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Speaker 1: hundred Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to The Favorites,

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Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I'm Chad Moman,

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Speaker 1: chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We're heading into

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Speaker 1: the final four, but as always, football is everywhere, and

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Speaker 1: so Simon Hunter professional better, my companion, my compadre, my bff.

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Speaker 1: It's good to see your brother. Good to see you, buddy.

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Speaker 1: We're big time now. I keep saying that every time

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Speaker 1: I came here, but we actually have three producers now

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Speaker 1: for our little rinky Dink show. I'm sitting here with

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Speaker 1: three producers. Chad. We have more producers than we do

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Speaker 1: have hosts of this show. It's pretty incredible. I think

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Speaker 1: it's an indication of how big the Volume is getting.

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Speaker 1: They now have two producers. I'm looking forward to the

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Speaker 1: blood duel that will ensue to see who gets primacy

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Speaker 1: to be the a number one producer from the Volume

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Speaker 1: side of the Favorites. Anything before we get to, of course,

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Speaker 1: our Action Network college basketball experts who have been with

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Speaker 1: us all during the tournament, b J. Cunningham and Stucky.

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Speaker 1: Anything NFL related that we need to unpack before we

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Speaker 1: get to the college basketball. I mean, I know they

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Speaker 1: changed your overtime rules, which Matt Mitch would care less,

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Speaker 1: he's his old view is it's one year too late.

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Speaker 1: It's not fair, it's not fair, But it's a change

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Speaker 1: that we all support, right, we all think in the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: both teams should get the ball, even though we know

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Speaker 1: they're both going to score the exhausted defenses. Still you

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Speaker 1: never know, like that the Chiefs and the Bengals game,

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Speaker 1: that the Chiefs got the ball, they couldn't score. They

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Speaker 1: had to pun it to the Bengals, which in turn

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Speaker 1: did score. So I didn't know. I didn't really think

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Speaker 1: they needed to make the change, But I'm cool of

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Speaker 1: them making the change. So to me, that's the biggest news. Like,

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Speaker 1: I know we have the tire kill everything, all this

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Speaker 1: crazy movement, but that that overtime rule in the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: that's gonna be something that's a big deal going forward

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Speaker 1: for the rest of our lives. Yeah. Look like the

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Speaker 1: last few years since the overtime rule changed to the

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Speaker 1: touchdown scoring rules completely changed how you root for games, right,

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Speaker 1: and as you're getting close to the end of the game,

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Speaker 1: sometimes if your team is ahead, you're almost rooting for

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Speaker 1: the other team to tie, because if the spread is three,

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Speaker 1: you want to get it into overtimes to give them

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Speaker 1: the potential to score a touchdown. You know, it's just

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Speaker 1: that much more intensity and sweat for the rest of us.

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Speaker 1: It's just that much more drama. It's that much more discomfort.

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Speaker 1: It's that much more you and me testing on a

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Speaker 1: Sunday afternoon, saying, I can't believe we bet on the

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Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders. Can't wait a dam Let's bring in

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Speaker 1: our boys. B J Cunningham, Stucky, You've been with us

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Speaker 1: throughout the college basketball tournament. We've made it to a

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Speaker 1: final four. We've got Kansas playing Villanova. We've got poetically

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Speaker 1: like proof that God is a sports fan. We've got

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Speaker 1: U n C taking on Duke for the first time

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Speaker 1: ever in the n C Double A tournament. Coach K's

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Speaker 1: final set of games or game depending on what happens.

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Speaker 1: How lucky are we? This is fantastic. Stucky is a

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Speaker 1: man who was literally created to beg college basketball. How

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Speaker 1: do you feel about this Final four? I'm just pissed

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Speaker 1: off this overtime I had. I had a huge bills

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Speaker 1: future last year from the preseason, so of course I

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Speaker 1: knew they were going to change it after the both

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Speaker 1: didn't get possessions. But the tournament has been awful overall.

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Speaker 1: We kind of deserve these great matchups in the final four.

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Speaker 1: Hopefully we get some buzzer beaters. And uh yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: about time that we get to Carolina in the final four.

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Speaker 1: It's rare to get a conference matchup in the final four,

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Speaker 1: and since when the tournament expanded, this is the first

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Speaker 1: matchup where two teams will meet in the final four

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Speaker 1: that split just two regular season meetings one to one.

