1 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:08,639 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 2 00:00:08,680 --> 00:00:12,040 Speaker 1: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 3 00:00:12,039 --> 00:00:16,240 Speaker 1: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 4 00:00:16,239 --> 00:00:19,599 Speaker 1: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 5 00:00:19,600 --> 00:00:24,360 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 6 00:00:24,360 --> 00:00:27,400 Speaker 1: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 7 00:00:27,440 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 8 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:36,000 Speaker 1: or anywhere else you listen, and always I Bloomberg Radio, 9 00:00:36,200 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. I'm going 10 00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:40,120 Speaker 1: to sell? 11 00:00:40,200 --> 00:00:41,360 Speaker 2: Can I sell a newsletter? 12 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:41,920 Speaker 3: Sure? 13 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: Your Denny Quick Takes, folks, and we protect the copyright religiously. 14 00:00:47,040 --> 00:00:47,880 Speaker 2: Of our guests. 15 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:52,320 Speaker 1: That's rule number one at Bloomberg Surveillance. Your Denny Quick 16 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 1: Takes It comes in your feed in its blindingly CJ. 17 00:00:56,880 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 1: Lawrence short and to the point. And whether you agree 18 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: or disagree with doctor Yardanny, it frames an assists. 19 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:07,480 Speaker 2: You in your equity belief. 20 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 1: Why don't you bring in Paul the guy who tells 21 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:12,559 Speaker 1: me I'm living the Roaring twenties. 22 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:15,039 Speaker 3: Exactly right, Ed Yard Denny. He is a president founder 23 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 3: of a Yard Denny Research thanks so much for taking 24 00:01:19,080 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 3: the time to join us. 25 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:20,000 Speaker 1: Year. 26 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:22,080 Speaker 3: I think a lot of people are looking at the 27 00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:25,600 Speaker 3: economic data we've been getting over the last several weeks, 28 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 3: looking at the earnings we're now parsing through here over 29 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:30,440 Speaker 3: the last couple weeks, and trying to get a sense 30 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:35,320 Speaker 3: of where we go with this market here, How are 31 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 3: you framing all that data? How are you putting it 32 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:39,480 Speaker 3: in your model and coming out with kind of a 33 00:01:39,600 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 3: view here. 34 00:01:40,840 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 4: Well, it's been a go go market. I mean, it 35 00:01:43,040 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 4: just keeps going. Certainly hasn't paused this year. It's been 36 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 4: straight up actually since October of last year. We had 37 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 4: a bit of a correction from August October last year, 38 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 4: but it's also been more or less straight up with 39 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:03,720 Speaker 4: a brief ten percent correction since October of twenty twenty two. 40 00:02:03,800 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 4: So it's been a phenomenal bull market. 41 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:09,520 Speaker 3: And Tom, for those are viewers on YouTube, that is 42 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 3: a bookshelf. I have like three books on my body. 43 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:14,400 Speaker 3: Doctor Denny has a bookshelf. 44 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:17,799 Speaker 2: Excuse me. The blue button. The blue button is a 45 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:20,960 Speaker 2: Detroit Lions button. Thank you your Dennis got up there. 46 00:02:21,080 --> 00:02:24,320 Speaker 2: Every book Robert Schiller's ever written, that's what it is. 47 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 3: So Ed I mean, one of the things that I 48 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:28,639 Speaker 3: think concerns that you know some people have now is 49 00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:30,880 Speaker 3: just boy, is if we've gone a little bit too far, 50 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 3: too fast over the last three to four months, because 51 00:02:34,120 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 3: I haven't seen earnings necessarily follow the performance of some 52 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:38,200 Speaker 3: of these risk assets. 53 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 4: Well, we've seen earnings turning out to be surprisingly good 54 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 4: for the megacap eight. Those stocks have done quite well, 55 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,399 Speaker 4: and we've seen as a result of that, we've seen 56 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:51,880 Speaker 4: these stocks do. 57 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 2: Very very well. 58 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:56,799 Speaker 4: But overall, the economy is doing very well, and earning 59 00:02:56,880 --> 00:02:59,040 Speaker 4: is I think are going to be something like two 60 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,920 Speaker 4: hundred and fifty dollars per share for the S and 61 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:04,920 Speaker 4: P five hundred this year, and that would be up 62 00:03:04,960 --> 00:03:07,239 Speaker 4: from two twenty last year. 63 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:09,240 Speaker 2: And then beyond that, I. 64 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:13,840 Speaker 4: Think we'll see earnings continue to grow into twenty five 65 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 4: and twenty twenty six. You don't see your recession. I 66 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:17,280 Speaker 4: think it keeps going. 67 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 1: Edgar Denny with us here for the entire half hour. 68 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 1: We're going to take a break in the middle of 69 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:25,160 Speaker 1: it to pay for Lisa Mitato's Super Bowl gluten free 70 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:28,640 Speaker 1: veggie chips. But other than that, Edgiar Denny with us 71 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 1: for this half hour. Ed I want to frame out 72 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:35,440 Speaker 1: the shock sixty days ago where you said we're going 73 00:03:35,480 --> 00:03:39,000 Speaker 1: to fifty four hundred SPX, I did the fancy math 74 00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:41,320 Speaker 1: and got the Dow Jones Industrial average out to forty 75 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 1: three thousand. On that number, do you get any sense 76 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 1: that there's Schillarian exuberance out there? Are we getting a 77 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:52,839 Speaker 1: Robert Shiller Alan Greenspan irrational exuberance? 78 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 2: I don't feel it. 79 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:59,120 Speaker 4: I think we've got exuberance for sure, and then it's 80 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 4: debatable whether it's irrational. Yet right now it looks like 81 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 4: rational exuberance. We still have a lot of money just 82 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 4: parked on the side earning money market funds. We got 83 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 4: something like six trillion dollars just in money market funds, 84 00:04:12,440 --> 00:04:16,680 Speaker 4: So money isn't exactly pouring out of short term assets. 