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Speaker 1: This is the Labor Podcast with your host JJ Zacher

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Speaker 1: je zacheron. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zachary sin in

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Speaker 1: this episode eleven oh one of the Late Round Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Football podcast. Thanks for tuning in. I don't care about

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Speaker 1: projections as much as others do in the fantasy football space.

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Speaker 1: I know that probably seems backwards because of my approach

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Speaker 1: to fantasy football being so analytics heavy, but it's true.

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Speaker 1: I think projections are often overrated. And the reason I

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Speaker 1: feel that way is because they don't capture range of

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Speaker 1: outcomes that well, generally speaking, and they don't capture draft strategy.

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Speaker 1: If you're in round eight of your fantasy draft, are

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Speaker 1: you looking for median outcomes or high end outcomes? Are

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Speaker 1: you looking at what's most likely to happen for a

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Speaker 1: player or what could happen if things break a certain way.

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Speaker 1: This isn't to say that you can't project for range

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Speaker 1: of outcomes. You can do a degree. And this isn't

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Speaker 1: me throwing shade to the people who build awesome projections.

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Speaker 1: They're doing great work and it's not easy work to do.

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Speaker 1: I'm just saying that I think people rely on projections

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Speaker 1: a little bit too much. In the fantasy football world.

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Speaker 1: The application is where I really disagree, but that certainly

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Speaker 1: doesn't make them worthless. I do projections every single year.

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Speaker 1: I don't maintain them throughout the summer and into the

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Speaker 1: season as well as I probably should, because that can

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Speaker 1: often just be like a full time job. But I

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Speaker 1: have them. I build them out, and I've been doing

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Speaker 1: that for years and years, and this year I got

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Speaker 1: some help with them from Late Round Zone Brandon Godola.

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Speaker 1: That was nice to get some relief with that process,

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Speaker 1: So props to Godula for helping me out. I've always said, though,

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Speaker 1: that building projections, it's not always about that end number,

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Speaker 1: that final fantasy point projection. For me, it's always been

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Speaker 1: about understanding the fantasy football landscape on a deeper level.

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Speaker 1: When you're sorting through target shairs, when you're sorting through

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Speaker 1: efficiency metrics, and when you're projecting team level production, you

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Speaker 1: start to see some things the you might not have

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Speaker 1: otherwise seen. And that's what this episode is about. Each year,

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna sit here and show you where late

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Speaker 1: rounds projections differ from the market. That's not how I operate.

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Speaker 1: You'll learn about my players to target and avoid throughout

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Speaker 1: the summer. Instead, I want to talk through some of

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Speaker 1: the more interesting insights that I thought about and discovered

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Speaker 1: while we built projections this season. So, without further ado,

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Speaker 1: let's dig in. I want to start today's episode by

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Speaker 1: talking about the Raiders, because really, is there anything more

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Speaker 1: thrilling than talking about an offense that has Jalen Naylor

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Speaker 1: and Trey Tucker as starting wide receivers. The Raiders have

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Speaker 1: a brand new coaching staff though, with Clint Kubiak in town,

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Speaker 1: and he's obviously going to influence what they do in

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Speaker 1: a major way. First off, Vegas ran very few plays

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Speaker 1: last year. That obviously had to do with the combination

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Speaker 1: of their style but also their efficiency. It was not

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Speaker 1: a good offense. They ran the fewest plays per game

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Speaker 1: last year, though, at fifty five point eight. Teams who

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Speaker 1: have run fewer than fifty eight plays per game since

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Speaker 1: twenty eleven have seen that number increased by over five

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Speaker 1: the following year on average, So just purely from a

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Speaker 1: regression perspective, we should see more plays from Vegas. Now

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Speaker 1: that being said, Clint Kubiak has now coordinated three NFL offenses,

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Speaker 1: the twenty twenty one Vikings, the twenty twenty four Saints

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Speaker 1: and the twenty twenty five Seahawks. At each stop, his

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Speaker 1: teams have had well below zero pass rate over expected

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Speaker 1: rates last year for Seattle was nearly minus seven percent.

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Speaker 1: As we know, they leaned heavily on the run. That's

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Speaker 1: led to slightly lower paces and slightly fewer plays per

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Speaker 1: game for Kubiak's offenses. So while I do expect Vegas

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Speaker 1: to improve on plays per game, I think we should

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Speaker 1: realize that Kubiak's offenses aren't like I don't know, Kellen Moors,

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Speaker 1: they can run slower. What I do think we're going

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Speaker 1: to see from his offense that was more efficiency. Over

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Speaker 1: his last two stops, we've seen his offenses improve in

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Speaker 1: yards per play year over year by about point two

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Speaker 1: and point four yards per play, and he's done this

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Speaker 1: through a heavier use of twelve per In twenty twenty four,

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Speaker 1: the Saints' year over year use in twelve personnel rose

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Speaker 1: by over six percentage points. For the Seahawks from twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four to twenty twenty five, theirs rose by almost

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Speaker 1: thirteen percentage points. And the way this team is structured,

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Speaker 1: that makes a lot of sense. They don't have super

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Speaker 1: strong wide receivers, as I talked about at the top,

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Speaker 1: but they have a good running back and elite tight

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Speaker 1: end and a great second tight end in Michael Mayer.

