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Speaker 1: later having fewer direct reports, they have had fewer promotions

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Speaker 1: than their male counterparts. And so UM exactly what the

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Speaker 1: find all that UM is not specifically clear. Like I said,

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Speaker 1: it is a combination of things. But I also think

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Speaker 1: that women are often motivated by UM their impact on

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Speaker 1: the organization there UM, they're motivated by kind of the

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Speaker 1: value that they see that they're contributing. Their less motivated

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Speaker 1: by achieving that top salary and that being the indicator

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Speaker 1: of their success. And so I think that you see

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Speaker 1: women making maybe very different choices about which path they

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Speaker 1: take in their career, and often it might be walking

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Speaker 1: away from a top salary at a big company and

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Speaker 1: going to a smaller company where they feel like they

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Speaker 1: have bigger impact, maybe not as big as pay. If

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Speaker 1: we kind of step back and take a look at

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Speaker 1: the thirty thousand foot view, an NBA isn't cheap, right.

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Speaker 1: It costs you a lot of money to invest in

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Speaker 1: getting that additional education. Does it still pay off? It

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Speaker 1: definitely doesn't and your long term career earnings and in

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Speaker 1: the opportunities that are available to you. And so I

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Speaker 1: think that often what you see, especially in these full

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Speaker 1: time programs you mentioned Duke students are coming through this

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Speaker 1: program as career switchers, and they're looking to pivot in

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Speaker 1: their career and go into something that they would not

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Speaker 1: have had an access to normally without that NBA experience

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Speaker 1: or pathway. So it's opportunity to top jobs working for

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Speaker 1: very important companies and places that they can do amazing things.

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Speaker 1: And so those opportunities aren't always available to you without

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Speaker 1: that pivot. And I will say that one of the

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Speaker 1: things Sporting Foundation does is supply scholarships through our Business

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Speaker 1: School for women pursuing those MBAs so they are given

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Speaker 1: opportunities those top women candidate to pursue these nbas with

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Speaker 1: a substantial scholarship support. So listen, can you give us

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Speaker 1: maybe some examples or an example of an industry or

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Speaker 1: a company that's doing this well that it's narrowing that

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Speaker 1: gender pay pay gap UM. I think that, uh that

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Speaker 1: I well, I don't know that I have a specific

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Speaker 1: a company or industry. I would say those the companies

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Speaker 1: that are out there working UM at this you know,

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Speaker 1: a graduation you mentioned, they're all on parity, but as

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Speaker 1: they progress through their career. I think the monitoring of

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Speaker 1: that is probably something that's the bigger companies are doing

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Speaker 1: better because they are required to pay attention to these

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Speaker 1: things from external forces UM and and additionally, they are

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Speaker 1: very internally committed to diversity, equity and inclusion, and so

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Speaker 1: they have big operations inside that are actually monitoring this.

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Speaker 1: And honestly, those who are monitoring it are the ones

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Speaker 1: that are going to be seeing this success. That doesn't

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Speaker 1: mean that they can eliminate all of the other factors

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Speaker 1: in terms of decision making by the women, but they

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Speaker 1: are looking at how they advance UM diverse UM employees

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Speaker 1: through that pipeline into leadership. All right, lista, thank you

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Speaker 1: so much, we appreciate it. Listened Sankster, CEO Forte Foundation,

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Speaker 1: talk about the gender pay gap. That is an issue

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Speaker 1: clearly for a lot of businesses and a lot of people,

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Speaker 1: including MBA's Consumer confidence came out for the month of September.

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Speaker 1: Still a pretty good number, but below expectations. Let's check

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Speaker 1: in with Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators and Surveys

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Speaker 1: at the Conference Board to break down this data. So Lynn,

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Speaker 1: again a little bit less than what Wall Street was expecting,

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Speaker 1: but still a decent number. Help us put into context. Yes,

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, we had a decline in confidence

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Speaker 1: and it's actually sort of going on a downward trend

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Speaker 1: for the last three months. But a lot of this

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Speaker 1: is really doing really the result of the delta variant,

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Speaker 1: which has really sort of been this dark cloud over consumers.

