Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along
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Speaker 1: to sell?
Speaker 2: Can I sell a newsletter?
Speaker 3: Sure?
Speaker 1: Your Denny Quick Takes, folks, and we protect the copyright religiously.
Speaker 2: Of our guests.
Speaker 1: That's rule number one at Bloomberg Surveillance. Your Denny Quick
Speaker 1: Takes It comes in your feed in its blindingly CJ.
Speaker 1: Lawrence short and to the point. And whether you agree
Speaker 1: or disagree with doctor Yardanny, it frames an assists.
Speaker 2: You in your equity belief.
Speaker 1: Why don't you bring in Paul the guy who tells
Speaker 1: me I'm living the Roaring twenties.
Speaker 3: Exactly right, Ed Yard Denny. He is a president founder
Speaker 3: of a Yard Denny Research thanks so much for taking
Speaker 3: the time to join us.
Speaker 1: Year.
Speaker 3: I think a lot of people are looking at the
Speaker 3: economic data we've been getting over the last several weeks,
Speaker 3: looking at the earnings we're now parsing through here over
Speaker 3: the last couple weeks, and trying to get a sense
Speaker 3: of where we go with this market here, How are
Speaker 3: you framing all that data? How are you putting it
Speaker 3: in your model and coming out with kind of a
Speaker 3: view here.
Speaker 4: Well, it's been a go go market. I mean, it
Speaker 4: just keeps going. Certainly hasn't paused this year. It's been
Speaker 4: straight up actually since October of last year. We had
Speaker 4: a bit of a correction from August October last year,
Speaker 4: but it's also been more or less straight up with
Speaker 4: a brief ten percent correction since October of twenty twenty two.
Speaker 4: So it's been a phenomenal bull market.
Speaker 3: And Tom, for those are viewers on YouTube, that is
Speaker 3: a bookshelf. I have like three books on my body.
Speaker 3: Doctor Denny has a bookshelf.
Speaker 2: Excuse me. The blue button. The blue button is a
Speaker 2: Detroit Lions button. Thank you your Dennis got up there.
Speaker 2: Every book Robert Schiller's ever written, that's what it is.
Speaker 3: So Ed I mean, one of the things that I
Speaker 3: think concerns that you know some people have now is
Speaker 3: just boy, is if we've gone a little bit too far,
Speaker 3: too fast over the last three to four months, because
Speaker 3: I haven't seen earnings necessarily follow the performance of some
Speaker 3: of these risk assets.
Speaker 4: Well, we've seen earnings turning out to be surprisingly good
Speaker 4: for the megacap eight. Those stocks have done quite well,
Speaker 4: and we've seen as a result of that, we've seen
Speaker 4: these stocks do.
Speaker 2: Very very well.
Speaker 4: But overall, the economy is doing very well, and earning
Speaker 4: is I think are going to be something like two
Speaker 4: hundred and fifty dollars per share for the S and
Speaker 4: P five hundred this year, and that would be up
Speaker 4: from two twenty last year.
Speaker 2: And then beyond that, I.
Speaker 4: Think we'll see earnings continue to grow into twenty five
Speaker 4: and twenty twenty six. You don't see your recession. I
Speaker 4: think it keeps going.
Speaker 1: Edgar Denny with us here for the entire half hour.
Speaker 1: We're going to take a break in the middle of
Speaker 1: it to pay for Lisa Mitato's Super Bowl gluten free
Speaker 1: veggie chips. But other than that, Edgiar Denny with us
Speaker 1: for this half hour. Ed I want to frame out
Speaker 1: the shock sixty days ago where you said we're going
Speaker 1: to fifty four hundred SPX, I did the fancy math
Speaker 1: and got the Dow Jones Industrial average out to forty
Speaker 1: three thousand. On that number, do you get any sense
Speaker 1: that there's Schillarian exuberance out there? Are we getting a
Speaker 1: Robert Shiller Alan Greenspan irrational exuberance?
Speaker 2: I don't feel it.
Speaker 4: I think we've got exuberance for sure, and then it's
Speaker 4: debatable whether it's irrational. Yet right now it looks like
Speaker 4: rational exuberance. We still have a lot of money just
Speaker 4: parked on the side earning money market funds. We got
Speaker 4: something like six trillion dollars just in money market funds,
Speaker 4: So money isn't exactly pouring out of short term assets.
Speaker 2: Yes, I don't see the market well quickly or is
Speaker 2: it going to go?
Speaker 1: Is the money market fund going to support the yard
Speaker 1: Denny fifty four hundred SPX?
Speaker 4: Well, fifty four hundred, it doesn't look so amazing anymore. Yeah,
Speaker 4: that's why I'm talking about six thousand by the end
Speaker 4: of next year. There, fifty four hundred isn't as impressive
Speaker 4: as six thousand by the In the next year. Given
Speaker 4: how much territory we've covered.
Speaker 1: Ed your Denny with us, I can't say enough about
Speaker 1: his researcher comes in different platforms.
Speaker 2: Your Denny Quick Takes is worth its weight in gold.
Speaker 1: It's short, short, short, focused, and it synthesizes in his
Speaker 1: Yell economics all of his work on Wall Street over
Speaker 1: the decades into a call optimism in the American economic
Speaker 1: experiment to wit and I go back to what I
Speaker 1: call the yard Denny and campoora low two giants ed
Speaker 1: Yard Denny and the technical analyst Ralph and Campora lonely
Speaker 1: in October of twenty twenty two. And to get up
Speaker 1: to the Dow equivalent forty six thousand, which is ed
Speaker 1: Yard Denny's SPX six thousand, is a lift of sixty
Speaker 1: one percent, Doctor yardnny. Is that a normal lift out
Speaker 1: of an angst time when everybody's gloomy is up sixty percent?
Speaker 2: Normal?
Speaker 4: Well, it doesn't come with a money back guarantee. I mean,
Speaker 4: we always have risk in our forecasts, and we have
Speaker 4: to acknowledge that there are risks or geopolitical risks. There's
Speaker 4: always the risk that the price of oil spikes up again.
Speaker 4: But my base case is what I call a Roaring
Speaker 4: twenty twenties. It does rhyme with the Roaring nineteen twenties.
Speaker 4: And in this case, I think the technology innovations that
Speaker 4: are out there to boost productivity are already working. There's
Speaker 4: a significant shortage of vibor in our country's skill labor
Speaker 4: and technology is going to solve that problem on productivity.
Speaker 1: And again, the Mobson Callahan Morgan Stanley essay is brilliant,
Speaker 1: and it's February and it's already my essay here.
Speaker 2: What's that about?
Speaker 1: Maybe subject change, but on productivity at JR. Danny, it's
Speaker 1: about corporations adapting right, there's layoffs, there's right sizing, and
Speaker 1: that it's not about cost cutting.
Speaker 2: What's it about a new efficiency?
Speaker 4: I think it's exactly about a new efficiency. It's technology led.
Speaker 4: It doesn't mean that people are going to lose their jobs.
Speaker 4: I mean there is always churn in our labor market.
Speaker 4: We are saying in some of these technology companies cutting
Speaker 4: back in areas where they just don't see much upside anymore.
Speaker 4: But I think most of those people are going to
Speaker 4: find jobs very very quickly. They're very skilled, and there's
Speaker 4: a real shortage of skilled workers. I think what the
Speaker 4: chnology does is it augments the productivity of workers and
Speaker 4: therefore allows for the economy to grow more quickly. The
Speaker 4: labor force has only been growing around one percent or
Speaker 4: less over the past few years. And that's all we
Speaker 4: have to look forward to with real GDP if there's
Speaker 4: no productivity growth. But companies and businesses and entrepreneurs are
Speaker 4: aspirational and they are going to use technology to increase productivity.
Speaker 4: And it's already happening. We had an amazing three quarters
Speaker 4: last year. Last three quarters, productivity was extremely strong.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 4: For the years aholl it was two point seven percent
Speaker 4: and Paul, the world was coming to an end.
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, And that's amazing how productive folks were, even
Speaker 3: from the comforts of their own home. So ed one
Speaker 3: of the big drivers or one of the big investment
Speaker 3: themes in twenty twenty three, which looks like it's continuing
Speaker 3: into twenty twenty four, is this whole concept of artificial
Speaker 3: intelligence AI. It's not just the Magnificent seven. It seems
Speaker 3: like every company in the S and P five hundred
Speaker 3: mentions AI multiple times during their quarterly earnings calls, what
Speaker 3: do you make this? You've seen technologies come and go.
Speaker 3: You've seen waves come and go. What do you think
Speaker 3: of this AI thing?
Speaker 4: Well, I should really be embracing it as a confirmation
Speaker 4: of my roaring twenty twenties outlook, But I don't know.
Speaker 4: I'm agnostic on it. I want to see more evidence
Speaker 4: that it actually is making a huge difference. I'm still
Speaker 4: trying to have a conversation with Siri, and Siri you
Speaker 4: can only ask her one question at a time. You
Speaker 4: can't ask you to book you theater tickets or order
Speaker 4: dinner for you. So I'm wondering if Apple and Google
Speaker 4: couldn't get their personal assistance to really be interactive. I'm
Speaker 4: kind of wondering whether a lot of this may be
Speaker 4: artificial but not really intelligent, just quite yet. Look, it
Speaker 4: is a statistical model. It's kind of like when you
Speaker 4: sit down to write on word and the thing anticipates if.
Speaker 2: You write prod.
Speaker 4: It says, oh, you want productivity, and then you say, yes,
Speaker 4: I will get it.
Speaker 1: Partly in Twitter, it is a spectacular Bloomberg BusinessWeek effort
Speaker 1: by Ashley Vance on artificial intelligence. And they have taken
Speaker 1: scrolls in the old world.
Speaker 2: They're all clay.
Speaker 1: They're looking firewood logs, and they're using computers to read
Speaker 1: the scrolls, which they believe have never before seen. Classics
Speaker 1: like from Aristotle, really like Plato.
Speaker 2: Sounds like from Dr Denny. It's a good story.
Speaker 1: We hope to have mister Vance on next week if
Speaker 1: his people will agree with our people continue.
Speaker 3: Hey, Ed, you know one of the things we've I
Speaker 3: think a lot of investors have become I guess used
Speaker 3: to or expect, and they expect the tech sector to
Speaker 3: drive this market, to pull this market higher. Is that
Speaker 3: still the case? It seems like it with these magnificent
Speaker 3: seven And if so, that is that okay for this market?
Speaker 4: Well, there's this perception that that's not a legitimate little
Speaker 4: market because it's been very concentrated. It's been led by
Speaker 4: only seven or eight stocks, whether you know. I like
Speaker 4: to talk about the megacap eight because I watch a
Speaker 4: lot of Netflix, so I throw that in there with
Speaker 4: a magnificent seven. But yeah, I think technology continues to
Speaker 4: lead the way. Semiconductors have been on fire, and I
Speaker 4: think they continue to do extremely well. But as you
Speaker 4: sort of mentioned, every company is mentioning AI these days.
Speaker 4: I think every company is a technology company. You either
Speaker 4: make it or you use it. If you don't use it,
Speaker 4: you lose it, you go out of business. You have
Speaker 4: to use technology. What's really amazing about technology today is
Speaker 4: it's really focuses on augmenting the brain. It used to
Speaker 4: be all about productivity, used to be all about augmenting
Speaker 4: the brawn of humans. Now we're talking about the brain
Speaker 4: of humans, and we've a potential of.
Speaker 2: That is awesome. How did bull markets end badly?
Speaker 4: I mean, you know there is a potential here for
Speaker 4: something as we as you mentioned before of the nineteen
Speaker 4: ninety nineteen nineties. If there's a stock today that reminds
Speaker 4: me of Cisco, it's in video, and video made a
Speaker 4: lot of money on gaming chips. Then it became a
Speaker 4: bitcoin mining and now it's it's AI, and these are
Speaker 4: all legitimate sources of income. The stock has been on
Speaker 4: fire for good reasons. Earnings have been very strong. But
Speaker 4: Cisco went to the moon and then back, even though
Speaker 4: it made a lot of equipment for the Internet, and
Speaker 4: the Internet certainly survived and thrived, and I think AI
Speaker 4: will survive and thrive. But I think it is a
Speaker 4: little bit more hype than that then is justified for
Speaker 4: what it can deliver just yet, Paul, what.
Speaker 2: Do you make of that? I mean, well, here's I
Speaker 2: love the Cisco warning.
Speaker 3: But here's another alum from CJ. Lawrence. I mean, pound
Speaker 3: for pound. If people don't know, go back and google
Speaker 3: that pound for pound. That was some of the best
Speaker 3: research coming out of Wall Street for a long period
Speaker 3: of time.
Speaker 5: C J.
Speaker 3: Lawrence.
Speaker 1: Back, it was printed back in the day, Back in
Speaker 1: the day, folks, that weren't PDFs, and it was tactile,
Speaker 1: and it was visceral. There was paper and you had
Speaker 1: a pencil. And I'm sorry, Paul, I thought that oftentimes.
Speaker 1: I think that's way more valuable.
Speaker 2: You're in Timer joins us in the studio today.
Speaker 1: What did the charts say about the Magnificent seven? Will
Speaker 1: Danoff as twelve thirteen percent of his portfolio in meta Facebook?
Speaker 1: What do your charts say to Countrafund?
Speaker 6: Good morning? And by the way, the charvelroom really used
Speaker 6: to be like a war room back in the day,
Speaker 6: preceding even Ned Johnson, but his father, mister Johnson, and
Speaker 6: that's where they would just you know, strategize because that
Speaker 6: was pre computer experience, and they would sit in that
Speaker 6: room and just you know, try to solve the world's
Speaker 6: from them.
Speaker 2: Well, they're doing that at the Echos building now, and
Speaker 2: you see how that's going.
Speaker 1: Yes, what do you say to Will Danoff about the
Speaker 1: Magnificent seven from your technical.
Speaker 6: So so our analysts, you know, they and portfolio managers,
Speaker 6: they look for the winners over the long term, right
Speaker 6: the next five ten years. The way I look at it,
Speaker 6: and I've studied this extensively, you know, I've looked at
Speaker 6: the nifty to fifty phenomenon, which started back in the
Speaker 6: early seventies. So back then, you know, if you remember
Speaker 6: I was, I wasn't quite around there then yet. But
Speaker 6: you know, after the sixty eight speculative glamour stock bubble,
Speaker 6: the market, you know, fell thirty six percent. It wiped
Speaker 6: out retail, and the market was in the hands of
Speaker 6: institutional investors, and everyone got so burned by the glamour stocks.
Speaker 6: They just wanted to buy tried and true earning scrollers
Speaker 6: you know, IBM, Xerox, you know, et cetera, Coalgate, and
Speaker 6: those stocks delivered, but they ended up trading at really
Speaker 6: an extreme like they ended up trading at twice the
Speaker 6: markets valuation, so there was a two x premium and
Speaker 6: then you know, inflation happened. It wiped out valuations everywhere,
Speaker 6: and they went from twenty x to seven x by
Speaker 6: the late seventies. And then in the late nineties we
Speaker 6: had the same thing, different companies, of course, different players,
Speaker 6: but that was the dot com bubble again a two
Speaker 6: x valuation premium. The market stayed at twenty x and
Speaker 6: those nifty to fifty went from twenty to forty x.
Speaker 6: That bubble imploded on itself. Now we have again dominance
Speaker 6: by you know, mag seven. I tend to kind of
Speaker 6: still look at it as nifty to fifty, even though
Speaker 6: they were a future than fifty. But just to be consistent,
Speaker 6: the premium on the valuation size is only about thirty percent.
Speaker 6: It's not the one hundred percent that it was the
Speaker 6: last two times. So these stocks have now dominated for
Speaker 6: almost a decade, but it's been mostly justified by earnings. Yes,
Speaker 6: and that's a different take on it.
Speaker 3: So I mean the way I kind of phrase it
Speaker 3: is just tech has led this market for such a
Speaker 3: long time, and I kind of feel conditioned that if
Speaker 3: Tech's not going to lead this market, this market's not
Speaker 3: going higher. I'm not sure if that's the case, but
Speaker 3: do you still feel like tech and some of these
Speaker 3: things have to work for this market to work.
Speaker 6: So it's a nuance of overall participation in the market
Speaker 6: versus who is outperforming. Right, So last year we had
Speaker 6: the record narrowest market. Only twenty six percent of the
Speaker 6: socks and the S and P outperformed the S and P.
Speaker 6: So that's the lowest we've ever seen, but and on
Speaker 6: par with early seventies, late nineties. So the market does
Speaker 6: eventually broaden. I mean, that's just the mean reversion nature
Speaker 6: of the market. And I am in the bullish broadening
Speaker 6: camp for this year. I mean when you look at
Speaker 6: obviously S and P five cap weighted is making new
Speaker 6: highs it's at five thousand. But I look at SPW
Speaker 6: five hundred equal weighted indext to me, that's the most
Speaker 6: important chart, and that's been sitting below its all time
Speaker 6: highs now for like one hundred and seven weeks, but
Speaker 6: it's like two percent below, right, it's on the cusp.
Speaker 6: And I do think that history will tell you, right,
Speaker 6: market goes up seventy percent of the time, by about
Speaker 6: ten to eleven percent. It's the market's inherent nature to
Speaker 6: go up, So you know you want to be a
Speaker 6: bear at like with some caution because you're really fighting
Speaker 6: the odds. So to me, it's a question of the
Speaker 6: generals are leading the soldiers. Obviously, the market made a
Speaker 6: new all time high in January. January is an up months,
Speaker 6: so these things are momentum builders. So in my sense,
Speaker 6: the SPW will follow suit. The market will broaden. But
Speaker 6: that doesn't mean that other stuff will outperform the megacap growers, right,
Speaker 6: that doesn't mean the banks are going to outperform. So
Speaker 6: I don't have a good handle on who's outperforming, but
Speaker 6: I do have a sense that the market's going to
Speaker 6: broaden out. And for an investor who might have missed
Speaker 6: out the rally last year, that's kind of a second
Speaker 6: chance to still participate.
Speaker 1: You guys did sector funds. It was like resolution funds.
Speaker 1: Select excuse me, select funds. It was revolutionary. People though
Speaker 1: you're authors, can't do this. It breaks prudent maneral people
Speaker 1: over putting on their heads are spinning.
Speaker 2: They can't do that.
Speaker 1: And now it's one big sector E t F. You're
Speaker 1: in timor on how we're handling passive and active E
Speaker 1: t f's forget about bitcoin, and you know, thats just
Speaker 1: for mere mortals like me. We've become one big select fund,
Speaker 1: haven't we.
Speaker 2: It depends.
Speaker 6: I mean, there there's a fund for for everyone, right,
Speaker 6: I mean there's many of them. And you know now
Speaker 6: now even in digital assets, there are options, and I'm
Speaker 6: very proud of our our team and how well we've
Speaker 6: done in terms of launching.
Speaker 1: You think bet Dog's a legit asset.
Speaker 6: But you know, but it's it's a question of portfolio
Speaker 6: allocation and having blunt instruments versus you know, surgical tools,
Speaker 6: and it's good to have the options, and they're not
Speaker 6: for everyone. I mean, for many investors it's fine just
Speaker 6: to buy some SMP or some MSCI EPHA or world
Speaker 6: x US. But others want to get more specific, and
Speaker 6: so we can go value growth, small, large, US, non
Speaker 6: US developed, emerging, and there are areas where you want
Speaker 6: to be nuanced, like in emerging markets. You know, they're
Speaker 6: not all created equally, and so you want to be
Speaker 6: discerning there.
Speaker 1: What's the biggest mistake thirty seconds, what's the biggest mistake
Speaker 1: people make in technical analysis?
Speaker 6: They don't back test the indicators and they lose the
Speaker 6: context because without context, they're all a coin toss and
Speaker 6: so you need to have a you need to have
Speaker 6: a thesis saying okay, this is a consolidation and an
Speaker 6: up trend. If you don't make that assumption. You can
Speaker 6: never get around assumptions in our world, even though they
Speaker 6: make asses out of you and me. But you need
Speaker 6: to have some context around the indicators. Otherwise it's noise.
Speaker 2: You can could you see Belichick running money? Yeah? I
Speaker 2: mean you can't get a job coaching.
Speaker 3: Football now you can, but he can get an office.
Speaker 2: The Belichick Fund. Sure, it's fideling.
Speaker 3: It works.
Speaker 1: Urin Timmer from Boston, thank you so much, just at
Speaker 1: I can't say enough over the place about his technical work.
Speaker 1: Look out on linked in. It is the best technical
Speaker 1: work on LinkedIn. Urion Timmer t I, M M E.
Speaker 1: ER can't say enough about it. There's something that we
Speaker 1: haven't done recently. It's just been off the news radar,
Speaker 1: and that's a shock when you see what's going on
Speaker 1: in the Eastern Mediterranean. As President Biden mentioned as he
Speaker 1: walked back to the podium yesterday after the end of
Speaker 1: the press conference, there's some geopolitical risks out there and
Speaker 1: it gets you. As as Lisa was mentioning the oil
Speaker 1: prices elevated imics seventy six a barrel bread crude eighty
Speaker 1: two dollars a barrel exquisite on this is Emrita Sen.
Speaker 1: We're thrilled that she joins us.
Speaker 2: Right now.
Speaker 1: Emrita, you're just wonderful On the supply and demanding, which
Speaker 1: is most interesting right now?
Speaker 5: I'd say supply for two reasons all or we've had
Speaker 5: supply surprise to the upside last year, particularly US supplies,
Speaker 5: and that's what caused the correction in prices. Now what
Speaker 5: we're seeing is actually the market having tightened up more
Speaker 5: than people had expected. We've had inventory draws, unexpected inventory
Speaker 5: draws in January, probably looking like small draws in fab
Speaker 5: as well.
Speaker 7: Not that the Red Sea has caused supply.
Speaker 5: Outages, but it is creating a lot of stresses and
Speaker 5: strains on the supply chain.
Speaker 1: From where you said, I understand it's a global basis,
Speaker 1: But as a leader of petrol or a gallon of gas,
Speaker 1: is it going to.
Speaker 2: Be elevated over twenty twenty.
Speaker 7: Four, Yes, it will be much more than crude will be.
Speaker 5: It will very much be petrol prices and gas prices
Speaker 5: because of what we're seeing when the red sea shipping
Speaker 5: costs are very, very elevated, and what happens is therefore
Speaker 5: delivery of all these products that we consume is just
Speaker 5: going to get more expensive, and therefore we're going to
Speaker 5: have to pay more at the pump.
Speaker 3: So what's the outlook here, doctor Sen? On demand? Here?
Speaker 3: I know you know when I talk to energy folks
Speaker 3: like you, I know you have to have a clear
Speaker 3: view of not only supply but demand. I mean, I
Speaker 3: look at the European economy is a little bit weaker
Speaker 3: than people would expect, China weaker than people would like
Speaker 3: to see. So what's the demand that look?
Speaker 5: I would say demand is okay, it's not like you know,
Speaker 5: last year we had two point two million barrels, but
Speaker 5: demand growth in part because it was a post COVID
Speaker 5: recovery in China.
Speaker 7: This year we're calling for one point four but we
Speaker 7: have raised it.
Speaker 5: It has been coming in stronger than expected, particularly in
Speaker 5: the US Europe. It's, if anything, it is bottoming out.
Speaker 5: China is the worry. Right In Chinese demand hasn't been great,
Speaker 5: the property market isn't great. But again we are not
Speaker 5: expecting much out of China. We're expecting about half a
Speaker 5: million barrelspe of growth out of China, so it's in
Speaker 5: our numbers, but that would be very much the worry
Speaker 5: right now.
Speaker 3: And on the supply side the US, I mean, you know,
Speaker 3: we're obviously we're not used to being net exporters of
Speaker 3: oil here in the US, and I don't see any
Speaker 3: you know, signs that some of these producers are pulling
Speaker 3: down production.
Speaker 5: How do you view the US as a supplier of
Speaker 5: the US is continuing to grow, And yes, we had
Speaker 5: a bit of a setback because of the freeze offs,
Speaker 5: but the reality is is that we continue to we
Speaker 5: expect to see continued growth out of the US, even
Speaker 5: if it is kind of gradual increases. This year growth
Speaker 5: rates should be a lot slower than last year. Of
Speaker 5: last year, it was also boosted by M and A activity.
Speaker 5: So we're expecting about five hundred thousand bars per day
Speaker 5: of your on your growth in crude production this year
Speaker 5: out of the US versus close to a million last year,
Speaker 5: but still definitely growth.
Speaker 3: So a term that we used to talk about a
Speaker 3: lot when talking global energy was peak oil. I don't
Speaker 3: hear that very much anymore. How do you think about
Speaker 3: that big, big theme there.
Speaker 5: Depends on whether it's pea coil supply or pea col demand.
Speaker 5: I think people not talk about pe called demand a
Speaker 5: lot more, which is also not true.
Speaker 7: Look, I've never.
Speaker 5: Believed in pea coil in the sense that we always
Speaker 5: have enough reserves. It's always about the price. At what
Speaker 5: price do we exploit those reserves? Right, we're not going
Speaker 5: to run out of oil. It's but if it's at
Speaker 5: fifty dollars, fifty dollars, you're not going to exploit that.
Speaker 5: It's more that explorations getting more expensive. That's the point.
Speaker 5: Demand equally, the IA keeps talking about pea coil demand,
Speaker 5: but that hasn't been the case. And if anything, demand
Speaker 5: keeps coming in higher and higher.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well demand comes in higher and ir But the
Speaker 1: great theme for those over one hundred dollars a barrel
Speaker 1: two years ago was a Pacific rim lift that just
Speaker 1: basically developing economies. You know, I guess they care about
Speaker 1: climate change, but they're saying, let's go, let's go, let's go.
Speaker 2: And you get an EM. Demand is that still there?
Speaker 7: Oh? Em, demand is still very much there.
Speaker 5: I just got back from India today and it was
Speaker 5: there for India Energy weekend.
Speaker 7: It was absolutely massive, like Indian demand.
Speaker 5: You know, India's very much on the path that China
Speaker 5: has been in the.
Speaker 7: Past couple of decades ago.
Speaker 5: Southeast Asia, Yeah, and then there's Latin America, Africa. Yeah, absolutely,
Speaker 5: em demand is very much there.
Speaker 7: But equally oecity demand isn't really falling either.
Speaker 3: So how's the energy going to be there? The energy
Speaker 3: usage in those developing markets is it? How much of
Speaker 3: it is going to be fossil fuels versus maybe greener
Speaker 3: energy As those markets.
Speaker 5: Develop, they of course want to not create pollution if
Speaker 5: they if they can, But for their energy security and
Speaker 5: energy affordability ranks above anything else. India is really pushing
Speaker 5: hard for evs, but not because they want to get
Speaker 5: away from petroleum. It's because coal is the cheapest and
Speaker 5: most secure form of energy. EV's there will be fired
Speaker 5: by coal. I don't think it's going to actually reduce emissions,
Speaker 5: So I think we need to be very pragmatic when
Speaker 5: we talk about energy transition. I continue to believe it's
Speaker 5: a very privileged Western concept. When you don't have basic electricity,
Speaker 5: you are not actually going to care about whether the
Speaker 5: elect whether the electricity is going to be green or
Speaker 5: not and soon.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much greatly, Gally appreciate it with the
Speaker 1: energy aspects of it.
Speaker 2: Today's front page. Put the terror chips down, give us
Speaker 2: the headlines. What do you have?
Speaker 8: All right? Since we're talking food, we might as well
Speaker 8: go there. We're talking about the super Bowl. How much
Speaker 8: people are spending at home. This is from the National
Speaker 8: Retail Federation. Okay, Americans plan to spend seventeen point three
Speaker 8: billion dollars on the super Bowl. That is up one
Speaker 8: billion from last year. Okay, eighty percent of that food
Speaker 8: and drink. There's also apparel, decorations, things like that. But
Speaker 8: why is it so much higher? Here's the thing. You
Speaker 8: have this new demo coming in. You have the tailor
Speaker 8: swift crowd coming in, so now they want to have
Speaker 8: their own parties. They're pumping up spending as well, and
Speaker 8: it's changing what people are eating. Two for the super Bowl.
Speaker 8: So usually it's burgers, barbecue like that kind of thing.
Speaker 8: Now the top three items wings, which is still up there, pizza, salsa, dip,
Speaker 8: and spreads because apparently women like that better. They think
Speaker 8: it's a staple. You gotta always have chips and salsa.
Speaker 3: There's a swift angle to everything.
Speaker 8: There's a swift angle. Yes, a new demo. So the
Speaker 8: younger ones are having their own parties.
Speaker 3: Boost she like in the locker room.
Speaker 2: I mean she's like up up for the cheapsis right?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean jetting in from Tokyo.
Speaker 2: Next.
Speaker 8: All right, here we go h World Cup Finals. Because
Speaker 8: Paul you mentioned this yesterday, this article stood out for football. Yes, yes,
Speaker 8: you like this. It's coming to met life as we know.
Speaker 8: But how did the fans get there? So you asked
Speaker 8: this questions yesterday. New York Times says a couple of things.
Speaker 8: They have about two and a half years to figure
Speaker 8: this out. But it was home to the Super Bowl
Speaker 8: in twenty fourteen. If you remember that, traffic was a nightmare.
Speaker 3: It didn't work.
Speaker 8: Out very much. Yes, it did handle three Taylor Swift concerts.
Speaker 7: Okay.
Speaker 8: But here's the thing with the metal lends no direct trains,
Speaker 8: like you mentioned to New York City's from the state
Speaker 8: to the stadium. The nearest transit hub Secoccus Johnson that's
Speaker 8: a few miles away, and it's been known to sit
Speaker 8: in traffic. Given you know, when you go in the turnpike,
Speaker 8: you always gauge around when is the game? Who's playing
Speaker 8: Jets Giants home? So that's the problem. Here's what they do,
Speaker 8: State legislators. They allocated thirty five million dollars that you're
Speaker 8: going to design a dedicated transit system similar to like
Speaker 8: the Disney World's bus system, and on game days, those
Speaker 8: buses are going to travel along the back roads that's
Speaker 8: currently closed. And it's going to dedicate lanes on the
Speaker 8: New Jersey Ternpike to these buses too.
Speaker 3: So that's that's a plan. But here's my plans for
Speaker 3: a worldwide audience listening. This is from a native New
Speaker 3: Jersey who goes to MetLife Stadium for Jets and Giants games.
Speaker 3: Just take New Jersey transit. I'm telling you, it's the
Speaker 3: best way to go. It's yeah, it's ten minutes from
Speaker 3: Manhattan to secaucas You switch to secaucas and the train
Speaker 3: is five minutes to MetLife Stadium. Yes, you have to
Speaker 3: wait coming back a little bit, but you've already had
Speaker 3: a couple of Right.
Speaker 2: When when is the World Cup?
Speaker 3: Like, is it not like this two and a half years?
Speaker 1: Pharaoh says, this is like a ginormous thing. He says,
Speaker 1: America's not ready for this.
Speaker 3: It were coming from everywhere every year.
Speaker 2: Yea, yeah, and it's like, I don't know, it's all
Speaker 2: over the country.
Speaker 8: I don't know if they mean all.
Speaker 2: The time we're having breakfast or something.
Speaker 1: You know, we're over the Saint We're you just putting
Speaker 1: down a good morning, Gretto, keeper of the MX, and
Speaker 1: you know I'm putting it down with John. We're just
Speaker 1: building up a two hundred dollars tab. I don't even
Speaker 1: listen to the football talk now. I mean, you know
Speaker 1: it means but the World Cup's going to be genormous?
Speaker 2: What else? This is great? What else do you have say?
Speaker 8: Okay, Tom, you asked this question yesterday. So I found
Speaker 8: this out why paypalace strugglings out today as well? Yeah,
Speaker 8: so the Financial Times did a look into this. Apparently
Speaker 8: there's a gen Z problem. Okay. The younger generation, they
Speaker 8: like to pay with the click and their phone. You know,
Speaker 8: they just like the click and tap and that's what
Speaker 8: they like. So they like Apple Pay, you know, they
Speaker 8: like those autofill payments. They like buy now pay later
Speaker 8: services like Affirm and after pay. They like that. Three
Speaker 8: quarters global iPhone users used Apple Pay in twenty two,
Speaker 8: nearly one third of them were between the ages of
Speaker 8: eighteen to twenty nine. So you see that big group there.
Speaker 8: Fifty prefer PayPal. Well they're forty five years and older,
Speaker 8: so that's a group and PayPal. I didn't realize. But
Speaker 8: they do have Venmo. But the problem is that they
Speaker 8: can't monetize it because you can't charge people to use
Speaker 8: Venmo because Zell's for free.
Speaker 1: So it's competitive that I mean, Brian Moinian has been
Speaker 1: very clear on this Bank of American Earnings. The zel
Speaker 1: growth they feature in their power point when you come
Speaker 1: out with their earnings is right, this whole digital thing.
Speaker 2: I'm still writing checks at home. I'm the last person. Really, Yeah,
Speaker 2: I dipped the quill in. I forgot, I got.
Speaker 1: I got the old far checks for the blind. You
Speaker 1: know they're great, and you know you put only and
Speaker 1: you know that I'm not going to do Venmo to
Speaker 1: write a tuition check, you know.
Speaker 3: I mean they make it so easy to pay tuition.
Speaker 2: Oh they do.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 3: Penn State University was the absolute best. They were on
Speaker 3: par with Amazon. Literally one click and then twenty five
Speaker 3: grand right out of your account. One click.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they know what they're doing. It's just a whole
Speaker 2: new world. After all, go go back and have some
Speaker 2: vegetable chips.
Speaker 1: Taylor, Lisao, Lisa Mateo.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much.
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