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Speaker 1: The Raiders are gonna want to pound the rock, but

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Speaker 1: then also have the versatility to throw out of those

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Speaker 1: heavier sets, which means Brock Bauers and Ashton Genty could

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Speaker 1: eat in this offense. But also I wouldn't be surprised

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Speaker 1: if Michael Mayer is involved a little bit more this

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Speaker 1: year too. The fantasy friendliness of this offense is really

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Speaker 1: going to come down to efficiency, but Kubiak has at

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Speaker 1: least shown us that he can bring that to the table,

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Speaker 1: and I think there's a chance that we see a

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Speaker 1: really big season from brock Bauers, which is why he's

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Speaker 1: my tight end one right now. Now, stemming from that

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Speaker 1: discussion about Kubiak, let's talk about the wide receiver who

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Speaker 1: dominated in his offense last year, which is Jackson Smith

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Speaker 1: and Jigba. I'm not worried that Jasn is just gonna

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Speaker 1: bust this year. He's an elite player who can quite

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Speaker 1: literally do anything on an NFL field. What I'm a

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Speaker 1: little bit concerned about is what the projections are picking

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Speaker 1: up on and that's regression. JSN is not like the

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Speaker 1: wide receiver eight or anything, but he's just not as

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Speaker 1: clear cut in that top spot as you might think, like,

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Speaker 1: for example, the projection is really like Aman Ross Saint

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Speaker 1: Brown right now, he's honestly close to the same tier

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Speaker 1: as JASN according to those projections. Maybe that's more of

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Speaker 1: just a Saint Brown thing being undervalued, which I think

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Speaker 1: is part of this, but also there is some natural

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Speaker 1: regression that we should expect with JASN. First off, the

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Speaker 1: dude had a thirty five percent target share last year,

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Speaker 1: almost thirty six percent. Since twenty eleven, players who have

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Speaker 1: been over a thirty percent target chair have seen an

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Speaker 1: average and median drop of four percentage points in target

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Speaker 1: share the following season. That's what the minimum eight games

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Speaker 1: played in both seasons. That only gets higher as that

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Speaker 1: threshold increases. And obviously JSN was a lot higher than

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Speaker 1: a thirty percent target chair. So with JSN he's set

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Speaker 1: up well to see a crazy target chair still, but

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Speaker 1: it's no guarantee that he's gonna maintain his one hundred

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Speaker 1: and sixty three targets total year over year. But even

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Speaker 1: if he does, Let's assume that Seattle's more pass heavy

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Speaker 1: with their new coordinator. There's no more Kenneth Walker, and

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Speaker 1: maybe the defense just doesn't play as well. We typically

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Speaker 1: do see that with defense is year over year, Smith

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Speaker 1: and Jigba, regardless of volume, was unreal efficient last year.

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Speaker 1: We have a sample of eighty five wide outs with

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Speaker 1: fifty plus targets and back to back seasons who hit

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Speaker 1: ten or more yards per target in that first season.

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Speaker 1: On average, we see them dropping yards per target by

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Speaker 1: two full yards year over year. JSN became one of

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Speaker 1: the best deep threats in the league last year. That

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Speaker 1: helped him out tremendously. I'm not expecting him to regress

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Speaker 1: to his first two season average year. However, he had

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Speaker 1: eleven yards per target last season. Among that same group

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Speaker 1: of players who had ten or more yards per target

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Speaker 1: in one year, roughly eighty percent of them ended up

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Speaker 1: declining year over year in yards per target. And the

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Speaker 1: players who typically do improve they're not crazy target hawks,

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Speaker 1: they're more deep threats. I still have JSN ranked as

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Speaker 1: my wide receiver three, but I do think that Puuka

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Speaker 1: and Akua and Jamar Chase they project better than JSM

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Speaker 1: this year just because there's a little bit more room

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Speaker 1: for air, and don't sleep Phenomena Saint Brown. The projections

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Speaker 1: really like him. They think that he should be living

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Speaker 1: sort of closer to that JSN tier I just don't

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Speaker 1: think that we can use Minnesota's twenty twenty five season

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Speaker 1: as the baseline for what we're gonna see here in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. Kevin O'Connell's been their head coach now

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Speaker 1: for four years. During his first three seasons, the Vikings