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Speaker 1: It continues to dampen optimism, but there's still optimistic enough

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Speaker 1: that they feel that the recovery is going to continue

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Speaker 1: not only for the remainder this year, but into two

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Speaker 1: as well. I find the dig around the labor market

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Speaker 1: particularly interesting. We were just listening to FED chairman Jerome

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Speaker 1: Pale testifying on Capitol Hill in front of the Senate

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Speaker 1: about how participate is still really low. There's a lot

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Speaker 1: of jobs out there, but not necessarily enough people to

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Speaker 1: fill them. And I see that in the survey, fifty

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Speaker 1: six of consumers said that jobs are plentiful. So people

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Speaker 1: know there's jobs out there, Yes, they do. And I

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Speaker 1: think what we're seeing is that some of these labor

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Speaker 1: shortages are in sort of you know, gu collar type jobs. Um.

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Speaker 1: Some of that is due a to you know, inability

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Speaker 1: to find labor. There's still some fears about COVID, there's

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Speaker 1: still some childcare issues which are preventing women in particular

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Speaker 1: from getting back into the labor force. So there are

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Speaker 1: some challenges um that we are still facing, and a

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Speaker 1: lot of those are delta related. So I think as

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Speaker 1: we begin to sort of hopefully see the variant retreat

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Speaker 1: a bit, I think we're seeing at least some indications

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Speaker 1: maybe that you know, the levels are starting to come down,

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Speaker 1: that will continue to recover, and that you know, the

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Speaker 1: employment growth will be a little bit more robust. And

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Speaker 1: the Expectations Index, which is based on consumers term outlook

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Speaker 1: for income, business and labor market conditions that fell to

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Speaker 1: eighty six point six from eight. Is that concerning to you.

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Speaker 1: I think what we're just saying here is a very

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Speaker 1: cautious consumer, right, So we've seen a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a decline in their expectations for the economy over the

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Speaker 1: short term jobs in particular, also a little less so

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Speaker 1: in income. So that's good news because we expect to

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Speaker 1: consumers to continue to spend and support economic growth. I

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Speaker 1: think it's going to be very important to see what

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Speaker 1: happens over the next month or two because I think

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Speaker 1: we've shifted gears from a very optimistic consumer early in

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Speaker 1: the summer to a more cautious optimistic heading into the fall.

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Speaker 1: How do inflation expectations factor into this as well, because

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Speaker 1: to this point, consumers have been pretty tolerant of the

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Speaker 1: fact that prices have been going up because of higher

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Speaker 1: input costs. But at a certain level, I would imagine

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Speaker 1: that they're going to become less tolerant in that Fears

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Speaker 1: around inflation with effect behavior, right, you know, generally tend

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Speaker 1: to impact a consumer sub perceptions of earning power, and

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Speaker 1: we would see that sort of in the income expectations.

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Speaker 1: Are interest rate expectations actually fell, So that's good news.

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Speaker 1: It's still elevated, um, but it's it's fallen off a

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Speaker 1: little bit, and so far we really haven't seen it

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Speaker 1: have a major impact on spending. Supplemental unemployment benefits began

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Speaker 1: expiring for a lot of people in early September. How

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Speaker 1: did that factor into the data or the expectations data?

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Speaker 1: I think you know, it really factors into perhaps income expectations,

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Speaker 1: but we didn't take a hard hit there in terms

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Speaker 1: of employment expectations. That's pretty much following business conditions, right.

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Speaker 1: We need better business conditions and in order to generate

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Speaker 1: more employment. So I think you know, in both ways,

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Speaker 1: consumers are just a little bit cautious. They've probably hit

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Speaker 1: the pause button temporarily, but we don't think this is

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Speaker 1: sort of a continued downward trend. All right, Lynn, thank

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Speaker 1: you so which we appreciate that. Linn Franco, Director of

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Speaker 1: Economic Indicators and Surveys at the conference board on the

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Speaker 1: consumer confidence data out this morning for the month of September.

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Speaker 1: That was Secretary of the Treasuric Jenny Yelling, along with

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Speaker 1: FED Chairman j Palell testimony in front of members of Congress. Uh,

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Speaker 1: let's get a little bit of a recap there, we

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Speaker 1: can do it that the Bloomberg's Economics editor Michael McKee. Michael,

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Speaker 1: first of all, why are these two individuals testifying in

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Speaker 1: front of Congress? Why are they bringing their testimony? This

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Speaker 1: is a relic of the Cares Act. When the Care's

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Speaker 1: Act was passed, it required the Secretary of the Treasury

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Speaker 1: and the Fed Chairman to come up to Capitol Hill

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Speaker 1: quarterly and report on how things are going in terms

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Speaker 1: of spending out the money and the rescue programs that

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Speaker 1: they had in place. So it's a bit of a

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Speaker 1: relic now since most of the money has been distributed,

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Speaker 1: but it's still in place, so so they are there.