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Speaker 1: It's never happened before. It's only the fourth conference matchup

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Speaker 1: in the final four since two thousand. We've only seen

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Speaker 1: one in the past twenty years and that was Syracuse

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, And so yeah, it should be two really

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Speaker 1: good games. I'm excited for Villanova. Kansas to Vian was

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Speaker 1: a little shorthanded, but two great coaches there. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's blue blood Central in the final four, so hopefully

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Speaker 1: we get some really good games. I'm just glad that St.

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Speaker 1: Peter's didn't make it another round because no one needed

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Speaker 1: a wait a week to watch them get waxed so yeah,

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Speaker 1: I'm really excited. I think we got the two really

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Speaker 1: good games coming up. I agree with you. I was.

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Speaker 1: I was walking my dog this morning, twenty degrees here

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Speaker 1: in central Connecticut. At the end of March, I thought

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Speaker 1: to myself, these are the big thoughts I have as

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Speaker 1: a powerful media executive. We're getting the final four we

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Speaker 1: deserve because it was a kind of a boring tournament.

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Speaker 1: You know, the drama was fun. There were no buzzer beaters,

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Speaker 1: b J, no buzzer beaters. I know, it's insane, and

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Speaker 1: I feel like the first day was was pretty crazy

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Speaker 1: with all the upsets with Kentucky in Iowa, Connecticut, you know,

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Speaker 1: a bunch of teams going down. But after that there

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Speaker 1: really the only story was St. Peter's. I mean, we obviously,

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Speaker 1: you know, we had some really great games between Houston

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Speaker 1: and Arizona and pretty much every single number one seed

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Speaker 1: going down except for Kansas, who coming into the tournament.

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of people would agree would maybe

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Speaker 1: the most fraudulent number one seed of all the other

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Speaker 1: number one seeds. You know, have Gonzaga going down the

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Speaker 1: steet sixteen. There's a lot of like weird, interesting things,

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Speaker 1: and somehow we have this narcissistic retirement tour continuing into

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Speaker 1: the Final four that I am just so sick of

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Speaker 1: and ready to be over with. Spoken like a true leader,

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Speaker 1: which is all Shazewski says he ever wanted to be.

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Speaker 1: That's what I was trained to do. That's why I

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Speaker 1: went to West Point to be a leader. The headline

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Speaker 1: is gonna be coach K, Coach K, Coach K, Coach K,

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Speaker 1: down your throats for the next five days until we

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Speaker 1: finally get this thing over with. So I'm just hoping

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Speaker 1: and praying to God that dude does not win the title.

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Speaker 1: Ow dare you? How dare you? I mean, you gotta

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Speaker 1: admit this is this is ridiculous, Simon. I mean, we

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Speaker 1: are just on a pretty much a year long narcissistic

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Speaker 1: retirement to our out Coach K. I mean I am.

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Speaker 1: I was sick of it in June when he announced it,

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Speaker 1: and I am still sick of it now. So I

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Speaker 1: am just ready for Duke to be done. If I

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Speaker 1: spend every waking moment trying to just be you, eventually

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Speaker 1: that becomes a shallow of life. That can't be what

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Speaker 1: motivates me. No respective history, no respect for his elders

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Speaker 1: chat unbelievable. These young kids nowadays. I, on the other hand,

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Speaker 1: have enjoyed it every time I'm watching these games with him,

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Speaker 1: and I'm like, this is it. Like I not that

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Speaker 1: I thought they're gonna lose the Texas Tech, but I

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Speaker 1: honestly did go into that game thinking like Texas Tech

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Speaker 1: is gonna actually probably win this game, and it was

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Speaker 1: a weird feeling as a fan. I was like, this

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Speaker 1: is the last time I wanna watch coach k which

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Speaker 1: it's just different. I don't know, he's been in all

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Speaker 1: of our lives, were so long on their sideline. I'm

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Speaker 1: I'm very nostalgic about it. So I'm the opposite end

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Speaker 1: of you. I'm like, just sad about these coaches who

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Speaker 1: That's what I think of now with college basketball's change,

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Speaker 1: where it's not really I'm not attached to the players

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Speaker 1: that I was when I was really young. It's more

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Speaker 1: about the coaches for me as I've gotten older, so

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Speaker 1: it's just something I'm gonna miss. So I'm I'm enjoying it.

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Speaker 1: But I feel like we all know how this is

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Speaker 1: gonna end. It feels a little rig that Duke's gonna

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Speaker 1: somehow win this whole tournament. Oh, Duke is a d

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Speaker 1: percent winning the tournament. There's no doubt about it. If

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Speaker 1: the refs went out of their way for Baylor to

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Speaker 1: come back from twenty five against North Carolina and did

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Speaker 1: everything they could to keep Baylor to to get Baylor

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Speaker 1: to advance and they still couldn't, There's no way Duke

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Speaker 1: is not winning the national title. I'm with you, though, Simon.