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Speaker 1: average almost sixty four plays per game, over five and

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Speaker 1: a half yards per play, almost two and a half

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Speaker 1: touchdowns per game, and an average pass right to overexpected

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Speaker 1: of nearly plus three percent. Last year, their plays per

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Speaker 1: game fell by twelve percent, their yards per play by

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Speaker 1: eleven percent, their touchdowns per game by eighteen percent, and

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Speaker 1: their pass rate to overexpected went to minus one point two,

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Speaker 1: which was four whole percentage points lower than their previous

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Speaker 1: three year average. And obviously this stem from poor quarterback play. Now,

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Speaker 1: we don't know exactly what Kyler Murray is going to

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Speaker 1: look like in this offense, but it's pretty easy to

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Speaker 1: say that it's gonna look better than whatever the heck

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Speaker 1: it was last year. Minnesota was fourth worse than EPA

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Speaker 1: per dropback last year, when they ranked ninth, sixteenth, and

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Speaker 1: twelfth to three years prior, and that was across more

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Speaker 1: than just one quarterback. Kyler Murray hasn't given us a

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Speaker 1: ton in recent years, but I'm very hopeful that we're

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Speaker 1: going to see a much better Minnesota offense this season

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Speaker 1: here in twenty twenty six. Last year just stands out

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Speaker 1: as such an outlier from what we've seen historically under

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Speaker 1: Kevin O'Connell. People were burned by Terry McLaurin last year,

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Speaker 1: but I'm here to say that McLaurin was still very

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Speaker 1: good at hyde receiver. He himself, when healthy, when active

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Speaker 1: at thirty years of age, was actually pretty awesome. Now.

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Speaker 1: I talked about this on the show this offseason. Already

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Speaker 1: I had him as a by candidate for when Now

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Speaker 1: Teams in Dynasty, But McLaurin last season had his second

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Speaker 1: best yards per team pass attempt rate of his entire career.

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Speaker 1: He had his absolute best yards per rout run rate

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Speaker 1: at two point twenty two. This was at thirty years

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Speaker 1: old and an offense that had a carousela quarterback. McLaurin

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Speaker 1: has still only hit a twenty five percent target share

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Speaker 1: once in his career, but I actually think there's a

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Speaker 1: chance that we see that again. In twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: All they did was at Antonio Williams of the wide

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Speaker 1: receiver room. Jayden Daniels is healthy and David Blau's offensive coordinator. Now.

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Speaker 1: I remember being at Radio Road this year. We interviewed

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Speaker 1: Josh Johnson on the Late Round Show, but he was

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Speaker 1: very excited about Blow and Washington. We don't know exactly

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Speaker 1: what this is going to look like, but from the

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Speaker 1: interviews that I've watched, I like what I've heard. Law

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Speaker 1: has talked about the importance of play action, which continues

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Speaker 1: to be a cheat code, disguising his looks, getting creative

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Speaker 1: to confuse defenses and to use motion, and they quite

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Speaker 1: literally talked about Terry McLaurin being the centerpiece of this offense.

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Speaker 1: In February, Blouse said, quote, this thing's going to be

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Speaker 1: built around how do we get Terry ten targets per game?

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Speaker 1: Considering McLaurin looked the part last year and looking at

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Speaker 1: the competition right now on that team, Jayden Daniels is healthy.

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Speaker 1: I'm in and projections reflect that too. Arizona's a tough

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Speaker 1: team to wrap my head around right now. On one hand,

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Speaker 1: we saw Jacoby Brissett not only allow Michael Wilson to

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Speaker 1: be fantasy relevant last year and Trey McBride to just

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Speaker 1: put up insane numbers, but he himself was relevant up

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Speaker 1: until the end of the season. The backfield was a

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Speaker 1: mess with injuries, but it was somewhat of a surprise

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Speaker 1: offense for fantasy purposes. Now, in twenty twenty six, we're

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Speaker 1: looking at a new coaching staff. Jacoby Brissette is probably

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Speaker 1: under center. Then they added Jeremiah Love in the draft.

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Speaker 1: Projecting this team is really not easy. Part of the

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Speaker 1: problem is that last year the Cardinals were first in

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Speaker 1: the league in pass attempts. Typically, given their pass attempt number,

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Speaker 1: we've seen teams regress by a few pass attempts per

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Speaker 1: game year over year, the majority of them do. If

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Speaker 1: that happens, we're looking at the potential for fifty fewer

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Speaker 1: pass attempts year over year for Arizona. Meanwhile, there's this

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Speaker 1: really weird Michael Wilson problem to solve. Last year, Jacoby

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Speaker 1: Brissett took over in week six. From Week one to

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Speaker 1: week five, Michael Wilson averaged three point eight PPR points

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Speaker 1: per game. That was along the same lines as Josh

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Speaker 1: Reynolds and andre Yosibash. Brissette then takes over, and from

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Speaker 1: Week six onward, Wilson was the wide receiver eleven in

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Speaker 1: Fantasy football with sixteen point four PPR points per game.