85 00:04:16,880 --> 00:04:20,919 Speaker 2: Yes, I don't see the market well quickly or is 86 00:04:20,920 --> 00:04:21,440 Speaker 2: it going to go? 87 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 1: Is the money market fund going to support the yard 88 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:26,560 Speaker 1: Denny fifty four hundred SPX? 89 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:31,479 Speaker 4: Well, fifty four hundred, it doesn't look so amazing anymore. Yeah, 90 00:04:31,760 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 4: that's why I'm talking about six thousand by the end 91 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 4: of next year. There, fifty four hundred isn't as impressive 92 00:04:38,240 --> 00:04:40,159 Speaker 4: as six thousand by the In the next year. Given 93 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:42,279 Speaker 4: how much territory we've covered. 94 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:45,120 Speaker 1: Ed your Denny with us, I can't say enough about 95 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:47,320 Speaker 1: his researcher comes in different platforms. 96 00:04:47,800 --> 00:04:50,440 Speaker 2: Your Denny Quick Takes is worth its weight in gold. 97 00:04:50,480 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 1: It's short, short, short, focused, and it synthesizes in his 98 00:04:54,520 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 1: Yell economics all of his work on Wall Street over 99 00:04:57,080 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 1: the decades into a call optimism in the American economic 100 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:06,479 Speaker 1: experiment to wit and I go back to what I 101 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 1: call the yard Denny and campoora low two giants ed 102 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:15,280 Speaker 1: Yard Denny and the technical analyst Ralph and Campora lonely 103 00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:19,480 Speaker 1: in October of twenty twenty two. And to get up 104 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:23,480 Speaker 1: to the Dow equivalent forty six thousand, which is ed 105 00:05:23,560 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 1: Yard Denny's SPX six thousand, is a lift of sixty 106 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:32,240 Speaker 1: one percent, Doctor yardnny. Is that a normal lift out 107 00:05:32,240 --> 00:05:36,039 Speaker 1: of an angst time when everybody's gloomy is up sixty percent? 108 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 2: Normal? 109 00:05:37,839 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 4: Well, it doesn't come with a money back guarantee. I mean, 110 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:43,919 Speaker 4: we always have risk in our forecasts, and we have 111 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:47,680 Speaker 4: to acknowledge that there are risks or geopolitical risks. There's 112 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:50,560 Speaker 4: always the risk that the price of oil spikes up again. 113 00:05:50,640 --> 00:05:54,040 Speaker 4: But my base case is what I call a Roaring 114 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 4: twenty twenties. It does rhyme with the Roaring nineteen twenties. 115 00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 4: And in this case, I think the technology innovations that 116 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:05,720 Speaker 4: are out there to boost productivity are already working. There's 117 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:09,960 Speaker 4: a significant shortage of vibor in our country's skill labor 118 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:13,919 Speaker 4: and technology is going to solve that problem on productivity. 119 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:18,200 Speaker 1: And again, the Mobson Callahan Morgan Stanley essay is brilliant, 120 00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:20,720 Speaker 1: and it's February and it's already my essay here. 121 00:06:20,839 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 2: What's that about? 122 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 1: Maybe subject change, but on productivity at JR. Danny, it's 123 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 1: about corporations adapting right, there's layoffs, there's right sizing, and 124 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,120 Speaker 1: that it's not about cost cutting. 125 00:06:33,120 --> 00:06:35,040 Speaker 2: What's it about a new efficiency? 126 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 4: I think it's exactly about a new efficiency. It's technology led. 127 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:41,839 Speaker 4: It doesn't mean that people are going to lose their jobs. 128 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:44,279 Speaker 4: I mean there is always churn in our labor market. 129 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:47,640 Speaker 4: We are saying in some of these technology companies cutting 130 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:51,599 Speaker 4: back in areas where they just don't see much upside anymore. 131 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 4: But I think most of those people are going to 132 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:57,400 Speaker 4: find jobs very very quickly. They're very skilled, and there's 133 00:06:57,440 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 4: a real shortage of skilled workers. I think what the 134 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:05,080 Speaker 4: chnology does is it augments the productivity of workers and 135 00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 4: therefore allows for the economy to grow more quickly. The 136 00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 4: labor force has only been growing around one percent or 137 00:07:11,800 --> 00:07:14,720 Speaker 4: less over the past few years. And that's all we 138 00:07:14,800 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 4: have to look forward to with real GDP if there's 139 00:07:17,120 --> 00:07:21,880 Speaker 4: no productivity growth. But companies and businesses and entrepreneurs are 140 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 4: aspirational and they are going to use technology to increase productivity. 141 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,840 Speaker 4: And it's already happening. We had an amazing three quarters 142 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 4: last year. Last three quarters, productivity was extremely strong. 143 00:07:32,600 --> 00:07:32,840 Speaker 2: Yeah. 144 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 4: For the years aholl it was two point seven percent 145 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:36,520 Speaker 4: and Paul, the world was coming to an end. 146 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, And that's amazing how productive folks were, even 147 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 3: from the comforts of their own home. So ed one 148 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 3: of the big drivers or one of the big investment 149 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 3: themes in twenty twenty three, which looks like it's continuing 150 00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 3: into twenty twenty four, is this whole concept of artificial 151 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 3: intelligence AI. It's not just the Magnificent seven. It seems 152 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 3: like every company in the S and P five hundred 153 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:59,400 Speaker 3: mentions AI multiple times during their quarterly earnings calls, what 154 00:07:59,480 --> 00:08:01,480 Speaker 3: do you make this? You've seen technologies come and go. 155 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:03,680 Speaker 3: You've seen waves come and go. What do you think 156 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:04,360 Speaker 3: of this AI thing? 157 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 4: Well, I should really be embracing it as a confirmation 158 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 4: of my roaring twenty twenties outlook, But I don't know. 159 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:16,520 Speaker 4: I'm agnostic on it. I want to see more evidence 160 00:08:16,560 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 4: that it actually is making a huge difference. I'm still 161 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:23,080 Speaker 4: trying to have a conversation with Siri, and Siri you 162 00:08:23,080 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 4: can only ask her one question at a time. You 163 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:28,720 Speaker 4: can't ask you to book you theater tickets or order 164 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:33,680 Speaker 4: dinner for you. So I'm wondering if Apple and Google 165 00:08:33,720 --> 00:08:38,199 Speaker 4: couldn't get their personal assistance to really be interactive. I'm 166 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:40,960 Speaker 4: kind of wondering whether a lot of this may be 167 00:08:41,360 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 4: artificial but not really intelligent, just quite yet. Look, it 168 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 4: is a statistical model. It's kind of like when you 169 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 4: sit down to write on word and the thing anticipates if. 170 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:54,400 Speaker 2: You write prod. 171 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:57,040 Speaker 4: It says, oh, you want productivity, and then you say, yes, 172 00:08:58,440 --> 00:08:59,080 Speaker 4: I will get it. 173 00:08:59,200 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 1: Partly in Twitter, it is a spectacular Bloomberg BusinessWeek effort 174 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 1: by Ashley Vance on artificial intelligence. And they have taken 175 00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,080 Speaker 1: scrolls in the old world. 176 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 2: They're all clay. 177 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 1: They're looking firewood logs, and they're using computers to read 178 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:22,880 Speaker 1: the scrolls, which they believe have never before seen. Classics 179 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:26,080 Speaker 1: like from Aristotle, really like Plato. 180 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 2: Sounds like from Dr Denny. It's a good story. 181 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 1: We hope to have mister Vance on next week if 182 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: his people will agree with our people continue. 183 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 3: Hey, Ed, you know one of the things we've I 184 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:37,800 Speaker 3: think a lot of investors have become I guess used 185 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 3: to or expect, and they expect the tech sector to 186 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 3: drive this market, to pull this market higher. Is that 187 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 3: still the case? It seems like it with these magnificent 188 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:51,080 Speaker 3: seven And if so, that is that okay for this market? 189 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 4: Well, there's this perception that that's not a legitimate little 190 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:57,480 Speaker 4: market because it's been very concentrated. It's been led by 191 00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:00,199 Speaker 4: only seven or eight stocks, whether you know. I like 192 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:03,240 Speaker 4: to talk about the megacap eight because I watch a 193 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:05,080 Speaker 4: lot of Netflix, so I throw that in there with 194 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 4: a magnificent seven. But yeah, I think technology continues to 195 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 4: lead the way. Semiconductors have been on fire, and I 196 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,599 Speaker 4: think they continue to do extremely well. But as you 197 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:20,240 Speaker 4: sort of mentioned, every company is mentioning AI these days. 198 00:10:20,280 --> 00:10:23,320 Speaker 4: I think every company is a technology company. You either 199 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 4: make it or you use it. If you don't use it, 200 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:27,600 Speaker 4: you lose it, you go out of business. You have 201 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 4: to use technology. What's really amazing about technology today is 202 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 4: it's really focuses on augmenting the brain. It used to 203 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:38,600 Speaker 4: be all about productivity, used to be all about augmenting 204 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 4: the brawn of humans. Now we're talking about the brain 205 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:45,120 Speaker 4: of humans, and we've a potential of. 206 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:49,439 Speaker 2: That is awesome. How did bull markets end badly? 207 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 4: I mean, you know there is a potential here for 208 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:56,280 Speaker 4: something as we as you mentioned before of the nineteen 209 00:10:56,400 --> 00:11:01,320 Speaker 4: ninety nineteen nineties. If there's a stock today that reminds 210 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 4: me of Cisco, it's in video, and video made a 211 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 4: lot of money on gaming chips. Then it became a 212 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:10,839 Speaker 4: bitcoin mining and now it's it's AI, and these are 213 00:11:10,880 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 4: all legitimate sources of income. The stock has been on 214 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 4: fire for good reasons. Earnings have been very strong. But 215 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:23,839 Speaker 4: Cisco went to the moon and then back, even though 216 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 4: it made a lot of equipment for the Internet, and 217 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:30,240 Speaker 4: the Internet certainly survived and thrived, and I think AI 218 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 4: will survive and thrive. But I think it is a 219 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 4: little bit more hype than that then is justified for 220 00:11:37,640 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 4: what it can deliver just yet, Paul, what. 221 00:11:39,480 --> 00:11:41,080 Speaker 2: Do you make of that? I mean, well, here's I 222 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:42,680 Speaker 2: love the Cisco warning. 223 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:46,839 Speaker 3: But here's another alum from CJ. Lawrence. I mean, pound 224 00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 3: for pound. If people don't know, go back and google 225 00:11:48,640 --> 00:11:50,440 Speaker 3: that pound for pound. That was some of the best 226 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:52,439 Speaker 3: research coming out of Wall Street for a long period 227 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 3: of time. 228 00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:53,439 Speaker 5: C J. 229 00:11:53,559 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 3: Lawrence. 230 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:56,040 Speaker 1: Back, it was printed back in the day, Back in 231 00:11:56,040 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 1: the day, folks, that weren't PDFs, and it was tactile, 232 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:02,679 Speaker 1: and it was visceral. There was paper and you had 233 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:06,479 Speaker 1: a pencil. And I'm sorry, Paul, I thought that oftentimes. 234 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:07,960 Speaker 1: I think that's way more valuable. 235 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:20,320 Speaker 2: You're in Timer joins us in the studio today. 236 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 1: What did the charts say about the Magnificent seven? Will 237 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:31,240 Speaker 1: Danoff as twelve thirteen percent of his portfolio in meta Facebook? 238 00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 1: What do your charts say to Countrafund? 239 00:12:35,160 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 6: Good morning? And by the way, the charvelroom really used 240 00:12:38,679 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 6: to be like a war room back in the day, 241 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:46,440 Speaker 6: preceding even Ned Johnson, but his father, mister Johnson, and 242 00:12:46,520 --> 00:12:50,080 Speaker 6: that's where they would just you know, strategize because that 243 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 6: was pre computer experience, and they would sit in that 244 00:12:53,559 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 6: room and just you know, try to solve the world's 245 00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 6: from them. 246 00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 2: Well, they're doing that at the Echos building now, and 247 00:12:58,440 --> 00:12:59,480 Speaker 2: you see how that's going. 248 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:01,679 Speaker 1: Yes, what do you say to Will Danoff about the 249 00:13:01,760 --> 00:13:04,440 Speaker 1: Magnificent seven from your technical. 250 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 6: So so our analysts, you know, they and portfolio managers, 251 00:13:08,360 --> 00:13:11,600 Speaker 6: they look for the winners over the long term, right 252 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:15,600 Speaker 6: the next five ten years. The way I look at it, 253 00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 6: and I've studied this extensively, you know, I've looked at 254 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:22,440 Speaker 6: the nifty to fifty phenomenon, which started back in the 255 00:13:22,480 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 6: early seventies. So back then, you know, if you remember 256 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 6: I was, I wasn't quite around there then yet. But 257 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:33,640 Speaker 6: you know, after the sixty eight speculative glamour stock bubble, 258 00:13:33,720 --> 00:13:36,960 Speaker 6: the market, you know, fell thirty six percent. It wiped 259 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:40,480 Speaker 6: out retail, and the market was in the hands of 260 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 6: institutional investors, and everyone got so burned by the glamour stocks. 261 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 6: They just wanted to buy tried and true earning scrollers 262 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:52,640 Speaker 6: you know, IBM, Xerox, you know, et cetera, Coalgate, and 263 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:56,640 Speaker 6: those stocks delivered, but they ended up trading at really 264 00:13:56,679 --> 00:13:59,200 Speaker 6: an extreme like they ended up trading at twice the 265 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:04,320 Speaker 6: markets valuation, so there was a two x premium and 266 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:08,000 Speaker 6: then you know, inflation happened. It wiped out valuations everywhere, 267 00:14:08,760 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 6: and they went from twenty x to seven x by 268 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 6: the late seventies. And then in the late nineties we 269 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:16,080 Speaker 6: had the same thing, different companies, of course, different players, 270 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:19,280 Speaker 6: but that was the dot com bubble again a two 271 00:14:19,520 --> 00:14:23,120 Speaker 6: x valuation premium. The market stayed at twenty x and 272 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:25,880 Speaker 6: those nifty to fifty went from twenty to forty x. 273 00:14:25,920 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 6: That bubble imploded on itself. Now we have again dominance 274 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 6: by you know, mag seven. I tend to kind of 275 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 6: still look at it as nifty to fifty, even though 276 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:38,000 Speaker 6: they were a future than fifty. But just to be consistent, 277 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 6: the premium on the valuation size is only about thirty percent. 278 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 6: It's not the one hundred percent that it was the 279 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:47,760 Speaker 6: last two times. So these stocks have now dominated for 280 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:51,440 Speaker 6: almost a decade, but it's been mostly justified by earnings. Yes, 281 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:53,920 Speaker 6: and that's a different take on it. 282 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:56,680 Speaker 3: So I mean the way I kind of phrase it 283 00:14:56,720 --> 00:15:00,400 Speaker 3: is just tech has led this market for such a 284 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 3: long time, and I kind of feel conditioned that if 285 00:15:03,520 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 3: Tech's not going to lead this market, this market's not 286 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:07,720 Speaker 3: going higher. I'm not sure if that's the case, but 287 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 3: do you still feel like tech and some of these 288 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 3: things have to work for this market to work. 289 00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:18,240 Speaker 6: So it's a nuance of overall participation in the market 290 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 6: versus who is outperforming. Right, So last year we had 291 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:26,520 Speaker 6: the record narrowest market. Only twenty six percent of the 292 00:15:26,560 --> 00:15:28,960 Speaker 6: socks and the S and P outperformed the S and P. 293 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:31,600 Speaker 6: So that's the lowest we've ever seen, but and on 294 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 6: par with early seventies, late nineties. So the market does 295 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 6: eventually broaden. I mean, that's just the mean reversion nature 296 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:41,680 Speaker 6: of the market. And I am in the bullish broadening 297 00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:43,640 Speaker 6: camp for this year. I mean when you look at 298 00:15:43,680 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 6: obviously S and P five cap weighted is making new 299 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 6: highs it's at five thousand. But I look at SPW 300 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 6: five hundred equal weighted indext to me, that's the most 301 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 6: important chart, and that's been sitting below its all time 302 00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 6: highs now for like one hundred and seven weeks, but 303 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:04,200 Speaker 6: it's like two percent below, right, it's on the cusp. 304 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 6: And I do think that history will tell you, right, 305 00:16:07,400 --> 00:16:10,480 Speaker 6: market goes up seventy percent of the time, by about 306 00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:14,520 Speaker 6: ten to eleven percent. It's the market's inherent nature to 307 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:17,400 Speaker 6: go up, So you know you want to be a 308 00:16:17,400 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 6: bear at like with some caution because you're really fighting 309 00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:23,800 Speaker 6: the odds. So to me, it's a question of the 310 00:16:23,880 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 6: generals are leading the soldiers. Obviously, the market made a 311 00:16:27,360 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 6: new all time high in January. January is an up months, 312 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 6: so these things are momentum builders. So in my sense, 313 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:38,240 Speaker 6: the SPW will follow suit. The market will broaden. But 314 00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:43,840 Speaker 6: that doesn't mean that other stuff will outperform the megacap growers, right, 315 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:46,040 Speaker 6: that doesn't mean the banks are going to outperform. So 316 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:48,520 Speaker 6: I don't have a good handle on who's outperforming, but 317 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 6: I do have a sense that the market's going to 318 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 6: broaden out. And for an investor who might have missed 319 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 6: out the rally last year, that's kind of a second 320 00:16:57,440 --> 00:16:58,960 Speaker 6: chance to still participate. 321 00:16:59,880 --> 00:17:03,400 Speaker 1: You guys did sector funds. It was like resolution funds. 322 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:07,120 Speaker 1: Select excuse me, select funds. It was revolutionary. People though 323 00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:10,359 Speaker 1: you're authors, can't do this. It breaks prudent maneral people 324 00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:11,879 Speaker 1: over putting on their heads are spinning. 325 00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:12,720 Speaker 2: They can't do that. 326 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:16,800 Speaker 1: And now it's one big sector E t F. You're 327 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 1: in timor on how we're handling passive and active E 328 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:24,040 Speaker 1: t f's forget about bitcoin, and you know, thats just 329 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:27,960 Speaker 1: for mere mortals like me. We've become one big select fund, 330 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:28,399 Speaker 1: haven't we. 331 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 2: It depends. 332 00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 6: I mean, there there's a fund for for everyone, right, 333 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 6: I mean there's many of them. And you know now 334 00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:39,920 Speaker 6: now even in digital assets, there are options, and I'm 335 00:17:40,040 --> 00:17:42,399 Speaker 6: very proud of our our team and how well we've 336 00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 6: done in terms of launching. 337 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 1: You think bet Dog's a legit asset. 338 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:51,120 Speaker 6: But you know, but it's it's a question of portfolio 339 00:17:51,160 --> 00:17:57,720 Speaker 6: allocation and having blunt instruments versus you know, surgical tools, 340 00:17:57,720 --> 00:18:00,359 Speaker 6: and it's good to have the options, and they're not 341 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:03,919 Speaker 6: for everyone. I mean, for many investors it's fine just 342 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:07,720 Speaker 6: to buy some SMP or some MSCI EPHA or world 343 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:11,520 Speaker 6: x US. But others want to get more specific, and 344 00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 6: so we can go value growth, small, large, US, non 345 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:18,560 Speaker 6: US developed, emerging, and there are areas where you want 346 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:20,680 Speaker 6: to be nuanced, like in emerging markets. You know, they're 347 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:23,439 Speaker 6: not all created equally, and so you want to be 348 00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:24,359 Speaker 6: discerning there. 349 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:28,000 Speaker 1: What's the biggest mistake thirty seconds, what's the biggest mistake 350 00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:30,159 Speaker 1: people make in technical analysis? 351 00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:36,080 Speaker 6: They don't back test the indicators and they lose the 352 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,960 Speaker 6: context because without context, they're all a coin toss and 353 00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:41,800 Speaker 6: so you need to have a you need to have 354 00:18:41,840 --> 00:18:44,960 Speaker 6: a thesis saying okay, this is a consolidation and an 355 00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 6: up trend. If you don't make that assumption. You can 356 00:18:47,720 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 6: never get around assumptions in our world, even though they 357 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:53,640 Speaker 6: make asses out of you and me. But you need 358 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,880 Speaker 6: to have some context around the indicators. Otherwise it's noise. 359 00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:00,919 Speaker 2: You can could you see Belichick running money? Yeah? I 360 00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:02,440 Speaker 2: mean you can't get a job coaching. 361 00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,480 Speaker 3: Football now you can, but he can get an office. 362 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:06,600 Speaker 2: The Belichick Fund. Sure, it's fideling. 363 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:07,159 Speaker 3: It works. 364 00:19:07,520 --> 00:19:10,840 Speaker 1: Urin Timmer from Boston, thank you so much, just at 365 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:14,240 Speaker 1: I can't say enough over the place about his technical work. 366 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 1: Look out on linked in. It is the best technical 367 00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:21,359 Speaker 1: work on LinkedIn. Urion Timmer t I, M M E. 368 00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:27,440 Speaker 1: ER can't say enough about it. There's something that we 369 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 1: haven't done recently. It's just been off the news radar, 370 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:32,439 Speaker 1: and that's a shock when you see what's going on 371 00:19:32,480 --> 00:19:35,919 Speaker 1: in the Eastern Mediterranean. As President Biden mentioned as he 372 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:38,240 Speaker 1: walked back to the podium yesterday after the end of 373 00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:42,679 Speaker 1: the press conference, there's some geopolitical risks out there and 374 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:44,880 Speaker 1: it gets you. As as Lisa was mentioning the oil 375 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:48,880 Speaker 1: prices elevated imics seventy six a barrel bread crude eighty 376 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 1: two dollars a barrel exquisite on this is Emrita Sen. 377 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:54,920 Speaker 1: We're thrilled that she joins us. 378 00:19:55,880 --> 00:19:56,399 Speaker 2: Right now. 379 00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 1: Emrita, you're just wonderful On the supply and demanding, which 380 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,359 Speaker 1: is most interesting right now? 381 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:08,200 Speaker 5: I'd say supply for two reasons all or we've had 382 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:12,960 Speaker 5: supply surprise to the upside last year, particularly US supplies, 383 00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 5: and that's what caused the correction in prices. Now what 384 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:20,560 Speaker 5: we're seeing is actually the market having tightened up more 385 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:24,800 Speaker 5: than people had expected. We've had inventory draws, unexpected inventory 386 00:20:24,880 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 5: draws in January, probably looking like small draws in fab 387 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:29,120 Speaker 5: as well. 388 00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 7: Not that the Red Sea has caused supply. 389 00:20:31,560 --> 00:20:34,639 Speaker 5: Outages, but it is creating a lot of stresses and 390 00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:36,720 Speaker 5: strains on the supply chain. 391 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:39,920 Speaker 1: From where you said, I understand it's a global basis, 392 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,400 Speaker 1: But as a leader of petrol or a gallon of gas, 393 00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:44,120 Speaker 1: is it going to. 394 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:46,399 Speaker 2: Be elevated over twenty twenty. 395 00:20:46,160 --> 00:20:49,119 Speaker 7: Four, Yes, it will be much more than crude will be. 396 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:52,200 Speaker 5: It will very much be petrol prices and gas prices 397 00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:55,959 Speaker 5: because of what we're seeing when the red sea shipping 398 00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 5: costs are very, very elevated, and what happens is therefore 399 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:02,399 Speaker 5: delivery of all these products that we consume is just 400 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 5: going to get more expensive, and therefore we're going to 401 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 5: have to pay more at the pump. 402 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 3: So what's the outlook here, doctor Sen? On demand? Here? 403 00:21:11,040 --> 00:21:12,920 Speaker 3: I know you know when I talk to energy folks 404 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:14,520 Speaker 3: like you, I know you have to have a clear 405 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:17,560 Speaker 3: view of not only supply but demand. I mean, I 406 00:21:17,600 --> 00:21:19,440 Speaker 3: look at the European economy is a little bit weaker 407 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 3: than people would expect, China weaker than people would like 408 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:24,280 Speaker 3: to see. So what's the demand that look? 409 00:21:25,040 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 5: I would say demand is okay, it's not like you know, 410 00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:30,480 Speaker 5: last year we had two point two million barrels, but 411 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:33,439 Speaker 5: demand growth in part because it was a post COVID 412 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:34,359 Speaker 5: recovery in China. 413 00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 7: This year we're calling for one point four but we 414 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 7: have raised it. 415 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 5: It has been coming in stronger than expected, particularly in 416 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 5: the US Europe. It's, if anything, it is bottoming out. 417 00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 5: China is the worry. Right In Chinese demand hasn't been great, 418 00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:51,399 Speaker 5: the property market isn't great. But again we are not 419 00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 5: expecting much out of China. We're expecting about half a 420 00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:57,640 Speaker 5: million barrelspe of growth out of China, so it's in 421 00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 5: our numbers, but that would be very much the worry 422 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:00,520 Speaker 5: right now. 423 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 3: And on the supply side the US, I mean, you know, 424 00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,800 Speaker 3: we're obviously we're not used to being net exporters of 425 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:10,680 Speaker 3: oil here in the US, and I don't see any 426 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:13,840 Speaker 3: you know, signs that some of these producers are pulling 427 00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:15,120 Speaker 3: down production. 428 00:22:15,200 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 5: How do you view the US as a supplier of 429 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 5: the US is continuing to grow, And yes, we had 430 00:22:20,600 --> 00:22:23,040 Speaker 5: a bit of a setback because of the freeze offs, 431 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,919 Speaker 5: but the reality is is that we continue to we 432 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:29,359 Speaker 5: expect to see continued growth out of the US, even 433 00:22:29,400 --> 00:22:32,680 Speaker 5: if it is kind of gradual increases. This year growth 434 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:34,560 Speaker 5: rates should be a lot slower than last year. Of 435 00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:36,920 Speaker 5: last year, it was also boosted by M and A activity. 436 00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:40,040 Speaker 5: So we're expecting about five hundred thousand bars per day 437 00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,080 Speaker 5: of your on your growth in crude production this year 438 00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:44,480 Speaker 5: out of the US versus close to a million last year, 439 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:46,479 Speaker 5: but still definitely growth. 440 00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:49,000 Speaker 3: So a term that we used to talk about a 441 00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:52,840 Speaker 3: lot when talking global energy was peak oil. I don't 442 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:56,760 Speaker 3: hear that very much anymore. How do you think about 443 00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:58,280 Speaker 3: that big, big theme there. 444 00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:01,880 Speaker 5: Depends on whether it's pea coil supply or pea col demand. 445 00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:03,720 Speaker 5: I think people not talk about pe called demand a 446 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:05,400 Speaker 5: lot more, which is also not true. 447 00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:07,159 Speaker 7: Look, I've never. 448 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:08,879 Speaker 5: Believed in pea coil in the sense that we always 449 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:12,080 Speaker 5: have enough reserves. It's always about the price. At what 450 00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,080 Speaker 5: price do we exploit those reserves? Right, we're not going 451 00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 5: to run out of oil. It's but if it's at 452 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,080 Speaker 5: fifty dollars, fifty dollars, you're not going to exploit that. 453 00:23:19,119 --> 00:23:22,159 Speaker 5: It's more that explorations getting more expensive. That's the point. 454 00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,479 Speaker 5: Demand equally, the IA keeps talking about pea coil demand, 455 00:23:25,560 --> 00:23:27,920 Speaker 5: but that hasn't been the case. And if anything, demand 456 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:29,439 Speaker 5: keeps coming in higher and higher. 457 00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:31,359 Speaker 1: Yeah, well demand comes in higher and ir But the 458 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,560 Speaker 1: great theme for those over one hundred dollars a barrel 459 00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:36,919 Speaker 1: two years ago was a Pacific rim lift that just 460 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:42,200 Speaker 1: basically developing economies. You know, I guess they care about 461 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 1: climate change, but they're saying, let's go, let's go, let's go. 462 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,280 Speaker 2: And you get an EM. Demand is that still there? 463 00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 7: Oh? Em, demand is still very much there. 464 00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 5: I just got back from India today and it was 465 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:54,000 Speaker 5: there for India Energy weekend. 466 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,359 Speaker 7: It was absolutely massive, like Indian demand. 467 00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,520 Speaker 5: You know, India's very much on the path that China 468 00:23:58,560 --> 00:23:59,640 Speaker 5: has been in the. 469 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:01,160 Speaker 7: Past couple of decades ago. 470 00:24:01,520 --> 00:24:04,960 Speaker 5: Southeast Asia, Yeah, and then there's Latin America, Africa. Yeah, absolutely, 471 00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:06,720 Speaker 5: em demand is very much there. 472 00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:08,960 Speaker 7: But equally oecity demand isn't really falling either. 473 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,600 Speaker 3: So how's the energy going to be there? The energy 474 00:24:12,680 --> 00:24:15,960 Speaker 3: usage in those developing markets is it? How much of 475 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:19,160 Speaker 3: it is going to be fossil fuels versus maybe greener 476 00:24:19,320 --> 00:24:21,160 Speaker 3: energy As those markets. 477 00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:25,840 Speaker 5: Develop, they of course want to not create pollution if 478 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 5: they if they can, But for their energy security and 479 00:24:28,640 --> 00:24:33,719 Speaker 5: energy affordability ranks above anything else. India is really pushing 480 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:35,959 Speaker 5: hard for evs, but not because they want to get 481 00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:38,840 Speaker 5: away from petroleum. It's because coal is the cheapest and 482 00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:41,440 Speaker 5: most secure form of energy. EV's there will be fired 483 00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:43,919 Speaker 5: by coal. I don't think it's going to actually reduce emissions, 484 00:24:44,520 --> 00:24:46,320 Speaker 5: So I think we need to be very pragmatic when 485 00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,439 Speaker 5: we talk about energy transition. I continue to believe it's 486 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,880 Speaker 5: a very privileged Western concept. When you don't have basic electricity, 487 00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:54,960 Speaker 5: you are not actually going to care about whether the 488 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:56,960 Speaker 5: elect whether the electricity is going to be green or 489 00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 5: not and soon. 490 00:24:58,640 --> 00:25:00,720 Speaker 1: Thank you so much greatly, Gally appreciate it with the 491 00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:12,000 Speaker 1: energy aspects of it. 492 00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:14,760 Speaker 2: Today's front page. Put the terror chips down, give us 493 00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:15,679 Speaker 2: the headlines. What do you have? 494 00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,160 Speaker 8: All right? Since we're talking food, we might as well 495 00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:20,640 Speaker 8: go there. We're talking about the super Bowl. How much 496 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:23,520 Speaker 8: people are spending at home. This is from the National 497 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:26,640 Speaker 8: Retail Federation. Okay, Americans plan to spend seventeen point three 498 00:25:26,800 --> 00:25:30,520 Speaker 8: billion dollars on the super Bowl. That is up one 499 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:34,399 Speaker 8: billion from last year. Okay, eighty percent of that food 500 00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:37,720 Speaker 8: and drink. There's also apparel, decorations, things like that. But 501 00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,520 Speaker 8: why is it so much higher? Here's the thing. You 502 00:25:40,560 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 8: have this new demo coming in. You have the tailor 503 00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:45,439 Speaker 8: swift crowd coming in, so now they want to have 504 00:25:45,480 --> 00:25:48,639 Speaker 8: their own parties. They're pumping up spending as well, and 505 00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,760 Speaker 8: it's changing what people are eating. Two for the super Bowl. 506 00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:54,879 Speaker 8: So usually it's burgers, barbecue like that kind of thing. 507 00:25:55,480 --> 00:26:00,119 Speaker 8: Now the top three items wings, which is still up there, pizza, salsa, dip, 508 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,960 Speaker 8: and spreads because apparently women like that better. They think 509 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,360 Speaker 8: it's a staple. You gotta always have chips and salsa. 510 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:07,520 Speaker 3: There's a swift angle to everything. 511 00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:10,199 Speaker 8: There's a swift angle. Yes, a new demo. So the 512 00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:11,760 Speaker 8: younger ones are having their own parties. 513 00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 3: Boost she like in the locker room. 514 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:17,640 Speaker 2: I mean she's like up up for the cheapsis right? 515 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:20,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean jetting in from Tokyo. 516 00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:21,439 Speaker 2: Next. 517 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:24,400 Speaker 8: All right, here we go h World Cup Finals. Because 518 00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:29,159 Speaker 8: Paul you mentioned this yesterday, this article stood out for football. Yes, yes, 519 00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:31,639 Speaker 8: you like this. It's coming to met life as we know. 520 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:33,920 Speaker 8: But how did the fans get there? So you asked 521 00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:36,679 Speaker 8: this questions yesterday. New York Times says a couple of things. 522 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:38,840 Speaker 8: They have about two and a half years to figure 523 00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:41,240 Speaker 8: this out. But it was home to the Super Bowl 524 00:26:41,240 --> 00:26:44,320 Speaker 8: in twenty fourteen. If you remember that, traffic was a nightmare. 525 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:45,240 Speaker 3: It didn't work. 526 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:48,840 Speaker 8: Out very much. Yes, it did handle three Taylor Swift concerts. 527 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:49,280 Speaker 7: Okay. 528 00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:51,800 Speaker 8: But here's the thing with the metal lends no direct trains, 529 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:53,520 Speaker 8: like you mentioned to New York City's from the state 530 00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,440 Speaker 8: to the stadium. The nearest transit hub Secoccus Johnson that's 531 00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,360 Speaker 8: a few miles away, and it's been known to sit 532 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,640 Speaker 8: in traffic. Given you know, when you go in the turnpike, 533 00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:04,920 Speaker 8: you always gauge around when is the game? Who's playing 534 00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:07,760 Speaker 8: Jets Giants home? So that's the problem. Here's what they do, 535 00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,640 Speaker 8: State legislators. They allocated thirty five million dollars that you're 536 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:15,040 Speaker 8: going to design a dedicated transit system similar to like 537 00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,560 Speaker 8: the Disney World's bus system, and on game days, those 538 00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:20,880 Speaker 8: buses are going to travel along the back roads that's 539 00:27:20,960 --> 00:27:24,040 Speaker 8: currently closed. And it's going to dedicate lanes on the 540 00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:26,760 Speaker 8: New Jersey Ternpike to these buses too. 541 00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:29,760 Speaker 3: So that's that's a plan. But here's my plans for 542 00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,479 Speaker 3: a worldwide audience listening. This is from a native New 543 00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:35,359 Speaker 3: Jersey who goes to MetLife Stadium for Jets and Giants games. 544 00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 3: Just take New Jersey transit. I'm telling you, it's the 545 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 3: best way to go. It's yeah, it's ten minutes from 546 00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:44,200 Speaker 3: Manhattan to secaucas You switch to secaucas and the train 547 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:48,639 Speaker 3: is five minutes to MetLife Stadium. Yes, you have to 548 00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:50,879 Speaker 3: wait coming back a little bit, but you've already had 549 00:27:50,920 --> 00:27:52,400 Speaker 3: a couple of Right. 550 00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:53,640 Speaker 2: When when is the World Cup? 551 00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 3: Like, is it not like this two and a half years? 552 00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:59,400 Speaker 1: Pharaoh says, this is like a ginormous thing. He says, 553 00:27:59,480 --> 00:28:00,880 Speaker 1: America's not ready for this. 554 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:02,680 Speaker 3: It were coming from everywhere every year. 555 00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:04,719 Speaker 2: Yea, yeah, and it's like, I don't know, it's all 556 00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:05,359 Speaker 2: over the country. 557 00:28:05,400 --> 00:28:07,600 Speaker 8: I don't know if they mean all. 558 00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:09,720 Speaker 2: The time we're having breakfast or something. 559 00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:11,399 Speaker 1: You know, we're over the Saint We're you just putting 560 00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:13,879 Speaker 1: down a good morning, Gretto, keeper of the MX, and 561 00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,280 Speaker 1: you know I'm putting it down with John. We're just 562 00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:18,720 Speaker 1: building up a two hundred dollars tab. I don't even 563 00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:20,840 Speaker 1: listen to the football talk now. I mean, you know 564 00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:23,000 Speaker 1: it means but the World Cup's going to be genormous? 565 00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:24,920 Speaker 2: What else? This is great? What else do you have say? 566 00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,400 Speaker 8: Okay, Tom, you asked this question yesterday. So I found 567 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:31,880 Speaker 8: this out why paypalace strugglings out today as well? Yeah, 568 00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,920 Speaker 8: so the Financial Times did a look into this. Apparently 569 00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 8: there's a gen Z problem. Okay. The younger generation, they 570 00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,200 Speaker 8: like to pay with the click and their phone. You know, 571 00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,160 Speaker 8: they just like the click and tap and that's what 572 00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 8: they like. So they like Apple Pay, you know, they 573 00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,520 Speaker 8: like those autofill payments. They like buy now pay later 574 00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:52,200 Speaker 8: services like Affirm and after pay. They like that. Three 575 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,040 Speaker 8: quarters global iPhone users used Apple Pay in twenty two, 576 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,560 Speaker 8: nearly one third of them were between the ages of 577 00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:00,560 Speaker 8: eighteen to twenty nine. So you see that big group there. 578 00:29:00,880 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 8: Fifty prefer PayPal. Well they're forty five years and older, 579 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:06,720 Speaker 8: so that's a group and PayPal. I didn't realize. But 580 00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,680 Speaker 8: they do have Venmo. But the problem is that they 581 00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,960 Speaker 8: can't monetize it because you can't charge people to use 582 00:29:13,040 --> 00:29:14,480 Speaker 8: Venmo because Zell's for free. 583 00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:19,320 Speaker 1: So it's competitive that I mean, Brian Moinian has been 584 00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:22,640 Speaker 1: very clear on this Bank of American Earnings. The zel 585 00:29:22,720 --> 00:29:25,600 Speaker 1: growth they feature in their power point when you come 586 00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,040 Speaker 1: out with their earnings is right, this whole digital thing. 587 00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,880 Speaker 2: I'm still writing checks at home. I'm the last person. Really, Yeah, 588 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:34,720 Speaker 2: I dipped the quill in. I forgot, I got. 589 00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:37,360 Speaker 1: I got the old far checks for the blind. You 590 00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 1: know they're great, and you know you put only and 591 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:42,720 Speaker 1: you know that I'm not going to do Venmo to 592 00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:44,400 Speaker 1: write a tuition check, you know. 593 00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:46,880 Speaker 3: I mean they make it so easy to pay tuition. 594 00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:47,520 Speaker 2: Oh they do. 595 00:29:47,640 --> 00:29:47,800 Speaker 1: Now. 596 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:50,880 Speaker 3: Penn State University was the absolute best. They were on 597 00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:54,920 Speaker 3: par with Amazon. Literally one click and then twenty five 598 00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:57,760 Speaker 3: grand right out of your account. One click. 599 00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:01,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, they know what they're doing. It's just a whole 600 00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:05,000 Speaker 2: new world. After all, go go back and have some 601 00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:05,840 Speaker 2: vegetable chips. 602 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:09,760 Speaker 1: Taylor, Lisao, Lisa Mateo. 603 00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:11,000 Speaker 2: Thank you so much. 604 00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:14,640 Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best 605 00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:19,440 Speaker 1: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also 606 00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:23,560 Speaker 1: watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast 607 00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:27,720 Speaker 1: channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from 608 00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:31,000 Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in 609 00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,800 Speaker 1: New York City. 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