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Speaker 1: I'm not a Duke fan at all. You know, I

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Speaker 1: don't have Duke animus, but like, I've never liked him

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Speaker 1: that much. I've always rooted from North Carolina over Duke.

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Speaker 1: But there's something about this run that I've been very

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Speaker 1: sentimental about. I keep thinking about the finality to sort

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Speaker 1: of a long career that has been so successful. I

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Speaker 1: also feel like coach k has been a little bit warmer.

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Speaker 1: He's like been a little bit more grandfatherly. It's made

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Speaker 1: him made me feel a little bit more, like you said,

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Speaker 1: nostalgic about the experience, stuck. Are you feeling and he

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Speaker 1: feels for Duke? No, I don't really care. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I appreciate the history, but I mean I grew up

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Speaker 1: hating Duke coming to my Duke so it was the

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Speaker 1: first team that I hated. He loved Duke. He was

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Speaker 1: at the Latener shot front row under the basket that

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Speaker 1: he made the shot and wow, And I didn't talk

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Speaker 1: to him like a week. I was I was only

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Speaker 1: like I was six years old, Um, so I don't

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Speaker 1: really remember. But my mom said I cried and then

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't talk to him for a week. So I

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Speaker 1: grew up hating Duke. And then they were playing Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: And then I married a girl, a Kentucky girl. My

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Speaker 1: dad says that's the only reason I did is because

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Speaker 1: of that shot. To get him back for it now,

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Speaker 1: but I mean, I appreciate the history of it. And

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Speaker 1: Duke's playing really well, probably the most talented team in

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Speaker 1: the country if you just go by composite recruiting ranks

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Speaker 1: and you know that you have like Kentucky, Duke, Memphis,

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Speaker 1: you know these are the teams that are up there,

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Speaker 1: just pure talent. And then Caroline is playing as well

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Speaker 1: as they have been since March first. They're the best

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Speaker 1: team in the country by a lot of metrics, and

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Speaker 1: they wax Duke to end the seasons. There's a lot

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Speaker 1: of storylines here, and then two teams playing really well

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Speaker 1: with a lot of talent. So I'm just excited for

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Speaker 1: game itself and I can appreciate the history of it.

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Speaker 1: There will be some some emotion there to see coach

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Speaker 1: k if that is his last game or not. I

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Speaker 1: think it just adds to the drama of the final

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Speaker 1: four and and the week long build up in a

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Speaker 1: tournament that hasn't had that much drama. Um, we're not

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Speaker 1: gonna be lacking for it in this in this game

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Speaker 1: for sure. Well listen, I think it's funny that the

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Speaker 1: two people who you would think are the most hard

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Speaker 1: scrabble when it comes to college basketball because we're not

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Speaker 1: regular watchers, are feeling the most sentimental and two people

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Speaker 1: who are more invested in college basketball emotionally and financially

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Speaker 1: could give a ship. So I think that's good because

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Speaker 1: now you can break down the games with zero sentimentality

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Speaker 1: or attachment. I'll say one more thing, I want to

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Speaker 1: break down the games. I've been incredibly annoyed at the

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Speaker 1: television schedule. I feel like they've screwed this up. I

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Speaker 1: feel like the way they are programming some of these games,

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Speaker 1: who they're putting on when they're putting them in the windows.

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Speaker 1: I just want to get that off my chest. I

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Speaker 1: thought it was like very specific when Duke played in

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Speaker 1: the ten o'clock window on the East Coast and got

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Speaker 1: Zaga played in the seven o'clock window. Get that game

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Speaker 1: at seven o'clock in prime time where everybody in the

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Speaker 1: East Coast can watch the whole game because no one

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Speaker 1: in the East Coast was staying up until one o'clock.

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Speaker 1: For was potentially his last game, especially not someone who

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Speaker 1: goes to bed at ten o'clock. But whatever, stuck break

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Speaker 1: it down. No, Justin Moore in Villanova, Kansas opened at

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Speaker 1: three and a half, immediately bet to four, up to

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Speaker 1: four and a half on the news of Justin Moore.