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Speaker 1: We would take that all day long this year, but

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Speaker 1: we have to remember that Marvin Harrison Junior wasn't totally

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Speaker 1: active and healthy over that time period. Post Week five,

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Speaker 1: man Harrison Junior ran a route on eighty percent or

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Speaker 1: more of Arizona's dropbacks in just three games Week seven

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Speaker 1: nine to ten. He either missed every other game or

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Speaker 1: he was well below that seventy percent mark, which is

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Speaker 1: not his norm at all. In those three games, Michael

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Speaker 1: Wilson scored nine point one, seven point four and seven

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Speaker 1: point zero PPR points. That was on a thirteen point

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Speaker 1: eight percent target share per game rate. To put that

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Speaker 1: another way, all of Michael Wilson's serious production with Jacoby

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Speaker 1: Brissett last year came without Marvin Harrison Junior being one

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Speaker 1: hundred percent. And say what you want about Marvin Harrison Junior,

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Speaker 1: he clearly has not lived up to the hype, but

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Speaker 1: I think if you were to tell someone that last

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Speaker 1: year he and Michael Wilson had almost identical yards per

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Speaker 1: rout run rates one point five eight versus one point

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Speaker 1: five to nine, they'd probably be surprised. Wilson commanded a

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Speaker 1: target on twenty percent of his routes run Marvin Harrison

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Speaker 1: Junior nineteen percent. And remember there was a large sample

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Speaker 1: here where Michael Wilson was playing without Marvin Harrison Junior.

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Speaker 1: That's why it's hard for me to feel really bullish

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Speaker 1: about Michael Wilson in twenty twenty six, and I, along

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Speaker 1: with the projections, we're more bullish on Marvin Harrison Junior

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Speaker 1: between the two wide receivers. I pretty actively faded Marvin

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Speaker 1: Harrison Junior last year. But at his current cost and

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Speaker 1: what projections are saying, he's not a terrible pick because

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Speaker 1: this is a brand new offense, a brand new system.

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Speaker 1: I'd much rather bet on the high end prospect than

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Speaker 1: the guy who only produced when an injury occurred to

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Speaker 1: another player last year, and who did if we're just

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Speaker 1: being honest with ourselves, he benefited from a team with

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Speaker 1: a lot of passing volume. Honestly, guys, last year's Michael

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Speaker 1: Wilson season reminds me a lot of twenty twenty four's

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Speaker 1: Jerry Judy season. In twenty twenty four, Judy averaged fourteen

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Speaker 1: PPR points per game. He had a stretch of games

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Speaker 1: where he was dominating in fantasy football at Jamis Winston,

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Speaker 1: but his peripherals were never spectacular. His yards per rout

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Speaker 1: run rate that year was one point seventy two. Who

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Speaker 1: it's not like he got significantly better as a player,

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Speaker 1: and Judy also benefited from injuries to his teammates just

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Speaker 1: like Michael Wilson, and Judy ended up running the most

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Speaker 1: routes in the NFL that year because, like the Cardinals,

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Speaker 1: the Browns led the league in pass attempts, and like Judy,

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Speaker 1: Michael Wilson was fourth in the NFL last year and

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Speaker 1: routes run according to PFF. Now, look, the Cardinals are

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Speaker 1: probably gonna still be pass heavy just given how bad

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Speaker 1: that defense projects. But with Wilson's peripherals really not being

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Speaker 1: spectacular with his splits alongside a healthy Marvin Harrison junior

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Speaker 1: last year, looking if he, I can see why the

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Speaker 1: projections are just not that into him. Now, I mentioned

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Speaker 1: the Brock Bauers stuff earlier, and I think Trey McBride

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Speaker 1: he should still be the tight end two. But it's

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Speaker 1: funny to say this after how his career started. He's

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Speaker 1: probably not gonna score eleven touchdowns again. Now. It's true

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Speaker 1: he didn't like harshly outperform as expected touchdowns last year,

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Speaker 1: but the Cardinals also set him up well, and I'm

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Speaker 1: not convinced that that's easily repeatable, especially because there's a

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Speaker 1: very real chance that Jacoby Brissett is not starting for

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Speaker 1: that team the entire season. We could get Carson Beck.

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Speaker 1: In fact, I think we will get some Carson Beck.

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Speaker 1: And then through all of this, there's also a lot

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Speaker 1: of ambiguity with Jeremiah Love. That's why this whole thing

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Speaker 1: is just really difficult to project. I didn't even mention

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Speaker 1: the change in staff and how that comes into play.