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Speaker 1: Obviously this is used in part to do some political

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Speaker 1: posturing on the behalf of these senators. A lot of

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Speaker 1: debate on the fiscal conversation that doesn't necessarily have bearing

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Speaker 1: for the Fed Chairman. But asked about the debt ceiling

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Speaker 1: was the Treasury secretary and she warned about it being

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Speaker 1: potentially disastrous if it isn't raised, saying that these are

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Speaker 1: bills that are already due for money that's already been spent.

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Speaker 1: Why does the market seem to not care about it? Then,

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Speaker 1: at this point, because we've been through this before and

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Speaker 1: a number of times over the past couple of decades,

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Speaker 1: and Congress has always extended the debt ceiling at the

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Speaker 1: very last minute. It's a political football. Both sides like

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Speaker 1: to attack the other side for being profligant. Uh, they

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Speaker 1: only want to spend money when they're in power, and

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Speaker 1: when they're not in power, they want to cut back

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Speaker 1: on spending because they think it makes them look better politically.

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Speaker 1: So that's what's going on. It's just, as you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: a political debate, and the market is fairly convinced that

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Speaker 1: they will settle this because they always have. And meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: on the sidelines, the commentators, as they usually do, say well, gee,

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Speaker 1: this time could be different. Well what could be a

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Speaker 1: little bit different this time is it's all kind of

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Speaker 1: tied in with the fiscal stimulus legislation, the spending plan

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Speaker 1: that Congress is also looking at, the taxation plan to

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Speaker 1: pay for it. Could this all get tied up? Is

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Speaker 1: this something that the market maybe should be more concerned about. Well,

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Speaker 1: if if we get to that point, the market will

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Speaker 1: suddenly become concerned. It is it is a little more

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Speaker 1: problematic this time. There's a little bit of a Rube

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Speaker 1: Goldberg effect of how they're going to have to do this.

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Speaker 1: Because the Democrats put forth a combined continuing Resolution to

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Speaker 1: keep the government funded and debt sailing last night, Republicans

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Speaker 1: wouldn't even let them have a vote on it. And

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Speaker 1: so now the Democrats have to decide are they going

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Speaker 1: to take out the Continuing Resolution and vote on that separately,

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Speaker 1: which they probably will, which still leaves the debt limit.

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Speaker 1: Republicans still say they will not allow the Democrats to

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Speaker 1: vote on extending it, and so the Democrats can put

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Speaker 1: it into the Continuing Resolution or rather continue into the

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Speaker 1: reconciliation bill that holds the Biden plan. But the problem

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Speaker 1: with that is then they need to pass a new

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Speaker 1: budget first with that as an instruction, and then they

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Speaker 1: need to go through a whole the whole day of

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Speaker 1: what they call vote rama, where anybody is allowed to

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Speaker 1: offer amendments. And so it will take time for that

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Speaker 1: to happen. And I think that's why Janet Yellen put

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Speaker 1: a date on at this time, because she's saying, basically, um, guys,

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Speaker 1: don't screw around. This is how much if you're gonna

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Speaker 1: do this, is how much time you have? Yeah, that's

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Speaker 1: all on the fiscal side, Mike on the monetary policy side,

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Speaker 1: and those who have the ability to decide monetary policy

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Speaker 1: center shared. Brown asked both Yelling and pal about diversity

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Speaker 1: on the FED Board of Governors and whether it's time

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Speaker 1: to have a black woman and especially in light of

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Speaker 1: the resignations of Rose and Grenham Kaplan yesterday in the

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Speaker 1: wake of the trading scandal, how could we be looking

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Speaker 1: at a different FED going forward. Well, I think you're

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Speaker 1: going to see in the search committees for both Dallas

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Speaker 1: and Boston a strong effort to find minorities, whether it's

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Speaker 1: a black or whether it's a woman, it could be Hispanic,

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Speaker 1: uh and Alis in particular would be a sort of

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Speaker 1: logical move. So I think you're going to see that,

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Speaker 1: and I think the FED Board will try to influence

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Speaker 1: that the FED has historically been a refuge of old

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Speaker 1: white males, and as was pointed out, there are very

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Speaker 1: few black economists at the board. And I think Congress

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Speaker 1: is going to continue to keep the pressure on and

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Speaker 1: we will see some changes in a historic day yesterday.

