WEBVTT - TSMC's US Plant and the White House's Military AI Plan

0:00:01.639 --> 0:00:05.920
<v Speaker 1>From Mahard where Innovation, Money and Power Collie in Silicon

0:00:06.040 --> 0:00:10.480
<v Speaker 1>Vallet NBN. This is Bloomberg Technology with Caroline Hyde and

0:00:10.720 --> 0:00:11.800
<v Speaker 1>Ed Ludlow.

0:00:24.720 --> 0:00:27.400
<v Speaker 2>Live from New York and San Francisco. This is Bloomberg

0:00:27.440 --> 0:00:31.920
<v Speaker 2>Technology coming up. TSMC's US plant yields surpassed that of

0:00:31.960 --> 0:00:33.199
<v Speaker 2>similar factories in Taiwan.

0:00:33.479 --> 0:00:36.360
<v Speaker 3>What that means for the US chip ambitions.

0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:39.839
<v Speaker 4>And the Biden administration's planning a concrete strategy on the

0:00:39.960 --> 0:00:43.720
<v Speaker 4>US military's use of AI in warfare.

0:00:43.520 --> 0:00:47.680
<v Speaker 2>And Alphabet's autonomous driving unit. Weimo raises five point six

0:00:47.800 --> 0:00:50.920
<v Speaker 2>billion dollars in its largest ever funding round. But first

0:00:51.320 --> 0:00:54.080
<v Speaker 2>we check back on the public markets and new record

0:00:54.120 --> 0:00:56.920
<v Speaker 2>high for the NASTAK. The Broader Technology indexes up one

0:00:56.920 --> 0:00:59.520
<v Speaker 2>point three percent on the day. Consumer sentiment looks strong

0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:02.400
<v Speaker 2>on the day, inject some risk on across the board,

0:01:02.520 --> 0:01:05.720
<v Speaker 2>but most notably, we're still seeing the key magnificent seven

0:01:05.760 --> 0:01:08.800
<v Speaker 2>players managing to drive up to a new record high end.

0:01:08.840 --> 0:01:10.120
<v Speaker 3>What are you watching on the micro.

0:01:10.400 --> 0:01:11.800
<v Speaker 4>Well, I want to get to that breaking news from

0:01:11.800 --> 0:01:15.000
<v Speaker 4>this morning about WEIMO raising five point six billion dollars

0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:17.360
<v Speaker 4>its largest ever round. It was a Series C and

0:01:17.480 --> 0:01:21.120
<v Speaker 4>remember WAIMO is the autonomous driving unit of Alphabet, the

0:01:21.120 --> 0:01:24.320
<v Speaker 4>parent of Google. Alphabet's leading the round, And actually I'm

0:01:24.360 --> 0:01:26.880
<v Speaker 4>not drawing a direct causal link, but the stock did

0:01:26.920 --> 0:01:29.520
<v Speaker 4>push higher after the open when that news hit. Later

0:01:29.560 --> 0:01:31.480
<v Speaker 4>in the show will bring you the full details of

0:01:31.480 --> 0:01:33.679
<v Speaker 4>the RAM because some really interesting names in the world

0:01:33.720 --> 0:01:36.600
<v Speaker 4>of finance participating in it, and a lot of attention

0:01:36.760 --> 0:01:41.400
<v Speaker 4>on autonomous driving right now. Elsewhere, our top story is TSMC.

0:01:41.760 --> 0:01:45.000
<v Speaker 4>The basics of what Bloomberg's reporting is that its first

0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:49.680
<v Speaker 4>US chip plant in Arizona has achieved yields that surpassed

0:01:49.680 --> 0:01:53.320
<v Speaker 4>that of equivalent plants in its domestic home of Taiwan.

0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:57.080
<v Speaker 4>An important political story and important industry story. These are

0:01:57.080 --> 0:01:59.919
<v Speaker 4>the ADRs or US listed shares up almost three percent.

0:02:00.040 --> 0:02:01.760
<v Speaker 5>Har more details, Yeah, let's.

0:02:01.600 --> 0:02:03.720
<v Speaker 2>Get to it because, as you mentioned, just the nuance

0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:07.000
<v Speaker 2>there of the yields in the first plant in Arizona

0:02:07.440 --> 0:02:09.280
<v Speaker 2>that are surpassing similar.

0:02:08.960 --> 0:02:10.040
<v Speaker 3>Factories back home.

0:02:10.040 --> 0:02:12.680
<v Speaker 2>It's a significant breakthrough many feel for a US expansion

0:02:12.680 --> 0:02:16.600
<v Speaker 2>project initially played by delays by worker strife in King

0:02:16.720 --> 0:02:18.920
<v Speaker 2>joins US for some of the backstory on this because

0:02:18.960 --> 0:02:21.320
<v Speaker 2>it was hard to get to this position that they're

0:02:21.320 --> 0:02:21.840
<v Speaker 2>currently in.

0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:26.480
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, there was several reports there was labor issues. Can

0:02:26.520 --> 0:02:29.639
<v Speaker 6>they really do this outside of their home base? Is

0:02:29.720 --> 0:02:32.680
<v Speaker 6>this big bet that the US government is making on

0:02:33.760 --> 0:02:36.200
<v Speaker 6>a foreign company to bring them to the US where

0:02:36.200 --> 0:02:38.480
<v Speaker 6>they really haven't done very much in the past. Is

0:02:38.480 --> 0:02:42.880
<v Speaker 6>that all going to work out? And what TSMC and

0:02:42.919 --> 0:02:45.400
<v Speaker 6>our sour Thing is indicating is, well, yes, it is

0:02:45.440 --> 0:02:46.000
<v Speaker 6>working out.

0:02:46.360 --> 0:02:49.440
<v Speaker 4>I think it's worth explaining to the Bluemote Technology audience

0:02:49.520 --> 0:02:51.920
<v Speaker 4>what yield is and why it's important. I've had to

0:02:51.960 --> 0:02:54.160
<v Speaker 4>go at it and we'll bring the definition up on

0:02:54.200 --> 0:02:58.160
<v Speaker 4>the screen. But it's basically the volume or number of

0:02:58.320 --> 0:03:01.240
<v Speaker 4>usable chips in a batch, and that's super important when

0:03:01.240 --> 0:03:03.079
<v Speaker 4>you think about profit and efficiency.

0:03:03.200 --> 0:03:06.120
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, I mean the key phrase here is production yields.

0:03:06.200 --> 0:03:08.640
<v Speaker 6>That means basically, if you don't have production yields, you

0:03:08.680 --> 0:03:11.640
<v Speaker 6>shouldn't be in production. You are losing money on what

0:03:11.680 --> 0:03:15.000
<v Speaker 6>you're doing. How many of these things do you have

0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:17.200
<v Speaker 6>to throw away? Proper production backs because you have to

0:03:17.200 --> 0:03:19.480
<v Speaker 6>throw away a lot in the early stages. What they're

0:03:19.520 --> 0:03:21.840
<v Speaker 6>saying here is, hey, we've got through those early stages,

0:03:22.040 --> 0:03:27.000
<v Speaker 6>perhaps quicker than had been expected, and we're in a.

0:03:26.960 --> 0:03:31.160
<v Speaker 2>Good position, in a good position, What then, is the

0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:35.080
<v Speaker 2>ramifications for the US focus on bringing production to the

0:03:35.200 --> 0:03:38.760
<v Speaker 2>United States. Are we going to see yet more TSMC production?

0:03:38.920 --> 0:03:40.760
<v Speaker 2>Are we going to see yet more money coming from

0:03:40.800 --> 0:03:41.720
<v Speaker 2>the federal government.

0:03:42.680 --> 0:03:45.760
<v Speaker 6>I mean, there's no doubt that, given the landscape, that

0:03:46.200 --> 0:03:49.800
<v Speaker 6>that is what the US government would want from TSMC.

0:03:50.280 --> 0:03:53.080
<v Speaker 6>We've got Intel, as we know, having problems. We've got

0:03:53.120 --> 0:03:57.200
<v Speaker 6>Samsung as we know, having some issues with its foundary business.

0:03:57.240 --> 0:04:00.680
<v Speaker 6>So if we want this production in this country, TSMC

0:04:00.840 --> 0:04:02.480
<v Speaker 6>has to be the leading vehicle for that.

0:04:03.360 --> 0:04:06.240
<v Speaker 4>I wouldn't read too much into it. I would say

0:04:06.240 --> 0:04:09.200
<v Speaker 4>that the timing and manner by which we came to

0:04:09.320 --> 0:04:11.400
<v Speaker 4>this information is interesting.

0:04:11.520 --> 0:04:13.440
<v Speaker 5>Could you help me explain why.

0:04:14.200 --> 0:04:15.760
<v Speaker 6>The US needs a win?

0:04:16.040 --> 0:04:16.240
<v Speaker 7>Right?

0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:18.719
<v Speaker 6>The Biden administration needs a win.

0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:19.080
<v Speaker 4>Right.

0:04:19.080 --> 0:04:23.440
<v Speaker 6>There's a lot of negative newsflow around what's going on

0:04:23.560 --> 0:04:26.800
<v Speaker 6>with this initiative. At the same time, if you're TSMC,

0:04:27.120 --> 0:04:30.039
<v Speaker 6>you've been criticized for what you've done here, for not

0:04:30.160 --> 0:04:32.920
<v Speaker 6>going as big as possible, for coming in with an

0:04:32.960 --> 0:04:36.440
<v Speaker 6>older production technique. So perhaps you want to remind the

0:04:36.440 --> 0:04:38.240
<v Speaker 6>world that actually, no, we are in the lead.

0:04:38.279 --> 0:04:39.800
<v Speaker 8>We can do this. We know what we're doing.

0:04:40.680 --> 0:04:41.840
<v Speaker 5>On shoring is one part.

0:04:41.920 --> 0:04:44.000
<v Speaker 4>The other part is the export control which we can

0:04:44.040 --> 0:04:46.760
<v Speaker 4>talk about a little bit more bloombergsy and King thank

0:04:46.800 --> 0:04:48.679
<v Speaker 4>you very much. I want to bring an Annya Manuel

0:04:49.040 --> 0:04:51.760
<v Speaker 4>for more on this exact point. Executive director of the

0:04:51.800 --> 0:04:55.080
<v Speaker 4>Aspen Strategy Group and former diplomat. Let's just start with

0:04:55.120 --> 0:04:58.880
<v Speaker 4>the basics of this whole situation. TSMC the sort of

0:04:58.880 --> 0:05:03.280
<v Speaker 4>crown jaw of Taiwan technology industry having success early in

0:05:03.320 --> 0:05:06.240
<v Speaker 4>the US and the support of the US to do

0:05:06.360 --> 0:05:09.920
<v Speaker 4>it in the context of China. That's a difficult one.