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Speaker 1: I do think we see a more effective run game,

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Speaker 1: and we might see a team that wants to really

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Speaker 1: run the football. They wouldn't have taken Love third overall

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Speaker 1: if that wasn't the case. But there's also a classic

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Speaker 1: case of not getting carried away with just duplicating what

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Speaker 1: that team did during the back half of the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five season. There's a lot of change in Arizona,

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Speaker 1: and we can't forget about certain injuries that occurred last

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Speaker 1: year that enabled some of these things to be unlocked.

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Speaker 1: So the TLDR is that I'm afraid of this offense,

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Speaker 1: and I'm definitely afraid of taking Michael Wilson at ADP

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Speaker 1: given these projections. I've talked up both Jaden Reid and

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Speaker 1: Josh Downs over the last month, but I want to

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Speaker 1: call them out here because projections show that there's at

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Speaker 1: least some opportunity. Projections are based on median outcomes, and

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Speaker 1: the median outcome for Josh Downs and Jaden Reid is

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Speaker 1: that they continue their slot roles. They don't grow that

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Speaker 1: much from them, and that's it. They're not super relevant

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Speaker 1: in fantasy football. But even with that being the assumption,

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Speaker 1: Read and Downs are comfortably top fifty wide receivers right

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Speaker 1: now in the projections front. And meanwhile, according to Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Pro's average draft position data, Read is wide receiver thirty nine,

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Speaker 1: Downs wide receiver forty five, which means where they're getting

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Speaker 1: drafted right now really isn't that far off from just

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Speaker 1: their median projection. But we know there are non injury

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Speaker 1: outs for both wide receivers, which doesn't exist for many

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Speaker 1: wide receivers in that range in general. For Reed, we're

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Speaker 1: assuming that Matthew Golden takes a step he's really able

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Speaker 1: to play consistently in two wide receiver sets for Josh downs.

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Speaker 1: The only guy in his way in those groupings is

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Speaker 1: Nick Westbrook a Keena. There was a fantastic article done

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Speaker 1: by Fantasy Points Ryan Heath last week on play caller tendencies,

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Speaker 1: and specifically he looked at play callers who often call

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Speaker 1: plays with two or fewer wide receivers on the field

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Speaker 1: at once. We've known for a while that heavier personnel

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Speaker 1: or fewer wide receivers on the field can bring forth

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Speaker 1: higher target shairs and better fantasy production for the wide

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Speaker 1: receivers who are actually on the field for those plays

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Speaker 1: in those situations, because instead of competing with other wideouts

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Speaker 1: for targets, they're competing with tight ends or running backs.

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Speaker 1: In that article, which everyone should read, hit my Twitter

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Speaker 1: account if you want to see it. I quote tweeted it.

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Speaker 1: But in it Ryan talks about Christian Watson, who to

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Speaker 1: me has the most established role right now in that

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Speaker 1: Green Bay offense at wide receiver, but he noted that

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Speaker 1: the Packers when Tucker Craft was healthy last year, they

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Speaker 1: ran a lot more plays with only two wide receivers

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Speaker 1: on the field. That's gonna help Watson, there's no doubt,

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Speaker 1: but it's also gonna help whoever wins out outside of Watson.

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Speaker 1: And right now, I think throwing that dart at Matthew Golden,

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Speaker 1: it's absolutely fine, despite the fact that I thought he

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Speaker 1: was an overvalued prospect and he didn't do anything last year.

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Speaker 1: But I am still drafting him right now. But because

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Speaker 1: he's an overrated prospect and he didn't do anything last year,

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Speaker 1: what if this is the year the Packers actually do

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Speaker 1: use Jaden Reed more on the outside. He barely has

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Speaker 1: played in two wide receiver sets in Green Bay, so

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Speaker 1: don't get your hopes up. But Green Bay has historically

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Speaker 1: had a lot more depth at wide receiver than they

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Speaker 1: do right now. So for the Packers, I just like

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Speaker 1: the Packers versus their cost because it's a bankable team.

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Speaker 1: Matt Lafleur has had a top half offense in touchdowns

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Speaker 1: per game every year that he's been the head coach there,

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Speaker 1: and none of these guys, including Josh Jacobs, are super expensive,

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Speaker 1: but in front of Jaden Reid is an often injured

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Speaker 1: Christian Watson and a completely unproven entity in Matthew Golden.

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Speaker 1: It's objectively an interesting setup for a guy who's been very,

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Speaker 1: very efficient per out run throughout his NFL career, and

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Speaker 1: with Josh Downs. I may not like the situation as much,

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Speaker 1: but Nick Westbrook Akine is not tough competition. Again, median

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00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:14,800
Speaker 1: outcomes show that Reed and Downs are simply slot players.

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00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:17,639
Speaker 1: That's what the projection is going to show. But I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't just make that assumption no matter what, if it

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Speaker 1: doesn't happen, there's a chance they do very well against

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Speaker 1: their ADP this year. So last season, the Jags acquired

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Speaker 1: Jacobe Myers prior to their Week ten matchup against Houston.

364
00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:34,119
Speaker 1: When they did that, Travis Hunter was done for the

365
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Speaker 1: year and they were switching usage around for Parker Washington.

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Speaker 1: From Week ten through Week eighteen, the Jags were fifth

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Speaker 1: in drives ending in a touchdown, they were fifth in

368
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Speaker 1: drives just ending in a scorer, and Trevor Lawrence averaged

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Speaker 1: twenty two point seven standard Fantasy points per game through

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Speaker 1: the end of the fantasy season. That was the second

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Speaker 1: highest mark in fantasy football. The Jags were unlocked down

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Speaker 1: the stretch last year, and I think we should feel

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Speaker 1: very bullish about how that team overall is going to

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Speaker 1: perform here in year two under Liam Cohen. With that

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Speaker 1: being said, totally understanding the deployment for their personnel is

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00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:11,359
Speaker 1: a pretty tough task. Right now. You could argue that

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Speaker 1: Parker Washington is similar to Michael Wilson, and then he

378
00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,240
Speaker 1: kind of emerged out of nowhere. He was awesome for fantasy,

379
00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:20,040
Speaker 1: but he didn't do it across the entire season. The

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Speaker 1: difference for me with Washington and Wilson is that Washington

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00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:27,919
Speaker 1: was bawling out with pretty good competition. Wilson splits they

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00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:31,760
Speaker 1: were pretty brutal when Marvin Harrison Junior was active. That

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Speaker 1: led to Washington having much better per route run numbers,

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Speaker 1: a two point zero six yards per rout run rate,

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Speaker 1: a twenty three percent targets per out run rate. He

386
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Speaker 1: just needed the opportunity and he got that when Travis

387
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Speaker 1: Hunter went down. Now, Washington played roughly half of his

388
00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:49,479
Speaker 1: snaps from the slot last year according to PFF, and

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Speaker 1: I think my fear with him, if I'm just gonna

390
00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,680
Speaker 1: look at the downside risk is that despite his numbers,

391
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:57,200
Speaker 1: Jacksonville just doesn't use him as much as we want

392
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Speaker 1: them to use him. They went tight end heavy in theft.

393
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Speaker 1: They clearly are shifting to a heavier personnel offense, and

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Speaker 1: that means the potential for fewer wide receivers on the field.

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Speaker 1: With Jakobe Myers, Brian Thomas, and even Travis Hunter there,

396
00:21:10,880 --> 00:21:13,200
Speaker 1: that could mean more of a rotation than we want

397
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Speaker 1: for fantasy football. With that being said, I don't think

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Speaker 1: I really want to fade anyone from this offense. It

399
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 1: was so good last year when things started to click,

400
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:23,480
Speaker 1: and if you want to just capture all of it,

401
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 1: you could obviously just get Trevor Lawrence too. But I'm

402
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 1: just being honest right here in May. That passing attack

403
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 1: is really hard to nail down. But it's a good

404
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:38,159
Speaker 1: offense and it projects well overall. We all know that

405
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:41,479
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley struggled last year. Kevin Bittulo was terrible as

406
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Speaker 1: offensive coordinator. I'm willing to put the blame on him.

407
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Speaker 1: The Eagles were bottom ten in play action rate, they

408
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:49,879
Speaker 1: were bottom five in their use of motion, and they

409
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:52,679
Speaker 1: ranked twenty six and percentage drives that ended up in

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Speaker 1: a score in twenty twenty four. Within that statistic, they

411
00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:59,200
Speaker 1: were eighth. Now, I'm not saying Jalen Hurts was brilliant,

412
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Speaker 1: but I do expect this Eagles offense to look better

413
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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six, specifically Sequon Barkley. Barkley in twenty

414
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Speaker 1: twenty five saw very normal volume peripherals and eighty one

415
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 1: percent running back rush air was nearly identical to what

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Speaker 1: he saw in twenty twenty four. In fact, it was

417
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:20,399
Speaker 1: technically a little bit higher. His target share was eleven

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00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:22,800
Speaker 1: point six percent in twenty twenty five. It was eleven

419
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 1: point four percent in twenty twenty four. The usage itself,

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00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:30,760
Speaker 1: the intent was mostly the same. The difference is that

421
00:22:30,800 --> 00:22:33,879
Speaker 1: none of the explosive plays were there, and hey, maybe

422
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,439
Speaker 1: he's breaking down a little bit, and we knew that

423
00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 1: he was going to regress in some way. His twenty

424
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 1: twenty four was just too out of control. But Barkley

425
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:44,840
Speaker 1: saw a twenty plus yard run on only one point

426
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:46,840
Speaker 1: four percent of his runs last year. That was by

427
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,880
Speaker 1: far a career low. He was able to gain positive

428
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 1: yards at the second lowest rate of his career. And

429
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Speaker 1: here's the real kicker. Barkley had fourteen attempts inside the

430
00:22:57,000 --> 00:23:00,800
Speaker 1: five at the goal line. He converted just one of them,

431
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 1: one goal line touchdown on fourteen goal line attempts. Now,

432
00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 1: obviously many of those attempts came outside push push range,

433
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 1: but it's still a really bad conversion rate. Barkley ended

434
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:15,920
Speaker 1: up underperforming in the rushing touchdown column last year when

435
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 1: looking versus expected, I fully expect things to be better

436
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 1: for Saquon Barkley this year, and projections are showing that too.

437
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 1: Miami's probably gonna be bad this year, which means they're

438
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,159
Speaker 1: gonna be forced to throw a little bit more than usual.

439
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,240
Speaker 1: But guys, I really think they're gonna just force feed

440
00:23:32,280 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 1: their running backs and just let Malik Willnis run wild.

441
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 1: They just don't have the pass catching depth to do

442
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:41,639
Speaker 1: anything significant through the air sustainably. And Malik Willis in

443
00:23:41,640 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 1: his six career starts, he's thrown no more than twenty

444
00:23:44,800 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 1: three pass attempts in a single start. He was at

445
00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 1: ten and sixteen in his first two starts to the Titans.

446
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:53,920
Speaker 1: But even if he hit that max of twenty three

447
00:23:53,960 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 1: across the season, that would finish as the second lowest

448
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 1: from any team since twenty eleven. If they did that

449
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 1: per game. Now, this isn't horrible for Willis from a

450
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 1: fantasy perspective because we know that he can run, and

451
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:09,160
Speaker 1: Devon a Chan could realistically see like a twenty percent

452
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:12,199
Speaker 1: target share in that offense. But if you're looking for

453
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 1: a winner at wide receiver for the Dolphins, sure throw

454
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 1: a dart at your favorite go for Jalen Tolbert if

455
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,119
Speaker 1: you want to. Just don't assume that someone has to

456
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 1: emerge in this offense. This is almost definitely gonna be

457
00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 1: a ground and pound offense, which is shots down the field.

458
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 1: The Malik willis special and the data certainly points that way.

459
00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,600
Speaker 1: Let's talk about the Chargers to end today's show. Over

460
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 1: the last two years, the Chargers had Greg Roman running

461
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 1: their offense. Now it's Mike McDaniel. Roman is known for

462
00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:46,040
Speaker 1: using heavier personnel his power run game, but he didn't

463
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:49,359
Speaker 1: do that quite as often with the Chargers. Mike McDaniel

464
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,879
Speaker 1: was actually bottom five and eleven personnel use each year

465
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:55,680
Speaker 1: in Miami as head coach. That wasn't always due to

466
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:57,960
Speaker 1: tight end usage, but I do think the recent signing

467
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,359
Speaker 1: of David Njoku tells us that they're o open to

468
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 1: that and Some of the lack of eleven personnel use

469
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:07,120
Speaker 1: is undoubtedly due to personnel. They had Tyreek Hill, they

470
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:09,800
Speaker 1: had Jalen Waddle, and they didn't have that much after them.

471
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:13,919
Speaker 1: But if you can bine everything McDaniel's historical use, the

472
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 1: Njoku signing, his use of fullbacks, I don't think this

473
00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,719
Speaker 1: is automatically a heavy eleven personnel team because they drafted

474
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,440
Speaker 1: Trey Harris last year and they have Ladd McConkie and

475
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 1: Quentin Johnston. What that means is that the wide receivers

476
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 1: who are out there, who are out there in one

477
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 1: or two wide receiver sets, they're probably gonna see an

478
00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 1: uptick and target share. And I think Ladd McConkie is

479
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 1: the best wide receiver in that offense. So I've leaned

480
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,440
Speaker 1: into him in early Best Ball drafts. I think he's

481
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:44,480
Speaker 1: a candidate to make a leap this year. As I've

482
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:47,679
Speaker 1: noted on shows this offseason, there was a great nugget

483
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,200
Speaker 1: from that Ryan Heath article that I referenced earlier when

484
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 1: it came to Ladd McConkie. He noted that McConkie ran

485
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 1: just ten percent of his routes from sets with fewer

486
00:25:55,080 --> 00:25:59,040
Speaker 1: than three wide receivers, and twenty twenty five, Jalen Waddle

487
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 1: under Mike McDaniel was at forty six percent. So there's

488
00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:05,680
Speaker 1: a lot of room for growth there for McConkey, assuming

489
00:26:05,720 --> 00:26:08,200
Speaker 1: he's the one consistently staying on the field, which I

490
00:26:08,200 --> 00:26:10,240
Speaker 1: think he's capable of doing because I think he's the

491
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 1: best wide receiver on that team. And then whoever you

492
00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:17,160
Speaker 1: like more Between Quentin Johnson and Trey Harris, their serious

493
00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:20,800
Speaker 1: opportunity for them to make that jump as well. Right now,

494
00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:23,360
Speaker 1: I would lean Quentin Johnston because I think he looked

495
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 1: a lot better in twenty twenty five. Unlike Greg Roman,

496
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 1: Mike McDaniel gets awesome efficiency and fantasy relevance from his

497
00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 1: wide receivers, and part of the reason for that is

498
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 1: McDaniel has been more pass heavy as a coach. His

499
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 1: Miami teams were seventeenth or higher and pass right over

500
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 1: expected in all four years there. He had an average

501
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 1: of plus one point one across his seasons as head coach.

502
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 1: Roman was about two points below that with the Chargers.

503
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 1: McDaniel's also known for scheming his guys open Miami ranked first, first, second,

504
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 1: and first, and their use of motion while he was

505
00:26:56,280 --> 00:27:00,120
Speaker 1: coaching there. For some context, Greg Roman's Chargers were twenty

506
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 1: last year in their use of motion and shout out

507
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:06,640
Speaker 1: to Fantasy Life for that data. Basically, McDaniel's offenses will

508
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 1: isolate wide receivers and allow them to see bigger boosts

509
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 1: and target share. We have to be open to that

510
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,760
Speaker 1: being personnel driven. But the Chargers move this offseason tell

511
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:18,120
Speaker 1: me that they're probably still gonna install a similar offense.

512
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:21,479
Speaker 1: They got a blocking tight end, they snagged alec Engole

513
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 1: to full back in free agency. They're probably gonna run

514
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:27,600
Speaker 1: the same Mike McDaniel offense, and I think that's good

515
00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 1: for basically everyone involved. Mconkee could thrive. The run game

516
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:34,879
Speaker 1: should be efficient. I'm not necessarily super high on a

517
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,479
Speaker 1: Marii and Hampton because I think Chase Brown in that

518
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 1: range is just a better bet here in May, but

519
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 1: I definitely haven't faded Hampton at all. Meanwhile, Keaton Mitchell's speed,

520
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:48,080
Speaker 1: who they signed this offseason. His speed in this offense

521
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 1: is very alluring as well. There are a lot of

522
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 1: pieces to like. And then there's the offensive line. The

523
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 1: Chargers are getting Rashawn Slater and Joe Waltback, which should

524
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,359
Speaker 1: be a massive boost. All played a normal number of

525
00:28:01,359 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 1: snaps last year in just four games. In those four games,

526
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 1: justin Herbert average nearly twenty two standard Fantasy points per game.

527
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 1: Outside of those four games, Herbert averaged sixteen point seven.

528
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 1: Now it's a small sample, but we all watched the

529
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 1: Chargers last year. Herbert finished with the highest quarterback pressure

530
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:22,120
Speaker 1: rate in football last year at nearly forty four percent

531
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:26,000
Speaker 1: according to Next Gen Stats. Now pressures they can be

532
00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 1: quarterback driven, so this isn't all on the offensive line,

533
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,320
Speaker 1: but that number was thirty three percent the year prior,

534
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 1: with the exact same quarterback and the exact same offense.

535
00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 1: So I'm very much in on this Chargers offense this year.

536
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 1: I think there's a chance that they're going to be

537
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 1: seriously awesome. So those are my overall notes. There's plenty

538
00:28:45,120 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 1: more to talk about. There's plenty more to discuss, but

539
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:49,240
Speaker 1: I wanted to get through some of the more pressing things.

540
00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 1: There's some of the things that I found most interesting.

541
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 1: We've got a couple of months to dissect this stuff

542
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 1: a lot further. That's it for today's show, though, thanks

543
00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 1: to all of you for listening. If you had subscribed

544
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:01,479
Speaker 1: to a Late Round fantasy football podcast. Make sure you

545
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 1: are restriching for it pretty much anywhere. Podcasts can be

546
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 1: found in do for to follow me on Twitter and

547
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 1: on Blue Sky at Late Round QB. Thanks for listening everyone.

548
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,840
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Late Round Show will be live

549
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 1: on Tuesday at noon this week instead of Wednesday. It's

550
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 1: gonna hit your feeds then on Thursday as usual, and

551
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 1: then on Friday we've got another episode of Late Round Perspectives.

552
00:29:22,280 --> 00:29:23,360
Speaker 1: I'll talk to you guys then