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Speaker 1: You know it's not every day you see two FED

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Speaker 1: presidents step down. Is this going to change the way

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Speaker 1: the FED man, you know, it puts people onto the

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Speaker 1: board or just or tracts talent. It could. I think

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Speaker 1: what you'll see is the FED put in place a

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Speaker 1: much more robust set of ethics requirements. Perhaps anybody coming

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Speaker 1: in would be required to put their holdings in a

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Speaker 1: blind trust something like that, uh, which you know you

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Speaker 1: can easily argue should have been done before. What they

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Speaker 1: don't want to do is completely keep anybody who's made

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Speaker 1: any money off the board, because yes, the board needs diversity,

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Speaker 1: but that also means they need some people with market

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Speaker 1: ex variants and so uh you know Rob kaplan K

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Speaker 1: from Goldvin Sachs, he was one of the strong market

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Speaker 1: voices and that's a loss for them at this point. Yea,

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Speaker 1: all right. Michael McKee, economics editor for Bloomberg TV and Radio,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for your thoughts. We appreciate that. Well,

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Speaker 1: just about twenty minutes ago, Kaylee and I were just

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Speaker 1: sitting here chatting, saying, boy, the supply chain, this is

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Speaker 1: a big issue, the challenges we're facing on a global scale.

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Speaker 1: And uh, I wonder to what extent that they're contributing

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Speaker 1: to some of this inflation we're seeing out there and

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Speaker 1: I said, we need to get smarter on what's going

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Speaker 1: on out there with the ships and the trains and

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Speaker 1: the trucks. And luckily we have Bloomberg Intelligence with us,

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Speaker 1: and they have the experts on all these industries. At

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Speaker 1: lea classical he's the senior transport logistics and shipping analysts,

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Speaker 1: one of the most popular analysts these days at Bloomberg Intelligence. Solely,

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at map go on my term and I

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Speaker 1: see a bunch of cargo ships anchored off the coast

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Speaker 1: of Los Angeles. And then even if they get their

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Speaker 1: cargo unloaded, then the trucks have to get the containers

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Speaker 1: and the railroads have to get the containers. Give us

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Speaker 1: an overview of how bad things are out there in

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Speaker 1: terms of global shipping, global logistics. UH, and how do

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Speaker 1: we get here? The supply chains are truly gummed up?

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Speaker 1: And you know the how we got to this point,

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Speaker 1: which the shocks to the system have really been unprecedented

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Speaker 1: and just one after the other. I mean, obviously economy

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Speaker 1: shut down with the pandemic, and then China recovered quicker

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Speaker 1: and earlier than the US, and that created a lot

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Speaker 1: of imbalances. UH. And the trans specific trade. So there

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Speaker 1: were ships coming to the southern California and other points

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Speaker 1: unloading um containers, but there were no empty containers to

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Speaker 1: bring back, and that created a capacity crunch on the water.

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Speaker 1: And also the container liner industry has a long history

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Speaker 1: of just being completely irrational players. They got a little

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Speaker 1: this a plan during this down cycle and they took

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Speaker 1: some ships out uh and they slowly brought them back,

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Speaker 1: so that created um also some some choke points uh.

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Speaker 1: And then it was like one black swan after the next.

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Speaker 1: You know, you had the the the ever given blocking

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Speaker 1: this to West Canal. Um. You had, um, you just

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Speaker 1: one thing after that, you had the rail industry embraced

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Speaker 1: something called precisions scattering railroading, which is really just six

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Speaker 1: stigma for the rails, and that impacted service, probably not

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Speaker 1: in the best way as well, because they were you know,

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Speaker 1: taking assets off of their network and then when demand

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Speaker 1: came up, you know, they were slow to bring back

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Speaker 1: those assets. UM. You know, you have you have huge

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Speaker 1: log jams in Chicago, which has always been a problem

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Speaker 1: UM and the rails have been doing what they can

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Speaker 1: uh to kind of alleviate those choke points and not

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Speaker 1: to just to to to ramble on too long, but

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Speaker 1: really it's all about available labor. Um. You know, every

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Speaker 1: transportation company is facing a labor shortage. Uh. You know

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Speaker 1: your listeners might remember last week when FedEx released their earnings,

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Speaker 1: they pointed out about four fifty million dollars of a headwind. Um.