0:05:10.880 --> 0:05:11.320
<v Speaker 9>That's right.

0:05:11.520 --> 0:05:14.279
<v Speaker 10>This is really very good news, and it means that

0:05:14.320 --> 0:05:18.839
<v Speaker 10>the Biden policy of both having some tough export controls

0:05:18.880 --> 0:05:24.560
<v Speaker 10>on certain very small critical technologies, but also these subsidies.

0:05:25.000 --> 0:05:29.960
<v Speaker 10>I think TSMC got six billion in subsidies, five billion loans.

0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:34.600
<v Speaker 10>Other companies are getting similar That project of pushing our

0:05:34.640 --> 0:05:37.040
<v Speaker 10>semiconductor industry forward is actually working.

0:05:37.839 --> 0:05:40.440
<v Speaker 2>We come to you because of your rich experience when

0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:42.839
<v Speaker 2>it comes to foreign policy, the work that you do

0:05:43.120 --> 0:05:45.400
<v Speaker 2>with the Aspens Strategy Group, the work that you've done

0:05:45.640 --> 0:05:49.040
<v Speaker 2>with the US government thus far. What do you grade

0:05:49.200 --> 0:05:54.080
<v Speaker 2>this focus of the United States on shoring of chip

0:05:54.120 --> 0:05:55.840
<v Speaker 2>supply from an A to a D.

0:05:55.920 --> 0:05:57.400
<v Speaker 3>Are they surpassing.

0:05:56.880 --> 0:06:00.200
<v Speaker 10>Expectations it's a good question I would give it about

0:06:01.240 --> 0:06:03.719
<v Speaker 10>So the important thing is to keep our eye on

0:06:03.760 --> 0:06:07.280
<v Speaker 10>the long term ball. There are certain key technologies where

0:06:07.320 --> 0:06:10.600
<v Speaker 10>the US and our friends and allies should stay in

0:06:10.640 --> 0:06:13.440
<v Speaker 10>the lead. We should be more advanced than the Chinese,

0:06:13.480 --> 0:06:15.920
<v Speaker 10>who are becoming more and more competitors in that space.

0:06:16.279 --> 0:06:19.080
<v Speaker 10>We do that in two ways, by slowing them down

0:06:19.400 --> 0:06:23.719
<v Speaker 10>that's the export controls, and by speeding ourselves up. My

0:06:23.880 --> 0:06:27.160
<v Speaker 10>personal view is that we've done pretty close to what

0:06:27.240 --> 0:06:29.320
<v Speaker 10>we can do to slow the Chinese down.

0:06:29.360 --> 0:06:33.320
<v Speaker 9>They're great entrepreneurs themselves.

0:06:33.400 --> 0:06:36.320
<v Speaker 10>We have some very tough export controls on the most

0:06:36.360 --> 0:06:40.159
<v Speaker 10>advanced chips and also on the tools that makes the chips.

0:06:40.839 --> 0:06:42.840
<v Speaker 9>Making those controls even tougher.

0:06:43.200 --> 0:06:47.039
<v Speaker 10>Nilatterly on the US side won't slow China down. It

0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:50.840
<v Speaker 10>just means our companies won't have the revenue that they

0:06:50.880 --> 0:06:53.839
<v Speaker 10>need to fund the research and development to keep ourselves

0:06:53.839 --> 0:06:54.240
<v Speaker 10>in the lead.

0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:58.080
<v Speaker 2>Let's just set the context of this week as well,

0:06:58.440 --> 0:07:01.520
<v Speaker 2>because there will some cups, shall we say, to the

0:07:01.640 --> 0:07:07.720
<v Speaker 2>US focus on containing semiconductor expertise, limiting it from going

0:07:07.760 --> 0:07:10.920
<v Speaker 2>into Chinese hands. In particular, we hear that TSMC has

0:07:10.960 --> 0:07:13.320
<v Speaker 2>had to admit that somehow it's chips are working its

0:07:13.360 --> 0:07:17.440
<v Speaker 2>way into Huawei's products, even though Huawei has been cut

0:07:17.440 --> 0:07:20.680
<v Speaker 2>off in theory since twenty twenty. News today that al

0:07:20.800 --> 0:07:23.520
<v Speaker 2>Chip Technology said it has no director and direct business

0:07:23.520 --> 0:07:26.080
<v Speaker 2>dealings with Huawei. Of course, many trying to work out

0:07:26.360 --> 0:07:30.400
<v Speaker 2>how and which client of TSMC's allowed the chips to

0:07:30.400 --> 0:07:34.400
<v Speaker 2>get into the hand of Huawei. But how effective can

0:07:34.440 --> 0:07:35.880
<v Speaker 2>these limitations really be on you?

0:07:36.960 --> 0:07:40.240
<v Speaker 10>That's a perfect question, and this example shows exactly how

0:07:40.280 --> 0:07:42.760
<v Speaker 10>difficult it is. You know, there are lots of well

0:07:42.800 --> 0:07:46.239
<v Speaker 10>meaning people in the US government in European governments trying

0:07:46.280 --> 0:07:48.400
<v Speaker 10>to get this right and trying to make the controls

0:07:48.480 --> 0:07:52.560
<v Speaker 10>narrowly focused and effective, very very hard to do.

0:07:53.040 --> 0:07:54.840
<v Speaker 9>I think they're doing quite a good job.

0:07:55.280 --> 0:07:59.200
<v Speaker 10>I worry, however, that, for example, you see some folks

0:07:59.320 --> 0:08:02.440
<v Speaker 10>in the might go into a Trump administration very tough

0:08:02.480 --> 0:08:04.520
<v Speaker 10>on China, China hawks, saying well, we're just going to

0:08:04.560 --> 0:08:07.720
<v Speaker 10>control more, We're going to put more companies on the

0:08:07.840 --> 0:08:11.240
<v Speaker 10>entity list. And as you're seeing with this TSMC example,

0:08:11.360 --> 0:08:14.600
<v Speaker 10>even when people are well meaning, it's just very very.

0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:17.440
<v Speaker 9>Difficult to do things with controls alone. You've got to run.

0:08:17.360 --> 0:08:19.840
<v Speaker 5>Faster, which is more powerful.

0:08:19.880 --> 0:08:23.920
<v Speaker 4>Then we've covered the export controls part of this story

0:08:24.040 --> 0:08:28.520
<v Speaker 4>deeply on this program, but they almost work in parallel.

0:08:28.600 --> 0:08:30.440
<v Speaker 5>You sort of can't have one way out the other.

0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:32.480
<v Speaker 4>If your end goal is to make your own nation

0:08:33.240 --> 0:08:36.040
<v Speaker 4>more competitive than any given field or domain.

0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:38.200
<v Speaker 9>That's absolutely right.

0:08:38.280 --> 0:08:41.439
<v Speaker 10>I'm firmly on the side of running faster is better.

0:08:41.640 --> 0:08:45.000
<v Speaker 10>We have an amazing innovation engine. I live out here

0:08:45.040 --> 0:08:48.080
<v Speaker 10>in California. You all report on it all the time.

0:08:48.440 --> 0:08:50.720
<v Speaker 10>We're doing great, so we need to make sure that

0:08:50.840 --> 0:08:54.040
<v Speaker 10>engine keeps running and keeps running fast. One of the

0:08:54.080 --> 0:08:57.160
<v Speaker 10>things that's underappreciated. Everyone always talks about the CHIPSAC the

0:08:57.200 --> 0:09:01.240
<v Speaker 10>subsidies to semiconductor fabs. What they don't talk about so

0:09:01.320 --> 0:09:03.000
<v Speaker 10>much is that there was supposed to be one hundred

0:09:03.000 --> 0:09:08.480
<v Speaker 10>and seventy billion dollars for going into basic science R.

0:09:08.440 --> 0:09:09.160
<v Speaker 9>And D funding.

0:09:09.480 --> 0:09:12.920
<v Speaker 10>This is really important. This creates all of the technologies

0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:16.600
<v Speaker 10>of the future, you know, okay, Serie, GPS, and so

0:09:16.720 --> 0:09:18.600
<v Speaker 10>those are the things we should be doubling down on.

0:09:19.559 --> 0:09:19.880
<v Speaker 5>ANYA.

0:09:19.960 --> 0:09:22.480
<v Speaker 4>At the same time, China is taking its own action.

0:09:22.800 --> 0:09:27.000
<v Speaker 4>How closely do you follow and assess their response to

0:09:27.080 --> 0:09:28.400
<v Speaker 4>the TSMC situation.

0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:34.280
<v Speaker 10>China is great. They're doing a lot of innovating. Their

0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:37.000
<v Speaker 10>companies are excellent. If you look at, for example, what

0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:40.760
<v Speaker 10>they're doing on artificial intelligence, they're large language models.

0:09:41.080 --> 0:09:42.640
<v Speaker 9>The biggest models.

0:09:42.240 --> 0:09:45.880
<v Speaker 10>In AI are depending who you ask, three six, nine

0:09:45.920 --> 0:09:49.000
<v Speaker 10>months behind because of our chip's controls. But on certain

0:09:49.120 --> 0:09:55.280
<v Speaker 10>other parts of artificial intelligence, computer visions, surveillance, drones, they're

0:09:55.280 --> 0:09:56.120
<v Speaker 10>really first rate.

0:09:56.160 --> 0:09:57.960
<v Speaker 9>So the Chinese are going to keep running fast.

0:09:58.240 --> 0:10:01.160
<v Speaker 10>And I would just say one thing this, this policy

0:10:01.400 --> 0:10:04.880
<v Speaker 10>needs to be nuanced. It's not like we are competing

0:10:04.920 --> 0:10:07.479
<v Speaker 10>with China on absolutely every technology.

0:10:07.760 --> 0:10:09.160
<v Speaker 9>There's certain areas where we.

0:10:09.080 --> 0:10:12.400
<v Speaker 10>Should still collaborate on healthcare, tech, on other things. It's

0:10:12.559 --> 0:10:16.400
<v Speaker 10>just those things that touch national security that are really

0:10:16.440 --> 0:10:19.600
<v Speaker 10>sensitive that can be dual use, where we need to be.

0:10:19.559 --> 0:10:21.360
<v Speaker 3>More careful push us forward.

0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:25.840
<v Speaker 2>Then, no matter what the administration ofter November fifth, sixth,

0:10:26.600 --> 0:10:32.360
<v Speaker 2>will there forever be this idea of tension and ultimately

0:10:32.800 --> 0:10:36.000
<v Speaker 2>opposing nations between China and US when it comes to AI.

0:10:36.400 --> 0:10:41.040
<v Speaker 2>Do you see any grounds for a more dubbsh approach?

0:10:42.480 --> 0:10:42.800
<v Speaker 9>Yeah?

0:10:43.200 --> 0:10:46.440
<v Speaker 10>I do think we are entering a phase where the

0:10:46.559 --> 0:10:50.920
<v Speaker 10>Chinese government, led by Si Jinping specifically, has said they

0:10:50.960 --> 0:10:55.960
<v Speaker 10>want to advance in certain technologies AI semiconductors, five G,

0:10:56.160 --> 0:10:59.880
<v Speaker 10>six G, certain others. They've set this out in the plan,

0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:04.520
<v Speaker 10>and they want to have a very dominant military, and

0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:08.400
<v Speaker 10>those two things are quite worrying. Understandably so to the US,

0:11:08.520 --> 0:11:11.720
<v Speaker 10>Europe are friends and allies, and so I do think

0:11:11.760 --> 0:11:15.040
<v Speaker 10>no matter who wins our election, this part of the

0:11:15.120 --> 0:11:17.480
<v Speaker 10>technology race, and I don't call it a war, I

0:11:17.520 --> 0:11:19.880
<v Speaker 10>call it a tech race, is going to continue. This

0:11:19.920 --> 0:11:23.239
<v Speaker 10>is a big, long term push that's going to continue.

0:11:23.360 --> 0:11:26.600
<v Speaker 10>That doesn't mean, however, that the US and China can't

0:11:26.640 --> 0:11:27.520
<v Speaker 10>do business.

0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:29.000
<v Speaker 9>Together and lots of other areas.

0:11:29.120 --> 0:11:32.520
<v Speaker 10>When I see companies in the consumer sector and agriculture

0:11:32.520 --> 0:11:34.920
<v Speaker 10>and other places still doing a lot of work with China,

0:11:35.000 --> 0:11:36.800
<v Speaker 10>it doesn't mean that there has to be a completely

0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:38.520
<v Speaker 10>coupling nuance.

0:11:38.600 --> 0:11:39.120
<v Speaker 3>We love it.

0:11:39.240 --> 0:11:42.600
<v Speaker 2>Anna Manuel, thank you, executive director of the Aspen Strategy Group.

0:11:43.200 --> 0:11:45.800
<v Speaker 3>Coming up, how the UK Prime.

0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:48.280
<v Speaker 2>Minister is looking to win over skeptics with they plan

0:11:48.400 --> 0:11:49.640
<v Speaker 2>to lead on.

0:11:49.640 --> 0:11:51.640
<v Speaker 3>Your guest at artificial intelligence.

0:11:51.640 --> 0:12:02.080
<v Speaker 2>That's next, there's a bring back technology.

0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:08.480
<v Speaker 4>After some early confusion around the UK Labor Party's commitment

0:12:08.559 --> 0:12:12.280
<v Speaker 4>to AI, Prime Minister Kiss starm is now positioning himself

0:12:12.559 --> 0:12:16.840
<v Speaker 4>as a champion for AI. His party's inaugural investment summit

0:12:16.920 --> 0:12:20.320
<v Speaker 4>last week. He even appeared alongside former Google CEO Eric

0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:24.400
<v Speaker 4>Schmidt and called AI an opportunity rather than something to

0:12:24.480 --> 0:12:26.880
<v Speaker 4>be scared of. Let's bring in Bloomberg's Matt Bergen, who's

0:12:26.920 --> 0:12:30.240
<v Speaker 4>out in London for us, and let's ask the simple question,

0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:33.240
<v Speaker 4>what is the UK's AI plan.

0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:36.880
<v Speaker 5>Well, we don't know it yet.

0:12:36.960 --> 0:12:40.199
<v Speaker 11>Wear our story today we talked to Secretary Cumpeter Kyle,

0:12:40.280 --> 0:12:44.600
<v Speaker 11>who's the Secretary for Science and Technology runs the department here.

0:12:44.920 --> 0:12:46.959
<v Speaker 11>He said, they're coming out with two false strategy and

0:12:47.040 --> 0:12:50.000
<v Speaker 11>one is this opportunities plan where they're going to be

0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:52.839
<v Speaker 11>using AI both for they talk about for improvements in

0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:55.439
<v Speaker 11>the public sector and for the private sector, and we've

0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:57.720
<v Speaker 11>seen a little bit of that in the public sector

0:12:57.800 --> 0:13:01.080
<v Speaker 11>so far. The second part is the prom a legislation

0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:04.040
<v Speaker 11>around AI, and what he told us very explicitly is

0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:05.720
<v Speaker 11>we are not going to go as far as the

0:13:05.720 --> 0:13:08.839
<v Speaker 11>EU have. They basically said the EU has gone it's

0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:12.120
<v Speaker 11>kind of overreached on AI, overregulated in a way. This

0:13:12.160 --> 0:13:15.280
<v Speaker 11>is an opportunity, one of the silver silver linings for Brexit,

0:13:15.320 --> 0:13:17.040
<v Speaker 11>if you will. For a Labor Party, which which stood

0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:21.559
<v Speaker 11>against that obviously, and they've given kind of two rough

0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:24.720
<v Speaker 11>commitments that AI bill. One is that the AI labs

0:13:25.080 --> 0:13:27.480
<v Speaker 11>are going to have to make their voluntary commitments they

0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:30.360
<v Speaker 11>made last year, made those into law, and he's going

0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:33.440
<v Speaker 11>to have a new agency to kind of monitor and

0:13:33.559 --> 0:13:38.240
<v Speaker 11>enforce the safety and criteria for these frontier rols like

0:13:38.280 --> 0:13:39.680
<v Speaker 11>open AI and Google.

0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:42.880
<v Speaker 2>Piece of Carl though the UK Science of Technology Secretory

0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:47.760
<v Speaker 2>rather upended everyone though earlier by having to it seems

0:13:47.960 --> 0:13:51.800
<v Speaker 2>nix a couple of very important investment areas in to

0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:57.040
<v Speaker 2>ultimately compute and I'm interested as to how he's tried

0:13:57.040 --> 0:14:00.000
<v Speaker 2>to navigate that a little bit more and educate us

0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:00.760
<v Speaker 2>why he did it.

0:14:01.960 --> 0:14:03.679
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, that's correct. I was kind of shocking to a

0:14:03.720 --> 0:14:07.040
<v Speaker 11>lot of investors here. And so that was a project

0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:09.000
<v Speaker 11>in Scotland, one of the countries very few kind of

0:14:09.240 --> 0:14:13.120
<v Speaker 11>these supercomputing projects. His explanation from that, and the Labor

0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:16.559
<v Speaker 11>Party's explanation is that the prior government promised this money

0:14:16.559 --> 0:14:19.760
<v Speaker 11>without allocating the funds. They are in a big fiscal

0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:22.760
<v Speaker 11>hole that they're trying to fill, among other things, discussing

0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:25.680
<v Speaker 11>the possibility of capital gains tax and some measures that

0:14:25.720 --> 0:14:28.800
<v Speaker 11>the tech community is very afraid of and doesn't want

0:14:28.840 --> 0:14:31.720
<v Speaker 11>to happen. I think they certain people we've talked to

0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:34.760
<v Speaker 11>around the Labor government who advised them admit that that

0:14:34.840 --> 0:14:38.560
<v Speaker 11>was sort of clumsy handling of that, But he told

0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:41.640
<v Speaker 11>us that they're reevaluating the computing budget for the country.

0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:45.680
<v Speaker 2>Mob you cover bench capital in the UK and Europe.

0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:47.680
<v Speaker 2>What is the VC community to say right now? What

0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:50.320
<v Speaker 2>is the amount of money going into AI and AI

0:14:50.440 --> 0:14:52.840
<v Speaker 2>innovation compared to the US and globally.

0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:57.960
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, I mean it's it's small, and there's a concern

0:14:58.080 --> 0:15:01.800
<v Speaker 11>that the UK will is is losing its footing to France,

0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:04.680
<v Speaker 11>which has invested quite a bit and the government has

0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:07.600
<v Speaker 11>been like working the prop up the industry. There's a

0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:11.280
<v Speaker 11>concern that the efforts not just of say pension funds

0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:14.720
<v Speaker 11>moving into VC, but but government research project. I think

0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:17.200
<v Speaker 11>the other side of that is, you know that they're

0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:19.880
<v Speaker 11>defenders of the government that are saying they're much more realistic.

0:15:20.120 --> 0:15:21.000
<v Speaker 8>We had Rishi.

0:15:20.840 --> 0:15:24.360
<v Speaker 11>Sunak, the Prime Minister, talking about the UK being a

0:15:24.440 --> 0:15:27.560
<v Speaker 11>scigned superpower, having Elon Musk on stage. Some of those

0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:29.800
<v Speaker 11>things that maybe weren't realistic for the UK to be.

0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:33.440
<v Speaker 4>Caroline and I have some experience in reporting on the

0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:36.200
<v Speaker 4>UK government and in the context of things like AI,

0:15:36.680 --> 0:15:40.720
<v Speaker 4>they often add in many buzzwords and political words like efficiency,

0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:44.160
<v Speaker 4>some of which we've mentioned in this conversation. But are

0:15:44.160 --> 0:15:47.480
<v Speaker 4>they actually acting with the private sector, not just the vcs,

0:15:47.520 --> 0:15:50.400
<v Speaker 4>but you cover the startups too, right, They need kind

0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:52.600
<v Speaker 4>of some relationship there to move forward.

0:15:54.400 --> 0:15:56.480
<v Speaker 11>Yeah, I think you know, the term we heard a

0:15:56.520 --> 0:15:59.080
<v Speaker 11>lot was it's a wait and see. I think right

0:15:59.120 --> 0:16:02.640
<v Speaker 11>now they're they're certainly having conversations with the startup industry.

0:16:02.520 --> 0:16:06.600
<v Speaker 11>They are the choice few sort of AI startups that

0:16:06.640 --> 0:16:09.040
<v Speaker 11>are promising that are involved in conversations. But I don't

0:16:09.080 --> 0:16:11.120
<v Speaker 11>think we've seen a lot of evidence of them either

0:16:11.160 --> 0:16:14.880
<v Speaker 11>being drawn in as government contracts or partners. But that's

0:16:14.920 --> 0:16:16.920
<v Speaker 11>something that at least in LIB service they're talking about

0:16:16.920 --> 0:16:17.160
<v Speaker 11>a lot.

0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:19.400
<v Speaker 3>We want to thank you, Mart Bergen.

0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:30.920
<v Speaker 4>It's time for talking tech and first start. Four astronauts

0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:34.560
<v Speaker 4>have made touchdown back on Earth. SpaceX's Crew eight capsule

0:16:34.760 --> 0:16:38.240
<v Speaker 4>landed earlier this morning after undocking from the International Space

0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:41.560
<v Speaker 4>Station on Wednesday. The crew arrived at the ISS on

0:16:41.680 --> 0:16:44.880
<v Speaker 4>March fifth, but could not return due to delays and

0:16:45.040 --> 0:16:49.480
<v Speaker 4>issues with Boeing Starliner two Boeing Starliner test pilots are

0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:53.720
<v Speaker 4>still stuck in space for the return set for February plus.

0:16:53.760 --> 0:16:54.960
<v Speaker 5>Elon Musk is said to have.

0:16:54.920 --> 0:16:59.760
<v Speaker 4>Had secret conversations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. That's according

0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:02.240
<v Speaker 4>to The Street Journal, who say the two have been

0:17:02.520 --> 0:17:06.399
<v Speaker 4>chatting regularly since twenty twenty two on a wide ranging

0:17:06.480 --> 0:17:10.920
<v Speaker 4>number of topics, including business and geopolitical issues. And Tesla

0:17:11.240 --> 0:17:14.800
<v Speaker 4>is drawing up an eclectic menu as it prepares to

0:17:14.880 --> 0:17:18.640
<v Speaker 4>open a fifties diner been charging station in the heart

0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:19.359
<v Speaker 4>of La where.

0:17:19.240 --> 0:17:21.320
<v Speaker 5>Ev drivers will be able to grab a bite.

0:17:21.320 --> 0:17:24.000
<v Speaker 4>Or catch a movie or topping off their battery assign

0:17:24.040 --> 0:17:28.960
<v Speaker 4>the industry's moving away from the utesarian utilitarian.

0:17:28.240 --> 0:17:30.840
<v Speaker 5>Gas station model. It's something I thought i'd never read.

0:17:30.880 --> 0:17:33.439
<v Speaker 3>Character I say it, that's quite cool.

0:17:33.840 --> 0:17:36.480
<v Speaker 2>Meanwhile, let's talk about the Biden administration saying that the

0:17:36.560 --> 0:17:39.760
<v Speaker 2>US must accelerate its adoption of AI for military and

0:17:39.800 --> 0:17:42.840
<v Speaker 2>intelligence use. In a new national security memorandum, the White

0:17:42.840 --> 0:17:46.440
<v Speaker 2>House outlined efforts to maintain an edge of arrivals and

0:17:46.520 --> 0:17:49.840
<v Speaker 2>increase safety. Courtney rosen imanly by government joins US now,

0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:52.920
<v Speaker 2>and you've really been focusing in on why the US

0:17:53.040 --> 0:17:55.480
<v Speaker 2>government is suddenly ramping up this narrative.

0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:56.719
<v Speaker 3>What's behind it? Corney.

0:17:58.440 --> 0:18:02.760
<v Speaker 12>Well, the primary partomle of this is that US adversaries

0:18:02.800 --> 0:18:06.520
<v Speaker 12>are already deploying AI in their militaries and their intelligence uses.

0:18:07.040 --> 0:18:10.840
<v Speaker 12>And that's what President Biden's National security advisor said yesterday.

0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:12.040
<v Speaker 9>He said that.

0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:15.600
<v Speaker 12>These things are advancing without American values, and so the

0:18:15.720 --> 0:18:18.479
<v Speaker 12>US has to keep up in order to keep up

0:18:18.480 --> 0:18:19.280
<v Speaker 12>with the adversaries.

0:18:20.280 --> 0:18:20.639
<v Speaker 5>Courney.

0:18:20.640 --> 0:18:22.440
<v Speaker 4>I want to get into kind of the specifics of

0:18:22.480 --> 0:18:24.399
<v Speaker 4>what a strategy might look like, but I think to

0:18:24.400 --> 0:18:27.359
<v Speaker 4>be fair to our audience on Bloomberg Technology around the world,

0:18:27.560 --> 0:18:29.440
<v Speaker 4>we're all kind of conscious that we have a US

0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:34.000
<v Speaker 4>presidential election in less than two weeks. Therefore, the existing

0:18:34.000 --> 0:18:37.119
<v Speaker 4>administration has a time limit on what it can or

0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:39.639
<v Speaker 4>can't do while in office. Just kind of take that

0:18:39.680 --> 0:18:40.919
<v Speaker 4>and explain that bit to us.

0:18:40.960 --> 0:18:41.280
<v Speaker 5>Please.

0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:47.120
<v Speaker 12>This memo that President Biden's team published yesterday lays out

0:18:47.160 --> 0:18:50.080
<v Speaker 12>a whole bunch of to do lists for military officials,

0:18:50.119 --> 0:18:53.240
<v Speaker 12>intelligence officials. The President's not going to be in power

0:18:53.400 --> 0:18:56.160
<v Speaker 12>long enough to see a lot of that through, so

0:18:56.280 --> 0:18:58.840
<v Speaker 12>we need to be thinking about what the next president

0:18:58.920 --> 0:19:02.560
<v Speaker 12>would do on these issues now. The Republican platform says

0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:06.240
<v Speaker 12>that President Trump would repeal a lot of the Biden

0:19:06.280 --> 0:19:09.520
<v Speaker 12>administration's consumer policies on AI. It doesn't really have a

0:19:09.560 --> 0:19:13.680
<v Speaker 12>take on military and intelligence uses. So that's one particular

0:19:13.760 --> 0:19:16.240
<v Speaker 12>vision forward. And then you've got Vice President Kamala Harris,

0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:19.520
<v Speaker 12>who has really been the face of AI for this

0:19:19.600 --> 0:19:22.760
<v Speaker 12>administration on the international stage and had a hand in

0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:26.360
<v Speaker 12>developing a lot of these policies. So two very different visions.

0:19:27.000 --> 0:19:29.960
<v Speaker 12>But regardless, it's not going to be President Biden who's

0:19:30.000 --> 0:19:31.119
<v Speaker 12>executing on these things.

0:19:32.080 --> 0:19:34.560
<v Speaker 4>Accorney, on this program, we talked to companies all the time,

0:19:34.640 --> 0:19:39.159
<v Speaker 4>like Palenteer and Anderill, private sector, publicly traded companies or

0:19:39.240 --> 0:19:42.199
<v Speaker 4>startups that tell us they're working more and more with

0:19:42.280 --> 0:19:44.960
<v Speaker 4>the government. What about from the government's side, is this

0:19:45.000 --> 0:19:48.600
<v Speaker 4>strategy they plan based on working with the private sector.

0:19:49.800 --> 0:19:50.119
<v Speaker 3>Yes.

0:19:50.720 --> 0:19:54.800
<v Speaker 12>Jake Sullivan, who's President Biden's National security advisor, yesterday made

0:19:54.800 --> 0:19:58.600
<v Speaker 12>a speech about this Artificial intelligence and national security strategy,

0:19:58.920 --> 0:20:01.520
<v Speaker 12>and he devoted a lot time to talking about how

0:20:01.560 --> 0:20:05.600
<v Speaker 12>AI innovation is largely happening in the private sector and

0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:08.399
<v Speaker 12>not in government. There was a lot of talk about

0:20:08.440 --> 0:20:10.679
<v Speaker 12>how the US government's going to have to work with

0:20:10.800 --> 0:20:14.320
<v Speaker 12>tech companies to make that happen in a way that

0:20:14.600 --> 0:20:17.360
<v Speaker 12>maybe they hadn't in different eras of technology.

0:20:17.720 --> 0:20:17.920
<v Speaker 5>Now.

0:20:17.960 --> 0:20:20.320
<v Speaker 12>I was sitting in a room here in Washington a

0:20:20.359 --> 0:20:24.280
<v Speaker 12>couple months ago during NATO when Oracle Saffricats said something

0:20:24.400 --> 0:20:27.800
<v Speaker 12>very similar that the tech is existing in the companies,

0:20:28.320 --> 0:20:31.240
<v Speaker 12>the government is behind, and the two have to get

0:20:31.280 --> 0:20:32.560
<v Speaker 12>along to make this work.

0:20:33.920 --> 0:20:38.040
<v Speaker 2>What's interesting is the ethics around it and any limitations

0:20:38.040 --> 0:20:41.320
<v Speaker 2>coming from the United Nations. There is this tension around

0:20:41.359 --> 0:20:45.920
<v Speaker 2>autonomous weapons and AI, and ultimately they're used in the battlefield.

0:20:45.920 --> 0:20:47.959
<v Speaker 2>How is that something that perhaps Jake Sullivan is speaking

0:20:47.960 --> 0:20:49.080
<v Speaker 2>to or trying to navigate.

0:20:50.960 --> 0:20:53.440
<v Speaker 12>They put together what they call or what I would

0:20:53.480 --> 0:20:56.399
<v Speaker 12>call a risk based approach. Right, the riskiest uses of

0:20:56.440 --> 0:21:00.000
<v Speaker 12>AI in military and intelligence settings, for example, use it

0:21:00.280 --> 0:21:02.600
<v Speaker 12>to make decisions about weapons targeting, like what you were

0:21:02.640 --> 0:21:06.359
<v Speaker 12>talking about, that should require the most safeguards and the

0:21:06.400 --> 0:21:13.000
<v Speaker 12>most thinking about ethics. Tasks that are smaller don't necessarily

0:21:13.040 --> 0:21:15.800
<v Speaker 12>need those kind of guardrails, according to the Biden administration.

0:21:15.920 --> 0:21:18.360
<v Speaker 12>So they're really thinking about this as tiers of risks,

0:21:18.880 --> 0:21:23.360
<v Speaker 12>which matches up what they've done with consumer AI as well.

0:21:23.480 --> 0:21:26.200
<v Speaker 2>And is it going to be the companies that we've

0:21:26.240 --> 0:21:28.600
<v Speaker 2>just referenced the ones that are already leading away. Are

0:21:28.600 --> 0:21:32.200
<v Speaker 2>they looking to spark even smaller companies to be integrated

0:21:32.240 --> 0:21:33.200
<v Speaker 2>within government.

0:21:34.800 --> 0:21:39.399
<v Speaker 12>Right now? The strategy. President Biden directed his procurement teams

0:21:39.440 --> 0:21:44.120
<v Speaker 12>at the Department of Defense to work on expanding the database.

0:21:44.160 --> 0:21:46.960
<v Speaker 12>I'll call them a vendors for this technology, and so

0:21:47.000 --> 0:21:49.960
<v Speaker 12>they're definitely trying to yes, of course work with the

0:21:50.000 --> 0:21:52.520
<v Speaker 12>big guys like what you've talked about, but also to

0:21:52.600 --> 0:21:55.919
<v Speaker 12>engage with the startup community and to make sure that

0:21:56.000 --> 0:22:00.720
<v Speaker 12>they have access to this opportunity to help the US

0:22:00.840 --> 0:22:03.800
<v Speaker 12>government and help the military right just as much as

0:22:03.840 --> 0:22:05.120
<v Speaker 12>the bigger players would.

0:22:05.920 --> 0:22:08.359
<v Speaker 4>Be their government reports at Courtney Rosen. Great to have you,

0:22:08.400 --> 0:22:09.560
<v Speaker 4>Thank you very much.

0:22:16.960 --> 0:22:19.280
<v Speaker 3>Welcome back to Bluemot Technology. I'm Caroline Hyde.

0:22:19.040 --> 0:22:21.760
<v Speaker 5>In New York and I med Loveo in San Francisco.

0:22:21.960 --> 0:22:23.080
<v Speaker 3>Quick check on these markets.

0:22:23.080 --> 0:22:26.680
<v Speaker 2>We're just tentatively near that record high that we saw

0:22:26.880 --> 0:22:29.080
<v Speaker 2>on an injury day basis. If we managed to hold

0:22:29.119 --> 0:22:31.720
<v Speaker 2>on to some of these gains, maybe we will crack

0:22:31.800 --> 0:22:34.080
<v Speaker 2>that new record for the NASDAC. We're currently up eight

0:22:34.080 --> 0:22:36.160
<v Speaker 2>ten percent over the course of the week. Look another

0:22:36.240 --> 0:22:38.800
<v Speaker 2>volatile one. We're still trying to digest what meet the

0:22:38.800 --> 0:22:40.720
<v Speaker 2>Federal Reserve is really going to do in terms of rates,

0:22:40.720 --> 0:22:43.199
<v Speaker 2>what that means for some of the main big winners

0:22:43.200 --> 0:22:46.199
<v Speaker 2>in technology. But what drags the naws back to a

0:22:46.240 --> 0:22:48.600
<v Speaker 2>new record high today in the same names that have

0:22:48.680 --> 0:22:50.720
<v Speaker 2>led the twenty four percent rally over the course of

0:22:50.720 --> 0:22:52.359
<v Speaker 2>the year. Of course, it's going to be the likes

0:22:52.359 --> 0:22:55.240
<v Speaker 2>of Nvidia on top. It's also going to be Tesla

0:22:55.320 --> 0:22:58.400
<v Speaker 2>finally seemingly breaking back into some of the Magnificent seven

0:22:58.440 --> 0:23:00.679
<v Speaker 2>on the week at least, but you've had number of

0:23:00.720 --> 0:23:03.520
<v Speaker 2>the key names outperforming. We're up nine tenths of percent

0:23:03.600 --> 0:23:04.919
<v Speaker 2>on the week, and a lot more of that on

0:23:04.960 --> 0:23:07.080
<v Speaker 2>the day, ed, but we've got a lot more when

0:23:07.080 --> 0:23:09.200
<v Speaker 2>we're digging into individual names, we want to shine, like

0:23:09.240 --> 0:23:12.560
<v Speaker 2>what's happening with Apple because we're down on the week,

0:23:12.680 --> 0:23:14.080
<v Speaker 2>but we've been up on the day.

0:23:14.400 --> 0:23:16.520
<v Speaker 3>But notably your drawing attention.

0:23:16.600 --> 0:23:19.040
<v Speaker 2>To one key analyst report, we want to get into

0:23:19.080 --> 0:23:20.840
<v Speaker 2>what Key Bank is saying and why they think some

0:23:20.960 --> 0:23:24.520
<v Speaker 2>of Apple's well. Analysts views on Apple are just too

0:23:24.520 --> 0:23:27.280
<v Speaker 2>optimistic investors embedding too much on Apple's growth.

0:23:27.520 --> 0:23:29.200
<v Speaker 3>But there's a lot going on for Apple right now.

0:23:29.800 --> 0:23:33.240
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, particularly with a lens on China, and also next week,

0:23:33.320 --> 0:23:36.760
<v Speaker 4>Apple plans a series of events which are expected to

0:23:36.800 --> 0:23:39.560
<v Speaker 4>include the rollout of new Mac models with the new

0:23:39.800 --> 0:23:44.400
<v Speaker 4>M four chip. Those chips are designed to support AI capabilities,

0:23:44.440 --> 0:23:48.800
<v Speaker 4>including Apple's own platform, Apple Intelligence here with more Bloomberg's

0:23:48.800 --> 0:23:53.240
<v Speaker 4>tech editor Dana Wolman, and always interesting how they communicate

0:23:53.280 --> 0:23:56.000
<v Speaker 4>this interesting that Apple has earnings Thursday and then a

0:23:56.040 --> 0:23:58.560
<v Speaker 4>series of events running up to it. But Mark German,

0:23:58.560 --> 0:24:01.200
<v Speaker 4>our chief Correspundence, do a lot of reporting about these

0:24:01.280 --> 0:24:03.960
<v Speaker 4>macs and the processes going into them.

0:24:04.640 --> 0:24:07.320
<v Speaker 13>Yes, absolutely, it looks like Apple is looking to create

0:24:07.680 --> 0:24:10.440
<v Speaker 13>a Meganews cycle for itself next week around its Mac

0:24:10.480 --> 0:24:14.000
<v Speaker 13>lineup ahead of the key holiday shopping season, and it

0:24:14.040 --> 0:24:15.800
<v Speaker 13>does seem that the M four chip is coming to

0:24:16.000 --> 0:24:19.480
<v Speaker 13>a series of Mac products that would include the iMac,

0:24:19.560 --> 0:24:23.000
<v Speaker 13>the MacBook Pro, and the Macmini, the Macmini being often

0:24:23.000 --> 0:24:26.240
<v Speaker 13>a forgotten child in Apple's lineup, but Mark has reported

0:24:26.640 --> 0:24:30.480
<v Speaker 13>that the Macmini specifically is due for a pretty drastic

0:24:30.560 --> 0:24:33.560
<v Speaker 13>design refresh coming up, one that would see the device

0:24:33.600 --> 0:24:35.600
<v Speaker 13>getting much much smaller than it already is.

0:24:36.320 --> 0:24:40.000
<v Speaker 2>Let's set this into the context of what's needed from

0:24:40.040 --> 0:24:43.560
<v Speaker 2>Apple later in the next week, because at the moment,

0:24:43.800 --> 0:24:46.040
<v Speaker 2>there is anticipation that Apple is going to be fueled

0:24:46.080 --> 0:24:48.879
<v Speaker 2>by artificial intelligence into weaving itself into all of its

0:24:48.920 --> 0:24:51.600
<v Speaker 2>products and it's going to manage to outperform. The stock

0:24:51.640 --> 0:24:53.919
<v Speaker 2>has already done pretty well, and Key Bank Capital markets

0:24:53.920 --> 0:24:55.960
<v Speaker 2>on it, and it's just saying we're baking in too much

0:24:56.040 --> 0:24:56.480
<v Speaker 2>right now.

0:24:57.119 --> 0:24:59.440
<v Speaker 13>Yes, with their point is that, and this really I

0:24:59.440 --> 0:25:02.919
<v Speaker 13>don't think is disparagement of Apple. Really, their point is

0:25:02.920 --> 0:25:06.200
<v Speaker 13>just that the underlying expectation is not realistic. That it's

0:25:06.240 --> 0:25:08.720
<v Speaker 13>assuming that Apple will grow across all of its product

0:25:08.760 --> 0:25:13.520
<v Speaker 13>lines at once, across all regions, and statistically that is

0:25:13.560 --> 0:25:14.600
<v Speaker 13>not impossible.

0:25:14.680 --> 0:25:15.040
<v Speaker 3>Exactly.

0:25:15.119 --> 0:25:17.200
<v Speaker 13>It has happened before, and we're talking about an event

0:25:17.240 --> 0:25:19.600
<v Speaker 13>that happens once every few years, if not once a

0:25:19.680 --> 0:25:20.760
<v Speaker 13>decade roughly.

0:25:22.160 --> 0:25:24.960
<v Speaker 4>I want to go back to what Cara alluded to earlier,

0:25:24.960 --> 0:25:29.680
<v Speaker 4>which is one cell side firm, KEYBMP, has basically cut

0:25:29.720 --> 0:25:32.720
<v Speaker 4>Apple to sell. But what they're talking about is something

0:25:32.760 --> 0:25:35.920
<v Speaker 4>really interesting happening in China. In China, you have iPhone

0:25:35.960 --> 0:25:40.040
<v Speaker 4>sixteen cells. The data is confusing, frankly about whether it's

0:25:40.080 --> 0:25:43.879
<v Speaker 4>doing well or not. But Apple intelligence isn't available in China.

0:25:43.920 --> 0:25:46.919
<v Speaker 4>And yet the evidence tells us the consumer might be

0:25:46.960 --> 0:25:50.080
<v Speaker 4>buying the handset because they believe in the future at will.

0:25:50.119 --> 0:25:52.439
<v Speaker 4>What do we know about what on earth is going on?

0:25:52.760 --> 0:25:54.640
<v Speaker 13>I would agree with you the sales data so far

0:25:54.680 --> 0:25:58.679
<v Speaker 13>has been inconsistent at best. Initially, it seemed that Apple

0:25:58.720 --> 0:26:02.720
<v Speaker 13>really had to cut prices or retailers had to cut

0:26:02.760 --> 0:26:06.520
<v Speaker 13>prices in China to boost sales this spring. And yet,

0:26:06.640 --> 0:26:09.720
<v Speaker 13>as you said, the early numbers for the iPhone sixteen

0:26:09.720 --> 0:26:12.480
<v Speaker 13>in China have been encouraging. And that's despite the fact

0:26:12.480 --> 0:26:16.000
<v Speaker 13>that sales of other otherwise luxury goods in China have

0:26:16.040 --> 0:26:20.520
<v Speaker 13>been soft around in the same period. So those are

0:26:21.000 --> 0:26:24.840
<v Speaker 13>good early indicators. I don't think the results next week

0:26:24.960 --> 0:26:28.000
<v Speaker 13>should shed much light on iPhone sixteen sales specifically.

0:26:28.040 --> 0:26:29.479
<v Speaker 3>It's just too soon to know.

0:26:31.600 --> 0:26:33.639
<v Speaker 13>But I do think there will be a lot of

0:26:33.640 --> 0:26:36.520
<v Speaker 13>scrutiny on China sales specifically next week when the company's

0:26:36.520 --> 0:26:37.440
<v Speaker 13>earnings come out.

0:26:37.600 --> 0:26:40.040
<v Speaker 2>We're expecting a five percent increase in revenue, up some

0:26:40.200 --> 0:26:43.560
<v Speaker 2>five percent to ninety four billion dollars for Apple. On

0:26:43.680 --> 0:26:45.879
<v Speaker 2>Halloween is when the numbers come out. Thirty first and

0:26:45.960 --> 0:26:49.040
<v Speaker 2>a woman, We thank you so much. Now here with

0:26:49.119 --> 0:26:54.440
<v Speaker 2>more Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments. Let's

0:26:54.480 --> 0:26:56.560
<v Speaker 2>just talk a little bit about Apple and as it

0:26:56.600 --> 0:26:59.920
<v Speaker 2>sits in the context of the Magnificent seven, just as

0:27:00.080 --> 0:27:01.840
<v Speaker 2>we look towards next week and we start to get

0:27:01.840 --> 0:27:04.200
<v Speaker 2>this bumper crop of earnings.

0:27:04.320 --> 0:27:09.160
<v Speaker 8>If you being optimistic, well we are feeling optimistic.

0:27:09.640 --> 0:27:13.320
<v Speaker 7>I mean, these are companies that are growing their earnings

0:27:13.359 --> 0:27:16.640
<v Speaker 7>and their revenues, and they have had a little bit

0:27:16.760 --> 0:27:21.000
<v Speaker 7>of a you know, I guess not slow down, but

0:27:22.040 --> 0:27:24.119
<v Speaker 7>they haven't been as strong as they were in the

0:27:24.119 --> 0:27:27.840
<v Speaker 7>first half of the year, and the fundamentals underlying them

0:27:28.200 --> 0:27:30.679
<v Speaker 7>in terms of driving their revenues and their earnings, are

0:27:30.720 --> 0:27:33.680
<v Speaker 7>still pretty strong. So we're hopeful that we can get

0:27:33.720 --> 0:27:35.400
<v Speaker 7>some good reports out of them.

0:27:35.760 --> 0:27:38.359
<v Speaker 4>So that is very interesting, Thomas, I will if you

0:27:38.440 --> 0:27:40.399
<v Speaker 4>allow me to do a bit of scene setting. I

0:27:40.400 --> 0:27:42.520
<v Speaker 4>think we agree that the mag seven were the big

0:27:42.600 --> 0:27:44.280
<v Speaker 4>driver of the S and P five hundred in the

0:27:44.320 --> 0:27:47.159
<v Speaker 4>first half of this year, but that's kind of changed

0:27:47.160 --> 0:27:49.720
<v Speaker 4>since July, right when that index, if you call it

0:27:49.760 --> 0:27:53.240
<v Speaker 4>an index, peaked, and if you take the basket of

0:27:53.280 --> 0:27:55.639
<v Speaker 4>the mag seven or the five that will report next,

0:27:55.960 --> 0:27:59.280
<v Speaker 4>I think the earnings grope expectations about nineteen percent sub

0:27:59.320 --> 0:28:02.159
<v Speaker 4>twenty percent, way beyond the S and P five hundred.

0:28:02.640 --> 0:28:05.840
<v Speaker 4>But it's also the slowest rate of EPs growth.

0:28:05.560 --> 0:28:06.760
<v Speaker 5>For like six quarters.

0:28:07.240 --> 0:28:09.800
<v Speaker 4>So how optimistic are you give us a sort of

0:28:09.840 --> 0:28:11.520
<v Speaker 4>relative frame of reference.

0:28:12.760 --> 0:28:15.360
<v Speaker 7>Well, I think that's a good point, and I think

0:28:15.359 --> 0:28:19.240
<v Speaker 7>that applies also to the market in general, is that

0:28:19.320 --> 0:28:21.520
<v Speaker 7>we did have a big run up to a new

0:28:21.640 --> 0:28:23.639
<v Speaker 7>high and we're back.

0:28:23.480 --> 0:28:26.720
<v Speaker 8>Above that high again.

0:28:26.800 --> 0:28:28.880
<v Speaker 7>I mean, we're off at a little bit now from

0:28:28.920 --> 0:28:31.919
<v Speaker 7>the all time high, but here we are. And the

0:28:31.960 --> 0:28:36.480
<v Speaker 7>seasonality of the market has really been brought forward in

0:28:36.600 --> 0:28:39.720
<v Speaker 7>every case, and so we were supposed to maybe have

0:28:39.800 --> 0:28:42.480
<v Speaker 7>some weakness here in September and October.

0:28:42.800 --> 0:28:45.640
<v Speaker 8>October's almost over, and we really haven't seen that.

0:28:46.000 --> 0:28:47.959
<v Speaker 7>And we're supposed to have a rally into the end

0:28:48.000 --> 0:28:52.280
<v Speaker 7>of the year from that weekend point, and we may

0:28:52.280 --> 0:28:55.760
<v Speaker 7>not get that. It may have been kind of pulled through.

0:28:55.880 --> 0:28:58.920
<v Speaker 7>And so the one reason to not be as optimistic

0:28:59.040 --> 0:29:02.200
<v Speaker 7>is regardless of what the results are, is that the

0:29:02.240 --> 0:29:04.600
<v Speaker 7>market says, you know, we just we need to take

0:29:04.600 --> 0:29:07.280
<v Speaker 7>a little breather here for these companies that are up

0:29:07.360 --> 0:29:10.959
<v Speaker 7>so strongly, I mean, twenty seven percent on the Russell

0:29:10.960 --> 0:29:12.240
<v Speaker 7>one thousand growth and the.

0:29:14.440 --> 0:29:18.960
<v Speaker 8>MGK you know, the large cap mega growth Thomas.

0:29:19.040 --> 0:29:22.280
<v Speaker 4>Which corners of the very large world of technology do

0:29:22.320 --> 0:29:23.000
<v Speaker 4>you like the most?

0:29:24.320 --> 0:29:28.080
<v Speaker 7>Well, we still do like the semiconductor companies that are

0:29:28.800 --> 0:29:33.040
<v Speaker 7>part of the AI movement. And so even though in

0:29:33.120 --> 0:29:39.640
<v Speaker 7>Nvidia is back up to its old high the outlook

0:29:39.760 --> 0:29:42.320
<v Speaker 7>for what they have and the demand for their product

0:29:42.760 --> 0:29:46.760
<v Speaker 7>uh and just the underlying driver of the need for

0:29:47.520 --> 0:29:51.480
<v Speaker 7>this large language models, et cetera, and the AI is

0:29:51.520 --> 0:29:54.600
<v Speaker 7>still in the earn early innings of it. So those

0:29:54.760 --> 0:29:57.560
<v Speaker 7>are companies that, even though you know, along with the

0:29:57.600 --> 0:30:00.480
<v Speaker 7>other companies in the index, are at highs, still have

0:30:00.560 --> 0:30:03.800
<v Speaker 7>the fundamentals to support it. And we also like those

0:30:03.840 --> 0:30:06.280
<v Speaker 7>industrials that would fit that method too.

0:30:06.720 --> 0:30:08.920
<v Speaker 2>What's interesting within Video is we have to wait all

0:30:08.920 --> 0:30:11.160
<v Speaker 2>the way to the twenty first November for their numbers,

0:30:11.160 --> 0:30:13.000
<v Speaker 2>but we're going to get a lot of signals coming

0:30:13.000 --> 0:30:16.840
<v Speaker 2>from the so called hyperscalers, whereas Alphabet, Amazon the spending.

0:30:16.480 --> 0:30:17.200
<v Speaker 3>Coming from Meta.

0:30:17.280 --> 0:30:20.719
<v Speaker 2>How much is still going to be ultimately plowed in

0:30:20.760 --> 0:30:23.880
<v Speaker 2>to in Video's chips. Do you think that this quarter

0:30:24.000 --> 0:30:27.040
<v Speaker 2>will still show that level of commitment and investment that

0:30:27.040 --> 0:30:28.520
<v Speaker 2>we've been used to in the previous quarters.

0:30:29.120 --> 0:30:31.680
<v Speaker 7>Well, it will be critical and everybody's going to be

0:30:31.680 --> 0:30:35.920
<v Speaker 7>watching those CAPEX numbers very carefully. I do think that

0:30:36.280 --> 0:30:38.800
<v Speaker 7>it will still be there. It's too early for them

0:30:38.840 --> 0:30:42.400
<v Speaker 7>to back off. And the reason that they would back

0:30:42.440 --> 0:30:45.600
<v Speaker 7>off on their capital spending is if there is a

0:30:45.680 --> 0:30:51.560
<v Speaker 7>slowdown in their revenues and their business and their costs

0:30:51.600 --> 0:30:55.320
<v Speaker 7>other costs go up, they would need to cut back

0:30:56.080 --> 0:30:59.040
<v Speaker 7>in order to keep the EPs growth going. But I

0:30:59.080 --> 0:31:02.440
<v Speaker 7>don't think that were at that point yet, or maybe

0:31:02.480 --> 0:31:04.360
<v Speaker 7>even in the next couple of quarters.

0:31:04.840 --> 0:31:06.840
<v Speaker 8>That could be a risk though for later on. In

0:31:06.880 --> 0:31:07.840
<v Speaker 8>twenty twenty.

0:31:07.520 --> 0:31:13.360
<v Speaker 4>Five, Thomas Martin, Senior portfolio manager at Global Investments, Happy Friday,

0:31:13.600 --> 0:31:14.080
<v Speaker 4>thank you for.

0:31:14.080 --> 0:31:16.560
<v Speaker 5>Joining us on the show. A piece of news.

0:31:16.600 --> 0:31:21.400
<v Speaker 4>Cryptocurrency exchange Kraken is set to name a new co CEO.

0:31:21.960 --> 0:31:24.280
<v Speaker 4>Argent Seti, who's the co founder of the venture firm

0:31:24.360 --> 0:31:28.920
<v Speaker 4>Tribe Capital, is set to lead Kraken alongside current CEO

0:31:29.160 --> 0:31:33.160
<v Speaker 4>Dave Ripley. Kracken's been expanding into new product areas and

0:31:33.280 --> 0:31:37.680
<v Speaker 4>considering a final funding round before a potential IPO offering

0:31:37.720 --> 0:31:40.320
<v Speaker 4>all of back Carrow, according to a Bloomberg source.

0:31:40.680 --> 0:31:42.800
<v Speaker 2>One to watch Meanwhile, let's stick with crypto for a moment,

0:31:42.840 --> 0:31:45.880
<v Speaker 2>because the companies are making a massive investment in the

0:31:45.960 --> 0:31:49.320
<v Speaker 2>upcoming election. Of course, all in an effort to ensure

0:31:49.360 --> 0:31:53.080
<v Speaker 2>politicians take the industry more seriously. Bloomgs Tim Stenowick has

0:31:53.120 --> 0:31:55.400
<v Speaker 2>more on the growing impact it's having on races across

0:31:55.400 --> 0:31:55.880
<v Speaker 2>the country.

0:31:56.520 --> 0:32:00.320
<v Speaker 1>Cryptos involved in the US election cycle like never before.

0:32:00.560 --> 0:32:04.520
<v Speaker 1>Campaign donations have poured in supporting politicians more friendly toward

0:32:04.560 --> 0:32:09.240
<v Speaker 1>the industry and opposing skeptics. Crypto backers have directed more

0:32:09.280 --> 0:32:12.880
<v Speaker 1>money to support their industry than any other interest group.

0:32:13.240 --> 0:32:16.520
<v Speaker 1>Leading the way is the super Pac Fairshake, which backs

0:32:16.560 --> 0:32:20.240
<v Speaker 1>Republicans and Democrats as long as they back crypto and

0:32:20.320 --> 0:32:23.840
<v Speaker 1>attacks members of both parties who don't. It's raised more

0:32:23.880 --> 0:32:27.760
<v Speaker 1>than one hundred and sixty million dollars at the company level.

0:32:27.960 --> 0:32:31.080
<v Speaker 1>Coinbase leads the way, followed by Ripple and then in

0:32:31.200 --> 0:32:34.760
<v Speaker 1>recent Horowitz. When added up, crypto donors have given more

0:32:34.800 --> 0:32:37.560
<v Speaker 1>than one hundred and ninety million dollars at the federal level.

0:32:38.040 --> 0:32:42.760
<v Speaker 1>Coinbases predicting political financing will translate to regulatory results, I

0:32:42.760 --> 0:32:43.360
<v Speaker 1>think there's.

0:32:43.160 --> 0:32:44.200
<v Speaker 8>No question about it.

0:32:44.240 --> 0:32:47.480
<v Speaker 13>We are going to see a pro crypto Congressromerge regardless

0:32:47.520 --> 0:32:51.720
<v Speaker 13>of the particular outcome in individual races, and of course

0:32:51.760 --> 0:32:53.240
<v Speaker 13>the outcome in the presidential race.

0:32:53.600 --> 0:32:56.480
<v Speaker 1>In the presidential race, former President Donald Trump said back

0:32:56.480 --> 0:32:59.880
<v Speaker 1>in twenty twenty one that bitcoin quote seemed like a scam.

0:33:00.160 --> 0:33:03.480
<v Speaker 1>Now he's become crypto's most high profile proponent.

0:33:04.080 --> 0:33:07.280
<v Speaker 14>This afternoon, I'm laying out my plan to ensure that

0:33:07.320 --> 0:33:10.760
<v Speaker 14>the United States will be the crypto capital of the

0:33:10.800 --> 0:33:13.920
<v Speaker 14>planet and the bitcoin superpower of the world.

0:33:14.040 --> 0:33:16.560
<v Speaker 15>Today, I take the oath of office. Joe Biden.

0:33:16.640 --> 0:33:20.360
<v Speaker 14>Kamala Harris's anti crypto crusade will be over.

0:33:20.400 --> 0:33:21.320
<v Speaker 5>In fun day.

0:33:21.160 --> 0:33:24.880
<v Speaker 2>One, I will fire Gary Gensler and appoint a new

0:33:25.640 --> 0:33:26.400
<v Speaker 2>SEC chair.

0:33:28.000 --> 0:33:31.080
<v Speaker 1>On the Democratic side, Vice President Kamala Harris strikes a

0:33:31.120 --> 0:33:35.720
<v Speaker 1>potentially softer stance on SEC chair Gary Gensler. Her campaign's

0:33:35.720 --> 0:33:39.960
<v Speaker 1>crypto plan, though, is considered more vague. In a policy statement,

0:33:40.000 --> 0:33:42.640
<v Speaker 1>which is part of the Opportunity Agenda for Black Men,

0:33:43.120 --> 0:33:46.520
<v Speaker 1>it reads quote, make sure owners of and investors in

0:33:46.600 --> 0:33:50.760
<v Speaker 1>digital assets benefit from a regulatory framework so that black

0:33:50.800 --> 0:33:53.960
<v Speaker 1>men and others who participate in this market are protected.

0:33:55.120 --> 0:33:58.200
<v Speaker 1>It does show that both candidates recognize the importance of

0:33:58.240 --> 0:34:02.280
<v Speaker 1>crypto as for crypto insiders, they believe the industry will

0:34:02.280 --> 0:34:03.360
<v Speaker 1>outlast the election.

0:34:04.000 --> 0:34:05.920
<v Speaker 15>These elections are going to swing back and forth for

0:34:05.960 --> 0:34:09.200
<v Speaker 15>a while, and so Crypto shouldn't be partisans.

0:34:09.360 --> 0:34:13.240
<v Speaker 16>It doesn't really matter too much who's president Crypto broadly

0:34:13.320 --> 0:34:17.120
<v Speaker 16>and bitcoint specifically. It is an unstoppable force, and an

0:34:17.160 --> 0:34:20.279
<v Speaker 16>unstoppable force meeting an immovable object, you know there's going

0:34:20.320 --> 0:34:21.560
<v Speaker 16>to be firework.

0:34:21.520 --> 0:34:23.799
<v Speaker 1>No matter how you slice it. Crypto certainly has a

0:34:23.840 --> 0:34:26.160
<v Speaker 1>bigger voice in the election cycle than ever before.

0:34:33.000 --> 0:34:33.879
<v Speaker 5>Okay, coming up.

0:34:33.960 --> 0:34:37.040
<v Speaker 4>Activate Consulting is out with its twenty twenty five tech

0:34:37.360 --> 0:34:40.800
<v Speaker 4>and media outlet report. The company's CEO, Michael Wolfe, is

0:34:40.880 --> 0:34:43.080
<v Speaker 4>joining us next stay with us will be right back.

0:34:43.560 --> 0:35:00.600
<v Speaker 4>This has been back technology.

0:34:56.600 --> 0:34:56.799
<v Speaker 2>Time.

0:34:56.840 --> 0:34:58.200
<v Speaker 3>Now for our VC roundup.

0:34:58.239 --> 0:35:00.880
<v Speaker 2>First up, Waimo has raised five six billion dollars for

0:35:00.960 --> 0:35:04.120
<v Speaker 2>investors for its largest ever funding round. The investment round

0:35:04.160 --> 0:35:06.399
<v Speaker 2>was led by Alphabet, but it included other big names,

0:35:06.440 --> 0:35:09.040
<v Speaker 2>as you can see at recent Horowitz Fidelity tro Price

0:35:09.080 --> 0:35:12.560
<v Speaker 2>for example. Plus China's Rewrite has raised over four hundred

0:35:12.560 --> 0:35:15.800
<v Speaker 2>and forty million dollars from its twice delayed IPO. According

0:35:15.840 --> 0:35:19.120
<v Speaker 2>to a filing, the self driving automotive company priced at

0:35:19.120 --> 0:35:21.279
<v Speaker 2>the bottom of what was a range of fifteen and

0:35:21.320 --> 0:35:23.640
<v Speaker 2>a half dollars to eighteen and a half range, but

0:35:23.840 --> 0:35:27.520
<v Speaker 2>it was upsized and had a concurrent private placement and

0:35:27.520 --> 0:35:30.279
<v Speaker 2>Agility Robotics is raising one hundred and fifty million dollars

0:35:30.280 --> 0:35:30.800
<v Speaker 2>from investors.

0:35:30.800 --> 0:35:32.480
<v Speaker 3>That's called called it in two sources.

0:35:32.719 --> 0:35:35.960
<v Speaker 2>The deal is being led by investment firm DCVC and

0:35:36.000 --> 0:35:38.160
<v Speaker 2>would value the maker of the humanoid robots that you

0:35:38.200 --> 0:35:40.920
<v Speaker 2>see at about a billion dollars. Company declined to comment

0:35:41.160 --> 0:35:42.480
<v Speaker 2>on the deal or its valuation.

0:35:42.640 --> 0:35:44.839
<v Speaker 5>Ed so much going on in that world.

0:35:44.920 --> 0:35:47.080
<v Speaker 4>Another one we're looking at over the next four years,

0:35:47.160 --> 0:35:50.240
<v Speaker 4>the tech, Internet and media sectors are expected to add

0:35:50.440 --> 0:35:53.640
<v Speaker 4>more than one point one trillion dollar of global growth.

0:35:53.840 --> 0:35:57.600
<v Speaker 4>That's according to Activate Consultings twenty twenty five Technology and

0:35:57.719 --> 0:36:00.840
<v Speaker 4>Media Outlook. Do I say that the company's Michael Wolf

0:36:00.880 --> 0:36:03.240
<v Speaker 4>is with us now and you know, reading the rapport,

0:36:03.440 --> 0:36:06.480
<v Speaker 4>it's not just the density of it or the global

0:36:06.600 --> 0:36:09.719
<v Speaker 4>nature of it, but actually the near term jump that

0:36:09.800 --> 0:36:12.920
<v Speaker 4>you see. It's the twenty twenty five outlook, But by

0:36:12.960 --> 0:36:15.440
<v Speaker 4>the time you get to twenty twenty eight, these are

0:36:15.440 --> 0:36:16.160
<v Speaker 4>big numbers.

0:36:16.680 --> 0:36:19.240
<v Speaker 5>What are the sort of top line conclusions You've drawn

0:36:20.640 --> 0:36:21.239
<v Speaker 5>a couple of things.

0:36:21.280 --> 0:36:24.520
<v Speaker 15>First of all, we're talking about roughly four hundred billion

0:36:24.600 --> 0:36:30.279
<v Speaker 15>dollars in incremental revenue to consumer the consumer technology media businesses,

0:36:30.800 --> 0:36:35.440
<v Speaker 15>and another seven hundred billion additional revenue dollars for B

0:36:35.520 --> 0:36:37.360
<v Speaker 15>to B. What you see is B to B is

0:36:37.400 --> 0:36:42.839
<v Speaker 15>going to grow much faster, three percentage points faster than

0:36:42.920 --> 0:36:46.000
<v Speaker 15>the consumer side of the business. And as we look

0:36:46.040 --> 0:36:49.360
<v Speaker 15>at this, we're very optimistic because there's still going to

0:36:49.360 --> 0:36:52.200
<v Speaker 15>be a lot more money coming into these businesses.

0:36:53.080 --> 0:36:55.480
<v Speaker 2>Can you spell out a little bit, Michael, of the

0:36:55.600 --> 0:36:58.480
<v Speaker 2>underlying data you use to get to these numbers.

0:36:58.520 --> 0:37:00.240
<v Speaker 3>How have you factored in this level of.

0:37:00.080 --> 0:37:06.640
<v Speaker 15>Both Well, we spend an entire year doing a tremendous

0:37:06.680 --> 0:37:10.840
<v Speaker 15>amount of both consumer and B to B research. We

0:37:11.200 --> 0:37:14.880
<v Speaker 15>take apart all of the plans for the major companies,

0:37:14.960 --> 0:37:18.440
<v Speaker 15>we look and see the underlying things that are driving growth,

0:37:18.719 --> 0:37:23.600
<v Speaker 15>and as a result, our forecasts reflect really a mosaic

0:37:23.640 --> 0:37:27.040
<v Speaker 15>of everything that we see going on and where we

0:37:27.120 --> 0:37:29.320
<v Speaker 15>believe that's going to translate into revenue growth.

0:37:30.680 --> 0:37:33.279
<v Speaker 4>The reason that Caroline's question is so good and so

0:37:33.320 --> 0:37:37.640
<v Speaker 4>important is that within the reports you attribute some quite

0:37:37.640 --> 0:37:40.880
<v Speaker 4>a lot of what's going to happen to generative AI

0:37:41.520 --> 0:37:44.000
<v Speaker 4>and on this program, whether it's an investor or a

0:37:44.040 --> 0:37:47.640
<v Speaker 4>company executive, or us as journalists, I still think we're

0:37:47.640 --> 0:37:49.839
<v Speaker 4>finding it really hard to see the money coming out

0:37:49.880 --> 0:37:52.640
<v Speaker 4>the other side of all of the investment into the

0:37:52.640 --> 0:37:58.040
<v Speaker 4>infrastructure behind AI. Take us there, Michael, generative AI leading

0:37:58.120 --> 0:37:59.040
<v Speaker 4>to sales growth.

0:38:00.520 --> 0:38:02.680
<v Speaker 15>We're we're not looking at it that way. We're not

0:38:02.719 --> 0:38:06.439
<v Speaker 15>looking at there's there are specific forecasts for the use

0:38:06.440 --> 0:38:09.359
<v Speaker 15>of generative AI, but most of what we focused on

0:38:09.360 --> 0:38:13.840
<v Speaker 15>the consumer time consumer side is increases in consumer time

0:38:14.239 --> 0:38:18.360
<v Speaker 15>with technology and media, and in the case of enterprise,

0:38:18.920 --> 0:38:21.480
<v Speaker 15>it is it is not money that those companies are

0:38:21.480 --> 0:38:25.000
<v Speaker 15>going to get from generative AI. It's actually the amount

0:38:25.040 --> 0:38:28.160
<v Speaker 15>of money that they're going to get from both pricing

0:38:28.400 --> 0:38:33.840
<v Speaker 15>for initial additional penetration uh in of their consumer apple,

0:38:34.280 --> 0:38:38.080
<v Speaker 15>of their B to B applications. So we're not we're

0:38:38.080 --> 0:38:44.359
<v Speaker 15>not specifically forecasting some number for what generative AI is

0:38:44.400 --> 0:38:44.840
<v Speaker 15>going to be.

0:38:44.960 --> 0:38:46.160
<v Speaker 8>We can grow, We get that.

0:38:46.600 --> 0:38:49.919
<v Speaker 2>Do you think though, that there is hype around how

0:38:50.000 --> 0:38:53.759
<v Speaker 2>much return on AI there will be? What's interesting I

0:38:53.760 --> 0:38:56.319
<v Speaker 2>was speaking with the IBM CEO earlier this week and

0:38:56.400 --> 0:38:59.600
<v Speaker 2>his key point was, at the moment, it's still really

0:38:59.640 --> 0:39:02.840
<v Speaker 2>cost Yes, Eventually we're going to get there, and CEOs

0:39:02.960 --> 0:39:05.840
<v Speaker 2>want to be bringing in general to AI to their companies,

0:39:06.120 --> 0:39:08.440
<v Speaker 2>but it's not easy enough for enterprise right now, and

0:39:08.520 --> 0:39:10.680
<v Speaker 2>it's really too expensive.

0:39:11.000 --> 0:39:12.520
<v Speaker 3>Is that something that you're feeling and hearing.

0:39:13.200 --> 0:39:16.120
<v Speaker 15>Yeah, and I think we're really this is an amazing

0:39:16.200 --> 0:39:19.640
<v Speaker 15>hype cycle and there's going to be a lot of

0:39:19.680 --> 0:39:24.600
<v Speaker 15>specific applications. It's unlikely that any of those applications, though,

0:39:25.000 --> 0:39:29.800
<v Speaker 15>are really going to provide huge amounts of additional revenue

0:39:29.880 --> 0:39:34.000
<v Speaker 15>to these companies. In many cases, it's going to be

0:39:34.239 --> 0:39:40.279
<v Speaker 15>increased functionality, it's going to be better tools. But we're

0:39:40.320 --> 0:39:43.759
<v Speaker 15>not stepping back and saying, let's predict what's happening in

0:39:43.800 --> 0:39:45.520
<v Speaker 15>the market based on GENERAI.

0:39:46.320 --> 0:39:47.960
<v Speaker 3>We keep looking at this from.

0:39:47.800 --> 0:39:51.120
<v Speaker 15>The perspective of what's going to happen in terms of

0:39:51.120 --> 0:39:54.640
<v Speaker 15>specific sales of what's existing out there, rather than bedding

0:39:54.920 --> 0:39:55.960
<v Speaker 15>what could be coming.

0:39:56.920 --> 0:39:57.680
<v Speaker 5>We're shot on time.

0:39:57.680 --> 0:40:00.160
<v Speaker 4>But one other Nasson area you're looking at is a

0:40:00.400 --> 0:40:04.840
<v Speaker 4>I was fortunate to spend some time with Oryan Meta's concept.

0:40:05.600 --> 0:40:08.000
<v Speaker 5>Tell us about your forecast there? I find it fascinating.

0:40:08.760 --> 0:40:14.680
<v Speaker 15>Well, we're forecasting fifty four million headset shipments by twenty

0:40:14.719 --> 0:40:20.120
<v Speaker 15>twenty eight and it sounds doesn't it's really underwhelming. It's ravi.

0:40:20.200 --> 0:40:24.120
<v Speaker 15>It's equivalent to four percent of smartphone sales. We believe

0:40:24.160 --> 0:40:26.320
<v Speaker 15>that they're going to be a great deal more because

0:40:26.360 --> 0:40:30.879
<v Speaker 15>we aren't counting on much more sophisticated headsets. The other

0:40:30.920 --> 0:40:33.360
<v Speaker 15>thing is it is a place where the AI is

0:40:33.480 --> 0:40:37.040
<v Speaker 15>already here, and so the AI is ahead of the

0:40:37.080 --> 0:40:39.240
<v Speaker 15>device versus the other way around.

0:40:40.480 --> 0:40:42.920
<v Speaker 2>It really is a fascinating read. We thank you for

0:40:42.920 --> 0:40:45.920
<v Speaker 2>bringing it. What is a year long set of number

0:40:45.920 --> 0:40:48.360
<v Speaker 2>crunching and data forecasting and activate consulting.

0:40:48.400 --> 0:40:50.520
<v Speaker 3>We appreciate it. CEO Michael Wolfe.

0:40:57.520 --> 0:40:59.480
<v Speaker 2>Let's go back to today's big story in the world

0:40:59.480 --> 0:41:02.600
<v Speaker 2>of chips, SMC's chip yields in the United States. What

0:41:02.680 --> 0:41:05.160
<v Speaker 2>it means for American chip manufacturing at LADS. Let's bring

0:41:05.160 --> 0:41:08.439
<v Speaker 2>in Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst man Need Singh the read

0:41:08.480 --> 0:41:12.080
<v Speaker 2>on the fact that TSMC is getting some superior yields

0:41:12.120 --> 0:41:13.160
<v Speaker 2>even to where.

0:41:12.960 --> 0:41:14.120
<v Speaker 3>They produce back at home.

0:41:14.400 --> 0:41:17.440
<v Speaker 2>What does this mean for the general demand cycle that

0:41:17.480 --> 0:41:17.960
<v Speaker 2>they're seeing.

0:41:18.600 --> 0:41:21.520
<v Speaker 14>I mean, look, in terms of the overall capacity, twenty

0:41:21.600 --> 0:41:24.319
<v Speaker 14>thousand wayfirst is not that big of a deal. But

0:41:24.400 --> 0:41:26.359
<v Speaker 14>when you look at the fact that they are doing

0:41:26.360 --> 0:41:29.240
<v Speaker 14>it at five nanometer, which is about you know, thirty

0:41:29.239 --> 0:41:33.600
<v Speaker 14>five percent of TSMC's overall revenue. And TSMC the fact

0:41:33.640 --> 0:41:35.799
<v Speaker 14>that they have the pricing power is because of the

0:41:35.880 --> 0:41:38.520
<v Speaker 14>leading notes. So this is one of the most popular

0:41:38.640 --> 0:41:42.520
<v Speaker 14>leading notes and you know, higher yields than TSMC's own fabs.

0:41:42.560 --> 0:41:45.000
<v Speaker 14>It's a pretty big deal. I mean, I can imagine,

0:41:45.080 --> 0:41:50.520
<v Speaker 14>you know, all the hyperscalers like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, going

0:41:50.560 --> 0:41:54.440
<v Speaker 14>to TSMC because they want their latest end product to

0:41:54.600 --> 0:41:57.040
<v Speaker 14>have a chip made on shore in the US. And

0:41:57.400 --> 0:42:00.320
<v Speaker 14>so I would expect the twenty thousand wayfirs will be

0:42:00.360 --> 0:42:04.840
<v Speaker 14>sold out on D one if you know, the market

0:42:04.960 --> 0:42:07.399
<v Speaker 14>is to be believed that, Yeah, they are ahead.

0:42:09.880 --> 0:42:12.360
<v Speaker 4>Real quick. Mandy, Oh, actually, I think we've got to

0:42:12.440 --> 0:42:14.080
<v Speaker 4>leave it. But I'm glad you came on and gave

0:42:14.160 --> 0:42:15.960
<v Speaker 4>us the b I take. I think the market might

0:42:16.040 --> 0:42:18.399
<v Speaker 4>price it in a little bit. We can argue about

0:42:18.400 --> 0:42:20.799
<v Speaker 4>that next week. All right, have a good weekend, Carrot.

0:42:21.080 --> 0:42:23.360
<v Speaker 3>Short, sweet to the point. But that does it for

0:42:23.400 --> 0:42:23.759
<v Speaker 3>this edition.

0:42:23.800 --> 0:42:26.080
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Technology an important one when you're thinking of chip

0:42:26.120 --> 0:42:27.280
<v Speaker 2>manufacturing here in the US.

0:42:28.400 --> 0:42:30.600
<v Speaker 4>It's been a huge week in the world of technology.

0:42:30.600 --> 0:42:34.480
<v Speaker 4>The Bloomberg Technology podcast is your friend. Recap there Wherever

0:42:34.520 --> 0:42:36.799
<v Speaker 4>you are in the world, have a fantastic weekend. Big

0:42:36.840 --> 0:42:39.120
<v Speaker 4>shout out to the team in New York City and

0:42:39.160 --> 0:42:42.080
<v Speaker 4>all the crew here in San Francisco. Reminded on Monday,

0:42:42.280 --> 0:42:45.120
<v Speaker 4>another big week starts. This is Bloomberg Technology