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Speaker 1: Give me your take. Yeah, I think it's a little

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Speaker 1: too high. I think we might see a five, and

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Speaker 1: then I'm gonna take Villanova. I make this line like

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Speaker 1: a little under one, close to a coin flip. More's

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Speaker 1: worth about two points to the spread. For me, it's

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Speaker 1: a little hard. You could argue that he's worth a

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Speaker 1: little more. They're all a lot of depth. So the

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Speaker 1: minutes the on off splits with him on the court

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Speaker 1: and off not significant, but a player of his caliber

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Speaker 1: in the pace that Villanova place and they play really slowly.

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Speaker 1: This is a pace clash. This is Villaneville plays really

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Speaker 1: slow bottom fifteen and adjusted tempo. Candice wants to play

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Speaker 1: fast top sixteen adjusted tempo. But I think more it's

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Speaker 1: worth about two points. But I think for the first

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Speaker 1: game without them if it might not sting as much.

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Speaker 1: Like I don't think Nova can win it all now

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Speaker 1: and that can't. They could, but it's just gonna take

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Speaker 1: a lot. And Moore's loss is gonna be really significcause

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Speaker 1: he's big on defense. He's big in their pick and roll,

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Speaker 1: and he's big backing down defenders when they invert their offense.

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Speaker 1: He can post up guards and he's really effective there

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Speaker 1: as well. So he's effective in many different facets. And

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Speaker 1: it's a team that just doesn't have depth or they're

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Speaker 1: they're you know, outside the top three bench minutes, they

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Speaker 1: don't a lot of guys. So who are you going

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Speaker 1: to get in for him? That's a major question mark.

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Speaker 1: Gond be antoine is it uh? Since it gets a

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Speaker 1: little iffy, But they played without him one game this

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Speaker 1: year and they waxed yukon a really good team. They

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Speaker 1: were up by tend ago. They ended up winning by eleven.

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Speaker 1: And I like backing these teams when they lose a

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Speaker 1: key player for the first game without them, and you know,

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Speaker 1: you kind of have this factor to two things work

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Speaker 1: in your favor. Everyone else kind of steps up. You

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Speaker 1: know it's all right, we know more is out, we

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Speaker 1: know we all have to step up. And then the

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Speaker 1: other thing, which I think is more important is that

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Speaker 1: you have a really good coach here with the whole

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Speaker 1: week to prepare, is that you're probably gonna get different

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Speaker 1: looks from Villanova that Kansas doesn't have on film. I'm

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Speaker 1: sure Jay Wright's gonna cook up some different things that

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Speaker 1: Candas doesn't have on tape that might be effective early on.

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Speaker 1: And look, Villanova keeps you out of transition and their

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Speaker 1: elite defending in transition. What you have to do against Kansas,

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Speaker 1: they're so good when they get out and run. Villanova's

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Speaker 1: gonna grind this game down to a hall. I think

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Speaker 1: they're gonna work through Dixon, They're gonna work through the

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00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:06,240
Speaker 1: post a lot more. They're gonna have some tricks up

279
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Speaker 1: their sleeve. But you know you can you can have

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Speaker 1: some success as against the Kansas big on offense and

281
00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:17,600
Speaker 1: Villanova is a really good defense. I think Antoine can

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Speaker 1: step in and still be effective. So I think there's

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Speaker 1: too many points and what I think will be a

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00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:24,840
Speaker 1: lower scoring game total. One can get five with Jay

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00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:27,360
Speaker 1: right here. It's a Kansas team that has struggled for

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Speaker 1: most of the season to get margin um, So I

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00:14:30,120 --> 00:14:33,160
Speaker 1: don't think it's a terrible matchup for Nova. The loss

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00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,240
Speaker 1: of more hurts, but I think it's being over accounted

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00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:38,720
Speaker 1: for in the market, and for a one game without them,

290
00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:40,840
Speaker 1: I think everyone else can step up. You might have

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Speaker 1: some new looks. So I'll be on Nova here and

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Speaker 1: I hope I'm waiting to see if I can get five.

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00:14:46,640 --> 00:14:49,280
Speaker 1: P J Yeah, I agree with him. I'm just to

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00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:51,320
Speaker 1: at off what stuck. He said. The main point is,

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00:14:51,400 --> 00:14:54,160
Speaker 1: you know, a great coach like Jay Wright having a

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Speaker 1: lot of time to prepare for this is huge. I

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00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:58,720
Speaker 1: think that especially if they keep out of transition and

298
00:14:58,720 --> 00:15:00,040
Speaker 1: playing this game in the half court, it's gonn of

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00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:03,000
Speaker 1: benefit them greatly because Kansas, while they're really getting transition,

300
00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:05,480
Speaker 1: they're really not that effective in the half court. Their

301
00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:08,320
Speaker 1: hundred fifty second and points possession and half court offense,

302
00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:10,880
Speaker 1: and what Villanova does a fantastic job at and you

303
00:15:10,920 --> 00:15:13,600
Speaker 1: saw it against Houston is they keep teams away from

304
00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:15,600
Speaker 1: the rim. Their top twenty five in terms of preventing

305
00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:17,760
Speaker 1: teams getting the rim and then also top twenty five

306
00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:19,560
Speaker 1: in field goal percentage allowed at the rim. So that

307
00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:22,840
Speaker 1: forced Houston into a lot of outside shots. They obviously

308
00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:25,400
Speaker 1: went one of twenty from behind the ark. Now, obviously

309
00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:27,800
Speaker 1: you know that's not gonna over time, their regression is

310
00:15:27,800 --> 00:15:28,920
Speaker 1: going to catch up with them, and a lot of

311
00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:31,480
Speaker 1: those shots for Houston were open. But it echoes a

312
00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:33,720
Speaker 1: larger point that that's what Houston was forced to do.

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00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:35,760
Speaker 1: They weren't forced to be able to get anything inside.

314
00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:38,080
Speaker 1: So David McCormick and Mitch Lightfoot, even though they have

315
00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:40,920
Speaker 1: high advantages over anybody that Villanova has up there, I

316
00:15:40,960 --> 00:15:43,520
Speaker 1: still think Villana will be effective down in the post.

317
00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:45,440
Speaker 1: So I agree with Stuffy. I think the number is

318
00:15:45,880 --> 00:15:49,080
Speaker 1: floating a tad too high. The question mark I have

319
00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:51,320
Speaker 1: is Jay Right can switch things up. You know, Villain

320
00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:52,960
Speaker 1: obviously runs a ton of pick and roll and shoots

321
00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:54,840
Speaker 1: a lot of threes. Well, Kansas is very good at

322
00:15:54,840 --> 00:15:57,640
Speaker 1: defending both those things. So if they can play this

323
00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:00,680
Speaker 1: game in the half court like suck said, maybe go

324
00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:02,960
Speaker 1: through the post a little bit more. With Dickson, I

325
00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,760
Speaker 1: think it's a decent matchup for Villanova, So I agree

326
00:16:05,760 --> 00:16:07,480
Speaker 1: with Stucky. If we can get a five, I'll be

327
00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:10,720
Speaker 1: with him firing on Villanova. What if you can't. Right now,

328
00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:16,320
Speaker 1: of the bets are on Kansas. Of the money, I

329
00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:18,920
Speaker 1: think that was a lot of early money that moved it.

330
00:16:19,680 --> 00:16:22,600
Speaker 1: What if it doesn't get to five, I mean I'd

331
00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:25,280
Speaker 1: probably end up just playing four and a half at

332
00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:29,280
Speaker 1: a principle. Uh, maybe you can get a better number live, uh,

333
00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:32,040
Speaker 1: and maybe you can get a situation where if Villanova

334
00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:33,920
Speaker 1: goes up early, which they've gone up early pretty much

335
00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:35,560
Speaker 1: every game in this tournament and has been able to

336
00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:37,960
Speaker 1: control the pace, you may be able to get a

337
00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:40,800
Speaker 1: nice middle situation and get Kansas out of plus number.

338
00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:43,800
Speaker 1: So if if Villanova can start fast and get out

339
00:16:43,800 --> 00:16:45,320
Speaker 1: and make a few shots to start the game and

340
00:16:45,360 --> 00:16:48,400
Speaker 1: slow this tempo down, I do believe Kansas can get

341
00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:49,840
Speaker 1: back in this game. So you might get a good

342
00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:52,240
Speaker 1: chance in the middle. But four and a half is

343
00:16:52,320 --> 00:16:56,560
Speaker 1: getting close and probably good enough for me to play it. Yeah,

344
00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,080
Speaker 1: I like I like hearing that, So look at this

345
00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:03,080
Speaker 1: in this matchup U n C Duke eight seed first,

346
00:17:03,160 --> 00:17:06,080
Speaker 1: the two seed. All I heard all year. I just

347
00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:07,680
Speaker 1: gotta get this all my chest. The a c C,

348
00:17:07,840 --> 00:17:10,640
Speaker 1: how bad it was. We heard it all year about

349
00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:12,879
Speaker 1: how bad a SEC was. Now we're sitting here with

350
00:17:12,920 --> 00:17:15,639
Speaker 1: two teams in the final four. Would you both agree

351
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:18,639
Speaker 1: I'll go to you first, b J, that the either

352
00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:21,960
Speaker 1: team Duke or UNC will be favorite versus Kansas or

353
00:17:22,600 --> 00:17:27,160
Speaker 1: Nova in the final. I would think that Kansas would

354
00:17:27,200 --> 00:17:29,840
Speaker 1: probably be a favorite over U n C. But I

355
00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,440
Speaker 1: do think that Duke will be a favorite over Nova

356
00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:34,439
Speaker 1: or Kansas. So I think the only scenario you have

357
00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:36,440
Speaker 1: there is Kansas being a favorite. But I mean you

358
00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:38,040
Speaker 1: talk about the a CEC, I mean they were bad

359
00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:40,000
Speaker 1: for most of the season. It's basically just Duke or nothing.

360
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:42,240
Speaker 1: And North Carolina has gotten hot here in the tournament,

361
00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:44,720
Speaker 1: and you know Miami obviously got hot as well. So yeah,

362
00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:45,919
Speaker 1: at the end of the season we can say the

363
00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,720
Speaker 1: a CEC was great, but during the regular season they weren't.

364
00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:50,280
Speaker 1: Like it wasn't even close to the level of the

365
00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:54,200
Speaker 1: SEC or Big Ten. So um, yeah, it's this just

366
00:17:54,280 --> 00:17:56,080
Speaker 1: kind of happens from time to time, and tournament teams

367
00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:57,560
Speaker 1: get hot and then at the end we say, oh

368
00:17:57,600 --> 00:17:59,639
Speaker 1: my gosh, the a C is great, but the reality was,

369
00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:04,480
Speaker 1: for most season they really weren't Duke. Duke and Duke

370
00:18:04,520 --> 00:18:07,400
Speaker 1: and Kansas are about even. From a Power Writings perspective,

371
00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:10,160
Speaker 1: you'd probably get Duke driven out to a one one

372
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:12,439
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite. Maybe oddsmakers open it there

373
00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:16,400
Speaker 1: because they'll probably be some public love for Duke, especially

374
00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:20,159
Speaker 1: after they beat Carolina. But from a metric standpoint, most

375
00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:23,240
Speaker 1: people would would line that game right around a pick.

376
00:18:23,400 --> 00:18:26,520
Speaker 1: And then you know, right now, Duke is a four

377
00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:30,760
Speaker 1: point favorite over Carolina, so you can assume that you know,

378
00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:35,720
Speaker 1: Carolina is a four point underdog against Kansas as well.

379
00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,840
Speaker 1: But North Carolina would have just beat Duke. They'll probably

380
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,800
Speaker 1: get a bump for that. Depending on how Kansas looks

381
00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:45,280
Speaker 1: against the underman Nova team, I don't know. I would

382
00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:49,359
Speaker 1: say it's probably gonna be Kansas minus three, maybe two

383
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:51,480
Speaker 1: and a half, depends on how good North Carolina and

384
00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:55,359
Speaker 1: Kansas look, but Kansas would definitely be favorite over North Carolina.

385
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,200
Speaker 1: Duke Kansas toss up, and I think that it would

386
00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:01,200
Speaker 1: end up being Duke a small favorite. Wow. Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: this matchup, we'll start with U B J. What do

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00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,600
Speaker 1: you think man? You n see duke four points in

422
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 1: a matchup where these teams have already faced each other.

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00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:09,880
Speaker 1: Isn't that one of those where it's like I gotta

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00:21:09,920 --> 00:21:11,760
Speaker 1: just throw my phant amount just take the four points,

425
00:21:11,760 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 1: like this line is too high for this kind of

426
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:16,200
Speaker 1: a matchup. Yeah, I think the line is priced pretty

427
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:18,880
Speaker 1: correctly in this matchup. What I'm very interested to see

428
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,280
Speaker 1: from Duke a lot of the narrative round is because

429
00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:23,920
Speaker 1: North Carolina plays a very fast tempo their top forty

430
00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:27,360
Speaker 1: and adjusted tempo. But the two matchups that they faced,

431
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:31,159
Speaker 1: Duke just torched North Carolina and transition one point one

432
00:21:31,200 --> 00:21:33,280
Speaker 1: five points possession the first matchup and one point to

433
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:36,080
Speaker 1: four in the second. So Duke obviously plays a slower

434
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 1: pace in North Carolina. You could say, well, if they

435
00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:40,679
Speaker 1: play in the half court, that's gonna be advantage they

436
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:43,680
Speaker 1: can keep North Carolina at a transition. Well, North Carolina

437
00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:45,879
Speaker 1: is outside the top two hundred defending and transition. And

438
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:48,399
Speaker 1: with those two matchups earlier, I mean the second matchup,

439
00:21:48,400 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 1: there were seventy five possessions. That's the fastest pace that

440
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:52,959
Speaker 1: Duke has played all throughout the a C Regular season

441
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:56,119
Speaker 1: Conference Tournament and the n c A Tournament. So with both,

442
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 1: I think that it actually is an advantage for Duke

443
00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:01,080
Speaker 1: to play a track me here with North Carolina, given

444
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,880
Speaker 1: the success they've had against them before. What I find

445
00:22:03,920 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 1: interesting in that second match because need A team really

446
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 1: shot the ball lights out, even though we had a

447
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy five points. I mean both were about

448
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 1: from inside of the ark. Only six teen threes were

449
00:22:13,560 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 1: made in the game. But these teams combined for ninety

450
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,479
Speaker 1: two points at the rim, and both of them are

451
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:20,400
Speaker 1: very good teams at defending at the rim, So that's

452
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:22,000
Speaker 1: that I find that very interesting. I think we'll probably

453
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,119
Speaker 1: see some regression there. The difference in that game was

454
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 1: not kind of just got to line twenty two times

455
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 1: and Dukette under ten three throws. So both these teams

456
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:31,119
Speaker 1: are top ten in terms of free throw re allowed.

457
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 1: So it's it's really really interesting. I actually like the

458
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:35,480
Speaker 1: over a hundred fifty one points. I know we're playing

459
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:37,399
Speaker 1: in a football stadium here and the site lines and

460
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:40,639
Speaker 1: all that jazz that could throw off teams shooting, but

461
00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:42,960
Speaker 1: I really think the pace is going to be very

462
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,679
Speaker 1: fast in this one because given the matchup and at

463
00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:47,560
Speaker 1: the fact that North Carolina is actually very good in

464
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:50,280
Speaker 1: the half court in terms of defense, that the second

465
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 1: best defensive rebounding team, they don't foul. I think it's

466
00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 1: actually a big advantage for Duke to get out of

467
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 1: trans get out and transition and play this as somewhat

468
00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 1: of a fast pace. So the total sitting at one one.

469
00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:02,200
Speaker 1: I actually like the over here. Even if these teams

470
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 1: come out shooting, it comes out slow, maybe nervous a

471
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 1: little bit. You might be able to get jumping on

472
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:08,440
Speaker 1: alive over as well. So I think we're gonna see

473
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 1: a fast paced game and a lot of points here.

474
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:13,399
Speaker 1: In the third meeting Stuck, I would lean towards Carolina here.

475
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 1: I think the line is pretty good. I mean, Duke

476
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:16,760
Speaker 1: was an eleven and a half point favorite at home

477
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 1: and that Coach k send off at their from his

478
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 1: home finale, and Carolina rolled. Duke rolled on Carolina's home court.

479
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 1: But since that game, you know, you have you had

480
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:28,840
Speaker 1: some public money built into that, the situation of coach

481
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 1: gas final home game, and you know Cameron is worth

482
00:23:31,359 --> 00:23:33,440
Speaker 1: you know in the conference gave me upwards of four

483
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:36,320
Speaker 1: points in that spot for maybe four and a half

484
00:23:36,359 --> 00:23:40,200
Speaker 1: points in that particular spot, so you know you would say, okay, well, Duke,

485
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:44,160
Speaker 1: now the neutral court should be what six seven? But Carolinas,

486
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,160
Speaker 1: you know, won that game. They get a huge bump.

487
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,720
Speaker 1: Duke gets downgraded. And since the first of the month,

488
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:51,880
Speaker 1: which is a seven game sample size, pretty big sample size,

489
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:54,440
Speaker 1: and when we're talking thirty games, that's about a quarter

490
00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:56,119
Speaker 1: of the year, Caroline has been the best team in

491
00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 1: the country. And if you adjust for an opponent, and

492
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 1: they've been they've been played ing to the team that

493
00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:04,680
Speaker 1: we thought and look, their peak is as good as

494
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 1: anyone in the country, maybe just slightly below Duke's. But

495
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 1: the problem is with Carolina all years that the consistency

496
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 1: wasn't there. You would see them, you know, lose at

497
00:24:13,160 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 1: home to Boston College and it's just a defense didn't

498
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:19,080
Speaker 1: show up in certain games. But it's a tournament you

499
00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 1: can expect the defensive shop and that's been the case

500
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:24,960
Speaker 1: so far the tournament. All their guards are playing really well.

501
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 1: Brady Mannock is a is a matchup problem, you know

502
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:29,439
Speaker 1: when you got Bay caught in the middle. It's just

503
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:32,160
Speaker 1: a really talented team and I've been impressed with what

504
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 1: their first time at coaching Davis has done and some

505
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,879
Speaker 1: of the adjustments that he's made. So I think that

506
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,119
Speaker 1: Duke should be favorite of the line is about right,

507
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 1: But I think it's gonna come down to the wire.

508
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 1: I don't think either defense can really stop the other offense.

509
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 1: Duke's defense still has major issues that you know, everyone

510
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 1: is really forgetting about down the stretch. They couldn't stop

511
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 1: a nosebleed. You know, they got just shredded by Virginia Tech.

512
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 1: They got shredded by North Carolina, and then you know

513
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 1: they get tournament. They look better, but they've played. You know,

514
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 1: Arkansas doesn't have a great offense. Texas Tech has a

515
00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 1: horrific offense, uh and they still scored at will. North

516
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 1: Carolina is the best offense by far that Duke will face.

517
00:25:12,320 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 1: They can really exploit some of the off ball issues

518
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:18,359
Speaker 1: that they have. North Carolina's defense also isn't great, and

519
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,920
Speaker 1: Duke's offense is arguably the most talented in the country.

520
00:25:22,240 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 1: I don't see Carolina get many stops, so it's a

521
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 1: really high total for a final four game. You know,

522
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:28,960
Speaker 1: you gotta have a lot go right, and you can't

523
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 1: have the teams get tight and start to play slow late,

524
00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:34,119
Speaker 1: which can happen. But I would also lean over. I

525
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 1: would also lean taking the points of Carolina. I haven't

526
00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 1: played anything yet, but I also think it's a great

527
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 1: live trading game. Should be runs on both sides. If

528
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 1: you want to wait to get you know, Carolina with

529
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 1: a better number or Duke with a better number, I

530
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:50,159
Speaker 1: think you will be able to do so during the

531
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:51,560
Speaker 1: course of the game. And if you want to get

532
00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:53,879
Speaker 1: both sides, you know, say Duke get a pick in

533
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:56,159
Speaker 1: Carolina plus six or seven and try to middle it,

534
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 1: I think there'll be a good chance you have that

535
00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 1: opportunity as well. But I think this game really comes

536
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:04,000
Speaker 1: down to the wire and it should be one of

537
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 1: the most exciting games of the tournam because I don't

538
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 1: think either defense can stop the other offense. Throughout this

539
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:11,480
Speaker 1: whole tournament run, Duke has not faced a good three

540
00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 1: point shooting team. Arkansas was outside the top three hundred,

541
00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 1: Texas Tech has been streaky all season long. Obviously Michigan

542
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 1: State hasn't been good, and then obviously Folks and that

543
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:21,320
Speaker 1: didn't take a high number of threes. North Carolina can

544
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:23,440
Speaker 1: knock it down from behind the arc their thirty eight

545
00:26:23,440 --> 00:26:25,240
Speaker 1: percent on the season, they made a ton of threes

546
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:29,880
Speaker 1: against Duke in both meetings, So it's it's really troublesome

547
00:26:29,920 --> 00:26:31,960
Speaker 1: here for Duke, and I think we're gonna see their

548
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,879
Speaker 1: defense start to aggress back to like what like what stuck?

549
00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 1: He said, back to the a C C tournament against

550
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 1: Virginia Tech. Consensus here seems to be leaning towards Villanova

551
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 1: if you can get to five, but you still kind

552
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 1: of like it a four and a half. Lean towards

553
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 1: the over in Duke u n C. We're just happy

554
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 1: to get a final four that has high profile teams

555
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 1: and hopefully get good games and a good final Stucky.

556
00:26:56,160 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 1: B J Action Network College basketball experts. Thank you for

557
00:27:00,640 --> 00:27:02,960
Speaker 1: all you've done. Thank you for all the work on

558
00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 1: the b BOC pods. Thank you for all the work

559
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 1: supplying content to the masses in the app. Actually network

560
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:15,080
Speaker 1: dot com For Simon Hunter, I'm schad Noman. Download the podcast, Apple, Podcast, Spotify,

561
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,600
Speaker 1: wherever you get in the podcasts, rate review, subscribe, five stars,

562
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:22,760
Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Until next time.

563
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 1: I love you. It's a buzzer Beaters