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Speaker 1: That's a lot of coin. Uh. And that's just trying

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Speaker 1: to find enough people to deliver the packages. And when

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Speaker 1: they have holes in their system, you know, it creates

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Speaker 1: a much less efficient network for them. So Lee is

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Speaker 1: basically what you're telling us here that it is a

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Speaker 1: lot easier to create kinks in the supply chain than

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Speaker 1: it is to smooth them back out. Yeah, and and

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Speaker 1: and and that is a because we're more of you know,

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Speaker 1: it's for digital globalization. I mean, we're still a global economy.

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Speaker 1: The nikes that you might be wearing are being manufactured

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Speaker 1: in Vietnam or in China. And with China's zero tolerance

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Speaker 1: towards COVID outbreaks, you know you're seeing them shutting down

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Speaker 1: terminals at various ports, very busy ports, and that's creating

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Speaker 1: headwinds as well. And then you know when you have

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Speaker 1: on the U S side, Um, you know, you just

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Speaker 1: don't have enough people to to kind of face that backlog.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I read the other day on Bloomberg there

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Speaker 1: was something like seventy eight ships waiting outside of l

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Speaker 1: A Long Beach. These are unprecedented times, uh, and it's

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Speaker 1: gonna take a long time, you know, our call for

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Speaker 1: UM rates on at least on the liner side. You know,

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Speaker 1: we believe things will get a little better into the

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Speaker 1: Chinese New Year, but rates will remain a like at

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Speaker 1: these unsustainable levels probably through the first half of the

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Speaker 1: year and then kind of moderate uh into the second half. UM.

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Speaker 1: And then you have on on the roadside. For trucking

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Speaker 1: in North America, the spot rates are up something like

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Speaker 1: this year, contractual rates are up double digits. UM. They

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Speaker 1: have pricing power because they can't find the people to

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Speaker 1: drive the trucks to deliver the stuff. So when you

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Speaker 1: talk to these transportation companies, whether the big shipping companies

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Speaker 1: are the rails and trucks, is this a supply chain

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Speaker 1: problem that's going to go into next year? I mean

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Speaker 1: hard stop. Yeah, It's it's gonna be uh an impact.

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Speaker 1: I mean I think that it will moderate, you know, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, and but that's assuming a lot of things.

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Speaker 1: That's assuming not another black Swan event or another you know,

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Speaker 1: variant of the coronavirus which could shut down whether it's manufacturing,

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Speaker 1: um or or reports. And then you also have right now,

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Speaker 1: I mean you have another kind of crazy thing. We're

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Speaker 1: talking about China having not enough power, um so they

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Speaker 1: have to manage their economy and they might close the manufacturing.

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Speaker 1: So you know, if you're expecting you know, some furniture

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Speaker 1: from from China, you might have to wait another month. Alright, Lee,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for jumping on with us. Really appreciated.

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Speaker 1: This is a global issue. It as a one that's

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Speaker 1: been developing since the pandemic began, and it doesn't appear

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Speaker 1: to be uh easing anytime soon. Lee Classgow, Senior Transport

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Speaker 1: Logistics and Shipping Annals from Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins us

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Speaker 1: on the phone from Bloomberg's Princeton office. Uh and Kaylee,

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Speaker 1: this is something you know. I'm sure it's earnings coming

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Speaker 1: up here. Once again, we're going to have companies probably

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Speaker 1: blaming this using as an excuse perhaps for the weather. Right, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: but I think we're going to see some serious margin

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Speaker 1: pressures coming in, which is to be expected that profit

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Speaker 1: margins would contract. It's what a lot of analysts, strategists

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Speaker 1: are expecting. But when you talk about those higher input costs,

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Speaker 1: higher freight costs, higher labor costs, all that is cost

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Speaker 1: and is it transit where That's going to be the

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Speaker 1: big question. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast.

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Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts

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Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller. Put on false Sweeney. I'm

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney before the podcast. You can

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Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio